Agriculture minister David Marit said the review will include both stakeholder and public consultations. It comes after an initial review by an appointed advisory committee.

That committee found no evidence of illegal land ownership, he said.

“However, they did point to potential opportunities to further strengthen the legislation and the regulatory framework. Based on their feedback, we will undertake an extensive review of ownership verification, penalty and enforcement tools, as well as reporting obligations and oversight of permanent residents,” he told a news conference.

The committee did not look at other parts of the act, such as foreclosure processes and home quarter protection, but the comprehensive review will.

He noted the last significant review was done 10 years ago.

Advisory committee chair Ken McDonald said members met with industry stakeholders who raised concerns about foreign farmland ownership several times.

“No names or evidence was brought forward to support this is actually happening,” he said.

McDonald said the Farm Land Security Board is doing a good job overseeing ownership, but some legislative and regulatory updates could streamline the process. He said stronger penalties are needed to reflect increased land values.

Board general manager Kim McLean said the home quarter and foreclosure provisions of the Farm Security Act have only seen small amendments since 1988, and things have changed since then. For example, corporate structures didn’t exist much then, she said.

Amendments could be introduced by spring 2027.

The Bad: July canola continues to trade in a channel that started last Wednesday with the contract trading in a raged that centers around the C$716 per tonne level. The bad news is that the July contract hasn’t tried to fill the gap created last Wednesday. The bad news is that canola closed down despite trading higher early in the session. The contract was pressured by lower soybean and soybean oil futures.

The Ugly: Oilseed markets closed lower today due to a drop in crude oil futures. The June contract traded down by US$4.37 per barrel to trade at US$88.59 per barrel. Although this is good news for users of crude oil, the oilseed markets were under pressure today. This pushed values lower across the oilseed complex. What was driving oil prices lower. It was on the news that the talks with Iran continue despite the recent escalation of hostilities. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S. Navy seems to be “bullish” for crude oil but values have dropped anyway. This means that the crude oil market is not following any fundamentals and is all about money flows. These types of markets turn ugly in a hurry.

I realized when I attended the Farming Smarter conference earlier this year that it was the second time I had done so.

February marked my one-year anniversary working for Glacier FarmMedia, writing primarily for The Western Producer and Alberta Farmer Express.

My name tag was handed to me without asking me my name, considering I’m now a a familiar face at Farming Smarter’s events, including their field days.

A producer shook my hand in the food line at the recent Holistic Management Conference in Taber, Alta., who I had met at an earlier presentation in Bow Island, Alta.

“I read your stuff all the time,” he said with a smile, which made me smile as well, still wondering if I belong in the highly specialized field of agriculture.

I’ve been covering for months the grazing lease controversy in the Municipal District of Taber, and a resident thanked me for that coverage. He was happy to see the region making its mark in the pages of The Western Producer once again in the crucial agriculture corridor.

It has been a cumulative effect these past few months, where I finally feel I have my feet under me in a very understanding industry as I continue to build my repertoire with my list of contacts.

Previous community journalism experience, where you are covering all beats, scratched just the surface of the deep waters that nourish the knowledge of agriculture right down the supply chain.

The learning curve has been steep, but southern Alberta producers and organizations have been too numerous for me to thank in easing me in, helping me with sources for story generation and just giving that warm welcome rural communities I’ve covered in the past always do.

There has been a common trend I have noticed while travelling the southern Alberta landscape to attend conferences, interview producers and cover breaking stories.

I have attempted to tell the industry’s story from the farmer to the value-added processing chain, keeping in mind both the politicians and suburbanites who thinks food comes from their grocery store as well as rural audiences.

I will continue to endeavour to the best of my ability to tell the science, economy and life stories of agriculture that I hope appeals to rural and urban readers alike, showcasing its immense impact in our own backyard and the world.

Land prices on the Prairies continue to see strong growth despite relatively high interest rates, and the sticker price for large tractors and combines now reach into seven figures.

Getting tradespeople out to the farm to work on buildings or equipment is out of reach for many farmers, and the record price of diesel will affect the scope and number of farm-improvement projects producers take on this summer.

But even with all these inflationary pressures, locking a farm into major investments during uncertain times is a difficult decision to make.

Every rural community has examples of local farms that stopped operating due to poorly timed spending decisions.

In times like these, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some operators liquidate lower quality holdings to focus their resources on land parcels that offer a higher potential for return on investment.

The investment decisions that are easy for farmers to make offer significant and relatively quick returns. A well-used example of this is autosteer, which immediately and significantly reduced seed and fertilizer costs.

Investments in time and money that have a longer pay-back period are harder to justify, and many farmers seem to have decided technologies and processes that enable precision agriculture, including variable rate (VR) applications, falls into this category.

For instance, Fertilizer Canada published its 2024 Fertilizer Use Survey in March, and it suggests low levels of soil testing is leading to the over-application of nitrogen in Canadian crop production.

The organization said only 34 per cent of canola acres met the right rate criteria of the 4R fertilization approach in 2024.

Setting rates according to field zones that have different fertilization needs is a proven approach to improve fertilizer efficiency, but it does take more effort and investments compared to using blanket rates.

For some farmers, reducing costs through improving the logistics of covering many acres has shown a better return compared to investments into precision agriculture.

Broadcasting urea is a good example. It quickly gets the nitrogen down, but unless the timing and weather line up, this approach tends to violate a few of the sacred 4R rules of fertilizer applications, even when enhanced efficiency products are used.

Elevated fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran has changed the return on investment calculation for equipment and technologies that enable precision agriculture.

The disruption to the fertilizer trade caused by Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could persist for many months, and there are already calls within multiple fertilizer producing countries, including the United States, to enact export restrictions.

Increasing fertilizer efficiency has moved further into farms’ risk management territory because it is unclear how long the fertilizer industry will be in flux or how high prices could rise.

When it comes time for producers to update their drill or sprayer, spending the extra money on platforms that can help reduce the nitrogen bill through precision and staged applications, without reducing yields, has a shorter return on investment then it used to.

It also helps that digital products that enable VR applications are more user friendly than they used to be, operating in the background with very little fiddling required by farmers.

Higher fertilizer prices also make it worthwhile for more intensive management, including taking unproductive acres out of crop production.

Creating another job of mowing or baling areas seeded to a forage because they never seem to produce a crop is a hard sell for most growers, but so is a double-digit percentage increase to the fertilizer bill that some farms will see this spring.

Any strategy that helps farms improve their fertilizer and land use is worth another look this spring because the cost of farming is not what it used to be.

The United Nations is one of the groups issuing the dire warnings.

“The clock is ticking for global food systems as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to choke off the flow of fuel and crucial fertilizers needed for the next planting season,” the UN stated in a recent article on its website.

That raises the risk of higher food prices and a new wave of inflation, it said.

Why it Matters: Reduced global production would drive up grain prices.

UN chief economist Maximo Torero said 30 to 35 per cent of the world’s crude oil, 20 per cent of its natural gas and 20 to 30 per cent of its fertilizer are not moving out of the Middle East.

Much of the cargo that left the Persian Gulf before the war has already reached its destination, and the world is now entering a phase where supplies could start to tighten.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index for March showed only modest increases.

“We have enough supplies and good stocks which allow the agri-food system to be resilient to this shock,” said Torero.

However, he warned that the buffer may be short-lived as farmers around the world reduce input use or shift crops.

That would result in lower yields, which will drive up food prices later in the year and into next year, he said.

Higher oil prices are also diverting crops such as corn, sugar and oilseeds toward biofuel production.

“If we have rising demand because biofuels start to consume more, and lower supply because we have less inputs, food prices will go up,” said David Laborde, director of the agrifood economics division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, agreed that the war is having a profound impact on fertilizer prices, but not to the degree of when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Fertilizer manufacturers are raising prices to ration demand.

“The lower income countries are going to have the most difficulty affording fertilizer,” he said during a recent webinar.

Suderman believes wheat will be the crop most affected by rising input costs because it has the narrowest profit margins of the major crops.

However, fertilizer was already in position for farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, so he doubts there will be a big profitability impact for those growers.

“What we’ll be watching is going to be Argentina wheat areas and Australian wheat areas,” he said.

However, Suderman does not believe a food crisis is looming because of ample supplies of all the major crops.

For instance, ending stocks of wheat for the major exporters in 2025-26 is forecast to be at the highest level since 2010 with a stocks-to-use ratio of nearly 30 per cent.

“It is pretty significant supplies,” he said.

The UN worries that those global stocks could dwindle if the emerging El Nino weather pattern takes a toll on production in key production regions like Australia.

It is also concerned that rising input costs and uncertainty are squeezing farmer margins.

“When you push them too much, you may bring them into bankruptcy,” said Laborde.

“And then it means there will be a supply problem for a longer period.”

The FAO said a full-blown food crisis is not inevitable, but the window to prevent one is rapidly closing.

It is encouraging governments around the world to avoid trade restrictions, support vulnerable households through social programs and ensure liquidity for farmers through credit lines and import financing.

The survey was conducted at the beginning of the month, which was after the war in the Middle East began at the end of February.

Given that planting is just around the corner in the corn belt, most farmers were likely very aware of higher fertilizer prices and their impact on crop profitability.

Farmers have decided to plant fewer acres to crops this year.

Total area planted in 2026 is forecast to reach 310 million acres, which is down from the 312 million acres planted last year.

This is one of the ways that farmers are coping with the higher input costs this year. They are also devoting a larger area to crops that require less nitrogen fertilizer.

Soybean area is forecast to increase by four per cent to 84.7 million acres. The total area increase was 2.85 million acres, with the bulk of the gains reported in the corn belt and Delta states.

Corn area was obviously replaced in the corn belt, while the Delta (Mississippi) increase came from lower cotton area.

Canola area in the northern Plains increased by 347,000 acres to 2.69 million acres despite high fertilizer costs. This mirrors the increase in canola area expected in Canada.

Corn area dropped by 3.4 million acres (three per cent) from last year to 95.4 million acres. Lower intended corn area came mostly from the corn belt states, but also from reductions in the northern Plains and Delta region.

The U.S. wheat area dropped to the smallest since 1919 at 43.8 million acres.

The area drop was caused by a two per cent reduction in winter wheat area, while spring wheat dropped by six per cent from last year.

The drop in winter wheat was down from the first survey done in December. Winter wheat is expected to fall to 32.4 million acres. Hard red winter wheat area was pegged at 23.1 million acres.

The drop in spring wheat area was expected due to the lower prices and higher input costs.

The largest spring wheat area reduction occurred in Minnesota (down 10 per cent) and North Dakota (down 13 per cent), while Montana’s area remained unchanged from last year. South Dakota reported a drop of only four per cent.

The hard red spring wheat area is currently the lowest since records on the class began in the 1980s.

Durum acres are down by 11 per cent to 1.95 million acres in the report. This area is lower than the past two years, but still above the 2019-23 period.

The drop in durum acreage was not unexpected because prices have dropped by US50 to 75 cents per bushel from last year.

The drop in spring wheat and durum in the United States mirrors the situation in Canada. The Statistics Canada report in early March also pointed to a decline in both wheat and durum area this year.

The one difference between the two countries is that the total wheat area (wheat and durum) in Canada has remained relatively stable over the past 10 years, while the U.S. continues to experience a decline in area.

This trend is expected to continue in the coming years as U.S. wheat area drops while Canadian area remains relatively stable.

Federal finance minister François-Philippe Champagne was recently in China, meeting with Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng about pork, energy and other issues.

The meeting happened as the surplus caused retail pork prices there to drop to an eight year low. Cash hog prices are down 30 per cent from last year and are at a 16-year low, according to Chinese markets information provider JCI.

Chinese pig producers are losing money hand over fist, hit by a double whammy of falling hog prices and rising costs of feed and other inputs, such as amino acids and vitamins caused by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Also, pork demand is off as consumers complain about the taste of the mass-produced pigs.

Pork is crucial to China

China has about half of all the pigs on the planet, and over the last decade, there has been massive upheavals in the industry, from African swine fever, which prompted huge culls, pork shortages and soaring imports, to a massive consolidation into giant industrial farms with multi-storey barns.

These industrial operations have now over-expanded.

Last summer, Beijing gathered the industry to demand herd trimming. The summer sow-breeding herd stood at about 40.5 million head, above the target of 39 million.

The breeding herd has fallen slightly but remains too large, creating an excess of market pigs.

Even as Beijing tried to restrict herd growth, the largest producers expanded to improve efficiencies of scale and drive smaller producers out of business.

With a surplus of domestic pork available, pork imports have fallen.

Pork imports are down

Chinese customs reports pork imports for January and February totalled 310,000 tonnes, down 19 per cent from the same period last year.

The tariff on Canadian pork means this country is particularly affected.

Agriculture Canada’s red meat data page shows Canada exported slightly less than 9,000 tonnes to China in January, down 50 per cent from the same month last year.

U.S. pork does not currently face tariffs, but its exports to China in January and February combined were down 12 per cent by tonnage.

China levies tariffs of 4.9 to 19.8 per cent on pork from the European Union. China says European pork is dumped at prices below production costs or domestic market prices.

EU pork exports to China in January fell 26 per cent to 76,267 tonnes.

I couldn’t find statistics for Brazilan exports this year.

As noted, China’s central government is trying to settle the market.

In addition to encouraging herd reduction, it is discouraging the practice of smaller producers engaging in “second fattening,” in which they buy fed hogs and feed them to gain additional weight before selling them to packers.

However, so far the actions have not had the desired effect.

Retired U.S. Department of Agriculture economist Fred Gale in his DimSums blog on Chinese rural policy in February reported that the mega hog producers are expanding as well as investing through the value chain, including grain storage, procurement, trucking and shipping.

China produces a lot of pork

The size of these mega producers is astounding.

The largest, Muyuan Foodstuff, produced almost 78 million head in 2025, up 6.4 million from the previous year.

Canada’s hog producers collectively produced only about 25.5 million.

The second largest producer is Wens at 40 million head, up 10.3 million from the previous year, and third is Twins at 26.5 million, up 8.7 million, according to the DimSums blog.

Almost the only companies to produce fewer hogs in 2025 were those generating one million head or fewer.

Lower pork prices might seem a boon for consumers, but it is part of a larger problem of deflation in China.

China might be an economic miracle, but its long run of growth is in danger.

Large sections of its economy and real estate markets are overbuilt and supply outstrips demand, leading to lower prices.

Corporate profits are down, bad debt is blooming and unemployment is rising.

It is very far from collapse, but it is troubled.

What does this mean for Canadian farmers?

It is hard to judge all the implications for Canadian farmers.

It is clear that China won’t be a big buyer of Canadian pork for the foreseeable future.

The Chinese hog herd is the biggest consumer of soybeans in the world, and soybean markets are tied to canola.

Beijing has reduced its reliance on imports of American soybeans, buying more now from Brazil.

It also tried to get hog producers to include more domestic feedstuffs.

It has had some success in getting hog producers to get more of their protein needs from fermented domestic feedstuffs.

Its overall demand for imported soybeans is unlikely to shrink in the near term, but its rate of growth is declining sharply.

Some 20 miles away, at a research center in Junction City, scientists are developing hybrid wheat seeds that promise higher, more consistent crop yields as drought becomes more common across the Plains.

Taken together, the experiments could change the future of the struggling U.S. wheat industry, which is being threatened by shifting consumer trends and the rise of lower-cost global rivals eroding America’s export dominance. The U.S. economic prospects for wheat, a crop that’s been cultivated for 10,000 years, hang in the balance.

When it comes to technology, for decades wheat has been the horse-and-buggy to its sports car brethren, corn and soybeans. And American farmers have been growing less of the crop, sometimes planting it only in rotation with other crops to preserve soil health.

However, hybrid wheat is finally becoming more widely available, and genetically modified varieties may launch in the United States within a few years. The push represents a bet that the science will arrive in time to make it profitable enough to matter for growers.

“Wheat hasn’t been, for lack of a better word, a technified crop,” said Jon Rich, Syngenta’s hybrid wheat operations head, who has spent years developing the product.

Wheat buyers have been more resistant to genetic modification, partly because of consumer skepticism, while most GM corn and soybeans are used as feed for animals.

Shrinking demand

Once the world’s top wheat exporter, the U.S. has not held that title since 2017, according to federal data. Farmers are grappling with a three-decade downtrend in per-capita flour consumption, a trend reinforced by U.S. president Donald Trump administration’s new federal dietary guidelines and the rise of gluten-free diets.

Things are trending differently in Canada, where mills produced 2.68 million tonnes of wheat flour in 2025, a 7.7 per cent increase over 2024 levels.

Wheat industry millers and scientists who gathered for an annual meeting earlier this year in Olathe, Kansas, said the new guidelines stigmatize grain-based foods, further diminishing the market.

“The fact that we are having to say ‘bread is real food,’ it’s unfortunate,” said Jane DeMarchi, president of the North American Millers’ Association.

The United States became a corn-growing behemoth in part due to an early 20th-century breakthrough that has eluded wheat: hybrid seeds, which yield more grain even under stressful conditions such as drought. Average U.S. corn yields rose from around 25 bushels an acre in the 1930s to 186.5 bu. in 2025.

‘Cracked the code’

Creating a hybrid wheat seed isn’t as simple. The seeds and plants are much smaller than corn and have more complex genetics, making hybridization efforts costly for companies to develop and sell.

However, recent scientific advances in DNA sequencing have lowered costs for breeders, triggering a boom in research and commercialization efforts. Seed and chemical companies Syngenta and Corteva are pushing forward in the U.S., projecting billion-dollar payouts — eventually.

Chuck Magro, Corteva’s chief executive officer, says the company has “cracked the code,” and that its hybrid hard red winter wheat used to make bread can increase crop yields by 20 per cent. Corteva plans to release the seed commercially in the U.S. in 2027.

Syngenta, the Swiss agrichemicals and seeds group of China’s state-owned Sinochem, has been selling hybrid spring wheat seed to farmers in the northern U.S. Plains states since 2023, reaching 12,000 to 15,000 acres in 2025. Still, that’s a fraction of the 45 million U.S. wheat acres seeded annually.

Syngenta and Corteva are also working on other hybrids, including for soft wheat used in pastries and Asian-style noodles, in coming years. However, it’s a gamble if farmers will be willing to pay for seeds that can cost twice as much as conventional offerings.

The vast majority of U.S. corn and soybeans are grown from genetically modified seeds that offer built-in herbicide tolerance and resistance to yield-robbing pests.

That is one hope for wheat, too, scientists said, and GMO technology could eventually also offer traits that boost nutrition or grain quality.

“Anything that gives our producers an advantage can improve profitability — that would be welcome,” said Allan Fritz, a longtime wheat breeder with Kansas State University.

The plants in the Manhattan, Kansas, lab have been genetically modified with a drought-resistant trait known as HB4, developed by Argentina’s Bioceres Crop Solutions, and bred to tolerate a particular herbicide not currently used on wheat. While that grain was approved for U.S. production by the USDA in 2024, none has been planted on U.S. fields.

Genetic lines of wheat vary by region, so public university researchers are testing whether the HB4 traits will function in wheat grown in the U.S. Plains.

Field trials are still at least two years away, said Brad Erker of the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation, a farmer-governed trade group that has partnered with Bioceres to commercialize HB4 in the U.S.

Selling GM wheat seed is even further off, by 2030 or 2032 at the earliest, Erker said, and will only occur if major buyers of U.S. wheat, such as Japan and Mexico, agree to allow purchases.

“That’s part of the goal with this, to make it more attractive to grow wheat,” said Erker.

“We don’t have GMO technology for our farmers in wheat, and corn and soy and sunflowers and sugarbeets and cotton all do.”

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain futures prices are modestly firmer to start the morning trade. ICE canola futures are posting gains of around $1/tonne this morning, though eroding from the overnight highs. Chicago soybean futures are 1 to 4 cents/bu higher. Bean trading remains choppy and sideways, but soymeal has been the standout performer the past few sessions and hitting near a five-month high now. Spreaders are featured unwinding long bean oil/short meal spreads.

CBOT corn futures are up 1 to 3 cents. US wheat markets are also higher…spring wheat futures are up a penny, HRW rising 3 to 5 cents and SRW wheat gaining a penny. Wheat is being supported by continued dry conditions for western portions of the US HRW crop region and increased fertilizer supply concerns. But technicals still favor the corn and wheat futures bears, with prices trending down of late on daily bar charts.

In Other News

– The US and Iran begin a battle of economic endurance in the Strait of Hormuz… The US military began a blockade of Iran’s ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to oil markets where benchmark prices have fallen back just below $100/barrel. After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still under way to resolve the conflict.

But such comments conflict with an Iranian response threatening all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. “Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe,” according to a statement from the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guards.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned that China would face big problems if it proceeds with reported plans to ship air defense systems to Iran, with US intelligence suggesting the equipment could be routed covertly through third-party nations in the coming weeks. While the shipments are not yet confirmed and China has denied involvement, the warning highlights a sharp escalation in tensions following failed US Iran talks, raising the risk of broader geopolitical confrontation and potential economic retaliation if military support materializes.

– China s Xi weighs in on US-Iran war… Chinese President Xi Jinping lamented a world in disarray, using some of his strongest language yet to describe a collapse of the Western-led international order as he vowed to play a constructive role in the Middle East. The international order is crumbling into disarray, Xi told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro S nchez on Tuesday in Beijing, using a Chinese phrase indicating not only chaos but also moral decay, reported Bloomberg. Xi said China would continue to play a constructive role in the Middle East by promoting peace and dialogue. Xi Jinping underscored China s principled stance of promoting peace and dialogue, and reiterated that China would continue to play a constructive role in this regard, China s state television cited Xi as saying to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed during a meeting Tuesday morning in Beijing.

The Bloomberg report made no mention any Xi response to President Trump threatening new tariffs on China if it supplies heavy arms to Iran.

– OPEC output plunge… War took a toll on crude oil production by major Gulf Arab exporters in March, according to data released by OPEC on Monday. CNBC noted that Iraq took the biggest hit with production collapsing 61% from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to 1.6 million bpd in March, according to the organization s monthly report. Output dropped 53% in Kuwait and 44% in the United Arab Emirates month over month, the data showed. Production in Saudi Arabia, OPEC s biggest producer, dropped 23% from 10.1 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd.

The report noted that the Saudis have relied on a crucial East-West pipeline to reroute barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea for export. The pipeline, however, recently saw a drone attack by Iran, which cut its capacity by 700,000 barrels a day, according to the state-owned Saudi Press Agency. That left OPEC output down 27% month over month from 28.7 million bpd to 20.8 million bpd.

When energy assets restart in the Middle East it will require many weeks to bring back thousands of wells and up to two months for the return of vessels to deliver the crude and transport to offtakers. Degree of damage to Middle East refining assets still unknown as governments and countries keep the information restricted.

– Prairie dryness easing… With the start of widespread spring seeding just around the corner, Prairie moisture conditions are continuing to improve. The latest monthly update of the Canadian Drought Monitor shows just 21% of Prairie agricultural lands impacted by abnormal dryness or some form of drought as of the end of March. That s down sharply from 47% at the end of February and continues a downtrend from last fall, when farmland impacted by dryness or drought hit 71% in November.

Most of the Prairies experienced near to above-normal precipitation in March, with much of region receiving between 85% and 150% of normal, with some localized areas exceeding 200% of normal due to multiple winter storms, the monitor said. However, other areas were not as lucky, including southern Alberta, which saw only about 60% of normal.

In Alberta, conditions generally improved, especially across central parts of the province where abnormal dryness and moderate drought receded after widespread precipitation that in some places exceeded 200% of normal. The Peace River region also saw notable recovery, with pockets of moderate and severe drought disappearing. But the picture was less favourable in the south, where abnormal dryness and moderate drought eased in some areas while severe drought expanded along the southwestern border as precipitation remained below normal and temperatures stayed warmer than average. Northern Alberta posted only minor gains, with small reductions in abnormal dryness and moderate drought.

Saskatchewan saw a more mixed pattern, with both improvements and localized deterioration. Southwestern Saskatchewan experienced reductions in abnormal dryness and moderate drought, while west-central and east-central areas also improved enough to erase some previously entrenched dryness. However, new areas of severe drought developed along the southern border where precipitation deficits persisted. Moderate drought also lingered from La Ronge toward the Manitoba border, reflecting longer-term moisture shortages, while northwestern Saskatchewan saw a slight expansion of abnormal dryness after another month of below-normal precipitation.

Manitoba posted some of the strongest overall improvement in Prairie moisture conditions. In the south, abnormal dryness and moderate drought were removed altogether after precipitation reached between 85% and 200% of normal, improving soil moisture ahead of seeding. Central Manitoba also improved, with reductions in abnormal dryness and moderate drought and the removal of a severe drought pocket in central and east-central districts. Northern Manitoba likewise saw drought ease, including the disappearance of moderate drought in north-central areas and a pullback in severe drought, although some dryness persisted along the northern edge of central Manitoba where precipitation remained limited.

– Russian wheat export prices down… Russian wheat export prices fell last week amid a drop in global exchange prices, strengthening of the rouble and a slight weakening of demand from importers. Also noted…poor weather conditions at ports during the first 10 days of April had limited shipments.
The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in May was US $237 to $239/tonne, according to SovEcon, compared with $238 to $240 the week before.

Interest from Black Sea importers softened, with buyers in Egypt and Turkey pointing to the approaching local crop”, said SovEcon. The agency estimated April wheat exports at 3.7 MMT.

– US crop update... US corn planting is moving forward. Parts of the Midwest and Plains did see some rain over the past week, delaying fieldwork, but recharging soil moisture ahead of the growing season. The USDA says 5% of US corn has been planted, compared to the five-year average of 4%, with activity moving into the heart of the Corn Belt.

6% of US soybeans are planted, compared to 2% on average, with the bulk of the progress in the south and southeast.

34% of US winter wheat is rated good to excellent, down 1%, and 32% is poor to very poor, up 1%, reflecting the ongoing drought in parts of the Plains. 11% of winter wheat has headed, compared to 7% most recent years. 6% of US spring wheat is planted, compared to the usual rate of 7%.

– US HRW wheat sees little relief... The parts of US hard red winter wheat country worst-hit by drought didn t get much in the way of relief. Rain in the past week behaved as expected with a restricted amount of dryness relief in the western parts of the production region, said Andrew Owen, meteorologist at World Weather Inc. Much of the west-central and northwestern production areas are advertised to remain dry or mostly dry during the next ten days, while a few showers occur in the Texas Panhandle, he wrote.

The best weather conditions for winter wheat will continue from north-central Texas through central Oklahoma to eastern production areas in Kansas where frequent rain is expected, the forecaster said. Additional opportunities for rain may evolve later this month and in May, and eventually there will be some greater rain in the driest areas, but it may come a little late for the best yields in 2026.

– South American crop updates… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday raised his estimate of Brazil s corn crop by 2 MMT to 134 MMT, with a neutral bias. He noted that rainfall last week and over the weekend favored central and southern Brazil. That led to improvements in soil moisture for the southern safrinha corn, but it slowed soybean harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul. Rainfall should increase over much of Brazil this week, which is good news for the safrinha corn, he said. Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil s soybean crop unchanged at 179 MMT, with a neutral to potentially higher bias depending on results out of Rio Grande do Sul.

USDA in its April supply/demand report last week left its estimate of Brazil s corn and soybean crop unchanged from March at 132 MMT and 180 MMT, respectively.

Argentina s corn crop estimate was left unchanged at 54 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias. The country s soybean crop was also left unchanged, at 48 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias. USDA also left its Argentine corn and soybean estimates unchanged last week at 54 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively. The big outlier is the Rosario Grain Exchange, which last week boosted its estimate from 62 MT to 67 MMT, driven largely by a boost to planted area, Cordonnier noted.

– India forecasts sub-par monsoon… India is likely to see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026, the government said on Monday, stoking concerns over farm output and growth in Asia’s third-largest economy as it battles inflation driven by the Iran war. The monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. The monsoon, which typically arrives over the southern state of Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, is expected to reach 92% of the long-period average (LPA) this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

“Currently weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions. But after June it’s very likely that El Nino will develop,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the IMD. El Nino typically results in hotter and drier weather in Southeast Asia.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to post a gain of 301.68 points on Monday to settle at 48,218.25, while the S&P 500 bumped up 69.35 points to 6,886.24. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index gained 183 points yesterday to close at 33,879.

Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 84 points. Wall Street futures are in positive territory, while awaiting March producer price data and a fresh ?round of corporate earnings. TSX futures followed sentiment higher, as have stock markets in European and Asian overnight.

Global stocks rebounded as investors naively bet on a resolution to the Middle East war even as the US blocked Iran s ports after the collapse of peace talks over the weekend.

Markets are trading hope, not resolution. The failed weekend talks did not produce a deal, but they also did not close the door on diplomacy, and that is enough for equities to keep pushing higher for now, said Charu Chanana, Saxo s chief investment strategist. The problem is that markets may be pricing the chance of de-escalation faster than the proof of it, so I would still expect a choppy, headline-driven tape rather than a clean risk-on trend, she added.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.343 at 97.820. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.82 US cents.

May crude oil futures are down $3.49 at US $95.59/barrel. Oil prices are falling as signs of possible talks to end the US-Israeli war on Iran eased supply risks stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While talk about the resumption of US-Iran talks put downward pressure on prices, the move lower ignores the loss of physical barrels of oil that are not moving.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning, with the nearby contracts leading the way. Bean futures closed Monday with losses of 5 to 13 cents. May bean futures are up 4 cents at $11.66/bu…seemingly locked in a sideways range currently between about $11.50 to $11.80/bu.

Anticipation/worry is building for US President Trump’s visit to China in May. Concerns of a souring situation with raising tensions between the US and China. Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on China if it transfers weapons to Iran. The market had been banking (hoping) on a big increase in old crop demand from China to boost US bean export numbers, but that window is rapidly closing with South American supplies now flooding the market.

Soymeal futures are up $1 to $4/ton this morning after finishing Monday a dime to $1.60/ton lower. Soyoil futures are 14 to 23 points weaker right now after falling 58 to 75 points yesterday. A potential double top formation remains potentially in the making on bean oil price charts.

US planting weather generally looks favorable. USDA s crop progress reporting from Monday pegged the US soybean crop at 6% planted as of Sunday. That is well above the 2% compared to the same date last year and the 5-year average.

Monday s USDA export inspections report showed 814,562 tonnes of US soybeans shipped in the week ended April 9. That was 1.2% above the week prior and 46.8% larger than the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 31.51 MMT of soybeans shipped since September 1, which is 25.2% below the same period last year.

Brazil s close to now being harvested soybean crop was estimated at 179.15 MMT by CONAB, a 1.3 MMT hike from the previous number in March.

Chicago corn futures are up 1 to 3 cents/bu this morning. The corn market failed to hold onto early Monday gains after crude oil slipped back below $100/barrel, closing the day steady to a penny lower and 5 to 6 cents off the session highs. Futures are declined steeply since the mid-late March highs.

USDA weekly crop progress data indicated the US corn crop was 5% planted as of Sunday. That was a 2-percentage point move on the week and compares to 4% done on the 5-year average pace. Recent Midwest rainfall is seen as beneficial longer term for US corn.

USDA export inspections data showed US corn at 1.782 MT shipped in the week ended April 9. That was down 13.15% from last week, and 2.59% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments since Sept 1 now total 50.23 MMT, which is up 33.9% yr/yr.

CONAB data shows the Brazilian corn crop raised by 1.3 MMT to 139.57 MMT. The second crop was hiked by 0.69 MMT to 109.12 MMT.

US wheat markets are starting higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are gaining a penny or two, HRW is up mostly 3 to 5 cents, while SRW wheat is a penny higher. The US wheat complex posted strength on Monday, with double digit gains across the three exchanges…spring wheat finishing the session yesterday up 10 to 13 cents.

USDA weekly crop progress data showed US winter wheat at 11% headed as of Sunday, compared to the 5-year average of 7%. Condition ratings were down 1 point to only 34% good/excellent, and down from 47% G/E at the start of the spring season in 2025 amid widespread drought in the central and southern US Plains.

USDA export inspection data tallied US wheat export shipments at 320,797 tonnes for the week ended April 9. That was 6.44% below the week prior and 47.62% below the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 21.026 MMT since June 1, which is now 14.64% above the same period last year.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday, as early gains faded amid a pullback in crude oil. Crude initially jumped on the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, and as the US said it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. However, the strength in crude eventually cooled. Chicago soybeans and soyoil both ended lower.

May canola finished Monday up a modest $1.10 at $705.30/tonne, but November eased 70 cents lower to $717.80.

For today… canola futures are moving around $1/tonne higher this morning, though trailing back from overnight highs posted just 90 minutes ago. May canola is up $1.30 at $706.60/tonne…already trading below its 20-day moving average ($720) and now flirting with its 50-day ($704). Should be a strong sense of chart support at the psychologically important $700 level.

But chart momentum indicators currently suggest some market exhaustion of the Dec-Mar rally. Resurgent bullish momentum in world vegoil markets is required to relight the upward inertia in canola. That possible double top formation developing on CBOT soyoil price charts is a concern.

Seasonally though, April-June tends to be canola price friendly. Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East conflict can again sway commodity markets at any time.

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“I like what the regulations have done,” Markus Weber, a director of the newly formed Canadian Agricultural Drone Association, said during the group’s first conference.

“I didn’t like these years when we couldn’t spray. The reality is we don’t have a bunch of drone spraying businesses yet that are starting where people don’t know how to spray. The pesticide going down right now is from farmers who have spent decades spraying and understand the chemistry, and the risk is low. We are using a new tool but the same type of chemistry,” said Weber.

Earlier this year, Health Canada’s Pesticides Regulatory Directorate, formerly the Pest Management Regulatory Agency, received 130 comments about the proposed changes, which will be taken into consideration during the final proposal, said Monica Le of the directorate.

“The proposal would allow drone application for products that already have aerial application on their label,” Le said during a video presentation to the conference.

“The goal is to provide more flexibility to growers while assuring the existing label requirements continue to be applied in a way that everyone is protected,” she said.

Weber said he believes the 130 letters and years of lobbying forced the government’s hand to make a decision about drone regulations.

“I like the fact that farmers who were spraying have put some pressure on the government. Spraying was considered illegal, but they did it anyway. The need for enforcement really helped to move the needle and policy conversation.”

Steve Li, a scientist with Auburn University in Alabama, said Canada is lagging behind other countries in drone use because of the lack of regulations that made spraying pesticides with drones illegal.

“In Canada, drone use is in its infancy stage because PMRA has not fully opened up the label application for label changes. Whenever that happens in the future, your adoption will just be like the U.S. and go up exponentially. Right now it is in its infancy stage.”

In China, there are 250,000 to 300,000 spray drones spraying 350 to 400 million acres of cropland.

In the United States, there are 10,000 to 20,000 spray drones spraying 16 to 20 million acres, said Li.

As one of the few scientists tasked with studying pesticide application with drones in the U.S., Li said there are many questions still to be answered about drone use.

“It is overwhelming. We need more people to work on this. Even though I am one of the early adopters of drones on the research side, it doesn’t mean one person or one team can work on all the questions and get all the answers. We need more universities, more researchers to be involved and more funding. Funding is a big problem,” said Li.

Canadian scientist and spray researcher Tom Wolf said he is surprised the government has announced the label requirements will be the same with aerial applicators and drones.

“This is a policy decision, not a science decision. This is the biggest U-turn I have seen in my career that PMRA has made,” said Wolf.

“Their initial policy that drones were a unique and different application method was a sound decision because it is unique and different. It isn’t like an aircraft, and we have a evidence in studies the drones are more difficult to use than an aircraft in terms of uniformity and swath width. I would stand by the fact they are a unique and different application method. The PMRA no longer believes that and are going with their OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation Development) partners, primarily U.S. and Australia,” said Wolf.

During the video presentation, Ross Breckels of the Pesticide Regulatory Directorate said the agency needed to weigh the risk to humans and the environment as well as implementation and regulatory compliance.

“We need to be somewhere in the middle of this. For this reason, the PMRA chose to align with many other OECD countries with respect to drone regulations,” said Breckels.

Wolf said while drones are new and exciting, they have a higher risk of spray drift than other application methods, especially with the low volume of water used in a drone and the smaller droplets created.

“I think as a country, we have to make a decision — do we still want to protect the environment? Do we still want to protect neighbouring crops? Do we still value that which we have done for 30 or 40 years? I still think we do value that, but we are opening the door to moving backwards.”

He said the ground sprayer pulled by a tractor is the gold standard of spraying with little drift. Wolf ranks high-clearance sprayers next followed by aerial applicators. The last place and worst for drift is drones.

“They have the least uniform pattern according to our data. They have the least consistent swath width, according to our data. They still have relatively unknown efficacy repercussions, and they are also the least productive, and here we are giving them the green light.”

Wolf said drones are not without their benefits. They are inexpensive to buy and easy to operate. They don’t leave tracks in the field and can get in hard-to-access places.

“They do have utility, and I don’t want to rain on that parade, but we have to balance that with the downside, and the downside is, are we viewed as responsible users of this pesticide technology or are we not? If we are not, we have a public image problem and possibly a future regulatory problem as well.”