OK, if you missed the first post in this series, find it here.

And the same caveats apply as to my sense of the world.

So the first thing that isn’t changing but some say they are:

1. Megachurches are declining. Not happening.  First let’s define megachurches as those with attendance of 2000 or more in a weekend. Second, some megachurches are declining in attendance but overall many more are going up. PLUS we still have new megachurches we are adding every week to our database as they rise above that artificial attendance mark. The number of megachurches per million of population continues to rise. What happens is that some commentators look at some megachurches of the past era and say “look –they are declining” and some are. But by and large that movement is still growing.
2. The House Church is Expanding Rapidly in America – my sense is that there has been a slight increase in that number as a percentage of population, but not a dramatic increase. There are more books being published and more interest but I am not sure I see a change in behavior. Don’t get me wrong, I am very pro simple/organic church. I want to see many more, but I don’t think that number is moving that dramatically. (and in a future blog post I will cover some of the great books being released by this movement from my friend Frank Viola as well as Tony and Felicity Dale)
3. Urban or Exurban – The Richard Florida “people are moving into urban areas to be cool” vs Joel Kotkin “watch the exurbs” debate. More people are moving to suburbs and exurbs than vice versa. Sure, some urban core areas are growing but the growth rates are much, much less than the other regions. For churches, that means new church development is still going to be suburban and exurban.
4. Driving habits and road building  - some say “people are driving less and in the future we aren’t going to be able to build all these roads.” I get it at a policy level politically, but no real evidence that people are driving less. Follow the stimulus money. A lot went to road building. We may not have a coherent national policy on transportation for a long while.
5. Seminaries – A few folks are making some valiant efforts but the nature of those institutions is not to change quickly. So change in that arena is going to be glacial in pace. Plus full time equivalency numbers in all seminaries broadly seems to be fairly static. While a lot seems to be moving on line and new formats, the core seems to be fairly static.
6. Denominational bodies  - I see lots of talk, lots of rebranding, little real change. Like seminaries, these bodies are not designed to change quickly. That is not a good or a bad thing. All I am saying is when I hear “look how these bodies are changing” I just say – huh? I am all for healthy seminaries and healthy denominations, I just don’t see a lot of change.
7. “The Nones” – Lots of talk about the religious identification survey and the rise of the Nones. I have done some breakdown of those numbers and my bottom line: Are more people claiming no affiliation with any religion. Yes. But there are some other facts in there that are driving it beside normal religious ones. And the number really changed in the 90s, not the current decade. Though there was a post last week from Brad Wilcox that I think is interesting in this arena. But bottom line, there are still lots of folks that "believe in God" and want to identify with a tradition, but aren't. If I were a church leader I would be more concerned about that group than the "Nones."

OK, as before, feel free to have your own opinion and express it below, I will be interested in reading it.

Dave Travis

Managing Director

Leadership Network

(Long Post Warning)

This is the first part of my speech to the Cornerstone Knowledge Network. The speech was in four parts:

Things that ARE changing in the Church World

Things that AREN’T changing but some say they are

Things that AREN’T CHANGING YET but I think are coming

Things that SHOULD BE changing but don’t seem to be happening

Some caveats:

One, this is all my opinion based on my keyhole view of the world. Feel free to disagree.

My key hole that I see through involves lots of leaders of very large churches in US (and a few in Europe). The avg size for our clients is around 3700 in weekly attendance.

I believe that the things these churches deal with often set the tone and direction for other churches (for better or worse). So some will read my observations and say “that doesn’t apply to my church.” Fine by me. You may assign a particular point to another bucket. Fine with me.

My attempt with these lists were to help these business leaders whose livelihoods depend on working with churches be better equipped to deal with their challenges.

And part of this reflection is based on my comparisons to some notes from conversations with Senior Pastors of large churches 15 years ago. So they are “what has changed.”

So, Things that I think ARE CHANGING:

I am just going to touch on them here and if demand is great enough write a small booklet or a blog post on each one.

1. The rise of Multi Site churches – multi site changes everything as we say.
2. Social Media penetration – I read that 85% of Americans aged 18-29 logged onto at least on

   on
   

   e social media site in August 2009. That’s one month not year to date. I think widespread
   adoption of this communication medium changed how we perceive leadership so I think it changes churches.

3. Internet Campuses – They’re here and they are about to be “in a box” so any size church can have one if the want. For some this will be a fad but for others this is going to be a big part of their reaching strategy going forward.

4. Growth of Teaching Teams – that is a big, accepted change from when I joined
   Leadership Network almost 15 years ago. It’s almost like everyone wants to do it now while they may not know quite how to do it.
5. New Church Development by young 20/30s. People say this generation is not going to church. They are. They aren’t going to existing churches, they are flooding some new churches.
6. Online giving – this number continues to rise and some churches in Europe tell me that they get 80% of their giving through this channel. That is way above US. So I think eventually the number will rise. They tend to get it by automated draft by the way. Probably the most consistent way to get it.
7. The iPhone revolution of communications. Probably more accurately called the smartphone revolution with others now coming on market. How will we communicate in the future – lots being driven via these hand held devices. Pay attention to that.
8. Big change – Availability of appreciated stock . So what does that matter. Lots of gifts in the past came through that type of giving. When it ain’t around no more its hard to build an extravagant building. Might be a good thing.
9. Availability of home equity. Not as much as there used to be. Plus is that it is driving folks to be more fiscally responsible. My guess is that it might have some short term affects on churches in subtle ways.
10. More thinking of church “beyond the walls”. In Leadership Network language that means “Externally Focused Churches” being the best church FOR your community. (We have lots on this one)
11. Lots more multi racial churches (though perhaps not multi cultural churches). We have been tracking these numbers for some time. What this means? Well if you are in the building and advisement industry, (like these people are ) it means that the committee or team you are working with may have different assumptions within their own team to be worked through.
12. Mobility of Americans – I recently read how that total percentages were down. I attribute mobility factors as a big reason for megachurch attraction. If people aren’t moving at least 10 miles away as much, they tend to stay in their same patterns.
13. The book/magazine/church conference business – Anything print seems to be suffering so there is a big restructuring going on there. Also in the church conference business, there are going to be a few winners, a few that can survive and a lot that go under. So a restructuring there as well.

OK – that was the highlights of my first list.

Any to add?

Some may actually be on one of my other lists but I would love to hear your thoughts. Just hit the old comments button and send them in.

Dave Travis

Managing Director

Leadership Network

If you’re anywhere near San Diego this week, I encourage you to attend the National Outreach Convention, where the theme is Shine Bright. If you can’t get there, follow it live at http://www.nationaloutreachconvention.com/. Many good friends are speaking there, including Geoff Surratt and Greg Ligon doing a presentation from our recently released book, Multi-Site Church Roadtrip. 

I try to read Outreach magazine cover to cover each issue because I need a lot of help, as do most church leaders, in reaching out with the life-changing good news about Jesus. It’s so much easier to think about my own needs than about those who have spiritual hunger, but haven’t found the path.

Annual “Top 100” Issue

I especially enjoy the way Outreach magazine does an annual “top 100” issue, always probing for what kind of outreach these churches are doing that has fostered the growth that God has sent their way.

People have asked my take on the “top 100” so here it is. The relevant magazine articles (free) and actual lists (nominal cost) are both available at http://www.outreachmagazine.com.

1. Kudos on verifications. Ed Stetzer of LifeWay Research led a massive effort of contacting 8,000 churches, going to great lengths to confirm data self-reported by pastors, staff or church officers. In previous years some of the entries have had major problems, and this year’s promises a higher level of accuracy. Nice work, teams at LifeWay and Outreach!

2. Missing churches are the elephant in the room. Churches don’t participant in the list for various reasons: they didn’t open the survey or their response process fell through the cracks. Others do not like church ranking lists. Others don’t want to reveal attendance data. Too often when a church declines, they don’t want people to know about it so they avoid participating. (A few that decline come up instead with a new way of counting so that they’re still shown to be gaining.)

A helpful blog by Kent Shaffer at http://churchrelevance.com/100-largest-churches-in-america-for-2009/ compares “top 100” lists for recent years, highlighting churches that “disappeared” in various years. Many disappear simply because they didn’t participate that year. A couple had grossly over-reported their numbers and were caught doing so.

Even so, a bunch of large churches have never participated. Among those with attendances over 10,000 are:

• Calvary Chapel of Costa Mesa, Santa Ana, CA, where Chuck Smith Sr. is pastor, www.calvarychapelcostamesa.org.

• Harvest Christian Fellowship, Riverside, CA, where Greg Laurie is pastor, www.harvest.org/church

• Cornerstone Church, San Antonio, TX, where John Hagee is pastor, www.sacornerstone.com

• Greater Saint Stephen Full Gospel Baptist, New Orleans, LA and Atlanta, GA, where Paul and Debra Morton are pastors, www.greaterststephenfgbc.org.

3. Church names tend to be unique and sound non-denominational. The first person to create a “top 100” list was Elmer Towns in 1968 (photo at right, still going strong at Liberty University), publishing it annually in Christian Life magazine, occasionally in the Sword of the Lord newspaper, and in various books he authored starting in 1969 with The Ten Largest Sunday Schools and What Makes Them Grow (Baker). Back then, Sunday school attendance was generally much higher than worship attendance, so the lists focused on Sunday school. (Church attendance overtook Sunday school attendance in about 1971.) Looking over those long-ago lists, it seems that every other church was named First Baptist, since 9 of the 10 in the first list were Baptist. Others in the lineup included churches with names like Second Presbyterian or Calvary Temple. All that to say, denominational labels were prominent and individualistic names were not.

In today’s line-up of large churches, most have distinctive names: Lakewood, LifeChurch, Willow Creek, North Point, Saddleback, Southeast Christian, and Woodlands, just to name a few.

Just a curiosity: There’s an Arkansas congregation that started in 1951, which began an incredible growth spurt under Pastor Shannon O’Dell beginning in 2003, and renaming itself in 2006 as Brand New Church. Question: with a name like that, will it rename itself after 10, 20 or 30 years? (Just kidding, Pastor Shannon O’Dell is doing a super job there, releasing a book in early 2010 named Transforming Church in Rural America.)

Plus only 15 of the Outreach 100 have a denominational tag in their church name, such as Baptist, Presbyterian, Lutheran, or Assemblies of God, although 53 of the 100 identify themselves as part of a denomination. Yet according to research I’ve done with Scott Thumma of the Hartford Institute for Religion Research, available at www.leadnet.org/megachurch, two thirds of megachurches belong to a formational national denomination. As examples, Saddleback and Lake Pointe are Southern Baptist, and LifeChurch is part of the Evangelical Covenant Church denomination, even though none of them add their denomination to their church name.

4. Younger churches are the norm, but there are exceptions. In Outreach’s list of 100 largest churches, the average year founded is 1973. The oldest founding date in the list is 1872 for First A.M.E. Church Los Angeles; the youngest church on the list is Community of Faith, Cypress, TX, founded in 2002. According to Scott’s and my megachurch research, the average founding date for all megachurches is 1959 with the oldest being The Falls Church, just outside Washington, D.C., an Episcopal congregation started in 1734.

5. Multi-site popularity is growing, especially among larger churches. The leaders in terms of multiple locations are LifeChurch with 13, Seacoast with 12, City Church, Kirkland with 11, and Covenant Church Carrollton with 10. According to the “Changes in American Megachurches” document Scott Thumma and I co-wrote (available at www.leadnet.org/megachurch), the explosive growth of multi-site is especially so among the largest churches:

• 35% multi-site for attendances of 2,000-2,999

• 48% multisite attendances of 3,000-4,999

• 69% for multisite attendances of 5,000-7,999

• an amazing 86% for multisite attendances of 8,000 and larger.

Interestingly, the Outreach magazine top 100 church with the most sites (29) is Brentwood Baptist, Brentwood, TN, which has an amazing deaf congregation ministry, and it’s the deaf ministry that has all these sites [http://www.christiantelegraph.com/issue6882.html]. The parent church is just going to its second site in January 2010. Photo, left, shows special sanctuary where transducers were used for the floating floor and the seats to allow deaf worshippers to feel the vibration of the drum machine, the church's primary instrument of praise.

6. Finally an emphasis on outstanding culturally relevant music seems to positively influence a church’s growth. The Outreach write-ups noted the American Idol finalist who serves as worship leader in one fast-growing church. In fact, that’s not unusual. Lots of American Idol contestants are worship leaders in their churches. Further, some large-church senior pastors are terrific singers, some like Grammy winner Paul Morton at www.greaterststephenfgbc.org or Marvin Winans in Detroit [www.perfectingchurch.org/]. What would worship at Brooklyn Tabernacle be without its award-winning choir or at Lakewood without musicians Marcos Witt and Israel Houghton? Plus it’s wonderful to know that Dave Crowder, Chris Tomlin and many other popular musicians are worship leaders in their local churches. I strongly suspect such musicians add to a church’s attractional draw. It will be interesting to watch how fast the Atlanta church will grow when it launches shortly with leadership from Matt Redman, Chris Tomlin and Louie Giglio.

Your Take?

That’s my read of the list. What other trends do YOU notice in the “top 100” lists? Please add your comments below.

Warren Bird, Ph.D., is Research Director at Leadership Network, and co-author of 21 books on various aspects of church health and innovation.

As part of speaking week last week I drove up to

Charlotte

They wanted me to come riff about things I see as significant changes from my seat at Leadership Network. I did, and I will tell you what I told them in later installments.

But I did want to talk about the value of networks like Cornerstone.

Cornerstone is a network of Church Service Companies. You can check out their web site here to see the various partners. The founders were two construction firms that are based close to one another, compete with one another, but were great friends. They figured that it is better to learn together to better serve churches, so they formed a network of friends and companies who are all in it to both serve churches.

They host several conferences around the country about Building and Planning for Churches. (you can find all that on their site here) But several times a year they gather leaders of the various companies to meet and talk about what each is seeing in their industry.  I don’t think they have formal referral systems for their businesses, but they are more about sharing with each other so they can all be better.

In their case they also partner with Christianity Today in the Building Church Leaders resources to help spread what they are learning.

As dinner was ending Ed Bahler invited the participants who are members of CKN to share what the network had meant to them in 2009. Most shared some of the great things they had learned during the year from other members.

I reflected on this and compared it to our own work at Leadership Network.

Leadership Network is very clearly focused on churches. We convene high level conversations with high level church leaders to explore, establish connections and encourage multiplication.

We have multiple programs that do this, but it is really about convening those crucial conversations.

My role with CKN that night was to throw a few brain bombs into the group to get them to think in new ways. I had fun teasing some things and being overly rambunctious at points. Bombast and big ideas at my best. Half truths and conjecture at my worst. But that’s what they wanted. They wanted to dialog with each other about these issues affecting the church.

It was great fun for me of course and I appreciated the invitation.

(Full disclosure: CKN and a few of their member companies have sponsored Leadership Network things in the past)

But my point of this post is: Who is in your own network that forces you to think differently and creatively about what is happening now and in the future?

These companies have formed their own network to do that and it is helping them.

Have you?

From time to time in this space and on our enewsletters and other publications you will read about networks we are constantly forming. If one of those fits you, or you think it might, we want to hear from you.

So just hit the email or twitter and tell us.

Dave Travis

Managing Director

Leadership Network

But the first group was a class of about 50 seminarians. I was invited by one of my former professors, a man who unbeknown to him, turned my life toward what I do now.

One of the books we read in his class was Kennon L. Callahan's Twelve Keys to an Effective Church, one of the solid "church growth" books of its era. It's principles still hold up fairly well.

But almost twenty years ago now, I read Callahan's follow up entitled: Effective Church Leadership.

I explained to the class that there are three statements that lead the first three chapters of the book (The first line of each chapter) that I think perfectly describe the difference in leadership for the past 20 years and will continue to define leadership into the future.

Callahan was describing the American church leadership and the American scene here in these statements. Remember, he wrote these 20 years ago.

Chapter 1. "The day of the professional minister is over. The day of the missionary pastor has come." (p3)

Chapter 2. "The day of the church culture is over. The day of the mission field has come."p13

Chapter 3. "The day of the local church is over. The day of the mission outpost has come." p22

From 1990 to 1996 in my former leadership role in a denomination I looked through these lenses. As I reflect on the past 15 years of my work at Leadership Network I have looked through those lenses
and have come to realize that those taking new kingdom ground are living into those realities.

Those who are not looking through these lenses are frustrated and defeated.

So when people ask me about a particular church, I always hold in my head these statements and ask myself: Are they living into these realities?

How about you?

Dave Travis
Managing Director
Leadership Network