Strictly a Buyer's Agent

End of Summer Summary-Neighborhoods Where the Market Improved, Worsened and Stayed the Same

Judy Thompson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:46:23 -0500

This analysis shows how the housing market fared from May through September 2009 in the 19 neighborhoods and zip codes featured in West U Real Estate.com.


		Months	Months
		Inventory	Inventory
		Available	Available
Market Worsened May-Sept '09		1-May	25-Sep	% Change
77030	Southgate area	9	14	+56%
77079	Energy Corridor area	4	6	+50%
77098	Montrose/Upper Kirby area	9	13	+44%
77019	River Oaks area	12	15	+25%
77096	Meyerland area	4	5	+25%
77006, 98	Rice U area	11	13	+18%
77007	Memorial Park area	7	8	+14%
77056	Tanglewood area	14	15	+7%

Market Improved May-Sept '09
77005	West U area	12	9	-25%
77063	Woodlake area	10	8	-20%
77401	Bellaire	12	10	-17%
77018	Garden Oaks area	6	5	-17%
77008	Heights area	8	7	-13%
77057	Briargrove area	12	11	-8%

No Change May-Sept '09
77035	Westbury area	4	4
77006	Museum/Montrose area	8	8
77009	Woodland Heights area	8	8
77024	Memorial area	12	12
77027	Afton Oaks area	16	16

Introducing a New Chart . . . Plus Some Advice from a SmartMoney Columnist

Judy Thompson — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:01:37 -0500

In May of this year I realized I had no analysis that would pinpoint when the local housing market (or at least the 19 zip codes I concentrate on) began to show improvement. So I created a new chart that tracks the average of the weighted averages of the number of months inventory in each zip code. I have watched it since May and debuted it last week. You can see it here.

Last week the Wall Street Journal featured an article by James Stewart of SmartMoney who noted that the last S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index of real-estate values increased this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years. I think Case-Shiller is the most reliable of the statistics because it compares sales of the same house over time. Stewart also advises that he cannot imagine a better time to buy than now. You can read his article here.

“It appears we are at the bottom of the housing market in most Texas cities,”

Judy Thompson — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 15:17:31 -0500

said Mark Dotzour, Real Estate Center Director at Texas A & M after reviewing the state’s latest home sale numbers. You can read more here:

http://recenter.tamu.edu/recon/RECON.asp?date=8/14/2009

West U, Bellaire Show Improvement

Judy Thompson — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:08:28 -0500

This end-of-July post brings a some good news nationally and locally for the housing market. The recent Case-Shiller Price Index showed that prices were up in eight cities nationally (they don't do Houston) and both West U and Bellaire have bounced back from Buyer's Markets in the weighted averages. Both are now Slightly Strong (gray) markets. See more here.

In May I began a new analysis, the average of the weighted averages, so I would know for certain when the market begins to change. Right now it is hovering around ten months and not declining. When I see some movement I'll do statistical analysis on the data and publish it when the time is right.

OMG There's Gray in Westbury . . .

Judy Thompson — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:42:06 -0500

The Westbury area (zip 77035) is located just outside the 610 loop and offers affordable houses (under $400K) and an easy commute to the Med Center. It is almost always a strong seller's market but today a bit of gray showed up in the $300K price range, and it is now a slightly strong market. The chart is here.

The news since my last blog has not been positive about the market - the Southgate area (77030) went RED in inventory, becoming a buyer's market in the weighted average. The chart is here.

The averages at the bottom of my big chart now have five price ranges as buyer's markets with two more adjacent price ranges on the verge. The chart is here.

On April 30 I saw some improvement in the market and began to think that we had reached the bottom. How would I know if we had? I deveoped a new analysis that charts the movement of the average of the weighted averages each Friday. I'm not ready to publish it yet, but just this week the average of the weighted averages rose from 9 to 10. So I was wrong on April 30 when I told a few people (fewer than 5!) that maybe we had reached the bottom. I won't make that mistake again and will watch my new indicator closely. I'll publish it when the time is right.

One bright spot was that the Memorial area bounced back from RED status to GRAY, now a slightly soft market. The chart is here.

As a agent who represents buyers only, I do like market conditions where buyers have leverage. But market conditions that result from a faltering economy is a different matter. We all want the housing market to recover soon and lead us out of recession.

River Oaks Area (77019) Goes RED in Inventory

Judy Thompson — Tue, 05 May 2009 09:26:33 -0500

Today's market condition update shows the River Oaks area (77019) going RED in the weighted average, becoming a buyer's market. It joins Afton Oaks, West U, Tanglewood, Briargrove, Memorial and Bellaire in the buyer's market weighted average. See the chart here.

Bellaire goes RED in Inventory

Judy Thompson — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 09:15:34 -0500

Today's market condition update shows Bellaire (77401) going RED in the weighted average, becoming a buyer's market. It joins Afton Oaks, West U, Tanglewood, Briargrove, and Memorial in the buyer's market weighted average. See the chart here.

The Contrarion 77007 Surprises Again

Judy Thompson — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 08:39:17 -0500

When times were great for inner-loop Houston single-family real estate they were not as great for the Memorial Park area (77007), which historically (since 2004) just could not get to the magic "SELLER"S MKT" designation. But in late 2008 they did achieve it and have recently gotten there again, in total contrast to what has happened to the other inner-loop neighborhoods in this time of recession. Way to go 77007! I've always rooted for you . . .

The Zip Code Feeling the Most Pain is . . . .

Judy Thompson — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 09:05:05 -0500

definitely 77027, the Afton Oaks area. Today's market condition update shows six of its eight price ranges to be RED in inventory, a buyer's market. This is happening at the high end, a result of so much redevelopment during the past decade. This zip code also experienced the highest appreciation in recent years in price per square foot paid so you might say they experienced a slight "bubble" that is now bursting. See more here about 77027 market conditions and appreciation.

Memorial Area (77024) Goes RED in Inventory

Judy Thompson — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 08:39:41 -0500

Today's market condition update shows the Memorial area (77024) going RED in the weighted average. Inventories are stacking up at the high end where the majority of homes are sold in Memorial. The see more, click here.