ZeroHedge News

Pelosi Recovering After Hip Surgery In Europe

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 21:20:00 +0000

Pelosi Recovering After Hip Surgery In Europe

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Former House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) underwent hip replacement surgery in Europe on Dec. 14, according to her spokesperson, who said the California Democrat is well on her way to recovery.

“Earlier this morning, Speaker Emerita Pelosi underwent a successful hip replacement and is well on the mend,” Pelosi’s spokesman Ian Krager said in a statement Saturday morning.

The spokesman conveyed Pelosi’s gratitude to U.S. military staff at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center (LRMC) in Germany and to medical staff at Hospital Kirchberg in Luxembourg for their “excellent care and kindness.” LRMC is the largest American military hospital outside the United States, while Hospital Kirchberg is a civilian hospital providing a range of medical services. It’s not clear at which facility Pelosi was operated on.

“Speaker Pelosi is enjoying the overwhelming outpouring of prayers and well wishes and is ever determined to ensure access to quality health care for all Americans,” the spokesperson added.

A day prior, Krager announced that Pelosi sustained an injury while on an official engagement as part of a bipartisan congressional delegation in Luxembourg and had to be hospitalized. He did not provide any further details about the injury but noted that Pelosi was receiving “excellent treatment” and “continues to work.”

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who joined the trip, shared on social media that he was “praying for a speedy recovery” for Pelosi. A group photo taken Friday at the U.S. Embassy in Luxembourg showed the two lawmakers holding hands.

“I’m disappointed Speaker Emerita Pelosi won’t be able to join the rest of our delegation’s events this weekend as I know how much she looked forward to honoring our veterans. But she is strong, and I am confident she will be back on her feet in no time,” McCaul wrote.

McCaul is leading the congressional delegation. Participants plan to take part in commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Battle of the Bulge in both Luxembourg and Belgium, along with veterans and their families, active duty service members, government and military officials, and foreign dignitaries.

Over a career spanning seven presidential administrations, Pelosi has been a prominent figure in Washington. She first served as House speaker from 2007 to 2011 and again in 2019 after Democrats regained control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections.

In November, Pelosi secured reelection in California’s 11th Congressional District, which includes most of San Francisco. The victory marked Pelosi’s 20th term in the House of Representatives. She stepped down as House speaker in 2023 but continues to serve in the chamber.

Pelosi also played a pivotal role in passing President Joe Biden’s sweeping $1 trillion infrastructure bill in 2022.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 16:20

Dramatic Video Shows Black Sea Storm Splitting Russian Oil Tanker In Half

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 20:45:00 +0000

Dramatic Video Shows Black Sea Storm Splitting Russian Oil Tanker In Half

Two Russian oil tankers sustained severe damage in heavy seas in the Kerch Strait, a strait in Eastern Europe that connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov.

The Telegraph reports that the Volgoneft-212 tanker and Volgoneft-239 were damaged near Moscow-annexed Crimea, with one of the vessels breaking apart, killing at least one sailor, and causing an oil spill.

Volgoneft-212 was transporting 4,300 tons of fuel oil. Likely similar load on the Volgoneft-239. Both were over 130 meters long.
Last GPS location showed 212 just north of the Kerch Bridge, while 239 was just south of the bridge. pic.twitter.com/2fMZMyHENW
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) December 15, 2024

Additional reporting from the Telegraph:

Russian investigators opened two criminal cases to look into possible "safety violations" after at least one person was killed when the 136-metre Volgoneft 212 tanker, with 15 people on board, split in half with its bow sinking, footage published by state media showed, with waves washing over its deck.

The Russian-flagged vessel, built in 1969, was damaged and had run aground, officials said.

"There was a spill of petroleum products," said Russia's water transport agency, Rosmorrechflot.

A second Russian-flagged ship, the 132-metre Volgoneft 239, was drifting after sustaining damage, the emergency ministry said. It has a crew of 14 people and was built in 1973.

Both tankers have a loading capacity of about 4,200 tonnes oil products.

"Two Russian tankers carrying fuel oil — Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 — are sinking in the Kerch Strait," Belarusian media outlet NEXTA wrote on X.

This is an unverified video.

Two Russian tankers carrying fuel oil — Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 — are sinking in the Kerch Strait. pic.twitter.com/XjeUlj1i8N
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 15, 2024

On Sunday, President Vladimir Putin ordered Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev to lead a rescue mission for the sailors on board the two tankers and mitigate the fuel spill. This directive was conveyed via the Kremlin's Telegram channel.

Ukraine has previously deployed kamikaze stealth boats in the area to attack Russian military vessels. However, Kyiv has not commented on the current situation in the strait.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 15:45

"Falling Off A Cliff": This Chart Proves That We Are In A Major Economic Downturn Right Now

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 20:10:00 +0000

"Falling Off A Cliff": This Chart Proves That We Are In A Major Economic Downturn Right Now

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The number of job openings in the United States has been “falling off a cliff”, and that is a major red flag.

The last four years have been an economic nightmare for most Americans, and that is one of the primary reasons why Donald Trump won the election. But as we approach 2025, things are starting to get frighteningly bad. When the number of job openings in the U.S. drops by 2 million or more, that normally signals that we are either in a recession or that one is about to happen. Well, as you can see from this chart that was posted by Bravos Research on Twitter, we are witnessing a collapse in job openings that is absolutely unprecedented…

I was floored when I saw that chart.

I knew that job openings were falling, but I didn’t know that things had gotten this bad.

Not too long ago, there were about 12 million job openings in the United States. Unfortunately, here in the second half of 2024 that figure has fallen below 8 million…

There were an estimated 7.4 million unfilled jobs on the last day of September, a drop from August’s revised tally of 7.86 million openings, according to new data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The largest drop-offs in openings were in industries that have driven much of the job growth in recent years: health care and social assistance, and government, according to the report.

Meanwhile, major employers continue to shed workers all over the nation.

For example, the U.S. lost a total of 78,000 manufacturing jobs during a recent three month period…

The manufacturing sector continued to shed jobs in October, bringing its tally of job losses to 78,000 over the past three months.

The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday released its jobs report for October, which found that the manufacturing sector lost 46,000 jobs last month, according to the agency’s preliminary analysis.

That followed a loss of 6,000 jobs in September, which is also a preliminary figure, as well as a decline of 26,000 jobs in August.

Every day, there are more layoff announcements in the news, and the number of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased much more than experts were projecting last week…

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time jumped significantly last week (from 225k to 242k – well above expectations of 220k) – the highest since the first week of October.

On an un-adjusted basis, claims exploded higher (highest since January)…

Throughout the second half of this year, I have been arguing that the U.S. economy is rapidly heading in the wrong direction.

Now we have even more confirmation that this is indeed happening.

Once we get past the holiday season, retailers are going to be dropping like flies.

According to the Daily Mail, it appears that Party City could soon be forced to declare bankruptcy…

A major party and craft retailer with 850 stores across the nation is considering filing for bankruptcy.

Party City has been faced with the possibility of mass closures just a little over a year after the company surfaced from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The celebration retailer, known for selling balloons and essential party supplies, is currently behind on rent at some of its locations, people close to the matter told Bloomberg.

And it is being reported that 670 Family Dollar stores have already been shut down…

Discount behemoth Dollar Tree has shuttered 670 of its underperforming Family Dollar stores so far, about two-thirds of the nearly 1,000 it plans to close, as it considers whether to sell or spin off the struggling chain.

The Chesapeake, Virginia-based retailer provided an update on its portfolio optimization efforts when it reported is fiscal third-quarter earnings. Dollar Tree officials also said they were still reviewing options for Family Dollar, with no set deadline or timeline to complete that process.

Overall, thousands upon thousands of retail stores in the U.S. have been shuttered in 2024, and thousands upon thousands will be shuttered in 2025.

In many areas of the country, the landscape is absolutely littered with once thriving businesses that have now been boarded up.

More than a decade ago, I warned that we were headed for a future when impoverished areas of the U.S. would be filled with boarded up businesses and abandoned buildings.

Now we are there.

On top of everything else, inflation is starting to surge once again, and one recent survey discovered that about a third of all U.S. households have been forced to cut back spending just to keep the lights on…

With the cost of things like food and housing still straining people’s budgets, many U.S. households over the past year have found themselves having to pare their spending on basic necessities just to keep the lights on at home.

That’s according to a recent Lending Tree study which analyzed U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data from Aug. 20, 2024 to Sep. 16, 2024 to find the percentage of Americans 18 and older that had cut back on necessary expenses to pay their energy bill, kept their home at an unsafe or unhealthy temperature, or was unable to pay the full amount on an energy bill at least once over the preceding 12 months.

The study found that more than 34% of respondents said they have had to cut back or skip spending on certain necessary expenses at least once over the past year in order to pay their energy bill.

As I discussed the other day, prior to the election most Americans believed that we were already in a recession.

Since the election, conditions have only gotten worse.

Many are hoping that our economic momentum can be reversed once the new administration takes over.

We should all be hoping that is true.

But right now we are on a freight train that is steamrolling in the wrong direction, and that is not good news at all.

* * *

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 15:10

CNN "Discovers" Syrian Prisoner Left Behind In Gulag - Skeptics Claim Incident Was Staged

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 19:35:00 +0000

CNN "Discovers" Syrian Prisoner Left Behind In Gulag - Skeptics Claim Incident Was Staged

Has the establishment media lost their touch when it comes to theatrical propaganda, or is the public becoming more savvy? CNN's reputation for accuracy has been extensively damaged over the past several years; their vitriol over Donald Trump and their defense of fraudulent pandemic narratives are often cited as likely contributors to their embarrassing audience losses. It has gotten to the point where people don't trust anything the outlet does anymore.

A recent broadcast by CNN’s chief international correspondent, Clarissa Ward, has come under fire this week from skeptics who claim the outlet "staged" a dramatic encounter with a lone Assad prisoner trapped in a gulag in Damascus who was allegedly kept in a dark cell for years and did not realize the regime had fallen.

The prisoner, who is found laying under a blanket but looking well dressed, well fed and well groomed, thanks the reporter profusely for saving him, then proceeds to walk outside into the bright daylight without any need to adjust his eyes after his long imprisonment in darkness.

This is so fake haha

To be expected from CNN

pic.twitter.com/UqeMeQoT8q
— Drew Hernandez (@DrewHLive) December 14, 2024

“In nearly twenty years as a journalist, this was one of the most extraordinary moments I have witnessed,” Ward wrote on her X page.

It is fair to say that the interaction comes off as scripted. If so, this does not necessarily mean that CNN or Clarissa Ward was aware of the strange nature of the prisoner or his story. They may very well have believed that the man was a real prisoner trapped in a cell without windows and tortured until Assad was deposed.

In a June 2021 interview with CBS News, Clarissa Ward, openly expressed her fascination with the Syrian “revolution” and her admiration for anti-government “rebels.” “Yeah, I mean, you know, I will cop to the fact that I think I crossed the line in Syria. I became so emotionally involved, and I was crushed by the US response and the US policy,” she admitted to host Michael Morell, advocating for more aggressive “regime change” measures beyond the imposition of crippling sanctions.

CNN was the first Western media to interview Mohammed Al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a militant group backed by the US and Israel. The Biden Administration is currently discussing the possibility of removing the HTS terrorist designation. The US media has invested a considerable amount of positive spin for the Syrian insurgents, and videos like CNN's report from the prison in Damascus are likely to become commonplace over the next few months.

Image management was one of the biggest failures of western intelligence agencies after their initial support for rebel groups in Syria, with many of the same fighters ultimately forming the ISIS terror network and engaging in genocidal activities. Media reports painted the insurgents as pure patriots ready to die for freedom, until videos began to surface of their horrific actions against minority groups including Syrian Christians. The question is, why is the establishment so desperate for the public to have a positive opinion of these rebels?

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 14:35

Is Google's Willow Processor A Threat To Bitcoin?

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 19:00:00 +0000

Is Google's Willow Processor A Threat To Bitcoin?

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Just a couple of days ago I wrote a piece reminding readers that, despite looking at bitcoin more favorably the last year or so, it still remains an unprecedented and opaque area of markets where risk could rear its head quickly, unexpectedly, and before chaos in broader equity and bond markets.

Collectively worth about $3 trillion now, cryptocurrency is like catnip for risk takers right now, I wrote. Then, I looked at the question of quantum computing:

I’ve also often raised the question of what comes next after SHA-256 hash functions and whether or not Bitcoin will be safe amidst the jump to quantum computing.

The prevailing sentiment has always been that to protect the Bitcoin network, miners and those invested in developing the network will have to stay on the forefront of technological change and encryption capabilities to ensure the network doesn’t lose a beat as the world of microprocessing advances. The ‘bull case’ thoughts about this risk, at least according to Michael Saylor the last time I talked to him, was that if you had the power to crack SHA-256 encryption right now, there would be much bigger potential targets to go after than the Bitcoin network, seeing as how the very same encryption ensures the integrity of almost all major, consequential defense, military, and government computer networks worldwide.

Saylor makes a valid point, but as Bitcoin's market cap grows, so does the incentive to hack or compromise its network. With a $1.8 trillion bounty effectively on the line, the temptation for bad actors increases. Fortunately, Bitcoin’s network is built with significant redundancy and safeguards, but the true risks, especially from quantum computing, will only become clear as technology advances.

And in my original case for being less skeptical on bitcoin, out in Spring of this year, I made note of the quantum computing risk I have always mentioned when discussing bitcoin. I wrote:

It’s like the potential impact of quantum computing—I’ve heard both sides of that case and have pretty much acquiesced to the position that it’s a bridge we will have to cross when we get to it.

Finally, back in 2021, in a debate between Peter Schiff and (now indicted) Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky, quantum computing was asked and answered in the same fashion, with the prevailing sentiment being ‘we’ll get to it when we get to it’:

When talking about quantum computing, Mashinsky admits that bitcoin is going to have to be modified over the next decade as quantum computing advances. No one knows what those advancements or changes will look like and who is to say whether the bitcoin you buy today will adhere to the same rules and same mathematical certainties it will after such a modification is made.

Well, to make a long story short, we’re going to have to ‘get to it’ a hell of a lot faster than most people may have thought. That’s because this week, Google introduced its new quantum processor, Willow.

Even for not being a semiconductor nerd, I know the chip marks a groundbreaking leap in quantum computing. It is capable of solving problems in under five minutes that would take traditional supercomputers trillions of years, Willow addresses one of quantum computing's major hurdles—reducing errors as systems scale.

This advancement positions Google as a leader in the quantum field, even as some experts believe commercial uses are still years away, likely around 2030. But needless to say, the announcement has perked up the ears of many, including the cryptocurrency community.

Protos wrote about two ways Google’s new chip and Bitcoin this week. They write the new chip has sparked fears it could pose a serious threat to Bitcoin’s security in two key ways: overtaking Bitcoin's mining network and targeting Satoshi Nakamoto’s dormant coins.

The piece argues that Willow’s breakthrough capabilities allow it to solve problems in minutes that would take supercomputers trillions of years — and that such power could hypothetically outpace Bitcoin’s global mining network, which secures transactions by solving complex cryptographic puzzles.

If Willow could perform this work faster and cheaper than the network, it might seize control of Bitcoin’s blockchain, enabling it to reorder, censor, or even double-spend transactions.

The second potential threat involves Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, who owns over 1 million BTC stored using an older cryptographic format (P2PK) that exposes public keys on the blockchain. A quantum computer could exploit this vulnerability by brute-forcing private keys, potentially unlocking Nakamoto’s holdings. Modern Bitcoin addresses are more quantum-resistant, as they hide public keys until transactions are initiated, reducing the risk of exposure.

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It’s now officially a race, with Coinspeaker noting that the Bitcoin community is actively researching quantum-resistant solutions to safeguard against future advancements in quantum technology.

And while Bitcoin may ultimately come out on top when all is said and done this time, it’s these types of unprecedented risks and uncertainties that, to me, continue to make gold the granddaddy of all stores of value and safety.

Bitcoin trades like a risk asset because it will face countless new tests like this that gold has already endured over the past 5,000 years. One by one, Bitcoin will need to 'pass' each of these tests if it aims to maintain value over anywhere near the time horizon gold has achieved.

If nothing else, the announcement of Willow and the ensuing discussion should serve as a wake-up call to the dormant nervous systems of Bitcoin holders and maximalists. They must remember that while Bitcoin has passed every test over the past 15 years, there will undoubtedly be more bumps in the road along its adoption curve.

I continue to own some Bitcoin but still firmly believe that gold remains the ultimate store of value and the best way to preserve wealth when opting out of the fiat money system.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 14:00

Georgia's New President, An Ex-Soccer Player, Solidifies Anti-EU Leadership

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 18:25:00 +0000

Georgia's New President, An Ex-Soccer Player, Solidifies Anti-EU Leadership

The Republic of Georgia has a new president, and he is a former professional footballer for Manchester City: 53-year old Mikheil Kavelashvili of Georgian Dream party.

He emerged victorious on Saturday, but was the only candidate, after 224 out of 225 members of Georgia's electoral college voted him in. This is after the country's main opposition groups declared a boycott of parliament, claiming the October elections which saw the Dream Party sweep were rigged.

Mikheil Kavelashvili, via APA

Large pro-EU protests have since been a mainstay in the capital of Tbilisi. "According to the results provided by the secretary general [of the Central Election Commission/CEC], Mikhail Kavelashvili has been elected president," CEC Chairman Giorgi Kalandarishvili announced this weekend.

Kavelashvili's inauguration is set for December 29, and that too is likely to be heavily protested, amid police deploying riot control methods against larger and larger crowds all this month.

Western media describes him as "far right" and a hardline critic of the West, as well as 'conspiratorial' given he has in the recent past claimed that Western interests are seeking to drive Georgia into conflict with Russia.

Who is Mikheil Kavelashvili?

One European source provides the following brief backgrounder...

It has been an unlikely path to the presidency for Kavelashvili, who emerged from Dinamo Tblisi's youth system as a promising young footballer in 1989. He went on to build a successful career as a striker, becoming a regular for his local team before moving to Russian side Spartak Vladikavkaz in 1995.

He then joined English side Manchester City for two seasons before playing for several different Swiss Super League teams and retiring in 2006. During his playing career, he amassed 46 appearances for the Georgian national team and scored nine goals.

Just 10 years after his retirement from the football world, he was elected to Georgia's parliament in 2016 on the Georgian Dream ticket. In 2022, he co-founded the People’s Power political movement, which was allied with Georgian Dream and became known for its strong anti-western rhetoric.

Mikheil Kavelashvili, right, in 2007.The Press Service of the Georgian Parliament.

He has been criticized for lack of governing credentials, despite having previously been an MP. More from EuroNews:

Kavelashvili has often been mocked by the opposition in Georgia for lacking higher education. On the day of his election as president, protesters outside the parliament building brought their own university diplomas, while others kicked around footballs.

Kavelashvili was one of the authors of a controversial law requiring organisations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “pursuing the interest of a foreign power,” similar to a Russian law used to discredit organizations critical of the government.

Day 18th of non-stop protests.
Tbilisi. Now#GeorgiaProtests

pic.twitter.com/wGY1Sf6wI3
— Tata Chemia 🇬🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 (@tchemia) December 15, 2024

The dividing lines for Georgia's current crisis, which has seen the Dream Party solidify complete control of the government - but with unrest in the streets - is much like Ukraine's political divide in 2014. But let's hope the situation doesn't turn to open conflict involving the US or Russia, which is something officials in Tbilisi have long been worried about.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 13:25

US In 'Direct Contact' With Designated Terror Group HTS, Blinken Admits

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 17:15:00 +0000

US In 'Direct Contact' With Designated Terror Group HTS, Blinken Admits

The US has made "direct contact" with the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani which now holds Damascus and most major Syrian cities in the wake of Assad's fall.

"We’ve been in contact with HTS and with other parties," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said following talks with Arab diplomats in Aqaba, Jordan.

This is the first official acknowledgement that the Biden administration is interacting with HTS, which has long been an officially US-designated terror organization, as it originated as Syrian al-Qaeda. Jolani also was once the personal envoy of ISIS terror leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

NBC News has underscored, "The U.S. designates HTS a terrorist organization, making it legally impossible to work with the group, but contact underscores ongoing efforts to change that designation as the U.S. and its allies look to support Syria's transition from Assad rule."

A statement from Blinken's meetings in Aqaba and signed by representatives of the US, EU, Turkey and several Arab countries called for a "a more hopeful, secure and peaceful future". It urged the protection of women and all ethnic and religious minorities, and for the preventing of "the reemergence of all terrorist groups."

Also, Jordan's foreign minister stressed that regional powers don't want to see post-Assad Syria "descend into chaos". Given that it remains formally listed as a terror group, HTS was not represented in the Jordan meeting.

The EU has also listed HTS as a terror group. Jolani still has a $10 million bounty on his head. Ironically he has been seen openly at well-known areas of Damascus, and the US could target him if it wanted to - but is clearly not.

"As we see Syria move in that direction and, in a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned process, take these steps, we in turn will look at various sanctions and other measures that we’ve taken and respond in kind," Blinken said from Aqaba.

Blinken affirmed the US position on Syria has been "communicated" to the new HTS leaders. Ironically, this comes after years of the US refusing to engage diplomatically with Bashar al-Assad, who was a secular ruler.

The US had shuttered its embassy and severed relations going all the way back to 2012. Since then there have been minimal back-channel efforts to communicate with Assad officials.

Is Jolani’s beard becoming shorter every week or is it me pic.twitter.com/KbdI4apbVC
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 14, 2024

Meanwhile, there have been reports that the Biden White House, with a mere weeks to go until Trump enters office, could actually remove HTS' terror designation. This despite its long documented links to both Al Qaeda and Islamic State in the not too distant past.

Washington has since 2011 pursued regime change against Assad, and though Syria emerged victorious by the early 2020s, the Army and country appeared demoralized after years of US-imposed strangling sanctions, and with US troops occupying the country's oil and gas fields in the northeast.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 12:15

20 (Or So) Obvious Questions About January 6

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 16:40:00 +0000

20 (Or So) Obvious Questions About January 6

Authored by Jack Cashill via American Thinker,

Even before Donald Trump ascends to the presidency on January 20, his appointees should ask themselves the questions that follow — all of them simple and straightforward. With Christopher Wray stepping down from the FBI directorship, they will have a much better chance of getting straight answers quickly.

Trump’s team should then share those answers widely. This information will make President Trump’s pardon of more than 1,500 Americans much more comprehensible to the American public and much less controversial.

–Although now the FBI admits to having 26 confidential human sources in the crowd on January 6, how many total “assets” did the FBI and other entities plant, and what roles did they play?

–Was Ray Epps working for an entity? And if so, under what terms?

–Who planted the pipe bombs outside the DNC and near the RNC headquarters?

–Who instructed Kamala Harris to conceal the fact that she was at the DNC when the bomb was found and why?

–Why did Harris allow hundreds of J6ers to be prosecuted for threatening her designated space at the Capitol when she wasn’t at the Capitol?

–Who were the “two law enforcement officials” who told the New York Times that “pro-Trump rioters” fatally struck Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick with a fire extinguisher, inflicting “a bloody gash in his head”?

–Who orchestrated the 100-day-plus suppression of Sicknick’s autopsy report?

–If Sicknick was not murdered, as the DOJ finally conceded, why did a federal judge give Julian Khater an 80-month prison sentence for spritzing Sicknick with an over-the-counter pepper spray?

–Has there been an official inquiry into the subsequent suicide deaths of four USCP officers, and if not, why has the DOJ routinely blamed the J6ers for causing those deaths?

–Why was there no crime scene investigation in the likely homicide of Rosanne Boyland?

–Who chose to ignore the obvious video evidence of Boyland being suffocated as a result of a police action and to falsely blame her death on an amphetamine overdose?

–Who suppressed the Boyland autopsy report for 90 days and stonewalled her family at every turn?

–Why was Lila Morris, the Metropolitan P.D. officer caught on video repeatedly bashing the unconscious Boyland over the head with a tree branch, not even disciplined?

–Why was Metropolitan P.D. lieutenant Jason Bagshaw promoted despite having been caught on video bashing the defenseless Victoria White bloody?

–Why did the DOJ not interview the eyewitnesses to the shooting death of Ashli Babbitt?

–Why did the USCP coddle and promote Babbitt’s killer, Michael Byrd, despite a shooting that, according to use-of-force expert Stan Kephart, “violated not only the law but his oath”?

–Who ordered the “shock and awe” raids on the homes of hundreds of non-violent protesters and why?

–Why has the so-called “Scaffold Commander” not been arrested despite multiple clear images of his face?

–Why has the man who constructed the mock gallows on the Capitol grounds not been arrested despite multiple clear images of his face?

–Why did the USCP allow the gallows to stand unmolested on Capitol grounds for more than four hours before the crowds gathered?

–Why was Emanuel Jackson quickly set free despite having been caught on video swinging a baseball bat at police officers over a two-hour period?

–If there was no insurrection, as the DOJ conceded, why were the sentences given to the J6ers so much more severe than the $30–50 fines given to the protesters who physically obstructed the Kavanaugh hearings?

These are the simple questions, the ones off the top. I am sure readers will think of others I may have overlooked. To be sure, more probing questions need to be asked about the January 6 Select Committee report as well as the charging documents for the J6ers.

Having read through much of this material, I am impressed by how casually — and routinely — our elected officials and federal jurists distort the facts to protect the party line. In short, they lie, and some have done so under oath.

I am impressed, too, by the shamelessness of a DOJ that can boast of its success rate in securing convictions, knowing that the accused were allowed no change of venue and faced juries pulled from a pool 95 percent anti-Trump. This needs to change.

More questions need to be asked as well about the security failures at all levels on January 6. In his otherwise worthy book, Government Gangsters, Kash Patel more or less exonerates the Pentagon. He should not have. Incompetence explains much of what went wrong on January 6, but so does treason.

Nearly 1,600 American citizens were arrested for exercising their First Amendment rights on January 6, and roughly half of them have been incarcerated. Save for the insurrectionists among them — if there were any — the rest deserve not just commutation of their sentences, but a full pardon. Many may deserve compensation. And all deserve the truth.

To learn more, see Jack Cashill’s newest book, Ashli: The Untold Story of the Women of January 6.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 11:40

Russian Forces Destroy More US Patriot Launchers & Advance Closer To Pokrovsk

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 16:05:00 +0000

Russian Forces Destroy More US Patriot Launchers & Advance Closer To Pokrovsk

Amid the continued rapid advance of Russian forces in Ukraine's east, and with the Donetsk villages of Vesely Gai and Pushkino (15km south of Pokrovsk) having been captured, Russia is also going after US-made Patriot batteries.

"Russian forces have destroyed four Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers provided to Ukraine by Western nations," the Defense Ministry announced Saturday.

Ministerie van Defensie/Moscow Times

The statement said that air force jets along with with drones and artillery groups, "destroyed a combat control vehicle, an AN/MPQ-65 radar station and four launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system made in the US."

Zelensky has pleaded with the West to hand Ukraine at least 25 Patriot batteries, and some European countries have recently donated theirs to Ukrainian forces.

This isn't the first time that Russia has taken out Patriots. Back in October the defense ministry said its forces struck "two Patriot launcher stations made in the US" along with a control station and radar set part of the Patriot defensive network.

At that time a Ukrainian member of parliament had revealed that at least one Patriot battery was damaged in the October attack, but Kiev typically doesn't comment on the extent of damage to its Western-supplied weapons systems.

Early last summer the Biden administration took the drastic step of pausing all Patriot deliveries to allies, instead announcing that they would be redirected to Ukraine.

"We’re going to reprioritize the deliveries of these exports so that those missiles rolling off the production line will now be provided to Ukraine," Biden said at the time, with these first shipments having rolled out by late summer and into fall.

Patriot missile batteries have also been sent to to Ukraine from US bases of operations in neighboring Poland. All of this has been controversial as it impacts Europe's home defense.

In almost a month we have not seen a single North Korea fighter in Russia or Ukraine. Dead or alive. Daily Mail even had to fake one. You think maybe the whole thing was just propaganda designed to justify more NATO escalation? https://t.co/Geet6TL5q7
— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) December 11, 2024

President Biden at the start of that prior initiative had announced that "everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met" amid the broader push to get more European countries to donate weapons.

Meanwhile there are more indicators that Ukraine's front lines are crumbling:

Ukraine's military leadership has replaced the commander overseeing defenses in the eastern Donetsk region where Russian forces are making swift advances, a military official said on Saturday.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, 54, was appointed to head the operational and tactical group Donetsk, replacing General Oleksandr Lutsenko, the official at the General Staff told Reuters.

The weekend report further said, "Lutsenko was criticized by Ukrainian military bloggers and some lawmakers for failing to stop Russian troops' relentless push toward the strategic Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk."

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 11:05

New Theory: NJ Drone Sightings May Be "Nuclear Sniffers" Following Elevated NYC Radiation Levels

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 15:30:00 +0000

New Theory: NJ Drone Sightings May Be "Nuclear Sniffers" Following Elevated NYC Radiation Levels

The founder of an aerospace company specializing in military-grade drones published a video on the Chinese social media platform TikTok, sharing his thoughts on the mystery drone sightings in New Jersey. His expert opinion is alarming, leaving many wishing that Paul Krugman's theory about an alien invasion was true instead.

Source: Fox News

"I spoke to a gentleman a few months ago, who was trying to raise the alarm to the highest levels of our government ... about this one particular nuclear warhead that he physically put his hands on ... that was left over from Ukraine ... and he knew this thing was headed towards the United States," Saxon Aerospace's John Ferguson stated in the video.

He continued: "Everyone knows that this administration is pushing to get into war with Russia."

"Let's back up a few years ... remember when those drones were mysteriously flying across I-70 from Colorado to Nebraska to Kansas and then to Missouri? Well, it was believed that those drones were looking for radioactive material that came up missing in the US," Ferguson noted.

Ferguson then explained the various payloads drones can support, such as laser sensors and optics, and he added, "Drones have no reason to fly at night... Because they don't see shit. Unless you have thermal optics - drones really don't see stuff at night - mapping must be done during the day."

Ferguson then segued into the purported drone sightings in New Jersey, noting, "These drones are not nefarious in intent ... but if they're drones - the only reason they would be flying - and flying that low at night - is because they're trying to smell something on the ground."

"My belief is that these drones are trying to smell something on the ground - if that's gas leaks or radioactive material - or whatever."

John Ferguson, the CEOof Saxon Aerospace, a manufacturer of manned drones, gives his assessment of all the mysterious drones plaguing New Jersey and other places in America right now. pic.twitter.com/vx299AimAj
— Mila Joy (@MilaLovesJoe) December 14, 2024

Ferguson's theory was also shared with X user JerseyFutures (account now deleted), a self-proclaimed RF engineer, who speculated, "What you're seeing is American-made HPGe nuclear detector drones..."

pic.twitter.com/a8NHe1HIJa
— Bob's News (@dyversityhire) December 14, 2024

Simultaneously, the website Geiger Counter World Map shows counts per minute between 222 and 278 in New York City.

Radiation Exposure Scale...

Google searches for "real-time radiation map" have erupted.

Searches for "dirty bombs" have also erupted.

Meanwhile, these purported drone sightings are happening around Congressional action on counter-drone authorities and expansion... We explained this on Saturday:

NJ Drone 'Invasion' Just In Time For Congress To Reauthorize Orwellian Law https://t.co/6tLkbDAP8u
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 14, 2024

The mass hysteria surrounding drone sightings appears to have been exaggerated by MSM (Covid-style propaganda) and some on social media for multiple reasons:

Perhaps as a cover for drones with nuclear sniffer sensors seeking to find a potential threat.
Or, could this be a deliberate attempt to scare the nation with a drone psyop in order to push through H.R.8610, the Counter-UAS Authority Security, Safety, and Reauthorization Act of 2024?

On Saturday, NJ State Senator Jon Bramnick told NewsNation, "There must be something going on that they can't tell us because they're so fearful of what the public is going to do when they hear what the drones are doing."

JUST IN: NJ State Senator suggests the federal gov. is hiding something so massive involving the drones that they are forced to cover it up in fear of all-out panic from the public.

The comments were made by State Sen. Jon Bramnick on NewsNation.

"There must be something going… pic.twitter.com/77hfXnEkWp
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 14, 2024

Bramnick emphasized: "The Department of Defense has to come clean with the American public."

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 10:30

Come Hell Or Hyperinflation

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 14:20:00 +0000

Come Hell Or Hyperinflation

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I can’t imagine how any sane person would take a look at this article I published last week and conclude anything other than that the stock market is extremely overvalued.

And I mean, heading into nosebleed, unprecedented territory.

Yet the market continues to rage higher, and nobody seems concerned. To me, this means there is only one legitimate question investors should ask themselves heading into 2025.

To put it simply, that question is: “Is it different this time?”

Investors often joke about the phrase “it’s different this time” as a way to ironically note that it is never different and the market always winds up puking back bad investments and healing itself of speculation, euphoria, frauds, and all the other wonderful things that come with perpetual bull markets fueled by money printing.

But I think that’s the legitimate question investors need to meditate on heading into the new year. Because if it really isn’t different this time, and all the laws of economics and historical market norms of the past apply, we’re undoubtedly due for a catastrophic crash in the stock market at some point. I can’t pinpoint which hole on which balance sheet will catalyze it, but I’m certain there is more than enough detritus and buildup floating around out there to light multiple crash fuses at once.

I’ve often said on this blog that institutions are panicking, businesses are imploding, frauds are running out of runway, and massive write-downs are being pushed off for just one more quarter right now, as you read this very sentence. We just won’t find out about them until further down the road.

Not unlike monetary policy and the effect of interest rates, there is always a lag in reality making its way to the surface in financial markets. The trillion-dollar question is how long it’ll take, what means it will rear its head through, and what the public reaction will be.

Let’s take a step back and examine a couple of the historical indicators that were pointed out last week.

How about the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) nearing all time highs?

How about the S&P deviations from its historic value also nearing all time highs?

How about the U.S. at 75 year highs against the rest of the world?

How about all time highs in stock concentration in the Top 10 S&P 500 names?

Now, looking at these figures, how can anybody conclude that valuations will stay where they are in perpetuity?

After all, if you are bleeding bullishness at this point and throwing money hand over fist at a market with a Shiller price-to-earnings ratio of 38x (second highest in history, second only to the dot com bubble), you essentially are voting with your capital that valuations will stay this extended—or get more extended—over time.

Certainly, one could theorize that earnings growth over time will make up the difference, but that’s a really tough scenario to seriously entertain with positive real rates and interest rates still near historical highs.

There is the unrelenting reality that high rates are going to continue to slowly and steadily chip away at the American consumer’s discretionary cash, and this is starting to be reflected in macroeconomic data like dwindling savings and increasing delinquencies across all types of credit. There’s still no doubt in my mind that the math underlying the entire economic picture guarantees we are going to have a larger hiccup down the road and significantly more volatility for markets at some point before the Fed reacts.

So what could the bull case possibly be if I still believe that? Well, take a look at what happened heading into COVID. We essentially shut down the entire economy, and while the market crashed temporarily, the Fed quickly threw $5 trillion+ on its balance sheet and printed enough money to paper over the actual economy with a fake fiat substitute, disguised as “economic stimulus.” A ton of this money then poured into capital markets and continues to do so. As everybody witnessed, stock indexes—let alone innumerable individual stock examples — increased by multiples off their lows hit back in 2020. GDP increased less than 20% since 2020 lows, yet the NASDAQ - an index - fucking tripled in 5 years. Louder for people in the back.

The NASDAQ - an index - has f*cking TRIPLED in just 5 years.

Not. Normal.

It has been a straight-up, full-force gale rocket launch into the stratosphere, without any rhyme or reason, in stock markets over the last five years, and we have our insane, flawed monetary policy to thank for it.

The point I’m trying to make is not whether or not we should be comparing fundamental crash apples to fundamental healthy economy and consumer oranges; it’s simply a broader question of whether our stock market is permanently broken as a result of a backhanded embrace of hyperinflation or if we will ever return to historical norms.

The real fly in the ointment is going to be when inflation does not come back to expected norms—or if it does and then immediately skyrockets higher once the Fed starts printing again. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think the market will eventually correct at some point, and the only question then is how the Federal Reserve reacts to it.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

If inflation is still at 2.7%, how is the Fed going to justify a return to quantitative easing and lower rates? They’ll need a public PR campaign that essentially convinces the American public that more inflation—say, a 3% target for “temporary” purposes—is acceptable. This is essentially the public accepting another step toward hyperinflation.

If the Fed chooses not to immediately jump to the rescue of markets during a correction, the issues are going to compound, and all of the economic filth that has been swept under the rug over the last five years is going to start rearing its ugly head. And instead of a rocket ship heading to the stratosphere, we’ll have a snowball made of economic dog shit rolling down a hill, forcing more fraud and bad investments out of the woodwork as it picks up steam until it eventually starts to look like something out of the Book of Revelation. The Fed’s hands are going to be tied in this instance.

I think we all know that the heavy favorite in a situation like this is the Fed trying to calm markets and thereby embracing more inflation. If that happens, and they somehow get the public to acquiesce to the idea that more inflation is OK, or is going to be the norm, or is necessary to prevent the collapse of the economy, then there really will be a case for stocks trading at insane historical valuations. The case will essentially be that the entire United States economic system as we’ve known it over the last hundred years is now fundamentally broken.

If I’m right, there’s a greater than 0% chance that we may never seen 2% inflation again.

In other words, we will have gone from a normal, rational market with sound money and consequences for bad investments to a central-bank-socialized fiat money inflation machine. In circumstances like that, why would anybody worry about valuations? Why would anybody worry about how much a company returns to shareholders in net income? Not trying to be hyperbolic, but why would anybody worry about anything? For all intents and purposes, if the markets become a full-on socialized subsidiary of central banks—even more so than they already are—there will be no guardrails or fundamentals left to even cling to. We’ll talk about P/E ratios and generating profits the way people talk about the phonograph nowadays.

One thing that’s fun to do is look back at countries that have experienced hyperinflation and see what their stock markets have done. Take a look at Venezuela’s stock market as the country suffered from inflation: it’s done nothing but rage higher.

Holy sh*t, we’re all rich!

Of course, these gains have all come in nominal terms and mean nothing because each country’s entire respective economy has entered into full collapse, completely destroying its middle and lower classes while barely allowing its upper class to maintain some semblance of wealth.

For the love of God, won’t someone tell this kid he’s a trillionaire?

At that point, nothing will matter because society will be in such disarray that stock valuations will be very low on the pecking order of priorities for most Americans.

I see these signs out there now for the U.S.

There is endless hubris and arrogance on social media as it relates to the stock market. I have watched dozens of obvious frauds called out over the last few years with little or no consequences. We have an entirely new, perplexing asset class in cryptocurrency, which has amassed a multi-trillion-dollar market cap, despite continued questions about what most of it will ever be used for. The introduction of a new generation of retail stock market investors over the last 10 years has diluted the pool of market participants, who once, on average, at least had a shred of sophistication about what they were investing in and why. Now, our stock market has become nothing more than a glorified, digital roulette wheel, with clueless teens and 20-somethings placing bets and simply hoping that they score big - then posting their wins and losses on r/WallStreetBets.

Similarly, as investing has evolved, so has online gambling. On my Instagram feed, I frequently see people live-streaming their gambling on online casinos. Many of them aren’t playing slots or online poker; instead, they’re literally playing games that simulate coin flips, repeatedly mashing a button until their account balance goes up or down. As the gambling industry has devolved, so has the stock market, which isn’t far removed from the coin-flip game I’m describing.

These investors are the highly volatile super short chain hydrocarbon gasoline fueling much of the euphoria in markets now. The kind of gasoline that catches fire when you just look at it the wrong way. People feel like they cannot lose and they’re dumbfounded when they do:

And when you don’t consider nominal gains (Venezuelan stock market) versus real ones, and when you have a Federal Reserve whose unwritten third mandate is to protect equity markets, the people who feel like they “cannot lose” might be “right” all the way to hyperinflation.

The question I’ll be trying to handicap going into the new year is whether or not this time really is different. Because the difference between reverting to historical averages on stock indexes or multiple expansion into the 40x to 50x territory is the $100 trillion question. And while I don’t have the answer today, I will be doing nothing but looking for clues as to which direction we are heading in as time progresses. Spotting these waypoints before the rest of the market will be the name of the game in 2025, if you ask me.

As always, I’d welcome your thoughts over at Fringe Finance in the comments.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 09:20

Is Copper Still The 'New Oil'?

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 13:45:00 +0000

Is Copper Still The 'New Oil'?

In 2021, Goldman Sachs declared copper "the new oil", highlighting its essential role in clean energy technologies.

Two years later, the IMF forecasted that copper demand will rise by over 66% from 2020 to 2040 as the world transitions away from oil.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu illustrates how copper demand is projected to increase over the coming decades, while oil consumption is expected to decrease.

The data was compiled by the International Monetary Fund as of October 2024.

Rising Copper Demand

Copper is critical for a wide range of applications, including the electrical grid, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy technologies.

Beyond clean energy, copper is also extensively used in industries such as construction, infrastructure, and defense due to its unique properties.

As a result, global copper demand is projected to grow from 25.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 39.1 million tonnes by 2040 under a net-zero emissions scenario that limits average temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Much of this growth is expected to come from the EV industry.

Many components of battery electric vehicles rely on copper. On average, a standard EV contains 60-83 kg of copper, four times more than an internal combustion engine vehicle, which typically uses 15-20 kg of copper per car.

Meanwhile, oil consumption is projected to decrease, dropping from 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023 to 66 million barrels per day by 2040.

The decline in oil use is driven by global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and the growing adoption of renewable energy. Additionally, improvements in energy efficiency and policy regulations are further curbing oil demand.

If you want to learn more about this topic, check out this graphic showing the top 12 countries by fossil fuel consumption in 2023.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 08:45

NATO Head Says "Wartime Mindset" Needed; Redirect "Pensions, Health, Social Security" To Military Spending

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 13:10:00 +0000

NATO Head Says "Wartime Mindset" Needed; Redirect "Pensions, Health, Social Security" To Military Spending

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who was this year selected as the Secretary General of NATO, has stated that Europeans need to “shift to a wartime mindset” and that military spending must be increased, likely at the expense of things like health care.

Rutte made the remarks at, ironically, a meeting of The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Brussels, declaring that Russia is trying to “crush our freedom and way of life.”

“Hostile actions against Allied countries are real and accelerating… These attacks are not just isolated incidents. They are the result of a coordinated campaign to destabilise our societies and discourage us from supporting Ukraine,” he added.

We can prevent the next big war on #NATO territory and preserve our way of life.

This requires us all to be faster and fiercer.

It is time to shift to a wartime mindset.

And turbo-charge our defence production and defence spending. pic.twitter.com/J0ZF0LrbVs
— Mark Rutte (@SecGenNATO) December 12, 2024

Rutte further asserted that Russia is using unconventional “hybrid warfare” attacks against Europe, circumventing NATO’s traditional defence and bringing “the front line to our front doors. Even into our homes”.

“Ukrainians are fighting against Russian swarms of drones. That’s what we need to be prepared for”, Rutte told the conference.

“I know spending more on defence means spending less on other priorities. But it is only a little less,” he continued, adding that “On average, European countries easily spend up to a quarter of their national income on pensions, health and social security systems.”

“We need a small fraction of that money to make our defences much stronger, and to preserve our way of life,” he proclaimed, reasoning that “freedom does not come for free.”

Nato boss Mark Rutte calls on European members of Nato to spend less on pensions, health and social security and more on defence “to preserve our way of life”. So the poor must pay for endless Nato wars? pic.twitter.com/gWi6ABthez
— John Moran (@RueDaungier) December 12, 2024

Hundreds of billions have been sent to Ukraine, and for what? How much more do they want?

I don’t think many people will be fighting to defend the Globalist war machine run by utter lunatics intent on the destruction of the World.

Looks like you will be fighting this on your own 😂
— Lionbush (@Lionbush) December 13, 2024

Take a weapon and take all you NATO warmongering politicians with you and go on the front to stand behind your words. No one needs you! The people didn‘t chose you.
— Danijel ₿arukcic (@BarukcicDanijel) December 14, 2024

You're never out of a wartime mindset
Our economy is a wartime economy
20 years in Afghanistan the war never meant to won.
Immediately back into the swing of it with Ukraine, Israel, Syria and who knows what else.
You need war and it's death, destruction, suffering because it's…
— John Slawinski (@SlawinskiJohn) December 12, 2024

Rutte’s call to institute a wartime mindset among Europeans was also recently echoed by Admiral Rob Bauer, the most senior military officer at NATO who said that “luxuries” will have to be sacrificed for freedom.

“If you ramp up your deterrence and if you ramp up support to Ukraine, there will be less money to spend on other things. It will take away some of our luxuries, it will require sacrifice,” Bauer stated.

Chairman of NATO’s Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer:

‘Europeans must sacrifice our ‘luxuries’ to continue supporting Ukraine’

The working classes of Europe, living in constant economic struggle as European economies become more mediocre by the day under the weight of… pic.twitter.com/uxfJmEXxoA
— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) November 27, 2024

The free world desperately needs leader who is committed to peace and not endless warmongering.

* * *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 08:10

These Are The Countries With The Highest Food Inflation In 2024

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 12:35:00 +0000

These Are The Countries With The Highest Food Inflation In 2024

Rising food inflation impacts global food security and disproportionately affects vulnerable populations.

But from South America to Africa and the Middle East, which countries are the hardest hit by increasing food prices in 2024?

This bar chart, via Visual Capitalist's Selin Oğuz, sponsored by Brazil Potash, uses the latest data from Trading Economics to show which countries have the highest food inflation.

Food Inflation Trends by Country and Region

Leading all countries, Argentina is grappling with a 183% year-over-year increase in food prices. The country also has the highest forecasted food inflation in the world, at 120%, for next year’s second quarter.

Argentina’s high food inflation stems from a mix of its currency devaluation, severe droughts, reliance on exports, economic instability, and political unrest.

Palestine is the runner-up for the highest food inflation with 115%. However, it is forecasted to lower dramatically to 12% halfway through 2025.

Meanwhile, six of the next eight countries are all in Africa. The African countries with the highest food inflation are Zimbabwe at 105% and South Sudan at 96%.

At the same time, other African nations, like Malawi, Nigeria, and Angola, face rates between 34% and 44%, highlighting the broader food inflation trend across the continent.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 07:35

Peace In Ukraine

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 12:00:00 +0000

Peace In Ukraine

Authored by Tumoas Malinen via substack,

The conflict in Ukraine, having passed the 1000-day mark, is approaching a very unpleasant stalemate, for all. Russian forces are pushing through the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which in some places seem to be in almost chaotic retreat. The situation calls for rapid actions to stop the conflict from spiraling out of control and escalating into World War III.

The war in Ukraine has also become highly emotionalized, due to the relentless war propaganda spewed especially by the European mainstream media. This has created something of an emotional blockade among politicians, making it difficult for them to engage in negotiations that would require both sides to compromise. The dominant narrative is that Ukraine must win, leaving little room for exploring other solutions to the conflict.

Regardless, the path to peace lies in return to realpolitik in Europe, that is, a return to political principles based on practical, not value-based or ideological, considerations.

Essentially, there are six facts successful peace negotiations in Ukraine need to be based on:

In all non-nuclear military scenarios Russia will emerge as the victor in the Ukraine conflict.
Russia is unlikely to seek occupation of all of Ukraine.
Negotiations will have to fulfil (almost) all of Kremlin’s publicly declared goals, i.e. neutrality, limited military, territorial loss, non-membership in NATO but perhaps membership of the EU.
A credible force must be assigned to establish and monitor the line of ceasefire.
Due to a lack of mutual trust, all parties must commit to pre-agreement acts of de-escalation.
Post-war collapse of Ukraine must be prevented to avoid widespread and well-armed terrorism/banditry in the surrounding areas. Collapse will commence unless all parties commit to support Ukraine pre-agreement.

Pre-conditions for negotiations

Russia in Ukraine

There’s no denying that Russia is obliterating not just the AFU, but also Ukrainian society. Russian troops are advancing rapidly, and the air raids over the weekend of 16-17th of November 2024, implied that the Kremlin is ready to push Ukraine into darkness. Moreover, Russia struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) “Oreshnik” carrying a non-nuclear payload on early morning of 21st November. These entail that there is only one (non-nuclear) endgame in Ukraine: capitulation of the AFU, either through negotiated peace or surrender.

For these reasons, the path to peace needs to be sought from the original aims of Kremlin. The publicly stated aims of the Special Military Operation (SMO), which commenced on February 24, 2022, were four:

Defending the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics under the Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.
To clear “neo-Nazis” from Ukrainian leadership.
To stop the nuclear weapons program of Ukraine.
To stop and remove the NATO infrastructure being build, threatening Russia, from Ukraine.

In simplified terms, and as is widely known, the aim was a “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. The term denazification is very elusive and it was probably used to draw sympathy from Russian citizens, by linking the SMO into the Great Patriotic War. It is quite unclear, whether there was a nuclear weapons program in Ukraine. This claim was likely aimed at Russian populace to provide further justification for the war. So, #1 and #4 can be considered as the actual aims of the Kremlin. There is where the path to peace lies.

It can also be assumed that the full collapse and occupation of Ukraine is not something the Kremlin is seeking either. The costs of the annexation of Crimea in early 2014 to Russia’s fiscal balance were staggering. The economic foundations, including tourism and private businesses, on the Peninsula collapsed and Russia emptied her Sovereign Reserve Fund to pay for the costs of annexation. The second military phase of the conflict has close to halved the size of the National Wealth Fund, with its value falling by $79 billion since February 2022, despite rising energy prices. The Kremlin simply cannot first destroy most of Ukraine in a war and then hold and rebuild it, because this would collapse Russian state finances.

Goals of Kreml and the line of ceasefire

The stated aims of the SMO listed above imply that Russia is seeking for the neutrality of Ukraine (from NATO), its limited military capacity and territorial annexation of Eastern Ukraine, more specifically Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblast, mostly inhabited by ethnic Russians. Russia unilaterally declared an annexation of these areas, but did not set their exact boundaries, which would be “defined later”, on September 30, 2022. This implies that the area-concession were not carved in stone and would most likely depend on a set of other factors, including how strong the Kremlin sees the commitment of the U.S. to the neutrality of Ukraine to be.

Because Russia is dominating the developments on the battlefield, peace needs to be made on the terms of Kremlin. If this is not accepted, Kreml can push the AFU to unconditional surrender effectively leading to the same end-result, but with more dire implications for the West.

The stability of the cease-fire and establishing the buffer-zone between the AFU and Russian forces is paramount. The OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation) mission to eastern Ukraine, between March 2014 and March 2022, was a failure with the mission failing to objectively report on developments on the ground and to stop the war from escalating. Both the current Russian and the forthcoming U.S. administration have had serious reservations towards the United Nations. Yet, mostly due to this, it’s likely to be the only entity in the world that can effectively establish and control the buffer-zone and ceasefire. This is because under the U.N. neither side, the U.S./NATO or Russia, would have any direct control on the mission, which would report to the Security Council, where all major nuclear nations would monitor the ceasefire and creation of the buffer-zone. This would be the best shot for establishing an objective oversight of the line of ceasefire.

Rebuilding trust through pre-agreement acts of de-escalation

The Russo-Ukrainian war sowed division within Europe and between Russia and NATO/U.S. The war propaganda in Europe created hostilities towards Russia and Russians. In the propaganda of the Kremlin, this was used to justify the aggression towards Ukraine and question the motives of the West.

The deepening involvement of NATO in Ukraine has been a driving force of escalation. It was a generally held view, prior the Russo-Ukrainian war, that no country involved to an armed conflict could be taken as a member of NATO. Yet, with Ukraine something changed, with the NATO leadership effectively “annexing” Ukraine. On February 24, 2024, the former Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, even stated that “Ukraine will join NATO. It is not a question of if, but of when”. The new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, has continued on the same line of argumentation.

The strikes of the AFU on Russian early-warning systems (over-the-horizon radars) operating in Krasnodar Krai near Ukraine, and in Orenburg region near Orsk some 1500 km from Ukraine, during this year, were extremely sinister actions of escalation. The radars had no role in the conflict of Ukraine, with the radar in Orsk not even looking in the direction of Ukraine. The strikes of the AFU were conventional strikes on nuclear forces and command and control systems, which Russia listed as one of the conditions for nuclear weapons usage. Fortunately, Kreml did not react.

The fact also is that the war in Ukraine should have stopped in late spring of 2022. At that point the Kremlin had reached most of its stated goals of the SMO. Peace negotiations held in Istanbul, Turkey, in March/April 2022 were reported to have reached an agreement of truce before the U.S. and the U.K. allegedly stepped in and effectively stopped the peace process. During the summer of 2024, Ukraine and the West were also signaling willingness for a peaceful resolution, which were cautiously welcomed by the Kremlin. Then, in August 2024, the AFU invaded the Kursk region in Russia. Moreover, the Minsk agreements, signed in September 2014 and February 2015 officially aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine, were actually used just to buy time to arm Ukraine against Russia.

For these reasons, trust between the parties needs to be re-built. Pre-agreement acts of de-escalation should include:

Russia limiting her military presence to ceded areas and evacuates attack systems to sufficient distance from borders (established line of ceasefire) of the remaining Ukraine. Russia also commits to avoid further use of arms in Europe, to participate in the rebuilding of Ukraine and declares willingness to renewed trade if sanctions are lifted.
The EU and the US stop all deliveries of weapons and volunteers to Ukraine immediately and declare willingness to deactivate economic sanctions.
The U.S. and Russia announce their commitment on the independence and neutrality of (remaining) Ukraine.
The EU and the U.S. agree on an emergency economic support package for the (remaining) Ukraine.
The U.S. informs that the current leadership of NATO will be changed, and that NATO will go through a rigorous audit concerning its actions and policies.

Prevention of post-war collapse of Ukraine

The economy and society of Ukraine has become severely damaged. The war has eaten through whole age cohorts, while the infrastructure of Ukraine has taken a serious hit (which is worsening by the day). As a result, living standards will be low for an extended time and powerful weapons will be easily available for the inhabitants. If the Ukrainian economy and society would be allowed to collapse, Europe would see another wave of migration, with many of the refugees carrying deadly weapons. For this reason, both the U.S. but especially the EU needs to commit to economic support and rebuilding.

Most importantly, also for the peace process, the situation in post-war Ukraine must be prevented from becoming chaotic (causing severe problems in the surrounding areas). The keys to this would be:

The US and the EU need to undertake food, shelter and healthcare provisions in any needed quantities immediately on conclusion of the hostilities. A foreign run police or a paramilitary force needs to be established to keep order and collect unregistered arms.
The US and the EU take responsibility for repairing and rebuilding Ukraine housing and infrastructure. During the peace negotiations plans should be drawn up on the timing and distribution of work. Russia naturally takes care of rebuilding the parts of Ukraine it annexed, but could take a part in the re-building of western Ukraine as a sign of good-will.
Ukraine itself needs to establish new, neutral/accepted authorities as well as routines and policies for the new government. General elections need to be held as soon as possible.
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank need to agree on long-term structural loans and restructuring of the current debt load of the federal government of Ukraine.

Conclusions

Conflict in Ukraine has been very destructive to Ukraine, but also to the European security structure. European leaders should have been able to stop the escalation already in 2013 and 2014, but they failed. The ‘void’ of European leadership became epitomized in the peace negotiations during the March and April 2022 torpedoed, reportedly, by the U.S. and U.K. War should have ended during the Spring of 2022, but it was let to continue and even escalate on reasons mostly unclear. Due to the failures of our leaders, we are at the brink of yet another continental war.

Peace in Ukraine and strengthening the European security structure can be achieved without pushing our continent into a cycle a re-armament, which has always presided a continental war. Realities on the ground need to be acknowledged alongside meeting the demands of Kremlin. Peace in Ukraine will not be easy, but we need it now more than ever.

* * *

Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/15/2024 - 07:00

Online Shopping: Charting The Holiday Surge

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 03:45:00 +0000

Online Shopping: Charting The Holiday Surge

In the fourth quarter of 2023, online shopping was a record-breaking 17% of all retail sales. Put another way, one out of every six dollars was spent online.

This graphic from Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross, in partnership with BGO, highlights the spike in ecommerce that occurs every year during the holiday season.

The Growing Popularity of Online Shopping

Over the last 15 years, the percentage of money consumers are spending online has more than tripled. The most online shopping always occurs in the fourth quarter due to Black Friday and holiday spending.

In the table below, we show online shopping as a percentage of total retail sales over time.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data accessed November 19, 2024.

With people stretched for time during the busy holiday season, many opt for quick online orders and home deliveries.

Beyond convenience, deals also draw people to their screens. For instance, Amazon’s October Prime Day and Cyber Monday both offer deals catered to online shoppers. In 2024, Cyber Monday drew over 64 million U.S. shoppers—nearly three times higher than the 23 million people who shopped in stores.

To handle the increase in online shopping orders, U.S. retailers will need to have a plan for storing their products and transporting them to customers.

The Logistics of Online Orders

Free and fast shipping are top priorities for online shoppers. Nearly 40% would abandon a retailer with high shipping costs, while 32% would stop buying because of late deliveries. These high expectations, and the increase in ecommerce, is driving demand for real estate that can process online orders.

BGO’s industrial warehouse and logistics properties are strategically located to help reduce expenses and transport goods to consumers more quickly. During the busy holiday period, these properties run at full efficiency to meet the surging demand.

Learn what’s moving markets in BGO’s The Chief Economist newsletter.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 22:45

Possible Foreign Policy Shifts In The New Administration

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 03:10:00 +0000

Possible Foreign Policy Shifts In The New Administration

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

With an incoming administration that will be installed on Jan. 20, 2025, will there be shifts in America’s foreign policies for the next four years that could affect the security of California and the other states?

It’s likely that some of the positions in the Biden administration will be maintained, but President-elect Donald Trump’s stamp on future policies could reflect stances taken during his first term. How will Trump, 47th president, compare with Trump, 45th president?

Trump, similar to Teddy Roosevelt, will likely often speak softly and carry a big stick. He will get along with our adversaries to gain leverage but will also inform authoritarian leaders in no uncertain terms that aggressions against America and its global partners will not stand.

During Trump’s first term, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia were limited to routine saber-rattling on the world stage. However, during President Joe Biden’s tenure, China’s bullying became more overt, Iran greenlighted the invasion of Israel, Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time, and North Korea launched more test missiles than ever and sent troops to Ukraine. These brazen activities will be difficult to halt, but Trump has indicated he will strive to mitigate them.

First, Trump will enhance border security to a much greater degree than the prior administration. He might have to cut off funding to sanctuary cities and states that oppose his deportation plan for criminals. In addition, it shouldn’t take the threat of tariffs against Canada and Mexico for those two nations to carry out the legwork to secure their sides of the border with the United States.

Trump will also likely persuade Panama to shutter the Darien Gap, a lawless migration hub. The Department of Homeland Security also urgently needs more Border Patrol agents, and the border wall with Mexico must be completed to maintain an orderly immigration process. Moreover, additional immigration judges will be required to expedite the process of immigration for genuine asylum cases and legal immigration cases.

Border security is a critical part of the overall national security strategy in order to vet immigrants and prevent criminal gangs and terrorists from entering the country. Many of these criminals are involved in arms, drugs, and human trafficking that are devastating to vulnerable minors, while our social services are stretched to the breaking point.

Unlawful immigrants who seek to game the system and take advantage of tax-funded social services should be turned back at the border. If an immigrant breaks the initial law of entering the country illegally, what is to stop them from circumventing other laws in an attempt to take shortcuts to permanent residency?

Next, Trump will continue to support Israel and Ukraine in their fight against tyranny to a certain extent, but he will also work to bring the hostile parties together to negotiate for cease-fires or a cessation of conflict. Moscow promised Kyiv in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that if Ukraine’s nuclear weapons were turned over to Russia, there would be no invasion. Ukraine complied, but Vladimir Putin broke the pact and invaded twice. That is why any treaties with Russia must be assessed with a trust-but-verify posture.

Trump will likely sign off on greater sanctions against Iranian and Russian assets in order to wind down the wars and curtail the flow of weapons to nefarious actors within reach of the combat zones. He will concur with Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas must never again govern in the Gaza Strip. Trump might also apply leverage to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to persuade him to withdraw his troops from the Russian battle-space adjacent to Ukraine.

Third, America’s national security could be enhanced if Trump shores up our freedom-loving global partners and also reaches out to developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

This cultural and commercial outreach can provide a counterweight to China’s malign activities in those continents. The European Union could also contribute to Europe’s’ security and stability abroad.

Fourth, Trump will likely adopt foreign policy that utilizes both the carrot and stick of diplomacy and military power.

Building a strong military force can actually mitigate the need to apply armed power as it projects peace through strength, according to President Ronald Reagan. It is highly critical that our armed forces stay ahead of the curve vis a vis our adversaries in the spheres of training and weapons platforms.

Fifth, hopefully Trump will allow Congress to appropriate adequate resources to the armed forces in order to maintain capability, capacity, and readiness to deter China’s potential blockade or invasion of Taiwan. It would take an entire book to catalog the atrocities carried out by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on a daily basis as it conducts unrestricted warfare against its own people and the West. Trump ought to approach the CCP and its predatory practices from the perspective of cold, hard reality.

Any trade with China should involve reciprocity, and if China doubles down on trade barriers, tariffs can be imposed. If Beijing wants to enter foreign markets, buy land, and set up shop, then it should allow Western companies to do the same in China. Moreover, the United States ought to decouple from any Chinese goods or services that adversely affect national security.

Finally, Trump will pursue an America First agenda in foreign policy by using both arm-twisting and horse-trading. He will place the interests of the U.S. above the demands of other nations in order to advance free markets, liberty, peace, and an accepted rules-based order.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 22:10

American Citizen Flown Out Of Syria By US Military

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 02:35:00 +0000

American Citizen Flown Out Of Syria By US Military

An American man has been flown out of Syria by the US military from an undisclosed location, after he was handed over by Syria's new governing authorities, HTS.

The US citizen has been identified as Travis Timmerman, who had been held in a Syrian prison since his arrest under the Assad government seven months ago. Several international reports said he had walked into Syria from Lebanon, presumably with no visa and not utilizing a customs or proper border checkpoint.

Via NBC

AP and Reuters confirmed Friday Timmerman was handed over to "the American side" and flown out of Syria. Timmerman is from Missouri, but was last seen in Hungary but his family hadn't heard from him since.

He said he had entered Syria on a spiritual "pilgrimage" and it appears his arrest resulted from entering Syria by illegal means and without an issued visa. Americans and Westerners have frequently traveled in Syria, even over the last few years, but they have gotten valid visas typically from the Syrian Embassy in Beirut, or at the border of entry.

He has described in Western media interviews that he was treated well in prison, and he is in good health. BBC describes of the past days:

On Monday, a day after rebels took control of Damascus and toppled Assad, Mr Timmerman said two men armed with a hammer broke open his prison door. It was "busted down, it woke me up", he said.

"I thought the guards were still there, so I thought the warfare could have been more active than it ended up being… Once we got out, there was no resistance, there was no real fighting."

The 30-year-old said he left prison with a large group of people and had been attempting to make his way to Jordan.

Since Assad's fall people have clamored to break open prison doors and set all prisoners free. Currently there's a search for American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria in 2012 after embedding with anti-Assad militants.

Exclusive: The American citizen found near the Syrian capital Damascus is named Travis Timmerman, and is not missing US journalist Austin Tice. He tells Al Arabiya he was in prison for 7 months but was treated well. pic.twitter.com/UKLimmKGuh
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) December 12, 2024

Despite his being in an area with al-Qaeda jihadists and armed gangs at the time, the US government has always blamed the Assad side for his disappearance, which Damascus always vehemently denied. The search across the country is still on for any clues of what might have happened to him.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 21:35

ADHD Or Something Else? One In 4 Adults Are Self-Diagnosing

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 02:00:00 +0000

ADHD Or Something Else? One In 4 Adults Are Self-Diagnosing

Authored by Amy Denny via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Imagine being the school band director and waking up at 1 a.m. on the day of a big parade to realize that you never booked the school bus to transport your students.

PeopleImages.com - Yuri A/Shutterstock

For Lisa Burden, this experience was more than a nightmare. It was a wake-up call to her own shortcomings. While exceptionally bright and creative, she also had to contend with another side of herself. She’d struggled since childhood with challenges like being able to keep track of things and being told she talked too much.

“There were responsibilities that I would just forget to do. It wasn’t like I didn’t want to do them,” she told The Epoch Times. “I came to a point when I had to admit I could not keep it all in my head. I’ll have a thought, and then I don’t know when I’ll have that thought again.”

While attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a condition that can undermine a person’s ability to navigate our modern age, in some ways, it is more helpful to think of it as a mismatch of mental abilities. ADHD involves symptoms of inattentiveness, impulsiveness, and hyperactivity, among others.

People with ADHD have brains that think differently in a world that’s become more sedentary and rigid. Experts say seeing ADHD through a new lens can help adults strengthen their thinking, improve their relationships, and accentuate their strengths.

Maybe It Is ADHD

About 15.5 million—or 6 percent—of American adults have been diagnosed with ADHD. About half were diagnosed as adults, with one-third of those diagnosed receiving treatment, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

To be diagnosed with ADHD as a child, one needs to have six symptoms involving inattentiveness, hyperactivity, or impulsivity. An adult diagnosis requires five.

Those symptoms include the following:

Trouble paying attention or being easily distracted
Being disorganized
Procrastinating
Inability to plan or organize
Difficulty recalling daily tasks
Losing things frequently
Being extremely talkative or frequently interrupting
Trouble multitasking or focusing on larger projects
Finding it hard to follow instructions or finish projects
Inability to sit still for lengthy periods
Fidgeting
The need to be constantly moving
Prioritizing immediate rewards over future rewards

There are a few other criteria, too, including symptoms that have been around since before age 12, with clear evidence that they are severe, frequent, and persistent enough to cause problems in at least two areas of life, such as at work, school, church, or home.

Finally, hormonal and mental disorders, such as depression, anxiety, or a psychotic disorder, must be ruled out. However, there is no definitive diagnostic tool, such as bloodwork or brain scans, for ADHD.

Beyond Stereotypes

Experts understand ADHD better than they did two decades ago. The stigma is lifting, and awareness is growing, according to Marcy M. Caldwell, a licensed clinical psychologist who specializes in the treatment and assessment of adult ADHD.

She told The Epoch Times that social media has given voice to people who are describing their experiences with ADHD and raising it as a possibility for many people who might not have considered it previously.

For a number of years, ADHD was stereotypically considered a disorder associated with young boys. That, particularly, left a lot of girls undiagnosed in childhood who went on to be diagnosed as adults.

However, professionals are beginning to better understand that symptoms can vary depending on race, sex, and age, Caldwell said. They are also noting that children often don’t outgrow ADHD, as was previously believed in most cases. Rather, she said symptoms relapse and remit throughout life depending on other circumstances.

“In that waxing and waning, the symptoms can come up again around major life events,” Caldwell said. “In normal life, the major events come up at different times. But in 2020, we were all hit with a major life event, so there was a big upsurge in diagnosis that happened after COVID as everyone was adjusting to very new circumstances.”

Pillars of Brain Health

Caldwell described the ADHD brain as working as an off-on light switch, whereas a neurotypical brain can adjust lighting with a dimmer switch. That is, for those with ADHD, the light switch is either on—hyperfocusing, usually with enjoyable tasks—or off for tasks that aren’t as pleasurable.

It takes far more energy, she said, for someone with ADHD to use their brain like a dimmer switch, though it can be done. That energy can come from the following foundational health pillars:

Sleep
Exercise
Nutrition
Medication
Meditation
Connection

“Those are six really hard things, and there’s a lot involved with them. You don’t have to do all of them,” she said.

However, on a day when you don’t get much sleep, you can try one of the others to boost your brain energy, typically exercise, according to Caldwell.

IQ Biologix supplements and a ketogenic diet will also go a long way...

Movement as Fuel

Any exercise is great for boosting energy, though specific exercises may be more tolerable to different brain states, said Caldwell. Rowing, running, and walking are helpful for those who are inattentive. Meanwhile, sports like soccer or karate—during which you must respond to a constantly changing environment—are good for those struggling with hyperactivity and impulsivity.

The problem, Caldwell added, is that most people try to change how their brains work so they can function in the world rather than changing the world for how their brains work. That means if you need to move more, as many with ADHD do, consider using a standing or treadmill desk, take frequent breaks, and exercise before work to build up energy stores.

“A lot of people start out with more ability to regulate their tasks and attention, and as the day goes on, they have less capacity to do that,” she said. “Save things that aren’t as taxing for later in the day.”

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 21:00

Assad's Fall Is A Major Blow To Russia

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 01:15:00 +0000

Assad's Fall Is A Major Blow To Russia

Authored by Andrew Latham via RealClearWorld,

Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria was a bold assertion of its great power ambitions, rescuing Bashar al-Assad's regime and projecting influence in the Middle East. However, recent rebel advances and Assad’s sudden deposal threaten to isolate Russia’s Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility, undermining both the practical and symbolic foundations of Moscow’s global power status.

The fall of Assad promises to be a major blow to Russia, which is already bogged down in Ukraine. Its ramifications are likely to be felt across Moscow’s foreign policy, which could soon face some stark and unenviable choices.

The Russian presence in Syria is central to the Kremlin’s broader strategy of force projection. Its Mediterranean bases allow Moscow to sustain military operations in the Levant, North Africa, and beyond, countering U.S. influence. With the key city of Homs having fallen to the rebels, supply routes to Khmeimim and Tartus have been severed, forcing reliance on vulnerable air and sea routes. This will weaken Russia’s operational readiness and its ability to influence events in neighboring theaters, including Africa.

Khmeimim also serves as a logistical hub for Russian private military contractors (PMCs) like the Wagner Group, active in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. These contractors are central to Moscow’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa, providing security and securing lucrative economic deals. With Khmeimim isolated, sustaining these operations would become costly and inefficient, reducing Moscow’s ability to achieve its geopolitical objectives on the continent.

The isolation of Khmeimim and Tartus will severely constrain Russia’s ability to sustain military operations in Syria and beyond, undermining its ability to conduct airstrikes, reconnaissance, and rapid-response missions. PMCs, reliant on robust logistics, will face disruptions, emboldening opposition forces and exposing the fragility of Russia’s African partnerships. These setbacks will ripple through Moscow’s strategic calculations, undercutting its influence and economic goals.

The symbolic consequences of a rebel victory will be even more damaging. Moscow has portrayed its intervention in Syria as a demonstration of its reliability as an ally and its ability to uphold the sovereignty of client states. The loss in Syria will puncture this narrative, exposing the limits of Russian power and credibility. Regional actors, including Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states, will recalibrate their perceptions of Moscow’s influence, while African partners might pivot toward more reliable alternatives such as China or the West.

Domestically, the repercussions of a diminished role in Syria will be significant. President Vladimir Putin has marketed the Syrian intervention as a triumph of Russian statecraft, portraying it as a cornerstone of Russia’s resurgence on the global stage. While critics of Russia’s foreign interventions have questioned their costs for years, the fall of Assad could amplify these doubts in ways the prolonged conflict in Ukraine has not. Syria's collapse would symbolize a failure of Russia's ability to safeguard allied regimes, striking at the narrative of strategic competence that Putin has worked to project. Public perceptions of Russian strength, carefully curated through state-controlled media, could falter, creating broader political vulnerabilities. Moreover, Syria has served as a testing ground for Russian weapons systems, and reduced visibility in the region would weaken their appeal to buyers, further diminishing Russia’s geopolitical leverage and economic gains from arms exports. The rebel victory in Syria will resonate globally. For the United States and its allies, it will validate strategies to contain Russian influence and embolden further countermeasures. NATO could leverage Russia’s difficulties to underscore the limitations of its global reach, while China might accelerate efforts to dominate regions like Central Asia and Africa, further sidelining Moscow in regions where it traditionally competes.

Russia now faces a stark choice: escalate its military commitment to protect its strategic interests, such as its naval facility in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim, or accept a diminished role in the region. Escalation would aim to preserve these assets and reassert influence but risks clashes with other regional powers and would strain resources already stretched by commitments in Ukraine and Africa. Retrenchment, however, would signal a devastating blow to Russia's credibility as a reliable guarantor of allied regimes worldwide, sending a clear message to its partners in Africa, the Middle East, and beyond that Moscow cannot be counted on to defend its allies in times of crisis. This erosion of trust would undermine Russia’s broader global strategy and invite further challenges to its influence elsewhere.

Already there is evidence Russian warships have left Tartus, raising questions about Russia’s commitment to its Syrian bases. As Russia navigates this crisis, it must confront the limits of its resources and the fragility of its aspirations. Great power status requires not just military might but strategic resilience. The outcome of the Syrian conflict will shape the future of Russia’s role in the evolving international order. For Moscow, the stakes could not be higher.

Andrew Latham is Professor of Political Science at Macalester College and a Non-Resident Fellow at Defense Priorities.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 20:15

Video Games Have Become Rife With DEI And Some Fans Aren’t Buying It

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 00:50:00 +0000

Video Games Have Become Rife With DEI And Some Fans Aren’t Buying It

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

BioWare, developer of the wildly popular Mass Effect and Dragon Age video game series, is at the center of a new battle.

Following the failed launch of two costly triple-A titles, the studio was banking on a win. Its latest offering is the fourth title in the Dragon Age series; the last was released 10 years ago.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Initial reactions to trailers for Dragon Age: The Veilguard were decidedly negative. Longtime fans of the series criticized the softer, stylized art of the new game, comparing it to a Disney-Pixar movie.

But after BioWare invited a group of streamers and critics to a private, hands-on demo of the game, hope was rekindled. Those who had experienced Veilguard firsthand were generally positive, and encouraged fans of the series to wait for the full release.

Days before its release, clips of Veilguard were leaked, revealing that the game was rife with transgender ideology and messaging based on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).

One scene showed a character doing pushups as penance for forgetting to use “they/them” pronouns, and then lecturing about how a simple apology was not enough for the crime of “misgendering.”

Another scene, in a high fantasy setting with dragons and elves, showed a character revealing to her parents that she identified as nonbinary.

The game’s character customization system does not allow for the creation of curvy female characters but it does allow players to add mastectomy scars.

Laura Kate Dale, “queer representation critic and consultant” and author of “Gender Euphoria,” posted on social media platform X about having worked on the project.

Corinne Busche, Veilguard’s game director, is also transgender. Busche told co-workers that the goal for the Dragon Age team at BioWare is to use games to create a safe space for the LGBT community.

“It’s such a rare thing for marginalized communities to have representation where we feel proud and powerful in how we are depicted. It’s so deeply meaningful for so many,” Busche said in a developer interview on BioWare’s website.

While it is true that previous Dragon Age titles featured LGBT characters—and allowed players to romance same sex characters in-game—Veilguard’s approach seems to have struck a different chord this time.

Visitors play the Dragon Age video game by American video game company, Electronic Arts, during a preview of the Paris Games Week on Oct. 22, 2024. Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

Critics’ Reviews

While some fans were still scratching their heads at the leaked clips, early critic reviews for Veilguard were mostly positive.

The game received the thumbs-up from Eurogamer, Game Rant, and GamingBible—all of whom awarded it a perfect 100 out of 100. Even Finger Guns, which gave it a lower-end score of 60, called it “a solid, albeit, unspectacular RPG experience.”

IGN—notorious for giving scores of seven—gave Veilguard a nine out of 10. [ZH: lol]

That review was received differently when it was revealed the critic identifies as transgender; IGN released an alternate, less positive review shortly thereafter.

Some critics were more tepid in their response.

Games journalist Skillup gave the game a “cannot recommend” evaluation. He didn’t mention the progressive content and instead referred to the game’s “silly and childish” tone, and lack of narrative subtlety.

“This game cannot surface any ideas without just saying them aloud,” he said.

“Every interaction sounds like HR is in the room.”

He—and others—also criticized the “hollow and repetitive” gameplay loop. “Zero variety in mission design,” he noted. He said he eventually lowered the game’s difficulty settings, just so he could rush through it more quickly.

The disparity between professional critic reviews and those by consumers is stark: Metacritic shows the game’s audience score is 3.8 out of 10 for Playstation users; the score for PC users is 2.5.

Video game enthusiasts play the latest released games at the Eurogamer Expo in London on Sept. 26, 2013. Oli Scarff/Getty Images

Costly Business

Triple-A game development is a risky, expensive business. Games can cost hundreds of millions and take years to develop; one failure may drive a studio out of business.

Official sales numbers for Veilguard have not been released—a common practice unless a game does very well—but speculation abounds. It is unlikely the real numbers will be known before EA’s earnings call in February

One way of gauging sales is to look at the number of concurrent players on STEAM, the world’s largest digital PC video game marketplace. Veilguard reached a maximum of just over 89,000 players on Nov. 3.

By comparison, Farming Simulator 25 peaked at more than 135,000 concurrent players.

Veilguard is reported to have sold more than a million copies—not a great result for a triple-A title that may have cost between $80 million and $200 million to develop.

By contrast, Game Science’s recent release Black Myth: Wukong sold 18 million copies within its first two weeks.

And while Veilguard was given positive reviews by gaming media, Wukong’s development team was accused of sexism, fat-shaming, and homophobia just ahead of the release.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 19:50

Saudi 2034 Selection Raises Eyebrows As Global Footprint Of FIFA World Cup Grows

Tyler Durden — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 00:15:00 +0000

Saudi 2034 Selection Raises Eyebrows As Global Footprint Of FIFA World Cup Grows

As expected, FIFA confirmed this week that Spain, Portugal and Morocco will host the 2030 World Cup.

In addition, in view of the centenary of the first World Cup, held in Uruguay in 1930, there will also be a ceremony in the country's capital Montevideo, as well as three opening matches being played in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay.

The 2030 World Cup will therefore have an unprecedented format, as it will be held in six countries and on three continents (Africa, Europe and South America). Until now, the World Cup has never been held in more than two countries or on different continents. In 2002, South Korea and Japan held it jointly, while in 2026 it will be held in the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Despite FIFA president Gianni Infantino hailing how "In a divided world, FIFA and football are coming together," the plans have come in for some initial harsh criticism - mainly for the effect the geographical spread will have on the tournament's carbon footprint.

Concerns have also been raised that, due to a change in hemispheres, some teams will end up having to play the competition in two different meteorological seasons.

As Statista's Felix Richter shows in the infographic below, since 1930, the FIFA Men's World Cup has been held every four years, with only two interruptions caused by the Second World War, in 1942 and 1946.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The 2034 World Cup will be hosted by Saudi Arabia, a decision that drew its fair share of criticism as well.

By making sure that only federations from Asia and Oceania could bid for the 2034 World Cup and setting a deadline too tight to meet for other applicants, FIFA effectively fast-tracked Saudi Arabia’s hosting ambitions, shortly before announcing a multi-year global partnership with Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant.

In its official “Bid Evaluation Report”, FIFA largely swatted human rights concerns aside, giving the Saudi bid an overall score of 4.2 out of 5 – the highest score ever awarded.

According to the report, the inclusion of human rights within the criteria for evaluating bids is “about making decisions based on evidence of how effectively bidders intend to address human rights risks connected with a tournament. It is not about peremptorily excluding countries based on their general human rights context”.

Reacting to the report, Steve Cockburn, Amnesty International’s Head of Labour Rights and Sport, said:

“As expected, FIFA’s evaluation of Saudi Arabia’s World Cup bid is an astonishing whitewash of the country’s atrocious human rights record. There are no meaningful commitments that will prevent workers from being exploited, residents from being evicted or activists from being arrested.”

As Statista's chart shows, Saudi Arabia’s “general human rights context” is in fact sub-optimal, as the country routinely ranks near the bottom of international indices on governance and human rights.

You will find more infographics at Statista

So, evidently, the same sport that pride-fully pushes a strong LGBTQ+ agenda seems more than willing to put all that aside when it comes to money, giving World Cups to the explicitly homophobic sharia law theo-monarchy of Saudi Arabia.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 19:15

'Gladiator II' Is A MAGA Metaphor

Tyler Durden — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 23:40:00 +0000

'Gladiator II' Is A MAGA Metaphor

Authored by Richard Porter via RealClearPolitics,

Hollywood sequels rarely achieve the magic of the original, but “Gladiator II” comes close. Except for the familiar populist framework of a lone man taking on “the system” against all odds, the echoes to the original are sufficiently distant that the new movie feels fresh and original.

Plus, it turns out that Ridley Scott’s blockbuster is a timely, if unwitting, metaphor for Donald Trump’s own sequel, which is off to a better start than his original. This time he won the popular vote and his transition is smoother, most recently featuring Trump’s triumphant trip to Paris, Kash Patel’s appointment to lead the FBI, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s obeisant visit to Mar-a-Lago.

This is what Trump’s “revenge” looks like. Compared to a Gladiator-inspired populist revolt, it’s both genteel and more satisfying: What red-blooded American viewer doesn’t enjoy seeing Trump arm-wrestling with Macron again and making a nanny-state bully like Trudeau heel, or seeing him appoint bold populists like Patel, Bobby Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard to lead, and turn upside down, politicized government agencies that sought to do him in?

Ancient Rome has always been both an inspiration and a cautionary tale for America’s leaders. George Washington modeled on Cincinnatus by relinquishing his military power to enhance civilian government, and he frequently quoted the Roman senator Cato, who sacrificed his life in support of the Roman Republic. The Founders chose an eagle as our national symbol – the symbol of the Roman god Jupiter used to represent Roman power. Both John Adams and his son John Quincy Adams idolized the Roman orator Cicero. More ominously, Abraham Lincoln’s stage-actor assassin John Wilkes Booth played the role of Mark Antony in an 1864 New York City performance of “Julius Caesar,” with his brother Edwin playing Brutus. And as he leapt from the president’s box in Ford’s Theater, Booth shouted “Sic semper tyrannis,” the words attributed to Brutus as he killed Ceasar.

Over the course of our nation’s history, comparisons between the United States and ancient Rome have focused on the fall of the latter as a caution for the former. The comparisons range from financial mismanagement to far-flung and over-extended military commitments.

So, Roman lessons for the U.S. are nothing new. Ridley Scott, who produced and directed “Gladiator II,” drew parallels between his movie and contemporary American politics in an interview with the Hollywood Reporter, but – this is fun! – he’s spectacularly wrong about both.

Scott told the Hollywood Reporter that he modeled the heavy in Gladiator II – a creepy, Machiavellian opportunist whom Denzel Washington brings to life – on Donald Trump. “He evolved into a very rich merchant selling shit to the Roman armies – food, oil, wine, cloth, weapons, everything,” Scott said. “He maybe had a million men spread around Europe. So he was a billionaire at the time, so why wouldn’t he [have ambitions toward the throne]? ‘Why not me?’ He’s also a gangster – very close to Trump. A clever gangster. He creates chaos and from chaos he can evolve.”

Is anyone surprised that a Hollywood liberal misses the point about Trump in his own movie? Ridley Scott has it precisely backwards: The Trump parallel is not the scheming creature of the Roman political swamp, but the hero, a prince who would not bow to those who sought to crush and kill him. It’s Trump’s rivals, scheming, duplicitous power seekers seeking to whip up hate, who are whispering in the ear of a non-compos mentis leader.

And what ultimately drove the young prince to become the populist leader of Rome? As he approaches the inevitable climatic death match, the Gladiator himself reprises the core idea from the first film: “The dream that was Rome.” It’s a fragile dream of a Republic that will only be achieved by taking back power from corrupt, weak leaders and scheming politicians.

The gladiator’s speech about Rome applies to contemporary America. It’s about recapturing the American Dream and refreshing government of, by, and for the forgotten people – instead of the powerful – the very ideas that bring cheers to a Trump rally.

With that in mind, consider the words ascribed to Marcus Aurelius – words that the film’s hero and villain both quote: “The best revenge is to be unlike him who performed the injury” or “The best revenge is not to be like your enemy.”

Trump’s many enemies, the folks whipping up fear that he will use government power to go after political enemies as the Democrats did to him, misunderstand MAGA “revenge,” as Trump made clear again during his long Sunday interview with Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press.” Government institutions that have been infused with politics and corrupted away from their purpose are not reformed by changing the politics, but by purging the politics.

Trump’s revenge is to be different, to empower allies to reveal and reform corruption, and to reduce the power of government over the people instead of expanding it.

Nothing will crush his haters more than being a great president. “I’m really looking to make our country successful,” Trump told Kristen Welker. “I’m not looking to go back into the past. I’m looking to make our country successful. Retribution will be through success. If we can make our success â?? this country successful, that would be my greatest, that would be such a great achievement. Bring it back.”

Trump’s 2024 victory against all the forces arrayed against him is just the opening act of his sequel. Now the fun really begins. Someday, Hollywood will understand what most Americans already see: Donald Trump is a gladiator for the dream that is America.

Richard Porter is a lawyer in Chicago and a former policy advisor to President George H.W. Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 18:40

Trump Says He'll Kill Daylight Saving Time, But Maybe He Really Wants It To Be Permanent

Tyler Durden — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 23:05:00 +0000

Trump Says He'll Kill Daylight Saving Time, But Maybe He Really Wants It To Be Permanent

President-elect Trump on Friday said he and fellow Republicans would make a full effort to liberate Americans from daylight saving time and its twice-yearly clock adjustments -- which take a human toll that ranges from annoyance to death.

"The Republican Party will use its best efforts to eliminate Daylight Saving Time, which has a small but strong constituency, but shouldn’t! Daylight Saving Time is inconvenient, and very costly to our Nation," wrote Trump in posts to his own TruthSocial platform as well as X.

While his statement was welcome news to many people across the political spectrum, it prompted immediate confusion about what exactly he was proposing. There are two approaches to ending those aggravating clock adjustments on the second Sunday in March and first Sunday in November:

Eliminating daylight saving time, which would mean year-round "standard time"
Making daylight saving time permanent

Many people who detest the changing of the clocks casually call for "doing away with daylight saving time," not appreciating that, taken literally, it would mean their summers would have earlier sunrises and sunsets. It's not clear if Trump unintentionally fell into using that language, or if he really wants to see permanent standard time -- which is already the state of affairs in Arizona and Hawaii.

Correct vibes but I think we actually want PERMANENT daylight savings, right?

Or has the vampire lobby won https://t.co/VKqq8KVaCF
— Christian Keil (@pronounced_kyle) December 13, 2024

Like so many of the nation's ills, daylight saving time sprang from the warfare state: It was first introduced during World War I with the goal of conserving fuel. Woodrow Wilson's interventionist idiocy unjustly killed 115,516 American service members, and daylight saving time keeps on taking lives on the home front. Researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder found that around 30 traffic-accident fatalities a year may result from the disruption in sleep rhythms, while another study found a 3% daily spike in total mortality in the week after the spring clock adjustment.

Permanent daylight saving time is appealing to people who want to enjoy more daylight when they leave work. It also has the support of retailers, restaurants, recreation leagues and other organizations that do better with more light at day's end. Criminals may oppose it: Research has found that dangerous crime increases 7% when daylight saving time ends each fall.

That's not to say permanent daylight saving time is a no-brainer. That option comes at the price of many more Americans in northern states waking up to darkness at 8am and even later during the winter months. “A lot of people prefer to have that daylight at the end of the day instead,” University of Pennsylvania clinical psychology professor Philip Gehrman told the New York Times. “But those mornings are going to get dark.” Those dark mornings are cited as a potential safety risk to children waiting at bus stops and walking to schools.

I’ll work with anyone to make DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME permanent. It’s time to stop changing our clocks for no reason at all. pic.twitter.com/LZeHhMhCfI
— Senator Patty Murray (@PattyMurray) December 13, 2024

Meanwhile, many sleep experts say permanent standard time is the healthier option for the human body. “If you get too much light too late in the evening, it disrupts your sleep, and we are essentially creating a months-long environment in which we are actually receiving light at a time that is later in the day than is optimal for our health,” public health professor Dr. Adam Spira of Johns Hopkins told CNN.

A 2021 AP-NORC poll found that only 25% of Americans want to keep flipping the clocks back and forth, while 43% said they wanted standard time all year, and 32% said daylight saving time should be made permanent. It's likely many respondents would change their stances -- in both directions -- if they had a deeper understanding of each option's implications.

In November, Trump wing-men Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy -- who are heading up his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) -- both hinted that they'd like to see an end to the clock changes. Trump's son, Don Jr, immediately chimed in, saying, "Leave it daylight saving time always."

It’s inefficient & easy to change.
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) November 27, 2024

In 2022, a bill to make daylight saving time permanent passed the Senate via unanimous consent, but hit a brick wall in the House. That "Sunshine Protection Act" was introduced by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who's been nominated to serve as Trump's Secretary of State.

It's a topic many people are passionate about, which is why it's a shame Trump didn't throw it into this year's presidential election mix. In the wake of his announced opposition to the clock changes, social media lit up with people sharing their own views on the topic:

Standard time is normal — daylight saving is artificial.

The end. pic.twitter.com/vmOEZwpSpp
— Calvin╭ರ_⊙ (@TisMoreorLess) December 13, 2024

Me in the middle of December 2025 after Trump ends Daylight Saving Time pic.twitter.com/af1YzJ640H
— Trumps Good Ear (@TrumpsGoodEar24) December 13, 2024

Standard Time is actually good and making Daylight Saving Time year round is a bad idea https://t.co/vt5viSpjoU pic.twitter.com/3AsmCeMiHs
— Ian Miller (@ianmSC) December 13, 2024

If Donald Trump maintains Daylight Savings Time year round, he will be the greatest president ever.
— Natalie Jean Beisner (@NJBeisner) December 14, 2024

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 18:05

Peter Schiff Exclusive: This Economy Is "On Borrowed Time"

Tyler Durden — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 22:30:00 +0000

Peter Schiff Exclusive: This Economy Is "On Borrowed Time"

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I was happy to welcome my friend Peter Schiff back on to Fringe Finance this past week, where I was able to get his take on a couple of the items I wrote about on the blog last week - most importantly, whether or not he thinks markets will crash up (hyperinflation) or down (deflationary depression).

Schiff and I also talked about his perspectives on markets, government policies, and the future of Bitcoin and gold. I also asked Schiff about his miscalculations, primarily underestimating the length of time it would take for economic reckoning and on bitcoin.

Speaking from his residence in Puerto Rico, Schiff painted a dire picture of the U.S. economy, marked by excessive debt, misguided monetary policies, and misplaced optimism.

Schiff’s outlook on the markets remains grim. “The market is already very expensive,” he observed, highlighting that “the optimism factored in is misplaced.” He warned of an impending reckoning, exacerbated by years of deficit spending and inflationary policies: “We have a $36.2 trillion debt that’ll soon reach $40 trillion. This is unsustainable.”

"The market is already very expensive. It’s hard to see parabolic upside when optimism is misplaced. The markets are expecting good things to happen that aren’t going to happen." - Peter Schiff

On whether markets are set to “crash up or crash down,” Schiff remarked, “Higher inflation is baked in, but that’s not good for the dollar. The markets are wrong to think it is.” His skepticism extends to the Federal Reserve, which he accused of sacrificing long-term economic health for short-term stability: “The Fed is a one-trick pony. Its solution to every problem is to inflate, mask the problem, and hope it goes away.”

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Schiff remains an unwavering advocate for gold, dismissing Bitcoin as a speculative bubble. He criticized Bitcoin’s lack of utility, stating, “It’s not digital gold; it’s not digital anything.” Contrasting it with gold, Schiff argued, “Gold has intrinsic value and has been a store of wealth for millennia. Bitcoin has failed to be money for 15 years.”

Taking aim at Michael Saylor’s proposal for the U.S. government to sell its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin, Schiff called it “a horrible idea” and dismissed Saylor’s comments as “self-serving.” He continued, “Bitcoin is not a reserve asset; it’s a speculative tool that has concentrated risk.”

Schiff also lambasted the speculative frenzy surrounding Bitcoin ETFs and institutional purchases: “Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have cornered 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That’s a bubble waiting to burst.”

"Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have already cornered 8% of Bitcoin’s supply. That’s concentration risk in a speculative bubble,” Schiff said. “Michael Saylor’s proposal for the U.S. to sell its gold for Bitcoin is not just a bad idea—it’s delusional. It’s putting all your eggs in one highly speculative basket."

Schiff highlighted the worsening state of the U.S. economy: “People are working harder for less real income, drowning in debt, and paying 25% interest on credit cards. This is the reality behind the so-called recovery.” He lambasted the bipartisan reluctance to address deficits: “Trump promised to cut deficits but signed every debt-busting bill put on his desk. Nothing will change under his leadership.”

We also discussed:

Market outlook: Speculation on whether markets will experience an inflationary rise or deflationary crash
Federal Reserve policies: Predictions about the Fed’s actions concerning inflation and interest rates
Inflation expectations: Discussion about how inflation impacts the economy and the U.S. dollar
Government deficits: Criticism of rising budget and trade deficits under various administrations.
Trump’s economic policies: Evaluation of Trump's promises versus the reality of government spending and deficits
Impact of tax cuts: Debate over whether tax cuts would stimulate the economy or worsen the deficit
Military and welfare spending: Criticism of increases in military and welfare spending despite calls for fiscal restraint.
Gold and currency: The comparative value of gold versus the U.S. dollar and other assets.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency: Analysis of Bitcoin’s perceived value, speculative nature, and potential risks.
Comparative risk of assets: Comparison between speculative investment in Bitcoin and traditional markets.
Historical trends in gold ETFs: Analysis of gold's stability and its market dynamics versus Bitcoin.
Government intervention in Bitcoin: Concerns over potential government involvement in Bitcoin markets
Critique of modern monetary theory (MMT): Dismissal of MMT as a sustainable economic approach
Economic bubbles and malinvestment: Concerns over the allocation of capital into unproductive sectors
Debt servicing crisis: Warnings about rising interest payments on national debt
Future economic predictions: Forecasts of a potential dollar crisis or significant inflationary period

You can watch the entire hourlong interview here.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/14/2024 - 17:30