http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com Provides free information on fantasy football including player rankings, player articles, strategy articles, offensive line articles and more. en http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss phil@ultimateffstrategy.com phil@ultimateffstrategy.com fantasy football, nfl, football 1440 RSSeditor v0.9.54 (http://www.rss-info.com) http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Images/fsvlogo.jpg http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com Subscribe with My Yahoo!Subscribe with NewsGatorSubscribe with My AOLSubscribe with BloglinesSubscribe with NetvibesSubscribe with GoogleSubscribe with Pageflakes http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week9.htm Ryan Grant has not done anything exceptional this season but he averages a respectable 4.1 yards per carry and is seventh in the NFL with 18.3 rushes per game. The most impressive thing is that he has done it behind a depleted offensive line that has allowed 31 sacks in only seven games. This week the Packers will get Chad Clifton and Mark Tasucher back at tackle and will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have allowed 4.7 yards per carry so far this season. Except Grant to have an excellent game this week in Tampa Bay. 6 November 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week8.htm Steven Jackson has been very frustrating for fantasy players this season but he is still third in the NFL in rushing yards and second in carries. The problem is that Jackson has not been able to get into the end zone a single time because of his team's struggles on offense. However, this week Jackson faces the Detroit Lions who are second worst in the NFL with 31.3 points allowed per game. Expect Jackson to get into the end zone this week and have a big game against the Lions. 28 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week7.htm This week will be very interesting for weekly leagues as the Lions, Jaguars and Titans are all on their bye weeks so fantasy players will have to look a little deeper to find their quarterback. One who could surprise this week is Jay Cutler who has been the sixth best QB since week three and will be playing facing the Bengals in Cincinnati. The Bengals looked pretty good in their first five games but the loss of Antwan Odom slowed down their pass rush and really hurt them against the Texans who had 385 passing yards. Look for Cutler to have a big game, especially if Roy Williams and Domata Peko are still out. 22 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week6.htm Despite averaging nearly 270 passing yards per game so far this season, most would agree that Brady has had a tough start to the 2009 season and is not as good as he was in 2007 before his injury. However, four of Brady's five opponents so far this year are amongst the nine best fantasy defenses against quarterbacks. This week however, the Patriots host the Titans in Gillette Stadium and we expect Brady to have an excellent game. Find out who else has favorable match-ups in our week six projections. 16 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/sos_week6.htm After the first five weeks of the season we generally have enough data to know who the good fantasy players are this season and the strengths and weaknesses of each defense. According to our chart, Eli Manning is a player you might want to consider trading away and maybe look to upgrade for Tom Brady or even a guy like Joe Flacco who should be able to keep up this pace for the rest of the season. 15 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week5.htm Peyton Manning is the best fantasy football quarterback so far in 2009 and things are very unlikely to change this week as he faces the weakest pass defense in the NFL in the Titans. Find out who else has favorable match-ups in our week four projections. 8 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week4.htm Cedric Benson has been very impressive this year despite facing three of the ten best defenses against the run. This week he goes to Cleveland to play against the second worst so we have to expect and excellent game from him. Find out who else has favorable match-ups in our week four projections. 2 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/matchup_3_0.htm This Sunday, Rex Ryan’s impressive New York Jets will travel to New Orleans to face the best offense in the NFL in the Saints. Find out who has the edge for this Sunday and for the rest of the year. 1 October 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week3.htm The following chart shows the advantage that each team has at each position this week in fantasy football. Philip Rivers was very impressive last week against the Ravens with 436 passing yards and he gets a favorable match-up this week at home against the Dolphins. 25 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/six_receptions_rule.htm One of the questions that fantasy players most often asks themselves is which wide receivers should I pick up on waivers? We are strong believers that yards and touchdowns even out at some point during a player’s season or career. Looking at data from the past four years, we came up with the six receptions rule. 23 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/start_sit_success.htm Take a look at our start or sit success rate from our USA Today chat every Friday morning at 11AM 22 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Start_Sit/week2.htm The following chart shows the advantage that each team has at each position this week in fantasy football. Trent Edwards was very impressive last week and he gets a favorable match-up this week at home against the Buccaneers. 19 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/10_things_to_know_qbs_week1.htm In this article we look back at week one statistics from the past ten years to show you why you shouldn't get too worried or too excited about certain quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger is one of those quarterbacks who looked great last week but who may be overvalued by fantasy players at this point. 18 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/meaning_week1_win.htm The second week of the season is always one of the most difficult for which to select your starters. The difficulty for week two is that every team has played only one game so you do not know if a player had a good or bad week because he is on a good offense or because he faced a bad defense. This analysis will show how many fantasy points we expect each team to give up this season to opposing fantasy players. 17 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/meaning_week1_win.htm The first week of the season was marked by the upset of the Super Bowl Finalists Arizona Cardinals and a few very close games between divisional opponents. The Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars were all better than expected but they still lost so what does this mean for the rest of their season? 16 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/steelers_or_titans.htm Tonight, the Super Bowl Champions Pittsburgh Steelers will face the regular season champions Tennessee Titans in the first game of the 2009 NFL season. Defending the Vince Lombardi Trophy is never an easy thing to do especially in the salary cap era but what about bouncing back after being upset in the playoffs? Find out who has the edge between these two teams. 10 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/09preseason_analysis.htm A few weeks ago we published an article on preseason statistics and determined that certain statistics were worth keeping an eye on during the preseason. I determined a series of formulas that predicted team statistics which were 12% better than simply using last season’s statistics. Now that the pre-season is over, I will now look at the 2009 preseason statistics and apply my formulas to them. 9 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/week1_starters.htm There is no doubt that picking starters is the task that fantasy football players spend the most time doing during the season. This is a difficult task that involves a lot of guessing and a lot of luck but it is even more difficult for the first week of the year because there is very little data to use. In this analysis we will look at what you need to consider when picking your players for week one and which teams have an advantage this week. 8 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Top_10/wrs_historical_trends.htm Year after year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL even though before the season starts many seem convinced that they can predict the top five or ten players at each position. We decided to look at past seasons to try and predict which players will finish in the top ten and where the top ten in pre-season rankings will end up at the end of season. In the final article of this series of three we will look at the wide receiver position. 7 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Top_10/rbs_historical_trends.htm Year after year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL even though before the season starts many seem convinced that they can predict the top five or ten players at each position. We decided to look at past seasons to try and predict which players will finish in the top ten and where the top ten in pre-season rankings will end up at the end of season. In the second article of this series of three we will look at the running back position. 4 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Top_10/qbs_historical_trends.htm Year after year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL even though before the season starts many seem convinced that they can predict the top five or ten players at each position. We decided to look at past seasons to try and predict which players will finish in the top ten and where the top ten in pre-season rankings will end up at the end of season. In the first article of this series of three we will look at the quarterback position. 3 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/breakout_wr_part2.htm Earlier this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find wide receivers that may have breakout seasons in 2009. You can find this article by clicking here. Domenik Hixon is one of our breakout candidates who is being undervalued by most and could be very surprising in 2009. Find out who else is on our list and which are most likely to breakout in 2009. 1 September 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/player_rankings.htm Our 2009 player projections have now been updated after the second week of NFL preseason. The biggest jump in our latest rankings was made by Brian Westbrook. Westbrook has been a consistent performer over the past five seasons and now appears to be healthy. 25 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/ultimate_draft_tool.htm Earlier this summer we released the Ultimate Draft Tool and have now made a few major updates. The main one is that you can now enter trades into the program. We also adjusted the algorithm slightly and the suggestions should now be even more accurate. For those that enjoy our strategy articles and the overall content on this website, we strongly recommend this tool. 24 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/breakout_rb_part2.htm Earlier this summer we published a statistical analysis to help us find running backs that may have breakout seasons in 2009. You can find this article by clicking here. Cedric Benson is one of our breakout candidates who is being undervalued by most and could be very surprising in 2009. Find out who else is on our list and which are most likely to breakout in 2009. 23 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/draft_recommendations.htm Ever wonder when to draft rookies, how to find breakout players, whether or not to worry about strength of schedule or when do running backs start slowing down? Find out all of that and much more in our 14 proven draft recommendations. 19 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/inconsistency_tds_summary.htm As you have probably read quite a few times on this website, touchdown numbers are very unpredictable and fantasy owners tend to overvalue players who had a lot of touchdowns and undervalue players who had few touchdowns. This is pretty simple since owners often look at fantasy points scored in the previous season without looking at specific statistics. The following article will show you how much of an advantage you can gain over your opponents simply by understanding this. 16 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/inconsistency_tds.htm As you have probably read quite a few times on this website, touchdown numbers are very unpredictable and fantasy owners tend to overvalue players who had a lot of touchdowns and undervalue players who had few touchdowns. This is pretty simple since owners often look at fantasy points scored in the previous season without looking at specific statistics. The following article will show you how much of an advantage you can gain over your opponents simply by understanding this. 16 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/pre_season_summary.htm The 2009 pre-season schedule gets underway tonight with the Hall of Fame Game between the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans. Football fanatics wait anxiously for the pre-season every year and fantasy football players often watch pre-season games in order to find a sleeper for their fantasy football league. However, our analysis shows that instead of looking for sleepers during the pre-season you might want to focus at something else... 9 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/pre_season1.htm The 2009 pre-season schedule gets underway tonight with the Hall of Fame Game between the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans. Football fanatics wait anxiously for the pre-season every year and fantasy football players often watch pre-season games in order to find a sleeper for their fantasy football league. However, our analysis shows that instead of looking for sleepers during the pre-season you might want to focus at something else... 9 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Top_10/overvalued_players.htm After releasing our list of top 10 undervalued players, we now have the top 10 overvalued players for you. Coming at number one on our list this season is Michael Turner, a player with very limited upside but a lot of downside and who should not even be considered as a top five fantasy running back. Find out why we believe Turner and nine others will be big disappointments this season... 4 August 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/ultimate_challenge.htm Find out about the 2009 Ultimate FF Strategy Challenge 31 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Top_10/undervalued_players.htm There has been a lot of controversy regarding our ranking of David Garrard and many believe that we are crazy to rank him at number four in our quarterback rankings. However, we strongly believe that he will outperform his average draft position and has a very good chance of being a top five quarterback in 2009. Find out who else made our list of most undervalued players in 2009... 30 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/player_rankings.htm After releasing our player rankings a few days ago, we released today our 2009 player notes. The player notes are short one line sentences to explain why he is ranked where he is. Adrian Peterson is one of those players that we have ranked lower than most other sites but as we say in the player notes: "Loss of Matt Birk will hurt; 9th RB in PPR leagues in 2008 with 363 carries, where can he really improve?" Find out what we have to say about all other players... 25 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/ultimate_draft_tool.htm We are very proud to introduce to you the 2009 Ultimate Draft Tool. The Ultimate Draft Tool is a very unique program which suggests players to you during your fantasy football drafts. It adjusts itself based on your league settings, position settings, drafting tendencies, the players that other teams have picked and evidently the players you have selected. It is basically a tool which puts our player rankings and strategy articles all together. 22 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/player_rankings.htm As we discussed in our forums a few days ago, Maurice Jones-Drew ranks at number one in our 2009 Player Rankings in both PPR and Non-PPR leagues. Find out where we rank Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Michael Turner and others rank in our Complete 2009 Player Rankings and Projections. 17 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/articles_ol_2009.htm The Giants line is in our top group of "very good" offensive lines for the second consecutive season and this year they are joined by six other teams. Find out where we rank all the offensive lines for the 2009 season and most importantly, which are better or worse in both run blocking and pass protection. 16 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/san_diego_chargers.htm The Chargers had a tough start to the year but it all seemed to come together near the end when they won their last four regular season and defeated the Colts in the playoffs before losing to the Steelers. The offensive line play was very similar to 2007 as they allowed 24 sacks, one fewer than in 2007 while the running game averaged 4.1 yards per carry, 0.1 fewer than the previous year. 16 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/oakland_raiders.htm The Raiders had another disappointing season in 2008 finishing with only five wins; it was the sixth time in as many seasons that they won five games or less. In those six seasons, they have not finished in the top half of the league for yards of offense or points scored a single time. The good news for the Raiders is that the offensive line allowed their lowest number of sacks since 2004 and the running game averaged 4.3 yards per carry, their best performance since 2003. 16 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/kansas_city_chiefs.htm The Chiefs offensive line was one the worst in the NFL in 2007 but to everyone’s surprise they bounced back in 2008. The running game was tied for second best in the NFL with 4.8 yards per carry and they had three different running backs with at least 60 carries and at least 4.5 yards per attempt. The number of sacks also decreased from 55 to 37 and starting QB Tyler Thigpen was sacked only 26 times on 420 pass attempts. 15 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/denver_broncos.htm The Broncos offensive line usually does not get as much credit as it deserves but there should not be any doubts that they were the best in the NFL in 2008. They allowed the fewest number of sacks with only 12 despite attempting 620 passes and also tied for second in the NFL with an average of 4.8 yards per carry. Since 2002, the Broncos have never rushed for under 4.4 yards per carry but that could change in 2009 with Josh McDaniels replacing Mike Shanahan as the head coach. 15 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/st_louis_rams.htm The Rams had another very difficult season in 2008 with only two wins after winning only three games the previous year. They still managed to average a respectable 4.0 yards per carry in the running game but the passing game was a disaster all season long. Marc Bulger and Trent Green were both disappointing but they were pressured constantly and the two of them ended up being sacked 44 times. 14 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/seattle_seahawks.htm The Seahawks had a very difficult season in 2009 with only four wins after winning at least nine games in five consecutive seasons but that was no surprise considering all the injuries they suffered. Hasselbeck started only seven games, they had to play without their top three wide receivers for a number of games and all five starters on the line missed at least two games. Despite all those injuries on the line, the Seahawks still managed to average 4.2 yards per carry and allowed only 36 sacks. 14 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/san_francisco_49ers.htm The 49ers had their best offensive season in yards and points scored since 2003 but they were still respectively 23rd and 22nd in those two categories. They were respectable in the running game with an average of 4.0 yards per carry but pass protection was a mess all year long as they allowed 55 sacks for a second consecutive season. 11 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/impact_new_HC_OC_summary.htm Josh McDaniels spent the last eight seasons in the Patriots organization and finally gets his chance as a head coach with the Denver Broncos. McDaniels was very successful with the Patriots but some of his moves have been quite questionable so far this off-season. Find out why it may be safer to stay away from Broncos players and especially their running backs in 2009. 10 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/impact_new_HC_OC.htm Josh McDaniels spent the last eight seasons in the Patriots organization and finally gets his chance as a head coach with the Denver Broncos. McDaniels was very successful with the Patriots but some of his moves have been quite questionable so far this off-season. Find out why it may be safer to stay away from Broncos players and especially their running backs in 2009. 10 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/arizona_cardinals.htm The Cardinals surprised everyone in 2008 with a trip to the Super Bowl and coming extremely close to defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the Cardinals were unable to establish a rushing attack all year long ranking 31st in the NFL with only 3.5 yards per carry. Things were much better in pass protection as they allowed only 28 sacks despite attempting 630 passes which ranked them seventh in the NFL in sacks allowed per pass attempts. 10 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/pittsburgh_steelers.htm The Steelers had a great season in 2008 winning their sixth Super Bowl but their offensive line was one of the worst in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 46 times on only 469 pass attempts and the running game ranked 29th in the NFL with only 3.7 yards per carry. It was the first time since 2003 that the Steelers averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry and it was obvious that the loss of Alan Faneca had something to do with that. 10 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/cleveland_browns.htm Big things were expected from this offensive line in 2008 after allowing only 19 sacks and after the running game averaged 4.3 yards per carry in 2007. Unfortunately things were not so great in 2008. Pass protection was pretty good all year long despite the inconsistency at the quarterback position but the running game was well-below the league average with only 3.9 yards per carry. 9 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/cincinnati_bengals.htm The Bengals had an extremely difficult season in 2008 with only four wins and it’s no surprise considering their offensive line was arguably the worst in the NFL. The Bengals ranked 30th in sacks allowed with 51 and also 30th in the running game with an average of only 3.6 yards per carry. It was no surprise that the running game struggled since it has not averaged above 3.7 yards per carry since 2005 but they astonishingly allowed three times more sacks than they did in 2007. 9 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/baltimore_ravens.htm Matt Birk left the Minnesota Vikings for the Baltimore Ravens in the off-season and could impact fantasy football drafts more than you think this year. In our forums we took a look at a few reasons why Maurice Jones-Drew could be worth drafting over Adrian Peterson; Matt Birk was one of those reasons. In this article we now take a look at the Baltimore Ravens offensive line and see why they should improve in 2009. 7 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/minnesota_vikings.htm After averaging 5.3 yards per carry in 2007, the Vikings running game averaged only 4.5 yards per carry and that included Adrian Peterson who averaged 0.8 yards per carry less than in his rookie year. The Vikings offensive line also continued to allow a high number of sacks, 43 to be precise, a tenth straight season with 35 or more sacks allowed. 3 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_Articles/top_20_college_prospects1.htm 2008 Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford had a tremendous sophomore season and is evidently once again a candidate to win the Heisman Trophy. Bradford should be the first quarterback selected in the 2010 NFL Draft but there are some more talented offensive college prospects than him. Find out where Bradford ranks in Dynasty Rogues Top 20 College Prospects list and who else made this year's list. 3 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/green_bay_packers.htm The Packers won seven fewer games in 2008 than they did in 2007 and although the defense was much worse, one of the reasons for the difficult season was the inability to create holes in the running game. The running game still averaged 4.1 yards per carry, the same as in 2007, but we were expecting much more from them after averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the second half of the 2007 season. Rodgers was sacked 34 times last season, 19 more times than Favre was in 2007, and part of that can be blamed on the offensive line but he also had a tendency to hang on to the ball longer than Favre did. 2 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/detroit_lions.htm In 2008, the Detroit Lions offense ranked in the bottom half of the league for yards of offense for the seventh consecutive season. After their best season since 2000, the Lions failed to win a single game in 2008 and struggled both offensively and defensively. The Lions allowed more than 50 sacks for the third consecutive season and averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in the running game. 2 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/chicago_bears.htm The Chicago Bears surprised many in 2008 with an average of 3.9 yards per carry as opposed to only 3.1 in 2007 and certainly no one would have expected Matt Forte to run for 1,200 yards in his rookie year. The Bears line also allowed only 29 sacks, 10 fewer than the previous year, but everything needs to be re-evaluated this year because there have been a number of changes. 1 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/new_york_jets.htm The New York Jets made major changes to their offensive line last off-season and there is no doubt that it paid off despite winning only nine games. Brett Favre was the big name acquisition but the ones that truly improved this team are Alan Faneca and Damien Woody. In 2008, the Jets averaged an impressive 4.7 yards per carry, an improvement of 0.9 yards per carry over the 2007 season. The Jets also allowed only 30 sacks as opposed to 53, although this may have had more to do with Favre who is known to get rid of the ball quickly. 1 July 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/new_england_patriots.htm The New England Patriots have been known as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL for the past few years but last year, with Brady’s injury, they allowed 48 sacks. That was their highest sacks allowed total since 2000 despite returning the same five guys on the line. The even more interesting statistic is that the Patriots averaged 4.4 yards per carry, the best performance for the running game since 1983. 30 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/drafting_depth_summary.htm Fantasy owners often focus on the strategy for drafting starting players for their fantasy football team but often forget that injuries happen very often in the NFL. In this article, we will address this and tell you at which positions you should have the most depth and how important it is to have depth on your fantasy team. 29 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/drafting_depth.htm Fantasy owners often focus on the strategy for drafting starting players for their fantasy football team but often forget that injuries happen very often in the NFL. In this article, we will address this and tell you at which positions you should have the most depth and how important it is to have depth on your fantasy team. 29 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/miami_dolphins.htm The Miami Dolphins surprised everyone in 2008 winning 11 games and ranking 12th in yards of offense, their highest rank since 1997 when they had Dan Marino. As everyone knows, the Dolphins were the first one to use the wildcat formation last season which allowed them to average 4.2 yards per carry as a team but they still weren’t particularly consistent in the running game. The line played much better in pass protection than in 2007 allowing only 26 sacks as opposed to 42. 29 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/buffalo_bills.htm The Buffalo Bills had their second best offensive performance in six years last season but unfortunately for them that only meant they ranked 23rd in the NFL in points scored and 25th in yards of offense. They ranked 14th in yards per carry with 4.2 but there seemed to be communication problems along the line for the entire season which led to Edwards and Losman being sacked 38 times. 26 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Look_Back_At_2008/Look_Back_Offensive_Line_Rankings.htm For many years it was believed that it took months if not years for an offensive line to build chemistry but apparently this may have changed. In this article we look back at our 2008 offensive line rankings and see where we were right and where we were wrong. You might be surprised to see that the majority of teams that we underestimated had one thing in common: change. 25 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/washington_redskins.htm The Washington Redskins entered the 2008 season with the oldest starters amongst the offensive line with an average age of 32 years old. They had to deal with a number of injuries in 2007 so the running game improved from 3.8 to 4.4 yards per carry last season but they allowed 38 sacks as opposed to 29 the year before. It became obvious that these linemen had lost a step since only one of the five ranked in the top half of the league in sacks allowed at his position. 25 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/philadelphia_eagles.htm The Philadelphia Eagles managed to allow only 23 sacks in 2008 after allowing 49 in the previous season. Their running game was however a disappointment averaging only 4.0 yards per carry compared to the 4.7 and 4.8 in the two previous seasons. However, all of that needs to be re-evaluated this season with two new tackles coming in and the return of Shawn Andrews. 24 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/new_york_giants.htm The New York Giants led the NFL with 5.0 yards per carry in 2008 and have now had above 4.5 yards per carry for an astonishing five straight seasons. The offensive line is not as good in pass protection but it still ranks above the league average and has not allowed more than 28 sacks since 2004. This line has been an example of consistency in the past four seasons and should be as good as last year as long as McKenzie's back can hold up. 23 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/dallas_cowboys.htm The Cowboys had a difficult season in 2008 but it is hard to blame the offensive line for the problems. The running game was effective for most of the season and pass protection wasn’t too bad until Brad Johnson came in. However, all five starting linemen on this team are at least 30 years old so pass protection and injuries could become a problem sooner rather than later. 22 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/tennessee_titans.htm The Titans had a tremendous regular season in 2008 but unfortunately were unable to get past the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional playoffs. The Titans weren’t spectacular ranking only 21st in yards of offense but that offense turned the ball over only 17 times last season. Part of that is due to the impressive play of the offensive line which allowed only 12 sacks as opposed to 30 in 2007. 18 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/aging_wearing_rb_summary.htm Over the past few seasons there have been a number of articles written about aging and wearing running backs. We used to hear that the age where a running back would decline was 31 but more recently we have also heard 30 and sometimes even 28. Many are also suggesting that Clinton Portis will struggle this season because he has reached 2,000 carries in his career. Find out when running backs really decline in our myths and realities about aging and wearing running backs... 17 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/aging_wearing_rb.htm Over the past few seasons there have been a number of articles written about aging and wearing running backs. We used to hear that the age where a running back would decline was 31 but more recently we have also heard 30 and sometimes even 28. Many are also suggesting that Clinton Portis will struggle this season because he has reached 2,000 carries in his career. Find out when running backs really decline in our myths and realities about aging and wearing running backs... 17 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/jacksonville_jaguars.htm By week two in 2008, the Jaguars had lost their two starting guards for the season, their top backup at guard for the season and their starting center for a few weeks. Their season was pretty much over at that point and in the end they finished with five wins and ranked 20th in yards of offense, their worst offensive season since 2004. 17 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/indianapolis_colts.htm The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has been one of the main reasons for the team’s success in the past few years. In 2008, the Colts ranked 15th in yards of offense, the first time they were outside the top ten since Manning’s rookie year in 1998. This is no surprise when you look at the number of injuries that this line suffered in 2008. Despite those injuries, Manning was still sacked only 14 times but the Colts ranked last in the league in yards per carry with 3.4. 16 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/houston_texans.htm The Houston Texans started their season on the wrong foot by losing their first four games but no one can blame them because of the very difficult circumstances they had to go through. The offensive line made a big step forward in the running game jumping from 3.8 yards per carry to 4.3 yards per carry. However, it also allowed 32 sacks as opposed to the 22 the year before despite all starters staying healthy. 15 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/tampa_bay_buccaneers.htm The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started rebuilding their offensive line in 2006 and now have one of the youngest offensive lines in the NFL. The problem however is that last year they did not perform as expected ranking 16th in sacks allowed and 18th in yards per carry. Their numbers were quite similar to 2007 despite the addition of Jeff Faine and the additional year of experience for the younger linemen. 13 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/bye_weeks_summary.htm This year when you prepare for your draft, you should not even have a list of bye weeks with you unless your league does not allow to pickup players on waivers. Find out why they are so unimportant... 12 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/bye_weeks.htm This year when you prepare for your draft, you should not even have a list of bye weeks with you unless your league does not allow to pickup players on waivers. Find out why they are so unimportant... 12 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/new_orleans_saints.htm The New Orleans Saints are considered by many to be one of the best offensive lines in the NFL but they probably wouldn’t look as good if they were protecting someone other than Drew Brees. The positive sign for the Saints is that they averaged 4.3 yards per carry and allowed only seven sacks in the nine games that all five starters played together in 2008. 12 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/carolina_panthers.htm Last season the Panthers averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the seven games that all five starters played together, they averaged 4.5 in the other nine. However, the problem is that the two backups from last year, Jeremy Bridges and Geoff Hangartner won’t be back this season and none of the backups have any regular season experience in the NFL. 11 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/december_weather_summary.htm December is the time for the fantasy football playoffs and the cold weather will often impact the performance of certain players. For that reason, you may start a running back playing in the cold because he is likely to have more touches or a quarterback playing in a dome because the weather will not affect his performance. However, this could also impact your draft strategy... 10 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/december_weather.htm December is the time for the fantasy football playoffs and the cold weather will often impact the performance of certain players. For that reason, you may start a running back playing in the cold because he is likely to have more touches or a quarterback playing in a dome because the weather will not affect his performance. However, this could also impact your draft strategy... 10 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/2009_OLine/atlanta_falcons.htm This line was the main piece of this offense in 2008 but it has very little depth and if one or two of them were to suffer injuries, this team could be in big trouble. 10 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/sos_summary.htm A typical 2009 strength of schedule article would tell you to be careful with Joe Flacco because the Ravens appear to have a very tough schedule against the pass in 2009. However, our strength of schedule article says that he may be worth more than you think. Find out why you should not worry about 2009 strength of schedule but should look at something else instead. 8 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/sos.htm A typical 2009 strength of schedule article would tell you to be careful with Joe Flacco because the Ravens appear to have a very tough schedule against the pass in 2009. However, our strength of schedule article says that he may be worth more than you think. Find out why you should not worry about 2009 strength of schedule but should look at something else instead. 8 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/top_qb_or_qb_tandem_summary.htm One of the questions that many fantasy football players ask themselves is when to draft their starting quarterback. Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the top three quarterbacks this season but our analysis shows that there is a much better strategy than drafting one of those three. 6 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/top_qb_or_qb_tandem1.htm One of the questions that many fantasy football players ask themselves is when to draft their starting quarterback. Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the top three quarterbacks this season but our analysis shows that there is a much better strategy than drafting one of those three. 6 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/rookie_wr_summary.htm According to many, Michael Crabtree was a steal by the San Francisco 49ers with the tenth overall pick in the NFL Draft. However, our analysis shows that wide receivers drafted early in the NFL Draft are generally overvalued in fantasy drafts and that you should most likely stay away from both Crabtree and Heyward-Bey in 2009. 4 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/rookie_wr.htm According to many, Michael Crabtree was a steal by the San Francisco 49ers with the tenth overall pick in the NFL Draft. However, our analysis shows that wide receivers drafted early in the NFL Draft are generally overvalued in fantasy drafts and that you should most likely stay away from both Crabtree and Heyward-Bey in 2009. 4 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/rookie_rb_summary.htm In fantasy football, rookie players are amongst the hardest to analyze because college statistics are often flawed by the varying quality of opponents, the system of play or the talent surrounding the players. Find out why our data shows that Knowshon Moreno might be the only rookie RB worth drafting this year... 2 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/rookie_rb.htm In fantasy football, rookie players are amongst the hardest to analyze because college statistics are often flawed by the varying quality of opponents, the system of play or the talent surrounding the players. Find out why our data shows that Knowshon Moreno might be the only rookie RB worth drafting this year... 2 June 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/breakout_wr_summary.htm The third year breakout wide receiver theory has become one of the most known theories by fantasy football players because of a few wide receivers who became dominant during their third season. However, this theory has no statistics to back it up and we believe there is a much better way to find breakout wide receivers. Domenik Hixon is one receiver who is in his fourth year in the NFL and has an excellent chance of breaking out. Find out who else made our list this year... 29 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/breakout_wr.htm The third year breakout wide receiver theory has become one of the most known theories by fantasy football players because of a few wide receivers who became dominant during their third season. However, this theory has no statistics to back it up and we believe there is a much better way to find breakout wide receivers. Domenik Hixon is one receiver who is in his fourth year in the NFL and has an excellent chance of breaking out. Find out who else made our list this year... 29 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/breakout_rb_summary.htm Fred Jackson showed a few sparks in his first two seasons and this year Jackson will get his chance to prove himself in the first three games of the year with Lynch's suspension. According to our breakout criteria, Jackson has a very good chance of breaking out this season; find out who else made our list this year... 27 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/breakout_rb.htm Fred Jackson showed a few sparks in his first two seasons and this year Jackson will get his chance to prove himself in the first three games of the year with Lynch's suspension. According to our breakout criteria, Jackson has a very good chance of breaking out this season; find out who else made our list this year... 27 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/weekly_consistency_summary.htm Many fantasy football players will base their strategy on assumptions and guesses. For many, one of those may be that players who are consistent from week to week have more value and allow you to win more games, but statistically, that's not so true. Find out why you should focus on drafting talented players and not consistent players. 24 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/weekly_consistency.htm Many fantasy football players will base their strategy on assumptions and guesses. For many, one of those may be that players who are consistent from week to week have more value and allow you to win more games, but statistically, that's not so true. Find out why you should focus on drafting talented players and not consistent players. 24 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/adp_analysis_summary.htm Fantasy football players often have difficult decisions to make and many draft strategies including value based drafting, stud RB theory and best players available are used. In this analysis we look at average draft position and statistics since 2003 in order to determine at which point in your draft there is value at each position. 22 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/adp_analysis_intro.htm Fantasy football players often have difficult decisions to make and many draft strategies including value based drafting, stud RB theory and best players available are used. In this analysis we look at average draft position and statistics since 2003 in order to determine at which point in your draft there is value at each position. 22 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Look_Back_At_2008/Look_Back_Breakout_RBs.htm In this article we are looking back at our breakout running backs from 2008, and see how they performed last season. Impressively, 5 of our 10 candidates had breakout seasons in 2008 including DeAngelo Williams who was the best RB in fantasy football. Find out who else we had on our list and how they did in 2008. 21 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Look_Back_At_2008/Look_Back_Breakout_WRs.htm In this article we are looking back at our breakout wide receivers from 2008, and see how they performed last season. Not many of our wide receivers had breakout seasons but an impressive 7 of 11 receivers on our list played better than their averaged draft position. Find out who we had on our list and how they did in 2008. 20 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Look_Back_At_2008/Look_Back_Top_10_Undervalued.htm In this article we are looking back at our top 10 undervalued players from 2008 and see how they performed last season compared to their average draft position. Clinton Portis was number one of our list of undervalued players and finished slightly below his average draft position. Find out why we still considered him a successful pick in 2008. 19 May 2009 http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Look_Back_At_2008/Look_Back_Top_10_Overvalued.htm In this article we are looking back at our top 10 overvalued players from 2008 and see how they performed last season compared to their average draft position. Braylon Edwards was number two on our list and many agree that he was the biggest disappointment in 2008. Find out who else we were right about in this article and who totally surprised us in 2008. 14 May 2009