WWPD: Your Source For All Things Flames of War!

Why the Pie Hates You

2012-05-17T07:30:00.000-04:00

The Math Behind Artillery and Air

Soviet forces come under fire from a German armored train

By now, I'm sure you've all read Eric Riha's excellent article on artillery math in Flames of War. (If not, go read it here.) You'll notice he has a whole bunch of complicated charts calculating the chance of killing a single tank under an artillery template. You'll also notice those numbers are pretty small.

I want to talk about why they're so small and what that means for using your artillery on the battlefield.

Imagine the chances of killing a single target under a template as a pie. If it is automatically hit and killed, you'd get the full pie. Each die roll after the first slices a little bit more out of the pie. Artillery always needs at least three rolls to hit and kill. Once to range in, once to hit, and one save. If the situation requires a firepower test, that's four rolls.


100%

2+ = 83.33%

2+ 2+ = 69.44%

2+ 2+ 2+ =57.87%

2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ = 48.23%

A US AOP calls in artillery fire

That may not sound like much, but it adds up quickly. Look at the charts above. The first pie is automatic success, of course. The second pie shows the reduction from a 2+ roll, the second, two 2+ rolls, then three. By the time you have made four 2+ rolls, the overall chance of success is less than 50%.

So in practical terms, imagine there was a Tiger in the open, and all you had to do to kill it was not roll a 1 on four dice. You'd fail more than half the time.

What's the moral of this? Artillery makes a lousy tank sniper. Even the best artillery is terrible at killing any single target. I know we've all felt the temptation to aim the big guns at the enemy's heaviest armor and hope for the best -- but that's usually a bad idea.

Here is my own version of Eric's charts. They don't take into account re-rolls or the chance to kill. All I'm calculating is the chance to range in and to hit:

To range	To hit	Range EV	Hits EV
6	6	0.166667	0.027778
6	5	0.166667	0.055556
6	4	0.166667	0.083333
6	3	0.166667	0.111111

5	6	0.444444	0.055556
5	5	0.444444	0.12963
5	4	0.444444	0.203704
5	3	0.444444	0.277778

4	6	0.722222	0.083333
4	5	0.722222	0.194444
4	4	0.722222	0.314815
4	3	0.722222	0.435185

3	6	0.888889	0.111111
3	5	0.888889	0.25
3	4	0.888889	0.398148
3	3	0.888889	0.546296

2	6	0.972222	0.138889
2	5	0.972222	0.296296
2	4	0.972222	0.458333
2	3	0.972222	0.62037

Notice how rapidly the EV to diminishes even under favorable circumstances.

But this is for a single target under the template. If you can put more than one team under the template, you can multiply your EV by the number of targets. So you are (surprise, surprise) better off aiming at a cluster of targets than a single target. A wary opponent will keep his tanks spread out, but that's a harder game to play with infantry.

The pie also favors pinning over killing. Merely hitting a target requires fewer die rolls than killing it. That's one or two slices of the pie you get to keep.

Italian cannons fire over open sights in a night battle

So the mathematics of artillery dictate an optimal use -- aim at a large cluster of teams, preferably infantry or guns, and expect to pin more than you kill. About what you'd expect from the historical use of artillery. (You'd think this was a simulation or something!) If you do have to use your artillery as a tank sniper, don't expect it to do jack-all. Know that you are trying to beat the odds.

Air is a bit trickier. Air in v3 automatically ranges in on a target in the open. So it has (potentially) one fewer roll to make than artillery. This should make it easier to use. On the other hand, there are other rolls air must make -- and these slice the pie just as much as a ranging test. There are rolls to see if your air arrives, whether it is intercepted, how many planes arrive, and whether they are shot down by AA. All in all, air remains probably less reliable than artillery.

The dilemma for air lies in the armament for planes. Many of them are specialist tank hunters with good FP and great AT. It seems like a waste to fire them at infantry or guns; but (as we've seen) the chance of killing a single tank is low. If you do go tank-hunting, you can take comfort in the fact that many of the most critical rolls are made before you place the template. By the time you begin aiming, you will already know how many planes you have and where the enemy AA guns are located.

Just remember, every roll is a slice off the pie. Every slice off the pie is bad. The pie hates you. Plan accordingly.

The NOOb goes to War ... V3 - Weapons Platoon Support Options

2012-05-16T07:30:00.000-04:00

Greetings Recruit NOObs,

     Commander NOOb Mezz here to present our second article of the "NOOb goes to War" series.

     If you need to catch up with the briefing, you can check out the previous article NOOb goes to War ... Version 3

     In our previous article, we addressed planning around forces that could be used in numerous lists. To remind you, I find this saves time and money as well as making your forces more adaptable for the future.

Every good commander tries to take a unit that can hold up against what he believes what he will be facing on the field of battle. Realistically this is almost impossible unless a match has specific limitations or era. Hold your head high NOOb because we cannot lose focus. We previously discussed picking units that can be used for numerous army lists to max out your painting, hobby time and money.

     When soldiers mention support platoons, the FIRST thing you should look into in my opinion is Weapons Platoons. Most are able to be attached to many units and add some much needed firepower to think twice about.

Using our EW Germans, here is two examples of Weapon platoon choices for our infantry ... courtesy of EASY ARMY !!!

Infanteriekompanie - Heer
Infantry Company

German Early-War

Platoon

Qty

Unit

Points

Weapons Platoons

Infanterie Machine-gun Platoon (Heer)

p.95

1
4

Cmd SMG team
MG34 HMG team

Infanterie Mortar Platoon (Heer)

p.95

1
1
4

Cmd SMG team
Observer Rifle team
8cm GW34 mortar

Company Points:

190

Source document: Blitzkrieg Book

Arsenal

Gun Teams

Weapon	Mobility	Range	ROF	Anti-tank	Firepower	Notes
8cm GW34 mortar	Man-packed	24"/60cm	2	2	3+	Smoke, Minimum range 8"/20cm.
Firing bombardments		40"/100cm	-	2	6+	Smoke bombardment.
MG34 HMG team	Man-packed	24"/60cm	6	2	6+	ROF 3 when pinned down or moving.

Infantry Teams

Team	Range	ROF	Anti-tank	Firepower	Notes
Rifle team	16"/40cm	1	2	6+
SMG team	4"/10cm	3	1	6+	Full ROF when moving.

Infanterie Machine-gun Platoon (Heer) - p.95
Infanterie Machine-gun Platoons may make Combat Attachments to Infanterie Platoons.

Look at all the HMG firepower ! HMG teams with a ROF (rate of fire) 6 X 4 teams equals 24 dice ! Do not fret if the HMGs are pinned they still get a ROF of 3 ... still a strong 12 dice to use against others. Granted you would want to spread these HMGs between infantry platoons to help bolster both offense and defensive punches. 2 HMG teams per Infantry platoon would still give a possible 12 dice or 6 if they are pinned. You only need 5 hits in defensive fire to halt an assault or assist in pinning a possible target platoon for your assault. Use these numbers to your advantage. This particular infantry list has an option to get 2 HMG platoons that can be attached. HMGs can be used with many lists ... never a bad pickup to add to your arsenal in this NOOb's opinion and experience.

     The second Weapons platoon choice you should always consider is Mortars. The FIRST important factor is the SMOKE capabilities. One of the first things shared with me by Steve was the beauty of proper smoke usage. It causes units to move thus lower ROFs. It shields units to move or setup for assaults. It can pin units and are effective against open topped transports. If the command teams are SMGs they get a ROF of 3 as well! Nice huh ? Never underestimate their functions. Four 8 cm tubes are always a nice option.

     The cost of these nice easy options ? A mere 190 points ! The best thing is these are attachable platoons. We have not even gotten to Regimental Support and Divisional Supports.

     Want to maximize your hobby time and or painting ? Using our mechanized options here is another list ...

Panzerschützenkompanie
Armoured Rifle Company

German Early-War

Platoon

Qty

Unit

Points

Weapons Platoons

Schützen Machine-gun Platoon

p.76

1
1
4
4

Cmd SMG team
Kfz 15 field car
MG34 HMG team
Kfz 70 truck

140

Schützen Mortar Platoon

p.76

1
1
1
1
4
4

Cmd SMG team
Motorcycle & Sidecar
Observer Rifle team
Kfz 15 field car
8cm GW34 mortar
Kfz 70 truck

185

Company Points:

270

Source document: Blitzkrieg Book

     So let's do some math. Machine gun platoons for infantry will need 1 CMD team and 4 HMG teams. The Mortar platoon will need 1 CMD team, 1 Observer team and 4 mortar teams.

     The Mechanized HMG platoon needs 1 CMD team, 4 HMG teams, 1 Kfz15 field car and 4 Kfz70 trucks. The Mortar team needs 1 CMD team, 1 Observer team, 4 mortar teams (minimum squad strength), 1 Motorcycle/Sidecar, 1 Kfz15 Field car and 4 Kfz70 trucks.

     So the quartermaster will need to put a req in for 2 Kfz15 Field cars, 1 Motorcycle/Sidecar and 8 Kfz70 trucks. You would have two list type options with simply HMGs and Mortars.

     There are other options for Weapon Platoons but I chose to cover these two first. They are a simple option. They can be used in various ways to fill out various lists. And in the grand scheme of things ... a cheap option.

     Next up ... Weapon Platoons with a punch !

     Remember my NOOb advice ... maximize, be flexible and have fun ! If you have any questions or wish to add to the NOOb topic list for future articles you can contact me at Joe@wwpd.net

Joe ... aka Mezz

What Are Those Red and White Poles For?

2012-05-15T07:30:00.000-04:00

Editor's Note: This is a guest article by Rob Kelly- I found it incredibly informative, I hope you do too! Thanks Rob!

I’m sure that everyone has seen those red and white poles either mounted on the trails of a gun or howitzer or on the side of an armoured vehicle. I served 18 years in the Royal Canadian Artillery, so I feel qualified to answer that question.

The short answer is that they are “aiming posts”. The longer answer is that they are cleaning staves painted up to look like aiming posts. So, what exactly are aiming posts and what are they used for? First of all aiming posts are only used for indirect fire weapons such as artillery guns and howitzers or mortars. When guns are deployed by an artillery battery a survey device known as an aiming circle or director is set up to the left front of the battery.

When guns are deployed by an artillery battery a survey device known as an aiming circle or director is set up to the left front of the battery.

It has a compass in it to allow it to aim the guns in the desired direction towards the enemy. Once the director knows which way its pointing, it takes a series of angles to the guns’ sights. The gun sights then set that angle and moves the gun left or right until the director is centred in the sight. As long as the director is visible in the centre of the sight, the gun will be pointing in the desired compass bearing.

Now the gun will record itself so that it is not always reliant on the director. It does this in two ways, by using a distant aiming point like a tower far off in the distance or by the use of aiming posts spaced 25 or 50 apart away from the gun. So, the gun will send out the first aiming post 25 or 50 metres to the left front of the gun and plant it. The second post will go an equal distance and be planted so that both posts are lined up with the sight. The posts go out left front so that the sight won’t be obstructed by the guns barrel. The aiming posts can also be set up right rear for the same reason. The gun then records the angle to the posts.

When a fire mission is received it will contain the bearing or azimuth to the target. That bearing is applied on the sight (which will turn) and the traverse wheel is turned until the sight is lined up with the aiming posts. Once that occurs the gun knows that it is on the correct bearing. Keep in mind that the gun sight has two scales, one for the bearing of fire and one for angles to the director and aiming posts. Everything in the artillery is based on the right angle triangle.

So, if those red and white poles are only used for indirect fire weapons, what are those poles on direct fire weapons like anti tank guns and tank destroyers? They are just unexciting cleaning staves or rods. They come in two or three parts depending on the length of the gun barrel and come with a variety of attachments, such as a bore brush for cleaning (though in a pinch, with 105mm guns a roll of toilet paper would fit just fine). There is also an attachment commonly known as the “suicide cone”. If there is a misfire on the gun the detachment will wait a short period of time hoping that the propellant will eventually explode firing the round out of the barrel. If not, the suicide cone is attached to the cleaning stave, the barrel is lowered and the shell is pushed back down the barrel through the breech. It is shaped like a cone, so that it does not hit the fuse. It can also be used if the wrong ammunition is loaded or if the gun must be unloaded and there is not safe area to fire it into.

In practice we usually stored our aiming posts in canvas bags and put them in the back of the truck. They could fit on the trails of the gun, but there was always the chance they could fall off on bumpy roads. Same with the cleaning staves. Now if you want to be historically accurate, if your gun is deployed the aiming posts should be out and assembled, not on your trails.

Hopefully those with red and white poles on the sides of their tanks or anti tank guns will now be getting out their green and brown paint and start covering over those red and white poles.

Rob Kelly

After Hours Episode 19: Pigeons Never Break

2012-05-14T07:30:00.000-04:00

After Hours 19- After recording episode 36 the dudes are chatty! We talk TV and movies, and of course Flames of War. By the end of the episode they are a complete train wreck, and Steven and Jon are revealed for the true A-holes they are.

Somethin' Else Sunday: SAGA Vikings

2012-05-13T11:17:00.000-04:00

WWPD has talked on both the podcast and the forum about trying other stuff on Sundays. I present for your amusement my Vikings for Gripping Beast's SAGA!

These are Gripping Beast plastic Viking and are a crazy good deal from The War Store. The shield transfers are by Little Big Man Studios - very easy to put on and I think they look absolutely great.

I love these figures! They are very customizable, but with that you get a fair amount of assembly time.
Steven and I are really keeping this to a 2nd tier game -- hence, we are going for table-top quality and using washes heavily.

I'm gonna beat Steven's horse-boys to death with these drunken Norsemen! No sleep 'til Hammersmith!

Check out these really awesome SAGA Vikings from TMP regular Derek H.

Somethin' Else