Sam LaHood and recent bride, Katie.

From “The Daily Beast.” Sam LaHood, son of Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood and his wife are among those foreign nationals being refused permission to leave the country as of January 31, 2012.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Q1:  What is the United States economy going to grow at this year?

A1:  “There are no oracles in economics and it’s still a pretty uncertain world, but I think the conventional view of the US now is that we’re growing between 2 and 3%, and I think that’s a realistic outcome for the U.S. economy, as long as we see a little more progress in Europe, and as long as we don’t see a lot of risk come up from Iran and the oil front.”

Q2: That scenario of 2 to 3% growth seems a little different from what Ben Bernanke thinks growth is going to look like. If you read the statement Ben Bernanke put out — to put out a statement almost guaranteeing that rates are going to remain where they are until almost the end of 2014 suggests that they don’t see any growth, any robust growth, for a long time. Are they wrong at the Fed?

A2: ” I’m not a forecaster, so my views aren’t worth much, but I think if you look at both the Feds forecast and  the consensus of private forecasters in the business economy among economists, if you look in that cluster, it’s still pretty dependent on how the world unfolds. Again, I think it’s worth recognizing that we still face tremendous challenges in the country. We’re still repairing the damage left by a devastating financial crisis.  Unemployment is still very high. Housing is still very, very weak, construction is still very weak. People still have too much debt. We’re bringing that down. That’s still gonna’ take a while to repair. That still has had a great impact on the fortunes of ordinary Americans.”

Q3:  There is  a very well-established narrative now among the business community in the United States that there would be a much more robust recovery, the U.S. economy would be recovering faster,  if there were greater certainty, if people were willing to invest and the reason they are not is that there is sort of a tsunami of regulations, uncertainty about the tax policies, uncertainty about the deficit and above all that the economy is being thrown this huge array of legislation,  that this is what is holding the economy is back.

A3:  “I don’t think there is much basis for that line of thought. It’s true that we are putting in place tough new guidelines in the financial sector, we are trying to change the way the health care system works, and we are trying to change the ways Americans use energy and those are necessary, desirable, and very important for the long-term recovery of the United States. But I think if you look at the evidence about how the economy is doing and about how the business economy is doing, in particular, the reality does not justify that sense, so just look at the things you can use to measure basic health, business health. Profitability across the American economy is very, very high—higher than the pre-crisis peak—if you look at investment as a measure of confidence…private investment in equipment and software…it has grown more than 30% since the trough in the first part of 2009. That puts it up 22%. There is broad-based investment in energy, in agriculture, in manufacturing. Not just high tech manufacturing, but in heavy manufacturing. I was at a Seaman’s plant, a new plant, in North Carolina this week, which is building Seaman gas turbines and generators for export, and they’re doing that because they see in the basic fundamentals of the productivity of the United States, even with all our challenges, this pretty compelling competitive advantage relative to where else they are produced. So, I think if you look at the basic health of the American business sector it’s much stronger than anyone would have thought at the peak of our crisis, and stronger than many of us hoped.”

Q 4: While business productivity is up, manufacturing is up, unemployment still remains a huge challenge. Many businesses have become more productive because they’ve taken costs out of the system, they’ve managed things better. How do you get the American job machine going again?

A4:  “The biggest drive of how fast the unemployment rate comes down is how fast we grow. And the biggest determiner of how fast we’re going to grow now is really going to depend on these two fundamental factors. One is what’s going to happen in the world, meaning in Europe and in the Gulf because of oil and, frankly, just to be direct about it, if the Republicans in Congress decide they want to legislate things that are good for growth in the short term. So what we think the right economic growth for the country is is to legislate a set of investment incentives that encourage things that are going to be good for long-term growth: rebuilding America’s infrastructure, education, more spending on innovation, basic science, better skills for Americans, tied to long-term fiscal reforms that restore sustainability. If we were able to legislate for those things in the short term that would make a big difference for confidence, that would make a difference for this rate of growth of the American economy in the short run. But, to be realistic, it’s going to take a long time still for us to repair the damage, particularly on unemployment, that caused the crisis. But the private sector has created 3.2 million (new) jobs and job growth has resumed. That’s actually pretty strong recovery in the job sector compared to the last 2 recoveries; it’s pretty strong, given the aftershocks of the crisis. We all want it to be stronger, though.”

Q5:  Most people who look at the American tax code, which is, with regulation, 10,000 pages long, one of the most complicated in the world, believe that the key to reforming the tax code is broaden the base, eliminate the deductions and loopholes, lower the rates. Isn’t the president’s proposal in the State of the Union message taking us in exactly the opposite direction?

A5:  “Not at all. The president’s proposals, which are focused on a set of investment favorable reforms in the investment sector, focusing on manufacturing and investment, and on a modest but necessary increase in the effective tax rate paid by the richest Americans, those 2 things I think are going to come, realistically, in the context of broad reform. What we’re going to try to do is to lay the foundation for tax reform, we can produce a more simple system (lower rates, broader base, more simple, less distortions….

(Fahreed, interrupting, “Why not just propose tax reform?”)

A6:  “Because we have to start with principles for a framework and we have to be specific about those things which should dominate the debate. Again, I wish it were different for us, but the basic crude fiscal realities of the United States now, (and we have to recognize that we have to govern within those limits), means that when we do tax reform, we’re going to have to be helping contribute to deficit reduction. We don’t have the ability to offer the American people or the American business people a net tax cut. That is beyond the capacity of anybody realistic about our constraints, but again, just to put it in perspective, our fiscal problems are daunting for us, in the long run, but they are much more manageable problems than faced by almost any economy around the world. And it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that, given the high level of unemployment, given the very bad outcome for median income in the United States over the last 30 years, 20 years, 10 years, given the just appallingly high rates of poverty in the United States, given the competitive challenges we face that are going to require pretty significant investments in infrastructure, and in education, you have to take a much broader approach and we’re not going to solve our problems in this country by thinking they are about how we restore fiscal sustainability. That’s part of it, but it’s not the dominant challenge we face as a country.”

Q7:  Does that suggest that austerity is not a path to growth?

A7:  “I think the debate over austerity is mostly exaggerated. The people who talk about economic problems as being things you can fix by austerity get the main things wrong. It’s true, however, that in most of Europe, there are going to be significant budget reductions. They will not work if there is not a stronger commitment standing behind the European endeavor and, you’re right, the country will face the fact that austerity will feed the decline.”

Q8;  Did you talk about the US/China trade in a way that you think will see results?

A8:  “We’ll have to see. We measure people by their actions. China does provide a unique problem. They are still overwhelmingly dominated by the state and they still keep their exchange rate below fundamental and have for some time. Although China is, in many ways, is beginning to have a manufacturing presence that is major, they are supporting that presence in ways that are very damaging, not just to the economic factor,  to the trade but to the political support around the world in order to support a more fair system around the world. I do think that China believes that it’s in its interests to try to make this broader system work. Of course it depends a lot on its access to our market and to other markets around the world and we hope that these markets are enough of an incentive to them to make more progress in these reforms.”

Q9:  You announced recently that you would be leaving at the end of Obama’s first term. Was that your idea or his?

A9:  “An excellent way to pose that question. Generally, anybody who takes these jobs serves at the discretion of the president. And at a time when we face so many challenges, so much pressure, and you have these things, you have to do them. And when he asked me to stay, when I thought it was the right time to leave, I agreed I would stay, and I agreed I would stay until the balance of his term, and he accepted that aspiration of mine.  And that’s where it’s gonna’ come out, I think.”

Q10:  What are you going to do next?

A10:  “That feels like a long way away. Again, we’re in Europe and I know the eyes are all on Europe, but here living with terribly challenging and hugely consequential economic choices, we have a lot of unfinished business, even on the financial reform side and a lot of foundation laying on the things that are good for growth and investment in the United States, not just for the long-term fiscal economy, so I feel like we have a long year of hard work. It’s a political moment in the United States and people are skeptical if we can do anything but our judgment is that we still have a chance in some of these areas to make some progress, and I’m going to focus on that as long as I can.”

Sam LaHood and new bride Katie.

Current Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood’s, youngest son, Sam, is among 10 American and European citizens denied permission to leave Egypt.  I was instantly taken back to the day when Sam, our next-door neighbor (then aged about five), wandered down our court one day, while the family down the street was at the cemetery burying a family member. When the family returned and entered their unlocked house, they found little “Sammy,” who had climbed up on the counter-top to help himself to a snack. “Sammy” was a darling little guy and has grown into a handsome young man who was married to new wife Katie on September 5, 2011, in Bermuda.

Transportation Secretary LaHood told the (Moline, IL) Dispatch (Jan. 27, 2012, McClatchy-Tribune Information Services) that his son’s detention is “absolutely an escalation. It’s de facto detention.” Last month, Egyptian officials raided Sam LaHood’s Cairo offices where he was director of the Washington-based International Republican Institute’s Egyptian program.  This week, Egyptian newspapers announced that as many as forty foreigners were to appear in court next month on charges of “illicit foreign funding.”  The move detaining so many foreign nationals is viewed as a crackdown on foreign pro-democracy groups by the generals in power.

 When the LaHood family lived near us in East Moline, Illinois, Sam’s father, Ray LaHood, was director of the Rock Island County Youth Service Bureau and served for three years as chief planner at the Bi-State Metropolitan Planning Commission, (now called the Bi-State Regional Commission.) The elder LaHood, a Republican, also worked for former U.S. Representatives Tom Railsback and Bob Michel before serving in the House for 14 years from Peoria. LaHood has announced plans to retire at the end of Obama’s first term.

Ray LaHood’s oldest son, Darin, was  appointed to the Illinois State Senate on February 27, 2010, and took office on March 1, 2010, the day after incumbent Dale Risinger retired from representing the seven-county thirty-seventh legislative district in Illinois.

Sunset, Mazatlan, Emerald Bay.

We’ve been here now since Saturday, and I have learned that it is not a good idea to mix wine, Bloody Marys, octopus, squid, pina coladas and Mexican coffee, which is set on fire tableside and contains tequila, in the same day. I learned this the hard way. (And I don’t even LIKE octopus!)

We finally got on a bus and took it to the OLD Pueblo Bonito location in the town. Where we are, the grounds are beautiful and there are at least 4 places one can dine, so going in to town doesn’t seem essential. Add to that the reports from the locals, who say the cruise ships no longer stop in the port and the Gold Zone, as it is known is “dead.” We were told that on Friday it might have more life, as there might be musicians, so we will go into the marketplace tomorrow, but tonight we will stay here and enjoy Italian night at the restaurant that is the fanciest one.

Of course, Kelly’s Bar is quite interesting, with all of its mounted heads on the wall and its feeling of Early Hemingway.

Sunset in Mazatlan.

There are quite a few ex-government employees here and quite a few retired college professors and quite a few retirees, in general. Yesterday, we met a gentleman (last name: Wee) who taught music at St. Olaf College, but was here with his family to celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary. He said he was 74. There is also a woman named Mary who taught at Auburn and also a young couple, who left on Wednesday.

We’re watching the New Hampshire primary fall-out on CNN and Fox here and I, in particular, am watching the South Carolina primary with interest.

One of 5 pools.

Newest of the 5 pools, near "The Bistro" eatery.Mounted tiger head on the wall of "Kelly's" Bar.

A lion-skin within Kelly's Bar, beneath the piano.

The Kelly family owns the land on which Emerald Bay sits, courtesy of Irish ancestor John Kelly. All family members have contributed their stuffed heads, some dating back to the fifties, some as recent as 2008.

Kelly's Bar within Emerald Bay in Mazatlan, Mexico.

Emerald Bay, Mazatlan, Mexico. January 10, 2012.

We’ve been here since January 7th, after a 12-hour flight that saw us turning in at 7:30 p.m.

Not doing much, other than reading Stephen King’s new book (and wondering if he ever read mine that dealt with time travel, “Out of Time.”)

I’ve taken a few pictures of the grounds. There are many more to come. It’s chilly, by my standards, but not THAT chilly when it’s only 45 degrees in Chicago.

Hope all is well at home.

Flamingoes and a black swan @ Emerald Bay.

Genre: Mystery/Thriller/Horror

Title: “The Color of Evil”

Author:  Connie (Corcoran) Wilson

     Not everyone wants to be a hero.  But not everyone gets a choice.

     Tad McGreevy had known he was different ever since he was small.  He could see colored auras around people, indicating their true nature.  But it wasn’t until third gtrade that he realized just how dangerous his power could be.  Third grade was when the killer was on the loose.  Third grade was when Tad almost lost himself to his power.  From then on, he decided he would never tell anyone about what he could see ever again.

     Eight years later, Tad has developed into a normal healthy teenager.  His main focus now is to protect those he loves.  But the horror isn’t over, and the evil hasn’t stopped.  When the ones he cares about get involvd what can he do but dive into the colors of evil once again?

     How much do the people around you really hide?  The Color of Evil opens the doors wide to this question and shows you just how many dark secrets a small town can hold.

    This book is both exciting and compelling, filled with young romance and riveting danger.  Some graphic scenes keep this book suitable for those above thirteen only, but add to the sense of foreboding and horror…

    This book is intense with a capital “I”; the first of a trilogy, I sincerely hope it sets an example for the two other books to come.  The Color of Evil is highly recommended by Boyu Huang. (Allbooks Review)

What the Candidates Spent Per Vote

Derek Thompson of BuzzFeed broke down the data on political spending in Iowa to determine how much each candidate and their supporters paid per vote in the Iowa caucuses.

The breakdown: Rick Perry spent far more than any other candidate with $478.40 per vote, followed by Mitt Romney at $154.90, Ron Paul at $103.30, Newt Gingrich at $89.84, Rick Santorum at just $20.50, and Michele Bachmann at $3.95.

I attended the caucuses in Des Moines as an observer at Precinct #4 in Clive. The building housed a management investment firm, DeWray Capital Management, at 1301 University. When we arrived at my friend’s original polling place, we learned that it was a very small precinct, but Rick Santorum was expected, in person, in Clive, so it was to Clive that we went next.

Rick Santorum asking Clive Precinct #4 voters for their vote on caucus night. He came within 8 vote of winning.

We could barely get inside the door to hear the pitches for each of the candidates. I actually ended up handing my Nikon D90 to a man who was at least 6’ 7”, and asking him to see if he could get a picture of Santorum, whom we could hear, but not see. Santorum was making a pitch for 2-parent families and talking about how people need to work and get married. He said, “You can’t mention or promote the word.  We need someone who is going to draw a strong contrast (to the incumbent).” Rick Santorum said he stood for limited government, lower taxes and less government and added, “I’ve put forth a balanced budget. I would balance the budget in 5 years. I also have the experience. He claimed to be the major author of 2 pieces of legislation on Syrian and Iran.  He ended by saying, “You need a leader who will make sure that tour enemies will fear us and our allies will trust us.” Santorum did not make mention of his remark (on “Meet the Press”) that he would bomb Iran if they crossed his “line in the sand.” Santorum said that those who participated in the Iowa caucuses would be better leaders because they came to Iowa.  “If it were not for the caucuses, it would just be media buys and TV ads.  If we’re fortunate, Iowa will be one of the battlegrounds.  People like me criss-crossed this state.  Come 2012 we’re gonna’ put it back in the Bush column.  Whatever differences there may be, they pale into insignificance (with the incumbent.) Santorum cited the federal take-over of the auto industry, never once mentioning that, without such intervention, there would now BE no auto industry in the U.S. He also talked about the financial bail-out of Wall Street and Health Care, saying it represented 1/7 of our GDP. He claimed that the failed stimulus plan cost 4 million jobs and said, “Iran is on the verge of nuclear weapons.  This is the record of this administration.” (*Actually, much of it is the legacy of the failed administration of George W. Bush.) He cited the Hyde Amendment of late 70s and said, “We must pray like it all depends on God and work like it all depends on us, because it does.” At no time did Santorum make mention of Obama’s successes such as taking out Osama bin Laden, getting any health care help out to the masses at all, or bringing home the troops from Iraq.

Ron Paul's After-Party sported a dog named Reeses wearing Ron Paul for President buttons,

At this point, “defeat Obama” clipboards were handed out and comments were made about what a powerful Republican voting block “Clive 4”is. (“We need your help.”)

After Santorum finished, representatives for the other candidates spoke on their candidates’ behalf.

Michele Bachman

Christina Messinia, speaking for Michele Bachman.

First up was a young woman in a black top and tight red pants with gold sparkly flats. She was dressed inappropriately for such an elite group. She did not speak well and looked as though she were no more than 21 years old. Her name was Christina Messinia and she espoused Christian values and the values of Ronald Reagan, calling Bachman “an inspiration” and “fearless.” Her pitch was weak.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul’s grandson, 13-year-old Robert “Robb” Paul came to the microphone next, accompanied by his mother Kelly, wife of Rand Paul.  She mentioned her 21 years of marriage and ‘cousins by the dozens” and then let young Robb deliver a message about his grandfather, the 74-year-old Ron Paul.  Kelly cited the fact that only 4 U.S. Congressmen stood up for Ronald Reagan when he wished to run for President, and one of them was Ron Paul. Kelly mentioned that Ron Paul had predicted the economic

Robert "Rob" Paul, son of Rand Paul and grandson of Ron Paul, delivers a pitch for his 74-year-old Grandfather in Clive.

collapse and went on to say that he would make $1 trillion in cuts without cutting Social Security or the national defense budget.  She also said, “He (Paul) believes that war is not something we should go into without a Congressional declaration of war.” Kelly said, “National polls show him defeating Barack Obama in a head-to-head combat,” which she quickly changed to “head-to-head match-up.”  Then young Rob had his say and was very cute.

Newt Gingrich                                      

Newt Gingrich's daughter, Jackie Cushman and son.

Newt Gingrich had sent a married daughter from one of his 3 marriages.  Her name was Jackie Cushman and she brought her 2 children, a boy and a girl, whom, she said, would have to write a paper about the experience of the Iowa caucuses “as a civics lesson,” which caused her daughter to roll her eyes.  Ms. Cushman rambled on about how Newt was the son of a 27-year World War II infantryman who served at Verdun and “A man who would risk his life for his dogs.” She said, “He is a doer not a talker,” although the impression I got of Newt at his rally here in town is that he is more of a talker than a doer.

Rick Perry

Jennifer Hayes, speaking for Rick Perry at the Clive Precinct #4.

Next up was Jennifer Hayes, who said, “I’m not a member of his staff. Just a follower.” She declared that she became a follower when she met Perry at church on Sunday. She cited his track record and “the person that he is.” She said she was “tired of politicians saying one thing and doing another.  As the mother of 3 children, I want my country back.” It was about this point in time that I noticed that the audience did not have one single brown, black or any other ethnic face. It was singularly old and white.

Mitt Romney

Ambassador Mary Kremer spoke on behalf of Mitt Romney, citing her 13 years in the state legislature.  She said, “To whom much is given, much is expected.” Mary said that the 4^thprecinct was “a bellwether precinct.” She also said, “It’s not so much who wins,

Ambassador Mary Kremer speaks for Mitt Romney in Clive on caucus night,

it is that everyone can who comes here to show us who they are, what their values are. “ She then touted Romney’s leadership skills and his ability to create a vision of the future and said something about, “The world is a better place if the next century is an American century.” Ms. Kremer added, “It is a very different thing to get something passed than to get something implemented.” She claimed that every leadership opportunity Mitt Romney had encountered had been “a success,” although Wikipedia notes how his Mormon trip to France to try to convert the French to Mormonism did not go so well, at first. Of Obama, Ms. Kremer said, “On his best day he says, it could be worse.  In my view, worse would be having a second term for our current president.” She described Romney as steadfast (despite evidence that he has changed his position(s) many times) and said, “He would never do anything in office that would embarrass the country or you or me.” (*The Ambassador must have a crystal ball to know such things.) She ended her remarks by saying, “Romney is the one candidate they (the Democrats) fear more than any other.”
That last part is probably true, even if the other parts weren’t. The Clive group did go for Romney in polling, although my hometown county (Buchanan) went for Santorum, which is disappointing, and Pocahontas County also seemed smitten with Santorum. What I have read about his taking his dead child home so his other children could play with it and subjecting his unborn child and pregnant wife to possible death, rather than a therapeutic abortion, also did not make sense. Santorum also said, on the most recent “Meet the Press,” that he would bomb Iran.

Newt Gingrich and wife Callista (& family) on caucus night in Des Moines.

After we left Clive, we went to the downtown Marriott, in search of the Ron Paul After-Party. It turned out that we were at the wrong Marriott. The streets of downtown Des Moines were deserted and there were many parking places on the streets. We went inside and ordered one drink and, during that brief period, while we talked to other caucus observers from Wisconsin (one named Moriarty), we learned that we should have gone to the Ankeny Marriott for the Ron Paul After-Party and I was able to get a picture of Newt Gingrich, his wife and entourage.

We drove out to Ankeny to the Marriott and just missed Ron Paul’s remarks to the crowd assembled. I took pictures of a dog named Reeses wearing Ron Paul buttons and we left and went home.

It was a very dull night out. “When did the Republican party become the party of the emotionally unstable?” asked David Letterman on his January 4^th program.

When, indeed.

Newt Gingrich in Davenport (IA) on Dec. 19, 2011.

Newt Gingrich spoke at Global Security Services in Davenport, Iowa at 2:30 p.m. on Monday, Dec. 19, to a small crowd of approximately 100 people. There was no press check-in, which was odd, but there was food, which was also unusual. Only 10 chairs were set up in what appeared to be a garage. And a garage across from the Col Ballroom—not the best part of town— an area which the national media following the campaign were photographing in all its paint-peeling glory.

Face the Nation Appearance

The day prior, Newt  appeared on the Sunday, Dec. 18 “Face the Nation” program with Bob Schieffer, where he discounted the Des Moines Register’s endorsement of opponent Mitt Romney saying it was from a liberal paper. He touted his own endorsement by the Manchester Union Leader. [Iowans would not  categorize the Register as liberal.] At that time, he dodged Schieffer’s charges (from Romney) that he was “an unreliable leader in the Conservative movement.” Newt laughed when asked if he had asked for Christine O”Donnell’s (“I am not a witch”) endorsement, which Romney also got. Newt also seemed proud when he said, “I’m not a lawyer. I call that an advantage.”

Newt Gingrich.

From that point on,  Newt rambled about the 1958 Warren Court, the Federalist papers (and the abolishing of over 1/2 of the judges that had just been placed in their posts, by Thomas Jefferson) and called the Dred Scott decision, extending a ban on slavery to the entire nation, bad. (So did Bachmann in the last Republican debate). Newt most famously and repetitively  attacked the 9th Circuit Court because of its stance on “one nation, under God” and repeated that assertion on Monday in Davenport.

Newt: “Everything you’ve heard is true.”

For a guy who’s been married 3 times (cheated on his first 2 wives and asked for a divorce when the first was in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery), who has now announced that he is Catholic (in deference to wife #3), he sure has a “holier-than-thou” attitude. [I'm Catholic, and I'm even wondering how a man who has already been married two times can BE married, as a Catholic. Plus, he's only BEEN a Catholic for 2 years.] And I’m not even going to get into his censuring by Congress or the lobbying charges hurled by Bachmann in the last debate.

Evangelical Voters in Iowa

Newt points the finger.

I don’t think Newt is fooling the Evangelicals in Iowa (or anywhere else.) In a piece entitled “Pastors: Newt Gingrich Is Empty Suit With Broken Zipper” by Tony Leys on 12/13, the Reverend Albert Calaway of Indianola wrote, “Mr. Gingrich is the Don Draper of 2012.  When it comes to his character record, he’s a very fine, empty suit with a broken zipper. Christians in Iowa—and I understand many of his old U.S. House colleagues as well—desperately want to see a changed man, yet we keep on seeing a glib, wordy cheater. On all fronts, Newt should just be faithful.” The Reverend went on, “When you endorse a check, you sign it.  When you get married, you sign the license. When you sign a contract or covenant, that means you are all in. But, Mr. Gingrich has yet to sign for many things which Christian Iowa cares about very deeply.”

Ouch!

The Courts

Larry Riney, author of the book on the "Effie Afton" and the Lincoln/Douglas debates, is this you in the crowd?

Newt also took some flak from Schieffer (on “Face the Nation”)  over Newt’s avowed intention to reform the courts. Schieffer wanted to know: “Wouldn’t your policies throw the courts into chaos?” Newt pointed out that there were 80 judgeships vacant out of 800 and continued his attack on judges, in general. “There is a fundamental conflict underway about what kind of country we’re going to be,” said the Now Holy candidate. This quote (from Dec. 5, 2011 “Newsweek”) is also telling: “A country which has been, since 1963, relentlessly in the courts driving God out of public life shouldn’t be surprised at all the problems we have because we’ve in fact attempted to create a secular country, which I think is frankly a nightmare.” Oh, Puh-leese. This from the same man who was having an affair while prosecuting Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky mess.

That statement was made at the FAMiLY Leader debate, where Vander Plaats, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor against Terry Branstadt said, “Though they don’t embrace or endorse or condone his (newt’s) personal past,. they might be more willing to get over that if he’s the best one to lead to preserve the America they want for their children.” Well, Bob, he’s not. Get over it. Newt is Newt, and, as he said on Monday—the day after his “Face the Nation” appearance—”I’m really different than what they’re (Washington, D.C.) used to.” I would say that this comment, as well, is quite disingenuous, since Newt has spent more time in Washington than any of the other potential candidates, with the possible exception of Libertarian Texas Senator Ron Paul, who’s got to be the oldest guy running for anything (born Aug. 20, 1935).

An unidentified audience member catches the mood of the crowd.

The Dec. 5 “Newsweek” article stated —erroneously, I feel—”The Bible makes room for complicated, morally compromised heroes. Now Christian conservatives, desperate for an alternative to Mitt Romney, are learning to do so as well.” That was Michelle Goldberg’s view in an article entitled “Let There Be Newt.” No, Michelle, Iowans are not learning any such thing, and if you were from these parts, you’d have picked up on that, but, apparently, you’re not and you haven’t.  Today’s Huffington Post polls show Ron Paul surging at 24%, Romney at 20% and Newt sliding into oblivion at 14%. The article was written by someone named Michelle Goldberg and accompanied by a picture of Newt with a halo light effect. I have a feeling that Ms. Goldberg is not from around here, she said wryly.

The Mainstream Media’s Take
The national media I spoke with today characterized Newt’s appearance this day as “Newt’s book tour” (he’s written 24) and a pushy woman in a red dress seemed to be barking orders about “the books” and getting the books out for purchase. There were precious few other workers apparent. Newt, himself, said in closing, “We need folks in every precincts.

Apparently Newt needs more workers to contact potential caucus-goers, since 60% had been contacted by Romney’s people, according to a poll by the “New York Times,” 47% by Ron Paul’s, and only 30%—-1/2 of what Romney has scored—by Gingrich’s workers. The comment made to me by the other press was that, “He’s disorganized.”

Newt quotes from his Davenport Dec. 19, 2011 appearance :

Zepelin, a guide dog for the blind, toughs out the speech with trainer Julie Hogenson of Princeton, Iowa.

On negative ads:  “The only person who profits from negative ads is Barack Obama, and I think that’s pretty reprehensible behavior.” (Meanwhile, outside in the parking lot, ironically enough, opponents were placing negative flyers under our car door handles.) Most of the carping was about Newt’s taking money from Freddie Mac as a “lobbyist” by some other name.

On Israel:  “I’m not prepared to see Israel annihilated. …We need to give a sense that we are a leading country and willing to defend ourselves.”  In watching GPS (Global Public Square) with Fahreed Zakaria on Sunday, December 18th,  all of the panelists. which included the Jewish editor of the “New Yorker” magazine and well-known Republican speechwriter Peggy Noonan, decried the constant harping by the Republican candidates on Israel as the sum and substance of U.S. foreign policy. All saw it as pandering to the United States  Jewish vote. All noted that foreign policy is notoriously complex and simply declaring one’s support for Israel ignores the complexity of modern foreign policy. Most of the panelists, in fact, were complimentary of Obama’s handling of the Libyan situation. Newt then added that he had “taught 1 and 2 star generals” and you just got the feeling that his giant ego could barely be contained. The man has a HUGE head and  a HUGE ego to go with it.

On North Korea (whose leader, Kim Jong II died recently): “We have no idea whether the new regime will be more open or worse.” [Well, gee, Newt. I'll alert the media to that insightful bit of hot air.]

This man spoke up about having to work into his 60s and 70s, not being able to count on Social Security, which Newt did not seem particularly keen on preserving.

On the economy:  “I believe it is possible to turn around the economy with amazing speed…That’s why we need a program for very dramatic job creation.” (No specifics offered.) Newt cited Ronald Reagan creating one million jobs in August of 1993 and unemployment dropping from 10.8 to 5.6% during Reagan’s years. Those were very different years, and I don’t see Ronnie (Trickle Down) Reagan anywhere around at this time. Nor do I see ANY president capable of turning around the economy “with amazing speed.” That includes Romney .

On Social Security:  “People should not have to depend on politicians, nor be threatened by the loss of their Social Security check.” Newt seemed to be in favor of letting people not pay in to Social Security and save the money themselves….which, of course, is problematic if they do not.

On college students and student loans:  “They (students at the College of the Ozarks, Newt’s model college for financial assistance) all do real work. I’m an advocate of real work.” Newt held up some College in the Ozarks to a student from Iowa State University in Ames who asked him a question about public education. The student noted that the average student debt for  Ames graduates is $48,000. She wanted to know if that was “public education.” Ames is a fine school. To tell Iowa State University that they should start taking cues from a college in the Ozarks that nobody has ever heard of sounded lame.

On gun ownership:  “Our rights will not be taken away from us by a dictatorial government.” Nice rhetoric. Again, no substantive policy discussion.

The sparse crowd. Only 10 chairs, and 2 of them are empty.

On  Freddie Mac and charges that he received over a million ($1.2 million? $1.6 million?) in payment for lobbying efforts for them:  “I should have had a much more coherent answer. The Gingrich Group was hired. I only made about $35,000 a year.  I make more than that for speeches.” Again, your ego is showing, Newt. Take it down a notch.

On his run for the White House:  “I am really different than what they’re used to.” About that time, as a joke, he said, “It’s tricky for me to turn to the left, but I’m trying.” Whatever Newt does seems “tricky,” to me, and I am not surprised that Donald Trump seemed to be his biggest supporter, while none of the 12 people he served with in Congress has come out and endorsed him, nor did John Boehner during his appearance on “Meet the Press” on Sunday, December 18th.

Would he propose a new Contract with America?  “Yes. I’d use executive orders to do away with 100 to 200 White House czars on my first day in office.” I wonder if he would bring up some of his less feasible ideas about Mars, et. al.? About this time, Newt began comparing Obama to Saul Alinsky. I doubt if many in the room knew much about Saul Alinsky. I did not, so I looked him up when I got home. Here are the results:

Saul Alinsky Reference

Newt signing books, which went on for quite some time.

Saul Alinsky was born in Chicago in 1909 and became a cracker-jack community organizer.  Adlai Stevenson said of Alinsky:  “Alinsky’s aims most faithfully reflect our ideals of brotherhood, tolerance, charity and dignity of the individual.” If you don’t like Adlai Stevenson, consider that William F. Buckley, that Conservative icon said of him that he was a near-genius at organizing.

Alinsky wrote, “What follows is for those who want to change the world from what it is to what they believe it should be. ‘The Prince’ was written by Machiavelli for the Haves on how to hold power. My book was written for the Have-Nots on how to take it away.”

Wikipedia goes on to say that Alinsky would not join political organizations of any kind, including those he formed. He said, when asked about Communist and Socialist parties, “I prize my independence too much. And, philosophically, I could never accept any rigid dogma or ideology, whether it’s Christianity or Marxism.  One of the most important things in life is what Judge Learned Hand described as ‘that ever-gnawing inner doubt as to whether you’re right.’ If you don’t have that, if you think you’ve got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated. The greatest crimes in history have been perpetrated by such religious and political and racial fanatics, from the persecutions of the Inquisition on down to Communist purges and Nazi genocide.” When I heard the term(s) “intellectually constipated” and “doctrinaire” and read Alinsky’s description of someone who thinks they know everything, Newt’s name was used to illustrate this personality trait.

So, here’s my question: Why would it be a “bad” thing to be compared to a man who tried to help the poor and disenfranchised to organize and get their fair share? Newt’s comparison of Obama to Alinsky seems to be the fear of the rich white man who sees his grip on power threatened by the likes of the Occupy movement.

Debates Ad Nauseum

Newt Gingrich.

Last,  but not least, Gingrich told the audience (citing the Lincoln/Douglas debates) that, if he is the candidate, he wants to debate Obama constantly and that, if Obama will not agree, he would let the White House be his scheduler and arrive in the towns where Obama was to speak 4 hours behind him.  “Unlike the president, I studied American history,” crowed Gingrich. Right. And Obama studied law at Harvard and life in the streets of both Chicago, the Philippines and Hawaii.  Gingrich went on to say, “How can he say he is afraid to debate some guy who taught at West Georgia College?” (He hasn’t said it, that I have heard.) And Newt added, “I will concede in advance that he can use a teleprompter.” Wow! That old Speaker of the House arrogance just rolled off Newt’s back like water off a duck’s.

Woman Hurt at Rally

I hope this woman had an X-ray. Check out the bump on her forehead.

Gingrich then signed a book for a very nice elderly lady from Florida who fell down on her way into the garage (missed the step) and took a very nasty fall onto hard concrete, giving herself a huge goose egg on her forehead. I urged Lou Phillips to get an X-ray after she said, “Oh, the EMTs looked at it.” All I could think of was Liam Neeson’s loss of his wife, Vanessa Redgrave’s daughter, the actress Natasha Richardson, who fell while skiing and hit her head, but said she was “fine” for several hours afterward, ultimately dying from the fall.

After the rally was over, we were not allowed to leave until Elvis had left the building and we were sternly warned not to take any pictures or video. [Like anyone wanted to.] All the national press referenced this appearance as “Newt’s book tour.”

Polls Show Gingrich Falling; Paul Rising

Gingrich, put a brave face in the wake of the release of a new (Dec. 19) Huffington Post survey of 597 caucus-goers that shows Ron Paul at 23%, Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt sinking to 14% saying, “President Ronald Reagan was 30 points behind in the polls at this same time in his presidential run.”

That sounds about right, and it is what I predicted days ago: a Ron Paul surge. Let’s face it: Bachmann and Santorum are toast. Perry has done himself in with his “oops” moments. Cain was not able.  Romney may take the nomination, nationally, but Iowans are peeved that he didn’t come here and court them, as he did in 2008.

Romney in 2008

That year, Romney started with his $10 million of ads in March (of 2007) and visited all 99 counties (either himself or via his family members). This year, he spent only about a week in Iowa and had spent $3.1 million on TV and radio spots, but had only used about $868,000 of it, to date.

The Col Ballroom on W. 4th St., across from the rally, in a decidedly seedy part of Daveport, Iowa.

I did hear some rumblings about Perry’s ads from the locals, also. They don’t like them.

If Iowa could give their seal of approval to Huckabee in 2008, despite the fact that he didn’t win the party’s nomination, there is nothing to stop them from anointing Ron Paul this time. Yes, he’s ancient. Yes, he’s flakey. But he’s likeable and the young support him. He won’t win the national nomination, but anybody but Newt!

Writer Christopher Hitchens, who died of esophageal cancer on Dec. 15, 2011.

Christopher Hitchins’ death on December 15 makes it time to share this story of a Celebrity Encounter at the June, 2011 BEA (Book Expo America). Maybe encounter is too strong a word. More like two ships passing in the night.

I had bought a ticket for the breakfast, which begins early in the morning, but I did not purchase the food, but only a seat on the perimeter, as per usual. You still get the free books…if they are giving them out. (Last year, only chapters of books, not entire books). Other years, free copies of “The Kite Runner,” etc.

Because all the seats on the perimeter appeared to be occupied, I saw a group of people who were going up some stairs through a door near the back of the hall. They began climbing upwards. In my mind, I envisioned a balcony or loggia, like a church choir loft, if you will, and one of the men in the party was carrying a glass which was obviously booze, as it had a little parasol in it. This was approximately 9 a.m. and I remember thinking that that individual must really like to party hearty! I decided to follow the group and went through the same door and began climbing.

At about the second landing, I caught a glimpse of the group ahead of me and recognized Christopher Hitchens as the man carrying the drink. I also realized that I was, inadvertently, crashing the group of would-be speakers, who were apparently climbing to a behind-the-stage area where they would be introduced and seated.

Whoops!

I quietly tip-toed downstairs and took a seat on chairs at the back of the hall, the perimeter .
When Hitchens was introduced (by Patton Oswalt, the stand-up comedian who is now co-starring opposite Charlize Theron in “Young Adult”) he strode to the microphone and recited several dirty limericks, most of them by heart. As I recall, he also said something about homosexual hi-jinks in an English boarding school, but his entire demeanor was very preoccupied and grim. He then left, with Patton Oswalt explaining that he “had to catch a plane” or some such. Keep in mind, this was about 7 months before he would die of esophageal cancer, and he had known he was probably terminally ill for a year and a half before he died quite recently, of pneumonia from complications of the disease.

In the January issue of “Vanity Fair” Hitchens’ final essay appears, entitled “Trial of the Will.” He debunks the saying, “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” and even speculated that Nietzsche, to whom the quote is attributed, might have stolen it from Goethe. Hitchens gives a brief thumbnail capsule of Nietzsche’s life. To wit:  “In the remainder of his life, however, .Nietzsche seems to have caught an early dose of syphilis, very probably during his first-ever sexual encounter, which gave him crushing migraine headaches and attacks of blindness and metastasized into dementia and paralysis. This, while it did not kill him right away, certainly contributed to his death and cannot possibly, in the meanwhile, be said to have made him stronger.”  More details of Nietzche’s life are provided by the terminally ill writer and, of his own condition he said, “And then I had an unprompted rogue thought: if I had been told about all this in advance, would I have opted for the treatment?  There were several moments as I bucked and writhed and gasped and cursed when I seriously doubted it.”

Hitchens, who was an avowed atheist and told Anderson Cooper that, if he heard stories that, on his deathbed he had recanted and “gotten religion,” he should not believe such reports. He recounted a poem by John Betjeman called “Five O’Clock Shadow:”

This is the time of day when we in the Men’s Ward

Think:  “One more surge of the pain and I give up the fight.”

When he who struggles for breath can struggle less strongly.

This is the time of day that is worse than night.”

Added Hitchens, “I have come to know that feeling all right: the sensation and conviction that the pain will never go away and that the wait for the next fix is unjustly long.  Then a sudden fit of breathlessness, followed by some pointless coughing and then—if it’s a lousy day—by more expectoration than I can handle. Pints of old saliva, occasional mucus, and what the hell do I need heartburn for at this exact moment?  It’s not as if I have eaten anything:  a tube delivers all my nourishment. All of this, and the childish resentment that goes with it, constitutes a weakening.  So does the amazing weight loss that the tube seems unable to combat.  I have now lost almost a third of my body mass since the cancer was diagnosed: it may not kill me, but the atrophy of muscle makes it harder to take even the simple exercises without which I’ll become more enfeebled still.”

And Hitchens added, “I am typing this having just had an injection to try to reduce the pain in my arms, hand, and fingers.  The chief side effect of this pain is numbness in the extremities, filling me with the not irrational fear that I shall lose the ability to write.  Without that ability, I feel sure in advance, my ‘will to live’ would be hugely attenuated.  I often grandly say that writing is not just my living and my livelihood, but my very life, and it’s true.  Almost like the threatened loss of my voice, which is currently being alleviated by some temporary injections into my vocal folds, I feel my personality and identity dissolving as I contemplate dead hands and the loss of the transmission belts that connect me to writing and thinking.”

“These are progressive weaknesses that in a more normal life might have taken decades to catch up with me.  But, as with the normal life, one finds that every passing day represents more and more relentlessly subtracted from less and less.  In other words, the process both etiolates you and moves you nearer toward death.  How could it be otherwise?”

And how could the end have been other than it was. Christopher Hitchens, dead at 62.