The storm came through Hampton Roads Thursday and I had no problem with my power. Overnight, the power went out (not sure for how long) but it was working again when I got up this morning. Then around 10:30am, it blinked a couple of times and then went out for good.

I have no idea what caused the power to be out but my whole neighborhood and the surrounding area had none. The weather today was a little wet but nothing like yesterday.

We were without power until about 5:30pm. So I spent most of the day trying to entertain myself. Played the piano for a little while (thank goodness I had the piano tuned a few weeks ago), then I discovered a Logic Puzzles book that I had bought a while back and never opened. So I spent some time doing some of those.

It’s amazing, when you think about it, how much we rely on power. My newspaper wasn’t delivered today and without power, I couldn’t read it online. No way to charge my cell phone – since until this afternoon, I didn’t have a car charger – so I couldn’t keep it on the whole time. I did manage to make coffee before the power went out; otherwise, a trip to the local 7-11 or something would have been necessary. No power meant no heat (and all the wood for my fireplace was wet); thank goodness it wasn’t that cold today. I did go to the local hardware store to pick up some of those logs: I managed to get the last one in the store. Seems I wasn’t the only one unprepared for the power outage.  And given that I have a waterbed, I’m really glad the power is back on in time for it to reheat before I go to bed.

Anyway – hope y’all had a good day

It’s that time again. Bloggers from all over the Commonwealth will be coming together on Saturday, November 21, for Blogs United, a day of fun, food, and, of course, a little politics The event this year is being held at the David Student Union on the campus of  Christopher Newport University from 9am to 4pm. Part of the program will be a media panel and confirmed guests for the event include Ryan Nobles from NBC 12, Anita Kumar of The Washington Post, Julian Walker of The Virginian-Pilot, and Kimball Payne of The Daily Press. Elected officials and/or their representatives will also be in attendance.

Doors open at 8am and the $15 registration fee includes breakfast and lunch. You can register for the event here.  Hope to see you there!

For months now, Republicans in Virginia Beach have been campaigning for the seat currently occupied by now Sheriff-elect Ken Stolle. Jeff McWaters jumped out early: he’s been all over the place (I’ve run into him a number of times) and a drive through Virginia Beach prior to the November election would make anyone think he was on that ballot, as he had signs up everywhere. The other candidate, Rosemary Wilson, has been much less showy but no less energetic.

The Democrats, on the other hand, have no candidate as of this writing. Jeffrey Breit dropped his bid back in June and tells me he has no intention of getting back in. Sonny Stallings told The Washington Post that he’s not running, either.

Any Democrat would have a hard time winning this seat. The 8th Senate district is reliably Republican: while vpap hasn’t posted the numbers for November yet, it is telling to note that McCain won the district by 10 points last year. I am told that Thelma Drake also won this district last year.

So I think the only question for Democrats in the 8th is which of these Republican candidates will better represent the entire district. I’ll have more thoughts on this as time goes on.

By now, you’ve probably heard that the votes in the 21st House of Delegates district have been counted and that Republican Ron Villanueva has been declared the winner by a scant 13 votes.

I received the following statement from the campaign of Bobby Mathieson:

Yesterday, more votes got counted in the 21st District House of Delegates race because of an open and transparent process we fought to let run its course. After examination of rejected absentee and provisional ballots, seven more voices were heard in this close and important election, and the vote totals have changed.

Unfortunately, the Virginia Beach Electoral Board decided, at their own discretion, NOT to count four absentee ballots. These voters did what they needed to do – signed and dated their ballots, and had someone witness them. But the Virginia Beach Electoral Board chose to silence those voices on a technicality. That is not the way you encourage citizens to participate in the foundation of democracy – our electoral process – and it is tragic.

There are still open questions in this race, and it is in the best interest of the voters of the 21st District to seek a recount. Bobby Mathieson will continue to fight to ensure every single legally cast ballot gets counted in an open and transparent manner. As a lifelong public servant, he will always stand for good government, for transparency, and for serving the public interest. Close elections like this provide citizens the opportunity to shine a bright light on the electoral process, learn important lessons, and emerge better prepared for the next election.

Once the results are certified, Mathieson will have the opportunity to ask for a recount. Since the margin is so small, the city will have to pay for it.

The State Board of Elections website shows the difference to be 14, not 13, votes, out of a total of 15,365 votes cast.  The vote total represents less than 33% of those registered in the district.  Two things jump out at me.

First – more people participated in this election than in 2007. The total votes cast two years ago was 7,725, which was just over 18% of registered voters.  That the number of votes cast almost doubled says that people were paying attention enough to get to the polls. And not just Republicans, either. The number of votes cast for Mathieson alone this year almost matched the total votes cast two years ago.  This being a gubernatorial year, you would expect higher turnout, but I didn’t expect it to be almost double.

Second – wonder if those 33 people who cast write-in votes wished they could have a do-over?

As our nation is engaged in two wars, I was saddened to see that the front page of our local paper paid more attention to the death of a sniper than to those who serve and who have served. There was a single front page story – and it was more about the individual than veterans in general, a story that some might even find offensive.

Lots of information on PilotOnline about what’s closed on this national holiday but little about about what the holiday means. Interesting that the banks and the courts are closed, but trash pickup in Norfolk goes on as scheduled.

Senator Jim Webb gets what Veterans Day is about. Here is a short clip of his remarks today on the Senate floor.

His entire remarks are below the fold.

“This Veterans Day, we will stop as a nation to commemorate the service of all of those who have served our country throughout our history and to thank the nation’s 23.4 million veterans for the service that they have given in war and in peace, extending all the way back in terms of living veterans of World War I. We want to do our best to take care of those who have served our country, to honor that service.

“As the son of an Air Force officer, the father of a Marine, and a Marine combat veteran myself, I understand the value of having leaders in Congress who know first-hand what it’s like to be deployed, to have close family members deployed and, ultimately, to join the ranks of my fellow veterans.

“As a member of the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs and as the new chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee, I take very seriously my commitment to serving our nation’s veterans and our active duty, National Guard, Reserve service members, and their families. I believe that the extraordinary devotion to duty demonstrated by our military veterans in defending our nation’s security must be matched by a corresponding commitment to their welfare by their elected representatives in Congress.

“As we honor those who have served in uniform this Veterans Day, we should remember that they have always done what the country asks of them in every war. When they take off their uniform to return to family and friends in civilian life, it is our responsibility to act as their stewards to demonstrate the value we place on their service to our nation.”

John Allen Muhammad, known as the Beltway sniper, will be put to death tonight. The only one who can save him is Governor Tim Kaine. I will be surprised if the governor steps in.

I have to admit: I don’t hold a very strong stance on the death penalty. I find arguments on both sides to be compelling; thus, my ambivalence.  I’m pro-choice for the same reason: that the decision to pursue such a course is left in the hands of the individual is probably the best way to handle things.

My biggest concern for the death penalty – and why I lean against it – is in its application. But that is true in our courts in general. In my mind, the guy who murdered my brother didn’t get the time he deserved. Same for this guy, who starved to death one of his twin daughters.  I was in Atlanta for a time during the Wayne Williams murders. I remember the fear. But he didn’t get the death penalty.

Muhammad chose a path which will end tonight.

An IV line will be inserted into each of Muhammad’s arms.

The first of three chemicals will render him unconscious.

The second will stop his breathing.

The third will stop his heart.

I guess we place a different value on different lives.

UPDATE: Governor Kaine has declined to intervene in the execution.

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The Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis released a report (pdf) this morning which assesses the cost of Virginia’s tax expenditures. Calling it a $2.5 billion drain on revenue, the Institute says that these expenditures – tax exemptions, exclusions, deferrals, credits, or preferential rates in the tax code – are implemented and then forgotten.

In a conference call earlier today, Institute Executive Director Michael Cassidy pointed out that Gov.-Elect Bob McDonnell, like his opponent, Creigh Deeds, called for better performance management. One of the recommendations of the report is to regularly publish “a tax expenditure report that is accessible to the public, broad in scope with detailed information, and with an analysis of whether the programs are meeting stated goals.”

The Institute takes no position on the relative merits of the various tax expenditures, the largest of which is $950 million for car tax relief. What it is attempting to do is point out that these items should face the same scrutiny as other budget expenditures.

I think that’s a pretty good idea.

The emails from Saturday night’s votes are flowing into my inbox. Most of them are congratulatory ones – for Congressman Bobby Scott (D-3rd), Congressman Tom Perriello (D-5th), Congressman Jim Moran (D-8th) and Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-11th) – thanking them for their support of healthcare reform.

Some of them are critical of my representative, Congressman Glenn Nye (D-2nd), who voted against the reform. In an email to constituents before Saturday’s vote, Nye informed us of his intention to vote no and his reasons for it.  (An expanded version of the email can be viewed here.) At the end of the day, Nye voted against the bill because it wasn’t the “right” bill.

To quote one of my Twitter buds: “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.”

If I weren’t facing a 32% increase in my own health insurance premiums, if others weren’t facing similar increases, then maybe waiting for a perfect bill would be the answer. But it isn’t.

I understand that Nye is in a tough district. But so is Rep. Perriello, who voted for the bill. The contrasts between these two couldn’t be more stark. Perriello held numerous town hall meetings – I believe he held more meetings than anyone else – on health care while Nye held small meetings, generally in front of selected audiences. Both men may very well be one-termers, but for different reasons. Perriello is likely to suffer the backlash from his Republican constituents, but his Democratic supporters are energized enough to make the vote a close one.

Nye, on the other hand, may have just cast the vote that was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. The enthusiasm gap that we witnessed last week is very likely to continue in 2010 in the 2nd CD. While Nye has been pandering to conservative voters (and putting a quote from the president of the NFIB on your website is serious pandering), he hasn’t as much as thrown a bone to his Democratic supporters – you know, the folks who were out there campaigning on his behalf – knocking the doors and making the phone calls.  His answer that he votes with the Democrats X% of the time rings hollow: on the issues that matters, such as health care, he doesn’t.

Would we have been any worse off with Thelma Drake as our representative? Probably not. And this is probably the biggest point that Nye misses: we voted for change, not more of the same. I knew, the first time I heard him debate Drake, that this wasn’t the guy to bring change. At that debate, which was hosted by the Central Business District Association of Virginia Beach and, unfortunately, the only one I didn’t videotape, I heard the people behind me whispering that he agreed with nearly everything Drake said. And he did, disagreeing with her only on Iraq. I recall being less than amused to hear him say that he didn’t believe we should roll back the Bush tax cuts.

Nye got elected by riding a wave of anti-incumbent fervor. The same will not be true in 2010. Most of those Republicans he’s pandering to are going back home. Despite all of their kudos to Nye for his votes, they will be casting their votes for the Republican candidate, likely Scott Rigell. They, like us, are obsessed with the number of party members, not whether those members embrace the party platform.

No wonder so many voters stay at home. Look at the choices we get.

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In my earlier post, I mentioned some consultants who should never work in politics again. I’m not generally one to name names, but since he’s been outed, David Petts is one of those guys.

Told by Petts that his convincing primary win positioned him well with the Democratic base – core Democrats, northern Virginians and African-Americans – Deeds was advised: “The battleground now appears to be for independents outside the DC media market.”

This is what led to the misguided plan to ignore the base, a mistake of epic proportions and probably the largest contributor to the size of the loss. Petts should have known better – it’s not the first time he’s worked in Virginia politics. He should have recognized that the voters in a primary are not the same group in the general and the need to reach out to base voters who didn’t vote in the primary was critical.

But, to be honest, I agreed with Petts’ assessment of the possible need for the Democratic nominee to distance himself from Obama and said so in this post.  But the presence of the OFA organizers made that near impossible.

Petts says now that the campaign lost its grip on northern Virginia over the summer, when Democrats nationally took a hit in part as a result of the healthcare debate and raucous town halls.

That’s why I asked the DNC to remove those organizers here. Send them to one of the 48 states that didn’t have a gubernatorial election. Nationalizing this election was about the worst thing that could happen to Democrats in Virginia. But even with them here, the campaign should have adjusted its strategy and gone after voters in NoVA. That it didn’t happen is indicative of how much faith the campaign put into that June memo.

There’s a whole lot of blame to go around. And some of it should rightly be placed on Petts.

Get’em John

UPDATE: The video has been removed. Below the fold is a transcript that I’ve seen in a number of places around the internet.

Probably my all-time favorite food

What Fall Fruit or Vegetable Are You Most Like?

The Virginian-Pilot political blog posted a blurb yesterday about a potential challenger for Congressman Bobby Scott (D-3rd).  Seems the original tip came from United Conservatives that Coby Dillard, who worked on the McDonnell for Governor campaign as Deputy Coalition Director (Veterans/African Americans), is considering a run. Dillard runs a blog called The Dillard Doctrine and, according to a statement posted there, is deferring “any questions or further comments “on his next move “until a later time.”

A word of warning to young Mr. Dillard: take a look at the election results from 2004, the last time Scott had a challenger. That year, Scott beat the Republican Party’s favorite black conservative Winsome Sears by a whopping 69% to 31%. Now, take a look at the race in the 4th CD. Randy Forbes’ underfunded, unsupported (by most of the Democratic Party machinery) challenger got 35% of the vote.  Recall if you will that 2004 was a presidential election year. Bush won Virginia that year – but not the 3rd CD. In fact, Bush only got 33% of the vote in the 3rd. He won the 4th (and I use the 4th as a comparison because there is a significant number of black voters in the 4th) by roughly 14%.

Then there’s Tuesday’s results. Bob McDonnell may have won Virginia, but he didn’t win the 3rd. McDonnell only garnered 35% of the vote in this district.

So while I would never tell someone not to run,  I would encourage young Mr. Dillard to look hard at the reality of the district – once Tuesday’s euphoria wears off – and recognize what an uphill battle it will be.

I’ve no doubts that Rep. Scott is up for the challenge

The map to the left, which I got from The Washington Post, pretty much says it all: yesterday was a bloodbath. While the map only shows the gubernatorial race, the other two statewide races maps don’t look much different. The added loss of a net of six House of Delegates seats is a bitter pill.

A successful campaign requires time, money and people. Tuesday, the Republicans had all three, while the Democrats didn’t.

Time

When I think of the element of time, I generally think of it as the candidate and the campaign being engaged. We’ve all seen lazy candidates: the ones who won’t make the phone calls, the ones who won’t knock the doors, the ones who won’t go out in the community. Rare is the case where a lazy candidate wins. I don’t think any of our statewide candidates were lazy.

But there is also the issue of how the candidate and the campaign uses their time. To me, this is where the statewide candidates and campaigns – especially the Coordinated Campaign – screwed up. A few issues come to mind.

First, you have to go where the voters are. Whoever came up with “Deeds Country” should be never be allowed to work in Virginia politics again. The time that took away from campaigning in the so-called “urban crescent” – NoVA, Richmond, and Hampton Roads – was simply too crucial.  But he wasn’t the only statewide candidate to not pay attention to the urban crescent. Steve Shannon was completely invisible in Hampton Roads – except when he was down here raising money. Even Jody Wagner didn’t spend much time in Hampton Roads. Yes, I know it’s a big state and you can’t be everywhere. But to ignore being visible where the voters are is simply inexcusable.

Which brings me to a second point: the choice of which voters to spend time on. Not once did I receive a phone call from the Norfolk Coordinated Campaign asking me to volunteer. Not once did I receive a knock on my door asking for my vote. Nothing. If I weren’t an engaged voter, I wouldn’t have even known who the candidates were! True story: I attended the New Journal & Guide 109th anniversary celebration last Sunday. When Deeds, Wagner and Shannon, accompanied by Congressman Bobby Scott, entered the room, the guy sitting next to me leaned over and asked: “Who are those people?” I guess the guy was like me: a frequent voter who was completely ignored by the campaigns.

Money

During the primary, we were told that, regardless of the nominee, he would have the money necessary to compete. I never bought that argument, given the economic conditions. So the Democratic candidates blew a pile of money fighting each other in a primary that didn’t have to happen!

Over two years ago, in September 2007, I was at Mark Warner’s pig roast and both Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds were there. That day, they both told me they were in the race for governor. I remember asking Creigh if I was going to have to mediate a resolution to the this, and he said that I might have to. I remember thinking that surely our party leaders – Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Dickie Cranwell – were not going to let this happen. I was wrong – and my biggest regret is not trying to get them all to go off and talk that day. Almost a year later, just before the National Convention, I approached Kaine about it and begged him to do something.  Within a week, we were in Denver. Talking to some of the party leaders, I found their support for either Brian or Creigh lacking. So it should be no surprise that Terry McAuliffe, sensing an opening, decided to jump in the race.

$15.8 million later, we had a nominee.

But that wasn’t all of it.

How many ads did you see from the Democratic Governors’ Association after the primary? While the Republican counterpart was running ads all over the state – at least until they decided to focus on Northern Virginia, where they, combined with McDonnell’s own resources, managed to outspend the Deeds campaign by at least 2.5:1 – the DGA was dark. For the most part, they blew their wad in the primary. It was painfully obvious that they thought McAuliffe was going to win, especially with the endorsement of him by DGA chair Brian Schweitzer. If Virginia Democratic leaders were unwilling to pick a horse in the race, I think it would have been prudent for the DGA to do the same. That $3 million they spent would have come in handy.

And then we have the Democratic National Committee. Yes, they came through with $3 million for Deeds plus other money for the Coordinated Campaign. But early money is better than late money. And the DNC money was late. Had they cut a bigger check to the Deeds campaign after the primary, perhaps Deeds wouldn’t have been on lockdown for two months raising money.

The truth is the statewide campaigns never had the money they needed, not for TV, not for radio and certainly not for mail. I didn’t receive a single piece of mail from any of the statewide campaigns. That the Republicans didn’t mail to me is no surprise: after all, there was no chance they were getting my vote so why waste the money. That the Democrats didn’t shows just how they had to husband their resources. I understand that the reason Deeds didn’t attend the Virginia Beach NAACP dinner or buy a table was because there simply was no money to do so. The same thing for other local activities.

People

People are probably the most critical component of a campaign. They consist of the campaign staff, the volunteers and the voters. While money drives a lot of this, people can make up for the lack of money. But in 2009, we saw this part of the statewide campaigns simply fail to deliver.

Deeds won the primary with a ragtag army of true believers. Unfortunately for him and us, those folks were replaced with high-priced consultants who had no clue about how to win a race in Virginia. Where was Deeds’ message? In 2005, everyone knew about Kaine’s pre-K proposal. What was Deeds’ signature issue? If he had one, it certainly wasn’t communicated. That the consultant stayed on the thesis far longer than they should have tells you just how out of touch with Virginia they were. I know that some of the long-time Democrats who were on the Deeds team told them to get off of it but they wouldn’t listen. My question remains: if the thesis hadn’t been uncovered, what was Deeds planning to run on?

I’ve yet to receive an answer.

When Bill Bolling started hitting Jody Wagner on her “support” for tax increases, I kept waiting for her to say that she never voted for any tax increases. Perhaps she was afraid for people to know she had never held elected office before but it was like pulling teeth for her to say it. Guess the consultants told her not to.

Whoever told Steve Shannon to characterize Cuccinelli’s call for a special session a “publicity stunt” ought to be shot. Whoever told him to go after Cooch on his refusal to to say anything about the Hamilton situation ought to be quartered. And whoever told him to lay low and not run an active campaign ought to be tarred and feathered.

The consultant class fleeced the Virginia candidates again.

They were the ones who came up with the cockamamie targeting that left out the Democratic base. They were the ones to spin their candidates to the point that they didn’t even know what to say. They were the ones who chose to ignore what Virginia was telling them: in every poll, Virginia voters wanted to talk about the economy and about jobs. They were the ones who wanted to talk about the thesis. Even though they said they didn’t want to talk about national issues, they never prepped their candidate on how to answer those questions in a way that wouldn’t anger what little base was paying attention to the race.

The “enthusiasm gap” was their own creation.

And the DNC was complicit in this. I wrote awhile ago about the dismantling of the 50-state program. I was assured that the program was still there, that the resources were still there and that they would be employed for this campaign. Unless I am mistaken, that never happened. I warned them about nationalizing this election, by bringing the OFA people here to work on health care. I asked them to take those organizers out of here and send them to a state where there was no election. This was before the national backlash against healthcare had reached its peak.

It didn’t happen.

I was told that while the ground game would be a little late in getting started (as if somehow there wasn’t going to be a Democratic nominee for governor), it would be there.

A few weeks ago – on October 15, to be exact – I got an email forwarded to me from one of the folks who is active in the local OFA group. In it, the person said that the OFA was getting off of health care and going to work on the Deeds campaign.

19 days before the election. Last weekend, I got a couple of calls from them asking me to volunteer.

The DPVA was of little help. In truth, though, I don’t put nearly as much blame on the DPVA as others do. The DPVA has a very small staff of folks and when a couple of them left to work on the Deeds campaign, they took their experience with them. The problem with the DPVA is more of an organizational one, and that’s a post for another day. But the DPVA does oversee the Coordinated Campaign. Staffed with mostly out-of-state folks, they never brought in the locals to help.

Virginia’s every-year election cycle is draining. After last year’s historic election, a lot of folks I knew simply took time off. I talked to one such person a couple of weeks ago, who had no idea how desperate the campaigns were for volunteers. No one had called him, either.

The one big failure I see that the DPVA made goes all the way back to June. I said it at the time: the so-called “Unity Rally” was anything but. This allowed the tensions that the primary created to fester – and made it easy for people to simply disappear. I ran into one volunteer at the Norfolk Obama rally that I hadn’t seen since the primary. She had worked hard for Obama last year and through the primary for McAuliffe but had done nothing since. We cannot win races by having good volunteers disappear.

As for the voters – well, I really can’t find any excuse for them. Yes, the campaigns made it hard. There was a clear difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates and their respective visions for Virginia. There was no excuse to not have your voice heard.

~

At the end of the day, Democrats were facing an uphill battle this year. I doubt if any of our candidates for governor could have won in this environment. But the losses we suffered are reflective of how poorly the candidates and the campaigns took care of time, money and people.

Once again, I find myself another bright blue dot in a really red state.

The work begins again.

The margin was greater than I expected, the result being the loss the number of House seats at the top of the range I anticipated. My congratulations to Gov-elect Bo McDonnell, LG Bill Bolling, and AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli.

My condolences to Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon.

Congratulations to new Democratic House members Luke Torian in the 52nd district and Robin Abbott in the 93rd district.

Special condolences to the Democratic members of the House of Delegates who lost their seats Tuesday:

• Dan Bowling (3rd)
• Shannon Valentine (23rd)
• Dave Poisson (32nd)
• Margi Vanderhye (34th)
• Paul Nichols (51st)
• Chuck Caputo (67th)
• Joe Bouchard (83rd)

(As of this writing, an 8th seat – Bobby Mathieson (21st) – is behind his Republican challenger by 16 votes, but that race will go to a recount.)

I’ll have my thoughts on the 2009 election up later.

EDIT: Obviously, there are other Democrats – even first timers – who won yesterday. My intention was to congratulate the Democrats who won the seats previously held by Republicans.

The polls are open from 6am to 7pm. If you are unsure of your voting place, you can check it here.

Unlike prior elections, I will be casting my ballot at the polls today. I will be voting for the people who most closely represent my best interests, even though there are issues on which we disagree.

For governor : Creigh Deeds

For lieutenant governor: Jody Wagner

For attorney general: Steve Shannon

I live in the 87th House District, so I’ll be voting for Paula Miller. If I lived in another local district, I’d vote for:

• 21st – Bobby Mathieson
• 64th – Bill Barlow
• 80th – Matthew James
• 82nd – Peter Schmidt
• 83rd – Joe Bouchard
• 89th – Kenny Alexander
• 90th – Algie Howell
• 91st – Gordon Helsel
• 93rd – Robin Abbott
• 94th – Gary West
• 100th – Lynwood Lewis

We also have four constitutional offices on the ballot in Norfolk, two of which are unopposed and one who has only nominal competition. In that race, I will be voting for Bob McCabe, the incumbent sheriff. The fourth race – which, incidentally, the Virginian-Pilot never got around to endorsing in – is the one for Commissioner of the Revenue. I can’t, in good conscience for reasons I have explained previously, vote for the Democratic candidate. I will be casting my ballot for the independent candidate, Doug Knack.

The only race outside of Norfolk that I have followed closely enough to make a recommendation on is that of sheriff in Virginia Beach. If I lived in that city, I would cast my ballot for John Bell.

Just opened up my premium increase notice from Anthem. Mind you, I’ve got a sizable deductible with a health savings account. With virtually no costs to my insurance company this year (heck – I’ve not met my deductible yet – only $803 out of pocket), I’m facing a 32% increase in my premium.

I saw this article reprinted in our paper the other day.  Other than similar ages and overall health, I don’t have much in common with this guy: he’s a Republican, I’m a Democrat. He’s been a federal employee, I’m self-employed. But we agree on one thing: our health care system is broken.

And at the rate things are going, I’m going to be broke along with it.

While the conversation in this gubernatorial election has been focused on transportation and social issues, little attention has been paid to the looming budget deficit that the new governor is likely to face. According to a Virginian-Pilot article today, the budget deficit is expected to be $1 billion – and could be as high as $3 billion.

In interviews, both appeared taken aback at the thought of a billion-plus hole in the budget. Yet each stuck to the fiscal plan he’s touted during the campaign.

[...]

Both candidates’ plans rest on a more optimistic view of the state’s finances than is held by many budget analysts.

That none of the discussion has focused on how to deal with the lingering effects of the economic problems our country has faced is truly sad. But then why should it? After all, it’s not like Virginians get the opportunity to hold a governor to the promises he made on the campaign trail.

EDIT: I left out a pretty important quote from the story:

John Taylor, president of Tertium Quids, a free-market advocacy group, said given the depth of the budget problems, some sort of tax increase may be coming no matter who wins on Tuesday.

“I would be surprised to see any governor in Virginia over the next four years not support a spending increase,” he said.

Yes, Virginia. Tax increases are in our future. Get used to the idea.

In honor of the Redskins’ bye week (wait for the image to change)

The original pdf is here. h/t to Maria for emailing it to me.

The front page, below the fold story in Saturday’s Virginian-Pilot is a classic example of the inside baseball that Norfolk politics has become. Here we have two ticketmates – the Democratic candidates for Commissioner of the Revenue and Treasurer – engaging in what amounts to a he said/she said argument. At the end of the day, once again, it is the voters that lose.

Go read the story and then follow me below the fold.

Back in 2005, when I ran for treasurer, one of the things that I wanted to do was to offer payment plans for taxes. The signs of the impending economic recession were all there. It just made sense to me to make it easier for the citizens to pay their taxes and for the city to collect as much money as possible. (That was also one of the reasons why I wanted to offer credit card payments – and not just in the office between the hours of 8:30am and 4:30pm.) It wasn’t an original idea – in fact, it was already in place in other localities. But the two people arguing about this now – along with their cronies – publicly ridiculed the idea.

“I’m a firm believer that the easier you make it for people to pay their taxes, the better off we’re going to be as a city,” she [Sharon McDonald] said. “I’d love to be able to see everyone have the option of having a payment plan.

“That’s obviously not my decision. That’s the treasurer’s decision.”

My, what a difference a few years makes. But the real kicker is that the payment plans had been going on for some time – just not for the average taxpayer. The plans are only available to the few. The rest of the folks – pay on time or pay late with a penalty.

Despite his willingness to throw McDonald under the bus, treasurer Tom Moss is not without fault here. He took office in January 2002 but according to the article, didn’t discover the payment arrangements until this past July. And even now, his office can only locate four of the supposed 20 businesses in Norfolk that have been granted special dispensation. If that’s not incompetence, then I guess I don’t know what incompetence is.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Norfolk is among the last places in Virginia where the Byrd machine is alive and well.  It’s not about the citizens – it’s about the political power of a few. One has to look no further than the nomination process to see how it really works. And the Republicans are no help: they are so afraid of losing that they don’t even bother to field candidates.

So the citizens of Norfolk lose out. If we get competent leadership, it’s more of a fluke than anything else. Because along with political power comes arrogance. That old saying of “power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely” is a pretty good description of the way things are done here. The only thing that changes is who has the power.

There is a glimmer of hope, though. Heck, a few years ago, this story would have never been printed.  It would have remained one of those markers that got cashed in down the road for something else.  The fourth estate is coming into its own here, and not just on the editorial side. What is unfortunate is that the shrinking newspaper readership is occurring at the same time. Fewer and fewer rely on the newspaper for their information, and the interest in local politics suffers as the result. Sorry, but CNN or FOX don’t care about whether Norfolk is allowing a few companies to benefit from cozy relationships with the elected folks. Thirty-second TV ads tell the time-starved citizen all that they need to know about candidates – or so they think.

We Norfolk voters need to exercise our power – by voting against those who don’t serve our interests. Take a good look at the independent candidate for Commissioner of the Revenue, Doug Knack. If you think he will serve us better, then cast your vote for him. As for treasurer – since there is no other name on the ballot, consider writing someone else’s in.

Your vote, your voice. Use it.

Recently, the two candidates for sheriff in Virginia Beach were interviewed on WAVY TV 10.

Go John Bell!

Ron Villanueva wants the residents of District 21 to vote for him – in New Jersey! (click to enlarge)

Ha! And no, I didn’t make this up. You can see it for yourself here. (UPDATE: Not any more. The state info has been corrected on the website at that link.)

To voters in the Virginia 21st – vote Bobby Mathieson

So says The Washington Post editorial board.

Putting aside what Mr. Cuccinelli has to say about homosexuals when he’s not trying so hard to be polite, let’s call his comments what they are: bigotry. Bigotry is as pernicious today, applied to homosexuals, as it was a century ago or less, when immigrants and minorities were its main victims. And it is just as familiar. Appeals to “natural law” and “intrinsic” rights and wrongs were the usual cliches deployed to justify the old-time religion of hatred then directed at African Americans, Jews, Italians, Irish and other immigrants.

The Post agrees with The Virginian-Pilot: election of Ken Cuccinelli would be an embarrassment to Virginia.

Do you part to make sure that doesn’t happen.  Vote Steve Shannon for Attorney General.

UPDATE: New Shannon ad is up. I saw it on TV just a few minutes ago.

The LBGT community is coming together this Monday, November 2, from 6-8pm to phone bank for Delegates Bobby Mathieson and Joe Bouchard. The event will be held at the Coordinated Campaign Headquarters located at 5101 Cleveland St., 3^rd Floor.

Of course, you don’t have to be LBGT to participate. Come on out and help propel Joe and Bobby to a win on Tuesday!

In the spirit of Halloween, how about this quiz?

A number of new videos in the last couple of days for Democratic candidates.

From Creigh Deeds:

From Jody Wagner:

From Steve Shannon:

There are so many localities in this region with local races, mainly constitutional officers, that I can’t begin to keep up. There are a couple of Virginia Beach races that I’ve been aware of – sheriff and Commonwealth’s attorney – but that’s about it. As it turns out, I was a little late in getting to these local races, and Thursday’s Virginian-Pilot had the endorsements in which I would have predicted. That I would have chosen the same that they endorsed – Ken Stolle for Sheriff and Harvey Bryant for Commonwealth’s attorney – cannot, of course, be substantiated. (And for those keeping track at home, note that both of these are Republicans.)

Here in Norfolk, we only have two contested races. One – for sheriff – is a no-brainer and the Pilot endorsed incumbent Bob McCabe.

The other race that is contested is that of the Commissioner of the Revenue. Incumbent Democrat Sharon McDonald is being challenged by Independent Doug Knack.  The endorsement in this race will be a test for this new editorial board.

It would be easy for the board to fall back on their standard of preferring the incumbent and the why fire/why hire rule. To do so, though, requires that the board ignore the troubling signs that the recent tax commissioner ruling highlighted. Add to that the bullying I mentioned in this post plus the possibility of other rumored story being published before the paper endorses (which seems unlikely at this point), there will be even more food for thought. (UPDATE: The story was published here.)

I have to admit that I’m too close to this situation to see clearly what the Pilot may do. The current Commissioner was the only elected Democrat to openly and notoriously oppose my candidacy in 2005.  I think I’ve been pretty clear – albeit in other circumstances – what I think of such behavior. But political reasons such as this should have no bearing on the endorsement.

My gut tells me that the Pilot will punt and not endorse in this race. And for challenger Doug Knack, that is a victory.

The healthcare bills as introduced in the House of Representatives are now available online in pdf format. H.R. 3962 – Affordable Health Care for America Act – is available  here and H.R. 3961 – Medicare Physician Payment Reform Act of 2009 – is available here.

While I consider healthcare a real priority – as any small business owner should – I won’t get to these bills until after Tuesday. I firmly believe that the closer government is to me, the more it affects me. So my focus is fixed on Tuesday’s elections.

Yeah, I stole that headline from Norman Leahy.

Placing a higher value on incumbency than on ethics, the Daily Press and the Virginia Gazette have both endorsed Del. Phil Hamilton for re-election.

In other words, he may be a crook but he’s our crook.

Honestly, I’m not surprised. As a senior member of the majority party – like Virginia Beach’s Bob Purkey – there is no way that a local newspaper is going to endorse against them. The bar of incumbency is simply too high for the papers to walk away from. Their position that the perks of incumbency are so important to the overall distribution of resources to our area that they are unwilling to go against it – even in the face of unethical behavior.

We, the voters, have the power to do what the newspapers cannot: vote. And in this case, vote Robin Abbott.

UPDATE: ICYMI CNU President Paul Trible sent out fundraising letters on behalf of Hamilton using university letterhead. Do these people not understand ethics at all?

Ken Cuccinelli has run the most disciplined campaign of all the candidates, keeping teh crazy – his own and that of his supporters – under wraps. If you don’t follow politics closely – and let’s face it, few do – then you’d have no idea just how far out he is. On the surface, he’s a good looking, likable guy.

The quote above, though, comes from David Lampo, Vice President of the Log Cabin Republican Club of Virginia, in an op-ed piece published on the Augusta Free Press.

No real libertarian has a record (like Mr. Cuccinelli does) of

• Opposition to repealing the state sodomy law, even though it was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court
• Opposition to allowing private companies to offer health and life insurance benefits to domestic partners of their employees
• Opposition to prohibiting employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation for state and local government employees
• Opposition to allowing local governments to choose what benefits they give their local employees
• Opposition to any kind of legal protections for gay and lesbian couples, even the limited rights embodied in domestic partnerships or civil unions
• Support for banning gay/straight alliances in public high schools
• Support for state funding of abstinence programs

This comes on the heels of a statement issued earlier Wednesday, a copy of which was sent to the Washington Post.

“That Mr. Cuccinelli would make such incendiary and prejudicial remarks as a candidate for the state’s highest legal office is truly frightening, and we call on him to apologize for injecting his personal and hateful opinions into this race,” said David Lampo, vice president of the Log Cabin Republican Club of Virginia. “The overwhelming majority of Virginia voters, 90 percent according to Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, support a policy of employment nondiscrimination for state employees. We hope voters evaluate very carefully a candidate who intends to let his personal beliefs and prejudices guide his decision making as Attorney General.”

Prompting this outrage from a member of his own party was a statement Cuccinelli made to The Virginian-Pilot and which was included in the paper’s editorial:

He [Cuccinelli] declined to commit to a nondiscrimination policy against gays and lesbians observed by former Attorney General Bob McDonnell: “ My view is that homosexual acts, not homosexuality, but homosexual acts are wrong. They’re intrinsically wrong. And I think in a natural law based country it’s appropriate to have policies that reflect that. … They don’t comport with natural law. I happen to think that it represents (to put it politely; I need my thesaurus to be polite) behavior that is not healthy to an individual and in aggregate is not healthy to society.”

Just yesterday, I was talking to a Republican friend of mine who knew nothing about Cooch and had met him at a local meet-and-greet. He hadn’t seen the Pilot editorial but at my urging, was going to take a look at it.

(Rant on: my friend’s a pretty smart fellow. But he knew more about the candidates in the NY-23 race than he knew about the candidates in Virginia! When I talked to him about redistricting, he had little clue about what it meant. But then we talked about his own House representative and he complained about his rep being primarily in the adjoining city of Portsmouth. I explained to him how that came about: Republican redistricting in 2001 to get rid of his previous representative. So much so that representative no longer even had a district. All of a sudden, redistricting made sense to him. If the smart folks aren’t paying attention to our politics, heaven helps us all. /rant)

Wednesday, Democratic AG candidate Steve Shannon sent a letter to Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell, asking that Cuccinelli recant the position he laid out to the Pilot editorial board. I doubt McDonnell will do so, for two reasons.

One – despite McDonnell has said that he doesn’t believe in discrimination against gays and lesbians, as this Pilot editorial mentioned, McDonnell has no intention of renewing Executive Order #1, either.

He has promised to end an executive order prohibiting employment discrimination based on sexual orientation within the state work force.

And two – McDonnell knows that Cuccinelli supporters will help drive his own numbers up.

The record on Cuccinelli is clear:

• The Washington Post cautions that Cuccinelli “peddles outmoded, half-baked and prejudicial theories about homosexuals.”
• The Roanoke Times says “Cuccinelli is a crusader against a woman’s right to choose, gay rights, workers and any effort to confront climate change.”
• And, of course, the Virginian-Pilot points out that “Cuccinelli’s election would bring embarrassment to Virginia, instability to the state’s law firm and untold harm to the long list of people who don’t fit his personal definition of morality.”

For once I agree with the Log Cabin Republicans: the future of our party demands that Cuccinelli be defeated. Actually, the future of Virginia demands that he be defeated.

Elect Steve Shannon.

Click to enlarge. Print out and distribute.

On the Peninsula

Hampton Meet & Greet
5pm
YH Thomas Youth Center
1300 Thomas St
Hampton, VA

Newport News Event
6pm
Newport News Campaign Office
11838 Cannon Blvd, Suite 100

About 350 people gathered at the Greenbrier Marriot Tuesday evening for a fundraiser for Del. Lionell Spruill, Sr.

Kicking things off was 3rd district Congressman Bobby Scott. The Congressman, who had appeared earlier in the day at the Obama/Deeds rally, was unable to stay for dinner.

Following him was Sheriff John Newhart, a long-time friend of Del. Spruill’s and a candidate for re-election in November. Acting as MC for the event was Norfolk Del. Kenny Alexander, a picture of whom – surprisingly enough – I didn’t get. Although the event was not a roast this year, Alexander – and others – got in some good-natured ribbing of Spruill.

The next speaker was LG candidate Jody Wagner, who had also attended the earlier Obama rally.

Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds was up next.  Those in attendance gave him a standing ovation when he was introduced.

After dinner, Del. Spruill was presented with an award from the VEA for all of his hard work on behalf of public education.

Del. Spruill then took a few moments to thank everyone there. He also introduced our speaker for the evening, Rev. Dwight C. Jones, currently the mayor of Richmond. Jones is a former member of the House of Delegates – he and Spruill actually entered the House in the same class – and was also the chairman of the Legislative Black Caucus, a position now held by Del. Alexander.

You know if you put a minister behind a podium, you’re going to get a sermon Tuesday evening was no different. By the time he finished, Jones had the assembled group on their feet, just like a Sunday morning service.

A great time was had by all. Kudos to Susan Rowland, chief of staff for Del. Spruill, for pulling off another terrific event.

(Ross Taylor / The Virginian-Pilot)

The line snaked around the building when I arrived at the ODU Ted Constant Center for the rally with Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds and President Barack Obama. Inside, the facility was already filling up.

Although the arena seats 7,319, the area behind the stage was curtained off. Approximately one-half of the arena floor, which can be used to boost seating to 10,000, was occupied by rally attendees with guaranteed admissions tickets, like those I gave away on this blog. The remainder of the floor was occupied by the press, with one row of press seating, then the risers for the cameras, followed by a couple of other rows for the press. The estimates of attendance – between 4,700 and 5,900 – sound about right.

There were two pre-rally receptions: one with the president for high-dollar donors and another with the governor for more modest donations. Both of those receptions were scheduled to take place between 3 and 4pm and came with preferred seating to the right side of the stage (looking forward). The president arrived early, so the initial schedule – pre-progam was to begin at 3:50pm and the rally at 4:55pm – was moved up. In fact, when the program began, the people attending the receptions weren’t even in their seats.

Levar Stoney, former DPVA executive director, now Deeds’ political director, acted as MC for the event. When he announced the first speaker, hesitating after the word “president,” the crowd went wild. He was introducing, of course, ODU President John Broderick.  In fairly quick succession, we heard from AG candidate Steve Shannon,  LG candidate Jody Wagner and Gov. Tim Kaine. Probably the funniest moment of the affair was when the woman singing the National Anthem messed up the words! Perhaps she was nervous but man – she was making up the words as she went along. Not quite the same as Ella Fitzgerald, but still.

Deeds gave a better version of his stump speech than I’ve heard before. He seemed more relaxed, which is a good thing. But the crowd was there for Obama and went wild when the president took the stage. (Both the remarks of Deeds and Obama, as prepared, are available here.)

Do I wish this rally had taken place a few weeks ago? You betcha I talked to some folks afterwards that hadn’t felt any connection to the race until yesterday. One person with whom I spoke had worked tirelessly for Terry McAuliffe in the primary but had done nothing since. (Yeah – I’m looking back at the “unity” rally that wasn’t.)  The good news is that some folks who weren’t planning to vote Tuesday will do so. The question remains whether enough of them will.

~

One more note: where in the heck were Mark Warner, Jim Webb and Glenn Nye?

Wednesday’s Virginian-Pilot contained the endorsements of the rest of the South Hampton Roads endorsements. As it turns out, they did issue an endorsement in the 64th. Counting that race – on which I offered my opinion in the comments on this post – I was five out of six in predicting this batch. The only race I missed was the 90th, in which they endorsed incumbent Democrat Algie Howell.

I found it interesting that the Pilot mentioned the challengers by name in only two of the six races. My guess is that the others were so unimpressive that they barely warranted acknowledgment.

~

Overall on House races, I’m 8 for 9.   Somehow, I think it’s easier to predict the Pilot than it is to predict the winners

Ron Villaneuva, the Republican candidate in the 21st district, has decided to attack Democratic Delegate Bobby Mathieson for a vote on a failed bill that would have allowed certain nonviolent felons to work on school property. The quote you see to the left comes from a mail piece that Villanueva has put out.

How Ron may have voted on that legislation we will never know. But we do know that he testified as a character witness on behalf of a convicted felon, and he wanted the man – who pleaded guilty to abduction and attempted rape – to be set free.  He wanted a violent felon among us.

The case came to light back in 2006, when one of Villaneuva’s opponents, French Donald Mackes, Jr., called him “soft on crime.” The man in question was Anthony Fradillada, who is a convicted sex offender.

Mackes, at the request of the victim, sent a letter to The Virginian-Pilot. An article from April 7, 2006 states:

“According to the crime victim, in court during April 2004, Villanueva testified that the Filipino community would support Fradillada and that Fradillada did not need to serve jail time for his crimes against her,” Mackes’ letter states.

[...]

In an interview Thursday, the victim confirmed that she had sent e-mails about the case to the candidates …

“I just think the public needs to know the truth about a representative of the community,” she said. “I think it could affect the election and maybe it should. Maybe he shouldn’t represent us again.”

Villanueva defended his involvement in the case,  and touted the endorsement of – surprise – Sheriff Paul Lanteigne in responding. And he denied that his testimony included the comment that Fradillada, a family friend and member of his church, should not receive jail time.

“I spoke on behalf of him getting proper treatment and help while he was incarcerated,” Villanueva said. “I said he needed to receive counseling. The sentence was just. This kid needed some help. I didn’t condone what he did.”

The newspaper let Villanueva off the hook by not checking what he remembered he said versus what he did say. The transcript of his testimony at the sentencing hearing tells a different story (emphasis mine).

I’m here today to speak on his behalf. You know, it’s unfortunate the circumstances that we’re here for. I believe Anthony has done his time. He’s very redeemable, and we need to give folks like him another opportunity, a second chance so that he can prove himself and be the person that he was always meant to be, a good upstanding citizen.

Done his time? Really? According to the Virginia Courts Case Information, Fradillada commited the crime on January 7, 2003. The record shows that he was arrested the next day; however, what it doesn’t show was whether he was incarcerated at that time or granted bail. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that he was jailed without bond. It appears that he pleaded guilty on January 20, 2004. The sentencing hearing, in which Villaneuva testified, was held three months later, on April 20, 2004.

So had he been in jail the whole time, it would have been a little over 16 months. And Villanueva thought that was enough time for a man who pleaded guilty to abduction and attempted rape? As a woman, I’m outraged. Fortunately, the court saw fit to sentence Fradillada to 14 years in prison – 7 years each on the two charges – although it suspended nine years. The suspended part of the sentence was predicated upon Fradillada being on good behavior for 14 years, supervised probation upon his release from prison, payment of court costs, completion of the After Care Program and no contact with the victim or her family.

(Oh – and there’s nothing in the testimony about Fradillada receiving counseling or any other kind of treatment, although Villaneuva did mention that he was Fradillada’s mentor. As for him being a kid, the offender detail linked above shows that Fradillada is now 32 years old. Six years ago when the crime was committed, he was 26 – hardly a kid.)

I’m told that Fradillada was released in 2007, which means, if he was in prison from January 2003, he served less than the five years to which he was sentenced. He is, however, on probation and lives in Chesapeake. He works in both Virginia Beach and Norfolk.

Ron Villaneuva supported the early release of a violent felon – a sex offender, no less – into our community.  Bobby Mathieson, a 27 year veteran of the Virginia Beach Police, worked to put guys like Fradillada in jail. He also served on the Crime Commission’s Sex Offenders Task Force.

And he hasn’t stopped. In 2008, his first year in the legislature, Mathieson’s bill to have the state police transmit the sex offender registry to the DMV and require them to appear at the DMV and have a photograph taken passed the legislature, one of two sex offender related bills he got passed that year. In 2009, he introduced two other sex offender related bills.

Given this history, I think it takes a whole lot of guts to harp on a single vote for a failed bill.

By the way – the day that Villaneuva testified, there was a City Council Budget Workshop regarding the FY 2004-2005 Resource Management Plan. Guess who wasn’t there when the meeting started? Yep. Villanueva. One of those 105 meetings that he’s missed or been late for. I suppose testifying for his mentee was a bit more important.

The Virginian-Pilot endorsements in the Virginia Beach House of Delegates races has been published. In the three races in which I predicted an endorsement, the Pilot endorsed just as I thought they would: Democratic incumbent Bobby Mathieson in the 21st, Republican incumbent Bob Purkey in the 82nd, and Democratic incumbent Joe Bouchard in the 83rd. I didn’t predict in the fourth Virginia Beach race because I completely forgot that Republican incumbent Bob Tata in the 85th district even had an opponent.

I knew that transportation was a major issue for this board but I didn’t realize it was the issue. Democratic challenger Peter Schmidt (82nd) almost pulled off an upset on this issue alone: the board really liked his approach:

During his editorial board interview, Schmidt’s proposal to immediately deploy congestion pricing as a means of attacking traffic was the single most practical and inexpensive transportation solution presented by any candidate this season.

Purkey’s seniority in the legislature and his willingness to support a transportation compromise was too much for Schmidt to overcome.

Of Bouchard, the Pilot recommended reelection, saying:

Stolle has said Bouchard “lacks the tools necessary to function” in a political environment. In fact, we believe Bouchard has exactly the tools to succeed in Richmond – a strong work ethic, knowledge of the most pressing of Hampton Roads’ issues and an analytical approach to solving problems.

While not its strongest endorsement, the board said of Mathieson:

But Villanueva has not been a strong leader on the council, and he fails to make a case that he will be a stronger leader than Bobby Mathieson in Richmond.

~

Guess that makes me 3 for 3 on House races

The winners of the five tickets for Tuesday’s rally with our next governor, Creigh Deeds, and President Barack Obama are:

Louis Eisenberg
spotter
Barbara Hatton-Hall
Carl Johansen
Teresa Eisenberg

Congratulations! Check your email!

And if you didn’t win, you can still get a ticket through the campaign website here. Just make sure that you show up in plenty of time – doors open at 2pm – as it is first come, first serve.

Thanks to all who entered!

We can’t.

As if that weren’t enough, both The Virginian-Pilot (not available online) and the Richmond Times Dispatch had articles on Stolle’s primary source of funds for this campaign.

Stolle, brother of the state senator who is likely Virginia Beach’s next sheriff, has received $326,000.

That puts him at the top of the RSLC pledge class — and, assuming Stolle wins, in the crosshairs of a prying press that is suspicious of the corollary between cash and conduct.

 

Well, the best answer to that problem is to re-elect Joe Bouchard.

UPDATE: Here is a pdf of Sunday’s Pilot column.

The ODU College Democrats and College Republicans will host a forum this Wednesday, October 28, for the candidates in the 80th House of Delegates District. The event will be held from 6pm to 7:30pm at the Mills Godwin Life Sciences Building, Room 102. The event is free and open to the public. Parking will be available in Garage B on the corner of 43rd Street and Elkhorn Street.

Democrat Matthew James and Republican Jennifer Lee  are vying for this open seat.

In a strongly worded endorsement today, The Virginian-Pilot editorial board endorsed Steve Shannon for Attorney General. Much of the endorsement laid bare how bad it would be for Republican Ken Cuccinelli to win next week’s election. The Pilot concluded:

To put it politely, Cuccinelli’s election would bring embarrassment to Virginia, instability to the state’s law firm and untold harm to the long list of people who don’t fit his personal definition of morality.

In a separate editorial, the board refused – just as it did in 2005 – to endorse anyone for Lieutenant Governor. Neither the Republican incumbent, Bill Bolling, nor the Democratic challenger, Virginia Beach’s Jody Wagner, measured up. The board gave Bolling credit for having jumped on the redistricting reform bandwagon, but felt – as per their rules – that Wagner had not made the case for unseating him.

~

These three editorials should make it clear to everyone that this ain’t your daddy’s Virginian-Pilot That the paper didn’t endorse the hometown candidate tells me that while they respect tradition, they no longer feel bound by it.

Proof that the Pilot is no longer the bastion of old-school thinking was the inclusion of the issue regarding the executive order on nondiscrimination of gays and lesbians in both the gubernatorial and AG endorsements. That the issue weighed enough on the minds of the editorial board not only to be part of their consideration but part of the written response tells me that we’ve got a 21st Century group of thinkers on that board.

~

And I’m 1 for 3 on my predictions. Pretty good for baseball, horrible for politics

Sometimes, I don’t mind being wrong

In an editorial for the Sunday paper, The Virginian-Pilot endorsed Democrat Creigh Deeds for governor.  And, as I suspected, the issue in the forefront of the board’s mind was transportation.

He offers a political strategy rather than a substantive plan for solving the state’s most overwhelming challenge. While that strategy does not provide transportation advocates the leadership they crave, the Democrat at least allows them a fighting chance to press forward. In contrast, Bob McDonnell’s plan is a chain-link fence of stall tactics designed to distract voters into believing that progress is being made while not providing the money to actually make it. Under a Gov. McDonnell, transportation advocates would waste four years clawing their way over, under and around barriers erected by the state’s top elected official.

The paper takes McDonnell to task on other issues as well, saying:

McDonnell may be a more persuasive leader, but he is asking Virginia to follow him down a dead-end road. If he is governor, he will spend four years churning out spreadsheets with fantasy forecasts and writing stern letters to the president, Congress, state legislators and city councils demanding that they do something to save him from his own inertia.

The “nobody from nowhere,” a characterization of him that Deeds often reminds us that the Pilot said back in 2005, just snatched one away from “Virginia Beach’s own.”

And that means both of McDonnell’s “hometown” papers endorsed Deeds.

UPDATE: I see the Roanoke Times has also endorsed Deeds. McDonnell didn’t even bother to be interviewed by that editorial board, a sure way to lose an endorsement.

UPDATE #2: Just a reminder to all the McDonnell folks out there: the Pilot endorsed McDonnell over Deeds in 2005.

Last year, when I dared question the support of Barack Obama for president, I was told repeatedly that the Supreme Court appointments were what mattered. Well Virginia, redistricting is our Supreme Court.

I’ve always been clear that the closer government is to me, the more it affects me.  At stake in this election is how we Virginians will live and function for the next twelve years. There will be no other race between now and the time the legislature undertakes redistricting in the 2011 General Assembly session. The lines that will be drawn will remain in effect until 2021.

If you want the Republicans to control two thirds of the redistricting puzzle, then go ahead  – write in someone other than Creigh Deeds for governor. Think about it: Bob McDonnell as governor is one vote away from controlling the entire redistricting process. And we know how well things worked for Democrats since the last redistricting controlled by Republicans. Despite his election year conversion, I don’t trust McDonnell to stick with his pledge of bipartisan redistricting. It’s just too tempting for him to not at least try to change the one Senate vote he needs. Besides, if he goes back on a campaign pledge, it’s not as if there is a mechanism to hold his feet to the fire: he doesn’t have to face the electorate again.

We have a shot at changing the redistricting process. And that shot lies solely with the election of Creigh Deeds as governor. Despite my differences with the man (and yes, there are many), at the end of the day, I refuse to lose sight of the goal.

At the end of the day, this election is about putting the voters first. A vote for anyone other than Creigh Deeds is a vote against the voters of Virginia.

In an op-ed piece today, editorial page editor Don Luzzatto explained the policy of The Virginian-Pilot on endorsements. Theoretically, the article is about why they endorse:

What we hope to do, with all of our editorials, is encourage substantive debate on the issues of the day, the kind of conversation that continues in the vibrant letters column on the opposite page.

[...]

Why do something we know will polarize our readers?

Because it’s our job. Freedom of the press is listed in the First Amendment because the founders knew that independent media were critical to a strong democracy. Informing people about an election — including providing our opinions on the candidates — is among the most important things we do.

As a proxy for our readers, we have largely unfettered access to the candidates, something increasingly rare in a managed media world. We’ve conducted more than a hundred hours of detailed interviews, and we’ve asked an untold number of questions. We’ve tried to get beyond the platitudes to examine and explore the issues that are important to all of us, especially in Hampton Roads.

But the piece also explains the how:

There are no hard or fast rules, but we do proceed from a few premises: We tilt toward incumbents unless they’ve done something bad or been particularly ineffective. Seniority matters, especially in the General Assembly. So does a good mind and seriousness of purpose. We hope that a candidate’s opinions on the major issues match our own, but that’s only one factor among many.

There you have it. Take that into consideration when you read the forthcoming endorsements.

Capt. John Bell, the Democratic candidate for Sheriff in Virginia Beach, has been picking up some endorsements.

The Virginia Police Benevolent Association, a statewide group who represents law enforcement officers,  has endorsed his candidacy.

We will ask our members, their friends and families, and all citizens who respect the strong and efficient enforcement of our laws to cast their ballots in the upcoming election in your favor.

The Virginia Beach Police Supervisors’ Association also endorsed Bell.

We believe that John, with his 35 years of law enforcement experience will continue to maintain the high standards of the Virginia Beach Sheriff’s Office as well as continuing cooperation with our Police Department. It is for these reasons that we ask for your support and vote for John Bell as our next Sheriff in Virginia Beach.

Finally, the Virginia Beach Taxpayer Alliance announced its endorsement of Bell Thursday.

John Bell brings the non-professional politician and thirty-plus years of distinguish service in your police department to the race – quality over big money and flash.

Speaking of money, Bell is having a fundraiser this coming Sunday, October 25. Details are below the fold.

You are invited to a Reception for

Virginia Beach Sheriff Candidate

Captain John L. Bell, Jr.

HOSTED BY:

Charles F Nelson, Jr. and Mary Redd Nelson
Dr. Ulysses V. and Olivia Spiva and Bill and Marie Goines
Honorable Todd C. Davidson, Virginia Beach School Board
Honorable Patricia Edmonson, Virginia Beach School Board
Honorable Brent McKenzie, Virginia Beach School Board
Honorable Sandra Smith-Jones, Virginia Beach School Board

Sunday, October 25th, 4:00 PM to 7:00 PM

3556 Shore Drive on the Bay
Virginia Beach, VA 23455-1724

General Donation: $25; Friend of John Bell: $50; Sponsor: $100+

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I’ve got five tickets for the Obama/Deeds rally coming up in Norfolk at the Ted Constant Convocation Center this coming Tuesday. These aren’t the general admission tickets. These are the guaranteed admission tickets. With these tickets, you will get in.

And you can win one. Here’s how:

In the comments below, tell me why you are supporting Creigh Deeds for governor. And tell me why you think you should win a ticket.

The deadline for entries is 5pm Monday, October 26. At 6pm, I’ll pick the five best comments and announce the winners. Make sure you enter a valid email address as winners will also be notified by email.

I’ll be updating this post with more details about the rally as they become available. And to make it easy to find, I’ll keep this post stuck to the top of the blog until the entry deadline passes. (New blog content will be below this post.)

UPDATE Saturday, 11:24am: Just got some more details on the rally. The doors will open at 2pm. Because parking is an issue, please consider carpooling. The rally program is scheduled to start at 3:50pm.

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

The Deeds campaign today released more details on the tickets for the Obama rally.

Guaranteed admission: volunteer!

Volunteers who complete a shift this weekend anywhere in the Commonwealth will be guaranteed admission to the rally. To sign up to volunteer this weekend, click here.

General admission

General admission to the rally will be on a first come, first serve basis. To RSVP for general admission ticketing and further information, click here.

So says Sen. Louise Lucas and Del. Lionell Spruill. Via The Washington Post blog, we learned that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell has released a radio ad targeted at the black community. The ad, which is being aired in Hampton Roads,  mentions both former governor Doug Wilder and President Barack Obama. Combined with the endorsement of “Democrat business woman”* Sheila Johnson, the implication is clear. Listen for yourself.

Upon hearing the ad, Lucas and Spruill issued the following statement:

This ad is blatantly misleading and a shameful attempt to dupe people into thinking Bob McDonnell supports the President.  It would be laughable if it weren’t clear that he was trying to lure voters into thinking he would be a partner and friend to our President and a good steward of Virginia’s future.  When Creigh Deeds stood with Mark Warner and Tim Kaine to make record investments in education, Bob McDonnell voted no.  His education policies would rob much needed funding from Virginia classrooms and leave children with fewer books and teachers.  His election would erode nearly a decade of progress here in Virginia.

What they said.

* – Only a Republican would call herself a “Democrat business woman.”

UPDATE: The Richmond Free Press today endorsed Creigh Deeds.

Creigh Deeds is an authentic, decent man, with moderate sensibilities.  With a self-effacing demeanor that often defies the hype found in much of today’s politics, Sen. Deeds is a real, unpretentious, regular guy who takes responsibility for what he says and does.

Having two of the three candidates with ties to Hampton Roads is, no doubt, causing a bit of heartburn for the members of editorial board of The Virginian-Pilot.  Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell lived in Virginia Beach and represented part of it in the House of Delegates (84th district). Democratic Lieutenant Governor candidate Jody Wagner has also lived in Virginia Beach for a long time and has a business here. So the lure to support the hometown candidate is strong.

But I think they will resist – at least in one case

Attorney General: Steve Shannon

Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli has run the most disciplined campaign of the season, pretty much keeping his wilder side under control.  In addition, the only editorial I’ve seen mentioning Democratic candidate Steve Shannon was this one, just after the primary, in which the board complains that he was an unknown. Nevertheless, I expect the board to endorse Shannon, basing the endorsement on the respective legislative records of the two men.

Lieutenant Governor: Jody Wagner

The endorsement for this one could have been written in June. Wait – read that link above and you’ll see that it was

Governor: no one

Yes, the composition of the editorial board has changed since 2005, when the Pilot endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell for AG over Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds. And yes, they have gotten to know Deeds a lot better. But I suspect they have not liked what they have heard from him, again, reading from that June editorial above.  At the same time, they can’t ignore the elephant (no pun intended) in the room: McDonnell’s thesis.  They will probably both applaud and pan McDonnell’s transportation plan – applaud for him having a plan and pan for the unrealistic nature of the plan – while chiding Deeds for not putting forth a more specific transportation plan.

~

For posterity, here (pdf) is the statewide endorsement of the Pilot from 2005.

This is the second part of a series on predicting the endorsements of The Virginian-Pilot editorial board. The House endorsements can be found here. Predictions of local endorsements will be forthcoming.

Except one small problem: when given the opportunity to cut his pay, Virginia Beach Councilman, now the Republican challenger to incumbent Democrat Bobby Mathieson, basically punted.

Last February, fellow council member Bill Steph proposed a 25% pay cut for the region’s highest paid council.

“It’s not like we’re phoning it in,” said Councilman Ron Villanueva. “Every week, my calendar is full. Everybody on that council works for that money.”

The cut never materialized.

What has changed since February? Why that would be the decision of Villanueva to run for the House of Delegates.

The best thing the voters in the 21st can do is make sure Ron stays home and helps enact that pay cut Vote Bobby Mathieson for Delegate.

The last debate between the candidates for Attorney General, Democrat Steve Shannon and Republican Ken Cuccinelli, will take place at 1:15pm today in at the Omni in Richmond. The debate will be streamed live here.

In the meantime, take a look at this video

Is this the guy you want for AG?

Governor Tim Kaine stopped by the campaign headquarters earlier today, bringing pizza and rallying the troops. I was sent a few photos, below. As always, click to enlarge.