https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?section=265Joe Terranovaen-us2020-01-03T17:36:24.3028200-05:002020-01-03T17:36:24.3028200-05:00acsysinteractive SiteManagerhttps://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=12458&section=265Joe Terranova, Virtus' chief market strategist, shares his thoughts on the financial markets in his quarterly review and outlook call. 2017-02-23T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11338&section=265February Vital Signs: Joe Terranova highlights six market events and indicators to watch in the month ahead.2015-02-02T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11240&section=2652015 begins with incredibly high expectations for U.S. assets, the U.S. economy, and SPX earnings strength.2014-12-29T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11174&section=265Joe Terranova offers 10 behavioral finance themes to ponder at year-end.2014-12-04T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11175&section=265Joe Terranova pulls together the latest SPX earnings, metrics, and M&A activity 2014-12-04T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11173&section=265Joe Terranova considers potential impact of commodities on the economy, asset classes, and sectors in Q1 2015.2014-12-03T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11169&section=2657 reasons why Joe Terranova expects ‘modest improvement’ for EM assets in 2015.2014-12-02T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11170&section=2652015 Consensus Views: Joe Terranova shares 21 for investors to consider2014-12-02T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11161&section=2652014-11-26T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11094&section=265Joe Terranova shares his expectations for this month’s OPEC meeting and the cartel’s future.2014-11-17T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11081&section=265Why worry about Russia? Joe Terranova shares concerns for potential impact to global risk assets.2014-11-12T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11074&section=265Strong margin expansion a point of emphasis in Joe Terranova’s Q3 S&P 500 earnings roundup.2014-11-07T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11072&section=265Joe Terranova explains why elections matter to capital markets, especially Japan’s.2014-11-06T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11043&section=2652014-10-31T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11018&section=265SPX CQ3 Earnings and Global M&A Update – Joe Terranova’s data round-up through October 23.2014-10-24T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=11007&section=265Joe Terranova’s thoughts on this week’s volatility and the next market.2014-10-17T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10967&section=265Joe Terranova contemplates the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the reality of the current rate environment.2014-10-07T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10966&section=2652014-10-06T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10937&section=2652014-09-30T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10930&section=265“Fed Taper Wasn’t a Tantrum After All” – Joe Terranova’s offers his latest market insights. 2014-09-25T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10923&section=265What does Midtown traffic have in common with capital markets? Joe Terranova sees an analogy.2014-09-24T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10918&section=265Which asset classes may be impacted by the rising U.S. dollar? Joe Terranova discusses market implications.2014-09-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10876&section=265Joe Terranova offers market insights on the August jobs report, S&P technicals, and what’s ahead for next week.2014-09-05T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10851&section=265Joe Terranova comments on strong August ISM Manufacturing data.2014-09-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10847&section=265Joe Terranova suggests some economic indicators to watch in September and why.2014-08-28T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10825&section=265Joe Terranova is inspired by Warren Buffet and suggests how average investors may improve their investment outcome.2014-08-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10824&section=2652014-08-15T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10784&section=265Has the long-awaited market correction begun? Joe Terranova suggests watching these two indicators for guidance.2014-08-03T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10774&section=2652014-07-29T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10757&section=265Within the past 24 hours, The Wall Street Journal reported that the nearly $290 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALPERS) portfolio will reduce its exposure to hedge funds (alternatives) by 40%.2014-07-24T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10751&section=265What is Joe Terranova’s current view of nine investment themes he favored in December 2013?2014-07-21T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10745&section=265S&P 500 CQ2 earnings from 82 companies to date, plus YTD M&A activity– Joe Terranova runs through the numbers.2014-07-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10724&section=265Joe Terranova runs through his “All-Star” lineup of what’s ahead for the capital markets this week.2014-07-14T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10707&section=265Three market conditions to watch closely, two investment ideas to consider, Joe Terranova shares with readers.2014-07-08T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10705&section=265The second half of 2014 began this holiday-shortened week. Global risk assets continued to appreciate, and I would argue for good reasons. 2014-07-03T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10697&section=2652014 Capital Markets Summary: Joe Terranova posts mid-year performance of US and global major markets 2014-07-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10524&section=2652014-06-26T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10689&section=265Heading into 2014, a critical theme and potential tailwind for global capital markets was a recovery in global merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. 2014-06-25T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10663&section=265Joe Terranova’s mid-year portfolio insights: Strike a balance for the second half, and focus on the micro 2014-06-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10660&section=265Time to give energy the proper attention it deserves, says Joe Terranova. Read why in "Portfolio Implications: Iraq"2014-06-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10658&section=265Ahead of the Fed: Joe Terranova offers a preview of what we might expect from this week’s FOMC meeting 2014-06-17T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10616&section=265Joe Terranova posts round 3 comments on today’s capital markets; the latest on ISM and US Treasury yields.2014-06-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10611&section=265Joe Terranova looks at the “busy” week ahead for capital markets, with a focus on the euro and financials.2014-06-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10612&section=265What does Joe Terranova think of China’s highest PMI Mfg. reading since December 2013?2014-06-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10607&section=2652014-05-28T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10595&section=265Just out – Joe Terranova’s views on rising oil prices and what this potentially means for investors2014-05-21T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10593&section=265Joe Terranova considers: Does Q2 outperformance of emerging markets suggest a larger 2014 bullish trend?2014-05-20T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10570&section=2652014 SALT Conference “the best” Joe Terranova has ever attended.2014-05-16T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10535&section=265Joe Terranova checks in on year-to-date performance of major global currency markets.2014-05-05T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10533&section=265Joe Terranova comments on the release of key U.S. economic data, ISM Manufacturing and Private Payrolls.2014-05-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10511&section=2652014-04-30T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10518&section=265Joe Terranova looks ahead to next week's big macro events, including much central bank activity.2014-04-25T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10503&section=265Joe Terranova comments on S&P 500 Q1 earnings to date.2014-04-21T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10476&section=265What does Joe Terranova make of the March FOMC minutes released yesterday?2014-04-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10472&section=265This past Friday the Labor Department released the nonfarm payroll report for March.2014-04-07T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10449&section=265The second quarter began with the U.S. ISM manufacturing release for the month of March (Figure 1). Consensus estimates called for an increase to 54.0 from February’s 53.2.2014-04-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10448&section=2652014-03-31T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10380&section=2652014-03-28T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10418&section=2652014-03-24T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10412&section=265First of all, a belated happy St. Patrick’s Day. I don’t know about you, but I was eerily reminded of 2008, the last time St. Patty’s Day fell on a Monday, when markets managed through the news that J.P. Morgan paid $2 per share for Bear Stearns. 2014-03-20T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10387&section=265This past Tuesday, I enjoyed a wonderful journey across the country to Los Angeles, where sandwiched between the outbound and return flights was an enjoyable evening with some gracious folks from Royal Bank of Canada.2014-03-13T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10357&section=265March has begun somewhat similar to January, with the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1) entering the new month fresh from a new all-time high.2014-03-03T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10354&section=2652014-03-03T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10340&section=265Believe or not, it is already time to begin thinking about the month of March.2014-02-24T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10314&section=265Yesterday, the United States Senate voted 55-43, along party lines, to suspend the debt ceiling limit until March 15, 2015.2014-02-13T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10308&section=265Last Friday, the Department of Labor released its nonfarm payroll report for the month of January.2014-02-10T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10303&section=2652014 has begun with a decline in global risk assets that is shaking out some of the overwhelming bullish consensus for the year by the collective investment community.2014-02-07T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10282&section=265The S&P 500® Index (SPX) staggered through the month of January, declining 3.56% to a January 31 close of 1782.59. 2014-02-03T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10281&section=2652014-02-02T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10275&section=2652014-01-28T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10268&section=265Quarterly earnings for S&P 500-listed companies have neared the quarter pole. Next week another 130 companies will report, bringing the earnings season to the halfway mark.2014-01-24T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10260&section=265Last Thursday, I delivered the keynote address for the Alta Corp Capital Institutional Investor Conference at the Shangri-La hotel in Toronto, Ontario.2014-01-22T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10238&section=265In the wake of Monday's sell-off, I posted a change to my "Global Risk Asset Correction Watch List," based on the technical vulnerability of the S&P 500® Index (SPX).2014-01-16T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10227&section=265This morning I posted a “global risk asset correction watch list” within the “Reflecting Back, Looking Forward” market insight posting.2014-01-13T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10226&section=265Seven days of trading activity year to date is a rather small sample of information to digest for making portfolio decisions; however, there are some conditions that have presented that bear reflection.2014-01-12T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10203&section=265The new year began with the release of global manufacturing activity reports for December2014-01-03T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10202&section=2652014-01-02T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10194&section=2652013-12-30T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10185&section=265I find it valuable to pause in reacting to grand macro events such as yesterday’s long awaited FOMC asset purchase moderation announcement.2013-12-19T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10183&section=265Heading into this morning’s opening, there remains only eight-and-a-half trading sessions before the books close on 2013. 2013-12-18T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10162&section=265Last Friday morning, December 6, the Labor Department released the November nonfarm payrolls report.2013-12-09T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10136&section=265Joe Terranova blogs about strength of Europe’s manufacturing data 2013-12-02T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10135&section=265As the final month of 2013 begins, investors have some weekend economic data from Asia to digest: the November PMI manufacturing index from China and the November trade balance report from South Korea.2013-12-01T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10133&section=2652013-11-27T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10132&section=265As 2013 comes to a close, both the economic and asset recovery in Europe continues to defy skeptics.2013-11-27T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10126&section=265On the afternoon of Wednesday, November 20, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from its October 29-30 meeting.2013-11-20T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10119&section=265On Tuesday morning, November 19, Home Depot Inc. (HD), the largest domestic home improvement retailer, reported Q3 earnings.2013-11-19T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10099&section=265The S&P 500® Index (SPX) established another new all-time of 1791.53 on Thursday, November 14. Beginning Monday, November 18, there are only 30 trading days remaining in 2013.2013-11-15T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10085&section=265This morning the Labor Department released the October nonfarm payrolls report. During the month of October the United States government experienced a shutdown from October 1 until October 16.2013-11-08T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10083&section=265The following charts and tables are part of a capital markets presentation Joe recently gave to a group of financial advisors.2013-11-07T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10061&section=265November has arrived, bringing with it the return of multiple economic data releases and an important central bank meeting in Europe.2013-11-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10048&section=265Last Friday, October 25, the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1) established both a new all-time closing high of 1759.77 and an intraday high of 1759.82.2013-10-28T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10040&section=265Thanks to the D.C. dysfunction, the September nonfarm payroll report was released 18 days later than expected. Accordingly, the October report has been pushed back one week from Friday, November 1, to Friday, November 8.2013-10-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10035&section=265Over the past few weeks, whether writing commentary or presenting to some of our clients, I have argued that the optimal strategy for investors was to largely ignore the D.C. dysfunction.2013-10-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10036&section=265Markets head into Friday’s trade at historic highs and further bolstered by the overnight China Q3 GDP print of 7.8% growth, finally accelerating after Q2’s disappointing 7.5% print.2013-10-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=10006&section=265As mixed messages continue to come from the kindergarten class running D.C.’s academic institution, my attention remains focused on the messages from Q3 earnings2013-10-16T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9999&section=265Heading into Q4, some of the recent economic data points out of China have suggested that the slowdown in growth which began in Q2 2012 could reaccelerate.2013-10-14T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9993&section=265Wednesday afternoon, October 9, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from its September 18-19 meeting.2013-10-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9995&section=2652013-10-09T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9989&section=265The S&P 500® Index (SPX) continued to correct last week from its all-time high of 1729.86 established on the date of the last FOMC meeting, Wednesday, September 19.2013-10-07T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9977&section=265Tuesday morning, October 1, the Institute for Supply Management released its September factory index.2013-10-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9959&section=2652013-09-30T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9936&section=265The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1701.84 on Monday, September 23, extending late last week’s weak trade with a 0.47% decline.2013-09-24T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9930&section=265On Wednesday afternoon, September 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its post-meeting statement absent of any asset purchase moderation.2013-09-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9891&section=265For those of us travelling on the highways and local roads in recent days, it certainly appears that the school year is “officially back.” It also appears, given the considerable traffic jams, that rising gasoline prices are not dampening demand. So much for price elasticity.2013-09-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9892&section=265Each year as the calendar approaches the month of May, many in the investment community suggest it is time to "sell equities in May and go away." However, in 2013, the optimal investment strategy aligned with "sell in May and go away" was to sell U.S. Treasuries.2013-09-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9888&section=265On Friday morning, September 6, the Department of Labor released its August labor report. Overall, the report did not meet consensus estimates and the prior month’s previously reported numbers were revised lower.2013-09-09T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9864&section=265While major U.S. equity exchanges were closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday, several global manufacturing readings were released.2013-09-03T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9861&section=2652013-08-29T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9854&section=265Late Monday, August 26, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alerted Syria that it would be held accountable for using chemical weapons. Subsequent price action for the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1) has reversed the market’s attempt to restore July’s bullish momentum.2013-08-27T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9852&section=265The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) declined 2.65% this past week and is now down 11.6% for 2013. The MXEF declined on the week despite the late week stabilization for U.S. equity markets.2013-08-26T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9842&section=265Since the release of my third quarter playbook “State of Confusion” in early July, it seemed as though the Fed-driven market confusion that began in late May had given way to clarity in the early stages of the third quarter.2013-08-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9836&section=265Thursday, August 15, presents a strong roster of economic data to give investors further insight into the potential for the FOMC to initiate tapering at its September 17-18 meeting. 2013-08-15T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9809&section=265As Friday August 9, 2013 second quarter calendar earnings have been reported for 447 out of the 500 S&P 500 Index (SPX) companies.2013-08-09T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9804&section=265Global capital markets have experienced a strong start to the third quarter pushing many indices to new all-time highs.2013-08-07T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9799&section=265On Friday morning, August 2, the July Nonfarm Payroll report was released. 2013-08-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9797&section=265The first few days of any month always seem to bring the most relevant, and market moving, economic data points. This month is certainly no exception. 2013-08-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9796&section=2652013-08-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9787&section=2652013-07-29T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9788&section=2652013-07-29T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9752&section=265Approximately 102 companies in the S&P 500® Index (SPX) have reported earnings to date.2013-07-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9748&section=265As of last night, global capital markets had experienced roughly one month’s worth of frustrating trading activity, highlighted by the S&P 500® Index (SPX) declining from an all-time high of 1687.18 on May 22 to a trough of 1560.33 on June 24.2013-07-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9741&section=265Spot oil prices have surged nearly $15 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude over the past few weeks. Technically, the recent rise presents a bullish formation for...2013-07-15T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9730&section=2652013-07-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9731&section=2652013-07-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9683&section=265Just this past week, my Q3 playbook "State of Confusion" was released.2013-07-08T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9675&section=265This month, there might be some trepidation as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made it clear that its intention to taper monthly bond purchases will be data dependent. 2013-07-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9673&section=265The second half of 2013 begins with overnight economic data releases from Asia and Europe.2013-07-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9628&section=265On May 22, 2013, the Japanese yen (Figure 1.1) traded to 103.74, its lowest level since October 3, 2008.2013-06-17T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9629&section=265This Tuesday, June 18, the FOMC holds its fourth meeting for 2013.2013-06-16T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9615&section=265This morning the U.S. Labor Department released the May employment report.2013-06-07T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9602&section=265On Monday morning, June 3, the Institute for Supply Management reported the U.S. May ISM Manufacturing Index (Figure 1.1) at 49.0.2013-06-04T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9585&section=265The month of June begins with two important economic releases from Asia.2013-06-03T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9580&section=2652013-05-31T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9577&section=265On Wednesday morning, May 29, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury touched 2.2318%, its highest level since April 2012. Keep in mind, it was the late March 2012 price action that precipitated a larger, prolonged sell-off below 2% throughout 2012 and early 2013.2013-05-29T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9573&section=265In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release, increased speculation regarding when the FOMC will begin tapering its monthly asset purchase program has taken center stage in the business media.2013-05-24T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9569&section=265The S&P 500® Index (SPX) traced a rather ugly intraday reversal on Wednesday. 2013-05-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9542&section=265464 out of 500 S&P 500® Index (SPX) companies have reported earnings.2013-05-20T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9536&section=265The Empire (New York) Manufacturing Index contracted in May to (-1.43) after last month’s +3.05 reading. Consensus estimates for the report were +4.00. 2013-05-15T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9513&section=265The S&P 500® Index (SPX) traced out another new all-time high yesterday at 1632.78. Over the past five days, leadership within the index has transitioned to year-to-date laggards: industrials, materials, and energy. I would also offer that an uptick in bullish sentiment seems far more present over the past week than at the beginning of the second quarter. 2013-05-09T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9492&section=265Last evening, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced its interest rate 0.25% to a now record 2.75%. Governor Glenn Stevens joins his central bank counterparts from the United States, Europe, and Japan in adopting easier monetary policy to carefully lower the value of his domestic currency. Keep in mind, historically the RBA favors higher rates relative to other developed economies in order to attract capital inflows to offset a 30-plus year streak of account deficits. read more....2013-05-07T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9485&section=265On Friday morning, May 3, the Department of Labor released the nonfarm payroll report for the month of April. Over the past few days, a disappointing construction spending figure and a weaker than forecast ADP private payroll report reduced consensus estimates for monthly job gains. However, the surprise this past Friday morning was to the upside as a much stronger than forecast report was released.2013-05-06T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9478&section=265The FOMC concluded its two-day meeting this afternoon with a 2:00 p.m. statement that it will maintain its current pace of QE purchases at $85 billion per month. However, 2013-05-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9477&section=265Throughout 2013, the investment community has looked upon the world’s second largest economy, China, to present evidence of a sharp rebound in growth. 2013-05-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9472&section=2652013-04-30T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9468&section=265As of Friday, April 26, 2013, 270 S&P 500® (SPX) companies had reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2013. Last week’s 170 companies reporting completed the largest earnings week of the season. 2013-04-29T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9461&section=265The first three days of May present global markets with critical economic data releases and central bank meetings. 2013-04-25T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9429&section=265As of Friday, April 19, 102 S&P 500® (SPX) companies have reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2013.2013-04-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9420&section=265Sunday evening, April 14, 2013, first quarter GDP for China (Fig 1.1) was reported at 7.7%, below consensus estimates for 8% growth and the 7.9% reported for the fourth quarter of 2012. 2013-04-15T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9422&section=2652013-04-12T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9403&section=265The utilities sector continues to outperform all major U.S. equity indices, as well as the majority of its sector peers except health care and consumer staples.2013-04-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9390&section=265The Labor Department released its March payroll data this past Friday. Let’s take a look at the data… 2013-04-08T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9359&section=265The second quarter begins today with much caution for a potentially similar market and economic slowdown experienced in each of the prior three years during Q2. 2013-04-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9350&section=2652013-03-28T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9335&section=265The late December reintroduction of the global carry trade, with the Japanese yen assuming the funding currency role, remains one of the strongest tailwinds for the current S&P 500® Index (SPX) appreciation. 2013-03-25T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9324&section=265Today and tomorrow, March 19-20, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting. 2013-03-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9322&section=2652013-03-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9302&section=265On Thursday, March 14, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures (Figures 1.1 & Fig 1.2) were reported as follows2013-03-15T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9273&section=265Friday morning, March 8, 2013, the Department of Labor released the February jobs report. Let’s take a look… 2013-03-08T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9253&section=265On Tuesday, March 5, 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) (Figure 1.1) traded to an all-time intraday high of 14,286.37.2013-03-06T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=9226&section=265On Friday morning, March 1, 2013, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Figure 1.1) for February activity was reported at 54.2. 2013-03-04T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8902&section=265The first day of trading for the month of December greeted investors with...2012-12-03T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8609&section=2652012-09-28T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8564&section=265Throughout the third quarter, the pristine technical formation for the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1.1) has most accurately guided investors.2012-09-14T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8508&section=265Check out Joe Terranova's Interactive Economic Indicator Calendar for Insights into Key Economic Indicators and Key Market Events. 2012-08-31T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8427&section=265In what is shaping up to be a classic “summertime” market, let’s take a look at some charts...2012-07-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8426&section=265The week of July 23, 2012 has 172 more S&P 500® Index (SPX) companies reporting second quarter earnings2012-07-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8424&section=265As of Sunday, July 22, 2012, roughly 24% or 118 of the 500 SPX corporations have reported their quarterly earnings for the calendar second quarter. 2012-07-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8407&section=265Last week initiated the calendar 2012 third earnings release for investors to digest. 2012-07-16T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8406&section=265The surprising performance of financial institutions during the first quarter of 2012 was a leading contributor to the S&P 500® Index’s (SPX) strong start to the year (Figure 1.1). Therefore, it was no coincidence... 2012-07-16T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8388&section=265This week begins the second quarter reporting period for U.S. corporations. Earnings continue to act as a tailwind for the capital markets.2012-07-09T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8266&section=265The current S&P 500 Index (SPX) 8.3% correction will not be arrested without the 4 catalysts shown in the charts below finding stabilization. 2012-05-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8265&section=265Since the S&P 500 Index (SPX) Lehman credit crisis trough at 666.79 on March 6, 20092012-05-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8162&section=265On Saturday, May 12, the People’s Bank of China reduced the Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) for banks by... 2012-05-14T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8033&section=265Global markets awakened Wednesday morning, April 4, to the news that the eurozone’s fourth largest economy...2012-04-05T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=8034&section=265The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed on Monday, April 2, at... 2012-04-05T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7968&section=265It hasn’t been much fun for the bears in 2012...2012-03-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7795&section=265As of the close of business Friday, February 10, 2012…2012-02-13T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7745&section=265The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held next week2012-01-20T00:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7386&section=265One day after receiving better-than-expected global manufacturing figures,2011-09-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7155&section=265Global markets continue to decline in classic “risk-off” fashion.2011-06-16T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7135&section=265OPEC members failed to agree to raise the official output quota ...2011-06-09T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=7064&section=265The combination of strong exports and slowing imports pushed the China Trade balance in April to... 2011-05-10T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6494&section=265I am back from an enjoyable few days in the wonderful state of California. The dynamics of California are so intriguing with its troublesome economy, teetering on the brink of oblivion, vilified in the media on a regular basis for its missteps.2010-11-14T12:00:00-05:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6359&section=265Take a $100 bill out of your wallet and stare at it closely – it looks the same as it always did. Well, not really, it may look the same but its purchasing power continues to diminish.2010-10-04T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6358&section=265The Friday October 1st ISM release provided investors with further evidence that FOMC will decide to expand the size of its balance sheet from $2 trillion at the two day November FOMC meeting.2010-10-03T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6350&section=2651. China’s September PMI rose from 51.7 to 53.8, above the 52.5 consensus2010-09-30T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6334&section=265The week ahead closes September. Since the credit crisis began in the 3rd Quarter of 2008, the first business day of each calendar month has been a highly anticipated day for me. 2010-09-26T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6322&section=265Velma Hart stole the show during Monday’s town hall on CNBC with a brilliant question, “Is this my new reality?”2010-09-21T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6241&section=265The equity market recovery in July has encountered multiple headwinds in August. I believe it began with Wednesday, August 11th’s import data from China (Fig 1.1).2010-08-23T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6210&section=265During the last week of July, market expectations for the upcoming China PMI began to fall, somewhat dramatically.2010-08-03T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6204&section=265Oil inventories continue to rise here in the United States; in fact, they are approaching the uncomfortably high levels of May 2009.2010-08-02T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6205&section=265For all the negative sentiment that flavored our 4th of July bar-b-ques, I would say the month of July caught most money managers by surprise.2010-08-01T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6170&section=265The S&P 500 Index aggressively declined 2.88% on Friday, July 16, quickly dropping the monthly gain for the Index to 3.315%.2010-07-19T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6169&section=265Remember the Dubai debt crisis? I believe most of us have forgotten by now about the Thanksgiving 2009 event that was predicted to roil the markets.2010-07-18T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6157&section=265Historically, the first ten calendar of January, and “sometimes” in July as well, are a time for money managers to deploy fresh investor capital into the Equities market.2010-07-13T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6155&section=265Here we go - another round of earnings is upon us. For this reporting period, I am focused on what corporations will tell us, what guidance they will give. 2010-07-12T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=6153&section=265During the week of July 12, 23 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report earnings.2010-07-11T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=5982&section=265In a 'Baseball Season of Frustration,' investors can certainly expect a bunch of strikeouts, caught stealing, and walks by the pitcher. Yesterday’s entire trading session was one lousy inning of baseball highlighted by some very wild pitches.2010-05-06T00:00:00-04:00https://www.virtus.com/advisors/commentary/blogdetail.aspx?story=5927&section=265Obviously, as I stated on the evening of Friday April 16, the most critical indicator for the week of April 19 might just be the reaction to the SEC / Goldman Sachs news as Asian markets open Sunday evening April 18.2010-04-19T00:00:00-04:00