TheTucsonFoothills

Robert Shiller asks, where are we going?

2010-01-01T12:56:49-07:00

A Housing Double-Dip?

Who knows what’ll happen, like Robert Shiller said, we’ll have to wait and see. But maybe this year, the National Association of Realtors® will finally realize that people have other and better sources of information than the shills the NAR shamelessly parades around trying to promote their own agenda.

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ready or not, here are the almost final numbers

2009-12-31T13:24:33-07:00

There are likely to be a few stragglers, and I’ll revise as they drift in, but meanwhile, here’s a snapshot of home sales in the Tucson foothills for 2009.

Total Sold – 514 single family homes/ (421 currently for sale)
Average Sold price - $535,606
Median Sold price - $440,000
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $275,301,303

By price range;
$0-$499,999
315 Sold
158 currently for sale, or about a 6 month supply

$500,000 - $999,999
161 Sold
151 currently for sale, an 11 month supply

$1,000,000 & up
38 Sold
112 currently for sale, a 35 month supply

looking back, in 2008;

Total Sold – 521 (50 sold at $1.0 & up)
Average Sold price - $605,142
Median Sold price - $512,000
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $315,279,210

in 2007;

Total Sold – 609 (89 sold at $1.0 & up)
Average Sold price - $675,168
Median Sold price - $540,000
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $411,177,023

in 2006;

Total Sold – 707 (116 sold at $1.0 & Up)
Average Sold price - $699,236
Median Sold price - $570,000
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $494,359,860

When I reported the final numbers last year, as a consoling thought I said something about, … it can only get better next year.

aha. Cheers, Happy New Year!

taking their licks at the high-end

2009-12-30T11:18:07-07:00

7063 N Mission Hill Ln in Skyline Country Club sold for $815,000 in 2000. It was then updated, by Robinson & Shades, no less, and put back on the market in mid 2007 for $1,750,000. (Meanwhile, it had been re-mortgaged in late 06 for $1,540,000 - to pay for the updating? or maybe just a cash advance on the big sale)

But no big sale, so the price was reduced in dribs and drabs until late this spring when it dropped to $1,200,000, as short sale, and immediately went to contract. It sold today for $1,100,000 ($273/sf). I’d say the buyers should be pleased.
Built 1981/4.5 acres/4028 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/1 story/way up top in Skyline, bordering the Coronado National Forest.

I have no idea what was spent on the updating, but Robinson & Shades, which is no longer Robinson & Shades, did not come cheap.

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And 7390 N Cobblestone Rd, in Cobblestone, sold for $1,318,000 in May 07 – and was back on the market in January 09 for $1,395,000.

But no one bit, so it dropped to $1,250,000, then to $1,195,000, and someone bit and it’s now in contract. So $150,000 or so, off the top.

But hey, that’s the market.

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a surprising sale in the $9s

2009-12-29T13:04:21-07:00

4620 N Camino Gacela, listed for $985,000, sold today for $955,000 ($237/sf) after just 25 days on the market. It looks like a beautiful house, but when it was listed in November I was skeptical and wondered out loud how they’d manage to get it sold, even if they did find a willing and able buyer. see what happened today)

Why, because Cmo Gacela is in Heatherwood Hills, where the price of homes, for sale and sold, is appreciably less than the high $9’s. And given the super cautious, squeaky tight lending/appraisal standards that we’re seeing, I couldn’t imagine how it could appraise. But maybe the buyers put down a big chunk of cash, like $500k or more. That would do it.

Going back 4 years, the next highest sale in Heatherwood Hills was $705,000, and that was in June 06. Then one at $630, a few in the $5’s and everything else in the $4’s & $3’s.
Appraise or not, you look at those figures and you have to ask, why would someone plunk down $955k. 3 years ago maybe, but today,

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Just Sold

2009-12-28T20:29:32-07:00

We all get them, even me, those cheerful postcards that announce,

Hi neighbor,

I Just Sold a home at 123 Happy Trails

Tucson, Az 8518

I got one just like that today. And hey, that’s what Realtors® do,
and I used to do it too. If you’re a listing agent, it’s how you get your name around the neighborhood.

But not content to leave well enough alone, this one went on to say,

For fast results, work with an agent who

knows how to get the job done.

OK, sure. Except that I know, and so does everyone else in the neighborhood - because the damn For Sale signs have been out there long enough to become a fixture - that the house at 123 Happy Trails was on the market for at least a year before it sold.

And they wonder why they don’t get no respect.

faint signs of life at the upper end

2009-12-28T18:41:39-07:00

Cat 10 strikes again, but again, at under a million.
4700 N Camino Sumo, on the market since January and first listed for $1,050,000, went to contract today listed at $890,000 ($227/sf).
This will be the 5th sale in Cat 10 for 2009 and that’s delightful.
But all 5 are under a million$ and that leaves 15 for sale in Cat 10, all over a million$$$, from $1.0 to $2.65.

And 7441 N Moon Spirit Ln in Cobblestone, 6 months on the market, and no price reductions, listed for $1,350,000 ($360/sf) is reported under contract today.

also,

They seem to be plugging away to find the right price, and maybe a buyer too, over at 5905 N Camino Escalante. An attractive 2007 built mud adobe, it had it’s 4th price cut today in just 84 days on the market –today going from $1,399,000 to $1,285,000 ($264/sf). Just 84 days ago it was 1st offered at $1,625,000.

and 2 specs,

6750 E Tarahumara Tr went from $1,325,000 to $1,275,000, now a mere $319/sf. This is on unsubdivided land somewhere west of Kolb off Territory Dr.

+ 6155 N Whaleback Pl, in Ventana CC, went from $1,850,000 to $1,750,000, or $355/sf. Worth noting - on the market for 259 days and this is the first price cut.

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more road kill

2009-12-28T13:15:34-07:00

6151 N Cerrada Tolsa, which abuts Campbell Ave just a little south of Skyline, finally sold today.

For sale since May 08, and ignoring the fact that it sat next to Campbell and, I guess, hoping everyone else would too, it was listed for $979,000 and sold today for $543,000.

Quite a few out of town buyers called me about this house; because it looked charming and appeared to have good mountain views, which it didn’t, unless you climbed a flagpole.

But when I told them about Campbell, that was the end of that. Who wants to pay big bucks to live on Campbell.

the price bar takes another hit

2009-12-28T11:42:21-07:00

5280 E Mission Hill Dr left the market in May after failing to sell at $2.9, $2.2 and $1.850. It’s back today at $1,500,000 and at that price, it can’t, won’t last.

It’s one of my favorites, a Spanish Colonial, top quality masonry construction by Mike Wachs, simple impeccable details, in Skyline CC, on one of the very best city view lots,

It’s new construction, custom built 2007 and the owner has never occupied it- 4079sf/3 Beds/4 Baths/Library/1.1 acre.
I mentioned it last winter when it was $2.2 and, aside from the price, called it my new fav. At $1.5 it stands way out from the crowd.

see it here> 5280 E Mission Hill Dr

Given the state of the high-end market it may seem like I’m blowing smoke to say it can’t, won’t last. But I betcha it won’t.

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if its happening at all, its almost all at the low end

2009-12-28T08:53:18-07:00

in the last 10 days we’ve had,

4 new listings, @ $355,000, $649,000, $1,495,000 (what looks to be an attractively priced newer home in the Summit) & $2,495,000-
a re-listed French chateau in Skyline CC

12 price reductions, with all but one at well under a million, that one, the enormous spec/foreclosure on Camino Blanco

10 homes went to contract, 9 of them listed from $295,000 to $419,000 and one at $639,900. What else is new.

7 sold, 2 in the high 9’s, the remaining 5 at $600k and under. ditto!

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nah, it wont happen here, not in the Foothills

2009-12-27T12:23:09-07:00

Homeowners with mortgages of more than $1 million are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and some are turning to so-called short sales to unload properties as stock-market losses and pay cuts squeeze wealthy borrowers.

"You are just starting to see the tip of the iceberg with luxury short sales," said Adrian Heyman, owner of Property Advisors, a real estate broker in Scottsdale, Ariz. "A lot of wealthy people are upside-down in their mortgages, and they just can't afford the second or third vacation home anymore."

"The reason the low end stopped falling is because the government stepped in with affordable loans," said Scott Simon, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., a Newport Beach-based investment firm that runs the world's largest bond fund. "There is no political will to bail out a million-dollar house."

From Bloomberg News to The Detroit Free Press to You
High-end borrowers turning to short sales
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How does this bode for the Tucson Foothills Million+ home market.
Currently we have 113 homes for sale (with more sure to come in January/February) priced from $1,000,000 to $13,500,000 and they’ve been on the market an average of 294 days, at an average list price of $2,134,738, median of $1,549,000.

On the other side of the equation, 37 have sold this year- after an average of 256 days on the market, for an average sold price of $1,450,649, median of $1,232,000. So, just considering the high-end, there’s a big gap between the price of the homes for sale and of those that have sold.

And based on YTD sales, (the most generous interpretation) we’re looking at about 3 years worth of high-end inventory. With much of it intended for the swarm of 2nd and retirement home buyers, who have so far done a pretty good job of not showing up.

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