Saturday Event Forecast

This weekend will be filled with moments when it won’t be raining. Unfortunately, the potential exists for some scattered rain to be around, at times, through these next couple of days.  Isolated storms are not out of the question, but severe weather is not expected as of the time of this posting.  By Monday, though, strong storms and even severe weather have the potential to track across the region.

So, if you’re headed out today for all the historical activities they have going on at the Old Fort through 7 PM, just know that you’ll be dodging some scattered rain.  If you end up getting caught in any rain…there’s always tomorrow.  The “Muster on the St. Mary’s” runs on Sunday from 10 AM – 4 PM.

Hail reporting chart, courtesy the National Weather Service

So far, our spring has been very quiet with no severe weather, but we know this won’t last for ever.  While the weather is quiet, I though I bring up this hail chart for measuring hail stones.   First off, never use the term “marbles” to report hail.   Why you ask?  Have you played a game of marbles lately?   If you have, or even if you haven’t, marbles come in different sizes and therefor, are not a accurate way to report exact hail size.

If possible, try to use something that has a standard size, like a golf ball, a tennis ball, or a softball.  Above is a chart correlating hail size to an object and a known diameter.

Drought Monitor (NOAA)

Last year we were bringing almost daily updates to you about the drought. We are hoping this year we will not have to do the same thing. A wet April has led to a fairly dry May so far but that will most like change next week with more showers and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday. There are many tools that the National Weather Service and its parent agency NOAA use to monitor the drought.

NOAA has introduced a web site which has all the tools in one place necessary to monitor drought conditions.  At the web site you can access precipitation and climatological reports which include The Palmer Drought Index.

The Gulfstream V (National Science Foundation/NOAA)

The National Severe Storms Laboratory and two major universities will join forces today for a project to study thunderstorm development. The method is reminiscent of the Hurricane Hunter project which sends aircraft into the eye of the storm to drop probes to study it. This project called   Mesoscale Predictability EXperiment (MPEX) will take this aircraft up to 40,000 feet to research atmospheric conditions before and after thunderstorms. This data will be added to the numerical forecast models which operational meteorologists use everyday to forecast these storms. It is hoped that this data will add insight to these models so meteorologists will have a better idea when and where these storms will strike with even more warning. ]

You can read more about this project here.

Remaining 2013 Weather Radio Programming Dates

Our week of weather radio programming events continues.  For our viewers in the northern section of our viewing area, we’re heading up your way!!  Jonathan Conder and Jesse Hawila will be at the Angola Walgreens from 4-7 PM today to help program your weather radios and say hello!!  After today, we have just 2 stops left…Tomorrow in Van Wert, then Friday in Fort Wayne.  Come learn more about weather radios and meet the team!

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012, shows the storm as it is centered off of Maryland and Virginia. The storm is heading in a northwestern direction towards the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast.

I believe that hurricane Sandy has been one of the most highly scrutinized and written about storms of our time. From the strong emergence of the European Forecast Model and it’s “dead on” predictions for storm movement to the evolution to make it a new category or so called “Super Storm”.

There are really two parts of Sandy and that’s what makes it such an intriguing storm. One of course the extra tropical hurricane part of the storm and other part which baffled scientists and that is the land cyclone that this storm became. It was not only a monster at see but as it made landfall it caused widespread coastal damaged but also combined with another storm to make a power land based storm as well. Certainly not a typical Nor’ Easter by any means. This aspect is what made the storm difficult to forecast and also gave the agencies involved with forecasting the movement of the storms fits.

In fact, The National Hurricane Center stopped issuing forecasts on the storm when they believed that it was a land based storm and did not believe the storm met its requirements to continue coverage. This led to quite a bit of criticism from broadcast meteorologists who thought the uniqueness of this storm should have allowed the Hurricane Center to track it. It also caused many warnings to slip through the cracks and as you probably know the damage was massive.

Here is the Final Assessment from NOAA and some of the changes which have been brought about by this storm coverage.

If you thought Tuesday was warm in the Fort, how about those record high temperatures across parts of Iowa?   Sioux City Iowa landed a high temperature of 106°, which is surprising since they had some snow earlier this month.  Back here in Fort Wayne, our high was 85°, only 5° shy of the record of 90° set back in 1985.

Actually, our high of 85° Tuesday is fairly impressive since we started with a low of 48°.   That’s nearly a 40° rise in the daily temperature which is rare for this part of the county.  If you go back to Sunday morning and our low temperature of 36°, that is nearly a 50° change in temperatures in 72 hours.

The next 72 hours will not bring big swings like this, but more highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

Midland Weather Radio

We are in day two of our Midland Weather Radio programing event. Below you will find a schedule of the remaining events and where to find one near you. So why a weather radio? If there is a siren near your house isn’t that good enough? Keep in mind that sirens are meant to be heard outside and not really an inside warning system. There have been many instances where sirens have failed and the only means of getting a warning was your weather radio. In fact, there was an event in Minnesota last year where the sirens failed but the weather radios activated and lives were saved.

So keep in mind that during situations where quick action is needed a weather radio may be your only source to get the weather warning. After you receive the warning quick action is needed and you can get additional information by watching WANE TV and our meteorologists will be able to give you a current track of the storm and show you what time it will hit your area.