Los Angeles, Cook counties post biggest population losses in U.S. in 2022

By Brett Rowland | The Center Square

March 30, 08:00 AM March 30, 08:00 AM

(The Center Square) – The number of people who used to live in Los Angeles County and Cook County in Illinois continues to plummet.

Los Angeles County posted the largest population decline of all counties in the United States in 2022, falling by 90,704 and continuing a downward trend. It lost nearly twice that amount (180,394) in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 estimates released Thursday.

Cook County, home to Chicago, lost 68,314 people from July 2021 to July of last year.

Los Angeles County was still the most populous county in the U.S. That was followed by Cook County in Illinois at 5,109,292, which declined by 68,314 from the prior year. Rounding out the top five were Harris County, Texas (4,780,913); Maricopa County, Arizona (4,551,524); and San Diego County, California (3,276,208).

Eight of the top 10 most populous counties in the U.S. were located in the South and West. The two exceptions were Cook County in Illinois and Kings County in New York.

"Reflecting longstanding regional population shifts, the nation’s most populous counties are increasingly located in the South and West," the bureau reported. "In 2022, 63 of the country’s 100 most populous counties were located in the South and West, up from 61 in the prior year."

The 10 counties in the U.S. that gained the most people were located in three states: Texas, Arizona and Florida. Maricopa County in Arizona topped the growth list, adding 56,831 people in 2022. It was followed by Harris County, Texas (added 45,626); Collin County, Texas (44,246); Denton County, Texas (33,424); and Polk County, Florida (32,225).

The biggest losers were Los Angeles County, California (-90,704); Cook County, Illinois (-68,314); Queens County, New York (-50,112); Kings County, New York (-46,970); and Bronx County, New York (-41,143).

"The migration and growth patterns for counties edged closer to pre-pandemic levels this year," said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for estimates and projections in the Census Bureau’s population division. "Some urban counties, such as Dallas and San Francisco, saw domestic outmigration at a slower pace between 2021 and 2022, compared to the prior year."

Deaths outnumbered births in most U.S. counties in 2022. Nearly three-quarters of all U.S. counties had natural decrease in 2022, which means they recorded more deaths than births.

"The incidence of natural decrease remains historically high," the bureau reported. "Natural decrease counties are found nationwide but are especially prevalent in some states."

Maine was the only state in the nation where all counties had natural decrease. Deaths outnumbered births in 54 or the 55 counties in West Virginia. And seven of the 10 counties with the highest amount of natural decrease were in Florida. Pinellas County topped the list with -6,468.

Births exceeded deaths in 791 counties (or 25.2% of all counties) in 2022. Five of the top 10 counties where births exceeded deaths, called natural increase, were in Texas. Harris County had the highest in the nation with 30,117.

Americans’ personal finances worst since the Great Recession

By Casey Harper | The Center Square

February 10, 08:50 AM February 10, 08:50 AM

(The Center Square) – Half of Americans report their personal finances are “worse off” than they were a year ago, according to a new survey.

The poll found only 35% of Americans say they are better off than a year ago. The 50% who are worse off is the highest percentage since Gallup began asking the question in 1976, with the exception of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

These figures are worse than even those during the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“In both 2021 and 2022, Americans were evenly divided between saying they were better off versus worse off, including a 41% to 41% split in last year’s survey,” Gallup said.

Other polling shows that many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and building up more credit card debt.

PYMNTS released polling data earlier this month that showed that 64% of U.S. consumers say they are living paycheck to paycheck.

TransUnion Reports that American credit card users' balances increased on average by about 13% from 2021 to 2022.

“Consumers are being pressured on multiple fronts, first by this environment of high inflation, and secondarily by the higher interest rates that the Federal Reserve is implementing to tamp it down,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. "Delinquencies remain in line with historical levels for most credit products. However, levels have been rising over the past year, particularly among subprime consumer segments, and should be monitored in the coming months to look for similar increases in other credit risk tiers.”

Rasmussen Reports released a poll Wednesday showing that 85% of Americans report paying more for groceries now than they did a year ago, and most Americans expect those prices to keep rising.

The survey comes after President Joe Biden touted economic gains since he took office. Biden pointed to the low unemployment rate and a slowdown in inflation.

“Here at home, inflation is coming down,” Biden said. “Here at home, gas prices are down $1.50 from their peak. Food inflation is coming down, not fast enough but coming down.”

Even with a slowdown in the increases, prices are still much higher than when Biden took office, with food prices leading the way.

Republicans hammered those points in their criticism of Biden after his speech, pointing to the higher prices and financial difficulties facing Americans.

“If Joe Biden’s economy’s so good, why do over 70% of Americans think our country is on the wrong track?" Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, said.

Amid ridership struggles, S&P dims transit outlook

By Brett Rowland | The Center Square

January 20, 08:18 AM January 20, 08:18 AM

(The Center Square) – Public transit agencies that can't find new funding or make cuts could face a fiscal cliff, according to the latest report on the sector from S&P Global Ratings.

The credit rating agency gave the public transit sector a negative outlook as challenges pile up for operators while they spend down more than $70 billion in federal aid given out during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Some public transit operators face an operating fund fiscal cliff – especially if they are unable to identify new revenue sources or right-size operations reflecting lower expected ridership levels – once the federal assistance aid now compensating for diminished passenger fare revenues is depleted," according to the S&P report.

In the U.S., public transit ridership peaked in 2014. That year, public agencies reported 10.7 billion unlinked passenger trips. Since that peak, unlinked passenger trips have declined nearly every year. The National Transit Database reported 9.9 billion unlinked passenger trips in 2019. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, unlinked passenger trips plummeted to 4.7 billion, meaning ridership dropped by just over half in one year.

While ridership has recovered from the lows seen in 2020, it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Much of the loss is the result of changes in the workplace, including many workers who go into the office less frequently. Ridership stood at about 67% of pre-pandemic levels in December 2022 and about 56% of 2014's peak, according to S&P.

Courtesy of S&P

Public transit agencies rely on rider fares to pay for a portion of operational costs. With fewer people riding, less money is coming in.

"We expect public transit ridership will only recover to about 85% of pre-pandemic levels by 2026 under our base case and 80% under our downside case," the authors wrote in the report. "Since transit ridership nationwide was experiencing year-over-year declines before the pandemic, we believe it is likely that this metric will not recover to near pre-pandemic levels for a long time, as we see slowly developing demographic trends more likely to affect that growth than public transit experiencing a sudden renaissance."

Some transit agencies have already set about searching for new revenue sources. The Regional Transportation Authority in Illinois – which oversees the Chicago Transit Authority, Metra and Pace Suburban Bus – has proposed 11 tax and fee hikes to make up for declining fare revenue. It also proposed scrapping a state law that requires the agency to recover 50% of operating costs through fare revenue.

The S&P report said the transit agencies that depend on fares will face growing uncertainty as federal aid runs out.

"We expect providers that have looked to fare revenue to support service levels will have to make tough decisions in the near term about sustainable tax and revenue models going forward," according to the report. "As ridership recovery remains slow, we believe the long-term credit quality of many transit operators will depend on their ability to adjust operations and align financial performance to achieve structural balance after federal aid is depleted. Even public transit systems not as dependent on fare revenues face challenges related to weak ridership levels as they balance funding sources and service level while supporting their public missions."

Pennsylvania counties drop in child poverty, jump in elderly poverty

By Anthony Hennen | The Center Square

January 09, 08:49 AM January 09, 08:49 AM

(The Center Square) – Pennsylvania has a generational divide in poverty. While its child poverty rate has dropped in almost two dozen counties in recent years, its elderly poverty rate has risen in almost a dozen counties.

The data, coming from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year estimates, show a national trend of declining child poverty rates, from 21% in 2012-16 to 17% in 2017-21. Though good news, the child poverty rate remains higher than the overall poverty rate of 12.6%.

The elderly poverty rate (those ages 65 and over) was 9.6%, a slight increase from 9.3%, and 3 percentage points lower than the national average.

In the commonwealth, no counties had a statistically significant jump in child poverty, and 21 counties declined. Most of the decreases were in western and southern Pennsylvania: Adams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Berks, Bedford, Blair, Center, Clarion, Clinton, Cumberland, Fayette, Franklin, Indiana, Lancaster, Lycoming, McKean, Philadelphia, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland and York counties.

The highest child poverty rates in Pennsylvania were in Forest (34.8%), Philadelphia (32.7%), and Potter (25.8%) counties, according to the Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.

In contrast, elderly poverty rates increased nationally and in Pennsylvania on the county level. “More counties saw poverty rates among older populations increase than decrease from 2012-2016 to 2017-2021, the opposite of the pattern seen among children,” the Census Bureau said.

Pennsylvania’s pattern was repeated across the region.

“In the Northeast, 0.9% of counties had an increase in child poverty rates but 14.8% of counties showed an increase in the poverty rate of those ages 65 and over,” the bureau said.

The elderly poverty rate went up in Bradford, Clearfield, Clinton, Dauphin, Forest, Lehigh, McKean, Montour, Philadelphia and Pike counties. Only Centre County had a drop in its elderly poverty rate.

As Pennsylvania’s population ages and its workforce shrinks because of out-migration and a falling labor force participation rate, the state’s Independent Fiscal Office has warned that its budget surplus could become a deficit. The expected increase in demand for government services, as The Center Square previously reported, will outpace the increase in tax revenues.

Private-sector employers add 235,000 jobs in December, payroll company reports

Seth Sandronsky | The Center Square contributor

January 06, 01:50 PM January 06, 01:50 PM

(The Center Square) – Private-sector employers added 235,000 new hires across the United States in December, according to the December ADP National Employment Report produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital. Medium and small firms had robust hiring as big companies experienced declining job creation.

“The labor market is strong but fragmented,” said Chief Economist Nela Richardson in a statement, “with hiring varying sharply by industry and establishment size. Business segments that hired aggressively in the first half of 2022 have slowed hiring and, in some cases, cut jobs in the last month of the year.”

ADP’s monthly employment report of more than 25 million U.S. employees delivers a snapshot of the labor market that precedes the Labor Dept.’s employment situation that will be released on Jan. 6. ADP’s report tracks the current month’s total private employment change and weekly job data from the past month, with a pay measure focusing on earnings of nearly 10 million employees over 12 months.

Leisure/hospitality employers, hammered during the beginning of the pandemic, led the way with 123,000 new hires in December. Professional/business services added 52,000 jobs, while education/health services employers had 42,000 new hires.

Turning from the service sector to goods-producing employers, construction firms grew fastest, with 41,000 new hires in December. Meanwhile, manufacturing employers shed 5,000 jobs, and natural resources/mining lost 14,000. Trade/transportation/utilities employers shed 24,000 jobs in December, while financial activities firms lost 12,000 jobs.

By U.S. regions in December, the South had 253,000 new hires, while Midwest employers added 70,000 jobs, and New England payrolls rose 54,000. In contrast, Western employers had 142,000 layoffs.

December’s hiring also varied with the size of the labor force. Small businesses of 1-19 workers had 65,000 new hires, while those with 20-49 employees hired 65,000 workers. Medium-size firms of 50-249 had 191,000 new hires in December, with companies of 250-499 employees adding 32,000 jobs. Large companies of 500-plus employees shed 151,000 jobs last month.

In December, the U.S. economy registered the lowest growth in hourly pay since March 2022. Further, the final month of 2022 also “ushered in the largest decline in pay growth for job stayers in the three-year series history,” according to ADP. “Leisure and hospitality; trade, transportation and utilities; and information sectors had the sharpest declines in pay gains. Job changers’ pay growth also fell to the lowest level in 10 months.”

U.S. Census: Michigan lost 3,391 residents over one-year period

By Scott McClallen | The Center Square

December 31, 09:27 AM December 31, 09:27 AM

(The Center Square) – Michigan lost 3,391 residents between July 2021 and July 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2022 population estimates.

More people moved into the state than out, but deaths outpaced births by 12,482. Michigan experienced 117,639 deaths and only 105,157 births, which, along with the state's dropping birth rate, could threaten Michigan’s status as the 10th most populated state if the trend continues.

Michigan had 18,812 international inbound migrants; however, 8,482 people left the state.

Michigan broke 10 million residents in 2020, but has lost population for two years in a row. More than 40,000 residents have left the state since 2020.

Michigan Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Jim Holcomb called the numbers “disappointing.”

The numbers are disappointing and represent a clear call to action,” Holcomb said in a statement. “The need for pragmatic problem solving and our policymakers working together is more important than ever. While we have a world class workforce, doing more is critical. Michigan job providers are already facing a critical talent crunch. Growing talent and our state’s population with opportunity for all is an essential part of what helps ensure businesses can succeed and builds a stronger economy, communities and Michigan. The chamber is deeply committed to being part of that effort.”

Michigan was one of 18 states that saw population decline.

Net international migration – the number of people moving in and out of the country – added 1 million people between 2021 and 2022 and was the primary driver of growth.

Positive natural change, or births minus deaths, increased the nationwide population by 245,080.

“There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau, said in a statement. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”

The Midwest, with a population of 68.7 million, lost 48,910 residents, or -0.1%, due to negative net domestic migration.

The South was the fastest-growing region last year, with an increase of 1.1%. The West saw an annual rise of 0.2% for a total resident population of 78,743,364, but lost 233,150 residents via net domestic migration.

Florida gained more than 318,000 residents, Texas gained 230,00, and North Carolina gained just under 100,000 residents.

“While Florida has often been among the largest-gaining states, this was the first time since 1957 that Florida has been the state with the largest percent increase in population,” Wilder said.

New Maryland program to help residents with water bill debt

By Brent Addleman | The Center Square

December 29, 08:38 AM December 29, 08:38 AM

(The Center Square) – The state of Maryland is investing $20 million in taxpayer fudning into the Water Assistance Relief Program to support those residents with water bill debt that is directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. Larry Hogan said.

Funding, according to the release, comes from federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Funds.

“We continue to provide ways – especially during the winter months – to help residents who may have difficulty with their water or heating bills,” Hogan said in a news release. “Water systems are encouraged to apply for this funding to ensure savings for customers in the coming months.”

The program, according to the release, features an application period that opens Monday and closes Jan. 31.

According to the release, conditions are in place for those receiving program funding, and water systems are mandated to agree to allocate payments in the form of bill credits. The credits are to appear on a customer’s bill within a specific number of days after receiving payment while waiving late fees and interest.

Credits, according to the release, are designed to cover outstanding debt for residential customers incurred between January 2020 and September 2022.

The state offers assistance through three year-round programs, according to the release, which are administered through the Department of Human Services’ Office of Home Energy Programs. The programs are designed to help with utility bills and prevent any loss of service, including the Maryland Energy Assistance Program, the Electric Universal Service Program, and the Low Income Household Water Assistance Program.

Census data shows little growth in Kentucky population

By Steve Bittenbender | The Center Square contributor

December 28, 09:10 AM December 28, 09:10 AM

(The Center Square) – Data released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau shows Kentucky’s population has increased only marginally over the last two years.

The Bluegrass State had a population of 4,512,310 on July 1, according to the federal agency’s estimate. That was a less than 5,000-person increase from the July 2020 estimate.

Kentucky’s .1% gain over that span ranked 31st among all states and the District of Columbia. Nineteen states suffered population losses, according to the Census estimates.

While the state’s population growth has been near zero during the pandemic, most of Kentucky’s neighboring states have experienced more profound gains or losses.

As has been the case for decades, Tennessee continues to outpace Kentucky in terms of population growth. It grew 1.8% over the same timeframe, with a population estimate of 7,051,339 this year. That ranked 12th among the states.

In terms of actual population increase, the more than 125,000 gain ranked seventh nationally. Kentucky’s population gain ranked 29th.

In the 1970 Census, Tennessee had 3.9 million people, roughly 700,000 more than Kentucky had at that time.

Republicans in the Kentucky legislature have held up Tennessee as a state to emulate in terms of a tax policy that would entice more people to move there. The Volunteer State has no income tax.

Earlier this year, the Kentucky General Assembly passed a tax reform bill that sets financial triggers for lawmakers to reduce the state’s current 5% income tax, with the possibility it will be eliminated completely within several years. When lawmakers convene for the 2023 session starting next week, they’ll have the chance to vote officially to reduce the tax to 4.5%.

Indiana also experienced much faster population growth than Kentucky. The Hoosier State’s estimated population rose from July 2020 to 6,833,037. The nearly .7% increase was 23rd nationally.

Indiana’s numerical increase of more than 44,000 was the 15th highest nationally.

On the other end of the spectrum, Ohio lost more than 40,000 residents over the past two years, and its .4% drop was 43rd nationally.

Illinois, meanwhile, suffered a nearly 1.6% loss in population, a more than 200,000-person decline. Only New York’s 2.1% decline was worse nationally.

The state with the highest rate of population growth was Idaho, which saw a nearly 4.9% jump over the last two years.

The Census Bureau found Texas had the highest net population gain of more than 797,000, while California’s loss of more than 472,000 was the biggest loss of any state.

Census: New York lost more people than any other state

By Steve Bittenbender | The Center Square contributor

December 25, 10:03 AM December 25, 10:03 AM

(The Center Square) – Data from the U.S. Census Bureau released Thursday showed New York has lost a greater percentage of its population over the last two years than any other state.

The state’s population estimate as of July 1, 2020, was 20.1 million people, a nearly 100,000 decline from just three months earlier and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. A year later, the estimated population was slightly less than 19.9 million, and this past July, the Census Bureau estimated the Empire State had a population of nearly 19.7 million.

The 2.1% decrease in population was the highest loss of any state. New York was one of 19 states that lost residents, according to Census projections, over the past two years.

Critics have noted New York’s population decline for years. While the state actually saw its population grow by more than 4% from 2010 to 2020, it still lost a seat in Congress in the upcoming term as other states grew at a faster rate.

But the state also saw people leave New York City in droves as the pandemic hit the area hard nearly three years ago. Empire Center for Public Policy Founder E.J. McMahon noted in a blog post Thursday, domestic migration data showed the state had nearly 300,000 more people move out than relocate there.

“Over the combined two-year period, New York has lost a net 651,742 residents to other states — exceeding the combined populations of Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse,” McMahon wrote.

Republican leaders have pointed to Democratic policies as major reasons for the state’s population losses. In particular, they’ve criticized bail reforms and the state’s high tax rates for causing the exodus.

“Since becoming Leader, I have heard from countless New Yorkers who are fed up with rising costs, rising crime, and a lack of checks and balances in our State Capitol,” Republican Senate Leader Rob Ortt, R-North Tonawanda, said in a statement last month. “Our state’s rapidly declining population reflects that sentiment.”

On the other end of the spectrum, Census data revealed Idaho had the highest population gain of any state. With more than 1.9 million residents, the roughly 90,000 increase from 2020 to this year represented a 4.9% jump.

Arizona's population growth leads the West in latest Census estimate

By Cole Lauterbach | The Center Square

December 25, 09:58 AM December 25, 09:58 AM

(The Center Square) – More than 94,000 people are calling Arizona home than they did amid the waning months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The U.S. Census released its annual state population estimates Thursday morning. The measure dips into state births, deaths, immigrants from outside the country and those moving into one state from another. The data is from July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2022.

Arizona’s population, now estimated at 7,359,197, saw a 1.3% increase. That makes the state the 5th-fastest growing state in the 12 months ending last summer.

The Copper State’s growth has rebounded from 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic stunted immigration, new births and accelerated the nation’s death rate. In that year, Arizona saw only 28,436 more residents.

Though the data won’t be broken down by county and city until the summer, last year’s more-detailed Census release showed Maricopa County gained more people than any other. The population center of Arizona added 58,246 people in the 12 months ending in July 2021.

Arizona posted a lower-than-expected decennial count in 2020. The poor showing cost the state a new member of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in decades of congressional reshuffling after a Census count is released. Experts blamed the issue on a long-standing difficulty counting immigrants, seasonal residents referred to as “snowbirds,” and the state’s large Native American population.

Last year the state saw a net domestic migration gain of 84,934 people to its population. The additional people, minus those who moved away or died, put the state’s estimated population at 7,264,877 as of July 1 of this year.

Nationally, Sunbelt states such as Arizona, Texas and Florida continue to be the nation’s destination for population growth.

“There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the first year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”

The Northeast and Midwest continue to shed population in the annual Census measurements.

“While Florida has often been among the largest-gaining states,” Wilder noted, “this was the first time since 1957 that Florida has been the state with the largest percent increase in population.”