USGS Newsroom

New Tools to Help Manage Saltwater Intrusion

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Wed, 3 Apr 2013 15:21:18 EDT

Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise to Impact When Water is Available

COLUMBIA, S.C. – South Carolina and Georgia water resource managers have powerful new tools at their fingertips to help make critical decisions on the timing and quantity of freshwater availability in coastal rivers.

Developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and Advanced Data Mining International, the two new decision support systems will help decision makers determine how much drinking water they will be able to pull from rivers in the face of climate change, sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion.

The user-friendly products were developed as part a new report titled Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate change scenarios.

Research shows that the availability of freshwater in coastal streams will likely be affected in the future due to the combination of climate change and sea-level rise. The balance between freshwater and saltwater in coastal streams is primarily governed by the interaction between streamflow and sea level, and coastal rivers are constantly responding to changing streamflow and tidal conditions.

The decision support systems -- which include salinity simulation models, model controls, historical databases, and model output in a spreadsheet application – were created for the cities and towns on the Georgia and South Carolina coast that withdraw drinking water from the Atlantic Intracoastal Water and the Waccamaw River in South Carolina, and the Savannah River in Georgia, to predict saltwater intrusion near municipal intakes.

"Predicting the changes in the frequency of salinity intrusion event is critical for water-resource planning in the coastal region of the Southeastern United States due to the large number of municipal water-supply intakes in coastal rivers," said Paul Conrads, a USGS hydrologist and lead author of the study.

At a location just downstream from an intake that provides drinking water for Myrtle Beach area, the decision support system estimated that a 1-foot rise in sea level would increase the frequency of salinity at the intake and double the amount of time that freshwater would not be available at the intake.

"The decision support systems for the two rivers are essentially easy-to-use spreadsheets that integrate all the science, data, and models needed to perform high quality risk assessments," said Edwin Roehl, lead software developer for the project.

The study also evaluated the effect of climate-change projections from a global circulation model on change in salinity intrusion. The global circulation models predict changes in precipitation and temperature. These changes can affect streamflows to the coasts and change salinity intrusion. The results from the global circulation model projections indicates that, for one intake, the annual number of salinity intrusion events will increase and there would be a seasonal shift, with most salinity intrusion events occurring in the fall rather than the summer.

Although increases in sea-level and reductions in streamflow show substantial effects that would have operational consequence for municipal water-treatment plants, the climate change scenarios shown in the report would allow water-resource managers to plan adaptation efforts to minimize the effect of increased salinity of source water. Adaptation efforts may include timing of withdrawals during outgoing tides, increased storage of raw water, timing larger releases of regulated flows appropriately to move the saltwater-freshwater interface downstream, and the blending of higher conductance surface water with lower conductance water from an alternative source such as groundwater.

Crowd-Sourcing the Nation: Using Volunteers for Enhanced Data Collection

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Mon, 1 Apr 2013 18:41:01 EDT

The USGS is expanding the involvement of volunteers to enhance data collection about structures for The National Map.

This program, known as The National Map Corps, focuses on encouraging citizens to collect data relating to structures by both adding new features and/or correcting existing data within The National Map database. These structures can include schools, hospitals, post offices, police stations and other important public places.

Collaborative pilot projects in Colorado were recently used to test the concept of crowd-sourcing. While the project is on-going, early indications point to positive results and show the success of using TNMC volunteers to enhance data sets.

Over a trial period of ten months, 143 volunteers collected, improved, or deleted data on more than 6,400 structures in Colorado. The volunteers’ actions were accurate and exceeded USGS quality standards. In the Colorado pilot project the volunteer-collected data showed an improvement of approximately 25 percent in both location and attribute accuracy for existing data points. Completeness, or the extent to which all appropriate features were identified and recorded, was nearly perfect.

The significant results of the Colorado pilot have led to a phased, nation-wide expansion of the crowd-sourcing /volunteer project. The states in the first expansion of TNMC are: Arkansas, Alaska, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Washington, West Virginia

After an evaluation of the quality and procedures of the first group of states, the second set will be made available. Ultimately, by the end of 2013, the third batch of states will complete the expansion of the program.

"The response by volunteers in Colorado exceeded our expectations both in terms of the number of volunteers and the quality of the data they collected”, said Kari Craun, the Director of the USGS National Geospatial Technical Operations Center. “The Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) community represents a fantastic, untapped resource to assist USGS in maintaining data that are part of The National Map.”

While some familiarity with the area that a volunteer chooses is helpful, one doesn’t have to live near a particular place to contribute. The tools on TNMC website, along with ancillary information available on the Internet, are generally sufficient to edit a distant area.

There have been several instances of crowd-sourced geographic information making significant contributions to research and databases in government, private sector, and non-profit organizations. The goal of the TNMC is to provide data for the nation’s primary federal mapping agency in its effort to provide accurate and authoritative spatial data via the web-based National Map.

The citizen geographers/cartographers who participate in this program will make a significant addition to the USGS’s ability to provide accurate information to the public. Data collected by volunteers become part of TNM Structures dataset which is available to users free of charge.

Without a network of volunteers, the desired information would not be collected this year and the existing data would not be updated. TNMC volunteers perform important work that otherwise will not be accomplished in the foreseeable future.

Becoming a volunteer for TNMC is easy; go to the National Map Corps website to learn more and to sign up as a volunteer. If you have access to the Internet and are willing to dedicate some time to editing map data, we hope you will consider participating!

Photos Reveal Severity of Hurricane Sandy's Coastal Impacts

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Fri, 9 Nov 2012 15:20:00 EDT

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – The USGS has released a series of aerial photographs showing before-and-after images of Hurricane Sandy’s impacts on the Atlantic Coast.

The photos, part of a USGS assessment of coastal change from as far south as the Outer Banks of North Carolina to as far north as Massachusetts, show that the storm caused dramatic changes to portions of shoreline extending hundreds of miles. Pre- and post-storm images of the New Jersey and New York shoreline in particular tell a story of a coastal landscape that was considerably altered by the historic storm.

"Sandy taught us yet again that not all Cat-1 hurricanes are created equal: the superstorm's enormous fetch over the Atlantic produced storm surge and wave erosion of historic proportions," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "We have seized this opportunity to gather unique data on a major coastline-altering event."

As major storms approach, the USGS conducts pre-storm and post-storm flights to gather aerial images along the length of the coastline expected to experience impacts from the storm’s landfall. Identifying sites of such impacts helps scientists understand which areas are likely to undergo the most severe impacts from future storms, and improves future coastal impact forecasting.

Photo pairs from North Carolina to Massachusetts will be made available online as the coastal change assessment continues.

"This storm's impact on sandy beaches included significant beach and dune erosion and minor disruption of infrastructure in the south," said USGS oceanographer Nathaniel Plant, "to extreme and often catastrophic erosion, overwash and sediment deposition, and inundation on northern beaches like Mantoloking, New Jersey."

Overwash occurs when storm surge and waves exceed the elevation of protective sand dunes, thereby transporting sand inland. In addition to threatening infrastructure like roadways, it can bury portions of buildings and cause extensive property damage. Since beaches and dunes serve as a first line of defense against extreme storms, this could further compromise the safety of coastal populations.

Data collected from these surveys are also used to improve predictive models of potential impacts from future severe storms. Before a storm makes landfall, USGS makes these predictions to help coastal communities identify areas particularly vulnerable to severe coastal change, such as beach and dune erosion, overwash, and inundation.

For instance, in the days before Sandy approached the eastern seaboard, the USGS ran models forecasting that 91 percent of the Delmarva coastline would experience beach and dune erosion, while 98 percent and 93 percent of beaches and dunes in New Jersey and New York, respectively, were likely to erode. Preliminary analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy rapidly displaced massive quantities of sand in a capacity that visibly changed the landscape.

The USGS worked closely with the National Park Service to gather field data on pre- and post- storm conditions at Fire Island National Seashore on Long Island. The field team went to Fire Island in advance of the storm to capture the morphology of the beach and dunes. The team re-surveyed the beach to capture its state immediately after the storm, and they found drastic changes.

"We found that there was widespread dune erosion and overwash," said St. Petersburg-based USGS coastal geologist Cheryl Hapke. "On average the dunes eroded back 70 feet - the equivalent of 30-years of change, which had previously been measured. Our data also showed that dunes lost as much as 10 feet of elevation."

This rapid response data was used to help the National Park Service assess the areas of the coast that were most vulnerable to a nor'easter that impacted the coast a week after Sandy.

The USGS is also processing pre- and post-landfall airborne lidar data to gather information on the extent of coastal change caused by Sandy. Lidar, or light detection and ranging, is an aircraft-based remote sensing method that uses laser pulses to collect highly detailed ground elevation data.

New Map Helps Prepare Atlanta for Future Floods

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Thu, 25 Oct 2012 9:17:13 EDT

Area Near Peachtree Creek Focus of New Online Tool

ATLANTA – A powerful new online flood preparedness tool that will help emergency managers improve flood warnings and response has been developed for Peachtree Creek, Ga.

Runoff from the Peachtree Creek watershed, a major tributary to the Chattahoochee River in Atlanta, contributed to the area’s flooding in 2009, which took 10 lives and caused damages estimated to have reached more than $193 million in a 7-day period. Peachtree Creek is one of the most flood-prone waterways in the Atlanta region due to its highly urbanized watershed.

The interactive web-based tool, called a "flood inundation map," was created by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey. The interactive map will help identify where the potential threat of floodwaters is greatest, enabling emergency personnel from Federal Emergency Management Agency and state and local agencies to make quick decisions about when and how to evacuate residents threatened by rising floodwaters and focus flood response and recovery efforts.

"Floods are the most expensive natural disaster that we face in the U.S., affecting all 50 states and costing more than $2.7 billion dollars annually averaged over the past 10 years according to government estimates," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "Investing in science-based preparedness tools like the online flood inundation maps is a smart way to help everyone know the quick decisions to make to spare lives and property."

The USGS is partnering with the National Weather Service, United States Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA to develop comparable flood inundation maps in locations across the country identified to be at the highest risk for flooding.

"Atlanta is proud to be the first major city in the southeast to actively participate in flood inundation mapping. In 2009, Peachtree Creek area residents experienced devastating flooding events; it is the City’s goal to prevent residents from encountering this again ," said Mayor Kasim Reed. "The safety of our residents is a priority and by utilizing this on-line tool, Peachtree Creek area residents will be able to access real-time data on rising flood waters, allowing them to make the necessary safety plans for their families during torrential rains."

The new tool set another milestone as being the first in the Southeast to push flood science further by using a second USGS streamgage to measure water backing up from one river into another, a situation that can increase the extent of flooding.

"We looked at a streamgage on the Chattahoochee River at Georgia-280 to determine the impact of water backing up into Peachtree Creek, and took that into consideration as we developed this flood inundation map. This is a first in the Southeast, and is a significant step forward in flood science that will ultimately give residents even more insight into what to expect during future floods," said Brian McCallum, assistant director at the USGS Georgia Water Science Center.

"The interactive map is available online to residents, who will be able to see how flooding would affect their property at different water levels" McCallum said. "It's like having a streamgage in your front yard." Residents can also access live streaming video of Peachtree Creek via a USGS webcam located at the USGS streamgage.

To access the Peachtreek Creek Flood Inundation Maps, visit the website.

The national flood inundation mapping program identified North Georgia as a high priority due to the continuing danger from the perennial risk of rising floodwaters in the area.

Flood inundations maps are developed based on data from the USGS’s nationwide streamgage network that monitors the water level and flow of the nation's rivers and streams. Remote sensing lidar data and GIS technology are used to extend streamgage readings onto an online interactive map.

The Flood Inundation Map is one of a series of flood preparedness tools the USGS developed to help prepare for potential flooding and track water levels as they rise. WaterAlert and StreaMail are two other online resources available to residents to verify streamgage readings. Subscribers may choose to get automated warnings either through email or text. With these tools, emergency managers, resource managers and the public may stay informed and keep themselves or others out of harm’s way by keeping up to date of local conditions.

Florida Beaches and Dunes Face Erosion Risk During TS Isaac

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Sat, 25 Aug 2012 14:30:00 EDT

USGS Calculates Likelihood of Coastal Changes

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – Seventy-eight percent of Florida's west central coast and 23 percent of the Panhandle are very likely to face beach and dune erosion as Tropical Storm Isaac moves into the area early next week, according to an assessment released by the U.S. Geological Survey on Friday. These numbers are likely to increase if the storm reaches hurricane strength as predicted.

For many Florida beaches that had significant erosion during Tropical Storm Debby in June, the impact of additional erosion may be even more significant.

"With Isaac bearing down on Florida beaches so soon on the heels of Debby, this is like a 'one-two punch' for the dunes that provide coastal protection," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "As these sand dunes dynamically morph to new configurations, our science-based models can help in forecasting where communities are at most risk from storm damage in this ever-changing spatial and temporal pattern of storm intensity and coastal morphology."

During tropical storms and hurricanes, elevated water levels and waves can lead to dramatic coastal change through erosion of beaches and dunes. These beaches and dunes can serve as a first line of defense for residents for many coasts exposed to these types of storms.

Using a USGS-developed model scientists incorporated measurements of beach elevation and wave and surge forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to determine the probabilities of collision, overwash and inundation during the coming storm.

Collision is when waves attack the base of dunes and cause dune-front erosion. Overwash occurs when waves and storm surge overtop dunes and transport sand landward. Inundation, the most extreme of the three, occurs when increased water levels completely submerge beaches and dunes.

"Tropical Storm Debby eroded many beaches along Florida's west central coast, impacting the property of many gulf-side residents and hotels," said Hilary Stockdon, a USGS oceanographer and lead of the assessment team. "Beaches typically take years to recover from severe storm impact, so having what is likely to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane move up the coast just two months later could take a heavy toll on some already heavily eroded areas."

In addition to the likelihood of erosion, the team found that 15 percent of the west central coast was very likely to face overwash should the storm make direct landfall there, while that likelihood was only 5 percent for the Panhandle where dune elevations are higher. Unless forecasts change significantly, inundation is not expected in either area.

The team will revise its calculations as storm track and intensity forecasts are updated, and will update their projections and website accordingly. They plan to include the Alabama and Mississippi coasts in their assessments this weekend. Additional information on coastal change and extreme storms can be found on the USGS Coastal Change Hazards website.

In May, the USGS released a report assessing probability of coastal change for the Gulf Coast when facing hurricanes of different strengths. The report included an interactive map that allows users to focus on different parts of the Gulf Coast shoreline to view how the probability of erosion, caused by waves and storm surge, will vary depending on hurricane intensity.

The research is expected to help emergency managers at local, state and federal levels as they prepare for hurricane events such as this one in this and future seasons. Planners will be able to determine how different categories of hurricanes would impact their beaches and surrounding communities, helping them better protect lives and property.

For the latest forecasts on the storm, listen to NOAA radio. For information on preparing for the storm, visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov.

USGS Unveils Flood Mapping Tool for Atlanta Suburb

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 10:00:00 EDT

Maps Will Help NWS Forecast Local Floods

ATLANTA – A powerful new flood preparedness tool that will help emergency managers protect lives and property in the flood-prone Sweetwater Creek area was unveiled in a ceremony today on the banks of the creek at Austell's Legion Regional Park.

Developed by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey's Georgia Water Science Center, the interactive web-based tool, called a "flood inundation map," is the first of its kind to be created for a major urban area in the southeastern United States.

"I am pleased the USGS has made this informative and interactive tool available to the public," said Congressman David Scott, who spoke at the event. "It will be especially useful to my constituents, many of whom know all too well the devastating effects floodwaters can have on personal safety and property. I encourage all Georgians to utilize this valuable tool in order to predict the effects flooding may have on our areas so that citizens will no longer be taken by surprise by rising water levels."

The epic Atlanta floods of 2009 resulted in 10 deaths and more than $250,000,000 total estimated damages in a 7-day period. Floods impacted more than 20,000 homes and businesses and damaged hundreds of roads and bridges, according to Federal Emergency Management Agency. At this time, Sweetwater Creek experienced the highest flows recorded in more than 108 years of measurement with a recorded 31,500 cubic feet per second -- 300 times higher than the Creek’s normal flow.

"Floods are the most expensive natural disaster that we face in the U.S., affecting all 50 states and costing more than $2.7 billion dollars annually averaged over the past 10 years according to government estimates," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt, from her office in Reston, Va. "Investing in science-based preparedness tools like the online flood inundation maps is a smart way to help everyone know the quick decisions to make to spare lives and property."

This new online tool will help identify where the potential threat of floodwaters is greatest, enabling emergency personnel from FEMA and state and local agencies to make quick decisions about when and how to evacuate residents. State and local officials will be able to use the interactive tool before the rain falls to better plan flood response and resource recovery and to assess evacuation routes at various flood levels.

Nationwide, the USGS is partnering with the National Weather Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA to develop comparable flood inundation maps in locations identified to be at the highest risk for flooding. Georgia has one flood inundation map for the Flint River at Albany, with two more underway for Peachtree Creek in Atlanta and Suwanee Creek in Gwinnett County.

Today's event was held on the banks of the creek with a high-water mark from the 2009 flood some 15-20 feet above the ball fields in the park. In addition to Congressman Scott, officials from Cobb County, the City of Austell, USGS and NWS spoke at the ceremony.

Flood inundation maps are based on real-time river gauge readings from the USGS’s nationwide streamgage network, which monitors water level and flow of the nation's rivers and streams. Remote sensing lidar data and geographic information system technology are used to portray streamgage readings from the Sweetwater Creek gauge onto an online interactive map. The result is a dynamic webpage where users can zoom in and out on different parts of the community to identify locations that would be affected by flooding at different water levels from I-20 north through Austell.

The flood inundation map for Sweetwater Creek is coupled with HAZUS loss-estimation software developed by FEMA and adapted for online display by USGS. Using the projected depth and extent of floodwaters from the USGS flood inundation maps, this technology enables estimates to be calculated for the potential physical, economic, and social impacts of flooding in a specific area. Flood loss calculations are available through the USGS FIM Program Mapper.

People wishing to access the Sweetwater Creek flood inundation map can find it online. In addition to the map, scientists are also installing a webcam along the creek near Legion Park to capture live streaming video, enabling people to monitor the creek’s water levels in real time.

WaterAlert and StreaMail are two other online resources that provide residents with timely information about river conditions at important locations. Subscribers have a number of options to choose from on how to get the information. With these tools, emergency managers, resource managers and the public can stay informed and help save lives and reduce property damages by keeping up to date of local river conditions.

Media Advisory: USGS to Unveil Flood Preparedness Tool For Atlanta Suburb

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 9:00:00 EDT

Congressman Scott to Address Continuing Dangers of Flooding in Northern Georgia

A powerful new online flood mapping tool that will help emergency managers protect lives and property in the flood-prone Sweetwater Creek area will be unveiled Wednesday at Austell's Legion Regional Park. The interactive web-based tool, called a "flood inundation map," is the first of its kind to be created for a major urban area in the southeastern United States. Cobb County was ground zero for high water and flood damages from the epic 2009 flood events; this map will help identify where the potential threat of floodwaters is greatest, enabling quick decisions to be made about when and how to evacuate area residents threatened by rising floodwaters. This mapping product, along with other USGS and National Weather Service tools, create a comprehensive flood preparedness "toolbox" for the Sweetwater Creek and surrounding communities. Follow this event live on Twitter @USGSLive.

When:	Wednesday, August 22, 2012 10:00-11:00 A.M. Eastern
Where:	Legion Park 5514 Austell Powder Springs Rd Austell, GA 30106
Who:	U.S. Congressman David Scott Honorable Joe Jerkins, Mayor of Austell, Georgia Tim Lee, Chairman, Cobb County Board of Commissioners, Georgia Keith Stellman, Meteorologist-in-Charge, NWS-Peachtree City, Georgia Robert Mason, Assistant Chief, USGS Office of Surface Water, Reston, Virginia

USGS Releases Unconventional Gas Estimates for Five East Coast Basins

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 11:04:29 EDT

Using a geology-based assessment method, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated a mean undiscovered natural gas resource of 3.9 trillion cubic feet and a mean undiscovered natural gas liquids resource of 135 million barrels in continuous accumulations within five East Coast Mesozoic basins, according to a new USGS report.

The area assessed extends across parts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. The five basins assessed are the Deep River, Taylorsville, South Newark, Dan River-Danville, and Richmond basins. Of those five, the Deep River, in North Carolina; the Taylorsville, primarily in Virginia and southern Maryland; and the South Newark, in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, are estimated to possess the most resource potential.

"Americans are currently benefitting from a plentiful supply of natural gas from continuous resource accumulations similar to the ones considered in this assessment," explained USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "By providing estimates of undiscovered resources, the USGS helps both producers and consumers understand the future for our domestic supply and the geographic locations for impacts from energy development."

The five basins formed 227 million years ago during the Mesozoic era along the continental margin in response to the regional uplift, extension (rifting), and crustal thinning that occurred during the early opening of the Atlantic Ocean. As the basins formed, they were filled with a variety of sediments, including boulder beds, coarse-grained fluvial to deltaic sandstones, red siltstones, mudstones, gray and black shales, and coal.

The USGS assessment of undiscovered gas resources ranges from 1.8 to 7.1 trillion cubic feet (95 percent and 5 percent probability, respectively). The assessment of undiscovered natural gas liquids ranges from 56 to 260 million barrels (95 percent and 5 percent probability, respectively).

Natural gas resources like those found in the East Coast Mesozoic Basins are known as continuous resources. Continuous resources have a close association with one or more petroleum source rocks and typically extend across a large area of accumulation. Continuous petroleum accumulations may be found in shale, coal, and sandstone. All of the accumulations assessed in this study are "tight gas sandstone" continuous reservoirs.

This assessment of the East Coast Mesozoic basins is based on the geologic and geochemical characteristics of the individual total petroleum systems, or TPS. For the petroleum source rock, the characteristics include the source rock richness, thermal maturation, timing of petroleum generation, and migration; for the reservoir rocks and seals, they include their stratigraphic position and content and petrophysical properties. Using this geologic framework, the USGS defined a composite TPS and an assessment unit for continuous accumulations in each of the 14 major East Coast Mesozoic rift basins. The basins are present both onshore and offshore, in State-administered waters, of the eastern United States. Of those 14 basins, only five had enough data to be quantitatively assessed.

The USGS acknowledges the directors and staff of the state geological surveys of North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey for providing geological information and assisting with the basin-analysis workshops, which were held in preparation for the USGS assessment.

USGS is the only provider of publicly available estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources of onshore lands and offshore state waters. The USGS estimates of continuous accumulations within the East Coast Mesozoic basins are part of a nationwide project to assess domestic petroleum basins using standardized methodology and protocol.

To access this assessment, as well as learn more about USGS energy research, please visit the USGS Energy Resources Program, and stay up to date with USGS energy science by subscribing to the USGS Energy Newsletter or following us on Twitter.

USGS Details Effects of Climate Change on Water Availability in 14 Local Basins Nationwide

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Wed, 16 May 2012 6:00:00 EDT

Climate change projections indicate a steady increase in temperature progressing through the 21^st century, generally resulting in snowpack reductions, changes to the timing of snowmelt, altered streamflows, and reductions in soil moisture, all of which could affect water management, agriculture, recreation, hazard mitigation, and ecosystems across the nation. Despite some widespread similarities in climate change trends, climate change will affect specific water basins in the U.S. differently, based on the particular hydrologic and geologic conditions in that area.

New USGS modeling studies project changes in water availability due to climate change at the local level. So far, the USGS has applied these models to fourteen basins, including:

"The advantage of these studies is that they demonstrate that there is not just one hydrological response to climate change: the predictions account for essential local factors that will govern the timing, severity, and type of impact, whether it be water shortage, drought, or flood," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "This is exactly the sort of information communities need to know now, because we are unlikely to see a 'water-as-usual' future."

These local projections are based on General Circulation Models (GCM) that predict how climate change will affect temperature, precipitation, and emissions for large regional areas. The USGS’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) applies information from the downscaled GCM projections to local watersheds, where impacts of climate change on water availability will depend on local conditions. These local-scale hydrologic projections will allow managers to plan for changes in water resources that are specific to their area.

For example, the USGS models project that changes to snow pack in the Sprague River Basin in Oregon could cause annual peak streamflows to occur earlier in the spring as overall basin storage decreases, which may force managers to modify storage operation and reprioritize water deliveries for environmental and human needs. Reduced snowpack in headwaters of the Colorado River could affect the amount and timing of streamflow to the Colorado River and also impact important recreation areas. Portions of Maine may see higher streamflows which could affect populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. Areas of the already drought-stressed Flint River Basin, one of Atlanta’s primary drinking water supplies, are projected to become even drier.

The results for each basin present a complex story due to uncertainty associated with the future climate projections and their effect on the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the nation.

Detailed information about watershed responses to climate change can be found online. Additionally, a collection of USGS studies that contributed to these basin-wide analyses was published in the journal Earth Interactions.

The downscaled GCM models are obtained from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset archive. The USGS PRMS models were developed as part of the USGS National Research Program (NRP) in cooperation with USGS Water Science Centers. The NRP develops new information, theories, and techniques to anticipate, understand, and solve problems facing resources managers and is a national leader in understanding the effects of climate change on water resources.

These USGS models are just one of several tools developed and used by agencies within the Department of the Interior to study potential impacts from climate change and to provide tools to resource managers to adapt to those changes. For example, the Bureau of Reclamation recently unveiled a user-friendly tool for calculating future streamflow and water supplies at 195 sites in the western United States to help increase accessibility of science-based information and ease understanding of how climate variations will impact water availability for local communities.

A Big Day for Science: Citizens Have Contributed One Million Observations to Top Nature Database

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Thu, 3 May 2012 9:00:00 EDT

RESTON, Va. — Thanks to citizen-scientists around the country, the USA National Phenology Network hit a major milestone this week by reaching its one millionth nature observation.

The millionth observation was done by Lucille Tower, a citizen-scientist in Portland, Ore., who entered a record about seeing maple vines flowering. Her data, like all of the entries, came in through USA-NPN’s online observation program, Nature's Notebook, which engages more than 4,000 volunteers across the country to observe and record phenology – the timing of the recurring life events of plants and animals such as when cherry trees or lilacs blossom, when robins build their nests, when salmon swim upstream to spawn or when leaves turn colors in the fall.

Each record not only represents a single data point — the status of a specific life stage of an individual plant or animal on one day – but also benefits both science and society by helping researchers understand how plants and animals are responding to climate change and, in turn, how those responses are affecting people and ecological systems.

"My dream is that through the wonders of modern technology and the National Phenology Network we could turn the more than six billion people on the planet into components of our scientific observing system," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "We could make giant leaps in science education, improve the spatial and temporal coverage of the planet, lower the cost of scientific data collection, and all while making ordinary citizens feel a part of the scientific process."

Jake Weltzin, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist and the executive director of USA-NPN, concurs. "Hitting the one millionth observation is exciting because researchers and decision-makers need more information to understand and respond to our rapidly changing planet. More information means better-informed decisions that ensure the continued vitality of our natural areas that we all depend on and enjoy."

For example, said Weltzin, the data in Nature's Notebook are already being used to benefit society, including the development of more accurate indicators of spring, forecasting the onset of allergy seasons or the chances of western wildfires, managing wildlife and invasive plants, and setting goals for habitat restoration. Ultimately, such information can be used for better managing water resources, wildlife and ecosystem management, and even help farmers and ranchers across the nation.

Changes in phenology are among the most sensitive biological indicators of global change. Across the world, many springtime events are occurring earlier — and fall events happening later — than in the past. These changes are happening quickly for some species and more slowly, or not at all, for others, altering relationships and processes that have been dynamically stable for thousands of years. Some wildlife —like caribou and butterflies — are becoming mismatched from their plant food resources, which are responding differently. Migrations for some birds are changing too, as they can now overwinter instead of moving south for the winter, or as they fly north more quickly to keep pace with an advancing front of spring flowering.

Because of this, said Weltzin, scientists need more and better information about the pace and pattern of nature — locally to nationally — to answer important scientific and societal questions, and to build the tools and models needed to help people understand and adapt to the changes.

"So much of our improved understanding about global environmental changes is driven by varied and valuable sources of information that include networks of citizen-scientists," said John Wingfield, National Science Foundation’s assistant director for biological sciences. "The public at large has played an important role collecting observations and data for a hundred years and more. Knowledge and data gained from their work will continue to have a lasting effect on how we understand regularly recurring biological phenomena for hundreds of plant and animal species and contribute to the policy arena."

Gwen Lundburg in Seattle is one citizen-scientist who has contributed hundreds of entries into Nature’s Notebook. "Just noticing small changes like tiny purple lilac buds suddenly turning green has taught me to look more closely at my plants," Lundburg said. "I see things in my garden I never saw before."

With the help of citizen-scientist volunteers, working in concert with professionals, the USA-NPN, which was established in 2007, collects, stores and freely shares phenological data on more than 800 species of plants and animals. The Nature’s Notebook observing program has been in operation since 2009. The coordinating office of the organization is located at 1955 E. 6^th St., Tucson, Ariz., 85721. For more information, visit the USA National Phenology Network, or contact Jake Weltzin at 520-626-3821 or jweltzin@usgs.gov.

Rise in Asian Tiger Shrimp Sightings Prompts Scientific Look at Invasion Concerns

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:00:00 EDT

Additional Contact: Keeley Belva, NOAA 301-713-3066 Keeley.Belva@noaa.gov

Content updated - 4/26/2012 6:48 pm

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – The recent rise in sightings of non-native Asian tiger shrimp off the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts has government scientists working to determine the cause of the increase and the possible consequences for native fish and seafood in those waters.

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are working with state agencies from North Carolina to Texas to look into how this transplanted species from Indo-Pacific, Asian and Australian waters reached U.S. waters, and what the increase in sightings means for native species.

"We can confirm there was nearly a tenfold jump in reports of Asian tiger shrimp in 2011," explained Pam Fuller, the USGS biologist who runs the agency's Nonindigenous Aquatic Species database. "And they are probably even more prevalent than reports suggest, because the more fisherman and other locals become accustomed to seeing them, the less likely they are to report them."

NOAA scientists are launching a research effort to understand more about the biology of these shrimp and how they may affect the ecology of native fisheries and coastal ecosystems. As with all non-native species, there are concerns over the potential for novel avenues of disease transmission and competition with native shrimp stocks, especially given the high growth rates and spawning rates compared with other species.

"The Asian tiger shrimp represents yet another potential marine invader capable of altering fragile marine ecosystems," said NOAA marine ecologist James Morris. "Our efforts will include assessments of the biology and ecology of this non-native species and attempts to predict impacts to economically and ecologically important species of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico."

The cause of the rapid increase in sightings remains uncertain, Fuller added. The non-native shrimp species may have escaped from aquaculture facilities, although there are no longer any known Asian tiger shrimp farms presently in operation in the United States. It may have been transported in ballast water from ships or possibly arrived on ocean currents from wild populations in the Caribbean or other locations.

Fuller's team at USGS has been tracking reports of Asian tiger shrimp since they first came to the attention of marine scientists and resource managers in 1988, when nearly 300 of them were collected off the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia and Florida within three months. Scientists tracked the cause back to an isolated incident that accidentally caused an estimated 2,000 animals to be released from an aquaculture facility operating at that time in South Carolina.

It was not until 18 years later that reports of the non-native shrimp resurfaced. In 2006, a commercial shrimp fisherman caught a single adult male in Mississippi Sound near Dauphin Island, Ala. Within months, additional specimens were noted in North Carolina’s Pamlico Sound, Louisiana’s Vermilion Bay and other parts of Florida and the Carolinas. The species was later reported off the coasts of Georgia, Mississippi and Texas in 2008, 2009 and 2011, respectively.

Scientists have not yet officially deemed the Asian tiger shrimp "established" in U.S. waters, and no one is certain what triggered the recent round of sightings. With so many alternative theories about where these shrimp are coming from and only a handful of juveniles reported, it is hard for scientists to conclude whether they are breeding or simply being carried in by currents.

To look for answers, USGS and NOAA scientists are examining shrimp collected from the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to look for subtle differences in their DNA, information that could offer valuable clues to their origins. This is the first look at the genetics of wild caught Asian tiger shrimp populations found in this part of the U.S., and may shed light on whether there are multiple sources.

"We're going to start by searching for subtle differences in the DNA of Asian tiger shrimp found here – outside their native range –to see if we can learn more about how they got here," said USGS geneticist Margaret Hunter, "If we find differences, the next step will be to fine-tune the analysis to determine whether they are breeding here, have multiple populations, or are carried in from outside areas."

Anyone who sees one or more shrimp suspected to be an Asian tiger shrimp is asked to note the location and report the sighting to the USGS NAS database. If possible, freeze a specimen to help confirm the identity and contribute to a tissue repository maintained by NOAA.

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New System Helps Protect Tybee Island, Savannah Water

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 9:00:00 EDT

SAVANNAH, Ga. -- State of the art water-quality monitoring equipment recently installed on wells in Tybee Island, Ga., is helping protect the area’s principal water supply from saltwater contamination.

The U.S. Geological Survey designed and installed the innovative system that uses satellite telemetry to monitor groundwater levels and salinity daily. Tybee Island is the most seaward municipality in the Savannah area and is vulnerable to groundwater contamination from seawater. This new system will serve as an early warning indicator of saltwater encroachment toward public supply wells.

"No community wants to worry about the quality of the water from its municipal system, and the cost of frequent sampling can become prohibitive," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "We are pleased to be able to provide cutting-edge technology to provide affordable peace of mind for the citizens of Tybee Island."

“Although Tybee Island currently has a good supply of fresh groundwater, there is a potential for saltwater to enter the Upper Floridan aquifer, which is the principal source of fresh water in coastal Georgia and South Carolina,” explained John Clarke, a USGS hydrologist. “The early warning system will monitor in real time the salinity of the Upper Floridan aquifer in an area between the shoreline and existing supply wells. This real-time capability is a critical tool for state and local authorities to manage water resources effectively.”

Saltwater contamination of groundwater aquifers is a serious issue for many coastal communities throughout the U.S. that depend on aquifers for their water supply. When groundwater is removed at a rate faster than it recharges the aquifer, saltwater can migrate into freshwater zones. The Upper Floridan aquifer at Tybee Island is vulnerable to saltwater contamination from the Atlantic Ocean because of its shallow depth.

“This state-of-the-art monitoring system is extremely important because it provides an early warning to protect our supply wells," said Tybee Island Mayor Jason Buelterman. "With this information, we can effectively plan a response to possible contamination problems,” he added.

These real-time-monitoring wells are part of a larger network of wells that the USGS annually samples for chloride concentration to determine relative movement of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Savannah, Georgia area. The wells are part of a statewide groundwater level monitoring network funded by the USGS and the Georgia Environmental Protection Division. The City of Tybee Island provided funding to upgrade the wells to enable real time monitoring of groundwater levels and salinity.

Real time data for these and other well sites is available online.

Information on groundwater conditions and studies in Georgia is available online.

Severe Declines in Everglades Mammals Linked to Pythons

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 14:52:18 EDT

Additional Partnerships:


State Museum of Pennsylvania	Denison University

Constrictor Snakes (B-roll): Video footage (B-roll) of Everglades National Park biologists hunting and capturing a Burmese Python in Florida.

Editors: For frequently asked questions about this study and Burmese pythons, please visit the Fort Collins Science Center, Giant Constrictor Snakes in Florida website.

HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- Precipitous declines in formerly common mammals in Everglades National Park have been linked to the presence of invasive Burmese pythons, according to a study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study, the first to document the ecological impacts of this invasive species, strongly supports that animal communities in this 1.5-million-acre park have been markedly altered by the introduction of pythons within 11 years of their establishment as an invasive species. Mid-sized mammals are the most dramatically affected.

Bobcats are one of the predators that may be negatively affected by pythons, which both compete with them for prey and prey on them. Photo copyrighted by Christopher Gillette, Florida International University. This photo may be used by media and others in association with the Burmese pythons and Everglades press release. (High resolution image)

Once-common opossums are now rarely seen in Everglades National Park, likely because of being preyed upon by Burmese pythons. Photo copyrighted by Christopher Gillette, Florida International University. This photo may be used by media and others in association with the Burmese pythons and Everglades press release. (High resolution image)

The most severe declines, including a nearly complete disappearance of raccoons, rabbits and opossums, have occurred in the remote southernmost regions of the park, where pythons have been established the longest. In this area, populations of raccoons dropped 99.3 percent, opossums 98.9 percent and bobcats 87.5 percent. Marsh and cottontail rabbits, as well as foxes, were not seen at all.

"Pythons are wreaking havoc on one of America's most beautiful, treasured and naturally bountiful ecosystems," said U.S. Geological Survey Director Marcia McNutt. "Right now, the only hope to halt further python invasion into new areas is swift, decisive and deliberate human action."

The researchers collected their information via repeated systematic night-time road surveys within the park, counting both live and road-killed animals. Over the period of the study, researchers traveled a total of nearly 39,000 miles from 2003 to 2011 and compared their findings with similar surveys conducted in 1996 and 1997 along the same roadways before pythons were recognized as established in Everglades National Park.

The scientists who authored the paper noted that the timing and geographic patterns of the documented mammal declines are consistent with the timing and geographic spread of pythons.

The authors also conducted surveys in ecologically similar areas north of the park where pythons have not yet been discovered. In those areas, mammal abundances were similar to those in the park before pythons proliferated. At sites where pythons have only recently been documented, however, mammal populations were reduced, though not to the dramatic extent observed within the park where pythons are well established.

"The magnitude of these declines underscores the apparent incredible density of pythons in Everglades National Park and justifies the argument for more intensive investigation into their ecological effects, as well as the development of effective control methods," said Michael Dorcas, lead author of the study, a professor at Davidson College in North Carolina, and author of the book Invasive Pythons in the United States. "Such severe declines in easily seen mammals bode poorly for the many species of conservation concern that are more difficult to sample but that may also be vulnerable to python predation."

The mammals that have declined most significantly have been regularly found in the stomachs of Burmese pythons removed from Everglades National Park and elsewhere in Florida. The authors noted that raccoons and opossums often forage for food near the water's edge, a habitat frequented by pythons in search of prey.

The authors suggested that one reason for such dramatic declines in such a short time is that these prey species are “naïve” – that is, they not used to being preyed upon by pythons since such large snakes have not existed in the eastern United States for millions of years. Burmese pythons over 16 feet long have been found in the Everglades. In addition, some of the declining species could be both victims of being eaten by pythons and of having to compete with pythons for food.

"It took 30 years for the brown treesnake to be implicated in the nearly complete disappearance of mammals and birds on Guam; it has apparently taken only 11 years since pythons were recognized as being established in the Everglades for researchers to implicate pythons in the same kind of severe mammal declines," said Robert Reed, a USGS scientist and co-author of the paper. "It is possible that other mammal species, including at-risk ones, have declined as well because of python predation, but at this time, the status of those species is unknown."

The scientists noted that in their native range in Asia, pythons have been documented to consume leopards. Consequently, even large animals, including top predators, are susceptible to python predation. For example, pythons have been documented consuming full-grown deer and alligators. Likewise, the authors state that birds, including highly secretive birds such as rails, make up about a fourth of the diet of Everglades pythons, and declines in these species could be occurring without managers realizing it.

"Our research adds to the increasing evidence that predators, whether native or exotic, exert major influence on the structure of animal communities," said John Willson, a study co-author, a research scientist at Virginia Tech University and author of the book Invasive Pythons in the United States. "The effects of declining mammal populations on the overall Everglades ecosystem, which extends well beyond the national park boundaries, are likely profound, but are probably complex and difficult to predict. Studies examining such effects are sorely needed to more fully understand the impacts pythons are having on one of our most unique and valued national parks."

The authors found little support for alternative explanations for the mammal declines, such as disease or changes in habitat structure or water management regimes.

"This severe decline in mammals is of significant concern to the overall health of the Park's large and complex ecosystem," said Everglades National Park superintendent Dan Kimball. "We will continue to enhance our efforts to control and manage the non-native python and to better understand the impacts on the Park. No incidents involving visitor safety and pythons have occurred in the Park. Encounters with pythons are very rare; that said visitors should be vigilant and report all python sightings to park rangers," Kimball said.

On Jan. 23, 2012, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service published a rule in the Federal Register that will ban the importation and interstate transportation of four non-native constrictor snakes (Burmese python, northern and southern African pythons, and the yellow anaconda) that threaten the Everglades and other sensitive ecosystems. These snakes are being listed as injurious species under the Lacey Act. In addition, the FWS will continue to consider listing as injurious five other species of nonnative snakes: the reticulated python, boa constrictor, DeSchauensee’s anaconda, green anaconda and Beni anaconda.

The paper, Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park, was published online on Jan. 30, 2012, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The authors are Michael E. Dorcas, Davidson College; John D. Willson, Virginia Tech University; Robert N. Reed, USGS; Ray W. Snow, NPS; Michael R. Rochford, University of Florida; Melissa A. Miller, Auburn University; Walter E. Meshaka, Jr., State Museum of Pennsylvania; Paul T. Andreadis, Denison University; Frank J. Mazzotti, University of Florida; Christina M. Romagosa, Auburn University; and Kristen M. Hart, USGS.

USGS In the Surge Sampling for Nutrients, Sediment, E. coli, and Pesticides

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 14:39:09 EDT

Follow USGS on twitter @USGS to learn where the crews will be each day.
Media: If you would like to accompany a USGS crew during sampling, contact Kara Capelli at kcapelli@usgs.gov.

As Hurricane Irene has left her mark along the East Coast, USGS crews are sampling water for pesticides, E. coli, nutrients, and sediment to document water quality in areas affected by the hurricane. This sampling effort is part of the federal government’s broad efforts to ensure public health and to support the state, tribal, and local response to the storm.

Sampling is taking place along the East Coast. Crews will follow the path of the hurricane where it brought high flows.

“Significant high water events are important to document, because a storm event like this can flush large quantities of nutrients, pesticides, and bacteria into rivers and also alter sediment flow,” said Charles Crawford, coordinator of the sampling effort. “When looking at long-term water quality trends and year to year variation, this hurricane could be a defining event for 2011, and it’s important that USGS captures a complete picture of what happens this year.”

Excessive nutrients in the Nation’s rivers, streams and coastal areas are a major issue for water managers, because they cause algal blooms that increase costs to treat drinking water, limit recreational activities, and threaten valuable commercial and recreational fisheries. Increased sediment can cause costly changes in shipping channels, where new sediment can require additional dredging.

“The USGS creates models that relate nutrient, pesticide and sediment concentrations to how much water is flowing,” said Crawford.” In order to have the most accurate model, it’s important to document concentrations during a high flow event such as this one.”

Additionally, high flows from the hurricane have the potential to create higher concentrations of E. Coli in areas that use surface water for drinking.

Southeastern Drought Worsens - USGS to Assess Impacts in Georgia, Florida and Alabama

OC_Web@usgs.gov (Office of Communications and Publishing) — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 14:06:47 EDT

ATLANTA, Ga. – Streamflow and groundwater conditions in southwestern Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida and Alabama continued to worsen during July. Waterways in many of the regions rivers are setting new record lows with gauges on the Flint, Suwannee, Ochlocknee, Alapaha, and Apalachicola rivers recording the lowest water levels in their history due to lower than normal rainfall. Groundwater levels were below normal and set new records in much of the southern Georgia, with some wells going dry.

To determine the impact of the drought on water resources and ecology of southwestern Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida and Alabama, almost two dozen researchers from three U.S. Geological Survey water science centers in Alabama, Florida and Georgia will conduct field studies in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Aucilla-Suwannee-Ochlockonee river basins over the next 10 days.

"This is the first effort of its kind ever completed during the peak of the summer irrigation season", said Brian McCallum, assistant director of the USGS Georgia Water Science Center. "This effort will help us see hydrologic and ecological conditions at their most stressed condition."

USGS field crews will visit more than 200 stream sites and 400 private and public supply wells to assess streamflow decline and drops in groundwater levels. Additionally, field crews will collect water-quality information that will help in the determination of the drought's impact on ecological conditions in the region. Later in the summer, they will visit the same stream sites to assess populations of fish and mussels affected by drought conditions. The work is being completed as part of the USGS WaterSmart initiative, a program to assess sustainability of water supplies in the ACF basin.

Residents interested in monitoring water levels across the state or across the country have several USGS tools available for keeping informed, WaterAlert, WaterWatch, and GroundWaterWatch.

The USGS WaterAlert service sends e-mail or text (SMS) messages when certain parameters, as measured by a USGS real-time data-collection station, exceed user-definable thresholds which may vary at each gauge. For example users can input their favorite water gage, and receive updates on water level, streamflow, water temperature or salinity.

The USGS WaterWatch and GroundWater Watch websites display maps, graphs and tables describing real-time, recent and past stream flow and groundwater conditions for the United States, with real-time data updated on an hourly basis.

"WaterWatch and GroundWaterWatch systems are great tools to compare streamflow and groundwater levels in terms of historical context", McCallum said. Used in conjunction with the WaterAlert notification system, these systems provide a comprehensive tool for keep track of the hydrologic conditions in Georgia.

The USGS is the nation's primary provider of flow and water level information for our nation's waterways. For more than 125 years, the USGS has monitored selected streams and rivers with about 7,700 streamgaging sites and 20,000 wells across the nation.