They’re wary after what happened in July 2023 on the family’s acreage near Paddockwood, Sask., about 50 km north of Prince Albert.

Fremont said a spray plane operated by Lafleche, Sask.-based Sky Ag Services was working in a nearby barley field when it came over their yard still spraying. He and his son were covered.

“It was dripping off me,” he said.

“It was dripping down the roof of my barn.”

Within two days, the yard’s trees were yellow.

Fremont filmed the incident with his phone, ready because two days earlier his father’s home had been sprayed. They lost all their fruit trees and garden. A neighbour three kilometres away was also sprayed.

He has spent nearly three years since then trying to find out what was sprayed, how to prevent it from happening again and who is responsible.

After filing a complaint with Transport Canada within the 30-day window, contacting Health Canada and an investigation from the provincial government’s forensic agrologist, he was left with few answers and forced to file Freedom of Information requests to get details on his own file.

Fremont said it has all taken too long and none of the government departments involved were willing to do anything about it. Health Canada told him to call back if there was damage.

“I was also told I need to have a sensitive crop like organic land or bees because my children aren’t sensitive enough,” he said.

He took Sky Ag to small claims court in March 2026 and is waiting for the second appearance in June. The lawyer representing Sky Ag did not respond to The Western Producer.

The plane, Fremont said, had been hired by Monette Farms.

Saskatchewan Agriculture’s forensic agrologist went to the property about three weeks after it was sprayed.

“His initial impression within minutes of exiting his car was that a Group 4 herbicide was used because of the extensive damage to vegetation,” Fremont said.

Plant tissue testing found a fungicide, Prosaro XTR, had been used. The agrologist couldn’t explain why the damage was so severe.

Paper trail difficult to chart

Although Fremont reported the incident to Transport Canada within days, it took months for anyone to respond. Then, he was told his complaint had been lost.

A complaint from the neighbour who had been sprayed was also lost.

The Transport Canada investigator told Fremont to contact Shawn Bourgeois, owner of Sky Ag. Fremont said the conversation was not pleasant, but Bourgeois told him the spray was safe and he shouldn’t worry.

In the meantime, Transport Canada wasn’t able to get all the information it needed because the plane’s hard drive had been wiped.

The applicator was required to develop a safety plan, but Fremont said he wasn’t allowed to see it. He was told the pilot’s licence had been suspended for a year.

He began filing Freedom of Information requests. Those raised even more questions after one included a report from a Transport Canada investigator to whom Fremont had never spoken. There was no mention of the 18 months he had spent working with the other investigator. He just recently was able to raise his concerns with a director in the department.

He also spent $20,000 on bees in an effort to meet federal senstitivity requirements and asked the neighbouring farm to phone when they intend to spray. Although they used ground sprayers in 2024, in 2025 they used helicopters.

“I’ve gone through all these channels and I’ve done everything I’m supposed to do with no resolution,” he said.

Fremont claims he attended a rural municipality meeting and the council said there was nothing they could do. He alleged one councillor laughed at him.

“My child and I had fungicide pouring out of our eyes and my councillor … laughed at me,” he said.

Previous violations

Sky Ag has been implicated in other incidents like this. Recently, the company and some complainants from Speers, Sask., settled out of court after the entire community was sprayed in 2023. The FOI documents indicated the company also sprayed some of the Prairie Berries crop at Keeler, Sask., and other operations.

It’s unknown which, if any, of the company’s pilots may have been at fault or suspended as a result of these complaints. An FOI request filed by The Western Producer indicated the company was supposed to be fined for at least two violations.

Fremont said he only wants to be sure this never happens again and that he can live on the property where his family has lived for generations. The land being sprayed used to be pasture but was broken up for crop production.

He worries his property won’t be worth anything if large farms hire aerial sprayers who aren’t conscientious about where they spray.

On the province’s east side, farmer and RM of St. Phillips councillor Ron Sernowski said he was frustrated when the aerial applicator he hired flew over his farmyard. Sernowski has a pilot’s licence and said it isn’t difficult to avoid going over yards.

He was dismayed when the company he had hired dismissed his concerns, saying they are running a business and sometimes have to do what they need to do. That answer “blew my mind,” Sernowski said.

“We’re hiring these guys and is it a lack of respect? Is it a lack of understanding?” he said.

A buffer zone between his and a neighbour’s fields has been destroyed by aerial application, and he said many farmers are questioning whether they should continue using this method.

In nearby Norquay, residents reported significant garden damage last August due to nearby pre-harvest spraying.

Sernowski said the tendency is to blame the landowner when the problem is really the pilot.

A resolution at the 2024 Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities convention called for tighter regulation on aerial applicators, but he said nothing has changed. Sernowski said he isn’t necessarily in favour of more rules, but they might be needed.

“We’re not talking about over-regulation. We’re making an appeal to these guys not to fly over top of our farmyard.”

The Bad: The spring wheat market dropped by four cents per bushel in today’s trading action with brought the July contract down to US$6.92 per bushel. This erases the gains that were recorded at the end of May. Chicago wheat markets were down by 11 cents per bushel while Kansas City markets were down by three cents per bushel. The bad news is that Oklahoma crop tour projected a yield of 23.1 bushels per acre which will result in a crop of only 48 million bushels, which is less than half of last year’s  output. The fact that Kansas City wheat markets were lower despite the low estimates for the second largest (most years) producing state.

The Ugly: The nearby canola futures contract dropped by C$13.80 per tonne to settle at C$743.50 per tonne. The losses in canola pushed the nearby contract down to the top of the trading range. The move in the canola market was driven by the lower crude oil prices and a general sell-off in the vegetable oil markets. Soybean futures were down by 17 cents per bushel to settle at US$11.95 per bushel. The largest losses were in the soybean oil market which dropped by 2.5 per cent in today’s trade. The drop in canola futures was ugly today, but the potential for even further drops are certainly in the offing if (and only if) the drop in crude oil markets continues.

He went to Buchanan, the Quill Lakes, Wynyard, Tisdale and Melfort and said he would return to the region Friday and Saturday for another look.

“We had some good discussions about the flows of water and some things that probably could be done better, but they’ve just never seen this quick a melt this fast. I think that’s the issue,” he said May 5.

Water Security Agency issued a high flow advisory April 28 for a large area, and by last weekend elevated flows were reported in the Quill Lakes Basin, the Carrot River headwaters and parts of the Assiniboine River system. The agency is urging caution around water in these regions.

The Assiniboine River through Kamsack was flowing at 240 cubic metres per second earlier this week. That compares to the South Saskatchewan River flowing through Saskatoon last July at 80 m3/sec.

Marit said municipalities are worried about their bridge and road infrastructure and how to activate the Prairie Disaster Assistance Program if necessary.

He said he was encouraged at the level of collaboration among municipalities as they deal with water management, especially in the Lake Lenore and Carrot River headwaters area.

“What I really loved in the room today is a municipality that was all anxious to get rid of their water, and have now seen how it’s impacting downstream, and they’re saying, ‘you know what, we’ve got to find ways to control and manage this water better,’ ” he said.

Farmers know seeding will be delayed, but most are still expecting to be able to get on the land this month, he added.

Peak floodwaters are expected within four to six days on some of the affected river systems, and dozens of communities are already cut off because roads are washed out. Most of these municipalities are in the province’s northeast and east-central regions.

The Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities urged its members to ensure residents’ safety.

“Clear, timely communication with residents can save lives and property,” said president Bill Huber.

“We’re urging all RMs to use every available channel to share safety information and connect residents with provincial support programs.”

Those include the Provincial Disaster Assistance Program and the Emergency Flood Damage Reduction Program.

The Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency is responding to requests for emergency services officers and equipment. It has responded to 26 floods this year, and 18 were active as of May 6. All agencies are asking people to avoid floodwaters.

Residents are encouraged to check the flood risks in their areas on the Water Security Agency website, prepare emergency kits, identify evacuation routes and download SaskAlert to receive emergency alerts for their locations.

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain and oilseed markets lower this morning. The grain market bulls have turned shaky at midweek.

ICE canola futures are down $8 to $13/tonne right now, with plunging crude oil and vegetable oil markets. Chicago soybean futures are losing 5 to 7 cents/bu…pulled down with a soyoil sell-off.

CBOT corn futures are also down this morning…losing 6 to 7 cents. With a tip lower, corn traders are staring at a possible bearish double-top reversal pattern on the daily bar chart for July futures.

US wheat markets are also tumbling…having their price uptrends on the daily charts negated. Minnie spring wheat futures are currently off 10 to 11 cents, HRW also 10 to 11 cents lower and SRW wheat 12 to 14 cents down.

Profit-taking and a wave of long liquidation is featured in grain markets this morning amid the steep downdraft in crude oil prices on new hopes for a peace deal between the US and Iran.

However note…all ag markets are now up from their overnight lows.

Latest on US-Iran war

– Axios reports US and Iran close to agreeing on one-page memo to end the war
– Global stock markets rally, crude oil plunges on Axios report
– China urges reopening of Hormuz in talks with top Iran diplomat
– Gold gains over $154 on peace hopes
– US retail gasoline prices average $4.50 a gallon, near all-time high

US, Iran nearing agreement to end war… The White House believes it’s getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to US officials and other sources briefed on the issue, in an exclusive Axios report. The US expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the US agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved, said the report.

In Other News

– US crop tour projects small Oklahoma winter wheat crop… A group of Oklahoma crop experts on Tuesday projected Oklahoma’s 2026 winter wheat harvest at only 47.799 million bu, with an average yield of a paltry 23.11 bu/acre, following an annual tour of the state, said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. The estimates were based on field assessments conducted by Oklahoma State University Extension educators, as well as private crop consultants and area agronomists. The estimates were sharply lower than the 10-year yield average of 94.499 million bu in Oklahoma, among the top US wheat-producing states. The state’s harvest is projected to be far less than the 106.4 million bu that the USDA says were harvested in 2025. Farmers in Oklahoma planted 6% more acres of winter wheat in 2026 than they did a year earlier, the USDA reported in March. The USDA is scheduled to release its first production forecasts of the US 2026 winter wheat harvest on Tuesday, May 12.

“Due to severe drought, crop predictions are planned for an extremely poor crop,” Schulte said. The southern US Plains has been hit with the worst weather conditions since a 2023 drought forced widespread abandonment of wheat fields ahead of the harvest that year. This week, the US Drought Monitor said that western Oklahoma and western Texas “remained critically dry, leading to poor rangeland, pasture, and winter wheat conditions.”

Statewide, winter wheat in Texas was rated 56% very poor to poor on April 26, along with 45% in Oklahoma. Wheat plants were developing faster than usual in warmer-than-average temperatures, threatening yields.

The Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s forecast precedes an annual industry tour of fields in top producer Kansas, set for next week.

– US winter wheat freeze threat… Suffering winter wheat crops in western Kansas and Colorado will benefit from rain and snow through Wednesday, but any benefit may be more than offset by a sharp drop in temperatures. Morning lows are seen in the middle and upper 20s F in that area Thursday, said meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc., in a note. Could this be the last straw for a crop that is already rated poorly? Lerner wrote. World Weather, Inc. believes some damage is possible and the impact when added to all of the other problems will maintain a lower production year for the crop, but a true disaster is not likely.

– US tariff worries redux… Iowa soybean farmer Dave Walton, vice president of the American Soybean Association, urged the US Trade Representative to avoid taking actions in its Section 301 investigation that could put further strain on already hard-hit producers. We are concerned this investigation could lead to remedies that will set back ongoing negotiations and lead the reimposition of even higher tariffs against US soybeans by China, Walton said in testimony before the Office of the USTR.

The US launched Section 301 investigations into the manufacturing policies of 16 major trading partners, including the EU, China and India, to address unfair trade practices, the Office of the US Trade Representative said in a March 11 statement. The move comes after the US Supreme Court earlier this year struck down President Donald Trump s so-called reciprocal tariffs. The court found Trump had exceeded his constitutional authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Walton urged USTR to pursue targeted remedies, including exemptions for critical agricultural inputs, and to avoid actions that could disrupt key trading relationships by exempting Mexico and Canada from any future Section 301 remedies.

– Slow start for Manitoba planting… Planting of the 2026 crop is off to a slow start in Manitoba. Amid wet and chilly conditions, just 2% of the province-wide crop was planted as of Tuesday, said the first weekly provincial crop report of the season. That is 6 points behind last year and 4 points behind the five-year average.

Trace precipitation was reported in parts of southern and eastern Manitoba, with weekly accumulations ranging from 0 to 6.7 mm. The highest total was recorded at Sprague in the Eastern region.

Winter wheat and fall rye began to green up during the week and appear to have come through winter in good condition, while fertilization of winter cereal crops continues, the report said. Corn and spring wheat planting has started in the Central and Eastern regions, but no oilseeds have been planted yet. Producers are expecting fewer sunflower acres and more canola acres this spring as margins tighten.

Field pea planting has also started in the Southwest and Central regions, while soybean seeding remains on hold as producers wait for warmer soil conditions.

– US threatens European Union with tariffs on autos… US Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder said Washington will implement 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union relatively soon if the bloc doesn t swiftly ratify a long-delayed trade deal, Bloomberg reported. Unless we see some substantial progress, I think you probably should expect those relatively soon, Puzder told Bloomberg Television. President Trump recently vowed to slap 25% tariffs on European vehicles, accusing the bloc taking too long to ratify the agreement, which was initially reached last July. The EU, meanwhile, is frustrated over several Trump moves it argues undermine Washington s commitments under the pact.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 356.35 points on Tuesday to settle at 49,298.25, whiled the S&P 500 picked up 58.47 points to close at 7,259.22. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index gained 72 points to 33,567.

Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 402 points after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at record highs yesterday. TSX futures are following sentiment higher this morning, with stock markets in Asia and Europe also rallying higher.

Global stock markets have jumped this morning amid reports the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memo to end their war, while momentum in AI-driven trades accelerated.

It seems equity investors are still looking to put money to work and are jumping on positive-sounding news from the Gulf, said Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING. The prospect of a permanent peace deal remains highly uncertain, however, and oil ?looks set to remain very volatile.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.520 at 97.790. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.48 US cents.

June crude oil futures are down $6.25 at US $96.02/barrel. Oil prices are falling this morning after Trump said he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait ?of Hormuz, citing progress toward a possible comprehensive agreement with Iran. This signals potential de-escalation and raises hopes for the release of stranded vessels inside the (Persian) Gulf, which could gradually bring supply back to the ?market, said Anh Pham, senior research ?specialist for oil at LSEG.

Meanwhile, US gasoline supplies are still expected to drop to historical seasonal lows by late summer, further straining a tight fuel market upended by the war in Iran, according to a Bloomberg report. Stockpiles are expected to fall below 200 million barrels by the end of August, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Monday note. The projections for record seasonal low fuel inventories are the latest indication that the global energy supply crunch appears set to continue for months to come.

Total US gasoline inventories stood at 222 million barrels as of late April…the lowest for that time of year since 2014, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, high margins for diesel and jet fuel…supplies of which are running shorter as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz…are incentivizing refiners to produce more of those fuels instead of gasoline. US gasoline exports have also remained elevated as foreign buyers snap up barrels that might otherwise be delivered to US domestic markets.?

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are falling 5 to 7 cents/bu lower this morning, though now well up from their overnight lows as traders try to maintain the bean market s fledgling price uptrend. Bean futures ended 2 to 11 cents in the red on Tuesday, with the nearbys leading the charge. Soymeal futures are around $1/ton higher this morning after finishing down 50 cents to $1.30/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are down a stiff 133 to 151 points this morning, but steadily improving from the 200+ losses in the overnight session.

Crude oil is down $6/barrel this morning following the US and Iran reportedly closing in on reaching a memorandum of understanding that would, among other things, allow for safe vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a path to ending to conflict. Bean oil fell hard on the news.

Traders will watch closely for signs that outside investors are unwinding near-record-large bullish positions in the soy complex. As of last Tuesday, non-commercial traders in the soybean complex (soybeans, meal, oil) were carrying a net-long position in futures of over 500,000 contracts, which is just below the all-time record set in late 2020.

US soybean planting and emergence remain ahead of average. That s not to say there are not some areas of concern, but on the whole, for now, that US planting pace is a little price-bearish.

Trader are also waiting for details on the mid-month US trade meeting with China (May 14-15).

Chicago corn futures are trading 7 cents lower this morning, with possible double top implications on the price charts. The corn market closed Tuesday s session with deferred contracts fractionally lower to down 5 cents in the nearbys.

Crude oil is under notable price pressure following reports the US and Iran may be close to reaching a memorandum of understanding that would, among other things, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as open a path to ending to conflict.

US corn planting and emergence are happening faster than normal, but some delays are likely this week. There are also the continued questions about just how many US acres will be planted to corn this year. While export demand is solid, there s looming competition from cheaper Argentine corn, as their record expected harvest moves forward. Traders are also monitoring second crop development weather in Brazil as well.

US wheat markets are continuing to sell down this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are losing mostly 10 to 11 cents, HRW also down 10 to 11 cents, while SRTW wheat is 12 to 14 cents weaker. The US wheat complex posted losses across its three markets on Tuesday, with spring wheat 3 to 4 cents lower at the final bell. Tumbling crude oil is dragging the entire grain/oilseed complex lower, despite seriously deteriorating US hard red winter wheat conditions (see top of News section above).

Traders are watching the midweek weather in Kansas, which is expected to further threaten the HRW wheat crop with a frost. The sub-freezing temperatures are arriving at a vulnerable stage for the crop. But perhaps the expected increase in HRW acreage abandonment might be mostly factored into the market, and traders may be wary of pricing US wheat any further above competing exporters. US soft red winter conditions are comparatively good.

Note that the seasonal on Minnie spring wheat futures tends to turn down after mid-May.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended a bit weaker on Tuesday, pressured by weakness in crude oil and a softer tone across the broader oilseed complex. Declines in crude reduced support for vegetable oils tied to biofuel demand, weighing on canola values alongside losses in Chicago soyoil. Additional pressure came from improving planting progress expectations across North America and ample global oilseed supply prospects, including a record large Brazilian soybean crop outlook. Profit taking was also negative for canola.

July lost $1.50 on Tuesday to close at $757.30/tonne, and November was down $1.10 at $762.10.

For today… canola futures are posting losses this morning…down $8 to $13/tonne. Benchmark July canola futures are trading $8.70 lower currently at $748.60/tonne. But that s far improved from the $22/t plunge we saw at the low of the overnight session which tested support at the 20-day moving average ($737).

Energy and ag markets are down pretty hard as reports suggest that Iran and the US are considering proposals to end the war. That is not an uncommon headline, but what has changed this time is the pattern leading up to it. The Trump administration has made it clear this week that they want to be done with the war with Trump’s trip to China on May 14 possibly being a consideration. The apparent one-page agreement that the US is proposing suggests part of the deal will be for both sides to lift restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. With that, ag and energy markets have sold down.

Canola futures are down on the news, tracking the sell-off in CBOT soyoil and diesel markets. CBOT soybeans, EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil markets are all weaker today.

Not that it matters on a day like today, but persistent soyoil gains on most days resulted in another record ICE canola crush margin being set Tuesday at $410.04/tonne for May and $382.66/t for July according to exchange data.

The canola market outlook for the 2026 summer season remains cautiously optimistic but faces significant volatility…as we are seeing this morning. Prices recently rallied to four-month highs, with July futures trading above $760/tonne just a couple of days ago.

Market Drivers for Summer 2026

Bullish Supply Signals:

Tight Carryout Stocks: Agriculture Canada projects a sharp drop in ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop year to 1.06 MMT, which analysts describe as bullish for prices if realized.

Delayed Seeding: a cool spring and some areas of excessive moisture has created a “weather premium,” with potential late planting risks supporting current price levels.

Global Shortfalls: Australian canola production for 2026/27 is projected to fall by 19% due to supply constraints for diesel and fertilizer.

Bearish Pressures:

Forecast Discrepancies: The USDA projects Canadian ending stocks at 2.63 MMT, more than double AgCan’s estimate. This gap could lead to a sharp price correction if the USDA’s higher supply outlook proves more accurate.

Increased Acreage: Canadian farmers intend to plant 21.8 million acres of canola in 2026, a 1% increase over 2025, driven by strong domestic demand and record-breaking crush capacity.

Price Outlook and Seasonality

Historically, canola prices tend to peak in the May June period before eroding from mid-July into the harvest lows of September and October.

Summer Range: While recent momentum had pushed July canola futures above $760/tonne, AgCan s full-year average price forecast for 2026-27 remains more conservative at $650/tonne.

External Influences: Canola is tracking broader reverberations in crude oil and vegetable oil markets due to biofuel demand expansion and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Seasonally…canola prices tend to make a low during the September-October period when there is the most abundant supply. Harvest progress, yield reports and buyer demand all affect timing of harvest price lows. After a harvest low, prices usually rebound as harvest-time selling pressure subsides and as demand again becomes evident.

Canola prices tend to level off into calendar year-end, trade sideways to lower into mid-February and then improve into spring. Canola prices tend to peak sometime in May-June and, unless production problems continue to support prices, canola prices usually erode from mid-July into a harvest low. Seasonal price declines through summer and into the harvest can interrupted by a frost concern in August or early September.

Seasonal price patterns are one factor to consider when developing a marketing plan and analyzing a market. Fall delivered prices tend to be the highest at the beginning of the growing season when production uncertainty is the highest. That is often a good time to forward price some expected production, considering cash flow needs and available storage for the expected new crop.

However, in a year of reduced crop production in a major northern hemisphere area, prices can rise during the growing season right into harvest. Because of this possibility and that of an unexpected production shortfall on your farm, it is recommended to forward contract with buyers no more than about 35% of expected production prior to harvest. To price a higher percentage of canola before harvest, it is prudent to use the futures or options market to avoid the additional physical delivery commitments of contracts.

Seasonal prices should be considered as more of a tendency than a certainty. However, of the many factors that can affect crop prices, the seasonal price pattern is a factor to keep in mind.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/

The latest IGC projections are calling for a drop in total grain production of 60 million tonnes. The drop could be larger due to the higher prices for fertilizers in 2026-27.

Soybean production is expected to increase by 13 million tonnes from last year to 441 million tonnes.

Corn production is expected to drop by 24 million tonnes to 1.3 billion tonnes. The loss in corn area is due to the price outlook and higher fertilizer prices.

This has led to increases in the forecasts of global soybean production this year.

The largest change in production is forecast in global wheat production, with total production expected to drop by 23.9 million tonnes to 820.8 million tonnes.

The majority of the losses in wheat production will occur in the major exporting countries, amounting to 35.4 million tonnes.

IGC projects a 7.2 million-tonne loss in U.S. production, while European Union output is forecast to be down by 5.8 million tonnes. Losses in Australia this year are projected to reach 4.2 million tonnes, while Canadian production is expected to be down by 3.4 million tonnes.

The wheat estimates are likely to move even lower in the United States and Australia in the coming months.

In Australia, the impending El Nino and fertilizer shortages will likely drop wheat production even further.

The fertilizer shortage is most concerning because the crop is currently being planted, and most of the fertilizer application in wheat occurs during the planting season.

Even more ominous is the quickly developing El Nino, which is expected to bring dry weather during the Southern Hemisphere winter season and into the spring.

The problems with the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop are even more acute.

The crop in the southern Plains has suffered from extreme drought over the past three months, which has dramatically reduced its condition.

Kansas wheat conditions are rated at 33 per cent good to excellent and 41 per cent poor to very poor.

Rain is expected in the southern Plains this week, but it seems to be a case of too little too late. That will likely lead to even further reductions in wheat output in the U.S.

The USDA is likely to forecast a similar drop to world wheat production in its first report. The most important report from the department on that day will be the first surveyed winter wheat production estimate.

Wheat futures have rallied in the past week as the world wheat crop comes under threat from both adverse weather and fertilizer shortages.

The Bad: The nearby canola market dropped by C$1.50 per tonne to settle at C$757.30 per tonne. The recent sideways move in canola futures is an indication that the market has established a new market high and needs a new catalyst to push the market to new highs. The bad news is that canola markets couldn’t be dragged higher by the strong soybean oil market today.

The Ugly: The spring wheat market closed down by three cents per bushel to settle at US$6.96 per bushel. The spring wheat market was led lower by Chicago wheat which dropped by 13 cents per bushel  today. Kansas City futures markets were also lower today and posted losses of five to six cents per bushel.  Corn provided little in the way of support for the wheat market by posting losses of five to six cents per bushel. This was the third loss posted in spring wheat in the past four trading sessions.  The ugly news is that spring wheat had garnered little in the way of support from the slow planting pace this year. On May 3, a total of 32 per cent of the spring wheat crop was planted which was down from the five year average of 35 per cent. The market seems not to be concerned about the late planting in the Northern Plains.

The other global crop weather issue to keep an eye on is the forecast for a below-normal Indian monsoon, but it will be a few months yet before we see if that holds true.

There is no wait-and-see attitude in western Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado. Farmers there are deeply disappointed in the weather.

The crop stress from persistent dry weather is compounded by wild temperature swings, from excessive spring heat to hard frosts April 17-19.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop condition report April 27 showed the total winter wheat crop, hard and soft, significantly worse than last year at this time.

Almost the whole reason for the poor average rating is the terrible condition of the hard crop, centred in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado.

Kansas is the biggest producer, and its rating was 41 per cent poor to very poor, 36 per cent fair and only 23 per cent good to excellent. The other four winter wheat states are even worse than that.

Last year at the same time, Kansas was 17 per cent poor to very poor, 36 per cent fair and 47 per cent good to excellent.

The crop is also much more advanced than usual, with Kansas wheat at 43 per cent headed versus 11 per cent on average for late April.

Farmers in the region will likely soon make a decision on whether to keep poor stands or rip them up to seed a spring crop.

The hard red winter crop situation is similar to 2022 and 2023, when poor production helped keep hard red winter and spring wheat futures high, mostly above US$8 per bushel.

Indeed, early in 2022, the price soared even higher as drought devastated the 2021 spring wheat crops in Canada and the United States, leading to tight end-of-crop-year supply.

Compounding the situation was the upset caused by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

This year, Kansas hard red winter wheat futures have rallied 21 per cent from early March to the end of April. Minneapolis spring wheat over the same period rallied 14 per cent.

How much more they can rise will depend on the state of other crops.

U.S. soft winter wheat is OK.

Europe’s crop monitor lifted its soft wheat yield projection in April, but it was still four per cent smaller than last year

Current forecasts for Russia’s wheat crop are around 90 million tonnes, similar to last year, but a recent cold snap delayed spring planting and might have harmed some winter wheat.

The strong wheat prices of 2021-23 were helped by concurrent strong corn prices spurred by tight American corn stocks and the beginning of strong corn sales to China.

No big price bump seen yet for corn

Today, corn has not seen a major spring rally. High fertilizer prices might lead to fewer U.S. corn acres, but that has not shown up yet in pricing.

The U.S. Midwest, where most American corn is grown, has good moisture, as does North Dakota.

Corn seeding is running ahead of the normal pace.

Until recently, Brazil’s second, or safrinha, corn crop was doing well, and the country’s crop forecaster lifted its total corn production by 1.3 million tonnes to 139.5 million.

However, the tail end of the rainy season is turning dry in southern regions, and we are now moving into the dry season. If it remains dry, yields could take a hit and estimates might have to adjust downward.

Harvest of the safrinha crop starts in June.

Turning to India, the monsoon that begins in June makes or breaks its summer and winter crops.

The India Meteorological Department forecasts a disappointing monsoon with only 92 per cent of normal rainfall across the nation.

This would be a reversal of the last two monsoons, which delivered 108 per cent of the long-term average rain total.

The El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean is the main driver of the expectation for below normal accumulation.

The forecast is a broad assessment for the whole country, and the crop impact can vary by rainfall timing and location.

For example, the 2022 monsoon nationally was 106 per cent of the average, but in eastern and northeastern parts, rainfall was only 82 per cent of average. The agriculturally important northwest was at 101 per cent, but a brutal heat wave in March scorched crops.

That year, wheat yield was the lowest in the 2019-25 period, and the country banned exports.

This year, the monsoon forecast for August and September shows the most rain in the east and strong deficits in the agriculturally important west and northwest.

The summer pigeon pea crop could be hurt, creating a potential for imports of Canadian green lentils.

The U.S. national live price average for barrows and gilts was $72.15 April 28, up from $71.91 April 21.

U.S. hogs averaged $92.56 on a carcass basis April 28, down from $92.65 April 21.

The U.S. pork cutout was $98.26 per hundredweight April 28, down from $99.34 April 21.

The estimated U.S. weekly slaughter to April 28 was 0.972 million. It was 0.988 million the previous week.

Slaughter was 0.972 million last year at the same time.

In Canada, the April 18 Signature Four price was $219.86 per 100 kilograms, down from $220.46.

The April 25 Hams Marketing cash price was $217.86, down from $218.46. HyLife was not available this week, but on April 18 it was $234.16. OlyWest was $223.90, down from $225.60.

OlyWest 2021 was down, at $232.10, from $234.20.

HyLife’s adjusted price was not available this week, but on April 18 it was $234.16.

Bison

The Canadian Bison Association reported domestic carcass prices of $675-$710 per cwt., hot hanging weight, for finished bulls and $650- $700 per cwt. for finished heifers. Mature bulls were $550-$600 per cwt. and mature cows were $550-$600 per cwt.

Carcass prices for bison sold into the United States were US$500-$525 per cwt. for bulls and $475-$500 per cwt. for heifers.

Prices for mature bulls and cows were not available.

All prices are subject to fluctuations in the market and dollar exchange rates.

Prices for live bison in Canada were around C$5.74 per pound for bulls and $5.45 per lb. for heifers of good quality or better.

The mixed live animal price was $4.28-$5.14 per pound.

Lambs

Ontario Stockyards Inc. reported that 233 sheep and 660 lambs sold April 27.

Beaver Hill Auctions at Tofield, Alta., reported that 715 sheep and 291 goats sold April 20.

Wool lambs lighter than 54 lb. were $500-$700 per cwt., 55-69 lb. were $440-$535, 70-85 lb. were $435-$540, 86-105 lb. were $390-$560, and 106 lb. and heavier were $360-$455. Wool rams were $255-$315 per cwt. Cull ewes were $180-$320.

Hair lambs lighter than 54 lb. were $480-$530, 55-69 lb. were $460-$540, 70-85 lb. were $445-$470, 86-105 lb. were $400-$490 and 106 lb. and heavier were $320-$400. Hair rams were $210-$270 per cwt. Cull ewes were $220-$290.

Fed prices steady

Western Canadian fed prices remained steady during the week ending April 24, hovering around new record highs.

Alberta fed steers closed the week at $333.39 per hundredweight, up $1.64 per cwt. from the previous week. Fed heifers eased $0.50 per cwt. lower to close the week at $328.24 per cwt.

Dressed sales were reported in the range of $550-$556 per cwt. delivered, steady with the previous week.

Light volumes of fed steers sold on a live basis at about $5 per cwt. higher than these dressed sales.

Although U.S. packer interest was reported, no sales south of the border were confirmed.

In Ontario, there was a steady tone to the market.

While dressed sales were reported at $552 per cwt. delivered at the start of the week, trade softened to $548 per cwt. by the end of the week, with packers pulling their bids by late Thursday.

U.S. packer interest was reported, with sales to the U.S. at $330.50 per cwt. f.o.b. the feedlot. This was at a premium of $0.50 per cwt. (live) to the Canadian market.

Non-fed prices rise

A stronger tone was noted across the non-fed market during the week ending April 24.

D2 cows were $4 per cwt. stronger than the previous week, closing the week at $245.08 per cwt.

D2 cow prices have increased by seven per cent over the past 10 weeks, and seasonally stronger prices are anticipated soon.

Butcher bull prices hit a new record high at $270 per cwt., up $3 per cwt. from the previous week. Demand continues to be strong, and top-quality bulls were selling for more than $300 per cwt.

Railgrade cows were up $5 per cwt., reaching a new record high price of $440-$445 per cwt.

Western Canadian cow slaughter for the week ending April 18 totalled 5,758 head. This was up two per cent from the previous week but four per cent below last year’s volumes.

Feeder prices mixed

The feeder market in Western Canada saw mixed prices during the week ending April 24.

Steer calves weighing 500 pounds were the highlight of the week, with prices rebounding to within $7 per cwt. of the highs set in March.

Feeders weighing more than 1,000 lb. were the low spot, softening by $5 per cwt. from the previous week.

The forward delivery calf market was lightly tested, with Saskatchewan five-weight steer calves for October delivery trading in the mid-$720s per cwt.

Although grass buyers remain active on the market, demand is anticipated to decrease in the short term as orders are filled.

This year, grass buyers have focused on the 600- to 800-lb. category, though in the past they have purchased feeders weighing just more than 900 lb.

Demand for quality replacement females has moderated, with average prices falling by $200-$300 per head.

Although the top-end heifers are still finding homes in breeding programs, the second-cut females are selling for market price to feedlots.

There was still strong demand for bred cows, though volumes are lighter than earlier in the year. Younger cows with good January or February calves at side were bringing upwards of $9,000 per pair.

Cutouts see support

U.S. cutout prices eased higher during the week ending April 24, with Choice cutouts up $1.90 per cwt. from the previous week and Select cutouts up $4.10 per cwt.

The Choice-to-Select spread was $0.92 per cwt, which was 70 per cent narrower than the previous week. The Choice-to-Select spread has remained around $1 per cwt. since April 21.

Support for cutout values is anticipated to continue with Mother’s Day and the May long weekend coming up.