Vernon Howl ARCHIVE

I'm fairly certain this is the best thing ever uploaded to the internet: Celebrating the 2-year anniversary of Matt Mulholland's recorder version of "My Heart Will Go On"

2011-11-27T09:15:00.002-05:00

2011-10-28T00:01:00.003-04:00

http://vhowl.blogspot.com

2011-09-14T11:15:00.000-04:00

This is going to be my last post here. This place is dirty. It's like I work and work on the repairs when I should just buy a new house. So that's what I'm going to do. VHOWL.BLOGSPOT.COM is my new website and blog. It's cleaner, got bigger pictures and video, less crap. It was stupid to try to make sense of EVERYTHING I've pooped out in the manic scatterbrain disorganized haze of the last ~3 years of blogging here at vernonhowl.info. I'm only taking the essentials. Just like starting over. Not starting over. Consistency. Not crap. Onward.

I need to do a better job

2011-09-13T11:59:00.001-04:00

Luv Kristen Stewart

2011-09-13T10:42:00.000-04:00

ESPN's John Clayton tweets hilariously inaccurate tweet

2011-09-12T16:49:00.002-04:00

9.12.11: For some very strange reason, ESPN's funny-looking but generally well-liked and informative NFL reporter just wrote the following tweet: "Here's a strange stat. In the 12 Sunday afternoon games, no kicker missed a field goal." I immediately responded letting him know that Washington's Graham Gano missed a field goal. I checked the first few @replies and realized this was as ridiculous and untrue as I thought. There were several missed field goals on Sunday, including ones--in addition to the Redskins--by the Chiefs, Colts, Rams, Titans, Cardinals and perhaps more. For someone whose job it is to literally watch as much football as possible, how was this not immediately know? It took him just under 9 minutes to correct the answer and he replied in the most 'John Clayton way' possible (imo):

John Clayton, national treasure.

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Broncos at Oakland

2011-09-12T15:22:00.001-04:00

UGHDATE: So this one is actually at Denver. Fuck. Let's go with Denver. Fuck.

Etc... A fantasy and reality key, Darren McFadden probably was a little too hyped imo--it's be interesting to see how/if he improves... Is there a Raider WR worth owning? ...Can Orton/Lloyd match their break-out fantasy years of 2010?

★

Remember the movie With Honors? Good one.

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*DISCLAIMER: VERNON HOWL'S NFL PICKS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY - LINES COURTESY OF BODOG.EU*

Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Patriots at Miami

2011-09-12T15:16:00.001-04:00

Remember Reggie Bush coming out of college? Can't miss, next Gale Sayers, savior for a franchise, etc... Then the Saints one it all in spite of his failure to meet expectations. So everyone won, except Reggie Bush, who has lost respect, made (I'm sure) far less money than he expected, and saw big-booty sweetheart marry a ~~professional athlete~~ New Jersey Net. Well now we get to see him be totally underwhelming and average in a different uniform.

Etc... Should be interesting to see if a consistant non-Welker threat emerges from the New England pack (my gut says no, and Ocho, Branch, the TEs, Woodhead, etc., all make for reach plays with possible big payoffs)... The Pats MO has been pretty much the same since ~2007 so you know what you're getting into owning BJGE or any other NE RB. That said, 'The Law Firm' did have a 1,000 yards and can bust out 20+ games at any time.

★

Vernon Howl's NFL Recap: Week 1

2011-09-12T12:43:00.001-04:00

9.12.11: So I was a pretty tepid 7-4-2 yesterday picking games. (Two pushes on Week 1--Jacksonville and Arizona--seems unfair, somehow.) Now I will recap all the games for some reason. MNF picks coming this afternoon. (Note: Home teams in CAPS. Win/Loss notes refer to MY picks--see links. All lines courtesy of Bodog and/or Sportsbook.au, from midday Friday, and are for entertainment purposes only.)

PACKERS 42 (-4.5), Saints 34 - LOSS
(picks column)

I wrote about this game on Friday.

Bengals 27 (+8), BROWNS 17 - WIN
(picks column)

I didn't catch any of this so I'm not sure how the game actually flowed, but the team statistical breakdown was very similar. What does this say? Browns might be a little worse than many thought, and vice versa for the Bengals. Both teams should (continue to) struggle mightily in the AFC North. MY HEADLINE: Cedric Benson with a more-than-workmanlike 25 for 121 and a touchdown--despite jail and a general malaise re his prospects, he continues to be a useful fantasy RB.

Lions 27 (+1), BUCCANEERS 20 - LOSS
(picks column)

An impressive W for the very trendy Lions. Bucs got the ball back a little too late to manufacture a tying-score drive. It still feels like both of these teams will compete for the second wildcard. MY HEADLINE: The Bucs could not run the ball AT ALL (Blount 5 for 15, Graham 6 for 13). The Detroit defensive front is legit, after years and years of being among the very worst.

BIlls 41 (+6), CHIEFS 7 - WIN
(picks column)

Hard to say if this has more to do with Buffalo or the ineptitude/unpreparedness of KC (which lots of people talked about and proved to be true). Fred Jackson got the bulk and if he stays healthy he'll prove to have gone 3-4 rounds too late in most drafts. MY HEADLINE: Is Ryan Fitzpatrick for real? On paper, the Chiefs' secondary looked to be a strong point and he ripped them to shreds (208 yards, 4 TDs, no picks). Does he have real / fantasy value, and if so, could the Bills make a wildcard run?

BEARS 30 (+3), Falcons 12 - WIN
(picks column)

When are people going to stop ignoring the "Everybody is shitting on us" motivational factor? That said, there's no reason for Atlanta to panic. If they don't turn it over, and don't settle for field goals, this game's a lot closer (they probably win). All their offensive weapons put up decent numbers. MY HEADLINE: Heard a lot of praise for Cutler after this was done, but he still took five sacks and threw a pick-6.

Eagles 31 (-5), RAMS 13
(picks column)

There are various angles you can approach this from: Bradford's regression / Rams' injuries, praise for the Eagles' skill guys. And to all the "Vick is the #1 FF pick" people: He ran for a 100 yards, totaled two scores and was still 5th in scoring among Week 1 QBs (in my league) behind Brees, Cam Newton (!?), Ryan Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rogers. And you have to figure most days he's not going to have that much success on the ground. His 43.8% completion percentage has to be (at least) slightly concerning. MY HEADLINE: You can run on Philly. Scrapheap backup Cadillac Williams averaged close to 5 yards a carry.

RAVENS 35 (-1), Steelers 7 - WIN
(picks column)

Clearly the most impressive victory of the day. I know, seven turnovers makes it seem that Pitt gave this one away, but I watched the majority and the Ravens were all-around better. MY HEADLINE: Rashard Mendenhall's weak 12 for 45 could be telling (9/11 karma?). This is an aging Baltimore defense (save Haloti Ngata, who is a beast) that was very porous last season. Too early to make a big deal either way but worth noting.

TEXANS 34 (-9), Colts 7 - WIN
(picks column)

The obvious factor (that tweaked the point spread an insane 8-9 points) turned out to be true: The Colts are completely lost without Peyton Manning. From a FF perspective, the Colts' receivers will still retain some of their value, especially if they're constantly going to be down 2,3,4 touchdowns. MY HEADLINE: The Texans are a running team. Just as I suspected, Houston went very ground-heavy (41 rushes to 24 pass plays) despite missing Foster. Schaub and (of course) Andre Johnson have FF value, but it's probably not as high as is/was generally considered (the fact that there isn't really another Texans' WR worth owning also says a lot).

JAGUARS 16 (-2), Titans 14 - PUSH
(picks column)

This game. Just from gleaning the box score, I have a few thoughts: Luke McCown was a good 'game manager' (17 for 24, no TDS, no picks) for the Jags who were clearly content to run the shit out of the ball (47 attempts to Tennessee's 13). Speaking of the Titans' 13 runs, Chris Johnson shockingly not up to playing speed after missing the entire preseason (9 for 24). MY HEADLINE: It'll take some more time, but Matt Hasselbeck (21 for 34, 261, 2 TDs, 1 INT) showed some potential. With Kenny Britt and CJ (whenever he gets back on track), their offense should be better than average.

CARDINALS 28 (-7), Panthers 21 - PUSH
(picks column)

THE HEADLINE, and rightly so, is Cam Newton. WTF was that? MY HEADLINE: Look closer. Check out the Panthers' RB stats. The Cardinals took the "We are going to let the rookie QB try and beat us" to a whole new level--he almost did.

49ers 33 (-6), Seahawks 16 - LOSS
(picks column)

This was probably the only pick I really regretted, and thought about changing before game-time. I'm pretty sure that Seattle is not a very good football team, but without Sidney Rice and Robert Gallery they are definitely a very very bad one. MY HEADLINE: But the 49ers (read Alex Smith) blow just as hard. They needed two kick return TDS from Ted Ginn Jr. to seal this? Please. They had 12 first downs in this game to the Seahawks' 18. Ugh. Yet another horrible start for the horrible NFC West.

CHARGERS 24 (-9), Vikings 17 - LOSS
(picks column)

I stole this one from a pick 'em perspective. San Diego is vastly superior, but as is typically the case they do everything in their power to lose. MY HEADLINE: Donovan McNabb is done (7 complete passes all game). They couldn't stop the pass either (but chalk that up to Rivers/Chargers' O for now).

REDSKINS 28 (+3), Giants 14 - LOSS
(picks column)

Disgusting. I know it's hard to say this, what with letting Rex Grossman throw for 300 yards, but I thought the Giants' defensive was good. Given all the injuries, they hung in their pretty well. This loss is 100% on the offense and the play-calling. Eli looked like shit. The pass-blocking was terrible. The secondary receivers did not step up. And going away from the run in what was a one-possession score is indefensible. After the pick-6 they ran it just six times with 13 minutes remaining in the 3rd. They had averaged over 5 yards a carry before that. Kevin Gilbride! MY HEADLINE: I'm usually a very optimistic Giants' fan, but yesterday did not feel right. They will be favorites next week against the Rams and I will probably pick them (cuz of Rams' injuries for the most part). But this team screamed 6-10. Oh well.

JETS 27 (-5), Cowboys 24 - LOSS
(picks column)

For the first time in my life I rooted for the Dallas Cowboys last night. Partly because I was depressed about the Giants and didn't give a shit how their division rivals faired, but mostly because I loath this Jets team. They just annoy me to no end. I was working on 3 hours sleep, so I was in and out of consciousness during this game, but it definitely seemed like Dallas was the better team. MY HEADLINE: The Jets really are gonna be a passing team this year (44-16 pass-run ratio). I didn't believe the hype but that is a pretty one-sided game plan. Maybe has as much to do with a lack of faith in Greene / their line's run-blocking abilities, than it does with Sanchez and the receivers being so much better than last year.

Patriots 38 (-8), DOLPHINS 24
(picks column)

Raiders 23 (+3), BRONCOS 20
(picks column)

ATS WEEK 1 STATS

HOME TEAM
Favorites: 4-6-2
Underdogs: 2-6

ROAD TEAM
Favorites: 2-2
Underdogs: 6-4-2

AFC vs. NFC
Favorites: 0-2
Underdogs: 0-0

NFC vs. AFC
Favorites: 0-2
Underdogs: 2-0

OVERALL
Favorites: 6-8-2
Underdogs: 8-6-2

Underdogs winning outright: 6 of 8 (4 on the road)

ATS SEASON STATS

HOME TEAM
Favorites: 4-6-2
Underdogs: 2-6

ROAD TEAM
Favorites: 2-2
Underdogs: 6-4-2

AFC vs. NFC
Favorites: 0-2
Underdogs: 0-0

NFC vs. AFC
Favorites: 0-2
Underdogs: 2-0

OVERALL
Favorites: 6-8-2
Underdogs: 8-6-2

Underdogs winning outright: 6 of 8 (4 on the road)

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Happy 9/11: Enjoy the first disc of my new record '9/11: The Album'

2011-09-11T09:10:00.000-04:00

Special present for you super fans on 9/11's special birthday. This is the first disc of a 2CD set: 9 songs, 66 minutes and 6 seconds long. Full set (!1 more songs) will be finished in a week or two or three.

free downloads

BANDCAMP
MEDIAFIRE
LAST.FM
SOUNDCLOUD
free shipping!
read buyer's guide

All songs by The Vernon Howl Group

CHAPTER 1
9 Tracks - 66:06

Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Cowboys at New York Jets

2011-09-09T23:43:00.001-04:00

How Plax fairs is very interesting from a case study point: our second post-jail offensive weapon. Comparing him directly to Vick doesn't make much sense, since you would figure it would take a QB longer to adjust (to the game, a new system: Vick's first year in Philly). Part of me thinks that he should be able to do what he's always done, which is tower over CBs half is size and catch TD passes.

Everyone pretty much assumes Dez Bryant will have a better year than Miles Austin but it's like the 'experts' can't pull the trigger. He's comically like one or two slots ahead of him (with both guys pretty high up). That's not accurate at all and kind of indicative of why I hate rankings. If they were truly equal they would both be lower on these lists.

Etc... I personally think the Jets WR situation is either a slight downgrade or push compared to 2010. Holmes is the clear #1 but I just can't see how Plax/Mason is so much better than Edwards/Cotchery (it's a wash right?)... Maybe not from a FF perspective, but the Jets will miss Brad Smith... And lastly, I can't get a good read on the Dallas RBs sitch. Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, and then there's a new rookie? Yeah, I think I drafted him wtf.

★

Have a happy/safe 9/11 everyone! Enjoy football/don't die! (PS. WE DID IT! WEEK 1 PICKS!!)

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Vikings at San Diego

2011-09-09T23:24:00.001-04:00

McNabb is bye week fodder and a backup in super deep leagues that's all. And I don't think the receivers have much value aside from Harvin, who is a WR3, possibly WR2.

The Chargers intrigue me because (at least it seems like) they have an unusually high turnover of skill players (save Rivers and Gates). Anyway, they're all sure to be pretty solid plays. Although I feel like this year we start to see a real decline in Antonio Gates, which really began at the end of last season with all his nagging injuries.

★

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Seahawks at San Francisco

2011-09-09T20:02:00.000-04:00

Frank Gore probably went too low. He got a new contract and he's been ultra consistant. Someone name Kendall Hunter is supposedly the second guy there if you're curious about a handcuff.

A friend said to me that he thought Michael Crabtree would "take the leap" this year. Then I told him he had foot surgery in July and his QB is Alex Smith. I'm not sure it would be wise for anyone to think about the FF value of the 49ers' passing game from this point on.

Etc... I can't get too excited about Marshawn Lynch. People were blinded by that ridiculous TD run in the playoffs and forget how lousy he was with Seattle the last few weeks... In fact, the Seahawks are one of a bunch of teams who have no real stars and very little fantasy interest (especially now that Sidney Rice is questionable and, well, Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst are their quarterbacks).

★

"Hip hop stormtrooper"

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Panthers at Arizona

2011-09-09T19:45:00.000-04:00

As horrific as all the AZ quarterbacks were in 2010, Larry Fitzgerald still had 90 catches and 1,100 yards. I'm not sold on Kevin Kolb as a guy who can get them to the playoffs (Bradford and the Rams' D are both better) but he's a marked improvement for fantasy purposes.

I really don't know why Carolina doesn't try to trade Steve Smith, or why no seems to talk about this. You're at the beginning of a massive restructuring phase and he's in the twilight of his career. Why wouldn't you move him for whatever you can (a 3rd rounder, a 4th? I don't know, anything). As bad as the Panthers most likely will be they do have two capable RBs. Teams will be keying on them because they know they don't want to overexpose Newton, but the upside is they'll be getting a shit ton of touches.

Etc... Second wideout on Arizona is interesting. Depth chart lists Early Doucet who's been pretty much undrafted--something to keep an eye on... In other Cardinals FF news, Beanie Wells will have all the time and opportunities to suck all by himself now.

★

Yao Ming + Katy Perry = unconscionably wrong.

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Giants at Washington

2011-09-09T19:25:00.003-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: ...bad news, however, is 'big' news along the lines of "Rex Grossman has won the quarterback battle against John Beck." Yikes. Or: "Our best offensive weapon is Tim Hightower." (Sarcasm)

No, but seriously, let's stop talking about Grossman and Hightower and start getting real. I don't believe the Giants can get back to 10-6 and push for a playoff spot. This has all the earmarks of an 8-8 or 7-9 campaign, and that's the most frustrating season of all. You're sort of in it for most of the year but end up losing three in a row heading into December (brutal stretch: Philly, New Orleans and Green Bay) and don't even get a high draft pick. Football blue balls. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see. They need to go 5-1--4-2 at the very very least--to have a shot, but even if they do that (it isn't that hard to see) I can't and won't say they're good enough to win the East. I think the Eagles are a class above the other three teams in this division (I also see the Cowboys and 'Skins in the 7 to 9 win range), not too mention the rest of the conference has gotten exponentially better over the last five years or so (Falcons, Bucs, Lions, Rams, etc.). But they've owned the Redskins these last few years, so let's take it one week at a time. Lay the points.

Everyone gave Eli a ton of shit for saying he was an elite Top 5 quarterback. (I theorized he might have said it to deflect negative attention away from Osi and other sagas--didn't see anyone else write that and god knows Eli probably isn't that savvy, but still...) It does sound nuts, but if you look at last year's numbers, it isn't that far off-base. He was 5th in yards and 4th in touchdowns. Yeah he led the league in INTS (25) but seven weren't his fault (heard that number via Jaws on ESPN). To put that in perspective, Drew Brees had 22. He probably isn't Top 5, but he's 6th or 7th and he has a Super Bowl and SB MVP. Just saying.

As for the rest of the Giants... I see the running game breaking down very similarly to last year when they totaled 2,000 (1,200 and 800). Everyone says Jacobs looks better but he looks the same to me. Which is to say slightly above average but will have more TDs than Bradshaw.

If there's an FF sleeper on New York, my bet would be Domenik Hixon (especially in return yards leagues). He looks to have won the third wideout job and could be worth a bench spot to fill in when your starters are on byes.

Etc... Not much to say about Washington: Moss will be Moss (a suitable but unsexy WR3)... It appears Hightower--who looked good in preseason--will get the bulk, but who knows. I've been up and down on him, gotta wait and see some real games.

★

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Titans at Jacksonville

2011-09-09T16:54:00.001-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: This line screams, "You have no idea. We have no idea. So let's just nobody bet on this, OK?" So, when in doubt: Home team, less than a field goal... sure why the hell not.

MJD is the 2011 player equivalent of the Chicago Bears. I had a chance to grab him at 7, passed in favor of Michael Turner and he dropped to 18. WTF? He had 1,650 total yards, seven TDs, only two fumbles (in 14 games). Is it injury concern? Are people just down on Jacksonville as a whole that they're taking it out on him? I really don't get know how this groupthink got started (let's blame TMR) but it will be interesting to see if it was warranted or not.

And Jesus Christ the Titans are a mess too. I'm just gonna refrain from writing anymore about these squads (from a FF perspective) until after we've seen them play.

★

Almost 100,000 views.

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Bengals at Cleveland

2011-09-09T16:29:00.002-04:00

Cedric Benson has had an odd career. From total bust to redemption with the Bengals of all places. He's really a throwback to the workhorse backs whose numbers are OK but definitely do not jump out at you (1,100 yards, but an avg of 3.5 and eight total scores). In the 80s through the mid-90s every team had (at least) a Cedric Benson. (That Cincinnati has had no real success with this approach is telling.)

Is there anyone else worth owning on the Bengals? One player? AJ Green? Anyone?

Etc... Peyton Hillis has probably been undersold (although he went more where I thought he would/should in my draft). The strength of this team is their young offensive line... I don't think Colt McCoy is worthy of owning unless you need a spot start, same goes for his WRs in most leagues (Greg Little has been the popular/trendy name to drop there).

★

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Eagles at St. Louis

2011-09-09T16:00:00.000-04:00

It's truly unbelievable news that Steve Smith might actually play in this game (he's been practicing and listed as probable). Holy fuck did the Giants screw that up. (But more on this--and 'my' G-Men, in general--when I get to that game.) I think he has a chance to be their #2 over Maclin, especially with the illness / time missed for him. Let's not forget how good he was before he got injured--possible steal of the draft.

I've made my thoughts on Vick clear so I won't elaborate unnecessarily. My main points are A) I don't see him throwing only 6 INTs and, B) his ability to play more than 14 games is a serious question mark. Regardless of how good they were/are, how many guys would you draft at ANY position if you knew they were gonna give you ZERO 4-8 times a season?

Etc... Simms-Walker: very interesting, probably went too low. How does it shake out between him, Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola and others?... Is the year when Steven Jackson finally has a non-injury related slowdown? ...Can Ronnie Brown become the TD vulture that I need him to be for my weakass-at-RB team?

★

A picture of Demi Moore topless in a bathroom by Demi Moore (topless in a bathroom):

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Just wrote a pretty hilarious comment at the New York Giants blog of which I am part of 'commenting community' now

2011-09-09T15:37:00.001-04:00

Check it out here. Pulitzer people, you know where to find me.

Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Colts at Houston

2011-09-09T14:56:00.000-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: Damn these write-ups are time-consuming. I meant to do about half yesterday but I caught up dealing with my bank who put a hold on my account when I tried to deposit money into Sportsbook. Was on the phone with someone from Wells Fargo's fraud division. Very sketchy. They don't assume I'm doing anything wrong, but it still made for an awkward conversation. Dude was like, "So were you making travel plans or something?" And I'm like, "Yeah or something, I just need you NOT to put the kabosh on my shit when I try to make international transactions OK? Just, like, let me be." He was like OK and that was that. Really not that interesting, I guess.

Obviously the biggest question is what kind of hit do all the Colts' skill players take without Manning. Of course Peyton's head basically falls off the year I actually get Dallas Clark with good value. We'll see.

I was a pretty big Arian Foster detractor. I did not believe the hype. It's not that I didn't think he'd have a good year, just never saw him in the Top 4 or 5. Now he's battling this injury, so we wait and see. How his backups (Tate and Ward) perform (if and when they're needed) will help us accurately gage Foster's FF value over the next couple seasons (is he a product of a good system/line, or a true talent?).

Etc... Feels like we've been waiting the duration of the Schaub/Johnson era for a legit #2 to emerge. Jones, Walter, other dudes?, can't seem to get past that floundering "taking up space on your bench" stage... Have to leave the door open to the possibility that the Colts could actually have some above average value at RB. If they can adjust to a more traditional system--which they'll have to do if they want to have a shot with Collins--someone should have weekly flex potential at the least. Problem is, their line just has not been built to runblock.

★

MP3: Chrome Sparks - "Doubt, No"

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Bills at Kansas City

2011-09-09T14:30:00.001-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: Fun Fact: The Bills and Chiefs have two of my favorite logos in the NFL. They are definitely both in my Top 10 Favorite NFL logos.

A playoff team last season, KC is getting a lot of crap this year too, Bears fans. You are not alone. Apparently they looked real shitty on offense in preseason? That's what people who watch preseason Kansas City Chiefs football have been saying. Dwayne Bowe probably had a sneakily overrated season in 2010. Well, not overrated--that's the wrong word. I'm just saying that 15 TDs is misleading for anyone on what could very well be a middling team.

In general, I feel the Bills are a tad sleeperish. And by that I mean they have an outside shot of going 7-9. Their O is not half bad. Biggest questions: Will there be another receiver worth owning besides Johnson? Jackson vs. Spiller: How does that play out? (I like Jackson, if you have him you more than likely got him at great value.)

Etc... Unrelated to anything: I appreciate a Steve who wants to be addressed as Stevie... Jamal Charles is a beast and--barring injury--probably as close to a sure thing in FF as there was/will be this year (carrying a 6.0 avg into his prime and should get more TDs this year, one would think)... What's behind Bowe? Is Steve Breaston worth a bench spot? (Same question on the other side: Roscoe Parrish, Brad Smith?)... I feel like Roscoe Parrish has been in the league for 15 years and been the absolute definition of average in every one of them.

★

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Falcons at Chicago

2011-09-09T12:39:00.001-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: Yeah I've picked all home teams so far. So what who cares? It seems as if, every season, there is that one successful team from the year prior that the media just loves to shit on. But I can't recall a team that played in the NFC Championship game getting this much crap. Granted I don't feel they're any better than 8-8 but still. I blame all of this on Lovie Smith's neutral facial expressions. Because HE doesn't know how to feel WE don't know how to feel.

It must suck owning Jay Cutler. He's the QB you have when you waited just a tiny bit too long. He's like the overcooked meat of fantasy quarterbacks.

Michael Turner has led the league in carries two of the last three seasons (in 2009 he was injured and only played in 11 games). Some backs have the ability to grind out huge workloads over many seasons (Stephen Jackson) but most do not. It'll be interesting to see how (and how much) Jason Snelling (if he can stay healthy) will be incorporated to lessen the load.

Etc... The Bears wide receivers? Own any? Good luck with that... A big debate I've had with friends: Does Julio Jones help/hurt Roddy White, and if the latter, how valuable is he on his own? (I'm in the "help" category, but I feel Jones has some decent WR3 value).

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Jimmy Fallon & Eddie Vedder sing "Balls in Your Mouth," a BP Oil Spill protest song.

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Lions at Tampa Bay

2011-09-09T12:03:00.001-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: Everyone seems to love the Lions and with good reason: They are young and talented, and if Stafford stays healthy they most certainly will compete for a wildcard. But you do realize the Bucs are also young and talented, AND they posted a 10-6 record last season, right? (Their schedule this year: very favorable.) It's definitely an intriguing matchup that is not going to get the attention it deserves. DirecTV people take note and watch the shit out of this game, OK?

I feel like LeGarrette Blount has been criminally underrated by fantasy experts, almost by default. There are issues that kind of blind you to his potential: He looked great (but the sample size was small). He's a 'live wire' who once punched a helmetless dude in college (but he hasn't had any real issues in the pros). He plays in Tampa (he plays in Tampa). The Bucs' second back (other than Earnest Graham who appears to be back in the traditional FB role) is the universally undrafted Kregg Lumpkin. That's Kregg with a K. And yet Blount was consistently picked behind guys in clear split back situations. Odd.

I hate that Mike Williams is named Mike Williams. The NFL needs to put a ban on any more Mike Williams joining the league. I honestly believe he is the only fantasy player who has been undervalued strictly because of his name. He had nearly 1,000 yards and 11 TDs last season.

Etc... The other Tampa wideouts: Arrelious Benn was a name I heard a lot, but when you're doing a draft and you see Arrelious Benn on the board there is just a part of your brain that won't let you pick him... The Lions threw it more than anyone besides Indy last season? Yes, apparently. TMR noted that statistic... I like Brandon Pettigrew a lot, feel like he has a shot at creeping into the Top 5 fantasy TEs... The Detroit RB situation is very interesting, with Javid Best notching career concussion #100 in the preseason. I guess Jerome Harrison--he of the 286-yard game fame*--is the handcuff but they also have Maurice Morris, who is the perfect fantasy guy for screwing up other players while not having enough value to start on his own.

*Fun Fact: I had Harrison on my bench that day.

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Vernon Howl's NFL Picks & Fantasy Watch - Week 1: Steelers at Baltimore

2011-09-09T11:16:00.000-04:00

BONUS FEATURES: Alright sure I'll talk a little about this game. The line very slowly creeped from 2.5 to 1.5 and I wouldn't be shocked if it gets closer to zero by kickoff. People love the Steelers here and to be honest I'm not sure why. Here are the scores of the regular season games these two teams have played the past two years: 20-17, 20-23 (2009), 17-14, 10-13 (2010). In '09 the home teams took the split, and in '10: the road dogs. But in both cases, the Ravens won the first contest by a field goal. All of this means very little except that Baltimore is guaranteed to win by a score of 27-24. No but seriously, how can you not pick the home team giving less than a field goal in this series?

There's not a whole lot of intrigue from a fantasy perspective here. We know basically what Flacco and Ben are, and these are two of a dwindling amount of teams who actually have a lead (bulk +goal line) star RB. But two things strike me as interesting... How do the secondary receivers shake out for the Ravens behind Boldin? (Is Lee Evans worth owning?) And, for the Steelers, same question but with a greater focus on their #1: Is Mike Wallace the star, a legit WR1/2 fantasy play? (If so, how do we rank Sanders, Brown and Old Man Ward behind him?)

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Vernon Howl's NFL Recap: Week 1

2011-09-09T10:42:00.002-04:00

9.9.11: Wow! So how how bout that first NFL game? That's a nice first game! I was wrong with my pick but that's OK. The Saints came within a few feet of the cover, whatchagonnado. Here are some random thoughts.

Packers 42, Saints 34

The Colston fumble. If he hangs on and they march down the field... 7-7, that's a whole different game.

The bad tackling/defense. To be expected at the onset of every season, sure, but in the aftermath of the lockout: much much more. U/O bettors, I'm looking t you.

Starks vs. Grant. Hard to say who has more value, but there is definitely value to be had. The Pack is going to put up 30-40 points against a lot of teams and they won't have to keep pace with the likes of New Orleans. That means a lot of second half running. I think both guys have flex value as is, and if one or the other gets hurt: serious RB1 or RB2 consideration.

Brees and Rodgers are pretty good. I know Vick has the potential to run for 800-900 yards and he was the consensus #1 FF QB this season (the #1 overall people are a joke, however)--I get it. But staying healthy and actually doing it is something else. I'd much rather have 12-14 outings in the statistical range of last night. Seems like the more logical decision, right?

Darren Freaking Sproles. OMG this guy. His best moment was clearly the flop he took in the endzone drawing the pass interference flag to set up the last play. Savvy. I don't think we saw enough of the backs last night to properly gage their fantasy value on this side either, but if you're in a return yards league, Sproles is the Saints RB to own duh. I thought Thomas looked better Ingram (6.2 avg to 3.1 avg in limited work), but Ingram got the 'start' and the bulk of the carries (13 to Thomas' 5, significant) and Ingram got the...

What the hell was that playcall on the un-timed down? Oh wait, fist off: Un-timed down! Un-timed down with a legit chance to tie in the first game of the season, that was awesome! But give me a break. How do you send a rookie (who hadn't touched the ball in the 4th quarter) out there and run him square into the gut of BJ Raji? It's easy/fruitless to second-guess, but that ball has to be in Drew Brees' hands.

Anyway, great first game. I know the defense was sloppy but you really could not ask for anything more. Keep it tuned to this blog for NFL Picks galore all day. Football's back, baby! Listen to this song and imagine they are singing "football" instead of "New York" (whoops, sorry New York [9/11]).

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