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What’s Your Betting Return on Investment?

2011-06-21T15:32:54+00:00

As a long-time venture capital investor, and recent horse racing enthusiast I wanted to share some perspectives on the return on investment (ROI) associated with betting on the sport. I developed an interest in betting at the races as a child, since there was a track within walking distance of my home, but I was always dismayed by the difficulty in knowing which horses to pick in order to get a good return. When I met the CEO of What Wins, Dave Vicary, and he encouraged me to try his handicapping products I was amazed at their ability to make the sport of horse racing more accessible. With these daily pick sheets in hand suddenly I had the ability to know immediately which horses were the most probable winners, the best value long-shots and the best possible exotic combinations. All with the comfort of knowing that these predicatioins were based on an unbiased, computer generated analysis of historical race data. They were so impressive; I became the first external investor in the Company. According to published industry statistics, the "house" (track, horse owners, etc.) retains approximately 23% of the average bet in North America, and 77% is returned to the bettor. That means, the average ROI is approximately minus 23%. Returns are distributed over a wide range and vary from race to race and day to day, with knowledgeable bettors making higher returns and novice returns lower, about minus 23%, since money is required in order to operate the racing infrastructure. To attract new fans, it is necessary to give people the tools to win more often and maximize their returns. Who has the time these days to scour traditional printed racing forms to figure out the best wagers? What Wins levels the playing field by looking at hundreds of historical factors influencing the outcome of a race and applying an advanced artificial intelligence engine to propose high quality bets that rival the wisdom of even the most experienced horseplayer. Taking a look at measured ROI results over the span of thousands of races, What Wins deliver substantially higher ROI than the industry norm. You can check it out for yourself in the What Wins Results Archives - Win Percentages. If you were heading to the track tomorrow, wouldn't you want to go armed with the best information to win? Photo Credit: Xrayspx

Filling the Grandstands Again: Rescuing Horse Racing

2011-05-09T16:53:04+00:00

I recently read an interesting article from Bill Shanklin, over at Horse Racing Business where he draws some interesting parallels between the decline of the horse racing industry and that of classical music. He argues that these two formerly popular entertainment events have not kept up with the demands of the current generation more interested in the hype associated with today's pop culture heroes. While I agree with the observation that certain aspects of horse racing are ideally suited for an era of proliferating mobile communications devices, the Internet and contracted consumer leisure time, I don't buy the commonly identifed structural issues of high takeout (the portion of the betting pool taken out by industry operators to manage the business side of the industry) and too many races over-saturating the market. Reducing supply to meet demand is a means to an end and the end is the demise of the industry and associated businesses. To be successful, companies and their leaders must continually reinvent themselves to meet the needs of the customers and more importantly the demographic they wish to attract. Horse racing in particular needs to compete with other forms of gambling that court the online gaming demographic. Year over year, that market is growing by over 25%. So the question isn't who but how. Reshaping horse racing to attract this demographic involves understanding both it's relative strengths and weaknesses, leveraging the strengths and addressing the weaknesses. Some of the characteristics of the sport make it very appealing. It is visual, with immediate gratification, and with the potential for large payouts. To be successful, the sport must overcome two obstacles: Win rates and return on investment must be comparable to other forms of gaming. Most horses involve nine or more horses giving the novice a 1 in 9 chance of winning compared to 50% when betting on other sports. Vegas and other online betting alternatives have an ROI of approximately -10 to -15%, while horse racig is -30%. The game must be simple for new fans to understand and learn. Without addressing these things, attracting new fans to horse racing will continue to be an uphill battle. What do you think? Photo Credit: Jason Merideth

What To Bet Your 1st Time

2011-04-20T15:23:55+00:00

We had a reply from someone on Twitter last week in response to this tweet of ours: They asked if we could explain in plain English what we were talking about. To answer the question: the most probable exotic plays are the exactor (horse 1 & 2 in the right order) and triactor (horse 1, 2 & 3 in the right order) bets that are the most likley to win. Exactors and Triactors are also sometimes referred to as Perfectas and Trifectas respectively. Horse racing is based on a parimutuel betting sytem which means that the total bets are combined into a pool. The racetrack takes it's cut (the takeout) and the remainder is split amoung winning bettors. That is why the most probable horses generally pay less in return, because more people have bet on them and hence the wagering pool divided among many. The behavior of bettors is what causes the odds to change right up to post time. If you are a horse race novice, we recommend you start with: a simple win bet (1st place) or, a win, place (2nd place) and show (3rd place) bets This is sometimes referred to as betting "across the board". As you get more acquainted with the sport you can evolve your strategy to include more complex exotic bets. Starting today, we will tweet some of these simple bets to help beginners get started. Follow us to get yours @whatwins.

Winning Bets at Rideau Carleton Raceway

2011-04-07T17:04:37+00:00

In our last post we looked at the difference between picking winning horses and finding value bets at the track. Applying those factors to Rideau Carleton Raceway's current roster of competitors, here are the drivers and trainers to watch when making your bets. Top 5 Winning Drivers (wins/start) Per Henriksen John MacDonald Stephane Gendron Gord Brown Mark Steacy Top 5 Value Drivers (payed/start) Orl Coville Jr (you would have made money if you bet him every start) Gord Brown Stephane Gendron Denis St Pierre Rodney Zeron Top 5 Winning Trainers (wins/start) Jamie Copley Per Henriksen Chance Stewart Sebastien Giroux Luc Loyer Top 5 Value Trainers (payed/start) Robert Smith Orl Coville Jr Normand Bardier Claude Cadieux Luc Loyer Looking at the results over the past year, had you bet on the value trainers in every race they were in you would have made $343 in profit. Not a bad return on your betting investment is it? Well there you go. Please let me know if this info is useful and what other questions can I answer. And good luck at the track!

Increase Your Profit at the Racetrack

2011-04-05T20:12:03+00:00

Hi. It's me again, Catie, the real brains behind What Wins (don't tell our CEO Dave). In a previous post "Top Tips to Winning at the Racetrack" I described in detail the things to consider when picking winners at the racetrack. Here is a summary again. Top 5 Keys to Picking a Winning Horse Easy winner, last start Winning favourite last start Won the most money in the last two starts Won the most money in the last three starts Fastest time in the last race Everybody likes to win at the racetrack, but making a profit is even better. So let me tell you what pays when you have the ability to analyze all the factors that influence wagering outcomes, including the behaviour of the betting public. Top 5 Keys to Finding Value Bets Driver with the best Return on Invesment (ROI) Trainer with the best ROI Driver with the best money per start Horse first start ever, if he has a strong trainer Horse won last race, beat the favourite As you can see, picking winners is all about the horse and its recent performance. To find value, and earn greater profits you need to dig a little deeper and take a look at both the trainer and driver. Unfortunately, most race programs don't tell you who are the best when it comes to the return on your betting investment. In our next post we will take a closer look at Rideau Carleton Raceway's top drivers and trainers in terms of winning races and generating value. Next time you head to the track or want to bet online on harness races, you'll make a more informed wager and, we hope, have more fun while you do it. Photo Credit: BfiShadow

Changing the Sport of Harness Racing for the Better

2011-03-25T19:43:49+00:00

Photo Credit: Ian Muttoo We must commend Jack Darling on his recognition of the work done recently in Ontario to advance harness racing along with his out of the box thinking on how to continue to improve the sport. That said, hiring Wayne Gretzky or any other celebrity for that matter, is not a game changer. It is merely putting a new face on it. In our view, the fundamental question is: Can we change the sport to make it more appealing to a wider demographic? Fortunately the answer is yes! At What Wins we have a game changer but first it is absolutely critical that the industry understands who they are targeting. Second, they must understand audience needs and what will appeal to them. I suggest that the target audience is anyone wagering online on any other sport. There is certainly a lot of people with an appetite for gambling. They are younger, technology savvy, with little patience for old men's tools like traditional racing programs. They are looking for excitement, and have an innate ability to multi-task. They are typically playing two or three games of poker at once at the same time surfing the internet for other forms of entertainment. So by their definition, and their opinion is the only one that matters, a game changer would be something that changes the sport of racing to meet their needs. In thier view the game is not harness racing, just like it is not baseball, football, or poker. The game is having the ability to bet and win at these games. Thus a game changer must be simple, easy, exciting, while allowing them to fairly compete and win day one. We have developed a product that we believe will fundamentally change our sport for the better. We are not ready to introduce it to the general public but we are ready to meet one on one with any person or group with influence in the industry, prototype in hand. If you are one of those people, comment, drop me a line, or send me an email. Jack Darling certainly is. We'd love to hear from you.

Reigniting Harness Racing in Ontario

2011-03-24T14:55:49+00:00

Photo Credit: Waveneyavene Congratulations are in order for Rod Seiling and the team at Ontario Racing Commission (ORC). The Ontario Racing Program appears to be well thought out, giant step forward in providing a quality product across the province. Further it will put the industry on a far better footing in the very competitive international market. Of particular importance is the concept of "Purse distribution into the pools of tracks where more wagering dollars are being bet". The benefits of this will be immediate: The quality and consistency of the horses, and thus the product, will improve. We will be putting our best product in front of the most people. The handle will increase. Assume two tracks are offering similar purses, track A enjoys a handle of $50k a race, track B has a handle of $5k a race. Horsemen will naturally put their horses where they face the least competition. Every time the trainer of a track A horse chooses to go to track B for "easy money", the industry leaves handle and thus money on the table. I, for one, will be very pleased to see purse distribution across the province and not just between commonly owned racetracks. This is one small step towards reigniting the harness racing industry in Ontario. What are your thoughts on "An Open Letter from Chair Rod Seiling"?

Why Reducing Takeout Won’t Save Horse Racing

2011-03-17T17:46:01+00:00

Anyone interested in truly understanding the business dynamics, history, and opinions around takeouts (cost of wagering) in horse racing should read Alan F. Balch's blog, Pricing the Future, prior to reading this post. The decision by the California authorities to raise the takeout on any type of wager, either a single race or multi-race wager, is probably the most misinformed and dangerous move possible. In the internet era where products from all markets are available and competing for the wagering dollar, there is no doubt the decision will reduce the appeal of the California product. It will reduce the amounts bet in California and ultimately reduce the takeout in absolute dollars. Further, I agree that in horse racing like all other businesses, takeout or prices should be dictated not by regulatory bodies but by market demand. The internet has removed all geographic boundaries and created a true competitive environment, allowing the consumer to make buying decisions based on value, or more importantly perceived value. Each jurisdiction should be able to price their product based on its quality in order to maximize their revenues and profit in a true global market. On the other hand, the argument that reducing takeout will fix our problems is also misinformed and dangerous. In all other businesses it is analogous to stating that reducing prices increases demand. This is simply not the case. In fact, pricing in a true competitive environment is set based on demand, driven by a need to maximize profit. To understand the impact of changes in takeout, you must first understand the difference between takeout and the true return on investment (ROI) available to the consumer. At What Wins we calculate a monthly rolling ROI based on the Morning Line and a mix of exotic bets at all Canadian Standardbred tracks. While the average takeout is around 21%, the ROI is generally around -30%. What this means is that industry insiders and very knowledgeable gamblers are driving down the ROI available to the average consumer. I wonder, if the takeout is reduced, how much of that reduction will actually reach the intended target market? Photo Credit: U.S. National Archives

Top Five Tips to Winning at the Racetrack

2011-03-11T21:15:35+00:00

Using an artificial intelligence machine, known as Catie, we've analyzed several hundred factors that influence the outcome of a horse race. Here are the top 5 tips for picking winners based on the data. Best time in the Last Six Races: This honour can be bestowed on only one horse in the race. As the saying goes, "if you're not the best, you're one of the rest". Furthermore, a horse can have five very poort times and one stellar race time: bet that horse to win. Easy Win: It's all about the last race. The most likley horses to repeat are those that are racing in the same class and won easily (by more then four lengths). Winning Favourite With Excuses: What have you done for me lately! Again, take a look at the last race for each horse. If they won, look a little deeper. If they were favoured and behaved as such (went to the front, or ran the outside) there is a strong possibility they will perform well again. It is important to ensure the winning effort was in a race - not a qualifier - and that they have not moved up in class. Money Earned in the Last Two Races: No really, what have you done for me lately? Horses race to pay their bills. Trainers enter the horses where they are most competitive (can make the most money). Horses and trainers that have consistently made money for their owners will continue to do so. Beaten Favourite with Excuses: If the horse was a favourite in the last race and lost, look again. Was there a reason? Where they caught outside, boxed in or otherwise interfered with? Most importantly, horses attain favourite status because the vast majority of the public have a reason to believe in the tem. If they lose, they quite often atone for themselves in the following race. These tips were garnered out of harness racing data from Woodbine and Mohawk Racetracks. Slight variations apply for the smaller tracks but we'll cover that in a future blog. In the meantime here are some good links to understand the lingo and get some background to horse racing. Hello Race Fans: Check out the handicapping and basic information sections. Focused on Thoroughbred Racing. USTA Fan Site: From the US Trotting Association, good background explanation of the sport of harness racing. Standardbred Canada: The premier Canadian site for harness racing fans and owners. It features lots of news about the sport. You can also find explanations of racing jargon, how to read the racing form and how to bet. Horse Player Interactive: This is a Canadian membership site for online wagering, but even non-members can find lots of useful information about race schedules and racing in general. See the Learning Centre tab on the main page. Photo Credit: Linda Dougherty