It appears that the real estate market wants to get legs BUT other economic issues stand in the way.

The table below shows that approximately 75% of Ventura County home sales have occurred in the price range below $ 500,000, with 2955 single family homes selling between $ 200,000 to $ 400,000.

Investors and 1st time home-buyers took advantage of prices and tax credits.

There was a niche market of properties selling between $ 1,000,000 to $ 1,500,000.  This represented approximately 4% of the sales in Ventura County.

The following table shows price trends in the County.  Of significance is apprciation in Ventura County approximated 16% for the 1st 10 months of 2009.  The monthly price increase between September and October, 2009 approximated 7%.  Not bad for a one month period.

It is too early to say that the trend in real estate is up.  Since March, 2009 it has been basically sideways.  The October uptick may suggest that despite the local and national economic woes real estate may do its own thing.

The September, 2009 down tick may have been a hic-cup in the overall trend but it does suggest that one be cautious before reading anything into the market.  It may have been a warning.  

Even with the warning one would expect that with high unemployment; lack of new job creation; new taxes on the horizon both Federal and State; the increase in State tax as a loan for the next several months; lack of consumer confidence…all of these singularly and collectively will temper the real estate uptrend.

BUT as of now it looks like the market wants to get LEGS!

Your comments are welcomed.

Well over the last week the real estate market in Ventura County did an “Abracadabra” and the down trend that had been in place for two months reversed itself and start upward with some conviction I might add.

As can be noted in the table below the market had been laboring over the last two months showing significant downside build up. 

However over the last week this appears to have turned.  True it is only a week but by saying the magic words “abracadabra” things changed and hopefully what is being created is a sustainable  upward trend in the real estate market (at least that is what happens in magic shows).

The following weekly table shows the continuation of lower listings, but sales jumped higher as did prices.  The variance between list price and average sales price increased significantly as well.  The County overall is showing itself to be a seller’s market but there are spots (Santa Rosa Valley; Ventura and Oxnard beaches; and Ojai/Oak View) are buyer markets.

Overall sales comparison to 2008 continue to slide with the area showing a 12% sales growth year to year for the period ending October 3, 2009.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the hic-cup experienced in August and September, 2009 was just that and from here on out the market is upward.

The numbers will tell us in the coming weeks.  Stay tune.

The government in its recent reports suggest that there are a great number of people now being assisted in the mortgage area.  In my travels I haven’t yet come across a person that has been assisted by the government in the varies programs that they presented since March, 2009. 

That being said mortgages are still difficult to get and most of the larger banks are no friend to those seeking mortgage loans.  This will eventually change once the write-offs have been taken and the foreclosures have run their course.  This should take about another 6 months and then maybe sanity will appear in the mortgage world.

Your comments are welcomed.

Listings continue to decrease (1932 last week; 1859 this week); sales however climbed and it is probably due to the paper work being delayed in recording sales therefore the prices which had been going down now appears to have stabilized over the last  week.

The chart below summarizes the last weeks statistical numbers.  However events that truly move the market are headed in the opposite direction.

The County’s high unemployment of 11+% certainly is a driving force impacting the real estate market.  Lack of new jobs creation is another impact source.  Consumer confidence is at a low point.

The media is attempting to make things look good but individual common sense tells the general population something else.

Attempts to detract from the economy are going full bore but when push comes to shove it’s the economy that most people dwell on.  It’s their personal economy that takes priority.

Expected is the hammer to fall…..tax increases.  This has to come about and most are dreading the outcome.  To be sure most middle and upper level pay scales are going to be hit hard.  This in and of itself will not impact the real estate market but it most certainly will take longer for the market to start its upward acceleration.

When the acceleration takes hold watch out.  Prices will sky rocket.  Then one will see that there will be a division in the population….those that own property and those that do not.  The division will cause endless discussions and consternation.

Your comments are welcomed.

Through August, 2009 there has been a significant decrease in home sold that were in the $ 500,000 or less category.  As illustrated in the chart below properties in the $ 200,000 or less sales bracket declined from 309 homes sold in the 2nd quarter, 2009 to 117  homes sold in the third quarter of 2009.

One can see the same for other categories up to around $ 600,000.

Home selling above $ 900,000 or more appear to be hold their own.

What is causing this?  Unemployment and the lack of job creation.  It has been reported that 57% of employable people are out of work.  Now it appears that the public sector (local, regional and overall State) will also be cutting their work forces drastically over the next several months.

The mortgage market is of limited help as stringent conditions are being applied which eliminates many “wanna be” home owners.

Buyers are asking for the moon; sellers are holding fast. 

So expect a stalling of home prices, sales and listing for the next few several weeks maybe upward of two to three months.

Evidence of this happening is noted in the chart below.

Ventura County had been experiencing price increases since February/March, 2009 time frame.  But as illustrated in the chart August noted a significant drop in home prices on a month to month basis.  It is hoped that this is a hiccup for the month only because of unemployment and perhaps the summer doldrums is playing a part in the scenario. 

The weekly chart continues to show decreases in listings; a sideways action in the number of sales with a bias to the downside.  But overall the County is still showing itself to be a seller’s market.

Again job creation (high paying), a decrease in unemployment are the necessary ingredients to propel the market upward.

Political double talk aside job creation and reduction of unemployment in California is taking on a monster stance.  Historically tax decreases helped to right the ship faster.  Today that does not appear to be tack being undertaken …..  all one hears or sees is that taxes have to increase across the board.  This option simply reduces the odds of getting the economy headed upward. 

As Donald Trump has stated on a number of occasions, we have to hand out pink slips to the politicians now in office.  “YOUR FIRED” will set the tone and change the mindset of the people in Sacramento.

Your comments are appreciated.

As shown in the table below there has been a significant drop in recorded sales over the last week, offset with a gain in listings.  The overall Ventura County market still shows as a sellers market but two areas flipped to buyers markets over the last week.  These area are:  Santa Rosa Valley and Ojai/Oak View.

Recorded average sales and listing prices declined accordingly.

The second chart shows a revealing trend.  Over the last two months (June and July, 2009) greater sales were made in homes valued above $ 400,000 or more.

Properties that were listed above $ 1 Million dollars had the greatest sales increase for the 2 month period.

This was interesting because many news outlets have been reporting that homes above $ 1 Million dollars were not selling.  In Ventura County this does not appear to be the case.

The same chart shows that homes in the price range of $ 900,000 up to $ 1,000,000 showed a decrease in sales.  But overall the market for homes above $ 500,000 appeared healthy during June and July, 2009.  It will be interesting to see if this continues for any length of time.

Your comments are welcomed.

The numbers do what numbers are supposed to do….lay out what is happening and it is up to the individual to wade through and make sense of what that happening is.

This week for some reason the numbers are saying one thing but my gut instincts are telling me something else.

The real estate market has been going up and that is GOOD news.  And as expected it is going up in a saw tooth configuration.  BUT it appears that we may be looking at (what the stock market would call) a bears trap.  Prices have been going up but over the last several months, especially the month of July, the price increases witnessed since the beginning of the year appear to be labored.

It may well be a great to do about nothing but one should be on guard for further decreases in real estate prices.  I cannot believe I said that…..after all since November, 2008 I have been stating that the market is going up.  But some doubt is setting in…….again just a feeling.

Contributors to this feeling is the unemployment rate; the lack of new job development; consumer confidence is waning; federal/state/locat taxes and fees have to go up.

• Yes the beige report has come out stating that the market and the economy has hit bottom.
• Yes there have been reports of new building going on throughout the United States.
• Yes it has been reported that home prices are going up (and they are). 

BUT something doe not feel right so investors watch what you buy and where you buy.  Home buyers watch what you buy and where you buy.  Sellers hold fast and if you have to sell, sell because the price you get may be the best for several months.  Sellers if you do not have to sell now, wait.  The market will come to you.

For Ventura County:

Listings are down; sales are flat; year to year sales are up 20% and the County as a whole is a sellers market. 

The beaches are the only place that continue as a buyers market and the inventory for Ventura and Oxnard beach areas is about a 10 month supply.  As reflected in the table below all other areas are either neutral or seller markets.

Summer pattern is in play but come September we shall see if the market does a down turn.  I certainly hope that this is not the case.

The following table has led me to my concerns.  Things look rosy but if one plays with the numbers the rose losses some of its luster.  But it may be a little early to cry wolf.  We shall see.

I had expected the an upside month to month price increase continuation into the month of July, 2009 but as can be seen it was 50% less than June which raise the hairs on the back of my neck.  It may be just an aberration but if this continues into August totals than something is afoot.

Price increases since November, 2008 continue to show a three month positive acceleration of 15%, so this tempers my concern but not entirely.  Another factor which tempers my concern is the monthly % value increase/decrease since January 2008 has turn positive (+7.76%) after being in negative territory for about 18 months.

But look prices have been increasing steadily for the last 5-6 months so it just might be my instincts are out of whack.  Let’s hope so.

Your comments are welcomed

As can be noted in the table below listings have now shown signs of life (more people want to sell); sales continue upward and they are doing so at higher prices (which is GOOD).  With the exception of Santa Rosa Valley all communites are showing higher sales as compared to one year ago.  The beach areas are the only segment now showing up as a “buyer’s” market.  The rest of Ventura County is either a seller or neutral market.

Land and commercial are now in a decline.  Many land owners have elected (in many cases) to simply withdraw their property from the market if they do not get their price.  

Commercial properties are now experiencing what the residential market went through a few months ago.  This should not be surprising since land and commercial historically lag residential by a few months.

The loan industry is still trying to get their act together and while it is painful for many borrowers their is some concrete evidence that the industry wants to get things righted.

Unemployment and the lack of new job creation will hinder any quick price advances in homes.  But despite this problem real estate prices are going up.

New taxes (both federal, state and local) are on the horizon.  I suspect that these new taxes will bein the form of “take away”.  Exemptions will be eliminated; possibly contributions will go by the way side; mortgage interest and real estate taxes will be reduced initially then eliminated completely; motor vehicle registration will be eliminated; and possibly the sales tax.

What are you left with.  Yep……a flat tax.  Slowly but surely most will be taxed on adusted gross earnings at maybe a slightly higher rate.

Child tax credits will remain as will low income tax credits but for sure most everything else will go by the way side.

The impact to real estate!  Minimal.  But it is exacting a toll on many people.  It appears that we are at a tipping point and many people are now planning for additional changes.  They sense that the direction we are going is not the right direction.  People will adjust and take vengeance at election time.  Politicians will not adjust.  They will be out of office and the cycle starts over again with a new face.

Lobbyist have to be controlled.  They are the one’s now setting the agenda.  Politicians just follow.  Main street voters are out of the loop.  That has to change. 

National health care will have a significant impact on real estate.  It is strange that the European countries are getting out of national health care programs and in the United States we want in.  If Europe says yes we say no; if they so no we say yes.  Interesting to say the least.

Normally at this time of year people who want to buy are out in full force looking and planning to move, and if they have kids, registered in their new school.  They want to get over with before school starts.

But the economy has many people concerned about jobs so the norm has changed.

Until unemployment shows signs of decreasing (which it is not); until there are more new jobs being created (which isn’t the case); and the general public show strong confidence in the economy (people are perplexed and are tending to decrease spending); the real estate market will tend to go sideways with a bias to the upside.

Talk of another stimulus package if done correctly could work.  What is a correct solution?

Allow zero income taxes, social security and medicare taxes for approximately 6-9 months and the economy will get legs.

This will get money into the hands of the consumer and small businesses and things will start to correct itself.

However I would suspect that consumers will ploy the increase in their paychecks into savings and business will utilize the funds in more advertising and marketing.

Then there will be the problme of weaning the taxpayer back to paying these taxes after not paying them for 6-9 months.

Also States and Federal government will have significantly less revenue coming in for a substantial period causing further lay offs in the public sector of the economy and further cuts in budgets.

But putting the money into the hands of wage earners and especially small businesses will yield better results than the first stimulus package which went basically to government entities and large banks.  The net result stimulus #1 hasn’t yielded anything.

Humor For The Week:

GETTING OLD (Source: Star Dusters Newsletter, July 2009).

I’ve sure gotten old! I’ve had two bypass surgeries, a hip replacement, new knees, fought prostate cancer and diabetes. I’m half blind, can’t hear anything quieter than a jet engine, take 40 different medications that make me dizzy, winded, and subject to blackouts. Have bouts with dementia. Have poor circulation; hardly feel my hands and feet anymore. Can’t remember if I’m 85 or 92. Have lost all my friends.

But, thank God, I still have my driver’s license.

JUST A FUNNY (Submitted by Peggy Guyer to Lockheed Star Duster)

A Minneapolis couple decided to go to Florida to thaw out during a particularly icy winter. They planned to stay at the same hotel where they spent their honeymoon 20 years earlier.

Because of hectic schedules, it was difficult to coordinate their travel schedules. So, the husband left Minnesota and flew to Florida on Thursday, with his wife flying down the following day.

The husband checked into the hotel.  There was a computer in his room, so he decided to send an e-mail to his wife.

However, he accidentally left out one letter in her e-mail address, and without realizing his error, sent the email.

Meanwhile somewhere in Houston, a widow had just returned home from her husband’s funeral.

He was a minister who was called home to glory following a heart attack. The widow decided to check her e-mail expecting messages from relatives and friends. After reading the first message, she screamed and fainted.

The widow’s son rushed into the room, found his mother on the floor, and saw the computer screen which read:

To:      My Loving Wife

Subject:       I’ve Arrived

Date:       January 13, 2006

I know you’re surprised to hear from me.

They have computers here now and you are allowed to send e-mails to your loved ones. I’ve just arrived and have been checked in.

I see that everything has been prepared for your arrival tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing you then!

Hope your journey is as uneventful as mine was.

P. S. Sure is freaking hot down here.

My Musing For The Week:

A great deal of print and TV discussions focused on taxing the rich re., the universal health program being discussed in Washington.

When we run out of rich people who pays?  And who  determines what rich is?

Oh and I see that Al Gore made a comment this week which was “the Climate bill (now being discussed in Washington) will help bring about “Global Governance”.

It is not cap and trade but global governance.

Which brings me to a note by Thomas Paine in which he stated ” …..is the irresistible nature of truth that all it asks, and all it wants, is the liberty of appearing.”

This was expanded upon by Dr. Wayne Dyer in his book Excuses Begone!, is that truth only wants to show up; it doesn’t wish to overwhelm or rule us.  So let’s allow ” the irresistible nature of truth” to make its appearance right now.

Our politicians would have difficulty with this wouldn’t you say?

Ventura County

Quiet.  That sums up the activity for this week.  Perhaps its because summer is now being felt or perhaps people are hunkering down.

People are nervous.  They want to buy BUT will they have a job?  Companies are continuing to decrease their work force; new jobs are not being created; so it is understandable that consumer confidence is “iffy” at this time.

Ventura County unemployment is continuing to go up and a number of businesses are taking steps to reduce employees because people are not spending and are salting away their money (saving).

This scenerio has to change before Ventura County real estate takes off.

To be sure the market is doing well under the circumstances and will continue to show appreciation, but at a slower rate.

The economy, new jobs and consumer confidence are needed to right the ship.  Oh yes…..less political interference would bode well for everyone….but that isn’t going to occur.

The overall market in Ventura County is a “buyer’s” market.  Home sale prices continue to show signs of increasing but there is a lag in sales (summer duldrums perhaps).

As noted in the table above there has been a 23% increase in sales but this increase rate has been diminishing over the last several weeks.  At one time it had been above 35%.

Much has been said of interest rates….yes they are below 5%.  BUT buyers need to have 20% down and a back end ratio or 41% or less to even start talking to banks about a mortgage.  What is a back end ratio?  This is simply taking all of your fixed monthly obligations (new mortgage, taxes, auto payments, other fixed loans, etc) and dividing your gross monthly into the above total.  If it is 41% or less banks will start talking to you.

The other factor that has disturb the market is low ball appraisals.  This appears to be correcting itself but it continues to undo a number of real estate transactions.

Your comments are welcomed.

We are celebrating our 4th of July and many of us witnessed the sparkles in the night sky to remind us of our Country’s birthday.

As with the Country’s birthday real estate is now showing signs of sparkles as well.

Not with the dazzle of what we saw in the night sky on the 4th.  It is somewhat more mute in the market place but the amber’s are there and when this side-way activity is complete there will a significant acceleration upward in home prices.

Items contributing to this price acceleration will include:

1.  Of course there is the pent up demand that will make itself felt.

2.  Cost faced by sellers to make their single family homes “green”.

On the surface it would seem that sellers will have to eat this added cost.  But if Economics 101 taught us anything eventually these cost will passed through to the buyer’s thereby increasing prices.

How “green” green will be is any-one’s guess but in California one could expect that seismic upgrades may be required; perhaps solar panels and independent electric home grids; dual-pane windows; and who knows what else the Federal and State bodies will include.

What will probably happen is what I mentioned a number of years ago….we will have a two class society…..one owning property and those who do not and cannot because of the cost.

There most certainly will be an outcry for affordable housing but the conditions being applied will go counter to what is intended.

Ventura County.

The sideways action still continues with the County as a whole showing itself to be a seller’s market.

Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are all seller markets.  The Conjo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral.  Buyer markets continue in the Santa Rosa Valley and the Beach communities.

Sales since the beginning of the year total 3,869 single family homes.  This is a 26% increase for a comparable period in 2008.

Prices have been inching upward since November/December, 2008 and it appears that in June, 2009 (see abbreviatedtable below) that the average home sale increased quite a bit.  This trend (see monthly % column) was started about November/December, 2008 and has continued through June.  This trend has to continue for the next few months to create the base required for accelerated prices.

Be aware of hiccups.  There is the 2nd wave of mortgage problems coming onto the market; unemployment continues to be a problem; and new job creation is nil.  But history has shown that the real estate market has plowed through these challenges and showed significant home prices.

When can one see these accelerated prices starting to take effect.  Probably the latter part of 2010, early 2011.  Between now and then there will be some meandering to the upside until 2013 then watch out.

I picture something like the following curve that will come into play.  As you can see prices in 2018-2020 will have double those witnessed in the 2005-2006 time frame.

Who says real estate is not a good investment!

Your comments are welcome.

Ever so slowly the real estate is starting to move upward.

Politics will play a hand which will delay the acceleration of price movement but eventually the market will march to its own music.

This upward movement is not only occurring in  Ventura County but is taking place throughout the United States.

For investors I am still recommending Oklahoma (Oklahoma City and Enid); Texas and I still recommend that one keeps an eye on Michigan.  I will go into more detail for investment properties in my annual review which will be available in July.

As can be noted in the Table below this past week was the first time in many months that listings have increasedin Ventura County.  Previously there was a steady decline.  This may be just an blip of an occurrence but  it stood out.

As noted in this blog over the last several months prices are starting to creep upward.  Nothing  dynamic but the prices are solidifying the base that has been in effect since November, 2008.

There will be some sideways price activity over the next several months but the worse is over.  In fact it has been reported recently that appreciation in Ventura County stands at 5.8% since the beginning of the year.  You will note on the chart above that one should expect an 8.7% increase for 2009.  In 2010 the appreciation will increase to 17.9%.

The two things needed for the real estate market to really explode upward are new job creation and a significant decrease in unemployment (neither of will happen for a few months).  Why?  Taxes and added government cost to employers via health care coverage.

There needs to be another element in play before real estate gets it legs and that is consumer confidence which at this time appears to be getting positive.