TheTucsonFoothills

then and now in the Tucson Foothills

2012-02-24T11:07:50-07:00

Writing about home sales in the Tucson Foothills last February (what’s selling) I said;

in the last 30 days 56 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(6 foreclosures in that group)

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (274 remain for sale) = 6.5 months inventory
10 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (123 for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (89 for sale) = 22.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $483,914/$364,000/$164 sf

flash forward to today and,

in the last 30 days 53 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(and 6 foreclosures this year too) honest

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (195 remain for sale) = 4.6 months inventory
7 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (87 remain for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (74 remain for sale) = 18.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $476,781/$359,850/$164 sf

So déjà vu. Other than a few bucks here and a few bucks there the numbers are incredibly similar, if not identical, from then to now.

But what has changed in the last year, and it is significant, is the number of homes in contract & for sale last February vs. today.

Last Feb there were 484 single family homes for sale and 82 in contract -
today there are 351 for sale and 139 in contract, see yesterday’s post > curious about what’s in contract

That’s 27% fewer homes for sale along with a 69% increase in demand.
That’s not chickenfeed.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

curious about whats in contract

2012-02-23T12:08:15-07:00

Me too. Because looking at what’s in contract is the clearest sign of where the market is right now – and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market.

Overall, there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 351 for sale, 139 in contract = 39% of the available inventory in contract. A very healthy number.
(Last month it was 105 in contract vs. 364 for sale for 28% of inventory in contract)

But also, as was true last month and has been for some time, most the action is still huddled at the lower end of the market. Though $600 to $999 has really perked up.

Here’s what it looks like by price range;

111 in contract at $0 to $599,999
(with 190 for sale = 58% of available inventory in contract. that’s HUGE)

19 at $600,000 to $999,999
(with 87 for sale = 22% of inventory in contract)

6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
(32 for sale = 19% of inventory in contract)

3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
(21 for sale = 14% of inventory in contract)

0 at $2,000,000 and up
(21 for sale and nothing in contract = nothing)

Overall, and in 3 of the 5 price ranges, the ratio of homes in contract/homes for sale is stronger now than it was last month > what’s in contract < because demand has increased and supply has decreased and PS- we are at the lowest inventory in YEARS

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

Foothills 2 is 2 for 2

2012-02-22T17:38:23-07:00

and it’s lucky number 13, too

Two weeks ago I mentioned that 3632 E Windy Point Drive, listed at $1,195,000, went to contract in 13 days - (dead wrong)

And now 6941 N FINGER ROCK Place, listed just 13 days ago at $895,000, is also in contract.

6941 N FINGER ROCK Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

Foreclosures climbed in January + other cheerful news

2012-02-22T13:23:30-07:00

From CNNMoney.com

Foreclosures climbed in January
Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.

The number of homes hit with a notice of default, auction sale, bank repossession or some other foreclosure filing in January rose 3% since December, but it was still significantly lower than it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

Home prices at lowest point in more than 10 years
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median home price in January fell 2% from December to $154,700. That's the lowest price reading since November 2001, before the run-up in home prices that became known as the housing bubble.

Multi-million dollar foreclosures
Even these mega-mansions in some of America's wealthiest neighborhoods are not immune to the housing crisis. Duh

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

you can ask whatever you want

2012-02-22T12:17:31-07:00

7151 N Lemmon Rock Place sold for $756 in 06 and for $400k today – as a short sale.
That’s a steeper drop (- 47%) than that experienced by many other homes in similar circumstances.

Could it have something to do with rolling the dice in 08 and listing it for $830k after paying $756k at the tippy-top.

7151 N Lemmon Rock Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

PS- even Zillow thought they should get more, they zestimated it at $440.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

when the right one comes along

2012-02-21T16:02:53-07:00

listed just 15 days ago at $700k 6030 N Camino Escalante is already spoken for

6030 N Camino Escalante Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
and find the one that’s right for you

this looks awfully good

2012-02-21T11:33:56-07:00

7040 N Camino Sin Vacas, Tucson, AZ, 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

it last sold in June 08 for $855,000 and is listed today for $689,000, right out of the chute.

PS- this is not in the gated community of Sin Vacas – it’s one block south of it.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

at long last

2012-02-21T10:36:57-07:00

3731 E Sumo Septimo is in contract,

It’s been around and I mentioned it a few times over the years, most recently here >
a long way from where it started

3731 E Sumo Septimo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

talk about lowballing

2012-02-20T16:40:06-07:00

Zillow’s zestimate for 6820 N Los Leones Drive, a new spec in Skyline CC, is $1,010,800.

Meanwhile Los Leones sold today for $1,525,000.

6820 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

zestimates vs. real world prices

2012-02-20T13:11:03-07:00

The other day I mentioned that I’d recently seen some improvement in the accuracy of Zillow’s zestimates for homes in the Tucson Foothills, I said - they’ve made some real progress and sharpened their game a bit. The zestimates are still hit or miss, but more often it’s closer to a hit than to a miss.

OK, so let’s cut to the chase and look at the actual sale prices vs. zestimates and see how on or off target zestimates really are at predicting home values in the foothills.

The following are all the single family homes (28) that sold in the foothills (through the Tucson MLS) from Feb 1 to Feb 19.
( I put a ** next to those I consider to be on target, i.e. within about 5 or 6% of actual sale price)

But you may see it differently and feel that I’m being too generous or too stingy with the **’s,
if so, please, we would love to hear about it.

Address	SOLD $$	Zestimate $$
4521 N Rocky Creek Circle	$182,000	$189,100 **
6100 E River Road	$225,000	$234,800 **
560 E Agave Drive	$245,000	$272,700 **
5311 N Via Condesa	$248,000	$289,900
3331 N Riverbend Circle West	$295,000	$282,400 **
7572 E Placita De La Prosa	$255,000	$311,100
4819 N Via Sonrisa	$305,000	$296,400 **
6084 N Black Bear Loop	$310,000	$269,400
4491 E River Oak Trail	$325,000	$377,800
6615 N Donna Beatrix	$289,000	$363,900
5440 N Ventana Vista Road	$345,000	$341,800 **
5130 N Pelican River Way	$368,000	$365,300 **
5498 N Crescent Ridge Drive	$358,000	$337,300 **
7065 E Townsend Place	$350,000	$342,500 **
5885 E Calle Val	$365,000	$381,300 **
5847 N Golden Eagle Drive	$380,000	$423,900
5862 E Paseo Cimarron	$420,000	$406,900 **
5132 E Camino Alisa	$475,000	$538,100
6860 N Solaz Primero	$450,000	$489,500
7308 N Camino Sin Vacas	$525,000	$506,600 **
4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road	$554,500	$215,200 (-**)
4264 N Placita De Sandra	$600,000	$543,300
5759 N Campbell	$575,000	$544,900 **
2680 E Calle Los Altos	$708,000	$677,100 **
6079 E Red Cardinal Place	$775,000	$667,800
4455 E Coronado Drive	$1,035,000	$1,015,100 **
6070 N Desert Sun Court	$1,075,000	$1,004,800 **
3208 E Via Palomita	$1,750,000	$1,649,300 **

There are 28 homes listed and I **’d 17 of them as being on target. And a few are practically bulls eyes. That’s an improvement from where they were in the past.

But also notice that, at up to about $500k, when they miss the target, they often miss it by overshooting the actual sale price – in effect saying they “think” those houses are worth more. While at above $500k they’ve lowballed the actual sale price every time. ??

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Foothills home

TheTucsonFoothills

then and now in the Tucson Foothills

curious about whats in contract

Foothills 2 is 2 for 2

Foreclosures climbed in January + other cheerful news

Foreclosures climbed in January Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.

you can ask whatever you want

when the right one comes along

this looks awfully good

at long last

talk about lowballing

zestimates vs. real world prices

Foreclosures climbed in January
Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.