Yawkey Way Academy

My New Project

2014-11-18T11:36:00.000-05:00

I am currently working on writing my first novel. I have created a new blog to give updates on the progress as well as to give my general musings.

http://tdpatterson.blogspot.com

Until I figure out the domain to buy for it.

Locking Up Xander Bogaerts

2014-04-14T22:48:00.000-04:00

It's fairly obvious that once a team in this era finds someone they believe in they strive hard to lock them up to a long term deal. The team gets cost certainty, usually some free agency years bought and a solid bargaining chip, while the player gets guaranteed money and avoiding distracting arbitration hearings during their last three seasons. Coming to an agreement can be beneficial to both parties. It's never to early to look at this as the Rays were very proactive with Evan Longoria and have made out very well.

The question is when can you decide as a team that the player has solidified their role and will not suddenly need a return to Triple-A in June to work on hitting sliders or perhaps to try moving to a new defensive spot. Just being a top prospect does not always assure you of a roster spot. Looking at Mike Trout you see someone who everyone knew nearly two years ago was here to stay, but the Angels and Trout choose this spring to reach an agreement.

If the Red Sox want to make an offer they would need to look at players signed in their first year or two and what value they would be worth. Just this week Jedd Gyorko signed an extension giving him five more years after this season at $35M and an option for 2020 at $13M. The comparison to Gyorko would surely be one the Red Sox would bring to the table if and when they talk to Xander Bogaerts as well as updating the Evan Longoria deal.

In 2008 during his first season with the Rays, Longoria signed a six year deal worth $17.5M with three option years at $7.5M, $11M and $11.5M for the options. This was after only six major league games. The team knew they had a talent they wanted locked up for a good long time. Now that contract was signed awhile ago and before the new TV money started quickly raising player values, but Gyorko is just this week and can give some perspective.

At the time they signed their deals Longoria had 0 career fWAR in the majors and was difficult to project because of this. On the other hand Gyorko has one full season already and a total of 2.1 fWAR if you account for his slow start this season. Bogaerts is much closer to Longoria in this case with only 31 games played and 0.3 fWAR totaled in that time.

Based on this value wise you'd have to expect any deal for Bogaerts for the guaranteed years to start closer to Longoria and then account for inflation. Based on his current projections and accounting for his peak in his late 20's I would put his value through arbitration at around $30M with a conservative projection. If you start to include FA years I would take the $13M option that Gyorko signed as a starting point.

Going a bit less conservative and making a solid offer to Bogaerts I would like a potential contract offered at this time to be for seven years (replacing his current 2014 deal) at $45M. Then attach an option for one year at $15M with a strong buyout and perhaps some kind of escalators for the option to raise that season only.

The Red Sox also would like to avoid a repeat of what happened with Jacoby Ellsbury. A player with a solid fanbase, although not as big apparently as we all remembered, who spent years openly flaunting his interest in trying to go elsewhere. Even if they don't come to an agreement this year hopefully Bogaerts will be more open to talks and a long term future with the Red Sox.

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Game 9: Day After Thoughts

2014-04-10T08:43:00.004-04:00

Jake Peavy only gave up one run and the eight strikeouts was impressive, but the walks continue to be concerning. I'll give him a small amount of slack as the strike zone was terrible last night. Here is the zone against right handed hitters.

The Red Sox have a big problem when David Ortiz is done by retirement or age. They have no one in the system who can match his skills or even 3/4 of it. This maybe the one place the team has to make plans to sign a big name fee agent some time in the near future to replace a 30 home run hitter with a .300/.400/.500 type line.
Uehara is the best pitcher with 250+ IP from 2009 to today as I showed on Twitter last night.

Uehara from 2009 to 2014 (K/BB of 8.89) Next closest with 250+IP is Cliff Lee at 6.34
— Troy Patterson (@TroyPatterson) April 10, 2014

Jackie Bradley Jr has a solid minor league walk skill, but until yesterday he had not shown that as much at the major league level. That all changed as he worked three walks for the old 0 for 0 at the plate.
Not sure what could defend letting A.J. Pierzynski bat and then Grady Sizemore run instead of just sending Sizemore up to bat. Wasting two players and your bench catcher like that seems way out of place for this Sox team often afraid to use the bench catcher as it is. I could only find Pierzynski having 3 AB versus Alexi Ogando before yesterday and was 1 for 3. Sizemore as more AB vs Ogando going 1 for 4 with a walk. Matchups seems a wash and Sizemore should have been at bat in that spot.
Today we get to see if I was right about Clay Buchholz. The Yankees lineup is not what it has been and while still a test for Buchholz I like the match up.

The 2014 Clay Buchholz

2014-04-08T21:28:00.004-04:00

The first start for Clay Buchholz this season was not pretty and a lot of the early numbers don't suggest he's gotten better with rest. His velocity is down across the board and in his first game he threw a very significant amount of change ups in the game. Many are righting him off already and I've definitely been discouraged by what we have seen, but there are some positives as well.

Although his velocity has dropped from a high of 94 mph and a recent average of 92 mph from 2011 to 2013 to 90 mph this April he's hasn't been a strikeout per inning pitcher since 2008. Since then he's relied on pitches like his cutter and change-up to get batters off balance. While a drop in velocity might spell even less strikeouts per game he was able to still sit down 3 in his 4.1 IP the other night.

A velocity problem that he might have is his change-up. Buchholz has not lost any speed on his change and that means the difference between fastball and change has decreased. This can often be less deceptive to hitters and result in more balls in play for power. That wasn't the case in Buchholz first start as the change was a positive value by linear weights, was only put in play three times out of 15 pitches and resulted in two strikeouts to one single. As long as he doesn't become predictable with a higher usage of changes this along with his cutter will be required for continued success.

Looking at direct sabermetric outcomes Buchholz was not terrible in his first start. He had three strikeouts to no walks. Had 10 grounders out of 21 balls put in play and 54 strikes for 75 percent strikes. His biggest failing in his first start were all things out of his control. His BABIP stands at .550 right now along with a 40 percent HR/FB rate. Neither of those numbers are going to maintain and looking at his xFIP* at 3.12 perhaps we shouldn't be to worried just yet.

*Using xFIP since FIP itself does not account for the abnormally high HR/FB.

The other thing worth keeping in mind was the temp was still in the 40's during the game and could have hampered Buchholz velocity. He's 2 mph down from last season in one cold temperature game. That could change when his next turn comes in the rotation unless temperatures fail to stay warmer.

On the other hand this is base on a lot of data from a single game. While he did strikeout three batters and walk no one he was hit around pretty solidly by the Brewers. He gave up two home runs and both his cutter and fastball were hit hard. During his best season of 2010 and the parts of 2013 when he was healthy his best pitches were his fastball and his cutter. His change, curve and slider have all been used with less positive results and more has a show pitch.

Base on the start by Jon Lester and John Lackey the Red Sox really need Buchholz to step up as a number three pitcher. If he truly reinvents himself with a higher rate of change-ups in his approach we'll have to give it some more time to see if that can work for him. If that high change number was simply a result of only getting through 4.1 innings and after a few more starts he evens out then he'll have to show more results with his fastball and cutter.

photo credit: jeffcutler via photopin cc

Clay Buchholz Dominates for 74 pitches (9/10/2013)

The Henry Owens Hype Train

2014-04-03T23:00:00.000-04:00

Photo By Kelly O'Connor
sittingstill.smugmug.com

In a rain shortened six inning game last night the Portland Sea Dogs defeated the Reading Phillies by a final of 5-0 to open their 2014 season. The big news just happens to be prospect Henry Owens looked dominant and completed the game without allowing a single hit. Now that's not officially a "no-hitter", but certainly a great start to his 2014 season and more reason to get excited about the towering prospect.

In the six innings last night Owens had nine strikeouts to go with only two walks. The strikeout total is what he does best, but walks are what Owens has struggled with. A two walk total over six innings is actually an improvement for him as he normally throws one walk every two innings in his pro career so far. This is the number we should be watching every night when Owens starts. His walks were also contained to the first inning and he went right at the hitters after that.

Looking deeper we can see he threw 59 strikes in 86 pitches for a 68 percent rate of strikes. Very impressive for a pitcher known to have control questions. He won't be that high every night (since only one pitcher last year hit that level for a whole season), but getting off on the right foot could raise confidence he could control those numbers in the majors.

While we talk a lot about walk rate and how important it is it's often the last thing for some pitchers to learn and is the difference between Daniel Bard and Randy Johnson. Both could strike out 10 or more batters every nine innings, but while Johnson had terrible control in the minors and even his MLB career start was rocky with BB/9 numbers from six all the way to 8 at Double-A.

Here is my disclaimer: Owens is not going to be Johnson. He does not have the same velocity and that will limit him to a ceiling of a number two starter. That said he needs to do the same things to grow into his body and here is a good explanation from Marc Hulet in the Fangraphs 2014 Red Sox Prospect guide:

The highly-projectable Owens is all arms and legs, which gives him deception, but also leads to command/control issues. Like with a lot of tall, young pitchers it may take time for the pitcher to train himself to repeat his delivery on a consistent basis.

The road to the majors will be completely decided on Owens control and walk numbers. If he can keep a walk rate around three as he did tonight he will be moving on to Triple-A sooner rather than later. It will also be interesting to see what his ground ball numbers look like as tonight he had 4 ground outs against and no fly outs. If he can strikeout this many hitters, get a ground ball number above 40 percent and walk less than one batter every three innings we should be very familiar with Owens in Boston in the very near future.

*It's a bit tough to take seriously a team (Reading) that leads off the first inning by bunting for an out and then also bunts for an out again in the third.

Mike Napoli Age Curves

2014-04-02T21:27:00.002-04:00

Not only did I support the signing of Mike Napoli in 2013, but I was supportive of the new two year deal to keep him through the end of 2015. He's a very powerful hitter and his defense at first base has shocked everyone. He's now 32 years old and as we all no doubt know there is an aging curve that is not nice to high K guys in their thirties.

According to some work on Fangraphs players are now striking out much more with age than seen just a few years ago. The graph below is from that work done by Jeff Zimmerman and shows how from 1998 to 2005 players would slowly add 2 percentage points to there K rate from the age of 29 to 37. Now you can see on the red line that players are gaining that same 2 percentage points from 24 to 29 and then another 4 percentage points from 29 to 37 years old.

Obviously one player is a small sample but let's see how that compares to Napoli over his career. At the age of 24 and 25 Napoli made his debut and in those two season combined for a K% of 26 percent. That should be his peak according to the modeling, but Napoli enjoyed a slightly delayed peak. Over the next four seasons Napoli had a K% averaging 23 percent. Here is the career for Napoli compared to the current MLB average.

He got better until his final year in Anaheim where he suddenly had real trouble and jumped 7 percentage points to a 30 percent strikeout rate. The funny thing is he wasn't that much different at the plate. He swung only slightly more at pitches in and out of the zone, plus he had a slight drop in contact. So it's tough to tell what happened in 2012 to make him strike out 30 percent of the time.

The difference in 2013 was it was clear why he was striking out so much. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone dropped from a career 77 percent to only 57 percent. He saw a lot of junk as well with only 43 percent of pitches in the zone and only 50 percent first pitch strikes. All of this was bad news for Napoli as he posted solid numbers overall his BABIP was a career high .367. That would regress in 2014 and without better contact numbers the contract could be regrettable.

Now there is two ways you could view his 2012 and 2013 seasons. He had better luck in his 2008 to 2011 seasons in partial seasons splitting time at catcher and he should have been declining from the 26 percent we saw in his first two years and by 31 he would be around 29 percent, which is fairly close to what he posted. The other option is he hit a wall in 2012 and something changed.

I'm a believer in the models and think he was just "lucky" in his contact numbers during his late twenties. Then in 2012 he came back to the model and displayed what is probably his true skill. What does that mean for 2014 and 2015 is the big question. If he follows the model and is a 29-31 strikeout guy the past two seasons we should expect a K% of 30-32 percent each season.

Based on that model he should still hold his value with huge power and the positive defense. Of course a decline in BABIP might make him slightly less valuable, but I don't think a sudden increase in strike outs from what we have already seen will be a major problem for Napoli during his current deal.

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Opening Day Pitch F/x: Jon Lester

2014-03-31T23:06:00.000-04:00

We all know what opening day really means right? It's the first available day of Pitch F/x data for pitchers in MLB parks. It truly is the greatest day of the year. Ok maybe I shouldn't go that far, but the only thing that might be better is Pitch F/x when a position player is forced to pitch.

Monday say Jon Lester make his first start of 2014 after ending contract talks with the Red Sox. He threw a solid game giving up only two runs, but taking the loss as the team was unable to take any of the chances they had with runners in scoring position. Based on his numbers it was a great day for Lester with 7 IP and eight strikeouts to only one walk. He also had an amazing 70 percent of pitches thrown for strikes. To put it lightly Lester was on today.

His velocity was also up to par for him with his pitches all at or even slightly above in some cases his 2013 average velocities. His fastball averaged 92.5 mph topping out at 94.8 mph. His velocity as you can see below dipped slightly over the course of the game, but that amount is fairly normal and not surprising.

According to Linear Weights* all of his pitches were plusses today. His fastball did result in all of his hits against except one off a cutter. At the same time the fastball was a strike 76 percent of the time and got 6 swing and misses. There really dosn't seem to be anything here other than Lester being as dominating as he was at any point last season when he was pitching really well.

*Linear weights account for the value of an outcome of any pitch and assign how many runs it saves or costs the pitcher. In this case a negative means he saved his team that many "runs".

If you take a look at the charts above the top one is all of Lester's pitch movements from 2013. The bottom one is Monday's start. It's very similar although the scale is different making it look a bit off. Once you look at the numbers you see Lester was right on the mark.

I don't think anyone had much concern about Lester coming out of spring, but it's good to see his velocity is on for such an early season game. It's still going to be cold or cool at the next few games and his ability to locate pitches, get good movement and throw at velocity was an encouraging sign.

Although I wrote the other day my opinion on the contract negotiations with Lester I feel my opinion has changed over the last few days as well as today. I'm more resolved that the team should be willing to extend themselves some to avoid allowing Lester to dominate in 2014 with no long term deal in place. At this point it's likely Lester does more to cost the team in dollars and years by allowing him to pitch out 2014. That said I would still consider the Max Scherzer rumored deal as to high to go to at six years and $140M. Let's hope they can still get something done before Lester gets to free agency.

Graphs from Brooks Baseball and Fangraphs

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Will Middlebrooks Amazing Spring Contact

2014-03-30T23:12:00.001-04:00

Don't trust spring numbers...don't trust spring number...repeat. OK so the golden rules are don't trust spring numbers and never read to much into the early season numbers. There is nothing significant seen in 50-60 PA during the spring. That's not to say there is nothing to see here and all should be ignored. Just don't get excited by a .400 batting average, 5 homers or an extra walk here or there.

What I do get excited about during this window is what players are doing different. Velocity changes, new pitches, stealing more or as we saw with Will Middlebrooks we see a much better approach at the plate. Here is my disclaimer and why I think we have a little while to go before proclaiming him changed: According to statistical analysis there is a certain limit when certain numbers in baseball become reliable for a new talent level. Here is a link to an article explaining and defining from Fangraphs.

Looking down you can see that Contact rate takes approximately 100 PA to become reliable. Here is the warning: Middlebrooks has only had 54 PA this spring. So it's going to take another 3 weeks to a month to get Middlebrooks to a significant level if we continue to count his spring numbers. Anyway let me digress and explain what he's been doing differently and why I'm higher on him than I have been previously.

In 54 PA this spring Middlebrooks has not just improved on his contact level he has crushed it. He has only struck out three times giving him a K% of 5 percent. That is an elite level that no hitter reached in all qualified hitters last season. Even if he hit at his career rate of 25 percent for the next 50 PA his total K% would only be 16 percent.

What can we say about what Middlebrooks has done so far. Not only is it better than his career strikeout rate, but it's much better than his Triple-A strikeout rate of 20 percent. He's seeing the pitches and making good solid contact with 4 homers to go with 7 total extra base hits. If the sample is not large enough is their any reason we can believe Middlebrooks won't suddenly be the 25 percent strikeout guy come Monday afternoon?

There are always things said during spring training claiming why this is the big season. Players claiming they lost 20 pounds of weight, gained 5-10 pounds of muscle, ran so many miles to get faster or started a new throwing program to stay healthy (I'm looking at you Clay Buchholz). Most of it is meaningless at least historically as most players don't seem to make big swings in production based on these what seem to amount to PR moves.

That being said much like Ricky Vaughn adding glasses it sounds like Middlebrooks just needed to see the ball better literally. This offseason Middlebrooks was fitted for new contacts and said himself that previously he was tracking the trajectory of the ball, but now can see the rotation and place a better swing on the pitch. So we have a reason for change and a small sampling of the results. On the same hand there is no reason to believe he is now the best contact hitter in baseball.

If I was to extrapolate the numbers I would say he's going to be better hitting this season but that might only mean a strikeout rate of 20 percent. Anything better than that would be expecting him to be a completely different player and is to much. The best projected K% for Middlebrooks this year was by Steamer who projected a 22 percent rate. That full projection looks like this:

At a 2 WAR his projection is right at average without a change like better eyesight accounted even though we did go for the projection with the best walk rate. If his power can return to where it was in 2012 and his strikeouts stay lower than his record shows than this could be the breakout year for Middlebrooks. Going out on a limb I would expect 20-25 homers from him with a .270/.315/.460 slash line and solid but average defense.

Compared to last season that would be a big step up. Although the Red Sox third bas position had 22 homers and a similar average and OBP the SLG was a paltry .392 and the fielding was a terrible -15.7 from everyone combined. The final output was a 0.0 WAR making third base a replacement level spot on the 2013 team. Healthy and now with improved vision it seems time for Middlebrooks to shine in the Red Sox lineup.

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

The Great Cabrera Contract of 2014

2014-03-27T21:12:00.003-04:00

How much do you value a great talent like Miguel Cabrera. Do you pay for past performance? Do you pay for name recognition and fan interest? The logical answer is no, but obviously the Tigers don't need to use any logic.

In a move that not only annoyed front office members for it's length and astounding size. It also spurred up plenty of response on twitter. The contract as understood at the time of writing would not change the two remaining years and $44M owed to Cabrera. It would then start at 8 years and $248M giving him $31M per year on average.

That alone is staggering and pays a player at 40 years old $31M for that season. The crazy doesn't end there though. The deal has two vesting options each for $30M and this is my assumption, but they are probably based on games played in previous seasons. The Tigers are looking at $352M locked to one player who at 31 is already entering his decline years.

Thanks to Fangraphs we can see what OLIVER says Cabrera will age quickly in the next 5 seasons. Here is what his 2014-2018 seasons look like:

I wouldn't mind having that on my team and the Tigers are getting a steal in 2014 and 2015. He's projected to total 12.5 WAR in that time at a value of $75M while getting paid $44. I would like to repeat what I said earlier though. Don't pay future contract dollars for past performance.

Looking ahead at current free agency dollars the contract will be worth at least the $31M/season he is getting for the first two seasons (2016-2017). Then it becomes iffy with his 2018 projected to be worth $27.6M on the high end. Only three years into an 8 year contract and you're already falling behind. It's always possible Cabrera ages better than most, but as a player who has struggled with weight and had off the field issues including a DUI it's safe to stick to the projected decline.

If we continue the trend he'll lose about 0.5 WAR a season making the 8 year deal projected to total 31.2 WAR using that quick math. If that is the case and you go to the high end of the current market at $6M per WAR then Cabrera should be looking at a deal of $187M for the contract. The Tigers are putting a lot of risk in him staying healthy for ten years and even if he's healthy he's being overpaid by nearly $60M.

The worst part of paying him this much was there was no reason to rush. The Tigers still had two years of contract left and could have at least waited until next offseason to start talking. If they put this much at risk you would have thought they would have at least got some "discount" from Cabrera.

How the Tigers are willing to do this and not sign a more qualified short stop to replace the injured Jose Iglesias as well as extend Max Scherzer is a big question. I can't see the logic in doing a deal like this even if it works out and Cabrera is a 5-6 WAR player for the next 12 years, which of course is a near impossibility.

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Building a Jon Lester Contract

2014-03-26T23:31:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox are in talks with Jon Lester and his agent to try and get an extension done by opening day, which Lester has set as a deadline. If not done they plan to shelf talks until October. The talks were made public when Lester himself claimed this spring he would take a "home town discount". It's beginning to become clear that Lester might not have the same definition of discount that the rest of us do.

In discussing other deals this spring Lester has mentioned Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander as players who took a "home town discount". I don't know about you, but 7 years and $180M for Verlander and 7 years and $215M for Kershaw don't strike anyone as discounts. Signing at the top of the market with values of $20M per season and $30M per season are not discounts even if it's the home team.

The next comparable appeared to be Max Scherzer who turned down a 6 year deal from the Tigers for $144M. That for a pitcher at the same age as Lester, but coming off a Cy Young year with better numbers for two straight seasons. Even in the playoffs the Tigers were not eliminated because of Scherzer.

So while I think Scherzer is worth that contract and is projected by OLIVER to total 26.3 WAR over the next 6 seasons Lester is only projected for 19.1 WAR. (the sixth season is estimated by me). Verlander is at 32.3 WAR and Kershaw is projected for 36.3 WAR over the next 6 seasons. Clearly Lester is aiming high, but he is clearly not ready to be paid like this group.

The Red Sox clearly want to see Lester in Boston for a few more years, but don't want to just hand out money. If the Red Sox would go to five years on a deal with Lester he would be 34 when it ended depending on if you replaced the 2014 current deal or not. Given 5 seasons of OLIVER projections he would total 16.1 WAR. Based on current values a WAR is worth at least $5.5M. This makes a rough estimate of $88.5M for five season. If you go high to $6M the deal stands at $96M and would somewhat account for price inflation.

Rounding that off the Red Sox probably want to see Lester at 5 years and $100M or maybe 6 years and $118M. They could even role in a few team options to bring the "total" value closer to Scherzer in the long run, but those would have to be team options with no vesting numbers. These would be solid value deals and not really any type of discount.

If the team cannot reach an agreement with Lester than it's possible the team looks very different in 2015. Depending on what happens with John Lackey's option for 2015 it's possible only Buchholz and Felix Doubront are still around on the roster. That seems like something the Red Sox would like to avoid. I still expect them to reach some agreement even if it happens to be in April or perhaps May. The question is does Lester actually believe in the idea of a discount or was that talk more about PR?

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Fransisco Cordero a Viable Option

2014-03-25T22:33:00.002-04:00

The Red Sox bullpen is something many viewed for years as a short coming and even when the team did things "right" there was injuries and struggles to take that away. This season though the team has stocked the bullpen and may have to send viable options packing. The current projected bullpen with Craig Breslow likely headed for the DL includes Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Andrew Miller, Brandon Workman, Edward Mujica, Burke Badenhop and Chris Capuano.

That group for the most part has not done much in spring to shuffle that list. Sure Miller has had continuing control issues and has a BB/9 over 13, but as the main lefty able to strikeout hitters at will he's unlikely to drop from the roster without injury.

The team also has two pitchers who are primarily starters in here in Workman and Capuano. A lefty and a righty with reversed results so far. Capuano has not been very dominant in strikeouts to walks, but has a 2.45 ERA and seems solid in the pen. Workman has dominated hitters for the most part with 15 strikeouts in 14.2 IP, but has an ERA over 5. Workman still has options, but the Red Sox don't seem in any way to view Workman not with the team to start 2014.

Ignoring the back of the bullpen in Uehara, Mujica and Tazawa we are left with Badenhop as the last reliever to question. To help the argument Badenhop has done little this spring to cement his spot. He has never been a strikeout guy and relies on ground balls as his strength. With only three strikeouts and three walks this spring in seven innings pitched he's lacked much control. In his last two seasons he's been so good by not walking many hitters, but not so this spring.

Badenhop seems to be the only one leaving the door open right now and while slim, the opportunity has looked to be grabbed by Francisco Cordero. With 11 innings of work Cordero has struck out 8 batters and walked only one. He's had 11 ground outs to only 3 fly outs and needed only 5.88 pitcher per inning of work.

Now while Cordero has looked good there is some reason to be skeptical. He missed all of 2013 with surgery, but while it was to his non-throwing shoulder it doesn't explain why his K/9 has dropped considerably from 2007, his walks are way up since 2007 and his velocity was down as of his last few seasons. Has rest given him some life and velocity back?

If his velocity can return to near 95 mph as it was in his best years then the year of rest may have been just what Cordero needed. The question of course is will he do this outside of spring. With three spring saves we know he's been used in situations involving plenty of younger hitters not currently major league ready at the end of the game. That's sure to inflate his numbers and make him look better.

There just isn't enough time in spring training to truly measure what a pitcher is capable of. It would be a shame to let Cordero walk at the end of spring only to be added by another team and have a successful season. On that same note if Cordero is only as good as his last few seasons before the 2013 surgery, then the team could see similar results from Badenhop or Drake Britton.

photo credit: james_in_to via photopin cc

Breaking down the #1 Bogaerts Comp

2014-03-18T22:19:00.003-04:00

According to ZiPs this year not only is Xander Bogaerts projected to post nearly 3 wins above replacement, but they list Troy Tulowitzki as his number one comparison. That is high praise, but something he's quickly getting used to. The comparison is a bit difficult as Bogaerts has had much more time to mature playing for a team that didn't need to rush him through the minors. Tulowitzki only had one season at Double-A before his call up to the majors.

On the other hand Bogaerts never played a full season at Double-A splitting two partial seasons between 2012 and 2013. Combined he played 79 games at the level, which we will try to compare to Tulowitzki's 104 games at the same level. Let's start with plate discipline for the two:

Tulowitzki:

BB%: 9.5%
K%: 14.6%

Bogaerts:

BB%: 10%
K%: 20%

That higher rate of strikeouts is evident for Bogaerts, but he's made up for that by getting on base with a higher than normal BABIP. Not something I would suggest is always going to save him and it's fallen to normal levels at Triple-A and during his time in the majors last season. Hitting for a higher BABIP usually requires speed and power. Bogaerts has the power and could do the same, but it's going to be a bit tougher for Bogaerts to hit for a similar average and OBP.

Tulowitski: .291/.370/.473

Bogaerts: .326/.351/.598 and .311/.407/.502

With almost a dozen other teams Bogaerts would have made the jump to the majors after that run of numbers at Double-A much like Tulowitzki did with the Rockies. Both had power and a threat to steal double digit bases. Had hit near or above .300 with enough walks to be a solid on base player. There isn't much to discourage the comparison other than the extra strikeouts for Bogaerts.

How much power Bogaerts will develop is still a question, but scouts see him in the same range as Tulowitzki at 30 homers per season. There is also the question of his ability to play short stop for the long term as his body develops and fills out. With Bogaerts currently 6' 3" and 185 pounds he's still looking at 30 pounds to gain before he even reaches Tulowitzki's weight.

The comparison to Tulowitzki seems a very good one and perhaps his first contract in 2008 should be something the Red Sox are thinking about for Bogaerts. In 2008 after his first full season Tulowitzki signed a six year deal for $31M with a 2014 option. The team got one year of free agency out of the deal and would carry the values for those years into his next deal.

It's been a long time since the Red Sox had a sure thing at short stop and the youth on the left side of the infield could play to their advantage financially and in their growth on the field. If Bogaerts can continue to draw comparisons to someone like Tulowitzki the hype will be warranted.

Victorino Batting from the Right

2014-03-17T22:10:00.001-04:00

There has been a lot made of the switch from switch hitter to full time righty by Shane Victorino last season, but let's not forget the sample size was extremely small. Will Victorino turn into an elite .300/.370/.500 hitter like he was when batting righty last year or will the at bats against right handed pitching start to show it might not be all it's cracked up to be.

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Victorino has only 126 career at bats against right handers from the right side and of those 100 came last season. He has a .286/.362/.500 slash line which is favorable along with a .303/.373/.506 line against lefties. His wRC+ is 138 against righties and 134 against lefties batting right handed. On the other hand it's 93 batting left handed. Not bad considering 100 would be league average.

So far everything seems great and everyone should get behind Victorino batting righty full time in the leadoff spot this season. The only problem is the numbers do have some issues. Here are Victorino's numbers for BB% in each spot:

vs R ar L: 7.5%
vs L as R: 7.9%
vs R as R: 2.1%

Victorino has not shown nearly half the ability to draw walks from this side when facing a right hander. That could come with experience, but until he can prove his ability to draw walks you have to question the ability to maintain an OBP over .350. The drop is not only in walks though as Victorino has struggled to make contact:

vs R ar L: 11.7%
vs L as R: 11.5%
vs R as R: 19.7%

Walks are less than half and striking out nearly twice as often. That is a recipe for disaster, so what is Victorino doing or should I say what is luck doing? It looks like it might actually be some skill, but whether it's repeatable is a big question. His BABIP is at .319 going righty on righty, which is a very normal value. He's really hitting the ball well with an ISO of .214 and a 22% line drive rate. Both better than even batting against lefty pitchers.

His HR/FB is also elevated to a staggering 22%, but that is surely a factor of small sample size and that one is much to high compared to his other numbers to believe. OK so Victorino is killing the ball, but striking out a lot and walking almost none. What is he doing to be nearly the same hitter as when facing lefties?

So far the answer is getting plunked. In 142 career plate appearances batting righty on righty Victorino has 12 HBP or an 8 percent rate. Think about that for just a second. His combined walk and HBP rate is 10.5 percent. When he was batting as a lefty against righties his HBP plus walk rate was 8 percent. Suddenly he's as good if not better in walks from this side.

For comparison when going righty on lefty Victorino has a 10 percent rate of walks and HBP. To combine this all then we get a better walk rate if you account for HBP and more power batting from the right, but a few extra strikeouts as a result. The question now is can he continue to draw as many HBP and if he can't will he be able to convert some of those plate appearances into walks instead.

Analyzing the Grady Sizemore Projections

2014-03-15T21:34:00.003-04:00

If you are going to try and make a judgment on whether to start Grady Sizemore this year over Jackie Bradley Jr you could do so by pure performance this spring, projections or just go with some "intangible" reason. It's only March 15th, but Sizemore has been the clear winner so far this spring and "intangibles" are for the most part either useless or overrated.

photo credit: Mark Sobba via photopin cc

That makes projections a solid indication in conjunction with spring to make a decision. Obviously health weighs heavily on the projections for Sizemore and most projections limit him to less than 80 games played this year. A solid assumption after missing two full seasons for his injuries, but when you control two players you want to know who will be the best player on the field .

This seems to be a case for OLIVER projections which automatically assume 600 PA for all players. In this case you get the following numbers:

Sizemore: 17/74/71/11/.250/.335
Bradley: 14/72/67/10/.254/329

That is a six of one or half a dozen of another if I have ever seem one. Even the extra 3 homers to Sizemore is largely a wash here. Even combined with a solid spring I wouldn't have enough here to go with Sizemore just yet.

The key here is what projections fail to account for. A majority of projection systems use linear regressions of weighted averages. What that means is they regress to the mean, but use a system that weights last year more than two years ago and two years ago more than three years. After that many systems ignore anything past three years. According to projections Sizemore is a one year player in 2011 with only 71 games played.

*This is a very simplified view of some projection systems.

Not only that, but health also caused Sizemore to struggle at the plate with his lowest walk rate ever at 6.1 percent and the highest strikeout rate at 28.8 percent. He might not have the same power and speed is surely going to be a lost skill. On the other hand Sizemore should see his walk rate much closer to the 10 percent career rate and strike out rate closer to 20 percent.

If Sizemore can do that his slash line should be more around the .270/.350 rate. To be fair JBJ has shown walk rates and strike out rates similar to Sizemore in the minors.

The final decision in the end might come down to Spring performance, mainly health and the ability to option someone like JBJ to the minors to get full times at bats. While I am generally a fan of going with youth in most cases the Red Sox have done fairly well in these situations with low risk, but high reward contracts. Not only is Sizemore looking to play his way from $750K to $5.25M, but he is playing for the chance to make a big multi year deal next season.

Will he be the next Adrain Beltre, Mike Napoli, to a lesser extent Stephen Drew or will he be a John Smoltz or Brad Penny result? As long as Sizemore and Victorino are healthy I would let JBJ get at bats in Triple-A. Using Victorino to rest Sizemore when needed in CF. Bradley will get his chance, but it just shouldn't be to start April this season.

Evaluating the A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia Deals

2013-12-03T22:32:00.002-05:00

In one day the market has fully heated and moves are happening at a fast pace. It was revealed earlier today that the Boston Red Sox had made a choice to continue with short term options by signing a stop gap option at catcher in A.J. Pierzynski. His deal was a reported one year and $8.25M and at the current market that is a solid deal for both the team and the player. On the other hand the terrible Florida Marlins felt the need to go all in and gave Jarrod Saltalamacchia a three year deal for $21M.

The Red Sox must have had an idea that Salty got the three years he was looking for and jumped quickly at a deal that can do nothing to hurt the team long term. The team has a solid backup in David Ross as I discussed already and a minor league system with plenty of talent expected to be ready soon.

The biggest concern with Pierzynski is his reputation with players and potential effect in the clubhouse. Last year the team made sure to sign guys ready to be a positive influence in the clubhouse and build something the 2012 team just didn't have. They road that choice all the way to a World Series win. This signing is a new direction, but perhaps based on the large return of winning players with good influence he will be a better teammate.

In regards to his play he's not really a Red Sox type of hitter with very little plate discipline and strikes out a fair amount, but nowhere near the level of Salty. He has good pop, but even with that said his career wRC+ is 94 and hasn't been higher than 93 since 2003. His bat is aged and probably a league average at the catcher spot. That's not a terrible thing, but you're relying on him to catch a good game then and play good defense.

According to Fangraphs defense his play behind the plate has been poor, but compared to his peers enough to earn more than half a win most seasons. When you consider what he is it's clear his best years are behind him and you're trying to squeeze a solid 1.5 to 2 WAR out of him in potentially limited at bats with a platoon split.

In an isolated look at Salty you are probably losing out with Pierzynski in 2014. While Salty strikes out a ton he has better patience and walks twice as often as A.J. His power is a step ahead of him as well as he has an ISO of more than .190 for three years in Boston. A.J. has only had an ISO over .170 one time in his entire career.

Defensively Salty grades well on the scale fangraphs uses for catchers and looks to be a better 2014 option in regards to overall projection, but the Red Sox had multiple reasons to make this decision. Salty is a very "streaky" hitter due to his 30 percent strikeout rate and can go through long stretches of down times at the plate. Just look at his playoffs last season when he struck out 54 percent of the time and was benched for Ross in the World Series.

I felt the team would have gladly paid Salty for a short term deal and I'm surprised they didn't offer him the one year qualifying offer as his projections would defend him at $14M for 2014. The are definetly not better in the next year by doing this, but with Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquezand Jon Denney all in the system they felt paying for 2015 and 2016 weren't worth it. The loss of Salty working out rides heavily on the prospects progressing in 2014 and a setback there could force the team into a poor deal when Ross also becomes a free agent.

All Quiet on the Red Sox Front

2013-11-25T22:52:00.000-05:00

There doesn't appear to be much going on for the Red Sox so far this offseason and while they are surely calling on players and making offers they seem to be playing patient so far. As players start to sign the market should speed up. Brian McCann has surely set the catcher market and perhaps led to a decision by Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Jhonny Peralta signing might also start some movement as well.

Filling the catcher and first base spots are surely the number one needs and while an outfielder would be nice they could make due with what they have. If Salty signs somewhere now that McCann has moved and it's not Boston expect a bit of panic to set in here in Boston. If Mike Napoli dose this first then the panic may step up a few notches.

That's not to say the team needs to be going overboard because who thought what they did last season was enough to even get them to the playoffs? The team will be patient, but now that the free agent market is shaping some sort of "value" expect more pieces to fall soon.

Will the Red Sox be to cautious this offseason though to avoid returning to overpaying veterans? Would the team scoff at a deal in the 3 years and $40+M for Napoli over fears of decline/strikeouts/health?

I can defend the pass on Saltalamacchia, but that is because the difference in my opinion is much less from Salty and David Ross to Ross and any number of free agent or trade options. The offense Salty supplies is just not enough to say his value is far enough ahead and could as my article the other day said be less valuable to a Ross platoon with George Kottaras.

On the other hand the ability to fill first base is a much bigger ask. I don't like a three year deal for someone like Napoli and it has all the makings of what happened with Mike Lowell, but there isn't much else available. I don't have any idea if Will Middlebrooks could handle the spot defensively and Corey Hart is a nice option, but his health even for one year would be a big question.

The rest of the available first base options available right now read a full list of potential average or below average skill. The Red Sox have already employed a large portion of them from James Loney to Kevin Youkilis or Casey Kotchman. So they already know first hand what to expect.

In my own opinion even with his potential hip issue, his rise in strikeouts in 2013 and the potential to regret a third year the Red Sox will be forced to pay Mike Napoli this offseason. I expect this is their number one priority and why they have been largely quite other than Carlos Beltran rumblings. Once this situation ends with Napoli signed with whatever team he joins then expect the rest of the Red Sox holes to be filled quickly.

George Kottaras an Interesting Option

2013-11-21T22:18:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox have not been making a lot of noise on the catcher front and while Jarrod Saltalamacchia has not signed anywhere yet he's surely testing the waters. The team will being playing David Ross in a split with whatever catcher they sign and that means the team would probably prefer a left handed bat to pair with Ross from the right side demanding less playing time.

Now this name is not flashy and I'm sure there would be plenty of hand wringing in the Boston media if the 2014 Boston Red Sox started with Ross and George Kottaras behind the plate on Opening Day, but I think this is a pretty defensible move.

The first point is he's a lefty bat while many of the catchers on the market this offseason hit from the right side. The team would like to play Ross a bit more as his work with the staff in the playoffs was proof alone how good he is. Signing a bigger name makes it harder to get him in on a consistent basis. On the other hand someone like Kottaras almost assures a solid split of playing time.

For those who remember Kottaras on his first run through Boston you might remember him touted for his plate discipline. In his 2008 season at Triple-A he walked 14 percent of the time and kept his strikeouts at a reasonable rate of 23 percent of at bats. He's no slouch for power with 22 homers that season and a .465 SLG. Now that was five years ago and at Triple-A and since then he's not really shown that ability or truly been given the chance.

To be fair to the teams playing him he hasn't stolen the job either. His batting average has been terrible and that is in large part to his strike outs, but also his BABIP has averaged .246 over 820 PA. That is in part to a low line drive rate of 17 percent and plenty of ground balls by a catcher. The good news is even with the poor average he gets on base with an OBP of .324 in his career and that has gotten better in 2012 and 2013 even with dreadful BABIP those seasons of .237 and .245.

Looking at early projections we get a look from Steamer projections at only 24 games played with a fairly mediocre .219/.333/.379 for a stat line. A quick look at Ross according to Steamer says we would get a lot of the same with .231/.305/.383.

So would you really want that for 2014? No, but they would likely platoon in a lefty/righty split and that's where it looks a bit better. In his career Kottaras has hit .220/.319/.430 against ~~lefties~~ righties for a .326 wOBA or right around league average at the catcher position or think Salvador Perez for only 200 or so PA. His average and OBP aren't better, but he is slugging much better against lefties.

On the other hand Ross is hitting .246/.325/.442 against ~~right~~ left handers and a wOBA of .332. He did even better this past season with a .350 wOBA against lefties. This would make Ross the number one catcher, but not overload his number of games played. The team would get an average to above average offensive catcher combined and defensively Ross has graded very well on Fangraphs defense for catchers and Kottaras has been solid.

Unlike signing a front line catcher the team gets a cheap short term option and the ability to even give an opportunity to Ryan Lavarnway if he proves himself in camp or at Pawtucket. This would only be an option if Salty signs elsewhere and to avoid signing someone like A.J. Pierzynski.

The Catch-22 of Mike Napoli

2013-11-20T22:55:00.001-05:00

Everything says the Red Sox are playing to resign Mike Napoli this offseason and obviously his play will be for the long term deal the team took away from him last season. He showed his ability to stay healthy and his interest to stay in Boston was evident in his quotes this offseason.

Everything seems straight forward in that case and after a 3.9 fWAR season and proving his defense at first is very good the two sides should iron this out and be done ASAP. Once you like at the free agent market that should make you raise the price even more.

The list of first base free agents is bad at best and gets scary at worst. Here is the list of free agents at MLB Trade Rumors and you can see there is a ton of over the hill backups and huge injury risks. The team isn't likely to bring back anyone especially not Kevin Youkilis even if Bobby V moved on. Mark Reynolds looks to have fallen off the cliff at only 30 years old and Justin Morneau just isn't the same player.

I can't see one name outside of Corey Hart who might be worth an offer and that is only because he's a sure one year deal and if he can stay on the field will produce well enough for the team that signs him. The Red Sox have made a very large part of their talent search to add injury risks on one year deals including Napoli himself.

If the Red Sox miss out on Napoli and Hart though the free agent prospects are obviously thin and might require the cost of some of the pitching I discussed on Tuesday. From Felix Doubront to John Lackey or Jake Peavy the team has an arm or two to move. They could even move Ryan Dempster and eat some salary to make something get done. Who they might get is a big question. Would Mark Trumbo be worth adding? Perhaps, but do you really want a younger Napoli who takes less walks?

Well to avoid getting to that situation the team should just suck it up and give Napoli the deal even if it means going four years right? Nope. Napoli was frustrating this season, but we all agree the power and ability to take so many pitches should make him a valuable asset. Yes while at the same time realizing Napoli has several red flags in his 2013 season.

The strikeout rate is off the charts in 2013 and miles away from his career best 19 percent acheived in 2011 when he had a SLG of .631 and 30 homers in Texas. A fluke year for sure, but part of the potential he showed and why the Red Sox really wanted him so much.

The elephant in the room for Napoli is his BABIP in 2013 at .367 a career high and more than 50 points over his career average. You might assume that perhaps Fenway helped in adding extra hits, but his BABIP was mostly on the road at .397. When this number declines over the course of his next contract and if his strikeouts maintain at 30 percent then Napoli is going to be a solid and perhaps above average player, but at more than $13M per season it's borderline if he'll make it worth the money especially for three years or more.

Internally the Red Sox could look at Mike Carp in a platoon with a right handed bat at first or even weight the option of trying Ryan Lavarnway there, but those don't seem very likely given the team may enter 2014 with two largely untested players in Xander Bogaerts at short stop and Jackie Bradley Jr in center field. Top it off with a question at third base in Will Middlebrooks and you want more of a sure thing at first base.

While the team may end up looking back at a three year deal for Napoli in much the same way they viewed the Mike Lowell deal after the 2007 World Series there isn't a lot of other great options. The team can also eat a contract like that while many other teams cannot. At the same time if Napoli finds a team willing to go to four years then it's time to take these other choices more seriously and move on.

Carlos Beltran trying to squeeze into the new Red Sox model

2013-11-19T21:46:00.002-05:00

It's safe to say the Red Sox are not in the running to keep Jacoby Ellsbury and they probably won't go the lengths to add maybe the next best outfielder in Shin Soo Choo who would be an even better lead off hitter than Ellsbury. There are also plenty of injury options in Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay or Nate McLouth. While Carlos Beltran has had his fair share of injuries he's also been largely healthy for three straight seasons totaling more than 140 GP in each of those seasons.

The Red Sox have obviously made a choice to use short term contracts and pass on big money deals like Ellsbury or Choo. While the Red Sox would look amazing with Choo leading off and his career .385 OBP, but with Scot Boras as an agent and making demands for a Jayson Werth type deal he is probably not in the cards.

On the other hand Beltran is a 37 year old outfielder who displayed his defensive skill when making the catch during the World Series to rob David Ortiz of a home run. He's definitely lost some speed with his injuries, but moving to left field in Fenway could hide some of that defensive loss of range. He's not going to be even an average fielder using metrics like UZR, but he should be better than he was in right field in 2013.

Bringing in Beltran is all about his bat at this point and making your team largely based on two aging sluggers. It's a risky bet, but with a wRC+ in his last three seasons of 152, 126 and 132. He's no longer the threat for 40 homers, but given a full season switch hitting in Fenway he should threaten 30 homers again.

I really like Beltran, but there isn't much to love after the power number anymore. He totalled 13 steals in 2012, but only four in 2011 and two in 2013. The speed is no longer there and he's scored a -1.3 base running score in the past three seasons. An average base runner with no speed and a career .359 OBP is good, but again he's average.

Looking at his Steamer 2014 projection you'll see what would be a concern for Beltran. His projected stat line of .277/.344/.473 is another solid season, but with only 20 homers projected and a projected uptick in his strike outs Beltran is projected to total a 1.8 fWAR in 2014. That is worth no more than $12 million and surely would projected to decline again in 2015.

The Red Sox are looking at a one skill player who could end up being a liability in the outfield. They can't hide him at DH until at least 2015 and even then why assume David Ortiz will be gone? He's looking for two to three years and rumors suggest in the $15M per year. Assuming an even decline based on his 2013 season there is no way he makes that a good deal and requires him to beat any type of aging curve.

It's fair to say that was what everyone said when the Red Sox kept signing Ortiz in the last few years and we were all wrong, but how many times should you bet against average decline before getting burned badly. A deal like this would not be team friendly, not a one year gamble and would rank on yearly value among the highest on the team. Beltran is the perfect player for a short term one year deal, but interest may be to high and should draw a two or three year contract. That is not deal that would fit under this new approach of the Red Sox and the team should look elsewhere.

The 2014 Red Sox Rotation and Beyond

2013-11-18T22:34:00.001-05:00

Edit: All projections are Steamer projections found on Fangraphs.com The Boston Red Sox have a excess of pitching both at the Major league level and prospects all cracking the Top 100 lists making the future rotation a tough choice, but a good position for the team. Here are the current pitchers with contracts making them a must start if still with the 2014 Red Sox.

Jon Lester

The unquestioned ace on the team right now with durability and solid stuff. He's not the pitcher he was in 2008 and 2009, but he's going to be here and unless the team adds a Felix Hernandez type he's going to be the #1 starter. He's also due for a contract after having his $13M option picked up for 2014.

2014 Projection - 12-9, 3.75 ERA, 140 K, 67 BB

Clay Buchholz

You could argue John Lackey is the new number two, but when healthy Buchholz is an amazing pitcher and could be the true dominant ace this team wants, but he's yet to reach 200 IP in a season and the neck issue is not going away. He showed he could pitch with pain in the playoffs, but the velocity drop showed he probably shouldn't. If the right deal came along Buchholz might be one of the top on my list to move.

2014 Projection - 10-8, 4.08 ERA, 115 K, 51 BB

John Lackey

The amazing things Tommy John can do to save a pitcher even without a major jump in velocity Lackey has been able to have a very good season in 2013. His xFIP was the best in his career and only a poor amount of run support resulted in the 10 and 13 record. A regression in strikeouts and walks though in 2014 might bring him back a bit, but not enough to make him a bad choice to keep in Boston once more.

2014 Projection - 12-9, 3.77 ERA, 136 K, 46 BB

Felix Doubront

I've never been a huge Doubront guy, but lefties can always get work in the majors and he's an acceptable #4 or 5 on almost any team. He's also going to continue to be a cheap contract for now, but expecting anything less than an ERA between 4 and 4.50 is looking for to much. His strikeouts dropped a lot last season and he continues to walk a ton. In the end he should probably be the #5 or long relief for this team. At the same time Steamer projections below show him to equal Buchholz in 2014 for what it's worth.

2014 Projection - 10-8, 4.08 ERA, 124 K, 60 BB

Jake Peavy

If the Red Sox think Peavy is only going to be as good as he was during his stint in Boston last season then there needs to be discussion about moving him this offseason. At the same time he has been a better pitcher while in the AL with Chicago and pitching in a hitter friendly park. The biggest question is why couldn't he strike anyone out after getting nearly a batter per inning during his 2013 in his White Sox. Looking ahead to his projections he' on par with Lackey, but for obvious reasons I feel better keeping Lackey.

2014 Projection - 12-9, 3.79 ERA, 141K, 44 BB

Brandon Workman

Workman did not take to relief work during the season and struggled with an ERA of 6.94 in the role. He showed everyone wrong in the playoffs by tossing 8.2 scoreless innings. That might have looked nice, but it was quite lucky as he continued to walk a lot of hitters, but also only had 4 K in the playoffs. I think Workman is going back to starting and that should probably be where he belongs. He's not one of the Red Sox best prospects, but a solid arm who could continue to also fill the starter/long relief role until he shows more.

2014 Projection - 6-4, 3.82 ERA, 71 K, 28 BB

Prospects

The 2013 season was a much better feeling for the Red Sox organization not only for what the major league team, but for how the minor league system produced. In 2012 several prospects took steps back and the team was concerned about the minor league system and how far off everyone was. This season the team had several prospects take huge steps and even with Allen Webster failing in his first shot at the majors he still impressed at Triple A.

After the season the team currently stands with Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo and Allen Webster all reaching high levels on many of the end of season prospect rankings. Both Barnes and Ranaudo finished the season in Pawtucket and Webster had several shots in Boston. The biggest climber has been left hander Henry Owens. He's certainly getting a lot of attention, but he'll be brought along slowly as he suffers from fatigue resulting in velocity loss and still walks far to many hitters.

The team will not be hesitant to use any of Webster, Ranaudo or Barnes next season if needed. Owens while probably the top now in terms of scouting will probably head back to Double A to get more seasoning and work on stamina and control. He's probably going to threaten the rotation later in the year or for sure in 2015.

2014 Projections
Webster - 3-3, 4.52 ERA, 39 K, 24 BB
All others are not projected for more than 1.0 IP

Conclusions

The Red Sox have a plethora of pitchers both veterans and prospects and those in between. They don't really have to feel forced to move any though as the middle of the rotation has been injury plagued and they will need options like Webster and Workman to pitch many important innings this upcoming season. Sure it sounds good to think you could move this crop for someone like Giancarlo Stanton, but that's highly unlikely and also potentially not worth the cost.

Long Shot Options for the Red Sox

2013-11-14T22:04:00.001-05:00

I spent last night doing some spitballing for the rest of the hot stove season for the Red Sox and two names came to the front as potential short term contracts that could fit the mold of what they've been trying to do. I'll be frank and state that I would be SHOCKED if either one happened, but they would make smart business for the Red Sox.

A.J. Burnett

The Red Sox will need to work very hard and perhaps go the extra mile for the right handed pitcher, but Burnett is far from washed up and the biggest hurdle id the potential to just retire. He's claimed it's the Pirates or quitting and he would prefer a one year deal according to reports, but it couldn't hurt to call with a substantial offer for one year.

Stuff has never been a problem for Burnett, but health has. he's reached 190 innings though for three straight years and been a top pitcher since joining the Pirates. He strikeout nearly a batter an inning and with one of the best ground ball rates in all of baseball he keeps the ball in the yard.

Burnett would be a better option in the Red Sox rotation than Ryan Dempster if the team could find someone to take him off their hands. Burnett and Dempster don't have very different K/BB numbers in their career with Burnett being a bit better overall at 2.28 to 1.94. Th ebig difference is ground ball rates. Dempster has a 45 percent career rate, which dropped to 40 percent this season. Burnett is a career 50 percent and has gotten better in Pittsburgh at 56 percent.

Burnett made $16 million last season and earned every penny with a 4.0 fWAR in 30 games started. His Steamer projection says he'll win 13 games next year with a 3.48 ERA and 3.8 fWAR. Expect the wins and ERA to be higher if he joined the Red Sox. The fWAR would stay mostly static in a tougher league and he could be worth more than $20M next season. The Pirates will probably be hoping Burnett comes back for something in the $10 to $12M range, but perhaps matching his 2013 salary for 1 year and $16.5M is enough to bring him to Boston.

Grady Sizemore

Remember back in 2008 when Sizemore was going to set all kind of contract records when he got to free agency. He had just posted his fourth season with a fWAR over 5.7 and his first 30/30 season. He was going to be the next Barry Bonds pre-steroids, but then injuries struck and he has spent parts of four seasons trying to reestablish himself and his health.

According to reports Sizemore is going to be ready for camp this season and after missing so much time he's going to be out to prove himself on a one year deal. The Red Sox so far have looked ready to move on from Jacoby Ellsbury and to promote Jackie Bradley Jr to full time duties, but likely the team would like to find a backup or CF partner who could split time and backup JBJ if he struggles again.

Even if Sizemore is healthy and hits half of what he was on 2008 you would be happy. His defense is probably a concern and asking him to man CF might be a bit much, but that would be Bradley's role to rest Sizemore and defense in later innings. This whole scenario is a long shot, but it won't cost much and it is something the Red Sox have enjoyed doing.

To Start Middlebrooks or Not To Start Middlebrooks

2013-11-12T22:16:00.001-05:00

What is the worst way to followup a breakout 2012 in which you produce a stat line of .288/.325/.509 and a solid defense at third base in 75 games played? Exactly as Will Middlebrooks did by posting a stat line of .227/.271/.425 and playing slightly sub par defense. His 1.9 WAR in 2012 is a far cry from the 0.3 he produced this season.

To top it off the Red Sox used Xander Bogaerts primarily at third base in the playoffs with Middlebrooks only playing 10 games and hitting an even worse .160/.250/.240. It's tough to view him as a starter headed into 2014, but the Red Sox have few choices outside the team and the youth behind Middlebrooks is not quite ready yet.

The Red Sox would be wise to avoid players like Mark Reynolds and Kevin Youkilis who hit the 2014 third base class of free agents. Both are entering decline years and both have already hit replacement level in one or more of the last few seasons.

So internally you can play Bogaerts at third and bring back Stephen Drew to man short stop, but Bogaerts best value is at short and his defense looked better there this fall. So barring this outcome or a frighteningly bad choice like Placido Polanco or Michael Young the Red Sox seem ready to give Middlebrooks one more try.

As a low OBP guy who can go through stretches of great games and terrible ones he can be terribly frustrating to watch, but as his first two season combined show over the long haul he should be a solid choice. In 169 games played in his major league career he has a stat line of .254/.297/.462. That is not very good and not something you expect in a Red Sox player, but with 32 homers in that span and 103 RBI he has the slugging to be an acceptable bat.

His defense has been average making him worth about 2 wins above replacement at third base in a full season. Not an all star by any means, but at pre-arbitration dollars he's not going to be a huge disappointment hitting like that for all of 2014.

His 2014 projections according to Steamer assume he won't play a full season based on his limited time and injuries. Giving him only 49 games played and a stat line of .260/.307/.460, which is a step up from what he has done so far. In that 49 games it also projects 9 homers and if you push that to 150 games you are looking at 27 or 28 home runs for Middlebrooks.

The problem that might make the Red Sox concerned and shop for other options is Middlebrooks did suffer injuries in 2013. His best numbers are before the injury and his power was declined after as his SLG dropped 84 points. If he cannot reproduce the power he displayed in 2012 than the Red Sox must quickly make a choice to add another option.

If healthy a power bat hitting 30 homers is about the best thing you're going to be able to label with Middlebrooks with in his time in Boston. He doesn't make great amounts of contact and walks very rarely. He's probably going to give you 2-3 WAR at third base in a full time role for a few season before the Red Sox can decide to give the position to someone like Garin Cecchini or Bogaerts if he grows to large for Short Stop.

The Red Sox don't need to add third base to the shopping list this offseason unless the injury is a problem, but don't expect Middlebrooks to be a long term solution either. He'll supply some right handed power and a solid if not spectacular glove, but expect a similar career to someone like Mark Reynolds who peaked very quickly with a power swing and poor contact, but declined very quickly.

Steamer's Opinion on Steven Drew Versus Xander Bogarts

2013-11-08T22:14:00.000-05:00

The first projections this season listed on Fangraphs site are the Steamer projections which have been known to be a solid projection system. Their pitching projections are extremely good and the hitting is one of the better ones as well. Let's see what the projections say with regard to Stephen Drew versus Xander Bogaerts at Short Stop.

The Red Sox have already made the first decision and decided Steven Drew is worth the risk of a one year qualifying offer of $14M. It looked like a good deal for Drew, but 2013 was the one year deal for Drew and this was the plan to hit the market and get the long term deal Scott Boras would love to get him.

Looking at Steamer it looks like Drew should aim for the two to three year deal with a lower per year deal from whatever team will offer one. His offense is projected to fall off across the board although it projects him to reach 600 PA for the first time since 2010.

His defense will still be solid, but his value at defense has been a bit exaggerated in Boston this postseason and his glove should give him maybe a win over the entire 2014. He's even a negative UZR value over the full course of his pro career.

Now to say his projection is down would ignore the fact that still his numbers would be the league average Short Stop, but what does Steamer say about Bogaerts. Compared to Drew's slash line of .242/.322/.392 you have a very similar .256/.316/.398. They have very similar walk rates and strikeout about 20% of the time. At the plate Bogaerts has a projection looking much like Drew, but at 21 years of age there is a much higher ceiling for power and even his plate discipline.

In the field there just isn't much to go on, but in the small sample of 2013 his UZR numbers show him as a much better short stop than third baseman. He also projects as a 2.5 run value according to Steamer. Here he falls short of Drew, but with limited data this one will have to come down to scouting.

The final value projections from Steamer give Drew a 2.4 WAR and Bogaerts a 1.9 WAR. Essentially a draw and at 2.4 WAR Drew would need the market to show a win being worth nearly $6M. It's possible, but with a much cheaper and younger option in Bogaerts you have to look that direction and hope Drew can also get you a first round pick in return.

A strong option the Red Sox should consider is signing Clint Barmes for a one or two year deal to back up Bogaerts. His offense has completely left him, but he has one of the best gloves at short stop. Ranking short stops by UZR/150 and including those with 800 innings played he ranks behind only Andrelton Simmons in 2013. If you include 2012 and 2011 and up the qualifying innings to 3000 he is the best glove in baseball at the position.

He's coming off a $5.5M dollar deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates and lost his starting job during the contract. You can safely assume the Pirates will be looking to sign him back as a cheap backup and the Red Sox would do well to add him as Bogaerts backup.

Junichi Tazawa Still the Best Eighth Inning Option

2013-09-22T14:00:00.000-04:00

In a year full of disappointments one of the clear bright spots last season was the move of Junichi Tazawa to a relief roll. He finished the year throwing 44 innings with an ERA of 1.43 and a K/BB of 45/5. He looked to be not only a sure choice for the 2013 bullpen, but a backup option for the closer role. While his numbers haven't been terrible his innings have not been without their problems. What has changed and can he still be the pitcher of 2012?

photo credit: Elliotphotos via photopin cc

Let's be honest when you step back and look at his numbers he's not that much different from last year. In 67 innings this season his ERA is up to 2.96, but last years xFIP of 2.59 shows he was a bit lucky. His K/BB this season of 70/12 is still very impressive although a step behind the elite level of 2012. That's not the only reason he has stepped back though.

In 2012 Tazawa was able to do something he had not done before. He added a splitter and suddenly a pitcher who was not very good at drawing grounders was getting 48 percent of them. When you take a pitcher with a K/BB of 9 and add 48 percent ground balls you are talking about some of the best in baseball. That is not an overstatement in my opinion as only four other pitchers had more than 40 innings in one season and thrown a K/BB over 9 and a 48 percent or higher ground ball rate (during time frame data is available on FanGraphs).

It's safe to say expecting anything at that level again would be asking for Tazawa to be on of the best of all time. He's always gotten strikeouts, but his walk rate was previously in the two to three range every nine innings. He also never had such a great ground ball rate. What changed in 2013 to make him struggle to own the eighth inning?

This season Tazawa has continued to fan hitters more than one per inning pitched. He also has aBB/9 rate of 1.61, which is not as good as 2012, but is still a very good number. It ranks 17th among all pitchers with more than 60 IP. That leaves the ground ball rate and that is where Tazawa has struggled.

His ground ball rate has dropped to 33 percent and really hurt Tazawa as those have largely turned into fly balls and a few extra home runs. To be honest there are a few changes in his splitter, which is clearly his best ground ball pitch, but nothing to point to and say there is his problem. The horizontal break on the splitter is actually more from -5.87 last season to -6.08 this season. He's arm release appears to have moved as his horizontal release went from -2.15 to -1.49. Since the vertical is the same it's possible he's throwing from a different place on the rubber.

None of this says what changed. He throws the pitch more against lefties, but his grounder rate has suffered against both LHH and RHH. The smallest change I can find is he has dropped the use by 10 percentage points when he's ahead in the count and whenever he has two strikes. In all those situations against LHH and RHH he has used the splitter significantly less.

It seems like the loss of grounders might be part of his regression as well as a slight change in pitch selection. Even with a ground ball rate in the 30's his xFIP is still a solid 3.07 this season. The added fly balls will cause problems with more home runs, but Tazawa is still the best pitcher according to K/BB in the bullpen behind Koji Uehara. I would hate to see the Red Sox try to pick the "hot" arm while they have a solid arm already there.

The Health and Evolution of John Lackey

2013-09-19T22:47:00.000-04:00

I've always been tough on John Lackey and it's great to see him finally throwing well and having the season the Red Sox have been expecting from him since the day they signed him. He's healthy and pitching what might be his best baseball since his prime in Anaheim. Over his time in Boston his issues have stemmed largely from a sudden high use of cutters that did not seem to be effective.

photo credit: Keith Allison via photopin cc

Now there is some difference of opinion on what the "cutter" is depending on if you use Pitch F/x or human classification system, but FanGraphs has it listed as a cutter under Pitch F/x and slider under pitch type. Either way there is a lot of interesting things going on with this pitch as it has played a big part in his revival.

Velocity

The Slurve-Cutter is classified as a cutter by fangraphs but take a look at the velocity profile of his cutter over the years.

vFC is the Slurve-Cutter

Notice that for five straight seasons his cutter has been around 89mph to 91mph, but suddenly after Tommy John surgery the velocity is down to 85.9mph. Velocity wise his fastball is right on track with his career, but why would his cutter have lost 5mph. This makes the pitch look a lot like his slider, which has been in the 84mph to 85 mph range.

To be honest this "cutter" classification looks simply like a misclassification by pitch F/x based on velocity and that it should be a Slider. According to Texasleaguers.com though the average fastball in 2010 was 91 mph and the average cutter was 88 mph. Most cutters are about 2-5 mph slower than the fastball, but previous cutters for Lackey were the same velocity as his fastball at 91 mph.

Looking at the same set of 2010 data you see sliders are around 84 mph. Obviously not each player will follow the averages and drop the same amount, but this doesn't really tell us if the pitch is a cutter or slider.

Movement

The normal cutter moves like a slider, but not as much horizontally. The pitch moves toward the glove hand side of the pitcher. In 2010 the cutter Lackey was throwing actually had a -2 horizontal movement, which means it was not moving enough to the glove side. Compared to the fastball it was less movement to the right, but still not a full cutter.

The average cutter in 2010 finished with a 0 movement horizontally, which does not mean that the pitch does not move just that it starts and finishes where a pitch with no spin would go. So the pitch moves like a cross between the fastball and slider and has more break to the glove side, while a fastball moves to the pitching hand side.

Now in 2013 the new cutter has a much different movement. The cutter moves 2.1 inches vertically and 3.9 inches horizontally. The pitch is now moving much further to the glove side and breaking almost like a slider. His slider in his career has had 1.3 inches of vertical break and 3.0 inches of horizontal break.

This again confirms that it might just be a classification problem as the averages in 2010 for sliders were much like this pitch and say it's more likely a slider than a cutter.

Findings

Why is it important that the cutter is more like a slider anyway? Well to be honest the true cutter Lackey was throwing in 2010 and 2011 was not very good. According to pitch values his cutter was worth -13.2 runs during those two years while his slider was a +6 runs in those two seasons combined. Over that same time his cutter resulted in a swing and miss 5 percent of the time and the slider was 13.5 percent.

Lackey appears to not only have tricked hitters this year, but Pitch F/x might have stumbled on his stuff as well. With Lackey now throwing almost 80 percent of his pitches as fastballs and sliders, if you classify the cutter as a slider, his stuff has been the best it's been since he left Anaheim where he threw 80% fastballs and curves. He has changed over these years, but finally healthy and throwing this new repertoire has brought him success and the respect of Red Sox fans.