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Who’s Hot

• Rainy Lara, RHP (SAV): Lara has put together one of the best weeks we’ve seen from a minor league pitcher so far. In two starts, he has tossed 16 (no that’s not a typo) shutout innings for Savannah. Even better, he has allowed only four hits during that span while walking just two and striking out 18. One of the unsung heroes of the Brooklyn rotation last year, Lara is putting his name out there as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. He could earn a promotion to St. Lucie soon if he keeps this up.
• Eric Campbell, OF (LAS): Campbell and the rest of the Las Vegas lineup have been tearing the cover off the ball lately. After getting off to a very cold start, Campbell has been on fire, hitting .533 this week with a 1.230 OPS. As someone who can hit lefties well, Campbell has an outside shot at making the big league club this season if someone gets hurt.
• Zach Lutz, 3B (LAS): Lutz is making a case for himself to replace the struggling Ike Davis at first base. Lutz, about to turn 27, may finally get the big break he deserves. This week, he hit .476 with a 1.399 OPS, a home run, three doubles, and a triple.

Honorable Mention: Rylan Sandoval, IF (STL): Sandoval, a 30th-round pick in 2007, has been relatively unknown. This is his third year in St. Lucie, but has only had about a full season worth of playing time. He hit .529 this week with two doubles and a 1.203 OPS in 18 plate appearances.

Who’s Not

• Phillip Evans, SS (SAV): Evans made a name for himself in Brooklyn after being picked in the 15th round in the 2011 draft. Evans had the talent of a early-round pick, but dropped only because of signability concerns. Evans proved last year why there was so much hype around him, but has gone cold recently.
• Alonzo Harris, OF (BIN): Harris is another guy who had a breakout season last year but has struggled this season. He had a tough week at the plate, batting .118 with only one extra-base hit and a meager .376 OPS.
• Matthew Reynolds, SS (STL): Reynolds, the Mets’ second-round pick last season, is batting just .200 in the month of May, and has been even worse lately. He hit .125 this week with only a single extra-base hit and five strikeouts in 27 trips to the plate.

Remember, if you have any minor league questions, send them in to the Mets Minor League Mailbag at metsminorleaguemailbag@gmail.com!

Continue reading »]]> Most of the attention concerning the Met outfield the past few weeks has gone to Jordany Valdespin, both for his character and his play on the field. However, there has been one player who has very quietly got on a roll, and may be able to plug a hole in the still-fluctuating outfield: Marlon Byrd.

Byrd captured the attention of Mets fans and earned himself a spot on the roster with an incredible spring training, in which he hit .357 with a .965 OPS and a team-leading nine doubles, five more than anyone else on the team. However, once the calender turned and regular season play began, Byrd struggled, and was relegated to a lesser role. He finished the month of April with a .232 batting average and a .759 OPS.

Since May began, Byrd has turned it on at the plate. Despite having a diminished role, Byrd has hit .357 with a  .988 OPS this month along with two home runs in 29 plate appearances.

The reason for Byrd’s decline over the past two seasons (other than just getting a little bit older) may very well be his plate discipline. Byrd, in his best years, was swinging at pitches outside the strike zone somewhere in the range of 29 to 30% of the time. That number has increased to the high-30% range over the past few years. This year, he is swinging at a career high 40.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, but recently, has improved on that dramatically. He stuck out in almost 32% of his plate appearances in April, striking out at least once in almost every game, but has lowered that significantly, to just 24% this month.

Compared to the rest of the outfield recently, Byrd has been by far the best hitter. Here is how he compares to the rest of the outfield this month:

Byrd has been overlooked the entire season, when in reality, he one of the best options the Mets have on the 40-man roster. Remember, not too long ago, Byrd was a reliable 10-15 home run hitter with a .280-.290 batting average, which isn’t great, but it is certainly better than the struggling Mike Baxter.

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Zack Wheeler has 40 strikeouts this season(in 36 IP), tied for second in the Pacific Coast League. However, he has also walked 17, tied for fourth-worst in the PCL.

This one comes from Jay via email:

When do you think Wheeler will get the major league call up and how large of an impact do you see him having on this season?

If Zack Wheeler continues to mix his pitches and keep hitters guessing, which made him so devastating last year, he will be with the Mets sooner rather than later. According to all accounts, he failed to mix up his pitches over his first few starts, becoming predictable and hittable, something he has reportedly improved on in his last few starts. There is no question about talent. This guy’s got it. He has the pure stuff to match up against most major league pitchers right now. It will be control of those deadly pitches that will determine the path of his career.

As for the immediate future, my best guess is Wheeler makes his debut in late June or early July, for a few reasons, the first being his MLB-readiness. After his struggles early on, it’s clear that Wheeler isn’t quite ready for the majors yet. The staff in Triple-A 9s still tinkering and perfecting his mechanics, which may have been a contributing factor to his control problems in early April. Once he gets those last few kinks out, he will be ready, but he isn’t ready yet.

The second and probably most significant reason long-term for the Mets, is the cost of bringing Wheeler up too early. You see, if he’s brought up any time before mid-June, he may be eligible for Super Two status. That means he gets an extra year of arbitration. That doesn’t mean the Mets keep him for another year, it just means that one of his pre-arb years in which the Mets would determine his salary would be eliminated and replaced with an etra year of arbitration. Why is that significant? Well, the cost adds up. If he is a success like the Mets hope he will be, his fourth (and last) arbitration year could be very costly. Overall, Super Two players cost their organizations an average of $12 million more than a non-Super Two player, according to Amazin’ Avenue. In an organization where value is very important, the Mets aren’t going to rush Wheeler, especially in a year where the playoffs are probably out of reach regardless of what the Mets do with him.

To answer the second part of your question, his impact could be significant. Once he comes up, he will certainly jump into the rotation full-time, so he will have a big impact whether he is a success or not. How good will he be? That, however, is the most important question and unfortunately, the only one that can’t be answered.

Have a question about the Mets minor league system? Send them in to metsminorleaguemailbag@gmail.com

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Kevin Plawecki is leading the South Atlantic League in hitting.

Welcome to the second edition of Who’s Hot, Who’s Not. This week was a very intriguing one for followers of the Mets minor league system. We saw the rise of two top pitching prospects, and the fall of one who had been absolutely dominant. We also saw Kevin Plawecki continue to show why the Mets made him a first-round pick two years ago. He leads off our Hot List…

Who’s Hot

•  Kevin Plawecki, C (SAV): Plawecki continues to rake and prove that he is too advanced for the South Atlantic League. In a stadium  in which hits are hard to come by, Plawecki has hit the cover off the ball, and put up very good power numbers. This week, he hit .438 with a .500 On-Base Percentage and slugged .750. He is currently leading the league in average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, doubles, and total bases.
• Noah Syndergaard, RHP (STL): After giving up seven runs against Fort Myers on April 18, Syndergaard has been lights out, tossing three straight terrific outings. In his two starts this week, he allowed just two runs (one earned) on 13 hits in 13 innings. Even more impressive, he struck out 12 and walked just three.
• Zack Wheeler, RHP (LAV): Wheeler, after some awful early-season struggles, has bounced back well. This week, he allowed one run on eight hits over 12.2 innings, while walking just two batters. He has also been throwing more strikes, which is the key to him reaching the majors. Wheeler has started using his breaking ball again, which may be the reason he has been able to put it back together on the mound.

Honorable Mention: Travis Taijeron, OF (STL): Taijeron was on fire this week, hitting six doubles an batting .500 and getting on base in well over 50% of his plate appearances. Taijeron struggled in the second half, so it’s great to see him be able to put it back together again.

Who’s Not

• Rafael Montero, RHP (BIN): Montero was on fire last week, making last week’s Hot List. This week, however, was a completely different story for Montero. In one start, he tossed 6.2 innings but allowed ten runs (seven of them earned) on ten hits against Erie. That came after five straight starts of alloweing two runs or less to start the season.
• Jacob deGrom, RHP (BIN): DeGrom had one so-so start and one bad start this week for Binghamton. In his first against Akron, he allowed five runs on seven hits (including two home runs) against Akron. In the second, he gave up three in six innings. However, for the entire week, he was only able to strike out three batters in 11.1 innings. It’s only two starts, but deGrom averaged almost eight strikeouts per nine innings last season.
• Brian Bixler, SS (LAV): Bixler, who signed as a minor league free agent this offseason, had a very tough week at the plate, batting .150/.190/.150 with no extra-base hits and five strikeouts in 20 at-bats.

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The Braves acquired both Upton brothers this offseason.

The Braves made headlines this offseason with their acquisition of B.J. Upton in November, signing him to a five year deal worth about $75 million. However, just when the offseason was winding down and it appeared the Braves were done, they surprised everyone and acquired B.J.’s brother Justin from the Diamondbacks. The tandem added a boost to the Atlanta offense that they so badly needed, and had some experts picking them to challenge the Nationals for the NL crown.

Thus far, it appears the Braves made the right move, at least with Justin Upton. If the season ended today, he would be the unanimous MVP. Upton is leading the majors with 12 home runs, three more than anyone else. That, to go along with a not-too-shabby .287/.387/.693 has carried the otherwise mediocre Braves offense.

In reality, it has been the pitching that has carried the Atlanta Braves this season. Despite trading Tommy Hanson this winter, the Braves lead baseball in team ERA with an outstanding 3.10 mark coming into today’s action. More specifically, it has been their bullpen, which has been even stronger than last year’s. Craig Kimbrel has continued his dominance, striking out 15 batters in 10.2 innings. Kimbrel and Jordan Walden, who the Braves received in the Tommy Hanson trade, are among five relievers with at least ten innings pitched and an ERA under two. Compare that to the Mets, who have two such pitchers.

This Braves team is good (yes, even better than the Marlins if you can believe it) and will put up a very tough fight, especially in close games. The key for the Mets will be scoring runs off their starting pitching, because  if they trail in the late innings, the odds are stacked against them.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Shaun Marcum (5.2 IP, 50 ERA+, 1.33 K/BB) vs. Mike Minor (31.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 5.40 K/BB)

Minor, 25, was selected seventh overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves and quickly rose to stardom in their minor league system. Once he reached the big leagues, he never pitched like the ace some thought he could become. Minor came into the season with a career ERA of 4.37 in 302.2 career innings. This year, however, has been much better for him, at least so far. Over five starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and career-best 1.4 BB/9 rate. He was roughed up for six runs in 6.2 innings against the juggernaut Detroit offense, but had a 1.80 ERA in four starts coming into that outing.

Game 2: Jonathon Niese (32.2 IP, 112 ERA+, 1.31 K/BB) vs. Julio Teheran (28.1 IP, 77 ERA+, 2.50 K/BB)

Teheran has been a highly-regarded prospect since his breakout year in the minors in 2009. He worked his way through the minors fairly quickly, until stalling at Triple-A last season. Coming off a dominant season in Triple-A in 2011, Teheran failed to earn a job out of spring training, and was sent back. Once he was back in the minors, Teheran wasn’t the same pitcher. His 3.0 walks per nine wasn’t terrible, but his 6.7 strikeouts was a career-low. What was most concerning was the 18 home runs he gave up, doubling his previous career-worst of nine. Teheran has a 5.08 ERA in five starts, striking out 20 and walking eight in 28.1 innings.

Game 3: Matt Harvey (40.1 IP, 237 ERA+, 3.83 K/BB) vs. Tim Hudson (35 IP, 101 ERA+, 2.18 K/BB)

Even at age 37, Hudson continues to be the rock of the Atlanta rotation. In 11 of his past 12 seasons, Hudson has posted an ERA below four. This year, he has a 3.86 ERA in 35 innings over six starts. In his last outing, Hudson shut down the Nationals, holding them to one run on three hits in seven innings on only 96 pitches.

Series News & Notes

• The Mets sent down a struggling Collin Cowgill today in favor of the red-hot Andrew Brown, who has been tearing it up with the Las Vegas 51s. Brown was hitting .367 with a .440 On-Base Percentage and two home runs in 25 games.
• Jordany Valdespin slugged a three-run pinch-hit home run on Wednesday to give the Mets a 5-4 lead…It was the Mets first pinch-hit home run of the year and the sixth pinch-hit of Valdespin’s brief career…He is tied for second all-time on the club’s pinch-hit home run list.
• New York has scored three or fewer runs in eight of itslast 12 games and is hitting .202 (89-441) over that span…Overall, the Mets are seventh in the majors scoring 4.85 runs per game.
• Craig Kimbrel recorded his 98th career save Monday in Atlanta’s 3-2 win over Washington…Kimbrel’s career save percentage of 89.1 (98/110) ranks fi fth all-time among pitchers with at least 100 save opportunities (see chart at right)…According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the quickest anyone has ever reached 100 career saves was Eric Gagne, who did in his 104th opportunity, followed by John Smoltz (107th) and Joakim Soria (112th)…Kimbrel could tie Soria for third all time if he can convert each of his next two opportunities.
• The Atlanta bullpen’s homerless streak was snapped at 21 games last Friday (April 26) at Detroit when reliever Anthony Varvaro surrendered a three-run shot in the fourth inning…Since the franchise moved to Atlanta (1966), that was the furthest into a season (21 games) that a Braves team has gone without the bullpen allowing a home run.

Continue reading »]]> Somehow, the Miami Marlins are playing worse than they were expected to. As it stands right now, the Martlins are 6-19. That’s a .240 winning percentage, which is even worse than the Astros, who are at .280 this season. On offense, the Marlins are dead last in baseball in runs scored, OPS, and home runs, among other categories. They are scoring only about 2.7 runs per game, and their pitching staff hasn’t been much better. After gutting their rotation of all but some youngsters and Ricky Nolasco in the massive trade with the Blue Jays, their starters now have a 4.26 ERA, 20th in baseball. Their bullpen, although not as bad as the Mets’, is 27th in the majors in ERA at 4.57. Steve Cishek and Chad Qualls aren’t exactly the kind of pitchers who make you fear trailing late  in a game.

The only decent player on Miami’s roster is Giancarlo Stanton, of course, but even he has been on-and-off this season. He didn’t hit his first home run until his 18th game of the season two nights ago against the Cubs. He went on to hit two on Sunday, but his power numbers still have left much to be desired. His walk numbers and BABIP are at normal levels for Stanton, so perhaps it’s the shoulder contusion that Stanton suffered a few weeks ago which has been bringing down his production.

Overall, the Marlins are a team the Mets should handily beat. Although some cynics predicted the Mets to compete with the Marlins for last place, that seems unlikely with the way the Marlins have started the season. Hopefully the Mets will be able to use this series to get back on track.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey, RHP (35 IP, 233 ERA+, 3.90 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez, RHP (20 IP, 84 ERA+, 2.38 K/BB)

The Mets saw Fernandez make his big league debut against them on April 7, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings while striking out eight. He has had one good start and two iffy ones since then. In his last start, which came against Minnesota, he gave up four runs on six hits in five innings. In his start before that, he gave up five earned in four innings against the Reds. One thing to take note of in game one of this series will be Fernandez’s pitch count. The Marlins have coddled him thus far, keeping him around 8- pitches in each of his starts.

Game 2: Jeremy Hefner, RHP (21 IP, 70 ERA+, 1.09 K/BB) vs. Kevin Slowey, RHP (29.2 IP, 155 ERA+, 3.50 K/BB)

After spending an injury-riddled 2012 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, the once top prospect Slowey got another shot with the Marlins. Slowey has been their best pitcher so far, putting up a team-best 2.43 ERA. It’s hard to say long-term whether Slowey can hold up, but he has been very good so far and keeping his walk numbers down, which he has always been known for. In his last start against the Cubs, Slowey gave up three runs in six innings while striking out six and not walking a batter.

Game 3: Dillon Gee, RHP (25.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB) vs. Wade LeBlanc, LHP (24.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB)

LeBlanc was traded to Miami for John Baker in November 2011 after four years with the Padres. LeBlanc spent last season as a starter and reliever for the Marlins, posting a 3.67 ERA in 25 games, nine of them starts. He hasn’t been as terrible as his numbers might say. His ERA is inflated from his April 15 start in which he let up seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Nationals. He has otherwise been decent. In his last start against Chicago, he gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings.

Series News & Notes

• Adeiny Hechavarria, who you might remember from the last series these two teams played, suffered a bruised elbow on April 16 and was placed on the disabled list the next day. Hechavattia went 4-for-10 in the last series against the Mets in early April.
• New York embarks on its second road trip of the year with three games in Miami and then three contests in Atlanta…The Mets will play 13 of their next 19 away from Citi Field…New York went 3-5 on its first road trip of the season…The Mets were 38-43 on the road in 2012.
• David Wright is tied for second in the majors with 19 walks and Lucas Duda is tied for fourth in the majors with 18…The Mets have drawn 87 walks, tied for the fifth-most in the majors.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in 17 of their 23 games and 25 on the year, tied for the sixth-most in the National League…The Mets have hit three grand slams to lead the majors.
• John Buck’s eight home runs tie him for the third-most by a Met during the month of April with Dave Kingman (1982), Jeff Kent (1994), Todd Hundley (1996) and Mike Piazza(2001)…Carlos Delgado (2006) and Dave Kingman (1976) hold the club record with nine home runs in the month of April.

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Kevin Plawecki

Welcome to the first post in a weekly series called “Who’s Hot, Who’s Not,” in which we look at the hottest and coldest players in the Mets’ minor league system from the past week. Here’s a look back at the week that was. NOTE: Stats are from April 20 through April 27.

Who’s Hot

• Jayce Boyd 1B (SAV)- Boyd has come out of nowhere this season, hitting .405/.490/.583 through his first 22 games with two homers and nine doubles, the same number he had in 54 games with the Brooklyn Cyclones last year. With Brooklyn, Boyd hit just .239/.320/.368 with five home runs. The 2012 sixth-round pick batted .500/.581/.769 with a home run and four doubles. 
• Kevin Plawecki C (SAV)- Boyd and Plawecki have led the offensive charge for Savannah this season and are two big reasons why they have gotten off to such a hot start. The power-hitting Plawecki already hit four homers through his first 21 games, including one last week. Las week, Plawecki batted an impressive .440/.483/.680 with three doubles to go along with his home run.
• Rafael Montero RHP (BIN)- Montero has been terrific thus far for Binghamton,putting up a 1.99 ERA in 27.2 innings and a ridiculous 11.6 K/9 rate, having some Mets fans calling for a promotion to the big leagues. While that is unlikely, Montero may soon earn a promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. This past week, Montero, in two starts, allowed two runs in 11 innings while striking out 14 and walking just two.

Honorable Mention: Domingo Tapia RHP (STL)- It was almost a toss-up between Rafael Montero and Domingo Tapia. Both put up very impressive numbers this week. Tapia tossed 12.2 innings in two starts, allowed four runs (only two earned) and struck out 11. He has a 2.51 ERA in 25.1 innings over five starts.

Who’s Not

• Brandon Nimmo OF (SAV)- After a very hot start, Nimmo has gone ice cold, hitting well under the Mendoza line at just .091 over the last week. His .286 On-Base Percentage and .182 Slugging Percentage are also far worse than what we saw earlier in the season from Nimmo. Hopefully he can turn it around soon.
• Cam Maron C (STL)- Maron also started off the season well, hitting .286 through ten games but has struggled since. His batting average has now dropped below .240. This week, he hit .154/.1185/.154.
• Collin McHugh RHP (LAS)- McHugh has allowed only one earned run through 18 innings this season before two bad starts this week. Over 12.1 innings, McHugh got walloped for 20 hits and nine runs allowed, striking out just seven. This kind of week happens to every Vegas pitcher, and isn’t something to be concerned about unless it carries on over his next few starts.

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Ryan Howard is not the player he used to be.

The Mets begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at Citizens Bank Park, their first road series of the year and their first against a decent team.

Tha Phillies are currently at a crossroads. Where health and age meet talent. The Phillies are getting older, and this may be their last year to make a run at the World Series, although it’s very unlikely. The Phillies went 81-81 last season, spending half the year without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They have both back this year, but neither is the same player they used to be. Howard struck out in a career-high 33.9% of his plate appearances, while batting just .219. 57.1% of the balls he hit last year were ground balls. That’s significantly higher than his 39.4% career average, and a bad sign for a slugger. Utley has been slowly losing his power. His Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISO) was just .173 last season, compared to a .213 career average. A healthy spring training does not necessarily mean a better year for those two either, as they are both another year older and another year slower.

The pitching staff isn’t looking much better, either. After losing Joe Blanton and Vance Worley, the Phillies’ once-great rotation is lacking depth. And although it appears Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are as good as ever, Roy Halladay is showing signs of age. He had a 4.49 ERA in 25 starts last year, and hasn’t looked much better this year.

While there is an outside chance the Phillies make the playoffs, it’s unlikely. They are only a shell of the group that dominated the division a few years ago, and they will only be getting worse from here as their expensive assets become less tradeable with age. Nonetheless, they are probably about on-par with the Mets right now, which will make this series a fun one to watch.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey (2012: 59.1 IP, 141 ERA+, 2.69 K/BB) vs. Roy Halladay (2012: 156.1 IP, 89 ERA+, 3.67 K/BB)

Halladay hasn’t been himself lately, struggling this spring and in his first start, in which he went 3.1 innings, allowing five runs and two home runs. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com talked to a scout about Hallday. Here is some of what he said:

“If you didn’t know it was Roy Halladay out there,” he said, “you would say, ‘This guy looks like a journeyman.’”

A journeyman. For more than a decade, that would have been the last word anyone ever would have attached to a description of Roy Halladay. But now he finds himself a few weeks from his 36th birthday with more than 33,000 pitches on the odometer. And all of a sudden, the same scout said, “he looks like a guy who doesn’t have a whole lot left in his tank.”

“I didn’t see anything alarming,” the scout went on. “Nothing where you’d say he’s doing this or doing that, and that’s what was wrong. I just think he’s thrown a lot of pitches over the years. He’s always kept himself in great shape, so it isn’t that. But you’ve only got so many throws in that arm.”

He may be right: this may be the end for Halladay

Game 2: Dillon Gee (2012: 109.2 IP, 94 ERA+,3.34 K/BB) vs. Cliff Lee (2012: 211 IP, 127 ERA+, 7.39 K/BB)

Lee was horribly unlucky last season. Despite posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.06 xFIP (first in baseball), the Phillies lost most of the games Lee started. His win-loss record from last year is completely misleading. He is still one of the best in the game, walking only 1.219 batters per nine while striking out 8.8. In his last outing, Lee tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out eight.

Game 3: Jeremy Hefner (2012: 93.2 IP, 76 ERA+, 3.44 K/BB) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2012: 159.1 IP, 103 ERA+, 2.37 K/BB)

Kendrick has proven himself to be a solid option at the back of the rotation with an occasional stint as a long man. With a career 4.7 K/9 rate, he doesn’t dominate, but he doesn’t walk too many hitters either, with a 2.61 BB/9 ratio. Kendrick allowed five runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings in his last start against Kansas City.

Series News & Notes

• Carlos Ruiz, who batted .325 with a career-high of 16 home runs is still serving a 25-game suspension for violation of Major League Baseball’s drug policy.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in each of their first six games, the longest such stretch to open a season since New York hit a home run in six straight games to begin the 1987 campaign. That team went on to hit home runs in their first eight games.
• David Wright played his 61st consecutive game without an error yesterday, extending the franchise record for third basemen. Lenny Randle is second on the list with 54 consecutive errorless games.
• In his final start in 2012, Harvey allowed a leadoff home run to Jimmy Rollins on September 19…That was the only hit and run allowed by Harvey over seven innings as he racked up seven strikeouts in a no-decision…the Mets lost, 3-2.

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Travis d’Arnaud, along with Zack Wheeler headline the Las Vegas 51s roster.

The Mets changed Triple-A affiliates this offseason, going from Buffalo to Las Vegas and from the International League to the Pacific Coast League. The biggest storyline for this team will be how the move affects development. The Pacific Coast League, especially Las Vegas, is notorious for inflated power numbers. It may be harder to judge how well a player is developing because hitters will have more home runs and pitchers will see their ERA shoot up as well. It will be interesting to see how the prospects react as well, with the top two prospects in the system set to play at least the first month with Las Vegas.

The Big Names

• Zack Wheeler (RHP)- It’s only a matter of time before the top Mets prospect gets called up to the majors. Wheeler should only be with the 51s for a few months, coming up in July at the latest. 
• Travis d’Arnaud (C)- d’Arnaud was the centerpiece of the R.A. Dickey trade last December, and for good reason. d’Arnaud looks like the complete package, both at the plate and with the glove. His power has developed over the past two years into one of his best tools. Last year, he hit 16 homers in 67 games in Triple-A before a torn PCL ended his season.
• Wilmer Flores (INF)- After struggling in the lower minors for a few years (as a result of being rushed), Flores had a resurgent season last year for Advanced-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton. The long-awaited power numbers finally came, as Flores slugged .479 with 18 home runs in 130 total minor league games. In his third year in St. Lucie, he hit .289/.336/.463 with ten home runs in 64 games, earning himself an FSL All-Star Game selection. He was then promoted to Binghamton, hwere he hit even better, batting .311/.363/.494 with eight home runs in 66 games. He is still young for the league, currently the seventh-youngest player in Triple-A and the fourth youngest in the Pacific Coast League. If Flores can keep it up, all that’s left is finding a position.
• Jeurys Familia (RHP) Note: Familia was sent down on Saturday and will be with the 51s for the foreseeable future- Familia had a down season last year with the Buffalo Bisons, struggling as a starting pitcher. He made 28 starts and had a 4.73 ERA, along with a very concerning 4.8 walks per nine rate. His poor performance finally convinced the Mets that he belongs in the bullpen, which is where he will be this season for Las Vegas.
• Matt den Dekker (CF)- Note: Broken wristThe former fifth-round pick den Dekker tore the cover off the ball in half a season with Binghamton, but struggled to hit .200 in the second half with the Bisons. He batted .340/.397/.563 with eight home runs in 56 Double-A games. After moving to Triple-A, he hit just .220/.256/.373 in 77 games. His stirkeout and walk rates were awful, as he struck out in 28.4% of his Plate appearances, while walking only 4.4%. Those numbers are among the worst in his minor league career. Den Dekker must cut down on the strikeouts if he will ever play regularly in the majors. His incredible defense isn’t going to carry him to success. Den Dekker has shown a trend throughout his short career of needing an adjustment period to each new level, which has some people very hopeful that he will start to hit again once he comes back from a broken wrist later this season.

The Sleepers

• Juan Lagares (OF)- The speedy and versatile Lagares hit .283/.334/.389 between St. Lucie and Binghamton last season. He can play all three outfield positions, making him a possibility for the Mets bench late this season if things go right.
• Andrew Brown (OF)- Brown was a longshot to make the team in spring training, and was cut before the season started. However, Brown still has a chance to make some noise with his power. He has put up consistent power numbers throughout his minor league career and could play a role on the Met bench as a power-hitting pinch hitter if someone gets hurt.

Other Names to Watch

• Reese Havens (2B)- The seemingly always hurt Reese Havens was finally cut from the 40-man roster in the week leading up to Opening Day. Havens, 26, has never played a full season without injury and in his six-year career, has only played in 308 games. If he can stay healthy and the power that scouts have been talking about since he was in college finally shows up, there is still a chance he has a role with the big league club.
• Collin McHugh (RHP)- McHugh profiles as a long man or back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. He had a solid season in the minors last year, posting a 2.91 ERA in 25 starts with Binghamton and Buffalo, walking 2.8 batters per nine and striking out 8.2. He struggled in a short stint with the big league club, allowing 21 runs (18 earned) in 21.1 innings over eight appearances.
• Zach Lutz (3B)- Lutz has put up solid numbers for most of his minor league career, and almost made the team out of spring training. He hit .295/.404/.496 in 78 minor league games last season.

Continue reading »]]> Conor Glassey of Baseball America did a very interesting Q&A session with Mets Scouting Director Tommy Tanous. Tanous had some cool insights into the world of scouting, touching on how technology, statistics, amateur showcases, and more have changed the world of scouting. Here is just a little bit of what he said:

Scouting is based on opinions, and it’s always said that you can’t properly evaluate the success of a draft until about five years down the road. So, how do you go about evaluating yourself as a scout, and evaluating the job that your staff is doing?

Nobody knows who has the best draft, until these players actually start playing and start getting deeper into their career. I judge our draft, and our staff, and my own performance by, did we follow our process? There are a lot of different ways of skinning a cat. There are some teams that are stuff-oriented with a pitcher, they want guys with great stuff. There are others who obviously want great stuff, but they’re more concerned about arm action. They’re both right in a way, but what is your process, what is your philosophy, and did you, as a staff, stick to it? I think that’s how you judge yourself as a staff. Because, if your process is solid, and your philosophy is solid—and there can be many different philosophies—but if you stick to them, I think you have the best chance of having success. I think you can get in trouble if you have one philosophy one year, a totally different philosophy another year, and you’re constantly changing. If you have a philosophy you believe in, certainly you’re going to make some small adjustments as the year goes by, but if you have your beliefs and you stick to them, and your staff believes in them, I think that’s the way you have your best drafts.

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Scouting is obviously a subjective business. But it’s important to remain objective, too. I did a feature a couple years ago called “Scouts On Scouting,” where I interviewed scouts about their jobs, and one thing a guy told me that really stuck out to me, that I really thought was neat, is a thing he does when he does pro coverage. The first day he gets there for BP, he takes all his notes without getting a roster, so that he’s not influenced by the names or the statistics. Are there any tricks like that, that you use yourself, or little things you try to teach new scouts?

Well, they call that scouting with your eyes. It’s nice when you do that, and then at the end of your series, or in the middle of your series, you pick up the stats and the guys you circled, that you feel are prospects, are all having good years. Then it makes you feel better as an evaluator. The main thing I’ll try and stress upon all our scouts—our crosscheckers and our area supervisors—is this: You evaluate with a checklist, whatever that checklist may be. Whatever you feel is important—and obviously I’m not going to go into the New York Mets’ checklist—but we have certain things we like in a pitcher, and certain things we like in a hitter. When you evaluate a player in February, you go down that checklist. He does this, this, this, this, this that we like; he doesn’t do this so well. Well, February turns into April, and we want that same checklist. We want that player being graded on the same criteria he was graded two months earlier on. Otherwise, I’ve seen too many scouts, they’ll go in in February, and they’ll have a certain criteria of what they like. By May, that criteria has changed, and really it’s like having two different scouts at the game. You’re not being consistent, and you’re not being true to the list, or to the player. That’s probably the best advice I can give a young scout. Keep changing, keep getting better—look, my criteria for what I look for now, in 2013, is much different than it was in 1996, because I’ve matured and have more experience, and now I’ve seen certain things that make me feel more comfortable with a hitter. But, I try and have the same process when I go to the game everyday. Therefore, I’m giving it more of a consistent opinion.

I think it will be interesting to see how the scouting world adjusts to advanced technology, which has been taking over the game over the last decade. Pitch f/x and other tools now make every pitch’s release point, movement, location, and velocity are available to the public. Here’s what Tanous had to say about it:

I know some teams are using those, and you see them certainly at the Area Codes and the other events, too. Seeing how hard the ball comes off the bat, velocity, spin rates, I think it’s just starting now with these companies, and I think it’s going to take a few years—like anything new—I think it’ll take a few years before teams have total confidence in it. Just like the video camera took a few years, but I think it’ll eventually get there, and there’ll be a system that’s probably used more than others, and a system that teams probably feel more comfortable with.

Tanous has been with the organization since June 2011 and in his current role since November 2011. He was previously the Director of International Scouting for the Diamondbacks in 2009 and 2010. Before that, he worked in the Rangers, Angels, and Brewers organizations as a scout.

Read the rest of the interview here.