Like many farmers, he says he can find it hard to draw a line between work and downtime.

“We’re terrible in agriculture. We kind of wear it as a badge of honour … that we’re always thinking about farming,” says Stone, a fourth-generation farmer near Davidson, Sask.

Further blurring the lines, he says farmers often choose agriculture-related leisure activities.

“Finding healthy hobbies outside of that can be really difficult. You still want to have agriculture as your hobby, but … there’s times when it would be nice to just think about something else.”

As common as that mindset may be, experts say it’s also contributing to a growing risk of burnout among Canadian farmers.

In recent years, researchers have shifted their understanding of burnout, defined as a state of physical, mental and emotional exhaustion, away from simply being tired toward a broader imbalance between demands and recovery, caused by prolonged stress.

This evolving understanding means that farmers who have trouble keeping work and recovery time separate — a problem only intensified by our constant connectivity — are even more at risk, says Dr. Jody Carrington, a clinical psychologist based in Olds, Alta., who has strong ties to the agriculture sector.

“We are the first generation of farmers who wake up to our phones,” she says. “Before we even check if anybody’s calving or ‘is it raining today,’ I’m in my email. When you check your email before you even pee, your cortisol rises.”

But at the same time, awareness of these risks is growing.

After nearly three decades of farming, Stone says he has experienced and witnessed burnout firsthand, prompting him to rethink what it takes to build a sustainable life in agriculture. As a result, he has come up with several tried and tested strategies for doing so.

And as another busy season launches — and as burnout rates spike in agriculture, alongside other mental health issues — experts say that strategies like Stone’s will be critical for the sustainability of a sector uniquely exposed to chronic pressure and unpredictable risk.

The latest research on causes of burnout

The latest research on burnout tells us that the problem is a lot more complex than it once was.

It’s no longer just about being physically tired, or too busy, or having a tough year, but rather what happens when there’s an imbalance between what drains you and what restores you, says Carrington.

“Essentially, the definition is when the resources outside of work intended to fill your soul are not greater than the ones that get sucked from your soul at work.”

Burnout tends to show up in three ways: emotional exhaustion, a loss of compassion and a growing sense of futility, she says, which leads to further problems.

“They just don’t continue to work. We lose access to innovation, to creativity, to purpose, passion, all those things go offline,” says Carrington.

For Stone, that definition rings true. He says in his experience, burnout on the farm usually comes from a cumulative stress load that builds over time.

“Mental and physical exhaustion is probably a far more common thing for people than they realize. It just absolutely destroys everything. You can’t operate properly … all that stuff that comes with absolute exhaustion in your mind and in your body.”

And while farmers are at greater risk of burnout, this growing problem isn’t unique to the agriculture sector. Data from 2024 showed that 41 per cent of people around the world experienced significant stress at work each day, while other recent data suggested one in two North American workers have symptoms of burnout.

At the same time, rising rates of anxiety and depression among Canadian farmers point to something broader, Carrington says.

“We’re in an understandable human response to a loneliness epidemic,” she says.

Why farmers are especially at risk

With burnout rates rising across industries, the question becomes: what is driving this?

And, specifically, what is driving this within the agriculture sector?

One factor is isolation, especially as farms grow larger and more mechanized, Carrington says.

Technology has also reshaped the workday, improving on-farm efficiency but also increasing time spent working alone.

“You don’t have small family farms anymore. You used to be able to seed together, harvest together,” she says, adding that farms are also moving physically further apart as well. “Just the lack of proximity to each other … we lose access to each other.”

At the same time, Stone says burnout can stem from farmers trying to do everything themselves, especially as operations grow in size and complexity.

“I was kind of a ‘I’ll just do it myself so that it’s done properly’ guy,” says Stone.

Overlaying all of this is a deeply ingrained culture of toughness within the agriculture sector, he says.

“There’s lots of ‘Just suck it up, just drink some more energy drinks and coffee, you work harder and it’ll be fine’,” he says. “There’s still a significant stigma.”

Carrington says that mindset can be especially dangerous in a sector where many already struggle to talk openly about stress, believing that showing emotion signals weakness.

“We’re proud of it, that we’re tough,” she says, adding that this has contributed to a culture of not asking for help when it’s needed.

“It has been the most unhelped … group of people, because we didn’t need it.”

What farmers can do to prevent burnout

The good news is that the agriculture sector is talking more openly about these types of issues.

There is growing awareness about the mental health challenges that the agriculture sector faces, and growing resources to help address them.

Stone has developed his own coping strategies for preventing burnout. He says it starts with letting go of the idea that a good farmer has to do everything alone.

After years of employing this approach (to make sure the work was done “properly”), he says he started to see that this mindset was actually damaging, not admirable, especially as his farm grew in complexity.

“Once you start realizing that there is no prize for doing it all yourself, and there’s no prize for just being ragged … it’s certainly helped quite a lot.”

As a result, he has learned to intentionally build a team around him, offload responsibilities and redefine his own role. For example, although he has a degree in agronomy, he now hires an agronomist for support because he just doesn’t have time for this type of work.

“You become more of a … human resource manager as well as a farmer,” he says. “You shouldn’t feel bad about finding what your spot is.”

At the same time, he says he’s learned to let go of expectations around how things should be done and focus on the things within his control, for example, maintaining all the farm equipment.

“You’ve done the job of … making sure that all the details are taken care of so that you have the most efficient operation that you can. Once you’ve done all you can do, I think it’s a little easier to let go. You do have to have that ability to let certain things go … to let people do it their way and not stew about it too much,” says Stone.

Another key change he has made has been treating rest as part of the job, not something that comes after it. He approaches busy seasons less like a sprint and more like a marathon that requires pacing.

“We’ve certainly had more conversations now about boundaries, making sure that everyone can get some rest. There’s no prize for being the person who works the longest, has the most hours. It’s feeling rested and feeling good about the job you’re doing.”

He says at the core of it all is the simple principle that taking care of your own well-being comes first.

“There’s nothing so important on your farm or in your life that you (can’t) look after yourself.”

Carrington echoes Stone’s comments about ensuring self-care is a top priority.

“A tractor will stop if you don’t put gas in it. Even if you coast, even if you go slow, you’re the same way.”

Another priority should be regulating the nervous system and rebuilding connections, she says, and this includes even small efforts each day.

“How many times are you given a compliment in a day? How many times are you waving at your neighbours?”

The good news

Despite these risks, Carrington says there are a lot of aspects of farm culture that can serve as safeguards against isolation and help nurture connections and joy.

For one, she believes that rural life has long been and continues to be defined by a deep sense of community.

“When somebody’s barn breaks down, we’re all going to show up. If somebody has a heart attack during harvest, we’re all coming together to get the crop off.”

She believes that farmers can lean into these communities when they’re starting to feel the effects of long-term stress.

“We have the answer to how to cure it. We’ve just got to keep doing that a little bit more.”

She also encourages farmers to reconnect with the meaning and personal connections that come from their work.

“Who is my biggest mentor in this space? Who did I look up to? What did they do well? Why do I want to do this stuff anyway?”

For Stone, that meaning shows up in family, teamwork and connections, both on and off the farm. He also believes that social media, despite its downsides, has created a broader sense of community among farmers.

And in more recent years, he’s encouraged by how much the conversation around mental health has changed.

“There’s been lots of talk about this topic. There’s been so much headway made in the last five to 10 years. I think it’s important to continue.”

Finally, Carrington says it’s important for farmers to lean into the simple things around them that can spark joy, or notice what’s often overlooked.

“When is the last time you belly laughed with your babies? When is the last time you danced in your kitchen sober? Sunrise in Saskatchewan, (that’s) a little slice of heaven,” she says.

To that end, producers are looking for more clarity on seeding deadlines as they assess risk during the setback.

“This has been a challenging spring and having a clear understanding of how recommended seeding dates affect risk and coverage is critical,” said Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS) President Bill Prybylski in a recent statement.

According to the release, APAS is working with the Ministry of Agriculture and the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation (SCIC) to provide more information to assist producers with their seeding decisions.

APAS said Saskatchewan producers are seeking a better understanding of how recommended seeding dates and the final seeding deadline relate to crop insurance coverage, particularly as cold and wet conditions have significantly slowed seeding progress.

Spring seeding is well behind normal according to APAS. As of May 18, seeding in the province was 29 percent complete, compared to 72 percent at the same time last year and a 10-year average of 52 percent.

As seeding dates approach, progress remains limited in some regions, including the northeast and northwest.

SCIC confirms crops remain insurable up to the final seeding deadline of June 20. Any losses not related to the seeding date, like drought disease, wind, and hail, are all insured.

Seeding beyond recommended dates identified in the SCIC Seeding Date Tool carries increased risk. Producers may have reduced claims if their losses are abnormal compared to other farmers in their area.

It’s recommended producers contact their local SCIC Customer Service Office to discuss how timing may affect their individual coverage and risk if they plan to seed beyond recommended seeding date.

“We welcome SCIC’s assurances that area-wide delays will not unduly penalize farmers. Producers need this kind of clear and timely information so they can make sound seeding and business decisions,” said Prybylski…“We encourage producers to connect directly with SCIC to ensure they have the information they need,” he said.

He noted broader outreach include additional channels, such as social media and other accessible formats will help ensure communication from the SCIC better reach busy producers make informed decisions during the growing season.

Based on what has happened this spring, if we continue to let our guard down, soil erosion could be a big problem again.

We’ve all heard the stories from the 1930s, and you can still see the aftermath.

I have a short row of caragana trees at the edge of a field, part of a homestead yard that’s long gone. The mound of dirt in the middle of the tree row is two or three feet high — soil that was trapped from windstorms 80 or 90 years ago.

It’s hard to imagine soil erosion so serious that some fence lines were completely buried.

The mindset at the time was that a black soil surface with little or no crop residue was the sign of a good farmer. You wanted fields that looked like a garden patch.

That thinking changed, and producers began to conserve crop residue, but the problem wasn’t really solved.

The dust storms of the 1980s are within the living memory of many more people. Poor crops led to limited soil cover. Summerfallow by tillage was a common practice, and some ugly spring dust storms ensued.

As the patent on Roundup expired, the price of glyphosate dropped. This made spring weed control feasible with a herbicide application rather than tillage. As direct seeding implements were invented and adopted, erosion risk dropped.

At the same time, weed control in summerfallow switched from tillage to herbicides. Chem fallow replaced two to four tillage operations.

As well, the acreage of summerfallow steadily dropped as pulse crops flourished and producers switched to continuous cropping.

Serious wind erosion became a problem of bygone eras. Modern agriculture had triumphed.

So, what changed? Why so many serious soil erosion events this spring? Why are some ditches filled with blow dirt?

It’s easy to blame the high winds this spring, but high wind is often a feature of the Prairie climate. Some springs have more wind than others, but we haven’t seen erosion of this scale in so many locations in a long time.

Tillage is on the rise in many areas, especially fall tillage.

Unfortunately, as glyphosate becomes less and less effective due to herbicide resistance, tillage may become more necessary.

The importance of pulse crops — lentils, field peas, chickpeas and soybeans — cannot be overstated for their sustainability and profitability.

However, pulse crops leave a limited amount of crop residue on the soil. In regions where every second year is typically a pulse crop, that can spell erosion disaster.

Pulse crop fields are typically rolled to push rocks into the ground and let the combine header slide over the ground more easily. This often pulverizes the soil, making it vulnerable in high winds.

And, of course, drought-reduced crops mean less residue, no matter what you’re growing.

While soil erosion has been bad in many areas this spring, it could have been worse.

Many producers, including me, dodged a bullet. Headlands on some fields had already sifted a bit, and a spell of very high winds was forecast. Fortunately, rain arrived before the wind became extreme, or the sky would have been black in even more areas.

Seeing the soil blow away is sickening. We need to be more vigilant and thoughtful in our farming practices to minimize the risk.

This is the response in the face of disruptions with our largest trading partner, the United States. It has also been a response to tariff disputes with China.

To its credit, the federal government is actively seeking multiple new trade agreements (some might not make sense, but that is another commentary).

The problem is not that this is the wrong pathway. The problem is that we often treat diversification as a slogan instead of strategically enabling farmers, processors and exporters to achieve the objective.

To be clear, the responsibility for realizing diversification is not only the job of government. Industry has a responsibility to step up to the plate as well.

Hog production and pork processing in Canada is a critical component of the national gross domestic production.

Almost all of this contribution is driven by exports.

The exposure to the whims of U.S. trade policy is large. We are never going to replace the U.S. demand for our weanlings, but what do we need to do to limit this risk?

The answer is almost a cliché. We need to finish more pigs and process more pork here at home.

The opening paragraph of Manitoba’s recent Economic Development Strategy states that “In the face of economic uncertainty driven by tariffs, it’s especially important for Manitoba to have a plan to develop our economy in a way that takes our future into our own hands, and also invests in Manitoba businesses, producers, workers, and families.”

Manitoba Pork believes that hog farmers, pork processors, and supporting stakeholders can significantly contribute to this objective if the hurdles to growth can be overcome.

Manitoba Pork also wholeheartedly agrees with the provincial government’s commitment “to fostering a growing and competitive agriculture and agri-food industry as a key driver of the provincial economy.”

How do we turn this aspiration into reality?

With the right conditions in place, the range of investment in plant and barn expansions in Manitoba could be significantly more than $1.5 billion.

With a new hog finishing site costing about $15 million, the ability of producers to access long-term, stable and affordable financing is a significant barrier to accomplishing the goal of growing our capacity.

Announcements have been made about the development of capital funds.

For example, Farm Credit Canada recently announced a $5 billion fund to be created in conjunction with private sector investors.

The federal spring economic update revealed the creation of a $25 billion sovereign wealth fund.

These announcements are all well and good but will not unleash the growth waiting to happen if capital remains unavailable to farmers.

Governments need to move beyond the catch phrases. Industry stakeholders need to be brought to the table to ensure the policies are in place to deliver capital to the farm gate.

Investment to increase hog finishing and pork processing in Manitoba will not only reduce the reliance on U.S. markets, but it will also create jobs in rural and urban areas, open up additional local opportunities for other sectors of the agricultural economy, such as feed producers, and increase the resilience of our rural communities in uncertain markets.

Canada has many of the advantages needed to succeed, including a strong reputation as a reliable high-quality supplier of food, abundant resources and proximity to major markets.

What has been missing is not potential. It has been urgency and follow through.

Cam Dahl is general manager of Manitoba Pork.

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

After a sharp dip and recovery over the past two trading sessions, ICE canola futures are slipping lower this morning…down mostly $3/tonne currently.

Chicago soybean futures are dipping 3 cents/bu lower this morning, with soymeal slightly higher and bean oil lower. CBOT corn futures are down 2 to 4 cents right now.

US wheat markets are also falling this morning… Minnie spring wheat down 3 to 5 cents, HRW losing 6 to 9 cents and SRW wheat dropping 7 to 10 cents.

Solid losses in the crude oil market are helping to pressure US grain markets so far this week. Energy markets have moved off daily highs on Tuesday amid mixed signals on progress toward a peace deal between the US and Iran.

Growing weather in the Corn Belt also leans price-bearish for corn and beans, with no threatening conditions at present.

With most acres in the ground, US corn and soybean planting is entering the late stages nationwide. The USDA said 86% of US corn had been planted as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 83%. Sixty-percent of the crop has emerged, up from 39% the previous week. US soybeans are 79% planted, ahead of 68% on average, with 49% of the crop emerged.

US winter wheat conditions are reported at only 26% good to excellent, down a percentage point from the previous week, down considerably from the 50% that was reported this time last year…and the lowest for this time of year in records dating to 1986. The crop was rated 44% poor to very poor as of Sunday, compared to just 19% a year earlier. The stressed crop conditions reflect the impact of drought in the Plains, the main US winter wheat region. Approximately 70% of the US winter wheat crop is in an area experiencing drought, the government said last week, compared to 21% a year ago.

The US spring wheat crop was 86% planted, ahead of the average pace of 79%, and 56% of the crop has emerged.

Latest on US-Iran war

– Oil dips as US sees progress in Iran deal despite fresh tensions
– Israel increases attacks on Lebanon as US-Iran peace talks crawl on

The US is touting progress toward a peace deal with Iran to end the nearly three-month war, despite fresh hostilities and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. One contentious issue under discussion is Iran s $24 billion in frozen assets, with Tehran wanting half that amount released upon the signing of an agreement. Obstacles to a US-Iran pact include Tehran s reluctance to allow ships free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s desire for Iran to commit to handing over or destroying its stocks of highly enriched uranium. Those are big obstacles.

In Other News

– Manitoba seeding passes halfway mark; Still lagging… Manitoba seeding has passed the halfway mark, but it remains behind last year and the five-year average. The latest weekly crop report on Tuesday pegged province-wide seeding at 55% complete, up from 37% a week earlier but lagging both last year and the average at 85% and 68%, respectively.

Winter wheat and fall rye crops continued to advance under the warmer weather, while spring wheat seeding reached 75% complete province-wide. Progress remained slowest in the Northwest region, where only about 30% of the crop has been planted due to ongoing wet conditions. Corn planting accelerated significantly across the Southwest, Central, Eastern, and Interlake regions as producers took advantage of improved field conditions.

Canola seeding remained behind normal pace, with less than half of Manitoba s intended acres planted so far. The Central and Eastern regions were reported as the furthest advanced for canola planting. Sunflower seeding also moved ahead steadily, with most acres already seeded in the Central, Eastern, and Interlake regions.

Pulse and soybean planting made particularly strong gains over the past week. Field pea seeding is now nearly complete across the Southwest, Central, and Eastern regions, while soybean planting advanced rapidly, especially in the Central, Eastern, and Interlake areas, where producers pushed to finish seeding during favourable weather windows.

– Canada and India talk trade deal… Canada is working on a comprehensive deal with India to boost trade and investment. This comes as Indian commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal is in the midst of a three-day visit. Goyal met with Prime Minister Mark Carney in the effort to strengthen bilateral ties. Carney says a deal with India would be a game changer for Canadian businesses and workers. The two sides say they hope to conclude a deal by the end of the year.

The talks come months after Canada and India signed a multibillion-dollar Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement aimed at doubling two-way trade by 2030. India s growing economy and strategic interests make it a natural partner for Canada as it looks to diversify beyond the United States.

– Canada not in early CUSMA talks... Canada is monitoring the first phase of the Canada-US-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) negotiations between the United States and Mexico. Canada is not participating in the opening round of discussions. The structure of the talks raises concerns for Canada, particularly because decisions made during US-Mexico discussions could affect Canadian industries.

The US structured the talks. They talk to Mexico first, and talk with us second, said Barry Appleton, an international trade expert and interim director of the Balsillie Legal Advisory Centre. But they re setting the table. And we re not there when they set the table.

The auto sector is one area Canada will be watching closely. The auto discussions in Mexico could significantly impact the auto discussions for Canada, Appleton said. He added that Canada must pay close attention to developments emerging from the negotiations. We have to monitor very carefully what goes on and see where that goes.

Upcoming Canadian negotiations with the US are expected to focus on supply management, provincial economic policies and digital trade. Despite concerns about Canada s position in the talks, Appleton said the country still has leverage. I m a big believer, that we have leverage that we haven t used, he said. The key question, he added, is whether Canada is prepared to use it. Now we need to see, are we going to use the leverage that we have, or are we going to get steam-rolled over?

– French crop concerns… European weather conditions have…and continue to be…good for crop development, but dryness has accelerated in France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and parts of the UK and Germany, said World Weather Inc. The next 10 days will be dominated by warmer-than-usual weather and lighter-than-usual rainfall, with France offering the most concern due to existing dryness. Crop stress is expected during the coming week, but losses to winter, spring and summer crops are unlikely…at least initially. There will have to be some significant rain soon, though, to protect production potentials, World Weather said.

– Sulfur supply woes crimp phosphate production... Much of the focus on the global fertilizer shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has focused on nitrogen, particularly urea. But fertilizer companies have been cutting production of crucial phosphate fertilizers as a result of disruption to the shipment of sulfur through the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times noted in a weekend report. Before the war, around half of the world s sulfur trade passed through the strait. This situation around Hormuz was in the beginning a raw material problem that has turned into a fertilizer supply shock, Faris Derrij, chief executive of OCP Nutricrops, whose parent OCP Group is the world s biggest phosphate exporter, told the newspaper.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 118.02 points on Tuesday to settle at 50,461.68, while the S&P 500 bumped up 45.65 points to 7,519.12. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index shed 177 points yesterday to close at 34,654.

Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 102 points. European stock markets are higher this morning, while Asian markets were mixed this morning. TSX futures are trending slightly weaker right now.

Global stock markets are mixed to generally rising this morning as they look for signs of whether a shaky truce between the United States and Iran will be extended.

In Canada, bank earnings season kicks off with results from Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada. As Stefanie Marotta reports, Canada s biggest banks are set to post a round of resilient profits, bucking economic uncertainty and looming trade pressure ahead of talks to renew the CUSMA.

The rally in US stocks remains linked to optimism around artificial intelligence, lower crude oil prices and easing bond yields…spurring traders to grow increasingly bullish. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to rise after the relentless advance in chipmakers fueled both gauges to another round of record highs this week.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.106 at 98.995. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.36 US cents.

July crude oil futures are plunging down $4.43 at US $89.46/barrel. Oil prices are dropping this morning despite renewed hostilities setting back efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. There is no deal to end war in the Middle East, yet traders continue to believe White House declarations that an agreement is close at hand.

Meanwhile, Russia is considering limiting exports of diesel and jet fuel, Bloomberg reported, citing a report by Interfax, as refinery run rates fall to multi-year lows amid Ukraine s escalating attacks. Oil companies were advised to curb sales of oil products to foreign markets following a Tuesday meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the domestic fuel market, the Russian news service reported, citing several people familiar with the situation. One of the people said that the decision to ban exports of diesel and jet fuel is at an advanced stage, but the date for the ban hasn t yet been set, according to Interfax. If implemented, the ban will add pressure to global oil-product prices as Russia is a key exporter of diesel, selling roughly 40% of its produced fuel to foreign markets, said the Bloomberg report.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are pressing mostly 3 cents/bu lower this morning. On Tuesday, bean futures posted fractional losses in some deferred contracts, with the front months were down as much as 10.5 cents. Soymeal futures are very narrowly mixed to less than $1/ton higher this morning after posting $1 to $3/ton losses on Tuesday. Soyoil futures are down 33 to 54 points right now on the energy market sell-off after pushing 35 to 47 points higher yesterday.

US soy complex futures generally are trending lower off their May highs.

Tuesday s export inspections report showed US soybean export shipments of 571,620 tonnes for the week ended May 21. That was more than double the same week last year and slightly above the previous week. The US marketing year total is now 35.135 MMT of US beans shipped since September 1, which is 20.8% below the same period last year.

The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed the US soybean crop at 79% planted by May 24, still well above the 68% average pace for this time of year. Emergence was at 49% vs 40% on average. Condition ratings will start being reported next week. There s been plenty of precipitation recently across much of the US Midwest and enough to possibly alleviate some drought conditions.

Argentina s soy harvest is now about 75% complete, and the country has increased its yield expectations. That, combined with an expected record large soybean crop out of Brazil does add some pressure on the global markets.

Chicago corn futures are down 2 to 4 cents/bu this morning. Continued weakness in crude oil is a pressure factor, down another $4/barrel this morning. The corn market was under pressure across the board on Tuesday with contracts losing 1 to 5 cents at the close.

Export inspections data showed 1.582 MMT of US corn shipped in the week ended on May 21. That was up 11.43% from last week and 13.01% higher than the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 60.18 MMT since Sept 1, which is up 28.03% yr/yr.

USDA weekly Crop Progress data showed the US corn crop at 86% planted as of Sunday, which was 3% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 83%. The crop was also 60% emerged, which is 2 percentage points faster than normal. Condition ratings will start being reported next week. There has been ample precipitation in the last week, and US Corn Belt soil moistures are solid, especially in eastern areas.

The corn harvest in Argentina is about two-thirds complete, and record production is expected. Traders are also watching second crop corn development weather in Brazil.

US wheat markets are sinking this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down 3 to 5 cents, HRW off 6 to 9 cents and SRW wheat losing 7 to 10 cents. Continued weakness in energy markets is a pressure factor for wheat, and all grain/oilseed markets. The US wheat complex posted mixed trade on Wednesday, with the winter wheats facing some weakness, though spring wheat finished a penny to 4 cents in the green.

USDA inspection data reported US wheat export shipments at 368,455 tonnes for the week ended May 21. That was 55.89% above the week prior but down 34.55% below the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 23.48 MMT since June 1, 2025, which is now 10.17% above the same period last year.

USDA Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 89% planted, 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace of 79%. Emergence was pegged at 56%. The US winter wheat crop was at 78% headed, which was 8 percentage points head of normal. Condition ratings were down 1% to only 26% good/excellent. 44% of the crop was rated poor to very poor…up 1 percentage point from the previous week.

Traders are monitoring precipitation in the central and Plains regions of the US. While the moisture is welcome, it s likely to do little for this year s hard red winter crop.

US wheat prices continue to be well above its global competitors, making it a tough buy on the world market. Globally, new crop planting could be limited by high input costs, including Argentina, Australia, and Canada.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended higher on Tuesday, supported in part by a rebound in crude oil prices after fresh US strikes in southern Iran renewed concerns about instability in the Middle East.

Stronger energy markets provided support to the vegetable oil sector and biofuel-linked commodities, helping to boost canola despite weakness yesterday in Chicago soybean futures. Soyoil closed higher, along with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.

July canola rallied $14.50 higher yesterday to $750.70/tonne, and November was $13.70 higher at $760.30…both regaining all of Monday s sell-off.

For today… canola futures are trading $3/tonne lower this morning…following the lead of deteriorating US soy complex pricing conditions. EU rapeseed futures are also weaker this morning. The Malaysian palm oil market is closed today for a holiday.

Optimism over a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is dragging energy markets down despite ample evidence to the contrary.

Widely variable conditions across Western Canada raises concerns…from a slow start to planting this year on cooler, and in some cases wetter initial conditions…to now a rapid swing to scorching summer conditions this week. The hot and dry will be welcome in areas needing to get caught up on seeding, but in the dry areas of Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan, it will be anything but. That helped inspire a strong rebound rally in canola on Tuesday that completely recovered Monday’s significant losses.

Where the canola market goes from here is up for debate…but highs for the immediate season tends to come anytime around now for the major grain and oilseed markets…with US markets (soy, corn, wheat) already pulling back from their spring highs now.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

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“Especially in Western Canada, we had a lot of push back from the producer level, and a lot of push back was generated from a social media campaign, and a lot of misinformation, incomplete information and a lack of understanding for the primary producers of what traceability was about,” Rick Wright, chief executive officer of of the Livestock Markets Association of Canada, said during the organization’s recent convention.

Related story in this issue: Live auctions not going anywhere: sector leader

“We, as LMAC, had talked to a number of the organizations the previous 18 months, including CFIA, expressing our disappointment and our concerns about the lack of an educational program for the primary producers, so they knew what was coming.”

Why it Matters:The level of acceptance of traceability in the livestock industry will set the tone in international trade going forward.

The LMAC passed amendments to its stance on traceability, focusing on ensuring that any future CFIA changes do not affect the speed of commerce and market neutrality and that the costs don’t outweigh the benefits.

As well, the organization says it does not support mandatory scanning and reporting of individual animals at auction markets, buying stations and assembly yards. It supports the use of group-movement documents and group-movement reporting.

Andrea Brockleback, CEO of the Canadian Cattle Association, said cattle producers export 50 per cent of their beef and live cattle production, and traceability is important to them.

“If our market closes, we cannot eat our way (domestically) through this. Many of you remember the auction markets around BSE situations that happened,” she said.

Frustrations have boiled over as western producers argue that traceability standards are not uniform across the country.

Brockleback said Western Canada has systems in place that don’t exist further east and is now being asked to make more changes.

“We have issues, whether it’s registering our operation or birth dates or whatever else. Where industry is focusing, is understanding we need to address those issues before we ask for more from our producers, and CFIA heard this loud and clear,” said Brockleback.

“When I talk to CFIA on this is, they have never paused something like this before. That’s never occurred, and it occurred, and now they’re carefully considering how to move forward, and they’re doing it in partnership with industry.”

Dr. Kee Jim, a leader in the cattle feeding industry, told the LMAC convention that he has read the proposed changes a half dozen times and has a hard time grasping why there is resistance to the minor changes at the cow-calf and backgrounder levels.

He said the current system takes too long to address possible disease outbreaks.

Given the Canadian industry’s reliance on exports, Jim said traceability should not be taken lightly.

“Even if it’s not a direct ask of our places that we’re exporting cattle to right now, it doesn’t have to be direct. It’s essentially a requirement because if we can’t deal with the problem effectively, then our market access goes away,” he said.

“If we plan on opening up some of the new markets, such as the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, they have increased requirements for traceability. Our current system is not going to cut it for new markets. Remember, some of those people have money to buy our high quality, grain-fed product.”

Jim said it may be possible to tweak the proposed standards, but he encouraged producers to support the changes with some amendments.

“The ask is not overwhelming at all. I’m going to argue you’re going to spend more money buying beer for your branding than you are complying to the proposed traceability amendments on a per-head basis. We need to make sure here that we maintain our current market access and we’re in a position to respond quickly to any foreign animal disease incursions, to get the border open as quickly as possible,” he said.

“The proposed enhancements and the proposed changes are buying you time. The decreased time to report movements and things like that are related to the speed of which we need to respond to a problem.”

He said he is convinced that resistance to the changes is coming more from social media pressure than from those who have meaningful skin in the game.

There was similar hesitation in 1998 when traceability standards were voluntary and then when they became mandatory in 2002, he added.

Jim said there was dissension in the industry then, both at the provincial and national level.

“But it got through the system, and was approved, and everyone lived. It didn’t turn out to be all that bad. So, I think the producer organizations need to come up and make sure they get these changes done, and they approve them.”

“It’s going to be a tight summer with respect to supply,” said Holly Alfano, chief executive officer of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA).

“There may be some shortages.”

She has spoken to two independent analysts who think the supply crunch will come to a head in late June or early July as stored inventories of lubricants dwindle.

“It’s hard to say how bad it’s going to be. I don’t know,” said Alfano.

“We’re just watching it really closely.”

Nigel Buffone, senior director of crop protection with FBN Canada, said the company that supplies FBN’s lubrication products tells him they are getting 70 to 80 per cent of their normal supply of feedstocks.

The firm initially told FBN lubrication product prices wouldn’t be rising because it had feedstock supplies it had purchased before conflict broke out in the Middle East.

But it has since consumed those pre-war supplies, and prices have now increased 10 to 35 per cent depending on the lubrication product.

Why it Matters: Farmers use a lot of motor oils and other lubricants.

Some lubrication products are disappearing from the market. Toyota and its supplier, ExxonMobil, recently announced a shortage of ultra-thin OW-8 and OW-16 synthetic motor oils.

Toyota issued an internal bulletin to North American dealers announcing temporary manufacturer-approved substitutes.

Buffone said lubrication products are critical inputs for farm operations. A tractor needs its hydraulic fluids changed two or three times a year.

“That’s not negotiable,” he said.

“That’s just the reality of running your tractor.”

Some crop inputs can be substituted or even skipped some years. That is not the case with lubrication products.

“When you think of farming, the need for these products is inelastic,” said Buffone.

He agrees that the situation is likely to get tighter as summer progresses, so farmers who need lubrication products might want to buy sooner rather than later.

“I don’t think you will regret making that purchase immediately,” he said.

FBN is in communication with its supplier on a weekly basis and adjusts its prices and delivery times accordingly.

FBN has two new warehouses for distributing its products. The grand opening of its Brandon, Man. facility is June 11, and the one in Grande Prairie, Alta. is June 17.

Alfano said the supply issues for lubricants can be traced back to base oils, which comprise roughly 75 per cent of crankcase lubricants and as much as 98 per cent of industrial formulations such as turbine and hydraulic oils.

The most popular base oil used in lubricants is Group III. Three Persian Gulf producers supply 44 per cent of the Group III oil used in the United States.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off supplies from Pearl GTL in Qatar, ADNOC in the United Arab Emirates and BAPCO in Bahrain.

In addition, all three facilities have been damaged in the Middle East conflict. Shell’s Pearl GTL plant sustained the most significant damage, and it happens to be the world’s biggest producer of Group III.

“It’s going to be offline for over a year,” said Alfano.

“That’s going to constrain supplies.”

ILMA suspects that the U.S. will run out of Mideast Gulf-origin Group III by June.

South Korea would usually be counted on to fill the gap. It typically supplies about 30 per cent of Group III to the U.S.

But it relies on Middle East crude as a feedstock, and it is in limited supply due to the war in Iran.

Korean refiners are rerouting those limited crude supplies to Asian diesel and jet fuel manufacturers who pay more than base oil manufacturers.

Blenders usually shift to Group II base oils when Group III is in short supply. But with diesel margins at 40-year highs, refiners are rerouting Group II oils to the fuel sector.

The upshot is that between the Middle East and South Korea, 74 per cent of U.S. Group III imports are “under direct stress” and the Group II safety valve is effectively closed.

“The result is unprecedented upward pressure on lubricant costs, and conditions are not expected to fully resolve until at least mid-2027,” ILMA stated in a recent bulletin.

Agriculture officials in the U.S. have floated the idea of restricting exports and creating a fertilizer strategic reserve.

Related story: Can Canada produce its own supply of phosphate for fertilizer?

Josh Linville, vice-president of fertilizer with StoneX, thinks that is an ill-conceived idea.

“Not only do I think it’s short-sighted, I think it kind of lacks a little bit of understanding of how fertilizer works,” he said.

Oil markets have strategic reserves, but oil can be stored a long time.

“When it comes to fertilizer, even under the best conditions it doesn’t last that long,” he said.

Canada does not produce any phosphate fertilizer. Farmers in this country are heavily reliant on imports from the U.S.

Canada imported an average of 1.46 million tonnes of monoammonium phosphate (MAP), 92,027 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 518,232 tonnes of ammonium phosphate annually during the 2018 to 2023 period, according to Fertilizer Canada.

Almost all of that came from the U.S.

But U.S. supplies are tight these days, which has prompted some farm groups in that country to question why U.S. fertilizer companies are shipping product to Canada.

Why it Matters: Canadian growers are big users of phosphate fertilizer.

Phosphate supplies were tight even before Mosaic announced it was slashing production rates in half at its Bartow, Florida and Faustina, Louisiana plants due to soaring sulfur prices, which is a key feedstock ingredient.

MAP and DAP prices are up 15 per cent over year-ago levels in the U.S. market while nitrogen fertilizer prices have jumped a lot more than that, according to DTN.

John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis with the American Farm Bureau Federation, thinks America should strongly consider restricting its fertilizer exports.

“In times like today, you start to wonder — do we need strategic reserves?” he recently told delegates attending the 2026 Agri-Pulse Ag & Food Policy Summit in Washington, D.C.

The U.S. exports 10 to 12 million tonnes of all types of fertilizer per year with much of that heading north. Canada accounted for 38 per cent of all U.S. fertilizer exports in 2025.

Newton said he and bureau president Zippy Duvall have met with John Boozman, chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, where they mentioned the idea of establishing a strategic fertilizer reserve.

Linville thinks if there was any blocking of exports it wouldn’t be with Canada because the fertilizer market in this part of the world is North American in scope.

“If we were to cut off our phosphate shipments to Canada, I think there would be a massive uproar and I don’t think that’s a fight that either side wants,” he said.

In the meantime, U.S. farmers are crossing their fingers that there may be some phosphate supply relief on the horizon.

More than 50 state agriculture groups and eight national organizations recently sent a letter to the International Trade Commission (ITC) urging the agency to revoke countervailing duties on imports of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia.

The ITC imposed the duties in 2021 at the behest of The Mosaic Company, a petition that was later supported by J.R. Simplot.

The companies complained the U.S. market was being flooded with unfairly subsidized foreign product.

The ITC agreed and assessed duties that initially ranged from nine to 47 per cent, although those rates have changed over time.

Those duties are now being examined by the ITC under a sunset review process. The farm organizations are asking the commission to revoke the duties.

“Maintaining the phosphate fertilizer (countervailing duties) will allow a small set of powerful corporations to continue to limit supply options for farmers,” said their letter.

“This has already prevented farmers from accessing the tools that meet their crop production needs and resulted in lower yields and negative economic impacts.”

The American Soybean Association estimates the duties have increased the cost of phosphate fertilizer for U.S. farmers by US$6.9 billion over the past five years.

The farm groups said the U.S. does not have sufficient domestic phosphate production to meet agricultural demand on its own. Farmers must rely on imports to fill the gap in supply.

“When import duties substantially restrict that access, supply tightens and prices rise,” they stated in the letter to the ITC.

“Eliminating these duties would help restore balance to fertilizer markets by providing immediate relief to growers facing elevated input costs and a lack of availability.”

The sunset review is expected to progress over the next year with a final decision expected in the spring of 2027.

Linville said farmers are mistaken if they believe that eliminating the duties will lead to a flood of imports from Russia and Morocco, pushing prices back down to 2020 levels.

He said global phosphate supplies are “insanely tight” and that prices for the product in New Orleans are among the cheapest in the world today.

“If you’ve got a limited number of tonnes to ship to the world, why would you ship it to the cheapest spot in the world?” asked Linville.

And with recent discoveries in Norway, there could be plenty of phosphate for hundreds of years.

Related story: U.S. phosphate export restrictions unlikely

These facts aren’t all that comforting for Canadian farmers, who have paid sky high prices for phosphate fertilizer since 2022.

In Western Canada, the price of Monoammonium Phosphate 11-52-0 fertilizer has been stuck around $1,200 per tonne for four years, says Manitoba Agriculture data.

Why it Matters: Canadian farmers rely on phosphate imports from the U.S., but could Canada produce its own supply?

The good news about high prices is that capitalism works. If there’s an opportunity to make money, private companies will look for new sources of phosphate.

In 2023 a Norwegian company, Norge Mining, announced the discovery of a massive deposit of phosphate rock.

Norge Mining claims the site contains 70 billion tonnes of phosphate.

Putting that in perspective, the U.S. Geological Service (USGS) has pegged global reserves of phosphate rock at 74 billion tons.

About 67 percent of reserves are in Morocco, which is sometimes called the Saudi Arabia of phosphate.

A functioning mine in Norway is years away, but the discovery should increase phosphate supplies in future decades.

Igneous versus sedimentary

More than 95 percent of the world’s proven reserves of phosphate are in sedimentary rock and the remainder is in igneous rock, says the USGS.

The Norwegian finding was in igneous rock and there could be substantial resources of phosphate, elsewhere on the planet.

“Significant igneous resources” are found in Brazil, Canada, Finland, Russia and South Africa, says the USGS.

“Igneous phosphate rocks tend to have a higher P2O5 (phosphate) content and are processed somewhat differently than sedimentary rock. The processing cost is similar to sedimentary rock,” said Stephen Jasinski, a phosphate rock and potash specialist with the USGS.

Within Canada, the potential igneous deposits are concentrated in Quebec.

First Phosphate, a Canadian mining firm, has been drilling and testing its resources in in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, Quebec.

However, the main market for its phosphate will be the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery industry, says First Phosphate.

On the other side of the country, a firm called Canadian Phosphate has been exploring a deposit around Fernie, B.C.

It is also drilling and exploring at another site, near Tumbler Ridge, B.C., which it calls the Wapiti Project.

“Wapiti is one of only two known sedimentary phosphate projects in Canada. Both projects are held by Canadian Phosphate,” said company CEO Daniel Gleeson.

“Wapiti forms a cornerstone of our strategic vision to establish a secure, domestic supply of sedimentary phosphate in North America, an issue which has been brought further to the forefront in recent months due to the conflict in the Middle East.”

In the longer term, Canada may have its own supplies of phosphate fertilizer. But converting a deposit into an operational mine can take years and years and years.

Looking globally, potential sources of phosphate (unproven deposits) should supply the demand for fertilizer and other uses for many years.

“World resources of phosphate rock are more than 300 billion tons. There are no imminent shortages of phosphate rock,” says the USGS.

In a typical year, mining companies extract about 230 million tonnes of phosphate. That sounds like a lot.

But at the current rate of production, it would take 1,300 years to exhaust global resources.

Jordon Lynch and Chansi Bourke won the provincial competition at Canada’s Farm Show in Regina.

The brother and sister, joined more recently by another brother, are the fourth generation to grain farm near Osage, Sask. They grow cereals, oilseeds and lentils through Lynch Farm Partnership.

The farm was established in 1907. Lynch said the family was historically small, so there wasn’t a need to expand much. But their parents, Les and Deanne, bought lease land and built the business big enough to pass down to their children.

“To give you a picture of that growth, when I came back to the farm in 2012 we were running 5,000 acres with one seeder and two combines. Heading into 2026 we’ve successfully grown to 15,000 acres, operating three seeders and four combines,” he said.

About half the land base is owned and half rented and they rely on two full-time and three seasonal staff to help.

Why it Matters: Canada’s Outstanding Young Farmers program recognizes regional winners between 18 and 39 every year. They must demonstrate excellence in the profession and earn at least two-thirds of their income from the farm.

Lynch obtained a diploma in ag business from the University of Saskatchewan in 2010, and then spent 10 months in New Zealand on a grain and sheep farm. In 2012, he and his parents formed the Lynch Farm Partnership.

Bourke is an agronomist for Top Notch Farm Supply in Fillmore and joined the LFP in 2018.

Their brother Keegan is a journeyman plumber who worked for LFP since 2009 and officially joined in 2023.

Lynch, with wife Dakota and daughters Amelia and London; and Bourke, husband Patrick and daughters Hudson, Ivy and Sage, all live in Osage. Keegan, wife Shelbi, and daughters Georgia and Macklyn live in Sedley.

Bourke said teamwork and relationships are the farm’s foundation.

“It starts with our efforts to improve ourselves as owners. We are driven and pushing ourselves to learn and evolve, personally and as a team,” she said.

For example, she recently completed her Certified Crop Advisor requirements and both she and Patrick just attended Learn to Lead from SaskOilseeds. They all stay up to date through webinars and field days.

Keeping their families at the forefront is critical, she said. The expansion to their land base has put pressure on their work-life balance.

“How do we remain a viable farm and maintain that family farm feeling that brought us back to our roots in the first place?” Bourke said.

The family uses a three-part approach to management and succession: family; business development; and human resources.

Their parents researched succession management before their children ever came back to the farm and talked to the siblings early on about how they could return. The partners have regular governance meetings, communication management plans and organizational charts defining roles and responsibilities. And, they’ve worked with succession management consultants to ensure the goals are clear and communicated.

Lynch said they can’t control weather or markets but the plan provides financial stability and security.

“It’s how we ensure our farming values and successful practices actually make it to the next generation,” he said.

They have standard operating procedures, regular employee reviews and on-farm safety workshops.

He said they aren’t afraid to admit they don’t know everything and rely on experts to help in those areas.

Sustainability is another focus. The partnership takes marginal land out of production and seeds it down to salt-tolerant grass. They use deep ripping to break up hard pan and improve water infiltration to plant roots. Seed and soil testing are used extensively, and they have run farm trials on canola varieties and biologicals.

In addition, all are involved in their communities on organizations and boards; Lynch is a medical first responder.

The other nominees in 2026 were also siblings. Brothers Cashe and Beau Stevenson and their families work with their father and grandfather at Hi-Lite Feedlot west of Melfort. Since 2020 they expanded capacity and modernized the facilities. It has a capacity of 4,500 feeder cattle and they use part of it to winter and calve 500 cows.

The Stevensons also farm 5,000 acres.

The national OYF event is scheduled for Nov. 25-29 in Vancouver.