2012   44-31, 13 games over .500 – finishing 81-81
2011   45-26, 19 games over .500 – finishing 102-60
2010   50-25, 25 games over .500 – finishing 97-65
2009  45-31, 14 games over .500 – finishing 93-69
2008   40-26 14 games over .500 – finishing 92-70
2007   45-29, 16 games over .500 – finishing 89-73
2006   45-30, 15 games over .500 – finishing 85-77
2005    43-30, 13 games over .500 – finishing 88-74

That’s an average of 16 games over .500.

Fact 2. There really is a lot more baseball left to be played
The Phillies will play 67 games in the second half. If the Phillies were to tie their worst record under Manuel – 13 games over .500 – that would put them at 40-27.
As of Tuesday’s game, that would mean the Phillies would win, at worst, 86 games this season. (They still have three more games in the first half.)
Hitting the Manuel team average of 16 games over, would put the Phils around at 41-26.
Now you’re talking 87 wins (If they didn’t win any of their three remaining first half games).
In other words, it’s not a stretch to imagine the Phillies winning 88-89 games. This year.

Here’s where things get interesting.

Fact 3. The competition for the division is not going to blow you away.
Yes, the Phils are 7.5 back. But if they overcame that in 17 games, they surely can in 70.
As of Tuesday, the Braves are on pace to win 93 games.
However, if you take away their 12-1 start, the Braves are on pace to win 38 down the stretch and finish with 90 wins.

The Washington Nationals – who haven’t gone on a big winning streak yet – appear to be on pace for 83 wins.

The Mets and Marlins are, well, the Mets and Marlins

Fact 4. Just getting there gives you a legit chance to win.

Here’s a look at the National League teams that finished fourth and fifth in wins since 2003. Those teams now make the playoffs.

2012 Braves (94) and Cardinals (88)
2011  Cardinals (90) and Braves (89)
2010 Braves (91) and Padres (90)
2009 Rockies (92) and Marlins (87)
2008 Brewers (90) and Mets (89)
2007 Rockies (90) and Mets (88)
2006 Dodgers (88) and Phillies (85)
2005 Houston (88) and Phillies (87)
2004 Houston (92) and San Francisco (91)
2003 Florida (91) and Houston (87)

In other words, over that 10-year span, the average fourth best team in the league won 90.6 games while the fifth best team won 88.1 games
In fact, in six of 10 seasons, 88 wins gets you to the promised land under the new playoff arrangement.
In FOUR of those years, 87 wins get you to the playoffs.
Remember, since they came into being 18 years ago, wild card team has won the World Series five times (the 2011 Cardinals, 2004 Red Sox, 2003 Marlins, 2002 Angels and 1997 Marlins).
Oh yeah,.28 percent of World Series participants (said five squads, plus the 2007 Rockies, 2006 Tigers, 2005 Astros, 2002 Giants, 2000 Mets) are Wild Card winners.

Fact 5 The schedule might help the Phils.
In the second half, the Phillies have …
… 13 games left against the Braves, so they have a say in how both teams finish the year.
… 34 games at home, where they have so far played .547 ball.
… 31-game swing to finish the season that involves seven games against the Mets (6-3 against New York so far this season) and Braves (3-3); six games against the Marlins (9-4), Braves, six against Nationals (5-3); three against the Padres (2-1) and Cubs (Not played yet, but a last place team). The final six games are on the road, at Miami and Atlanta.
Just in case you thought that was bad, 44-32 record in Atlanta under Manuel and a 45-33 mark in Miami.

Conclusion
So. Do you still want to trade Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon?
No it’s not going to be easy. Or even extremely likely.
But it surely should be interesting.

As a result, spoiled Phillies’ fans are an unhappy group. Attendance is down, way down, and it seems those fans who filled the Bank in recent years are staying home blathering away on message boards about trading everybody who can be traded.

Cliff Lee (The Associated Press)

The short memories are unfortunate. The Phillies have always been a second-half team under Charlie. Just last year, a 37-51 record was followed by a 44-28 run. Repeat after me: The Phillies are not out of anything.

Having said that, it doesn’t mean that an in-season retooling won’t occur. It most definitely will. Even last year’s second-half surge came as Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Jim Thome were traded for decent prospects.

That brings me to Cliff Lee and his dazzling performance in Fenway last night in what could have been the single most important performance of the Phillies’ season — and future.

Lee is an engima. For all his brilliance, he is as equally maddening. A 22-win season in Cleveland was followed by a 7-9 start to 2009. A 17-win 2011 for the Phillies was followed by last season’s 6-9 campaign.

When he is on, Lee is an ace with a proven record of postseason dominance. So far in 2013, he is on. Others have noted that he is perhaps Ruben’s most tradeable chip.

That brings me to the surprising 32-21 Boston Red Sox. Led by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, the Sox still don’t have the pitching to match up with the Tigers or Yankees. If the Phils make Lee available, Boston would likely be a serious bidder.

Whether Lee would be a good fit in Fenway could have been in question prior to Tuesday’s game. A lefty strike-thrower, the Green Monster has the potential to be as vexing to Lee as a court date is for Lindsay Lohan.

Then Lee went out and threw an effortless four-hitter over eight innings. Ben Cherrington had to like what he saw.

So how do these trade partners match up? Pretty well, I think. If Lee is traded around the All-Star Break, he’ll be owed about $60 million over two+ years. Not an onerous amount by any means.

Boston, meanwhile, gave a (so far) bad contract to righty Ryan Dempster, who is owed about $22 million through next season. Dempster (2-5, 4.69) is a National League pitcher. He simply cannot pitch in the AL.

If the Phils pick up $10 million of Lee’s contract and Boston adds OF prospect Jackie Bradley to the deal, it makes perfect sense to me.

What do you think — good trade or bad deal for the Phightins?

“Cool Papa Bell claimed years later that his squad stung Diz for four early runs, with Gibson tagging tape-measure home runs in the first and again in the third. ‘THe peoplestarted booing,’ Bell told John Holway, ‘and Diz went into the outfield for a while; he hated to just take himself out of the game.’”

After the game, according to Bell, Dean walked by the dugout and said, “Josh, I wish you and Satchel played with me ‘n’ Paul on the Cardinals. Hell, we’d win the pennant by the fourth of July and go fishin’ the rest of the season.”
Also, that night, Connie Mack was in the crowd.
According to newspaper reports at the time, York residents weren’t happy with the white barnstormers.
Gay concludes, “If only the good people of York had realized that evening how many future Hall of Famers they’d had the privilege of watching.”
For the Southpaw’s money, York’s Eagle Park hosting Connie Mack, Satchel Paige, Dizzy Dean, Josh Gibson, Cool Poppa Bell, Judy Johnson and Daffy Dean, has to be the greatest collection of baseball talent in this city at one time.
The book doesn’t say whether Hall of Famers Judy Johnson and Ray Dandridge played in the game, but they were on Satch’s team.
I’d be willing to bet that if you could have those three pitchers, Gibson batting third, Bell leading off, Johnson and Dandridge in the infield and Connie Mack at the helm, you’d win the pennant with whatever other talent you had around you.

“The series started in York, Pennsylvania, a favorite barnstorming venue because it was roughly equidistant from Baltimore and Philadelphia; the tour then crossed the mountains to Pittsburgh, Altoona and Cleveland.”

According to Gay, Paige pitched in the fourth game. The Negro Leaguers won five-of-seven against the big leaguers.
Stengel wasn’t the only star on his squad. Hall of Famer Hack Wilson – who still holds the Major League record for runs batted in over a single season – was among the players.
More history posts
More local baseball history.
More local history.
More books in York.

Editor’s Note Did You Notice is a weekly look at some interesting numbers during the season.

Did you notice …

Justin Upton and Michael Morse are playing like Babe Ruth. Literally. Each of them has as many home runs as three teams combined. The Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have just two home runs apiece.

The Houston Astros have attempted just one stolen base attempt this year. Twenty-five year old J.D. Martinez is the culprit. It’s the only stolen base of his career.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies lead all of baseball with 10 swiped bags.

Everyone knows Chris Davis is having an impressive start to the season, with 17 runs batted in, but the New York Mets’ John Buck has 14 runs batted in. He’s driven in just under a third of the team’s 46 runs.

Blast from the past
It wasn’t that long ago that this Long Island Duck was a big league star.

Player of the day
No one else comes close: Yu Darvish was fantastic.
Stat of the day
RA Dickey walked four batters on Tuesday. He only did that twice last year.
Philling In
For better or worse, this is the new Roy Halladay.
Bird Watching
Do you believe in magic? Schmuck does.
The Capitol Gang
I continue to root for this guy.
Bats, Balls and Buccos
A former part owner is criticizing the man who runs the Pirates.

Blast from the past

Despite being an in-division rival, I find myself rooting for the Orioles. And as the team has progressed in the last two years, I have found it easier to enjoy having a winning baseball team within an hour drive.

Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (left) and players lineup prior to the game as they were introduced during opening day against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Reuters Photo

When the two teams cross paths, I will always be loyal, but there’s something about Camden Yards and the great fan base the city, and Cal Ripken Jr., has created that’s addicting.

Watching giddy O’s fans rally behind Buck Showalter and Adam Jones after years of finishing at the bottom of the AL East has been compelling. Ticket prices aren’t astronomical, and Baltimore has utilized their farm system and held on to players like Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Manny Machado.

So I ask, is it wrong to cheer from afar? Am I crossing an ethical line of true fandom?

You be the judge.

Here’s a stream-of-consciousness recap of Opening Day:
Clayton Kershaw dominated on the mound and hit a home run for the Dodgers.
Don Drysdale hit two Opening Day home runs in his career, as many as Hank Aaron.
Aaron tied Babe Ruth’s record with a homer on Opening Day in Cincinnati in 1974.
Traditionally, the Reds have opened every season at home because they were the first professional franchise.

Player of the day

You’ll read about Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw later, so this spot goes to Felix Hernandez, whom you probably didn’t see last night.

Stat of the day

It’s been 60 years since a pitcher tossed a shutout and hit a home run. Guess who it was.

Philling In

Sure, the Phillies lost, but there were some positive signs in the opening game.

Bird Watching

Five questions facing the Orioles as they open the season.

The Capitol Gang
The young guns looked good on day one. Bryce Harper went deep twice while Stephen Strasburg looked great on the bump.
Bats, Balls and Buccos

No offense, but there was no offense.

York history
Mark Hendrickson made his 2007 debut for the Dodgers, pitching three effective innings. He allowed one run on a homer to Bill Hall while striking out three in a 7-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Blast from the past