We are celebrating our 4th of July and many of us witnessed the sparkles in the night sky to remind us of our Country’s birthday.

As with the Country’s birthday real estate is now showing signs of sparkles as well.

Not with the dazzle of what we saw in the night sky on the 4th.  It is somewhat more mute in the market place but the amber’s are there and when this side-way activity is complete there will a significant acceleration upward in home prices.

Items contributing to this price acceleration will include:

1.  Of course there is the pent up demand that will make itself felt.

2.  Cost faced by sellers to make their single family homes “green”.

On the surface it would seem that sellers will have to eat this added cost.  But if Economics 101 taught us anything eventually these cost will passed through to the buyer’s thereby increasing prices.

How “green” green will be is any-one’s guess but in California one could expect that seismic upgrades may be required; perhaps solar panels and independent electric home grids; dual-pane windows; and who knows what else the Federal and State bodies will include.

What will probably happen is what I mentioned a number of years ago….we will have a two class society…..one owning property and those who do not and cannot because of the cost.

There most certainly will be an outcry for affordable housing but the conditions being applied will go counter to what is intended.

Ventura County.

The sideways action still continues with the County as a whole showing itself to be a seller’s market.

Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are all seller markets.  The Conjo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral.  Buyer markets continue in the Santa Rosa Valley and the Beach communities.

Sales since the beginning of the year total 3,869 single family homes.  This is a 26% increase for a comparable period in 2008.

Prices have been inching upward since November/December, 2008 and it appears that in June, 2009 (see abbreviatedtable below) that the average home sale increased quite a bit.  This trend (see monthly % column) was started about November/December, 2008 and has continued through June.  This trend has to continue for the next few months to create the base required for accelerated prices.

Be aware of hiccups.  There is the 2nd wave of mortgage problems coming onto the market; unemployment continues to be a problem; and new job creation is nil.  But history has shown that the real estate market has plowed through these challenges and showed significant home prices.

When can one see these accelerated prices starting to take effect.  Probably the latter part of 2010, early 2011.  Between now and then there will be some meandering to the upside until 2013 then watch out.

I picture something like the following curve that will come into play.  As you can see prices in 2018-2020 will have double those witnessed in the 2005-2006 time frame.

Who says real estate is not a good investment!

Your comments are welcome.

• You thought you were safe.  Those with high credit scores may be in for a shock….someone can steal your identity.  The following article is worth the reading.  If you do not protect yourself no one else will.   http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/YourCreditRating/High-credit-scores-Be-careful.aspx

• U.S. Postal System: RIP

• Posted Jun 15 2009, 06:05 AM by Douglas McIntyre.  http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/?fpn=u%20s%20postal%20system%20rip.   This articlediscusses the demise of the postal system as we know it because of broad band and other electronics medias that are now on the drawing board.  It is not going to occur over night but it will happen.  The Internet is about to claim another victim.

• Noted in the United Kingdom were some large supermarkets in England are now getting into the banking business.  I wonder when that is going to come over to the States.

• In an article read this week…..”Appraisals Roil Real Estate Deals” (Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2009 by James Hagerty and Ruth Simons)…..the authors note that very conservative estimates on homes is making refinancing and selling extremely difficult.   With banks now in charge of appraisals (per se) is akin to the fox acting as a guard in the chicken coop.  Home prices (at least for the time being) will be controlled by banks and not the market.  “Since the code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers, this has encouraged lenders to outsource the selection to appraisal-management companies which take a sizable cut of the appraisal fee.  As a result, appraisers are under pressure to do it faster, do it cheaper (quote from article).”  And just watch what happens with multiple appraisals.  Multiple appraisals will take place if the buyer elects to switch lenders because of better deal.  It will be surprising to see if each appraisal comes in around the same value.  To minimize this cost the Mortgage Bankers Association is looking into the possibility to make the appraisal “portable” from one lender to another.  We shall see.

National Real Estate.

It appears that prices are starting to change direction….upward.  Still overall the market is still trying to get legs.  It is taking longer largerly due to high unemployment in some areas and the continued lack of new jobs creation.

Ventura County.

One word:  SLOW.  But prices are edging upward.  Overall sales in Ventura County are 28% higher (comparing periods Jan. 1 thru June 20 for the years 2008 and 2009).  Overall Ventura County is a seller’s market but there are areas such as Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura and Oxnard Beaches that still remain buyer markets.

The Conejo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral while the areas of Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are seller markets.  In fact there were no recorded sales in Fillmore over the last week which I find interesting (but not unusual).

Unemployment and job creation need to come into line for the real estate market to get legs.  It will go up on its own but very slowly.  Many people are staying put and waiting the market out.  The “squeeze effect”, as I call it. 

When the market gets legs, watch out. 

There are bigger things for us to see, investigate and challenge.  Life here on Earth is great; out there who knows!  But we will go and find out.  Why?  We are humans and it is in our bones (oops! our DNA) to face up to challenges.

My musing for the week.  Lao-tzu who lived 2,500 years ago wrote “Every human being’s essential nature is perfect and faultless, but after years of immersion in the world we easily forget our roots and take on a counterfeit nature”.

That is state we are in today.  We have forgotten our roots.

The National Real Estate Market.

Things are turning good so says the late media coverage.  Change has been happening since November, 2008 but now constructive signs have emerged showing that things are on the upswing.

Looking at the most recent government view of the National real estate market one can see that the East coast and of course Nevada, Arizona and California continue to be under pressure.

Other States in the Central region also appear to be under some minor pressure.  States such as Nebraska, Kansas, etc., have declined but others such as Michigan, Illinois to name a few have shown signs of improvement.

The driver for a healthy real estate market is financing and the banks have been struggling on a number of fronts to get the real estate financing righted.  But it takes time.  The other thing that will help real estate is lower unemployment, new job creation and less help from Washington, DC.  When Congress gets involved all things fall apart.

When looking at the real estate market (first quarter of 2008) approximately one year ago every State has had a declined except for Alaska.  It is the only State that has shown appreciation throughout Country over the last year.

This is the 1st quarter, 2009 National Real Estate Market.  

This what the market looked like in fourth quarter of 2008.

This was the picture of the National real estate market in the 1st quarter of 2008.

Ventura County.

The squeeze continues.

Listings continue to decrease; sales are now decreasing; markets in Santa Paula and Oxnard show minimal inventory while the beach area show significant inventory. 

Fillmore, Santa Paula, Camarillo, Oxnard, Ventura and Simi Valley/Moorpark are now showing as seller areas.  One would expect to see prices starting to increase in these areas shortly.

The Santa Rosa Valley, Oak View/Ojai and the beach areas are buyer markets.  The Conejo Valley is neutral at this time.

Prices are showing signs of increasing.  As one can expect it appears that the lower end price range properties have been absorbed; there is some preliminary sales evidence suggesting that properties in the $ 400,000 to $ 750,000 are now attracting buyers.

The following table indicates some price upswing.  It is preliminary and a few more months are needed to show a trend but there is some evidence that price appreciation may now be taking place.

The monthly value % does note that the lost in home equity has started to decrease and compared to November, 2008, there has been a 50% increase in property values in the County.  Some will see this as a 50% decrease in the loss of property value but the bottom line is that the market has changed and November, 2008 appears to have been the bottom of the down cycle.

Now if unemployment and new jobs are created in Ventura County everything will be super great to have a significant advance.

I expect to see the growth rate following the chart below.  So hang on…..it is going to be a lot of fun.

As noted in the last illustration we are now entering into the gold run up.  We are certainly blessed to live in this area of the Country.  Ventura County home prices are set to explode.

There will be many people who will become millionaires from the real estate they purchased during the down turn.

Those that want to become millionaires should be buying now because if you don’t you will have to wait for another 10-12 years before the cycle starts again.

Comments are welcomed.

Good press from news outlets is also creating positive vibes for the market.

To be sure the politicians will play the game but when push comes to shove they had little to do with the change in direction. 

The market would be doing the same with or without them.  One should be concern that the politicians will once again stick their nose into the system and screw things up.

The good intentions of a home in every pot did not work out.  In fact a great many people have been hurt with this political folly.  But intentions aside the system is going back to hard nose business basics and this will continue for several more years and then the follies will start over again.

There will be some significant economic events that will slow the market but it will not create a free fall as had been the case over the last few years.

Economic events that will slow the market:

• gasoline will go back up to $ 4.50 or higher.  Throughout the World and in the United States, oil people are not drilling, plant capacity increases have been shelved. 
• Food prices will sky rocketbecause of ethanol and less planting in the farm land.  Politicians know this is a folly but want to continue the folly to satisfy constituents and save face.  Ethanol has been shown to be a pollutant but the folks in Washington have too much invested to yield to common sense today.  
• Environmental costs (cap and trade) will be a hideous tax on the United States with most other Nations giving lip service but basically by-passing this issue.
• California is going to the brink of bankruptcy.  It’s a matter of wills but Sacramento will realize that unless significant cuts are made they will be out of a job.

The National real estate market will continue to plod upward because States and local agencies need to have real estate do good to collect taxes.

Ventura County.

The Ventura County real estate market as evidence by the table below is doing well.  There will be hiccups but it appears that the base has been settled.  We should continue to witness an increase in sales but it will take a little longer for prices to start upward.  One will see sales continue to make a V shape configuration while prices will follow a U shape configuration for the next several months.

This table also notes that the Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Santa Paula and Fillmore areas as seller markets.  The Conejo Valley and Camarillo are neutral and the other areas (Ventura Beaches, Oxnard Beaches and the Oak View/Ojai) are buyer markets. 

Overall the County is a neutral market and has an average 4 months inventory.

Unemployment and the lack of job creation in the County will cause a side-ways motion until the last quarter of 2009.

Job creation is going to be a zinger.  Large and medium size businesses will be facing significant increases in employee health care and taxes.  This does bode well for job creation.  Visit My Musings Of The Week and I think you will get a sense of what is in store.

What may help is the significant increase in sole proprietor-ships and federal, state and local governments hiring.

However the public sector is over weighing the economics of scale and eventually there will be a drastic decreases in head count as time marches on.

The general public and the private sector will not be able to shoulder the burden and all sort of changes will take place which will not be very pleasant for a lot of people.

Expect big changes in educations and State government headcounts.  The tea party is set to begin.

This next chart (below) shows the distribution of single family residential sales in the County for the period of January 1, 2009 through May 9, 2009.  Approximately 25% of the homes sold in the County in this time period fell into the price range of $ 300,001 to $ 400,000.  65% of all single family homes sold in the County was for $ 400,000 or less.

75% of the homes sold in Oxnard were below $ 300,000; 82% of the homes sold in Fillmore and Santa Paula were below $ 300,000.  These communities accounted for 37% of all sales in the County for the period ending May 9, 2009.

Periodically I will update this chart but I suspect significant changes towards the upper price ranges towards the latter part of this year. 

The projection that had been made last September, 2008 http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2008/09/07/ventura-county-real-estate-doings-for-week-ending-september-6-2008/ appears to be on track.

Illustrated in the September, 2008 article was the Ventura County Forecast through the year 2022. 

As noted it is expected that the previous highs (2003-2005) will be exceeded by at least 50% or more in Ventura County.  Those living within 25 miles of the ocean can expect higher appreciation.

As mentioned earlier the U configuration price jumps will really show up around the year 2014 and then watch out. 

There have been many homes withdrawn from the market place over the last several years waiting for better prices.  Listings have continued downward so in effect what is happening is a “spring” effect will take place allowing prices to surge upward as shown above.  Standard economics 101, supply and demand.

Your comments are welcomed.

Swine flu.  There was talk that we should close the border because of this flu.  Why can’t the border be closed to stop illegals entering the country or to stop drugs or arms.  I wonder if our political people are talking with a fork tongue?

Bully Pulpit.  It is interesting reading to see the steps being taken in schools to minimize bullying amongst students.  Various penalties are imposed including dismissal.  When the bullying occurs from the White House what are the penalties being imposed?

Certainly our press corps has been very quiet regarding the bully bully activity going on in this Administration.  It sets the stage for other Presidents to do the same or more.  If it is decided by some President that the press should write things as determined by Washington, I wonder if the press will be more vocal then?  Well I am certainly out of focus….this is being done already.  Interesting don’t you think?

From all indications it appears that this Administration and Congress want all people teetered to the whims of the government.  This appears to be the same attitude of State governments and local governments. 

There is an attitude that people must live in fear simply because a few lunatics want to take over the way we live.  If you object to this, look in the mirror because you may be the reason it is happening!

To make the point.  I live in a small town.  A lady wanted to build herself a restaurant but the City Planners made her add retail shops (I suspect it for the best use of land, etc).

A similar action was taken with an individual who wanted to build an apartment complex.  They had to add retail shops.  In this second case none of the shops are occupied and haven’t been since the complex was built about one year ago.

Who is responsible for keeping these shops occupied and is this lady or the apartment builder being re-reimbursed for something they do not want?  I do not think so and if they are why isn’t it public policy to tell the citizens what is being done and why.  

General Motors.  I cannot believe I heard this.  Since the Union has basically taken over General Motors there is the consideration that many of the GM cars will be built overseas.  Excuse me….what happened to “built in the USA” fan fare.  Management looks for the cheapest way to produce and stay competitive.

Political Dismay.  California politicians are besides themselves seeing  that the various measures being proposed appear to be losing.

Well being honest in the beginning may have been the better course of action.  So why politicians think (based on what has happened in California over the last 10-15 years) that we should believe them today is beyond me.  When our friends in Sacramento see money that is an open invitation to spend.  As far as they are concern, everyday is a rainy day.  

What we should do is replace all of them and start fresh.  Let’s take the steps the Federal government took with General Motors CEO.  The Federal government got rid of him.  If it is good to take this action in the private sector why not the public sector.

Keep replacing until we think we have the right one’s in office.  We will get it right one of these days.  Today politics appears to be a criminal activity at all levels.

Grade Schools.  I see that PE is changing drastically in grade school.  It appears that competitive sports is being down played, being replaced with activities that has no winners or losers.

 That appears to be the template for our schools overall.  There are never any winners or losers.  I heard it said (Peter Drucker) that he thought the school system in the United States will unravel which it appears now to be doing.  Just read the papers to see the hoops that one has to do to fire incompetent teachers.    

ID Risk Level.  You may surprise yourself.  I received this from a young lady in Illinois.  Find out your test score and see if you have to take some action to protect yourself. 

• I regularly receive pre-approved credit card offers in the mail. (add 1 point)

• I shred all credit card offers I receive in the mail. (deduct 2 points)
• I always shred my credit card statements and other documents with personal identifying information before putting them in the trash. (deduct 2 points)
• I carry my Social Security card in my wallet or purse. (add 4 points)
• I carry my insurance ID card or other ID card containing my Social Security number in my wallet or purse, or in my car. (add 2 points).
• I use my ATM card at non-bank ATMs such as those at convenience stores, airports, or shopping mall kiosks. (add 1 point)
• I shop online and don’t verify that the sites are secure. (add 2 points)
• I use obvious PIN numbers, like birthdates or phone numbers, on my ATM cards. (add 1 point)
• My employer does not keep employee files locked at all times. (add 2 points)
• My Social Security number or Drivers License number is printed on my checks. (add 2 points)
• My Drivers License number is the same as my Social Security number. (add 2 points)
• When people ask for my Social Security number, I provide it. (add 2 points)
• My credit card company sends me convenience checks in the mail. (add 2 points)
• I shred credit card company convenience checks or keep them locked up. (deduct 1 point)
• The last time I ordered a copy of my free credit reports from all three credit reporting bureaus was 2 years ago or longer. (add 2 points)
• I am skeptical of telemarketing phone calls or emails and do not provide personal information or click on links in marketing emails. (deduct 1 point)
• I do not use anti-virus software on my computer. (add 2 points)
• I do not use firewall software (like Zone Alarm or Norton Internet Security) on my computer, even though I use the Internet. (add 2 points)
• I store personal financial information or passwords on my computer. (add 1 point)
• I reconcile my bank statement every month. (deduct 1 point)
• I carefully review my credit card statement every month and investigate any charges I don’t recognize. (deduct 1 point)
• Do I exercise my legal right to receive my free credit report at https://www.annualcreditreport.com
• I store personal information on my computer. (add 1 point)

How Did You Score?

• More than 26 points – Off the Charts! You may already be a victim of identity theft and not even know it.
• 20-26 points — Very High Risk – You’re either unaware of the way identity thieves work or you think it won’t happen to you. You’re identity theft waiting to happen.
• 14-19 points — High Risk – You’re aware of some of the risks of identity theft and have taken a few basic precautions but are wide open to less obvious methods of identity theft. You’ve got some work to do.
• 8-13 points – Medium Risk – You’ve covered the basics pretty well but could tighten up in a few of the less obvious areas. You’re getting there!
• Less than 8 points – Low Risk – You’re well aware of the risks of the various types of identity theft and you take them seriously by taking steps to protect yourself in a wide variety of vulnerable areas. Good work!

If your score is Very High Risk, hire and pay a legal representative, security personnel, CPA, and whomever that will monitor and protect you and your family 24 hours, 7 days a week from being a victim of ID theft or simply contact John Duffner at johnduffner@hotmail.com and ask what is available to give you some means of protection at a reasonable price.

 Kids Names:  Another item that interested me are baby names.  Here is a listing of the top ten boy/girl names based on 2008 statistics:

1. Emma

2. Isabella

3. Emily

4. Madison

5. Ava

6. Olivia

7. Sophia

8. Abigail

9. Elizabeth

10. Chloe

The Top 10 names for baby boys:

1. Jacob

2. Michael

3. Ethan

4. Joshua

5. Daniel

6. Alexander

7. Anthony

8. William

9. Christopher

10. Matthew

 I lost a friend.  He was a shoe maker, very outspoken, but very good hearted.  He and I at times would exchange stories of our experiences with heart surgery since we both were operated on within months of each other.  Or we regaled each other with stories of what we did in the service (he was Army; I the Marines) and what our kids were doing.  When Jess lost his wife a few years ago it took the spring from him but he remained occupied, always opening the shop, and I would stop by to complain about nothing.  He will be missed. 

 Your comments are welcomed.

Much has been written over the last week of mortgage help.  It appears that banks are just starting to get into the mortgage business however it appears that only 1 in 11 will be able to get help.

That means the other 10 people will probably go into foreclosure.

So be ready for another round of foreclosures will be coming to fruition in the next several weeks.

The financial sector is still trying to find its legs.  Business is not creating new jobs at this time but it appears that government jobs are increasing significantly. 

Unemployment is hovering around 11% but surprisingly not many government jobs at any level has been impacted.  The stimulus money that States want appears to be a justification of increasing their payroll base.

There is a lot of BS going on in government with deflective stories being written to turn people’s attention away from our economic problems and creating bigger government. 

Words uttered by any Federal or State representative should put one on guard.

What is being said is to make people feel good; what is being done will make people sorry and at a point they think there isn’t anything they can do.  

An example is the “rainy day set aside” proposal that California will vote on this May.  Sounds good to set something aside.  It makes one think that someone is taking steps to do something right.  But politicians being politicians when they see ”rainy day” funds they will justify taking of these funds for some other cause.  There goes ”rainy day” funds.

So like Social Security which was set up as a set aside fund, later when monies were needed, its money was used, replaced by notes.  I suspect this “rainy day” proposal is of the same vintage.  As stated earlier, politicians say things that sound good; but later is when you really recognize what they really wanted to do.

We can start by removing those in office now and replacing them with new blood that understand and can manage the needs of the Country.  We have too much “good ole boy” goings on throughout the Country.  It is time to change to something better.  As a first step maybe we should start “recalls” now, replacing Federal and State representatives.  That clean house each two years. 

As mentioned last week if you don’t like them remove them.  Recalls is a start.

I found it interesting that the Congress had sessions relating to earth warming.  The interesting part was they would not allow any rebuttal or opposite views to be heard at these sessions.  Meaning:  our minds are made up and this is the way it is going to go.

That will be a healthy tax for America.  Who controls this.  Our friends overseas.  We pay and they make the rules.  Seems only fair???? 

Ventura County

The County real estate is continuing its base building.  Listings continue downward; discounts continue and it appears that the County inventory is neutral will a bias towards becoming a sellers market.

Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura and Oxnard Beaches and the Ojai/Oak View areas are still buyer’s markets.

Simi Valley/Moorpark, Oxnard, Santa Paula and Fillmore appear to be sellers marketswith the Conejo Valley and Camarillo currently being neutral.

Overall there has been a 35% increase in sales in 2009 compared to the same period of 2008.  Areas showing significantly higher sales this year is Oxnard (114% increase); followed by Santa Paula, Fillmore and the Ojai/Oak View area.

The areas lagging 2008 residential sales are Santa Rosa and Conejo Valley.

The County real estate appreciation for the next 12 months will be 8.7% growth; we will witness a 17.9% growth over the next 24 months; and a 25.6% growth over the next 36 months.

Increase in unemployement and lagging job creation can dampened these growth rates slightly but overall it appears these appreciation rates that can be expected. 

Your comments are welcomed.

Surprisingly dispite the down time nothing has changed.  Things may have gotten worse.

Caps.  I loved hearing about this while sick.  Cap CEO pay.  That’s great except it did not go far enough.  I would add to the cap list:

All federal government workers should be capped at $ 75,000 annual salary; State workers should be capped at $ 70,000 per year; and Local government employees caps should be at $ 65,000.  All members of Congress and the President should be capped at $ 80,000 per year including the justices throughout the Federal and State Judiciary.  If I missed any one they should be capped at $ 60,000.

All union executives and private company executives should be capped at $ 100,000 per year.  If we do not like who is in charge they should be immediately replaced. 

(Sideline:  My dad was a local union President for many years.  He lived union.  While he felt the need for unions he also noted that the rank and file were hurt more by union  leadership and their political gyrations and hostile attitudes towards employers.  It was a war.  “This is what we want or we shut you down”.  He also noted that when the rank and file had a strike they never, ever were ahead.  Each strike made them poorer.  End of story.) 

Continuing with who should be capped.  All movie stars, television host and newscasters and baseball/football/basketball players should be capped at $ 100,000 annual salary.  Anybody working in the financial arena including Wall Street should be capped at $ 100,000.

Fisherman should not be capped (I like fishing).

All other workers should be capped at $ 150,000 per year except real estate brokers and agents…..they should make as much as they can…..no cap.  That’s fair and that is my contribution to the cap situation!

Immigration.  While sick I was listening to the many discussions about resolving the illegal immigration problem and a solution was devised to penalize employers monetarily and maybe sentenced them to jail.

I agree with this position but again those in power did not go far enough.  I would add to the list the fining and possibly jailing of activists who push illegals to break the law.  I would also include in the mix the politicians who intercede on behalf of their constituents and force Border and other agencies from doing their job.  These folks too should face a penalty, jail time if required and removal from office.

I recall in the 1960’s and 1970’s when those responsible to protect our borders would be retired, demoted or re-assigned because politicians did not want these people to do their job in the area they represented.  Nothing has changed much.

Why people from South America think they can ignore immigration laws is beyond me.  The Europeans followed the rules to get into this Country.

But we have to give a pass to the folks from the South….Why?  And those from South American countries who are now standing in line waiting to get in the right way, well it appears that you are doing a stupid thing.  Why go through the hassle.  Break the law. 

Come in and in 10 years you will get your citizenship.  That is what has happened over last 20 or more years.  10-15 years from now we will have the same situation and our politicians will find it necessary to legalize ’illegals” once again.

It’s a revolving door.  Maybe we should have an open border from the North Pole/Canada to the very tip of South America.  All of the people in the Americas can move as they want from one area (location) to another and would automatically be a citizen in the area they lived or settled.  We would be called citizens of the Americas. That would solve the problem. 

I think shortly there will be a meeting of the minds and people are going to see that there has been good from the past and this good can be used effectively in the future.  People are going to do it and it will take time but it will be people solving the problem, not politicians.

Oh.  One more thing that was big news and that had to do with taxes.  Heck the cure for this is simple.  Have a flat tax. 

Everyone pays and the federal rate should not exceed 10% of one’s gross wages (including companies gross sales).  States should be limited to 5% of either gross wages or sales.  There should be NO deductions of any kind.  At no time can the Federal/State tax rate exceed 20% combined.  All other taxes for gasoline, sales taxes, and any other tax, fee or whatever it is called is to be eliminated.  OK, that takes care of the tax issue.  If anyone disagrees with this replace them. 

Real estate on the National scale is holding its own especially in the Mid-States. 

Unemployment appears to be going up along both coast lines faster than the Mid-States but job creation is down Nationally.

This will temper the upward movement for real estate for a period however the truth of the matter is that in another year real estate will be stronger and move higher and then watch out.  Politicians will once again interfere with the free market because there will be a division between who has a home and there will be many without.

Ventura County.

The unemployment rate is near 10% in Ventura County.  Job creation is nil.  But the real estate market is putting is a solid base for its pending thrust upward which should start around September/October, 2009.

This basing will be significant for the BIG thrust that one can expect to see starting in 2010.  The high prices witnessed in 2004-2006 will pale to what they will be in 2013-2027.  I suspect that the upper limits of the new up trend will be about 50% or more higher than 2004-2006.

There has been a change to the weekly table.  Eliminated was ”days on the market”, replaced with ”estimated inventory and designation specific areas as being either a buyers/sellers market”.

The formla used to calculate inventory was simply to take current listings and divide this by the number of sales over the last 3 months.  This result was then multiplied by three to get the number of months inventory for a specific area. 

True I could have used 6 months or 12 months sales but using three was closer to current market conditions.  I am sure many will correct me but that is OK, I look forward to the coments.

Happily real estate is starting to get some good press.  As one can see from the table above a number of areas have had significant sales since the beginning of the year. 

Oxnard and Santa Paula have had 100% sales increase.  But these sales were due to deep discounts of property values.  So it should not be surprising to see Santa Paula, Fillmore, Oxnard and parts of Ventura showing up as seller markets.

Santa Rosa Valley, the Beaches (Ventura and Oxnard) and Ojai/Oak View continue to have large inventories BUT these have lessen substantially over the last several months and it is expected that these areas will turn the corner and show up as seller markets. 

Your comments are welcomed.