Weather blog from MarylandWeather.com

Hurricane Ida steams into Gulf; watches up for La.

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 11:28:55 -0500

Just when you thought we'd slipped by without a late-season hurricane this fall, Hurricane Ida puffs up and appears to be headed for the northern Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches from Grand Isle, La. to the Alabama, Mississippi state line. There are flood warnings up for New Orleans, which is expected to get heavy rain. The Hurricane Watches mean hurricane conditions could develop within 36 hours, although forecasters do expect the storm will begin to lose its tropical characteristics Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast and experiences wind shear and cooler waters. Some chance remains, however, that it could still be a tropical storm at that point.

The storm at last check was about 75 miles northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about the same distance southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The storm is moving through the Yucatan Channel, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Top sustained winds are estimated at near 90 mph, making Ida a Cat. 1 storm.

UPDATE: Ida has strengthened today to a Cat. 2 storm, with top sustained winds of almost 100 mph. The watches have been extended farther east along the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center's advisory includes the following:

"RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS."

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Mr. Foot sees "smackdown" storm coming

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 07:23:28 -0500

I missed this when it appeared last week. Some kind of problem with my "Favorites" list. Anyway, Mr. Foot, a Baltimore County science teacher and Maryland weather watcher much-consulted by county teachers and students eager for a snow break in winter time, is forecasting a "smackdown" storm here by mid-month.

Says he:

"I've maintained a position that the atmosphere is primed and ready to deliver, all we wait for now is "Only Time." I realize we haven't dug out the Thanksgiving decorations yet, but I can't resist the urge to tell you that before long, we will be reveling in the sight of "White in the Winter Night."

Here's the sequence for his early-season prognostications:

* 11/01-09: A mild to cool period then brief warmup

* 11/10-15: Possible outbreak of Arctic air on or before 11/15

* In same week, a "smackdown" storm with snow at the onset

* 11/15-25: "yo-yo" period of below then above-normal temps

* 11/25-12/5: Seasonal temps leading to kickoff event by 12/5.

To read the rest of his forecast, visit his blog, here.

(SUN PHOTO/David Hobby/McHenry, Md., October 2006)

Heads up! Space Station flyby Sunday evening

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:00:46 -0500

The International Space Station is back in our evening skies, and on Sunday evening the big contraption will be flying up the East Coast and almost directly over Baltimore. (And even more directly over Ocean City.)

The weather forecast is quite promising for this pass, and the station will appear especially bright, even in badly light-polluted urban settings. It's also a convenient early-evening pass, so sky watchers will have no excuse not to step outside with the kids and get a look at your (and their) tax dollars at play.

The only hitch is that on this pass the ISS will fly into the Earth's shadow and disappear well before reaching the northeast horizon, cutting short our view, which of course depends entirely on sunlight reflecting off the hardware.

Watch for the station as it rises above the southwest horizon at 6:14 p.m. It will appear like a bright star, hustling across the sky. If you see blinking strobes, multiple or colored lights, that's a airplane. Keep looking.

The ISS will pass well above the planet Jupiter, which is now the brightest object in the southern sky. It will reach a maximum elevation of 70 degrees above the southeastern horizon at 6:17 p.m., and soon after that fade quickly away as it enters the Earth's shadow - another brief nighttime for crew aboard the station.

There are currently six crew members aboard the ISS. They include two Americans (one male, one female); two Russians; one Belgian (the first European expedition commander) and one Canadian, all male.

They are currently preparing for the scheduled arrival of the Space Shuttle Atlantis on Nov. 16. The flight, to deliver spare parts to the station, is one of the last six shuttle flights on the NASA manifest before the fleet is retired in 2010. After that, under current plans, the U.S. will have to rely on Russian vehicles to support the station and its crew.

Note to Bucket Listers: If you have never seen a shuttle launch in person, start planning now to get down to Florida to watch one of these spectacular events before it's too late. TV images of a shuttle launch do not do the experience justice. You can't see that blinding flame, hear the crackling engines, or feel the sound in your chest.

And, with the cameras focused on the shuttle, you lose all sense of the space ship's acceleration and speed as it leaps into the air and disappears from view. You simply can't believe that people willingly ride that monster. Be there.

Ida headed for Gulf this weekend

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:20:36 -0500

Weakened to tropical depression status and somewhat disrupted by its passage over parts of eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, Ida is continuing to drop life-threatening rain over the Central American countries. But the storm is expected to move back over water late today, into the northwest Caribbean, and on toward the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are getting conflicting predictions from their computer models and other guides. But the guesswork seems to be settling on a storm track into the central Gulf by early next week, with a likely curve toward Florida.

Although there is at least one model forecasting the storm will regain hurricane force, the NHC seems to be holding Ida's redevelopment to tropical storm force for the moment, citing continuing wind shear in the region and cooler waters in the Gulf.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track, and here is the view from orbit.

Freeze warning tonight; tender plants doomed

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:18:02 -0500

Temperatures along the I-95 corridor are set to drop into the upper 20s and low 30s Friday night into Saturday morning. The National Weather Service has posted freeze warnings from 1 a.m. to 8 a.m. Saturday for Baltimore, Washington and all counties along the Chesapeake from Harford in the north to St. Mary's in the south.

The hard freeze will finally bring the 2009 growing season to a halt in the area, and kill off any tender plants that are still outdoors tonight.

The forecast low for BWI-Marshall Airport - and for much of the surrounding region tonight, is 29 degrees, which would be the lowest reading there since April 13, when the low was also 29. Downtown, the low is likely to be slightly higher, around 33 degrees.

The cold night is brought to us courtesy of high pressure that's been building in from the Ohio Valley. That's bringing clear skies and, as it moves closer tonight, calming winds. And that is the recipe for radiational cooling tonight, which will bleed away much of the solar heating we're able to store up today, and drop temperatures.

The weekend and the early part of next week look like they'll remain mostly sunny during the day, and clear at night. Daytime highs should poke back into the 60s by Sunday.

Then there's this from the NWS:

"HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH CENTER SHOULD KEEP ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY REMNANTS OF [tropical storm] IDA WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA [forecast area] NEXT WEEK."

(SUN PHOTO/Algerina Perna/Calvert Street ginkgo tree 11/9/2008)

See the universe ... from Dundalk

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 12:48:12 -0500

The forecast is promising for Friday evening, a good opportunity to see the stars from the Comunity College of Baltimore County's Dundalk campus.

The Department of Astronomy in the School of Mathematics and Science will have its big Celestron 14-inch CGE 1400 XLT (sounds impressive, doesn't it?) telescope set up to provide the public with a close-up view of the heavens. One prominent target, I expect, will be the planet Jupiter, which is shining brightly high in the southern sky this month. Here it is in this NASA photo, with four of its moons.

This will be the first in a series of Friday evening observing sessions for the public in Dundalk this fall. Here's when and where and how:

Nov. 6, 7-9 p.m.

Nov. 20, 7-9 p.m.

Dec. 11, 7-9 p.m.

If the skies look iffy, give them a call, 45 minutes before the start of the session, at 410 282-3092 to see if it's still on.

Address: 7200 Sollers Point Road, Dundalk. Turn into CCBC Dundalk from Sollers Point Road and take the first right into the parking lot. Walk to the observatory.

Ida is now a hurricane

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:34:49 -0500

Tropical Storm Ida became the season's third hurricane overnight, with top sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm moved onshore on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, some 60 miles north of the town of Bluefields, and was expected to weaken over land. But forecasters are still predicting Ida will move back over water into the northwest Caribbean and restrengthen.

UPDATE: 1 p.m. EST. Ida was downgraded today to a tropical storm.

The storm is producing heavy rains, with 5 to 7 inches likely in most locations, and as much as 20 to 25 inches possible in some spots. Those conditions would produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

While there remained some possibility the storm will dissipate while over land, the forecast storm track still has Ida moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, at tropical storm strength, posing some risk for the Gulf Coast of the U.S.

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

New tropical depression forms as season fades

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:48:04 -0500

The National Hurricane Center is tracking the 11th tropical depression to form this season in the Atlantic basin. The 2009 hurricane season officially ends at the end of this month.

The new storm, designated Tropical Depression 11, got its act together Tuesday in the southwestern Caribbean, and now threatens the Nicaraguan coast and offshore islands with torrential rains and 35-mph winds. It may well become the season's ninth tropical storm - Ida - later today.

UPDATE: 4 p.m. TD 11 became Tropical Storm Ida this afternoon. Top sustained winds are at 60-mph, with higher gusts. Some further intensification is likely before landfall in Nicaragua. Rainfall as high as 20 or 25 inches are possible in some locations, raising the danger of flooding and mudslides.

Forecasters think the storm will weaken as it goes ashore, and crosses over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. But it is expected to head north, move back over the northwest Caribbean and regain tropical storm strength as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week. One computer model even has it reaching hurricane strength.

TD 11 was located this morning about 125 miles east southeast of Bluefields, a former buccaneer hideout on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. It was moving toward the northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 11. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

"Killing frost" possible tonight west of I-95

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:42:06 -0500

Clear skies and calming winds could combine to produce a hard freeze tonight in portions of the state west of the urban corridor. The National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va. hasn't posted any frost or freeze warnings yet (except in Cecil County and on the upper Eastern Shore), but there is a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" noting that:

"TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A KILLING FROST."

UPDATE: The NWS this afternoon issued a frost advisory for all counties north and west of Baltimore, including northern Baltimore, Carroll, Howard, Frederick, Montgomery and Washington counties:

"CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE...THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FROST
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

"PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

"A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED."

The forecast low for BWI tonight is 37 degrees, but that drops off quickly to 33 degrees in Westminster, 32 in Shrewsbury, Pa., and in Poolesville, Md.

Thursday night may be even colder, with a low of 35 at BWI, and below freezing well west of the city. There are snow showers in the forecast for Garrett County late Wednesday and Thursday.

NOTE TO READERS: The barrel's empty. Be famous for a day. Send in your weather or backyard astronomy questions and see them answered on the Page 2 print weather page. Or is it Page 3 now? Thanks! - FDR

Leonid meteors are up next

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:18:27 -0500

Astronomers are predicting an exceptional year for the annual Leonid meteor shower, which will peak two weeks from today. The Leonids are among the best meteor displays on the astronomical calendar. November nights (with luck) can be clear and crisp, and this shower has occasionally ramped up to very high - even storm - rates.

This year's viewing, assuming the weather cooperates, will be enhanced by the total absence of moonlight; the moon will be "new" that night.

But the best hope for sky watchers is that the people who have learned to forecast these things seem to be in broad agreement that the Earth this year will be passing through the core of some heavy streams of dust left behind by the comet Tempel-Tuttle in past centuries.

If they're right, observers in central and eastern Asia will have the best view, with meteor rates forecast to exceed several hundred per hour as we slip through the dust left by the comet during its passes through the inner solar system in the years 1466 and 1533.

That will occur 12 to 14 hours after the best viewing time for those of us stuck here in eastern North America, according to an article on Space.com.

Here, in the hours between 3:30 and 5:30 a.m. Nov. 17, the Earth will pass through a separate stream of comet dust, spread by Tempel-Tuttle during its pass through the region in the year 1567. Forecasters anticipate "modest" meteor rates of 25 to 30 per hour. Not spectacular, but a very nice display if they're right.

And if we're clouded out, we'll get another chance early on the 18th. The Leonids are typically active a few days before and after the peak on the 17th and 18th.

The best thing about these meteors, forecasters say, is that many will leave persistent trails as they streak into the atmosphere. A couple dozen of those during a morning's watch would be something to remember.

And in the meantime, if you just can't resist getting out of bed to stand around in the cold at midnight or later, the annual Taurid shower is about to begin. It peaks between the 5th and 12th of November and, while not nearly as numerous as the Leonids, the Taurids can and do produce some spectacular fireballs.

As with all meteor showers, you'll need clear skies and a dark location far from urban lighting. And if you're successful, be sure to come back here, drop us a comment, and let everyone know where you were, and what you saw. Clear skies!

(AP Photo/Leonid meteors, Nov. 17, 1998)

Amaze your friends with Baltimore winter trivia

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:43:53 -0500

I know it's too early in the season to be amusing readers with winter weather data. But the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling has posted a compendium of winter weather facts for Baltimore, Washington and Dulles Airport, and it's a fun read if you're into Baltimore's annual love/hate relationship with snow, cold and ice.

For example:

1. What was the iciest winter in recent Baltimore weather history?

2. How many of the deepest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred since your Weather Blogger moved here from Massachusetts in 1980? Is that my fault?

3. What was the snowiest month in Baltimore history?

4. How long has it been since Baltimore (BWI) experienced sub-zero temperatures? How many times have we dipped below zero since 1960?

5. How many times per winter, on average, does Baltimore get a snowfall of 4 inches or more?

For answers to these questions and more, click here. There's more here. And you can contemplate the role of El Nino in Baltimore winters, here.

(SUN PHOTO/Mark Bugnaski/Ice storm, Baltimore, January 1994)

October ends wet; November brings snow risk

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:13:57 -0500

The data are in, and no matter how wet and cool you remember October 2009, while it did end very wet, the temperatures averaged out to an almost precisely normal 55.3 degrees for Baltimore.

Rainfall for the month totaled 6.24 inches. That's a surplus of more than 3 inches, and the wettest October since 2005, when Tropical Storm Tammy's remnants drove the total to 9.23 inches.

And if you still feel like it was a cold October in Baltimore, it's probably the first half of the month that's stuck in your weather memory. Fourteen of the first 20 days of the month averaged cooler than the norm.

The month's low was 34 degrees, on the 20th. The high was 83, on the 9th.

The coldest spell was from Oct. 14 through the 20th, a seemingly endless string of chilly, rainy days with temperatures averaging close to 10 degrees below the seasonal norms. Daytime highs stalled in the 40s to 50 degrees for four days straight. More than 3 inches of rain fell at BWI-Marshall in those same four days.

But we also enjoyed 12 October days of 70-plus temperatures, including one day in the 80s. Seventeen days were rated clear or partly cloudy.

And now November...

Average high temperatures for Baltimore in November slide from 61 degrees on the 1st to 51 degrees on the 30th. The average lows dip from 38 degrees to 31 degrees. The records run from 86 degrees (on the 1st in 1950), to 12 degrees (on the 30th in 1929).

Snow becomes a serious possibility in November for the first time. Many Baltimoreans will remember the Veteran's Day storm on Nov. 11, 1987, which left an official 6 inches at BWI, but caused much more disruption than the number would suggest.

The deepest November snowfall on record for the city is 8.4 inches, which fell on Nov. 30, 1967. Measurable snow has fallen here on all but eight dates in November.

The oldest weather record still standing for Baltimore in November seems to be the 1.79 inches of rain that fell on Nov. 23, 1879, still the record for that date. Also notable is the cold stretch from Nov. 19-24, 1880, when the maximum daily temperatures stalled near 30 degrees. Four of those high readings are still record low maximums for the dates.

Sun struggles through cloud deck

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:49:11 -0500

Sunshine and clear skies continue to grace Maryland counties to the west of the I-95 corridor. But somehow the clouds have lingered stubbornly over the urban corridor, despite all that hope we lavished on the situation Sunday.

Forecasters out at Sterling say the problem has been the slow-moving low off the Carolinas, which has kept the clouds clinging to the coastline. The problem now becomes whether that coastal storm will drift azway, and clear our skies, before the next weather disturbance moves in with a weak cold fron on Tuesday.

"Did an update to try to better depict the cloudy versus clear area. At the rate the cloud cover seems to be waning, another may be needed shortly to paint a more optimistic picture," the weather folks said in their Monday morning discussion.

The good news is that none of the forecasts include more rain for our area, although some places in the mountains could see some showers Tuesday morning, and maybe some snow showers by Thursday morning as temperatures there sink into the 20s. Our week looks generally sunny after today, with highs at BWI in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

The weather news headline for us - aside from those promises of sunshine - may be the Tuesday-into-Wednesday-morning forecast for lows near the freezing mark. That would be the coldest reading of the season so far, and could put an end to the growing season for the northern and western Baltimore suburbs. The city low forecast for Wednesday morning is around 40 degrees.

Finally, the full Hunter's Moon (or, if you prefer, the Frosty Moon or the Beaver Moon) rises over Baltimore tonight beginning at 4:41 p.m. EST. With any luck, the clouds will be gone.

Here comes the sun

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:56:28 -0500

Don't despair, Baltimore. The weather gods have been taking their time, but the cold front is moving off, and the cloud deck over our heads is about to pass off to the south and east of the city.

So the sun should be coming out shortly. Here (left) is the satellite view of the region, taken around noon Sunday.

You can see the clear skies out to our west. And here's the Northeast radar loop.

Forecasters say the week ahead looks cool, but sunny.

Hagerstown is already under fair skies.

Hang in there.

No surprise here: Reservoirs are full

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:05:19 -0500

This just in: Baltimore's reservoir system is full to the brim!

Actually, all three reservoirs - Prettyboy, Liberty and Loch Raven - runneth over in the wake of surplus rainfall in the region for five of the last seven months. Here's the straight dope, right from the Department of Public Works:

Liberty: Crest elevation: 420 feet above mean sea level. Current elevation: 420.31 feet. Capacity - 36.8 billion gallons. Available: 36.8 billion gallons

Prettyboy: Crest elevation: 520 feet. Current elevation: 520.34 feet. Capacity - 17.85 billion gallons. Available: 17.85 billion gallons.

Loch Raven: Crest elevation: 240 feet. Current elevation: 240.94 feet. Capacity: 21.2 billion gallons. Available: 21.2 billion gallons.

Total system: Capacity: 75.85 billion gallons. Available: 75.85 billion gallons.

The airport has recorded 6.21 inches of rain so far in October, almost double the long-term average of 3.16 inches. It's tied for the 13th-wettest October since record-keeping began in 1871. And it's the fifth-wettest October for Baltimore since the station of record moved to Friendship Airport (now BWI-Marshall) in 1950.

And there's a good chance, with more rain Saturday, that October 2009 could leap even higher on the chart. Another inch would make it the fifth-wettest October here since 1871. Here are the rankings for Octobers since 1950:

2005: 9.23 inches

1976: 8.09 inches

1971: 6.88 inches

1995: 6.24 inches

2009: 6.21 inches

(SUN PHOTO/Linda Coan/Loch Raven Reservoir, full, August 1999).