There’s no denying that Google enjoys magnitudes more mindshare and capital than Canonical can dream of.  But these assets don’t translate into necessary success in the desktop operating-system market, especially on netbooks, at which Google’s new OS is aimed.

Succeeding where other Linuxes have failed?

After all, if there’s one thing that the failure of Linux on netbooks has proven (and yes, it’s time to admit it was a failure), it’s that most mainstream consumers view netbooks as mini computers that should be able to do everything larger computers can–which includes running Windows applications.  No matter how many times they’re warned that netbooks are really only designed for web browsing, and that Linux behaves differently from Windows, most non-geeks head to the returns department when they discover that their netbooks don’t run the software they’re used to.

Despite this reality, Google thinks that Chrome OS–which is ultimately just another Linux distribution, whether Google wants to admit it or not–will succeed in a niche where Ubuntu has failed despite considerable effort.  This belief reflects either arrogance or miscalculation.

Sure, almost everyone who’s used the Internet in the last ten years knows and loves Google, which is more than Ubuntu has going for it.  But that doesn’t mean the average consumer is going to be any less upset when she purchases a netbook running Chrome OS and discovers that it can’t run Microsoft Office.

Rediscovering choice

While Chrome OS isn’t any likelier than Ubuntu to win over the masses afraid to leave the Windows bubble, its presence in the marketplace–even if it’s not as successful as Google hopes–will serve the useful purpose of reminding consumers, for the first time in two decades, that Microsoft and Apple are not, in fact, the only developers of operating systems in the world.

Although the destruction of the “Mac vs. PC” myth might not mean Ubuntu’s market share will surge overnight, it will teach non-geeks that there are alternative operating systems that most of them never knew existed.  And that realization can’t do anything but help Ubuntu.

In short, I’m not convinced that Chrome OS will steal Ubuntu’s precious market share to any meaningful extent.  But it will inspire more consumers to think outside the Windows/OS X box.  In that scenario, Ubuntu has nothing to lose, and everything to win.

Consider the following developments:

• Google plans to ship a thin open source operating system — called Google Chrome OS — designed for Netbooks. Dell and Hewlett-Packard say they are interested in the operating system. Plus, many netbook providers were already taking a close look at Google Android, which initially targeted smart phones.
• Buzz has been building around Moblin, the mobile Linux operating system and application stack evangelized by Intel. It’s designed for very small screens.
• Microsoft’s Windows 7 is expected to launch in October 2009, and discounted pre-order sales for the operating system are strong.
• Large North American retailers like Best Buy and Staples seem to be less and less interested in Linux netbooks.

Google Chrome OS

But the real news today involves Google Chrome OS. As a universal brand, Google is in the unique position to garner instant attention from PC makers, retailers and netbook buyers.

Consider this:

• Does the typical consumer or small business owner know about Ubuntu and Canonical? In most cases, no.

• Would the typical consumer or small business owner be comfortable buying a low-cost netbook that was branded with Google software? In many cases, I suspect the answer is yes.

Again, I don’t want to press the panic button. Canonical and Ubuntu have serious momentum. And Dell insiders recently told me they remain committed to Ubuntu netbooks, notebooks and PCs.

But now Canonical finds itself competing against established technology titans (Microsoft, Apple and soon Google) plus entrenched Linux providers (Red Hat and Novell).

Nobody ever said making Canonical a profitable business was going to be easy. And perhaps that’s why Canonical has wisely been launching additional services and products involving storage (Ubuntu One), remote management (Landscape) and managed private cloud services.

Updated: July 9, 12:15pm eastern

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Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer, under no circumstances should this information be constituted as legal advice.

Background

First, some quick background information. Mono is an GPL‘ed implementation of Microsoft’s C# and CLI (Common Language Infrastructure) technologies as well as some implementation of the “higher” parts of the .NET framework. Namely, the ADO.NET, ASP.NET, and Windows.Forms. C# and the CLI are ECMA/ISO standards and are the building blocks of the .NET framework. ADO.NET, ASP.NET and Windows.Forms are built upon the technologies and specifications outlined in the two ECMA/ISO standards. These specifications and technologies are owned and patented by Microsoft. Richard Stallman has warned the Open Source community that creating open source programs with patented technologies can give Microsoft power to sue for patent infringement. Miguel de Icaza, the leader of the Mono project, has been trying to reassure users and developers that there is no danger. This has caused Distros to make different decisions about including Mono.

Scene Changing News

Today, a Microsoft employee has made an announcement on Microsoft’s Port25 blog that Microsoft will be adding ECMA 334 and ECMA 335 to their other works under the “Community Promise.” The Community Promise is a legally binding document that means Microsoft will not assert Necessary Claims against any implementations of any of the specifications under the Community Promise.

Great! Now we don’t have to worry about Ubuntu and others that will ship Mono by default right? Not quite. While this is a step in the right direction, Microsoft still can pull a couple of cards out of their sleeve if they choose too. Let’s take a deeper look into the implications of this Promise.

Deeper Look

The first issues is compliance. Microsoft’s Community Promise only applies to implementations that fully comply with the given specification before releasing. This is not a problem with Mono, since they are fully compliant with the specification. The second issue is with the “higher” technologies that Microsoft owns. ASP.NET, ADO.NET, Windows.Forms, and others are not covered under the Community Promise. This means that while Mono’s implementation of C# and the CLI are covered, the open source implementations of ASP.NET etc. are not covered. Miguel de Icaza, even says this himself:

Astute readers will point out that Mono contains much more than the ECMA standards, and they will be correct.

~ Miguel de Icaza (source)

In response to this, the Mono project is going to split their code up into two different pieces. One that is just the implementation of the two specifications covered by today’s announcement, and another with all the uncovered technologies. This can help minimize the impact of the threat of litigation.

What Does this Mean for Ubuntu?

Most of the C#/Mono projects that are included in Ubuntu and others do not use the higher technologies that are not covered by the Community Promise. This means that packages like Tomboy are most likely safe from legal threats. Dreams of making an inter-operable framework for multiple operating systems are still just dreams, until it’s legally clear that Microsoft will not make any moves against implementations of ASP.NET and the like.

Regardless of these theoritical threats, the Mono Project doesn’t seem worried:

For people who need full compatibility with the Windows platform, Mono’s strategy for dealing with any potential issues that might arise with ASP.NET, ADO.NET or Windows.Forms is: (1) work around the patent by using a different implementation technique that retains the API, but changes the mechanism; if that is not possible, we would (2) remove the pieces of code that were covered by those patents, and also (3) find prior art that would render the patent useless.

~Mono Project (source)

Buzz

As of the time of publishing, neither the Free Software Foundation nor Groklaw have made any comments about this issue. Also, although this has been announced by an official Microsoft Blog, the official Community Promise page has not been updated to include the two specifications. This story has already created a buzz on Slashdot and will likely be discussed a lot on sites like Planet Ubuntu.

What do you think? Is this the blessing Mono needed, or is it just another complication in this legal maze?

Since its release in 2004, Mono’s use by open-source developers has been controversial.  Individuals like Richard Stallman have warned programmers to keep away from the tool in the interest of avoiding patent lawsuits by Microsoft, which may be able to make a claim that certain components of the Mono stack infringe on its intellectual property.

Nonetheless, Mono has been used to build numerous open-source applications, including F-Spot photo manager and Tomboy notes, which have been included by default in the desktop version of Ubuntu for several releases.

Risks

While Microsoft and its partners have yet to announce any intent to challenge software developers and end users who run Mono, the risk that this could become a problem has prompted many mainstream Linux distributions to take evasive action.  Novell went to bed with Microsoft in 2006 to achieve a guarantee of immunity, while Red Hat and Fedora announced plans earlier this year to phase out the use of Mono in their default application line up.

Ubuntu’s defiant stance against the threat of lawsuit represents a unique position among major Linux distributions.  At the same time, it complicates Ubuntu’s image in the eyes of end users, particularly in professional environments, where a successful anti-Mono legal campaign would likely cause the most damage.

The decision to stick with Mono therefore places Ubuntu in a difficult position as it works to capture more of the lucrative enterprise market from competitors like Red Hat and Novell.  Disappointment with Ubuntu’s choice is real, as one end user made clear when he threatened to switch his organization to Fedora.

Example to others

While its position on Mono presents some risks and harms the operating system’s image among corporate customers and free-software militants, Ubuntu’s decision should serve as an inspiration to other Linux distributions.  Surrendering to a theoretical legal threat before it has any tangible traction is not the way to innovate or advance the cause of free software.

After all, Linux faced numerous similar challenges in its early days, like the underhanded attempt by a malicious individual in the early 1990s to patent the word “Linux.”  Rather than cowardly backing away from such attacks by selling out to the transgressors or abandoning the Linux name, the nascent free-software companies at the time pooled their resources and successfully overcame the challenges.

Let’s hope that Ubuntu’s example on the Mono issue inspires other distributions to give developers the freedom to use whichever tools they like, while promising support in the event of a lawsuit.  Otherwise, they can expect to be divided and conquered by a bit of sabre rattling from Microsoft.

Am I suggesting that Canonical is abandoning potential support revenue from Ubuntu? Certainly not. Rather, I’m pointing to a range of services built around Ubuntu.

Three quick examples include:

1. Ubuntu One: The online storage and file sharing system is in beta test now. The first 2GB are free; 10GB of storage costs (US)$10 per month.

• The Opportunity: 12 percent of WorksWithU readers say they’re willing to pay for Ubuntu One. That figure, based on a reader poll we conducted in June, may sound low. But I think it’s a reasonably good figure.
• The Challenge: Ubuntu One only works with Ubuntu 9.o4. No Windows. No Mac OS X. I move between Mac OS X and Ubuntu regularly… and I wish Ubuntu One allowed me to share files between those two systems.

2. Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud Services: Professional services designed to help and support customers building private clouds, according to Canonical.

• The Opportunity: No doubt, CIOs and business executives are trying to figure out how to build and maintain secure private clouds that drive down IT costs but increase information sharing.
• The Challenges: Do CIOs really think of Ubuntu when they think of clouds? Canonical is going to need  some big-name partners for the Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud Services. (Collect call to IBM…). Meanwhile, Red Hat has announced a cloud certification/partner program, and Amazon.com — a powerful brand in cloud computing — is the first named partner.

3. Landscape: A support and management tool that allows IT managers to remotely administer Ubuntu systems.

• The Opportunity: Canonical could take Landscape in multiple directions. Canonical itself could become a managed service provider that remotely administers customers’ Ubuntu networks, much in the way that Dell launched ProManage Managed Services to remotely manage customer systems. Canonical could also promote Landscape as a platform for VARs and resellers to use to remotely manage customer networks.
• The Challenges: Landscape remains a work in progress. Until Ubuntu more deeply penetrates corporate networks, Landscape won’t be able to fully flex it’s own muscles.

Smart Strategy

Generally speaking I like Canonical’s decision to pursue revenue opportunities outside of the base Ubuntu operating system support services.

Think of it this way: Cisco Systems has a core operating system (IOS), but Cisco made its profits on a range of solutions built around that operating system.

Or think of it this way: Netscape originally made its money around a core product (the Navigator browser). But when the browser market became a zero-sum revenue game, Netscape didn’t have strong enough alternative revenue streams.

No doubt, Microsoft wants to crush Canonical before Ubuntu is a financially viable, self-sustaining operating system. Canonical is wise to put a few additional irons in the fire.

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First, cloud computing seems to be Canonical’s best chance to accelerate Ubuntu Server Edition deployments. Second, The VAR Guy wonders if Canonical will find a way to pull partners — integrators, managed service providers and VARs — into this private enterprise cloud strategy.

Server Challenges, Cloud Opportunities

As The VAR Guy has noted multiple times, Canonical is working overtime to build Ubuntu Server Edition relationships with hardware vendors (Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Lenovo, etc.) and major ISVs (independent software vendors). So far those efforts are yielding mixed results. Just last week, Dell insiders said they had no plans to offer Ubuntu Server Edition on Dell PowerEdge servers.

Cloud computing potentially allows Canonical to circumvent the server pre-load debate, injecting Ubuntu Server Edition directly into multiple cloud opportunities — including Amazon Web Services, Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud and now private clouds.

To rewind a bit, Canonical launched a technical preview of Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud (UEC), an open-source system that enables organizations to build their own clouds that match the interface of Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud, according to Canonical. UEC is now available as part of the Ubuntu Server Edition technology stack.

Fast forward to the present. Canonical says:

“By creating private clouds with UEC, organizations can optimize server use and increase data-centre efficiencies, while lowering costs and providing end users with self-service IT. Ubuntu is the first Linux distribution to provide such a system and now Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud Services from Canonical help businesses build these environments with optimal efficiency.”

But here’s the challenge: Customers don’t buy cloud operating systems. They embrace cloud services to host specific applications (storage, backup/recovery, database, ERP, email, etc.). So, promoting Ubuntu for private clouds is only the start. Canonical needs to promote reliable ISV software stacks for Ubuntu in the cloud.

A case in point: Red Hat is now certifying cloud partners for their ability to support both Red Hat Enterprise Linux and JBoss middleware. Smart move.

Where Are the VARs?

Meanwhile, Canonical also needs to recruit and train more channel partners.

Already, VARs like OpenBI and Levementum have launched open source ERP, CRM and Business Intelligence applications into Amazon’s cloud. Yes, those VARs are profiting today from cloud computing. Canonical needs partners like that to help embrace and evangelize Ubuntu Server Edition.

To Canonical’s credit, the company has clearly articulated pricing and availability for Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud Services.

Yearly pricing for entry-level support for five physical servers and up to 25 virtual Ubuntu servers is $4,750 for 9×5 standard support and $17,500 for 24×7 advanced support. Additional support packs are available per physical server and per ten virtual servers for $1,250 p.a. for standard support and $3,000 p.a. for advanced.

But where’s the pricing and margin information for VARs and resellers? There’s nothing wrong with selling direct to end-customers. But in order to get the word out faster, Canonical needs partners.

The VAR Guy covers channel partner programs on his own site. Follow WorksWithU via Identi.ca, Twitter and RSS (available now) and our newsletter (coming soon).

First, some background: Ubuntu certainly has momentum on the desktop. But Canonical is evangelizing Ubuntu on servers as well. And that effort requires enterprise software partners, as Matt Asay points out.

What’s Missing

When Ubuntu 9.04 launched in April 2009, Canonical CEO Mark Shuttleworth said Ubuntu’s server edition had been tested on 45 different server configurations from Dell, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo and other server suppliers. More recently, Canonical has launched server training through partners like Fast Lane and Bridge Education. And HP in June 2009 began certifying some ProLiant servers to run Ubuntu.

Nice. But Ubuntu still faces an uphill battle across…

1. Servers. Competing against Red Hat Enterprise Linux and Novell SUSE Linux won’t be easy. Last week, Dell insiders told The VAR Guy that Dell has no plans to pre-load Ubuntu Server Edition — even as Dell continues forward with Ubuntu on selected notebooks, netbooks and desktops. Simply put, Ubuntu needs more server sofware ISVs — including Oracle — to attract customers and hardware makers.

2. Desktops: As Windows 7 debuts, the noise around Windows and Mac OS will grow louder again — threatening to push back Linux’s recent desktop gains.

3. Netbooks: Windows 7 is one concern. But the bigger threats to Ubuntu come from the open source community itself. Google Android and Intel Moblin could potentially attract developer and OEM (original equipment manufacturer) attention away from Ubuntu on netbooks and mobile Internet devices (MIDs).

Oracle’s Challenges

Meanwhile, Oracle’s Unbreakable Linux strategy is… um… broken. Or stated more tactfully:

1. CIOs and VARs are not exactly banging on Oracle’s door for Linux. And the Windows Server-SQL Server combination remains a powerful one-two punch for Microsoft.

2. Red Hat is gaining momentum outside of Linux, promoting JBoss middleware against Oracle’s BEA and other middleware offerings. Yes, Red Hat is attacking — and succeeding — in a core Oracle market.

Oracle’s Opportunities

One simple solution: Oracle should partner more closely with Canonical on both the server and the desktop.

On the server, an Oracle-Ubuntu combination could emerge as a popular alternative to Oracle-Red Hat, Oracle-SUSE and SQL Server-Windows.

On desktops, Oracle will likely inherit close ties to the OpenOffice community as part of the Sun Microsystems acquisition:

“Sun continues to sponsor development on OpenOffice.org and is the primary contributor of code to OpenOffice.org.”

Together, Oracle and Canonical could use OpenOffice to achieve some common goals:

1. Further harm Microsoft’s desktop revenue stream.

2. Accelerate Ubuntu’s desktop momentum.

3. Offset any potential desktop gains by Red Hat and Novell.

Hot Speculation

The VAR Guy isn’t suggesting Oracle and Canonical are in discussions about a partnership. Besides, Matt Asay is the guy you need to blame if you think the Oracle-Ubuntu chatter is a waste of time. Matt got this ball rolling. The VAR Guy merely threw a third name (OpenOffice) into the Oracle-Ubuntu chatter.

The VAR Guy covers channel partner programs on his own site. Follow WorksWithU via Identi.ca, Twitter and RSS (available now) and our newsletter (coming soon).

This quick Vodcast captures thoughts from Dell’s:

• Todd Finch (consumer Linux system opportunities);
• John Hull (Linux server and desktop trends); and
• Doug Anson (Moblin’s potential for small mobile devices).

Coming Soon

In addition to the Vodcast above, I’ll be back soon with an in-depth blog entry describing Dell’s Linux strategy (servers, desktops and mobile) in greater detail. In fact, the blog entry will answer many of the questions WorksWithU readers submitted here.

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Key Questions…

1. Learnings So Far: It has been roughly two years since Dell started pre-loading Ubuntu on selected systems. What are Dell’s key learnings about the Ubuntu market so far?

2. Geographic Reach: In what countries does Dell offer Ubuntu? Which countries still need to be addressed, and why?

3. Additional Platforms: What are Dell’s thoughts regarding Ubuntu beyond PCs and laptops. Has Dell been testing Ubuntu on mobile internet devices (MID), smart phones, servers, appliances? Why or why not?

4. Additional Services: Canonical is beta testing new services like Ubuntu One (shared file storage/cloud storage), while continuing to expand services like Landscape. Will Dell test/offer those services to customers?

5.  The Dell-Canonical relationship: How often do the companies speak with one another, why, and where is the relationship going next?

Plus, I’ll weave in reader questions. Feel free to email me suggested questions or topics (joe [at] ninelivesmediainc.com) or post your thoughts below.

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To see the the WorksWithU 1000 so far, visit our WorksWithU 1000 center. Also, be sure to participate in the WorksWithU 1000 survey. We’ve received more than 380 survey responses to date, and we intend to march quickly toward  1,000 responses.

What’s Next From WorksWithU

Here are four ways we plan to compile and examine the survey data:

1. Plot Ubuntu Business Deployments Globally: Using Google Maps, we’ll show readers where Ubuntu Server Edition and Ubuntu Desktop Edition are taking hold — country by country, region by region.

2. Explore Server Trends: We’ll explore the key business drivers for deploying Ubuntu Server Edition.

3. Profile Key Ubuntu Evangelists: Who are the IT managers and business managers driving corporate Ubuntu deployments? We’ll be interviewing dozens of business and technology managers who bet their businesses on Ubuntu.

4. Pinpoint Continued Challenges: We know. Ubuntu needs more certified application support from major independent software vendors. It also needs more pre-load agreements on servers and desktops. Through our follow-up interviews with Ubuntu business users, we’ll document how today’s organizations are procuring Ubuntu-based systems and applications.

Join the discussion and help us to shape the WorksWithU 1000 research.

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