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Last Dance of 2008 in Georgia for Chambliss and Martin

DanaBlankenhorn — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:38:23 -0600

Because early votes were counted last, news of a run-off between Democrat Jim Martin and incumbent Saxby Chambliss for the U.S. Senate took days to get out.

But the race, and early voting, are now on. The debates start November 23. Republican legislators, fearing the worst, have a case of buyer's remorse, but they can't "fix" it until January.

Chambliss has to be considered a prohibitive favorite. He came very close to winning last time, overcoming enormous African-American turnout, and the run-off was only necessary because of Libertarian Allan Buckley, whom Republicans assume secretly heart Saxby. Had he just run even with McCain this would not have been necessary.

What is most interesting about the new campaign is it seems to be running in different universes.

The Republican dominates the airwaves. He has brought in party celebrities to campaign with him and put out a call for help from the Republican 527s. He is talking to every Republican outlet he can.

By contrast the Democrat's campaign is all ground game. (National party support is on a hush-hush basis.) Peachpundit dismisses it as a minion horde. That and the Netroots. Bill Clinton is Martin's chief campaigner, and no decision has yet been made about bringing in President-elect Obama to boost black turnout. Bring it on, says Jim Wooten.

In fact this is not about Allan Buckley, despite his manifesto. This is about who can get how much of their November 4 vote back into the booths. This may be a problem. Rightroots bloggers are still playing hard to get. But their influence may be less than they think.

Most people say they will vote in the run-off. Most people are lieing. The betting is that Chambliss wins with north of 55 per cent, because Martin is still running away from his Democratic Party badge. What may happen is that the November 4 pattern reverses, with the Democratic vote coming in on the day and the Republican vote coming in early.

How High the Dem Tide in Virginia

DanaBlankenhorn — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 19:51:46 -0600

With Barack Obama surging to victory statewide and Mark Warner turning Jim Gilmore into this year's version of Alan Keyes in the Senate "race,", conservative bloggers are becoming discouraged and Virginia Democrats are putting a number of House seats in play.

Most likely to flip is Virginia's 11th CD, where Democrat Gerry Connolly faces Keith Fimian for the seat of retiring Republican Tom Davis. This is the near Washington suburbs and, surprise, most of the intensity is on Fimian's side. He's pro-life, an angry populist, he's BFF with Karl Rove, and his hard-right stands have made him into a hero for Black Velvet Bruce Li, who is also going after Connolly. Mason Conservative loves Fimian's idea of jailing Congress. Too Conservative accuses Connolly of seeking votes at a funeral. Still, Fimian's likely to sink under a flood of in-person absentee voting -- 300,000 have done this so far statewide.

Next most likely to turn is Virginia's 2nd CD, where Republican incumbent Thelma Drake is being challenged by Glenn Nye. The race is now a toss-up, reflecting the changing dynamic of the state's politics, where Democrats are now the rock stars. Democrats are spending big here, but Raising Kaine is not counting on a win. Drake won on a late scandal last time, but now the scandal is hers, as she apparently played the foreclosure market.

Third comes Virginia's 5th CD, where Republican incumbent Virgil Goode is getting a strong challenge from Tom Periello. The Democrat has now raised $2 million and is using a Kay Hagan "old coot" ad against Goode. But the big news is that Goode apparently invested in a gay "coming of age" movie, called Eden's Curve. Goode's press secretary, one Linwood Duncan, has now resigned to spend more time with his closet. Republicans claim George Soros is trying to steal the seat and Periello is from New York City. (New York City?) Still local papers have endorsed the Democrat and this is listed now as just "leans Republican."

Next is Virginia's 10th CD, the Washington exurbs, where Democrats should be doing better. But they have veteran candidate Judy Feder, who may have worn out her welcome challenging Frank Wolf. Republicans note she isn't getting big support from the national party and say she's set up to fail again. But then Wolf had a Macaca moment, letting an aide whack one of Feder's aides with a metal cane. Going Preston Brooks on the other candidate is truly old school, but they didn't have videotape back in the 1850s.

Even Bob Goodlatte in the 6th CD has a serious challenger, named Sam Rasoul. Sam's just 27 and this may be too early for the seat to turn.

What may give even Rasoul some hope, however, is the complete disarray in the Virginia GOP. The state's McCain coordinator was seeking a Tim Kaine Macaca moment just three years ago. Party chair Jeff Frederick wants the McCainiacs out of his office. Even Rush Limbaugh admits there is a leadership vacuum. Renaissance Ruminations has already begun his post-mortems and The Richmond Democrat laughingly suggests Republican party activists may want to leave -- for Alaska.

How High the Dem Tide in North Carolina?

DanaBlankenhorn — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 08:37:59 -0600

The intensity of the very close Obama-McCain battle has obscured all Congressional fights but not the statewide races. The missteps of one candidate, however, could portend a sweep.

Republicans now seem almost resigned to Elizabeth Dole losing to Kay Hagan but see hope for a consolation prize in Pat McCrory beating Beverly Perdue for Governor.

Few rightroots bloggers are defending Dole but many are banging the drum hard for McCrory, who is Mayor of Charlotte. He has gotten major newspaper endorsements and leads in the polls. One big reason is the excessive travel of current first lady Mary Easley. Thunder Pig is almost ignoring the Dole-Hagan race to give more coverage to McCrory-Perdue. That some McCrory people gave to Perdue is down to simple bet-hedging.

That is not to say liberals aren't pushing back against McCrory. BlueNC accuses him of conflicts of interest, and complains about the newspaper endorsements. The Progressive Pulse says he's fudging the numbers on health care. The Stinging Nettle also carries a warning. But it's not their main focus.

Elizabeth Dole is their main focus.

Fact is, Dole's late tactics are straight out of the Jesse Helms playbook, but Jesse is dead. A mailer about union bosses? 1978 called and they want their tactics back. Going back to the Godless well after even the churchmen have complained? She comes off as the best friend Democrats have. Hagan filed suit against the ads, but I hear flowers also make a nice gift.

What Dole has done is topping a Democratic wave that is now threatening normally safe Republicans down the ballot. Robin Hayes looks like toast in NC-8, Virginia Foxx is feeling the heat in NC-5, her chances downgraded, and Democrats are calling her out loudly. The NC-11 race between Heath Shuler and Carl Mumpower looks like a walkover for the Democrat.

How High the Dem Tide in Kentucky?

DanaBlankenhorn — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:03:26 -0600

There is no Democratic tide in Kentucky, which is not keeping Democrats from dreaming they can knock off Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican Minority Leader.

The latest polls put McConnell up 2-7 points against Bruce Lunsford, who must deal with what looks like a McCain landslide in the state. Hillary Clinton is campaigning for him. Had she been the nominee this race might be tighter but Obama never really contested the state and rural Kentuckians believe the worst about him. Lunsford hopes Clinton and a cute ad (above) highlighting McConnell's high disapproval ratings can put him over the top. He is greatly outperforming the Presidential ticket in rural Kentucky.

McConnell, however, is running scared, and his supporters in the blogosphere have those polls to comfort them.The best news may be that rightroot bloggers have not abandoned him, as they did Saxby Chambliss in Georgia.

That is fueled in part by their hatred of Lunsford, on whom they sprung one of the year's great dirty tricksrecently.The charge is Lunsford stole a McConnell tape recorder after a recent debate belonging to a Republican Lunsford imitator. Both sides are in court over this nonsense, with Lunsford saying he didn't do it. It's all meaningless to voters, so who can it sway?

Over on the left, hatred of McConnell still runs strong. They see him as a coward, as corrupt, and as a dirty campaigner. They see the Republicans trying to steal the election, and Republican supporters as little more than thugs.

Yet the Kentucky Kurmudgeon still sees an opening for Lunsford. Unemployment is over 7%, even Republicans see McCain as cooked, and former Republican candidate Billy Harper has joined major newspapers endorsing Lunsford. McConnell's past praise of convicted Sen. Ted Stevens is coming back to haunt him, despite McConnell now calling on Stevens to resign, and trend lines are against him.

Still, this is a state where the NRA is popular, and Laura Bush can campaign as an asset. The whole nation will be watching this race, which could be among the first called Tuesday night. The 2008 would be truly transformational if McConnell goes down, taking key allies with him.

How High the Dem Tide in Georgia

DanaBlankenhorn — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:58:30 -0600

The rising Democratic tide looks high enough to put Jim Martin into a Senate run-off next month against incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss, with help from Allen Buckley, the Libertarian.

Martin is rising on the Obama wave, while Saxby is being hurt by a rightroots movement for Buckley.

Early voting across the state seems dominated by Democrats. (Some are Twittering their wait times.) As of today a quarter of the vote is in. Turnout is heaviest in mostly-black DeKalb County, where I live.

Republican Secretary of State Karen Handel refused to extend voting hours, leading to much muttering and comparisons to infamous Florida SoS Katharine Harris. Among the outrages -- claiming some voters are non-citizens and dropping some who haven't voted lately from the rolls. Insider Advantage says Handel is killing her future prospects. Safe as Houses thinks she's paranoid and Tondee's Tavern agrees.

The big news in this race remains the rightroots, many of whom now detest Chambliss for having betrayed their principles in the bailout vote. Some are buying the Buckley line that there is no difference between the major parties. Jason Pye is now fisking the Republican, Icarus at PeachPundit does not like the fear tactics, and even Erick Erickson does not see the Republicans as well organized as two years ago.

Republicans hope a national Democratic ad against Chambliss' support for a 23% national sales tax, which advocates call the Fair Tax, will wake up the echoes. A dozen Fair Tax supporters picketed Martin, even though he backed away from the ad.

Insiders are also parsing a phony memo saying Chambliss should go after Buckley or he will lose. The real story is that, under Georgia law, Buckley's 5% may force a December run-off between the other two. This might bring in the President-elect, and lots of attention. Last time this happened, in 1992, it didn't work, incumbent Democrat Wyche Fowler losing to the late Republican Paul Coverdell. If the new President is popular, however, a Republican incumbent could go down.

So the intensity ratchets up day by day. Bill Clinton came in for Martin, abortion activists came in from both sides of the issue. With so many already voting polls look meaningless. Racist Erick Erickson sees riots if Obama losers, paranoid Buzz Brockway sees disaster if he wins. Both are that scared. Democrats, meanwhile, are enthusiastic and energized, their minds bent on political revenge.

How High the Dem Tide in Mississippi

DanaBlankenhorn — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 07:08:49 -0600

John McCain is expected to win Mississippi easily, despite a lot of new voters (maybe too many) and a lot of early voting, which means Democrats down the ballot might be vulnerable.

Travis Childers has to get split-tickets against his predecessor in Mississippi's 1st CD, Roger Wicker, in order to beat Greg Davis again. Oliver Diaz (above) is also vulnerable on the State Supreme Court. Kingfish Haley Barbour could emerge with absolute control of all three branches of government and the whole Washington delegation.

Still it's the Wicker re-election fight against Democrat Ronnie Musgrove that is the main event here. Musgrove has celebrity Sen. Jim Webb and a lot of national party money on his side. Wicker has McCain, Barbour, a lot of negative ads, and some of the orneriest right-wing supporters in the world on his side.

Late polls have Wicker up 11 points although other polls are closer. This is a state where even identifying with Obama is seen as a gaffe.

Dems may be fishing in the wrong watering hole. This is a state where the knees still jerk, where the war never ends, where the hate still rises, and where the mud remains thick. Democrats look to be bringiing popcorn to a horror show.

How High the Dem Tide in Louisiana?

DanaBlankenhorn — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 17:23:20 -0600

A Rasmussen Reports survey shows John McCain up 16 points in Louisiana so the real question should be how high the Republican tide will rise in the Bayou State. Early voting has begun with 215,000 ballots cast by October 28.

The answer will lie in the 6th CD, which Democrat Don Cazayoux won in a special election months ago. He is being challenged by Republican Bill Cassidy (above) but also by a black Democrat, Michael Jackson. Cassidy has a cash on hand advantage. The Daily Kingfish claims conservative construction magnate Lane Grigsby is bankrolling Jackson.

Jeff Sadow is arguing that a recent debate puts John N. Kennedy back in the hunt against incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu, but The Daily Kingfish doesn't buy it. He's more interested in discrediting Sadow, whose blog is Between the Lines. CenLamar blames the debate moderator for the kerfluffle.

The latest polls put Landrieu's margin at 13, down from 17 earlier. Landrieu claims some Republican support, and the party is punishing those who crossed over. She leads in newspaper endorsements, but so does Obama.

How High the Dem Tide in Tennessee?

DanaBlankenhorn — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 15:00:39 -0600

There is no rising Democratic tide in Tennessee. John McCain will win, Sen. Lamar Alexander will win re-election easily, and it's very possible Republicans will tighten their grip on the legislature.

Blame Memphis. Memphis is the Democratic Party heartland, and it has become completely dysfunctional, a dystopia of sudden death and racial animostity. The big news this week is that Shelby County Democrats handed out the wrong sample ballot, recommending "No" votes on propositions they had not decided to vote against. The Left Wing Cracker is aghast.

Despite enormous early voting, especially in Memphis, Obama may win just half the number of counties Kerry carried in 2004. Early voting is as big in Republican Tennessee as in Democratic Tennessee. West Tennessee Liberal doesn't even hold out hope for 2010. Popular Gov. Phil Bredesen is not helping down-ticket, and state chair Gray Sasser has proven a disaster.

Thus Tennessee Republicans are energized to take the State Senate, adding to the power of Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey. The most intense features Republican Delores Gresham (above) and Democrat Randy Camp. Camp has someone following Gresham (a milk heiress) around in a cow suit. Apparently her family took farm subsidies but the stunt looks more like a Chick-fil-A ad.

Tennessee has managed to replace Georgia as the most ineffectual Democratic organization in the region. Newspapers can find hardly any Democrats worth an endorsement, Democrats can't find candidates even against the Republicans' kooks (blogging is kooky) and if a black person believes in re-form they're a Republican. And so are all the people with big ideas.

How High the Dem Tide in Florida?

DanaBlankenhorn — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 19:38:40 -0600

With Barack Obama slightly ahead in most polls, and hundreds of thousands of votes already in (despite long lines) Florida Democrats have no idea how high the tide might rise.

Up to 5 Congressional Republicans are under serious threat, but 1 Democrat, Tim Mahoney in the 16th CD, appears doomed.

Vern Buchanan in Florida's 22nd is unlikely to be among the victims, however. Even DailyKos shows him well ahead in his rematch with Christine Jennings, thanks in part to a third candidate, "independent Democrat" Jan Schneider. Republicans would like to make Robert Wexler sweat in the 19th CD, but so far no luck.

Among those Republicans trailing in the latest polls are Ric Keller in the 8th CD (he disputes it), Tom Feeney in the 24th CD (his party has reportedly pulled out of the race), Mario Diaz-Balert in the 25th CD, and Lincoln Diaz-Balert in the 21st CD, with Ileana Ros-Letinen just hanging in in the 18th CD. Feeney was a victim of the Jack Abramoff scandal, Keller suffers from a changing district, while the last three are Cuban-Americans who may be losing their constituency as younger voters move toward the Democrats.

Mahoney, caught in a straight sexual affair two years after predecessor Mark Foley was caught in a gay one, is either trailing by 9 points or 26. Liberal Democrats, who didn't like how he got his original nomination, are all for tossing him an anvil.

But add Feeney, subtract Mahoney and you have the status quo in the state's delegation. Take out Keller and the Dems are just up one. The big uncertainty is around Miami, where the three Cuban-Republicans be winning or losing. That may be why the Democrats are investing heavily across the state.

How High the Dem Tide in South Carolina?

DanaBlankenhorn — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 07:29:59 -0600

As the national Democratic wave rises to Katrina-like proportions it is even battering the coast of South Carolina, which might elect itself a liberal Democratic Congresscritter in the 1st CD.

Linda Ketner is her name, and incumbent Henry Brown her target. The race was recently moved to the "lean Republican" category by CQ, despite the fact he won 60-35 in 2006. Conservative bloggers seem discouraged, and the few liberals highly energized, meaning she could close quickly. The district runs up the coast from Charleston to Myrtle Beach.

Even Brad Warthen of The State in Columbia, which endorsed McCain this weekend, admits this could be a bad year for the paper's endorsees. He doesn't believe the few polls showing it close and was impressed by the Chicago Tribune's endorsement of Obama.

Indigo Journal is jazzed about Ketner, and Democrats have suddenly discovered they have an organization.(One not owned by Howard Rich.) Brown has refused to debate, a decision which could haunt him, and even the conservative Voting Under the Influence admits it's a real race.

The Republican response has been to go heavily negative. South Carolina Conservative calls it an ideological contest, but Palmetto Scoop is going personal anyway, accusing her of violating the election law, putting a porn filter on her fax machine, and changing her ads on election surveys. Brown's first TV ad of the cycle (above) just calls her an "ultra-liberal." There's a built-in assumption here that negative ads still work and that ideological knees still jerk.

All this comes against the backdrop of a poll showing McCain up 20. Even Indigo Journal knows Obama has no chance in the state and the Republicans' top kneecapper has been dispatched up north. But if that's true why is the nobody (Bob Conley) up against Lindsay Graham making a race of it? Why is Rep. Joe Wilson even campaigning against challenger Rob Miller, and Gresham Barrett even debating his opponent? Why is the Palmetto Scoop wasting bandwidth attacking Miller?