Click here to view the video on YouTube.

The race:

• Walker has a small but steady lead and looks to be in a favorable position.
  • Pollster.com polling average
    • Walker: 49.9%
    • Barrett: 45.9%

Power of unions on the decline

• The Unions bit off more than they could chew with this recall election
  • After spending more $4 million in the primary they couldn’t even get their candidate (Kathleen Falk) the nomination
  • Union membership is on the decline and so is their political power
    • 11.8% of wage and salary workers are members of Union as of 2011
    •  Compared to 20.1% who were in 1983

National implications

• This is just another sign of GOP edge in enthusiasm.
  • The Republicans in general and the RGA in particular have done a much better job than their Democratic counterparts in Wisconsin
  • Whereas Democrats couldn’t rally around a single candidate Walker who was unopposed actually received more votes in the primary than all the democratic candidates combined.
  • Compare this to the president, who has 40% of primary voters of his own party voting for a felon in WV and another 42% voting for uncommitted in KY.

In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

• A look at the Democratic primaries in Kentucky, West Virginia, and Arkansas.
• The electoral implications of the administration’s war on coal.
• The results of a major Obama ad campaign against a perceived Romney vulnerability: Bain Capital.

The key take aways for this week:

• President Obama encountered some mild trouble as rural Democrats in Kentucky and Arkansas turned out in large numbers to vote for anyone on the Democratic ticket but him.
• On the other end of the economic spectrum, a major ad campaign against private equity firm Bain Capital backfired as numerous well known Democrats came out in support of the company, alarmed at the hostile tone the administration took toward a private company in political advertisements.
• The president’s image remains split and a majority of Americans disapprove of how he is handling the most important issue to them: the economy.
• While some prominent Democrats advance racism as an explanation for Obama’s embarrassing, but ultimately transitory difficulty among Democrats in Appalachia, there are less strained explanations for why Obama is struggling among voters who formed a core component of Hilary Clinton’s base.  The administration’s hostility toward coal appears to be putting some of the top coal producing, and coincidentally swing, states into serious contention.

Click here to view the video on YouTube.

Coupled with conservatives’ recent dominance on twitter (@iowahawkblog is a personal favorite) and their ability to derail the narrative the Obama campaign is trying to push on twitter (see #julia for an example), Republicans have to feel good about their ability to compete in social media.  While this in and of itself won’t win the election it is encouraging to see that the right is competing with the Obama campaign online.

In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

• Three key swing states, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina
  • How Obama did in 2008, how he’s doing now, and what unemployment in each state currently is.
  • The Goldman Sachs GLI Index is trending toward a global recession.

The key takeaways from this week:

The Republican lead on the generic congressional ballot continues to creep higher, as economic indicators continue to creep lower.  Goldman Sach’s GLI index highlights some worrying trends this week.

President Obama’s image remains split with nearly equal amounts of American’s approving as disapproving of how he has handled the presidency.  His economic rating still shows a majority of Americans disapprove.

A look at several swing states this week shows that, while Obama is leading Romney nationally, he is underperforming in key states.

• Obama trails his 2008 vote in Michigan by 12 points and Romney has taken an eight point lead in North Carolina.

But it’s amazing what one dead bad guy and a bad economy will do to a presidency.  Whether or not Obama really has a chance of parlaying one good moment into a re-election, it’s clear that his campaign is at least toying with the idea of trying to draw a contrast with Mitt Romney on foreign policy to try to distract attention from the fact that unemployment is still above neigh percent and shows no signs of dropping quickly.

So there you have it.  When the economy stays bad despite pretty much your entire policy agenda being enacted, it’s time to run for plan B.  And apparently for Obama, plan B is reminding America that he’s the one on whose watch Bin Laden was killed.

Will it work?  Stay tuned until November to be sure, but here are some questions we can answer to try to project whether this strategy will help Obama in the long term.

• How much does foreign policy matter in this election?

The answer seems to be, “not much.”

An April  Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that only three percent of voters said that foreign policy was the most important issue to them in thinking about the presidential campaign.  A CNN/ORC poll conducted around the same time found that only two percent of Americans say that terrorism is the most important issue facing the country.  Both polls found majorities saying that the economy was their top concern.

• How much credit does Obama get for Bin Laden’s death?

The evidence on this question seems to be equivocal.   Immediately following Bin Laden’s death, approval of Obama’s handling of terrorism jumped 11 points, from 61% to 72% according to trend from AP-GfK.  But within a month that rating returned to 63% and it has stayed in the low 60s since.

So Americans clearly gave Obama credit for “getting Bin Laden” but not enough to fundamentally change their impressions even of his efforts in combating terrorism.

• Did that singular event fundamentally change the way Americans view Obama’s Administration?

Here again the answer is a clear “no.”  Obama did see a small job approval jump immediately after Bin Laden’s death, according to Gallup nightly tracking, but that bump quickly ebbed and today he is still stuck with almost as many Americans disapproving of the job he’s doing (46%) as approve (47%)

The bottom line is that it’s not at all clear that Obama can score a win on foreign policy.  What is clear though is that even a win on the foreign policy won’t do much to help Obama win the war and retain the presidency.  It is, as it so often is, still the economy, stupid.

To:              WPA Research Clients and Friends

From:           Chris Wilson, Chris Perkins, Bryon Allen

Subject:       Positioning on Gay Marriage

Recently a Republican pollster released an analysis suggesting that Republicans should not only stop using gay marriage as a campaign issue, but went so far as to argue conservatives should change sides and favor gay marriage.  Simply put, we couldn’t disagree more.

This memo summarizes current data on the issue and shows how, at this time, opposition to gay marriage and a pro-family position is still a winning argument for Republican candidates and leaders.

First, a few caveats:

• This election is unlikely to be about gay marriage, regardless of the position a Republican candidate takes on the issue.
  • With a majority of Americans identifying the economy and jobs as the most important issue in deciding their votes and unemployment still above eight percent nationally, and much higher in many places, this election will be about who voters trust more on the economy and job creation.
  • It is true that the long-term trend in public opinion seems to be moving in favor of gay marriage.
    • This may matter in future elections if the trend continues.  However, trends in public opinion are not linear and reverse almost as often as they continue, so assuming we are headed for a world with super-majority support for gay marriage seems unwise at this point.

Now the facts:

• Support for gay marriage is a 50/50 issue in the American electorate.
  • A May 3-6 Gallup poll of American adults found that 50% said that “marriage between same-sex couples should be recognized by the law as valid with the same rights as traditional marriages.”
    • Comparatively, almost half (48%) of Americans said that gay marriage should not be recognized by the law.
• When Americans are offered the option of civil unions, support for gay marriage drops to just a plurality.
  • In a CBS/New York Times poll from February, 40% of Americans supported gay marriage, 23% supported civil unions but not gay marriage and 31% said gay couples should have no legal recognition at all.
• The electoral implications of gay marriage are similarly mixed.
  • A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from March found that most Americans (54%) say that a candidate’s position on gay marriage won’t make much difference in their vote.
  • One-quarter (25%) said they would be more likely to vote for a pro-gay marriage candidate and one in five (20%) say they would be more likely to vote against such a candidate.
  • Obama’s decision to come out in favor of gay marriage does appear to have hurt him and may matter, in some way, come November.
    • While a majority (51%) of Americans approve of Obama’s decision to support gay marriage, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll taken on May 10^th, 45% disapprove including 44% of Independents and even 25% of Democrats.
    • Perhaps more importantly, the same poll shows that 26% of Americans are less likely to vote for Obama because of the decision while just 13% are more likely to vote for him.
      • The vast majority (60%) says the issue makes no difference in their vote.
      • One problem with looking at overall national data is that it over-represents electorally less important states in the Northeast and on the West Coast (states Obama will almost certainly win).  Looking at swing states alone shows even more sharply the danger this issue may pose to Obama’s chances.
        • Since 2004 seven of the nine “toss up” states identified on realclearpolitics.com’s electoral map have passed gay marriage bans.
          • The voters of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia have all voted against gay marriage in the recent past and Obama may face additional challenges in some or all of these states as he attempts to defend the opposite position.

What does it mean?

The majority of voters aren’t going to make their decision in this year’s elections based on gay marriage, but among those who will this remains a 50/50 issue.

In the battleground of this, and many elections, voters have clearly expressed their preference that gay marriage not be recognized in law.

Republican candidates would be wise to note that many swing voters and the Republican base are opposed to gay marriage and avoid falling into the trap that seems to have captured Obama—taking positions that appeal to the echo chamber of the two coasts and not to the middle of the country where elections are decided.

In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

• A look at how Americans perceive same sex marriage.
• A review of the April jobs report and recent employment trends.

The key take aways for this week:

While disapproval of President Obama ticked up slightly, Americans are still divided on the President and disapproval remains below 50%.

Support for both parties on the generic congressional ballot is up, with Republicans leading slightly.

• Two of the last three months have seen Republicans leading on the generic ballot, and the third was a tie.  This is an uncomfortable sign for Democratic trend watchers.

With President Obama’s much publicized announcement of support for same-sex marriage this week, the divisive issue from 2004 has been brought back into the headlines. 

• While overall support for same-sex marriage is slightly higher this year than previous years, it remains a very divisive issue.
• It also remains an issue that only 3% of Americans prioritize, unlike the jobs and the economy, which 48% of Americans believe is the most important issue facing the nation today.

A closer look at the April jobs report shows that March and April had job growth below expectations, and decreased workforce participation.  With 53% of Americans disapproving of the President’s handling of the economy, and expectations set so high early in the administration for recovery, President Obama will need to find a better way to address the most important issue to most Americans.

In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

• A look at the very tight Wisconsin gubernatorial race.  With Scott Walker’s image both well defined and polarized, the real battle will be fought over Independents and defining Tom Barrett.
• Elizabeth Warren’s inability to put a small controversy to bed quickly will have an impact in one of the most competitive races of the cycle.
• Republicans are more likely to vote, and conservative Republicans are the most likely, showing that any divisions during the primary have been put soundly to bed.

President Obama’s approval has remained relatively constant for months.  Look for this to change as the general election continues to pick up momentum, one way or the other.

Unemployment in April dropped to 8.1%, which would be good news for the president if it weren’t another drop based on workers leaving the workforce. 

• Only  115,000 new  jobs were added, while 342,000 workers left the workforce.
• Roughly 12.5 million Americans remain unemployed.
  • 41% of these have been unemployed for more than 6 months.

 With a majority of Americans disapproving of Obama’s handling of the economy, Obama will need to address this issue at some point during the campaign, or Romney will be able to simply do what he’s best at: avoid mistakes.

Two of the most competitive races of the election cycle made headlines this week.  In Wisconsin, Scott Walker and Tom Barrett are tied.  Walker has a very polarized image, but nearly one in four voters have not made up their minds about Barrett.  The battleground looks to be shaping up over a few points of Independent swing and defining Barrett’s image to voters who are not yet familiar with him.

In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren stumbled into trouble with a minor scandal over an ethnicity listing that has grown in the telling.  In politics if you’re explaining, you’re losing, and Warren, down by only two points just a few weeks ago, was still explaining at the end of the week.

Republicans are consistently showing that they are more likely to definitely vote in the general election.  Obama’s presence on the ticket may be working against the down-ballot races for the Democrats this time, and the self inflicted wounds of the primary appear to be healed. 

In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

• Nate Silver’s analysis of the home state support brought by a Vice Presidential candidate, applied to some of the potential nominees
• With the Pennsylvania primary done, Blue Dog Democrats are hurting even more than projections originally indicated.

Republicans and Democrats are tied on the generic congressional ballot.  A majority of Americans do not approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, perhaps because most Americans know someone who has been laid off in the last six months. 

Nate Silver had an interesting analysis of the effect of vice presidential candidates on their ticket’s performance and concluded that the vice presidential home state bump is actually only 2%.  That 2% can make all the difference though, in a year with many hard fought swing states.

• Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Bob McDonnell are all from battleground states that could be firmed up heading into the election.

With Pennsylvania’s primary on Tuesday the Blue Dog Coalition took two serious losses in Jason Altmire and Tim Holden.  From 54 members before the 2010 elections to 25 today, the Blue Dogs have had seven members of the current coalition retire or be defeated in a primary.