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		<title>The Five Ts of Risk Management</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thierry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2021 04:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkinbio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Management]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[#riskmanagement]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Risk Management is more than drawing a colorful matrix. We explore the various components of a successful implementation. That could be summarized just with five Ts</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2021/04/29/the-five-ts-of-risk-management/">The Five Ts of Risk Management</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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<p>It was one of those sunny days in early spring where kids were playing at the playground. Having a chat with another father, we rapidly talked about work. After exchanging on our experience on home office with young kids around, our discussion went inadvertently on risk management.</p>
<p>This acquaintance – let’s call him Dan – works in a small-medium sized company active in logistics. To achieve quality standard, they have introduced enterprise risk management a couple of years ago. There were initially a lot of expectations. For instance risk management would help the management team to better anticipate possible problems/crisis. Unfortunately it became quickly a complicated process that got turned into a paper exercise after they had a ‘specialist’ helping them to set it up. Then came the ‘unexpected’ pandemic – which was not identified as a risk scenario in their register – and it finished to discredit the whole thing.</p>
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<p>I’m a true believer in risk management.  It should not only help making better decisions. It can also make strategic planning more effective. Besides, it can provide assurance to the owners/shareholders that risk is being managed in a systematic way. The problem is that once you go out of the ‘risk management expert circle’ (where we are all convinced that risk management is great), people are way less enthusiastic and convinced that risk management can actually create any value. Instead it is considered as some kind of a Rubik’s cube game (also called risk matrix) and/or a paper exercise to fulfil some compliance requirements. In that sense, Dan’s words did not really surprise me.</p>
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<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><img loading="lazy" class="size-medium wp-image-8485 aligncenter" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/rubiks-cube-835373-300x276.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="276" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/rubiks-cube-835373-300x276.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/rubiks-cube-835373-1024x941.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/rubiks-cube-835373-768x706.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/rubiks-cube-835373-1536x1411.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/rubiks-cube-835373-2048x1882.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></p>
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<p>Nevertheless, in the following days (or rather evenings) I wondered how I could help Dan. I went back to my books and tried to find out how to put up a pragmatic approach for him.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<h2><span style="color: #333399;">The risk management techniques</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>I realized, that too often we focus our discussions and effort on putting up some risk management <strong>techniques</strong>. Should we use a matrix, or Monte Carlo simulations, or bow ties or, or, or …   and describe it all in a risk management process. Although this is an important feature, the techniques alone will not bring you further if you do not know how to use them and what to do with the information coming out of it. It is like building a house with having a plan only for the kitchen, and no idea on how the rest will look like. For which type of inhabitants has it to be designed for &#8211; a big family, or a young hipster couple?</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
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<h2><span style="color: #333399;">The tone at the top</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>Therefore one key discussion to have with the decision-makers is how will they use the risk management information. We could call it the top management <strong>tone</strong>. This is essential as it will also influence how much resources will be invested in that endeavor. In the case of Dan, the following questions should have been discussed with his management team:</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<blockquote>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em>Are we having a risk management process in place to fill some compliance gap? Or are we going to use it as a management tool to help us to develop and adapt our strategy in that fast pace changing global world where logistics is playing a more and more important role?</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<h2><span style="color: #333399;">Developing talents</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>To have this discussion, of course you could hire some consultants to help and support you in the development of a risk management program. The risk is that once the consultants are gone – like in the case of Dan – non-risk management experts are left with a ‘strange baby’ on their arms. It is important to invest in <strong>talent.</strong> It is therefore key to develop people at all levels so that the risk management is truly lived. That can be part of the mandate given to the consultants, or that can be a decision to train specifically one (or more) employee so that he/she becomes a part-time risk management practitioner.</p>
<p>Depending on the size of the company, you can also hire dedicated specialist(s). The challenge when hiring a risk management expert, is to find someone who knows about risk management and about the core business of the company (e.g. logistics). If it is not feasible, then sufficient time should be invested for the newly hired risk management guru to be taught about the core business of the company. This is to make sure that the risk management process will be proportionate to the level of risks faced, and adequate for the type of business.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<h2><span style="color: #333399;">The taste of risk management</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>Understanding the company and the strategy that a risk management process will have to support is key to make it effective. Let&#8217;s take the example of Kodak in the early 2000&#8217;s. <span style="color: #000000;">Kodak was all about creating memories by making &#8216;Kodak moments&#8217;, i.e. making analog photography. </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Although it had invented digital photography decades earlier, and despite knowing the disruptive potential of this new technology, it kept focusing on remaining number one in the photography market. How can we sell more? How can we consolidate our leading position? What are the risks affecting our performance? The company culture was all about being as performant as possible. Risk management was used to support the decisions focusing on efficiency and market share. It is one of the reasons why it failed to embrace digital camera technology and went bankrupt in 2012.</span></p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
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<p><img loading="lazy" class="aligncenter wp-image-8492 size-large" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/film-roll-3931400-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/film-roll-3931400-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/film-roll-3931400-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/film-roll-3931400-768x512.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/film-roll-3931400-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/film-roll-3931400-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
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<p>That example shows us that without the right working culture, the best designed process will never achieve to have all employees building an awareness of risk. It is likes spending hours on baking a beautiful cake, whose <strong>taste</strong> will be disgusting. This is probably the most tricky part, as it relates to the people, their behavior and attitude towards risk, and somehow to the company’s values. It is therefore important to consider those aspects when putting in place a new process: what will it <strong>taste</strong> like? What is the current working culture, and what is the desired one?</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<h2><span style="color: #333399;">We all love tools!</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>One final aspect to consider is what kind of tool is most suitable to support the management of risk. It can go from a basic Excel list, up to a latest generation software handling all governance, risk and compliance matters. You can find several rankings on internet on which software is best for your business.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>The fact that modern technology is creating so many opportunities to link people and business, and better understand business thanks to data science, probably explains why it makes the topic so interesting for all of us. You sit in your home office (or in a meeting room like it was the case before the pandemic) and get impressed by the capabilities of this new tool that nice people (i.e. sellers) comes to present you. And before you know, risk management is all about acquiring a new tool that will be able to automate many processes and make our whole business more efficient.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>One thing is clear, tools can contribute to make your management of risk more efficient and more effective. But tools alone, without the elements described above will not achieve much, and still cost a lot of money.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<h2><span style="color: #333399;">Final words</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>Last but not least, and coming back to Dan’s point about the unexpected pandemic, it is key for the risk managers to reflect on the last years and recognize that we did not help to better prepare our businesses for that crisis. The risk management expert community should ask itself why and how to get better for the next crisis.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<h2><span style="color: #333399;">The Five T of risk management:</span></h2>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>
<p><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<ul>
<li>The Tone at the top<!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></li>
<li>The Talent working on/with risk management<!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></li>
<li>The Technique(s) used to manage risk<!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></li>
<li>The Tool that will support the risk management process<!-- wp:paragraph --><!-- /wp:paragraph --></li>
<li>The Taste of managing risks</li>
</ul>
<p><em>We would love to hear your thoughts about this post and the following to come. It would be of great importance to us to learn what you would love to read more about, if you like our blog and would come back, and what you’d like us to write more about. Please take a moment to rate our post and discuss with us in the comments section below – or send us a private message.</em></p>
<p><strong>If you liked what you have read, please share this post and refer us to a friend. </strong><em><br /></em></p>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2021/04/29/the-five-ts-of-risk-management/">The Five Ts of Risk Management</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>Christian on Elemed&#8217;s Expert Corner</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2021/03/04/christian-on-elemeds-expert-corner-outcome/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=christian-on-elemeds-expert-corner-outcome</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Mar 2021 16:59:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=8455</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;re happy to announce that Christian has been a recent guest blogger on&#160;Elemed&#160;&#8211; a specialist agency for medical device experts of today to become leaders of tomorrow. Elemed&#8217;s expert corner is a hand-selected group of individuals that have been identified as top voices and thought leaders in their space. How a focus on outcomes makes &#8230;</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2021/03/04/christian-on-elemeds-expert-corner-outcome/">Christian on Elemed&#8217;s Expert Corner</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>We&#8217;re happy to announce that Christian has been a recent guest blogger on <a href="https://www.elemed.eu/">Elemed</a> &#8211; a specialist agency for medical device experts of today to become leaders of tomorrow.</p><p>Elemed&#8217;s expert corner is a hand-selected group of individuals that have been identified as top voices and thought leaders in their space.</p><p><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Elemed-Blog-Post.png"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-8470" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Elemed-Blog-Post.png" alt="" width="1024" height="512" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Elemed-Blog-Post.png 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Elemed-Blog-Post-300x150.png 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Elemed-Blog-Post-768x384.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">How a focus on outcomes makes you agile</span></h2><p>In his article <a href="https://www.elemed.eu/how-a-focus-on-outcomes-makes-you-agile/">How a focus on outcomes makes you agile</a> Christian describes how a focus on means &#8211; rather than ends &#8211; can lead to busyness in business that is often mistaken for effectiveness. Christian proposes three simple steps to zoom out and to put the desired outcome back into the focus &#8211; to allow for business agility rather than fragility.</p>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2021/03/04/christian-on-elemeds-expert-corner-outcome/">Christian on Elemed&#8217;s Expert Corner</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to be agile in times of change</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/12/01/how-to-be-agile-in-times-of-change/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-be-agile-in-times-of-change</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Nov 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision-Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkinbio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[agile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cynefin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stacy-matrix]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=8293</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Understanding the concepts of complexity is key responding to change in digitalization and to be agile.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/12/01/how-to-be-agile-in-times-of-change/">How to be agile in times of change</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>Maintaining social distance and catching up with friends is not exactly as great as it was before the pandemic. Having a drink or a coffee at the end of a hard day while sitting several meters apart on a rainy day in a park is not as great as it sounds. But it is nice to actually see a good friend in person again. It&#8217;s just so much better to meet&nbsp;with&nbsp;someone not just through the screen of my laptop.</p>
<p>The digitization allowed us &#8211; or at least many of us &#8211; to work remotely. Many friends of mine are in home office since February of 2020. Some of them actually never have to go into the office ever again. Digitization and collaboration allowed them to adapt a complete remote and virtual style of working though. Some teams made remarkable progress and could even increase their productivity. But what is digitization and digitalization really about?</p>
<h2><span style="color: #000080;">Teamwork makes the dream work</span></h2>
<p>Something that came to light during this pandemic is that collaboration and workflow is key to success. While there are many professions in which individual performance is key (such as performing as an artist or musician) big complicated projects can only be accomplished by a team effort. Working constantly together towards a common goal to deliver a service or develop a product that is valued by the customer. To say it with Jeff Sutherlands words in his book&nbsp;<a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/bookclub/#Scrum">Scrum</a>:&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">&#8220;Careful alignment, unity of purpose, and clarity of Goal&#8221;.&nbsp;</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>No one would disagree, but many fail to understand its importance. So let&#8217;s break it down.</p>
<h2><span style="color: #000080;">Understanding complexity</span></h2>
<p>Something that I always was suspicious about but only completely understood a few months ago when I came across the Cynefin Framework are different domains of problems in decision making:&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Simple domain</b>: cause and effect are obvious to the observer. Best practices work best</li>
<li><b>Complicated domain</b>: There is more uncertainty in the relation between cause and effect making it perfect for subject matter experts who can make predictions</li>
<li><b>Complex domain</b>: nothing is certain. Cause and effect are only visible in hindsight</li>
<li><b>Chaotic domain</b>: There is a complete absent of rules or they change regularly. There no value in understanding and learning from the cause and effect relationship</li>
</ul>
<div id="attachment_8365" style="width: 932px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Cynefin-Framework-2.png"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-8365" class="size-large wp-image-8365" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Cynefin-Framework-2-922x1024.png" alt="" width="922" height="1024" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Cynefin-Framework-2-922x1024.png 922w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Cynefin-Framework-2-270x300.png 270w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Cynefin-Framework-2-768x853.png 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Cynefin-Framework-2.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 922px) 100vw, 922px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-8365" class="wp-caption-text">Cynefin Framework</p></div>
<p>Erwin van Der Koog explains it in his remarkable blogpost <a href="https://medium.com/linc-bot/understanding-complexity-cf1771fa087d">Understanding Complexity</a> with games:&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Tic Tac Toe</b> or <b>Connect Four</b> for example are <b><i>simple</i></b> games: only a few very basic rules exist. You don&#8217;t need a strategy to play it but <b style="font-style: italic;">best practice</b> helps&nbsp;&#8211; like where you start or how to react. Cause and effect are obvious.</li>
<li><b>Chess</b>, or the Japanese game of <b>Shogi </b>are both <b><i>strategic games</i></b>. Chess has 10<sup style="line-height: 0.9; caret-color: #4d5156; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">43</sup>&nbsp;possible variations of the game (that&#8217;s a 10 with forty-three zeros!). These games are best played by <b><i>experts</i></b> who can <b><i>anticipate the next moves</i></b>&nbsp;and <b>d<i>evelop a strategy</i></b>&nbsp;to react for each of them. Those are games of the <b>complicated </b>domain. Determination of cause and effect is complicated and involve experience and prediction.</li>
<li><b>Poker</b> on the other hand is a game of <b><i>learning</i></b> about the opponent. Cause and effect are only obvious in hindsight when the cards are revealed to the table. The stronger hand will not necessarily be the winner. Poker can&#8217;t be played with best practices as they are likely to fail for a new opponent.&nbsp;</li>
<li>the last domain is <b>Chaos</b>. It is best described by <b><i>infinite games</i></b> &#8211; games where no rules exist or where rules are constantly changing. With known and unknown players and where it is the objective to stay in the game (great book: Simon Sinek&#8217;s &nbsp;<a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/bookclub/#InfiniteGame" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Infinite Game</a>). Wars, for example, or the business world in general are chaotic infinite games. Or as&nbsp;Erwin van Der Koog describes it: Playing with children &#8211; You just go with the flow.</li>
</ul>
<div><div id="attachment_8369" style="width: 810px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3.png"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-8369" class="size-full wp-image-8369" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3.png" alt="" width="800" height="800" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3.png 800w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3-300x300.png 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3-150x150.png 150w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3-768x768.png 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Stacey-Matrix-eng-3-100x100.png 100w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-8369" class="wp-caption-text">Stacey matrix of decision making in simple, complicated, complex and chaotic problem domains</p></div></div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>&nbsp;<span style="color: #000080; font-family: 'Josefin Sans'; font-size: 34px; font-weight: 600; letter-spacing: -0.01em;">Are you being disrupted?</span></div>
<p>There is another domain however: Disorder. Disorder is the result when decision making does not adapt to a new problem domain. When you fail to understand and to adapt to uncertainty but rather hold on to best practices and strategies that once worked. Why are so many businesses behaving like dinosaurs? Unable to adapt to a changing environment, slowly fading in significance. Unable to make an impact and to build on past accomplishments. Perhaps, once in a different world those companies might have been disruptors themselves &#8211; rendering other business models obsolete.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Disruption always occurs when someone or something gets into your decision making cycle causing disorder. When you are failing to make sound and informed decisions effectively. One of the main reasons why traditional companies fail to adapt is most likely due to digitalization.</p>
<h2><span style="color: #000080;">What is causing failure to adapt?</span></h2>
<p>Understanding the domains of complexity is probably at its root of (m)any problem(s). It all comes down to how one is understanding uncertainty and is able to find ways and strategies to react. Once you take a look at the Stacey Matrix it all becomes obvious. In the simple domain all was predictable. It&#8217;s like digging a hole. You know how to do that. You&#8217;ve done it many times before. This time it&#8217;s no difference. Best practices are working &#8211; at least for a while.&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span style="color: #000080;"><em>There is nothing more constant than change.</em></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Heraclitus 535 BC</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Technological shifts, customer expectation becomes unknown. Now things aren&#8217;t simple anymore. They become quite complicated, and even complex quickly. I work in a highly regulated industry &#8211; in life science. You can expect rules, regulation and guidelines to change often. This is making developing of products and services more complicated. Technological, compliance and safety matters are the domain of specialists and experts. &nbsp;At the same time technology shifts. Digital products are connected to actual physical devices making them cyber-physical. Those systems are able to deliver a new type of service or develop new business models. Now things aren&#8217;t even complicated anymore &#8211; they become complex. Failing to understand this shift of domain and reacting to it rather quickly and effectively is at the root of disorder.&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-scaled.jpg"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-8385 size-large" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-768x512.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/puzzle-cup-grey-background-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></p>
<h2><span style="color: #000080;">Uncertainty in change</span></h2>
<p>People are resistant to change because change always brings uncertainty. But I personally think that people are also resistant to change because they have had really bad experiences in the past. It requires not only an understanding of the scope of the problem but also a transformation of leadership.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dotag.ch/blog/dot.intern-vorstellung-julian-wild" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Julian Wild</a>&nbsp; who supported me with the preparation of a keynote made it clear:&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote>
<p><i style="color: #000080;">Delivering value&nbsp;</i><span style="color: #000080;"><span style="caret-color: #000080;"><i>quickly</i></span></span><i style="color: #000080;">&nbsp;is what agility is all about. But becoming agile means &#8216;being agile&#8217;: it is a mindset, not a method.</i></p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the next articles will look at two very important principles of agility: The value stream and the retrospect and show examples how to implement a smart way of working. Stay tuned and sign-up for our newsletter.</p>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/12/01/how-to-be-agile-in-times-of-change/">How to be agile in times of change</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to avoid the confirmation bias</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/10/30/how-to-avoid-confirmation-bias/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-avoid-confirmation-bias</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thierry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision-Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How to]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkinbio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cognitive bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[confirmation bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[informed decisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psycholigical trap]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=8267</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>One of the most common psychological traps you meet when making decision is the confirmation bias. We explore here how to overcome it.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/10/30/how-to-avoid-confirmation-bias/">How to avoid the confirmation bias</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>Beside the current pandemic, the main topic covered by the news these days is the presidential elections in the USA. What is particularly worrying this year is how divided the country seems to be. Actually, I found it very disturbing that by selecting the news channel you watch, you already decide which candidate you support. If you watch CNN, Biden is your man. Do you prefer Fox News? Then you will most probably be supporting the reelection of the current president. It has come to the point that these news channels no longer inform you to make your decision for whom to vote. Instead, they confirm your choice that the candidate you support is the right one and that the other candidate is the worst one possible for America. The same is true when reading articles or posts on social media. The algorithms will propose more articles, more posts, more news going in the same direction and supporting the same ideas. Your initial judgment then gets confirmed by more and more information instead of being challenged by opposite positions and arguments. That does not only prevent critical thinking, but can also distort your perception of the reality.  </p><p><span style="color: #ff6600;"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-8274 size-full" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-scaled.jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1707" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-768x512.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/front-view-of-usa-elections-concept-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /></span></p><p>This tendency to search for information that support your prior beliefs and/or ideas is called <strong>confirmation bias</strong>. It is an important type of cognitive bias that has a significant effect on decision-making processes as it interprets and/or favor the evidence you select.</p><p>How about business? Is it influencing your professional decisions as well?</p><h2><span style="color: #333399;">The choice of information</span></h2><p>Let us take an example that we have already used in a previous article (see <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/04/30/death-by-kpi/">Death by KPI</a>), the ice cream shop. Imagine that after having opened your first ice cream shop downtown Zurich you get so much success that you are considering opening a second store. In fact, you have already seen a great place available to rent in the trendiest neighborhood. You could well imagine yourself working there among the hipsters. Since opening a second store is a significant business risk for you, you decide to conduct a risk assessment to support your future decision. You start then to look for information that will help you to evaluate the risk of not being able to sell sufficient ice cream to be profitable.</p><p>First, you want to get a good idea on the business environment. You might ask the real estate company promoting the premise for some information on how attractive the neighborhood is. And why not asking the guy of the barbershop next door about how his business is going. You then look at the city council statistics to have an idea on the average rent price in that part of the city. Taking a stroll through the neighborhood, you see how busy it is in the evening. And the best of all is that there is no ice cream shop around. It will be a monopoly! The more you look for information; the more certain you are to make the right decision. Does it sound right?</p><p><img loading="lazy" class="aligncenter wp-image-8271 " src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-200x300.jpg" alt="" width="189" height="284" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-200x300.jpg 200w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-683x1024.jpg 683w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-768x1151.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-1025x1536.jpg 1025w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-1366x2048.jpg 1366w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/pexels-lukas-1352278-scaled.jpg 1708w" sizes="(max-width: 189px) 100vw, 189px" /></p><p>Actually not. First, the scope of your assessment already biased the answered. The question was not to open a second store, but to open a second store in a specific location. In other words you’ve already made the choice to open it there. The information you look for afterwards will most probably confirm that decision. The real estate agent is interested to rent that premise. He/she will not deter you to do so. Same for the owner of the barbershop next door. After all, empty shops are never good for business. Therefore, it is also in his interest to have you moving in. The statistics of the average price will confirm that you will pay a fair rent for the shop. Nothing else. And yes, the area is quite active in the evening, but do the people visiting bars and clubs want to eat ice cream?</p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #000080;">Do hipsters eat ice cream?</span></p></blockquote><p>In fact if the initial question had been ‘where should I open my second store?’ <br />You might have looked for different information. Maybe you would have used your own statistics to find out what is your main customer segment. You might have figured out that families is the category of people buying most of your ice cream. In that case, the trendy neighborhood is probably not the best place to open a new business. You could have then made a survey by your customers to ask in which part of the city they would like you to step in.</p><p>This example shows how keen we are to make decision based on our gut feeling, and start looking for data and or evidence afterwards to have the decision supported by evidence.</p><p>And by the way, if you have any doubts, hipsters actually eat ice cream <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/72x72/1f609.png" alt="😉" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/72x72/1f366.png" alt="🍦" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> </p><h2><span style="color: #333399;">How to fight the confirmation bias</span></h2><p>Unfortunately, like for most of those cognitive biases, there are no magic solutions. There are rather a couple of tips that one can follow to avoid falling in those psychological traps:</p><ol><li><strong>Stay aware</strong> about it. Keep asking yourself whether you are truly objective, or looking for confirmation. This not only apply for the information you are seeking, but also for the people you are consulting in your decision-making process.</li><li><strong>Change the initial question</strong> you are trying to answer. Make sure it is not framed. Consider whether you will look for the same information if the question is formulated completely differently.</li><li>Seek out information from a <strong>wide range of sources</strong> and look for conflicting evidence and opposite opinions.</li></ol><p>We would love to hear your thoughts about this post and the following to come. It would be of great importance to us to learn what you would love to read more about, if you like our blog and would come back, and what you’d like us to write more about. Please take a moment to rate our post and discuss with us in the comments section below – or send us a private message.</p>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/10/30/how-to-avoid-confirmation-bias/">How to avoid the confirmation bias</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to avoid psychological traps: the sunk cost fallacy</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/17/how-to-avoid-psychological-traps-sunk-cost-fallacy/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-avoid-psychological-traps-sunk-cost-fallacy</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thierry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2020 03:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision-Making]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=8221</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Would it have been cheaper to build Berlin's ghost airport new? We explain how past expenses adversely impact our decision making.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/17/how-to-avoid-psychological-traps-sunk-cost-fallacy/">How to avoid psychological traps: the sunk cost fallacy</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>We got a strange summer behind us. Most of us will remember spending summer holidays in a different way &#8211; certainly with some restrictions and constraints that we never thought of. On the business side it has been extraordinary as well. The tourism and aviation industries have had a very challenging summer. The autumn does not look much brighter. It is difficult in this context to find anything positive to write about. However, these exceptional conditions are considered favorable for the opening of the new Berlin Brandenburg Airport, planned on October 31.</p><h2><span style="color: #333399;">An airport without passengers</span></h2><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20181030-what-happened-to-berlins-ghost-airport">Berlin’s deserted ‘ghost’ airport</a> became world famous for its delay. But now the low level of passengers might actually allow a <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/berlins-new-airport-is-finally-set-to-open-its-future-is-up-in-the-air/a-53672964" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smooth start</a>. With the airlines recovering slowly over the next coming years, the modern airport should see the amount of passenger steadily increasing. One could almost think that this is an ideal timing for the launch of what should become one of the main airports in Germany with about 40 million passengers a year. That would be without considering that the airport was due to open 9 years ago.</p><div id="attachment_8246" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-8246" class="wp-image-8246 size-large" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BER-Airport-1-1024x571.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="571" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BER-Airport-1-1024x571.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BER-Airport-1-300x167.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BER-Airport-1-768x428.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BER-Airport-1-1536x856.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BER-Airport-1-2048x1141.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><p id="caption-attachment-8246" class="wp-caption-text">Berlin Brandenburg Airport is currently used as parking for all airliners stranded due to the pandemic</p></div><p>How could that have happened in a country famous for its engineering and its efficiency? Well, there is not a single reason for such a delay, but several. When supposed to open in 2012 (after a first delay), there were numerous construction flaws in the fire protection system, the escalators and the cabling, as well as a shortage of check-in desks. What started from that point in time was the ‘let’s fix it’ phase.</p><p>Each team was focusing on fixing the technical deficiencies individually to make sure each system works as planned. It required huge effort and resulted not only in several subsequent delays, but also in several changes in the management. Furthermore it uncovered several governance issues, but that is not the point here.</p><h2><span style="color: #333399;">The Sunk Cost Fallacy</span></h2><p>It seems (from the outside and with hindsight) that at no time the management team took a time-out to think about what is the best way to reach the final objective, namely having an airport able to accommodate millions of passengers a year. Maybe, it would have been cheaper and faster to tear down the entire construction and start again building from scratch a simpler, less hi-tech, terminal. Instead, the project management team focused on restoring the various systems to have them working as soon as possible. That made sense when considering how much money had already been invested in planning and execution.</p><p>This amount of budget already spent (or lost) is sometimes called <em>sunk cost</em>. In theory, since the money is gone and cannot be recovered, it should not influence our future decisions. In reality, people try to invest further in order to confirm that the initial investment was right. Research explains it by our natural aversion to loss.</p><p><img loading="lazy" class="aligncenter wp-image-8250 size-large" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/money-loss-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/money-loss-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/money-loss-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/money-loss-768x512.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/money-loss-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/money-loss-2048x1366.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p><p>For example, I remember the dilemma of bringing my old car to the garage to get it fixed &#8211; once again. It was troublesome as on a regular basis few things broke or stopped working. On the other hand, I could have just gotten rid of it to buy a new one. From a rational economic analysis, the second option appeared to be the best. However in the back of my mind, it was still painful to admit that I had already brought the car too many times to the garage (see previous article <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/06/18/how-to-deal-with-failure/">how to deal with failure</a>).</p><p>In business decision-making, this type of bias is known as the <em>sunk cost fallacy</em>. I recently found out that we could also call it the <em>Concorde Fallacy</em>, referring to another costly and tragic example in aviation. Basically the French and British governments kept funding the Concorde project for years although they knew there were no economic case for it.</p><blockquote><h5 style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #000080;"><em>Economists would point </em><em>out that the sunk cost fallacy</em><em> is irrational</em><em>, and could be described </em><em>as &#8220;throwing</em><em> good money</em><em> after bad</em></span><em><span style="color: #000080;">&#8220;.</span> </em><em>Cambridge Dictionary</em></h5></blockquote><div><h2><span style="color: #000080;">How to avoid the sunk cost fallacy?</span></h2><p>Unfortunately, like for most of those cognitive biases, there are no magic solutions. There are rather a couple of tips that one can follow to avoid falling in those psychological traps:</p><ul><li><strong>Keep your plan adaptable</strong>. Be it a project or a strategy; try to plan some checkpoints at which you will reconsider whether you are on the right course to meet your objective or vision. The difficulty is to find the right time for these checks: too early might not be helpful (as you do not have enough experience or feedback), too late might get you more prone to the sunk cost fallacy.</li><li><strong>Take a time-out</strong>. Especially when the stakes are high, take time to reflect with your team (or at least a sparring partner) on what is the final objective and whether keeping on the chosen path is still the best way to achieve it. Ask yourself and others the question whether you are actually experiencing a sunk cost fallacy.</li><li><strong>Recognize the value of the money invested</strong>. True, your airport (or you car) might not be working, but you have learned something out of that experience. If as a company (or individual) you are able to effectively learn from it, you might be able to save a lot of money in the future.</li></ul><p>In the next article, we will discover another type of bias similar to this one. And we will see how this could let the sorbet melt in an ice cream shop. Stay tuned and sign up to our <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/17/airport-ice-cream-and-psychological-traps-part-1/#Newsletter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">newsletter</a> to never miss an article.</p><p>For more information on large infrastructure projects in Germany, visit: <a href="https://www.hertie-school.org/en/infrastructure">https://www.hertie-school.org/en/infrastructure</a></p></div>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/17/how-to-avoid-psychological-traps-sunk-cost-fallacy/">How to avoid psychological traps: the sunk cost fallacy</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>What&#8217;s happening at Wisefoolstales?</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/03/whats-happening-at-wisefoolstales/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=whats-happening-at-wisefoolstales</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thierry and Christian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Find out what we have been up to and what our plans are for the months to come.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/03/whats-happening-at-wisefoolstales/">What&#8217;s happening at Wisefoolstales?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>The last couple of weeks have been a bit quiet on our blog. We used the summer months to contemplate and to be busy at work. We loved spending time with our families and friends and going on vacation. But we have also used the time to reflect on our blog and to plan the next months ahead. </p><p>Most of our articles have been attributed to general management, <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/05/28/how-to-become-more-productive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">becoming more productive</a> and <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/06/18/how-to-deal-with-failure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dealing with failure</a> (just to name a few). These topics are very close to us in our daily work environment. But we also wanted to continue to create specific content for our readers and that is connecting the dots. So we have have asked ourselves <i>What is our story line? What connects our articles?</i></p><p><span style="color: #000080; font-family: 'Josefin Sans'; font-size: 34px; font-weight: 600; letter-spacing: -0.01em;">Purpose</span></p><p>When we started planning our blog we attributed its purpose around tree main points:</p><ol><li>dealing with changes and uncertainty</li><li>making informed decision</li><li>being prepared for futures challenges (becoming resilient and flexible)</li></ol><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Embracing uncertainty</span></h3><p>Uncertainty and decision making are fundamental in our life. Without uncertainty everything would be pale and boring. Imagine you would have that crystal ball and could look into the future. What seems to be an amazing game changer in the first place would eventually lead to devastating future. Innovation would stop as no risks would be taken. Chances would be missed. Our life would come to a halt and nothing would be exciting anymore. We would lose hope as hope is fundamentally fueled by uncertainty. Why invest if you know how it will turn out already?</p><div id="attachment_8191" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times.jpg"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-8191" class="wp-image-8191 size-large" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times-1024x576.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times-300x169.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times-768x432.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/cearianty-in-unceartain-times.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-8191" class="wp-caption-text">When faced with uncertainty we need a beacon that provides guidance</p></div><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Uncertainty as a threat</span></h3><p>But uncertainty is also threatening. That&#8217;s especially true in the current pandemic situation. We are all craving certainty right now. How will the next months look like? Will there be a second wave? Will we have to go back to lockdown? How will the economic situation turn out in a year? How could we end up in this situation anyway? This and more of that is what is driving us to continue publishing.</p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Getting ready for the unexpected</span></h3><p>We all had to adapt our habits in the last months in order to keep our lives, and businesses going on. Some of those changes still appeared to be unthinkable at the beginning of the year (e.g. all members of a team working from home every day during the lockdown). Yet we managed to adapt over a couple of days only. It shows that we can change and adapt faster than we believe. It also demonstrates the resilience capabilities of our society. We believe that we should build on these positive experience to lead and manage the businesses of tomorrow.</p><p><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content.jpg"><img loading="lazy" class="aligncenter wp-image-8183" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content-1024x1024.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="450" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content-300x300.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content-150x150.jpg 150w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content-768x768.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content-100x100.jpg 100w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/insightful-content.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px" /></a></p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">What you can look forward to</span></h2><div><p>We will continue to publish more articles that help you make informed choices and strategies. We are also working on a dedicated section where you get exclusive access to <b>practicable tools</b>, such as <b>spreadsheets, templates</b> and <b>guidance.</b> We show you how to <b>assess and manage risks</b> in any situation &#8211; e.g. in project management, business strategies or product development. We will look at how <b>internal</b> and <b>external context of an organization</b> is impacting its strategy and how the <b>organizational culture</b> might eat that strategy for breakfast. </p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #000080;"><i>These insights will help to increase your chance of success</i></span></p></blockquote></div><div><p>But that&#8217;s not all. We plan to continue to develop our page and be more present on social media (follow us on <a href="http://instagram.com/wisefoolstales/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/wisefoolstales/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LinkedIn</a> ). We will also work on Newsletter exclusives (so make sure you sign up for it) to let you know what is going on behind the scene. For instance we are planning a couple of surprises towards for the winter&#8230; </p><p>So stay tuned for some exciting content in the upcoming months.</p></div>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/09/03/whats-happening-at-wisefoolstales/">What&#8217;s happening at Wisefoolstales?</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to run better meetings</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/30/how-to-run-better-meetings/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-run-better-meetings</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Bookclub]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How to]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Productivity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blogging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business meeting]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[how to run better meetings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[improve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lead meetings]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[meetings]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=8058</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Read in this article how you can improve your meetings in 7 steps.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/30/how-to-run-better-meetings/">How to run better meetings</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p><i>„Ah, I love having a day full of meetings!“</i>… said probably no one ever. Meetings are perhaps the greatest love-hate relationship since Tom and Jerry. The average middle manager spends around <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/07/stop-the-meeting-madness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">35% of her time in meetings</a>, and the trend is only increasing. That&#8217;s a full 1.75 days of a work week, or 80 work days in a year, or 640 hours. You get the idea! It’s a lot and that’s basically some big chunk of money being spent there. Clearly, when so much time is allocated to meetings then it must be and extremely productive use of time, right? You guessed it already, haven’t you?! I am afraid, it’s not. According to an HBR article <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/07/stop-the-meeting-madness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stop the Meeting Madness</a> &#8220;<i>only 17% [of senior executives] reported that their meetings are generally productive uses of group and individual time</i>“. </p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Why do we need to improve meetings</span></h2><p>Steven G. Rogelberg writes in his book <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/bookclub/#ScienceOfMeetings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Surprising Science of Meetings</a>, that meetings <i>&#8220;could […] actually be one of the largest unidentified line items in an organizational budget“.</i></p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #000080;"><em>&#8220;I can say with confidence that there is no other single investment of this magnitude that an organization makes that is treated in such a cavalier manner.“</em></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 17px;"><b>Steven G. Rogelberg</b></span></p></blockquote><p>That means we are spending countless of hours in meetings where only a small number of them seems to be productive. </p><p>When I started my career my first manager was barely at his desk. If I wanted to speak to him for only a few minutes I had to book this time in his calendar. His agenda looked like one of those mosaic floors. There were meetings not only adjacent to others but also double and sometimes triple booked. In fact, most of the middle and senior managers in this organization worked this way. There even was a joke people made:</p><blockquote><p><span style="color: #000080;"><i>&#8216;Hey, are you working today?‘ </i></span></p><p><span style="color: #000080;"><i>&#8216;No, I am in meetings‘.</i></span></p></blockquote><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Meetings are the killer of productivity</span></h3><div>In our article <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/05/28/how-to-become-more-productive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How to become more productive</a> we tell your that interruptions are really one of the killers of productivity. The problem is, meetings are primarily an interruption in our important task. This hinders the ability to engage in deep thinking, which has an impact in the quality of the work we deliver. It&#8217;s probably fair to say: </div><div><em>The more meetings you have, the lower your productivity and the lower the quality of your work.</em></div><div> </div><div><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/831-scaled.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/831-1024x949.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="949" /></a></div><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Why there are so many meetings</span></h2><p>One reason is it takes only a few clicks to schedule a meeting. It also does not help that the default meeting time for most office softwares is 60 minutes (that’s almost 10% of most people&#8217;s work day). If you have heard of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Parkinson&#8217;s Law</a> you know that <i>&#8220;work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.&#8221; </i></p><p>According to Rogelberg’s research it also has to do with a change of values in organizations and society. As organizations are acting less directive, employee inclusion and empowerment result in an increasing amount of time spent in meetings. After all, we want to include all stakeholders in the decision making process. As this is admirable &#8211; as this is often the case when things go unchecked &#8211; they tend to go out of hand. Clearly, the prime concern should be to get the work done. If a meeting offers no support on it and even stands between you and <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/05/28/how-to-become-more-productive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">productivity</a> then its existence should be questioned.</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Banning meetings is not the solution</span></h2><p>If they are so bad, why not ban meetings all together?! Unfortunately,  it’s not all black and white either. The bring inclusion in decision making, give unity and are an effective means to distribute informational. But meetings are nothing but a tool (out of many) that are supposed to follow &#8211; or should follow &#8211; a specific purpose.  And as we will see further below it should not (only) be the purpose of the meeting leader but all attendees. Otherwise other more effective means should be considered.</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">A 6 Step guide to make meetings more effective</span></h2><p>As an attendee there are unfortunately not many things you can do to improve a meeting. You could engage other participants or demand a clearer structure, but that&#8217;s basically all you can do. However, you decide how you lead your own meetings. And while having an agenda is probably a good start, it&#8217;s by far not the solution at all.</p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Step 1: Prepare your <span style="caret-color: #000080;">meeting</span> and have a clear purpose</span></h3><p>Instead of starting with preparing an agenda, just try to answer a few questions:</p><ul><li>What’s the purpose of your meeting? </li><li>What do you want to achieve?</li><li>When would you and your attendees consider the meeting to be successful?</li><li>What input is required to make it successful?</li><li>How are you going to make sure you achieve what you&#8217;ve planned?</li><li>What could go wrong (e.g. key people not showing up, IT-problems, lack of engagement, information missing) and how will you prepare for it?</li></ul><div>By answering these simple questions you will get a clear view what&#8217;s the purpose of the meeting and how you&#8217;re going to achieve it. Then you can start structuring your meeting with an agenda. Instead of just recycling them from from previous meetings  you can actually now use your agenda items as some kind of a phase gate. By completing one item you and your team can move on to the next.</div><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Step 2: Honor their time</span></h3><p>Now that you have a clear purpose and made a plan you know whom to invite. But when you are calling for a meeting you are asking your attendees to donate the most valuable thing they have: Their time. </p><ul><li>Decide who really needs to be involved and who can be kept in the loop</li><li>Instead of extending the attendee list for political reasons inform stakeholders that the meeting is about to take place</li><li>Ask them for their input beforehand and offer to distribute the minutes of meeting to them </li></ul><p>By this you are not only valuing their input but are also honoring their time. You&#8217;ll be surprised how many will thank you for approaching them and are ok from just being informed. </p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Step 3: Be the host</span></h3><div>Rogelberg suggests to adapt a <span style="caret-color: #000080;">Stewardship mindset. To create that environment so everyone is able to participate. This is especially true for remote meetings. Active facilitation to keep everyone engaged is key!</span><span style="caret-color: #000080;"><br /></span></div><ul><li>Be a host: make your attendees feel welcome. By this you&#8217;re valuing their attendance and their time</li><li>facilitate actively towards the goal of the meeting </li><li>Be a steward: take ownership for the outcome of the meeting but also delegate items to your attendees &#8211; therefore you&#8217;re promoting engagement</li><li>Engage people and encourage them to actively participate. Also make sure to politely call out if someone is talking too long or is engaging in inattentive or distractive behavior (e.g. tapping on the phone or laptop)</li><li>Avoid HIPPOs (highest-paid person opinion) and Groupthink in decision making meetings (<i>Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that we have discussed in a <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/09/how-to-make-better-decisions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous blog post on decision-making</a></i>). </li><li>Use survey apps or silent individual thinking time to eliminate Groupthink</li><li>Find the most optimal solution in decision making with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Thinking_Hats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Edward De Bono&#8217;s Six Thinking Heads</a>. It is an effective tool in order to make effective use in solution driven of how the human brain works. It is adapted by various innovative companies worldwide (our dear friend to our blog Angela Heise is an expert offers coaching how to <a href="https://angelaheise.com/put-on-your-six-thinking-hats/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">put on your six thinking heads</a>)</li></ul><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Step 4: Why not experiment a bit?</span></h3><div>You know how the saying goes: <em>We&#8217;ve done it always this way.</em> That&#8217;s usually not the best way forward. In every company there is a culture that has developed over time. Why not spice up a few things by experimenting (maybe start with low stake meetings first).</div><h4><span style="color: #000080;">Walking meeting</span></h4><p>You might have made the experience that you had really good ideas and conversations durning a walk. So why not taking advantage of it and having a meeting while walking. It&#8217;s certainly good for the health but only ideal for a few (two or three) attendees. Also, it should not become a hike. Find some useful tips <a href="https://innovationmanagement.se/2019/06/07/7-effective-ways-to-rock-walking-meetings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p><h4><span style="color: #000080;">Standing meeting</span></h4><div>We all know how it is when we get comfortable in that chair. It is all too likely that some sort of cinema mood kicks in: Everyone is staring at the screen. According to Rogelberg standing meetings tend to be shorter with greater satisfaction. This being said, no one likes to stand for an extended amount of time, so keep it short.</div><p>Find more ideas for creative meeting formats <a href="https://innovationmanagement.se/2016/10/24/innovative-meeting-formats/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. </p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Step 5: Ask for feedback</span></h3><p>Feedback is the key ingredient to any form of improvement. Without feedback you will be left in the dark. Rogelberg mentions in his book and also in the article HBR article <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/01/why-your-meetings-stink-and-what-to-do-about-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Why Your Meetings Stink &#8211; and What to do About it</a> <em>&#8220;[&#8230;] that the attendees who are the most active are the ones who feel that meetings are the most effective and satisfying. And who typically talks the most? The leader.&#8221; </em></p><p>So avoid this pitfall and take time to ask for feedback. You can also use survey apps like <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Surveymokey</a> that already come with a <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/meeting-feedback-survey-template/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">meeting feedback template</a>. Here are some ideas:</p><ul><li>How productive was the meeting?</li><li>How comfortable have you been to share your opinion?</li><li>How can we make our meeting more effective?</li></ul><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Step 6: Lead by example</span></h3><div><span style="color: #000000;">Leadership does not have to start with big projects. Leadership is not exclusive to the those with authority. Leadership is like a muscle that needs to be trained. By following the 6 steps you will be actively facilitating and leading your meeting to better performance and efficacy. Not just for you, but the ones around you. By acting as a role model you are engaging in leadership behavior that can inspire others to follow. This will increase the chances to improve meetings in general and make better use of everyones time. This is the right way t</span>o <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/05/28/how-to-become-more-productive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">higher productivity and greater job satisfaction</a>.</div><div> </div>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/30/how-to-run-better-meetings/">How to run better meetings</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to make risk based decisions</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/16/how-to-make-risk-based-decisions/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-make-risk-based-decisions</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision-Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkinbio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[definition of risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[how to]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[how to decide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[informed decisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iso 31000]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[likelihood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk based approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[safeguard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=8024</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Risk management is an effective tool that can be used for informed decision making. We show a simple way how you make better risk based decisions.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/16/how-to-make-risk-based-decisions/">How to make risk based decisions</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>Every day &#8211; from the time we get out of bed in the morning until when we get back to sleep at night &#8211; we make 35,000 decisions. Many of the decisions are made consciously, but the majority of it is made subconsciously. We make decisions about which shirt to put on in the morning, how strong we like our coffee or if we rather prefer tea. Those are the type of decisions we barely notice and that have no potential to harm us. Only when the stakes are high we put more effort in evaluating our choices. </p><p>The process of this assessment is actually what is called risk management. We do it all the time and don&#8217;t even notice it. We make it when we cross a street, drive our car, when we buy a house or decide how to spend our money. We do it 35,000 times a day.</p><p>Take the story about Thierry’s friend Dan for example. Thierry described in the <a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/09/how-to-make-better-decisions/#ToGoodToBeTrue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous article</a> how his friend Dan tried to persuade him to invest into a business that later turned out to be a scam. While I hope you haven’t been in that situation before I am sure you can recount similar experiences in your life. The first step we do when faced with making a decision is to assess the consequences. There is always a favorable and unfavorable outcome. However, depending on our own values we judge the consequences differently and come to different conclusions. </p><p>The favorable consequence that Dan tried to persuade Thierry to believe was that his investment would be profitable &#8211; very profitable in fact. The unfavorable consequence however &#8211; that he probably did not focus on &#8211; was that he could lose a major share or even all of the money (that was what eventually happened).</p><div id="attachment_8034" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920.jpg"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-8034" class="wp-image-8034 size-large" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920-768x512.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/dice-1209417_1920.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-8034" class="wp-caption-text">You should only roll the dice if you&#8217;re happy to accept all the possible consequences</p></div><h2><span style="color: #000080;">The definition of risk</span></h2><p>The ISO 31000 (the 2018 edition) defines risk as follows:</p><blockquote><p><em><span style="color: #000080;">Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives.</span></em></p></blockquote><p>The <i>objective</i> &#8211; the target, aim or purpose &#8211; is the desired outcome one ought to reach. The <i>uncertainty</i> attached to this objective however is the <i>effect</i> &#8211; or consequence &#8211; it could have.</p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Upside and downside risk potential</span></h3><p>The definition of the ISO 31000:2018 (this definition was first introduced in the 2009 edition) illustrates how it is understood today that there is a <i>upside risk</i> (an opportunity to gain) and a <i>downside risk</i> (a loss). This comes as a surprise for many as risk has always been seen as something purely negative. The ISO 31000 definition now puts uncertainty in the focus and therefore attaches risk management to decision making.</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">How risks are measured</span></h2><p>Risks are measured by the <i>consequence</i> of the risk materializing (the effect) and in <i>likelihood</i> of it becoming an event. The (unlikely) upside consequence of Dan&#8217;s investment was to make Thierry filthy rich, but the (more likely) downside risk was owning just some valueless coupons and losing most of the investment. </p><div id="attachment_8028" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Risk-Matrix.png"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-8028" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Risk-Matrix.png" alt="" width="1024" height="768" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-8028" class="wp-caption-text">A simple risk matrix. The green low risk area indicates the risk appetite &#8211; these risks can be accepted. Medium risks (orange) should be treated and monitored and high risks (red) are best to walk away from.</p></div><p>You can see now that risk and opportunity have to be compared when making a decision. If the (downside) risks would have been well within Thierry&#8217;s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_appetite" target="_blank" rel="noopener">risk appetite</a> in order to achieving the (upside) opportunity, then he would have made an informed decision. Even if the risk (loosing the investment) would have materialized, he would still be very comfortable with his decision. That&#8217;s the reason why we buy lottery tickets. We accept the risk that the coupon will be a blank because in view of the upside risk potential the assessment is that it&#8217;s worth the try.</p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Assessing the likelihood</span></h3><p>When we reduce all the uncertainty everything that&#8217;s left has to be certainty. That being said, determining the likelihood of an event is where we usually get it all wrong. While lack of information and data is one reason for it, bias is probably at its core. We often make decisions based on past experiences (you know how the saying goes: &#8220;<em>We always made it that way,&#8221;</em> or &#8220;<em>We never had any problems with that&#8221;</em>). Unfortunately the past is not very helpful in predicting the future. That’s why it is so important to get a diverse view when making a decision. </p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Managing risks</span></h2><p>Managing risks is preparing for possible consequences before and after you’ve made your decision. You can put measures in place so the unfavorable outcome does not become an event, or you can chose not to accept the risk at all and walk away from the situation (as Thierry did).</p><p>Managing risk actually requires a regular reassessment of the situation to see if we’re still comfortable with our decision when things have changed. This can be because outside conditions have changed (like the economy or the marketplace), but also your internal values. While outside conditions are often more apparent, internal conditions are also regularly changing. They are at the core of whats important for you and determine the risk appetite. A friend of mine just recently sold all his stock when he became a father to his first born child. While he was happy to accept downside risks during his bachelor life, becoming a dad and being responsible for his daughter actually shifted his core values entirely. He became more risk averse as he valued stability over long term gains.</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Safeguard effects, or: why life insurance does not make you immortal</span></h2><p>A tool you can use to manage your risks is to safeguard them. When the risk event cannot be ruled out or be prevented you can still mitigate the impact it has. Take an elementary risk such as a fire as an example: While measures can be put in place to prevent house fires from occurring they can never be absolutely ruled out. Fires have devastating impacts on a wide range of our life. Most importantly on the health and safety, on the infrastructure, and on the financial situation. To safeguard the financial impact insurances can compensate on that. However, the infrastructure will still be damaged or even lost and, possible immaterial values and also human life cannot be brought back . That&#8217;s why life insurance does not prevent you from dying (as the name could suggest) &#8211; it only covers the financial impact for your loved ones.</p><p><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters.jpg"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-8033" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters-1024x685.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="685" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters-1024x685.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters-300x201.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters-768x514.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters-1536x1028.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/firefighters.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">How to make informed decisions </span></h2><p>Now you understand that risk management is actually nothing else than informed decision making. To implement a risk based approach you can start as follows:</p><ul><li>Have a strategy in place. Become aware of your personal values and act accordingly. Your values, vision, mission and strategy will act as a beacon when faced with uncertainty in decision making </li><li>Become aware that you are about to make decision. Spot the important decisions out of the 35,000 you make each day &#8211; the ones that have the most impacting consequences (positive and negative) and evaluate them</li><li>Gather information that could potentially reduce uncertainty: if someone tries to convince you with confidence but without presenting information that supports the argument then the outcome is highly uncertain. If all necessary information is available a decision can always easily be made</li><li>Assess the likelihood of the event materializing and compare possible alternatives </li><li>If you can&#8217;t rule it out make sure that you safeguard the most devastating consequences. Better be safe than sorry.</li></ul><p>To support this answer the 5 questions below:</p><ol><li>What are the (upside and downside) consequences of my decision?</li><li>What information do I have that reduces the level of uncertainty?</li><li>Are there other alternatives to the decision? &#8211; if yes, go back to 1</li><li>Are there possible mitigations I can put in place to reduce the likelihood, or to safeguard the impact (e.g. insurance)?</li><li>In view of the (upside) opportunity, am I willing to accept the (downside) risk?</li></ol><div> </div><div>Now you are ready to make your informed decision. </div>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/16/how-to-make-risk-based-decisions/">How to make risk based decisions</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>How to make better decisions</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/09/how-to-make-better-decisions/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-make-better-decisions</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thierry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision-Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkinbio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cognitive bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Groupthink]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[informed decisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[making choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overconfidence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=7987</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Even when we are unaware we make important choices in life. While one is always wiser in hindsight, we show you how you make the best informed decisions. </p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/09/how-to-make-better-decisions/">How to make better decisions</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>Over the weekend, I was talking with a friend – let us call him Dan – who has apparently become an expert in epidemiology. He explained to me that the risk of pandemic had been under-estimated by all experts despite clear indicators that were turning red, like for instance the unusual high number of cars parked at hospital in Wuhan at the end of 2019.</p><p>With hindsight, it is tempting to blame the experts who could not predict the Covid19 crisis despite &#8216;<i>obvious indications that something was going wrong&#8217;</i>. The same applies to the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, or the financial crisis in 2008 or any other major unexpected disruptive event.</p><blockquote><p><em style="font-size: 24px; letter-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: #000080;">One is always wiser in hindsight</span></em></p></blockquote><p>We call this &#8216;<i>I knew it would happen</i>’ phenomenon the <i>hindsight bias</i><b>.</b> It refers to the natural tendency that we all have to interpret events from the past with information from the present. For instance, I was late to book my summer holidays. Now with hindsight it is tempting for me to say that I did not book anything last winter because I thought that this corona virus would create serious disruptions to our lives.</p><p>Besides looking smart, this might distort my memories of what I actually knew or believed last winter. As I would keep repeating it around, I might even start to believe it myself. That could be a source of overconfidence regarding my ability to predict future events. After all, if I predicted that one, why would I not predict the next one?</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Overconfidence in decision-making </span></h2><p>In these times of crisis, what are we expecting from our leaders? We expect answers and confidence in a future that – we hope &#8211; will be bright again. The same apply for doctors. What would you prefer: a doctor that is unable to diagnose exactly what you have, leaving you in uncertainty; or a doctor telling you confidently that you have that or that type of disease, although it might actually be wrong?</p><div id="attachment_7999" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-scaled.jpg"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-7999" class="size-large wp-image-7999" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-1024x684.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-768x513.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/59-2048x1368.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-7999" class="wp-caption-text">Wouldn&#8217;t it be great if we would have the magic crystal ball the would help us predict the future?</p></div><p>Confidence is one of the most highly rated leadership behavior. On the other hand, too much confidence (which we call overconfidence) can be catastrophic and drive your business down.</p><blockquote><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000080;"><em>Give me a one-handed economist. All my economist say &#8216;on the on one hand&#8230;,&#8217; but then &#8216;on the other hand&#8217;. </em></span></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="color: #000080;"><span style="color: #000000;">Harry Truman</span></span></p><p>Overconfidence is when you are too sure that you have it right. Therefore, you do not consider other opinions and do not accept to be questioned. In fact, you consider that you do not need to improve your understanding.</p>					</div>
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				<h2><span style="color: #000080;">When it&#8217;s too good to be true</span></h2><p>Let us come back to my friend Dan, the newly expert in pandemics. A couple of years ago, he had found the perfect business to invest his money in. The return on investment seemed to be sensational. The business was ran by a renowned insurance specialist. When Dan tried to persuade me to invest, I was very skeptical. First, Dan had never worked in finance before, and within a couple of months, he had become a &#8216;specialist&#8217; showing me graphs on the performance of the previous years. Secondly, I had never heard about that company, nor that famous insurance specialist. And last but not least, <i>it smelt too good to be true.</i></p><p>I quickly thought of a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ponzischeme.asp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ponzi scheme</a>. Dan felt offended when I told him so. He did not manage to convince me. He did however talk several of his friends into investing. Why were they convinced? Because Dan was very confident, always optimistic and he is a good communicator. He kept talking about young entrepreneurs who had become rich themselves. He also referred to other acquaintances that had already invested in this business. Moreover, what was very reassuring was that if anything started to go wrong, you could withdraw your money instantly. That gave an illusion of control.</p><p>Dan did not get rich. He lost all the money he invested. Even worse, he lost many of his friends as well. The business he invested in turned out to be a pyramid scheme.</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Making decisions in groups</span></h2><p>During the last months, many of us had to work from home. I don&#8217;t know about you, but I missed the interactions with my colleagues. That probably confirms that we are a sociable species. We could even say kind of herd animals. This is also reflected in the organization of our work, where we often have to make decisions in groups, panels, committees, board, and so on… Thinking about Dan again, I noticed that he did approach each potential of his future investors individually. Why not having brought that topic to our group of friends all together? With hindsight, we could think that we would have reached a better decision together (i.e. not to invest). On the other hand, it could have had the opposite effect. With each member of the group feeling under pressure to put money into it.</p><h3><span style="color: #000080;">Groupthink</span></h3><p>One of the major issue with making decisions in groups is the phenomenon known as <i>groupthink</i>. To keep the harmony of the group, controversial issues are not raised, alternative options are not explored, decisions and statements are not challenged. It results in poor-quality of decisions and poor decision-making at all.</p><div id="attachment_7998" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups.jpg"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-7998" class="size-large wp-image-7998" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups-768x512.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Decision-making-in-groups.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-7998" class="wp-caption-text">Decision-making in groups can have a negative impact on decision quality</p></div><p>Several characteristics can influence the way a group thinks. Is the leader of this group actually welcoming diverging opinion? Is the group so homogeneous that actually everyone thinks the same? Is it tolerable to challenge decisions in that particular corporate culture? I still remember in September 2001, when a couple of days after the attacks of 9/11 Georges W. Bush made that clear statement:</p><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #000080;">&#8220;<i>You are either with us or against us.”</i></span></p></blockquote><p>That set the scene for the future decisions, where anyone starting to challenge decisions would be labelled as potential enemy. It is rarely expressed so clearly in business. However, I’ve noticed several times that challenging decisions is welcomed as critical thinking. However, by making it too often it can be perceived as someone not fitting into the team or even slowing down the decision-making process.</p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">Five ways to make better decisions</span></h2><p>To overcome or at least mitigate groupthink and overconfidence, a few good practices can help:</p><ol><li>Seek diversity in your decision-making group. By having different genders, ages and backgrounds around the table, it should generate various perceptions and allow the emergence of new ideas.</li><li>To avoid falling in the overconfidence trap, conduct a <a href="https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem">pre-mortem analysis</a>. It consists of assuming that the project or strategy you are working on failed. Then each group member is asked to prepare a list of reasons why did the project or strategy actually failed. Next everyone states a different reason until all have been recorded. It allows the participants to work afterwards on strengthening the plans to mitigate the potential reasons for failures. The advantage of that approach is that it allow a positive discussion on potential threats.</li><li>Learn from experience. When required to make a decision on a specific topic, make sure that you have the right expertise around the table. It avoids people to make assumptions to fill some knowledge gaps they might have. <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/01/the-art-of-giving-and-receiving-advice">Asking for advice</a> – which is not the same as asking for confirmation &#8211; is a sign of humility that will allow you to build your reasoning.</li><li>Another way to overcome groupthink is to assign the role of the devil’s advocate to one of the group member. Assign this role at the beginning of the meeting. This person is then expected to challenge the decisions and statements made during the session. Although it may sound a bit artificial, this is an effective way to ensure that a dissident view is considered.</li><li>To avoid that a charismatic leader dominates the discussion, he/she should speak last. All other participants should have the chance to express him/herself before. It allows more reserved and quiet people to be heard. One of the key element here, is to actually listen to other people’s views, and not just waiting for your turn to talk and make your point.</li></ol><p>As a final point, it is interesting to note that the higher the stakes, the higher the risk to be caught in a psychological trap like <i>overconfidence</i> or <i>groupthink</i>. Why? Because very important decisions usually require more people, more inputs, more estimates and assumptions. All those are making the decision-making process more complex and prone to taking shortcuts in the reasoning.</p><p><em>Overconfidence and groupthink are referred to as cognitive bias, which could be defined as systematic error in thinking. Scholars consider that there are more than 180 different bias. In a next articles we will talk about two other bias, using the example of the ghost airport of Berlin Brandenburg.</em></p>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/07/09/how-to-make-better-decisions/">How to make better decisions</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>Flash Boys, a Wall Street Revolt</title>
		<link>https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/06/25/flash-boys-book-review/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=flash-boys-book-review</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thierry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2020 22:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Bookclub]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Linkinbio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[book review]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[flash boys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael lewis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[spread networks]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://wisefoolstales.com/?p=7883</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>In Michael Lewis's #1 New York Times Bestseller a small group of Wall Street iconoclasts realize that the U.S. stock market has been rigged for the benefit of insiders.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/06/25/flash-boys-book-review/">Flash Boys, a Wall Street Revolt</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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				<p>I’ve never been interested in finance. To me it appeared as a world in itself with its own rules, its own jargon, its own stars and stories. When my colleague at work told me about a great book touching on high frequency trading, I wasn’t particularly enthusiastic to read it. Nevertheless I gave it a go. I didn’t regret it.</p><div id="attachment_7886" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/New-York-Stock-Exchange.jpg"><img loading="lazy" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-7886" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/New-York-Stock-Exchange-1024x685.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="685" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-7886" class="wp-caption-text">New York Stock Exchange, the world&#8217;s largest stock exchange by market capitalization</p></div><p>First of all I discovered how naive I was about the whole topic of trading. For me, when thinking about trading I thought of those screaming men, wearing colorful jackets with a phone in each hand. I had in mind the picture of these chaotic trading floors at the end of last century. Well, a lot has changed since then. Most of the trading is no longer happening on that iconic place on Wall Street anymore. I also learnt new terms like flash crashes, dark pools, etc.  And I heard from the first time something about Spread Networks. </p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">A mysterious project</span></h2><p>Well, imagine for a couple of minutes that you are a farmer somewhere in Indiana or Ohio. We are in 2009, and the country is going through the first economic crisis of the millennium. One day, you have a business man ringing at your door and asking whether it would be possible to bury some fiber glasses under your field. You accept, because they pay well. Then you are intrigued because it appears that the work is mainly taking place at night, with a lot of secrecy around it. Besides, instead of crossing your field from north to south, or west to east, they kind of dig it from south-east to north-west, not following any grid. You even heard from some neighbors that this mysterious fiber glass line did cross rivers in diagonal. What is this all about? </p><h2><span style="color: #000080;"><span style="caret-color: #000080;">Every millisecond counts</span></span></h2><p>Well, if you had taken a map of the USA, and had drawn a line between Carteret in New Jersey (home of the NASDAQ data center) and Chicago, you would have noticed that this fiber glass seems to follow exactly that line you’ve just drawn. Without knowing it, you would have been one of the first persons to know about <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/partner-services/spread-networks.html">Spread Networks</a>. This private company built the shortest fiber line (825 miles / 1330km) between American main stock exchanges. The project has cost over 300 million US$. All of that in order to reduce the latency time. Why? Because speed gives an advantage in high frequency trading. People using this fiber line, will be able to buy or sell a few microseconds before their competitors. </p><p><a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-scaled.jpg"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-7887" src="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-1024x591.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="591" srcset="https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-1024x591.jpg 1024w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-300x173.jpg 300w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-768x443.jpg 768w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-1536x887.jpg 1536w, https://wisefoolstales.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Flash-Boys-Reading-2048x1183.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></p><h2><span style="color: #000080;">A book for the summer</span></h2><p>Michael Lewis starts his book <span style="color: #000000;">with that little stor</span>y, which I still find incredible. Then he introduces the reader to several characters: a rebellious Canadian stock trader, a Russian computer programmer, a prominent American investor, and many more that he follows during the entire book. Thanks to his storytelling, Lewis manages to hook the reader on such a dry and rather technical topic. He also succeeds to explain with simple words how today&#8217;s market work. </p><p>Flash Boys shades a light not only on how the finance market works, but also on how our society has developed recently. It will make you (re)think the role of the state in regulating businesses.</p><p>Checkout Flash Boys in our<a href="https://wisefoolstales.com/bookclub/#Flashboys" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bookclub</a> and get it right onto your device. You will also find other interesting books you may want to checkout for your summer holidays.</p><p> Enjoy the read!</p>					</div>
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		<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com/2020/06/25/flash-boys-book-review/">Flash Boys, a Wall Street Revolt</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wisefoolstales.com">www.wisefoolstales.com</a>.</p>
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