This week’s Gazetinha sees Euan Marshall (@euanmarshall) round up the second round of the Brazilian championship, as well as profiling Europe-bound Gabriel Barbosa (or Gabigol, if you can say that with a straight face) and heaping more praise on Santa Cruz.

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The project is called Gazeta Brasil (which I’m not afraid to admit is a cheap play on Gazzetta Football Italia) and it involves yours truly speaking into a camera each week about all the latest Brazilian football business. We try to film at various interesting spots around São Paulo, like the excellent Mirante 9 de Julho, the Goethe-Institut (with their outstanding currywurst…) and the famous Paribar, and we’ve already got around twelve superb locations lined up for future episodes.

Check out episodes one, two and three and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

However, Daniel and I both have jobs and other commitments, so producing something that requires such preparation and production every single week was always unrealistic. That’s why I created Gazetinha, a concurrent series of simple, up-to-date videos to give you all your weekly fix of Brazilian football. Check out this week’s episode below:

Neither of us receive any sponsorship for these videos, so the best way to help is spreading the word and getting our content out there. Subscribe to our channel. Get your friends to subscribe. Get your parents to subscribe. Create an army of email aliases and get them to subscribe too.

Até mais.

When unable to watch the game on television, Twitter has overtaken radio as the best alternative.

At the same time, technology has changed what we pay attention to when we watch football. We are half a decade into what StatsBomb refers to as the Enlightened Era. Detailed statistics from football’s major leagues are now publicly available, opening up new opportunities for analysis. Via a free mobile phone app, any fan can keep up with how many passes his central midfielder is making, in real time, showing how many he has completed, whom he has passed to, what zone he has passed from and in what directions were the passes made.

On the whole, this expanded access to information is positive. It increases the knowledge of the average football fan and gives the best journalists the tools they need to produce even better work.

However, I feel we may have gone too far.

On several occasions I have seen people (fans and journalists) “watch” football matches with their heads buried in their phone, laptop or tablet screen, constantly refreshing their timeline or scouring for statistics. These people miss large chunks of the game and end up with pieces of extremely subjective data. For instance, using heat maps to deduce that one team is arranged in a 4-2-3-1 formation is, by itself, useless. To make any serious observation or draw a constructive conclusion, this information needs to be accompanied with observations on individual player functions and behaviours. Equally, to say that Team X had 60% of ball possession is futile without additional context. I fear we have stopped watching football, instead following it through other media.

If you have the luxury to sit down to a game of football without a deadline to meet, try watching the full 90 minutes, leaving your observations and statistics for half time, full time, or the following day. By all means, use your passing stats and formation diagrams, but use them to corroborate observations you have made throughout the match. Pay attention to the shape of each side, how they arrange themselves with and without the ball; look at individual players and their behaviour. Be your own director, don’t be a slave to the ball. And finally, when making your observations, do so with a pinch of salt. There is not always a strategical or statistical explanation for why one team wins and one team loses. Physics, psychology and biology are often involved.

A maior virtude do treinador palmeirense é seu conhecimento dos seus próprios jogadores. Tanto no Cruzeiro quanto no Palmeiras, foi abençoado com um elenco grande, cheio de opções, particularmente para as posições ofensivas. Certamente, isso facilita a vida do técnico, minimizando fatores como cansaço e contusões, pois sempre há jogadores capacitados no banco. Porém, quando todos esses profissionais estão aptos para jogar, o treinador precisa escolher as melhores opções para o time principal e, simultaneamente, motivar os reservas, deixando-os prontos para entrar a qualquer momento. Isso é difícil, ainda mais com o ego enorme do futebolista profissional, e é nisso que Marcelo Oliveira se destaca.

Não obstante, as equipes treinadas por Marcelo Oliveira não jogam um futebol atrativo. O Cruzeiro bicampeão mostrou alguns momentos de bom futebol, mas por causa das qualidades individuais de Éverton Ribeiro, Ricardo Goulart e Lucas Silva. Na maioria das partidas, ganhou com gols de bola parada.

No Palmeiras, também é assim. Na melhor fase da equipe alviverde na temporada passada, o time abusava de cruzamentos na área e bolas paradas, e ganhava graças à habilidade de Dudu ou a visão de Robinho.

O curioso é que, nas suas entrevistas, Marcelo Oliveira prega um futebol bonito – com toque de bola, sem chutões, valorizando a posse de bola e o jogo coletivo – mas o estilo apresentado em campo não corresponde a isso.

O Palmeiras de Marcelo Oliveira é um time desarticulado, com grandes espaços entre as linhas de defesa, meio-campo e ataque. Abusa de lançamentos longos, os famosos chutões, por não ter defensores habilidosos e seguros com a bola no pé. É raro ver o Palmeiras construir uma jogada com mais de três passes. E é assim, desde que Marcelo Oliveira chegou.

Eu não acompanho os treinos do Palmeiras. Queria, pois estou curioso para saber o que, exatamente, a equipe vem fazendo durante a semana. Os problemas de junho de 2015, quando Marcelo chegou para substituir Oswaldo de Oliveira, persistam até hoje. Não melhoraram, nem pioraram, são os mesmos problemas de 2015.

Em novembro do ano passado, o Palmeiras sofreu três derrotas seguidas no Campeonato Brasileiro. Com a pausa para as Eliminatórias para a Copa do Mundo, o elenco alviverde inteiro se refugiou na cidade de Atibaia, no interior de São Paulo, para uma semana de treinos intensivos. Ao voltar, nada tinha mudado, e o Palmeiras continuou jogando o mesmo futebol horrível que motivou a ida à Atibaia.

Além dos problemas de treinamento, o Palmeiras apresenta algumas claras falhas estratégicas. O 4-2-3-1 de Marcelo Oliveira é, na prática, torto e desequilibrado. Há um atacante pelo lado esquerdo, o menino Gabriel Jesus, mas não há ninguém no lado direito. O sistema alviverde prevê a troca de posicionamento entre Dudu e Robinho. Permite, em tese, o primeiro a jogar mais centralizado e ter mais chances de finalizar. Na prática, Dudu não sai na zona central do campo, e Robinho não consegue jogar no lado direito. Assim, os ataques do Palmeiras ficam muito previsíveis, enquanto o lateral esquerdo adversário tem liberdade para subir e apoiar o sistema ofensivo.

Além disso, a insistência de Marcelo Oliveira de jogar com dois volantes marcadores é irritante. No elenco palmeirense, há três jogadores – Arouca, Gabriel e o ótimo Matheus Sales – com a capacidade de comandar o setor defensivo do meio-campo sozinhos. A presença de um “desarmador”, nesse caso Thiago Santos, é desnecessária.

Being a clássico, the first half was overly physical and unsightly. There were far too many sneaky off-the-ball kicks, shoves, arguments and complaints. The referee struggled to keep a lid on the match, but thankfully did not resort to giving out too many cards.

Corinthians were marginally the better side by the virtue of defending intelligently. Neither team looked comfortable or effective coming forward. The home side’s defensive security was enough to win them the three points.

Corinthians took the lead after a comical error in communication between São Paulo centre-back Lucão and his goalkeeper Denis. With the latter expecting a simple back pass to his feet, Lucão made the strange choice to pass across the São Paulo goal. Denis could not get there in time and Corinthians winger Lucca arrived to score. The centre-back will surely take most of the blame, but both were at fault for not communicating.

Two-nil came from a second-half set-piece, with Yago escaping his marker to head into the net. Again, Lucão and Denis were the guilty parties.

As usual, Corinthians were compact and organised, but their attack needs work. Despite losing a host of their championship-winning squad from last season and having severe cashflow problems, Corinthians have managed to rebuild admirably. Playmaker Giovanni Augusto debuted in this match and looked threatening.

São Paulo have a promising side this season, with plenty of talent and an intelligent manager in Edgardo Bauza. Jonathan Calleri, their six-month loan signing from Boca Juniors, is extremely able and will be successful in Brazil once he settles. His movement was good against Corinthians, but he received poor service, with São Paulo insisting on trying useless cross after useless cross. Central midfielder Thiago Mendes, who has been the pulse of Bauza’s side so far this year, was quiet, constantly hurried by Corinthians’ busy midfield zone.

The most interesting aspect of the match happened in the stands. At the beginning of the second half, members of Corinthians’ largest torcida organizada (organised fan group) the Gaviões da Fiel (Hawks of the Faithful) unfurled four banners protesting ticket prices, TV giant Rede Globo, the Brazilian and São Paulo football federations, and state legislator Fernando Capez.

Being informed of the protest, referee Luiz Flavio de Oliveira stopped the game and summoned Corinthians’ captain Felipe to go to the fans and have them take down their banners. The Gaviões did take them down, but only briefly, unfurling them again later in the half. As all of this was going on, television pictures (from Rede Globo) did not show the banners, leaving the commentators with the difficult job of dancing around the subject while the game had been stopped.

Firstly, the censorship exerted by Globo and the football federations in trying to conceal these protests is shameful and frightening. Secondly, such protests from torcidas, groups that were originally created to defend the rights of supporters but have (in many cases) descended into organised crime and violence, are completely welcome. I hope the Gaviões’ counterparts at Palmeiras, Flamengo, São Paulo and other big clubs follow suit.

On the other hand, while this was going on, the home fans chanted homophobic slurs at São Paulo’s goalkeeper whenever he touched the ball. This is a shamefully prevalent practice around Brazilian stadiums and it is hard to think of any club whose fans have not been guilty of it over the past few years. But why didn’t the referee stop the game to get the fans to stop? Why didn’t the Gaviões bring a banner denouncing homophobia? Will either club speak out about it? Am I asking too much?

Robinho’s connection with Santos and their fans is quite spectacular. Having grown up in the nearby town of São Vicente, Robinho joined Santos when he was 12 years old. In 2002, his first season of professional football, he helped take Santos to the Brazilian title, an astonishing achievement considering the club had not won a trophy since 1984 and that their two key players (Robinho and Diego) were teenagers.

On loan from Manchester City, he returned to Santos in 2010 and led the club to two titles: the São Paulo state championship and the Copa do Brasil. Besides the silverware, Robinho’s second spell at Santos was marked by the arrival of a new generation of exciting young talent at the club. Under Robinho’s wing, Neymar and Paulo Henrique Ganso began to flourish. The following year, with Robinho back in Europe with Milan, Neymar and Ganso took Santos to the Copa Libertadores title.

In 2014, he was back home once more. At 30 years old, Brazilian football fans saw Robinho’s transition from lightning-fast forward to intelligent playmaker. Despite not having the same physical condition as his younger days, Robinho’s vision and reading of the game allowed him to stand out at domestic level. While the club hemorrhaged money and struggled to find any sustainable source of income, Robinho’s exploits on the pitch helped keep the wolves at bay.

Today, with more exciting talents coming through the ranks at Santos, particularly 19 year old forward Gabriel “Gabigol” Barbosa, was Robinho not tempted to return for a fourth time? One last hurrah? I’d imagine so, but I’m glad he turned them down.

Santos no longer represents a challenge for Robinho, it is his home and the fans adore him unconditionally. Furthermore, during his last stay at Santos he was owed thousands in unpaid wages. Knowing the club was going through hard times and aware of his own financial security, he chose to stay silent while his team-mates took Santos to court. This was a sacrifice he made as a senior player, but returning to the club after what happened would be very strange indeed.

At this stage, it is impossible to know whether Robinho will be a success at Atlético. He has joined a much bigger and more demanding club where he will need to prove his worth.

In 2012, Ronaldinho Gaúcho was in a similar position having joined Atlético. The following year he led the club to their first ever Copa Libertadores triumph, playing his best football since leaving Barcelona.

In 1992, England’s largest clubs split from the Football League and created the Premier League: a standalone organisation that operated with the interests of clubs in mind. It a short time it became the richest league in world football. Brazilian clubs, by comparison, can claim to hold even more influence than their English counterparts (five teams in Brazil count their fan bases in the tens of millions – Flamengo, Corinthians, São Paulo, Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama), making the need for an independent league even greater.

So why haven’t Brazil’s largest clubs gone off on their own already? In some cases, the presidents of said clubs are also complicit in the corrupt framework of the Brazilian game and believe the sport is Doing Just Fine Thank You Very Much. Meanwhile, other officials conform with the existing structure for fear of losing the political support of the dinosaurs that control things behind the scenes at most major clubs.

My article from last year dealt with a particular dispute between the Rio de Janeiro state football federation (Ferj) and two of its notable members, Flamengo and Fluminense. The conflict has since developed (albeit at a crawling pace) and both clubs are about to carry out, in part, the threat they made in January 2015.

Rivals on the football pitch, Flamengo and Fluminense have united to help create an independent, club-organised competition – the Primeira Liga (fittingly, “Premier League”) – which begins this evening. However, despite having promised to boycott this year’s Rio de Janeiro state championships, both clubs will compete in the tournament after all, using their first-choice players.

The Primeira Liga, also known as the (admittedly less catchy) Copa Sul-Minas-Rio, is a revival of the Copa Sul-Minas, which was held at the beginning of the 2000s and included the best teams from the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais. Flamengo and Fluminense, whose rebellion sparked the rebirth of the tournament, have also been invited.

A total of 12 teams will take place, split into three groups of four. The winners of each group (along with the best second-place team) qualify for the final knockout stage. The first round of games begins this evening, with the standout fixture being Atlético Mineiro against Flamengo.

Predictably, as it presents a genuine threat to the hegemony of the state football federations, the Primeira Liga has started a messy legal row between its member clubs, Ferj and the Brazilian football confederation (CBF).

Initially, with the CBF facing far more pressing issues of its own (former president José Maria Marin is sitting in a US jail, while his successor Marco Polo Del Nero is under investigation by the FBI) and receiving assurances that the clubs involved would not withdraw from their respective state championships, the national confederation largely left the Primeira Liga alone. However, this apparent fragility of the CBF has been preyed upon by Ferj, who is desperate to see the tournament cancelled.

Ferj’s president Rubens Lopes, in an interview with Globoesporte, was emphatic in his condemnation of the Primeira Liga, referring to the competition as “anarchist” and the participating clubs as “elitist” and “militiamen”. “They will only play [the Primeira Liga] if they really want to start a war. And war, my friend, only ends in casualties.”

Cowed by Lopes and his principal ally, Vasco da Gama president Eurico Miranda, the CBF signed a declaration on Monday which banned the Primeira Liga from taking place. However, the confederation’s threat to punish the participant clubs stands on shaky legal ground. The Primeira Liga was intelligently designed to have its first round take place in January, within Brazilian football’s pre-season. As a result, neither the CBF or Ferj have the authority to cancel the two opening matchdays, seeing as the tournament is technically non-competitive.

The likelihood of punishments being handed out to all 12 of the Primeira Liga’s members is also slim. The vast majority of the teams involved are major clubs in Brazilian football, including Flamengo, the best supported team in the country. Punishing these clubs would cause the public’s opinion of the CBF to plummet even further. As a way of demonstrating their influence, the clubs of the Primeira Liga have even begun mobilising their social media followings to rally behind the new competition and against the CBF’s decision, launching the hashtag #JuntosPelaPrimeiraLiga (United for the Primeira Liga).

Contrary to the title of this post, I do not believe this to be Brazil’s Premier League, at least not yet. There is still much to be done and no guarantee the clubs will be able to work together, as signalled by the resignation of Alexandre Kalil, the Liga’s first elected CEO and former president of Atlético Mineiro, claiming that five member clubs “plotted” to have him removed. Furthermore, for the league to gain any nationwide appeal, São Paulo’s Big Three (Corinthians, São Paulo and Palmeiras) must get involved. When compared to other parts of the country, the São Paulo state championship is still a relatively profitable tournament for its major clubs, despite having lost most of its credibility.

Either way, the Primeira Liga is a step in the right direction, while its timing (football fans are hungry for the season to start up again) and the quality of teams involved could make it a huge success.

• 27 January
• Criciúma v Cruzeiro (19:30)
• Fluminense v Atlético Paranaense (19:30)
• Atlético Mineiro v Flamengo (21:45)
• Internacional v Coritiba (21:45)
• 28 January
• América Mineiro v Figueirense (19:30)
• Avaí v Grêmio (21:45)
• All kick-off times in BRST (GMT-2).

Image credit: Nelson Perez/Fluminense FC

-H.G. Wells, The Country of the Blind

After a tense 1-1 draw away to Vasco da Gama on Thursday evening, Corinthians were crowned champions of Brazil for the sixth time in their history. Although they stumbled over the finish line somewhat, helped by second-placed Atlético Mineiro losing 4-2 away to São Paulo, Corinthians have been by far and away the best side in the country and are fully deserving of the trophy.

With three matches left to play, Corinthians have the most points, the most wins, the least defeats, the most goals scored and the least conceded. It is rare in any 38-game football season that one team can express such superiority over the chasing pack.

Tite, Corinthians’ coach, is the talk of the town. This is the second time he has won the championship with the club (the last time coming in 2011, preceding Corinthians’ Copa Libertadores and World Club Cup wins the following year), and it would be hard to look beyond him as the greatest coach in the team’s history.

His intense personality, hyperactive touchline behaviour and apparently innovative coaching methods have endeared Tite not just to Corinthians fans, but to supporters of other clubs too. After Brazil’s embarrassing 7-1 loss against Germany in the 2014 World Cup, he seemed to be the national team’s only choice to replace Luiz Felipe Scolari, and deservedly so.

However, his success overshadows his shortcomings. His coaching career pre-2011 was patchy, and his teams often employ an over-pragmatic approach that is not easy on the eye. Furthermore, his efficiency is based on hours upon hours of work on the training ground, something he would not be offered were he to get the Brazil gig.

H.G. Wells once wrote about a mountain valley in South America, cut off from the rest of the world, that had in it all that the heart of man could desire. The only problem was that the people of this valley suffered from a strange disease that made them, and their children, blind.

He tells the story of a man, “who had been down to the sea and had seen the world, a reader of books in an original way”, who happened upon this Country of the Blind. Discovering that all of its inhabitants were in fact blind, the man garnered aspirations to lead and command them, repeating to himself the old proverb: “In the land of the blind, the One-Eyed Man is king.”

Brazilian football is a modern-day Country of the Blind. After decades of inertia and a dearth of new ideas, the quality of the Brazilian game has suffered greatly. Tactical trends that dominate the highest levels of European football only arrive in Brazil four or five years later. For instance, the idea of high defensive lines is still unthinkable in domestic Brazilian football, with centre-backs long accustomed to playing on the edge of their own penalty box, leaving huge gaps in front of them.

Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of those involved in Brazilian football are desperate for something new. Tite, Brazil’s One-Eyed Man, went on a Pep Guardiola-inspired sabbatical in 2014, studying strategy and training techniques while spending time with Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti. He has attempted to implement these “new ideas” into his Corinthians team and has been rightfully applauded for doing so.

However, despite their overwhelming dominance in this year’s Brazilian championship, Corinthians are not a world-beating side. They are organised, well-drilled and, crucially, they do the simple things well.

This is not to take anything away from Corinthians’ success, but to criticise their opposition. That simply making fewer mistakes than their peers is enough for Tite’s side to become Brazilian champions says plenty about the quality of the rest of the league.

Tite may well turn out to be an elite-level coach, but he’s not there yet. And without competent opposition, he never will be.

Brazil’s 20-team national championship is nothing if not competitive. Since 2003, when the league adopted its 38-game season format (doing away with playoffs), Brazil has had six different champions. The English Premier League has had only five different champions since its inception in 1992, and to find six distinct title winners in Spain one would have to go back to 1983.

The reason for such diversity can be attributed to the geography of Brazilian football. While major European countries have a handful of dominant teams spread across one or two football centres, Brazil’s continental size and population mean the country has 12 clubs considered grandes. Four from Rio de Janeiro (Flamengo, Fluminense, Vasco da Gama and Botafogo), four from São Paulo (Corinthians, São Paulo, Palmeiras, Santos) and the big two from Belo Horizonte (Atlético Mineiro and Cruzeiro) and Porto Alegre (Grêmio and Internacional).

Supporters of the Dominant Dozen are used to fighting over state titles with their local rivals and bring this inflated expectation of silverware with them when their team plays at the national level. With so many contenders under consistent pressure to win trophies and only one champion, the Brazilian league is full of intriguing title races and heartbroken fans.

This year’s early leaders were Sport Recife, one of the three major clubs from the north-eastern state of Pernambuco. Under then coach Eduardo Baptista they played an intelligent and organised style, backed up by the temperamental talents of Rio and São Paulo rejects Diego Souza, André, Marlone and Maikon Leite. They remained unbeaten in their first eleven matches and were still in the hunt by the league’s half-way point in August. By then, however, they had been joined by three of the Big Twelve: Grêmio, Atlético Mineiro and Corinthians.

In September, I wrote about the amazing turnaround Roger Machado has managed at Grêmio. Since then their momentum has steadily decreased, dropping points this weekend would be the final mathematical nail on their title hopes’ coffin.

This year’s Brazilian championship, therefore, will be won by Corinthians or Atlético Mineiro. With six rounds left to play, the former have a seemingly unassailable eight-point lead, opened up thanks to a 17-game unbeaten run from July to September. An Atlético win on Sunday would keep the race alive, though there is a sense it would only be delaying the inevitable.

Corinthians’ surge to the top of the league is made all the more impressive considering their situation at the beginning of the league. Knocked out of the Copa Libertadores, they saw their Peruvian international centre-forward Paolo Guerrero sign for rivals Flamengo and many of their first-team squad complain of unpaid wages. Head coach Tite, after losing 3-1 to Grêmio in early June, claimed the club were “taking a step back this year in order to take two steps forward in 2016”, suggesting they did not hold out much hope for the remainder of the season. They went on to quietly dominate the league, gradually working their way to the top. By the championship’s half-way point, they had a four-point lead in first place.

Whereas Corinthians have been consistent and efficient, Atlético Mineiro’s campaign has been turbulent and unpredictable. For the last few years, Atlético have specialised in playing an intense brand of football, suffocating opponents and fighting for every ball, spurred on by their noisy fans at the Arena Independência. This style, the Galo Doido (“crazy rooster”, a play on the club’s nickname: Galo, or rooster), comes in handy when playing at home in a crucial cup tie (or a decisive league match?). It took them to their first Copa Libertadores title in 2013. However, it’s not sustainable over a 38-game season.

This year they have tamed the Galo Doido somewhat, while still playing a high defensive line and creating many chances. They should control possession in Sunday’s game, with Corinthians content to play deep in their own half.

The idea of a high defensive line is still somewhat new in Brazil, where centre-backs are more accustomed to playing on their own 18-yard lines. As a result, there are few defenders who know how to play in such systems, often being easily caught out by quick counterattacks. Jemerson, Atlético’s 23 year old defender, is a rare exception to this rule. Tall, quick and intelligent, he is the reason Galo have not leaked goals at every turn.

Unfortunately for the home fans, Jemerson will miss Sunday’s game due to a suspension, leaving the creaking Leonardo Silva and Edcarlos to marshal the Galo defence. This is where Corinthians will look to expose their opponents.

• ATLÉTICO MINEIRO X CORINTHIANS
• Sunday, 17:00 (GMT-2)
• Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte (MG)

In the opinion of this journalist, the South American section of World Cup qualifying is some of the greatest entertainment available in the sport. Only the World Cup itself can compete.

The format of the competition is ideal. Ten teams are lumped together in one large pool, with every country plays each another twice, home and away. The guarantee of eighteen matches allows for the smaller nations to plan and prepare, not only in football terms but in financial terms. It is no secret that since this qualifying format was introduced in the 1990s, the quality of the national teams of Ecuador, Bolivia and Venezuela has increased greatly.

For the bigger nations, a sterner test of ability, squad depth and mental toughness is impossible. Argentina are guaranteed to play rivals Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Colombia twice each. They are guaranteed trips to the altitude of Quito and La Paz. South American sides arrive at World Cups with a profound knowledge of their own strengths and weaknesses.

Besides the practical reasons, South American qualifiers bring countless ties seeped in history. Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, the continent’s footballing pioneers, have been playing against one another without interruption since the 1910s. Chile, Bolivia and Paraguay came along soon after.

The qualifying campaign’s first double-header contains some mouth-watering ties. However, none of the ten nations will be at full-strength. These matches are an entree to the feast of international football coming our way over the next two years.

The highlight of matchday one sees Chile face Brazil at the Estádio Nacional in Santiago.

It will be the first time the two teams have met in competition since 28 June last year, when Brazil eliminated Chile on penalties in the World Cup second round. A lot has changed since then.

Chile returned home from that defeat with their heads held high and turned their attentions to hosting the 2015 Copa América. They stormed to victory, beating Argentina in the final and winning their first ever piece of silverware.

Brazil, meanwhile, lost 7-1 to Germany.

With few changes, one should not expect any surprises from Jorge Sampaoli’s Chile team. It is largely the same side that played both the World Cup and the Copa América. However they are without Bayer Leverkusen midfielder Charles Aránguiz, who tore his Achilles tendon two months ago.

While the plaudits in this Chile side usually go to Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sánchez, Jorge Valdívia or Gary Medel, Sampaoli’s playing style is bound together by the industry of Aránguiz. His role in the team is just as important as anyone else’s, if not more so.

In their recent friendly against Paraguay, Chile looked vulnerable without Aránguiz. Sampaoli is likely to use Arturo Vidal in a deeper role to compensate, but the box-to-box quality of Aránguiz is irreplaceable.

To further complicate things, there are doubts over the fitness of Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sánchez. Both will start, but are unlikely to be 100%.

Brazil goes into this qualifying campaign with public opinion of the national team close to an all-time low. From the 7-1, Brazilian football went headfirst into Fifa-gate. Former president of the Brazilian FA (CBF) José Maria Marin was among the nine Fifa officials arrested in Zurich. He is currently awaiting extradition to the USA. His replacement at the CBF, Co-Conspirator #12, has refused to leave the country since Marin’s arrest.

Dunga’s team got people’s hopes up with an impressive run of wins in friendlies. Against such opposition as Colombia and France, Brazil flew to 10 wins in 10. But when push came to shove at the Copa América, Brazil crumbled.

To make matters worse, Neymar is suspended for Brazil’s two opening qualifiers after his involvement in a post-match scrap at the Copa. The past year has been ripe with examples of the national team’s dependency on the Barcelona forward. In a recent friendly against the USA, after testing a Neymar-less formation for only 45 minutes, Dunga capitulated and brought on his talisman to play the second half.

Colombia, also disappointing at the Copa América, go into this qualifying double-header desperate to reclaim some of the euphoria that surrounded their last World Cup qualifying campaign. They face Peru at home this evening in the intense Caribbean heat of Barranquilla.

Colombia’s coach José Pékerman has been forced into making changes to his starting eleven.

The big news is that Real Madrid’s James Rodríguez was cut from the squad due to injury. His replacement is likely to be Atlético Nacional’s Macnelly Torres, a classic playmaker with wonderful vision, though he has arrived with fitness problems of his own.

Full-backs Pablo Armero and Camilo Zúñiga, ever-present during Pékerman’s reign, both miss out. PSV’s Santiago Arias will get the nod at right-back, while Frank Fabra should start on the left despite making his international debut only last month.

The most interesting change will come in the centre of midfield. At the Copa América, with injuries to Abel Aguilar and Freddy Guarín, Pékerman played with two anchor men in midfield: Carlos Sánchez and Edwin Valencia. Defensively they were excellent. When they faced Brazil, Sánchez silenced Neymar as he has done before with Lionel Messi. The problem was they had no players who could pass out of midfield. With no-one to step out of that zone and play important angled passes to their attackers, Colombia were left flat and predictable. They scored only one goal in the entire tournament – and that came from a set-piece.

Aguilar is still out, but Guarín returns. However, Pékerman is likely to ignore the Internazionale man and hand a start to 22 year old Gustavo Cuéllar, a sturdy midfielder who reads the game well and has a good eye for a forward pass. The fact Cuéllar plays his club football in Barranquilla with Junior also cannot hurt.