गोमाता के प्रेम और भक्तिका जो सबसे ज्यादा शोर मचाते है वो गोवंशकी परवरिशसे कोसों दूर है. वो जो दूध पिते है या तो भैंसका होगा या विलायती गायका. इसकी वजह है. जितनीभी देसी गायकी उपजातियाँ है उनकी पैदाश केवल दूध या केवल कृषिकामके नज़रियेसे नहीं हुई. साफ है सिर्फ दूध या सिर्फ कृषिकामकेलिए देसी गोवंश रखना नामुमकिन है. देसी गाय रखना मुनाफ़ेदार नहीं रहा जबसे बैलोंके बजाय ट्रैक्टर और ट्रक कृषिकाममे भारी मात्रामे इस्तेमाल होने लगे. गोमाँताके लाडले गवालियोंको गोमताके दूधके ज्यादा पैसे देनेकेलिए कतहि तैय्यार नहीं होंगे. जाहिर है उनका प्यार और भक्ति केवल पाखंड है. रह गयी बात गरीब किसानोंकी जो गाय और बैल रखते है उनके काममे हाथ बटाने तथा थोड़ा ज्यादा पैसा कमाने. गोवंश हत्या अब कानूनन अपराध है. इसका मतलब यह हुआ की गोवंश का अंतिम मूल्य शुन्य है, बल्कि शुन्य नहीं घाटेमें है. क्योंकि बूढ़ा होकर किसी कामके लायक नहीं रहनेपर भी परवरिश करना केवल  घाटेका काम है. इस हालातमे गोवंशका पालन करना बंद हो जायेगा. गोहत्या वधपर पाबन्दी लगानेसे गोवंशका विकास नहीं तो  विनाश अब अटल है. मोदीकृत भाजपा सरकारको गोवंशसे  सचमे लगाव है तो बेहतर होगा की देसी गोवंश को राष्ट्रीय प्राणी तथा संपत्ति घोषित किया जाय और सभीके पास जो गाय, बैल, बछड़े है उन्हे बाज़ार भावसे खरीदके सरकार की तरफसे उनकी परवरिश करनेके इंतजाम किये जाय. या गोमूत्र को डॉ राजीव दीक्षित द्वारा निश्चित किये हुए अमरीकी डॉलर १२०० प्रति लीटर की भावसे हर एकसे ख़रीदा जाये. किसान और  गवलिये गोबर सरकारको बड़ी खुशीसे मुफ्तमे देंगे. फिर गोवंशकोलिए ना कानून, ना पोलिस या स्वयमघोषित गोगुंडोकी जरुरत होगी.

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गोवंश के बारेमें सोपान जोशीने लिखा हुआ दिलचस्प लेख यहाँ जरूर पढ़िए.

निचे है वॉट्सएप्प पर मराठीमें आयी विस्तृत टिपण्णी:

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गोहत्याबंदीला सर्वोच्च न्यायालयाने मान्यता का दिली?

(ले० श्री. मिलिंद शेटे, पूर्वप्रसिद्धी : सांस्कृतिक वार्तापत्र)

“गोहत्या बंदी” हा लढा कोण्या हिन्दू साधूचा, rssचा, नाही. ‘स्वदेशी आंदोलन’ हे अत्यंत तर्कशुद्ध यशस्वी आंदोलन देशभर नेणाऱ्या कै.ड़ॉ राजिव दीक्षित यांचा हा यशस्वी न्यायालयीन लढा आहे.

(एक मुसलमान कसाई महंमद कुरेशी ह्याच्या विरुद्ध डॉ. राजीव दीक्षित ह्यांनी गोहत्येच्या विरोधात सर्वोच्च न्यायालयातील जिंकलेल्या दाव्याची ही माहिती तुम्हाला उद्बोधक वाटेल. – प्रा० मनोहर राईलकर)

आपल्या देशाच्या शेतीच्या दृष्टीनं, जमिनीचा कस सुधारण्याकरता, राष्ट्रीय इंधनाची बचत करण्याकरता, प्रदूषण कमी करण्याकरता, स्वस्त औषधांकरता, अशा विविध कामाकरता गोवधबंदी आवश्यक आहे. त्या मागणीचा हिंदु किंवा मुसलमान धर्मांशी काडीचाही संबंध नाही. पण, हिंदूंच्या गटाकडून आलेली मागणी म्हणजे ती जातीय तरी असणार, नाही तर अंधश्रद्धेवर आधारित असणार, नाही तर तिच्या मागं काही तरी छुपा राजकीय कार्यक्रम असणार, अशी आवई उठवायची.  आणि उलटसुलट वेडीवाकडी चर्चा घडवून गोंधळ उत्पन्न करायचा अशी प्रथा गेली काही वर्षं आपल्या राजकारण्यांनी पाडली आहे.  कोणाचं वाक्य आहे, मला आठवत नाही. पण, बहुधा नेपोलियनचं असावं. If you can’t convince, confuse. ‘लोकांना पटवून देता येत नसेल तर त्यांच्या मनात विचारांचा गोंधळ उडवून द्या.’ मला त्यातल्या राजकारणाशी काडीचंही कर्तव्य नाही. पण, डॉ. राजीव दीक्षित यांच्यासारख्या एका अभियंत्यांनी तो कसा आणि कोणत्या आधारांवर लढवून अंती जिंकला, हे आपल्याला माहीत झालं तर बरीच अज्ञात किंवा दडवून ठेवलेली वस्तुस्थिती तुम्हालाही कळेल असं मात्र, निश्चितपणं वाटलं.

हा लेख प्रथम गाय और गाँवच्या नोव्हेंबर २००३ च्या अंकात प्रसिद्ध झाला होता.

कै.श्री. राजीव दीक्षित इलेक्ट्रॉनिक्स, दूरसंचार (Telecommunication), आणि उपग्रहसंचार (Satellite communication), अशा तीन विषयांतील अभियंता होते. यू-ट्यूबवर त्यांची विविध भाषणं ऐकता येतील. त्यांनी प्रस्तुत दावा कसा जिंकला हे समजून घेणं बोधप्रद ठरेल.

काही प्राथमिक माहिती: ज्यांना गाय कापण्याचा परवाना आहे, असे भारतात ३,६०० कत्तलखाने आहेत. त्यापलीकडे आणखी ३६,००० कत्तलखाने अवैधरीत्या चालवले जात असतात. (हे आकडे जुने आहे. यांत आता बरीच वाढ झाली आहे.) ह्या सर्वांतून प्रतिवर्षी सरासरीने अडीच कोटी गाईंची कत्तल केली जाते. ते सहन न झाल्याने दीक्षित व त्यांच्या समविचारी सहकाऱ्यांनी १९९८मध्ये सर्वोच्च न्यायालयात याचिका दाखल केली. वर्धा येथील अखिल भारतीय गोसेवक संघ व अहिंसा आर्मी ट्रस्ट ह्या संस्थांनी हा दावा दाखल केला होता. नंतर त्यात गुजरात सरकारही सहभागी झाले. १-२ न्यायाधीशांसमोर चालवण्याइतका प्रस्तुत प्रश्न किरकोळ अथवा सामान्य नसल्यामुळे तो खंडपीठासमोर चालवावा असा दीक्षितांचा आग्रह होता. त्याला तीनचार वर्षे न्यायालयाने मान्यता दिली नव्हती. आणि नंतर मान्यता दिली. आणि सरन्यायाधीश आर. सी. लाहोटी ह्यांच्या अध्यक्षतेखाली सात न्यायाधीशांचे घटनापीठ(कॉन्स्टिट्यूशनल) बनवण्यात आले. कसायांच्या बाजूने दावा लढवण्याकरता लक्षावधींचं शुल्क घेणारे नामवंत अधिवक्ते उभे होते.,

सोली सोराबजी ₹२० लक्ष, कपिल सिब्बल ₹२२ लक्ष, महेश जेठमलानी (राम  जेठमलानींचे पुत्र) ₹३२ ते ३४ लक्ष. हे कसायांच्या बाजूने उभे होते. राजीव दीक्षितांच्या बाजूने दावा लढवण्याकरता एकही मोठा अधिवक्ता नव्हता.  कारण त्यांचे शुल्क देण्याइतका पैसा त्यांच्याकडे नव्हता.  दीक्षितांनी न्यायाधीशांना विचारले, “आमच्याकडे कोणीही अधिवक्ता नाही, आम्ही काय करावे ते सांगावे.”  न्यायाधीशांनी विचारले, “आम्ही आपल्याला अधिवक्ता पुरवला तर?” दीक्षित म्हणाले, “मोठेच उपकार होतील.”  त्याप्रमाणे न्यायालयाने मान्यता दिली आणि दाव्याला सुरुवात झाली. गाय कापण्याबद्दल कसायांनी जे प्रतिपादन केले ते सर्व विचार पूर्वी शरद पवारांनीही मांडले होते. ते काही विद्याविभूषितांद्वारे आणि पं. नेहरूंद्वारेही सांगण्यात आले होते.

कसायांचे दावे :

(१) गाय जेव्हा म्हातारी होते, तेव्हा तिला जिवंत ठेवण्यात काही लाभ नसतो. तिला कापून विकणे हे सर्वांत उत्तम. त्यातून आम्ही भारताची अर्थव्यवस्था अधिक मजबूत करण्याला सहकार्यच करतो. कारण. आम्ही गोमांस निर्यात करतो.

(२) भारतात चाऱ्याची कमतरता आहे. त्यामुळे त्यांना मारून विकणे हेच सर्वांत लाभदायक होय.

(३) भारतात लोकांना राहायला जागा नाही. तर गायींना कुठे ठेवणार?

(४) गायींमुळं परकीय चलनही मिळते.

(५) कसायांनी केलेला सर्वांत भयानक दावा असा होता, “गायीची हत्या करावी, असे आमच्या इस्लाम धर्मात सांगितले आहे.”

दीक्षितांनी शांतपणे, धैर्याने व अत्यंत तर्कशुद्ध रीतीने त्यांचे दावे कसे खोडून काढले, ते जाणून घ्यावे. आपण आर्थिक दृष्टीनं विचार करीत आहोत. तेव्हा शक्य असल्यास मधून मधून काही टिपणं केली तर तुम्हाला नेमकी कल्पना येईल.

त्यांचा पहिला दावा होता गायीचे मांस विकल्यावर पैसे मिळतात.

दीक्षितांनी सर्व आकडेवारी 7न्यायालयापुढं ठेवली. एका सुदृढ गायीचे वजन तीनसाडेतीन क्विंटल असते. पण, ती कापल्यावर केवळ ७० किलोच मांस मिळते. एक किलो गोमांस जेव्हा निर्यात होते, तेव्हा ५० डालर    मिळतात म्हणजे रु. ३,५००. रक्त २५ लीटर, त्याचे १,५०० ते २,००० आणि हाडांचे १,००० ते १,२०० रुपये मिळतात. म्हणजे गाय मारून तिचे मांस, रक्त आणि हाडे विकून हत्या करणाऱ्या कसायाला अधिकतम केवळ ७,००० रुपयेच मिळतील. (आणि हे आकडे सुदृढ गायींच्या संबंधातले आहेत. म्हाताऱ्या गायींपासून इतकं उत्पन्न मिळत नाही.) पण, तिला जिवंत ठेवलं तर किती रुपये मिळतील? आता त्याची आकडेवारी पाहा….

एक गाय दिवसाला १० किलो शेण व ३ लीटर गोमूत्र देते. १ किलो शेणापासून ३३ किलो खत होते. त्याला सेंद्रिय खत म्हणतात. न्यायाधीशांना आश्चर्याने विचारले, “हे कसे शक्य आहे?” त्यावर दीक्षित म्हणाले, “आम्हाला वेळ द्या आणि जागा द्या. आम्ही हे सिद्ध करून दाखवतो.” न्यायालयाने अनुमती दिल्यावर दीक्षितांनी आपलं म्हणणं सिद्ध करून दाखवलं. ते न्यायाधीशांना म्हणाले, “आता आय.आर.सी. च्या संशोधकांना पाचारण करून शेणाचं परीक्षण करून घ्या.” जेव्हा शेण संशोधनाकरता पाठवले, तेव्हा संशोधकांनी सांगितले, “ह्यात १८ प्रकारची पोषक सूक्ष्मतत्त्वे (micro nutrients) आहेत. त्या सर्वांचीच सर्व शेतजमिनींना अत्यंत आवश्यकता असते. उदा. मँगनीज, फॉस्फरस, पोटॅशियम, कॅल्शियम, आयर्न, कोबाल्ट, सिलिकॉन, इत्यादी.” ह्याउलट रासायनिक खतांत केवळ तीनच पोषक तत्त्वे असू शकतात. याचा अर्थ शेणखत रासायनिक खताच्या सहापट शक्तिशाली आहे. न्यायालयाने ते मान्य केले. दीक्षित म्हणाले, “माझे वडील आणि दोघे भाऊ शेतकरी आहेत. १५ वर्षांपासून आम्ही गायीच्या शेणापासून खत करून शेती करतो. १ किलो शेणापासून ३३ किलो खत बनते. रोजच्या १० किलो शेणापासून ३३० किलो. (म्हणजे महिन्याचे १ टन) आणि ६ रुपये किलोप्रमाणे १८०० ते १९०० रुपयांचे खत प्रतिदिन मिळेल. म्हणजे वर्षाचे रु. ७०,०००च्या वर झाले.  गायीचे आयुष्य २० वर्षांचे मानले तर एक गाय आयुष्यात 14 लक्षांच्यावर उत्पन्न देते. विशेष म्हणजे ती मृत्यूपर्यंत, अगदी शेवटच्या दिवसापर्यंत शेण देत राहते.” सहस्रो वर्षांपूर्वी आपल्या शास्त्रांत लिहून ठेवले आहे की गायीच्या शेणात लक्ष्मी आहे.  आधुनिक शिक्षण घेतलेल्या मेकॉलेच्या मानसपुत्रांनी ह्या गोष्टीची टवाळी केली. त्यांना धर्म, संस्कृती, सभ्यता सर्व थोतांड वाटते. पण गायीच्या शेणात लक्ष्मी असते, हे तर वरच्या आकडेमोडीनं सिद्धच झाले आहे. त्याच्या उपयोगानं धान्य निर्माण होते. संपूर्ण भारताचे पोट त्यातून भरते.

आता गोमूत्राचा विचार करू. दिवसाला दोन ते तीन लीटर गोमूत्र मिळते. गोमूत्रापासून ४८ प्रकारच्या रोगांवर औषध बनते. एक लीटर गोमूत्र औषध रूपात विकले तर त्याची किंमत रु. ५०० होते. भारतीय बाजारपेठेत, आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारात ह्यापेक्षा अधिक भाव मिळतो. अमेरिका भारतातून गोमूत्र आयात करते आणि त्यापासून मधुमेहावर औषध बनवते. अमेरिकेत गोमूत्राची तीन पेटंटे आहेत. अमेरिकन बाजारपेठेच्या हिशेबाने आकडेमोड केली तर त्याचा दर लीटरला डॉ. १२००, ते १३०० आहे. याचा अर्थ एका गायीपासून  प्रतिवर्षी ११,००.००० (११ लक्ष) रुपये मिळतात. म्हणजे २० वर्षांच्या आयुष्यात २,२०,००,००० (दोन कोटी वीस लक्ष रुपये) झाले. पुन्हा गायीच्या शेणापासून मिथेन गॅस बनतो. आपल्या घरगुती सिलिंडरांत तोच असतो. आणि जशी एलपीजीवर चारचाकी गाडी चालू शकते, तशी ह्या गॅसवरही चालू शकते. न्यायाधीशांचा त्यावर विश्वास बसला नाही. तेव्हा दीक्षित म्हणाले, “आपल्या गाडीला आम्ही शेणापासून बनवलेल्या मिथेनचा सिलिंडर बसवून देतो. आपण गाडी चालवूनच पाहा ना.”

त्यांनी मान्यता दिली. आणि तीन महिने गाडी चालवली. आणि म्हणाले, “एक्सलंट!!” कारण, त्यांना प्रतिकिलोमीटर केवळ ५० ते ६० पैसे इतकाच खर्च पडला. आणि डिझेलला प्रति किलोमीटर ४ रुपये खर्च (म्हणजे सातपट) येतो. आणखी, मिथेनवर चालणाऱ्या गाडीचा धूर नाही, वातावरणात शिसे पसरत नाही, आवाजही कमी होतो. ह्या सगळ्याच बाबी न्यायाधीशमहाराजांच्या लक्षात आल्या. मग दीक्षित म्हणाले, “प्रतिदिन १० किलो शेणापासून २० वर्षांत किती गॅस मिळेल?” भारतात १७ कोटी गाई आहेत. त्यांचे शेण एकत्र केले तर देशाची १लाख ३२ सहस्र कोटींची बचत होईल. आणि थेंबभरसुद्धा, डिझेल किंवा पेट्रोल आयात केल्याविना देशाची संपूर्ण वाहतूक होऊ शकेल. तीही सातव्या हिश्श्यानं स्वस्त. अरब देशांसमोर हात पसरायची आवश्यकताच राहणार नाही, की अमेरिकी डॉलर देऊन पेट्रोल विकत घ्यावं लागणार नाही. आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारात रुपयाचं मूल्य वाढेल. ही सगळी आकडेवारी जेव्हा दीक्षितांनी न्यायाधीशांसमोर मांडली, तेव्हा, गायीची हत्या करण्यापेक्षा तिला वाचवण्याने देशाचा आर्थिक लाभ अधिक आहे, हे त्यांनी मान्य केले. न्यायालयाचे हे मत जेव्हा कसायांना समजले, तेव्हा ते संतापले. आपला पराभव त्यांना डोळ्यांसमोर दिसू लागला.

गोहत्येपासून ७० सहस्र रुपयांचा लाभ होतो, असे ते म्हणाले होते. पण तिची हत्या केली नाही, तर तिच्यापासून कोट्यवधी रुपयांचा लाभ होतो. आणि आजवर हे कुणी सांगितलंसुद्धा नव्हतं. तर पटवून सिद्ध करण्याची गोष्टच उद्भवली नाही. (आणि गायींची पैदास वाढवली तर आपण गॅस निर्यातही करू शकू. इंधनाची समस्या उरणारच नाही. वर आपल्या बाळांना अधिकाधिक दूध देऊ शकू.) मग कसायांनी आपला हुकमाचा एक्का बाहेर काढला. ते म्हणाले, “गोहत्या करणे हा आमचा धार्मिक अधिकार आहे.” त्यावर दीक्षित म्हणाले, “त्याकरता कुराण, शरियत, हदीस हे सगळे ग्रंथ आम्ही न्यायालयासमोर आणतो. गाईची कत्तल करा असे त्यात कोठे लिहिले आहे, ते आम्हालाही जाणून घ्यायाचे आहेच. गायींची हत्या करा, असे त्यात कुठेही लिहिलेले नाही, असे आपल्या लक्षात येईल. उलट, ‘गायीचे रक्षण करा!’ असेच हदीसमध्ये म्हटले आहे, कारण तीही तुमचे रक्षण करते. गाय मुका प्राणी आहे, म्हणून तिच्यावर दया करा, असेच महमद पैगंबर ह्यांचे विधान आहे. गायीची हत्या कराल तर दोझकमध्येसुद्धा जागा मिळणार नाही, जहान्नमध्येही जागा मिळणार नाही, असेही आणखी एके ठिकाणी म्हटले आहे. तर मग गायीची हत्या करण्याचा अधिकार त्यांना केव्हापासून मिळाला? विचारा ह्या कसायांना.”  तेव्हा कसाई निरुत्तर झाले. दीक्षित पुढे म्हणाले, “मक्का, मदीनामध्ये काही ग्रंथ असतील तर तेही घेऊन या.” मग न्यायालयाने एक महिन्याची मुदत दिली. आणि गायीची हत्या करणे हा इस्लामचा मूलभूत अधिकार आहे, असा आदेश असलेले असे काही दस्तऐवज असतील तर घेऊन येण्याचा आदेश दिला.

एक महिन्यात काहीही पुरावा मिळाला नाही. आता आणखी वेळ देता येत नाही, असे म्हणून न्यायालयाने २६ ऑक्टोबर २००५ला (बरोबर १० वर्षांपूर्वी) आपला निर्णय दिला.

ह्या निर्णयाची प्रत आपल्याला http://www.supremecourtcaselaw.com ह्या दुव्यावर जाऊन पाहता येईल.

हे निकालपत्र ६६ पानी आहे. तो निर्णय देऊन न्यायालयाने इतिहास घडवला आहे.

निर्णयात न्यायालय म्हणते, गायीची हत्या हा संवैधानिक अपराध आहे, धार्मिक पाप आहे. गोरक्षण, गोसंवर्धन करणे हे प्रत्येक नागिकाचे कर्तव्य आहे. सरकारचे आहेच. पण नागरिकांचेही आहे.

आजपर्यंत जी संवैधानिक कर्तव्ये होती (उदा. राष्ट्रध्वजाचा सन्मान करणे, क्रांतिकारकांचा आदर करणे, देशाची अखंडता व एकता अबाधित ठेवणे), आता गायीचे रक्षण ह्याचीसुद्धा संवैधानिक कर्तव्यांमध्ये भर घातली गेली आहे. 1998च्या भारतच्या अणुस्फोटानंतर जगाने भारतावर आर्थिक बंदी लादली. पण भारतावर त्याचा फारसा दुष्परिणाम झाला नाही.  अमेरिकेने याचा विशेष अभ्यास केला व भारताची बलस्थाने हेरली व ती नष्ट करण्याचा विशेष कार्यक्रम मोठया बजेटसह आखला.

भारताची 1. पारम्पारिक शेती, 2 . कुटुंब व्यवस्था 3. भारतीय नीतिमूल्ये या तीन गोष्टी नष्ट केल्याशिवाय भारत कधीच पुरता सम्पणार नाही. गोधन सम्पवणे, भारतीय बियाणी सम्पविणे, तथाकथित विचारवंत, मीडिया मार्फत कुटुंब व्यवस्था नितिमूल्ये सम्पविणे हा योजनापूर्वक कार्यक्रम सुरु आहे. गाईंची कत्तल हां त्यातला एक भाग.

हे फार मोठे षड्यंत्र आहे.

सर्वानी समजून घेतले तरच निभाव लागेल.

जास्तीजास्त लोकांपर्यत पोहचवा.

]]> https://satark.wordpress.com/2017/04/21/%e0%a4%97%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%b5%e0%a4%82%e0%a4%b6-%e0%a4%b9%e0%a4%a4%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%af%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%aa%e0%a5%87-%e0%a4%95%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%a8%e0%a5%82%e0%a4%a8%e0%a5%80-%e0%a4%aa%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%ac/feed/ 1 3034 satark https://satark.wordpress.com/2016/12/13/cashless-corruption-less-can-narendra-modi-arun-jaitley-answer-hoards-of-cash-in-%e2%82%b92000-notes/ https://satark.wordpress.com/2016/12/13/cashless-corruption-less-can-narendra-modi-arun-jaitley-answer-hoards-of-cash-in-%e2%82%b92000-notes/#respond Tue, 13 Dec 2016 03:09:47 +0000 http://satark.wordpress.com/?p=3046 Modi’s DeReMo {De and Re Monetisation} narrative shifted rapidly when facts encountered the fiction he spun. On 8th November DeReMo was sold as an “Encounter” of Black Money-75% {actually Black Cash} and Fake Currency-25%. He made almost every Indian, except the rich & powerful, queue up before the Banks & ATMs that ran out of replacement new currency notes very fast {even by 7th December, exactly 1 month after the DeReMo announcement, the situation has not eased out}.

Rural and small town distress was particularly acute. To make the pain bearable the narrative shifted within 5 days to it is a Patriotic duty of every Indian to face the ordeal with a grin: If soldiers stand vigil in “dangerous conditions” to guard borders 24×7, why can’t ordinary Indians do their bit in safe environs of bank queues just for 50 days to end the menace of terrorism. Hyper-nationalism was deftly sold: Do not fake currency and black cash fund the deadly fedayeen attacks like the one at Uri on 18 September? or stone pelting on security forces? Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar crowed on 15th November, “…there hasn’t been stone-pelting on security forces,.. PM has brought terror funding to zero,” and thanked PM profusely for the daring move {it is another matter that the stone pelting protests had already diminished in September and October but for the sudden eruption in Anchar locality on 3rd November}. The “Anti-Terror narrative” lay in tatters when new ₹2000 notes were found on two terrorists killed in Bandipora. The hyper-nationalist storm generated by BJP over Modi’s “successful” across border surgical strikes in Pakistan to destroy and demoralise terrorists was swept away by daily “patriotic queue-pain” of DeReMo’, when terrorists struck again at Army base in Nagrota killing 2 officers and 5 soldiers and thus underlined the failure of Modi’s twin “Daring initiatives” to neutralise terror {Incidentally, the devastating wars on Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria that US Presidents have waged in the name of Terrorism have proliferated terrorists not eliminated them; and the terrorists have already seen the backs of two presidents, Bush & Obama}. By 25^th November, Modi changed, like a true chameleon, his colours once again and DeReMo became principally the vehicle to deliver “Cashless or Lesscash” India. The “cashless” was front loaded  and corruption free economy back-ended because Cashless-ness had become stark and cruel existential reality for most Indians.

Does cashless economy necessarily mean corruption free economy? If the aim was cashless economy, why is Modi re-monetising economy that too with higher ₹2000 and new ₹500 denomination notes? Just yesterday income tax department seized ₹10 crores in new notes {and today another catch of ₹24 crores is reported} in Chennai that almost doubled it’s earlier seizure of 5.7 crores in Bengaluru.    There have been other seizures of lesser hoards elsewhere. When rest of the country is in turmoil due to severe cash shortage, how did these individuals manage to lay their hands on freshly minted notes in such large numbers? Such massive leaks could have occurred en route from RBI/Govt Security presses to RBI’s Currency Chests to Commercial Banks or from the two storage locations in between or finally at the branch level. Does Modi know the answer exactly where? UPA’s two “grand initiatives”, Aadhaar Card to provide unique biometric identity to every Indian and Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) to seed targeted beneficiary accounts through cashless-cash, were appropriated by Modi almost immediately on ascending to power. The purported gameplay was that shift to banking channels to transmit money to Aadhaar Linked A/c would put an end to the legendary corruption in the government machinery, which plagued the physical delivery channels like PDS, Fertiliser or cooking gas subsidies and cash payment to MNREGA workers. However, the banking channels look increasingly compromised too with hoards of new currency seized so far and therefore untrustworthy to safe keep the money of crores of illiterate, semiliterate, poor Indians whom Modi wishes to turn cashless metaphorically {literally he has already made his mark}. Estimates of black cash vary from a low of ₹1.5lakh-crore to Team-Modi’s estimate of ₹5lakh-crore. Income Tax department made a “record” seizure of ₹254 crore in cash in the first 7 months of 2016 during searches and raids, which is barely 0.16% to 0.05% of the black cash estimates. That means the quantum of new notes, which have leaked into influential grasping hands, must be much larger than the capacity of taxman to seize. Even before crores of Indians are adequately seeded with cash, the generation of black cash in new currency notes has already started in right earnest.

Cashless, Corruption-Less.

Does Cashless necessarily translates to Corruption-Less? Is going Cashless necessary and sufficient condition for a corruption free society as Modi is claiming? One needs to be wary of indexes prepared by putatively independent and unbiased NGOs and think tanks because they often have strong ideological commitment and are funded by superrich to serve latter’s hidden agendas. Biases also creep into the research design and methodology, which can significantly affect outcomes and rankings. Yet, many of the global studies emanate from these very organisations and one has to rely on them for some kind of “objective criteria” in the absence of any other. Transparency International prepares the corruption “perception” index (CPI), which is widely publicised and accepted as authoritative. The estimation of cashless consumer transactions (CCT) was done by Master Card, which suffers from conflict of interest as it wants to promote 100% CCT along with others like Visa, Global Banks and Payment gateways, who all would be major beneficiaries of cashless society along with consumer marketing giants. Take a look at the following table that shows CCT%, CPI-Rank and Macro-Economic Prerequisites Score (MPSC) to go Cashless for 34 countries.

(0) The highest rank in cashless transactions in held by Singapore, but it still uses cash for 39% of consumer transactions.

(1) If one takes India’s readiness to go cashless, then among the countries with comparable CCT (1% or 2%) Saudi Arabia (MPSC=57Score,CPI=48Rank), Malaysia (56S,54R) and Thailand (48S,76R) are far better placed than India (29S,76R) for conversion to digital money. Brazil with 43 MPSC score is not only better placed to go cashless, but already does 15% CCT or 7 times more than India. But still is perceived to be equally corrupt.

(2) Sweden (CCT=59%,CPI=3R), Netherlands (60%,5R) & Canada (57%, 9R) have comparable CCT% to France (59%,23R) and their cultural affinity would be significant; yet France does poorly on CPI in comparison. Canada (MPSC=91) is best prepared to go cashless, but still has over 40% cash-transactions. UAE (8%, 23R) has just 1/7^th of France’s CCT, but is still reckoned to be not more corrupt.

(3) Two oriental economies, second largest China (CCT=10%,CPI=83R) and third largest Japan (14%,18R), both use cash in more than 85% consumer transactions but have widely different outcomes on CPI.  Japan’s CCT% is 1/4^th of France, yet it fares better on CPI than France (CPI=23). This (and Singapore CPI=8) blows the myth that Asians are corrupt unlike western Europeans.

This also blows holes in the theory that going cashless helps remove or minimise corruption. There are countries with more cashless transaction but still with higher corruption index. Conversely, there are countries with heavy reliance on cash-based transaction, but still have low level of perceived corruption. Therefore,  “cashless” transactions are neither Sufficient nor Necessary conditions to  remove or reduce corruption. Yet, Modi’s desperation is evident when he roped in Nandan Nilkeni, Congress’s Tsar of Aadhaar (UIDAI), to realise his “dream of cashless economy”. Nilkeni’s UIDAI project enriched Foreign and Indian Digital service providers through lucrative contracts and now he has a chance to encash “Cashless-project”: “Earlier in the week, Nilekani had also appreciated Prime Minister’s demonetisation move and said that it would see a massive activation of digitisation of financial services in the country. “… what would have taken another 3-6 years to get rolled out, I now believe because of the urgency of the matter, will happen in 3-6 months,” ”.  Modi & Nilkeni seem to be familiar with Naomi Klein’s seminal book: “The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism”. Modi has administered the DeReMo shock that has left people thoroughly bewildered. The field is now open to Nilkeni to impose Cashless transition before people realise what is really going on. Would it work? What are the risks?

(a) India is woefully ill prepared for transition to cashless society. Access to necessary infrastructure, that is digital connectivity/necessary equipment, especially in rural areas and small towns, is woefully inadequate and unreliable. For example, Uttar Pradesh has only double the number of ATMs than Delhi that have to serve 20 times more population spread over an area that is 160+ times larger. {Read: 5 Hurdles To PM’s Push For Cashless Economy, 4 Indicators Of India’s Cashless Growth–And Hurdles To Future Expansion}

(b) When one shifts the physical world to cyber world, one gets matching cyber crimes too. Highly educated and technology savvy people too have fallen prey to cyber frauds. A Padma-awardee and retired director of IIT-Kanpur lost ₹19 lacs, his entire life savings, in 22 fraudulent transactions over 2 days three years ago from his ICICI bank account. The case has remained unsolved. The biggest cyber heist took place early this year that aimed to siphon off close to $1billion out of (Central) Bangladesh Bank’s Nostro a/c with New York Federal Reserve, but mercifully only $101million worth of 5 “orders” were executed before Fed blocked remainder 30 transfers; one order was not executed due to spelling errors in beneficiary’s name and therefore net loss was “modest’” $81 million.  Cyber crimes in 2015 rocketed to 11,592 cases in India than over a decade ago; some 3855 cases rose out of greed. The unholy haste to shift very large numbers of literacy, especially cyber-literacy challenged people to cashless gateway would provide an easy and lucrative prey base to cyber predators. 3 callcenters in Mumbai scammed US-residents of ₹500 crores posing as IRS personnel. It was discovered thanks only to a tipoff from disgruntled employee. Cashless push would result in scams getting larger and wider in India. Police are as it is ill-equipped and ill-trained for crime-investigation: such as thefts,  robberies or homicides. When the arena shifts to cyber world, they would have to deal with highly sophisticated criminals with little idea of how to do it.

(c) Payee of Debit/Credit card or merchant-sites that debit bank a/c of buyer with latter’s concurrence have to pay a “convenience” fee for every time, which is a % of the value transactions, to the card issuing bank and the gateway providers like Visa, Master, ₹Pay, Bill-Desk or Tech-Process. On the other hand payer bears the fees charged for NEFT/RTGS transfers. When making high value purchases on card, like for gold or jewellery or diamonds, or fuel, the payee would add the convenience fee she bears to the value of purchases. Thus there is a definite cost to cashless transactions, which would ultimately reflect in the price charged for goods or services. Government too charges Service-Tax on service charges levied. Such transaction charges are akin to a Cashless Transaction Tax (CTT) collected by intermediaries much like the Banking Transaction Tax (BTT) proposed by Arthakranti, which too is levied on receiving/ credit accounts. But BTT proposed by Arthakranti in it’s scheme of things was in lieu of all other direct and indirect taxes save except the custom duties imposed on India’s external Trade. CTT would be in addition to existing taxes thus increasing the tax-burden.

(d) Savings held in cash also act as an emergency buffer against unforeseen calamities. Natural disasters, manmade disasters such as war/ terrorist attacks, or financial gridlock like it happened at the height of 2008 Great Recession in USA, have the potential to bring the Cashless system to a grinding halt. When such calamity strikes, it is these cash savings that can save families to tide over the immediate difficulties. That is the reason families hold on to some cash in most countries around the world. Confiscating that emergency buffer would be a sadistic assault on life. Poor people suffer far more in such situations because they have tiny or nil emergency buffers: may be in cash or in daily provisions.

Though people are trying to cope with their resilience and innate intelligence, many sections of economy have been devastated by removal of 86% cash at one stroke. Money circulates through economy to keep commerce moving much like blood moves through body to provide oxygen. Economy is facing the same severe shock that a person would face if he had a massive blood loss. There are no precedents that can guide as to how all this is going to end. However, indications available do not portend well. Modi vouches by helping poor, but the informal sectors where they earn their livelihood are hit the hardest. RBI’s Development Research Group in 2013 had said that with every percent rise in GDP the cash demand goes up 1.38 percent. Would the relationship work in reverse? Would every 1.38% drop in cash shave off 1% of GDP? One doesn’t know what the positive impact of whatever shift to cashless would make. But such massive and sudden withdrawal of cash and such a slow fortnightly infusion of new notes roughly @ rate of 10.6% of total currency stock of ₹17.98 Lac crores prior to 8^th December would definitely have large negative impact.

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The government machinery moves agonisingly slowly. Leave alone day to day affairs, but even in matters like tax collection its progress is marked by legendary lethargy. Modi has repeatedly positioned himself in the forefront of “battle against terrorism” at international meets. Yet, there was an inexplicable [and possibly unpardonable] delay of close to 5 months between surfacing of allegations that Dr. Zakir Naik’s sermons inspired the terrorists who killed and took hostages at Holey Artisan Bakery in Dacca and the NIA raid on the premises of NGOs run by him. The HSBC Swiss and Singapore leaks too took considerable time before action was initiated; and Panama papers investigations took a “seven months breather”. How come did the taxman act with such welcome but unheard of ever before alacrity; especially when income tax department is saddled with staggering mountain of Tax-Demands worth  ₹ 7 lacs crores, {corporate component is  over ₹  2 lacs crores},almost 50% of the DeReMo Value? Assessing officers or other tax officials barely manage to issue notices or demands, finalise proceedings or impose penalties before the statutory time limitations. Income tax, Excise and Customs, Sales tax or Mining departments are unable to or not allowed to pursue even high profile cases of people like Janardan Reddy, ex-BJP minister in Karnataka’s Yediyurappa led government, who even disapparated [aka Harry Potter] tens of thousands of tons of illegally mined iron ore that was impounded by former Lokayukata, Justice Santosh Hegde, at Belekeri port {Modi friend Adani is implicated too}. Bang in the midst of this nation-churning Anti-Corruption DeReMo Hoopla, Reddy had the temerity to celebrate a big fat wedding, thronged by several political leaders including from BJP, thumping his nose at the “iron-man” PM when the common man was running from pillar to post to get hold of small change of “legal” money to meet his daily needs.

Tens of thousands of DeReMo notices would be issued by the taxman in the next few weeks, but bringing the real crooks to early justice would likely remain a pipe dream. The honest taxpayers and even the mildly dishonest ones [afraid of the law, but tempted by the success of real crooks] would manage to exchange the few old notes they hold or deposit them in their accounts without much ado. The real crooks are any way not afraid of the law because they know how the venal system works and how to manage it; and can engage the best legal brains to sabotage the law enforcement, whenever the system threatens to work as it is supposed to. There could be a constitutional challenge to DeReMo too: (1) Not backed by RBI Act for complete demonetisation of a denomination or for limiting withdrawals (2) Deprivation of property, even temporarily, is only by authority of law, which is absent here. Therefore, the new spate of tax demands, especially the big ticket ones, would be embroiled in years, if not decades of tax-litigation spanning at least next two general elections. What purpose then, these “hasty notices”, issued quite obviously at the express command of highest political authority, would serve? But there could be a method in apparent madness. Why?

Modi rode to phenomenal success in 2014 elections on the promise to get rid of corruption {काँग्रेसमुक्त भारत} and to hasten development with jobs; an assurance that was especially bought into by what pundits called aspirational and youthful India. However, the backend and backbone of his campaign was sustained and held together by uncompromising Hindutva {recall the communal polarisation engineered by 2013 Muzaffarnagar Riots and the 71 seats [90% of total] won by BJP in UP} and the dedicated RSS cadre. Modi was never averse to Hindutva. In fact he made most of it to ace three successive Gujarat elections. But when he became prime minister and grabbed the chance to hug powerful world leaders, he relished the grandeur of strutting on the world stage. He saw a bigger role for himself than being just the PM of India -the leader of a “major world power”. An ambition that was lovingly encouraged, of course contingent upon “opening up the economy”, by global capital, rating agencies and world media; who had been weary of stagnating world economy and had begin to panic at the palpable slowdown of China that had almost singlehandedly kept the system afloat after the great recession. The initially welcome baggage of sundry Swamis, Maharajas, Sadhwis and diehards that Hindutva brought into his “parliamentary entourage” must have begun to bite in the new role he aspired to, conscious as he must be of his pariah treatment by USA or UK because of the perceived role he played in Gujarat riots. He has little use for RSS or Hindutva in his new aspirational vision if he can help it and needs a loyal constituency above and beyond RSS. This explains his active silence in espousing communal sentiments though he also keeps mum when rabble-rousers rake the communal-muck. Modi’s hopes for building this loyal constituency were dashed when on one hand despite GDP numbers job growth stagnated or even dwindled prompting president Pranab Mukherjee to speak up. On the other, his anti-corruption crusade that promised  ₹ 15 lacs in every Indian’s pocket came a cropper with “foreign accounts/assets” and domestic “income” declaration schemes yielding painfully embarrassing outcomes. And at the same time UP, Punjab and few other state elections are looming large. Modi is acutely aware that path to his reelection in 2019 passes through UP. Modi needed a spectacular, headline-hunting move that will touch and move every Indian and demonetising  ₹1000/500 notes was the answer possibly provided by FM Arun Jaitley. “Touch” and “Move” it did. In fact, it overwhelmed! But Modi has in the process jettisoned the loyal RSS/Hindutva constituency of traders, shopkeepers, small and medium manufacturers, miners and so on, who depend heavily on “cash economy”. Simultaneously, Modi has walked into an economic quagmire, which is likely to backfire at least in the next three quarters by affecting negatively growth, trade, agriculture, livelihoods and jobs. People are greatly inconvenienced, but are putting up with DeReMo bravely because somewhere they feel that black money holders will be served their just desserts finally; and therefore their own suffering is not in vain. Modi needs to uphold that feeling of “suffering for a cause” with everything at his command at least until the state-elections. Even if that means that the revenue collection administration reels over under the combined onslaught of pre-existing/regular workload and the sudden exponential surge of DeReMo “follow up” work. But just serving notices won’t do. There would have to be regular  headline grabbing “fireworks” over the next few months comprising of tax raids, seizures or even high profile arrests to provide talking points to people, whose own misery may be assuaged by thinking that the justice to “high and mighty” is finally being served. The surveys against real estate industry; gold, diamonds and jewellery; mining industry etc. may be sequenced in tandem. He has ominously warned that “there is no guarantee that more won’t follow”. He would have to make his warning count at least until the elections are over if he wants to outgrow his RSS roots.

Would his big bang moves eliminate corruption? Already there have been a few reported cases of graft by government employees  caught with newly minted Modi-notes of  ₹ 2000; two of them from Gujarat. Won’t his gamble to cleanse the system with compromised government machinery come to a naught? After all India won’t have Modis as assessing officers  to supervise black money cases, even the big-ticket ones.

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“Much can happen between now and 2019. But one thing is clear that road to Modi’s reelection in 2019 goes through UP 2017-assembly elections -a state that gave 71 BJP members of parliament in 2014. UP is also crucial to BJP to eventually get majority in the upper house. Was demonetisation a dazzling masterstroke by Modi to resurrect the iconic anti-corruption crusader image he rode to victory in 2014 but that has lost shine due to pretty modest “achievement” of Income Disclosure Scheme-2016 [IDS] & abject failure of Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets Scheme-2015? Someone who promised Rs. 15 lacs in every Indian’s account by “confiscating” black money stashed abroad and failed utterly [later called चुनावी जुमला], it was a huge come down he could not afford. Would his spectacular but what appears to be foolhardy gambit succeed? If it doesn’t appear to fetch the coveted reward as elections near, then India may be in for worse trouble. Either it would then be war jingoism at our geographical borders or identity borders may get yet again drawn to  bitterly polarise the electorate into communities”.

Brought up on the staple diet of Cinema, the Indian public visualises Black Money as residing in High Denomination notes that are concealed by the Rich & Mighty in secret vaults or even stashed in pillows, mattresses, false ceilings, sofas and what have you at home. Such rich imagery is only strengthened by occasional but not infrequent reports of government officials caught with huge stash of cash¹ at home and in bank lockers.

No wonder then that Modi’s audacious decision to derecognise Rs.1000/500 notes resonated in the public mind, which believed it would flush out all the black money at one go and purify India’s economy and polity once and for ever. Public, especially the middle-class, who is in thrall of Modi’s strongman persona, even considered a little “suffering” of standing in serpentine queues at the banks to change notes a patriotic duty as it was masterly brainwashed by “nationalist” messaging. However, the sudden siphoning off massive liquidity, 87% of the total cash in circulation {or stashed in mattresses if you prefer} has caused though widespread stress to poor people, farmers, labourers, workers, vendors, small and medium enterprises in informal sector by bringing tens of millions of daily cash transactions to a grinding halt².

Whether this move brings the desired windfall gains to Modi in the upcoming crucial state elections would depend upon how quickly the change over to new notes takes place and how much unbearable pain is inflicted upon the people before it is completed. Whatever the merits of the move, one thing is becoming clear that the implementation has been tardy. Coming to the merit, it has two components. Since mostly people vote with their emotions rather than reasons, the political-merit will only be revealed at the hustings. But how does the move measure on economic-merit? Before we proceed, a few clarifications are in order.

1. Black Money: is generated from “income” that is not declared and therefore no income tax is paid on it.
2. Income: is legitimate or illegitimate.
3. Legitimate Income: is derived from economic activities {production of goods & services} that are legal.
4. Illegitimate Income: is derived from activities that are not legal such as Drugs, Extortion, Gambling, Smuggling, Bootlegging, … and most importantly bribes extorted by the government apparatus.
5. Black Economy: is the portion of legit economy that operates below income tax radar.
6. Counterfeit Notes: Currency that is not supervised and issued by agency established and mandated by law of the country.
7. Cash Hoarding: (i) Black money generated by legitimate income earners is mostly a flow and not a pool or stash. It remains in circulation while passing through the hands of many intermediaries including huge number of poor people employed by the informal sector. (ii) Black money generated by illegitimate income earners, especially bribe- takers, tends to be stashed into a hoard, of cash or otherwise, as they have no legit sources of keeping it in circulation.
8. Parking of black money: (i) Sending Abroad: Here the black money travels abroad through many channels {Havala, Trade over/under invoicing³, etc.} and much of it returns home as respectable “Overseas direct Investment” (FDI) or Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI^*) in stocks & debts through Participatory Notes. {RBI has curiously expanded on 17 November 2016 the list of eligible instruments for FPI investment¹⁵, which is often black money coming home cloaked in respectability} Most favoured rerouting hubs for Round Tripping are Mauritius⁴ and Singapore with whom India⁵ has “special arrangements”. (ii) Real estate investments {that is why stocks of real estate companies have lost massively in last 1 week} (iii) Gold and Jewellery, which saw a quantum jump in sales in the few days since demonetisation announcement. (iv) Cash, which forms just 6% to 10% of total black money “stock”.

Coming to the objectives of the demonetisation move, let us look at the data to see how they really pan out.

Ending Menace of Counterfeit Notes:

The only known formal study made of the extent of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) in circulation by Indian Statistical Institute (ISI)⁶ found that about 250 for every 10 lacs notes in circulation are fake amounting to some Rs. 400 Crores. The detection of 80% of FINC incidence is thanks to 3 private sector banks: Axis, HDFC & ICICI. If detection at public sector and other banks is strengthened, then 20% of all FINC can be eliminated every year.

**ISI, however, concluded⁶ that “the existing systems of seizure and detection are enough to flush out the quantum of FICN being infused”. The institute says that if detection can be improved, the value of FICN in circulation can be reduced by at least 20% annually.**

Even if one were to assume that actual incidence of FINC is say three times the ISI estimate or say Rs. 1200 crores; it still forms a minuscule 0.08% of the total monetary base of Rs. 14.5 Lacs crores destroyed by Modi’s move. Was it necessary to guillotine a person, when all that was needed was a targeted amputation of a gangrenous finger? Moreover, the move would only be a temporary setback for those making & pushing these FICN, because the new notes being introduced lack any novel security features⁷ to deter counterfeiting. Incidentally, what is the cost of this Operation Guillotine? The printing cost of notes junked can be worked out from this data:

**Rs 1,000 note required only 0.32% of its face value⁸ to produce but a Rs. 500 note requires 0.78% of its face value, Rs 100 note requires 1.8%, Rs 50 note 3.6%, and Rs 10 note 9.6% to print. There are 15.7 billion notes of Rs 500 and 6.3 billion notes of Rs 1,000 in circulation in India.**

The cost of junked notes thus amounts to Rs. 8100 Crores. Assuming that new notes without additional security features will cost the same for printing, the whole exercise would cost the treasury some Rs. 16000 crores.

There is a far more worrying factor that has missed mainstream media’s radar completely. There were two series of Rs. 1000 notes, 2AQ and 8AC⁹, that were declared by RBI as FICN; though they were as good {or as bad} as any notes issued by RBI except the “series nomenclature”. How could this happen? This takes us to the “Money Makers – The Secret World Of Banknote Printing¹⁰” and especially to firms  American Banknote Company (USA), Thomas De La Rue (UK) and Giesecke and Devrient Consortium (Germany). Thomas De La Rue is of particular interest because it’s Swiss owner was on board the Indian Airlines flight 814 that was highjacked ultimately to Afghanistan in 1999. Is this firm the source of high quality {or say equal quality} notes allegedly pushed by Pakistan and disowned by RBI? Although, the firm is not formally removed from the “backlist”, it is very much active on India’s currency note making scene.

Ending Stranglehold of Black money:

First, the tempo of rise in Rs. 1000/500 notes was in no way dampened during Modi Rule¹¹, in fact had accelerated substantially in the last financial year.

The rise in high denomination notes in FY2016 over FY2015 was 16.42%; and going back likewise for previous years was 12.99% (2015-14), 11.59% (2014-13), & 12.31% (2013-12). This shows the proliferation of Rs.1000/500 notes cannot be blamed as merely “Legacy” issue on previous UPA government.

Further, Ambit capital research in June 2016 had said that black economy is contracting.

**Pegging India’s ‘black economy’ at over Rs.30 lakh crore¹² or about 20 per cent of total GDP, a new study said it has been contracting gradually over the years but still remains bigger than the overall economic size of countries like Thailand and Argentina.**

This assessment is borne out by RBI data¹¹ as the following table shows.

The ratio of Cash in circulation to deposits held in the banks was exactly 150% in 2013; and in subsequent years was153.57% (2014), 152.13% (2015) and 139.50% (2016). Clearly, the steps Modi government took to curb black money were yielding results going by this measure.

**The report said¹² that since the NDA government assumed power, there had been a clear step-up in checks around gold transactions and it has become increasingly difficult to park unaccounted cash in the form of jewellery or bullion. Due to various measures taken by the government to tighten the noose around black money, there has been a clear drop in the prices of land and real estate and a decline in the appetite in gold, it said.**

If this was so, where was the need to take such a drastic step of demonetisation, which looks like a case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Lastly, one needs to determine, not an easy task, what portion of the Rs. 30 Lakh crore black economy resides in black money -the avowed target of Modi’s carpet bombing. The total cash in circulation (what RBI terms ‘M0’) is about 12% of GDP, and Rs. 1000/500 notes amount to 10% GDP, or some Rs. 14 Lakhs crore. Quite obviously at least 16 lakhs crore of black economy resides in entities other than cash. Even of this 14 lakhs crore of cash, there are other, larger & legit claimants, such as Informal sector and formal sector, and households savings. According to an article¹³ the share of cash in the undisclosed income seized by income tax department in raids is mere 6% as per data of tax raids from 2012-13 onwards. Let us take this as the floor. The ex-chief statistician of India, Pronab Sen,¹⁴ estimates the size of informal sector at 45% of GDP while employing 80% of the workforce. Moreover, he estimated that informal financial sector, which drives the money engine of informal sector that is not served by banking sector, at 26% of GDP.

**This sector, comprising not only of the much-reviled moneylender but numerous other institutions such as nidhis, hundis, chit-funds, etc., will have a very hard time in exchanging its stock of currency (some of which may well be black money), and may indeed suffer a permanent erosion in its lending capacity. We might not shed any tears for them, but spare a thought for those whose livelihood depends on the capital provided by this sector because the formal financial sector will never touch them with a barge-pole.  How large is this problem? I had made a rough estimation of this during the preparation of the 12th Five Year Plan, and it came to nearly 40% of formal bank lending – that is, 26% of GDP – which is not a joke.**

Such estimates may be challenged by others and there are also significant overlaps between Black Economy, Informal Sector or Informal Financial Sector and household savings that are beyond authoritative and accurate segregation. Suffice it is to surmise that may be a maximum of 10% to 12% black economy at the most resides in Rs. 1000/500 notes; or say  somewhere between 1.8 lakhs crore (6% of black economy) to 3.6 lakhs crore (12%) is held as “Black Money”. That means the balance 13 lakhs crore to 11 lakhs crores is “white money” and would be the undeserving collateral damage of Modi’s move, which Supreme Court described as akin to “carpet bombing”. It appears that devastation caused by this blitzkrieg is going to far outweigh gains, if any.

Crucially, the root causes of black money generation like “complex tax codes -both direct and indirect” and “arbitrary discretionary powers” vested in the bureaucracy remain completely untouched. Modi wants to fight black money with a corrupted and compromised weapon. How is that possible?  {Incidentally, Modi has approved amendments to protect public servants from Anti-Corruption probe¹⁶}. Generation of black money in New Modi-Notes¹⁷ has already commenced {the unwieldy procedure established to eliminate or minimise misuse of “money changing” system has failed to deter very quick acquisition of new Rs. 2000 notes}. If high denomination notes were seen as the “overriding incentive” to park black money, where was the need to reintroduce them in altered form? But, they had to as the roll out of smaller denomination notes to fill in the void would have brought the economy to a grinding halt for months together apart from the much higher bill for printing such notes. The cumulative man-days wasted in standing in bank queues to exchange new money or deposit old money would look like small change compared to the blow dealt to the already fragile economy. Would the expected fall in interest rates due to banks getting flush with funds and the expectation of reduced inflation due to dampened economic activity mitigate some of the difficulties? Only time will tell.

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1. Massive stash exposed.
2. As currency dries up, business withers at kirana stores.
3. Modi, Adani and Black Money. Where’s the Investigation Going?

4. Mauritius Route: Round_Tripping Restored!

5. मुखोटा Magic: BJP-Congress, FDI-FII.

6. Fake notes worth Rs 400 crores in circulation.

7. No time to add new security features in notes, says official.

8. Rs 14 Lakh Cr Cash Junked–What That Means For Black Money.

9. Watch out for fake Rs 1,000 notes.

10. The Secret World Of Indian Currency Printers.

11. How Demonetisation Will Boost Cashless Economy.

12. India’s black economy shrinks.

13. 10 Reasons Why BJP’s Demonetization Move Is An Unmitigated — And Politically Motivated — Disaster.

14. Shock and oh damn.

15. FPI investment base expanded.

16. Centre Approves Changes in Anti-Graft Law to Protect Public Servants From Probes.

17. Gujarat: Govt staff caught taking Rs 4 lakh bribe in new Rs 2,000 notes.

“In India today, Hindutva ideology and chauvinist nationalism are used to polarise the people on communal lines and to attack religious minorities. Brutal methods are used to suppress the religious minorities; dissent and secular intellectuals are sought to be put down by branding them “anti-national.” From above, at the level of the institutions of the state, and from below, through the outfits of the Hindutva brigade, a determined effort is being made to reorder society and polity on Hindutva lines.”

But, then fights shy of calling it fascist because “While these activities pose a grave and present danger to democracy and secularism, they do not, by themselves, constitute the establishment of a fascist order”. What else is needed to make the ‘Neo-Liberal+Communal Authoritarianism (NLCA)’ of BJP, which is how he identifies it, Fascist? At one place he says NCLA “hollows out parliamentary democracy”, but still maintains it “can be imposed on a system where formal democracy and elected governments exist”. Such contradictory notions can seat comfortably with only those, who are inured to motions of casting a vote for the only candidate in the fray.  The “true” test of fascism for Karat is the “classic definition” fashioned by the Comintern:

“Fascism in power is “the open terrorist dictatorship of the most reactionary, most chauvinistic and most imperialist elements of finance capital.””.

Fascism is not in power today in India. True. But, even in Germany fascism existed before it came to full power in 1933. Where and how did fascism reside when not in power? Or did it spontaneously manifest in power without any antecedents? Nazis and Communists had won more than 50% of the seats in 1930’s election; and Communists at that time “openly announced that they would prefer to see the Nazis in power rather than lift a finger to save the republic” {Hitler: A Study in Tyranny, p138. ISBN 1-56852-036-0}. Does this have echoes in Karat’s India? Apart from Communalism {anti-minority}, BJP/RSS share features of “extreme nationalism”, “pan-Hinduism (pan-Germanism)” with  Nazis. Responding to the unrealistic and dogmatic stress laid on “material conditions (crisis of finance capital)”, Jairus Banaji wrote: “Before fascism succeeds as a state it exists as a movement. And fascism only succeeds in seizing power because it first succeeds as a mass movement” {see:Stalin’s Ghost Won’t Save Us from the Spectre of Fascism }. If one ignores the unnecessary & avoidable ad hominem repartees, Banaji’s response has much to commend.

“To suggest that fascism is largely or entirely about ‘finance capital’, that a handful of bankers could have created the fascist movements in Germany and Italy shows how detached dogma can become from reality when it ignores the formation of culture and looks simply at the economy as a force that affects politics without mediations of any sort.

Anti-Semitism, racism, xenophobia, Islamophobia, Islamism, Hindutva, patriarchy, male violence, caste oppression, militarism, and (not least!) nationalism then become basically irrelevant; window-dressing on a beast (capitalism) that works in some purely economic way, as if the ‘formation of the authoritarian structure’ (Reich) which has everything to do with how reactionary ideologies come about in the wider reaches of civil society is not a process every bit as material as the economy.”

Shamsul Islam in Prakash Karat Unable To Locate Fascism In Hindutva, digs deftly into the Genetic makeup of RSS to lay bare it’s Racist Soul (Brahmanic Supremacist) conflating with Nazi’s ideal of “Aryan Race’.

“Today experiments in cross-breeding are made only on animals. But the courage to make such experiments on human beings is not shown even by the so-called modern scientist of today. If some human cross-breeding is seen today it is the result not of scientific experiments but of carnal lust. Now let us see the experiments our ancestors made in this sphere. In an effort to better the human species through cross-breeding the Namboodri Brahamanas of the North were settled in Kerala and a rule was laid down that the eldest son of a Namboodri family could marry only the daughter of Vaishya, Kashtriya or Shudra communities of Kerala. Another still more courageous rule was that the first off-spring of a married woman of any class must be fathered by a Namboodri Brahman and then she could beget children by her husband. Today this experiment will be called adultery but it was not so, as it was limited to the first child”. -Golwalkar to students and faculty of the School of Social Science of Gujarat University on December 17, 1960; reported in Organizer, January 2, 1961.

What makes fascism special and more devastating case of authoritarianism is the way they seek to reorder and refashion society. Fascism mobilises masses through fear mongering or -phobias, imagines & targets the “enemies” within, advocates muscular foreign policy, pursues supremacist concepts (of racial/cultural/religious/ or glorious past), promotes “fierce” nationalism, and harbours pretensions to or seeks to maintain imperial power. While fascism like authoritarianism may use state machinery once in power to ruthlessly crush dissent, it also mobilises it’s goon squads or loyal cadres to do the hatchet jobs whether in power or on the way to it.  Moreover, control of society is wrought not just through Power and Prisons, but through sophisticated Propaganda & Awe. However, for fascism to succeed society needs to have pre-existing homogeneous block with sufficient numerical strength for it’s ‘propaganda-control’ war to succeed in forging the core or nucleus.  Fascism advances it’s defining ideas in binaries: We Vs They, Good Vs Evil or Moral Vs Amoral.  “Hindus” are what RSS/BJP want to forge into that Nucleus. But, Hindus are not a homogeneous block. Hindus speak in many tongues, Hindus pray to different gods, Hindus have many beliefs -often contradictory, Hindus follow varied cultural practices, Hindus have varied dietary preferences -not seldom mutually irreconcilable, Hindus’ marriage rituals differ, Hindus follow different leaders -political/social/religious, and Hindus are cleaved into numerous castes. Binary propaganda fails to bridge this complex and multi-dimensional divide. What may, if, eventually stop fascism’s advance to power is this Multi-Identity Hindu rather than the absence of mortal-crisis of the finance capital. RSS/BJP recognise this formidable obstacle to creating a Hindu-Rashtra and therefore seek to establish a unitary Hindu-Church by appealing to hoary Vedic-Dharma & by denying the vibrant plurality in Hindu faith and falsifying it’s histories.

Here is an interesting exercise to discover how successful RSS/BJP are in their march to fascist control by honestly judging, which of the following defining characteristics of fascism they have managed to meet: “Fourteen Defining Characteristics Of Fascism By Dr. Lawrence Britt”. Do this exercise to gain far-reaching insights for USA and NATO-States too including Turkey, which found mention in Karat’s argument.

Begin Test

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism – Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.

2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights – Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of “need.” The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.

3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause – The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.

4. Supremacy of the Military – Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.

5. Rampant Sexism – The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Divorce, abortion and homosexuality are suppressed and the state is represented as the ultimate guardian of the family institution.

6. Controlled Mass Media – Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.

7. Obsession with National Security – Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.

8. Religion and Government are Intertwined – Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government’s policies or actions.

9. Corporate Power is Protected – The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.

10. Labor Power is Suppressed – Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed.

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts – Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked.

12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment – Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.

13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption – Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.

14. Fraudulent Elections – Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

PS: India may have had a secular Constitution in spirit, but Indian state lived up to it only nominally. If Hindutva is on the rise today, it is because it always incubated among most high-caste Hindus at least on two counts at the minimum: (1) Othering of Muslims and Christians and (2) Caste Supremacy {read The TM Krishna column: ‘I’m upper-caste and I’m proud of it – and that’s where the problem lies’}.  Therefore, the blame for it’s rise spreads far and wide.

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