1. Orb – he’s training like a monster, he won the Kentucky Derby and is on a five race win steak.  He is the horse to beat, best connections in the world.

2. Governor Charlie – if he gets a nice trip I could see him winning the race.  He was my top pick for the Derby until he had his minor setback.

3. Mylute – always runs a good race, should be somewhere in the superfecta.

4. Departing – working great, but the question remains if he is good enough.

5. Oxbow – didn’t like his last work, but he’s tough stuff should improve with smaller field.

6. Will Take Charge – the wise guy horse, don’t know if he’s good enough.

7. Goldencents – I think the Cali horses are weak for the most part, including this one.

8. Itsmyluckyday – tired horse, been in training too long.

9. Titletownfive – does not belong in this race whatsoever, should be running in a G3 6f Sprint somewhere.

Going into Derby 139 everybody deep down knew who they wanted to win if their picks did not come through, no one needed to say it, it was already a given – the horse trained by Shug McGaughey and campaigned by the Janey’s and Phipps’s was every thoroughbred fan’s hero at heart.  Orb is that horse, and he is a symbol of what the American Thoroughbred has always stood for – Class.  In the current racing society of commercial breeding, early success, and loss of patience with the animal we have a horse we can all rally around not just because he himself is a potential superstar, rather because of great people that surround the horse.

With the Janey’s and Phipps’s we don’t have to worry about messy political backgrounds surrounding the horse, we don’t have to hear the same old stupid stories of owners who only buy buy buy, and don’t do one damn thing to better the breed.  These are people who honestly care about the improvement of the thoroughbred and it has been shown for years with all the successful runners those families have thrown out.  Those names including: Buckpasser, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer, the ill-fated Ruffian, along with countless others.

These people love the thoroughbred, and they have poured their entire lives into the game that we all love.  Along with the owner and breeder management of the horse, is the mastermind who let the horse become what he is today – Shug McGaughey.  Shug is a great guy, everybody in racing loves him, the fans all love him, and he has a level of respect that few others in the sport have or will ever achieve.  He himself, has been able to let his horses take him to where they belong.  He operates for the Phipps racing stable, and they have become a potent combination over decades of racing.

Shug’s ability to let the horse come into itself has allowed for some of the greatest performers in racing to strut their stuff.  Easy Goer was one of the greatest horses that ever lived, and if it wasn’t for a black comet in California he’d likely sit atop everybody’s list as the greatest ever considering his accomplishments outside of his Classic and Breeders’ Cup defeats.  We shouldn’t forget Personal Ensign, who was so badly broken that it took an almost impossible effort for her to recuperate after a major surgery and become not only exceptional on the racetrack but perfect, and the same can be applied to her broodmare career.  There are so many others on this list I could go on forever and along with those we have of course our current turf star Point of Entry and Kentucky Derby Champion – Orb.

As shown through the success of his connections, Orb allows all racing fans to root for one horse.  Win or lose, we all know what this horse stands for and everything we remember about the ‘old’ racing days.  Given the odds of the horses on Derby Day, most all of which dropped drastically it was quite apparent that every horse was being bet.  Orb himself went up to 7-1 at one point as the Morning Line Favorite.  Even though people bet horses who they thought had a shot or who they were partial to, every racing fan deep down wanted one horse to win and we got that wish.  We can only hope Orb is the horse to take the sport all the way to the mountain top.  Unlike so many stars before him, especially in recent years, Orb is a light that can hopefully shine forever – through his fans, through his connections, and hopefully after about 5 more weeks – hopefully his light can shine through history itself.

Orb is one we can all root for.

1. *Normandy Invasion (5) – After hours of number crunching, going over pace analysis, different scenarios, and how the horses look coming into the race I had to put D-Day up on top.  Chad Brown has been so hands on with him and letting the horse come into his own that I can’t look elsewhere.  He’s got a nice pedigree and although I do prefer #2’s bottom half and ability to win races, this horse was my personal top 2 year old.  He looks great, he’s training great, and even the exercise rider is having a handful.  I expect him to be a little more keen than usual but I don’t think it’ll hurt him ala Summer Bird in the 2009 Belmont.  He looks so fresh and relaxed at Churchill there is nothing not to like.

2. *Revolutionary (3) – I flip flopped him and #1 about 10 times before finally settling on this position.  He has the jock, kick, and pedigree to get the job done.  He’s already shown the ability to run well on a track labeled good and he’s ultra tough.  I wouldn’t be upset or surprised if he beats #1, but for now history will have to take a step aside as the beaches of Churchill Downs and not France are where this battle commences, the revolution will have to wait.  As I pondered over the replays and expected pace, I came to the scenario that #1 had a much slower fractions to run into in the Wood and he still closed just as fast as this horse and had it been similar early fractions we may have been looking at a 4 length winner in the Wood.  Still, best of luck – both are really nice horses and this horse is fully capable of winning.

3. *Orb (16) – He’s a class horse, and if he wasn’t classy he’d be further down on my list but he knows how to win big races and that is what matters.  He’s a plodder/grinder type there is no way around it, if you go through pace scenarios and the numbers he’s almost as slow in terms of natural speed as 50-1 longshot Golden Soul – but his class and toughness is what separates him from horses further down the list.  He’ll be tough, and he’s training like a monster.

4. *Goldencents (8) – This California speedball makes leaps and bounds while jumping up the list to the four spot.  He got a good draw but will have to outrun them into the first turn, if they go a 136 high or slower for the mile he has a great shot.  The speed is pretty spread out and he’s right in the middle.  Krigger needs either to restrain him or pray for a slow mile, which will be the make or break point for this horse.

5. *Itsmyluckyday (12) – I’d love to move him into the four spot but I feel like he’s possibly a tired horse, though still better than most of the field.  Trainer is purposely training him slow to get his batteries recharged, if he’s 100% he can run great if not then he’ll run like he did in the Florida Derby.  Couldn’t put him in top 4 due him being in training for nearly a year straight.

6. Golden Soul (4) – Possibly the slowest closer in the entire race.  That being said, he’s training like a graded winner right now and appears to love Churchill Downs.  He would have been on my lists earlier in the month but I really wasn’t prepared for all the defections last week.  I could see him hitting the exotics but may not be good enough to get the job done.

7. Overanalyze (9) – He will be in the 2^nd flight and has a great running style.  I think he’s a good horse but just not as good as the best this field offers.  He could make for a nice exotic play.

8. Mylute (6) – He seems to be one of the two wise guy horses this year — along with Palace Malice — and is going into the race in nice shape.  I think he’ll improve if it comes up wet but I don’t think he’s good enough.  Much like number 6 and 7, he could be a very nice exotic play but he’ll take some play with Rosie on his back.

9. Vyjack (20) – This poor guy pretty much lost all hope with the 20 post.  Unfortunately for him he isn’t Big Brown and lacks enough early speed to get up into position.  I expect him to be stuck very wide, mid-pack throughout the race.

10. Verrazano (14) – This horse drew the perfect hole and has a great jock but I just can’t see him being any factor.  No ‘untouchable’ race here, even with the post he’ll get bumped in the Derby — they all do, and I don’t think he’ll react well to being behind three to five other horses.  This tiger’s hunt has come to an end.  Curlin and Bodemeister would eat this horse for lunch and they couldn’t win – no reason to believe this horse can.

-*    Indicates horse will be used in betting.

I will be betting my Top 2 Selections (Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary) to win.  Along with that I will be using those two with Goldencents in an Exacta Box.  I also hope to use my top 5 selections in some sort of exotic wager(s).

Best of luck everyone; it is going to be a great weekend.

—Bets are in…..due to the fact that my top 5 choices all dropped below double digit odds I decided against any exotic wagers.  I only used my first, second, and fourth selection in my wagers as shown here:   $28 W  on 5, $10W on 3, $2 Exacta Box 3/5/8

2. *Revolutionary – Has Borel, has guts, has talent, very dangerous.  The thing with him is at least they won’t have to worry about a post.  He’ll be tough, hopefully he gets a nice trip.  I feel with Borel up he’ll likely go off as post time favorite or second choice.

3. *Normandy Invasion – Seems to only be getting better, should run well if he gets the right trip.  He was the best horse in the Wood but caught traffic in and out of the turn and a slow pace to run at.  From all account he has been outworking everyone at Churchill Downs this past week.  He looks great and is moving great with high energy.  Maybe he can finally get a decent trip.

4. *Orb – Ran against a slow pace in the FL Derby to beat nice horses, should be prime come Derby day.  Has the right connections to run big and keep making forward progression.  I can envision him being a little closer to the pace than usual but it’s hard to say.  He is in the hands of one of the best trainers ever, it’s all wait and see.

5. *Itsmyluckyday – Nice horse, regressed last out should run better in the Derby.  Has legitimate speed to sit just off the top flight.  So long as he gets 1 ¼ he should put in a great effort.

6. * Vyjack – Ran well in Wood despite mucus build up.  Slow work recently, but could be what he needs to get back to 100% health.  He seems to be looking great and with a nice set-up he can also sit just off the top flight of horses and have a run if he gets 1 ¼ …..sort of like Itsmyluckyday but with less natural speed.

7. *Overanalyze – Ark win was good but beat nobody in the process.  He was the only horse in the race who was able to kick away from the pack and looked nice doing it.  Now we just have to wait and see how he looks leading up to the race.  Hard to gauge him.

8. *Verrazano – Weak ML favorite, perfect setup in the Wood and still barely won.  $$$-eater written all over this horse.  Another horse who looks unlikely to want a 1 ¼.

9. (10) Mylute – Decent kick in the LA Derby, but couldn’t pass winner.  Still, he has a nice shot to run well if the pace quickens and he’s still improving.  All depends on how much he’s progressed.

10. ^Goldencents – Back on the list this week.  He has a great amount of speed, but if he runs closing fractions like he did in the SA Derby he has zero chance, Krigger must control him.

*No Change

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Returning to this year’s George Morton Levy Final is everyone’s favorite multi-millionaire, Foiled Again.  Part of another Ron Burke entry with millionaire  Annieswesterncard, the 9 year old Foiled Again won his final three eliminations but made it into the finals only after the Burke connections sold stablemate Something For Doc to Mark Ford and his partners for what Ford referred to as “too much money”.  Foiled Again won the Levy in 2009 and 2010, then finished second to Burke’s Atochia in the 2012 edition despite leaving from post 8.  This year, Foiled Again will leave from post 7 and will be driven by his regular pilot Yannick Gingras, with Matt Kakaley in the bike behind Annieswesterncard from post 3.  Something For Doc, winner of four elims, had no luck at the draw and will leave from post 8 with George Brennan driving.  Looking to take advantage of the rail draw will be Razzle Dazzle (Mark Silva/Brian Sears), winner of his final two eliminations and second choice in the morning line odds.  Completing the field are Versado (Nick Surick/Andy Miller), Dancin Yankee (Gary Green/Tim Tetrick), Casimir Jitterbug (Tony O’Sullivan/Doug McNair), and Second Wind N (Peter Tritton/Eric Goodell).  On a final note, the classy Nob Hill High, fourth place finisher in the 2012 Final, was the Also Eligible in this year’s Levy Final and will leave from post 7 in the Consolation, just inside Ron Burke’s Clear Vision.  Not too bad for Bruce Saunders’ 7 year old “spoiled pet”!

Here are the Matchmaker and Levy finalists, listed in post position order.

Blue Chip Matchmaker

1-Feeling You (Amber Buter/Tyler Buter, 3-1);

2-Eighthunrdolarbill (Andrew Harris/Brian Sears, 10-1);

3-Camille (Ron Burke/Yannick Gingras, 8-5);

4-Warrawee Koine (Tony O’Sullivan/Jason Bartlett, 6-1);

5-Ramona Disomma (Rene Allard/Dan Dube, 5-1);

6-Krispy Apple (P.J. Fraley/Matt Kakaley, 4-1);

7-Rocklamation (Ron Burke/George Brennan, 8-5);

8-Anndrovette (P.J. Fraley/Tim Tetrick, 4-1).

George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series

1-Razzle Dazzle (Mark Silva/Brian Sears, 4-1);

2-Versado (Nick Surick/Andy Miller, 6-1);

3-Annieswesterncard (Ron Burke/Matt Kakaley, 9-5);

4-Dancin’ Yankee (Gary Green/Tim Tetrick, 5-1);

5-Casimir Jitterbug (Tony O’Sullivan/Doug McNair, 10-1);

6-Second Wind N (Peter Tritton/Eric Goodell, 12-1);

7-Foiled Again (Ron Burke/Yannick Gingras, 9-5);

8-Something for Doc (Mark Ford/George Brennan, 8-1).

1.*Governor Charlie – Still sits at the top, and really liking him more and more.

2.  *Revolutionary – Good news he’s picked up Borel.

3. *Normandy Invasion – As more time goes by the more I like this horse, he’ll be there at Derby finish so long as he likes Churchill.

4. *Orb – The more I watch the Florida Derby the more impressed I become.  It was a weak pace for Gulfstream and the next best horse had a great set up and he still beat him easily.  Has great connections to get the roses.

5*Itsmyluckyday – Stays here, waiting for works.

6. *Vyjack – I still like him better than the other ‘V’, like the other just waiting for the works.

7.^Overanalyze – I wanted to put him on the initial list but thought he may come up short in earnings, he bounced back in a big way in the Ark Derby, and we’ll wait to see how he proceeds up to the race

8.  (7) Verrazano – As weak a Derby favorite as you’ll see, but he’s still unbeaten so he makes the top 10.

9.*Uncaptured – I don’t think he likes synthetic and I eluded to that before the Bluegrass, the only question is does he still have enough bottom for the Derby.  At least we know he likes Churchill Downs, something none of the others have had the chance to prove.

10.*Mylute – Had to put him here over Goldencents for two reasons.  The Cali horses appear very weak this year, and although beaten in the LA Derby his style bodes well for a Derby laden with speed unlike Goldencents who will be right up near/on the pace.

*No Change

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2. *Revolutionary – This horse may have the best pedigree from a speed/stamina balance of all the horses lined up for the Derby. People may give him flack being by War Pass (the 2007 Champion 2YO), but his dam’s side is lined with stamina influence his dam being by A.P. Indy. Along with a strong pedigree, he has the grit to go with it, having won his last two races by a combined ½ after coming off the pace in both one where he was caught on the inside the other flying on the far outside. He’s tough and he has all the qualities of a Derby horse. I’d really like to see some nice works out of him after shipping all over the place.

3. *Normandy Invasion – He still isn’t a good gate horse and his trip wasn’t fully ideal. He was bottled up going into the far turn made a move into very slow fractions, came on the entire way and only lost by ¾ of a length. This horse looks really good, the Derby has a lot of speed this year and so long as he gets a nice trip and works nicely up to the race he could get a piece of it.

4. *Orb – Don’t worry I haven’t forgotten about this Florida soldier. I really do like everything he stands for; his connections (McGaughey and the Janney’s) really deserve the Derby more so than anyone else in racing. This horse may just be their ticket to the winner’s circle but I do have some issues I have with him and thus the reason for keeping him off of the top spot. For starters, he may be a horse for course type. He didn’t run much in New York while he was there, he had a decent race at the end of 2012 but that was about it until he got to Gulfstream. Luckily for his sake all of the big Gulfstream horse’s showed up in the Florida Derby (and no I don’t count Shanghai Bobby as one of them), so that shows he beat class horses. I was also impressed that the speed horses could not run away from him after relative easy fractions for Gulfstream so that was impressive. I just don’t know how he’ll react to a different type of dirt surface because he never ran a really good race on any of the New York tracks. I will have to wait for his works until I put him any higher. This all being said, I will be rooting for him (along with my other top choices). Waiting on the works.

5. (6)Itsmyluckyday – Like last week, other than being a little short last out this horse is hard to knock. I think he regressed in the Florida Derby from his Holy Bull and he should be prime come Derby Day. The stamina is in question, not the class.

6. (5)Vyjack – I think a mixture of his breeding and the fact that he had mucus may have helped lead to a defeat in the Wood. I’m still not sold that Verrazano is the better of the two ‘V’ horses, and I’ll take the trainer’s word for it and say he wasn’t 100%. Only dropped one spot.

7. *Verrazano – I think the issues I had with him came to fruition last Saturday. He was two off a dawdling pace and still barely held off Normandy Invasion who had to fight against fresh speed horses in the end. I still think he’s a paper tiger. The Wood field may be weaker than expected but given the fact that the Cali horses don’t look too good this year, I’ll keep him at number seven.

8. (9)Uncaptured – I keep getting the feeling that this horse is going to get good at the right time. Even if he loses in the Bluegrass (on a surface I don’t think he cares for), he will still make the Derby gate God willing. If he works well and runs solid in the Bluegrass he’ll probably bump up my list.

9. ^Goldencents – I really don’t care much for the Cali horses this year, but I feel like he deserves to be on the list given the fact he won a major prep race. This horse isn’t I’ll Have Another and the only way he wins the Derby is if the pace is slow and he gets a nice trip. I also think his win may have had more to deal with Flashback sitting off the pace and getting chips in his knee (he’s now off the Derby trail) then running on his own merit. Cali horses are questionable especially given the last 3/8’s in a pedestrian 38 seconds.

10. (9)Mylute – I question the LA Derby field aside from the winner. I like this horse, but will need to see some works before he moves up.

*No Change

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****

So there you go, this is the first edition (of 5) of this year’s top Derby contenders.  I will post the list from here on out every Saturday leading up to the Derby, the last one being posted the morning of the Derby.  I wish all of you the best of luck this weekend on your prep bets and have a wonderful weekend.

–Side note:  I want it to be known that for horses that are unlikely to make the Derby due to late starts on the scene that Abstraction appears to be one of the best (if not the best) 3YO in training.  The way he won at the Fair Grounds isn’t seen every day.  He will be one to be reckoned with down the road, likely the Preakness or the Belmont – don’t forget you heard it hear.

Race 6: The speedster – #2 Rockincam will get the rust out tonight in the opener of the Levy. Eric Goodell is in the bike for trainer R. Nifty Norman. I am going with #8 Clear Vision trained by Ron Burke and driven by Yannick Gingras. The post position is the only knock, but there’s not much early speed inside. If you’re looking for a long shot play, go with #4 Roadway.

Race 7: #5 Electrofire is the speed here and loves the ½ mile oval at Yonkers. Brian Sears is back in the bike for trainer Andrew Harris. #7 Atochia didn’t have a good outing last time out and will need to also shake off some early season rust to get back in racing form. Not a good idea to leave this one out of the exotic plays. #1 Forever Just is the morning line favorite and I just don’t see it on paper. Maybe Frank Drucker’s crystal ball needs batteries.

Race 8: #4 Something for Doc won easily last time out by 5 ½ lengths and could win by even more against these tonight. Trained by Ron Burke and driven by Yannick Gingras. The only competition or threat is #1 Our Cullenscrown N who has raced well in 2013 winning 3 of 8. The inside draw helps, but the horse will need to outlast Doc.

Race 9: This race, in my opinion is the most competitive with #7 Annieswesterncard and the #8 Versado. Both leave from the outside and that shouldn’t matter when you have the speed these two are blessed with. Versado trained by Nick Surick and driven by Brian Sears is my selection here. Versado has been terrific in 2013, winning 6 of 11 races. Annieswesterncard will be there throughout with Yannick Gingras getting the drive again for the Ron Burke stable. If you’re looking for a sleeper, #1 One More Laugh, the leading career money leader in this one has the resume to upset here.

Race 10: #3 Foiled Again, trained by Ron Burke and driven by Yannick Gingras did well in the 1^st leg after a long layoff and should only improve here. This is my best bet tonight and we will see this horse in the final mixing it up with some good company. #8 Razzle Dazzle who upset Foiled Again last time out will need to be even sharper leaving from post 8. One other challenger could give Foiled Again some trouble and that’s #1 Code Word, trained by Brad Irvine and driven by George Brennan. The horse leaves from the inside and has the speed to set the pace.

Be safe and enjoy the racing tonight at Yonkers!

Race 1: As mentioned, the 4 year old mare Eighthunrdolarbill starts it off tonight and will try to get her first win in 2013. She finished strong last time out for trainer Andrew Harris and Brian Sears will get the drive once again. If you’re looking for a price, Chief Karen would be my selection with Larry Stalbaum in the bike, trained by Heidi Rohr.

Race 4: This looks more like a Matchmaker race with the Burke entry of (#1 Rock N Soul and #1a Ramalama). This race is much more competitive and there are four horses in this one that have the resume to win this leg in the series. The talented 4 year old #4 Handsoffmycookie, driven by Daniel Dube put in a good effort last time out. #3 Anndrovette should do better this time out getting a race under her belt after a long layoff and one to watch with the improved post draw with Tim Tetrick in the bike. I am going with Anndrovette here with the post draw and driver.

Race 6: The Matchmaker is becoming more like the Ron Burke series as he sends in the entry here with (#1 Bettor B Lucky and #1a Hot List). Bettor B Lucky didn’t show well last time out and the post draw didn’t help. This time she draws the inside and should do better. Matt Kakaley gets the drive this time as Tim Tetrick will drive for the Linda Toscano trained JK Fine Art. #2 Royal Cee Cee trained by Mark Harder with George Brennan in the bike is my selection in this one. The horse moves inside and should improve off its last.

Race 7: This should be a two horse race with the Ron Burke entry of (#1 Camille and #1a Ginger and Fred). Camille won last time out handily and moves inside and should even tougher this time out. It will be the Burke entry crossing the wire ahead of the rest and more than likely at 1-9 odds. I would just be a spectator and avoid the window for this race unless you like to collect pennies.

Race 9: Ron Burke will send in the entry of (#1 Foxy Lady and #1a Rocklamation). In the first leg Rocklamation won in 1:56:3 and that will not be enough here tonight. The mare will need to step up tonight against #5 Krispy Apple who is my selection in this one. Krispy Apple won the first leg beating a very tough Royal Cee Cee. She will leave from post 5 again for trainer PJ Fraley. Matt Kakaley gets the call again and will try for two in a row. #4 Ramona Disomma won last time out, but is outclassed here against some tough mares.

It should be another great night of racing with some of the best female pacers in the sport all in one place tonight.

Next Up: George Morton Levy Series – 2^nd Leg