Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

Today's Unusual Web Ad

2009-12-22T13:55:03-08:00

Tim Knight

Another Day, Another New High

2009-12-22T13:07:47-08:00

Life really is stranger than fiction, isn't it? Who would have ever guessed last winter that we'd be looking at something like this?

Short Utilities

2009-12-22T11:58:07-08:00

Let's dust off the bearish nature of this blog a bit, shall we? My largest short position right now is XLU, on which I have an entry at 31.26 and a stop at 31.71; since something seems to be up with the bond market (hmmmmmmm!) XLU is just about the only big ETF down today.

NASDAQ at 61.8% Retracement

2009-12-22T10:45:55-08:00

Does it mean anything? Given the past ten months, probably not. But here it is:

URE Merits Another Mention

2009-12-22T10:20:19-08:00

I'm starting to wonder if I should more aggressively pursue the domain WallOfWorry.com since I keep focusing on bullish ideas instead of bearish ones. Anyway, I bought a largish block of URE earlier today. My chart-brain (bullish on this) conflicts with my state-of-the-world brain (real estate?!?!!?!?!?), but this is one of the finest charts I've seen in a while. A break above $6.99 would totally seal the deal.

GDX Worth a Look as a Short-Term Long Play

2009-12-22T09:38:35-08:00

Tim Knight

The Decade's Technology

2009-12-22T08:47:51-08:00

Tim Knight

Chartless Day

2009-12-22T08:01:19-08:00

Well, this is what it feels like to be in a plane with a shattered windshield and no instruments functioning. The charts have been down all day so far. They're getting close to having them fixed, but until then, we're just going to have to talk amongst ourselves..........

Quote of the Month

2009-12-22T07:10:11-08:00

After seeing it mentioned many times in the comments section, I finally bought and started reading Fooled by Randomness, which I am enjoying tremendously. I just finished Section 1 of the book.

As I was reading it last night, a quote on page 126 just about knocked me off my feet (and would have, were it not for the fact I was reading it in bed). It is as follows:

A theory that does not present a set of conditions under which it would be considered wrong would be termed charlatanism - it would be impossible to reject otherwise. Why? Because the astrologist can always find a reason to fit the past event, by saying that Mars was probably in line but not too much so (likewise to me a trader who does not have a point that would make him change his mind is not a trader).

Can you imagine what two words instantly sprang to my mind? They rhyme with "Melliott Crave." Not to say that I've reached any kind of final conclusion personally, but I've got to say again, those words really resonated in a way that I bet a lot of readers here can understand.

The Importance of Mental Models (by Leisa)

2009-12-22T06:06:36-08:00

The mental models that we create for ourselves are powerful. Our models create the context in which we operate or the lens in which we view the world.

The market, like Nature, is a treacherous place. The unfortunate fellow on the left is a tomato hornworm-picture courtesy of me and my tomato plant. If you are a gardener you know him for his voracious appetite. Once attached to your tomato plant, he can defoliate it in short time.

Nature loves balance. This gluttoneous fellow serves as a host for the parasitic wasp's braconid and ichneumonid. The wasp lays its eggs, and the pupae feast on on the flesh of of the horn worm. The open casing is where the wasp emerges. (Editor's note: ewwwwwwww!!)

As individual investors and traders, we often feel like the David against the Goliath. The next time you feel prone to lamenting the gluttonous caterpillars that are feasting on your portfolio, I would encourage you to think of the braconid wasp. It is nimble and opportunistic. It worked for David; it works for the braconid; it will work for you. But it will not work if you are mired down in another mental model that prevents your empowering your actions.