Eastern US Surface Plots & Radar 4:12 PM EDT

A large area of high pressure centered near lake Huron this afternoon will provide us with nice weather for the next couple of days.  There are a few high clouds drifting up from a low pressure/cold front combo near and east of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coast.  So, tonight will be clear to partly cloudy with lows in the low-mid 40′s, (some upper 30′s in the cold pockets of Litchfield County).  There is a frost advisory up for northwestern MA overnight into early Friday, where it will be colder.  Friday will be sunny and comfortable, with low humidity and highs in the low-mid 70′s.  Friday night looks clear with lows in the 40′s.  Sunshine continues Saturday and the temperature begins to warm up a bit, with highs reaching 77-84 inland, but holding between 70-75 along the shore.  Low pressure moving up from the south and an onshore flow will produce partly cloudy conditions Sunday, and I wouldn’t rule out a passing shower in the afternoon.  Highs will reach the low to possibly mid 80′s inland, but remain between 70-75 again along the shore.  Looks like showers or rain developing Monday.

Tent Downed By Wind At ConnJam

You may recall the beauty of a day we had last Saturday (May 12th).  Folks that attended the Boy Scouts of America ConnJam in Orange, CT recall something else.  At about 12:15 P.M., what has been described as a funnel shaped swirl of wind moved through the event grounds, producing damage and injuries.  News 12 has been quoted as saying 10 people were injured and 6 were sent to the hospital.  Despite the speculation in this article, this was not a tornado nor a microburst.  Tornadoes do not occur in clear weather.  Microbursts are fast, downward moving, areas of air associated with thunderstorms and evaporating precipitation.  So what was it then?  An eyewitness who tipped me off about this event described it to me this way:

“In what I would estimate was under 30 seconds, tents were thrown in the air, a large bouncy house was toppled and a large event tent was lifted and partially collapsed. As quickly as it arrived, it vanished. It was shapeless to me until it sucked up papers from under the tent, which were sucked up in a clear spiral pattern.

Local news reported 10 injured. I watched it all and helped with moving injured and lowering the big tent frame.”

This sounds and looks to me like the rare case of a dust devil that produced

Southwest CT Wind Vectors & Surface Plots May 12 At Noon

damage and injuries.   I contacted the National Weather Service about this yesterday.  The meteorologist that I messaged with said he felt that the ambient wind was too strong for dust devil formation, and his best guess was that this was just a strong wind gust, possibly enhanced by interaction with local terrain or a sea breeze.  I’m not so sure, though.  I’m still thinking this sounds like a dust devil.

Radar 3:56 PM EDT

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect through 9 PM for Hartford & Litchfield Counties in CT, the 4 western counties in MA, and adjacent areas of eastern NY.  This indicates the potential for a severe t-storm (wind gusts 58+ mph or hail >1″ diameter).  At this time there is nothing on radar in the region, except for a light shower near Great Barrington, MA and a heavier shower near Coxsackie, NY.  The line of showers and t-storms associated with the cold front will move across CT from northwest to southeast tonight between about 8 PM and midnight, weakening as it does.  Between now and 8 PM the chance is there for a shower or thundershower, especially in western parts of the region.  Not everyone will have a t-storm tonight and fewer people (if any) will see severe weather.  The best chance for a beefy storm in southern New England will be in Litchfield County, maybe northern Hartford County, and western MA early tonight.  Temps will be in the 70′s this evening.

Overnight, it will be partly cloudy with lows close to 50.  A nice string of weather begins tomorrow.  Thursday, Friday & Saturday all look sunny with pleasant temperatures.  Highs will be in the low 70′s Thursday (lows in the 40′s Thursday night), low-mid 70′s Friday, and 75-83 Saturday.

Radar 2:49 PM EDT

The area of widespread rain/showers will tapering off to scattered showers  from west to east during the second half of this afternoon.  The chance for a shower will continue tonight and there will be some areas of patchy fog, with lows in the upper 50′s to about 60 degrees.  Sky conditions will become partly sunny Wednesday, however with a cold front and short-wave aloft approaching,

NAM Forecast 8 PM EDT Wednesday

the chance for a shower or t-storm will be with us.  High temps tomorrow reach 75-80.  Behind the front, temps will cool to the upper 40′s-low 50′s late Wednesday night (actually toward dawn Thursday).  Thursday, Friday and the weekend are still looking pretty good.  We should see a fair amount of sunshine and temps ranging from 70-75 Thursday, up to 75-80 by Sunday.

NAM Forecast 8 PM EDT

evening, however most places will remain dry, with partly sunny conditions and highs between 77-82.  Tonight looks partly to mostly cloudy.  A shower cannot be ruled out, but I think much of the night will be rain-free.  We have the chance for a shower or two Monday, but showers and periods of rain have a better chance of becoming more widespread by Tuesday or Tuesday night.  Highs Monday will be 70-75, while temperatures Tuesday hold between 65-70.

US Surface Plot & Radar 4:09 PM EDT

Weather conditions will remain pleasant this evening with partly cloudy to mostly clear sky conditions, wind starting to diminish, and temps dropping through the 60′s.  Overnight, we’ll see mostly clear skies and lows mostly between 37-45.  High pressure passing out to our south, off the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday, will put us into a westerly wind flow that will tap into some milder air.  Highs Saturday afternoon will rise to between 76-81 (after a cool start) under a mostly sunny sky.  Saturday night looks partly cloudy with lows in the

GFS Forecast 2 PM EDT Sunday

low-mid 50′s.  Conditions will remain mild to warm for Mother’s Day.  Sky conditions Sunday will be partly cloudy.  High temperatures will rise to 77-82.  There will be a bit of a trough starting to approach the area from the west.  This could possibly trigger a shower or thundershower in a few towns Sunday afternoon or evening, but I wouldn’t stress too much about it at this point.  The chance for showers will increase by Monday.

Northeast Surface Plot & Radar 3:15 PM EDT

A cold front will drift in from the west tonight.  Showers and areas of rain will become more widespread tonight as the front presses in.  A weak wave of low pressure forming on the front to our south will help to enhance the showers and rain areas for a while.  Lows temperatures will be in the low-mid 50′s behind the front.  As the whole complex move further east Thursday, the rain and showers will tend to taper off during the morning, to be followed by partly sunny conditions.  However, with a surface trough rotating in and an

NAM Forecast 5 PM EDT Thursday

area of lower pressure approaching in the upper-atmosphere, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a scattered shower or two in the afternoon.  It will breezy Thursday with highs in the 60′s (maybe 65-70 with enough sun).

Friday will be partly sunny & breezy, too.  And with the upper low not far away, a pop-up, instability shower is still possible, though most of the day should be dry with highs 65-70.  Saturday is shaping up to be fair and milder, with highs in the 70′s.  Partly cloudy Sunday.  Maybe a shower.  Highs in the 70′s again.

NAM Forecast 5 AM EDT Wednesday

Most of the showers this afternoon have been found north & west of Hartford.  This trend will continue for a little while longer, but I expect showers to again reach all areas by later today or tonight.  Temperatures this afternoon will be mostly in the 60-65 degree range, with a south to southeast wind at 15-25 mph, gusting to around 35 mph at times.  A warm front will nudge up into the area late tonight, continuing the shower activity, and also producing the chance for a heavier downpour or some thunder in parts of the area overnight.  Lows will hold in the mid 50′s.  There will still be a couple showers and some areas of drizzle lingering into parts of Wednesday, however don’t be surprised if you see a little sun trying to come out at some point as the milder air drifts in.  Highs Wednesday will reach 68-75 degrees.  As low pressure passes by to our north, the trailing cold front will move across our region Wednesday night.  This will also produce some showers.  Some of these may linger into part of Thursday morning, however it will become partly sunny after that.  Thursday also looks breezy, with highs between 65-70.