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Faktor Permintaan (Demand Factor) dan Faktor Keberagaman (Diversity Factor)

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Fri, 22 Dec 2023 10:10:00 +0000

Demand Factor adalah rasio (perbandingan) dari the maximum coincident demand dari sebuah sistem, atau bagian dari sistem, dengan the total connected load:

Demand Factor = Maximum demand (peak load) / Total connected load

The demand factor selalu bernilai < =1 or < =100%

The lower the demand factor, the less system capacity required to serve the connected load.

Contoh demand factor:

(1) A residence consumer has 10 no’s lamp of 400 W but at the same time It is possible that only 9 No’s of bulbs are used at the same time. Here total connected load is 10×40 = 400 W. Consumer maximum demand is 9×40=360 W. Demand Factor of this Load = 360/400 = 0.9 or 90%.

(2) One Consumer have 10 lights at 60 Kw each in Kitchen, the load is 60 kW x 10 = 600 kW. This will be true only if All lights are Turns ON the same time (Demand factor=100% or 1). For this Consumer it is observed that only half of the lights being turned ON at a time so we can say that the demand factor is 0.5 (50%). The estimated load = 600 kW x 0.5 = 300 kW.

Diversity Factor is rasio (perbandingan) dari penjumlahan maximum demands dari setiap individu dari berbagai sub sistem dari sebuah sistem dengan maximum demands dari seluruh sistem.

Diversity Factor = Sum of Individual Maximum Demands / Maximum Demand of the System.

The diversity factor selalu bernilai >= 1 atau >= 100% karena jumlah maximum demand setiap individu lebih besar dari maximum demand dari sistem.

Greater the diversity factor, lesser is the cost of generation of power.

Contoh diversity factor:

One Main Feeder have two Sub feeder (Sub Feeder A and Sub Feeder B), Sub Feeder-A have demand at a time is 35 KW and Sub Feeder-B have demands at a time is 42 KW, but the maximum demand of Main Feeder is 70 KW.

Total individual Maximum Demand =35+42=77 KW. Maximum Demand of whole System=70 KW

So Diversity factor of The System= 77/70 =1.1

Coincidence Factor is the ratio of the maximum demand of a system, or part under consideration, to the sum of the individual maximum demands of the subdivisions.

The reciprocal of diversity factor is coincidence factor.

Coincidence factor = Maximum demand / Sum of individual maximum demands

Expressed as a percentage (%) or a ratio less than 1.

PENUTUP

Faktor keragaman (diversity factor) memegang peranan penting dalam biaya penyediaan energi listrik. Semakin tinggi nilai faktor keragaman, maka semakin rendah biaya keseluruhan per unit yang dihasilkan.

Biaya modal pembangkit listrik tergantung pada kapasitas pembangkit listrik. Semakin rendah permintaan maksimum pembangkit listrik, semakin rendah pula kapasitas yang dibutuhkan dan oleh karena itu semakin rendah pula biaya modal pembangkit tersebut.

Dengan jumlah konsumen tertentu, semakin tinggi faktor keragaman muatannya, semakin kecil kapasitas pembangkitan yang dibutuhkan dan akibatnya biaya tetap akibat penanaman modal akan jauh berkurang.

Demikian pula faktor permintaan yang lebih tinggi berarti lebih banyak beban rata-rata atau lebih banyak jumlah unit yang dihasilkan untuk permintaan maksimum tertentu dan oleh karena itu biaya keseluruhan per unit energi listrik yang dihasilkan berkurang karena distribusi biaya tetap yang sebanding dengan permintaan maksimum dan tidak bergantung pada jumlah unit yang dihasilkan.

Oleh karena itu, perusahaan utilitas harus selalu berusaha meningkatkan faktor beban serta faktor keragaman. Upaya yang dapat dilakukan antara lain dengan mendorong konsumen untuk menggunakan energi listrik di luar jam sibuk dan pengenaan tarif yang lebih rendah untuk skema tersebut.

Sumber:

https://www.sanjaysah.com.np/2017/08/demand-factor-diversity-factor.html

https://web.pln.co.id/statics/uploads/2023/05/Statistik-PLN-2022-Final-2.pdf

JADWAL PELAJARAN

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Sat, 01 Apr 2023 07:55:00 +0000

PENGUMUMAN

HARI SENIN

HARI SELASA

HARI RABU

HARI KAMIS

HARI JUMAS

Mengenal Tariff Adjustment

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Thu, 11 Feb 2016 05:27:00 +0000

Mulai tanggal 1 Januari 2015 konsumen listrik Indonesia akan mengalami tarif listrik yang tidak hanya naik namun juga turun. Hal tersebut dapat terjadi karena adanya mekanisme tariff adjustment yang merupakan amanat dari Permen ESDM No 31 Tahun 2014 Tentang Tarif Tenaga Listrik Yang Disediakan oleh Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Perusahaan Listrik Negara.

Dengan mekanisme ini diharapkan terciptanya kelangsungan pengusahaan penyediaan tenaga listrik, peningkatan mutu pelayanan kepada konsumen, peningkatan rasio elektrifikasi, dan mendorong subsidi listrik yang lebih tepat sasaran serta penerapan penyesuaian tarif tenaga listrik (tariff adjustment) untuk beberapa golongan pelanggan tertentu.

Sesuai dengan Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 31 Tahun 2014, mulai 1 Januari 2015 terdapat 12 (dua belas) golongan pelanggan tarif non subsidi yang akan diterapkan tariff adjustment, yaitu : (1) Rumah Tangga R-1/TR daya 1.300 VA, (2) Rumah Tangga R-1/TR daya 2.200VA, (3) Rumah Tangga R-2/TR daya 3.500VA s.d 5.500VA, (4) Rumah Tangga R-3/TR daya 6.600VA keatas, (5) Bisnis B-2/TR, daya 6.600VA s.d 200kVA, (6) Bisnis B-3/TM daya diatas 200kVA, (7) Industri I-3/TM daya diatas 200kVA, (8) Industri I-4/TT daya diatas 30.000kVA, (9) Kantor Pemerintah P-1/TR daya 6.600VA s.d 200kVA, (10) Kantor Pemerintah P-2/TM daya diatas 200kVA, (11) Penerangan Jalan Umum P-3/TR dan (12) Layanan khusus TR/TM/TT.

Perubahan tarif listrik tergantung dari biaya penyediaan listrik oleh PT PLN yang dipengaruhi oleh tiga (3) faktor yaitu (1) harga bahan bakar; (2) nilai tukar rupiah; dan (3) inflasi bulanan. Apabila biaya penyediaan listrik naik maka tarif listrik juga naik, demikian juga sebaliknya.
Dengan diterbitkannya kedua peraturan ini maka diharapkan masyarakat mendapatkan manfaat berupa pelayanan tenaga listrik yang semakin baik.

Managing Implementation through Indicators

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Mon, 14 Dec 2015 03:13:00 +0000

It's always questioned whether national development has been properly manage or not. It seems planning and implementation are two different islands that seem to be disconnected. A bridge to fill the gap is compulsory to ensure a particular project creates intended impact in long term.

One of important actions can be done to managing implementable planning is using indicators which have been set in the very beginning process which also can be used as an evaluation tool. Here is simple explanation of linkages between indicators to be used for managing implementation of particular projects.

In general there are four (4) distinctive indicators to be used to manage the implementation of particular projects: (1) impact indicators; (2) effectiveness; (3) efficiency; and (4) performance. Those are going to be explored as follows.

(1) Impact indicator can be assessed through calculating the gap between outcome of the project and the baseline or it is simply: Outcome(t1) - Baseline (t0);
(2) Effectiveness can be evaluated by comparing Outcome and Baseline. The simple equation is Outcome(t1)/Baseline(t0);
(3) Efficiency is determined by comparing the Output and Input or Output(t1)/Input(t1); and
(4) Performance can be assessed by comparing the Outcome and Target or Outcome(t1)/Target(t1).

Therefore it is compulsory to set up good indicators in planning stage. Widely used criteria is SMART which stands for Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound.

Given reliable indicators lead to greater ability managing the implementation through regularly monitoring/evaluating the indicators.

‎

Public Goods - Simply Explained

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 11 Nov 2015 02:26:00 +0000

This is simple explanation of public goods which is essentially important to understand economic policies and phenomenon.  

Public Goods can be defined as Goods that simultaneously provide benefits to more one individual at the same time (joint consumption) . This type of goods has distinct characteristics as follows.

(1) Non rivalry. It means that there's no competition (rivalry) to get a similar quality of certain services. In other words, once the good is provided then additional cost to consume is zero.
(2) Non excludable. It means that it is almost impossible or very costly to exclude particular consumers (free rider problems).

Therefore, we can plot the two characteristics as x-axis and y-axis as follows.It is shown that goods cannot define clearly whether it is public or private. In the end, we can fine other types of goods i.e. club goods and common property.
Public vs Private Goods
or it can be explained by using following diagram. 

Public vs Private Goods

Few examples of public goods are services of defense, public broadcasts (radio and TV services), flood control, law enforcement, etc.

To define public or private goods, we can use simple method as follows. 

Public vs Private

Sources:
(1) Hyeon Park. International School of Urban Studies, Lecture materials

(2) Our Lovely Uncle Google

Key Success Factors - Korean Experience

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 05:09:00 +0000

It's great opportunity to have insightful lecture from Mr. Lee about what Korea has been through towards its industrialization era. This is first article about Korean experience shared to followers of SiBernas Blog.

Korean Flag
Understanding Korean History of industrialization may give us a better picture that inspire many developing countries to cope with their problems. Korea shows tremendous  successes especially in economic development. Data tells us that in terms of GDP per capita Korea (104 USD) performed well below Mexico (369 USD), Phillipines (157 usd), and Srilanka (140 usd) in 1960. However, it only took 41 years for Korea to flip the position. In 2013 GDP per capita of Korea (25,977 usd) was far above those three countries (10307 usd, 2765 usd, and 3280 usd respectively). 

The question is what are key factors leading to current result?

In short, there are three (3) aspects underpinned Korea development up to current stage: (1) Good Government; (2) Friendly Market Environment; and (3) Supporting Condition (internal and external).

Good Government  involved continuation of reforms as well as promoting coherent bureaucracies. During 60s to 70s, President showed commitment through chairing monthly Trade and Export Promotion Meeting. Reform was also being done through transparent and competitive selection processes for government employees. In the past, government had experienced to layoff 1/8 of its employees. 

Moreover, Korean Government set friendly environment for market in few ways. (1) it changed policy from import substitution to export promotion even though it's primarily because Korea was lacking of domestic fund.; (2) Government provided necessary infrastructure (energy, transportation) in timely manner; and (3) government was set currency exchange such that it promoted export policy. It is also worth to noting that Korea government set export policy that focus on few industries that grouped in heavy and chemical industries. In 1970s government decided to focus on 5 industries: (1) ship building; (2) electronics; (3) automobile; (4) steel; and (5) chemical. The focus was decided based on three criteria: (1) a chance to be very successful; (2) backward linkages; and (3) generate employment.

Finally, Government set up necessary condition to support industrialization era in two directions human and social capital. Government promoted equal education to all people which 'created ' more egalitarian people. In terms of social capital, the well known program that changed the whole story is Sae Maul movement. It succeeded to encourage citizens to change their habit to superior work ethics (competent and competitive). In fact, Korea was also gifted by external condition that bolstered economic development. China was sleeping when Korea started its development.  

In case of Indonesia, the key factors above can be adapted or adopted for its own good.

Sources:
(1) Lecture materials; Mr. Siwook Lee (Executive Director of KDI
(2) Our best uncle Google

Magic Numbers - Natural Gas Unit of Measurements

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Tue, 03 Nov 2015 03:14:00 +0000

Natural gas (NG) industry is unique in terms of its unit of measurement. Different sources use different unit that may confuse the readers who need to convert to the other units they use. SiBernas gathered nice articles on the net with regard to this issue and summarized into this article.

Natural Gas and Its Utilization
BTU (British Thermal Unit). It's non-standard unit of energy (SI uses Joule instead)  and usually used in the US and European. One (1) BTU means amount of energy to raise one (1) pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit.

1 BTU = 1055 Joule
1 MMBTU = 1 X 10^6 BTU. It is commonly unit used for bought and sold NG.

SCF ( Standard Cubic Feet/Ft^3).  It represents volume of NG at standard pressure and temperature.

1 SCF = 1020 BTUs
1 MSCF = 1X10^3 SCF = 1.02 MMBTUs(it's often said 1 MSCF ~ 1 MMBTU)

BSCF/TSCF (Billion SCF/ Trillion SCF)
As we may know, NG can substitute gasoline in transportation sector. Therefore it's good to know the head to head between the two.
GGE (Gallon of Gasoline Equivalent) . This is typical unit of CNG sold in public fueling stations.
1 GGE =114000 BTUs, but
1 GGE = 126.67 SCF (lower heating value/net calorific value). 
Note: 1 SCF only yields 900 BTUs of usable gasoline equivalent energy.

Types of Data in Research based on Scale

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Mon, 02 Nov 2015 08:43:00 +0000

Data is an essential ingredient when we conduct a research even though we only employ descriptive analysis. Understanding the types of data therefore is necessary to improve quality of the research. There are many different types of data based on different categories such as based on (1) structure; (2) character; 3) source; (4) collection time; or (5) based measurement scale. This article extracts data based on the scale. 

In general, there are four types of data called as NomOrVaRio which stands for Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio. NomOrVaRio is not universally accepted but it seems widely used. Explanation for each of those is described as follows.

First, Nominal is the lowest level data because it captures very limited information i.e. IDs or identities or discrete. It differentiates one data from the rest. There is no rank among them as well as no arithmetical equation can be done (addition, subtraction, etc). Usually, we create the Ordinal data by categorization or classification. Statistically, we can count the data as well as find the mode of the data-set. Examples of this data are:
(1) Group of female as 1 and male as 2. We cannot say 2 is better than 1.
(2) Identification for Golkar Party is 1, PDIP Party is 2, etc. 

Second, Ordinal has attribute more advance than Nominal because Ordinal data shows a rank (or level) between the data even though it cannot be used in a mathematics expression. Similarly, we create the Ordinal data by categorization or classification. Few examples are:
(1) We set 1 as elementary school, 2 as junior high school, and 3 as senior high school. Therefore we can conclude that 2 is higher than 1. 
(2) Customer satisfaction is identified using 1 for very satisfied, 2 for somewhat satisfied, and 3 dissatisfied.   

Third, Interval has more characteristics than the previous data. It shows an interval or distance between one data and the others. There is no classification or categorization. Using Interval we can calculate arithmetical equation (addition and subtraction). However, there is no 'true (absolute) zero'. Examples of this type are temperature, IQ scores, test scores. Here is an example.
(1) Test performances are shown as E for 1, D for 2, C for 3, B for 4, and A for 5. therefore we may say that B people has 2 level better than D (4-2=2), but we cannot B is twice as good as D. 

Fourth, Ratio is the highest level of data because it has all of characteristics owned by the other data types. It has 'true zero' therefore we can set all mathematics expressions using the data. 
(1) Weight of babies A, B, and C are 4 kg,3 kg, and 2 kg respectively.  It can be concluded that ratio of baby A and C is 2 (4/2=2). 

Waste to Energy (WtE) -Dukungan Pemerintah

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Tue, 21 Apr 2015 03:20:00 +0000

Tulisan SIBernas kali ini mengulas tentang pemantaan sampah menjadi energi terkait dengan dukungan pemerintah. Fasilitas WtE ini sangat penting terkait dengan upaya penurunan global warming.

Dengan adanya fasilitas WTE ini akan memberikan nilai yang sangat tinggi dalam berkontribusi melawan pengaruh pemanasan global (global warming) melalui pengurangan emisi gas rumah kaca (greenhouse gas emissions). Diperkirakan sekitar ekuivalen satu ton CO2 yang dapat dikurangi dari setiap satu ton sampah kota yang dikelola melalui kegiatan waste to energy yang diakibatkan dari (1) pengurangan emisi gas metana yang seharusnya akan ditimbulkan dari timbunan sampah; (2) pengurangan emisi CO2 yang seharusnya akan dihasilkan dari penggunaan energy fosil untuk membangkitkan tenaga listrik; dan (3) pengurangan emisi CO2 yang seharusnya akan dihasilkan dari produksi metal. (the US EPA)

WTE masuk dalam kategori sumberdaya terbarukan (renewable resource). Permen ESDM No. 19 tahun 2013 secara menyatakan bahwa pembangkit listrik berbasis sampah kota merupakan pembangkit listrik yang menggunakan energi terbarukan berbasis sampah kota. Kriteria utama sebagai sumberdaya yang terbarukan dipenuhi oleh WTE yaitu sumber energinya bersifat lokal (indigenous) dan berkelanjutan (sustainable). Fasiltas WTE mendapatkan energi yang berharga dari sampah setelah proses“reduce, reuse, and recycle” sudah dilakukan baik oleh rumah tangga, pengelola maupun pemerintah.

Fasilitas WtE memiliki kesempatan untuk menghasilkan kredit karbon yang dapat diperdagangkan (certified emission reductions/CERs) melalui mekanismes Clean Development Mechanism. CERs telah dapat diterima secara global sehingga sertifikat yang diterima oleh fasilitas WTE dapat diperdagangkan di seluruh dunia.

Selain itu, WtE sejalan dengan kebijakan nasional dalam pengelolaan sampah dimana sampah sebagaimana diamanatkan oleh UU 18 tahun 2008 maupun PP 81 tahun 2012

Kementerian ESDM mendukung sepenuhnya pemanfaatan WtE dengan terbitnya Permen 19/2013 tentang Pembelian Tenaga Listrik oleh PT PLN (Persero) dari Pembangkit Listrik Berbasis Sampah Kota. Peraturan tersebut pada intinya adalah menetapkan harga jual listrik (feed in tariff) untuk tenaga listrik berbasis sampah kota.

Permen ESDM tersebut menetapkan harga jual listrik yang sangat kompetitif untuk tenaga listrik yang berasal pengelolaan sampah. Butir-butir penting dari Permen dimaksud disusun dalam Tabel 1 sebagai berikut.

Pokok-Pokok Pengaturan Permen ESDM 19/2013

Ketenagalistrikan Nasional 2014

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Sun, 12 Apr 2015 01:53:00 +0000

Kondisi Saat Ini

Hingga akhir 2014 menunjukkan total kapasitas terpasang pembangkit 53.585 MW: ‎(1) PLN sebesar 37.280 MW (70%),‎ (2) Independent Power Producer (IPP) sebesar 10.995 MW (20%), ‎ (3) Public Private Utility (PPU) sebesar 2.634 MW(5%), ‎(4) Izin Operasi Non BBM (IO) sebesar2.677 MW (5%).
Konsumsi tenaga listrik rata-rata 199 TWh sedangkan produksi tenaga listriknya 228 TWh (hanya PLN dan IPP).
Rasio elektrifikasi nasional tercatat sebesar 84,35 persen.
Pemakaian listrik pergolongan terbesar untuk golongan rumah tangga yaitu sebesar 43%, disusul kemudian dengan industri sebesar 33%, bisnis 18% dan terakhir 6% publik.
Kondisi Kelistrikan Awal Maret 2015, total sistem kelistrikan di Indonesia terdapat 22 sistem, dengan perincian, enam dalam kondisi normal (cadangan >20 persen), 11 siaga (cadangan <1 unit terbesar) dan 5 defisit (pemadaman sebagian).
Bauran energi mix untuk pengadaan tenaga listrik. Batubara 52%, Gas 24%, BBM 11,7%, air 6,4%, panas bumi 4,4% dan energi lainnya sebesar 0,4%.

Rencana ke Depan

Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik masyarakat yang terus tumbuh, Pemerintah sedang mengupayakan penambahan kapasitas listrik sebesar 7.000 MW per tahun atau 35.000 MW dalam 5 tahun.
Menurut zona, Sumatera direncanakan sebesar 8,75 GW, Kalimantan 1,87 GW, Sulawesi 2,70 GW, Jawa-Bali 20,91 GW, Nusa Tenggara 0,70 GW, Maluku 0,28 GW dan Papua 0,34 GW.
Akan dibangun pula jaringan transmisi total diseluruh Indonesia sepanjang 46.597 kms yang terdiri dari: ‎(1) 2.689 kms untuk 70 kV; (2) 33.562 kms untuk jaringan 150 kV; (3)5.262 kms untuk 275 kV; (4) 3.541 kms untuk 500 kV; dan (5) 1.543 kms untuk jaringan 500 kvDC.

Logo PT. PLN

Economics of Electricity (Uraian Singkat)

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Thu, 09 Apr 2015 06:21:00 +0000

Pemahaman mengenai sistem ketenagalistrikan sangat penting untuk memberikan gambaran secara menyeluruh dari progres perkembangannya. Dalam tulisan SIBernas kali ini akan mengupas dan berbagai informasi mengenai beberapa konsep dasar terkait dengan sistem (dan struktur) ketenagalistrikan. Desiminasi ini diharapkan dapat memberikan pemahaman akan pembangunan energi Indonesai secara keseluruhan dan mendorong terus adanya restrukturisasi industri terkait tenaga listrik.

Sistem ketenagalistrikan saat ini berbeda secara signifikan dibanding beberapa dekade yang lalu. Sistem ketenagalistrikan modern telah memisahkan (unbundle) antara sub-sistem pembangkitan dari sub-sistem transmisi, dan sub-sistem distribusi. Pemisahan (unbundling) tersebut dipercaya mampu memberikan pelayanan ketenagalistrikan yang lebih efisien. Joscow (1997) menyatakan bahwa alasan untuk memisahkan sektor pembangkitan adalah karena pembangkitan tenaga listrik tidak lagi natural monopoly sebagai akibat dari perkembangan teknologi.

Dengan demikian, tingkat kompetisi dari masing-masing proses menjadi berbeda-beda. Pada sub-sistem pembangkitan tenaga listrik yang tidak lagi natural monopoly terjadi kompetisi secara penuh. Harga energi listrik di sisi pembangkitan tidak lagi diatur oleh pemerintah tetapi lebih cenderung ke arah persaingan usaha atau kompetisi. Sedangkan sistem transmisi dan distribusi masih diregulasi (regulated) karena masih dianggap bersifat monopoli alamai (natural monopoly). Harga listrik di sistem transmisi dan distribusi ditentukan oleh institusi yang independen (regulator). Konsep unbundling juga mensyaratkan sistem transmisi bersifat terbuka (shared infrastructure) untuk seluruh pemangku kepentingan. Hal ini juga bertujuan untuk mendorong tingkat kompetisi di sisi pembangkitan karena adanya kesetaraan akses akan sistem transmisi sangat diperlukan agar produksi listrik dapat sampai ke konsumen, yang pada akhirnya meningkatkan jumlah kapasitas pembangkit tenaga listrik.

Pemilihan struktur pasar (market structure) dari sebuah sistem ketenagalistrikan dapat ditentukan dari pihak yang memiliki pilihan atau untuk dapat memilih. Berdasarkan hal tersebut dapat di bagi empat jenis struktur yaitu (1) monopoly; (2) single buyer; (3) wholesale competition; dan (4) retail competition. Tipe yang pertama adalah bentuk monopoli secara keselurahan (vertically integrated utility) dimana tidak ada kompetisi sama sekali dan pemerintah mengendalikan secara penuh penyediaan tenaga listrik (biasanya melalui badan usaha milik negara).

Jenis yang kedua merupakan evolusi dari bentuk yang pertama dimana kompetisi mulai dibuka namun hanya di sistem pembangkitan sehingga hanya satu vertically integrated public utility yang memiliki pilihan (choices) untuk membeli energi listrik dari berbagai suppliers (monopsoni). Evolusi selanjutnya adalah jenis yang ketiga dimana sistem transmisi dipisahkan (independent) sehingga distributor lah yang memiliki pilihan untuk menentukan suplier energi baik melalui energy market (energy power pool) maupun bilateral contract. Sedangkan jenis yang terakhir adalah level kompetisi yang paling tinggi dimana konsumen dapat memilih suplier energi yang sesuai. Struktur keempat ini melepaskan kewajiban konsumen untuk membeli tenaga listrik dari perusahaan distribusi.

Alternatif Struktur Industri Listrik

Kompleks Pembangkitan Paiton

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Thu, 09 Apr 2015 06:14:00 +0000

Untuk kali ini, SIBernas sharing informasi energi terutama mengenai proyek-proyek pembangkit listrik. Sharing kali ini mengenai Komplek Pembangkitan Paiton.

1. Komplek Paiton

Komplek pembangkitan Paiton (Komplek Paiton) yang terletak di Kabupaten Probolinggo, Jawa Timur merupakan komplek pembangkitan terbesar di Indonesia dengan total kapasitas sekitar 4.725 MW atau sekitar ±16% dari total kapasitas pembangkit di Jawa-Bali yang mencapai sekitar 29.231 MW. RIncian pembangkit yang berada di komplek Paiton dirinci dalam Tabel 1 sedangkan layout dari Komplek Paiton digambarkan dalam Gambar 1.

Tabel 1. Pembangkit di Komplek Paiton

No.	Nama Pembangkit	Tahun Operasi	Pemilik	Jenis	Bahan Bakar	Kap. (MW)
1.	Paiton #1,2	1993	PT. Pembangkitan Jawa-Bali (PJB) (PLN)	PLTU- Conventional	Batubara	2x400 (800)
2.	Paiton #3 [1]	18 Maret 2012	Paiton Energy Company (PEC)	PLTU-Supercritical	Batubara	1x815
3.	Paiton #5,6	-	Jawa Power (JP)	PLTU- Conventional	Batubara	2x610 (1220)
4.	Paiton #7,8	1999	PEC	PLTU- Conventional	Batubara	2x615 (1230)
5.	Paiton #9 (PLTU Jatim 2, Paiton Baru/ FTP2)	2012	PJB (PLN)	PLTU- Conventional	Batubara	1x660
	Total					4725

Gambar 1. Layout Komplek Paiton (II.A.10/AK: 0.1)

Layout Komplek Pembangkitan Paiton

2. Paiton Energy Company (PEC)

PT. Paiton Energy Company (PEC) adalah salah satu perusahaan pembangkit listrik swasta (independent power producer/IPP). PEC dimiliki oleh International Power (40,5%), Mitsui (40,5%), Tokyo Electric Power Company/TEPCO (14%), dan PT. Batu Hitam Perkasa (5%) sebagaimana dalam Gambar 2 berikut.

Gambar 2. Shareholders PEC

PEC saat ini mengoperasikan tiga (3) unit pembangkit yang berada di komplek Paiton dengan total kapasitas mencapai 2,045 MW atau sekitar 43% dari total kapasitas pembangkitan di komplek tersebut (terbesar) atau sekitar 7% dari total kapasitas pembangkit di Jawa-Bali. Ketiga unit pembangkit dimaksud dapat diuraikan dalam Tabel 2 berikut.

Tabel 2. Pembangkit-Pembangkit PT. PEC

Keterangan	Unit 7 dan Unit 8	Unit 3
Kapasitas (MW)	2x615	1x815
Tahun Operasi	1999	2012
Teknologi	Konvensional	Supercritical
Off-taker	PT. PLN
PPA	40 tahun	30 tahun
Harga Jual Listrik	USD 3,53/kWh	USD 4,3/kWh
Nilai investasi	-NA-	USD 1,5 miliar

3. Sekilas PLTU Paiton Unit 3

PLTU Unit 3 1x815 MW mempunyai arti yang sangat penting, tercatat pembangkit ini merupakan pembangkit super-critical yang pertama di Indonesia dan merupakan yang terbesar di grid Jawa-Bali.
Dalam pelaksanaannya, ada beberapa hal penting yang perlu diketahui sebagai berikut: (1) Dari total investasi sebesar USD 1,5 miliar, 80% dari biaya tersebut atau sebesar US$ 1,2 miliar diperoleh dari pinjaman JBIC (sebesar 60%) dan dari berbagai Bank komersial Internasional (40%); (2) Pemilihan pengembang untuk Pembangkit PLTU Paiton 3 dilakukan melalui mekanisme pemilihan langsung antara PT. Jawa Power dan PT. Paiton Energi dengan pertimbangan bahwa PLTU Paiton 3 akan menggunakan beberapa fasilitas yang sama (common facilities) dengan PLTU yang dimiliki oleh kedua pengembang tersebut. Mekanisme tersebut sempat dianggap melanggar prinsip persaingan usaha yang sehat oleh Komisi Persaingan Usaha (KPPU), namun kemudian dapat dimengerti oleh Komisi.

Pemakaian Bersama Infrastruktur Transmisi dan Distribusi Tenaga Listrik

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Thu, 09 Apr 2015 05:57:00 +0000

Pemanfaatan bersama infrastruktur tenaga listrik sangat penting bagi proses restrukturisasi ketenagalistrikan Indonesia. SIBernas mengulas dan sharing informasi ketenagalistrikan terkait dengan terbitnya Permen ESDM No. 1/2015 yang mengatur hal tersebut.

a. Latar Belakang

Undang-Undang (UU) Nomor 30 Tahun 2009 tentang Ketenagalistrikan mengamanatkan peran serta yang lebih besar baik pemerintah daerah, koperasi, maupun badan usaha. Untuk itu, Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) No. 14 Tahun 2012 (dalam pasal 6) yang telah diubah dengan PP No. 23 Tahun 2014 mengamatkan perlunya pengaturan mengenai pemanfaatan bersama jaringan transmisi dan distribusi tenaga listrik melalui Peraturan Menteri (Permen).

Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) menjabarkan amanat PP di atas melalui Permen No. 1 Tahun 2015 Tentang Kerja Sama Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik dan Pemanfaatan Bersama Jaringan Tenaga Listrik. Selain melaksankan amanat dari PP, Permen ini diterbitkan dengan pertimbangan bahwa pemanfaatan bersama infrastruktur transmisi dan distribusi dapat meningkatkan penyediaan tenaga listrik dan tambahan kapasitas pembangkit. Selain itu, pemanfaatan bersama dapat mengoptimalkan tingkat utilitas dari infrastruktur dimaksud dan juga mengurangi resiko PLN terhadap penjaminan utang dalam neraca keuangan (covenant, baik dalam bentuk CICR dan DSCR).

b. Pokok-Pokok Aturan

Pokok-pokok aturan dalam Permen ESDM1/2015 adalah:

Pengaturan mengenai kerjasama antar pemegan izin usaha penyediaan tenaga listrik (IUPTL). Dimana pemegang wilayah usaha yang terlibat adalah pemegang wilayah usaha yang telah beroperasi yaitu memiliki konsumen dan memiliki pembangkit atau kontrak jual beli tenaga listrik secara curah;
Mengatur tentang pemanfaatan bersama jaringan transmisi tenaga listrik dimana diatur bahwa usaha transmisi tenaga listrik tidak dibatasi oleh Wilayah Usaha. Selain itu diamanatkan bahwa Badan Usaha Transmisi tenaga listrik wajib membuka kesempatan pemanfaatan bersama jaringan transmisi tenaga listrik;
Badan Usaha Distribusi tenaga listrik melaksanakan kegiatan di dalam Wilayah Usaha. Usaha distribusi tenaga listrik juga diminta untuk membuka kesempatan pemanfaatan jaringan distribusinya; dan
Pemegang Izin Operasi (IO) diberikan kesempatan untuk melakukan interkoneksi dengan jaringan tenaga listrik milik pemegang izin usaha tenaga listrik (IUPTL).

c. Skema-Skema Kerjasama

Dengan demikian, terdapat setidaknya empat kemungkinan skema kerjasama untuk memanfaatkan jaringan transmisi dan distribusi tenaga listrik.

Skema pertama adalah kerjasama antar pemilik wilayah usaha secara langsung untuk memenuhi kewajiban dalam menyediakan tenaga listrik di masing-masing wilayah usahanya (misal antara PT PLN dengan PT A). Secara ringkas dalam gambar sebagai berikut.

Skema kedua adalah penggunaan penyaluran oleh IPP di suatu wilayah usaha (misal PT PLN) untuk menyalurkan tenaga listrik ke wilayah usaha lainnya (misal PT A). Secara ringkas dalam gambar sebagai berikut.

Skema ketiga dilakukan antara pemegang ijin operasi (IO) diluar suatu wilayah usaha (misal PT PLN) dengan pemilik wilayah usaha lain (misal PT A). Secara ringkas dalam gambar sebagai berikut.

Skema keempat adalah Pemegang IO (pemilik captive power, misal PT X) menyewa transmisi pemilik wilayah usaha (misal PT PLN) untuk menyalurkan listrik ke perusahaan sendiri di lokasi yang berbeda.

d. Saran, Masukan dan Tanggapan

Pengaturan yang dilakukan oleh Permen ESDM 1/2015 diperkirakan dapat mendorong peningkatan kapasitas pembangkit listrik nasional karena pemain baru (new entrants) di sisi pembangkitan memiliki kesempatan untuk dapat menyalurkan produksinya ke konsumen dimanapun tanpa menghadapi kendala sunk cost yang besar untuk penyediaan jaringan transmisi/distribusi.

Namun ke depan perlu diantisipasi adanya konflik antara penyedia jaringan dan penyewa terutama menyangkut kualitas dari tenaga listrik yang disalurkan ke konsumen. Untuk itu, perlu mulai dipikirkannya pembentukan sistem-sistem ketenaga listrikan yang lebih efisien melalui pembentukan independent system operator (ISO) sebagai pemegang kuasa dari masing-masing sistem. Dengan demikian, industri ketenagalistrikan dapat melangkah ke tingkat yang lebih jauh yaitu wholesale competition (saat ini masih di tingkat single buyer).

Magic Numbers - LNG & CNG

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 08 Apr 2015 01:45:00 +0000

LNG

(1) −162°C (−260°F) of cooling temperature.

(2) 25kPa (4psi) of transport pressure.

(3) 1/‎600 of gaseous state volume.

(4) 2.4 times of CNG Volume

(5) 60% greater volume than that of diesel fuel.

(6) 70% greater volume than that of gasoline.

(7)$400/TPA: construction cost in 2004.

(8) $1,000/TPA: construction cost in 2008.

CNG

(1) 1% of its atmospheric volume.

(2) 20–25MPa (2,900–3,600psi): stored/ distributed temperature.

(3) 42% of LNG volume

(4) 25% of diesel fuel volume.

Facts - Indonesia Oil and Gas Industry

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Mon, 06 Apr 2015 08:21:00 +0000

Oil and Gas Reserves

Indonesia oil and gas reserves are limited. Compared to the world reserves, Indonesia oil is only 0.30 percent while gas is about 1.72 percent.

Oil and Gas Production

Pumping out crude oil from the earth is more difficult recently due to depleting existing reserves. Current oil production is declining. In 2010 crude oil production reached 824 thousand barrels per day which then down to 700 thousand barrels per day in 2014 (15 percent).

Oil Refinery Capacity

Oil refineries produce only 40 percent of total fuel consumption. Existing refineries are aging and not efficient. National refineries produce only 1,067.10 thousand barrels per day off total installed capacity 1,167.10 thousand barrels per day.

Given increasing economic growth as well as urbanization, fuel oil consumption is in a steady increase. Consumption increased from 56.3 million KL in 2000 to 71.3 million KL in 2013 (26.7 percent).

Fuel Imports

Increasing fuel consumption pushes up fuel importation. In 2010 fuel import accounted for 26,0 million KL and increased to 32,7 million KL in 2013.

LNG Plants

LNG plants are also limited. Total installed capacity is only 40 MTPA coming from three existing LNG Plants. In 2015 Donggi-Senoro LNG plant will operate and add 2 MTPA.

City Gas Coverage

Government has promoted natural gas consumption for domestic. One of the priority program is developing city gas particularly in areas that have been covered by existing transmission and distribution services. City gas program was launched in 2009 and by 2013 around 70 thousand households are already covered.

Facts - Indonesian Geothermal

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Sat, 04 Apr 2015 18:32:00 +0000

Indonesia has great potential of geothermal accounted for around 28,617 MWe, unfortunately geothermal utilization for energy is still limited. This page intends to share information about Indonesia geothermal energy development in the past as well as for the future.

Based on official data produced by Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia has huge geothermal potential accounted for 28.617 MWe consisted of 46 percent resources and 54.4 percent reserves.

Indonesia Geothermal Potential

Based on Energy Management Blueprint, by 2025 it is expected around 9,500 MW geothermal powerplant (GeoPP) will be built.

Geothermal Development Roadmap

There 58 geothermal working areas (GWAs) have been awarded for development.

58 GWAs

The GWAs can be grouped into two categories, existing GWAs (awarded before 2003) and new GWAs (after 2003). Almost all existing GWAs are owned by PT PERTAMINA (15 GWAs).

GWAs Owned by PT PERTAMINA

*PT PERTAMINA has been transferred 2 GWAs (Kotamobagu dan Bedugul) to government, Two companies, PT PLN and Yala Teknosa Geothermal are also owned three existing GWA.

In 2004, total installed geothermal power plant capacity was only 807 GW but then increased slowly to 1,189 in 2009 and 1,403.5 GW in 2014.

Installed Capacity 2004

GeoPP Installed Capacity 2009

Latest figure shows an 214,5 MW increase from 2009 to 2014.The biggest additional capacity came from Ulubelu GeoPP 2x55 MW in 2015 and Patuha GeoPP 1x55 MW in 2014.

GeoPP Installed Capacity 2014

In the medium development plan 2015-2019, it is expected that GeoPP will be up to 3,194.5 GW by 2019.

Planned Installed Capacity by 2019

Sources:
Internet and reports

Konsep Pemanfaatan Bersama dan Unbundling

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Fri, 19 Sep 2014 07:25:00 +0000

Lagi browsing ketemu artikel yang menarik mengenai konsep unbundling dan pemanfaatan bersama (open access) terutama terkait dengan penyediaan energi dan listrik..

Di dalam praktik internasional terdapat 4 skema pemanfaatan bersama, yaitu:

Negotiated Access, suatu Badan usaha secara sukarela membagi pemanfaatan fasilitas dengan pihak lain melalui skema business to business berdasarkan perjanjian, tanpa ada regulasi yang mewajibkan pemilik fasilitas untuk membagi pemanfaatan dengan badan usaha lain. Jadi, dalam skema ini pemilik fasilitas mempunyai hak untuk memutuskan akan membagi/tidak pemanfaatan fasiltas miliknya kepada pihak lain dan tidak ada sanksi jika tidak melakukannya.
Third-party Access, dimana terdapat regulasi yang mewajibkan badan usaha pemilik fasilitas pengangkutan untuk membagi pemanfaatan bersama pihak lain; apabila masih ada kapasitas lebih yang dapat digunakan oleh pihak lain. Dengan kata lain, pemanfaatan bersama dibatasi oleh besarnya kapasitas fasilitas yang masih tersedia. Pemanfaatan bersama bisa dilakukan jika sudah ada persetujuan dari pemilik fasilitas, pengguna dan regulator.
Open access, fasilitas yang dibangun oleh suatu Badan Usaha dimanfatkan bersama dengan prinsip first come first serve. Regulasi mewajibkan pemilik fasilitas pengangkutan membagi pemanfaatan fasilitas selama masih dalam batas maksimum kapasitas. Skema ini sekaligus memisahkan antara pengelola fasilitas (Transponder) dan pengguna (Shipper).
Common Carriage, fasilitas pipa diwajibkan untuk dapat diakses seluruh pengguna tanpa batasan kapasitas. Dasar penggunaan melalui penyesuaian alokasi kapasitas pengguna,jadi prinsip dalah semua harus dapat menggunakan melalui penyesuaian kapasitas. Dengan kata lain, siapapun pengguna yang memenuhi syarat berhak mendapatkan akses untuk menggunakan fasilitas dengan konsekuensi mengurangi alokasi penggunaan fasilitas oleh pihak lain.

Sedangkan untuk konsep unbundling didalam praktik internasional (pengelolaan gas bumi di Eropa) dikenal 4 bentuk Unbundling, yaitu:

Account unbundling: keuangan dari kegiatan infrastruktur harus terpisah dari keuangan kegiatan suplai
Functional unbundling: keuangan maupun manajemen kegiatan infrastruktur harus dipisah dari kegiatan suplai
Legal Unbundling: kegiatan infrastruktur dan kegiatan suplai masing-masing berada dibawah bendera entitas legal yang berbeda. Namun, masih dapat berada dalam struktur perusahaan induk, sehingga perusahaan induk masih memiliki kepemilikan.
Ownership Unbundling: kegiatan infrastruktur dan kegiatan suplai harus dilakukan dan dimiliki oleh entitas yang berbeda dan masing-masing entitas ini tidak boleh mempunyai kepemilikan di dalam sekaligus kedua aktivitas tersebut.

Proyek Donggi-Senoro LNG (DSLNG)

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Mon, 23 Jun 2014 04:41:00 +0000

LNG menjadi bahan energi Indonesia di masa depan. Peran dari gas bumi akan terus meningkat. Kembali SIBernas mengulas dan sharing informasi energi Indonesia yang disusun dari berbagai sumber.

Sekilas mengenai LNG

LNG atau Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) adalah gas bumi yang didinginkan pada suhu yang sangat rendah, sekitar -160 derajat , setelah melalui proses penghilangan air dan pengotor lainnya seperti carbon dioxide, sulfur, and mercury. Melalui proses pendinginan gas menjadi cair maka volume akan turun menjadi sekitar 600 kali sehingga menjadi feasible untuk ditransportasikan melalui kapal. Proses pencairan ini dilakukan di kilang LNG (LNG Plant). LNG terbentuk dari methana sedangkan LPG utamanya terbentuk dari hydrocarbon yang lebih berat dari methana (misalnya propana dan butana).

Rantai nilai dari LNG (LNG value chain) selalu melibatkan berbagai tahapan termasuk produksi gas, fasilitas gas, proses pencairan, penyimpanan sebelum pengiriman, fasilitas regasifikasi dan distribusi ke konsumen.

Secara umum LNG memiliki berbagai keuntungan sebagai sumber bahan bakar: (i) volume 600 kali lebih banyak daripada gas sehingga lebih murah dan gampang untuk ditranportasikan dalam jarak yang panjang; (ii) bahan pembentuk LNG yaitu methana adalah bahan bakar fosil yang paling bersih.

Lokasi Proyek:

Kilang LNG terletak di Kabupaten Banggai, Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah dan terletak sekitar 25 km sebelah tenggara Luwuk. Luas proyek sekitar 100 ha menghadap Selat Peling.

Lokasi Proyek LNG Donggi Senoro

Skema Bisnis

Proyek Donggi-Senoro (DS) LNG merupakan proyek unbundling antara sisi hulu (upstream) dan sisi hilir (downstream). Sisi hulu merupakan sisi produksi gas bumi sedangkan sisi hilir merupakan proses pengilangan gas ke cair (LNG).

Business Chain

Business Chain LNG DS

Profil Proyek Kilang LNG

Deskripsi singkat proyek adalah sebagai berikut:

Nllai proyek USD 2,8 miliar (pengeboran di Blok Senoro-Toili US$ 600 juta, dan Blok Matindok US$ 275 juta)
Proyek terdiri dari single train LNG plant.
Kapasitas kilang adalah 2 juta LNG per tahun dengan menggunakan teknologi Air Product and Chemicals Inc. (APCI). Setara dengan sekitar 45,000 B/D crude oil equivalent),
Associated condensate (approximately 2,300-2,500 B/D crude oil equivalent).
Infrastruktur pendukung yang ikut dibangun adalah jetty untuk suplai dan peralatan, penyimpanan LNG dan LNG Loading jetty.
Proses konstruksi telah dimulai pada 28 Februari 2011 dam direncanakan beroperasi pada akhir tahun 2014. Dengan main contractor untuk proses konstruksi dan JGC Corporation dan PT. JCG Indonesia.

Pengembang DSLNG

DSLNG merupakan perusahaan investasi asing yang didirikan pada 28 Desember 2007 dengan rincian sebagai tabel di bawah.

Company Name	PT. Donggi-Senoro LNG
Location	Jakarta, Indonesia
Capital (as of End of December, 2010)	64.5million US$
Shareholders (as of End of December, 2010)	Mitsubishi Corporation (MC) 51%, Pertamina Energy Services PTE.LTD29%, PT Medco LNG Indonesia 20%
Shareholders (after the final investment decision/FID)	Sulawesi LNG Development Limited (MC 75%, Kogas 25%) 59.9%, PT Pertamina Hulu Energi 29%, PT Medco LNG Indonesia 11.1%
Description of Business	Liquefaction and sales of natural gas
Established	28th December, 2007
LNG Plant Location	Uso area, Central Sulawesi Province, Sulawesi Island

Suplier Gas

DSLNG akan menerima gas bumi dari produsen hulu total sebesar 335 mmscfd yang disuplai dari:

Lapangan gas Senoro dengan volume sebesar 250 mmscfd oleh (i) PT PHE Tomori Sulawesi (50%), (ii) PT Medco E&P Tomori Sulawesi (30%) and Tomori E&P Limited (UK) (20%);
Lapangan gas Matindok dengan volume sebesar 85 mmscfd oleh PT Pertamina EP.

Pembeli

Hasil produksi LNG sebesar 2 juta ton LNG per tahun (MTPA) akan dijual ke Jepang dan Korea mulai akhir tahun 2014 sebagaimana Heads of agreement(HoA) untuk the LNG sales and purchase agreement (SPA) yang telah ditandatangani.

a. Chubu Electric, 1.0 mtpa selama 13 tahun (Jepang),

b. Kyushu Electric, 0.3 mtpa selama 13 tahun (Jepang)

c. KOGAS, 0.7 mtpa selama 13 tahun (Korea).

Harga Jual

Slope harga (kurva S) 7% untuk harga minyak mentah Jepang (Japanese crude cocktail/JCC) di bawah US$45 per barel dan 12% untuk JCC di atas US$45 per barel.

Kisaran harga adalah US$6,2 per juta Btu dan hampir mencapai US$10 per juta Btu pada harga JCC US$100 per barel.

Sedangkan perkiraan margin (IRR) yang diharapkan adalah 10%.

Berdasarkan perhitungan, dengan asumsi proyek berjalan 13 tahun dan harga minyak mentah US$70 per barel, negara diperkirakan memperoleh pendapatan US$6,7 miliar.

Sumber:

http://www.donggisenorolng.co.id

http://selayaronline.com/?m=bWVudT1jb250ZW50JmdpZD0yMDA4MTEyMiZhaWQ9MTIzNTc1NzMyNCZwYWdlPTE=

Cointegration Test

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 18:53:00 +0000

Cointegration test is one of important procedures in econometrics. It's confusing.

Here is the basic procedure:

Test each series to see if both of them are non-stationary, and have the same order of integration.
If both series are (say) I(1), then construct a VAR model for the 2 variables - this will require choosing the maximum lag-length.
Test the residuals of the VAR model to see if the errors are (a) independent; and (b) normally distributed.
Use Johansen's methodology to test if the 2 series are cointegrated.
In step 6, take account of the structural breaks in the trends of the data, if any. To do this, use the methods introduced by Johansen et al. (2000).

The complete setup and example you may follow this useful link.
http://davegiles.blogspot.com/2011/05/cointegrated-at-hips.html

Natural Gas Industry - Overview

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 06:41:00 +0000

Natural gas industry can be divided into three main functions/services: production/wellhead, transportation/pipeline, and distribution.

Productions/wellheads
In this segment natural gas is produced through exploration and exploitation gas fields. From well heads gas is collected to processing facilities and formed into suitable gas for transportation. US natural gas reserves is about 4% of total reserve in the world. In 1981 about 12000 field producers existed and all markets were not concentrated.

Natural gas price (wellhead) was regulated from the 1950s to the 1970s. Wellhead prices that were sold interstate were regulated since 1954 by Federal Power Commission (FPC). Therefore there were two types of gas prices: regulated interstate and unregulated intrastate (much higher price). The result was an allocative distortion in natural gas market.

Since 1970s Congress gradually repealed price regulation on the premise that the market for production was competitive. By the end of 1993 wellhead gas was totally unregulated.
For an example price of natural gas delivered to residential customers in Illinois increased by 18.7% from period 1998-1999 to period 1999-2000.

Pipelines
Interstate pipelines transport natural gas from the gas fields to the market areas. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has jurisdiction over these pipelines particularly the rates and terms and conditions.

Unlike electricity transmission pipelines control their own operations without any formal coordination in the network. 25 pipelines accounted for 90% volume in 1987. Most LDCs served by 3 or fewer pipelines. In 1938 Federal Power Commission (FPC) controlled interstate pipelines. The rates were set under rate of return regulation (costs of services plus ‘profit’) on long term contracts usually for 20 years.

In 1985 pipelines could offer unbundled services in nondiscriminatory basis to all shippers. Furthermore FERC Order 636 required pipelines to separate gas sales from transportation.
In addition intrastate pipelines transport gas within a state’s boundaries and therefore they are regulated by state commissions. About 30 percent of the total pipeline miles in the U.S. represent intrastate pipelines. In some cases pipelines although receiving gas from interstate pipelines is exempt from FERC jurisdiction because the delivered gas is consumed only within state.

Distribution
Local distribution company (LDC) delivers natural gas the city gate (point at which the LDC receives natural gas from pipelines) to the end users. LDC is a natural monopoly service and has exclusive rights to distribute gas and regulated by state public utility commission. Compared with interstate and intrastate pipelines, local distributors serve a much larger number of customers at a much lower throughput per customer.

LDC may provide both bundled sales services and unbundled services. In bundled service, the LDC buys and resells to retail customers both the gas commodity and interstate transportation. Several states also have opened competition in retail market which allows customers to purchase their gas from alternative suppliers.

Prior to FERC Order 636 (1992), retail gas utilities procured much of their city-gate supplies from the interstate pipelines under long-term contracts for the gas commodity, transportation, and off-system storage services. Order 636 caused gas utilities to procure more of their gas supplies separately from transportation service. Consequently, since 1992, gas utilities have played a greater role in managing their gas procurement practices.

State commissions regulate retail prices charged by LDC, generally on the basis of cost of service (including a return on investment and depreciation). Gas price is pass-through subject to purchased gas adjustment (PGA). Illinois Commerce Commission has approved alternative regulation for gas costs based on company’s performance in 1999.

There were 11 investor-owned gas public utilities in Illinois in 2009. The largest is Nicor with about 2.17 million customers followed by People Gas, Ameren IP, and North Shore with 830 thousand, 421 thousand, and 158 thousand customers respectively. The most expensive in People Gas with 128.5 cents/therm followed by AmerenIP with 125.02 cents/therm, North Shore with 118.71 cents/therm, and Nicor with 101.23cents/therm.

Natural Gas Regulatory History

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 05:40:00 +0000

Early history
Natural Gas Act in 1938
Real government involvement in natural gas industry started in 1938 when Natural Gas Act (NGA) issued. NGA mandated Federal Power Commission (FPC) established in 1920 to rule interstate natural gas delivery due to heavily concentrated and market power in interstate pipelines.

In 1954
In 1954 Supreme Court decided based on Phillips Petroleum vs. Wisconsin case that wellhead gas prices were regulated by FPC because there was evidence of excessive prices charged by producers. Therefore since 1954 interstate pipeline and wellhead prices were regulated but not intrastate pipeline. The FPC adopted national price ceilings for the sale of natural gas (wellhead) into interstate pipelines.

The regulation of natural gas prices created economic incentives for producers to divert interstate gas to the unregulated intrastate market where they could obtain higher prices. The regulated prices dampened the incentive to invest in the production of natural gas, which led to the gas shortages in the 1970's. the regulations that were supposed to protect interstate customers from high prices of gas forced them to consume the even higher priced alternative fuels.

In 1977 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) replaced FPC and took over all FPC responsibilities.

NGPA in 1978
To overcome the problem Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) was issued in 1978. NGPA while allowing higher prices for new gas wells it kept all old wells selling at the existing prices. In other words, all new gas was to be decontrolled from 1985 (price ceiling gradually increased/phase out) but gas from wells begun before 1977 was to remain controlled.

Open access era
FERC Order 436 in 1985
The industry evolved further. FERC issued order 436 which separated gas transportation (pipelines) from bundled merchant services on voluntary basis. In other words, Pipelines did not require offering transportation only services but if they did, access rate must not be nondiscriminatory. This order started open access era in natural gas industry.

NGDWA 1989
In 1989 Natural Gas Wellhead Decontrol Act eliminated all remaining wellhead ceiling by 1993. Thus, allowing the market to completely determine the price of natural gas at the wellhead.

FERC Order 636 in 1992
The FERC Order 636 in 1992 revised Order 436 by requiring (mandatory) pipelines to separate gas sales from transportation and allowing open access to pipeline transportation for gas producers and consumers. Order 636 also allowed firm holders of pipeline capacity to resell or release their capacity to other shippers and required pipelines to permit shippers to use flexible receipt and delivery points.

Regulatory transformation changed the industry dramatically from supply shortage in the 1970s to surplus in the 1980s. In 1987 natural gas provided 22% of total US primary energy sources and 45% of all delivered to residential.

Recent Industry
GCPP in 1999
In 1999 Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) approved Nicor Gas proposal of alternative regulation for gas costs called Gas Cost Performance Program (GCPP). The performance based regulation (PBR) issued among others to respond FERC’s restructuring program particularly deregulation of wellhead gas prices and services as well as separation merchant function of interstate pipelines. This required local distribution company (LDC) to manage its own portfolio of wellhead gas supplies and transportation services. PBR works by comparing “a benchmark” with company actual gas costs and the surplus or deficit will be shared between company and customers.

FERC Order 637 in 2000
Several problems had arisen after Order 636 issued. Therefore FERC Order 637 revised some orders among others (i) waived the price ceiling for short-term released capacity (less than one year) until September 2002; (ii) permitted pipelines to propose contracts for capacity with peak/off-peak an term differentiated rate structures.

Today's natural gas market is again in the process of change, and is substantially different operationally and economically from away back in 1970s. Upstream and downstream wholesale markets are maturing as well as financial markets with a variety of options and futures contracts.

Common Acronyms in Natural Gas Industry

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 19:35:00 +0000

LDC = Local Distribution Company
A company that provides natural gas distribution services to the customers in a particular service territory.

FPC = Federal Power Commission
Federal agency required by Natural Gas Act 1938 among others to regulate natural gas industry.

NGPA = Natural gas policy act
Established in 1978 among others intended to remove or reduce price control on the wellhead gas.

Btu = British thermal unit
Standard measurement of heat energy

PGA = Purchased gas adjustment
Gas costs adjustment passed through to customers subject to Commission review and approval.

FERC = Federal Energy Regulation Commission
Federal entity established to regulates interstate public utilities such as power transmission and interstate natural gas pipeline.

GCPP = Gas Cost Performance Program
A petition proposed by Nicor to use alternative regulation in gas supply

PBR = Performance based regulation
An alternative regulation to traditional regulation that compares company’s performance to determined benchmark.

CGI = Consumer Governmental Intervenors
An collectively organization referring to Citizens Utility Board and and the People of Cook County that represents the interests of utility consumers.

PUA = Public Utility Act
Illinois state regulation regarding public utility services

NRRI = National Regulatory Research Institute
Serves as a research instrument to its dues payers founded by National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners

EIA = Energy Information Administration
US governmental body which provides official energy statistics.

Model identification in time series - ARMA (p,q)

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 03:23:00 +0000

ARMA (p,q) model is commonly used in time series analysis. Therefore it is essential to be able to identify the appropriate ARMA (p,q) model for the particular series. Employing correlogram and partial correlogram to help in the identification process is common. Basically, correlogram and partial correlogram are plot diagrams of the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) respectively.

The auto-correlation function (ACF) can be defined as a set of correlation coefficients between the series and lags of itself over time. While the definition of partial auto-correlation function (PACF) is the partial correlation coefficients between the series and lags of itself over time.

1. Autoregressive (AR) model
The AR model is a model which includes lagged terms of the time series itself.
We conclude that the series is AR process if

the PACF displays a sharp cutoff
while the ACF decays more slowly (i.e., has significant spikes at higher lags) or oscillates (exponentially decays).

Moreover, the lag at which the PACF cuts off is the indicated number of AR terms.

2. Moving Average (MA) model
The MA model is a model which includes lagged terms on the noise or residuals.
The patterns for MA process as follows

the ACF of the differenced series displays a sharp cutoff
while the decays slowly or oscillates (exponentially decays).

The lag at which the ACF cuts off is the indicated number of MA terms

3. ARMA model
This is just a combination of MA and AR terms. Therefore the pattern shows combination of AR and MA process.

Thus, we may head on to following table.

A Problem with Natural Monopoly

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 04:42:00 +0000

Natural monopoly happens when, at the socially optimal quantity output (q), a single firm is able to produce total output at a lower total cost than multiple firms do. It means that only single firm serves the market and it is called as subadditivity. One obvious example is electricity industry due to its peculiar behavior e.g. large fixed-cost and non-storability. In other words, Natural monopoly occurs when in the long run, average cost (AC) is declining as demand (output) increases because the total cost is dispersed over output level for long period and thus declining AC will push down MC below it.

Given only one firm is operating in the market, firm will act to maximize its profit and it will choose to produce output (q) where its marginal revenue (MR) is equal to marginal cost (MC). We know that it creates allocative and productive inefficiencies (deadweight losses/DWL). See figure 1.

Therefore, government steps in when natural monopoly exists. But, the problem is not over. Regulator is in onerous position because the two available choices are not economic efficient. First, when the efficient price is imposed (P=MC), firm will make a loss (see figure 2). So this is not an option.

The second option is set price equal to average cost (P=MC). This condition also creates inefficiency (DWL) and firm makes profit. It seems that this is not suitable solution. See figure 3.

Thus, how to set appropriate price in natural monopoly is not trivial problem.

Unit Root Test in Eviews (Video)

noreply@blogger.com (aktivitas kelas) — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 03:29:00 +0000

Unit root test is essential if one wants to perform causality test among variables. This test can be conducted with help popular software Eviews. I have found video tutorial on Youtube and embedded the video here.

You may see the video on Youtube or in here.