Bespoke Investment Group

A Tale of Two Brokers?

2009-07-06T17:39:15-04:00

At least in the second quarter of 2009, the earnings pictures for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been painted with two very different brushes. On July 2nd, the NY Times highlighted the two different paths that the firms have taken regarding risk since the financial crisis hit. Below we provide charts of the earnings per share estimates for both...

Volume in the Doldrums

2009-07-06T13:59:42-04:00

While things typically quiet down during the summer, the pace of volume this year has been downright anemic. Using the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) as a proxy, the 50-day average dollar value of volume in the ETF has declined by 54% since its peak last Fall. It is also currently at its lowest level since the S&P 500 peaked...

Who Needs Stocks When You Have a Mattress

2009-07-06T10:28:22-04:00

Nearly 13 years after making 'irrational exuberance' one of the most familiar phrases of all time, stock market investors are anything but exuberant. On 12/5/96, when Greenspan suggested that stock market investors may be out of touch with reality, the S&P 500 was at 744.38. As of the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500 has gained 53.4% on...

Which Way Market?

2009-07-06T09:54:07-04:00

Friday's big down day put the S&P 500 back into negative territory for the year. As shown in the first chart below, we've been in negative territory for the year much more than we've been in positive territory. The S&P has been flirting with both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and its 2009 starting level for much of the...

Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages

2009-07-02T10:31:59-04:00

Another down day in the market has sent the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages in the S&P 500 back below 50%. Currently, 45% of stocks are above their 50-days. The worst sector by far is Energy. Just 8% of Energy stocks are above their 50-days, even as oil has been strong for the past few months. Industrials...

Mixed Bag

2009-07-02T09:52:21-04:00

Yesterday we asked Bespoke readers where they thought the Dow would close at the end of 2009. As shown below, the results are scattered all over the place. There are slightly more bears than bulls, however, with 48% expecting the Dow to close higher than 8,500 and 52% expecting it to close lower. The response that got the most votes...

Technology Stock Performance

2009-07-01T17:23:02-04:00

The best performing S&P 500 sector in the first half was Technology. The sector as a whole was up 24% in the first half, and below we highlight the year to date performance of the stocks that make up the sector. Of the 74 S&P 500 Technology stocks, 61 are up year to date and 13 are down. Western Digital...

Where Will The Market Go Next?

2009-07-01T11:36:25-04:00

As we highlighted yesterday, the market has taken investors on a wild ride so far in 2009. But where will it head next? Please take part in our poll below that asks where the Dow will most likely close on 12/31/2009. The index is currently trading at 8,550. We'll report back with the results in a few days. Thanks for...

ISM: Getting Better and Not as Far From Good

2009-07-01T11:21:25-04:00

As highlighted in an earlier post, the ADP Employment report has shown improvement for four straight months, but it is still far below levels that we saw prior to the Lehman bankruptcy. This morning's ISM report, however, tells a different story. June's level of 44.8 is the sixth straight month over month increase, as well as the highest monthly reading...

ADP: Getting Better But Far From Great

2009-07-01T09:37:36-04:00

This month's release of the ADP payroll report showed that private employers cut 473K jobs during the month of June. This was the fourth straight monthly improvement from March's low of -736K. While many of the market/economic indicators we track have returned to their "Pre-Lehman" levels, the ADP employment report is still 205K below its September 2008 reading of negative...

A Wild Ride So Far

2009-06-30T20:02:32-04:00

lf you went to sleep at the end of 2008 and just woke up today, you'd see the S&P 500 up 1.78% for the year and probably assume it's been a pretty boring six months in the market. Oh how you'd be wrong, however. As shown below, the market has taken investors for a wild ride so far this year....

Baltic Dry Index Stuck in a Holding Pattern

2009-06-30T14:00:01-04:00

After an impressive rise (547%) off the lows of devastating decline (-94%), the Baltic Dry Index is currently stuck in a narrow range making lower highs and higher lows. With investors searching high and low for signs that the global economy is coming back to life, you can bet you'll be hearing about it if it breaks out to the...

Consumer Confidence Disappoints

2009-06-30T10:44:02-04:00

With a reading of 49.3, this morning’s Consumer Confidence report for the month of June came in six points below consensus forecasts, and it was the 13th weakest report compared to expectations since 1999. In the table below, we summarize the average and median performance of the S&P 500 and each of its ten sectors on the day of the...

Would You Buy This Stock?

2009-06-30T09:49:20-04:00

Would you buy a stock whose chart looks like the one below? It had a nice run but has pulled back quite a bit over the last couple of years. The chart above is of the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Median Home Price index. MacroShares has been working on developing an ETF that tracks this index for what seems like years...

Q2 EPS Growth Expectations Are Ugly, But Getting Less Ugly

2009-06-29T17:32:43-04:00

The second quarter reporting period begins next week with Alcoa's (AA) earnings release, and below we highlight the Q2 consensus earnings growth expectation for the S&P 500. As shown, analysts currently expect S&P 500 earnings to decline 33.5% versus Q2 2008. While this is an ugly number, it's a little less ugly than it was in May and early June....