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The day has finally come. Ike Davis has been demoted.

It’s spring cleaning in Queens. A little late perhaps, but Sandy Alderson made the biggest shakeup up the season after today’s 8-4 loss to the Marlins, sending Ike Davis, Robert Carson, and Mike Baxter down to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Davis’ struggles at the plate and on the field have, of course, been very well-chronicled. Davis showed signs of life last week against the Marlins and Yankees, but then went 1-for-13. He is hitting a dreadful .161/.242/.258 on the season with only five home runs. He has seen his walk rate go down, his strikeout rate skyrocket, and his power virtually disappear. Among qualified hitters, his .228 wOBA is second-worst in the majors only to Jeff Keppinger.

Robert Carson has been just as awful out of the bullpen. It’s a miracle that he’s even stayed on the roster this long. Carson was all along just a fill-in until Josh Edgin got back from his minor league assignment. Carson has given up seven home runs in 17 innings, posting an 8.47 ERA.

Baxter, unlike Carson, and Davis, was probably the most surprising moves, although that’s not saying much. Baxter, who was kept on the roster this season thanks to the ability to get on base at a high rate, has failed to hit. He has a .222 average, and an empty .222 at that. He hasn’t hit for any power, putting up a .079 ISO (league average is .149) and a .296 slugging percentage.

In their places, the Mets will promote Josh Satin, Josh Edgin, and Collin Cowgill.

Satin will finally be getting a chance at a starting role. He has put up fantastic numbers in the minors his whole career, but has largely been cast aside because of his age. A fifth-year senior at Cal-Berkeley, Satin played his first pro game at 23, much later than usual. At that point he was already far behind, so unless he shot up the ladder quickly, the odds were against him. He is hitting .306/.421/.491 with nine home runs in 259 plate appearances in Vegas.

Josh Edgin was the first pitcher dumped from this year’s bullpen. Edgin allowed ten runs in 9.1 innings before being sent to Double-A Binghamton to get his confidence back. He has been in the minors awhile between Binghamton and Las Vegas, appearing in 16 games, but putting up a 6.75 ERA. The Mets really had no other options besides Jack Leathersich, who is still in Double-A.

Last, but not least, the biggest surprise: Collin Cowgill. He was named everyday center fielder out of spring training, but really had a rough go in the regular season, batting .157/.173/.294 in 19 games. He has been decent in Vegas, but hasn’t done anything to get excited about. His .267/.358/.442 isn’t very impressive for someone who plays half his games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. He has done terribly on the road, batting just .152 with a .513 OPS, compared to .304 and .887 at home.

The Mets have off tomorrow but begin a three-game series with the Cardinals on Tuesday.

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Ankiel was once a decent power threat, but is far from threatening at the plate now.

Well, it was a nice run.

OK, not really. The Mets finally ended the Rick Ankiel experiment today, demoting him after a dreadful two weeks. Ankiel has been struggling at the plate the entire season, but has recently began striking out at a ridiculous rate, striking out three times in four at-bats today. It looks like the 33 year-old is finally done. And after hitting under .230 over the past three seasons, it’s not much of a surprise. The signing of Ankiel was another desperate move by Sandy Alderson, trying to make something out of nothing with presumably very little money to work with right now.

In Ankiel’s place comes the red-hot Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who, despite batting around .230, has been on a tremendous home run pace. He already has ten after just 36 games with Las Vegas. That’s 36 home runs stretched out to 130 games. That’s iimpressive for Nieuwenhuis, even when you take into account the hitter-friendly Cashman Field. However, the only thing he may be useful for right now is a power hitter off the bench. Looking deeper into his numbers, you see a huge disparity between his home and away numbers, much bigger than usual. He is batting .293/.376/.587 at home with six home runs, compared to .157/.286/.337 on the road, even in some of the other hitter-friendly ballparks in the Pacific Coast League. So while the power numbers (or at least the home run numbers) are impressive), late-game power and defense may be all Nieuwenhuis can provide.

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What a swing…

Really, his swing reminds me of some major leaguers right now. It’s smooth and natural. This is why the Mets picked him where they did, as opposed to a low ceiling college bat, which may have fit their immediate needs, but would not be the best for the long-term future.

The Mets were considered by many to be the biggest winners of the first round. And this is why.

Continue reading »]]> The Mets once again stuck to younger players in the early rounds of this year’s draft, picking three high schoolers in the first three rounds. Here is a roundup of the first five rounds of the draft.

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Dominic Smith, 1B/P out of Serra High School (California)

With their first pick, the Mets selected Dominic Smith 11th overall. Smith, 17, is a left-handed hitting first baseman out of Serra High School in the San Diego area. Smith was regarded as one of the best hitters in the draft, and was projected to go in the first half of the first round. He is also a pitcher, but his potential is far greater as a position player.

The Mets loved Smith and their area scout had been keeping tabs on him since he was 12 years old. Smith has one of the most natural swing of the draft, and has been compared to the likes of Todd Helton and Rafael Palmeiro. Here’s what Mets Amateur Scouting Director Tommy Tanous told ESPN New York about Smith:

“We felt going back to last spring, into the summer, that this was one of the most advanced high school hitters that you’ll find, The fact that he bats left-handed is even nicer. You don’t find a swing like this every year. We feel like we put a very offensive player and defensive player into the system. I’ve been scouting 18 years. I don’t think I’ve seen a first baseman play as an amateur that plays this kind of defense. This a well-rounded player — it’s hit and power and it’s a middle-of-the-order bat.”

Keith Law of ESPN also had some nice things to say about him:

Smith is one of the best pure hitters in the high school class, showing a smooth left-handed swing with power and a plus glove at first base. When he keeps his weight back, his swing is outstanding, with great balance through contact and good hip rotation to generate power from his legs. He has quick, strong wrists, with a projectable body that should lead to very hard contact when he fills out in three or four years.

It’s important to realize that this selection has likely nothing to do with the struggles of Ike Davis so far this season. Smith hasn’t turned 18 yet, so he is still years away from the majors. The Mets felt he was the best player available, and took him. He may very well be the best hitter in the draft. This front office has drafter high schoolers in the first round three years in a row, while almost completely ignoring need of the big league club. That’s a trap that Omar Minaya and his staff fell into towards the end of his tenure, drafting college relievers high up, hoping they could get the the Mets as fast as possible. It’s clear that the staff is just trying to stack the farm system, which, when rebuilding, is the most efficient way to piece together a homegrown roster.

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In the second round, the Mets chose RHP Andrew Church 48th overall in the second round. Church was ranked the 90th best prospect in the draft by Baseball America. Here’s what they had to say about him:

His fastball sits in the 89-92 mph range with some riding life and he’s dialed it up as high as 95. Church mixes in a mid-to-upper 70s curveball and a changeup and slider that are both in the 78-80 mph range. Church has swing-and-miss stuff and has cleaned up his delivery since the summer showcase circuit. A member of Team Vegas in the summer and fall, Church is committed to San Diego as part of the Torero’s outstanding class.

Church may be thought of as a reach as he was ranked significantly lower than many second-round picks, but it really isn’t as bad of a pick as it may appear on the surface. Church has played for three schools in his four years of high school, and doesn’t have the same amount of experience as his peers. That is one of the reasons why he was ranked much lower than 48th on most draft boards. In reality, he is a high risk, but also high reward pick.

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Here is a roundup of the rest of the Mets’ early-round picks with notes from MLB.com:

3rd Round: Ivan Wilson, CF, Ruston High School (Louisiana) R/R

Wilson’s combination of tools and athleticism is among the best of this year’s prep outfielders. He is listed at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds with good strength and plus speed. Wilson, out of Ruston H.S. (La.), has good power and can hit home runs to any part of the ballpark. He takes advantage of his power-speed combination thanks to good instincts on the basepaths. Wilson has excellent range in the outfield and enough arm for right field if he can’t stay in center field. By mid-May, he still hadn’t committed to college, leaving scouts wondering about his signability.

3rd Round: Casey Meisner, RHP Cypress Woods HS (TX)

Meisner is a rare Texas pitcher who remains projectable. Listed at 6-foot-7, 185 pounds (R/R), Meisner has touched 94 mph with his fastball, but more typically throws it around 90 mph. As he physically matures and learns to be more consistent in his delivery, scouts expect his fastball to eventually sit around 94 mph instead of just touching it. He also throws a curveball and changeup, both of which have a chance to be Major League-average offerings. Meisner has clean arm action, but struggles to repeat his delivery, which affects his command and velocity. He is committed to Texas Tech.

4th Round: L.J. Mazzilli, 2B, University of Connecticut R/R

The son of former big leaguer Lee Mazzilli was selected in the ninth round of the 2012 Draft by the Twins, but he opted to go back to UConn for his senior season. He responded with a solid all-around season that could very well help his Draft status. Mazzilli has a solid swing with decent bat speed and projects to keep hitting for average at the next level. He’s not a huge power guy, but he should run into a handful of home runs and could pile up the doubles. He’s an excellent baserunner who makes the most of his decent speed. Mazzilli has made progress on his defense and most feel he should be able to stay on the infield as an offensive-minded second baseman.

5th Round: Jared King, OF, Kansas State S/L

King is a solid college performer with good tools across the board. His best tool is his bat, and he has the chance to hit for both average and power. He has tremendous bat speed with a short stroke from both sides of the plate and the ball carries off his bat. He’s a solid average runner who might be better suited for a corner outfield spot and that could mean left given that his arm is his weakest tool. It’s his bat, though, that will get him drafted, and he might have enough to be taken off the board in the first few rounds.

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Rafael Montero has a 2.58 ERA on the season.

Who’s Hot

• Rafael Montero, RHP (BIN): Montero makes this list once again with another spectacular week for Binghamton. Every week it seems he is getting closer to big league-ready. The right-hander tossed 13 shutout innings this week over two starts, allowing just nine hits and three walks while striking out 12. That brings his total for the season to 71 strikeouts in only 66.1 innings. The guy has just been incredible and may find himself pitching for the Mets by the end of the season if he continues this pace.
• Luis Cessa, RHP (SAV): Cessa, a member of that dominant 2012 Brooklyn rotation, pitched 14.1 innings this week, allowing only one run on nine hits and two walks. He also struck out 17 on the week. In his second start, he threw 7.2 shutout innings, allowing just two hits while striking out ten batters.
• Allan Dykstra, 1B (BIN): Dykstra has been unable to stay healthy over the past few seasons but the former first-round pick, at age 26, is finally putting together a decent season. This week, he hit .381 with three home runs, driving in eight and drawing five walks in 28 plate appearances.

Honorable Mention: Josh Satin, 1B (LAS): Satin has been making a case for himself to play first base for the Mets, hitting at a tremendous pace lately. Satin is hitting .312 on the season with nine home runs and this week batted .444 with two homers and five walks.

Who’s Not

• Logan Verrett, RHP (BIN): Verrett only got one start this week, but it wasn’t pretty. In five innings, he let up eight runs on eleven hits, including two home runs while only striking out three. It’s good to see that he only walked one batter, so hopefully he can rebound and pitch well his next start. 
• Phillip Evans, SS (SAV): Evans has had a very tough season for Savannah, batting .188/.260/.242 on the year and this week, it was more of the same. The 15th-round pick hasn’t shown much power, hitting only one extra base-hit this week. His slash line was a meager .185/.172/.222 this week.
• Daniel Muno, 2B/SS (BIN): Muno would have gone hitless this week had it not been for a three-hit performance Saturday night, in which he hit a home run. He batted just .125 this week with four strikeouts in 29 trips to the plate.

*NOTE: Stats are 5/26 to 6/1

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Series Preview: Mets at Marlins

Tonight, the suddenly-streaking Mets begin a three-game series with the lowly Marlins down in Miami.

While it appeared early on that the Mets and Marlins would be “battling” for last place in the NL East, the gap between the two teams has widened considerably. The Marlins are by far, the worst team in baseball, coming in at 13-41, including 7-20 at home. The Marlins were already supposed to be one of the worst clubs in the league coming into this season, but a series of devastating injuries has put them on a whole new level of horrible. They are the only team in baseball with a winning percentage lower than .300 (.241) and they have lost nine games in a row. Of course, that hasn’t stopped the Mets from getting swept before, but the odds are certainly favoring them.

Offensively, the Marlins don’t have a single power threat. Their cleanup hitter in last night’s game against the Rays was Marcell Ozuna, who, although he is batting .314, has only one home run in 28 games. The Marlins have 12 players on the DL at the moment, including Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, and Casey Kotchman. Even with those players in the lineup, the offense is very weak, but without them, it’s the worst in baseball.

Nonetheless, the Mets are still not a good team and, as they’ve shown in the past, they could get swept, even with the momentum they have coming off a four-game sweep of the Yankees. Hopefully, however, the Mets won’t make it an interesting series and can get closer to a .500 record with a series win this weekend.

Offensive/Pitching Team Rankings

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Shaun Marcum, RHP (0-5, 5.77 ERA, 34.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9) vs. Jacob Turner, RHP (0-0, -.– ERA)

Turner is a former Tigers prospect who was rated very highly coming out of high school, selected ninth overall in the first round in 2009. He was the centerpiece of the deal last year that sent Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez to Detroit. He pitched well last season for the Marlins, posting a 3.38 ERA in seven starts, but has struggled badly this year in Triple-A, and had a 4.47 ERA in ten starts before being called up for game one of this series.

Game 2: Collin McHugh, RHP (0-0, 12.00 ERA, 3 IP, 2 K, 0 BB) vs. Jose Fernandez, RHP (2-3, 3.78 ERA, 52.1 IP, 8.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9)

Many were critical of the Marlins for calling up 20 year-old Fernandez too early this year, after he jumped from the High-A Florida State League to the majors. It was short-sighted and the Marlins could have done some real damage calling up such an inexperienced prospect to fill a short-term need, especially on a team as hopeless as the Marlins. However, the gamble has brought moderate success for Fernandez. He has struggled with his control at times, but he has still been arguably the best pitcher on the team.

Game 3: Matt Harvey, RHP (5-0, 1.85 ERA, 78 IP, 9.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) vs. Kevin Slowey, RHP (1-5, 3.59 ERA, 62.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9)

Slowey missed most of 2011 and all of 2012 with injury, but is currently having a career-year for Miami, posting career-bests in ERA and home runs per nine, while keeping up his career averages in walks and strikeouts per nine. He’s bound to cool off soon because he just isn’t a very good pitcher, but with the very weak Mets lineup, Matt Harvey may once again have to shutout the Marlins in order to win.

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Series Preview

This year, for the first time ever, the Mets and Yankees will be playing a four-game series with two games in Queens and two in the Bronx. After complaints from fans and new changes to the schedule this year, Bud Selig was forced to shorten these marquee interleague rivalries from six games to four. That’s probably a good thing for the Mets considering how good the Yankees are this year, and how bad the Mets have played thus far.

This year, the Yankees have been devastated by injuries. In fact, the payroll of those players on the DL is approaching $100 million, which is higher than the actual payroll of about half of baseball. Nonetheless, against all odds, the Yankees are tied for first place atop the American League East at 30-19. They haven’t scored as many runs as a typical Yankee team would, and they are actually the lowest-scoring team in the division, but they have gotten stellar pitching from both the bullpen and starting rotation. Andy Pettitte returned and has continued to be a rock the Yankees can rely on. C.C. Sabathia has been a workhorse, tossing 72.2 innings in 11 starts. Thankfully, however, the Mets will not have to face either of those two as they get the bottom of the rotation. The bottom half is still nothing to joke about, as Hiroki Kuroda and David Phelps each have sub-four ERAs in the still-tough AL East.

The bullpen hasn’t been as good as the rotation, but it’s been one of the better units in the game, even after losing Rafael Soriano to free agency last offseason. The ‘pen ranks 11th in baseball in ERA and fourth in batting average agains with men on base. Mariano Rivera hasn’t pitched at all like a 43 year-old, posting a 1.40 ERA in 19.1 innings this year. He has given up just 14 hits and two walks while striking out 16. He hasn’t allowed a run since May 4 against Oakland.

All in all, this team is one of the best the Mets have faced all season, even despite the injuries the Yankees have suffered. It could be a long four days.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Jon Niese, LHP (3-5, 4.80 ERA, 54.1 IP, 5.1 K/9, 4.5 BB/9) vs. Phil Hughes, RHP (2-3, 5.51 ERA, 47.1 IP, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9)

Hughes has been inconsistent over his seven-year career with the Yankees, and has some convinced that his best role would be in the bullpen. After posting a 4.23 ERA in 191.1 innings last season, Hughes’s ERA has gone up, and is now at 5.51. His strikeout and walk numbers are right where they should be, but he is giving up more home runs than ever, almost two per nine innings. He is getting hurt badly on his fastball which, after being average last year, has been worth about seven runs below average this season, meaning hitters are hitting it, and hitting it hard. He has already given up ten homers on the season, eight of which have come off fastballs.

Game 2: Matt Harvey, RHP (5-0, 1.93 ERA, 70 IP, 9.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) vs. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (6-3, 2.67 ERA, 60.2 IP, 5.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9)

Kuroda, even at age 38, has continued to dominate. Despite moving to the American League two years ago, he has held steady. This season, his ERA is a career-best 2.67 through ten starts. He doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, but he gets ground balls more frequently than most without allowing many walks. And unlike Hughes, Kuroda hasn’t given up many home runs this year, despite pitching most of his games at Yankee Stadium.

Game 3: Jeremy Hefner, RHP (0-5, 4.76 ERA, 51 IP, 6.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9) vs. David Phelps, RHP (3-2, 3.96 ERA, 50 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9)

Phelps, 26, slowly pitched his way through the minors after being taken in the 14th round in the 2008 draft, and pitched well at every level before earning a promotion to the big leagues last year. He started 11 games due to injuries in the starting rotation, and posted a very solid 3.34 ERA. This season, he again got the nod due to injury, and has a 3.27 ERA as a starter. In his last start in Tampa Bay, his pitching arm was struck by a line drive. However, he suffered only a bruise and will most likely be out there for his start on Wednesday.

Game 4: Dillon Gee, RHP (2-6, 6.34 ERA, 49.2 IP, 6.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9) vs. Vidal Nuno, LHP (1-1, 1.93 ERA, 14 IP, 4.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9)

Nuno, a 48th-round pick, isn’t a big name, but has certainly earned an opportunity with his domination of the minors the past two seasons. After bouncing around for a while, even pitching for an independent league team, Nuno, posted a 2.54 ERA in 21 starts between Single-A and Double-A last year. This season, he had a 1.54 ERA in four starts before earning the promotion. So far, he has been a solid option for the Yankees as a swingman.

Series Notes

• Curtis Granderson, who just got back from the DL, will have to sit out another month thanks to a broken finger he suffered earlier this week after getting hit in the hand by a pitch. Granderson hit 43 home runs last season. However, he only batted .232 (compared to .262 in 2011) and struck out in 28.5 % of his trips to the plate.
• Lucas Duda extended his hitting streak to a career-best 10 games going 3-4 last night…Duda is hitting .351 (13-37) during his run, which dates to May 16…His previous best was a seven-game hitting streak done two previous times, last, June 16-24, 2012.
• David Wright is tied with Mike Piazza and Cliff Floyd for the most regular season home runs by a Met against the Yankees with eight.
• Bobby Parnell converted his fifth straight save chance last night in New York’s 4-2 win vs. Atlanta…Parnell is 3-1 with five saves in May and has been unscored upon in 10 of his 11 games this month.
• Daniel Murphy has at least one hit in 11 of his last 14 games,batting .400 (22-55) with two home runs and eight RBI over that clip.Murphy has 15 doubles, tied for the second-most in the NL…He has seven doubles this month, tied for the sixth-most in the NL…Since the start of the 2012 season, Murphy has 55 doubles, the third-most in the National League, two behind Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt and one behind Milwaukee’s Aramis Ramirez.
• Since 2009, the Mets are 0-3-1 in season series vs. the Yankees…The Mets have dropped five straight individual series to their crosstown rival…The last series the Mets won was May 21-23, 2010 at Citi Field…The last time the Mets won the season series vs. the Yankees was in 2008 (4-2)…The Mets are 2-8-6 in all-time season series against the Yankees.
• The Mets along with the other 29 teams will wear specially designed caps and jerseys featuring an authentic military digital camouflage design licensed from the United States Marine Corps tonight…MLB will donate 100 percent of its net proceeds from sales of the caps and jerseys to Welcome Back Veterans…Since 2008, MLB has committed $23 million to Welcome Back Veterans.

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Opposing hitters don’t stand a chance against Rafael Montero right now.

Who’s Hot

• Rafael Montero, RHP (BIN): Montero has had an incredible season and had an incredible two starts this week. After being called up to make a spot start for Las Vegas, Montero shut down the Iowa Cubs, limiting them to two runs on four hits in seven innings. Going back to Binghamton later in the week didn’t phase him one bit, as he tossed six shutout frames against the Portland Sea Dogs, striking out eight and walking two. In all, Montero pitched 13 innings this week and struck out 13 batters while walking just three.
• Josh Rodriguez, SS (BIN): Rodriguez probably had the best week at the plate in the Mets organization. Rodriguez, 28, hit .538 this week with one home run, four runs batted in, and seven walks, putting his OPS at an astounding 1.405 for the week.
• Matthew Bowman, RHP (STL): Bowman had an excellent week, posting a 2.57 ERA in two starts. He tossed 14 innings and allowed four runs on 14 hits. Most impressive, however, were his 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio. Bowman has quietly had a very good season and was one of the first players to earn a promotion this season after posting a 2.64 ERA in 30.2 innings in Savannah. So far in St. Lucie, he has a 2.33 ERA in 27 innings.

Honorable Mention: Francisco Pena, C (LAS): Pena has been on fire since his promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas last week. Since getting bumped up, he is hitting .384 with two home runs. He is driving the ball well, tripling his career line drave rate. If he can keep this up, Anthony Recker‘s backup catcher spot may be in danger by the end of the year.

Who’s Not

• D.J. Mitchell, RHP (LAS): Mitchell has had a very tough week. The former Yankees farmhand, who was picked up by the Mets earlier this year, has had two straight bad starts for Las Vegas. In his last outing, he lasted just 2.2 innings and allowed four runs on five hits before being pulled. Before that, he lasted just four innings and gave up five runs on seven hits.
• Cory Vaughn, OF (BIN): Vaughn has been impressive for most of the season, but this past week, he struggled. He hit just .207 with ten strikeouts in 31 plate appearances. Luckily, Vaughn is still hitting .287 on the year with a .814 OPS and .383 wOBA to go along with his five homers. This week was just a minor setback in what has been a breakout year.
• Gilbert Gomez, OF (STL): Gomez has had a really difficult time adjusting to his first taste of major playing time in the Florida State League. He is hitting just .224 on the season with a concerning 61.3% ground ball rate. Gomez has seen his line drive rate fall below 10% this season as well. This week, he hit .087 with eight strikeouts in 27 trips to the plate.

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Sandy Alderson told reporters today that the organization will limit top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to 180 to 185 innings this season, likely meaning he will have to go through an end-of-season shutdown, similar to Matt Harvey last year.

Alderson said the organization prefers to add no more than 30 innings per year to a pitcher’s workload. Wheeler pitched 149 innings last season and 115 in 2011. So far this season, Wheeler, in nine starts, has accumulated 48.1.

Wheeler, 22, has posted a 3.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in those 48.1 innings. He has struck out 49 (9.1 K/9) and walked 20 (3.7 BB/9) this season. Wheeler returned to the Las Vegas 51s last week after missing a start due to an inflamed AC Joint. He is likely to join the Mets towards the middle or end of June, once the Mets feel he won’t be in danger of achieving Super Two status, giving him an extra year of arbitration.

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Shin-Soo Choo Could be a target for the Mets this winter.

In a recent interview with Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog, ESPN’s Buster Olney talked about the free agent market, specifically how the Mets will have to approach the offseason in order to land some of the best players on the market:

For example, take Shin-Soo Choo, who is a free agent this fall. I think the Mets will have to do what the Mariners had had to do, in recent years with position players, and overpay Choo. He’s a terrific player, but they’ll be competing against other teams that are in a better position to win than the Mets. And the way you overcome that, if you’re the Mets, is to spend a lot of money. Is that the right thing to do? I don’t think you want to just spend a lot of money on a lot of different players and not know if it fits, just look at the Dodgers. But, at some point, you do have to have that foundation in place so that you can lure other players, veterans, to want to play for your team. And that’s going to be an important step for the Mets.

Olney is right to some extent. It makes sense that a team with the third-worst record in baseball would have trouble attracting free agents, but it will be important to see how the rest of the season plays out in order to judge to what extreme that will be the case. I’m not talking about whether the Mets make the playoffs, but more whether a free agent can look at the organization and see a team with a solid foundation. The Mets could finish a 70-win team led offensively by the likes of John Buck and Marlon Byrd, or they could finish with 70 wins with production coming from Juan Lagares, Jordany Valdespin, and others. A free agent could look at the team and see Shaun Marcum as the team’s second-best pitcher, or they could see Zack Wheeler, in which case, I think they would be much more willing to sign. This applies  more to free agents on the younger side rather than someone like Carlos Beltran, however, because it would mean the team is still a year or even two, away from being a contender. The Mets probably would not be going after anyone over 35 or 36 anyway, so that wouldn’t  be a problem.

Of course, if it were a choice between the Giants and Mets, a free agent would likely choose San Francisco, but if the Mets were to offer a little bit more, they could land that free agent. However, they would probably have to overpay possible 10 or even 20 million more if their record this year was “empty,” or mostly fueled by the production of veterans, with disappointing performances from Zack Wheeler, Travis d’Arnaud, and the other young players on the roster.

As for the free agent market itself, it is weak in comparison to past years, but there is still an opportunity for the Mets to make big upgrades. The market doesn’t have the same kind of depth that it has had in years past, likely fueled by more teams signing pre-arbitration players and young arbitration players to team-friendly extensions. A few of the younger prospective free agents signed long-term deals with their teams the past two years, including Carlos Gomez and Adam Wainwright, but again, there are still viable options available. Here is a brief look at some of the players who could hit the market this winter:

• Corey Hart 1B/OF: Hart could be a solution at first base if Ike Davis‘s struggles continue for the rest of the season, or in the outfield if Davis has a solid ending to the season. Hart, 31, is still out after having knee surgery in late-January, and has suffered a few setbacks. However, it is expected that he will return some time next month. This could make him at least a little bit cheaper if teams are afraid of this injury recurring. Hart has emerged as a pretty good power hitter, knocking 30 home runs last season, slugging .507, and posting a .358 wOBA.
• Shin-Soo Choo OF: Choo may be one of the best fits for the Mets, but he will come at a huge cost. He is a Scott Boras client and is having an incredible season, which will drive up his asking price tremendously. He has nine home runs through 45 games, on pace for a career-best. He has a .293/.441/.523 (his OBP is fluffed up by 12 HBPs) batting line this season along with five stolen bases. Choo will command a high price,, which makes him signing with the Mets less likely than Corey Hart.
•  Jacoby Ellsbury OF: Another Scott Boras client, however unlike Choo, Ellsbury is really struggling this season, and had a terrible year last season as well. Since putting up a .928 OPS with 32 home runs and 39 stolen bases in 2011, Ellsbury has just a .670 OPS with five home runs in 122 games. Looking at his career numbers, 2011 seems to be the outlier, and the only season Ellsbury showed any kind of power. Before 2011, he was only known as a speed guy. It’s really tough to say how much Ellsbury will cost because there are just so many things in play right now.
• Hunter Pence OF: Pence is one of the less flashy options that will be on the market come November, but he can provide much-needed power for the Mets. Pence is a very low On-Base Percentage guy who doesn’t walk much, but can hit 20 to 25 home runs. He had a down year by his standards last season, batting only .253 and was only slightly above league average with a 102 OPS+, however, he has bounced back this season with a 126 OPS+, seven home runs, and a .274 batting average through 48 games with the Giants.
• Matt Garza RHP: The Mets will have their hands full shoring up first base and the outfield, but may need to add a starting pitcher as well if Dillon Gee doesn’t improve. Garza, who just came off the DL, had a solid season last year, his second with Chicago, posting a 3.91 ERA in 103.1 innings. He missed the last two plus months with elbow problems. His value will be largely dictated on how he performs this season.
• Grant Balfour, RHP: Despite Alderson’s efforts, this year’s bullpen is only slightly better than last. Although there are some pieces that can be salvaged, they could need another back-end reliever. Balfour, 35, is on the older side but has been consistent, which you do’t often find with non-closer relief options (although Balfour has closed for parts of the past two seasons). Over the last four year, Balfour has an excellent 2.34 ERA in 211.1 innings.
• Other Options: Ryan Madson and Joel Hanrahan are two low-risk, high reward relief options with proven track records who could fill out the bullpen. Other options at first base that may be a bit cheaper include Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, and Mike Morse. In the outfield, there is David Murphy, Delmon Young, Jeff Francoeur (laughs!), and Nelson Cruz.

Prospects like Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud, and others may end up being the keys to the Mets’ offseason plans. If they can succeed, the Mets could save quite a few million on a possible offseason spending spree. Those players will not only have an impact by playing well themselves, but could also help attract free agents.The Mets will have a ton of money to spend (that is, if the Wilpons are willing to fork over the money, which is another story entirely). Hopefully they’ll spend it right.