Football Betting

New England Patriots Vs Buffalo Bills Point Spread Free Pick

2009-12-20T07:54:26-08:00

In their history against one another, the Patriots have been absurdly dominant against Buffalo. The Bills haven’t beaten New England in over five years, piling up a 0-10 SU record and a 3-7 ATS streak against the Pats. With Tom Brady and Randy Moss being scrutinized by the Panthers last week, revenge will be key. Yet the Patriots bandwagon is worried that this game has “disaster” written all over it.

The main reason your Boston friends will be so pessimistic is because of the way things have been going in New England…or rather for sports in New England. The Colts are perfect and they decimated the Patriots on Sunday Night Football betting with a brutal “4 th and 2” call by Uncle Bill. The Lakers and the Yankees both won championships this year and the Bruins are a shadow of themselves yet again. It’s one thing to see one of your main rivals doing well, but it’s entirely demoralizing when three of your arch-rivals are enjoying success. New England fans love hanging themselves by a noose, but I’m not so sure what they’re concerned about.

The Patriots have a legitimate chance of going 11-5 SU in an ugly season. Of course most of the concerns surround the fact that the Patriots are in authoritative disarray right now with key players being benched (Adalius Thomas) and their star player, Randy Moss, being blamed for taking off plays.

It also doesn’t help matters that New England is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games as well. A major part of the scare in New England was the telling Monday Night Football matchup between these two, where New England rallied in the fourth to survive 25-24 after a fumble by the Bills. The Patriots are also just 2-3 SU in their last 5 games. If you’re being tricked in to doubting the Patriots by your buddies who support them, then I’ve got news for you – you’re an idiot.

New England Patriots (8-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-8)

Sunday, December 20 th --- Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo --- 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: New England -7 (40.5)

The Bills are simply brutal and there’s no reason to get excited about a 16-10 win over a sputtering Chiefs team. Orchard Park is not even friendly to its home team, and the Bills have gone just 2-9 SU/ATS in their last 11 home games. Cue an 0-5 SU/ATS record when hosting the Patriots and you have a recipe for a blowout win by the Patriots. The other reason this is going to be difficult for the Bills is because of Terrell Owens.

It’s not that I’m scared of Owens blowing up for a huge game in the freezing weather. It’s more that Owens, for some reason, always brings out the best in Randy Moss by merely existing. The two have exchanged chops in the past and this game will be no different, with the slight exception that both are going to keep their mouths shut leading up to the game. With Moss getting blasted by the media, the fans and critics, he’s about to have a huge bounce back game as the Patriots throw it in cruise control and crush the Bills. Bank on it.

Furious Free Pick: New England -7 (OVER)

Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins Pointspread Free Pick

2009-12-20T07:50:35-08:00

The Dolphins lost their starting quarterback and starting running-back during the football betting season, but had depth in the wings with Chad Henne and Ricky Williams. The surging Dolphins clipped the Jaguars in the tail last weekend and now must push for a playoff spot by shattering the dreams of the Titans. The question is whether or not Tennessee can show the same kind of gumption and tenacity if they don’t have their starting quarterback, Vince Young.

You really have to keep your eyes on Vince Young because if he’s not there, you’re money is going to be tied up with Kerry Collins. I respect Collins as a suitable backup, probably one of the better ones in the league actually, but the Titans have been built around their rushing attack. Miami’s road rushing defense gives up 111.3 yards per game, but without Young the Titans may not stand a chance. He’s become that crucial to the gameplan in Tennessee.

This game comes down to a battle of resolve, with Tennessee’s leading man questionable and Miami finding its groove with its new backfield of Henne and Williams. They can pretty much squeak past BetUS' NFL betting line, but not by much. Their last four wins have been by a point differential of just +2.8.

Miami Dolphins (7-6) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-7)

Sunday, December 20th --- LP Field, Tennessee --- 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Tennessee -3

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-3) >> Join to Bet Now

Right now the oddsmakers are sitting on their hands because nobody has any idea what is going on with Vince Young’s hamstring. The problem for the Titans is that they need to win out for the rest of the season to make the playoffs. The same goes for the Dolphins, who are 5-2 ATS in their last 6 games and a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Overall, the Dolphins travel very well going 8-4 SU in their last 12 games away from South Beach.

Keep your eye on the line, though. If Tennessee is getting a touchdown or more, then you have to take the Dolphins. This is a game that will come down to the wire and without Vince Young, against a speedy 3-4 defense in Miami, Chris Johnson may not be able to explode like he’s used to. The Dolphins also have some very good corners in the secondary that will make life for the Tennessee passing game a living hell.

I love the Titans, and I think what they’ve accomplished in the face of an 0-6 SU start is amazing. But Young or not, I think that Miami has shown it has the nuts to persevere. This is the same team that beat New England just two weeks ago. The Titans are the darling story of the NFL, but Miami is going to prove to the betting world that they are a legit playoff threat. Young or no Young, I’m going with Miami.

Furious Free Pick: Miami +3

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Winner

2009-12-19T07:51:22-08:00

No two playoff contenders in the NFC are bewildering me more than New Orleans and Dallas. I’m actually pretty serious about this. While New Orleans is perfect, they’ve nearly lost to Washington, St. Louis and Chris Redman. Dallas has been all over the place and has suddenly lost two crucial games against the Giants and the Chargers. One team is perfect on paper and the other team is far from it, but each of these football teams is walking a very fine line between playoffs and sudden obscurity.

Yes, if the Saints lose a game, they will be dissected to death and we will have our noses rubbed in some “The Saints Weren’t Mean To Be Perfect…and Here’s Why!” crap from writers when other fans like you and me have seen this coming for weeks.

The problem is that I don’t think Dallas is the team to do it. New Orleans has been getting calls like crazy from the refs and it’s highly contested that they won the game against Washington. They’ve been pushed to the limit by virtually every team in the last five except for an abysmal squad from Tampa Bay. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

Betting against the Saints overall, however, has been just hazardous to your healthy. They’ve 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, undefeated this season at home and are 5-0 ATS when playing Dallas. They screw you in games that should be virtual locks, and they cash in your sports betting picks when they clear the house with teams like the Patriots. So against an iffy and completely questionable opponent like Dallas, I’m just as stuck as you are.

Dallas Cowboys (8-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-0)

Saturday, December 19th
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans --- 8:20pm EST

NFL Betting Line: New Orleans -7.5 (53.5)

Whenever I’m stumped on a game that has my betting instincts going haywire, I find solace in the numbers, and here’s what they’re telling me. On average, the Cowboys have scored 5.8 points less than what they should have considering their opponents. This is why they’re 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games! On average, they score almost two field-goals less than what teams give up. Basically they’re taking a girl back to the dorm whom everyone on campus has scored with, and all they’re getting is a handjob and maybe a boob touch.

The Saints, despite all their deficiencies in the last few games, have scored 10.8 points more than what their last five opponents have allowed on average. The Cowboys may rank 6th overall on defense, but they’ve been sacked with a huge injury to DeMarcus Ware, whose neck is making him a 50-50 call for this game. Even with him, do you think that Dallas is suddenly going to find ways to rush the passer?

My major concern in this game overall is Dallas on the road. They’re 1-4 ATS in their last 5 sports betting matchups away from home and are 4-8 SU in their last 12 roadies overall. With the Saints remaining perfect and getting just a shade over a touchdown, I still feel safer with them than with a one-track offense with Tony Romo playing in an insanely loud Superdome. Bad offensive numbers, terrible NFL betting trends and Tony Romo. That’s a trifecta against the Cowboys if you ask me.

As for the TOTAL, I’m taking the UNDER. New Orleans is terrified of screwing the pooch with a perfect season hanging in the balance and Dallas can blow up regardless of their own ineptitude (on occasion).

Furious Free Pick: New Orleans -7.5 (OVER)

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 15

2009-12-19T07:46:02-08:00

NFL Parlay Picks: Packers Looking Awfully Good While Steelers are Reeling and Washington Tries to Put Final Nail into the Giants’ Coffin

The Indianapolis Colts stayed perfect on Thursday after Peyton refused to let his team lose. Hey, the Jags had their chances, but that’s why the Colts are the Colts and the Jags are the Jags.

The Saints are going to try and stay perfect on Saturday when they take on the Dallas Cowboys in New Orleans. Both the Colts and Saints are drawing the most attention from NFL betting fans this weekend, which is understandable, but there are two games that gamblers should look at in order to make profits.

I consider these two games to be the two best betting contests in the NFL this week.

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Game-day: 12/20/2009

Kick-off: 4:15 pm EST

NFL Odds: Pittsburgh -1

Analysis: The Steelers have lost 5 games in a row straight-up and are 1 and 4 ATS in those last 5 games. Among the teams they have lost to as favorites have been the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers scored only 6 points against Cleveland’s atrocious defense. Green Bay’s D is ranked 2 nd in the NFL. Their offense is ranked 7 th and Aaron Rodgers has a 102.5 QB rating on the year. They Packers slightly better than the Browns, don’t you think?

It’s odd that the betting line favors the Steelers in this game. Reputation obviously goes a long way for Pittsburgh when it comes to the odds makers. Gamblers shouldn’t be fooled. The betting line is flawed in this game. Green Bay is a much better team than Pittsburgh right now having won 6 games in a row.

The stats say that Green Bay rolls in this game. The Packers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road. That was before they got hot, so the trend is legit.

The Packs should destroy Pittsburgh in this game.

Pick: Green Bay Packers at +1

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

Game-day: 12/21/2009

Kick-off: 8:30 pm EST

NFL Odds: N.Y. Giants -3

Analysis: This is another game where I believe the online odds are a bit out of whack. I mean, the Giants were pummeled by Denver, should have lost to Dallas and then got beat by the Philadelphia Eagles at home last Sunday. The G-Men have gone 1 and 7 ATS in their last 8 games.

Washington always plays New York tough, are at home for this game, and have gone 5 and 1 against the spread since their bye week and 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games. The ‘Skins are getting 3 points in this game? Really? Did I just read that right?

Washington not only should beat this spread, but they have a good shot at winning this game outright. The ‘Skins defense will come to play as everybody, on both the offense and defense, will want to impress the new G.M., Bruce Allen, but it’s the defensive side that Allen, the former G.M. for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be paying the most attention to. Expect Safety LaRon Landry to have a huge game in this.

I love Washington in this game.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints Pointspread Free Pick

2009-12-18T07:56:55-08:00

Like Cinderella at midnight, the Dallas Cowboys are once again turning into a pumpkin in December. Their attempt to right the ship doesn’t get any easier this week as they face the undefeated New Orleans Saints and former NFL wide receiver, Tim Brown, isn’t expecting anything but a blowout.

Brown, who was a fan of the Cowboys in his youth, has soured on the team and spoke of how much they lack a team mentality on his most recent video on BetFlix.

“They got a team with too many superstars but the superstars don’t play like superstars,” says Brown, who is picking the Saints to win in a romp this Saturday.

The Cowboys December collapses have been well-documented and it has been an issue for this team during the Wade Phillips-Tony Romo regime. While they have plenty of weapons on offense, including stars like Romo, Roy Williams, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Marion Barber and Felix Jones – all of whom have been to or have Pro Bowl potential – the team has had failures in execution over the last couple of weeks.

Last week against the San Diego Chargers, the Cowboys were stuffed on the goal line and were left empty-handed in what turned out to be a 20-17 loss. Had the Cowboys just kicked a field goal – or had kicker Nick Folk made an easy field goal that he missed – the Cowboys could have been in a different position.

The week prior, the Cowboys against lost by one score in a tight 31-24 loss to the New York Giants. Kicker Nick Folk missed two of three field goals, which again could have changed the dynamic of the contest.

“It’s December, it’s definitely time for the Cowboys to start shutting it down,” says Brown, even though he admits they have played better in their first two December contests than they did last year.

The Cowboys will be in tough this week as they will try to do something that 13 other teams have failed to do: beat the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have been cutting it close in recent weeks with three-point wins over Washington and Atlanta, but those contests were on the road. Back at home in their cozy confines against a mentally frail team with execution problems, the scene could be significantly more one-sided.

“New Orleans wins big – 41-3,” says Brown, “the Cowboys have no business being on the field with the New Orleans Saints.”

The Cowboys take on the Saints this Saturday night at 8:20 PM ET. BetUs sports betting has listed the Saints 7.5-point favorite.

NFL Handicapping Tips - December

2009-12-18T07:46:04-08:00

Knowing how to make it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season.

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded "this team has to win". In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be - trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents� tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival�s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it's not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team's collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Doug Upstone
Playbook.com

NFL Handicapping Tips - December

2009-12-18T07:46:01-08:00