Golden Ratio

ROBINHOOD Tracking : This is the end

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Mon, 31 Aug 2020 15:30:00 +0000

This is the end, beautiful friend
This is the end, my only friend
The end of our elaborate plans
The end of ev'rything that stands
The end
No safety or surprise
The end
I'll never look into your eyes again

It seems Robinhood decided to restrict (read "sell for money instead of providing for free") access to its public API based upon with sites like Robintrack worked. Certainly it would be another potential source of income to Robinhood, but it means that my experiment has to finish. In any case the performance was disappointing so I am not shedding any tears.

3 months ago, for a fun social experiment, I created two indices to track Robinhood Traders performance. Going forward I am not going to rebalance the indices. I am leaving the tracking on with the last set of stocks which you can track below anytime.

$GBPUSD : Is this the final leg up for CABLE?

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Mon, 24 Aug 2020 12:30:00 +0000

Cable, as GBPUSD is popularly known, taking its name from the first truly successful cable across the Atlantic, which once completed in July 1866 allowed reliable transmission of currency prices between the London and New York City Exchanges, has been an important pillar in world currency markets. Even though british empire and GBP have paled in significance in the the league table of world economies, GBP still remains the 4th biggest reserve currency of the world as per IMF data.

Since hitting new multi decade lows in Feb 2020, Cable made strong recovery along with rest of the asset classes from the lows of 1.1414 to nearly 1.3085 today. Does it mean the worst is behind us or the rally is coming to an end.

Let us find out!

ROBINHOOD Tracking : July rebalance results

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Fri, 31 Jul 2020 16:00:00 +0000

2 months ago, for a fun social experiment, I created two indices to track Robinhood Traders performance. So far the performance of Robinhood has been disappointing. Let us see how the month of July has been.

ROBINHOOD Tracking : June Rebalance Results

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 01 Jul 2020 12:30:00 +0000

In June 2020, for a fun social experiment, I created two indices to track Robinhood Traders performance. This is time for first rebalance and report card. Let us see how they performed compared to broader market.

..... drumrollll .....

ROBINHOOD Tracking

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 10 Jun 2020 19:52:00 +0000

A lot has been said about Robinhood traders on social media and in trading & investing circles. Some call them bag holders while others call them dumb money. They have been blamed for large inflows into ETFs like USO or JETS when the seemingly "smart money" was heading for the exit but if you look back many of these "popular" stocks have done well. So the question is "are the Robinhooders, as they are called, really dumb money or is this just a cases of wall street smarty pants being a little jealous of common man making some dough?"

Let's find out !!

I'm back!

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Mon, 25 May 2020 21:51:00 +0000

It seems I have got some time on my hand and also the markets are becoming interesting so I decided to dust off this old blogger account. Looking forward to sharing my thoughts and comments on the markets and looking forward to interacting with you again!

Watch this space!

BTFD

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 18:16:00 +0000

What the f*** is BTFD?

I have no internet today. Trying to get along on iPad with mobile network. May be this is good for both $AAPL and $FTE (France Telecom) both of which I have bought.

Since I am forced to spend too much time on twitter, I came across once again and again and again the term BTFD. What does it mean? May be I am missing out on some special technical indicator.

So I decided to solve the riddle and throwing all my procrastination aside, I googled the term.

BTFD - Buy The F***ing Dip.

Is that it? The secret sauce? The holy grail? The bushy fountain? (ok let me stop here). No wonder I was on wrong side of this whole bull market :-)

BTFD - that's all you want.

BTFD - that's what we all must do.

More details here

I am off to BTFD.

Meanwhile enjoy a sample of my new art on iPad.

$ES_F : 1545 - 1525 : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 21:18:00 +0000

Opex Madness - Do not fall in love with the upside (yet)

Trend change confirmed. Trading from bearish bias.

Today was April options expiry and markets reacted in some strange fashion. On one hand a healthy sign for bulls is that

Weekly trend change is not confirmed and markets managed to close above 1543 even though in the lower half of the weekly range.
Rally from 50 dma has been propelling markets higher. Each of those two rallies have been impressive and uncorrected before they are sold again. So far these corrective rallies look like making lower highs lower lows strengthening the case for bears.

However the volume on selling legs of the market is improving and any rally is building up protection buying. This is similar to situation which was prevalent in AAPL a while back before the sharp break started down. The current trend is short but it is a young and tender trend, it can be be broken easily if some determined bulls come to the party. I have started trading from the short side with caution. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.

$ES_F : 1545 - 1525 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:48:00 +0000

Trend has turned bearish. Move to 1500-1450 under way.

Selling Rallies

The market is developing a well established rhythm of breaking new lows on high volume followed by low volume recovery. The volatility has increased causing the size of reaction and subsequent falls to increase (which is better for trading perspective as long as proper risk management is employed). Market is being supported by the 50 dma and so far it has acted as good support but I would expect that to be broken in coming days. It appears that a move to 1500 - 1450 area has begun. I will update the comments section as the day develops which can be subscribed for email triggers.

$ES_F : 1555 - 1540 : (Early) Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 16:37:00 +0000

Bears are getting strong.

Trend change confirmed. Trading from bearish bias.

Today is an early market recap for me as I have to go out for a lovely dinner but it seems my day trading is already done.

Markets are progressively confirming that the control has been shifted to bears and therefore trading from short side is making sense. I am getting comfortable holding short positions. The volumes are increasing on the selling legs indicating longer term players are taking profit or establishing short positions. New short sellers are also appearing to hold the shake-out attempts well and defending key levels showing the confidence of the markets to go short. I am looking for a move to 1530-1500 initially going all the way to 1450-1400 area. 1593 is marked as important top on my charts and key pivot point to trade from. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.

$ES_F : 1555 - 1540 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 12:58:00 +0000

Cautiously Bearish.

Near important top. Volatility Expected

The choppiness near the top is creating a set up of possible pause in the rally. Yesterday was a good follow though day for bears coupled with high volume selling. However support was noted at 50 dma and so far that has provided a good 15 points rally from the low. The markets has so far not rejected the 1538 low. However the line in sand for bears is 1558 and hard stop at 1570. If markets starts rising beyond 1558, bears have once again lost strength. The trend is still on the mixed now with bearish bias and there are several signs indicating a fatigue and I am not planning to take a big position either way. I will update the comments as the day develops.

$ES_F : 1565 - 1545 : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 18:07:00 +0000

Finally a success for a bears.

Important top formed at 1593. Trend change in making.

After a feeble low volume attempt to shake new shorts, the market could not entice new buyers and finally we have a good confirmed short set-up immediately in the vicinity of a top. The following are supporting the top formation and possible trend change.

The rally from 1533 to 1593 was a straight line up move, followed by equally strong move in opposite direction with increasing volume. These capitulation tops mark important turning points for the markets.
The short set-up has held on the move down and bears have shown a follow through.
The macro economic climates has been screaming for a correction/pause in stock market rally for a long time. Any other indicators (bonds, metals, china, emerging markets) have not been supportive of the rally.

If the current move has strength, the first target would be 1500 - 1450 area. And if the bears have legs, a trend change on longer term time frame could develop requiring a new analysis. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.

$ES_F : 1565 - 1545 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 12:45:00 +0000

Cautiously Bearish.

Today is the follow up day for bears to take the market down.

The choppiness near the top is creating a set up of possible pause in the rally. Yesterday I was expecting S&P to remain below 1565 to keep the short side trade intact but instead it moved up. In pre markets session today, it is trading around 1557 giving up most of yesterday gain and leaving a nearly 10 points gap down, yesterday market had a gap up which was never filled. These sort of situations demand caution. The trend is still on the bullish side but there are several signs indicating a fatigue and I am not planning to take a big position either way. I will update the comments as the day develops.

$GBPUSD $6B_F : Mighty Pound could be in trouble

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 11:51:00 +0000

Sterling is looking seriously week on longer term time frames.

1.4525 area as possible next target with further downside possible.

Before 1944 British Pound was once the reserve currency of the world. Today less than 4% of worlds reserves are kept in GBP but even that makes it the third major currency in the global reserves game. But progressively British world dominance has declined together with decimation of its industrial base and over reliance of the economy on financial services. After hitting a peak of 2.1160 (not all time high but high in last 20 years) Sterling has progressively given ground against US Dollar and during the 2007-2009 financial crisis it plunged as low as 1.3502. Since then GBP has been in a very tight range for last 4 years failing to move either way out of the range. Here is a weekly chart of GBP since Oct 2007.

$ES_F : : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 19:53:00 +0000

No Cigar for Bears (once again)

Market Seems to have rejected first attempt down.

I return from a nearly 3.5 weeks holiday and I find things the same. Markets are strong and rejecting any attempts by bears. S&P made new all time high ensuring all major US indices (DJI, RUT and SPX) have made new all time highs and it seems now even Gold bulls have thrown in the towel and embraced stocks.

Until something changes it is fair to assume that trend is favouring long side. Here is 5 minute chart of today's day session:

Cyprus : Capitalism is back

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 18:28:00 +0000

After long negotiations, the EU group, IMF and Cyprus announced the deal in early hours to resolve the ongoing crisis which engulfed the tiny country for last 10 days. The financial systems were shut down, banks were locked, money was rationed, credit card payments ground to halt and all commercial activity virtually stopped.

On many counts this deal is lot better than how earlier bailouts were handled and the cost of collapse has been put on parties which should take up the cost in true capitalism instead of distributing the pain on wider tax payers. For a long time the bailouts were handled in socialist way where by the losses were spread around, to tax payers, to govt debts and to general public. Creating a skewed risk reward. Privatised gains but public losses. In the name of contagion or systemic failure, banks were bailed out with public money with minimal pain to the parties which should be first in line. The Cyprus rescue changes few things fundamentally:

$ES_F : 1542-1552 : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 20:24:00 +0000

Bears are back in town.

Flip Flop continues. Caution required.

Finally it appears the markets are catching up with the reality in rest of the word. The Cyprus situation is escalating and I cringe just to watch it on TV. No credit cards, no electronic transactions, cash only deals, withdrawal limit on ATMs, banks closed till next week. This is not the environment for bull market highs. The bullish set-up is once again broken and market continued its flip flop move. My experience tells me that this is start of key moments for markets because such flip flop shows markets is struggling to find a direction and it usually marks a trend change. If I am reading right, move towards 1500 has started. Here is the 5 minute chart of today's day session....

$BCOIN : My experiments with Bit Coin

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 19:19:00 +0000

They say this is one currency no government can control.

What it is, how it is used and why you should care.

The recent crisis in Cyprus where the banks have not opened for this week and there is a growing fear that "if and when" they open, there will be a bank run there is a lot of talk in blog-sphere about getting your freedom from Govt. controlled currencies and in that aspect BitCoin is one such currency which grabs your attention. I wanted to write a detailed post but thank to +Geoff Taylor's comment on my facebook post I got this excellent link for "all you want to know about bit coin". After this there is not much point in repeating what is already said and instead I created this post to note my experiments with $BCOIN - a new entrant in the forex market.

So, as a start I got my BitCoin wallet. At the time of writing the bit coins are trading BTCUSD 73.0000

I am yet to open accounts with exchanges and may be buy my first bit coin. However if anyone is feeling generous, please feel free to make a donation to bc1q4fsqzwrc5u8g6ewwmqrscyz97csvewacda5t9g

I will keep updating the comments on this post to add more of my experience with BitCoin.

$ES_F : 1552 - 1542 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:18:00 +0000

Cautiously Bearish.

Cyprus is not fully priced in I feel.

The news from Cyprus is not improving. Today ECB threatened to pull liquidity by 25th March thereby putting a firm deadline for the Cyprus to act. In return Cyprus govt postponed vote on the plan B and announced that deposit levy is not in consideration. Russia is now playing in EU politics and I would not be surprised if this results into some new conflict as well. Germany and Russia are not the best of friends after all. The Cyprus defiance is prompting Greece to rebel against the bailout terms. British savers are fretting about their savings. The banks in Cyprus have not opened for a week now. Merchants are refusing credit card payments. Cash is running short. RAF plane is in Cyprus with cash for British personnel. We have not seen such events in a long time. We can put all our trust in politicians to resolve the issues and keep buying with both hands OR we can take stock of the situation and exercise caution. May be EU will relent and renegotiate and send a bundle of cash for bail-out without demanding bail-in. May be Russia will step up to the plate and bail out an old friend in return for military and gas exploration rights. May be AAPL will buy Cyprus island with all the excess cash sitting on its books. Who knows. May be Cyprus will leave Euro all together and go in the arms of Russia. Market is paying no attention to this event so far and going up in stride. Is this a bull trap? Is this a sign of strength of the market? I do not know. All I can see is that markets are bullish and short set-up is again broken. However I am really cautious on long side today until weekend. I will keep a keen eye on news from Europe until the mess is resolved.

$ES_F : 1544-1557 : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 20:09:00 +0000

Business as usual - grinding high.

Short set-up broken again.

These markets are strong. Overcoming any thing thrown in its path. Breaking any short set-up before they are even fully developed. For how long. Out side the fed protected world a lot of crazy things are happening. In a tiny island the banks have not opened since 15th March and are not going to open at least until 26th March. That is nearly 10 days of bank closure. These are not normal times. We might hide our head in sand and think a tiny island does not matter but a big dangerous game of geo political poker has been put into play and in which everyone is going to lose. The worlds is changing. I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it it in the air. The set-up remains bullish but my caution level are at extreme high. Today Fed came out with continuation of QE. The market reaction however seems to indicated the the high induced by FOMC promises of unlimited QE is progressively getting weaker. Here is the 5 minute chart of today's day session trading.

$ES_F : 1544 - 1557 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 12:53:00 +0000

Cyprus Fears seems to be discounted in pre-market.

However caution is required until the dust settled.

Cyprus parliament has rejected the deposit levy leaving the crisis in limbo. No one knows when their banks will open and what will happen when they do indeed open. May be EU will relent and renegotiate and send a bundle of cash for bail-out without demanding bail-in. May be Russia will step up to the plate and bail out an old friend in return for military and gas exploration rights. May be Cyprus will leave Euro all together and go in the arms of Russia. And in all these uncertainties the markets are enjoying, completely reversing the fall yesterday. Is this a bull trap? Is this a sign of strength of the market? I do not know. All I can see is that markets are bullish and short set-up is again broken. I will keep a keen eye on news from Europe until the mess is resolved. There is FOMC announcement today which is not likely to cause much unless Bernanke starts talking about reducing liquidity.

$ES_F : 1544-1556 : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 18:50:00 +0000

Cyprus problem is not a small problem.

Short Set-Up held and markets looking weak.

The worlds is changing. I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it it in the air. I was suspicious of the market price action yesterday to the bad news from Cyprus and wrote this reply to a bullish tweet on twitter. The problem which started at the tiny island of Cyprus is deteriorating. The banks are closed until Thursday 21st March 2013. They cannot open banks without passing the bail-out bill or else it will result in tremendous bank run and will collapse the banking system in Cyprus and along with that in Europe. The government is not able to pass the bail-out bill which imposes punitive raid on bank deposits. There are rumours that Finance Minister has offered to resign as if that is going to help the situation. UK is sending a plane full of cash to Cyprus to assist British personnel in case the banking system is not operational. These are the kind of news which cannot be brushed away. Coupled with the fact that we are near the resistance levels in markets, it is ripe for a decent pull-back or correction. And whatever the politicians say, grabbing bank deposits sets a very bad precedent. Once a vampire tastes blood ..... Here is the 5 minute chart of today's day session trading.

$ES_F : 1544 - 1556 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 12:57:00 +0000

Possible attempt at all time high likely.

1540 is key level for bulls to defend.

I have not been able to trade much of last week due to my other business commitments but as I can see, markets have been range bound progressively grinding higher. My chart still had 1552 - 1542 marked and I see we are still trading around there.

A few things stand out. Markets have made a new high after another new highs and grinding higher. All attempts by sellers fizzle out within 1 - 2 hours of trading and then the grind upward starts. Even bad news like Cyprus have no impact on the tone of the market and markets are making smart recovery. But I feel a lot of protection buying is going on at these levels and it is visible from the action in VIX. I am also buying protection 2 - 3 years out at 1000-800 level. A cheap insurance sort of for a calamity event.

Jogging Through Historical Mottingham, Chislehurst, Petts-Wood and Bromley

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:30:00 +0000

Nearly 10.5 miles route via gentle hilly terrain.

World war II gun site, wood lands and parks.

To celebrate completing 125 miles (nearly – just 2 miles left – it can be called a rounding error) running since I started using Runtastic app for tracking my jogging activities, I decided to write about a new route I took this weekend. Since I started using Runtastic I have managed to use it in 3 countries. My last post about running in Hong Kong is here.

I try to do a moderately long run (6+ mile) every weekend. Well it may not be long by standards of some who run a marathon or longer but for me who started road running since July 2012, it is long enough.

What amazed me is that in our usual day to day chores we forget to witness many historically significant spots. For example I could not imagine that a place near my daughters school, just 70 years ago was a world war II gun site protecting London. The dark skies above the rolling woodlands constantly lit up by the gun fire and the silence of night broken by the the splattering sound of shots and clanking of shells falling on concrete floor below.

The weather was too cold and freezing for me to remove my gloves and take pictures from my blackberry. Instead I took mental notes and then searched internet for the links of the places I passed on this route. None of the pictures (expect the screen shot of my phone above) are mine and copyrights of the original owners are duly acknowledged.

The Route

$ES_F : Market Recap

noreply@blogger.com (vs_trader) — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 20:29:00 +0000

A pause in rally

Expiry weekend choppiness

I was not trading today hence it will be a short update. I was bullish at the start of the day and market did make a new bull market high at 1551.75 in overnight markets. After opening neutral, markets attempted to rally but met resistance near highs and dropped without any pause until 1543. I had overnight position for which I had set stop at overnight session low. That was closed finally at 1546.50 and now I do not have any open position. After hitting the lows of 1541.75, markets were two sided and balanced and closed near VWAP. This is the first time in many days markets have closed red and there is likely to be a follow-up tomorrow and possible test of 1539-36 support zone before it can be determined what directions market are taking for the expiry.

I flattened my stock portfolio. Added F/DFS long and BIDU/RHT/AKAM short and balancing hedge on SPY.