When we look at what Cain has produced over the previous 3 seasons, we see why he’s blossomed into an ace. From 2010-2012 Cain’s ERA was 2.94 and he had a WHIP of 1.069 in 98 starts and 664.1 innings. I’d say that’s a pretty solid track record. Over that time period his strikeout percentage was 20.5% and his walk percentage was 6.5%. Compare that to 2013 where Cain has managed to whiff 21.5% and walk 7.9%. The K% is ostensibly the same, and the walk rate has crept up a bit. If we look at per nine numbers he’s walking 3.0 per 9 which is just about at his career rate of 3.1. So what’s been Cain’s problem? Home runs.

He’s given up 13 home runs in 2013. That’s a home run to 3.6% of the batters he’s faced and 1.3 HR/9 compared to 0.7 HR/9 from 2010-2012. Cain has surrendered 3 home runs in the same game three times this season, against the Brewers on April 18, the Diamondbacks on April 29 and the Rockies on May 16. His career home run percentage is 2.1% and that’s including the 3.6% of batters this season. So he’s giving up way too many homers. For his career about 7.1% of the fly balls he gives up go out of the yard. This season, nearly twice that (13.1%). His strand rate is down as well, but that makes sense with the homers that he’s giving up.

Matt Cain has had 4 terrible performances that skew his numbers and make it look like he’s lost everything that made him an ace. When you remove those 4 starts, his ERA is 2.32, and his WHIP is 1.00. Now that’s what I’m talking about. His strikeout percentage in his non-blowup starts is 21.84% which is a tick above the K% over the past 3 seasons. Unfortunately, we can’t just look for games where he gives up the long ball as his problem starts. On June 1, he gave up 7 earned runs on 9 hits and none of them were homers.

Eno Sarris recently wrote a great piece “Why is Matt Cain Struggling” over at FanGraphs:

Matt Cain’s velocity, pitching mix and swinging strike, walk, strikeout and ground-ball rates are all virtually identical to his career rates, so it’s tempting to say that nothing is different. And yet, Matt Cain is making mistakes. Since he’s always around the zone, they are hittable mistakes. And now that they are closer to the heart of the zone, they are being hit harder than they’ve ever been hit.

So what does that mean for fantasy owners? Coming into the season he was a top 10 starting pitcher so you paid a lot to get Cain. That investment hasn’t paid off exactly. So what can you do?

You can hold onto him and hope he regains his form on a consistent basis and you can trust him as the anchor of your pitching staff. Or, you can wait for him to string a couple good starts together and use those starts as a sales tool to go out and get some other ace, or more likely near ace level pitcher in return. It would be best to target guys who have struggled with injuries (Johnny Cueto, Brandon Beachy, Jered Weaver) or guys who could come on strong the rest of the season (David Price, Cole Hamels, Gerrit Cole).

His career slash line is .235/.330/.473 and while as recently as May 9th his OPS was 1.013, his year to date slash line is .229/.309/.442. The slump that he’s been in since the middle of May has decimated his numbers and now he’s fallen back on pace to approach 200 strikeouts this season. If we draw the arbitrary endpoint of May 15th, he was on pace to strikeout about 160 times with an estimated slash line of .271/.362/.581 with around 45 HR, 140 RBI and 95 R. No question we’d all prefer the Mark Reynolds of April and the first half of May. But what we’ll get the rest of the way is closer to the post May 15th player.

I was fortunate to pick him up in my shallow home league on April 8th, and have enjoyed most of the stats that he’s provided. But for the past month he’s been dragging down my team. Feel free to laugh and point at the dope who got suckered in by Mark Reynolds hitting and getting on base. That’s me… I’ll own it. I should have tried to deal him at the beginning of May. I didn’t. I waited, trying to squeeze every last HR and RBI out of him. And now. I’m stuck with him, as I assume some of you are. I don’t feel great about cutting him and losing some serious pop out of my lineup. But I can’t in good conscience keep trotting him and his 0/4 nights out while my team languishes.

It’s decision time. Who can I find to replace him? I have my eye on a few third basemen who aren’t widely owned and can give me some much needed counting numbers (even though they won’t ever come close to replacing his power). The number in parenthesis is his ownership in ESPN standard leagues.

• Nolan Arenado (26.4)
  Arenado got the call up at the end of Apri. While he struggled a bit at first he’s brought his slash line up to .268/.307/.441 and plays in a very potent lineup.
• Anthony Rendon (21.9)
  Another rookie. After his brief spell with the club in late April/early May, he was sent down. He was recalled on June 5 and has been raking every since. He’s slashing .444/.474/.694 in 9 games since being called up.
• Brett Lawrie (35.9)
  If you can afford to stash him on your DL or have a deep enough bench, he’s a good bet to return late June/early July and will slot right back into the Blue Jays lineup.

1. Yu Darvish
   Darvish went 7 innings against Toronto, giving up 1 earned run, 2 walks and 3 hits. In the game, he struck out 9 Blue Jays. Darvish’s last 2 starts have been against the Blue Jays, and he’s handled them very well, holding them to a .495 OPS, but his team ended up losing both games. This obviously wasn’t because Darvish didn’t deliver. His ERA over those 2 games was 1.93 and his K% was 29%. He’s doing what he needs to do. He hasn’t won a game since May 16th, but that just further underscores what we already know, Wins are not a great indicator of pitching performance.
2. Adam Wainwright
   Wainwright has rattled off 5 consecutive wins in which he’s dominated opposing batters. His ERA over that stretch is 1.64 and his OPS against is .561. I’m not a huge fan of relying too much on BABIP as an indicator of luck, but over this stretch of dominance, Wainwright’s BABIP has been .324, so it appears that batters are having a few more balls drop in than normal. His career BABIP is .295. Wainwright looks like he’s on his way to a Cy Young caliber season. He finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2009 and 2nd in 2010. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Wainwright has already added 4.1 WAR for the Cardinals.
3. Clayton Kershaw
   Similar to Darvish, Kershaw has pitched fairly well of late, but his team’s offense hasn’t supported him well enough to put him in the win column. Over his last 5 starts he has a 2.75 ERA  and .595 OPS against. His K% was 19.6% in those 5 games which is below his 24.6% season rate.
4. Justin Verlander
   He broke the streak of 3+ earned runs in his most recent start against the Royals. He went 7 innings and didn’t give up any runs, while striking out 8. Before he started his 3+ earned run stretch his ERA was 1.55, the 6 games with 3+ earned runs brought it up to 3.71 and his latest out brought it down to 3.41. I think the rest of the way Verlander will probably be in the 2.75 ERA range and he’ll continue to get you a ton of Ks.
5. Felix Hernandez
   Felix locked horns with David Phelps of the Yankees in his last start. Neither got the decision, but Felix pitched well. He went 7 innings, gave up 1 earned run and struck out 7. Hernandez’s 26.7% strikeout percentage puts him #9 in MLB. When you pair that with a 5.0% walk percentage, you see why Felix is so effective.
6. Cliff Lee
   Lee bolstered his season record to 8-2 with a win over Minnesota on Thursday. He pitched 7 innings only giving up 3 hits for 2 earned runs. He did leave the start with a blister on his hand, but that’s not expected to be a lingering problem. Lee hasn’t lost in his last 8 starts. Next up for Lee is the Nationals on Tuesday.
7. Max Scherzer
   Scherzer went 7 innings and picked up his 9 win of the season against Kansas City. He only gave up 3 hits and 2 earned runs. In his past 5 games he’s given up an average of 3 hits a ballgame. Over that same stretch he’s averaging about 7 innings per start. He’s having a great season, his season ERA is 3.19 and he’s striking guys out at a 31.% clip.
8. Jordan Zimmermann
   Zimmermann and Adam Wainwright are the only pitchers in the majors this year with 3 complete games. Zimmermann’s averaged a little over 7 innings per start this season. He’s going deep into games and he’s giving up a career low 6.8 H/9. When we look at his other per 9 stats we see that he has a career low in HR/9 (0.6) and BB/9 (1.2) and career best 4.69 SO/BB ratio.
9. Hisashi Iwakuma
   Kuma continues his dominance. He’s 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 14 starts. In his last start against the Astros, he gave up 1 unearned run on 4 hits and struck out 8. His walk percentage is 3.9% which puts in him in the plus plus range. His next start is against division rival Oakland on Sunday.
10. Mike Minor
    Minor hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in a start since May 3, that’s 7 starts. He owns a 2.44 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His latest start was a 6 inning effort against the Dodgers where he walked 3 and struck out sixth en route to his 8th victory. The Giants are next up for the precocious lefty.
11. Shelby Miller
    I’m a big fan of Miller. I wrote profiled him in our series about rookie pitchers. His most recent start against the Mets was his worst of the season. He gave up 4 earned runs, 2 solo homers, but did strike out 10 batters. He gave up 2 HRs in his April 28 start against the Pirates, but other than that has been fairly clean. His HR/9 rate is 0.66 which isn’t elite, but does put him at 23rd in baseball on the season.
12. Matt Harvey
    Not much you can do when you throw 7 innings only giving up 1 run on 5 hits and take the loss. He and the Mets ran into the best pitcher in the National League, Adam Wainwright, and Harvey did his best to go toe to toe with him, but Wainwright sparkled just a bit more. Harvey has pitched well even if his record hasn’t showed it. Since his blistering first 4 games of the season, Harvey has made 10 starts and posted a 2.51 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. Those sterling stats have resulted in a 1-1 record. In those 10 starts the Mets are 4-6, obviously not because of Harvey’s pitching. I wonder what affect the promotion of top prospect Zach Wheeler will have on Harvey’s performance.
13. Chris Sale
    Sale got knocked around in his last start against Oakland. He gave up 4 runs over 7.1 innings. Interesting to note that his previous start was also against Oakland, so I wonder if the A’s were able to lock in on Sale and see his pitches better. Either way, it was just his 3rd start of the season where he gave up more than 2 runs.
14. Anibal Sanchez
    Sanchez is having a great season. His 31.2% strikeout percentage is 2nd best in the league, behind only Yu Darvish. One secret to Sanchez’s success is his incredibly low 3.5 HR/9. He’s 6th in the league for home runs per 9.
15. Clay Buchholz
    On a similar note, Bucholz has only given up more than 2 earned runs once and that was when he gave up 4 earned runs against the Twins on May 6. His 1.71 ERA leads all of baseball. I would expect that his WHIP would be elite as well, but he’s walking 8.9% of the batters he faces. Granted, that’s not terrible, but it does move him down a bit in the rankings.
16. Hiroki Kuroda
    Kuroda went 8 innings against Oakland in his last start. He didn’t factor in the decision in this game. It was the marathon 18 inning affair. He gave up 2 earned runs and struck out 3. It wasn’t a dominating performance, but it was was pretty signature Kuroda. Throw strikes (61%) and induce a lot of weak contact.
17. Madison Bumgarner
    Bumgarner continues to give some glimpses of hope amidst his shakiness. In his last start against Arizona, he pitched 5 innings, surrendering 3 earned runs. He struck out 4 and picked up his 5th win of the season. Next up for Bumgarner is the Braves, who he beat on May 11, when he struck out 11 over 7 innings of work.
18. Zack Greinke
    Since Greinke came back from his separated shoulder on May 15th, he’s gone 2-1 wiht a 4.41 ERA. It looks like it took him a little bit to find his rhythm again. His first start back he went 5.1 innings and only gave up 1 earned run on an Adam LaRoche solo homer. After that game against the Nationals, he got off track. In his next 3 starts, he had a 8.78 ERA and opposing batters were hitting .444 against him. In his last 2 starts, it looks like he’s righted the ship. He went 7 innings in both starts and only gave up 2 runs over the 14 innings. When he got plunked in his last start against Arizona, that set off a bench clearing brawl. Greinke didn’t dislocate anything so he’ll be fine moving forward.
19. Matt Moore
    Moore has flamed out in spectacular fashion. In his last 2 starts his ERA is a whooping 18.00 and his WHIP is 3.71. He was facing some tough lineups, in Detroit and Baltimore, but those performances were really bad. In his 2 inning start against the Tigers, he walked 6 batters. He reeled that in against the Orioles, but still gave up 1 walk. Command and control are still going to be the things that matter for Moore.
20. James Shields
    Shields is having a very good season and his consistency and durability will serve him well as the ace of the Royals staff. Over the last 9 games, he’s given up more than 2 earned runs only once ( 6 earned runs against the Cardinals on May 27). His ERA sits at 2.79 and his WHIP is 1.11. Next up for Shields and the Royals are the Indians on Monday.

Three young starters who can bring you varying levels of fantasy value.

1. Rick Porcello
   Porcello gets a lot of shit for being a bust, or underperforming. The guy is 24 years old and already has 131 major league starts under his belt. Over his last 8 games, he’s given up more than 3 earned runs in just one game (5 against the Twins on May 23). His strikeout percentage over that 8 game stretch is 26% and his ERA is a respectable 3.24 (especially considering the 5 earned runs in 5 innings against the Twins). We know he has a super strong offense behind him. I like Porcello the rest of the way. I’m sure he’ll throw in some rough performances, but I think if you start him in favorable matchups, he will deliver good results.
2. Jordan Lyles
   22 year old Jordan Lyles has made 49 career starts for the Astros, his first when he was 20 years old in 2011. Lyles major league record is patchy at best (10-21 with a 4.89 ERA), but as I look at his numbers this season, I like what I see. He’s not an elite starting pitcher at this point (few are at age 22), but he can give you quality innings and he’s probably available in your league. He has a 18.% strikeout percentage and 7.2% walk percentage. Those numbers aren’t great, and neither is his 1.32 WHIP, but if you look at his game log, you can see that he’s improving. His last outing against the Mariners, he went 7 strong innings. He gave up 3 hits and 2 walks and kept the Mariners off the scoreboard (insert Mariners offense joke here). Oh yeah… he also struck out 10.
3. Zack Wheeler
   Many talent evaluators think that Wheeler has a higher ceiling than Matt Harvey. I’m not sure about that, Harvey has looked pretty damn good to me. Just tells me that Wheeler is a special talent as well. And he’s a strikeout machine. He has a 25.3% strikeout percentage in the minors. That will probably dip a bit as he rolls into big league ball parks, but his ability to miss bats is definitely there. If he’s available in your league get him now. He’ll make his first start next Tuesday against the Braves.

The highlight of his season, so far, is his complete game 1 hitter against Colorado on May 10. In that game he gave up a leadoff hit to Eric Young Jr. and after that, sent down 27 straight Rockies, striking out 13 on the way. Contrast that with Miller’s most recent start on Wednesday against the Mets where he gave up a career high 4 earned runs over 6 innings. He did strikeout 10 in the loss. Hard to feel bad about 4 earned runs being the most he’s ever given up.

For the year, Miller is averaging 6.1 innings and about 103 pitches per start. There has been some talk about whether or not the Cardinals are going to implement any sort of innings limit for Miller. He logged about 150 innings last year, and that was the most of his career. He’s a big kid with a mature body, but I would imagine that St. Louis is going to be fairly conservative with the workload of their young pitchers. They’ve had some injuries in their rotation which has forced them into calling up fellow rookie Michael Wacha. If I had to guess, Miller will make 15 more starts this season and end up logging somewhere between 175-185 innings.

If you’re in a head to head redraft league and you have Miller on your team, you may want to start thinking about when you want to deal him to bolster your team in some other area. If you’re in any sort of keeper or dynasty league Miller looks like a good bet to provide good value for your team for years to come. For roto players in a redraft league it isn’t quite the same concern, but if you can deal him for some other top 15 pitcher that will end up making more starts the remainder of the season, that would be a smart move.

Tier 1

Craig Kimbrel, ATL
2013: 1 W, 18 SV, 3 BS, 34 K, 1.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Aroldis Chapman, CIN
2013: 3 W, 17 SV, 2 BS, 50 K, 2.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

↑Jason Grilli, PIT
2013: 0 W, 23 SV, 0 BS, 47 K, 0.94 ERA, 0.73 WHIP

Mariano Rivera, NYY
2013: 0 W, 23 SV, 1 BS, 23 K, 1.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Joe Nathan, TEX
2013: 1 W, 20 SV, 1 BS, 26 K, 1.71 ERA, 0.80 WHIP

I didn’t think it was possible, but a third No. 1 closer has emerged alongside Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, and one can easily argue that’s he’s the best of the bunch. I’m talking, of course, about the Pirates’ Jason Grilli, who, according to FanGraphs WAR, is the most valuable reliever in baseball. Grilli trails only Chapman with a 14.76 K/9 rate (47 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings), and he leads the majors with 23 saves in 23 chances. It’s not totally surprising that Grilli has been so dominant; just last year, the Pittsburgh veteran put together his best season ever with 32 holds, which was good for the fourth most in the league. There should be no worries of a letdown or “hitting of the proverbial wall,” as Grilli was used sparingly across 58 2/3 innings last season. Grilli could soon take top billing ahead of Kimbrel and Chapman. He already looks like the bargain buy of drafts. Mariano Rivera is tied with Grilli with 23 saves (one blown save), but the big difference between the two, obviously, are the strikeout numbers. With an 8.51 K/9 rate, Rivera is lowest on the totem pole in Tier 1, but he’s still putting up numbers comparable to the past three years. Joe Nathan isn’t far behind Rivera, but Rivera’s elite control – four walks in 24 1/3 innings – keeps him ahead just barely.

Tier 2

Sergio Romo, SF
2013: 3 W, 16 SV, 2 BS, 26 K, 2.52 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Addison Reed, CHW
2013: 2 W, 19 SV, 2 BS, 36 K, 3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

↑Edward Mujica, STL
2013: 0 W, 18 SV, 0 BS, 26 K, 1.57 ERA, 0.59 WHIP

Jonathan Papelbon, PHI
2013: 0 W, 11 SV, 0 BS, 20 K, 1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP

Rafael Soriano, WAS
2013: 1 W, 16 SV, 3 BS, 21 K, 2.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Nothing major changes in Tier 2, but Addison Reed could soon find himself knocked down a few spots if his recent struggles are indicative of a larger problem. Fortunately for Reed owners, I don’t think they are. After blowing a save in spectacular fashion a week ago – giving up five runs in one inning against Seattle, including a Kyle Seager game-tying grand slam – Reed blew his second save in as many weeks on Tuesday night. This time, it was a two-out home run to Jose Bautista that did in Chicago’s closer. Reed was used in the three games prior, so fatigue might have been a factor. Stick with Reed. He’ll be fine. Sergio Romo is close to cracking Tier 1, as his 8.67 K/BB rate is fourth best in the league among relievers and second best among pure closers behind Edward Mujica, who sports a ridiculous 26.00 K/BB (!). Mujica moves ahead of Jonathan Papelbon because the save chances are much more plentiful in St. Louis than in Philadelphia, plus his 26:1 K:BB ratio is pretty remarkable for a first-time closer. People keep waiting for Mujica to screw up and Trevor Rosenthal to take over, but that’s not happening any time soon. Papelbon, in my opinion, is likely to be moved at the deadline. His value is trending down. Rafael Soriano has quietly turned around his mid-May crisis with six straight scoreless outings, going a perfect 4-for-4 in save chances with six strikeouts and zero walks. As I mentioned last week, a declining velocity, swinging strike rate and strikeout rate isn’t usually a recipe for success, especially for closers, and I wonder if last year’s heavy workload in New York will ultimately unseat the Nationals’ closer. That’s all pure speculation at this point. Opposing batters are hitting .250 against Soriano, compared to .217 last year.

Tier 3

Grant Balfour, OAK
2013: 0 W, 17 SV, 0 BS, 28 K, 1.30 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Jim Johnson, BAL
2013: 2 W, 23 SV, 4 BS, 25 K, 4.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

↑Glen Perkins, MIN
2013: 1 W, 15 SV, 2 BS, 35 K, 2.55 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

Casey Janssen, TOR
2013: 1 W, 13 SV, 1 BS, 21 K, 2.61 ERA, 0.77 WHIP

↓Tom Wilhelmsen, SEA
2013: 0 W, 16 SV, 4 BS, 21 K, 3.77 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Again, there’s minimal movement in Tier 3, as Glen Perkins jumps ahead of Tom Wilhelmsen, this week. Perkins, like the Twins, doesn’t get much exposure on either coasts, but he’s been extremely effective in his 24 2/3 innings or work, striking out 35 batters and walking just six. His 12.77 K/9 rate is eighth best among relievers, and he’s struck out two or more batters in 13 of 27 games. Perkins is a top-10 talent stuck on a not top-10 team. Wilhelmsen, meanwhile, is stumbling big time, as he was blown up by the Astros on Wednesday night to the tune of five runs, three hits and two walks. He pitched in 79 1/3 innings last year, and that heavy workload is catching up to him this year. Grant Balfour is a perfect 17-for-17 in save chances, and he has 35 saves in a row dating back to last season. His 25.5% strikeout rate is his best rate in five years, and I am no longer worried about Ryan Cook potentially taking over as closer in Oakland. Go get Balfour if his owner doesn’t believe in his fast start. Jim Johnson is another closer I would seriously consider dealing for if the price was right. If you’re purely looking for save numbers, there may not be anyone on the market better for you than Johnson, who has 84 saves over the last two years combined. He’s also striking out significantly more batters this season (5.37 K/9 in 2012; 7.18 K/9 in 2013). Just don’t watch his save chances and you’ll be fine. Casey Janssen blew his first save chance of the year last Saturday, giving up two runs on two hits and one walk against the Rangers. He bounced back nicely three days later with his 13th save of the season. Janssen sports a solid 21:3 K:BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings.

Tier 4

↑Greg Holland, KC
2013: 2 W, 13 SV, 2 BS, 37 K, 1.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

Ernesto Frieri, LAA
2013: 0 W, 14 SV, 1 BS, 37 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Andrew Bailey, BOS
2013: 2 W, 7 SV, 2 BS, 29 K, 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Heath Bell, ARI
2013: 2 W, 12 SV, 2 BS, 30 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.54 WHIP

Bobby Parnell, NYM
2013: 4 W, 9 SV, 3 BS, 26 K, 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

There’s a new king atop Tier 4, as Greg Holland leapfrogs both Ernesto Frieri and Andrew Bailey to take over the top spot in the fourth group of five. Not only is Holland’s K/9 rate of 13.88 impressive – the fifth highest K/9 rate in the league – but Holland has also cut down on the walks, which really killed his value at the start of the year. After allowing six free passes in his first four games of the season, Holland has walked just four in his last 20. A Holland that’s not wild could crack the top 10. Frieri, on the other hand, is still wild. His 6.23 BB/9 rate is among the worst in baseball (that’s 18 walks in 26 innings), and I think it’s only a matter of time before the Angels make a switch in the back of the bullpen. Ryan Madson was paid to be their closer and I expect it to happen at some point. He needs to prove his health first. After walking six batters all year, Boston’s Bailey walked three and blew his second save of the year against the Rays on Monday. He’s looked clean otherwise, so I won’t read too much into one poor outing. It looks like Heath Bell would make a fine closer for the rest of the season in Arizona, but J.J. Putz is on his way back. He’ll immediately reclaim the ninth inning upon return. Bobby Parnell has really scuffled of late, allowing five runs (four earned) and eight hits in his last 3 1/3 innings of work. Parnell will need to take full advantage of every save chance on a poor New York team going forward to be considered more valuable in fantasy circles.

Tier 5

Kevin Gregg, CHC
2013: 2 W, 7 SV, 0 BS, 21 K, 0.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

↑Jose Veras, HOU
2013: 0 W, 11 SV, 3 BS, 33 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Fernando Rodney, TB
2013: 2 W, 13 SV, 5 BS, 36 K, 4.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

*Jim Henderson, MIL
2013: 2 W, 9 SV, 1 BS, 26 K, 1.66 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

*Kenley Jansen, LAD
2013: 1 W, 3 SV, 1 BS, 48 K, 2.38 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

↓Jose Valverde, DET
2013: 0 W, 9 SV, 3 BS, 17 K, 4.15 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

It was cute when Kevin Gregg became relevant again, but now it looks like his return to the bigs is for real. Everyone assumed he would just disappear, but Gregg is currently striking out a career-best 28% of hitters and walking 9.3%, which is his lowest mark in seven years. His 2.64 FIP and 3.23 xFIP indicate that he can handle the ninth inning all season long if the Cubs allow him to. Jose Veras moves up because when all things stabilize, you have a pretty good pitcher. No, he’s not going to rack up the saves in Houston, but he’s a reliable source of K’s and he won’t kill your WHIP. Fernando Rodney is holding onto the Ray’s closer gig thanks to a loyal Joe Maddon, but the closer’s 7.24 BB/9 rate can sink your WHIP any day of the week. Jim Henderson returned from the DL and promptly blew his first save chance, giving up two runs on two hits, including a home run against the Marlins on Tuesday. He also struck out three in the inning. Hopefully that’s just the rust coming off, because he’s been great otherwise. It finally happened. Kenley Jansen is finally the Dodgers’ closer. Now instead of Brandon League blowing games in the ninth, he can do it in the seventh and eighth. Expect elite K’s from Jansen – he has 48 strikeouts in 34 innings – and a solid ERA and WHIP, but don’t expect huge save numbers on a below-average team. I hinted at a Jose Valverde meltdown last week, and he’s carried it over into Week 11. The Detroit closer blew his third save of the year on Wednesday, giving up a game-tying two-run homer to the Royals’ Lorenzo Cain. It’s the fifth home run allowed by Valverde in 17 1/3 innings this year, which puts his HR/FB rate at a hideous 40.8%. Look for Detroit to look outside the organization for help in the ninth. I don’t think Valverde lasts much longer.

Tier 6

Vinnie Pestano, CLE
2013: 1 W, 0 SV, 2 BS, 18 K, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Rex Brothers, COL
2013: 2 W, 2 SV, 1 BS, 28 K, 0.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Luke Gregerson, SD
2013: 4 W, 3 SV, 2 BS, 26 K, 2.01 ERA, 0.89 WHIP

Steve Cishek, MIA
2013: 1 W, 7 SV, 2 BS, 24 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Vinnie Pestano leads the way among the bottom tier closers even with Chris Perez is on his way back. He’s yet to earn a save, but he’s struck out six and walked just one in six innings of work since his four-run blowup against the Red Sox on May 25. His velocity, which was down early in the year, is reportedly back in the 90-92 mph range. I would like him a lot more if he got an extended look at closer. I get the feeling that the Rockies would like Rex Brothers to be their full-time closer the rest of the way, but Rafael Betancourt will likely take over in the ninth again when his groin is all healed up. Brothers sports a tidy 0.31 ERA, but his FIP is 2.79 and his xFIP is 3.88, so expect some regression. He’s yet to give up a long ball, which is a big plus in Colorado, and he’s struck out 28 batters in 28 2/3 innings. Ride him while he’s hot. I’ve long supported Luke Gregerson as closer in San Diego, but he hasn’t looked sharp since Huston Street went down. He’s blown a save and given up four runs in his last 1 2/3 innings, so the quicker the better for a Street return. Steve Cishek got the latest save opportunity in Miami, and, ta-da, he converted! I don’t think the Marlins should have gone away from Cishek in the first place, but I don’t want to rank him any higher until Miami commits to one closer.

Obviously the biggest news of the week is the craziness that Yaisel Puig has brought to the Los Angeles Dodgers and to fantasy leagues across the land. Through his first 8 games, his slash line is a ridiculous .471/.500/.882. That’s right folks his OPS is 1.382. On top of all of that he has 4 home runs and 10 RBI. This is in just over a week people. Most guys on the lower half of this list would be pretty happy with those numbers for a month.

Tuesday night, Puig went 0-2, got hit in the face with a pitch (and was fine), and then got tossed for going ballistic after Zach Greinke got plunked. Even though all of this adds up to a great story, he’s not going to repeat the season that Mike Trout had last year. I just don’t think he’s that type of player. Talent evaluators seem to think that his hit tool isn’t polished enough and can be exposed by throwing him breaking balls. At least 2 of his home runs have come off of breaking balls, so he can hit the ones that miss, which is good, but when he’s faced with a steady diet of junk, I expect that his numbers will normalize. Wait… do I mean normalize down from a 1.382 OPS… yeah… going out on a pretty sturdy limb there.

As players who aren’t taking major metropolitan areas by storm, Troy Tulowitzki has been going off. Coming into action on Tuesday Tulo’s slash line for the month of June was .424/.500/.848 which is good for a Puigian OPS of 1.348. Since June 1, he’s scored 9 runs, hit 4 home runs and driven in 8 runs. Health is always a concern for Tulo, but when healthy, he’s a top 10 fantasy player.

Some injuries have cropped up that led me to drop a few guys down the list a bit. I’m looking at you Bryce Harper. As for the top of the list. I have to go with Miggy.

1. Miguel Cabrera
   He’s a force. In only 3 of his last 10 games has he failed to score a run.
2. Mike Trout
   Trout has quietly had a fantastic season. In his last 4 games he’s scored 5 runs, hit 2 homers, driven in 4 runs and swiped a bag. Suggestions that his rookie campaign was an aberration are and have been ridiculous. He can flat out play.
3. Carlos Gonzalez
   Cargo gives you amazingly balanced production with numbers that are similar to Trout’s YTD.
4. Joey Votto
   Votto’s RBI totals are down, but his .446 OBP leads the league, which proves to be good for the Reds and Brandon Phillips who hits behind him, but you’d like to see a bit more run production from someone who’s such a supremely talented hitter.
5. Robinson Cano
   Slow and steady wins the race. That’s exactly what Cano brings to the table. His stats are money in the bank.
6. Justin Upton
   After a blistering month of April, Upton has seen his OPS fall from 1.122 on May 1st, to .848 on June 10th. Over that stretch he’s hitting .215/.331/.308. Since June 1st his batting average is .229 and that’s even with a BABIP of .364. Things are not going well for Justin Upton right now. He’ll turn it around.
7. Ryan Braun
8. Prince Fielder
9. Paul Goldschmidt
10. Troy Tulowitzki
11. David Wright
12. Andrew McCutchen
13. Manny Machado
14. Evan Longoria
15. Shin-Soo Choo
16. Adam Jones
17. Adrian Beltre
18. Giancarlo Stanton
19. Jose Bautista
20. Buster Posey
21. Bryce Harper
22. Dustin Pedroia
23. Alex Rios
24. Chris Davis
25. Brandon Phillips
26. Edwin Encarnacion
27. Adrian Gonzalez
28. Billy Butler
29. Jason Heyward
30. David Ortiz
31. Joe Mauer
32. Jean Segura
33. Carlos Gomez
34. Anthony Rizzo
35. Yoenis Cespedes
36. Aramis Ramirez
37. Jason Kipnis
38. Jay Bruce
39. Allen Craig
40. Domonic Brown
41. Dexter Fowler
42. Starling Marte
43. Ian Kinsler
44. Ryan Zimmerman
45. Starlin Castro
46. Ben Zobrist
47. Freddie Freeman
48. Josh Hamilton
49. Ian Desmond
50. Chase Utley
51. Yadier Molina
52. Coco Crisp
53. Mark Reynolds
54. Everth Cabrera
55. Yaisel Puig
56. Matt Holliday
57. Carlos Beltran
58. Jose Altuve
59. Pablo Sandoval
60. Mike Napoli
61. Albert Pujols
62. Mark Trumbo
63. Josh Donaldson
64. Jimmy Rollins
65. Alex Gordon
66. Carlos Santana
67. Hunter Pence
68. Matt Carpenter
69. Desmond Jennings
70. Jose Reyes
71. Kendrys Morales
72. Chase Headley
73. Austin Jackson
74. Nate McLouth
75. Todd Frazier
76. Nori Aoki
77. Michael Bourn
78. Nick Markakis
79. Alcides Escobar
80. Hanley Ramirez
81. Wilin Rosario
82. Adam Lind
83. Josh Willingham
84. Asdrubal Cabrera
85. Howie Kendrick
86. Matt Kemp
87. Salvador Perez
88. Corey Hart
89. Kevin Youkilis
90. Nelson Cruz
91. Carl Crawford
92. Curtis Granderson
93. Michael Cuddyer
94. Howard Kendrick
95. Kyle Seager
96. Mike Morse
97. Victor Martinez
98. Alfonso Soriano
99. Paul Konerko
100. Nick Swisher
101. Shane Victorino
102. Jayson Werth

Teheran has made 11 starts this season and has a 4-2 record with a 3.30 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. He had a bumpy start to his season, giving up a total of 13 earned runs in his first 3 starts (16 innings). After that 3rd start on April 18th, his ERA stood at 7.31 and his WHIP was 1.75. Opposing hitters had a 1.031 OPS against Teheran in those first 3 starts.

Since then, Teheran’s OPS against is sitting at .626. His ERA is 2.13 and WHIP is 1.054. In his 8 most recent games, his strike percentage has been 19.7% which is up from 15.4% in his first 3 starts. He’s obviously not blowing people away with his K%, but the increase is definitely nice to see.

His walk rate is where you can see what kind of pitcher Teheran can really become. In his first 3 starts, he walked 8.9% of the batters he faced. That’s not a bad number at all. Since then, he’s walking only 3.6% of opposing batters and his K/BB is at 5.38.

Let’s take a look at a pitcher who is known for a great BB% and K/BB rate, Cliff Lee. Since 2004, Cliff Lee has walked 5.2% of the batters he’s faced. His K/BB rate is 3.83. Teheran’s K/BB in the minors was 3.02 and his BB% was 7.1% so cutting that in half would be a major accomplishment. If he can manage to keep his BB% down and his K/BB rate up in the 3.0 – 3.5 range, I think Teheran is going to be a major force for the Braves moving forward.

As I mentioned in last week’s Charge the Mound, there has been talk about how the Braves rotation will shape up as Brandon Beachy is poised to rejoin the rotation. It’s really an embarrassment of starting pitching riches with the Braves (no surprise there). The rotation is headed up by consistent veteran Tim Hudson. Followed by steady, but surprising, Paul Maholm. After that there’s Mike Minor, who is arguably been the best pitcher on the staff this season. Then comes last year’s darling, Kris Medlen and bringing up the tail end of the rotation is our protagonist Julio Teheran. Teheran is only 22, so he certainly could be the low man on the totem pole (too much?), but he’s been pitching so well, it’s hard to see him moving to a bullpen role or see him being sent down. As I have mentioned previously, I think Medlen is a better fit for a bullpen role. He has a good fastball that he can put more into in short bursts and make his change up even more devastating.

If Teheran does get moved out of the rotation, his value will dip significantly. For those of you who are in a keeper or dynasty format, that would be the time to snatch him up. Teheran profiles as a

1. Yu Darvish
   Darvish went 7 innings against the Royals and didn’t give up an earned run. He walked 2 and struck out 6. As I mentioned, his 34.8% strikeout percentage is crazy and bears repeating. He also owns the best H/9 (5.3) and K/9 (12.3) in the league. There have been rumblings about fatigue swirling, but until we see a sustained dip in production, I don’t think there’s anything to worry about here.
2. Adam Wainwright
   If I was a GM and was looking for an anchor for my pitching staff, I’d take a long hard look at Adam Wainwright. His last outing, he went 9 innings, giving up 1 earned run and no walks, while notching 10 strikeouts. Even when doesn’t have his stuff, he is able to keep his team in ball games.
3. Clayton Kershaw
   It’s hard to ding a guy who has a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, but Kershaw is in a bit of rough stretch where he’s not dominating. Since his complete game against the Brewers on 5/20, his ERA is 4.05 and batters have a .275/.341/.388 against him. Also his 21.6 K% is a dip below his season K% of 25.1% and his BB% is up about 1 percentage point. Like I said, hard to ding him for this stuff.
4. Justin Verlander
   The three earned run in consecutive games narrative is too glaring to ignore. Verlander gave up 3 again in his most recent start against the Orioles. It’s the first time since September 20, 2008 that Justin Verlander has given up 3+ earned runs in 5 consecutive games.  That start was Verlander’s 96th game and his last start was his 244th. Wow.
5. Felix Hernandez
   Felix has a 7-4 record with a 2.58 ERA and 95 Ks this season. His last start against the White Sox netted him a win, but wasn’t a great start. He gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 1 walk. He did strike out 8 batters in 7.1 innings. His next start is at home on Sunday against the Yankees.
6. Cliff Lee
   In Lee’s last start against the Brewers, he gave up 3 earned runs in 7.2 innings and struck out 11 in the win. His strikeout totals are rising. He’s made 12 starts this season. In his first 6 starts his strikeout percentage was 19.6%. Since then, he’s struck out 23.5% of the batters he’s faced. Over the 5 previous seasons (2008-2012) his K% is 21.9%.
7. Max Scherzer
   Scherzer gets a little bump this week following his 7 innings against the Rays. He struck out 9 batters and only gave up 1 earned run. He finished the day with exactly 100 strikeouts. Only Yu Darvish has more Ks on the season.
8. Jordan Zimmermann
   Zimmermann bounced back nicely after his 7 earned run outing against the Orioles. He followed that start up with 8 innings of shutout ball against the Mets. He struck out 4 and gave up 4 hits but didn’t factor in the decision. Next up for Zimmermann are the Twins on Sunday.
9. Hisashi Iwakuma
   I’m not sure if I feel more Mariners guilt for Felix Hernandez or Hisashi Iwakuma. Kuma is having a dominant season. He’s 6-1 with a 1.94 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 79 strikeouts. His last start against the White Sox, he went 8 shut out innings, struck out 5 and didn’t factor in the decision. This was the marathon game that lasted 5:42 and 16 innings.
10. Matt Harvey
    Since his hot start in April, Harvey has cooled a bit. He’s still got great numbers even though he’s not notching win after win. A lot of that has to do with him pitching for the Mets. His strikeout percentage since the beginning of May (6 starts) 25.1%. Prior to that it was 30.6%. In 2 of his last 3 starts he’s given up 4 earned runs. His start on May 22 against the Reds was his second outing against Cincinnati. I wonder if there’s getting to be more of a book on Harvey. We’ll see how he adjusts and pitches to teams he’s facing for the second time.
11. Matt Moore
    Moore got shellacked in his last start against the Tigers. I didn’t have high hopes for him in the start. He was pitching on 3 days rest after the Rays game against Cleveland had a long rain delay where Moore only pitched 1 inning. Pitchers are creatures of habit. When their routine gets thrown off, bad things usually happen. His routine was definitely thrown off and he was facing a fearsome Tigers lineup. The Orioles are up next for Moore. In his 2 starts against Baltimore, Moore has a 2-0 record in 13.2 innings of work with a 2.02 ERA and 10 strikeouts.
12. Mike Minor
    The Pirates managed 2 earned runs on 4 hits in 6 innings against Minor. He didn’t factor in the decision. In his last 2 starts, Minor has managed to not walk a single opponent. His season WHIP is 0.90. He’s the leader of a solid and deep Braves rotation.
13. Shelby Miller
    This guy. Just keeps plugging along in dominant fashion. He pitched 6 innings on Thursday as he picked up his 7th win of the season. He gave up 2 earned runs to the DBacks, struck out 9 and didn’t surrender a walk. Next up for Miller are the Mets in New York.
14. Chris Sale
    Sale gave up just 1 earned run in his last start against Oakland. He gave up only 4 hits, struck out 5 and walked 1, but was saddled with the loss. He’ll get another crack at them on Friday, when the As come to Chicago for a weekend set against the White Sox. He’s given up just 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts.
15. Madison Bumgarner
    A very rough stretch for the left hander as of late. In his last 4 starts, Bumgarner has a 6.29 ERA. One of those starts was a strong 7 inning outing against the Nationals where he only gave up 1 earned run. In the 3 other starts, he’s given up 4+ runs. It’s been a tough year to be a Giants starter.
16. Clay Buchholz
    Bucholz continues to dazzle. He got the win in a rain shortened game against the Yankees. He’s only given up 5 earned runs over his last 4 starts. His strikeout totals have dipped lately with over 4 Ks in just one of his last 4 starts.
17. Patrick Corbin
    Corbin ran his record to 9-0 against the Cubs on Sunday but didn’t do it convincingly. He mostly relied on his teammates knocking around Edwin Jackson for 12 hits and 5 earned runs. Corbin did go 6 innings and struck out 5 in the win. Corbin’s next start is against the Giants in the desert.
18. Hiroki Kuroda
    Kuroda was on the other side of the rain shortened game against the Red Sox. He took the loss giving up 3 earned runs over 5.1 innings. He’ll take his 2.59 ERA to the mound Friday against Seattle.
19. Anibal Sanchez
    Sanchez seems to be alternating W-L-W-L lately. He has a 6-5 record to go with his  2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He pitched 7 strong innings against the Rays on Tuesday. he struck out 9 in the victory. He goes up against Cleveland on Sunday in a series that is sure to be interesting.
20. Julio Teheran
    After having him in the Keep an Eye On section last week, Teheran goes out and nearly throws a no-hitter. He lost his no hit bid in the 8th inning. In his 8 innings, he struck out 11 and walked 2. His stuff was electric. In his last 8 starts his ERA is 2.13 and his strikeout percentage is at 19.7%. Most of the strikeouts coming in the 2 most recent starts where he struck out 9 and 11 respectively. The big question with Teheran is whether of not he’ll stay in the rotation when Brandon Beachy returns. If I was making the decisions in Atlanta, I’d use Kris Medlen as a setup guy and keep Teheran in the rotation.

Keep an Eye On

1. Stephen Strasburg
   A DL stint with an oblique issue scares me. He was the number 5 starter last week, but the injury scares me so much I can’t put him on the list until I see more. He’s a sell for me. If he’s on my team, I’d hold him until he makes some sort of progress, or a start, and then sell. 
2. Jarrod Parker
   Parker debuted on the list at #33 in the second week of the season. I’ve been a believer in this guy all season. He’s starting to get his season on track. He has a 4.90 ERA on the season, but over his last 7 starts he has a 4-2 record with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. His 20.9% strikeout percentage over the last 7 starts isn’t great, but it is better than his 17.9% career rate.
3. Gerrit Cole
   Cole is the top pitching prospect in the minors right now and it looks like he’s going to be called up to start for the Pirates next Tuesday. This is a guy who has a mature body, a deep arsenal of plus pitches. He has a 2.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 rate in 12 starts at the AAA level this season. If you’re in any kind of keeper league and Cole isn’t owned, this may be your last chance to get him for a while. He has the potential to top this list in future.

Tier 1

Craig Kimbrel, ATL
2013: 1 W, 17 SV, 3 BS, 32 K, 1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Aroldis Chapman, CIN
2013: 3 W, 15 SV, 2 BS, 46 K, 2.42 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Mariano Rivera, NYY
2013: 0 W, 21 SV, 1 BS, 20 K, 1.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Jason Grilli, PIT
2013: 0 W, 22 SV, 0 BS, 43 K, 1.01 ERA, 0.71 WHIP

↑Joe Nathan, TEX
2013: 1 W, 18 SV, 1 BS, 24 K, 1.85 ERA, 0.82 WHIP

There’s a fresh face in Tier 1 this week, as Jason Grilli squeezes his way into the top group of closers. The Pittsburgh stopper leads the majors with 22 saves – zero blown saves – and is second behind Aroldis Chapman with 43 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings (14.51 K/9). I’ve mentioned buying low on Grilli before, but those days have officially past. If his owner is ready to deal, he’s probably going to want some serious talent in return (and rightfully so). Craig Kimbrel remains master of his domain with 17 saves and a 12.34 K/9 rate. I think the best is yet to come for Kimbrel, who hasn’t given up a run since allowing a combined three runs in a pair of early-May games. Chapman leads all relievers with 46 strikeouts in 26 innings (15.92 K/9), but he’s been more wild this year than last (4.15 BB/9). It sounds strange to say, but you’ll gladly take the walks if he continues to dominate everywhere else. It’s not killing his value after all. Mariano Rivera may not throw as hard as his Tier 1 peers, but he’s still getting whiffs – 10.9% swinging strike rate – and recently pushed his K/9 rate past eight. With precision control – two walks in 22 2/3 innings – Mo has to be considered elite once again despite the drop in strikeouts. Joe Nathan has righted the ship after a rough stretch – albeit a short one – in the middle of May. He’s back to striking out more than nine batters per nine with six punch outs in his last four innings of work. He’s firmly back in my closer circle of trust.

Tier 2

Sergio Romo, SF
2013: 3 W, 16 SV, 2 BS, 25 K, 2.59 ERA, 0.90 WHIP

Addison Reed, CHW
2013: 2 W, 17 SV, 1 BS, 32 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Jonathan Papelbon, PHI
2013: 0 W, 11 SV, 0 BS, 19 K, 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP

↑Edward Mujica, STL
2013: 0 W, 17 SV, 0 BS, 24 K, 1.67 ERA, 0.63 WHIP

↓Rafael Soriano, WAS
2013: 1 W, 15 SV, 3 BS, 17 K, 2.74 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

Sometimes the guy with the biggest arm isn’t his team’s best option at closer. The Cardinals have learned that the easy way with Edward Mujica, who is fast becoming the new “steady Eddie” in baseball. He remains a perfect 17-for-17 in save chances and hasn’t walked a batter in his last 24 appearances. What’s not to love about Sergio Romo? The beard, if you’re anti-beard I suppose, but that’s it. Romo has successfully converted from awesome reliever to awesome closer. He even picked up the unconventional four-out save against the Cardinals on Sunday. Addison Reed hasn’t been getting much work lately as the White Sox struggle to do anything on offense, so naturally he gets the call to protect a five-run lead in the 14th inning against the Mariners on Wednesday and proceeds to give up five runs of his own. Reed stayed in the game for the next two innings and picked up the win – striking out the side in the 16th – but his ERA rose from 2.25 to 3.67 as a result. I’m not worried at all, as Chicago’s closer warmed up in the pen three or four times before finally entering the game. I recommend buying Reed if his owner is the impulsive panicky type. Jonathan Papelbon averaged 85 strikeouts from 2009-2011, but Philadelphia’s veteran closer won’t be getting anywhere close to that number this season – he has 19 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings – thanks to decreased velocity and, so far, a light workload. I expect him to be moved at the deadline, which could either help or hurt his value depending on the destination. I was tempted to move Rafael Soriano out of Tier 2 altogether, but he’s been perfect in his last three outings. The strikeout decline from last year’s 9.18 K/9 to this year’s 6.65 is concerning, but he’s been able to skate by with improved control (1.57 BB/9). Still, with declining everything – velocity, strikeout rate and swinging strike rate – I foresee more trouble ahead for Soriano. He’s someone to sell.

Tier 3

Grant Balfour, OAK
2013: 0 W, 13 SV, 0 BS, 26 K, 1.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Jim Johnson, BAL
2013: 2 W, 19 SV, 4 BS, 24 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

↓Tom Wilhelmsen, SEA
2013: 0 W, 14 SV, 3 BS, 19 K, 2.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP

Glen Perkins, MIN
2013: 1 W, 12 SV, 2 BS, 34 K, 2.91 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

↑Casey Janssen, TOR
2013: 1 W, 12 SV, 0 BS, 19 K, 1.93 ERA, 0.59 WHIP

I didn’t expect Casey Janssen to make it this far as Toronto’s closer, as I’ve been adamant in my support of Sergio Santos as the more talented option for the Blue Jays, but you can’t ignore Janssen’s improvements. He’s striking out more batters (9.16 K/9), walking less (0.48 BB/9), and holding opponents to a .154 average. He’s pretty much the only thing Toronto’s gotten right this year. Grant Balfour has earned the benefit of the doubt in Oakland with 13 saves in 13 chances, and he’s lengthened his leash from talented setup man Ryan Cook in the process. The closer mentality of Jim Johnson has proven strong, as the Baltimore stopper has rattled off four consecutive saves – striking out five and walking none in four innings – after his two-week stretch of four blown saves. I considered moving Tom Wilhelmsen down a tier, but I’m going to stick with him one more week before deciding his fate. He’s blown three of his last six save chances, walking nine in his last 8 2/3 innings of work. He doesn’t look like the same pitcher compared to last year, as his strikeout rate has fallen hard from 9.87 K/9 to 6.49. I’d sell, as I don’t expect him to survive the trade deadline. Glen Perkins is very close to surpassing Wilhelmsen. Their numbers are nearly identical, except Perkins has a big advantage in strikeouts with 34 in 21 2/3 innings (14.12 K/9). Too bad the Twins don’t provide him with more save chances.

Tier 4

Ernesto Frieri, LAA
2013: 0 W, 13 SV, 1 BS, 35 K, 3.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Andrew Bailey, BOS
2013: 1 W, 6 SV, 1 BS, 24 K, 1.65 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

Greg Holland, KC
2013: 1 W, 10 SV, 2 BS, 30 K, 2.37 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Heath Bell, ARI
2013: 2 W, 10 SV, 2 BS, 27 K, 3.57 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

↑Bobby Parnell, NYM
2013: 4 W, 9 SV, 3 BS, 23 K, 2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

Bobby Parnell moves up a tier (finally) because his two-year body of work with the Mets has been outstanding. In his last 93 1/3 innings, the New York closer has a solid 84:28 K:BB ratio. I don’t think he’s ever going to get over the 9+ K/9 hump, but he’s not going to hurt himself with the walk or the long ball – he’s yet to serve up a home run in 24 2/3 innings. Lack of save chances keeps him down. Since the last time we met, Ernesto Frieri hasn’t made much progress in dropping his BB/9 rate, which now stands at an ugly 6.31. I don’t know how much longer he can get by being so wild – his 5.09 FIP and 4.73 xFIP agree. The Angels are a mess and Frieri isn’t helping. The talent of Andrew Bailey certainly outweighs the ranking here, but his medical history is too lengthy to ignore. I just don’t see him making it through the year unscathed. Greg Holland has struck out an impressive 30 batters in 19 1/3 innings, making him fifth in the league with a 14.21 K//9 rate. He can get a little wild at times, but he’s doing his best to buck that trend, walking just three batters in his last 16 innings. If you’re looking for a closer to trade for, Holland is a great unassuming target in Kansas City. After last year’s mess in Miami, no one in their right mind would have predicted that Heath Bell would lead the Diamondbacks in saves, but that’s where things stand in the desert. Bell has done an admirable job filling in for J.J. Putz, but the latter is expected to throw off the mound this weekend and could soon begin a rehab assignment. Bell’s time may soon be up.

Tier 5

Kevin Gregg, CHC
2013: 2 W, 6 SV, 0 BS, 18 K, 1.08 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

Jose Valverde, DET
2013: 0 W, 6 SV, 2 BS, 11 K, 3.55 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

↑Fernando Rodney, TB
2013: 2 W, 12 SV, 5 BS, 31 K, 4.74 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

↑Jose Veras, HOU
2013: 0 W, 11 SV, 3 BS, 31 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Kevin Gregg continues to lead the way in the Tier 5, which can be called the “old AL West” tier because there are only four members, as the Chicago closer defies age and baseball logic with a career-best 9.72 K/9 rate. If there was a closer comeback award, Gregg would be awarded the silver medal (after Mariano Rivera’s gold, of course). Jose Valverde showed some rust last week with a blown save in Baltimore, giving up a pair of home runs to Nick Markakis (a solo shot) and Chris Dickerson (a three-run bomb). I warned of a Motown meltdown last week, and this certainly qualifies – although technically it was in Baltimore. Fernando Rodney makes a triumphant return to a non-cellar tier with six clean appearances, allowing just one hit and two walks in his last 5 1/3 innings. If you own Rodney, you have to stick with him, as manager Joe Maddon appears set on using him in the ninth for the long haul. Jose Veras also pops out of the cellar – unlike the Astros in the standings – with seven punch outs and one walk in his last four innings of work. Veras’ 28.2% strikeout rate is his best ever, as his swinging strike rate, first-pitch strike rate and walk rate. I think he holds onto the job the rest of the way.

Tier 6

Vinnie Pestano, CLE
2013: 1 W, 0 SV, 2 BS, 16 K, 4.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Francisco Rodriguez, MIL
2013: 0 W, 3 SV, 0 BS, 7 K, 1.08 ERA, 0.84 WHIP

Brandon League, LAD
2013: 1 W, 13 SV, 3 BS, 12 K, 4.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Luke Gregerson, SD
2013: 3 W, 1 SV, 1 BS, 20 K, 1.01 ERA, 0.68 WHIP

Rex Brothers, COL
2013: 1 W, 2 SV, 1 BS, 25 K, 0.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Mike Dunn, MIA
2013: 1 W, 1 SV, 1 BS, 25 K, 3.08 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Bottom-heavy Tier 6 includes a pair of new faces in Luke Gregerson and Rex Brothers, as both Huston Street and Rafael Betancourt hit the 15-day DL for the Padres and Rockies, respectively. I’ve always liked Gregerson – who has a career 2.75 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 307 1/3 innings of work – more than Street (calf), but he’s never been given a real chance to win the ninth-inning job in San Diego. His time at closer will be short, but he’s worth the pickup if you’re just looking for saves. The same goes for Brothers (and his microscopic 0.35 ERA), who will be the short-term fix in Colorado as Betancourt rests a sore groin. Last week I had Francisco Rodriguez ahead of Vinnie Pestano, but the fact that Jim Henderson could soon return in Milwaukee – he’s beginning a rehab assignment on Friday – gives Pestano the upper hand on providing closer value for longer. Somehow Brandon League continues to pitch in meaningful games for the Dodgers despite clearly not being the best man for the job. That man is Kenley Jansen. I don’t have much to say about Mike Dunn, other than to say, you can do better. The closer fiasco in Miami is one to avoid.