ZeroHedge News

Israeli Troops Deployed To Somaliland In Covert Mission

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:25:00 +0000

Israeli Troops Deployed To Somaliland In Covert Mission

Israel secretly deployed a small contingent of forces to Somaliland earlier this year following its recognition of the breakaway territory, a senior Somali government official revealed to Middle East Eye (MEE) on Monday.

"According to our intelligence reports, the Israeli military selected Israeli soldiers of African heritage, especially Ethiopians, so as not to draw attention to themselves and to blend in more easily with the local community," the senior Somali official stated.

via Reuters

The Somali official said that Israel had deployed a group of 50 soldiers to Somaliland shortly after the recognition and the resumption of the war on Iran in late February.

On June 17, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz admitted to years of clandestine, "under the radar" security operations with Somaliland.

During a high-level meeting in Tel Aviv with Somaliland’s visiting president, Israeli officials confirmed that Israel is now directly involved in training the breakaway region's military and police.

"For many years, we cooperated under the radar in a series of operations that will remain classified. Now we are determined to bring our security cooperation to new heights, for the benefit of both peoples and for the benefit of stability in the region," Katz said.

In early June, CNN reported that the breakaway republic of Somaliland had provided Israel with an additional military position on the Horn of Africa, allowing Israeli aircraft to "potentially stop" long-range flights to Iran.

Israel's Channel 12 reported on 2 May that a senior official in Somaliland said the territory is ready to cooperate with Israel to confront what it described as the "threat" from the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) to the highly strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The official said that any "disruption of maritime security" would push Somaliland to expand its relations with Israel, including to the level of a security alliance.

The official also noted that Somaliland currently cooperates with partners such as the US and the UAE, which maintain a presence in the territory’s Berbera Port, and said a similar partnership would be possible with Israel.

AA is probably not happy about this. Reminder that Abdul Malik al-Houthi recently said in a speech that they are monitoring developments on “Somali soil” and that they will mot hesitate to strike israeli bases. https://t.co/3hFw1vdnK5 pic.twitter.com/OEOy3Z2hYr
— barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) June 22, 2026

The UAE operates the Berbera Port, using it as a logistics hub to transfer arms and mercenaries to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is responsible for committing alleged genocide against non-Arab tribes in Sudan.

Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, and in December 2025, Israel became the first and only UN member state to recognize it as an independent and sovereign state. Israel later appointed Michael Lotem as its first ambassador to Hargeisa in April, drawing worldwide condemnation.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 23:25

Apollo Gates Private Credit Investors For 2nd Quarter As 17% Rush To The Exits

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:09:27 +0000

Apollo Gates Private Credit Investors For 2nd Quarter As 17% Rush To The Exits

It would appear that the private credit crisis has not, in fact, been contained.

With the software bounce now dead and buried...

Software bounce is over pic.twitter.com/wcKtRt3NaR
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 22, 2026

... amid growing fears that the next round of the SAASpocalypse will be far worse (just look at the spectacular implosion in Accenture stock), the private credit firms that had tons of Software exposure ("but muh cash flows") are once again in the market's crosshairs, and after first Cliffwater, then Blackrock gated investors as redemptions requests soared even more in Q2 compared to the already skyhigh levels in Q1, today it was the turn of Private Equity giant Apollo Global Management to join the club and again limiting withdrawal requests from its largest non-traded private credit fund for retail investors, as broader concerns about the asset class persist.

Apollo Debt Solutions, which has roughly $25 billion in assets, capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares on Monday after investors asked to redeem 16.8%, according to a shareholder letter first seen by Bloomberg. Redemption requests in Q2 were more than 5% higher than the 11.2% investors wanted to pull in the first quarter when they were gated for the first time.

As shown in the chart below, for those hoping that Q2 redemption requests would moderate, well... the trend is not your friend.

The fund, taking rare delight in glorious irony, reported that it has generated an 8.1% total net return since it was launched, which however does not appear to have impressed its shareholders who instead want their money and are capped at 5% of it.

As we reported previously, private credit icon Cliffwater faced requests to pull 17% of shares from its flagship fund, while the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, received about 13% earlier this month. Both funds enforced a 5% cap for their BDCs.

Apollo President Jim Zelter predicted - correctly - in May that redemptions from BDCs will continue for the next two quarters following a turbulent first quarter for the sector, and that such requests could even increase. Spoiler alert: when software stock puke again, and when BDCs write down their SAAS loans form par to their fair value of plus or minus 0, not only will the requests increase, there may come a day when there is a literal run on the private credit bank, with crowds of people gathering across various lobbies on Park Avenue demanding their money (good luck folks).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 23:09

Super El Nino: Famine Follows War?

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:00:00 +0000

Super El Nino: Famine Follows War?

Rory Green, TS Lombard's chief China economist, is the latest Wall Street strategist to warn of the mounting macro and food inflation risks that a super El Niño could release on certain regions of the world.

In a note titled "Super El Niño: Famine Follows War?" Green warns that war-related disruptions to energy and fertilizer markets, compounded by adverse weather conditions, could create a perfect storm for global food prices.

Green said, "In general, El Niño raises temperatures and significantly exacerbates both drought and heavy rainfall. For global macro, it is an inflationary shock via the food price channel – a shock that will likely be compounded by existing war-related high fertilizer costs."

He said within his coverage, "India is the most exposed to both growth and inflation risks, supporting our underweight Indian assets. Brazil and Mexico, too, will receive an inflation impulse."

In recent weeks, the Japanese Meteorological Agency became the first major weather body to formally declare the onset of a super El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

If that forecast is correct, adverse climatic disruption could persist for 2 or more years, raising the risk of drought, flooding, lower crop yields, and higher food prices across key agricultural regions.

Green noted that El Niño has typically been associated with "hotter and drier conditions in India, parts of South and Southeast Asia, and Central America. But at the same time, it brings higher rainfall to parts of southern South America, the United States and Central Asia."

Chart 1: GDP impact of past El Niño

Chart 2: CPI impact of past El Niño

El Niño Impact Watch:

If it proves "strong" or "very strong", the 2026 El Niño is likely to have a historically large impact on global food prices, given already elevated underlying inflation, existing supply-chain disruption and the current high cost of farm inputs. China, Korea and Taiwan are relatively well insulated from the shock. As are most DMs, with the exception of Australia, as the maps below and the charts above show. In our coverage, it is India and LatAm that are most exposed.

India Impact:

El Niño to hit prices, employment and potentially equities

India's Met Department recently warned that El Niño conditions will strengthen during the crucial monsoon season that accounts for ~75% of the annual rainfall the country receives. The Met Department (IMD) has forecast rainfall in the June-September monsoon to be 90% of the long-period average (LPA); if that projection bears out, India will face its worst monsoon since 2015. That year, the IMD had initially predicted below normal rainfall of 93% of the LPA, but the actual rainfall recorded was 86%, leading to drought-like conditions across many parts of India. Even though it is early days yet in this year's season with the rains just about setting in over south peninsular India, indications are that the monsoon is off to a weak start. Rainfall in the first 15 days of June has already been far below normal, as Chart 1 below shows, and the progress of the monsoon across the subcontinent has stalled.

A weak monsoon will exacerbate headwinds to growth that India's heavily energy import- dependent economy has been facing due to the surge in global oil prices. Damage to the summer-sown crop output is a risk to agricultural incomes and rural demand, as well as a potential inflation trigger. Rising food and fuel costs pushed headline CPI higher to 3.9% yoy in May, up from 3.5% yoy in April; May’s food price inflation rose at a faster pace to 4.8% yoy. We expect high commodity prices to spill over into broader inflation, and for headline CPI to breach the upper threshold of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6% flexible target by 3Q/FY27. At its early June policy, the RBI revised up its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.1% vs 4.6% previously, cautioning against upside risks to its projection. It cited further downside risks to its GDP growth forecast for FY27 that is cut to 6.6% (vs 6.9% previously) owing to supply shocks from both energy and weather-related factors.

The government has been taking proactive measures to combat the El Niño impact, including increasing stocks of rice and wheat in state-run warehouses. How the El Niño impacts the monsoon will be clearer by end-July, when the IMD issues its updated monsoon forecast. July is the key month for crop sowing as the rains typically cover the entire country by the start of the month. Last week, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said almost 200 districts (a quarter of India's total) are "most vulnerable" to the impact of El Niño. The monsoon season's impact on crops is determined not just by the quantity of rainfall but also its geographical distribution. The accumulation of water in reservoirs – critical for the winter-sown crop – is also important to track: as of early June, the level was a little lower vs a year ago but higher vs the LPA.

For now, the markets are rebounding after tensions in the Middle East eased, but the Indian economy's resilience will be tested again soon if the monsoon fails: since 1951, 12 of 17 El Niño years have witnessed deficient rains. Foreigners remain net sellers in the equity market, although tax exemptions announced for overseas bond investors are pulling flows into local debt. Equities have been supported by local investors, but returns have been capped as momentum of domestic flows has been flagging recently

Brazil Impact

El Niño could weigh on power, food prices

A 'Super El Niño' could push up inflation, but Brazil is more prepared for extreme weather than in the past. As a country that spans across the South American continent, El Niño has an uneven impact on regional weather patterns. In southern Brazil, overall precipitation, the number of heavy downpours and the severity of storms tends to increase, particularly in the spring. Northern Brazil, including parts of the Amazon basin, tend to have drier weather, as does the country's northeast. While parts of the country's populous southeastern region see a limited impact, key states – including Minas Gerais, tend to be drier than normal. Across the countries, average temperatures tend to rise, and the number of heatwaves tends to increase. These factors, coupled with the greater frequency of extreme weather already effecting the country because of climate change, mean that Brazil runs an even greater risk of severe events this year, similar to the record floods in Rio Grande do Sul state in 2024.

The El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook. Although we do not expect the El Niño to play a decisive role in the direction of the economy in H1/26, it could exacerbate existing issues in the economy, including inflation. Electricity prices, which typically tick up during the dry season (April to October) could rise even more if dry weather has a significant impact on hydroelectric reservoir levels in south-central Brazil, which holds the lion's share of the country's generation capacity. This would force the National Systems Operator (ONS) to continue to maximize the use of high-cost thermoelectric plants to offset the reduction in hydroelectric generation. This would mean that electricity costs would increase in the coming months through the so-called tariff flag systems, which is imposed to cover the costs of thermoelectric generation. Likewise, energy consumption – and spot market prices – tends to increase during heatwaves, as more households use air conditioning. The positive news is that Brazil is entering the dry season, Brazil's hydroelectric reservoirs are in a slightly more comfortable situation than in previous El Niño years, which could limit the impact of the weather phenomenon on power prices.

The El Niño could have an impact on food prices, but not in the short term. When temperatures exceed 40°C for prolonged periods, it generally takes three to four months for the hot, dry conditions to affect fruit and vegetable harvests. The effect on grain and oilseed crops takes even longer. Brazil has already harvested its summer soybean crop and the winter corn crop is in the ground and scheduled for harvest in August and September. At that point, farmers begin planting their summer crops. Even without the El Niño, there are already doubts regarding whether Brazil will manage to expand its soybean and corn crops in the upcoming 2026/27 season. This is because of unfavourable global prices, as well as higher input costs, which could force Brazilian farmers to reduce fertilizer use. While a modest decline in fertilizer application is unlikely to significantly affect yields in a single season, production costs for soybeans and corn will be higher for the 2026/27 season. This increase could influence the cost of meat and biofuels in the following year. In short, pressures from weather and fertilizer prices are present, but their impact on food prices is unlikely to be felt until early next year.

Mexico Impact

The most immediate impact is likely to come through agricultural prices. Adverse weather conditions have historically reduce agricultural output and, with a lag, feed into livestock prices as poorer pasture conditions and water scarcity raise production costs. Agricultural inflation hit 14.33% y/y during the 2023-24 El Niño, nearly three times the headline rate, with fruits and vegetables peaking at 25.69%. The 2026 starting point is no less uncomfortable. Fruits and vegetables spiked to 21.77% in March and, despite easing to 14.38% in May, remain well above headline, leaving the most weather-sensitive part of the CPI basket exposed to a renewed supply shocks. It's worth highlighting that El Niño affects Mexico in distinct ways, with northern states tend to see higher precipitation in winter, which tends to benefit export crops. But the weather phenomenon also boosts the risk of unseasonal frosts and floods that damage, with potential implications for the tomato, wheat, and maize harvests. In the centre-south, El Niño reduces rainfall and coffee, sugarcane, maize, beans, and avocados are the most exposed crops.

Bad timing for Banxico. The central bank cut rates to 6.5% in May and signalled that the easing cycle had likely come to an end, citing weak activity and a resilient peso. We continue to view growth risks as outweighing inflation concerns and believe additional easing in Q3/26 remains possible. However, a moderate-to-strong El Niño would complicate that assessment by pushing up agricultural inflation through supply-side shocks that monetary policy cannot easily offset. This would make any further easing harder to deliver, even as growth concerns continue to mount.

El Niño also exposes structural vulnerabilities to more extreme weather. Along the Pacific coast, warmer sea surface temperatures fuel a more active hurricane season, raising the risk of storm damage to coastal infrastructure and export agriculture. At the same time, the phenomenon puts urban water supply under pressure. Cutzamala, which provides roughly a quarter of Mexico City's water, fell to just 27% capacity during the El Niño. An exceptionally wet 2025 reversed much of that damage, bringing the system back to 67.7% by early June 202 – the highest level in the seasonal cycle in seven years. That buffer offers some protection, but a strong El Niño would still test it.

Green's note builds on a UBS report published earlier this month, which warned that El Niño risks could send food inflation higher across Asia.

The U.S. is not out of the woods just yet. Bank of America analysts warn that the energy shock of the last several months could ultimately feed into food inflation later this year, with a lag (read the report).

Now there has been what Daryna Kovalska, a commodity strategist at BofA, described as an "aggressive positioning washout" in the agriculture trade. However, she believes that the selloff in soft commodities such as corn is well overdone.

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 23:00

Zero Sum: Cities Have Little To Show For Big Spending

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 02:35:00 +0000

Zero Sum: Cities Have Little To Show For Big Spending

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

America’s largest cities are increasing their spending at almost unprecedented rates.

A RealClearInvestigations (RCI) analysis of cities with at least 500,000 residents found they cumulatively raised their per-person spending by 18 percent over the last 10 budget cycles, accounting for inflation. The only equivalents on record are the spending surges ignited by the Great Society programs of the 1960s and Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal during the 1930s.

But unlike those past eras, today’s cities do not have the revenue to support their heavy spending. State and federal funding have dropped off from their record highs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and local tax hikes have not kept pace with spending. Large tax increases or reductions in city services will eventually be required to address burgeoning structural deficits, placing a burden on future generations.

The tradeoff would be easier to explain if cities were making strides to improve life for their residents. Census data, however, shows that key quality of life metrics in major cities have mostly been stagnant during the spending spree.

Each of the 38 cities in RCI’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau, FBI, Department of Housing and Urban Development, and enacted local budgets increased their spending faster than inflation over the last decade. Yet the cities that boosted their spending the most were, on average, no more or less likely to see measurable progress in reducing homelessness, lowering violent crime rates, tackling income inequality, improving rent affordability, and more. That was the case for the 33 cities led by Democrats and the five cities led by Republicans.

San Jose, California, saw its violent crime rate increase by 50 percent from 2017 to 2024, even after it doubled its police budget. The city is now proposing cuts to police spending and creating new taxes to fund its rapid budget growth in other areas. Seattle is considering shutting down its homelessness agency after huge investments failed to stop homeless rates from reaching the worst level in city history.

Christopher Thornberg, founder of the policy consulting firm Beacon Economics, isn’t surprised that big spending hasn’t produced big results. He said that cities typically don’t have the financing, policy sophistication, and regulatory oversight to meaningfully improve the economic status of their residents.

But that hasn’t stopped some cities from thinking “you can be successful just fire-hosing money across the economy,” said Thornberg, former director of the University of California, Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. “It seems sufficient to brag about the money they spent without referring to whether that spending accomplished anything.”

The Tax Gap

In 2016, large cities collected $6,727 of revenue per resident from local, state, and federal sources, adjusted for inflation. They spent 14 percent more than that: $7,685 per person.

RCI

By 2025, revenues had increased to $7,063 per person, but outlays had skyrocketed to $8,827. The difference of 25 percent is the largest gap on record since at least 1940.

The gap was not caused by low revenues. Cities earned record amounts of sales and property taxes last year. Instead, the deficits were driven by expanded bureaucracy, rising payrolls, overtime costs, and pension liabilities.

From 2017 to 2026, the public workforces of large cities grew faster than their populations. There were at least 12 cities that added new municipal jobs even though their populations dropped (a handful of cities do not disclose their staff headcounts). In an extreme example, Memphis added more than 1,000 public jobs even though the city lost more than 40,000 residents.

Many of those new hires work desk jobs. Census data shows large cities increased their administrative expenses—mayor’s offices, human resources departments, accountants, zoning departments, and more—by 55 percent from 2016 to 2023, accounting for inflation.

But staff headcounts at core city agencies like police and corrections departments are generally decreasing, forcing cities to spend large amounts on overtime hours to keep their communities safe with the limited staff they have available.

Crucially, RCI found only a weak statistical link between increases in a city’s property tax collection and increases in its overall spending. Cities like Phoenix and Boston that boosted their per-resident spending by 88 percent and 75 percent, respectively, were not necessarily the ones with increased property tax revenue to support their outlays.

That suggests many cities have a “build it and we will fund it” mentality, enacting policies before figuring out how to pay for them.

Previous studies have shown that outside pressures from advocates for rent affordability and labor unions influence budgets, independently of what cities can actually afford to spend. Historically, that did not cause issues because city revenues were typically higher than expenses. That went out the window after the COVID-19 pandemic, when temporary federal grants expired, and cities did not make cuts to compensate for the lost funding.

“The problem is that when governments start to spend money, they find it hard to stop spending money,” said Thornberg. “And after a year and a half of partying, you can’t get back in those old pants. You have these bloated budgets in many cities, and now they’re struggling to get their budgets back in line with a reasonable amount of revenue that can be expected.”

More Spending, More Homelessness

To illustrate these budget dynamics in action, RCI took a look at how some representative cities have responded to major issues.

Homelessness in America’s largest cities jumped by 34 percent on average from 2017 to 2024, driven partly by increased housing costs and job losses during the pandemic. RCI’s analysis found no statistically significant association between increased public welfare spending and reduced homelessness.

While Los Angeles is the poster child for getting little bang for the bucks it’s spent to combat homelessness, it is not alone. Seattle and surrounding King County were among the biggest spenders, with money pouring into the Regional Homelessness Authority. It was created by former Mayor Jenny Durkan in 2019 to “significantly decrease the incidence of unsheltered homelessness.” Washington State has also lifted its spending on housing construction by six times since then. But homelessness in Seattle increased at a faster rate than in any other large city but one, and rent price increases were also among the nation’s highest.

It’s easy to see where things went wrong. A state audit released in April found that the Homelessness Authority overspent its $200 million annual budget by $45 million, with portions of the money completely unaccounted for or spent on administrative expenses the city never approved. The authority is also paying individual contractors close to $500,000 annually, an amount unlikely to be seen as reasonable for a salaried public servant.

To find leaders with the “lived experience” of homelessness and marginalization, the authority invited a convicted repeat sex offender to join its board in 2023. When another board member objected, alleging she had been molested by the man in the past, co-chair Shanéé Colston shouted her down. “I don’t care if they’re a sex offender!” Colston said, according to the Seattle Times. “This is an inclusive space, and we are equitable to all.”

Colston was later replaced. Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson has publicly said she’s not opposed to shutting down the authority for its failure to reduce homelessness.

Nor has Portland, another big spender on homelessness, been able to reduce its soaring rate. It created a Supportive Housing Services tax in 2020 that funded Sunstone Way, a nonprofit set up by the city that collapsed in March.

Sunstone Way’s former finance director recently alleged in a whistleblower complaint that she was barred from board meetings for trying to tell county officials about the nonprofit’s “severe cash flow pressures.” She claims that when she flagged a $210,000 overpayment to a food vendor, Sunstone Way’s CEO told her to ignore it because he had “made a deal” with the vendor, who was allegedly a personal friend.

Local auditor Jennifer McGuirk warned Portland’s Homeless Services Department in 2022 that it needed to monitor Sunstone Way’s spending more carefully after it billed the government for the payroll expenses of duplicate employees. McGuirk claims she was ignored.

Homelessness decreased in 13 of the 38 cities RCI examined, but the success stories related more to policy than spending. Detroit embraced advanced data modeling systems to share information between various nonprofits, avoiding duplicated efforts and creating a real-time list of homeless individuals rather than a single annual count like most cities conduct. Homelessness dropped by 17 percent from 2017 to 2024. Milwaukee provided free lawyers to low-income tenants facing eviction and now claims to have zero people living on the street.

“Cities that have had success in battling homelessness, it turns out, it’s not just that they’re spending money, but how they’re spending money,” Thornberg said.

Although many big cities explicitly state that their budgets are designed to reduce inequality, large cities’ Gini index—a measurement of how evenly wealth is distributed—was virtually unchanged from 2017 to 2024. So was the percentage of the population with health insurance. Poverty rates improved by 1 percent on average. Cities that increased their overall budgets at a faster rate were no more or less likely to see improvement in any of those three categories.

The 10 cities with the smallest topline budget increases since 2017 all saw their poverty rates drop or remain unchanged. Those 10 cities, including Minneapolis and Long Beach, now have an average poverty rate of 13.8 percent, lower than most of their peers.

Police Spending Up, Crime Down a Bit

Violent crime rates in large cities improved slightly from 2017 to 2024, with an average decrease of 50 violent crimes per 100,000 people. The average police budget increased slightly faster than inflation.

But again, there was no statistically significant association between spending levels and violent crime rates. Cities that increased their police budgets were just as likely to see crime rates rise as cities that decreased theirs.

The negligible improvement in crime rates is especially worrisome given that other city services are being sacrificed to fund police departments. In 2022, 40 percent of America’s largest cities said public safety needs were so high that it was difficult to balance their budgets. The burden grew even higher in the following years, as police funding increased as a percentage of total city spending in both 2024 and 2025, according to the National League of Cities.

Higher spending does not always mean more police officers. Even though budgets are up, police staffing levels dropped by roughly 7 percent from 2013 to 2023, according to the Council on Criminal Justice.

That’s unsurprising given how much difficulty police departments are having recruiting new officers. Thaddeus Johnson, a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice who has been teaching at Georgia State University since 2014, said college students do not view public service as “glamorous” as they did just a few years ago. “I used to ask in every class, ‘Who wants to be a cop?’ and a quarter to half of the room would raise their hands. Since the pandemic, nobody has raised their hand in class, and I’m not exaggerating. There’s no interest among criminal justice majors in policing.”

In Phoenix, where spending and violent crime rates are both up, the police department has 650 vacancies. When the department does attract workers, they don’t always stay. Thirty percent of new recruits from 2023 to 2025 have already left.

The city can’t offer higher salaries to boost its retention rate because one-third of its police budget is spent funding future pensions for officers already on the force (payments to current retirees are funded by past years’ appropriations). Arizona’s pension investments lost most of their value during the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, and the effects still linger.

It’s a similar situation in San Jose, where 40 percent of police recruits leave the force before they become sworn officers, compared to only 6 percent in 2017. The staffing shortages force officers to work long overtime hours, driving up payroll costs.

A San Jose city audit released this April found that one quarter of all the hours police officers worked in 2025 were overtime—twice as much as in 2015. Many overtime hours were spent on report writing by officers who never obtained the required approval from their superiors to work extra hours.

Johnson said low staff headcounts are not an excuse for rising violent crime. “If there’s a million officers on the street, crime will still happen,” he said. “It’s really about how you use those officers. What is your supervisor to officer ratio? The type of training the officers are receiving? The type of technology that’s available?”

San Jose increased its per-resident police spending by 66 percent above inflation from 2016 to 2023—far more than any other city with at least 500,000 residents. But it also saw its violent crime rate per 100,000 people increase by 50 percent from 2017 to 2024, again much more than any other large city.

The crime rate did improve significantly in 2025, but remained well above pre-pandemic levels. And while San Jose’s crime rate is not necessarily higher than other comparable cities, its rapid increase despite a spending boost highlights the challenges cities face when trying to improve quality of life through budgetary means.

There are several success stories like Dallas and San Francisco, which have seen violent crime rates improve after police budgets were increased. Others, like Boston, saw crime rates improve even though police budgets did not keep pace with inflation.

Johnson cited San Antonio as an example of efficient spending. He said the city smartly deployed its officers by assigning patrols to specific places and times when crime was more likely to occur, improving public safety without breaking the bank. San Antonio’s per-resident spending on police is lower than almost any other large city, yet its violent crime rate sank by 16 percent from 2017 to 2024.

Kicking the Budget Can Down the Road

Cities will eventually have to balance their budgets, but they may face difficulty raising taxes to do so. Katherine Loughead, a vice president at the nonprofit Tax Foundation, claimed the recent upward trend in taxation is already causing “widespread unrest” among voters.

Almost every major city has a law stating that its outlays and revenues must be equal, but that does not apply to capital spending on infrastructure and city-owned property like buildings and cars. Many cities also overestimate their revenues and underestimate their spending on paper, allowing deficits to develop.

They close the gap by issuing bonds, digging into reserve funds, selling municipal property, and ignoring obligations to fund public employees’ future pension and healthcare plans.

It’s why New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s highly-touted “balanced” budget proposal for 2027 is not really balanced at all. Unable to avoid reductions to city services by taxing the rich and increasing property taxes, Mamdani escaped spending cuts by shoving pension liabilities into the future for another mayor to deal with. Fifty-four of America’s 75 largest cities did the same in 2025 with either pensions or retiree healthcare costs, according to Truth in Accounting.

Chicago is already feeling the effects of that approach. After underfunding its pensions for years, Chicago now has a pension debt larger than most state governments. More than 15 percent of its budget in 2025 was spent trying to fix it, rather than being used to support taxpayers.

This summer’s budget hearings in cities across the country will likely represent a new high-water mark in structural imbalances. If past practices prevail, rather than slash services or raise taxes, most city leaders will find clever ways to once again kick the can down the road.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 22:35

"But A Whimper": Retail Euphoria In SpaceX Fizzles After Stock Loses $600 Billion In One Day

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 02:10:00 +0000

"But A Whimper": Retail Euphoria In SpaceX Fizzles After Stock Loses $600 Billion In One Day

It started off with a bang: SpaceX IPOed on June 12 with an opening price of $150 on their first day of trade, well above the offering price of $135, and within two days, enterprising traders were ravenously bidding up 380 calls (expiring in just days) in hopes of sending the stock soaring in hopes of orchestrating a gamma squeeze.

They are going for it https://t.co/tT4cJns9nv pic.twitter.com/P6NTzq4tx2
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026

In a note out this morning, Canaccord described the "new level of optimism" that accompanied the SpaceX IPO as follows:

SPCX dynamics indicate new level of frenzy: prior to this historic IPO, we felt AI optimism was robust and certainly at times overdone, but largely funded by rational (if not exuberant) institutions including large, well capitalized public companies and PE investors. In our view, SPCX has marked a new chapter in this saga, ushering in a greater level of retail involvement and driving the stock into the top 6 market cap companies in the world, and in its first week of trading, adding the equivalent of ~1/2 the value of META, with a market value much greater than sister company TSLA despite generating only ~20% of its revenue base. Despite the company name, revenues are skewed towards connectivity (Starlink contributing $11.39 billion), with launch services generating only $4.1 billion (AI compute was $3.2 billion in 2025).

Vanda Track was even more effusive, and in a retrospective published earlier on Monday wrote that "SpaceX's first week of trading was one for the record books. Retail investors bought a net $405mn of SPCX during its first 5 trading sessions, comfortably the strongest retail IPO debut in recent history. Retail buying was extreme during the first few sessions before moderating later in the week. The flow profile increasingly resembles a retail investor that is building long-term positions rather than chasing a short-term meme stock."

The scale of retail buying in SPCX last week becomes even more remarkable when put into context. Retail investors bought more SPCX last week than they bought across all other Mag 7 stocks combined (total activity of the last 5 days in NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL and GOOG was $278mn combined). They also bought more SpaceX than the combined retail buying of SPY & QQQ over the past week ($352mn). For a stock that only started trading last week, SpaceX is already competing with the market's biggest stocks and ETFs for retail capital.

As has become the norm, while buying of the stock was off the charts, retail investors quickly congregated to various leveraged SpaceX products, which also attracted strong demand. Retail investors bought $65.8mn of the Leverage Shares 2x Long SPCX Daily ETF during its first few trading sessions (while a sizeable number, but it remains well below the type of activity normally seen during speculative retail frenzies). It still dwarfs recent thematic launches – the Roundhill Memory ETF DRAM attracted just $5.6mn during its first four trading days, and it took 22 sessions for cumulative retail buying in DRAM to exceed the amount already allocated to the leveraged SpaceX ETF.

Yet after bursting out of the gate, momentum has fizzled and hopes that the stock would gamma squeeze into orbit (on a reusable rocket, of course), quickly faded. The result: after peaking on June 16 - the day SPCX stock hit a record $225 and briefly topped Microsoft in market cap - daily retail flows have collapsed, and the retail turnover has become virtually nonexistent.

This brings us back to what Canaccord said: while the bank concluded that based on the early performance of SpaceX, "Tech can likely keep its momentum in the short term", it warned that "a new, more dangerous layer of air is now underneath these stocks."

Sure enough, with the momentum gone, and the realization that trillions of shares are about to be unlocked, the stock has slumped for 3 straight days, culminating with Monday's plunge when, with SpaceX rushing to take advantage of the bond market euphoria to sell over $20 billion in investment-grade bonds for the first time before the bond window shuts in order to refinance an existing bridge loan with much higher interest, SPCX shares plunged 16.4%, shedding a record $600 billion in market value, and following a 5% drop on Wednesday and a 3.5% slide on Thursday, the stock is now just barely above where it broke for trading at $150 two weeks ago.

Worse, the stock tagged its post-IPO opening price of $150 after hours, and should the stock open below that tomorrow, then everyone who bought in the open market (and held) will be underwater.

What is especially notable, or perhaps expected, is that the pump and dump is taking place with only 5% of SPCX float available for trading: 95% of the stock is still locked-up for trading. But that will change soon:

22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson said that there is a 20% insider share unlock after Space's earnings announcement in early to mid-August. In addition, there is a 10% share unlock if the stock trades 30% above the IPO price, as well as 7% share unlocks set for around Aug. 21 and then again on Sept. 10.

Jacobson said insiders could potentially sell 44% of SpaceX shares by early September, increasing the current float by about 900%.

In other words, it's only going to get more difficult to lift the stock from here, and meanwhile, Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading said that “sellers are back in control,” adding that “anyone in the world who wanted to buy this has bought it already.”

In its take on today's move, Bloomberg wrote that today's drop in SpaceX "managed to bring much of the market down with it."

We don't know if that's indeed the case yet, but in this market - which has been driven almost entirely by retail euphoria and momentum chasing from the March lows - should retail indeed get cold feet, first to SpaceX, then to the Memory bubble, and finally to Semi stocks which have become the main beneficiaries of the AI trade...

Divergence between Hyperscalers and Semis becoming untenable: massive capex spending is the key variable. pic.twitter.com/ifrtT9LJnR
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 22, 2026

... then it will be time to invert TS Eliot, as the selling whimper becomes a bang.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 22:10

Flesh-Eating Screwworm Cases Rise To 15 After New Detections In Texas: USDA

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 01:45:00 +0000

Flesh-Eating Screwworm Cases Rise To 15 After New Detections In Texas: USDA

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on June 21 that three more cases of the flesh-eating New World screwworm have been detected in Texas, bringing the total in the United States to 15.

The latest cases involved a lamb in Crockett County and two calves in Edwards County, Texas. The USDA said in a post on X that it would immediately begin releasing sterile flies outside the affected areas in Crockett County following the new detection there.

According to the agency, the new cases in Edwards County were expected because they occurred within the current affected areas, where sterile flies were already being released.

“Because a fly’s life cycle is an average of 21 days, it takes multiple reproductive cycles for populations to die off following sterile fly releases,“ it stated.

”As such, we may continue to see cases occur in already affected zones—a sign that our surveillance is working.”

The USDA said it would continue carrying out “aggressive eradication efforts” alongside state partners, including deploying tens of millions of sterile flies each week in and around the infestation area.

On June 11, the Food and Drug Administration authorized the emergency use of generic nitenpyram for treating New World screwworm infestations in dogs and cats that weigh at least 2 pounds and are more than 3 weeks old. The drug is made by Felix Pharmaceuticals.

Acting FDA Commissioner Kyle Diamantas said in a June 11 statement that the agency has spent nearly a year preparing for the possible arrival of the screwworm in the country.

“As of today, under the Trump administration’s decisive leadership, the FDA has issued ten [emergency use authorizations] and three conditional approvals for drugs to combat this threat, and this count will continue to grow as we receive more animal drug submissions and unleash American regulatory speed,” Diamantas said.

New World screwworms are flesh-eating parasites that infect livestock, wildlife, and, in rarer cases, humans. Screwworm fly maggots burrow into the living tissue of animals, causing severe wounds that can be fatal.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at least seven people had died from screwworm infections in Central America and Mexico as of Jan. 20.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott also deployed all available state resources earlier this month to eradicate screwworms after the first confirmed case in South Texas on June 3.

The screwworm fly was officially eradicated from the United States in 1966 through a strategy primarily involving the release of sterile males, which mated with females, resulting in infertile eggs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 21:45

Iran Oil Exports Through Hormuz Hit Wartime High

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 01:20:00 +0000

Iran Oil Exports Through Hormuz Hit Wartime High

While other countries line up on either side of Hormuz, hoping for clarity whether they actually can cross this time, Iran isn’t wasting any time moving its oil out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifted the naval blockade outside the chokepoint and the U.S. and Iran discuss a framework on a lasting peace deal.

Even as Western shippers and insurers remain wary of the conflicting signals about how open the Strait of Hormuz really is - after all it was opened once before just to close hours later and remain shut for over a month - Iran is rushing to evacuate barrels it wasn’t able to push past the U.S. blockade over the past two months.

At least three supertankers, carrying a total of 6 million barrels of Iranian crude, moved to transit the Strait of Hormuz early on Monday, in open AIS navigation showing Singaporean waters as a destination, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

That’s the most Iranian crude openly making its way out the key Iranian oil port at Kharg Island and into the Strait of Hormuz in a day since the war began on February 28, according to Bloomberg.

The three tankers seen entering the Strait of Hormuz outbound on Monday were signaling destinations offshore Singapore, a known ship-to-ship (STS) transfer area for Iranian crude before loading on the tankers mostly bound for China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots.

The surge in Iranian shipments out of the Gulf and into waters near the Malacca and Singapore Straits would give Iran a lifeline to boost its exports that had suffered from the US blockade in the past few weeks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 21:20

Chinese Grid Operators Resist Plans To Boost Renewables To Power AI

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:55:00 +0000

Chinese Grid Operators Resist Plans To Boost Renewables To Power AI

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Grid operators are concerned that the Chinese drive to hike the share of renewable electricity powering AI would raise the risks for power firms as peak demand at data centers is difficult to forecast.

Industry analysts and officials have told Reuters that the Chinese strategic priority of having renewables power the majority of electricity demand at data centers by 2030 may not be feasible.

“From what we understand, they (data centers) cannot really adjust power consumption load much,” Reuters quoted Pei Shanpeng, a director of Chinese power firm State Power Investment Corporation, as telling attendees at a recent industry conference in Beijing.

“GPUs are very expensive, so once they are purchased, operators want to use them as quickly and as intensively as possible,” the official added.

China plans to use massively its renewable energy boom to power the data centers.

The country has just launched the world’s first offshore wind-powered underwater data center, using seawater cooling and renewable electricity to reduce energy, water, and land requirements. The 24 MW-capacity Shanghai Lingang undersea data center demonstration was developed by HiCloud Technology and the state-owned China Communications Construction.

A report from last year by the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the data center electricity supply in China was dominated by coal with a near 70% share as of 2025, followed by renewables with nearly 20%, nuclear close to 10%, and natural gas accounting for the remainder.

Solar PV and wind would add nearly 90 TWh of additional electricity for data centers by 2030, “supported by an increase in the share of renewables in the grid electricity mix, provincial co-location mandates and policies to prioritise the construction of data centres in renewables-rich western China,” the IEA said.

However, analysts and industry officials say the data center sector isn’t a good fit for renewable energy because of the lack of visibility about peak demand from these power-sucking centers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 20:55

"Optimism Has Picked Up": Retail Operators See Consumer Relief After Gas Prices Tumble

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:30:00 +0000

"Optimism Has Picked Up": Retail Operators See Consumer Relief After Gas Prices Tumble

As soon as the national average for 87-octane gasoline at the pump dipped below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level early last week, we observed multiple institutional desks begin to forecast that the light at the end of the tunnel was beginning to materialize for consumers, especially working-class households that have been financially battered by surging fuel prices over the past several months.

UBS analyst Mark Paski told clients about "early signs of a turn in U.S. consumer discretionary."

Then, Piper Sandler Chief Global Economist Nancy Lazar told clients, "If inflation has indeed peaked, that will boost real incomes (nominal incomes have been solid), a positive for both real consumer spending and housing, but don't expect robust growth in either."

Gathering more ground-level intelligence about possible consumer sentiment shifts, or at least the early chapters of it, Wolfe Research polled 270 industry contacts on the consumer outlook this summer.

"Optimism has picked-up a bit relative to April/May, but there are persistent concerns about higher gas prices, inflation reaccelerating & price competition in the 2H," Wolfe Research analyst Greg Badishkanian wrote.

Badishkanian continued, "Our checks occurred last week and at that point optimism hadn't reached pre-war levels yet. They were still concerned that if the conflict dragged on, it would hurt their respective industries."

He noted, "When we asked some of the operators within more discretionary segments about the impact of a potential lasting peace deal, they all thought it would boost sales and profitability in the coming quarter or two."

Where has operator optimism changed the most versus two months ago?

The read-through: Consumer sentiment is stabilizing, but the improvement is uneven. The weakest categories are RV dealers, home improvement, boat dealers, beer, auto dealers, fast food, and casual dining, all of which remain negative.

However, the strongest categories are Harley dealers, powersports, ag dealers, short-term rentals, convenience stores, and lodging.

The Harley outperformance is an outlier.

Operators expected that if the US-Iran conflict persisted into July, the impact would only be slightly negative.

Badishkanian and his team spoke with operators across various industries. Here is what they had to say

Leisure

We met with Harley's (HOG) investor relations to discuss trends in the business and conversation primarily focusing around retail sales, sustainability of the business, inventories, & new product launches. HOG highlighted that retail sales are accelerating, and dealer sentiment is improving for them, but there is still work to be done in order to maintain the momentum of the top-line. The team reiterated that inventories remain healthy worldwide, and mgm has prioritized destocking. The launches of the Sprint and Sportster models were brought up in the conversation as key initiatives for maintaining momentum into 2027. Mgmt highlighted that despite the newer, lower-priced bikes being lower margin they expect them to profitable and bring in a newer entry level customer to Harley.

We caught up with Norwegian's (NCLH) VP of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications this week when we talked through the 3Q yields pressure, revenue management, marketing strategy, the Great Stirrup Cay initiatives, and shore side cost management. NCLH still expects 3Q yields to be under the most pressure for the full year, and the company has started to shift towards getting 2027 on the right trajectory. The Great Stirrup Cay Water Park and Pier are set to open on September 4th, with an expectation for 25bps of yield lift in 2026 and 75bps for the full year '27. The team also highlighted a greater focus on marketing spend, & corporate costs shoreside.

Restaurants

Yum! Brands (YUM) has entered definitive agreements to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7B. Pizza Hut (excluding Pizza Hut China) will be acquired by LongRange capital for ~$1.5B. In addition, Pizza Hut China will be acquired by Yum! China for ~ $1.2B. The company will continue to provide Byte (its proprietary tech platform), as well as select corporate services to Pizza Hut ex-China. Yum! expects the fees from these services to offset corporate G&A expenses historically allocated to Pizza Hut. Both transactions are expected to close in 3Q26.

FAT Brands completed the final step of its bankruptcy restructuring, with FBG Bid Co. acquiring assets tied to 13 concepts for about $595 million and transferring more than 1,700 restaurants to a lender-backed group. The company filed for Chapter 11 in January under roughly $1.5 billion in debt. Twin Peaks was sold separately for $359.5 million, and Smokey Bones ceased operations after no buyer was found.

Food Retailers

Kroger (KR) reported roughly in-line 1Q results with expectations and reaffirmed its FY outlook. ID sales ex. fuel increased +1.0% (64bps headwind from egg deflation) vs consensus at +0.9% and decelerated 60bps on a 2-yr basis from the prior quarter. Adj EPS of $1.58 missed consensus at $1.59. Kroger continues to expect ID sales of +1.0-2.0% (including ~130 bps headwind from IRA) with the midpoint in line with consensus at +1.5%. Operating profit of $5.0-5.2bn is 3.4% above consensus of $4.93bn, as questions persist about the level of price investments to come. The EPS range of $5.10 to $5.30 is 3c below consensus.

Ahold Delhaize (Not Covered) announced the nomination of Claire Peters as the new CEO of Ahold Delhaize USA. Ahold Delhaize US operates Food Lion, Giant, Hannaford and Stop & Shop supermarket locations in the US. Claire most recently served as the VP fo Worldwide Fresh at Amazon, but has also held roles at Woolworth's Group & Tesco.

Broadlines & Hardlines

The Joint Center for Housing Studies released their 2026 State of Nation's Housing report this week. The report and webcast to follow were cautious as the affordability crisis continues to worsen, remodel spend is still above pre-COVID levels and pull forward remains a challenge for the industry. Median Home Prices remain elevated vs median household income, at nearly 2008 highs, and affordable units supply continues to be constrained. Click here for our full takeaways and data parsing.

Target (TGT) continues to accelerate the pace of change in the business. One of the best examples of this is fun 101, where Target is allowing merchants to have more runway in these categories to make changes. Recent announcements like the Issac Mizrahi partnership, Olivia Rodrigo's exclusive music launch, and even increased focus on Trading Cards are driving customers back to TGT. We think further leaning into Fun 101 and these cultural events will be an important part of Target's go-forward strategy and whether the business can maintain momentum. Read Spencer's full takeaways here.

La-Z-Boy (LZB; not covered), a furniture manufacturer, reported F'4Q results which beat Street estimates, with F'1Q guidance also ahead of consensus. Management believes they have levers to drive growth in their business, while the timing of a return to growth in the broader industry remains uncertain, but remain optimistic about an eventual rebound in furniture and home furnishings, which historically grew +3% to +4%

CarMax (KMX; not covered) posted F'1Q (ending May 31st) results ahead of expectations with EPS of $1.31 vs FC 97c. Sales were up +6.2% to $8.01bn vs FC for $7.42bn, led by higher wholesale revenue, which grew +14% (units: +8.4%; avg selling price: +5.1%). Used unit comps were also better than feared at -0.8% vs FC -2.7%

A consumer inflection point appears to be approaching, but the timing still largely hinges on fuel prices staying well below the $4 national average.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 20:30

No New Laws Required... Private Biometrics Are Building The Digital ID Prison

Tyler Durden — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:05:00 +0000

No New Laws Required... Private Biometrics Are Building The Digital ID Prison

Authored by Patti Johnson via The Burning Platform blog,

That “black pill moment” is arriving faster than many realize. Not primarily through sweeping new government mandates, but through private companies quietly normalizing biometric data collection under the banners of “security,” “fraud prevention,” and “child protection.” They are erecting the infrastructure for a world where you cannot easily participate in daily life, commerce, or even basic online access without surrendering your face, your license scan, or other biometrics. Once the systems exist and the data flows, laws can simply ratify what private actors have already made routine.

In a recent commentary “Digital ID Black Pill Moment”, I highlighted a sobering reality: 186 out of 198 countries already have digital ID systems in place. Only a shrinking handful of nations lack foundational national digital IDs. As I wrote, “the global push for digital IDs is far advanced, likely past the point of no return, aligning with the UN’s 2030 goal of universal legal identity and enabling a globalist digital currency system that could control access to everything.”

Facebook/Meta: Selfie or Stay Locked Out

Government mandates are not required to finish building the digital surveillance prison. Citizens are willingly submitting their biometrics to access social media sites. For example, I am no longer on Facebook. They banned me during the Covid era after I began sharing information about the true contents of the shots and alternative treatments. A friend just sent me a Facebook post and I could not view it without taking a selfie and sending it to FB. No way was I going to comply.

Try viewing certain Facebook posts or recovering a flagged account, and you may hit this wall. Users are increasingly prompted to submit a video selfie turning their head in different directions so the system can map facial geometry to “prove you’re a real person” or restore access. The company states it uses this to combat scams and compromised accounts, and claims the video is deleted after verification.

Here is what the prompt looks like:

blogger.googleusercontent.com

about.fb.com

This is not a rare case. It is quickly becoming the normal way companies handle account recovery, new account setup, suspected suspicious activity, or even basic access to articles and information on many websites. Your facial biometric data is sent to a private company that already holds huge amounts of user information and is under constant pressure and often partners with governments and international standards organizations.

Uber: Selfie + Driver’s License Scan Just to Ride

My husband recently tried to order an Uber ride and was required to submit a selfie plus front and back photos of his driver’s license before the app would proceed. Uber’s official materials describe identity verification (including selfies matched via facial recognition) primarily for drivers to prevent account sharing, and for riders it is often framed as optional for a “verified badge.” Yet real users are encountering these hard prompts in practice.

Here are examples of the verification flows Uber and similar platforms use:

ktla.com

i.ytimg.com

The stated reason is safety and trust on the platform. The practical effect is another private company harvesting and cross-referencing your facial biometrics and government ID data.

Banking, Finance, Telecom, and Beyond

Major banks now routinely use facial recognition or selfie verification for mobile app logins, high-value transfers, account opening (a process known as KYC, or “Know Your Customer” identity verification required by banking regulations), and fraud checks. Telecom providers require selfies for SIM card swaps (replacing your phone’s Subscriber Identity Module card) or account modifications. Gig economy platforms (such as ride-sharing or delivery services like Uber, DoorDash, or similar) use third-party services that demand selfie plus ID document verification. Some retail and payment systems are piloting biometric checkout.

Here is the kind of selfie/biometric prompt users see in identity verification flows used by banks and fintechs:

veriff.com

verifynow.co.za

Proponents say this reduces identity theft, speeds up processes, and improves security compared to passwords or one-time codes. The result, however, is the same: your face becomes the key to your money and services.

Driver’s Licenses Already Contain Biometric Data

Every U.S. state requires a facial photograph on driver’s licenses and state IDs.

That photo is biometric data. Many states’ DMV databases feed into facial recognition systems used by law enforcement. REAL ID standards and emerging mobile driver’s licenses (mDLs) are digitizing and enhancing this further. Eighteen states already have biometric-enabled digital driver’s licenses.

Age Verification Laws Accelerate the Trend

Florida’s HB 3 (Online Protections for Minors) restricts social media access for children under 14 and requires parental consent for 14- and 15-year-olds. To comply, platforms must verify ages using government ID or biometric data. The result is that adults, too, will need to submit ID or facial biometrics simply to access platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and others. Similar requirements are advancing under the UK’s Online Safety Act, which mandates robust age verification, including facial age estimation, for sites hosting potentially harmful or pornographic content, with ripple effects across social media.

Parents Should be the Gatekeepers Not the Government

Proponents argue these measures protect children from predators, explicit content, and addictive algorithms, while giving parents better tools to manage access. I believe the real solution lies with parents themselves. Parents should be the primary gatekeepers, setting firm limits and supervising where their children go online.

Today’s children, immersed in cell phones from a young age, are losing the ability to communicate effectively on a normal, personal level. If I were raising children now, I would not give them a cell phone. We grew up with perfectly fulfilling childhoods without them. Instead of relying on government-mandated biometric checkpoints, we should return responsibility to families. Yet the architecture being built creates a universal biometric gateway for internet participation: one that affects everyone, not just minors.

The Bigger Picture: Agenda 2030 and the “Cannot Buy or Sell” Infrastructure

This is not happening in a vacuum. It aligns with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 16.9 push for universal legal identity by 2030 and the broader frameworks of the Great Reset / Agenda 2030. Private companies are doing the expensive, politically risky work of normalizing biometric surrender and building interoperable databases. Once the data exists at scale, faces linked to licenses, accounts, transactions, and online activity, adding legal requirements for purchases, services, or internet access becomes trivial.

We are told it is all for safety, convenience, fraud prevention, and protecting the vulnerable. Yet the cumulative effect is a world in which opting out becomes increasingly difficult, anonymity erodes, and every interaction can be tracked, verified, and potentially scored or restricted through biometric identifiers.

The infrastructure for systems in which you “cannot buy or sell without an ID” is being assembled one prompted selfie at a time by Meta, Uber, banks, app developers, and verification vendors. This often happens before governments even pass the final laws.

We have been warned. The question now is whether we will continue feeding the system our most personal biometric data in the name of convenience, or whether we will recognize the trap while there is still room to resist, opt out where possible, demand real privacy protections, and support alternatives that do not require surrendering our faces to participate in society.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 20:05

Biden Judge Sparkle Sooknanan Blocks Trump Admin SAVE Act Database

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 23:40:00 +0000

Biden Judge Sparkle Sooknanan Blocks Trump Admin SAVE Act Database

A Biden-appointed federal judge - who quit her previous job as partner at the Jones Day law firm because they did work for the 1st Trump administration - just ruled against the administration's plan to create a database to verify citizenship to be able to vote in US elections.

Judge Sparkle Sooknanan ruled on Monday that officials across several government agencies "haphazardly combined and repurposed the private information of millions of Americans, including citizenship data that they knew to be unreliable," in order to comply with the Trump administration's attempts to implement election integrity measures.

A March executive order directed the Social Security Administration (SSA) to create a “State Citizenship List” derived from its data, naturalization records and the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) database, an existing database maintained by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that is used to determine eligibility for federal programs.

Since the EO, said Sooknanan, "states have partnered with the federal government to access the database and are actively removing United States citizens from voter rolls based on inaccurate information," she wrote in her 75-page ruling.

"All in all, the federal government has knowingly trampled on the privacy rights of American citizens in a manner that threatens the sacred right to vote. This Court cannot stand idly by while that happens," she continued.

According to Sooknanan - ruling in favor of the League of Women voters, efforts to establish the database were unlawful - and violated the Social Security Act, Privacy Act and Administrative Procedure Act.

BREAKING: We just won a court order blocking the Trump-Vance admin’s attempt to haphazardly consolidate Americans’ sensitive data into a massive government database.

This protects millions from baseless investigations and unlawful voter roll purges – a critical win for voting… pic.twitter.com/cZxduqtqRi
— Democracy Forward (@DemocracyFwd) June 22, 2026

Reacting to the ruling, far-left organization Democracy Now wrote "This protects millions from baseless investigations and unlawful voter roll purges – a critical win for voting rights."

Meanwhile, DHS general counsel James Percival said on X: "t’s amazing how hard the Left will fight to stop us from solving problems they insist do not exist. Judge Sparkle Soknanan’s latest ruling preventing DHS from addressing alien voting is just the latest example."

It’s amazing how hard the Left will fight to stop us from solving problems they insist do not exist. Judge Sparkle Soknanan’s latest ruling preventing DHS from addressing alien voting is just the latest example!
— James Percival (@DHSGenCounsel) June 22, 2026

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 19:40

Waymo Recalls Robotaxis After Cars Drive Into Construction Zones

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 23:15:00 +0000

Waymo Recalls Robotaxis After Cars Drive Into Construction Zones

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Waymo has recalled its entire fleet of vehicles after some of its driverless cars were caught speeding into freeway construction zones.

The voluntary recall on June 13 of the California-based tech company’s 3,871 vehicles is to fix its 5th-generation Automated Driving System (ADS) software so that it will recognize and avoid construction zones.

“Waymo’s mission is to be the world’s most trusted driver, and the data shows that we’re making roads safer in the communities in which we operate,” a Waymo spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) estimates that the entire fleet carries the software defect, according to the agency’s safety report.

“Under certain circumstances the [autonomous vehicles] may enter and drive at speed in freeway construction zones due to inappropriately prioritizing the avoidance of other freeway hazards and/or failing to recognize the construction zone,” NHTSA stated in the report.

Waymo investigated one such incident on April 11 and five on April 19 in which Waymo cars autonomously drove past ramp closure signs into freeway construction zones in Phoenix, Arizona, according to the report.

The company’s field safety committee implemented driving restrictions on April 20 until more improvements could be made, according to the report.

On May 18, seven Waymo vehicles in the San Francisco Bay Area entered freeway lanes in construction zones by driving between cones designating the lane’s closure. In this case, the software did not prioritize avoiding the other freeway hazards or failed to recognize the construction zone.

The safety committee put restrictions in place after the May incident, Waymo reported.

The recall is a notice of the company’s intent to improve its software and address the problems.

Waymo voluntarily restricted freeway operations in May while making improvements to the software to avoid other freeway hazards.

No collisions or injuries were reported as a result of the construction zone incidents. The company started offering public riders trips using freeways last November in the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix areas.

The 5th-generation Waymo Driver on the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE. Waymo

This is Waymo’s second full-fleet recall this year.

In May, the U.S. Transportation Department issued a recall of Waymo’s 3,791 vehicles after one of its vehicles drove into a flooded and impassable road in San Antonio, Texas, and was swept away despite the car detecting that the road might be impassable.

The company notified federal and state regulators before filing a voluntary federal software recall that was published by the NHTSA, according to a company spokesperson.

New Ojai Rides

On May 28, Waymo rolled out its newest vehicle—the Ojai—featuring its 6th-generation technology serving riders in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix.

The boxy, baby blue robotaxi is a fully electric and designed to be fully autonomous. The vehicle is designed for full accessibility with braille and screen readers.

The 6th-generation Waymo Driver is integrated into the all-electric Ojai. Waymo

The doors open like an elevator and the cabin is meant to feel like a “living room on wheels” with large LED screens and customizable temperatures and music, Waymo said.

Waymo plans to expand Ojai’s service area to include Denver, Las Vegas, and San Diego before opening it to more cities later this year, according to the company.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 19:15

China Gold Imports Soar To Two Year High, As Hong Kong Gold Bar Imports Surge Ahead Of Clearing System Launch

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 22:50:00 +0000

China Gold Imports Soar To Two Year High, As Hong Kong Gold Bar Imports Surge Ahead Of Clearing System Launch

China’s monthly gold imports reached their highest in more than two years in May, showing the world’s biggest buyer’s appetite for bullion remained resilient as prices remained under pressure; the number prompted some to scratch their heads as to where all this gold is going in light of tepid official central bank purchases, coupled with the lowest gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange since the covid outbreak.

As Bloomberg reports, imports were around 163 tons last month, the highest since March 2024, according to customs data released on Saturday. Volumes for the first five months of 2026 were about 692 tons, up by about 76% from a year earlier.

Chinese demand for physical bullion bars, as well as metal linked to gold accumulation plans (low-barrier products that allow investors to buy gold incrementally), have been among the main drivers of the surge, said Song Jiangzhen, a researcher at the Guangzhou Southern Gold Market Academy.

China also started implementing a new import licensing regime for gold from June 1, with certain banks facing fewer restrictions. But the change may have prompted some banks to use up their existing quotas before the new system began, Song said.

Curiously, in its latest official monthly update, China's central banb, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) only increased its gold reserves by nearly 10 tonnes last month, its 19th consecutive month of bullion purchases. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced on Sunday that China's official gold reserves rose by 320,000 troy ounces or 9.95 tonnes in May to a total of 74.96 million troy ounces or 2331.52 tonnes.

China's total foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.4422 trillion at the end of May, increasing by $31.7 billion or 0.93% from April. This is the highest level for China’s FX reserves since November 2015; they have remained above $3.3 trillion for the past 10 months.

SAFE attributed the growth of reserves to a number of factors, including a firmer US Dollar Index and rising global asset prices, adding that China's sound economic momentum has underpinned the stability of its reserves.

Experts have noted that China's rising foreign exchange reserves are closely linked to the country’s export performance. China's total foreign trade in the first four months of 2026 rose to $2.39 trillion, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year, with exports rising by 11.3% percent to $1.37 trillion and imports rising 20% percent to $1.01 trillion, according to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs

According to the latest central bank gold purchase tracker from Goldman, of the 59 tonnes of gold purchased by central bank in April, China's PBOC was estimated to have bought 24 tonnes of gold, or well below the recent pace of imports which are about 5x greater. While the pace of central bank gold purchases has moderated to ~50 tonnes/month on a 3-month (seasonally adjusted) and 12-month moving average basis, Goldman views the ongoing diversification trend as structural.

Goldman remains bullish on gold, with continued central bank diversification the main structural driver of the bank's constructive base case for gold prices, contributing 9% to its forecast for appreciation by Dec26. As we highlighted last week, a recent World Gold Council survey supports Goldman's optimistic view: a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, while ~90% expect global reserves to rise with the remainder expecting broadly stable holdings. As a result, Goldman assumes continued central bank accumulation of 50t/month in 2026 and 40t/month in 2027.

Meanwhile, as Kitco notes, China’s domestic gold market has shown definite signs of cooling in recent weeks.

“Amid heightened market uncertainty, gold ETFs have seen an overall reduction in assets under management, with several funds experiencing significant net outflows,” noted a report from Gelonghui Finance. “As of June 3, 14 gold ETFs recorded combined net outflows exceeding RMB 10 billion [$1.48 billion] over the past month.”

“The previously widely accepted investment view of 'buying on dips amid falling gold prices' has started to face divergence under current volatile market conditions,” they added.

Gold prices have retreated by about a quarter from the record highs reached in January, weighed down by EM selling (most notably Turkey in the early days of the Iran war), and global inflation fears amid the war in the Middle East which have pushed the US dollar sharply higher. While strong buying from Chinese consumers was a key catalyst for the January frenzy, domestic demand has since moderated, but without a major slump.

Adding to the mathematical mystery, the latest numbers from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) showed that gold withdrawals in May totaled only 63.5 tonnes – the lowest level since February of 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, and around half of what they were in March of this year. Industry professionals told Gelonghui Finance that “while short-term gold price volatility may persist, the core rationale supporting gold’s strategic allocation value remains intact over the medium to long term.”

In other words, there appears to be a gap between near record imports, tepid official central bank demand, and muted gold withdrawals from the SGE.

This is not a new development: as we documented previously, China is well known for indicating just modest central bank purchases, even as total Chinese purchases of gold on the London OTC market are orders of magnitude higher.

China reported 5 tonnes of gold purchases in February (160k oz per PBOC).
China actually bought 50 tonnes of gold in February (per GS) pic.twitter.com/oQifGszNcQ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 13, 2025

Separately, Bloomberg also reported that at least four of the 11 banks participating in Hong Kong’s new gold clearing system are importing large bullion bars in preparation for the mechanism’s planned launch in July.

Traders are receiving orders from some of the clearing banks to move 400-ounce gold bars into the city, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. The bars meet the London Good Delivery industry standard.

The 400-ounce bars are typically traded by banks and sovereign entities in London, the world’s largest bullion trading hub, but are less common in the Asian market, which is dominated by much smaller kilobars. The banks need to build up inventories to allow for physical delivery when clearing begins next month.

By launching its gold clearing system, Hong Kong is securing first-mover advantage in a push to become Asia’s preeminent hub for bullion trading. Last week, Singapore announced its own plans to launch a clearing mechanism by the end of the year.

Both cities are aiming to capitalize on strong demand in Asia, where many investors remain bullish about the long-term prospects for the precious metal as an alternative store of wealth despite the recent drop in price as the war in the Middle East fanned concerns around inflation and higher interest rates.

In an emailed response to questions, a spokesperson for the government agency behind the system, known as the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, said the clearing company had been “working closely with the market to formulate the framework and rules of the clearing system” and that preparatory work had entered its final stage.

Eleven banks are on the board of the Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company. Some of these lenders will become clearing banks from the launch, whereas others will take longer to build up their bullion capacity. While Hong Kong plans to start by using the London Good Delivery standard, its future plans are still to be decided, the people said.

In Singapore, the clearing system will be aligned with the London Good Delivery framework for large bars, as well as delivery and settlement standards for kilobars adopted by major exchanges in Chicago and Shanghai.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 18:50

Ron Paul: Trump's Attempt To End The Iran War Infuriates The Uniparty

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 22:25:00 +0000

Ron Paul: Trump's Attempt To End The Iran War Infuriates The Uniparty

Authored by Ron Paul

Against the odds, the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran appears to be holding, after threats and counter-threats. It may collapse, but it has survived a first round of talks between the two sides in Switzerland over the weekend.

President Trump started a war on Iran against all sober guidance and in violation of the US Constitution's requirement that only Congress can declare war. There must be a reckoning for our elected leaders who violate their oath of office, the Constitution, and simple common sense.

However, what is more telling is the reaction when President Trump finally took the correct move and attempted to end the war. The neocons who had hailed him as a great leader – Levin, Bolton, Pompeo, etc. – suddenly turned against him when he turned against further escalation of the war.

via CNN

Even Trump’s top funder, Miriam Adelson, attacked Trump in her newspaper Israel Hayom. "You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed," the newspaper wrote in an editorial.

Not much gratitude from the Israel-first crowd, even if the war was started to benefit Israel.

And more telling even than this was the reaction of the "opposition" party in Congress, the Democrats. They attacked him harder for ending – or at least pausing – the war more than for starting the war in the first place!

Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) called the MOU a "capitulation." Sen Chris Murphy (D-CT) called the MOU an "embarrassing document." Sen. Amy Klobuchar falsely claimed that President Trump was paying Iran $300 billion to re-open Hormuz.

This is more evidence – as if any is needed – that our foreign policy is run by the "uniparty." When it comes to wars, there is no Republican Party nor is there a Democratic Party. There is only the "yes!" party.

Congress remains silent in the run-up to war. Congress remains silent when the President launches a war. Congress even remains silent when the war begins going badly. It is only on those rare occasions that a president takes steps to correct his mistake that Congress finds its voice.

Yes, there is plenty to criticize. After weekend talks, the US side, led by Vice President JD Vance, is celebrating as a "breakthrough" that the Strait of Hormuz is open again and that Iran has reportedly agreed to the return of UN inspectors. But the Strait was open before this war and UN inspectors were in Iran before President Trump unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA "Iran Deal" in his first term.

The only difference now is that we burned through likely several hundred billion dollars, we lost dozens of aircraft and other military equipment, and we likely lost more service members than the Pentagon is admitting.

It is a reminder of why the Founders intended to make sure that any war must be declared by the people’' Representatives before the first bullet is shot: it should be very hard to launch wars.

Nevertheless, those who are truly against the wars should, in my opinion, hold their fire for the time being in hope that a lasting resolution can be found. The President is being attacked from all sides by the war party. Now may not be the best time for the peace party to join in.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 18:25

JD CEO Warns 700,000 Delivery Workers Will Be Replaced By Robots "Sooner Or Later"

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 22:00:00 +0000

JD CEO Warns 700,000 Delivery Workers Will Be Replaced By Robots "Sooner Or Later"

The founder of China's largest e-commerce and logistics companies fired off a warning shot to hundreds of thousands of delivery workers that the rise of automation and AI adoption in the last-mile will result in hundreds of thousands of job losses "sooner or later."

Richard Liu, founder and chair of JD.com, told the audience at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Forum in Beijing on Sunday, according to the Financial Times, that 700,000 delivery workers will be replaced by robots "sooner or later."

"In the future, when robots are delivering parcels, sooner or later, there will be a day when couriers are basically no longer needed," Liu said, adding, "It will definitely be robots delivering parcels. But I really do not want our 700,000 brothers to go without meals, without jobs."

Liu's timeline for the robotic takeover of last-mile delivery was vague and uncertain, but a number of robot delivery companies are already in pilot programs or commercialization across major Chinese cities.

He said JD has signed deals with 120 schools to retrain couriers for roles such as robot maintenance and repair, noting that the rise of robots will require new technical jobs.

Liu elaborated on the shift of some couriers into robot repair jobs, saying "robots are machinery . . . they will always, at some point, have faults."

His comments come as China's gig economy continues to expand, with temporary and blue-collar platform workers expected to reach 320 million this year, or about 40% of urban employment. At the same time, youth unemployment remains elevated, raising concerns that robotics and AI could squeeze both blue-collar and white-collar workers.

The pace at which China adopts automation across its economy should outpace the U.S., given that development is happening at hyperspeed and many of the world's robotics supply chains are based in the world's second-largest economy.

You were promised robots that take the night shift.

The pitch writes itself. Machines that never tire, never quit, never ask for a raise. The end of human labor as we know it.
Here's what the money actually bought.

Figure is worth $39 billion. It has 40 robots loading parts at… pic.twitter.com/eeLXjHKp82
— Rand Group (@randgroup) June 22, 2026

Earlier this month, Barclays internet equity analyst Ross Sandler published a note titled "Autonomous Food Delivery Likely Hits Critical Mass By 2030," outlining how automation in last-mile delivery could push delivery costs down to as little as $1 per order in the US.

"The promise of autonomous food delivery is still a few years out, but showing very positive signals in markets that have been quick to embrace it. AVs should reduce the cost of delivery for both marketplaces (currently $8-$10 per order) and for consumers (tipping, $5 per order) down to as low as $1 per order," Sandler wrote in the note.

He continued, "As witnessed already in select APAC geos with low delivery costs, when this kind of improvement happens to the cost curve, consumer adoption should go through the roof. China's online food delivery penetration is 40% of orders in tier one cities, well ahead of the US, with cost being the biggest delta."

"UBER and DASH have a number of strategies in place in both SDR (sidewalk delivery robotics) and drones, but claim that these efforts are not likely to hit a material percentage of orders until 2030 and beyond."

The analyst sees "sidewalk delivery robots as the nearer-term opportunity. Current costs are around $5 to $7 per drop, but could fall toward $1 over time as utilization improves. Drones offer faster delivery and a larger "wow" factor, but regulatory hurdles, battery limitations and airspace approvals make the path more complicated."

A recent UBS note on forecasts for global shipments of humanoid robots suggests the surge will begin later this year or next and really erupt in the 2030s.

There was also news earlier that Nvidia is pushing to develop software and chips to improve humanoid robot safety and enable closer human interaction, including physical collaboration in workplaces.

First signs:

$150 Humanoid Robot House Cleaning Service Threatens To Undercut Maid Services

The next evolution of AI is robotics, displacing blue-collar jobs in the physical world. We suspect the adoption rate will be much slower in the U.S. than in China because supply chains are not as robust in the West. But for workers in jobs that can be easily replaced by robots, such as last-mile delivery or production-line work, it may be time to find a construction job as the historic data center buildout progresses.

Blue-collar or white-collar, no one is safe from the AI revolution, as Goldman analysts revealed the top 20 college degrees most exposed to AI job disruption (read here).

We suspect that, just like data center buildouts and localized resistance, there will be public uproar when jobs are eliminated by robots later this decade.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 18:00

"F**k Around And Find Out": Philly DA's Campaign Slogan Comes Back To Bite Him

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 21:40:00 +0000

"F**k Around And Find Out": Philly DA's Campaign Slogan Comes Back To Bite Him

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

District Attorney Larry Krasner is something of a bargain for Philadelphia. According to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, he has not only been serving as the city’s prosecutor but effectively as its top public defender.

Krasner’s record is the subject of a scathing new opinion, which accuses him of leading a dishonest effort to undermine major criminal cases to engineer new trials for defendants.

Krasner has long cultivated a reputation as the champion of the left. We were both liberal students in the same class at the University of Chicago. While I moved to the political center, Krasner moved even more dramatically to the far left. Funded by George Soros as part of his campaign to elect social justice warriors as prosecutors, Krasner has used his office to threaten to arrest FBI agents and to “hunt down” ICE officers, to the delight of the far left.

The chest-pounding has not resulted in any such roundups, but the press remains good for Krasner in cultivating his image as the avenging angel of the perpetually enraged.

That is why the recent opinion from Pennsylvania’s Democratic-controlled Supreme Court was so surprising. It appears that even these liberal justices have had enough.

In Commonwealth v. Brown, Justice Kevin Dougherty (joined by Justices Sallie Updyke Mundy, Kevin Brobson, and Daniel McCaffery) denounced Krasner and his office for a pattern of misleading and mendacious filings to undermine the criminal cases of murderers and other convicts.

These defendants filed for relief under Pennsylvania’s Post Conviction Relief Act.

The Act allowed for an adversarial process to determine whether defendants should receive new trials. However, the district attorney’s office routinely abandoned the field, leaving defendants essentially unopposed in their demands.

The Supreme Court wrote that such concessions robbed the public of “the benefits of opposing advocacy.”

It went even further in alluding to Krasner’s possible political and ideological motivations in pandering to the far left.

“When relief is not dictated by the record and law but merely advocated for personal, political, ideological, policy, or other non-legal reasons, a prosecutor’s concession does not minister justice,” the opinion states.

“It facilitates injustice.”

Then came the haymaker — a finding that Krasner’s concession was “not reliable” and that Krasner’s office had “violated its duty of candor,” “withheld material evidence from the court, opposed efforts by amici to gain access to this evidence, submitted a false stipulation of fact, misstated facts in its pleadings, failed to conduct a reasonable investigation, and opposed a required evidentiary hearing.” In this case, the justices wrote, the “predictable result was the erroneous grant of a new trial.”

The justices cited a pattern by which, since 2018, his office has conceded relief in roughly 100 murder cases like the one at issue. It found that his office engaged in “numerous instances of untrustworthy concessions, lack of candor, misrepresentations of fact, lack of adequate investigation, and avoidance of hearings. And the problems are poised to continue.”

The justices were clearly alarmed because there are more than a thousand cases still in the pipeline, and Krasner’s office is expected to continue what they called “its checkered concession program.”

To give you an idea of the cases where Krasner’s office struggled to undo the conviction of murderers, consider the facts of the 1984 case of Robert Wharton. Wharton was convicted of first-degree murder and sentenced to death for the 1984 strangulation and drowning deaths of Bradley and Ferne Hart. Wharton was upset about a debt, so he broke into their home, killed the Harts, and then turned off the heat, leaving their seven-month-old baby, Lisa, to freeze to death. The baby miraculously survived.

The court expressly cited Krasner’s prosecutors for making misrepresentations to the court. That included the claim by Krasner’s office that the family of the victims had bizarrely favored undoing the conviction. It was later discovered that Krasner’s staff had consulted only one relative, who was not the couple’s surviving daughter. The daughter, in fact, vehemently and understandably opposed the move. Krasner was ordered to write apology letters to the family.

Ultimately, the actions of Krasner’s office were so outrageous in this case that a panel of judges disbarred his supervisor for repeatedly lying in an effort to overturn the conviction. Krasner’s subordinate, Nancy Winkelman, was also barred from handling cases before the court for three years.

In response, Krasner did what he always does: He suggested that the criticism furthered racism and threatened democracy. He declared that the criticism of his office “undermines the value of a vote in Philadelphia” and defended his staff as merely furthering the work of racial justice: “On the eve of Juneteenth, we should all remember that reform is necessary in every era. And that those who bring needed reform sometimes are made to pay a price.”

This is vintage Krasner. His office was found to be both dishonest and negligent, but the district attorney cites his own misconduct as proof that his office is fighting hard for racial justice.

It did not matter that in 2021 a court admonished Krasner for creating what amounted to an unconstitutional blacklist of police officers whom he would not call as witnesses, even if their testimony was required to convict a criminal.

It did not matter that Krasner was admonished by a state Supreme Court justice in 2022 for abusing the grand jury process in an unhinged effort to charge a police officer with a crime.

Krasner feeds a rage addiction with uncut, pure criminal justice crack. It is a formula that has served him well with the media and the voters. Like Atlanta’s Fani Willis, he actually turns court sanctions into a badge of honor with voters who distrust the police and the criminal justice system.

In fact, the more the courts condemn him, the more he suggests that the criticism is just evidence of a prejudiced, unjust legal system.

None of this comes as a surprise for a candidate who expressly adopted “F— around and find out:” as his 2025 reelection slogan. But courts are finding out a bit too much about how Krasner himself has been … well … messing around with the legal system.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 17:40

"I Want Guns": Bill Maher Blasts California's "Ridiculous" Self-Defense Laws

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 21:20:00 +0000

"I Want Guns": Bill Maher Blasts California's "Ridiculous" Self-Defense Laws

Bill Maher just cornered California Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna when he admitted he 'wants a gun,' - but that it makes "no sense" to own one in California because "you might be the one to go to jail" for using it.

Khanna's answer was some grade-A bullshit. As The Vigilant Fox notes:

Bill Maher confronts Ro Khanna over California's "ridiculous" gun laws.

Maher caught Khanna off guard when he revealed he wanted a gun — but complained it makes "no sense" to own one in California, because "you might be the one to go to jail" for using it.

Khanna tried to sound... pic.twitter.com/cf0nmkcINf
— The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) June 20, 2026

MAHER: "What does the panel think of the Supreme Court ruling that habitual marijuana users can't be banned from owning guns? Now you have my attention... That's awesome. That's fair. I want guns and I can't have them because I don't, because it's illegal."

KHANNA: "You don't strike me as a gun guy. You would want guns?"

MAHER: "Of course!"

KHANNA: "Okay, I didn't know that."

MAHER: "Why wouldn't you want a gun?"

KHANNA: "I don't know. I mean, I don't have a gun, but I mean, I respect the Second Amendment. I just, I wouldn't have thought that you had guns."

MAHER: "I mean, I don't because of that! But yes. I mean, I can't expect the police to be everywhere like that... And of course, another complaint I would have about California is it almost makes no sense to have one because you almost can't use it! Because if you do, you might be the one to go to jail. I mean, you can shoot an intruder in your house, but you better do it exactly right. He better be in your bedroom facing you... You shoot him on the lawn, you're going to go to jail. I mean, that's kind of ridiculous, isn't it?"

KHANNA: "I'm for investing in police. I'm for having public safety. I don't think the answer to crime should be everyone takes justice into their own hands."

MAHER: "Even if there's somebody in your house?!"

KHANNA: "Well, of course, if they're in the house. Self-defense."

MAHER: "Well, that's what we're talking about."

KHANNA: "Yeah, but... there are cases where people have taken the law in their own hands, shot folks who are innocent."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 17:20

When Will Gasoline Prices Return To Pre-War Levels?

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 21:00:00 +0000

When Will Gasoline Prices Return To Pre-War Levels?

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

Oil futures have quickly priced in a favorable outcome from U.S.-Iran diplomacy, but physical oil flows, shipping networks, and refinery supply chains take much longer to normalize.
Low global inventories and the need to replenish strategic and commercial stockpiles could create significant demand for crude even after supply disruptions ease.
Gasoline prices are influenced by refining capacity, inventories, distribution costs, and seasonal demand, meaning pump prices may remain elevated even if crude oil continues to fall.

Gasoline prices have started to fall, and that is welcome news for drivers. After months of pain at the pump following the war with Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even modest relief is noticeable.

But falling from crisis levels is not the same thing as returning to normal.

That distinction may define the next several months in the oil market. The developing U.S.-Iran agreement has given traders a reason to mark down crude prices. Markets are forward-looking, and they have quickly priced in a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Gulf exports resume, and the energy shock that pushed gasoline prices sharply higher begins to fade.

That may ultimately prove correct. But the physical oil market does not move as quickly as futures prices. Tanker routes, insurance markets, shipping backlogs, refinery crude slates, and depleted inventories all take time to normalize. Even if the diplomatic framework holds, the path back to pre-war gasoline prices is likely to be slower and more uneven than the recent drop in crude prices might suggest.

Prices Are Falling, But From Very High Levels

The national average gasoline price had climbed from under $3 a gallon before the conflict to more than $4 during the spring. Over the past three months, gasoline prices were more than $1 a gallon above pre-war levels, with consumers facing the combined effect of higher crude oil prices, refinery disruptions, and seasonal fuel demand.

That is why recent declines can be both real and incomplete. A drop from $4.50 to $4.05 is meaningful. It helps household budgets and eases some inflation pressure. But it still leaves gasoline far above where it was before the conflict began.

This is where the public conversation can become misleading. If prices fall for several weeks, some will argue that the oil shock is over. But the relevant question is not whether gasoline prices can come down from their highs. They already have. The better question is whether they can quickly return to pre-war levels.

That is a very different question.

Futures Markets Move Faster Than Tankers

Oil prices react immediately to headlines. A reported ceasefire, a diplomatic framework, or a sign that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen can move crude futures within minutes. That is exactly what happened as traders began to discount a lower geopolitical risk premium.

But moving physical barrels is different.

The Strait of Hormuz is the most important energy chokepoint in the world, and months of disruption cannot be unwound with a press release. Ships that were delayed have to be rescheduled. Insurers have to reassess war-risk premiums. Crews and cargo owners need confidence that passage is secure. Ports must deal with congestion. Refiners that changed crude sourcing patterns may not immediately switch back.

That is all important because gasoline prices are tied not only to the price of crude oil, but to the availability of the right crude in the right place at the right time. If refiners are still competing for prompt cargoes, or if logistical constraints keep barrels from flowing smoothly, gasoline prices can remain elevated even as futures markets anticipate relief.

Low Inventories Create A Bullish Backdrop

The bigger issue is inventories. During a major supply disruption, the world does not simply consume less oil and wait patiently for the crisis to end. It draws down inventories. Commercial stocks fall. Strategic reserves may be tapped. Refiners and importers use whatever supply they can secure.

For example, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was already drawn down significantly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has now been further drawn down to its lowest level since 1983.

When the crisis eases, those barrels have to be replaced.

That creates what could be called an inventory trap. Reopening Hormuz is bearish for oil prices because it allows more supply to move. But the need to refill depleted inventories is bullish because it creates additional demand for barrels just as the market is trying to normalize.

In other words, the end of the disruption does not necessarily create an immediate glut. It may instead trigger a period of aggressive restocking.

This is especially important for countries that rely heavily on imports from the Persian Gulf. Many will want to rebuild strategic and commercial inventories before the next geopolitical flare-up. Companies may do the same. If buyers conclude that inventories are too low for comfort, they may bid for barrels even as traders are assuming the crisis premium should disappear.

That restocking demand can put a floor under oil prices.

Gasoline Does Not Track Crude One-For-One

Another reason gasoline may not quickly return to pre-war levels is that crude oil is only one component of the pump price. It is the biggest component, but not the only one.

Refining margins, distribution costs, taxes, seasonal fuel specifications, regional supply constraints, and local inventories are all factors. Gasoline prices often rise quickly when crude spikes, but the decline can be slower when crude falls, particularly when refiners are still dealing with tight supply or strong demand.

This is also the time of year when gasoline demand tends to be seasonally strong. The summer driving season adds pressure just as the market is trying to recover from a major geopolitical disruption. Even if crude continues to ease, gasoline inventories and refinery utilization will help determine how much relief drivers actually see.

That is why a lower Brent crude price does not automatically mean a quick return to $3 gasoline.

The Market May Be Pricing In A Best-Case Scenario

None of this means gasoline prices cannot keep falling. They can. If the Iran agreement holds, if Hormuz traffic normalizes faster than expected, if inventories rebuild smoothly, and if crude prices continue to decline, drivers should see further relief.

But that is a favorable scenario with many moving parts.

The risk is that markets have already priced in much of the good news. They are assuming that the diplomatic breakthrough translates quickly into normal shipping flows, lower crude prices, lower inflation pressure, and a calmer economic backdrop. That may be too much to assume before the details of the agreement are known and before tanker traffic has returned to normal levels.

There are several ways this could disappoint. The agreement could be delayed. Implementation could be uneven. Shipping insurance could remain expensive. Regional security concerns could persist. Countries could compete aggressively to refill depleted stocks. Any of those factors could slow the decline in oil and gasoline prices.

That does not mean another price spike is inevitable. It simply means the market may have moved from fear to relief faster than the physical system can justify.

The Big Picture

The developing Iran agreement is good news if it reduces the risk of a wider war and allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. It should help bring oil prices down from the extreme levels reached during the conflict. Consumers should welcome that.

But the oil market is not a light switch. Reopening a chokepoint does not instantly refill inventories. It does not immediately clear the tanker backlogs. It does not erase insurance risk. It does not automatically bring gasoline prices back to where they were before the first missiles flew.

The most likely outcome is not that gasoline prices stay at crisis levels forever. It is that the road back to pre-war prices is far slower than many consumers expect.

Gas prices are falling. That part is real. But the bullish backdrop from low inventories, restocking demand, and lingering logistical risk has not disappeared. Until those issues are resolved, the market may struggle to deliver the kind of quick, complete relief that drivers are hoping for.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 17:00

Judge Quashes "Blatantly Unlawful" DOJ Subpoenas Targeting Walz And Ellison In ICE-Obstruction Case

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:40:00 +0000

Judge Quashes "Blatantly Unlawful" DOJ Subpoenas Targeting Walz And Ellison In ICE-Obstruction Case

A federal judge has quashed six DOJ grand jury subpoenas issued to Minnesota officials, including Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her and officials in Ramsey and Hennepin counties.

US District Judge Patrick J. Schlitz ruled that the subpoenas amounted to harassment, and said that the Justice Department inquiry into whether Minnesota officials obstructed or impeded law enforcement is illegitimate.

"Initiating a criminal investigation in order to harass political opponents or to coerce them into taking official action, particularly official action that the federal government cannot directly require those political opponents to take, is a blatantly unlawful and unethical use [of] the grand-jury process," Schlitz wrote in his ruling.

Tensions between the Trump administration and Minnesota's Democratic leadership came to a boiling point in January amid clashes between federal immigration enforcement officers and protesters in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Area, which included the fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, social justice warriors who paid the ultimate price.

The DOJ told the Epoch Times in an email that "The Department takes the unlawful obstruction of federal law enforcement operations extremely seriously and will continue to act in full compliance with the law to investigate these matters."

Walz hit back in a statement, saying "The U.S. Justice Department is pursuing criminal investigations into the President’s political opponents.

"This case was just one example of that, but we are seeing daily reminders of this administration’s lawlessness—in Minnesota and around the country. We all must continue to seek justice and uphold the law."

Looks like we'll never get to the bottom of this...

🚨REPORT: Minnesota anti-ICE Signal group leader has been identified as Amanda Koehler, a ‘protest’ organizer & campaign strategist for Tim Walz. https://t.co/CeBLKfHJfa
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) January 24, 2026

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 16:40

Slouching Toward Peace With Washington In Good-Cop/Bad-Cop Mode

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:20:00 +0000

Slouching Toward Peace With Washington In Good-Cop/Bad-Cop Mode

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

". . .They are running the Accords logic to its conclusion: every adversary becomes a counterparty, every conflict becomes a deal, every closed economy becomes an investable market."

- Patrick Wood

That squawking you hear is Iran getting dragged kicking and screaming out of its jihad delirium into something that might look like reality-based relations with the rest of the world. They have to loudly declare that it’s not happening, even as it’s happening, to gaslight their own home folks, who might be getting a little sick of economic free-fall — and probably sick of the IRGC regime itself. And, of course, they know that the Lefty-left half of the USA is rooting for this whole business to fail so they can get their mitts back on the levers of power to avoid prison.

Things are at a pretty pass, all righty. The sticking point of the moment is Lebanon. Everybody is twanging on Israel to quit fighting Hezbollah. Okay, but does Hezbollah not have some obligation to quit its provocations? And is Iran, which controls Hezbollah, not responsibile to make Hezbollah stop?

Notice, you don’t hear any of the kibitzers calling for that. That’s because getting Hezbollah to poke Israel in the eye with a sharp stick is Iran’s favored device for dragging out negotiations which, they apparently hope, will put POTUS in fear of the looming midterm election. But time is running out on their playing for time. What they’re actually playing is pretend — pretending to be living large and in-charge. They’ve got nothing else, really. They’ve driven their country into a ditch.

The US is in a straight-up good-cop / bad-cop mode. VP Vance, on-the-ground in Switzerland, presents the very picture of a smooth, cool, rational figure where it counts: face-to-face with Iranian leaders, after all these years. He calmly tells the world news media that “encouraging progress” has been made the first day toward a ceasefire in poor, sore-beset Lebanon. As of Monday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi concurred on “X.”

Meanwhile, President Trump was going mad-dog on social media. Of his relations with irksome Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu, POTUS said, “It’s good, but we have to keep him a little bit sane.” He added, “Iran must stop their highly-paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again. . . bomb the shit out of them.” He advised the Iranian negotiators that they “won’t even make if back” to their country if they keep playing games, and declared that the US will take over the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary. A bit harsh, admittedly. Any trouble parsing it out?

Ghastly as all that might sound, the American negotiating position offers as much carrot as stick. Patrick Wood laid it out nicely in this Substack post. It’s about rearranging the economic “architecture” of the region and, by extension, the rest of the world, which requires a stable, reliable, not-insane Iran and a peaceful Persian Gulf to sustain advanced civilization. The Abraham Accords are designed to induce all the players in the Middle East to act as sovereign nations conscious of, and seeking, their economic best interests — not blocs acting-out large-scale gang warfare based on age-old revenge scenarios. We are simply asking Iran to accept re-integration into real world of transactional nations by joining in the Abraham Accords.

It’s to no one’s benefit for Iran to become a failed state, and that’s what Iran’s leadership is flirting with as they bluster and thwart the peace process. Don’t forget, their clock is ticking, too, maybe even louder than America’s midterm election clock. There’s evidence that the over-full storage capacity for their oil has already caused damage to their oil wells — because shutting down wells degrades the geology of the underlying oil-bearing rock. Inflation has gone wild inside the country, estimated around 70-percent. Iran’s aquifers have lost 90-percent of their water volume as a years-long draught drags on. Iran has to import around 30-percent of its food. Do you suppose these conditions might make everyday life pretty uncomfortable for the Iranian people?

As of Monday morning, VP Vance reported that talks have moved on to the nuclear material question: Iran agreed to offer access to nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog. They likewise agreed to establish “coordinating mechanisms” aimed at clearing remaining mines from the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire in Lebanon. That looks like actual progress. This was never going to be easy. Expect more bumps on the road. Iran was so far-gone and for such a long time. Show a little patience.

Also, meanwhile, some real fabulous news as Keir Starmer has opted to vacate 10 Downing Street. Good career move! He’s nearly wrecked what’s left of his country. Nobody knows yet who the Labour Party might shove in to replace him, but it’s sure to be another short-timer because the party itself is burnt toast, based on its overwhelming loss in recent local council elections.

Starmer was in office for just over two years. His predecessor Rishi Sunak also lasted less than two years and, before him, PM Liz Truss (remember her?) was gone after 50 days. Procedural rigmarole might drag out the process to replace Starmer until September, when Parliament returns from its summer recess. “Old Blighty,” as the natives sometimes call the UK, is an exceedingly troubled place. With Starmer lingering in office as the lamest of lame ducks, it’s going to be a long summer, and possibly a hot one.

Equally worrisome, at this fraught moment, are the EU’s efforts to start World War Three with Russia. The EU was behind the massive drone attacks against Moscow last week. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, announced plans for “massive group strikes” on Ukrainian targets on a regular basis. Getting spicey over there. All of this is a smokescreen to conceal the political death throes of virtually all the EU member-nation’s leaders — the feckless Merz in Germany, the wobbling Macron in France, the commie PM Pedro Sánchez in Spain, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy, who double-crossed her voters on ending illegal immigration.

Europe’s got nothing. . . but trouble ahead.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 16:20

Definium Soars As Much As 50% After LSD-Based Depression Drug Meets Late-Stage Clinical Trial Goal

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:45:00 +0000

Definium Soars As Much As 50% After LSD-Based Depression Drug Meets Late-Stage Clinical Trial Goal

Definium Therapeutics shares surged as much as 54% on Monday, reaching $37.90 in morning trading as investors reacted positively to developments in the biotech company's research pipeline and potential strategic opportunities.

Definium Therapeutics said its LSD-based depression drug, DT120, met the main goal of a mid-stage trial, reducing depression scores by 8.1 points more than placebo after six weeks, according to Reuters.

Patients showed improvement within one week after a single dose, with benefits remaining at 12 weeks. Analysts had said a 4–5 point placebo-adjusted improvement would be a strong result.

DT120, a psychedelic that activates serotonin receptors, was generally well tolerated, with mostly mild side effects occurring on dosing day and no serious safety concerns.

The trial included 149 adults with major depressive disorder, a condition affecting about 21 million U.S. adults. Recent U.S. policy has also encouraged faster development of psychedelic-based mental health treatments.

We noted back in April that psychedelic stocks were going "mainstream", pointing them out as one of the more interesting policy-driven biotech themes, arguing that a supportive regulatory backdrop could become a meaningful catalyst for the sector.

Since then, momentum has accelerated. The FDA unveiled new measures to speed research into psychedelic treatments for serious mental health conditions, while President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to expand access to promising emerging therapies. The moves could accelerate development timelines for treatments targeting depression, PTSD, addiction, and other difficult-to-treat disorders.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 15:45

Nadella's Hedge: Microsoft Wants To Make AI Models Cheap - Then Own The Rails They Run On

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:05:00 +0000

Nadella's Hedge: Microsoft Wants To Make AI Models Cheap - Then Own The Rails They Run On

The entire AI capital cycle - roughly $700 billion in hyperscaler capex this year, an estimated $2 trillion-plus through 2028 - is collateralized by one belief: that intelligence is scarce, and therefore priceable. That belief is already under strain. Per-token inference prices have fallen on the order of 200× in a year, and the only thing holding revenue up is volume; the cost of intelligence is dropping even as the cost of deploying it climbs. Hyperscaler free cash flow is rolling over. The Fed has named AI capital spending a systemic risk.

And after falling behind in the race to build the best AI, Microsoft is setting up for a massive hedge. The company is on track to spend north of $120 billion this fiscal year - most of it on GPUs and the data centers that house them, $37.5 billion in a single quarter alone, pushing free cash flow negative for the first time in a generation. That is a company betting intelligence is scarce. Yet to the Wall Street Journal last week, Nadella argued the opposite is coming - that intelligence is about to get cheap. The tell isn't a contradiction. It's a hedge: if you can't win the race to build the best model, you make the model worthless and own the road it runs on.

Microsoft is already executing on the hedge. In the weeks surrounding the interview, the company rolled out a new wave of lower-cost models and made Copilot Cowork generally available worldwide - an autonomous agent designed for long-running tasks that lets users (or the system) dynamically route work across multiple models, explicitly including cheaper options. Axios reported that Microsoft is also actively weighing whether to host a version of DeepSeek, the ultralow-cost Chinese model, directly inside Azure for Copilot customers. The model would be optional for users, fully hosted on Microsoft’s infrastructure, and wrapped in the company’s enterprise security, compliance, and data-residency controls.

These aren't side-quests, they are the product-level proof of the thesis: make intelligence abundant and interchangeable while keeping the customer, the data, and the workflow inside Microsoft’s perimeter.

Nadella believes intelligence is about to become abundant, interchangeable, and cheap, as a wave of agents routes work to the lowest bidder. And as the cost per unit of intelligence plummets, he wants Microsoft to own the rails it runs on.

Illustrative. Trend directions are schematic; the figures are point estimates drawn from 2026 hyperscaler capex guidance (~$700B) and reported per-token inference-price declines (~200× per year). Not a fitted data series.

In an interview last week with the Wall Street Journal, Nadella suggested that pitchforks would come out if just a few concentrated AI companies dominate the space, while using massive amounts of energy to do so.

"You can’t say, hey, all white-collar jobs are gone and this could even be a weapon and we will use all the power to build data centers," he told the outlet, adding that the public wouldn't tolerate just a few models and companies "doing all of the learning for the world."

It's a clean argument. It's also the argument of a company under federal antitrust scrutiny, repositioning as the people's champion right before the regulators arrive. The civic case and the competitive case happen to point the same direction.

So it appears Microsoft has concluded it cannot win the model layer on raw capability. Instead, it intends to make that layer less decisive and relocate the moat to the layers it already owns. In Nadella’s framing, models become interchangeable commodities - “all hill-climbing inside a machine you control.” That machine is Azure + AI Foundry, the orchestration layer that decides which model (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, open-source, or future Microsoft fine-tunes) handles which task at what price. Copilot becomes the persistent agentic interface that keeps the customer relationship. The real scarcity, and therefore the real moat, is the proprietary enterprise data and existing workflows that already live inside Microsoft 365, Dynamics, GitHub, and the company’s security and compliance boundary. Customers get the benefit of the cheapest or best model for the job without ever leaving Microsoft’s control plane or handing their data to a frontier lab. In short: as the model layer commoditizes, whoever owns the data gravity and the distribution layer gets to drink everyone else’s milkshake.

If Nadella is even directionally correct, the entire $700 billion-plus annual hyperscaler capex cycle - and the $2 trillion-plus cumulative spend projected through 2028 - faces a major structural problem. Per-token inference prices are collapsing far faster than volume is rising for many workloads. Free cash flow at the big spenders is already rolling over. The only way the math works is if intelligence becomes so cheap and abundant that total usage explodes, or if the hyperscalers successfully migrate margin upstream into orchestration, agent routing, fine-tuning on proprietary data, and enterprise distribution.

Microsoft is placing its bet on the second path. By pushing models toward commodity status while locking customers into Azure orchestration, Copilot agents, and their existing data estates, the company is trying to turn the very price collapse that threatens the capex thesis into a competitive advantage. The companies that spent the last two years preaching scarcity and hoarding frontier capability may discover they have built extremely expensive infrastructure whose primary output - raw intelligence - is rapidly losing pricing power.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 15:05

The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet A Hawkish Fed

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 18:45:00 +0000

The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet A Hawkish Fed

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks. The whole market technical backdrop points higher into July. But Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair just put a rate HIKE back on the table, and that quietly changes the math underneath every one of those flows.

I want to give credit where it’s due. Scott Rubner, the chief equity and derivatives strategist at Citadel Securities, laid out the mechanical case in a note last week, and I agree with most of his map.1 Citadel sees about 35% of all US retail order flow, so when they describe positioning, I listen. The disagreement isn’t about the flows. It’s about what got armed underneath them on Wednesday afternoon.

The Setup: Two Weeks of Pure Mechanics

Three events are stacked on top of each other. First, Thursday’s quadruple witching, pulled forward a day because of the Juneteenth holiday, cleared roughly $8.3 trillion of US options exposure, about 28% of all listed open interest, and the biggest expiration ever recorded.1 That event strips a mountain of dealer gamma out of the market, which is the technical way of saying price gets less anchored and more sensitive to whatever flow shows up next. That’s the first piece of the technical backdrop heading into quarter-end.

Secondly, we are heading into the end of the second quarter. With the large surge in the financial markets, any allocation-based fund managers are now overweight equities and underweight bonds. As shown, the top 100 US pension funds are now roughly 110% funded, their healthiest position since 2001.1

The reason that is important is that funded plans don’t press their luck; they de-risk. As noted, the “out of balance” mechanic suggests a risk of mechanical selling of equities and buying of bonds into the month-end. Any weakness that the “rebalancing” mechanic creates is a flow story, not a fundamental one. However, on July 1, that negative flow flips the switch the other way. Retirement contributions, target-date funds, passive allocations, and systematic strategies all reload at once.

The scale of that reload is the part worth sitting with. ETFs have already pulled in more than $1 trillion this year, running about 45% ahead of last year’s record pace.1 The average full year of ETF inflows through 2024 ran near $490 billion.

Read that again. Investors have committed twice as much as a normal year’s worth of money in under six months, and a growing slice of it is mechanical.

The Technical Backdrop Beneath the Headlines

Before we argue about flows, let’s anchor the technical backdrop in the actual price. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,420 after Warsh’s debut knocked 1.21% off the index, then rebounded roughly 1.2% Thursday to near 7,505 ahead of the long weekend.2,3 Even after the Fed scare, the index sits about 2% above its 50-day average, nearly 8% above its 200-day, and only a couple of percent under the all-time high it set this month at 7,620. The spring low of 6,344 is now seventeen percent below us.

That last point matters. As of Wednesday, only about 58% of S&P 500 members were trading above their own 50-day average.4 Healthy advances usually carry 70% to 80% of the index along for the ride. This one keeps making highs on the backs of a shrinking list of names. The index looks strong. The average stock inside it looks tired.

I won’t pretend the demand picture is anything but strong. Retail activity broke records in May and has pushed higher in June, with nine of the ten busiest retail trading days ever landing inside the last month.1 Corporations have authorized north of $925 billion in buybacks this year, the fastest pace on record through mid-year, and technology plus financials make up roughly 57% of it.1 When retail, passive, and the buyback machine all lean in the same direction, fighting that tape has been a losing game.

Here’s the problem buried inside the good news, and it’s the part of the technical backdrop that worries me most. All three of those buyers funnel into the same handful of stocks. Roughly 18 cents of every S&P dollar now chases semiconductors, 33 cents lands in the Magnificent 7, and close to 40 cents flows into the ten largest holdings.1 Leveraged ETFs have compounded it. Their assets hit a record $218 billion, up about 60% since the end of March, with semiconductor-linked leverage nearly tripling.1

Here’s Where I Part Ways With the Flow Note

Rubner’s call is that the path of least resistance stays higher into the back half of the year. On the mechanics alone, I’d struggle to argue with him. The seasonal record is genuinely strong, too. Since 1928, the S&P has risen 69% of the time in the first half of July, and the Nasdaq 100 has been positive in 17 of the last 18 years.1

So why am I not all-in on the bull case? Because the note was written one day before, the technical backdrop beneath it changed. The entire dip-buying reflex that Citadel documents rests on an unspoken belief that the Fed has investors’ backs. On Wednesday, Kevin Warsh quietly took that belief away. The committee held at 3.75%, but half the FOMC penciled in at least one rate increase this year, the easing bias vanished from the statement, and the S&P booked its worst first “Fed day” for a new chair since 1994.2,5 The ten-year yield jumped back toward 4.5%.3

Make no mistake about what that does to the math. Citadel’s own data shows the buy-the-dip behavior holds until the VIX climbs above 30. Today it’s nearly 17. That sounds reassuring. It isn’t. A 17 reading isn’t safety, it’s complacency, and complacency is precisely the condition Howard Marks warns about when he says the riskiest moment is the one that feels least risky. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 reminds us, when everyone agrees on the outcome, something else tends to happen.

And remember Farrell’s Rule #4: exponential moves go further than anyone expects, but they don’t resolve by going sideways. A market that runs on flows, leverage, and a shrinking group of leaders can absolutely melt up into July. It can also reverse hard the moment those same mechanical buyers turn into sellers. I’ve been writing for weeks that this is a tape driven by positioning more than fundamentals, and I covered the record retail ETF flows in a recent Daily Market Commentary. Strong flows are bullish until the catalyst arrives that makes them stop.

What the Technical Backdrop Means For Your Portfolio

None of this is a reason to sell everything and hide. It’s a reason to participate with discipline rather than abandon. The seasonal and flow tailwinds are real, and fighting them outright has cost investors dearly. We stay invested. But this is a tape to manage, not to chase.

In our portfolio models, we haven’t pressed our most extended winners, but trimmed the most stretched exposure back toward target weight. We also added to our defensive names and let our cash buffer continue to ride for now. As such, we keep participating without betting the account on a melt-up that depends on the Fed staying friendly. That’s the trade-off worth naming out loud. Carrying a little cash caps your upside if the market runs another leg. It also hands you dry powder if quarter-end selling or a Warsh follow-through gives you a better entry. I’ll take that asymmetry here.

Watch three things into the new quarter.

The VIX. A move toward 30 is the level where, by Citadel’s own work, the reflexive dip-buyers go quiet.
Breadth. If the percentage of stocks above their 50-day keeps fading while the index grinds higher, the divergence usually resolves the wrong way.
Lastly, watch the long end of the curve. If Warsh’s signal keeps the ten-year climbing, the most expensive, most crowded, most rate-sensitive corner of this market, the same one soaking up forty cents of every dollar, is the corner that pays for it first.

The technical backdrop and the flows point higher into July. I won’t fight that into the new allocation cycle, but a tripwire just got armed underneath the whole thing. As such, the smart move is to keep one hand on the risk dial while you collect the seasonal tailwind.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:45

Another Ukrainian Drone Wave On Moscow Temporarily Shuts Down All Four Capital Airports

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 18:25:00 +0000

Another Ukrainian Drone Wave On Moscow Temporarily Shuts Down All Four Capital Airports

Yet another major Ukrainian drone attack wave on Moscow has shut down all regional airports, and sent parts of the capital city into temporary panic, and involved dozens of drones shot down overnight. Over 80 drones were intercepted in the past 24 hours, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced Monday on Telegram.

He didn't offer numbers in terms of casualties or damage, but emergency services were dispatched to several areas, given there was debris fallout and key neighborhoods impacted.

Image source: Astra

Across Russia more broadly, hundreds of drones were reportedly downed overnigh, but most of the attacks seemed concentrated on the Moscow area.

The Moscow Times reports of the Moscow region's four commercial flight hubs, "Civil aviation authorities said operations at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were suspended during the multi-hour attack for safety reasons. The flight restrictions were lifted later in the morning."

Much of the information on strike targets in Russia have come through Telegram and social media channels, and have remained unconfirmed on an official level, but various videos suggest a very large-scale attack.

For example, Sky News reports that "Another post claimed a factory producing electronics for Russian missiles had been struck in Voronezh, more than 100 miles from Ukraine."

All Moscow airports have been closed down due to drone attacks.

There are huge crowds as over 150 flights have been delayed or canceled. pic.twitter.com/lbngWIsBbw
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 22, 2026

Meanwhile, Ukraine has also suffered significant damage and losses - including reports that a Russian drone killed three members of one family, among the victims ⁠a 13-year-old boy, in ⁠Ukraine’s northern Sumy ‌region, as cited in Reuters.

President Zelensky commented, "Yet today, Russia began this day not by honoring those who fell in World War II, and not with signals that could help bring the current war – Russia’s war against Ukraine – closer to an end. Instead, it began with more completely unjustifiable killings."

“This Russian war has no justifiable cause. Putin was driven by exactly the same motives as the aggressors who came before him. He shows the same contempt for human life. He is just as delusional about this absurd ‘empire’ of his that nobody needs. This war must be brought to an end.”

Ukraine has been escalating the aerial drone war - seeking to impose a high cost on Russia's industrial and military base - even as it continues to suffer serious manpower shortages along the front lines in the east...

What do you do when you are short of Patriots?
You do this to your enemy’s factory making electronics for ballistic missiles.
Hit the arrow-maker, not the arrow. Voronezh, Russia, today. pic.twitter.com/gqTp5QIMAd
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 22, 2026

Zelensky has also again vowed to bring the war to Russia - and in particular it has been rare massive attacks on Moscow which have been particularly devastating. Key energy sites have continued to be pummeled.

The end of last week saw one of the biggest single drone waves on Moscow, after which Russia has vowed to carry out frequent and "massive group strikes" against Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:25

Nursing School Owner Pleads Guilty After Issuing Nearly 3,000 Fake Diplomas

Tyler Durden — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 18:05:00 +0000

Nursing School Owner Pleads Guilty After Issuing Nearly 3,000 Fake Diplomas

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Carleen Noreus, who owned two nursing schools in South Florida, has pleaded guilty to her role in a scheme that sold nearly 3,000 fraudulent nursing diplomas, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said in a June 18 statement.

A person receives a vaccine in Los Angeles, in this file photograph. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

The defendant, 52, from Plantation, Florida, was president of the Carleen Home Health School Inc. in Plantation and vice president of Carleen Home Health School II Inc. in West Palm Beach.

"Noreus conspired with others to sell fraudulent nursing diplomas and educational transcripts to individuals who had not completed the required coursework or clinical training to earn Registered Nurse (RN), Licensed Practical Nurse/Vocational Nurse (LPN/VN), or Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) credentials," the DOJ said.

"The fraudulent diplomas and transcripts falsely represented that purchasers had successfully completed the academic and clinical requirements of the schools when, in reality, they had not."

The documents allowed the buyers to take part in national nursing board examinations. Those who passed the exams obtained nursing licenses and employment in the healthcare sector.

In total, Noreus provided 2,956 fraudulent nursing diplomas through her two schools between April 17, 2018, and Oct. 8, 2025. Of the individuals who obtained fake credentials, roughly 2,274 passed the nursing exams, secured licenses, and gained employment in Florida and other parts of the United States. Both institutions have been shut down by state authorities.

The case is part of the second phase of Operation Nightingale, a multi-state law enforcement action launched in January 2023 to arrest individuals who sell fraudulent nursing degree diplomas and transcripts.

The operation led to 25 individuals being charged for the fraud scheme in January 2023. In a Jan. 25, 2023, statement, the DOJ said that more than 7,600 fake nursing diplomas were issued by three nursing schools in South Florida.

On Sept. 15, 2025, the DOJ said that 30 defendants were charged and convicted in 2023 as part of the operation. In addition, the department also announced charges against 12 people in phase two of Operation Nightingale.

Thirteen individuals have been charged in the second phase, including Noreus, the DOJ said in its latest statement. Noreus, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy to launder money and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison for each count.

"Nursing licenses must be earned through education, training, and demonstrated competence, not purchased through fraud," said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason A. Reding Quiñones.

"By selling thousands of fraudulent diplomas and transcripts, the defendant undermined the integrity of the nursing profession and our healthcare system. The Southern District of Florida remains committed to holding accountable those who profit by corrupting professional licensing processes and placing the public at risk."

Earlier this year, a Maryland man was sentenced to 21 months in federal prison in another case of nursing credential fraud, according to a DOJ statement issued on April 24.

The person sold fake documents in the name of a Virginia nursing school, which falsely affirmed that buyers had completed the required courses and training at the institution to secure nursing degrees. The individual also sold fraudulent nursing degrees from a Florida-based nursing school.

Nursing Shortage

The country's nursing workforce is projected to face a shortage in the coming years, according to a December 2025 report from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.

"At the national level, there are shortages projected until 2038. Specifically, there is a projected 8 percent shortage of registered nurses (RNs) in 2028. By 2038, the shortage is 3 percent (a shortage of 108,960 full-time equivalent [FTE] RNs)," the report stated.

"Nonmetro areas are projected to have a higher shortage of RNs than metro areas in each of the three interval years: 11 percent vs 2 percent in 2038, 18 percent vs 4 percent in 2033, and 24 percent vs 5 percent in 2028."

However, National Nurses United (NNU), a professional association of registered nurses with over 225,000 members nationwide, dismissed claims of shortages in a May 26 statement.

An analysis conducted by the group found that almost 1.15 million registered nurses in the country with active licenses were not working as nurses, the statement said.

NNU president Jamie Brown said the U.S. nursing sector is facing a "retention crisis" rather than a shortage, blaming "unsafe and unsustainable" working conditions for driving many nurses away from their jobs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 14:05