WalesOnline - Rugby

Stepping Stones and Wales captains

2009-07-02T13:33:15Z

I was over at the Millennium Stadium in the ex-players' Wrex bar on Thursday morning, where it was revealed a team of 15 Wales captains will climb Mount kilimanjaro to raise funds for the Stepping Stones Appeal, supporting lung cancer research.

With sponsorship backing from brewers Brains, fifteen former Wales skippers will be joined by current national coach Warren Gatland on a climb to the summit in September 2010.
The initiative is the brainchild of Wales team photographer Huw Evans, whose wife Sue, a non-smoker, contracted the disease last November.
Scott Gibbs, Scott Quinnell, Paul Thorburn and Ryan Jones were all there to promote it, and all of them apart from Jones who will obviously have playing commitments, have agreed to do the walk.
Gareth Thomas, Jonathan Davies, Rob Howley, Rob Jones, Jonathan Humphreys, Mark Taylor, Eddie Butler, Colin Charvis, Jonathan Humphreys, Mike Hall, and Bleddyn Bowen, are among the others who are embarking on the expedition which is open to members of the public who can contribute a minimum of £10,000 to the appeal (limited places).
It was great to see the way ex-players and current ones alike are rallying around, not just because it is a terrific cause but also out of loyalty and friendship to Huw, whose professionalism and personality is hugely valued by all in the Welsh set-up.
And the added bonus of being over there on Thursday was the chance to talk to Gibbs, Quinnell and Jones about the Lions.
Gibbs, looking trimmer than I have seen him for some time, told me how impressed he has been with Jamie Roberts this tour.
The comparisons between the two are obvious given their respective power in the inside-centre position, but Gibbs said he didn't feel he had haldf the ability Roberts has.
Perhaps he was just being modest.
He also made the point that for all the furore over Schalk Burger's eye-gouging, which he condemned totally, the Lions need to realise that they were beaten physically by the Boks over the course of the tour.
In particular Gibbs said he found the complaining about the physicality of the Souther Kings clash in Port Elizabeth four days before the first Test was a bit naive on the Lions' part.
As for Ryan, he looked chilled and quite content despite his somewhat arduous summer.
He congratulated the Welsh Lions on their performances in South Africa and said their return as better players and stronger personalities could only have a beneficial effect on the Wales team.
Let's hope he's right.
If you are interested in the Stepping Stones appeal and wish to contribute towards the Kilimanjaro expedition go to huw@huwevansagency.com.

* Before I go, a word on selection for the third Test between the Lions and South Africa on Saturday.
For me, the inclusion of Martyn Williams from the start is well-deserved and overdue and I think that is why Joe Worsley has been picked, to provide balance between the creative and the destructive.
I also feel Shane Williams might just prove a few doubters wrong in his first Test start. I think he just about merits it given that none of the other wings have set the world on fire.
A word too for James Hook. His place on the bench is just what he deserved for a splendid tour mostly as a replacement.

Burger ban joke

2009-06-29T10:10:43Z

The measly eight-week ban handed to Schalk Burger for 'making contact with the face in the eye area' is an appalling blow to the quest to eradicate one of the most heinous acts of foul play from the game.

I say quest, but you have to wonder whether there is actually a quest at all to deal with this in a manner that is going to have any sort of significant effect.
Burger will end up missing half of the forthcoming Tri-Nations. Big deal.
In my view, he should not have played again for the rest of the year.
Like so many things in life, it seems we will have to wait for something really serious to happen before an effective deterrent is put in place.
How long will it be before a player goes for the eyes of a fellow professional and ends up permanently damaging his sight?
Then there will inevitably be total uproar and a longer ban than we have yet seen, but of course then it will be too late.
When it comes to gouging It should be the recklessness of the act that is punishable, not the consequences. For once, why can't we be proactive instead of reactive?.
If the rugby authorities are serious when they say they are determined to stamp this out, then they have to take a lead when culprits come before them in the dock.
For me, any proven incident of wilful gouging should carry a minimum six month ban.
Clubs, provinces etc could then start writing into player contracts that any ban for gouging will give them the right to terminate deals with immediate effect.
Watch as this offence disappears when players know their livelihoods could be at stake.
Sound dramatic? Perhaps it is, but not half as dramatic as losing your eyesight.

Burger fiasco

2009-06-28T11:36:00Z

There is no debate to be had about whether Schalk Burger should have been red-carded against the Lions on Saturday.

He should have gone. End of story.
Just to make matters worse, we were then subjected to a load of garbled nonsense from the mouth of Springbok coach Peter de Villiers after the match.
"I don't think it should have been a card at all," he said.
"For me and for everybody, this is sport. This is what it is all about. This is great if everything is clear cut in this environment we are in we shouldn't try to prepare even.
"What people think and what people say to us is their opinion and we honour their opinion but it doesn't mean we all agree with it."
If you can make sense of that you are a better decipherer than me. I can only conclude it is just confused gobbledygook from a bloke without a leg to stand on.
In my opinion referee Christophe Berdos bottled the decision, he just couldn't bring himself to send Burger off at such an early stage.
The touch judge told Berdos that it was "at least a yellow card", so why didn't Berdos ask him if it should be a red?
Eye-gouging is rarely picked up by officials during the course of a match, it is almost always something that TV pictures reveal later.
Depressingly, it is on the increase in the game at the same time as being one of the most heinous things that can go on on a field of play.
The rugby authorities have made it clear they intend to deal harshly with offenders and the minimum eight week ban is proof of that.
But if eye-gouging carries a 12-week ban, how can it not carry a straight red card also?
For me, officials should be made to explain such decisions to the media afterwards.
As for de Villiers, he needs either to be hit with a disrepute charge by the International Board, or to seriously examine the logic of his future utterances before he loses his credibility entirely.

Who the Lions should bring in

2009-06-22T13:33:09Z

It's high time Martyn Williams started a Lions Test match after eight years of waiting to do so.

It's not that David Wallace was a disaster there in the first Test defeat to the Springboks, but I just think that the Nuggett has been waiting so long he is almost certain to deliver a performance of some class.
As a forager and as a link man he has no peer, and if the Lions are to level the series they are going to have to put some air on the ball.
They won't win it through any arm-wrestle, so I say get Martyn in. It's not as if choosing him represents some big gamble is it? Not with all his experience.
If I was picking the side then in the back row I would go with Tom Croft, Martyn Williams and Andy Powell, yes Andy Powell.
He has shown some rough edges on tour and has lost the ball in contact too often, but I can't believe he won't have more of an influence on proceedings than Jamie Heaslip had at the weekend.
Don't count Powell or Martyn out of the equation just because they are starting on Tuesday night against the Emerging Springboks either.
There is also the Shane Williams question.
He was written off in the build-up to the first Test because of his indifferent form, but Ugo Monye's failure to dot down those two try scoring chances just showed the value of having a arch-finisher in the ranks.
Say what you like about Shane, but he knows where the line is and how to get the ball down - and his record proves as much.
He more than anyone exemplifies the fact that finishing is an art in itself in rugby, like putting the ball in the back of the net in football.
I bet the Boks were glad not to see Shane in Durban. My feeling is that class is permanent. He would play at Loftus Versfeld if it were up to me.
And so would James Hook.
Provided he is passed fit after his bang to the head, I think McGeechan has to be bold and give him his head at number 10.
His form in small patches up to now has been excellent and I think he will ask more questions of a shaky South African defence than his competitors for that role.
However, I can't see this happening, there will be too much at stake for McGeechan to risk him from the start. If he's fit, the morer realistic prospect is that he will bench.
I reckon that unless O'Gara has an absolute blinder then Stephen Jones will keep the fly-half jersey on the basis that his flat-passing buys time for the Roberts-O'Driscoll centre axis.
As for the front row, it is already inked in as far as I'm concerned - it's Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees and Adam Jones.
Which just leaves us with the engine room of second row.
Will they keep Alun Wyn Jones as a front jumper next to O'Connell - who will keep his place come what may - or go for the more abrasive attributes of Simon Shaw or Nathan Hines.
They may even decide the best way to get O'Connell out of his shell is to partner him wioth his Ireland sidekick Donncha O'Callaghan.
I can't call this one, we'll have to wait and see. But one thing is certain, we need to see more balance and harmony in the second row in Pretoria.

Cheer up Geech

2009-06-18T12:20:00Z

There were no major surprises in the Lions Test team, but I couldn't help but notice the rather downbeat demeanour of head coach Ian McGeechan.

He droned through most his explanations as if the team he had picked was the best of a bad bunch.
Either that or he got very little sleep the previous night due to a prologed selection headache.
Captain Paul O'Connell didn't exactly inspire too. Perhaps the needling about his worthiness to be in the side has finally got to him.
We certainly need to see the Irishman go up a huge number of gears against the Boks on Saturday from what he has produced thus far.
The one thing I don't want to see him do is receive the ball from the base of a ruck off a standing start and then steam into contact and fail to get over the gain line.
If the Lions do not have go-forward around the fringes then they have nothing.
It is already being mooted - probably unfairly at this stage - that O'driscoll could end up as skipper for the final two Tests with O'Connell dropped altogether unless he ups his game.
But that would be a monumental call on McGeechan's behalf even if it not without precedent.
Englishman Mike Campbell-Lamerton was replaced by Wales' Dai Watkins on the 1966 tour of New Zealand after the Lions lost the first Test heavily and the original skipper pronounced he would "rather die" than go though such humiliation again.
However, this is the modern era and the effect any demotion of O'Connell would have on the party as a whole would need to be taken into consideration.
If, heaven forbid, it were to come to that, then McGeechan would have to be a desperate man in the last chance saloon.
Arguably the biggest task O'Connell has on his hands in the build-up to the big game in Durban is ensuring that his Lions believe they can win.
Can he and McGeechan convince their peers with whatever sterling words they have in their heads?
For me the Boks are going to have to be significantly off the pace for the Lions to stand any chance, but as Mike Phillips pointed out in the Western Mail at the start of the week, this is a must-win game for the tourists.
If they have to come from 1-0 behind at altitude against the world champions then they are as good as out of it, the quest for legendary status will be over.
Let's hope we don't arrive at that scenario because the Lions desperately need a landmark victory to restore some credibility to the threat the four-quartered badge is supposed to represent.
You have to go back to Brisbane and 2001 to find the last time they won, Graham Henry's mob beating Australia in the opening Test only to then lose the series 2-1.
Saturday's game carries a significance no other international game can match, these encounters come around so infrequently.
Fingers crossed that for once we are pleasantly surprised, though if McGeechan's mood is anything to go by the Lions are in for a pasting.

Lions shake-up

2009-06-11T10:10:20Z

With four games now gone, I'm a little clearer in my own mind about the likely Lions line-up for the first Test against South Africa on Saturday week.

For me, the back line will be as follows:

15 Lee Byrne
14 Tommy Bowe
13 Brian O'Driscoll
12 Jamie Roberts
11 Luke Fitzgerald
10 Stephen Jones
9 Mike Phillips

I reckon the half-backs are shoo-ins given the way they have both played.
Phillips was outstanding again against the Sharks while it was interesting to see that Stephen was left out altogether on a night when Ronan O'Gara did little to enhance his cause, with wasteful kicking away of possession his biggest crime.
Jones can only play himself out of the picture now and I don't see that happening if he plays against Western Province or the invitational side that is being put together for next Tuesday (fast looking like a waste of time that one).
Byrne, Bowe and the centre partnership are in the same boat - their form makes them virtual certainties and so therefore it is only at left wing where there's real debate still to be had.
It just hasn't happened for Shane Williams, though I wouldn't count him totally out of it just yet.
The amount of action he has seen shows us that the management team have done everything they can to get him involved on June 20.
Shane didn't do anything drastically wrong in Durban on Wednesday night, but nothing came his way either and when his team scores five tries you'd really expect him to have got at least one of them.
I'd put his chances at 65-35 against at the moment, which is a pity because on his A game the little wizard has an X-factor that none of his rivals can boast.
I was veering towards Ugo Monye to occupy the left wing berth before last night, but I have to say I was mightily impressed with the sharpness of Fitzgerald on the left flank and have given him my nod on that basis together with the fine form he showed in the Six Nations.

Up front, my choices would be:

1 Gethin Jenkins
2 Lee Mears
3 Adam Jones
4 Nathan Hines
5 Paul O'Connell
6 Tom Croft
7 David Wallace
8 Jamie Heaslip

The ones who pick themselves in the forward pack are Mears at hooker, who was once again impressive against the Sharks, the captain O'Connell and, well, that's just about it for me.
The others are all open to argument. I go for Gethin at looseahead and not Andrew Sheridan because while the Welshman may not be as powerful in the scrum, what he gives elsewhere is vastly more than the Englishman can offer.
For me too, the perception that Jenkins is weak in the set-piece is without real foundation.
At tighthead I've gone for the solidity of Adam Jones who hasn't put a foot wrong.
Scotland's Euan Murray was disappointing against the Cheetahs, while Phil Vickery doesn't cut it in my eyes, his sin-binning against the Sharks moments after coming on also blotted his copybook.
The one thing in the former England captain's favour though is his aggression at the breakdown.
He has been one of the few who has simply blasted opponents away at rucks.
In the engine room it's about who partners O'Connell and the abrasive Hines edges a very close call with Alun Wyn Jones on my card.
I think Alun Wyn will make the bench, but Hines' edge will I think be favoured against the imposing Bok double-act of Matfield and Botha.
Behind them, with the injured Stephen Ferris out of the equation, it will be a major surprise if Tom Croft does not claim the blindside duties.
I don't think Ryan Jones would let anyone down in the role, but his late arrival as a replacement gives him little time to make a good case.
At seven, Martyn Williams' lack of game time is also likely to account for him with David Wallace very impressive against the Sharks on Wednesday.
Completing my line-up is Heaslip who doesn't really excite me but gets the nod because he has been the best of a fairly ordinary bunch at No.8.
Though to be fair to the Leinster man, he too did himself the power of good with an industrious display in Durban on Wednesday.
I can see Andy Powell making the bench as the ideal impact player.

My Lions first Test team:

15 Lee Byrne
14 Tommy Bowe
13 Brian O'Driscoll
12 Jamie Roberts
11 Luke Fitzgerald
10 Stephen Jones
9 Mike Phillips
1 Gethin Jenkins
2 Lee Mears
3 Adam Jones
4 Nathan Hines
5 Paul O'Connell
6 Tom Croft
7 David Wallace
8 Jamie Heaslip

Lions still unbeaten...just

2009-06-09T12:25:48Z

After last Saturday's slow start against The Royal XV the British & Irish Lions came to life at last with a crushing display against an awful Golden Lions 15 at Ellis Park last wednesday.
The men in red went straight through the gears, smashing any resistance on their way to notching up an impressive 74-10 score. Pretty much the whole team played with passion, intelligence, power and most importantly with pace. To see Tom Croft accelerating away for his try and Ferris doing a fine impression of Pierre Spies was a joy to watch.
But, lets not get carried away. The Golden Lions team was terrible. The 26-24 win against the Cheetahs just goes to show how tough this tour is. And the Cheetahs came last in the Super 14.
A big worry at the moment seems to be the lack of commitment shown by his fellow team mates to captain O'Connells leadership skills. When O'Driscoll captained against the Golden Lions he inspired the players around him and the whole team seemed to respond to his try scoring display. O'Connell though, great player as he is, just doesn't seem to have the star quality that is so obvious in an inform O'Driscoll. Did McGeehan get the captaincy right? We'll find out soon enough as the next few games will be a big ask for the Lions against the Sharks and Western Province.
I would think the test side will be close to completion in the selecters minds after the Sharks game but firstly the Lions must win. It's vital the pack turn up, and O'Connell as captain needs a much improved individual display. He will have to inspire his charges to the biggest performance on tour to date, if he can't then surely the coaches will be looking for someone with that X factor that could inspire the Lions to test victory. Is that someone a certain Brian O'Driscoll?

A right Royal bashing please!

2009-05-29T14:22:51Z

Come 2pm Saturday afternoon all the talk coming out of the British & Irish Lions camp of tradition, honour and team bonding goes flying out the window to be replaced by a snarling rag bag bunch called The Royal XV.
The Royal XV may not be the toughest opposition the Lions will face on this tour but this is massive match. The Lions must bash this team into oblivion to make a serious marker. The minute the ref blows for the start of the match every collision, scrum, lineout has to have a precision and a ferocity that will send a message to every Springbok player and coach that this Lions team is here on a mission. The mission is to win every match, never take a backward step and to right the wrongs of the 2005 catastrophe.
The Boks love the physical stuff and will pack a huge punch so it's up to the Lions front five to produce a thunderous performance, one that will make John Smit and co sweat a little more under the highveld sun.

LIONS PLAYERS to watch:
Earls and Roberts.
If the pack produces good ball these two could run riot

British & Irish Lions v Royal XV
15. Lee Byrne (Ospreys/Wales)
14. Tommy Bowe (Ospreys/Wales)
13. Keith Earls (Munster/Ireland)
12. Jamie Roberts (Cardiff Blues/Wales)
11. Shane Williams (Ospreys/Wales)
10. Ronan O'Gara (Munster/Ireland)
9. Mike Blair (Edinburgh/Scotland)
8. Andy Powell (Cardiff Blues/Wales)
7. Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues/Wales)
6. Joe Worsley (London Wasps/England)
5. Paul O'Connell (Munster/Ireland) captain
4. Simon Shaw (London Wasps/England)
3. Adam Jones (Ospreys/Wales)
2. Matthew Rees (Scarlets/Wales)
1. Andrew Sheridan (Sales Sharks/England)

Penalty shoot-out solution

2009-05-06T10:57:47Z

I wouldn't completely dismiss the merits of a penalty shoot-out to decide rugby matches, despite the outcry from traditionalists in the wake of the Blues-Leicester lottery last Sunday.

The fate that befell Martyn Williams was cruel in the extreme and granted, a player of his standing was utterly underserving of such torment.
But the theatre, drama and spectacle did, if you ask me, have it's plusses.
To me, a lot of the moaning about last Sunday's climax was valid, but some of it has also carried a hint of rugby snobbery.
It was if the sport couldn't bare even the faintest likeness to a deciding method many assumed would always be in the domain of football, and wanted to stay above a process that inevitably produces a pantomime villain.
Rugby's brotherhood - diluted in the professional era, but still strong enough - seemed to object more than anything to one of it's most upstanding members being subjected to ignominy and to hell with needing to find a winner.
But that's just it. When two teams are locked together in such a fashion, there has to be a way of separating them.
And none of the possible choices of doing it are ever going to satisfy everyone.
There has been a call for play to just be continued until one or the other team scores, but there are two key reasons why this should not, and will not, happen.
The first is the physical danger to players of doing this, despite the fact that they are fitter now than ever they were.
There is only so long you can ask a bunch of guys to hammer the living daylights out of one another before dehydrated limbs and minds need just capitulate.
Quite frankly, watching sheer exhaustion decide a high profile encounter such as a Heineken semi-final would in many ways be as ghoulish as any other alternative.
The second point to remember is how unpalatable playing on indefinitely would be to the broadcasters.
Now in an ideal world they wouldn't matter and from a pure fairness point of view they shouldn't come into it.
But in the modern rugby world we know that television is king - I give you Six Nations matches on a Friday night if you're in any doubt.
Just imagine producers, directors and schedulers being told a game could go on for another five, 10, 15 or even 45 minutes with no certainty involved whatsoever.
What would the BBC tell viewers waiting for Gardeners' World? More to the point, when could Sky get in it's next batch of adverts?
No, those who pump the real money into the game would just never countenance such a situation.
Which leaves me with my own humble idea for the next time we find ourselves still needing a winner after 100 minutes of play.
I say stick with the shoot-out, but make it fairer by taking out the prospect of someone like Williams, a non-kicking forward, having to step up.
Instead, three kickers should be nominated at the end of extra-time by each side, obviously those more used to the discipline - for example, the Blues could have put up Ben Blair, Nick Robinson and Leigh Halfpenny.
They should start with one attempt each from the centre of the 22 metre line.
If, as is likely, they are all successful, then they walk along the line to a spot halfway between the centre of the pitch and the touchline and try again.
If they still can't be separated, they then move to the touchline itself until someone is unsuccessful.
At each point of the pitch it should be a sudden death situation, so if one misses and the other scores, it's over.
That way, you are asking specialists to hold their nerve under pressure in a fair contest not about distance, but sheer accuracy. Where's the harm in that?
And the chances are that, given kicking percentages from wide out, a solution, just like in football, will be arrived at fairly rapidly.
The nature of rugby and it's scoring system, as opposed to football, means that reaching that stage will thankfully hardly ever occur.
But when it next does, the process needs to be accepted, even if in some quarters it remains reviled.
Don't get me wrong, last Sunday did leave a sour taste.
Nobody saw a shoot-out coming and when it did it unfolded with the awful realisation that it did neither side any real justice.
But the important thing now is lessons are learned.
The authorities have a duty to look again at events of Sunday and come up with a formula to ensure openside flankers aren't asked to execute something they never do in order to get their team into a final.
In my opinion that needn't mean the shoot-out is ditched from the oval ball game, just it's method improved.

Rather you than me Mauger

2009-05-01T09:23:28Z

Considering I am presently lying at home recuperating from surgery on a prolapsed disc, it is no surprise that the race for fitness of Leicester centre Aaron Mauger has caught my attention.

In a bid to make Sunday's Heineken Cup semi-final against Cardiff Blues, the All Black centre has travelled to Germany to see the renowned Dr Hans Muller-Wolfhart, the medic who has worked wonders in the past for Michael Owen (the England footballer, not the former Dragons No8) and marathon queen Paula Radcliffe.
Mauger's problem? A rogue disc that has been pressing on a nerve root causing him to lose feeling in one leg from time to time.
It is a condition that has plagued yours truly for the best part of two years and rather than go into the manifold woes of suffering it, I will simply say believe me, you don't ever want it.
It is disconcerting in the extreme affecting, as it does, your balance, it is almost always accompanied by pain elsewhere in the lower back and legs and when you have it, playing rugby is just about the last thing in the world you would feel comfortable doing.
Thankfully, after an operation last Friday undertaken by Dr Greg Jones - a consultant orthopedic surgeon who has helped save the careers of several rugby stars down the years - at the wonderful St Joseph's Hospital in Newport, I am well on the mend.
But the experience has made me feel for anyone with similar symptoms.
Mauger won't have reached the stage I did or he wouldn't even be entertaining playing this weekend, but he will neverthless be feeling fragile given that the spine is the epicentre of the body's entire range of movement (I've researched this you know!).
He is supposedly touch and go to play at the Millennium Stadium having sampled a range of Dr Muller-Wolfhart's "homeopathic" remedies including taking a substance derived from crushed pink cockerels' combs.
The New Zealander claims the treatment has "got me moving again". Well, good luck to him if it has. I know one thing, crushed cockerels' combs weren't on the dinner menu at St Joseph's.
Mauger, if he makes it, will know for certain how effective his alternative diet has been when he is confronted by Jamie Roberts hurtling full pelt at him, probably at around 3.03pm on Sunday.
And without wishing to sound heartless about a fellow sufferer, I'd advise the Blues to target the Kiwi like DCI Gene Hunt's Audi Quattro targets the fast lane.
"Having Aaron fit and raring to go will be massive for us," said Leicester coach Richard Cockerill.
"He's had two visits to Munich, he's responding well and there's a good chance he will be fit."
I would humbly advise Cockerill to ensure that fit means 100 per cent fit, otherwise for all Mauger's value, the Tigers could find their plans disrupted by enforced change early doors.
For me, the theme this Sunday will be overwhelmingly one of physicality.
Forget the notion of a Welsh rapier against an English bludgeon, you don't beat Leicester unless you have been to the trenches with them and managed to dodge every piece of brutish artillery thrown at you.
In what is a genuine 50-50 call, the team that prevails will be the team that wins the collisions - and the Blues bow to nobody on that front these days.
In open play, I do not see the likes of Xavier Rush, Maama Molitika or Roberts taking a backward step in any situation, though it could be different in the scrums.
Leicester are certain to target the one area the Blues have appeared vulnerable, meaning that Rush's work off the base in putting his team back on the front foot with his trademark charges is going to be vital.
I believe that if Leicester win this match it will be because they have wreaked havoc at the scrum, it is up to the Blues to limit the damage enough to be able to make their superiority in other areas count.
I make it 60-40 in the Blues' favour going into this one. If it goes wrong it will more likely be because they have lost it rather than Leicester winning it, the attacking threat of the English side behind the scrum being distinctly limited.
Whatever, brace yourself for a true red letter day in the Welsh game which I hope sees supporters from other parts of Wales turn up to roar on Dai Young's boys.
The Blues to win by six.

Some Heineken reality please

2009-04-28T14:27:32Z

There has been excited talk in some quarters about a race for automatic Heineken Cup qualification between the Dragons and Scarlets in the last few weeks of the Magners League campaign.

The theory has been that with four home games in their run-in, the Blues are almost certain to climb the Magners table, leaving an East v West dust-up to avoid the ignominy of a late May play-off with some Italian minnow for the right to contest the showpiece tournament next term.
Without wishing to dampen people's excitement, I can't help but think it all smacks of two bald men fighting over a comb.
The reason being that everything points to neither side being able to compete for qualification from their pools in the elite tournament next season anyway.
With no participation money on offer from Heineken it's worth pondering the question of whether there is really that much to be gained for either region?
Before going any further, I accept the argument that all teams should aspire to playing at the highest possible level.
I see obvious merit in the claim that players benefit from that and that the kudos of competing with the best has all manner of positive knock-on effects in terms of squad recruitment and gate receipts.
But I also think in the case of the Dragons and Scarlets it is a claim that is overblown in significance.
To have to compete in the second tier European Challenge Cup would be difficult for the Scarlets in particular to stomach because of what they have been traditionally used to.
Granted, with the pressure on them to increase attendances at their new stadium they will want the biggest and best names from the European game to remain on their fixture list.
However, they should still be careful what they wish for.
For the Dragons it is different in my opinion. A season in the Challenge Cup would do them no harm whatsoever.
In their last three Heineken Cup campaigns they have won three matches out of 18, which includes a home defeat in December 2007 to Benetton Treviso.
Yes they had some near misses this year against the likes of Bath and Toulouse, but the bulk of those matches saw their defence re-enact scenes from film classic Rorke's Drift to keep them in it.
Yet in the 2006-07 season, when they played in the Challenge Cup, they reached the semi-final where they lost 46-29 away to Clermont-Auvergne.
The point being that they found their level that season.
To me, the Dragons need a break from making up the numbers in the Heineken Cup, from winning - at best - one out of six and having their limitations and lack of recruitment ambition exposed and hammered by the critics.
Instead, a nice little run in the Challenge Cup would get them feeling better about themselves, a few wins against less powerful English and French clubs might breed a bit more confidence in other competitions like the Magners League, and who knows, it might just save them from having to worry about an Italian play-off the following season.
Let's face it, when you consider some of the English and French sides forced to play in the Challenge Cup, a squad like the Dragons has no real right to be in the higher competition in the first place.
Much of this could also apply to the Scarlets, whose followers need to face up to what their side has become for the time being instead of clinging to the hope that past glories can be revived soon.
The last thing that region needs next season is another spanking in the Heineken Cup pool stages that sparks another raft of disillusion and frustration among their supporters.
It's been said lately that the only thing that can resolve their poor crowds is success on the pitch.
Well, they ain't likely to get that in the Heineken Cup judging by the way their squad is shaping up for next season.
Yes, the Challenge Cup is the Challenge Cup, and does not carry the same prestige.
But the teams in it still have an appeal and if a side like the Scarlets can get some momentum going in the earlier stages and start to sniff the knockouts and, dare I say it, a bit of silverware, the interest - and excitement - down west will snowball.
There will be those who recoil at these thoughts because they see any diminishment of status as repugnant.
But sometimes in sport teams have to go back to go forwards, even if a dose of reality can be hard to swallow.
The Heineken Cup is always held up by coaches in Wales as "the benchmark".
I think for the time being at least, it is a benchmark the Scarlets and Dragons could do without.

No regrets Nicky Robinson

2009-04-27T14:47:15Z

Despite the contrasting fortunes of the two sides - and it doesn't get more contrasting than a 50-12 EDF final rout at Twickenham - Nicky Robinson should have no regrets about his impending move from Cardiff Blues to Gloucester.

There's been much gnashing of teeth about the transfer in recent weeks, with pundits lamenting the timing of it and questioning why one of the best fly-halves Wales is defecting to the English system when seemingly in his pomp.
But I admire Robinson's bravery in making the original decision and do not believe he should now be having second thoughts just because of the scintillating form of the Blues in the last six months.
When Gloucester came in for him around the turn of the year, Robinson obviously took stock of the eight years or so he has spent at the Arms Park and decided, at the age of 27, that it was time he broadened his horizons. Good on him.
At the time he wasn't even being mentioned in the reckoning for the Wales squad never mind being talked about as an outsider for the Lions.
In fact, you have to go back to the summer of 2006 and Wales' tour of Argentina under Gareth Jenkins to find the last time he played for his country.
Robinson has won 12 caps in all, and the reason that figure is not more commensurate with his outrageous talent is his inconsistency.
It is only really this season that he has delivered top performances week in, week out, and on the biggest stages under the pressure of a high profile spotlight.
To be fair to Robinson, he is a bright, honest and articulate fellow, and he would admit himself that consistency has been his problem in the past.
But my point is he has been in Wales long enough and I believe all players benefit from a change in environment whether it is the Guinness Premiership or the Top 14 in France.
Sure, he goes to Kingsholm at a time when the Cherry and Whites are at a low ebb, but in many ways that should make the challenge all the more appealing.
Robinson will not go to Gloucester having to live up to a big name who has just vacated the No10 jersey.
Instead, he can stamp his own mark on the place and show coach Dean Ryan that he is a player around which a new Gloucester side can be built.
One thing is for sure, the Blues' three victories against the English club this season have probably won him an army of fans in the Shed already.
Furthermore, Robinson's switch to Gloucester need not harm his international prospects if he can maintain his current form.
The WRU's edict about Welsh players needing to remain this side of the border to stand a chance of selection has already been made to look like hot air by so many examples.
Let's be under no illusions that if Robinson is producing the goods for Gloucester in high-intensity Guinness Premiership matches then he'll get his call from Warren Gatland - and deservedly so.
And I see no reason why that can't be the case.
I have criticised Robinson in the past for that lack of consistency mentioned earlier, but I've never questioned his abilty and always hoped he would have his day - or days - in the sun.
Well, it seems those days have now finally arrived and good luck to him.
It would be an extraordinary story if he were to get a Lions call-up this summer, but fortunately this year's tour will not be his last chance anyway.
Robinson's long term aim should be to flourish at Gloucester and make himself a shoo-in for 2013 when he will still only be 31.
On the evidence of a heady few months for the Blues, you wouldn't bet against that.

Wrong call Stephen Jones!

2009-04-23T10:59:20Z

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but as he prepares to go on his second Lions tour, what odds Stephen Jones now regrets choosing to go back to the Scarlets rather than join the Blues two years ago?

After a successful stint in French rugby with Clermont-Auvergne, the Blues tried desperately to get Jones to the Arms Park as the proven Test number 10 they have needed for many a season now (at least before the recent heroics of NIcky Robinson, that is) .
But the Scarlets wanted him back too, and in the end a lucrative contract and the lure of his old stomping ground proved too much. The Blues were gutted to lose out, I know for a fact.
When the Scarlets blitzed through their Heineken Cup pool in the 2006-07 season and the Blues were still European also-rans, it would have appeared Jones had made the right choice.
Not now though.
Jones is 32 and so probably has another two, at best three, seasons left in him in top flight regional rugby.
It is a crying shame that he appears condemned to spend those years as part of a Scarlets' side very much rebuidling and not in any race as genuine contenders for silverware.
Financial prudence appears top of the agenda at Parc y Scarlets right now, and so without any big money recruits on the horizon, the extent of the team's ambitions in the near future will be to somehow keep their supporters happy with a damage limitation exercise.
Jones' loyalty to the Scarlets is not in question, but who in his position would fancy that at this stage of their career?
Compare that to his new Lions team mate Ronan O'Gara who is of similar age. He can look forward to a continuing armchair ride behind the Munster pack and to being in contention to carry on lifting all the major prizes.
The Blues would still love to bring Jones on board as they move to their new stadium in tandem with Cardiff City, but unfortunately for them - and, you could argue, for Jones - that boat has now sailed.
Jones is under contract to the Scarlets and with him, Regan King and Mark Jones representing their only remaining crown jewels, there is no way the hierarchy down west would entertain allowing him to go, let alone to one of their Welsh rivals.
In any case, how would it look if Jones, so revered in that part of the world, was seen to be deserting a sinking ship in favour of a move to city slickers Cardiff? The natives would be re-erecting gallows at Kidwelly Castle if it ever came to pass.
Blues fans may well lament the day they lost the chance to sign Jones, though it was down to no lack of effort on the part of head coach Dai Young.
Because with Nicky Robinson on his way to Gloucester his experience and controlling influence would be just what the doctor ordered.
Yes, Aussie Sam Norton-Knight is on his way, but the jury is out on him as a regular outside-half with him being more accustomed to the full-back role.
However, there's no going back on anything when it comes to Jones and the Blues.
The prospect of that move was killed off two years ago and it won't be revived now.
Jones will have to make do with life at the Scarlets as his career winds down post-Lions.
The way things look down there at present, few would envy him.

Scott Johnson's arrival

2009-04-17T16:58:51Z

Scott Johnson was his usual unusual self as he was unveiled to the media as the new Ospreys head honcho on Friday afternoon.

Flanked by elite performance director Andrew Hore and managing directors Mike Cuddy and Roger Blyth, the Australian dipped into his extensive back catalogue of mantras and life sayings as he outlined his hopes for the future.
No surprise to hear him say that he had signed his three-year contract via a text to Cuddy that read simply "I'll come".
You see, Johnson has always said he doesn't do contracts, so whether he has actually put pen to paper is anyone's guess.
Then again, what are contracts worth in professional sport these days?
Only time will tell whether Johnson has the desired effect with the Ospreys, but he is certainly not the authoritarian figure many believe is needed down there right now.
He was careful not to jump in with his size nines by talking too much about what he has planned, what effect he feels he can have on a malfunctioning squad.
Instead it is clear he does not want to step on the toes of Sean Holley and Jonathan Humphreys at this stage.
Johnson is talking more about observing what those two do for the remaining month of the season and sticking in his "two bob's worth" where he feels he can help.
But he is going to have to grab the bull by the horns sooner or later.
One thing is certain, despite him talking about overseeing the development of younger players and how the "all-encompassing" nature of the job appeals to him, the Ospreys do not want him on board for his administrative and development skills.
No, they want him for his undoubted coaching ability and the more time he spends in his tracksuit on the training ground the better as far as the Ospreys board are concerned.
The "overseeing" can be left to the elite performance director Andrew Hore.
Perhaps the one thing in Johnson's favour is that he joins the Ospreys at a time when they are at their lowest ebb.
Yes they lost 11 on the trot in the first season of their existence but they didn't have the star-studded squad then that they do now, and expectations were nowhere near the levels of today.
Johnson may not deliver the Heineken Cup - as he said, only one team in Europe per season can win that - but I think the Ospreys fans would settle for less if it meant them seeing a more potent style of play and the team punching its weight on a more consistent basis in the highest company.
What Johnson is certainly capable of doing is instilling a sharper edge to their attacking play which has too often lacked an end product this season, for all the stellar talent that resides in their back line.
The Aussie is an innovator and has boundless ideas, so that bodes well for the likes of Shane Williams, who has already talked about how much Johnson improved him as a player during his time on the Wales management.
Whatever, the jury will remain out until next season gets underway in earnest.
But this is an appointment the Ospreys cannot afford to get wrong.

Ospreys shock?

2009-04-06T09:49:26Z

Such has been the chorus of disapproval about the shortcomings of the star-studded Ospreys in the last two weeks, that I've a feeling we might just see a response of some substance when they tackle Munster in their Heineken Cup quarter-final at Thomond Park on Sunday.

Rarely have the Liberty Stadium boys, crammed full as they are with Welsh galacticos, been so comprehensively written off before any encounter.
Munster's formidable home record, coupled with the way they annually make the Heineken Cup their Holy Grail, means it is rare for any team in Europe to visit them as anything other than underdogs.
But Ireland's Grand Slam of last month, together with Wales' relative demise, has only increased the sense of foreboding for the Ospreys.
However, while acknowledging that there is always the possibility things could turn gruesome at Thomond, I'm going to stick my neck out and predict the Ospreys will win in Limerick on Sunday (cue a sharp intake of breath).
For me there was a clue in the 16-13 Magners League win at Ulster on Friday night.
Even if it was by comparison a minor fixture, no team is gifted victory at Ravenhill and the result will have infused some badly-needed confidence into Ospreys ranks.
Furthermore, with Sean Holley able to rest so many front-line players for that clash, the region has effectively had two weeks to prepare for the Munster assignment.
They know what is coming - and there is enough experience in their camp to devise a strategy to deal with it.
And for all the criticism the Ospreys have received about there being no end product to their game, surely no team with the strike-runners they possess can go on being so profligate.
Munster have an iron will, we know that, but they are far from unbeatable. The key for the Ospreys will be to remain unfazed by their reputation and all the Fields of Athenry frenzy that is generated in their cauldron home. It's about believing they are good enough to cause an upset - which they undoubtedly are.
Irish rugby will be on the crest of a wave right now, but so was Welsh rugby last year when the champions-elect Ospreys were humbled by Saracens.
Who knows whether Paul O'Connell and his chums have another bullet left to fire.
Whatever you believe, winning a Grand Slam and a Heineken Cup in the same year is a tall order and sport - as the Ospreys will testify - has a funny way of bringing you down to earth when you least expect it.
So amid a prevailing mood of pessimism, I'm going for the Ospreys to pull off what would rank as Welsh rugby's best ever Heineken Cup result on Sunday.
Though whether I'll put my money where my mouth is at the bookies is another matter!

Cardiff Blues v Toulouse? For me this is almost too close to call, but I'm expecting a rip-roaring occasion whatever the result.
I do not blame the Blues for going next door to the national ground, but all the same I believe it will help the French side psychologically.
That said, such is the Blues' bloody-mindedness at the moment, I wouldn't put it past them for a minute to come through this one.
One thing I would say is that Ben Blair has to be more accurate with his goal-kicking than he was in the EDF semi-final at Coventry the other week. because every point is going to count on Saturday.
This is just a delicious 50-50 that will go to the side that performs best on the day.
I would love it to be Dai Young's boys.