UWRF - CER Blog

St. Croix Valley Dashboard for December 2012 Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:31:00 +0000

St. Croix Valley Dashboard for December 2012 Released

The UW-River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the latest edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the seven county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data^* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

What's New

You may have noticed that the CER website has undergone some significant renovation. Some of the key features are new data tables and plots, links to download the data behind every table and links to embed the tables and plots on your own website. The website has also been reorganized to make navigation easier. The redesign of the CER site is just the beginning of a series of improvements, so keep checking back for new features.

Be sure to take a look at the Regional Economic Database available at http://www.uwrf.edu/CenterForEconomicResearch/RegionalData.cfm. The database has been reorganized by geographic region so you can easily download data on a particular topic for an entire region.

The US Economy

Output. The United States' economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter). Real GDP increased by 2.4 percent since one year previous. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment.^† The Philadelphia Fed Leading Economic Activity Index is forecasting that the national economy will grow at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5 over the next six months.

Labor Market. Total nonfarm employment rose by 146,000 in November and the unemployment rate decreased to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Key sectors of increased employment where retail trade, professional and business services, and health care. For more information about the national labor market see BLS Employment Situation Report.

Minnesota and Wisconsin

According to the latest Establishments Survey data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Wisconsin and Minnesota economies both lost jobs on net in October 2012. Wisconsin lost 7,500 jobs and Minnesota lost 8,100 jobs. Over the previous 12 months, Wisconsin has lost 10,500 jobs and Minnesota has gained 34,000 jobs. Both states unemployment rates fell in the month of October, to 6.9 percent in Wisconsin and 5.8 percent in Minnesota. Both are below the national average of 7.7 percent.

In October, Wisconsin saw job creation in construction (up 700 jobs), manufacturing (up 500 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (up 900 jobs). Wisconsin lost jobs in all other categories with the private sector losing 6,000 jobs and government losing 1,500 jobs. Minnesota gained in mining (up 200 jobs), construction (up 1,200 jobs), transportation (up 400 jobs) and information (up 800 jobs). Other sectors declined or stayed constant. Minnesota lost 5,600 private sector jobs and 2,500 government jobs.

The Valley

Labor Market. The October unemployment rate in the St. Croix Valley, at 5.3 percent, remains below both the Wisconsin and Minnesota averages and is 0.27 percentage points below one year previous. Total employment (Households Survey) continued the upward trend it began in January adding 3,262 jobs since October 2011. The labor force has also grown modestly, indicating that the St. Croix Valley is continuing to experience slow but steady recovery in the job market.

Housing Market. The housing market in the St. Croix Valley showing signs of stabilization. The latest release of the Case-Shiller Home Price index indicates that, in September 2012, home prices had risen in the Minneapolis MSA by 3.3 percent since one year previous. Moreover, both median home price and number of homes sold increased in November as compared to one year previous.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on this edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

^*Please note that most regional data is only available with a one to two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

^†Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) refers to the to market value of all final good purchased by consumers. Private Inventory investment refers to usiness spending on goods intended for sale, as well as the purchas of new housing.

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Dalbec) — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 19:41:00 +0000

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Wednesday September 24 with continuation of Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist.

The FOMC statement includes the following.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable ...

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. ...

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015. ... ¹

The Fed has decided to continue its unprecedented expansionary policy for the indefinite future. The purchase of securities and the lengthening of the maturity of securities held (operation twist) are expected to begin to have a bigger impact on spending, income and employment.

There is some evidence that that the housing market is beginning to expand. When housing prices begin to move up, we can again begin to see consumer wealth increasing and with it increased spending. This change is welcomed and may signal the end of the slow recovery. The disastrous loss of wealth for middle income America has been one of the most important reasons for the slow recovery. Good times ahead? Perhaps we will see faster growth of the economy, unless inflation appears or international economic conditions continue to deteriorate.

1. FOMC policy statement http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121024a.htm

St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard October

noreply@blogger.com (Carlin Bunting) — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 14:28:00 +0000

St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER)in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the October 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce, Polk and Dunn, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

The U.S. seasonally adjusted annually growth rate for the second quarter of 2012 was revised to 1.3 percent, which was 1.22 percentage points lower than one year previous. The national unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, down 1.3 percent from a year ago. The national inflation rate increased .27 percentage points from last month and is down 2.07 percentage point from last year.

In Wisconsin, nonfarm payroll employment increased in August, but has decreased by .2 percent from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points from a year ago to 7.5 percent, and has increased 0.2 percentage points from last month, according to the BLS survey of households.

The BLS survey of households finds that Wisconsin has gained 6,582 jobs over the last year. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 4,400 jobs over the last year. The two surveys seem to indicate that much of improvement in the Wisconsin labor market is driven by job creation in neighboring states, not within Wisconsin.

Minnesota’s unemployment rate in August was 5.9 percent, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than one year previous.The BLS survey of employers finds that Minnesota has gained 22,600 jobs over the last year.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activityindicated the Wisconsin economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of .0.26 percent in August , and the Leading Index is predicting .77 percent growth over next the six months. The Minnesota economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of .46 percent, but the Leading Index for Minnesota is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.42 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

Nationally, we have seen steady, albeit slow, improvement in the labor market. The national economy has added a total of 1,806,000 jobs year to date.

The Wisconsin economy lost 7,800 jobs net from July to August and has gained 4,400 jobs since August 2011. The Minnesota economy lost 2,000 jobs net from July to August and has gained 22,600 jobs since August 2011.

In August, Wisconsin lost jobs in construction, information, professional & business services, education and health services, leisure & hospitality and government. The most significant job losses came in manufacturing sector (4,500 jobs lost) and trade, transportation and utilities (2,000 jobs lost). Minnesota saw gains in 4 sectors sectors and decreases 7 sectors. The most significant losses coming in manufacturing sector (2,700 jobs lost) and trade transportation and utilities (3,400 jobs lost.)

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the Wisconsin state average. The regional unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.9 percent in the month of August and it remains lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 7.5 percent, and is the same as the Minnesota average of 5.9 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength is due to its proximity to the twin cities.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the October edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 14:44:00 +0000

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Thursday September 13 by doubling down on Quantitative Easing.

The FOMC statement includes the following.

The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative . . .

1. FOMC policy statement http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm

This significant expansion of quantitative easing with new purchases of mortgage-backed securities and the continuation of operation twist with purchases of long term securities as short term securities mature is an unprecedented step by the fed to stimulate the economy. It will undoubtedly be criticized by those who believe that continued purchases of securities will have little impact on production and employment, while threatening future inflation. It will also receive criticism as inappropriate in the election cycle. But, Chair Bernanke seems committed to continuation of this aggressive monetary policy, especially in light of the complete inability of the Federal Government to conduct spending and tax changes to stimulate the economy.

I am confident the Fed is not conducting policy to impact the election results. The research on this topic is convincing. The Fed protects its independent status by avoiding any partisan policy decisions.

Will it work? That is a much more difficult question to answer as it requires an assumption of what would have happened without the quantitative easing. The research indicates that there is an impact of monetary policy on production and employment, but that impact is not permanent. It seems Chair Bernanke is signaling that the Fed believes any impact is worth the risk.

St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 14:41:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER)in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the September 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce, Polk and Dunn, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

The U.S. seasonally adjusted annually growth rate for the second quarter of 2012 was revised to 1.7 percent, which 0.75 percentage points lower than one year previous. The national unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in August, down one percent from a year ago.

In Wisconsin, nonfarm payroll employment increased in July, by 0.7 percent from a year ago. The unemployment rate declined 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 7.3 percent, but has increased 0.3 percentage points from last month, according to the BLS survey of households.

The BLS survey of households finds that Wisconsin has gained 19,202 jobs over the last year. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 21,900 jobs over the last year. The two surveys seem to indicate that much of improvement in the Wisconsin labor market is driven by job creation in neighboring states, not within Wisconsin.

Minnesota’s unemployment rate in July was 5.8 percent, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than one year previous.The BLS survey of employers finds that Minnesota has gained 56,700 jobs over the last year.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activityindicated the Wisconsin economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of .0.96 percent in July , and the Leading Index is predicting essentially zero growth over next the six months. The Minnesota economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.70 percent, but the Leading Index for Minnesota is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.36 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

The nationally we have seen steady, albeit slow, improvement in the labor market. The national economy has added a total of 1,808,000 jobs year to date.

The Wisconsin economy lost 6,500 jobs net from June to July and has lost 21,900 jobs since July 2011. The Minnesota economy gained 6,800 jobs net from June to July and has gained 56,700 jobs since July 2011.

In July, Wisconsin lost jobs in all major sectors but three, other services, information and manufacturing. The most significant job losses came in the leisure and hospitality sector (5,300 jobs lost) and education and health services (2,000 jobs lost). Minnesota fared much better with increases in 6 major sectors and significant decreases in only 2 sectors.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the Wisconsin state average. The regional unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2 percent in the month of July and it remains lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 7.2 percent, but is slightly above the Minnesota average of 5.8 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength is due to its proximity to the twin cities.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the September edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 14:02:00 +0000

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Wednesday August 1 with no change in its policy. They stated the following.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. . . . The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.¹

The Federal Reserve System has a responsibility to conduct policy to achieve maximum sustainable output and employment and to promote "stable" prices. These goals are prescribed in a 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act.²

This dual goal is seen by some as contradictory. They believe that unemployment and inflation tend to move in opposite directions. A contradictory and commonly held belief is that the inverse relationship is at best temporary. The real impact of monetary policy is on inflation and the impact on output and employment is at best temporary.

If you believe the inverse relationship exists, then the lack of current inflation leads you to believe the Fed should be doing more to spur the economy and reduce unemployment. If you believe the impact of inflation is important and the impact on production is temporary, you are concerned that the Fed’s recent actions will eventually lead to inflation. July 31 marked the 100^th birthday of Milton Friedman. He died in 2006. Friedman’s research led him to believe that inflation is determined by the actions of the Fed and that the Fed has very limited ability to stimulate production and reduce unemployment.

The current Fed seems to be trying to have it both ways. Since inflation is low, they are pursuing an expansionary policy and are prepared to make it more expansionary. While at the same time they say, “Don’t worry, we can reverse the policy actions quickly if inflation becomes a problem.” This is exactly the sort of belief that Milton Friedman argued against. If he is right, we are eventually headed for trouble.

1. FOMC policy statement http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120801a.htm

2. Fed policy targets http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/goals.html

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Dalbec) — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 15:05:00 +0000

The FOMC held a two-day day meeting. April 24-25, to discuss the state of the economy and monetary policy and with only a slightly more optimistic view of the future, did not change policy. A number of the members of the committee believe unemployment will fall lower than they had predicted earlier in the year, despite the continued slow economic recovery. Despite this belief, the FOMC did not change its policy stance. Short term interest rates will continue at about zero. The committee reiterated their previous statement that the low interest rate policy will not change until late 2014.

The FOMC projects unemployment at about 8% at year end and they continue to believe that inflation will stay below 2%. Their position on interest rates has not changed since their March meeting. I have reproduced some of the statements from that meeting below. The FOMC is committed to keeping short and long term interest rates at record low level, despite increased criticism from Congress. There have always been members of Congress ready to criticize the Fed, but this criticism seems to be stronger in recent months. This story continues to develop.

From March 13, 2012 meeting:

The FOMC has recently clarified its position on inflation and Operation Twist. In its February 29, 2012 Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, they reiterated that the “security lengthening” known as operation twist which began in September will continue through the spring. Comparing 2007 to 2012, the Fed’s Treasury security portfolio has changed significantly. This is Operation Twist; the Fed is holding a much larger share of longer term securities and much smaller share of short term securities. It is scheduled to end in June. The effect of operation twist has been a significant reduction in long term interest rates, such as the mortgage rate being below 4%.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

April St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Dalbec) — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 15:40:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the April 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce and Polk, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 3.0 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.61 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate, at 8.2 percent, is 0.7 percentage points below the March 2011 rate. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality, but there were job losses in retail trade. The public sector was relatively unchanged posting a loss of about 1,000 jobs.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9 percent, in February, which was caused by a 0.2 percent increase in employment and 0.2 percent increase in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 16,900 jobs over the last year. This indicates that while the labor market conditions have improved in Wisconsin, that improvement has been driven by growth in neighboring states.

Minnesota’s unemployment rate was up slightly to 5.7 percent, in February, which was lead by a 0.2 percent decrease in employment and a 0.1 percent decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. Minnesota has gained 35,500 jobs over the last year, according to the establishments survey.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.38 percent in February ‘12, and Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.51 percent over next the six months, which is still too low to expect meaningful labor market recovery. The Minnesota economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.66 percent, and the Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.89 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy gained 1,000 jobs on net in the month of February but has lost 16,900 jobs since February ’11. The Minnesota economy gained 6,200 jobs on net in February and has gained 35,500 over the last year.

The month of February had very minor job losses or gains in almost all sectors. Wisconsin had job losses in the public sector of 1,100 jobs in February and has lost 17,400 jobs over the last year. Minnesota had job gains in the public sector of 2,500 jobs, but has also lost some 6,200 jobs over the last year.

In Wisconsin, there were gains in construction, manufacturing, information, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health services and other services. The largest gains for Wisconsin came in construction which added 2,300 jobs and education and health services which added 2,600 jobs.

In Minnesota there were gains in mining and logging, construction, information, education and health services, leisure and hospitality and other services. The largest job gains were in education and health services which added 5,100 jobs, also leisure and hospitality, and construction both added 1,300 jobs.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in February by 0.3 percentage point to 6.5 percent, lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 6.9 percent, greater than the Minnesota average of 5.7, and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.2 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength due to proximity to the twin cities.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of January but increased for Minneapolis. Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past nine months. Median home price and number of homes sold both increased for the month of March. Over the last year median home price and number of homes sold have increased by 0.7 percent and 17.9 percent respectively.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the April edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

March St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Dalbec) — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 15:05:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the March 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce and Polk, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 3.0 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.63 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, is 0.7 percentage points below the February 2011 rate. Job gains occurred in professional and businesses services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining. The public sector remained unchanged in February, although the public sector in 2011 lost an average of 22,000 jobs per month.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 6.9 percent, in January, which was lead by a 0.1 percent increase in employment and 0.1 percent decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, Wisconsin lost 12,500 jobs during the year of 2011. This indicates that while the labor market conditions have improved in Wisconsin, that improvement has been driven by growth in neighboring states.

Minnesota’s unemployment rate was also down slightly to 5.6 percent, in January, which was lead by a minor decrease in employment and a 0.2 present decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. Minnesota gained 15,500 jobs, according to the establishments survey.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6 percent in January ‘12, and Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.95 percent over next the six months, which is too low to expect meaningful labor market recovery. The Minnesota economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.88 percent, and the Leading Index is predicting a negative annual growth rate of 0.88 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy gained 12,500 jobs on net in the month of January but lost 12,500 jobs over 2011. The Minnesota economy gained 15,500 jobs on net in January and gained 35,800 over the last year.

Job losses occurred in a few areas, but overall most sectors grew during the month of January. Wisconsin and Minnesota both had job losses in the public sector of 3,200 and 1,700 respectively.

In Wisconsin, there were gains in mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitability. The largest gains for Wisconsin came in construction which added 4,200 jobs and trade transportation and utilities which added 3,700 jobs.

In Minnesota there were gains in mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, information, professional and business services, education and health services and other services. The largest job gains were in professional and business services which added 5,600 jobs and construction which added 4,200 jobs.

Conditions in the new regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in December by 0.25 percentage point to 5.6 percent, lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 7.0 percent, and comparable the Minnesota average of 5.7, and Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.2 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the twin cities.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of November but increased for Minneapolis. for the first time in four months. Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past eight months. Median home price decreased in the region for the month of February and number of homes sold increased in the region for the month of February. Number of homes sold was 19.5 percent higher than one year ago and Median home price is 4.1 percent lower than one year ago.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the March edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

February St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Dalbec) — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 18:16:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the February 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 2.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.40 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, continued to trend down. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining. The public sector, though, continued its downward tend, losing 14,000 jobs in January, and public sector job losses remain a significant short-run threat to continued recovery.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.1 percent, in December, which was lead by a 0.2 percent increase in employment and a very minor decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 1,700 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.43 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a negative .51 percent growth rate over the next year. The Coincident and Leading indices peeked in March ’11 and January ’11, respectively.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy lost 1,700 jobs on net in December, and has gained only 3,200 jobs over the last year.

Job losses occurred in many sectors, but a few sectors saw strong growth. The public sector gained 2,200 jobs, the first gain in 5 months. Manufacturing also grew by 3,300 jobs, along with trade, transportation & utilities sector gaining 2,700 jobs, and construction gaining 1,900 jobs. All other sectors of the economy lost jobs with the leisure and hospitality sector losing the most at 6,100 jobs. Overall the private sector lost 3,900 jobs and the public sector gained 2,200 jobs.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in December by 0.37 percentage point to 5.9 percent, lower than the state average of 7.1 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.5 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the twin cities.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of November. The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis increased for the month of November for the first time in four months. Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past seven months. Median home price increased and number of homes sold decreased in the region for the month of January. Number of homes sold was 6.7 percent lower than one year ago and Median home price is 8.7 percent higher than one year ago.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the February edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Dalbec) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 18:01:00 +0000

The Federal Open market committee concluded its meeting January 25 without any change in short term interest rate policy. They stated that this will continue this policy for three years (2014). A statement of policy three years in advance is unprecedented and it is more likely that this is simply a statement that the Fed sees this policy continuing indefinitely, until economic recovery gains strength. In addition, they have signaled a new round of quantitative easing. This is an aggressive purchase of bonds in an attempt to lower long term interest rates and spur the economy.

There was more disagreement among the policy makers than usual as six individuals at the meeting expressed a desire for interest rates to begin to increase this year.

Economic growth expectations have been slightly decreased to 2.2% – 2.7% and they believe the recovery faces significant risks. But, inflation seems to be well under control.

While low interest rates are thought to be necessary to encourage investment by business and new housing starts, there is an important negative consequence of the low interest rate policy. Individuals who have saved for retirement and depend upon income for bonds and bank CDs have little or no return on their saving.

It is important to understand that the time period for this policy announcement is very unusual. The assumption that the FED is able to forecast economic conditions far into the future and conduct policy today to have desirable impact in that distant future is questioned by most economists. It is unlikely that the forecasting is that accurate, so we should all place little confidence in the stated policy of no change in interest rate policy for two to three years in the future. Anything beyond late 2012 is at best a guess.

January St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 23:38:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the January 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 1.8 percent during the third quarter of 2011, up .48 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, at 8.5 percent, continued to trend down. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining. The public sector, though, continued its downward tend, losing 12,000 jobs in December.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.3 percent, in November, which was lead by a 0.3 percent increase in employment and a very minor decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 14,600 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.56 percent. The Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a positive 0.29 percent growth rate over the next year. Although a 0.29 percent increase is quite small, it is an improvement over the negative growth rates that have been predicted over the last few months. The Coincident and Leading indices peeked in March ’11 and January ’11, respectively.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy lost 14,600 jobs on net in November, and has gained only 4,500 jobs over the last year. Job losses occurred in nearly sectors all, with the exception of Other Services. The public sector lost an additional 2,900 jobs, manufacturing lost 3,100 jobs, trade, transportation & utilities lost 3,300 jobs, and health and education services sector lost 1,300 jobs. Overall, the private sector lost 11,700 jobs.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate held steady in November at 5.5 percent, lower than the state average of 7.3 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the twin cities.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis, Chicago and nationally all decreased for the month of October, continuing a downward trend they have maintained for the past 3 months. Median home price decreased and number of homes sold increased slightly in the region. Number of homes sold was 12.4 percent higher than one year ago. Median home price is 10.1 percent lower than one year ago. The housing market looks to continue its winter slumber as the weather gets colder.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the January edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 00:46:00 +0000

The Federal Open market committee concluded its meeting today without any change in policy. They recognize that the recovery is too slow and will continue their recent actions to keep the federal funds rate near zero and to gradually extend the maturity of the government securities they hold. As short term securities mature, they replace them with purchases of longer term securities.

The FOMC sees the economy expanding moderately with a gradual decrease in unemployment. However, they see a major downside risk with the European financial uncertainty.

The only dissenting vote on the FOMC was a Federal Reserve Bank President who wants greater ease.

December St. Croix Valley Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 19:40:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the December 2011 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 2.00 percent during the third quarter of 2011, up from the previous quarter. The unemployment rate decreased slightly in November to 8.6 percent. While the national growth rate has increased, it is still short of minimum three percent growth most economists agree is needed to see noticeable labor market recovery.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.7 percent, in October, caused by a slight increase in total employment and a slight decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 9,700 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.93 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a negative 0.67 percent growth rate over the next year. The Coincident and Leading indices peeked in March ’11 and January ’11, respectively. If this trend of contraction continues, it may cause labor market conditions to worsen over the coming year.

Labor Market

The national labor markets exhibited private sector job gains and public sector job losses. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 120,000 in November. The public sector continued its downward tend, losing 20,000 jobs in November, while the private sector preformed slightly better than last month gaining 140,000 jobs. The economy is still just keeping up with new entrances into the labor force. Thus, the unemployment rate changed little.

The Wisconsin economy lost 9,700 jobs on net in October, and has gained only 6,000 jobs over the last year. Job losses occurred in nearly every category, with key losses coming in high paying job categories. The public sector lost an additional 400 jobs, manufacturing lost 3,400 jobs, and health and education services sector lost 1,800 jobs. The sectors exhibiting increases in employment were the leisure and hospitability sector, which gained 3,500 jobs, the mining and logging sector, which gained 1,000 jobs, and the information sectors, which gained 1,000 jobs. Overall the private sector lost 9300 jobs and the public sector lost 400 jobs.

The state unemployment rate decreased slightly to 7.7 percent in October, which is the same as one year previous. Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate held steady in October at 5.6 percent. The region's unemployment rate is lower than the state average and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.4 percent. Signs seem to point that Minnesota economy is fairing better than its Wisconsin neighbors. The close proximity of the St. Croix Valley to Minnesota is probably connected to the region having a better economic outlook than majority of the state.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis, Chicago and nationally all decreased for the month of September. Median home price and number of homes sold in the Valley both decreased for the month of November. Number of homes sold was 3.7 percent higher than one year ago. The housing market looks to continue its late fall and winter slumber as the weather gets colder.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the December edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

November St. Croix Valley Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:15:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER), in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC), has released the November 2011 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.46 percent during the third quarter of 2011, up 1.46 percentage points from the previous quarter. The unemployment rate decreased slightly in October to 9 percent. While the national growth rate has increased, it is still short of the minimum three percent growth most economists agree is needed to see noticeable labor market recovery.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.8 percent in September and both total employment and labor force increased slightly, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 12,400 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3 percent in September, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a negative 0.3 percent growth rate over the next year. The Coincident and Leading indices peaked in March ’11 and January ’11, respectively. This negative growth trajectory indicated by both statistics is quite concerning, and may be cause to expect worsening labor market conditions over the next year.

Labor Market

While the national jobs report could have been better, there was some encouraging news. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 80,000 in October. The public sector continues to lose jobs, losing 24,000 jobs in October. The private sector performed better gaining 104,000 jobs in October. The economy created slightly more jobs than needed to keep pace with new entrants to the labor force, causing the unemployment rate to decrease slightly to 9 percent last month. With the postal service restructuring taking place and other public sector budget cuts predicted, the public sector is expected to continue losing jobs in coming months.

The Wisconsin economy lost 12,400 jobs on net in September and has gained only 21,200 jobs over the last year. The September losses where in a few key areas. The public sector lost an additional 11,500 jobs, Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs, and Professional and Business Services lost 1,300 jobs. The largest increase came from the Health and Education Services sector gaining 2,700 jobs; the Construction sector also made solid gains with 1,500 jobs created. Overall the private sector lost 900 jobs and the public sector lost 11,500 jobs.

The state unemployment rate decreased slightly to 7.8 percent in September, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than one year previous. Conditions in the regional labor market are still slightly better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate decreased in September by 0.49 percentage points to 5.6 percent. This change was driven by total employment remaining the same and a 0.7 year over year percentage decrease in the labor force. The region's unemployment rate is lower than the state average of 7.8 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.0 percent.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis and Chicago, have shown slight increases in June, July, and August but the index still shows home values are considerably below levels from one year ago. The Case-Shiller Home Price index nationally decreased slightly in the month of August. Median home price in the Valley is also below levels from one year ago, but the number of homes sold increased from one year ago.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the November edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 16:17:00 +0000

It seems that the Federal Reserve has officially recognized what seems clear to everyone watching economic developments. The recovery is slower than expected and it will take some time for us to return to healthy economic growth and more acceptable unemployment.

The Fed has revised downward its projections for GDP growth and unemployment

In fresh quarterly projections, the Fed lowered forecasts for growth and raised forecasts for unemployment for this year, 2012 and 2013. Policymakers do not see the jobless rate, now at 9.1 percent, falling to a level they consider consistent with full employment even by the outer edge of their forecasting horizon, the final quarter of 2014.

Officials now expect the economy to grow by 2.5 percent to 2.9 percent next year, down from 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent they were expecting in June, with inflation muted over the forecast horizon.

They see the unemployment rate going no lower than 8.5 percent to 8.7 percent by the end of 2012, up from the 7.8 percent to 8.2 percent range envisioned in June.

In response to this negative forecast, the Fed plans to continue its relatively easy money policy.

At its meeting ending November 2, the Federal Reserve the Committee decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. This is the Operation Twist where the Fed replaces short term securities in its portfolio with longer teem securities. The purpose is to continue the downward pressure on long term interest rates, including mortgage rates.

Sort term rate policy is unchanged as well, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.

October Momentum West Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 15:22:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with Momentum West has released the October edition of the Momentum West Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the 10 county Momentum West Economic Development Region. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

Labor Market and Spending

Spending in the Momentum West has continued to remain strong since July, as measured by county sales tax revenue. For the month of September county sales tax revenue increased by 5.2 percent. Another promising numbers for the region is increases in new vehicle registration by 2.9 percent for the month of September and 21.3 percent from one year previous.

The Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis and Chicago, as well as, nationally have shown slight increases in May, June and July, but the index still shows home values are considerably below one year ago. Median home price in the Momentum West for September is lower than it was a year ago, but the number of homes sold has increased by 33.2 percent from one year ago.

For additional information on the October edition of the Momentum West Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or Noel Eggebraaten at neggebraaten@cvtc.edu or (715) 874-4673.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

October St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 10:30:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the October 2011 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

National the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 1% during the second quarter of 2011, and the unemployment rate in September was unchanged at 9.1%. Extremely low growth nationally provides some explanation as to why unemployment remains stubbornly high. In order to reduce the unemployment rate, most economist agree the economy needs to grow a pace of 3% or more.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was up slightly, 0.1%, in August. This increase was the result of a decrease in total employment and a decrease in the labor force, providing further evidence that the economic recovery may be staling. The state grew a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.13% as measured by the Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity, and the Leading Index is predicting less then 1% growth over the next six months. As with the national economy, this rate of growth is too slow to affect meaningful recovery in labor markets. Indeed, if the state economy continues to preform this sluggishly, we would expect to see the unemployment rate increase in the coming months.

Labor Market

While the national jobs report could have been better, there was some encouraging news. First, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +85,000 jobs to +127,000 jobs, and the change for August was revised up from 0 jobs to +57,000 jobs. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 103,000 in September; though, the increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. The economy created slightly more jobs than needed keep pace with new entrance to the labor force, but the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.1 percent last month. The fiscal condition of the public sector continues to way on the economy. The public sector lost 34,000 jobs in September. Moreover, concerns over low economic growth are growing.

The Wisconsin economy lost 2,300 jobs on net in August, and has gained only 24,700 jobs over the last year. The lost jobs where in several key areas in August. The public sector lost an additional 1,500 jobs; Professional and Business services lost 1,500 jobs; and Construction lost 3,000 jobs. One the other hand, the largest increase came from the leisure and hospitality sector where 2,000 jobs were created. Leisure and hospitality sector tends to be composed of lower paid jobs then the public sector, which highlights the importance of looking beyond net jobs created when evaluating economic growth. One a more positive note, Health and Education services and Manufacturing both saw increases in employment totaling about 2,000 jobs that may be higher paying.

The state unemployment rate increased slightly to 7.9 percent in August, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than one year previous. Conditions in the regional labor market are still slightly better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate decreased in August by 0.55 percentage points to 6.3 percent. This change was driven by a 0.7 year over year percentage increase in total employment and a 0.1 year over year percentage increase in the labor force. The region's unemployment rate is lower than the state average of 7.9 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.7 percent.

One explanation economic performance of the St. Croix Valley relative to the rest of the state of Wisconsin is its proximity to Minnesota and the Twin Cities. Minnesota is exhibiting considerably faster growth than its upper Midwest neighbors.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis and Chicago, as well as, nationally have shown slight increases in May, June and July, but the index still shows home values are considerably below one year ago. Median home price in the Valley is also below one year ago, but the number of homes sold increased.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the October edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

The Fed to implement “Operation Twist”

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:31:00 +0000

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Wednesday, September 21, 2011, with no change in its traditional policy instrument, the federal funds rate. This interest rate is the rate at which banks borrow from each other. The Fed believes that the factors affecting the economy in a negative way are temporary. No change in short term interest rate policy is warranted.

Economic growth remains slow, employment is not increasing fast enough to lower the unemployment rate, but inflation is moderating.

However, the Federal Reserve System has decided to implement “Operation Twist”. This action is to gradually increase the average maturity of the securities that the Federal reserve own. The table shows the current distribution of securities owned by the Fed.

Current Distribution 0f Securities Owned by the Fed as of September 2011
Treasury Bills (less than 1 year)	$18,423 million
Notes & Bonds (2 year – 20 year)	$1,631,024 million
Mortgage back securities (acquired to support banks during the financial crisis)	$884,945 million

Operation twist would result in the Fed selling short term securities (3 year maturity or less) and buying equal numbers of longer term maturities (6 years – 30 years) and to replace the mortgage backed securities as they mature.

The purpose of this action is to put downward pressure on longer term interest rates, including mortgages and corporate bonds. This should increase borrowing for home purchases and capital expansion by business.

A major concern of the Fed and a reason for the continuing slow recovery is that while banks have money to lend, they are simply holding these as excess reserves.

Bank Reserves as of September 2011
Bank Total Reserves	$1,660,440 million
Bank Excess Reserves (94.5% of total)	$1,568,590 million
Bank Required Reserves	$91,850 million

In normal times, banks hold few excess reserves. Prior to the financial crisis in August 2008, bank excess reserves were 4% of total reserves compared to 94.5% in September 2011. Today, banks are holding vast amounts of excess reserves. We will not see a normal recovery from the recession until banks start lending their excess reserves. Operation Twist is designed to increase demand for these funds.

September St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 22:06:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the September 2011 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

The economic recovery seems to be stumbling. The national economy created zero net new jobs in August ’11, but the unemployment rate held at 9.1%. At the state level in Wisconsin, the unemployment rate for July ’11 was 7.8% up 0.2 percentage points from June ’11 but down 0.4 percentage points from one year previous. More troubling than the increase in the unemployment rate is the loss of 8,200 jobs in July and the downward revision of the number of jobs created in June by 1,500. On top of that, the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Indicator is current projecting that the Wisconsin Economy will grow by less than one present over the next six months. Overall, the September dashboard is indicating that we may be entering a new recession.

The unemployment rate in the St. Croix Valley continues to be below the average unemployment rate in the state. July ’11 unemployment rate is 6.9 percent, which is down slightly from one year previous. However, both total employment and labor force decreased during July suggesting renewed weakness in the local labor market.

Spending in the Valley, as measured by sales tax revenue, remained strong though. Sales tax revenue collected in August increased by 15.6% from one year previous, and new vehicle registrations increased by 20.1% from for one year ago. These metrics represent the most optimistic indicators this month. The housing market is still showing significant weakness. Median home price is still below median price this time last year.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the September edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Insight on the Fed’s View of Economic Conditions

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 20:11:00 +0000

Chairman Bernanke at the Jackson Hole conference offered some insight on the Fed’s view of economic conditions and policy on Friday August 26. He believes that coming out of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression has been difficult, slow but we have seen significant positive developments. Globally, economic growth ed by emerging economies has been strong, but the US economic recovery has been slower than desired. The financial system has recovered nicely and is strong today as a result of important and necessary changes to regulation of risk taking. Lending to small and medium size business has been tight. Manufacturing production has risen sharply. The recovery has been too slow to bring unemployment down; in particular the housing industry that often recovers quickly from a recession has been slow due to the hangover of foreclosed homes. The significant decline in home prices has been a large drop in consumer wealth and this has depressed consumer spending.

Looking forward, the Fed believes the recovery will continue at a slow pace and inflation will stay below 2%. In response, the Fed will act to keep short term interest rates very low for the next two years. In the longer run analysis, the Fed believes its policy has its greatest impact on inflation. As a result the Fed will monitor economic conditions, attempt to stimulate short term expansion, but it recognizes this expansionary policy can not be maintained without a threat to longer term inflation.

August Momentum West Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 18:37:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with Momentum West has released the July edition of the Momentum West Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the 10 county Momentum West Economic Development Region. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

Download the Dashboard

The dashboard includes two new indicators this month: the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading and Coincident Indices of economic activity. The Coincident Index of economic activity provides an estimate of Wisconsin’s economic growth rate expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate, and the Leading Index of economic activity forecasts economic growth for Wisconsin over the next six months. These two indices provide information about the over all health of the state economy and give an indication of future economic performance. Both the Leading and Coincident Indices indicate that the state economy is growing annually by about 3.0 percent.

The Labor Market

The state unemployment rate increased slightly to 7.6 percent in June '11, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than June '10. Conditions in the regional labor market are are similar to the state average. The regional unemployment rate decreased in June '11 by 0.12 percentage points to 7.5 percent. This change was driven by a 0.3 year over year percentage decrease in total employment and a 0.5 year over year percentage decrease in the labor force. The region's unemployment rate is comparable to the state average of 7.6 percent and higher than the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.9 percent.

The Wisconsin economy created 9,500 jobs on net in June, but lost jobs in several key areas. Particularly, the public sector has lost an additional 3,400 jobs marking the third straight month of declines and a total loss of 4,700 jobs since June 2011. One the other hand, the largest increase came from the leisure and hospitality sector where 6,200 jobs were created. Leisure and hospitality sector tends to be composed of lower paid jobs then then the public sector, which highlights the importance of looking beyond the net jobs created when evaluating economic growth.

The Housing Market

The region saw a monthly decrease in median home price, but nether median home price nor the number of homes sold are seasonally adjusted, thus year over year change is a better measure. Median home price in the region declined for all but two counties, St. Croix and Dunn. However, home prices in the region were up from one year ago. The median home price for the ten county region in July '11 was approximately $162,848 which is 5.5 percent above July '10, and the Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis and Chicago did show monthly increases in May '11. The number of homes sold in the region increased year over year by 27.4 percent to 521.

For additional information on the August edition of the Momentum West Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or Noel Eggebraaten at neggebraaten@cvtc.edu or (715) 874-4673.
*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

August St. Croix Valley Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 13:38:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the August 2011 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

Download the August Dashboard

The Labor Market

While the national jobs report was far from stellar, Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 117,000 in July, the general consensus is that the July jobs report is much better than many economist feared. The economy created just enough jobs to keep pace with new entrance to the labor force, and as a result, the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.1 percent last month. Moreover, job creation for June was revised up to 46,000 and job creation for May was revised up to 53,000. While this news is welcome, the fiscal condition of the public sector continues to way on the economy. The public sector lost 37,000 jobs in July, which marks the ninth straight month of public sector job loss.

At the state-level the story in June was mixed. The Wisconsin economy created 9,500 jobs on net, but lost jobs in several key areas. Particularly, the public sector lost an additional 3,400 jobs marking the third straight month of declines and a total loss of 4,700 jobs since June 2011. One the other hand, the largest increase came from the leisure and hospitality sector where 6,200 jobs were created. Leisure and hospitality sector tends to be composed of lower paid jobs then the public sector, which highlights the importance of looking beyond net jobs created when evaluating economic growth. While there was net job creation in June, over all income may be diminishing.

The state unemployment rate increased slightly to 7.6 percent in June '11, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than June '10. Conditions in the regional labor market are still slightly better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate increased in June '11 by 0.6 percentage points to 7.0 percent. This change was driven by a 0.5 year over year percentage increase in total employment and a 0.1 year over year percentage increase in the labor force. The region's unemployment rate is lower than the state average of 7.6 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.9 percent.

The Housing Market

The housing market story is similar to last month. The region saw another monthly increase in median home price, but nether median home price nor the number of homes sold are seasonally adjusted, thus year over year change is a better measure. Median home price in the Valley declined in July ’11 by 4.0 percent from July '10 to $137,750. However, the Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis and Chicago did show monthly increases in May '11. The number of homes sold in the St. Croix Valley increased year over year by 11.5 percent to 174.

Spending

Spending in the Valley, as measured by sales tax revenue, decreased in July ’11 by 14.7% from July ’10, and new vehicle registrations in July ’11 increased by 20.1% from July ’10. Diminished spending is troubling, but increased registrations still indicates continued, al be it fragile, economic growth.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the August edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

July Momentum West Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 17:26:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with Momentum West has released the July edition of the Momentum West Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor and housing markets in the 10 county Momentum West Economic Development Region. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

The Labor Market

The regional labor market showed a lackluster performance in May. The unemployment rate declined in May by 0.6 percentage points from one year previous to 6.8 percent. This change was driven by a 0.3 year over year percentage increase in total employment and 0.3 year over year percentage decrease in labor force. While the increase in employment, and resulting decline in the unemployment rate, are welcome, the decrease in the labor force is troubling. The region's unemployment rate is lower than the state average of 7.4 percent, but higher than the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.3 percent.

Nationally, layoffs are picking up. Cisco Systems, Goldman Sachs Group and Lockheed-Martin have all announced significant layoffs, and the chain bookseller, Borders, announced it will be going out of business. Indeed many companies, Nationwide Insurance is one example, are looking to cut costs. The data supports a similar conclusion that the short run risk of recession is growing and may, at present, outweigh long run concerns over the budget deficit. Total number of layoffs increased from April to May by 172,000 people. This is the largest monthly increase year to date.

Total Layoffs and Discharges

Moreover, the number of persons unemployed less than five weeks, which is often used as a proxy for total layoffs, has increased three of the last four months.

Number Unemployed Less then Five Weeks

Though the Wisconsin economy appears to be preforming slightly better than the national economy, the national picture certainly indicates that road to recovery may be less certain than we would like.

The Housing Market

The housing market may be showing some summer strengthening, but year over year comparisons still indicate a grim reality. The region saw another monthly increase in median home price and number of homes sold. While this is encouraging, nether median home price nor number of homes sold are seasonally adjusted, thus the recent strengthening may be merely the summer home buying market increase. However, the Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis did show its first positive year over year change in April since June '10.

Home prices in the region remain significantly lower than one year ago. The median home price for the ten-county region in June '11 was approximately $191,000, which is 23 percent bellow June '10.

For additional information on the July edition of the Momentum West Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or Noel Eggebraaten at neggebraaten@cvtc.edu or (715) 874-4683.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

July St. Croix Valley Dashboard Released

noreply@blogger.com (Logan Kelly) — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 19:11:00 +0000

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the July 2011 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

Download the latest dashboard

The dashboard includes several new features this month. First, unemployment rate, total employment and labor force data has been added for both the St. Croix Valley region as a whole and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area. The Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area includes much of the three county St. Croix Valley and economic conditions in this MSA are an important indicator of current and future conditions in the St. Croix Valley. Second, the prices received by producers of the key agricultural commodities have been included. These prices are the average price received from the sale of corn, milk and soybeans to their first buyers.

The Labor Market

Conditions indicate continuing, slow recovery in the regional labor market. The unemployment rate declined in May by one percentage point from one-year-previous to 6.4 percent. This change was driven by a 0.4 year over year percentage increase in total employment and essentially unchanged labor force. The region's unemployment rate is lower than the state average of 7.4 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.3 percent.

Nationally, the data indicates that the short run risk of recession is still persists and may at present outweigh long run concerns over the budget deficit. The economy added 18,000 jobs in June, which is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Moreover, job creation statistics for both April and May were both revised down. The change in total employment for April was revised from 232,000 jobs created to 217,000 jobs created, and the change for May was revised from 54,000 jobs created to 25,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate was likewise unchanged at 9.2 percent.

A significant driver of the national economy's inability to create new jobs has been the loss of public sector jobs. While the private sector created 57,000 jobs nationally in June, government employment fell by 39,000 jobs (Wisconsin has lost approximately 6,000 public sector jobs between May '11 and May '10). This continues a trend of declining public sector employment spanning back to 2008, and the public sector remains the only major sector of the economy to continue to exhibit consistently falling employment.

Decreasing government payrolls is a serious challenge to the labor market recovery because one public sector job lost can lead to additional private sector job losses or inhibit the private sector from creating jobs. This phenomenon is known as the multiplier effect. Because public sector jobs are often higher skilled, higher paid jobs, their loss causes a significant loss in aggregate income and thus spending. This spending provides income to businesses producing a wide variety of goods and services, and the loss of that income can contributing to many businesses' reluctance to hire new workers.

The Housing Market

The housing market may be showing some summer strengthening, but year over year comparisons still indicate a grim reality. The region saw another monthly increase in median home price and number of homes sold. While this is encouraging, nether median home price nor the number of homes sold are seasonally adjusted, thus the recent strengthening may be merely the summer home buying market increase. However, the Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis did show its first positive year over year change in April since June '10.

Home prices in the St. Croix Valley remain significantly lower than one year ago. The median home price for the three county region in June '11 was approximately $132,000, which is nearly 15 percent bellow June '10.

Spending

Spending in the Valley, as measured by sales tax revenue, increased in June ’11 by 4.9% from June ’10, and new vehicle registrations in May ’11 increased by 13.4% from May ’10. Both of these metrics indicate continued economic growth despite a stubbornly slow labor market recovery and a tepid housing market.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the July edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.