ZeroHedge News

Walmart Tumbles On Disappointing Guidance, Warns Low-Income Consumers Drowning

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 13:10:00 +0000

Walmart Tumbles On Disappointing Guidance, Warns Low-Income Consumers Drowning

Extending concerns about US consumer weakness - now that the bumper OBBBA tax refund period is over - after yesterday's earnings by Home Depot and Target, this morning Walmart reported Q1 earnings (the last big company to report, rounding out earnings season) and warned that fuel costs are squeezing the company’s bottom line and could lead to higher prices for shoppers.

In the latest quarter, the world’s largest retailer said comparable sales in US stores rose 4.1%, excluding fuel, in the latest quarter, slightly better than the 4.0% Wall Street analysts were expecting. That was the good news; the bad news is that Walmart also forecast adjusted profit for the second quarter that missed analysts’ expectations.

The results show that the company continues to gain market share across income levels with its focus on low prices, fast delivery and wide assortment. But the emphasis on affordability is facing pressure as inflation accelerates and the conflict in Iran drives up fuel prices.

Here is a snapshot of what WMT just reported, starting with the highlights:

Revenue $177.75 billion, +7.3% y/y, beating estimates of $175.06 billion
- Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4.1%, estimate +4%
- Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +3.9%, estimate +3.59%
Adjusted EPS 66c vs. 61c y/y, in line with exp. 66c
Gross margin 24.3%, in line with exp. 24.3%

Going down the line:

Change in US E-Commerce sales +26%, estimate +18.6%
Operating cash flow $4.74 billion, -12% y/y
Adjusted operating income $7.67 billion, estimate $7.69 billion

US e-commerce sales grew 26% during the quarter, fueling growth in the company’s biggest market. Sales of grocery and general merchandise rose mid single-digits. General merchandise, which consists of apparel, electronics and other discretionary items, gained the most share in five years.

Walmart also said that transactions at Walmart US rose 3%, while average ticket was up 1.1%, which means that WMT is still eating much of the input costs and making up for its with traffic. That however, will change very soon as the company revealed in its earnings call.

Walmart reported strong growth in grocery and general merchandise categories; partially offset by 100 bps headwind from maximum fair pricing legislation in pharmacy. Broad-based share gains across categories and income tiers led by upper-income households.

“The high-income consumer is spending with confidence in many categories, whereas the low-income consumer, we can tell, is more budget-conscious, trying to navigate certain financial distress,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said in an interview with Bloomberg News. During the quarter, sales slowed somewhat in April after the Easter holiday. Higher tax refunds likely muted the impact of rising gas prices, though that’s abating, Rainey said. Prices rose 1.2% during the quarter and they could increase further if fuel prices stay where they are, he added, although that would surely lead to reduced traffic.

Translation: if it weren't for upper income consumers, who are forced to trade down to discounters such as Walmart, earnings would have been a disaster.

And nowhere was this more obvious than in the company's guidance, because while Q1 earnings were solid, the reason the stock is selling off sharply in premarket trading is the company's disappointing forecast:

Second quarter forecast:

Sees adjusted EPS 72c to 74c, both below the median estimate of 75c
Sees net sales at constant currencies +4% to +5%
Sees operating income at constant currencies up 7% to 10%

2027 full-year forecast

Still sees adjusted EPS $2.75 to $2.85, below the median estimate $2.92
Still sees net sales at constant currencies +3.5% to +4.5%

Walmart, which is viewed as an economic barometer due to its large size and footprint across the US and other markets, was the latest confirmation that the "lower half" of the K-shaped economy continues to sink, and it is only the upper half (that is increasingly shopping at WalMart) which is keeping the retailer afloat.

While spending has largely held up in recent years, consumers have become increasingly selective with their purchases. Good deals and unique products can still attract buyers.

But the biggest wildcard is that the higher tax refunds this year have given families some extra cash, but this benefit is now fading fast as we explained a month ago. While most prices of general goods haven’t risen as operators move existing inventory, this could change as the war drags on.

There' more: fuel weighed on Walmart’s profit margin in the quarter, as the company absorbed “virtually the entirety” of the increases during the period, Rainey said. The company is prioritizing keeping prices low, with the number of discounts rising 20% from a year ago. That said, Reiney warned of potential higher retail price inflation in Q2 and H2 if the current elevated cost environment persists.

"It’s tough on very short notice to be able to navigate a cost headwind like that,” he said. While Walmart will be able to manage through it, he expects to see an equal or larger challenge related to fuel in the current quarter.

Rainey said that the number of gas gallons customers bought at Walmart stations fell below 10 for first time since 2022; he added that the decline in gas buying is sign of financial stress.

Walmart has consistently posted stronger results than many competitors, raising investors’ expectations and pushing the company's forward PE to an insane 45x, a multiple that will soon get a painful reminder of what happens to multiples during consumer recessions.

Walmart’s cautious narrative echoes commentary from big-box peers Target Corp. and Home Depot which both signaled this week that consumers are staying resilient although purchases are slowing. Kraft Heinz, McDonald’s and other companies have also struck a cautious tone recently. The past year has been a roller coaster for consumer-facing companies, first with President Trump’s expansive, on-off tariffs, that in some cases roiled operations, and now with the ongoing geopolitical conflicts threatening to dampen demand.

The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer has said it seeks to gain market share during challenging economic times by focusing on value and essentials like groceries. Delivery and other online services have expanded Walmart’s base of clients to include wealthier shoppers. Advertising and other businesses are also contributing to profit growth and giving the company more room to further invest in lowering prices and improving store operations.

In particular, fast deliveries have been a growth engine, and the company’s efforts to make inroads into the fashion market are gaining traction. Walmart has also expanded the selection of merchandise on its marketplace of third-party vendors.

The company’s shares tumbled more than 3% in premarket trading in New York. The stock has risen 17% so far this year as of Wednesday’s close. Shares of Walmart’s peers, including Target and Kroger Co., also fell in premarket trading on Thursday.

Full Q1 investor presentation below (pdf link)

q1 Fy27 Earnings Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:10

FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump 'Witch Hunt' Case

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 13:00:00 +0000

FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump 'Witch Hunt' Case

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Justice Department prosecutor Carmen Mercedes Lineberger has been indicted for allegedly removing confidential Justice Department material and then concealing her efforts. Lineberger is accused of secretly transferring Jack Smith’s final report and hiding the material under files labeled “chocolate cake recipe” and “bundt cake recipe.” There has not been a greater recipe for disaster since aides tried to fit all of Biden’s candles on a cake. The case is particularly interesting because there was another person who was accused of a secret removal of Justice Department material who was not prosecuted: former FBI Director James Comey.

Linebarger, 62, of Port St. Lucie, Florida, has been indicted on four criminal charges: one felony count of obstruction of justice, one felony count of concealing government records and two misdemeanor counts of theft of government property valued at less than $1,000.

According to the indictment, Lineberger altered electronic file names of government records to conceal unauthorized transmissions of the documents to her personal email accounts and used file names for cake recipes to conceal her possession of the confidential information.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon blocked the public release of the report after the prosecution collapsed against the President.

The Justice Department alleges that Lineberger received a copy of Smith’s report before the court sealed it. Months later, she allegedly decided to transfer it to her personal email account in violation of the court order and Justice Department rules.

She has now pleaded not guilty and faces up to 20 years on the obstruction charge and other charges.

The decision is notable for a couple of reasons.

First, Smith made one last move in dismissing the case against Trump that left the door open to resuming his prosecution. Smith moved to dismiss the indictment “without prejudice” and then stressed to the court that the Department has previously “noted the possibility that a court might equitably toll the statute of limitations to permit proceeding against the President once out of office.” In other words, Trump could be prosecuted after he leaves office.

It is not known what the motive might have been in this transfer. One possibility would be a type of souvenir or trophy grab, which would be ironic given Smith’s suggestion that Trump may have transferred classified material for that type of possessory thrill. Another is the possible use for a book. Finally, there might have been a desire to preserve evidence to avoid destruction during the Trump years or possible release to the media.

The second notable aspect is that Comey was accused of such a knowing removal, but he was never actually prosecuted.

There was no court order governing the material removed by Comey after his firing, but it was clearly departmental material.

The Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, found that Comey was a leaker and had violated FBI policy in his handling of FBI memos. He found that Comey grabbed the material on his way out of the Bureau, including those containing the “code name and true identity” of a sensitive source.

While he did not find a disclosure of the classified information, Horowitz found that Comey took “the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive investigative information, obtained during the course of FBI employment, to achieve a personally desired outcome.” He further added that Comey “set a dangerous example for the over 35,000 current FBI employees—and the many thousands of more former FBI employees—who similarly have access to or knowledge of non-public information.”

Comey later admitted that he asked his friend, Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman, to leak information from the documents to the New York Times.

While Comey is facing a weak criminal case over threats conveyed through beach shells, some of us saw his conduct in removing this material as a more serious breach.

Comey went on to write books on “ethical leadership” and recently sent a message to current FBI personnel that they should “hang on” and wait out Trump: “In two and a half years, and then we can rebuild.”

Rebuilding the bureau in Comey’s image is a truly chilling notion. Those “good old days” with Comey allowed agents to launch a baseless Russian collusion investigation at the behest of the Clinton campaign and lie to a secret court to secure surveillance of Trump figures.

In the meantime, it will be Lineberger, not Comey, who will face a jury for the removal of confidential material.

For Lineberger, these types of charges tend to be cut-and-dried for prosecutors if they can show that the material was restricted and that she took steps to conceal the alleged theft. While she gained access before the court order, she allegedly transferred the material after the order and then hid the material in files labeled as cake recipes. If those facts can be established in court, prosecutors likely believe that she can stick a fork in herself because she is done.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:00

Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Soar In April

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 12:50:00 +0000

Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Soar In April

On the back of a small uptick in homebuilder confidence (though still languishing)...

...Building Permits jumped notably (+5.8% MoM vs +2.5% exp) in preliminary April data (while Housing Starts dipped 2.8% MoM, though less than the 5.2% MoM decline expected)...

The pace of starts and permits on a SAAR basis has remained flat for four years...

Multi-family unit starts and permits soared in April...

As single-family home starts stagnate...

It appears builders believe that 'Renter Nation' is on its way back.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:50

Foreign Treasury Selling Is Getting Serious

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 12:45:00 +0000

Foreign Treasury Selling Is Getting Serious

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

We already knew that the bond market was starting to call bullshit on America’s fiscal and monetary policy. Now we know that foreign governments are dumping U.S. Treasuries, and China is leading the way…even while President Trump pals around with President Xi Jinping.

According to CNBC, foreign holdings of U.S. government debt fell sharply in March as central banks sold Treasuries to defend weakening currencies during the geopolitical and energy shock tied to the escalating Middle East conflict.

China reduced its Treasury holdings to roughly $652 billion, the lowest level since 2008. Japan, the single largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, also cut exposure aggressively. Overall foreign holdings dropped from approximately $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion in a single month.

That should deeply concern anyone paying attention to the structural fragility underneath the U.S. financial system.

For decades, the global economy has operated on a relatively simple arrangement. The United States issues the world’s reserve currency, foreign governments recycle trade surpluses into U.S. Treasuries, and America finances massive deficits because the rest of the world willingly absorbs its debt. That system only works as long as there is confidence in the dollar, confidence in the Federal Reserve, and confidence that U.S. government debt remains the safest and most liquid place on earth to park capital.

When major foreign holders begin reducing exposure during a period of rising inflation, exploding deficits, and growing fiscal instability, it creates a potentially dangerous chain reaction. And the timing for the world to be dumping treasuriers right now could not be worse.

Bonds are already under pressure because inflation is proving far stickier than policymakers expected. As I wrote last week, both CPI and PPI came in significantly hotter than anticipated, forcing markets to rapidly reassess the possibility that the Federal Reserve may actually need to raise rates again instead of cutting them.

Meanwhile, deficits continue spiraling, interest expense on the national debt keeps exploding higher, and the Treasury must issue enormous amounts of new debt simply to keep funding government spending. Now layer weakening foreign demand on top of all of that.

That combination is nasty. If foreign governments buy fewer Treasuries while supply continues surging, yields move higher. Higher yields tighten financial conditions across the entire economy. Mortgage rates stay elevated. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Regional banks sitting on massive unrealized bond losses face renewed pressure. Commercial real estate weakens further. Consumers get squeezed harder.

And because Treasuries serve as the foundational collateral layer of the global financial system, instability there spreads everywhere else. This is why the liquidation story matters far beyond geopolitics.

China reducing Treasury exposure is not entirely new. The broader trend has been developing for years as Beijing slowly diversifies reserves away from direct dependence on U.S. assets. Whether through outright selling or indirect “shadow holdings” routed through financial centers like Belgium and Luxembourg, the direction has been fairly clear for a long time.

But Japan selling aggressively alongside China is where things become even more uncomfortable. Some of Japan’s selling is likely tied to defending the yen as energy shocks and rising oil prices pressure its economy. Japan imports the overwhelming majority of its energy, so a collapsing yen combined with surging import costs creates enormous strain domestically. Selling Treasuries gives Tokyo access to dollar liquidity it can use to intervene in currency markets and stabilize the yen before the situation spirals further.

Japan has spent decades as one of the most reliable buyers of U.S. debt. If even Tokyo is becoming less comfortable absorbing massive amounts of Treasuries while inflation remains elevated and deficits continue exploding, markets should pay attention. Japan may simply see the same thing the bond market increasingly sees: the United States is issuing debt at an unsustainable pace into an environment where inflation is no longer fully under control.

If that’s the case, that is not just a portfolio adjustment. That is a confidence signal. The uncomfortable reality is that the United States has become dangerously dependent on perpetual debt expansion at the exact moment global appetite for absorbing that debt is becoming less certain.

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And this is where the Federal Reserve’s trap becomes even more severe. If inflation reaccelerates while Treasury demand weakens simultaneously, the Fed faces two terrible options: raise rates further to defend credibility and contain inflation, risking deeper stress across banks, housing, private credit, equities, and the broader economy or step back in with liquidity programs and money printing to stabilize markets and absorb debt issuance, effectively reigniting the same inflation problem they spent years trying to contain.

That is the corner policymakers have backed themselves into after years of artificially suppressed rates, endless stimulus, and the assumption that global demand for U.S. assets would remain infinite regardless of fiscal discipline.

It won’t. And I wrote this past week about why it seems incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has a job in front of him that seems impossible.

The most dangerous part of this story is that markets still seem unwilling to fully process what sustained deterioration in Treasury demand would actually mean. Investors have spent decades treating U.S. government debt as the unquestioned risk free foundation of the financial system.

But when foreign governments begin reducing exposure while inflation stays elevated and deficits spiral, that assumption starts getting tested in real time.

And once confidence in the system itself begins eroding, things can unravel far faster than policymakers would like to admit.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:45

Jobless Claims Refuse To Show Any Signs Of AI Jobpocalypse

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 12:35:44 +0000

Jobless Claims Refuse To Show Any Signs Of AI Jobpocalypse

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell to 209k last week (below expectations), continuing to show absolutely on signs of any labor market stress...

Source: Bloomberg

That is basically unchanged since 2021.

Continuing jobless claims ticked up modestly but remains below 1.8 million Americans (just off two year lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

So, despite the tsunami of headlines every day about the AI jobpocalypse, 'hard' data shows no signs of any pain yet (wait until the severance packages run dry)...

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:35

Ayatollah Orders Highly-Enriched Uranium To Remain In Iran, Stymying Trump's Basis For Deal

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 12:20:00 +0000

Ayatollah Orders Highly-Enriched Uranium To Remain In Iran, Stymying Trump's Basis For Deal

The illusion of a grand diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East is once again colliding with reality. The White House has been busy trying to paint a picture of a total capitulation by Tehran, which hasn't been demonstrated given its consistent position defying Washington's demands on the nuclear issue.

According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory.

Office of the Supreme Leader, via Reuters

Reuters underscores that "Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran."

"Israeli officials have told Reuters that ‌Trump has assured Israel that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this," the report continues.

The officials noted that within Tehran, there is deep suspicion that the ceasefire is in fact "a tactical deception by the US," designed to lull Iran into a "false sense of security... before the fighting resumes."

The fresh directive from from the supreme leader flies directly in the face of the narrative being spun by Washington and Tel Aviv, given Israeli officials maintain that President Trump explicitly promised Israel that Iran's highly enriched stockpile would be completely removed from the country as part of any negotiated settlement.

Trump has also recently proclaimed this publicly, for example in a phone interview with CBS News last month, wherein he confidently proclaimed that Iran "agreed to everything" and would cooperate fully to ship its enriched uranium out of the country.

Extraction of nuclear material would of course rely heavily on the assumption of total Iranian compliance, given Trump has also lately appeared to rule out out a hostile invasion force, stating, "No. No troops."

There seems to be widespread agreement among national security officials at this point that some kind of special forces op to covertly go in and take it would be tantamount to a 'suicide mission'.

According to more of what Trump (prematurely) proclaimed in the prior CBS interview: "Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States."

The reality is all along the two sides' positions have been very far apart, and largely unbending:

And on a potential deal: "We'll be getting it together because by that time, we'll have an agreement and there's no need for fighting when there's an agreement. Nice right? That's better. We would have done it the other way if we had to" - he sought to explain.

At the moment, Iranian officials are reportedly reviewing the latest updated US proposals for peace, having reportedly asked Pakistan for time to assess and study the American points for negotiations."

However, Khamenei locking down the 60% enriched uranium inside Iranian borders, and amid suspicion that the US ceasefire offer is but a Trojan horse to get the Islamic Republic to simply given up its potential last line of defense, doesn't bode well for the chances of a breakthrough anytime soon.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

For the latest warning from the White House, via Stephen Miller: "Iran has a choice to make: they can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history. That's the choice they face" - he told Fox News.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:20

Watch: Vance Urges UK Patriots To Defend Their Culture Against Starmer Mass Migration Betrayal

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 12:05:00 +0000

Watch: Vance Urges UK Patriots To Defend Their Culture Against Starmer Mass Migration Betrayal

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

US Vice President JD Vance has sent a direct message of support to Britons standing up for their culture, telling attendees of the Unite the Kingdom rally to push forward despite Keir Starmer’s attempts to silence opposition to mass migration.

The rally, held this past weekend in London and organised by Tommy Robinson, saw thousands of patriots turn out waving British flags.

Starmer’s government had tried to sabotage the event by blocking visas for 11 foreign speakers it labelled “far-right agitators.”

🚨 WOW! JD Vance just broke it down PERFECTLY for patriots in the West rising up against 3rd world migration, BUCKING Keir Starmer calling it "far-right"

"To everybody in the UK who rejects [3rd world migration], I'd encourage them to just KEEP ON GOING! It's OK to want to… pic.twitter.com/cKUjz95Nt7
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 19, 2026

The Prime Minister openly boasted about the bans on X, writing “I’ll always champion peaceful protest. But the Unite the Kingdom march organisers are peddling hatred and division. We’ve already blocked visas for far-right agitators who want to come here to spew their extremist views. They don’t speak for the decent, fair, respectful Britain I know.”

He followed up: “Today the voices of division will be loud. They don’t speak for the country I know, one that belongs to all of us.”

A video from the event captured a striking contrast, showing a left-wing woman in tears hugging her masked companion in fright at the sight of the national flag.

Left-wing woman breaks down in TEARS while hugging mask wearing boyfriend after being triggered by thousands of people marching with British flags. 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8JMyBBq3kw
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) May 18, 2026

Vance rejected the establishment narrative that wanting secure borders equals extremism.

“To everybody in the UK who rejects 3rd world migration, I’d encourage them to just KEEP ON GOING! It’s OK to want to defend your culture!” Vance stated.

He added, “All over the West is this idea that the way to generate prosperity is to bring in MILLIONS and millions of unvetted people and DROP them into your neighborhoods — and we simply reject that idea!”

“It’s OK to want to live in a safe neighborhood. It’s okay to want your job to go to yourself and your neighbors and not to a stranger who you don’t even know. It is reasonable for the people in Western societies to want to control who comes into their country and who doesn’t,” Vance stressed.

He added: “A lot of people, frankly, a lot of people in the media have tried to persuade all of those people that it’s somehow racist to want to protect your borders… even though very often the very people who are most affected by low wage immigration are lower income black and Hispanic Americans right here in the United States of America, and I guarantee that’s true in the UK.”

Vance concluded by drawing a direct link to America First: “So we believe in making America great again. You can’t do that unless you protect your borders. I’d encourage our friends in the UK to follow the same path.”

This latest intervention builds on Vance’s repeated clashes with Starmer and European leaders. He previously called out the British Prime Minister to his face over the UK’s free speech crackdown.

The US later vowed to use its “full arsenal of tools” against Starmer’s policies

Vance has also long warned about the dangers of Europe’s migration experiment, describing it as “civilisational suicide”

He has cautioned that Islamist extremists could seize control of European nukes within 15 years.

Vance has also triggered globalist outrage with his blunt speeches on replacement-level migration.

While Starmer brands patriotic pushback as “hatred and division,” ordinary Britons at the rally made clear they simply want what Vance described as basic common sense: safe streets, jobs for locals, and control over their borders.

Vance’s words arrive as frustration with open borders boils over across the West. Working-class communities on both sides of the Atlantic are paying the price through suppressed wages, overburdened services, and rising insecurity — effects the political class routinely dismisses.

By standing with those who reject cultural erasure, Vance is highlighting a fundamental truth: people of free nations have the sovereign right to preserve their identity and security.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 08:05

Quantum Stocks Erupt As U.S. Gov't Awards $2 Billion, Takes Equity Stakes

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 11:45:00 +0000

Quantum Stocks Erupt As U.S. Gov't Awards $2 Billion, Takes Equity Stakes

IBM and small-cap quantum names, including IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, and other peers, are surging in New York premarket trading after a Wall Street Journal report said the Trump administration is preparing to award $2 billion in CHIPS Act grants to nine quantum-computing companies.

IBM is set to receive half of the $2 billion tranche, or about $1 billion, as the large-cap leader in the race to build quantum computing systems that could revolutionize national security, accelerate scientific discovery, and deliver a range of other economic benefits.

WSJ, citing the Commerce Department, outlined the companies expected to receive funding from the 2022 Chips and Science Act:

The department has agreed to give $1 billion of the package to IBM, a leader in the race to build computers that use quantum mechanics to solve problems much faster than traditional supercomputers.

. . .

IBM and other companies are working to develop specialized chips for quantum computing, a focus for the government in its bid to spur domestic supply chains. Chip maker GlobalFoundries is receiving $375 million in funding.

The rest of the firms are expected to receive $100 million, except for startup Diraq, which is slated to get $38 million.

A slew of companies pursuing various approaches to quantum are slated to be awarded funds, including publicly traded firms D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's strategy of using federal funding in exchange for equity stakes will also apply to the quantum computing companies listed above. This is similar to a series of other deals, especially in the rare earths space, including rare-earth magnet maker Vulcan Elements and mining company MP Materials.

US TO GRANT $2B TO 9 QUANTUM COMPUTING FIRMS, TAKE STAKES: WSJ

Among companies receiving funds:

IBM: $1BN
GFS: $375MM
QBTS: $100MM
RGTI: $100MM
INFQ: $100MM
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2026

Lutnick stated, "The Trump administration is leading the world into a new era of American innovation."

In premarket trading, IBM rose 6%, D-Wave Quantum soared 19%, Rigetti Computing jumped 15%, and IONQ up 9%.

Quantum computing benefits:

National security: Quantum systems could eventually break parts of today's encryption, forcing governments, banks, defense firms, and cloud providers to move toward post-quantum cybersecurity. It also has potential uses in secure communications, advanced sensing, navigation, and intelligence systems.
AI and scientific discovery: Quantum computing could accelerate complex simulations used in materials science, drug discovery, chemistry, energy systems, and advanced manufacturing. Combined with AI, it could shorten research cycles that currently take years.
Semiconductors and supply chains: The race is not only about software. It requires specialized chips, cryogenics, photonics, control systems, and advanced manufacturing capacity, making it a strategic industrial-policy priority similar to AI chips.
Finance and logistics: Quantum algorithms could improve optimization problems, including portfolio modeling, risk analysis, routing, supply-chain planning, and energy-grid management.

"Everybody is excited about quantum because it is the next big thing. A lot of the expectations and hopes have yet to be realized," said Dana Goward, president of the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation.

It is important to note that quantum computing remains in the early stages, is expensive, and is technically challenging.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said that "very useful" standalone quantum computers are still roughly 15 to 20 years away.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:45

Futures Slump, Ignoring Korean Euphoria, After Iran Rejects Trump Enriched Uranium Demands

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 11:38:33 +0000

Futures Slump, Ignoring Korean Euphoria, After Iran Rejects Trump Enriched Uranium Demands

A steady rebound in US equities driven by peak insanity in Korea (where the two chip stocks that account for most of the market surged and sent the Kospi soaring more than 8% overnight) faded after a report that Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain in the country, rejecting Trump's key ceasefire demand, while oil and bond yields jumped as traders waited in mounting futility to see whether hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East would translate into tangible progress. As of 7:15am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures slid 0.3% after otherwise very strong Nvidia’s earnings failed to ignite further strong gains in the artificial intelligence trade. Treasuries fell as Brent reversed earlier losses to climb 2% above $107 after Tehran's response disappointed those hoping for de-escalation. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon did not help, warning that interest rates may climb much further from current levels. Long-dated bonds around the world have tested multiyear highs in recent days on concern about an oil-driven spike in inflation and amid worries over government spending.

Yesterday's Nvidia earnings proved to be a dud: Nvidia shares were unchanged (crushing both put and call buyers as the implied vol collapse) in US premarket trading after the AI chipmaker reported Q1 results and gave a forecast amid increased investor skepticism. While analysts were broadly positive, some also questioned the sustainability of growth, especially amid higher competition. Intuit sank 13% after the software company said it plans to reduce its workforce by about 17%. The shares of space exploration and satellite internet companies were broadly steady after Elon Musk’s SpaceX filed publicly for an initial public offering. Tesla advanced 1.6%, while other Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Amazon +0.6%, Alphabet +0.3%, Meta -0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%).

Aevex Corp. (AVEX) is up 8.5% after the drone maker reported first-quarter earnings. The company also announced that it was awarded $15.6 million in contracts by the US Air Force.
Applied Digital (APLD) jumps 11% after the company signed a 15-year lease valued at about $7.5 billion with a US investment-grade hyperscaler for its Polaris Forge 3 campus.
Elf Beauty Inc. (ELF) is up 9.9% after the cosmetics company beat the average analyst estimate on major profit and revenue estimates. Meanwhile, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2027 that fell short of expectations.
Intuit (INTU) sinks 13% after the tax-preparation software company reported third-quarter results that were seen as disappointing for its TurboTax business. It also said it is cutting about 17% of its staff, confirming an earlier Reuters report.
Nebius (NBIS) is up 8.4% after partnering with Bloom Energy to deploy fuel-cell technology to power its AI infrastructure build-out in the US. Bloom rises 2.6%.

In other corporate news, Samsung reached a tentative last-minute deal with its union, averting a potentially crippling strike scheduled to start on Thursday at the world’s biggest memory firm.

Virtually all overnight gains in the S&P faded just after 6am when Reuters blasted the following two headlines which poured cold water on expectations of a quick deescalation in the Iran war

*IRAN SUPREME LEADER SAYS URANIUM MUST STAY IN IRAN: REUTERS
*IRAN SUPREME LEADER ISSUES DIRECTIVE ON URANIUM: REUTERS

Almost overshadowed by headlines related to AI-disrupter Anthropic and SpaceX, Nvidia’s results produced the expected high growth. Nvidia’s revenue growth shows that the momentum of the debt-fueled AI data-center buildout is accelerating. While analysts are broadly positive, some also questioned the sustainability of growth, especially amid higher competition. Some also pointed to the company's compute revenue miss as an early warning sign, especially with Nvidia changing the way it reports revenue so it masks this weakness going forward. Nvidia's price reaction was expected to be more muted compared to the last few years - call open interest has been drifting lower. While this suggests a cooling in the speculative chase that previously defined the popular AI trade, it isn’t dimming the price action of peripheral beneficiaries - a windfall for Asian chip makers.

“Investors remain relentless in pursuit of supernormal returns offered by AI,” said Emmanuel Valavanis, an equity sales specialist at Forte Securities, noting how narrow the market has become given a “laser beam focus on AI, the biggest tech infrastructure build-out of 21st century.”

Shortly after the Nvidia results, SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever IPO, revealing billions in losses and a super-voting share plan allowing Elon Musk to keep the company under his control. SpaceX had a net loss of $4.28 billion on revenue of $4.69 billion for the first quarter, compared with a net loss of $528 million on revenue of about $4 billion a year earlier, the filing shows.

While this will surely change, for now SpaceX is now a cash incinerating machine, with nearly $25BN in cash burn in the last 12 months.

“We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond.” Space Exploration said in its Form S-1.

Elsewhere Jamie Dimon said interest rates may climb much higher from current levels, while his firm will likely hire more AI specialists and fewer traditional bankers as the adoption of the technology accelerate.

The muted tone in US markets contrasted with buoyant optimism in Asia, where a key tech gauge jumped the most in six weeks.

Overnight Asia saw stock market fireworks with Korea's LG Electronics and Hyundai Mobis both surging in Seoul after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang touted new opportunities offered by robots and automated vehicles. SoftBank Group Corp. jumped 20% as two companies backed by the Japanese investor - OpenAI and SB Energy Corp. - were said to be preparing for initial public offerings. Regional chipmakers tracked Wednesday’s gains in US peers.

“The rally in Asia has been supported by very strong momentum in technology, particularly around the current reality of AI demand,” said Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Looking ahead, investors also continue to see structural growth potential linked to the future evolution of AI, including companies that may emerge as leaders.”

European shares edged higher after early declines as investors digested earnings reports and purchasing managers’ index data from across the region. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, British defense technology firm QinetiQ was among the top gainers after posting strong results and announcing a new share buyback programme, while Ubisoft slumped on weak bookings. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

QinetiQ shares jumped as much as 11%, the biggest daily rise in over a year, after earnings showed a profit beat and a buyback initiative.
Investec rallied as much as 5.3% in London to its highest intraday level since April after the specialist lender reported net income for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
Generali shares rose as much as 2.9%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the Italian insurer reported what analysts say are strong 1Q earnings.
CSG shares rose as much as 5.9% after Oddo BHF upgraded the defense company to outperform from neutral, saying there is potential for significant re-rating after a short attack sent the stock plunging earlier this month.
Naturgy Energy Group shares gained as much as 3.4%, trading at their highest level since 2022, after receiving upgrades from Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas.
Alfen rose as much as 25% after a Jefferies upgrade gives it a sole buy rating, with the energy-equipment company seen favorably positioned to capitalize on the energy transition theme, with double-digit growth in all end-markets.
Greece’s Public Power rose as much as 6% to a record high after it concluded a share capital increase on Wednesday.
Hexagon shares fell as much as 18% on Thursday, their first day of trading excluding rights to the company’s upcoming spin off of its subsidiary Octave.
Ubisoft shares slumped as much as 19% on Thursday after the video game maker guided to a high single-digit percentage drop in net bookings for the coming fiscal year, well below expectations.
Convatec shares dropped as much as 5.6%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Thursday morning, after the medical products and equipment manufacturer provided an update for the first four months of 2026.
MaaT Pharma shares plunge as much as 61%, the most on record, after the French biotech company said its experimental therapy Xervyteg for acute graft-versus-host disease is likely to be turned down by the European Medicines Agency.
Autotrader falls as much as 4.8%, most since Feb. 3, after a soft earnings report which analysts said will weaken confidence in the online vehicle marketplace. The stock has lost about a fifth of its value this year.
Elior slumped as much as 26%, the most since November 2024, after the French catering and food services company’s first-half results came in significantly below expectations and it lowered guidance for the full year.

Investors are also getting a reading into business activity in major economies against a backdrop of rising energy costs. The data compiled by S&P Global are closely watched as they arrive early in the month and are good at revealing trends and turning points. In the UK, businesses posted the first decline in output in over a year as the Iran shock and a mounting rebellion against Prime Minister Keir Starmer hit activity in the services sector. In the euro area, activity shrank at the quickest pace in 2 1/2 years.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities snapped a four-day losing streak, with a rally in tech shares and easing Middle East tensions helping lift sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.8%, the most over a month. South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 8% to lead gains in the region after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative deal with its labor union. Shares in Taiwan and Japan also jumped. Chip heavyweights contributed the most to the Asian benchmark’s gains. Meanwhile, SoftBank Group shares soared in Japan after reports said that two of the companies it backs are preparing to list in the US.

Walmart, Ralph Lauren and Deere are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. While confident in its ability to win market share, Walmart is unlikely to raise full-year guidance given persistent uncertainties from higher fuel and freight costs, Citi said. Numbers from Take-Two and Workday follow later in the day.

In commodities, Brent crude futures are up 2% to near $107 a barrel, erasing an earlier fall, after a report that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. European stocks surrendered gains and turned red on the news, while US equity futures dropped. Precious metals extended declines.

Bonds also sold off, with the decline in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.61%. European government followed suit, led lower by shorter dated maturities.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% while the Swedish krona and Aussie dollar slipped to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile, losing 0.4% each. While a resolution could put the dollar under selling pressure, conviction of a lasting peace deal is lower, ING strategists say. “The dollar’s contained reaction to Trump’s comments leaves a relatively larger scope for further downside if a deal is indeed about to be agreed,” they write in a note; “But it also confirms thinner market patience, and a new period of a stall in negotiations could end up taking DXY above the 99.50 mark even without any new military re-escalation."" At the same time significant downside in the currency may be limited given hawkish FOMC minutes on Wednesday, strategists say

Looking at today's calendar, we get Housing starts for April, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, and initial jobless claims through May 16 are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by provisional PMI data for May at 9.45 a.m.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.3%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%,
Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%,
DAX +0.5%,
CAC 40 +0.3%
10-year Treasury yield +2 basis point at 4.60%
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.2,
euro little changed at $1.163
WTI crude -0.1% at $98.13/barrel

Top Overnight News

Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran's stance on one of the main U.S. demands at peace talks. RTRS
Pakistan stepped up diplomatic efforts on Thursday to hasten U.S. and Iran peace talks, as Tehran said it was reviewing Washington's latest responses and President Donald Trump suggested he could wait a few days for "the right answers" from Tehran but was also willing to resume attacks on the country. RTRS
Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that "the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent", but requires guarantees: Al Arabiya and ISNA
The US will open a new consulate building in Greenland, renewing concerns over Washington’s designs for the island. Protests are planned. BBG
Beijing is holding up a proposed visit by the Pentagon’s top policy official as China pressures Donald Trump over a $14bn weapons package for Taiwan. FT
The Trump administration is awarding $2 billion in grants to nine quantum-computing companies in deals that include U.S. government equity stakes. WSJ
Anthropic’s revenue is set to more than double to $10.9 billion in the second quarter, an explosive rate of growth that will help it turn an operating profit for the first time. WSJ
The RBI is considering all available options to stabilize the rupee, including an interest-rate hike, more currency swaps and raising dollars from investors overseas, people familiar said. BBG
Euro-area business activity shrank at the quickest pace in two and a half years, adding to fears that the Iran war and surge in energy costs are dealing a severe blow to the economy. BBG
The Fed proposed a new type of limited payment account to give fintech firms greater access to the US payments system. BBG

Iran

Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. ISNA further reported that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that "the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent", but requires guarantees.
"According to my sources in Tehran, Iran’s response hasn’t been handed to the Pakistani mediator. There’re ongoing deliberations, and serious efforts to reach a final draft," according to Al Jazeera's Hashem.
"Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’," according to journalist Mallick.
Pakistani source tells Al Jazeera the Army Chief is still in Pakistan and his visit to Iran depends on the outcomes of the interior minister's visit, enriched uranium is the main sticking point in the US-Iranian negotiations.
Pakistan's Army Chief is to travel to Tehran on Thursday for negotiations and as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran, ISNA reported.
Pakistani political and media circles point to accelerated mediation efforts after Pakistani Interior Minister's Tehran meetings, IRNA reported. The report adds that presenting a narrative that indicates that progress in negotiations between Tehran and Washington is likely.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran is pursuing talks "in good faith" but views US with "deep suspicion", Press TV reported. Confirms multiple rounds of messages have been exchanged through Pakistani intermediaries based on the 14-point proposal.
Iranian official said they are ready to use new weapons if the US makes an additional act of aggression again, while he said they have produced and advanced weapons inside the country that have not yet been used on the battlefield and have not yet been tested. Furthermore, the spokesman stated that in terms of equipment and defensive capabilities, they are not experiencing any shortages that would prevent the defence of the country, and this time, they do not intend to act with restraint.
IRGC said forces are ready to respond to any enemy aggression and all armed forces are ready with fingers on the trigger, according to SNN and Tasnim.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks mostly rallied as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, with global risk sentiment underpinned following a slide in oil prices due to increased optimism regarding a resolution to the Middle East conflict, after President Trump stated that they are in the final stages of talks with Iran. Furthermore, it was also reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the achievement of a final draft agreement, while the US side gave Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator after having received Iran's 14-point text a few days ago. ASX 200 climbed higher with the gains led by outperformance in the real estate, mining and materials industries, while the index also shrugged off the weak flash PMIs and disappointing jobs data. Nikkei 225 surged higher amid the decline in energy prices and heavy buying in tech stocks, with SoftBank shares up around 20% following the earnings beat from NVIDIA, while there was a slew of data from Japan which were ultimately mixed, but included stronger-than-expected trade figures. KOSPI outperformed amid tech strength with SK Hynix surging by a double-digit percentage, while Samsung Electronics was boosted by an eleventh-hour tentative wage agreement with the labour union to avert an 18-day mass walkout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the increased liquidity effort by the PBoC, with price action rangebound and Chinese markets constrained amid weakness in energy stocks and automakers.

Top Asian News

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan's fiscal policy is proactive and not expansionary.
Japan's draft extra budget is reportedly around JPY 3tln, while it was also reported that Japan plans to spend JPY 500bln in reserve funds on energy measures.
India is said to weigh options to boost the rupee, including a rate hike, with the RBI also considering options such as currency swaps and raising dollars from overseas investors.
South Korea's NPS may hike domestic stock holding target by 5 percentage points amid rises in domestic stock market, Maeil reported.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are entirely but modestly in the green, ex. FTSE 100 (-0.1%). Signs of an end to the Iran war seem to be emerging, with President Trump saying the US is in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, while Al Arabiya reported that Tehran is studying the American text. The source report added that Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Elsewhere, EZ flash PMIs disappointed, with commentary continuing to highlight stagflation worries despite ECB Lagarde’s persistence in moving away from the language. European sectors point to a positive bias. Autos (+1.2%) and Retail (+0.6%) top the sector pile while Energy (-0.2%) and Banks (-0.2%) underperform.

Top European News

EU Commission downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2026 inflation revised to 3.00% (prev. 1.9%).
UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce cuts to food tariffs and children's bus fares on Thursday in a cost-of-living push to win back voters. It was separately reported that Reeves will not announce a proposed voluntary cap on supermarket prices for essential groceries following strong backlash from the sector, according to Financial Times. Furthermore, Politico reported that Reeves is to announce a cut to agrifood tariffs on some products and a rise in mileage rates.

The Dollar index is unchanged on the day and returns to Thursday’s lows around 99.00 after chopping on geopolitics and soft EZ/French data. Action ultimately dictated by geopolitics, with reports recently sounding constructive and has outweighed the Dollar positive factors which incl. poor EZ PMI metrics and hawkish FOMC Minutes.
EUR saw decent weakness on dismal French data, which heightened the possibility of EZ-US differentials widening. French PMIs marked the steepest contraction since late 2020. Services and composite were expected to be broadly unchanged from priors, though both slipped significantly further into contraction territory. The Manufacturing picture was better, though the metric still fell into contraction. The EZ figure was also poor but provided some reprieve for the single currency. EZ Manufacturing was resilient, though still fell below expected and previous, while composite and services fell further into contraction. As the French series was released, EUR/USD saw a move c.24 pips lower to a 1.1594 trough, though pared some downside as German/EZ figures were not as bad as feared according to the indications from France.
JPY remains reluctant to deviate from the 159.00 mark despite hawkish remarks from BoJ's Koeda. JPY fundamentals remain bearish amid reporting around the Supplementary Budget and terms of trade. Koeda’s remarks overnight, “BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate”, mark the second non-dissenting member to indicate willingness to tighten policy (Masu+Koeda). This shows that last meeting’s 6-3 vote split will be vulnerable in June’s meeting, with the aforementioned members’ remarks indicating a possible 5-4 vote split for a hike, where interest rate futures currently imply a 77% probability of such action.

Central Banks

BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions, while she thinks the BoJ needs to continue examining the extent to which underlying inflation is anchored. Koeda said given the situation in the Middle East, she sees some possibility that underlying inflation may exceed 2% looking ahead, and noted it is reasonable for BoJ to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation, whilst also considering the trade-offs for the economy. Furthermore, she warned that if real interest rates continue to deviate markedly in a negative direction from the natural rate of interest, unintended distortions could arise in future resource allocation, as well as stated that the BoJ should proceed steadily with normalising its balance sheet in a predictable manner, while ensuring flexibility.
ECB's Rehn said economy is moving towards the adverse scenario of projections; may need to raise rates to maintain credibility.
Norges Bank Expectations Survey (Q2): 12-month ahead CPI 3.3% (prev. 2.8%), 2026 real wages 1.1% (prev. 1.3%).

Fixed Income

USTs are off by a few ticks, but have been clambering off worst levels throughout the European session; currently towards the upper end of a 109-05 to 109-12 range. Wednesday saw sentiment lift amidst positive geopolitical newsflow, and this has continued into today’s session. Most recently, reports have suggested that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US, adding that it has “reduced the gaps to some extent”. This led to some pressure in the energy complex, in turn, lifting US paper.
Bunds trade firmer today and towards the upper end of a 124.71 to 125.12 range. Strength today has been facilitated by a) geopolitical optimism (see above), and b) a dire set of PMI metrics. In brief, the French figures were awful, with Manufacturing surprisingly slipping into contractionary territory and Composite/Services also deteriorating; the German metrics also indicated the downbeat Manufacturing environment, but were more or less in line with expectations. The EZ-wide figure concluded that activity in the region is softening across both the Manufacturing and Services; "The survey data indicate that the euro area economy looks set to contract by 0.2% in the second quarter”. The report concludes by suggesting that price gauges suggest inflation is running close to 4%, which, alongside slowing growth, “creates a deepening dilemma for policymakers”.
Gilts move higher alongside the pressure in the crude complex. The region had its own PMI metrics to digest. Manufacturing remained solid whilst Services surprisingly fell into contractionary territory. UK paper was choppy in reaction to the data, but ultimately little moved – perhaps as attention turns to Chancellor Reeves, who is due to speak at 11:30 BST. Reports suggest that she will announce targeted cuts to agrifood tariffs expected to save consumers more than GBP 150mln annually. She is also expected to announce free summer bus travel for children, and a GBP 400mln package for motorists and hauliers, including a postponed 5p fuel duty rise. Political analysts view her speech as an attempt to secure herself as the Labour Party’s long-term chancellor in the midst of recent political turmoil

Commodities

In geopolitics, US President Trump said Iran talks were in the “final stages” but warned the US could get “a little bit nasty” if no deal is reached, while stressing sanctions relief would only come after an agreement. Iran said dialogue was continuing around its 14-point proposal, but rejected surrender, ultimatums or deadlines. Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response.
WTI and Brent crude futures are moving lower following the aforementioned constructive geopolitical headlines. WTI Jul briefly topped USD 100/bbl before returning under the level, currently in a USD 97.29-100.11/bbl range. Brent Jul resides in a 103.68-106.80/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF is now softer by over 1%, with downticks also seen in light of the constructive US-Iran commentary.
Spot gold is contained to a USD 4,512-4,570/oz range, on a modestly softer footing intraday but off extremes as the yellow metal moves in lockstep with the USD, which is influenced by energy prices. Spot silver found intraday resistance at USD 77/bbl before printing a USD 74.67/oz low.
Base metals are lower despite the broader optimism from the US-Iran relatively flat DXY at the time of writing, whilst PMI data in Europe pointed to an overall bleak picture, with the data pointing to contractions in the EZ and the UK. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,477.65- 13,713.40/t range.
ADNOC said that while it can ramp up its oil production in a matter of weeks, it will take 4 months for oil flows through Hormuz to return to 80% of pre-war levels.
China raises gas and diesel prices by CNY 75 and CNY 70 per ton, respectively, from May 22nd.
UAE's new pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly around 50% complete.
Goldman Sachs said global oil stockpiles fell at a record pace of 8.7mln bpd so far in May, while it added that physical markets continue to tighten with estimated oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at a very low 5% of normal.

Geopolitics

Ukraine’s Drone Forces commander said Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Syzran oil refinery (147k-170k capacity) in the Samara region of Russia.
US Defence Undersecretary Colby may visit China ahead of a possible trip by Pentagon chief Hegseth amid tension over Taiwan arms sales, SCMP reported.
US deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in a show of force as President Trump pressures Cuba, according to NYT.
US President Trump said on Wednesday he would speak with Taiwan's President Lai in an unprecedented move for a US leader that could roil US relations with China, according to The Guardian.
Beijing is reportedly holding up a proposed visit by a Pentagon top policy official as China pressures US President Trump regarding a USD 14bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to FT.
Chinese President Xi may visit North Korea by as early as next week, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

8:30 am: United States May 16 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 211k
8:30 am: United States May 9 Continuing Claims, est. 1786k, prior 1782k
8:30 am: United States May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 17.8, prior 26.7
8:30 am: United States Apr Housing Starts, est. 1410k, prior 1502k
8:30 am: United States Apr P Building Permits, est. 1384k, prior 1363k
9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.8, prior 54.5
9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.2, prior 51
9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 51.8, prior 51.7

Central Banks

11:20 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Chicago Radio Interview
12:20 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday’s positive market mood has continued into Asian hours this morning, with the Kospi (+8.08%) and Nikkei (+3.58%) surging via a tech rally even as Nvidia’s eagerly awaited earnings drew a mixed response last night. This follows yesterday’s +1.08% gain for the S&P 500 on increased investor optimism that a US-Iran deal might materialise, leading to sharp declines for Brent crude (-5.63%) and a reversal in Treasury yields (-8.1bps on 10yr).

Starting with Nvidia, the chipmaker reported 85% yoy sales growth to $81.6bn last quarter and projected revenue of around $91bn in the current quarter (vs. $87.4bn est.). Despite the impressive growth and a 75% gross margin, that moderate sales guidance beat drew a lukewarm response from investors. Nvidia’s shares slipped by about 1% in post-market trading after a +1.30% gain yesterday that took it to a +19.8% gain YTD.

Futures on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are flat this morning following Nvidia’s results, but this comes after markets steamed ahead yesterday as the anticipation of good news on Iran brought oil prices and yields lower. The S&P 500 (+1.08%) rose for the first time in four sessions, with chipmakers and technology companies leading the way ahead of Nvidia’s results. The Philly Stock Exchange Index (+4.49%) rebounded strongly, with the Nasdaq (+1.54%) and the Magnificent-7 (+1.34%) also posting sizeable gains. European indices also rebounded, with the Stoxx 600 (+1.46%), CAC 40 (+1.70%), FTSE 100 (+0.99%) and DAX (+1.38%) all posting strong gains.

That positivity has carried over into Asian markets this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is up +3.58%, with Softbank surging +19.85% boosted by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI as the WSJ reported that OpenAI is preparing to file an IPO in the coming days or weeks. Adrian Cox has written a quick note here on this overnight, putting the fundraising in some perspective. It would be double the previous largest IPO in history. Elsewhere, Korea’s KOSPI is soaring +8.08% with the likes of LG Electronics up +25.97% following Nvidia CEO Huang’s earnings call comments about the upside for physical AI and robotics. 8 stocks in the index are up by more than 15% as I type. Samsung (+5.35%) is also advancing strongly after reaching a tentative deal with its labour union to avoid a strike. The ASX is +1.63% higher but Chinese risk is broadly flat.

Before all that, it was rising optimism that the US and Iran might reach a deal that boosted markets yesterday. President Trump said that the US was in the “final stages” for a possible draft deal to end the conflict. Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran is reviewing the new draft US sent to Tehran in response to its 14-point proposal, while Axios reported that Trump and Israel’s Netanyahu had a tense call on Tuesday over the new peace proposal drafted by Qatar and Pakistan. That said, Trump did also threaten escalation, saying “We’ll either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty”. But overall investors jumped on potential, with Brent crude falling -5.63% to $105.02/bbl, whilst the 6-month ahead future fell -3.96% to $88.24/bbl. Brent is back up a modest +0.89% overnight.
The decline in oil helped Treasury yields retreat from Tuesday’s highs. The 10yr yield fell -8.1bps to 4.59%, though that still leaves it +23bps above where it was on May 8. The bond rally was led by breakevens, especially at the front-end, with the 1yr US inflation swap falling -13.9bps to 3.24%. Long-dated real yields also declined after the sharp repricing over the past week, with 30yr nominal (-5.8bps) and real (-5.7bps) yields retreating from post-GFC highs.

While the rates rally dominated the day, the minutes of this month’s FOMC meeting showed officials growing more open to the potential need to raise rates. In particular, a “majority of participants highlighted… that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent”, with “many” officials calling for the Fed to drop its easing bias as a result. As a reminder, three of the voting FOMC members had dissented in favour of dropping the bias.

European government bonds also saw significant relief, with yields on 10yr bunds down -9.6bps to 3.09%, while OATs (-11.2bps) and BTPs (-13.6bps) saw double digit declines amid the decline in oil prices. Those moves came as the final Euro Area April CPI was in-line with the flash reading at +3.0% y/y.

Here in the UK gilts outperformed after a big miss on April headline inflation (2.8% y/y vs 3.0% y/y expected). This was largely driven by weaker services inflation, which rose 3.2% y/y (vs 3.5% expected and down from 4.5% in March), though core CPI (2.5% y/y vs 2.6%) saw a more moderate downside miss. So combined with the global rally, that helped 10yr gilt yields to fall by -14.1bps to 4.99%, whilst the number of hikes priced in for the BoE in 2026 eased from 61bps to 47bps.

In overnight data, we’ve seen the first of the May flash PMI releases. The composite PMI declined in both Australia (from 50.4 to 47.8) and in Japan (from 52.2 to 51.1). Both manufacturing and services PMIs saw a deterioration, but it is services that led the decline, falling to 47.7 in Australia and a 14-month low of 50.0 in Japan. Meanwhile, Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.3% to 4.5% in April, marking its highest level since November 2021. The amount of further RBA hikes priced by year-end has declined from 34bps to 25bps following the data. In contrast, Japan trade figures were unexpectedly resilient in April, with +14.8% year-on-year export growth (vs. +9.2% expected) driving the economy to a third consecutive monthly trade surplus at ¥302bn, significantly outperforming expectations for a marginal deficit.

Flash PMIs will remain in focus later today, with the Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and US releases due. Other US data today includes weekly initial jobless claims (our economists expect these to edge slightly lower to 209k from 211k), the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, as well as April housing starts and building permits. In the Eurozone, we’ll also have May consumer confidence and the March current account data. Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Villeroy and BoE’s Taylor. Notable earnings include Walmart and Generali.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:38

Kremlin Blasts 'Borderline Crazy' Threat From Baltic NATO State

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 11:20:00 +0000

Kremlin Blasts 'Borderline Crazy' Threat From Baltic NATO State

Russia has express outrage and condemnation of what it has on Wednesday denounced as a "borderline crazy threat" from NATO member Lithuania.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys in an interview this week with Neue Zurcher Zeitung provocatively stated that NATO is capable of destroying all Russian bases located in Kaliningrad if necessary.

via MSC

"We have to show the Russians that we're capable of penetrating the small fortress they've built in Kaliningrad," he said of the Russian exclave. "NATO has the capability, if necessary, to raze Russian air defenses and missile bases there to the ground."

Russia's RT has published the Kremlin response as follows:

Recent threats directed at Russia’s Kaliningrad Region by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys are “borderline crazy” and reflect a “maniacal” hostility toward Russia among Lithuania’s leadership, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

“This anti-Russian sentiment makes them blind, prevents them from thinking about the future and from acting in the interests of their nations,” Peskov said, referring to political elites in all three Baltic states.

Later in the day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Peskov’s remarks, arguing that Western officials resort to such hostile rhetoric to assert their relevance. “But unlike the philosopher [Rene Descartes] who said ‘I think, therefore I am’ these people simply are,” the diplomat joked.

As for his other hawkish comments in the interview, the Lithuanian top diplomat strongly suggested the Ukraine war could spread deep into Europe, saying that should the frontline in Ukraine collapse, the consequences would be felt not only across NATO's eastern flank but throughout the entire European Union.

"The idea that a conflict with Moscow would only affect Russia's immediate neighbors is a dangerous misconception. It's part of Russian propaganda," Budrys said.

"If the frontline collapses, everything collapses - the EU, the economy, social order," he added. "There isn’t a single safe haven in Western Europe that would escape the consequences of war. We must finally quantify the cost of a lack of deterrence honestly."

Source: EuroNews

As a reminder, Kaliningrad is surrounded by Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east, which makes Moscow naturally alarmed whenever Polish or Lithuanian officials spew forth threats related to the exclave, which is Russian sovereign territory. However, Europe has also been fearful over the significant military assets and radar capability that Russia has stationed there.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 07:20

KOSPI, Samsung Soar After 11th-Hour Union Deal Averts Chip Strike; Workers Eye $340k Bonuses

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 10:55:00 +0000

KOSPI, Samsung Soar After 11th-Hour Union Deal Averts Chip Strike; Workers Eye $340k Bonuses

South Korea's benchmark KOSPI jumped overnight after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative wage-and-bonus agreement with its main labor union, neutralizing the immediate risk of a paralyzing strike at the world's largest memory-chip producer.

The wage-and-bonus deal removes a major supply-chain threat in an already tight memory market, where AI data center buildouts have driven surging demand, soaring prices, and heightened procurement risk across global semiconductor supply chains.

Samsung Electronics' shares surged after it clinched an 11th-hour deal with its South Korean union to avert a strike, although the terms — which included bonuses of around $416,000 for some workers — gave rise to some concern https://t.co/azFdL0hten pic.twitter.com/1q5naanI5e
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 21, 2026

Here are the key points of the Samsung-union deal reached in the 11th hour of negotiations:

Samsung will introduce a new 10-year performance bonus system for its semiconductor division.
Plan links worker bonuses to profitability, with ambitious profit targets of 200 trillion won annually from 2026-28 and 100 trillion won annually from 2029-35.
Bonus pool will be funded by 10.5% of performance and paid in stock after tax.
Employees can sell 1/3 of the shares immediately, while the rest must be held for up to 2 years.
Samsung also agreed to an average wage increase of 6.2%, improved child support payments, and expanded housing loans.

Based on Bloomberg calculations, Samsung's 78,000 semiconductor workers could receive an average bonus of about 513 million won, or $340,000, depending on final profit levels and individual allocation. That would be more than triple the company's average employee pay of 158 million won in 2025.

Local outlet Yonhap estimates suggest workers in the memory division could receive even larger payouts, potentially around 600 million won per person, though the company does not disclose exact staffing levels by chip segment.

Samsung's union told workers they will be able to vote on the proposed 2026 wage and bonus agreement on Saturday morning.

Putting the wage deal to a vote averted a massive general strike at Samsung today, leading to optimism in the markets.

"HK shares traded directionally lower today, with optimism resurging in memory-heavy markets. Samsung's deal with the labor union brought fresh optimism with Kospi jumping by +8%, and understandably fueling some rotation out of HK/China," Goldman analyst Shubham Ghosh told clients.

Korea's Kospi closes up 8.42%, fourth biggest one-day jump on record. The Index has had nine 5%+ moves just in 2026 pic.twitter.com/YeejMyyOEG
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2026

KOSPI

Samsung

Barclays analyst Bumki Son noted, "As Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now competing for global talents, competitive compensation packages are well warranted."

Earlier this month, the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea warned, "There are mounting concerns that any significant production disruptions or operational uncertainty at Samsung Electronics could place additional strain on the global memory semiconductor market, potentially worsening supply bottlenecks, price volatility, procurement uncertainty, and broader supply chain instability."

All eyes are on the union vote this weekend that extends into next week.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 06:55

Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form 'Vigilante' Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 10:30:00 +0000

Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form 'Vigilante' Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Residents of a quiet East Sussex town have been left with no choice but to patrol their own streets after the leftist Labour government dumped hundreds of unvetted male migrants into a former army camp on their doorstep.

Crowborough, a small community of around 20,000 people, is now home to a volunteer security force called Crowborough Aware. With 81 vetted locals stepping up, the group is conducting regular patrols to deter trouble and keep women and children safe.

This is the direct result of years of open borders policies that have seen tiny, peaceful towns turned into testing grounds for mass migration.

Meanwhile in Crowborough, UK

“6 Migrants surrounded a member of the public”

81 Local Volunteers have formed their own Community Security Team – some are calling them vigilantes.

Why?

Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age… pic.twitter.com/enfoJE32L9
— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) May 18, 2026

The breaking point came when six migrants surrounded a member of the public. That incident pushed locals into action.

The post continues, “Some are calling them vigilantes. Why? “Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age fighting Men into their small town & they are trying to prevent the horrific headlines that are seen daily in every corner of the country from happening there.”

A GB News reporter spoke directly to members of the new patrol group. One volunteer stated clearly: “We are a visible presence to provide safety and security. We are a deterrent.”

The group is not hunting trouble—they are preventing it in a town the government abandoned.

This is Britain in 2026: a small town of 20,000 forced to form a patrol group to protect women and children from hundreds of illegal migrants the government planted there as it abandoned British people to fend for themselves.

The town’s residents have been orderly protesting for months, describing themselves as “petrified,” installing extra security and questioning why their community—historically used to train British soldiers—was being repurposed without consultation.

A local woman named Lucy called into a radio show and encapsulated the mood: “I just know that a load of women and young girls are walking around even in the day with alarms. They’ve taken self-defence classes… It’s scaring all women.”

Instead of addressing those legitimate safety concerns, some local officials doubled down on absurdity. In February, Green Party councillor Anne Cross announced she was taking her young grandchildren to hand-deliver handmade Valentine’s cards to the adult male migrants at the camp.

“There is nothing like getting to know people and hearing their stories in order to dispel fear,” she claimed, insisting there was “no evidence children or women are at a higher risk from people seeking asylum”

The Home Office has moved around 350 single adult male asylum seekers into the Crowborough Training Camp since January, with capacity for more. Migrants can leave the site, creating what locals call a “village within a village.” Police have increased presence following incidents, but residents say it is not enough.

The fact that their community feels the need to do this, is a damning indictment into this Govt’s failing policy to deal with the illegal immigration crisis. Time and again it’s been proven that some of those migrants have criminal backgrounds, and they have been allowed to roam…
— Greg Johnson (@GregJ1966) May 18, 2026

What a sad reflection of the times.

People feel so unsafe in their communities, that they are compelled to give up their own time and patrol the streets.
— Mrs Slocombe (@Maidinamerica3) May 18, 2026

The government should be very worried that this is happening in a nice, middle class town. The government must take notice and do something to stop the situation getting worse. It's a sign of how vile the British establishment is that the working class communities have been…
— HelCol2025 (@HelCol2025) May 18, 2026

When the Government won’t protect its citizens, they will be forced to protect themselves. The inevitable result is vigilantism…..
— Susan Dooley (@SDooley57592) May 19, 2026

It's not "vigilanteism", it's self-defence. This Labour government is setting these savages on us. It is a criminal act of war, and dereliction of duty of care. Us citizens have a right to defend ourselves if the government refuses!!!
— Winston Smith (@WinstonSmi17587) May 18, 2026

The government cares more about housing 500 fighting-age migrants than its own people.
Two-tier Britain in full effect.
— True Europa (@TrueEuropa) May 18, 2026

Why does the government keep targeting small, 95% white villages and towns like Crowborough for these placements?

It is almost as if the goal is to engineer the maximum possible cultural upheaval in the shortest time.

Peaceful communities with low crime and strong social cohesion are suddenly expected to absorb hundreds of unknown military-age men from vastly different backgrounds, with no meaningful vetting or integration plan.

The pattern repeats across the country—tiny places with limited resources and policing get flooded while officials lecture residents about “misinformation” and “fear.” The result is exactly what we see now: locals forced to organise their own security.

Crowborough Aware’s patrols are a visible sign that British communities are no longer waiting for Westminster to wake up. They are acting to protect their own.

The government’s response—more accommodation sites, more dismissals of local concerns—only confirms what more people are realising: the people must look after themselves when the state refuses to do its most basic job.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 06:30

SpaceX Files For Nasdaq IPO Under Symbol SPCX

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 09:54:00 +0000

SpaceX Files For Nasdaq IPO Under Symbol SPCX

Update (1650ET): As expected, SpaceX filed its S1.

The stock is expected to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker “SPCX.”

No specific share count, price range, or total offering size is finalized yet (placeholders are used).

But, with expectations of a $1.5 trillion market cap, that means SPCX will trade at a 77x LTM Revenue multiple!

Mission and Overview

SpaceX's mission is to make life multiplanetary, advance scientific understanding of the universe, and extend consciousness to the stars. It positions itself as a vertically integrated builder across Space, Connectivity (Starlink), and AI (via xAI acquisition).
The company has revolutionized space access with reusable rockets (Falcon family, Starship development), built the world's largest LEO satellite constellation for broadband, and is scaling AI compute and frontier models (Grok) with real-time data from X.

Key Corporate Details

Dual-class structure: Class A (1 vote/share) and Class B (10 votes/share). Elon Musk (founder, CEO, CTO, Chairman) will retain dominant voting control post-IPO (majority of the board via Class B and overall voting power), making SpaceX a “controlled company” under Nasdaq rules.
Basis of presentation: Financials include retrospective recasts for the xAI acquisition (Feb 2026) and X Holdings (via xAI, 2025), plus a 5-for-1 stock split (May 2026).
Underwriters: Led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and others.

Consolidated Financial Highlights (preliminary/selected):

Q1 2026: Revenue $4.69B, operating loss $1.94B, Adjusted EBITDA $1.13B.
FY 2025: Revenue $18.67B, operating loss $2.59B, Adjusted EBITDA $6.58B.
Heavy capex (especially AI) and Starship R&D; Starlink (Connectivity) is the current profit engine.

Business Segments (as of/through Q1 2026 and FY 2025)

Space (launches, Dragon, Starship development):

Dominant global launch provider (>80% of mass-to-orbit in recent years, >99% Falcon success rate).
Key vehicles: Falcon 9 (reusable, ~23t to LEO), Falcon Heavy (~64t), Dragon (cargo/crew to ISS), Starship (in testing, targeting full reusability and massive scale).
Revenue: $619M (Q1 2026), $4.1B (2025). Still investing heavily in R&D/Starship.

Connectivity (Starlink):

~9,600 broadband/mobile satellites in LEO (~10.3M subscribers across 164 countries/territories as of Mar 31, 2026).
High-speed, low-latency broadband (median ~225 Mbps peak for residential); expanding enterprise, government, maritime/aviation, and satellite-to-mobile (direct-to-phone, ~650 dedicated satellites, ~7.4M devices in ~30 countries).
Strong growth: Revenue $3.26B (Q1 2026), $11.4B (2025, +~50% YoY); highly profitable at segment level.

AI (xAI/Grok/X integration):

Gigawatt-scale terrestrial AI training clusters (e.g., COLOSSUS); plans for orbital AI compute satellites (using solar power, starting ~2028).
Grok frontier models (truth-seeking, strong scientific reasoning benchmarks); integrated with X (~1.3B supported accounts, 550M MAUs, hundreds of millions of daily posts).
Revenue $818M (Q1 2026), $3.2B (2025), but heavy losses due to compute/infrastructure investments.

Here's the financials visualized (xAI is represented by the green slabs)...

Free cash flow struggling under the weight of that giant green slabs...

So, xAI is the giant money suck while Starlink keeps the engine running (but despite breaking out in 2025, Starlink user growth seems to be slowing a little):

Finally, one thing that stood out was that Anthropic is paying xAI $1.25BN per month (through May 2029) to utilize 'Colossus' for AI compute.

Musk took to X to explain further his vision for this segment:

As the recently expanded partnership with Anthropic demonstrates, SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale.

We are in discussions with other companies to do the same.

Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale.

If you build it (in space), they will come?

Read the full 270-page S1 here...

* * *

Ahead of Thursday's scheduled launch of SpaceX's Starship V3 rocket, there are indications that Elon Musk's rocket and AI company could release its IPO filing as soon as this afternoon, giving investors, analysts, and competitors a rare look inside the finances and ownership structure of Musk's space empire.

Starship and Super Heavy V3 moved to the pad at Starbase for final testing and preparations for launch pic.twitter.com/vU21Owvoif
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 19, 2026

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Goldman Sachs secured the lead-left role on SpaceX's upcoming IPO, positioning it as the top banker on what could become one of the largest public offerings in history.

SpaceX is expected to seek a valuation of up to $2 trillion, raising an estimated $75 billion to help fuel its AI and Starship rocket-launch ambitions after merging with xAI and pursuing plans for orbital data centers.

The company confidentially filed IPO documents with the SEC in early April, and its public S-1 filing is expected at any moment today.

Last Friday, Reuters reported that the IPO is set for pricing on June 11, followed by a June 12 debut.

The ticker "SPCX" leads the Polymarket bet, "What will SpaceX's public ticker be?" at 91% by lunchtime in New York.

Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
Yes 91% · No 9%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Elon Musk virtually attended a summit in Tel Aviv on Monday, where he said, "We've got to get the SpaceX IPO stuff going here pretty soon." Those comments put a bid into AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, and Rocket Lab.

Bloomberg's Eric Johnson outlined what exactly to look for when the S1 drops:

The company, known formally as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is expected to pick Nasdaq as its listing venue, which would set it up for potential inclusion in the Nasdaq 100.
The IPO filing could include key financial details like revenue and net income across its launch, Starlink and artificial intelligence businesses, as well as capital spending on key programs like its colossal Starship rocket.
key programs like its colossal Starship rocket * SpaceX's filing is set to reveal the hierarchy of the banks running the deal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are the lead firms, with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also working on the transaction, people familiar with the matter have said.
SpaceX will list its largest shareholders, including Musk himself and Alphabet Inc.'s Google; its investors also include Valor Equity Partners, Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz.
We should find out how voting control of the company will be set up. SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure, people with knowledge of the plans have said, which could allow Musk to maintain control of the company even with a minority stake.
The filing likely won't include information on the price range per share, number of shares offered, shares outstanding or precise shareholdings. Those usually come at the start of formal marketing, which could be as early as June 4, ahead of pricing as soon as June 11, Bloomberg News reported.

The Information's Cory Weinberg published five charts making sense of the IPO numbers:

1. SpaceX is expected to file its S-1 publicly as soon as tomorrow.

We've reviewed parts of the draft prospectus and tried to make sense of the numbers. Here are 5 charts that explain the company before the largest IPO in history goes live.

2. The company has accumulated $37 billion in losses over its 24-year history — larger than what the next 10 major loss-making tech IPOs *combined* had to disclose at their offerings.

3. SpaceX will tell investors it has $6.6 billion in 'adjusted' profit last year. Under standard accounting, it lost $4.9 billion.

That gap between headline profit and actual profit is larger than at CoreWeave, Viasat, or Tesla.

4. Starlink dominates. The satellite internet business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year — more than 7 leading publicly traded satellite communications operators combined.

5. The Space segment — SpaceX's launch business — grew only 8% last year. That's because about three-quarters of Falcon 9 launches were for internal Starlink missions rather than outside customers.

6. The AI segment (X plus xAI) grew 23% last year, compared to over 1,000% for Anthropic and nearly 300% for OpenAI. xAI was slowest-growing of the major AI labs.

View Weinberg's report here.

With SpaceX set to be the first out of the gates among the three giant tech IPOs, we can't help but wonder how well the record high market will absorb such supply (and what will be sold to make room for it)...

Shares of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were up around 4% during the lunch hour. These banks are expected to be the lead managers on the IPO.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:54

The Growing Burden Of Old-Age Dependency

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 09:45:00 +0000

The Growing Burden Of Old-Age Dependency

Many countries around the world are facing a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio, according to projections published in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, this indicator measures the number of people aged 65 and older relative to the working-age population (between 15 and 64 years old).

South Korea is expected to experience a particularly steep increase, with the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age adults projected to jump from 31.2 in 2026 to 75.6 by 2050.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Italy is also forecast to see a dramatic rise, climbing from 40.7 to 70.4. These figures underscore the accelerating pace of global population ageing, which will result in a growing economic burden on shrinking workforces.

Established industrial economies such as the United States are projected to age more gradually, with the old-age dependency ratio rising from 29.3 to 37.9 over the same period.

By comparison, China is expected to undergo a particularly rapid demographic shift, with its ratio more than doubling from 21.6 to 52.3.

India and several younger emerging economies are forecast to remain comparatively youthful despite moderate increases.

These UN projections are based on certain trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration.

If these trends continue, ageing populations are likely to put increasing pressure on labor markets, pension systems and public finances, requiring governments to adapt their policies to older populations.

It's important to note that this data does not account for the fact that many people over the age of 65 are still working, and younger people will not all be working.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:45

Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To 'Sign The Document' - But Israel Wants Military Greenlight

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 09:35:00 +0000

Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To 'Sign The Document' - But Israel Wants Military Greenlight

Summary

Axios: "Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he's ready to resume the war if it isn't."
US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.
Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war
Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in 'final stages' of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn't budged on nuclear issue.
Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

* * *

Iran Issues its Strait Passage Protocol

The following was issued from the Official Account of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has defined the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz management supervision area as follows: "The line connecting Kuh Mobarak in Iran and the south of Fujairah in the UAE in the east of the strait to the line connecting the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm al-Qaiwain in the UAE in the west of the strait."

The statement adds: "Frequencies in this range for passing through the Strait of Hormuz require coordination with the Persian Gulf Waterway Management and a permit from this entity."

Trump: 'Sign the Document' for Face War's Resumption

Trump and Netanyahu had a reported tense phone call related to ongoing Iran talks, and a proposed peace deal on the table. Netanyahu is said to be seeking a greenlight for renewed military action against Tehran, at a moment the Iranians have not compromised on the nuclear issue.

Per fresh reporting in Axios: "Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he's ready to resume the war if it isn't":

"The only question is do we go and finish it up or are they gonna be signing a document. Let's see what happens," he said on Wednesday at the Coast Guard Academy.
Trump also said Netanyahu "will do whatever I want him to do" on Iran, though he also said they had a good relationship. The two leaders have had temporary disagreements on Iran before but have remained closely coordinated throughout the war.
Iran has confirmed it's reviewing an updated proposal, but has not yet shown any signs of flexibility.

The same report says of Israel's position that "Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran's military capabilities and weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure."

US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker

The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.

But, as CENTCOM says, "American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course." This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per state news).

Earlier today in the Gulf of Oman, U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/T Celestial Sea, an Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker suspected of attempting to violate the U.S. blockade by transiting toward an Iranian port. American forces released the… pic.twitter.com/1AVT0MudKY
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) May 20, 2026

Iran Confirms Ongoing Exchange of Messages with US

Some latest from Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "Exchange of messages between Iranian and American sides continues based on the text of Iran's 14-point resolution." And more:

Iran's focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran's clear demands
The presence of the Pakistani Interior Minister is to facilitate the exchange of messages.
Baqaei: We are exchanging messages with suspicion and good intentions
Talking about ultimatums and deadlines regarding Iran is ridiculous.
Iran also says US has to prove its goodwill and stop "piracy" against Iranian ships

Ghalibaf: US Seeking To 'Start A New War'

Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war and still hopes the Islamic Republic will surrender:

"The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war," Ghalibaf said in an audio message carried by Iranian media.

"Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation," he adds.

Trump has given Iran 'days' - or also till the start of next week to come back to the table; however, on Wednesday he's actually touting a 'final' deal draft is near, despite Iran still not budging on the nuclear issue.

Oil Plunges Further on Trump Comment

Again, possibly just more jawboning, but oil's Wednesday morning plunge deepened upon Trump touting 'final stages' of talks with Iran... all of this as usually looking very premature...

TRUMP SAYS US IN 'FINAL STAGES' OF TALKS WITH IRAN: POOL REPORT
TRUMP SAYS 'WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS' W/ IRAN: POOL REPORT
TRUMP: DO WE FINISH IRAN UP OR WILL THEY SIGN, LET'S SEE
TRUMP: SEEING IN IRAN THAT US IS RESPECTED

Another Likely Premature 'Final' Peace Draft Headline, Oil Tumbles

Crude prices tumbled on a regional Al Hadath headline suggesting the "achievement of a final draft" of what will be Iran's latest peace proposal, though the recent pattern of this has shown little will likely come of it with Washington, amid ongoing apparent zero sum demands from each warring side.

Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text. Next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after Hajj season: Al Hadath
Event Sources: If the Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours

More per Newsquawk...

[MARKET UPDATE] Brent falls in excess of USD 3/bbl, WTI slips below USD 100/bbl, Equities bid and USD hit on reports the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text

Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th to 30th May), Al Hadath reports

Sources say if Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours.
Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

BUT...

Al Arabiya sources: The US has informed Pakistan that it will not offer concessions to Iran on the nuclear demands and the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/Av0QIGjyvL
— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) May 20, 2026

IRGC Warns: Next Conflict Round Could Unleash 'War Beyond the Region'

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: "Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side," he said. "Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities," Vaez told Al Jazeera.

On Wednesday Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.

via Shutterstock

"If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region, and our devastating blows will crush you," the IRGC say in the statement published to their website Sepah News.

The warring sides are no closer to getting back to the negotiating table, after President Trump has given just a few 'days' to comply on the nuclear issue, which so far Tehran has not budged on.

But in the meantime Iran still sees American guarantees as "insufficient" regarding a renewed war, Al Arabiya reports Wednesday. The Supreme Leader, who is still in hiding and believed to be recovering from serious injuries that resulted from prior airstrikes, has issued a fresh written message to the public:

Mojtaba Khamenei has commemorated the second anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, saying the country is putting up a “unique historical resistance against two global terrorist armies” in Israel and the US, the Fars News Agency reports.

In another written statement, Khamenei said the war was making the burden on officials “heavier than before”, adding that he was grateful for the “unity of the nation”.

Iran: 26 Vessels Transit Strait in last 24-Hours Under its Protocol

In the Strait of Hormuz, there's been a continued trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after Beijing asked:

Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be resolved after positive comments from the US president and his deputy.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over “very quickly” while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.

This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per SNN).

🚨 Two Chinese VLCCs carrying 4 mb of Iraqi oil have crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are now heading straight for the US blockade. If they’re allowed to pass, it means Trump and Xi have quietly agreed to let it happen.

Meanwhile, 4 LNG carriers are on their way to China to… pic.twitter.com/FA2KFEniuZ
— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) May 20, 2026

And reports of a South Korean tanker safely traversing at this point:

A South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, in a report from AFP.

“At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at the National Assembly in Seoul.

Ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed the South Korea-flagged tanker Universal Winner on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, bound for the southeastern South Korean city of Ulsan after departing Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi port.

'Big Hit' Preparation Underway?

As a reminder of prior Trump threats this week, and the typically vague timetable, the president on Tuesday renewed warnings that he could imminently resume bombing Iran, declaring the country will face a "big hit" if it refuses to accept US demands for a deal within days.

Netanyahu and Trump held what Israel’s N12 News described as a “lengthy and dramatic” phone call overnight, amid growing speculation over a possible new strike on Iran.
Netanyahu will skip both the opening of the Knesset session and a key vote on dissolving parliament today
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) May 20, 2026

"Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters. Trump had the day prior said he was "holding off" on striking Iran on after requests from Gulf Arab states. Then he followed by claiming the attack was moments away from being launched. "We were all set to go… It would have been happening right now."

More Latest

More latest developments via Newsquawk:

US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
Iran's IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran's powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
"On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:35

Dubai's Shipping Hub Status Under Pressure As Some Industry Veterans Eye Greece

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Dubai's Shipping Hub Status Under Pressure As Some Industry Veterans Eye Greece

Via Middle East Eye

Some shipping industry workers based in Dubai are looking to relocate from the UAE as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, one ship-owner and two industry sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

Western expats working in the maritime industry are eyeing the Greek capital, Athens , and Cyprus as potential alternatives to Dubai, given those countries' dominant positions in shipping and the favorable tax policies they offer the industry, the sources said.

via AFP

The search for alternatives to Dubai underscores how some expats, particularly westerners with easy access to Europe, do not expect the Gulf to return to its pre-war position anytime soon.

Around 2,000 vessels are trapped in the Gulf as a result of competing US and Iranian blockades of the waterway. But the shipping industry is experiencing a boom as a result of the war. The lockdown of vessels has compressed supply, and rates are soaring as energy corridors are rewired.

US oil and gas exports have hit record highs as a result of the war. But the transit time from the US Gulf coast to Asia is substantially longer than the journey from the Arabian Gulf.

Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks the price of crude oil tanker rates, is up 240 percent since the war on Iran started.

The industry's good fortune stands in stark contrast to the UAE's maritime sector, which has been pummeled by the blockade.

The Gulf state turned itself into the dominant logistics hub for the Middle East, Asia and Africa. The port of Jebel Ali is one of the largest in the world, and is a major hub for transhipment, where goods are transferred from one vessel to another before their final destination.

The UAE's top export, oil, has also been cut by more than half as a result of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

"It’s not so much the slowdown in business, but the unreliability of Dubai as a hub. Can you count on a flight back to London or Paris for your family during war?" the ship owner said to Middle East Eye.

'Thousands' of Dubai real estate offices to close

Dubai benefited potentially more than any other city in the world from the post-Covid boom of soaring asset prices, cryptocurrency, and remote work.

Capitalizing on its low corporate tax rate, zero income tax or capital gains tax, and smooth bureaucracy, it became a magnet for London bankers and American "finance bros". Its financial institutions have served as a haven for Sudanese militia leaders dealing in gold to Russian and Ukrainian expats fleeing war in Eastern Europe.

But very few are willing to write Dubai off the map, particularly given the UAE's deep pockets, yet there are some signs that the war has pulled a curtain over its tremendous boom years.

Arabian Business reported on Wednesday that thousands of real estate agencies in Dubai may close in the coming months due to the war. A leading property search platform said that up to 30 percent of the agencies active on its site could shutter within the next five to six months.

As with western expats, where the war is filtering out those most committed to Dubai, the real estate agencies most likely to close are smaller operators or those that focused on speculative ends of the market, such as off-plan sales.

Arabian Business cited Lewis Allsopp, the chairman and co-founder of Allsopp & Allsopp, a real estate consultancy, as saying that Dubai’s ratio of brokers to residents is close to 1,000 per 100,000. For comparison, London has around 176 brokers per 100,000 people.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 05:00

UK Leads European Nations In Hiring Over-50s

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 08:15:00 +0000

UK Leads European Nations In Hiring Over-50s

Over the past two decades, ageing populations, rising retirement ages and higher education levels have contributed to rising employment rates among workers aged 55 and over across OECD countries. Yet many workplaces are still designed around shorter careers, leading many people to leave work earlier than they need or want to. This deepens the demographic pressures facing ageing societies, including labor shortages, as early exits reduce the number of employees and inflate public welfare and healthcare costs.

The OECD argues that employers play a decisive role in enabling longer working lives through hiring practices, access to training, job quality and workplace conditions. To help organizations assess and improve their approach, the OECD recently launched a Longevity Readiness Tool, which benchmarks policies and practices across sectors and countries to identify where action is most needed.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, the data reveals wide differences in how countries support older workers. In hiring, the United Kingdom ranked highest in Europe in 2023, with people aged 50 and over accounting for roughly 12 percent of new hires. Finland followed at 9 percent, while Denmark and Estonia each recorded 6 percent. Poland ranked lowest at just 2 percent.

You will find more infographics at Statista

By industry, the category of accommodation and food services hired the largest share of older workers at 11 percent, followed by administration and support services at 9 percent, while education lagged behind at only 3 percent.

Training opportunities also varied significantly across OECD nations.

In New Zealand, 49 percent of surveyed employees aged 50 to 65 said they had participated in employer-funded training programs, marking the highest share recorded. The United States followed at 48 percent and Czechia at 43 percent, while South Korea ranked lowest at just 5 percent.

Job autonomy showed similar disparities. In Japan, 92 percent of workers aged 50 to 65 reported having some control over the pace of their work, compared with only 61 percent in Sweden.

An OECD paper notes that hiring rates among older workers are shaped by several factors. Although wages and benefits often rise with age, productivity does not always increase at the same pace. At the same time, evidence suggests multigenerational workforces can strengthen productivity through knowledge transfer and accumulated experience.

Older applicants also continue to face age discrimination (particularly women), alongside employer concerns about adaptability, tenure and technological skills.

However, the OECD argues these barriers can be addressed through better training, fairer compensation structures and policies aimed at reducing age-related bias in recruitment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 04:15

UK Police Log One-Year-Old Baby As Crime Suspect; Hundreds Of Kids Flagged For Offences

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 07:30:00 +0000

UK Police Log One-Year-Old Baby As Crime Suspect; Hundreds Of Kids Flagged For Offences

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

A one-year-old baby girl has been officially recorded as a crime suspect by Kent Police after allegedly causing a minor injury to another toddler. This is part of a shocking tally where 683 children under 10 were reported for offences over three years.

This isn't some isolated bureaucratic error. It's the latest symptom of a system that treats tiny children as miniature criminals or budding bigots while real threats from failed integration and ideological grooming go unaddressed.

None of these under-10s can be prosecuted - the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales is 10 - yet police are dutifully logging every playground scrape, tantrum, or alleged slight under ridiculous Home Office rules.

Police reveal one-year-old baby among HUNDREDS of children under 10 reported for offences https://t.co/9kpuZO2EIA
- GB News (@GBNEWS) May 18, 2026

Figures obtained via Freedom of Information request reveal the scale: six two-year-olds, 11 three-year-olds, and 20 four-year-olds among the suspects. Boys made up over three-quarters of cases, with violence against others the top category. There were also 130 'sexual offences' involving children under nine.

Kent County Council cabinet member for children's services, Councillor Paul Webb, called the numbers "not great" but stressed early intervention through prevention programmes. He pointed to county lines drug gangs recruiting vulnerable kids, especially those in care, as a major driver.

Kent Police Chief Superintendent Rob Marsh explained that reports come from victims, families, schools, and agencies, with the focus on safeguarding rather than punishment: prevention, education, and family support.

This toddler-as-suspect absurdity doesn't emerge in a vacuum. It mirrors the broader UK push to turn nurseries, schools, and playgrounds into surveillance hubs for ideological compliance.

Just weeks ago, nurseries in Wales were urged to report "racist" toddlers to police under a £1.3 million taxpayer-funded scheme.

Childcare workers receive training to spot and log "hate incidents" by children barely out of nappies, complete with audits for "diversity" and lessons on "white privilege."

The guidance from Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University explicitly frames toddler squabbles as potential hate crimes warranting 999 calls.

Meanwhile, schools in Sheffield and elsewhere are pushing radical race doctrine claiming "Black people cannot be racist" towards white people because they supposedly lack "power."

Materials for seven-year-olds hammer home "white privilege" and demand kids monitor their language and report peers.

Related efforts include schools pressured over "Islamophobic" children's drawings that could be deemed blasphemous under Islamic law, books celebrating small boat migrants and telling kids there's "plenty of room" for unlimited crossings, government pushes to snitch on "anti-Muslim hostility," and even a video game flagging kids who question mass migration as potential extremists.

The pattern is clear: British children's innocence is collateral damage in the drive to enforce woke orthodoxy and cultural replacement.

Add in the 2025 case of a toddler under four expelled from nursery for "transphobia" - likely just innocent curiosity - and the picture is complete.

While authorities obsess over logging baby "assaults" and policing toddler speech, genuine safeguarding issues fester.

Child-on-child sexual abuse is a recognised national concern requiring police referral regardless of age. County lines exploitation preys on the vulnerable.

Yet the response often defaults to bureaucratic box-ticking and ideological reprogramming rather than addressing root causes like family breakdown, open borders straining social services, and education systems more focused on dividing kids by race than teaching right from wrong.

Critics are right to call this Orwellian. Toddlers cannot meaningfully hold racist or transphobic beliefs - they lack the cognitive framework.

Projecting adult political neuroses onto them turns childhood into a minefield of potential reports and exclusions. It erodes parental authority and normal development in favour of state-approved conformity.

This is the inevitable endpoint of a cultural shift that prioritises grievance hierarchies, mass demographic change without integration, and "anti-racism" that actually fosters resentment.

Parents see their kids labelled suspects or bigots for normal behaviour while institutions bend over backwards to accommodate sensitivities that clash with British norms.

The solution starts with rejecting this madness. Reclaim education for basics like reading, maths, and personal responsibility. Prioritise actual child protection over ideological score-settling. Push back against the surveillance state treating every playground as a crime scene or re-education camp.

British children deserve a childhood free from this nonsense - one rooted in reality, freedom, and common sense.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 03:30

Where Inflation Is Highest In Europe In 2026

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 06:45:00 +0000

Where Inflation Is Highest In Europe In 2026

Inflation has eased from its recent peaks, but price growth remains stubbornly high across much of Europe.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, ranks 36 European countries by annual inflation rate, using the latest available 2026 data from Eurostat and the UK Parliament.

Annual inflation measures how much consumer prices have risen over the previous 12 months, such as from April 2025 to April 2026.

Where Inflation is Highest in Early 2026 in Europe

Romania has the highest inflation rate in Europe at 9.0%, followed by Kosovo at 6.5% and Bulgaria at 6.2%. Several of the highest-inflation countries are in Southeastern Europe, highlighting how price pressures remain especially elevated in parts of the region.

This data table ranks European countries by their annual inflation rates as of early 2026.

Romania, the largest economy in Southeastern Europe, faces a crisis on three fronts: high inflation, a multi-month economic recession, and a protracted political crisis that imperils governmental efforts to rein in the country’s fiscal deficit, the largest in Europe.

Inflation in recent months has climbed not only because of food and fuel prices, but also due to rising rents.

Inflation is equally politically sensitive in neighboring Bulgaria, given the country’s recent adoption of the euro in January 2026. Many in the country had feared that joining the eurozone would contribute to rising prices for everyday goods.

The Success Stories of Europe

The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank all maintain a 2% inflation target. Only four European countries fall within this target range as of March 2026: Czechia and Sweden (1.5%), Denmark (1%), and Switzerland (0.6%).

Interestingly, none of these countries use the euro as their national currency, although both the Czech Republic and Sweden are theoretically expected to join the eurozone upon satisfying certain criteria. Denmark has negotiated an opt-out.

Switzerland’s inflation rate is not only the lowest in Europe, but also among the lowest worldwide. The small Alpine country has successfully navigated international turbulence without seeing large-scale price increases.

It has also managed to avoid deflation (negative inflation), another key part of the Swiss National Bank’s mandate.

Inflation in Europe’s Major Economies

The major European economies today each grapple with inflation rates above the targets set by the ECB and other central banks.

France (2.5%), Germany (2.9%), and the United Kingdom (3.3%) are all facing substantial cost-of-living increases, driven partly by rising energy prices linked to geopolitical conflicts such as the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Persistent inflation has also kept cost-of-living pressures high, making price stability a central political issue across many of Europe’s largest economies.

Wondering where rising prices can be seen most clearly? Check out Where Inflation Has Hit the Hardest (2000–2025) on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 02:45

Norway Wants To Lead A "Viking Bloc" For Containing Russia In Northern Europe

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 06:00:00 +0000

Norway Wants To Lead A "Viking Bloc" For Containing Russia In Northern Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It can simultaneously threaten Russia along the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts.

Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov gave a brief interview to TASS about bilateral relations. He warned that Norway is integrating new NATO members Sweden and Finland into the bloc’s regional plans. More American military bases and NATO facilities are opening up there too. To make matters worse, 32,500 troops from 14 NATO countries in last March’s “Cold Response” military drills in Norway and Finland’s northern regions, which add to growing NATO threats to Russia from this direction.

NATO’s militarization of the Arctic, which also includes artificially engineered tensions over the demilitarized Svalbard Archipelago, is proceeding in parallel with its militarization of the Baltic.

Korchunov believes that this raises the risk of the bloc one day attempting to blockade Russia. He reassured his compatriots that the authorities will defend their country’s interests, however, including through military-technical means in an allusion to new naval escorts of some commercial vessels.

In connection with blockade scenarios, Korchunov was asked about TASS’ report from early April about how “Ukraine readies terrorist attacks on Russian ships off coast of Norway”, which he said caused quite a stir in his host country. He didn’t elaborate on how exactly Russia plans to deter or defend against potential Ukrainian drone attacks from Norway, but he ominously warned that escalating threats to Russia from Norway “will inevitably lead to a directly proportional increase in risks for Norway itself.”

Korchunov wasn’t asked about it in his interview, but the week prior to its release, the UK announced that it’ll lead a new multilateral naval initiative against Russia with Norway and eight others. This goes to show Norway’s growing role in threatening Russia through blockade scenarios, whether they’re in its neighboring Arctic region and/or the nearby Baltic one. As a founding member of NATO, Norway seems to believe that this obligates it to lead Russia’s containment in Northern Europe.

To that end, it’s functioning as Sweden and Finland’s “big brother” in NATO while actively cooperating with the UK, one of Russia’s historical nemeses. This enables Norway to simultaneously advance Russia’s containment along the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts. Given its oil wealth, Norway could also extend military loans to its “little brothers” for accelerating their military buildups and the subsequent creation of a northern regional command against Russia as part of the US’ “NATO 3.0” plans.

The preceding insight draws attention to one of the ways in which multipolarity is reshaping Europe, namely through the trend of regional military integration, whether it’s Norway wanting to lead a nascent “Viking Bloc” or Poland trying to restore its lost Great Power status in Central and Eastern Europe. The Anglo-American Axis is managing this division of military-strategic labor, with the US being the senior partner and the UK being the junior one, and they plan to replicate this model elsewhere in Eurasia.

Apart from Norway and Poland’s regional military blocs, Romania provides this duopoly with reach into Moldova and the Black Sea, while Turkiye expands their influence in the Black Sea but also the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia via the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”. There’s also AUKUS+, which could prospectively include Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and even Indonesia. The emerging result is “The Globalization of NATO” with multipolar characteristics.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 02:00

The Pentagon's Next Critical Minerals Source Is Already In Its Own Warehouses

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 03:25:00 +0000

The Pentagon's Next Critical Minerals Source Is Already In Its Own Warehouses

Authored by Matt Bedingfield via RealClearDefenseolitics,

Last week, U.S. Navy destroyers began escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom, the most aggressive American action in the strait since Iran shut it down in March.

The naval blockade of Iranian ports is now in its fifth week. U.S. warships are running mine-clearance operations, intercepting Iranian-flagged cargo, and absorbing drone threats daily. And the permanent magnets in those destroyers' guidance systems are still refined in China. So are the rare earths in their radar arrays and the cobalt in their battery backups. The war just proved what the 2027 DFARS deadline already assumed: we cannot fight a conflict while depending on an adversary for the materials inside our own weapons.

And the Pentagon's largest untapped source of those materials is already sitting in its own warehouses.

The Pentagon has a multi-year backlog of classified electronics it can't destroy fast enough. It also has a critical minerals shortage it can't solve fast enough. The copper, gold, palladium, silver, and tin locked inside those warehoused devices are exactly the metals it's spending billions to source elsewhere. That elsewhere, increasingly, can't be China. Beginning January 1, 2027, the Pentagon can no longer enter contracts for materials mined, refined, or separated in China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.

The Numbers Don’t Work

The United States generates roughly eight million metric tons of e-waste every year, and the number is climbing. AI infrastructure is accelerating the cycle. Data centers replace server hardware every three to five years. Each generation of defense electronics contains more critical minerals than the last.

Only about 15 percent of U.S. e-waste gets recycled. And that figure hides a deeper problem. The printed circuit boards inside those devices, the components richest in strategic metals, are almost entirely exported overseas for processing. None of the recovered metals stay here without first leaving.

Washington isn't ignoring it. Project Vault, the administration's $12 billion critical minerals stockpile, is a serious commitment. The Department of Energy just opened a $500 million funding opportunity for domestic critical minerals recycling. There's talk of export restrictions on raw e-waste. But before we build a fence around these materials, we first need something inside it: the domestic capacity to process them onshore.

If an export ban went into effect tomorrow, we'd pile up a mountain of e-waste with no way to recover what's inside. That's the capability gap. New mines take a decade to permit. Traditional smelters cost a billion dollars and take seven to ten years to build. Neither delivers the batch-level traceability federal compliance now demands. The 2027 deadline will not wait.

A Faster Path Already Exists

A new generation of hydrometallurgical processing, including biosorption, can recover high-purity metals from end-of-life electronics at commercial scale without the footprint of a smelter. These facilities can be built in about 15 months for roughly $40 million each. They maintain full chain of custody from waste stream to refined metal. And the upstream supply chain already exists: some 900 certified e-waste recyclers operate across the country today. What's missing is the domestic processing capacity to keep those metals here.

This isn't theoretical. My company, Mint Innovation, proved the model last month when HP announced the PC industry's first certified closed-loop recycled copper. Copper recovered from HP's own end-of-life circuit boards, independently certified, placed back into new HP products. The same technology can close the loop for the Department of War. Add mobile destruction units that process classified hardware on site, feeding directly into domestic metal recovery with no offshore processing, and the result is full auditability from destruction to refined metal.

When I testified before Congress on this issue, not a single member pushed back on the diagnosis. This is one of those rare problems that doesn't break along party lines. The FY 2026 NDAA recognized the potential of recycled-material pathways by expanding exceptions within DFARS sourcing restrictions. Congress has opened the door. The Pentagon needs to walk through it.

A Framework Is Already in Place

The United States doesn't have to do this alone. The State Department's Pax Silica initiative and the February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial established a framework for allied cooperation with Japan, Australia, the U.K., South Korea, and others. Five Eyes nations are already coordinating to counter Chinese price manipulation and build friendshored supply chains. Domestic e-waste processing fits squarely into that strategy. A modular biosorption facility built in the U.S. today becomes a template Pax Silica partners can replicate tomorrow.

Modular secure destruction facilities co-located on military installations could clear classified hardware backlogs and recover critical minerals simultaneously. A security liability becomes a strategic asset.

The fastest way to build a domestic critical minerals supply chain is to recover the metals already here. The Pentagon is sitting on both the problem and the solution.

* * *

Matt Bedingfield is President of Mint Innovation, a recycling technology company that recovers critical minerals from electronic waste using proprietary biosorption and hydrometallurgical processing. Mint partnered with HP earlier this year to produce the PC industry's first certified closed-loop recycled copper.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 23:25

BBC Report Portrays Islamic Child Slavery In Afghanistan As Necessary

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 03:00:00 +0000

BBC Report Portrays Islamic Child Slavery In Afghanistan As Necessary

Anti-immigration movements in the US and Europe have been saying it for years: The Islamic world is barbaric and backwards, built on archaic ideas that are completely antithetical to western values. Yet, progressive governments and their media allies continue in their attempts to portray these cultures as "the same", or, as sympathetic.

The historical Islamic justification for child marriage comes from the story in the Hadith of Muhammad's marriage to a 6-year-old girl named Aisha, which he consummated when she turned age 9. Apologists often claim this is limited to the poor rural backwaters of places like Afghanistan, but it is common in Iran, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq and even Egypt. And, in many cases these children are sold into marriage in exchange for monetary compensation or property.

In a recent BBC report from journalists in Afghanistan child marriages are examined in dark detail, yet, the BBC seems to place more sympathy on the parents (fathers) selling their daughters for coin while ignoring the grotesque nature of the tradition. In other words, blame the economic circumstances, not the parents doing the selling.

However, this narrative glosses over the fact that child sex slavery is a longstanding problem in Muslim culture, not a new trend spurred on by recent economic distress. The outlet presents the families selling children as sympathetic, suggesting that the children will be sold, likely into a life of sexual abuse, but at least they will still be alive.

No blame is places on the fathers who are either too incompetent or too lazy to secure the basic needs of their own children. And no blame is placed on the culture which normalizes the practice. In fact, the BBC diverts blame to the loss of foreign funding from outside governments and NGOs.

This is a thinly veiled propaganda hit by the BBC. Afghanistan received substantial funding from the US through the now defunct USAID institution under the Biden Administration. USAID dispersed nearly $4 billion to Afghanistan from 2021 to 2025 until it was shut down by Trump and DOGE. The message seems to be "This is Trump's fault".

Keep in mind, Biden abruptly pulled all troops and private contractors out of Afghanistan in 2021, allowing the Taliban to retake government power and inflict the oppressive theocratic authoritarianism that leads to the conditions the BBC dramatically outlines. Little girls not being allowed to go to school is a direct result of Sharia Law, which is a direct result of Biden leaving Afghanistan in Taliban hands (along with billions of dollars in US military equipment).

Thus, the only value of girls in the Afghan economy is as slaves for sale. The worst part is that, in many cases, these girls are sold for marriage to relatives. Meaning, they will eventually be forced to bear children through inbreeding.

Only 15 years ago this behavior was widely admonished in the western media. Today, it is shielded with spin in the name of protecting the multicultural agenda.

The most interesting aspect of the BBC report is the way in which they build a narrative of distraction rather than addressing the cultural elephant in the room. Their goal was apparently to showcase the dire effects of foreign funding cuts, but they ended up proving once again why the west should have nothing to do with the third world.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 23:00

Washington State Under Federal Investigation For Housing Men In Women's Prisons

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 02:35:00 +0000

Washington State Under Federal Investigation For Housing Men In Women's Prisons

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced May 19 that its agents have launched an investigation into Washington State’s practice of housing male inmates in women’s prisons.

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson speaks during a news conference outside the Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma, Wash. on April 28, 2026. Nick Wagner/The Seattle Times via AP

Gov. Bob Ferguson was notified in writing of the federal probe into an alleged pattern of “violating the constitutional rights of female prisoners incarcerated at the Washington Corrections Center for Women in Gig Harbor, Washington,” the DOJ stated.

The investigation is based on allegations that the prison has failed to protect female prisoners from sexual assaults, rape, voyeurism, and sexual intimidation by males who identify as females housed with them at the facility.

Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division said the practice would be a violation of the prisoners’ Eighth Amendment protections from cruel and unusual punishment.

“Under my leadership, the Civil Rights Division will not allow women incarcerated in jails or prisons to be subject to unconstitutional risks of harm from male inmates,” Dhillon said in a statement. “The constitutional rights of women cannot be sacrificed at the altar of appeasing unsupported and dangerous ideologies.”

The Washington State Department of Corrections adopted a policy in 2020 to allow men who identify as transgender to request a transfer to women’s facilities. The policy requires housing accommodations for inmates who are transgender, intersex, and gender-neutral to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

The state is one of a small number of states to adopt similar policies. Maine, California, New York, Minnesota, and New Jersey also allow people who identify as transgender to be housed in a prison that matches their choice in gender. California and Maine were notified in March that their policies were also under investigation.

The DOJ said it was also collecting information from the public on men housed in women’s jails and prisons anywhere in the country as part of a wider investigation.

Investigating transgender prison policies is part of the Trump administration’s program to eliminate “gender ideology extremism and restore biological truth to the federal government,” which was an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in 2025.

The DOJ plans to review policies at the Washington prison and the Department of Corrections, and any evidence that has been reported. Federal investigators will work with the state to remedy any violations, according to the letter.

The investigation comes weeks after the America First Policy Institute, a right-leaning nonprofit think tank, filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s corrections policy, alleging it has led to violence, sexual abuse, intimidation, and fear among female inmates.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon, accompanied by her aides, speaks at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The complaint was filed on behalf of the Foundation Against Intolerance and Racism, Fair for All, Inc., and Faith Booher-Smith, an inmate who was allegedly violently attacked by a transgender inmate at the prison in 2025.

In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs claim female inmates have been forced to share cells, showers, bathrooms, and other intimate living spaces with male inmates, stripping them of the sex-based protections of a women’s prison.

“A women’s prison is supposed to protect women,” said Leigh Ann O’Neill, chief legal affairs officer at the institute. “Washington’s policy turned that basic duty on its head.”

The Washington governor’s office did not return a request for comment about the investigation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 22:35

1 In 5 Jobs Faces High Risk Of AI Automation

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 02:10:00 +0000

1 In 5 Jobs Faces High Risk Of AI Automation

As concerns about AI-driven job losses grow, new research sheds light on how artificial intelligence could impact the U.S. labor market in the short term.

According to an OpenAI framework analyzing how AI affects different occupations, published last April, nearly half of all jobs (46 percent) are expected to see little immediate change, while around 24 percent are likely to be reorganized as tasks shift rather than disappear.

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiaut shows in the chart below, a smaller but still significant share of roles face more direct disruption, with roughly one in five jobs (18 percent) categorized as being at high risk of automation.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the same time, only about 12 percent of roles could actually grow with AI, as lower costs and increased productivity expand demand for certain services.

The findings suggest that exposure to AI does not automatically translate into job losses. Instead, outcomes depend on factors such as how essential human input remains and whether increased demand for a product or service is sufficient to offset lower labor demand from efficiency gains.

In many cases, AI is therefore likely to reshape tasks and workflows rather than eliminate entire occupations.

While other recent studies have pointed to a higher risk for job displacement, OpenAI’s analysis suggests a more nuanced picture of how the labor market may evolve.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 22:10

Could Deep Blue California Elect A Republican Governor?

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 May 2026 01:45:00 +0000

Could Deep Blue California Elect A Republican Governor?

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times,

As tensions mount in the high stakes race for California governor, early results show Republicans have returned more than 905,000 ballots ahead of the June 2 primary election—a massive surge compared with the last governor’s race during the 2022 midterms.

Ballots from Republicans made up 37 percent of the early ballot returns—up 11 percent from four years ago at this point in the primary process, while those from Democratic voters have dropped by 13 percent, according to a Political Data (PDI) poll released on May 16.

Most of the ballots submitted so far—54 percent—were cast by voters 65 and older, while about 10 percent of voters ages 18-34 have returned early ballots.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Republican Steve Hilton, a political commentator, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary, essentially tied, each with about 20 percent of the vote, followed by Democratic billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer at 14 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 13 percent. The rest of the candidates show less than 10 percent support.

Hilton has publicly pressured Bianco to drop out of the race to avoid splitting the Republican vote, ensuring that at least one GOP candidate—himself—advances to the general election. But at the CBS-hosted televised debate on April 28, Bianco rejected the notion, saying he and Hilton will both be on the Nov. 3 ballot.

‘Break the Glass’ Strategy

Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is terming out, told reporters at his recent state budget presentation he’s confident a Democrat will be on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Newsom alluded to a “break the glass” strategy to prevent a Democrat lockout in the nonpartisan, jungle primary, which allows the possibility of two Republicans—no Democrats—on the general election ballot.

“I don’t anticipate this need to be the case, but there’s a like break-the-glass scenario,” he said. “There’s many people that have a deep understanding of what it would look like if Democrats were locked out, and we’re going to do everything to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

The Democratic Governors Association has recently sent out mailers positioning Hilton as the top GOP threat, which could drive Bianco supporters to Hilton, making it more likely for a Democrat to finish in the top two.

“The Democrats wouldn’t be spending money trying to help Steve if they weren’t scared of me,” Bianco posted on X.

Steve Hilton speaks during a gubernatorial candidate forum in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP Photo

Democratic Strategy Favors Hilton

Rob Pyers, a nonpartisan political analyst and research director for California Target Book, suggested the Democrats prefer to run against Hilton.

“The Democratic Governors Association really wants GOP voters to know that Steve Hilton is ‘Endorsed by Trump’ and ‘Pro MAGA’, and that they would be devastated if he advanced out of California’s top two primary alongside a Democrat,” Rob Pyers wrote on X.

When Amy Reichert, a San Diego based conservative activist, asked if the mailer from the Democrats was only mailed to Republicans to bump Hilton to the top two spot, Pyers said that “appears to be the case.”

Pyers replied that the “attack ads” contain “language tailored to appeal to conservative primary voters and to highlight Hilton’s Trump endorsement.

He noted that a Democrat versus Democrat race “would suck up hundreds of millions of dollars” that could be spent elsewhere.

“A D vs R race, not so much,” he wrote.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco fields questions from reporters and students following the California Governor’s Debate hosted by CBS at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif., on April 28, 2026. Brad Jones/The Epoch Times

Bianco’s Response

Bianco said in a text message to The Epoch Times on May 18 that Californians are voting differently in this election because they’re tired of dishonesty and corruption and “are absolutely sick of politicians rigging the system for their own benefit.”

“Newsom has never said one word in the past when two Democrats have moved on to the general elections,” he said.

“Saying the corrupt part out loud, exposing their plans to again rig the system, is exactly why people are voting different,” he said.

Corruption Scandal

As Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary during the Biden administration, Becerra has come under fire from critics who blamed him for putting migrant children at risk of trafficking when the agency lost track of 85,000 migrant children.

During his tenure at HHS from March 19, 2021, to Jan. 20, 2025, Becerra also faced scrutiny over tenuous ties to a corruption scandal involving his former aide Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to his role in an alleged scheme to skim funds from a dormant campaign account for a “no-show” job for his wife.

A Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC) complaint against Becerra over the alleged violation of state campaign finance laws remains open and unresolved. The complaint hinges on Becerra’s dormant state Attorney General campaign funds, which were allegedly used to pay out tens of thousands of dollars to his former adviser’s firm months after Becerra was appointed HHS secretary.

Political consultant Dana Williamson, Newsom’s former chief of staff, has also pleaded guilty in the case, admitting to conspiracy to commit bank fraud and wire fraud, subscribing to a false tax return, and making false statements to a federal agent.

California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra at a campaign event in Los Angeles on April 18, 2026. Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

Becerra has not been charged with any crimes or been accused of any wrongdoing related to the federal investigation, and has repeatedly denied any knowledge of illegal campaign fund transfers.

He also faced scorn over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some recent polls, including an Emerson poll, show Becerra with a slight lead while others show Hilton is the frontrunner.

Becerra surged into the lead among Democratic voters when disgraced then-congressman Eric Swalwell dropped out of the governor’s race in April amid sexual assault allegations. Swalwell resigned from Congress about a week later. Swalwell is under investigation but no criminal charges have been filed to date.

Official primary ballots list 61 candidates for governor, including Swalwell and former state controller Betty Yee, who has also dropped out of the race.

Political Predictions

According to Polymarket, an online betting house which claims 90-percent accuracy in predicting event outcomes one month ahead and 94 percent four hours before an event, the odds favor Becerra with a 58 percent chance of winning the election in a Democrat versus Democrat race in the Nov. 3 election followed by Steyer with a 28 percent chance. Hilton is ranked with a 10 percent chance and Bianco at 3 percent as of May 18.

Source: Polymarket

The Cook Political Report shows the California governor race as “Solid D” with partisan voter index score of “D +12,” which means the state, on average , is 12 percentage points more Democratic than the rest of the nation and indicates that statewide Democratic candidates have an entrenched advantage.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also shows the California governorship as “Safe D.”

Tom Steyer speaks during a gubernatorial candidate forum on Latino and immigrant communities in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP Photo

Campaign Finances

According to Transparency USA, as of May 19, Becerra was running a $3.3 million campaign deficit, taking in about $6.3 million in donations but spending more than $9.6 million. His campaign spending is mainly attributed to aggressive advertising.

A billionaire environmental activist, Steyer has raised about $134 million and spent about $255 million, He is on track to outspend Meg Whitman, a former eBay executive, who set a $159 million campaign spending record in her unsuccessful bid for governor in 2010.

Steyer’s wealth stems mainly from hedge fund investments in fossil fuels and private prisons, which his political opponents have used against him despite his progressive bent.

Steyer is facing an FPPC investigation over allegations his campaign paid social media influencers to post promotional videos without including legally required sponsored content disclosures.

Hilton has raised about $9.8 million and spent about $8.9 million, while Bianco has raised about $5.3 million and spent about $4.2 million.

The Issues

Several lively debates have drawn the national media spotlight on hot-button issues including the high cost of living in California—especially housing, tuition, and state taxes on gasoline—and ongoing problems with homelessness, the drug crisis, crime and public safety, and illegal immigration.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 21:45