Bespoke Investment Grouptag:typepad.com,2003:weblog-12880102010-04-12T09:04:49-04:00TypePadBespoke Website Switchtag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20133eca18f79970b2010-04-12T09:04:49-04:002010-04-12T09:05:42-04:00This site has moved to www.bespokeinvest.com.Paul HickeyCollapse! The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisistag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a8e95e54970b2010-03-01T22:14:19-05:002010-03-01T22:14:19-05:00A few weeks ago we noted that we had just received a big delivery of an item we had made. Without further ado, behold Collapse! -- The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis. Collapse! is a commemorative game that takes a light hearted approach to the very serious events of the financial crisis. The game allows players to relive the...Paul HickeyBlog Switchtag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a83709db970b2010-01-31T14:26:58-05:002010-01-31T14:26:58-05:00After a nice run for nearly 3 years on Typepad, we've decided to move Think B.I.G. to a Squarespace platform. From here on out, all of our posts will be at www.bespokeinvest.com. If you have this site bookmarked in your favorites or on RSS feed, please be sure to switch over. There is a new RSS feed button at www.bespokeinvest.com....Paul HickeyDefault Risk For Financials Shoots Uptag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e201287731dbb8970c2010-01-29T19:48:08-05:002010-01-29T19:48:08-05:00During the financial crisis, we created an index that tracks credit default swap prices for the major banks and brokers across the world. This essentially measures default risk for the financial sector. After declining significantly for the past 9 months, the index has spiked in recent weeks to its highest level since last September. As shown below, the downtrend line...Paul HickeyWhat Is Getting Hit Hardest?tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e201287731ccc4970c2010-01-29T19:31:11-05:002010-01-29T19:33:23-05:00We broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance in 2009 to see if the big winners from last year are the ones getting hit the hardest on the recent pullback. As shown below, they definitely are. The 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 have averaged a decline of 9.5% since...Paul HickeyUgly Tapetag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20128772f28ab970c2010-01-29T15:39:28-05:002010-01-29T15:39:28-05:00After trading up nearly 1% in the morning, the major markets have tumbled in afternoon trading. This type of action, when the market trades sharply down even though economic reports and earnings reports both beat estimates handily, is not good. There's simply no way to sugercoat it. Since the start of the pullback, earnings and economic numbers have remained strong,...Paul HickeyContributions to Real GDP Growth in Q4tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a82b9249970b2010-01-29T15:18:26-05:002010-01-29T15:29:22-05:00Below we highlight the breakdown of contributions to the 5.7% Real GDP Growth in Q4 (YoY). Consumption and inventories were big contributors to growth, along with exports due to the weak dollar. One area that didn't contribute to the 5.7% GDP growth was government. In fact, government's contribution to Q4 GDP actually acted as a drag, as the marginal contribution...Paul HickeySector Earnings Beat Rate and Stock Performacetag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a826bba8970b2010-01-29T12:35:08-05:002010-01-29T13:57:06-05:00The current earnings per share "beat" rate this earnings season is 73% for all US stocks. Below we highlight the percentage of companies in each sector that have beaten estimates. As shown, only three sectors have a higher beat rate than the overall market -- Materials (76.7%), Consumer Discretionary (83.7%), and Technology (87%). Two of the three sectors that are...Paul HickeyGDP Rises to Highest Level Since 2003tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a825b833970b2010-01-29T09:20:08-05:002010-01-29T09:28:50-05:00While the ultimate pace of the economic rebound continues to be debated, GDP in the fourth quarter rose 5.7% (expectations were for growth of 4.6%), which was the fastest pace in six years. Granted, this growth follows an even bigger decline of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009, but at least it's a start. Judging by the performance of...Paul HickeyPercentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averagestag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a81fd208970b2010-01-28T18:07:12-05:002010-01-28T18:07:12-05:00As shown below, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages in the S&P 500 has dropped to 35%. This is the lowest level seen since mid-2009. Clearly breadth has gotten weak on this pullback. No sectors have more than 50% of stocks above their 50-days, and Consumer Discretionary has the highest reading at 48%. Materials is the weakest...Paul HickeyBespoke on Fox Business Today (1/28) at 2:30tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a81e0c46970b2010-01-28T12:39:28-05:002010-01-28T12:39:51-05:00Bespoke's Paul Hickey will appear on Fox Business Network today (1/28) at 2:30 PM ET to discuss our current market outlook.Paul Hickey10-Day A/D Line For Materials At Most Oversold Level Since October 2008tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a81df434970b2010-01-28T12:22:32-05:002010-01-28T12:28:34-05:00The 10-Day A/D Line for the S&P 500 Materials sector is currently more oversold than at any other point since October 2008. It is also currently showing the eleventh most oversold reading since 1990. In the chart below, we highlight each of those occurrences (all occurred after 2000) with a red dot. In the week following the prior ten most...Paul HickeyDow Breaks Another Support Leveltag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e201287720b532970c2010-01-28T12:09:28-05:002010-01-28T12:09:14-05:00As shown in the chart below, the Dow has just broken below its support level at the 10,100 mark. This support was formed by the peak in the index in mid-October. Some commentators have been blaming the drop on more tax proposals in Obama's State of the Union speech last night. But even if you think this is the cause...Paul HickeyBest Performing Stocks on Earningstag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20120a81d1601970b2010-01-28T10:09:21-05:002010-01-28T10:09:21-05:00It's been a great earnings season from a numbers standpoint, but it has been a pretty bad earnings season in terms of stock performance. But some stocks have done well. Below we highlight the 25 companies that have gone up the most on their report days this earnings season. As shown, TSCM has had the best earnings-day peformance with a...Paul HickeyIt's Been a Good Year For Fordtag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00d8349edae969e20128771cdd42970c2010-01-27T17:42:20-05:002010-01-27T17:43:35-05:00While Ford (F) was typically considered among the most dysfunctional automakers less than three years ago, look who's laughing now. As major players like GM and Toyota can't get out of their own way, both operationally and in terms of their stock prices, their losses have been Ford's gain. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.Paul Hickey