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Trump On Iran Halting Talks: 'I Don't Care' - Will 'Keep Blockade', Not Worried About Oil Prices

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:15:00 +0000

Trump On Iran Halting Talks: 'I Don't Care' - Will 'Keep Blockade', Not Worried About Oil Prices

Summary

Iran announces halt to all exchanges with US, citing Israeli aggression in Lebanon. Trump says 'haven't heard' this from Tehran, vows to keep US naval blockade in place.
Iran overnight initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch.
The US bombed radar & drone sites in Iran in response to the Iranians having shot down a US drone over the weekend. Reports of foreign jets over Iranian airspace.
Iran negotiator Ghalibaf charges US with breaking the ceasefire: "the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon" were "clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire."
Yemen's Houthis warn they are ready to join Hezbollah's military efforts against Israel.
Trump Truth Social: "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - it always does!"

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Yes 39% · No 62%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

* * *

Trump to CNBC: 'I don't care' if talks are over

Trump has shrugged off the apparent collapse of talks with Iran, after Tehran earlier said it has halted all communications with Washington over Israel's expanded assault on Lebanon and Hezbollah. Trump has freshly told CNBC by phone, "I don’t care if they’re over, honestly."

"I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less," he added, and indicated he was "going to ask" Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "what’s going on with Lebanon." This suggests Trump could pressure America's ally to lower tensions.

Trump appears to be betting the US can 'outlast' the Islamic Republic, in terms of inflicting economic pain amid the growing global oil supply crisis due to the Hormuz Strait closure. On this, he reacted as follows:

He also said he wasn't worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report in Iranian state media that Tehran is vowing to “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz in addition to halting negotiations.

“I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,” Trump said.

Trump Reacts

President Trump tells NBC News that he's not heard from Iran on reports they're suspending talks, and on Iran, "I think we've been talking too much if you want to know the truth, going silent would be very good"

We'll keep the blockade in Hormuz.

I think I can wait as long as they want. They're losing a fortune.

His comments to NBC:

“It’s an appropriate thing to say, because they’re better negotiators than they are fighters,” he said in a brief phone call. “But they haven’t informed us of that.”

“It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there,” added Trump, who said Friday he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend an ostensible ceasefire agreed to in early April. “We’ll keep the blockade.”

State Media: Iran Stops Exchanging Messages with US

Merely last week, Western MSM press reports were touting the usual 'close to a deal' headlines, but this morning demonstrates how illusory such claims were and are, as Iranian state media now suggests a total halt in communications between the sides.

Per state Tasnim, "Iran stops exchanging messages with the US in protest against Zionist crimes." This as the IDF has sent ground forces deep into Lebanon, past the Litani River - in the deepest operation in decades. Tehran has insisted on linking up any US-Iran deal with a Israel-Lebanon peace. Tehran is now warning to "completely block the Strait of Hormuz, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait" - the latter with the cooperation of Yemen's Houthis. All of this has direct impact on the US-Iran ceasefire:

IRAN'S STATE TV SAYS PROBABILITY OF CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND U.S. ENDING IS HIGH IF ATTACKS ON LEBANON DO NOT STOP

Below is the full translated statement:

• "The determination of the Iranian armed forces and all axes of the resistance front to respond to Zionist crimes and open new fronts".

• "Tasnim has obtained information indicating that, given the continuation of the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team is stopping "talks and exchange of texts through a mediator"."

• "The immediate cessation of the Zionist regime's aggressive and brutal army operations in Gaza and Lebanon and the necessity of the regime's complete withdrawal from the occupied areas in Lebanon have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators, and there will be no talks until Iran and the resistance's views on this matter are met".

• "Also, the Resistance Front and Iran have set their agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, and activate other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters".

Oil jumps on the headline of halted talks...

Futures slide...

Author and University of Chicago professor of the 'realist' school Robert Pape says the following on Monday published report: "We will run out of our cushion of oil inventories in July, whether it's the middle or end of July," he said. "And Iran knows that. So what Iran is doing is just stringing out the clock to get a better deal."

"What that tells me is they're not interested in returning the price of oil back to where it was before the war," he said. "I think what we need to understand is Iran's goal is to continue instability, continue elevated price of the world's oil because it gains from that."

For more, read our:

"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

CENTCOM: Intercepted Pair of Ballistic Missiles on Base

On Monday morning US Central Command issued its official statement and explanation over the earlier tit-for-tat brief flare-up in fighting, which appears to have ended...

"Last night at 11 p.m. ET, U.S. forces successfully intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait. These missiles were immediately defeated and no American personnel were harmed," it said. "U.S. Central Command remains vigilant and will continue to protect our forces from Iranian aggression while supporting the ongoing ceasefire."

Fresh Missiles on Kuwait

The extended US-Iran ceasefire is once again being severely tested, after Iran earlier in the daylight hours of Monday initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch. Kuwait in turn confirmed that has been intercepting inbound drone and missile fire.

It hosts a major American base, which is again being targeted, though it's unclear if anything has been hit. The IRGC subsequently identified that it targeted the US base in response to weekend US strikes on Iranian sites. According to a description of the released propaganda video:

The start of the video includes a close-up of what looks to be a sticker on the body of a missile depicting a bruised US president Donald Trump, on the phone asking for help, and overlaid on a “closed” Strait of Hormuz. The caption reads: “Until the last American soldier leaves the region.”

Iran's IRGC released footage showing the moment it launched missile attacks on what it claimed to be US airbases in Kuwait early Monday.

READ MORE: https://t.co/yRpPilUQ9S pic.twitter.com/f1Q2l5OnMu
— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) June 1, 2026

All sides, including the Iranians and Kuwaitis, are saying they have a right to defend themselves. The United States, for its part, has said that it bombed radar and drone sites in Iran in response to the Iranians having shot down a US drone over the weekend.

Kuwait, GCC Condemnation

After the US base in Kuwait was freshly targeted, Kuwait's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates the State of Kuwait’s condemnation and denunciation, in the strongest terms, of the heinous and repeated Iranian attacks, which represent a dangerous escalation and a direct assault on the security and stability of the State of Kuwait, as well as a flagrant violation of the rules of international law, the United Nations Charter, and Security Council Resolution 2817 of 2026, not to mention the grave threat they pose to the safety of civilians and vital facilities in the country," it said in a post on X.

"The continuation and repetition of these aggressions undermine efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions and threaten security and stability in the region, emphasizing the State of Kuwait’s categorical rejection of these aggressive practices," it added.

Also, a swift reaction was issued by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It expressed its "strongest condemnation" of Iran for its attack on Kuwait, blasting it as a "dangerous and irresponsible escalation". Saying Kuwait remains a crucial part of the GCC, the bloc stated it stands "united and firm" and they fully support "all the measures and procedures it [Kuwait] takes to protect its security, preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and maintain the security of its citizens and residents."

IRGC Navy seeks to flex with increasing fast boat patrols of Strait of Hormuz:

IRGC fast boats running 24/7 patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, per new footage from Iran's navy. The boats are steering commercial vessels through the waterway and intercepting any that don't follow orders. pic.twitter.com/tG5Vh71DMK
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 1, 2026

Iran Latest Warnings: "The Bill Comes Due"; Ceasefire Breached

Top Iranian negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said that the continued American naval blockade of Iran's ports and Israel's intensifying offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon illustrate that the US is not truly complying with the ceasefire.

He wrote on X that "the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon" were "clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire." He stressed by way of warning: "Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due. It will all fall into place."

As things in Lebanon intensify, given the IDF has plunged past the Litani River and plans to expand its ground force occupation. Yemen's Houthis say they are ready to join Hezbollah's efforts against Israel, per Tasnim. Iran's Foreign Ministry has also freshly addressed the Lebanon crisis:

For immediate attention:

The ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

Its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts.

The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 1, 2026

More...

Iran's FM Spokesperson Baghaei: The other side keeps shifting its demands and sending contradictory messages, which is dragging out negotiations. Israel's escalation in Lebanon is aimed at destroying any chance diplomacy could work. The U.S. and Israel cannot be seen as separate.… pic.twitter.com/VFbOUwX9V2
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 1, 2026

Trump: "Sit Back & Relax"

Trump's latest Truth Social: "Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - it always does!"

And here's pushback from Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy magazine:

Although we don’t know the details of the rumored agreement between the United States and Iran—or even if one will eventually be reached—anyone with a triple-digit IQ understands that Israel and the United States made a colossal blunder when they started the war. None of their stated goals have been achieved: The Iranian regime did not collapse, it did not surrender its nuclear stockpile, and its missile and drone capabilities are intact. It has demonstrated that it can shut down the Strait of Hormuz anytime it wants to inflict significant damage on its neighbors. All of U.S. President Donald Trump’s and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s bragging and bluster over the past three months has been exposed as a lot of hot air.

Iran Touts More Breaches of US Blockade

A total of 15 vessels, including four oil tankers, have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The IRGC navy confirmed that the ships only completed their passage after receiving explicit permission and coordinating directly with its command structure. Washington and its Gulf allies (with the exception of Oman) have repeatedly condemned any attempt to impose an 'Iranian protocol' involving the extraction of tolls.

In an official statement carried by Fars News, the IRGC issued a stark warning to the region, declaring that any cooperation with "hostile forces" would be viewed by Tehran as an "imminent security threat" that will be "dealt with accordingly". This is tantamount to warning foreign vessels they could come under direct attack if they don't comply.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

Iran may propose changes to the US peace draft memorandum of understanding, according to Tasnim. This follows a report that President Trump proposed further changes to the existing text, while a source stated that text exchanges continue and that Iran may submit its own edits.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told state media that talks and message exchanges with the US are ongoing, and that the talks cannot be judged until a clear result is reached.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the negotiation team's visit to Qatar was positive.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that they have a legal obligation to prevent aggressors from using their territory and facilities to attack another country.
Iran’s Presidential Office denied reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian submitted his resignation to the Supreme Leader, and stated that the stories were spread by some foreign media.
Iranian Supreme Leader’s military adviser Mohsen Rezaei said Iran has no intention of yielding or compromising with the US and will not place itself in a weak position, while he also stated that US President Trump is betraying diplomacy for the third time by continuing a naval blockade on Iran and making excessive demands.
IRGC said following aggression of US Army on a communication tower on Sirik Island, located in the Homozgan province an hour ago, fighters of the IRGC Aerospace Force targeted airbase where aggression originated and predicted targets were destroyed.
Iran's top negotiator said "The naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon by the genocidal Zionist regime are clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire".
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said at this moment they do not believe that the US has good intentions towards Iran.
Iran's FM Baghaei said "No negotiations have taken place on the details of the nuclear issue at this stage". One point being discussed is the allocation of funds for reconstruction. We are considering options for responding to the escalation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Iran's Baghaei said a ceasefire in Lebanon is an integral part of any agreement and end to the war; lack of trust and constant change in US and Israeli positions in Lebanon are causing a delay on the diplomatic process. The continuation of maritime piracy and attacks on Iranian shipping is an example of a violation of the ceasefire. The diplomatic apparatus is closely following developments and we will take every measure to defend Iran's sovereignty. The exchange of messages is still ongoing.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Iran's goal is not to hold ships in the Strait, but to declare a procedure that is not contrary to international law; these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down. Stopping ships behind the Strait of Hormuz incurs storage and delay costs, and war insurance has increased by up to 500%. Accompanying Iranian forces costs less than war insurance and eliminates the risk of stoppage, inspection, and seizure. Iran's goal is not to hold the ships, but to declare a procedure that is not contrary to international law; these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down.
"Three consecutive explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas", Iran International reported.
US President Trump reportedly sent tougher terms to Iran regarding the peace framework, according to officials cited by The New York Times.
US President Trump posted "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us". Full post "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively “chirping,” at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does! President DJT".
US President Trump posted "Fake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon". Full post "ScraperFake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon. It then goes on, in very strong and lengthy detail, to discuss various other aspects of Nuclear. In fact, that’s what most of the agreement is about. CNN, and so many others in the Fake News Media, is a Low Ratings disaster. Even with new ownership, it is unlikely to ever get better!!! President DJT".
US Secretary of State Rubio spoke in the last 48 hours with Lebanon's President and Israel's PM to try and promote a new ceasefire initiative, according to a senior US official cited by Axios's Ravid. said:. US senior official said that the new initiative was proposed as part of the negotiations taking place between Israel and Lebanon, as another round of talks between diplomats from both sides is scheduled to take place this week in Washington. In order to advance the talks, US proposed that as a first step, Hezbollah stop all attacks on Israel, and in return, Israel will refrain from escalation in Beirut.
US Central Command confirmed military forces conducted strikes against Iranian radar at command and control sites located in Goruk and Qeshm Island over the weekend.
Kuwait Army said air defences are intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:15

This Is How Leftists React To Facts...

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:05:00 +0000

This Is How Leftists React To Facts...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

When presented with uncomfortable irrefutable statistics on migrant crime, those on the left don’t debate—they threaten violence and scream about history as an excuse for chaos today.

That’s exactly what unfolded outside the Delaney Hall ICE detention facility in Newark, New Jersey, Saunday. GB News chief US correspondent Ben Leo was on the ground covering anti-ICE protests—already marked by days of clashes, a hunger strike by detainees, and assaults on officers—when he calmly laid out basic facts about illegal migrant crime patterns in the UK while engaging with the ‘protesters’.

The furious black nationalist got inches from Leo’s face, accused Brits of colonizing the world “through rape, murder and pillaging,” and warned he was “holding everything back not to break your f***ing jaw.”

Me: certain nationalities in UK are more likely to commit sexual offences than Brits

Leftist nutcase: “I’m gonna break your f*****g jaw.”

ICE detention facility in New Jersey.

I’m not surprised Charlie Kirk was murdered. These people are lunatics. pic.twitter.com/ET8GzoJhCM
— Ben Leo (@Benleo) May 31, 2026

Leo stood his ground without flinching. Lurking right behind the seething guy, a spectacled soy leftist pathetically attempted to pile on, weakly joining the intimidation effort by demanding Leo “go back to your country”—the height of irony at an open-borders rally.

The incident, captured on video and shared widely, shows how facts about immigration enforcement trigger outright rage from open-borders activists. While ICE works to secure America’s borders under policies prioritizing law and order, protesters treat any challenge to mass migration as a personal attack worth physical intimidation.

In the clip, Leo began by referencing data showing certain nationalities in the UK are disproportionately involved in sexual offences compared to native Brits. The protester immediately pivoted to colonial history.

“The BRITS that colonised the whole world you mean? That raped and pillaged the WHOLE WORLD to get the power they have THE BRITS,” he shouts.

“YEAH The BRITS who did THAT. And YOU guys have the audacity TO SAY AFGHANS AND SOMALIS DID WHAT?”

Leo responded evenly: “Well it’s not Audacity. It is just a fact.”

The man escalated, demanding: “IS IT NOT A FACT THAT Y’ALL COLONIZED THE WORLD THROUGH RAPE, MURDER AND PILLAGING, RIGHT OR WRONG?”

The guy then repeated insults—“you’re a piece of s,” “you’re a liar”—and got inches from Leo’s face, spitting as he ranted about how he “came out here for violence,” not to talk.

Leo stayed composed, pointing out the obvious: “This doesn’t make your argument look good. That’s the left. That is the degenerate violent left. You give facts. You get data. And they get violent.”

The exchange ended with the soy leftist in the background yelling “go back to your country.” Leo’s deadpan reply: “I live here.” When asked how he got there: “Aeroplane.”

On GB News, Leo later reflected on the moment. He explained he could have countered with historical facts—Britain’s role in abolishing the slave trade, Royal Navy efforts against it—but prioritized de-escalation and safety amid the aggression. “I was more concerned about watching his hands… making sure that he wasn’t about to swing for me.”

‘The clip demonstrates that the left lunatics are exactly that.’@Benleo reacts to the moment when an anti-ICE protester aggressively confronted him after he presented some simple facts on migrants in Britain.

📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 pic.twitter.com/00wKP1SxdV
— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 31, 2026

He also addressed the police response, calling it “chilling” and “worrying.” Officers appeared uninterested after the threat, with one suggesting Leo’s questions were “provocative.” Leo noted: “It didn’t really seem like the police were bothered… presenting simple facts and asking what you’re doing here… is somehow provocative.”

‘It didn’t really seem like the police were bothered.’

GB News Presenter @Benleo says the police response at the New Jersey detention centre, as he was being confronted, was ‘chilling’ and a worrying sign that authorities are too sympathetic towards agitators. pic.twitter.com/ixexJlXw1O
— GB News (@GBNEWS) June 1, 2026

This isn’t isolated. Protests at Delaney Hall have turned violent for over a week, with reports of objects thrown, entrances blocked, and even an ICE agent bitten. Detainees allege poor conditions, but federal officials call the strike a political stunt amid efforts to deport serious offenders.

The confrontation exposes a deeper hypocrisy. Leftist activists rage against “colonialism” while ignoring how British institutions—rule of law, abolitionism, and innovation—built much of the modern world migrants flock to. They excuse crime waves from unchecked migration by pointing to the past, yet demand America absorb endless inflows without consequences.

Leo’s calm handling underscores a key truth: facts don’t care about feelings. When open-borders ideology meets reality—rising sexual offences, strained resources, cultural clashes—it produces not debate but threats. This is the same mindset behind attacks on figures like Charlie Kirk and repeated assassination attempts on President Trump.

America First policies, like robust ICE operations, exist precisely because ignoring these patterns endangers citizens. The left’s violent reaction proves they know the data is irrefutable—they just refuse to accept it.

The left’s mask slips when challenged. They’re not tolerant—they’re unhinged when their narrative cracks.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 13:05

French Commandos Board & Seize 4th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Since September

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:50:00 +0000

French Commandos Board & Seize 4th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Since September

France announced Monday another weekend interdiction of a Russian "shadow fleet" vessel in international waters near its coast. The French Navy boarded and detained a sanctioned oil tanker, President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday, in an operation which had the assistance from the UK Royal Navy and other allies.

This marks the fourth time since September that French commandoes have intercepted a boarded a sanctioned Russian vessel in regional waters.

via AFP/French military

The vessel, identified as the Tagor, originated from Murmansk, Russia, and was taken by French authorities while it traversed around 400 nautical miles (740 km) west of the tip of Brittany.

"It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than 4 years," Macron wrote in a post on X.

The apparent legal justification France's navy has relied on for such actions is the practice of "flag-hopping" - which involves a crew repeatedly changing displayed flags, along with often invalid registrations to thwart international tracking monitors.

At the time of boarding, via soldiers rappelling from helicopter, the ship was falsely flying a Cameroonian flag while reportedly en route to the coastal African city of Limbe, Cameroon.

Macron confirmed further on X: "This operation took place in the Atlantic Ocean, on the high seas, with the support of several partners, including the United Kingdom, in strict compliance with the law of the sea."

The Kremlin again condemned such 'unlawful' seizures in international waters, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, "We consider these acts as illegal, they border on international piracy … Russia is taking measures to ensure the safety of its cargo."

The vessel's captain is a Russian citizen, according to an embassy disclosure from Paris. According to more:

Guillaume Le Rasle, a spokesperson for the prefecture, said the tanker was under EU and US sanctions. “It is a vessel that was known and tracked,” he told AFP.

“The decision to divert it was taken Sunday evening. The objective of the diversion is to verify the validity of its flag,” Le Rasle said, adding that the tanker, which has frequently changed flags, was “almost empty” at the time of boarding.

La Marine nationale a arraisonné hier matin un nouveau pétrolier sous sanctions internationales en provenance de Russie : le Tagor. Notre détermination est constante et totale.

Cette intervention a été effectuée en Atlantique, en haute mer,… pic.twitter.com/zxEslYjbUE
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) June 1, 2026

The last several seized tankers were also flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:50

Anthropic Confidentially Files For IPO As Frontier AI Labs Race To Go Public

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:40:00 +0000

Anthropic Confidentially Files For IPO As Frontier AI Labs Race To Go Public

Four days after releasing its latest Claude Opus 4.8 model and raising $65 billion at a $900 billion valuation, Anthropic confidentially filed a draft Form S-1 with the SEC late Monday morning for a proposed IPO of its common stock.

"This gives us the option to go public after the SEC completes its review. The proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors," the maker of the Claude chatbot wrote in a press release.

The move puts Anthropic and OpenAI in a race to become the first major frontier AI lab to tap public markets, as investor appetite for AI infrastructure and all things SpaceX remains hot into early June.

It's "worth noting: filing first ≠ pricing first a confidential draft S-1 starts the SEC clock but sets no date," CNBC reporter Deirdre Bosa pointed out on X.

worth noting: filing first ≠ pricing first

a confidential draft S-1 starts the SEC clock but sets no date https://t.co/EY8X4Q4y8N
— Deirdre Bosa (@dee_bosa) June 1, 2026

The Polymarket bet "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?" shows that the confidential S-1 filing was a surprise to prediction markets.

Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing was a surprise to prediction markets https://t.co/08PxrLSOXG pic.twitter.com/TivykIBSZb
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 1, 2026

The surprise news comes four days after Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $900 billion valuation, nearly tripling its prior valuation and potentially surpassing OpenAI as the most valuable frontier AI lab.

That round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia, with additional participation from major investors including Baillie Gifford, Blackstone, Brookfield, Abu Dhabi’s MGX, and Singapore’s Temasek.

The funding comes shortly after Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8 and follows a prior $30 billion raise at a $350 billion valuation just three months earlier.

The Anthropic-OpenAI race to IPO comes as SpaceX is targeting an IPO for June 12, or next Friday, with shares expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.

Just last month.

OpenAI plans to file for IPO confidentially as soon as Friday: CNBC pic.twitter.com/mlSdYl05XG
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2026

With the flurry of mega IPOs on deck, Goldman has the answer to whether markets can absorb all the incoming supply (read report).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:40

US Moves To Further Restrict China's Access To Advanced AI Chips

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:30:00 +0000

US Moves To Further Restrict China's Access To Advanced AI Chips

Authored by Evgenia Filiaminova via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued new guidance to prevent Chinese companies from obtaining advanced U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) chips, such as Nvidia’s most sophisticated Blackwell processors, through overseas subsidiaries.

The May 31 guidance clarifies that export licenses are required for entities headquartered in China or Macau, regardless of where their affiliates are located.

The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) said that licensing requirements for advanced computing items destined for China- or Macau-headquartered entities were first established in November 2023 and remain in effect.

The agency said the requirement applies even when those entities are located outside China or Macau.

The clarification follows confusion over a May 2025 announcement by the BIS that it would not enforce certain parts of the Biden-era AI diffusion rule.

The rule was designed to restrict sales of advanced AI chips to strategic rivals while allowing broader access for U.S. allies.

The BIS said the policy change did not remove existing licensing requirements for exports involving Chinese or Macau-based customers, meaning companies must still obtain licenses unless an exemption applies.

The guidance also states that legitimate data center operators can continue to use, maintain, store, or replace advanced AI chips and equipment they already own.

The clarification does not require companies to shut down or remove existing systems.

Nvidia’s sales of advanced AI chips to China remain subject to U.S. export controls.

The Trump administration created a framework in 2025 allowing certain chips, including the H200, to be sold to approved Chinese customers under Commerce Department oversight.

Trump said in a Dec. 8, 2025, post on Truth Social that sales would be permitted subject to a 25 percent fee benefiting the U.S. government and limited to approved Chinese customers.

President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as they discuss investing in America, at the White House on April 30, 2025. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

An Nvidia spokesperson told The Epoch Times that the BIS guidance doesn’t impact its business.

It “simply reaffirms that NVIDIA’s current sales and vetting process is correct — licenses are required to ship controlled products to [China] headquartered companies,” the spokesperson said.

The Epoch Times reached out to AMD, another major supplier of AI chips, for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Analysts Warn of Potential Gap

Former U.S. State Department official Chris McGuire, who focuses on technology and national security issues, said in a May 31 post on X that the ambiguity surrounding BIS enforcement may have enabled overseas subsidiaries of Chinese firms to legally acquire advanced U.S. AI chips without export licenses.

“Chinese companies have been buying these chips, very likely at scale,” McGuire wrote in the social media post.

He argued that the lack of clarity about which export controls remained in effect created an opening that may have allowed subsidiaries of Chinese firms operating in countries such as Malaysia to purchase Nvidia’s Blackwell processors.

McGuire said the new BIS guidance appears to close that pathway by making clear that exports to China-headquartered companies outside China still require licenses.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang eats a bowl of noodles on a street in Beijing on May 15, 2026. Jiang Panpan via AP/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

He said that BIS has not clarified whether it will enforce due diligence requirements that apply to semiconductor foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) when assessing whether advanced AI chips could ultimately benefit Chinese companies.

“This is a massive loophole that still needs to be closed,” McGuire said.

The Epoch Times reached out to TSMC for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute specializing in U.S.–China relations, raised enforcement concerns.

“This looks like an apparently MASSIVE loophole at the Department of Commerce,” Sobolik said in a May 31 post on X.

Quoting McGuire’s analysis, he questioned the effectiveness of export controls if they are not consistently enforced.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:30

The Prince Of Darkness's Shadow Phone: Mandelson's Refusal Exposes Starmer's Transparency Farce

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:15:00 +0000

The Prince Of Darkness's Shadow Phone: Mandelson's Refusal Exposes Starmer's Transparency Farce

Peter Mandelson spent much of the past four decades at the center of British power: New Labour architect, Blair-era fixer, former cabinet minister, lobbyist, peer, and one of Westminster's most notorious survivors. Oh, and he was sliding Jeffrey Epstein actionable inside info.

His old nickname, the "Prince of Darkness," was never subtle. It captured both his political skill and the suspicion that Mandelson was most comfortable operating where influence, money, and private access overlap.

Today, Ministers released more than 1,500 pages - three bulging volumes of emails, handwritten notes, and more than 160 pages of WhatsApps - in what they billed as "unprecedented transparency" over Mandelson's disastrous stint as Britain's ambassador to Washington. And of course, guess what: Mandelson flat-out refused to hand over his personal phone, and that's pretty much that. Cabinet Office solicitors formally requested access on March 31; he declined to comply. The government admitted it had "no further recourse."

MP David Davis called this a "National Security Issue."

So the twice disgraced, Epstein-tainted, and forever scheming – was handed one of Britain's most sensitive diplomatic jobs despite flashing red lights. Now, even as Keir Starmer's government tries to publish its way out of scandal, the most important communications may remain exactly where Mandelson wants them: out of sight.

Vetting Catastrophe

In January of 2025, UK Security recommended denying Mandelson high-level clearance given concerns over his web of contacts in China, Russia, and Israel, a £1m loan linked to an Israeli startup, and his lobbying firm Global Counsel's sticky client list. Epstein ties added "general reputational risk." Foreign Office officials overruled the recommendation the next day with scant written mitigations. Starmer claims he was never properly briefed – calling it "unforgivable." Top FCDO mandarin Olly Robbins soon departed.

Yet, Starmer gave Mandelson the job anyway. A handwritten note to then-Foreign Secretary David Lammy oozed confidence: the government would "never regret" appointing him. MI6's former chief warned him about email hacking risks. He dangled a Peter Thiel meeting for Starmer. And embassy officials noted Donald Trump coveting a personalized red ministerial box.

The Epstein Nexus: Money, "Best Pal," and Police Heat

US DOJ releases earlier in 2026 supercharged the scandal: roughly $75,000 in payments from Epstein to Mandelson and his partner around 2003-04, continued contact after Epstein's 2008 conviction, including stays at his properties, and allegations of sharing market-sensitive UK information during the financial crisis. Mandelson called Epstein his "best pal" in old correspondence. He denies wrongdoing, but the revelations triggered his sacking, a Met Police misconduct probe, his February 2026 arrest, and searches. The full 9-page UKSV report remains withheld at police request.

BREAKING: Peter Mandelson has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office, the Metropolitan Police has saidhttps://t.co/CAU6JMk4vg

📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/Hgl7kPXEpa
— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 23, 2026

As the Guardian noted in February, emails forwarded to Epstein from the very top of the UK government include:

A confidential UK government document outlining £20bn in asset sales.
Mandelson claiming he was “trying hard” to change government policy on bankers’ bonuses.
An imminent bailout package for the euro the day before it was announced in 2010.
A suggestion that the JPMorgan boss “mildly threaten” the chancellor.
Epstein asked Mandelson to confirm a €500bn bailout – which the then business secretary said would be announced that evening. The following day, Mandelson also appeared to give Epstein an early tipoff about Gordon Brown’s resignation.

"he was a great FX trader" https://t.co/1U0adiK71z
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2026

The real fireworks are in the texts. Mandelson, ever the insider-outsider, talked extensive shit about the people he served:

Starmer's leadership: "advance / buckle / advance / buckle." No 10 was "beleaguered and bereft," not "leading from the front."
To Pat McFadden: Labour MPs were in a "mutinous state." Government priorities boiled down to "who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others." The "big picture is messy."
Pensions minister Torsten Bell echoed the chaos: everyone treating policy as "someone else's job."

Ministers curried favor. Mandelson dispensed unsolicited advice. The documents paint a dysfunctional WhatsApp government where spin, access, and personal networks trumped discipline.

The fallout has already claimed Morgan McSweeney, the chief of staff who backed the appointment, and communications director Tim Allan. May's local election drubbing saw more than 90 Labour MPs demand Starmer's head. Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham – running in the Makerfield by-election on June 18, 2026 – lurks as the obvious challenger if Starmer falters further.

Opposition parties smell weakness. The saga encapsulates elite impunity: a veteran operator with a rap sheet of past resignations handed a plum post despite every warning light flashing. Mandelson's refusal to surrender his personal phone only fuels the suspicion that the official record is not the full record.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:15

U.S. Oil Reserves To Dry Up Before August?

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:00:00 +0000

U.S. Oil Reserves To Dry Up Before August?

As oilprice.com asked earlier this week, why hasn’t oil hit $150 (yet)?

Tonight at 7 PM ET, ZeroHedge will host two former Goldman heavyweights to answer the question: is the recent oil price surge merely a temporary geopolitical shock, or are we entering a period of structurally higher energy prices?

Joining the discussion are former colleagues Jeff Currie, now chief strategy officer for energy pathways at the Carlyle Group, and Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten. The conversation will be hosted by Real Vision's Ash Bennington.

After five potential deals to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and none resulting in a full resumption of traffic, Currie’s betting that it won’t be different this time:

On @cnbcAsiaTV this morning, @CommodMkt said, "Sell The Tweet, Buy The Molcule." Currie detailed that Trump tweeted five times that the war was effectively over, but it has not happened.

The chart shows my guess of the five times. Currie is correct. If you bought the crude oil… https://t.co/XosPN03Nm4 pic.twitter.com/ipdgaNXYqE
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) May 25, 2026

Interesting highlight by Jim Bianco: “If you bought the crude oil collapse every time Trump said the war is over, you made $58, even though the price is only up $27 since the war started.“

Even if it is different this time, Currie has argued that global oil markets were already facing structural supply shortages before tensions with Iran escalated, with years of underinvestment leaving the system increasingly vulnerable to disruptions. In his view, the current conflict has simply accelerated a trend that was already underway, bringing forward a period of sustained higher oil prices that many investors have yet to fully appreciate.

Strait closure + baked in supply constraints, he says, could mean American storage tanks run dry as soon as July 4… just in time for the big 250 celebration.

"I've never seen anything like it before."

Oil storage tanks in the United States will run empty "somewhere in the July 4 period," Carlyle's Jeff Currie tells @flacqua https://t.co/vHoZcNL6ur pic.twitter.com/06RRdr6LqP
— Bloomberg (@business) May 6, 2026

Murti likewise remains bullish oil. Last October, he joined ZeroHedge for a debate on the price outlook and argued that crude prices were headed higher… a peaceful time when WTI crude sat at $60/barrell. The months that followed validated Murti so let’s see if that happens again.

Together, Currie and Murti will examine whether current oil prices fully reflect the underlying supply picture, how much of today's rally is attributable to Iran, what role U.S. foreign policy may play going forward, and whether investors should prepare for a prolonged period of elevated energy prices.

See you tonight at 7pm ET, here on the ZH homepage, X feed, or YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 12:00

Foreign Cargo Ship Struck By 'Massive Projectile' Just Off Iraq

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:45:00 +0000

Foreign Cargo Ship Struck By 'Massive Projectile' Just Off Iraq

A commercial cargo ship navigating the Arabian Gulf was struck by an unidentified projectile, triggering a "large explosion," according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The maritime strike took place approximately 65 nautical kilometers (40 miles) southeast of Umm Qasr, Iraq. At this time, the UKMTO noted that it is unaware of any environmental damage resulting from the blast.

Source: UKMTO

Initially Iraqi media reported the blast was due to "mechanical failure" - but soon after other regional media said it was the result of being hit by a "massive projectile".

"A cargo ship was hit by a massive projectile explosion off the coast of Umm Qasr in Iraq, according to Al Hadath, a Saudi-owned channel.

According to another maritime industry source:

Most of the attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf region since the war in Iran started have been in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, extending as far west as Bahrain and Qatar.

Only one other attack reported off Iraq was on the Greek-owned chemical/product tanker Zefyros and the US-owned Safesea Vishnu on 12 March which left one seafarer dead.

There have also been incidents off Kuwait with Suezmax tanker Sonangol Namibe anchored 30nm southeast of Mubarak Al Kabeer was hit with a large explosion on 5 March. Kuwait’s Shuwaikh and Mubarak Al Kabeer Port were struck by drones and missiles on 27 March.

Unverified video is already circulating of what's said to be a Panama-flagged container ship:

🇮🇶🇵🇦 A large Panama-flagged tanker has been hit by an explosion in Iraqi territorial waters, according to Al Arabiya. pic.twitter.com/9ENLHfN7By
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) June 1, 2026

Some areas in the vicinity have reportedly been subject to mine-laying by Iran's IRGC forces, making these waters already highly dangerous.

All of this has taken place as the US-Iran extended ceasefire is potentially breaking down Monday, following a weekend of limited tit-for-tat strikes between each warring side. Iran launched a pair of ballistic missile on a US base in Kuwait, and the US has struck radar and missile sites in Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:45

Them's Fightin' Words

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:30:00 +0000

Them's Fightin' Words

By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank Senior Market Strategist

Resigned

Brent crude front-month futures are inching higher this morning after ending May down almost 20%. The May selloff has been courtesy of Mr Market’s Pavlovian response to fresh peace rumours, though it still remains the case that a deal has not been done and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

US equity indices closed higher across the board on Friday, but Asian stocks are mixed in early trade today. The S&P500 has now had nine-consecutive positive weekly closes and is sitting at a fresh all-time-high, with futures pointed at further gains when markets open later today.
While crude futures are lower, spot prices for Malaysian Tapis crude are proving a little more sticky and are still trading around the levels seen through late May and early April. Singapore gasoil (diesel) spot prices are testing support at $135/bbl, but even at those short-term lows prices are way above the $90.41/bbl recorded on February 26th (the last close before the war started) or the January prices in the high $70s, before the market started to price in what two carrier groups in the Middle East might mean.

Gold prices rose by 0.68% last week. This was the first positive weekly close since May 8th, and another example of markets respecting the $4,500/oz support level. Gold is now trading at levels similar to those seen in late December and early January as a number of central banks liquidated holdings in a scramble for Dollar liquidity earlier in the Hormuz crisis.

Sovereign yields are moving higher this morning after falling for much of last week. US 2-year yields are up 2bps to 4.04% in early trade, Aussie 2s are up 4bps to 4.56%, but New Zealand 2s are curiously flat after a hawkish RBNZ last week and a national budget that showed fiscal tightening will be delayed beyond the 2026/27 financial year. Moves at the longer end are even more pronounced, with 10-year Treasury yields up 3bps to 4.47%.

The shift higher in crude and yields could be a sign of markets beginning to resign themselves to the idea that a deal will remain elusive in the short term. The creep from “any minute now” this time last week to “maybe, or maybe not” is underway. Regular readers will know that RaboResearch updated our baseline view on the Hormuz crisis last week to suggest that the Strait is likely to remain mostly closed through to September as the parties to negotiations find that their red lines over Iran’s nuclear program are (still) incompatible, and the Iranians realise that giving up their oil market leverage would be a foolish thing to do.

A bad sign arrived this morning with the news that Iranian President Pezeshkian had offered his resignation to Supreme Leader Khamenei. Pezeshkian has reportedly claimed that he is unable to run the government and carry out his responsibilities, because the civilian government has been sidelined by the hardliners in the IRGC – the guys with the guns. This is a new angle on the view that various factions in Iran are competing with each other, and that there are large disagreements on how negotiations with the US should be handled, or if they should be happening at all.

Donald Trump raised some eyebrows yesterday when he said that the Iranian military (the Artesh) is ‘moderate’ and had been left alone during American strikes. This places Pezeshkian, foreign minister Araghchi, and possibly parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf (newly re-appointed) alongside the Artesh in the ‘moderate’ camp willing to do a deal, while the IRGC resists agreement with the US and insists on Iran’s rights over Hormuz and the progress of its nuclear program. We think that it will take longer yet before the IRGC sees eye-to-eye with the moderates, and that a continued closure with risks of further strikes is more likely than an agreement that is amenable to all and satisfies Donald Trump’s need to sign something that looks better than Barack Obama’s JCPOA. Of course, it may be the case that the much-maligned JCPOA was maligned for a reason. To paraphrase Solon of Athens, the JCPOA might not have contained the best terms, but it might have contained the best terms all parties could be induced to accept.

While the Hormuz issue drags on, the Ukraine war also continues to percolate and threatens to spread into Europe. Ukraine is deepening cooperation with EU states over drone technology, which has been used to great effect against Russian energy targets in recent months. Meanwhile, a Russian drone reportedly struck an apartment building in NATO member country Romania late last week.

Former Russian President and close Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev took to X to warn “Citizens of EU countries, You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don't be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over...” To quote Yosemite Sam: “them’s fightin’ words”.

Citizens of EU countries, You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don't be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over. But you know who to ask why!
— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) May 29, 2026

Clearly the Kremlin is not happy that Europe is continuing to support Ukraine in a conflict that some analysts are now saying has turned in the latter’s favor.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:30

'Los Gatos Party Mom' Sentenced To 35 Years For Throwing Drunken Teen Parties

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:15:00 +0000

'Los Gatos Party Mom' Sentenced To 35 Years For Throwing Drunken Teen Parties

Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

A Los Gatos, California, woman was sentenced on May 28 to 35 years and 10 months in prison, the maximum allowed, for hosting parties for young teenagers where she brought alcohol and egged on sex acts.

Shannon O’Connor, 52, threw these parties for two years and discouraged teens, who were mostly 14 and 15 years old, from telling their parents or police about the parties or calling for help when one of the victims passed out in their own vomit.

“Many people call this defendant the ‘Los Gatos Party Mom.’ This isn’t some fun parent giving sips of wine spritzers to kids. She facilitated dangerous and drunken sex acts with these children. She risked their lives and damaged their psyches. She is not a party mom. Shannon O’Connor is a convicted felon. Shannon O’Connor is a registered sex offender,” Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen said.

O’Connor, also known as Shannon Burga, was convicted of 48 charges, including child abuse charges and two felony sex charges, in March.

Twenty young adults and 41 witnesses testified during the trial.

Thursday’s sentencing followed two days of testimony from the victims on O’Connor’s teen parties she hosted for two years, including one young woman who told the court she became suicidal from trauma induced by the parties.

At one party, O’Connor handed an underage teenager a condom and pushed him into a room with an intoxicated minor.

At a separate New Year’s Eve party with about five 14-year-olds, O’Connor watched and laughed as a drunk teen sexually battered a young girl in bed.

In another incident, O’Connor brought a drunk teen into a bedroom where an intoxicated 14-year-old girl was lying in bed, according to prosecutors.

After the girl was assaulted, she said to O’Connor, “Why did you leave me in there with him? Like you knew, like what he was going to do to me.”

In another case, O’Connor let a minor drive her SUV in the Los Gatos High School parking lot while two other teens held onto the back, and one was knocked unconscious after falling off.

In some cases, she would text teens or message them on Snapchat to leave their homes in the middle of the night and drink at her house, where she would provide alcohol.

“[O’Connor] endangered their safety, coordinated their sexual assaults, and she tried to get them not to tell,” Rosen said. “These brave kids came forward to tell the truth about what happened and to put a stop to it.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:15

Israel Warns There'll Be 'No Calm In Beirut' Until Hezbollah Ceases Attacks

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Israel Warns There'll Be 'No Calm In Beirut' Until Hezbollah Ceases Attacks

The US-Iran ceasefire is being tested on multiple fronts, with Tehran already having announced Monday the suspension of contact with Washington over the escalation of Israel's ground war in Lebanon, where the IDF keeps pushing further north of the Litani River. Israel looks poised to resume major airstrikes on Beirut, despite that technically it has a US-mediated ceasefire in place with the government of Lebanon. Israeli leaders have vowed to halt Hezbollah's persistent drone strikes on northern Israel, and to establish a security buffer zone.

Also on Monday Israel's defense minister threatened there will be "no calm in Beirut" if Hezbollah's rockets and drones continue raining down on Israeli communities and troop locations. This is a direct threat to resume airstrikes on the capital city. This has direct impact on the US-Iran ceasefire:

IRAN'S STATE TV SAYS PROBABILITY OF CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND U.S. ENDING IS HIGH IF ATTACKS ON LEBANON DO NOT STOP

via EuroNews

"The Dahiyeh in Beirut is no different from the communities in northern Israel – if there is no calm in the north, there will be no calm in Beirut," Israel Katz said in a statement released by his office,

Dahiyeh a Hezbollah stronghold near the country's main international airport, but is densely packed with civilians. Each wave of Israeli attacks has historically resulted in high civilian casualties.

"At the same time, the IDF continues to operate with fire and maneuver against Hezbollah terrorists and infrastructure in Lebanon ... in order to push threats away from IDF forces and from the residents of the State of Israel, and to turn the Litani area into a zone under IDF security control, free of weapons and terrorists," Katz added.

Some pundits have argued that the new Lebanon campaign is aimed at hindering Washington from making a 'bad deal' with Tehran (from Tel Aviv's perspective). Others have said Netanyahu appears "stuck" and doesn't have a clear mission in Lebanon:

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is “stuck” in terms of military strategy in Lebanon, according to Jad Melki, professor of media studies at the Lebanese American University.

Melki told Al Jazeera that most of Israel’s escalation has been targeting civilian centres in the city of Tyre, villages in south Lebanon, and historical sites like Beaufort Castle.

“Most of these have been built by Netanyahu as major strategic accomplishments, but those have been mostly exaggerated. Even the Beaufort Castle – unless we’re living in the 12th century, it’s not a strategic military location anymore,” he said.

“The problem is that Netanyahu is stuck,” Melki told Al Jazeera. “He cannot advance very quickly, as he will break the Israeli army, and he cannot sit still in the occupied territories of South Lebanon right now because the resistance is basically hunting his soldiers like sitting ducks, so he’s stuck and can only bomb hospitals and kill civilians and medical workers.”

Opinions have remained varied as to what Israel hopes to gain by escalating things in Lebanon at this fragile point where Israeli is at war on multiple fronts (and might the Houthis join next?):

Told @BeckyCNN:

- IRGC media claim suspension of Iran-US exchanges of messages, but we should be cautious pending official announcement.

- Israel may tell Trump that escalation in Lebanon will strengthen his hand vs Iran, but likely aim is to derail Iran-US diplomacy. pic.twitter.com/NWmTQsbIbg
— Mohammad Ali Shabani (@mashabani) June 1, 2026

Local Israeli media outlets have also in some cases questioned the strategic utility of the entire operation in establishing a 'buffer zone', pointing out that Hezbollah’s tactical drone fleet is widely believed to possess an operational range in excess of 30 km.

Hezbollah has been having success especially with fiber-optic cable drones which are not to susceptible to jamming, hacking, or other electronic warfare interception measures. All of these developments mean that the Washington-mediated ceasefire is effectively dead, and as Hezbollah's asymmetric warfare is likely to ramp up in response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 11:00

Inside The Major Bill Poised To Reshape The US Housing Market

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:30:00 +0000

Inside The Major Bill Poised To Reshape The US Housing Market

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

The United States may be on track to implement the first comprehensive housing legislation in decades.

For the past several years, housing affordability has been a significant subject across the country, with many young people struggling to achieve the dream of homeownership.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have tried to reverse the trend by advancing the 21st Century Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream (ROAD) to Housing Act of 2025.

Here is a look inside the sweeping housing package and the path to passage.

Inside the Act

Although the current administration has examined strategies to expand access to the housing market, the bipartisan legislative initiative aims to bolster supply for middle-class families.

The bill’s main provision is a limit on institutional investors’ purchases of single-family homes.

Both chambers tweaked the proposal.

The Senate approved language that requires major investors who build single‑family rental homes to sell those properties within seven years.

The House’s version still aims to rein in Wall Street’s footprint in the single‑family market, but its latest draft eases the restrictions.

Lawmakers added wider exemptions for institutional buyers of newly constructed rentals, homes needing substantial renovation, and several other categories.

Other measures aim to facilitate more construction, including incentives to build more homes, convert abandoned buildings into housing, and modernize existing homes.

In addition, Washington bolstered eligible income limits for the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, a federal block grant program that state and local governments use to build, maintain, and support affordable housing for low‑income households.

Officials created a Housing Supply Framework to enable best practices in state and local zoning and land use.

The legislative text also expands banks’ authority to make public welfare investments supporting affordable housing. The bill raises the cap for banks’ public welfare investments to 20 percent from 15 percent.

Lawmakers removed the permanent chassis requirement for manufactured homes. The long-standing federal rule required that manufactured homes be constructed on a permanent steel frame to qualify under the federal construction code.

It also includes the Modular Housing Production Act and other reforms to streamline the production of factory-built housing.

There was also some focus on the demand side of the equation. For example, the bill establishes incentives for mortgage lenders to originate small-dollar mortgages—typically less than $100,000—to address the financing gap for low-cost homes. Additionally, Congress updated rules on appraisal standards and fees for these small-dollar loans.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes reforms to Veterans Affairs housing policies. The major changes include expanding access to Veterans Affairs home loans, improving consumer protections for borrowers, and enhancing housing support for disabled and homeless veterans.

Congressional Path

Unlike other pieces of legislation, the housing affordability bill has moved quickly through Congress—something that President Donald Trump had requested.

Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, introduced legislation in December 2025. Two months later, it passed 390–9 in the lower chamber.

As it arrived in the upper chamber, senators made substitutions rather than take up the House bill. The amended legislation passed 89–10 and was sent back to the House, where it passed 396–13.

It will now be delivered to the Senate for final approval.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said the bipartisan housing bill will provide relief for families nationwide.

“We worked closely with the White House and our colleagues in both chambers on a bill that puts families first and addresses the housing crisis,” they said in a May 20 joint statement.

“There’s still work to be done and we are committed to continuing to work with the White House and our colleagues in the House on a housing bill that can pass the Senate and get to the president’s desk.”

What the Industry Says

The housing industry widely lauded Congress for moving ahead with the legislation.

Shortly after the House passed the bill, the National Association of Home Builders noted that it addresses several problems facing Americans today, mainly housing shortages and affordability challenges.

“The bottom line is that the housing crisis is a supply problem,” Bill Owens, the group’s chairman, said in a statement.

“Congress can help by improving access to capital, strengthening workforce pipelines, expanding the availability of buildable lots and reducing excessive regulatory costs and permitting delays.

“If we want to make housing more attainable, we must make it easier and less expensive to build.”

Emily Cadik, CEO of the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition, stated that increasing the banks’ public welfare investment cap to 20 percent will “unlock billions of dollars in new private investment.”

“Additional changes in the updated House legislation will further strengthen our ability to finance more affordable housing to address our nation’s immense need,” Cadik said in a statement.

The House passing the Senate’s amended version would both enhance housing supply and expand access to affordable mortgage credit, said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“[The legislation] will help advance meaningful housing affordability solutions for our nation’s homeowners and renters,” he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:30

SpaceX IPO Update: New Filing Reveals Friends & Family Share Allocation, Anthropic AI Deal, And Water Risk

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:15:00 +0000

SpaceX IPO Update: New Filing Reveals Friends & Family Share Allocation, Anthropic AI Deal, And Water Risk

SpaceX has provided fresh details in an amended S-1 filing regarding its upcoming initial public offering, including a directed share program for employees and insiders, a major AI computing agreement with Anthropic, and new risk factors.

The company will reserve up to 5% of shares in its IPO for certain employees and friends and family of its executive officers. The company disclosed that participants on its "friends and family" list will not be subject to a lock-up restriction, allowing them to sell shares immediately upon listing.

While directed share programs are common in IPOs, the lack of lock-up for this group stands out. More than 60% of shares outstanding immediately prior to the offering remain subject to an extended lock-up period, including shares held by founder and CEO Elon Musk.

SpaceX stands as the preeminent launch provider globally, delivering unmatched reliability, cost-efficiency, and launch cadence. As of mid-2026, the company maintains a 100% success rate across dozens of Falcon launches this year and conducts the vast majority of U.S. orbital missions - carrying both commercial and government payloads, including NASA crew and cargo to the ISS as well as national security satellites. SpaceX's Falcon family commands over 80% of the U.S. launch market and the bulk of global mass-to-orbit capability thanks to proven reusability.

Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin, meanwhile, suffered a significant setback last week, when its New Glenn rocket exploded during a static fire test at Launch Complex 36 in Cape Canaveral. The incident destroyed the vehicle and caused extensive damage to the launch pad - including collapsed lightning towers and ground infrastructure - forcing months of repairs and further delaying the company's entry into heavy-lift competition.

Here's our video of the explosion at Launch Complex 36. It happened about 9 pm ET (0100 UTC) as Blue Origin was beginning a static fire test of its New Glenn rocket.

Watch live views: https://t.co/tm2wZQmAVD pic.twitter.com/PmbgQC6Qmq
— Spaceflight Now (@SpaceflightNow) May 29, 2026

Blue Origin now faces additional hurdles in catching up to SpaceX, particularly as it seeks NASA Artemis contracts and commercial missions for Amazon's Project Kuiper.

Major AI Computing Deal with Anthropic

The amended filing also discloses that SpaceX has an agreement to provide Anthropic PBC with artificial intelligence computing capacity consisting of approximately 325,000 Nvidia chips. The deal is valued at $1.25 billion per month and runs through May 2029. After an initial three-month period, either party can terminate with 90 days notice.

SpaceX noted in its risk factors that some compute service customers may rely on external capital to meet their payment obligations.

New Risk Factor: Water Scarcity?

SpaceX added water scarcity as a formal risk factor. Drought conditions, increased competition for water sources, and potential regulatory restrictions could raise costs or limit the company's ability to cool its data center infrastructure. This reflects growing scrutiny over the high water and power demands of AI data centers.

Bloomberg last week reported that SpaceX is now targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion for the IPO vs. $2T - which Elon Musk said was "false" in response after we surfaced the claim. Either way, the IPO is more or less a major referendum on the AI-fueled bull market.

The company is targeting pricing on June 11 and a trading debut on June 12 under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:15

"Firing On All Cylinders, But..." US Manufacturing Surveys Send Mixed Signals In May

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:08:04 +0000

"Firing On All Cylinders, But..." US Manufacturing Surveys Send Mixed Signals In May

With US hard data taking a beating (relative to expectations) last week (red line below), analysts remain hopeful that US Manufacturing will hold up (durable goods orders were solid) with this morning's Manufacturing PMIs set to signal stability.

The final May S&P Global US Manufacturing rose to 55.1 (down from the 55.3 flash print) but the strongest since April 2022
ISM's Manufacturing PMI survey also signaled improvement, up from 52.7 to 54.0 (better than 53.0 expected).

"At first glance, the manufacturing sector seems to be firing on all cylinders but lift the hood and the picture is not so clear," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The headline PMI has hit a four-year high, with strong factory production growth for a second successive month in response to a further marked upturn in order books, but since the outbreak of war in the Middle East we have seen production and demand buoyed by stock building as companies worry over rising prices and supply difficulties.

This stockpiling was again widely evident in May and makes it hard to take an accurate reading on the underlying health of the manufacturing economy, as growth will cool once this stock build has run its course," Williamson noted.

"The incidence of supply chain delays is the highest since August 2022, with the buying of safety stocks not only adding to the supply squeeze from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but also pushing prices higher for a wide variety of inputs.

Williamson ends on a more ominous - stagflationary - notes: warning that the resulting steep jump in producer costs sends a worrying signal that broader economy inflation has further to rise in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 10:08

"Working Better": Saylor Teases BTC Buy After Strategy Sells For First Time Since 2022

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:50:00 +0000

"Working Better": Saylor Teases BTC Buy After Strategy Sells For First Time Since 2022

Bitcoin is extending its recent weakness overnight (hurt by US-Iran tensions escalating again), trading back below its 100DMA after Strategy (MSTR) sold 32 bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 at an average net price of $77,135 a coin, totaling $2.5 million (disclosed in an 8-K filing on Monday).

Proceeds from the bitcoin sales are expected to be used to fund distributions on preferred stock, the firm said.

This is the first time Strategy has sold bitcoin since December 2022, when the company offloaded 704 BTC, according to onchain analyst Ai Yi.

However, the firm reportedly bought 810 BTC just two days after the sale at a lower price in a tax loss trade.

Strategy now holds a total of 843,706 BTC following the reduction - worth around $61 billion - bought at an average price of $75,699 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $63.9 billion, including fees and expenses.

In addition, for the week, Strategy raised $128.3 million through its at-the-market (ATM) common stock program and allocated a small portion of the proceeds to increase its U.S. dollar cash reserve from $871 million to $900 million.

Anticipated?

The Block.co reports that Strategy's bitcoin sale was anticipated.

Its executives previously said during its first-quarter 2026 earnings call that it may sell some of its holdings to fund dividends for STRC, Strategy's perpetual preferred stock designed to maintain a $100 par value and offer high yields to investors.

Saylor explained then that the sale would eventually help Strategy buy more bitcoin than it would sell to cover STRC's dividends.

He also noted that the firm's current position requires bitcoin to appreciate at 2.3% annually for its existing holdings to cover STRC dividend obligations indefinitely, without selling any common stock.

Today's sale announcement comes shortly after onchain data from Arkham Intelligence showed that Strategy moved roughly 411.6 BTC from its custody account on Coinbase Prime to a cold wallet address on the platform on May 28.

This prompted the odds of Strategy selling bitcoin before the end of 2026 to surge to 84%.

Strategy also noted it has purchased 2.6 times the amount of bitcoin mined in 2026 so far, describing MSTR as a "BitVac."

"Working Better"

But, as CoinTelegraph.com reports, before the 8-K filing was released (but after the actual sales), Strategy chairman Michael Saylor on Sunday signaled the Bitcoin treasury company would be announcing fresh purchases of the cryptocurrency in the coming days.

The social media post comes just days ahead of a proxy vote that depends in large part on retailer shareholders to enable semi-monthly dividend payouts on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

“Working Better” was Saylor's tweet late Sunday morning to accompany a bubble chart tracking Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) purchases over the past nearly six years.

“Working Better” tweet. Source: Michael Saylor

That chart, from Iceland-registered StrategyTracker.com, has been consistently posted by Saylor in the days ahead of news of a purchase by the biggest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.

To be sure, any purchases to be announced will likely reflect the company bought at or below the average cost of previous BTC purchases.

Retail investors pressed to vote on STRC dividend change

Strategy is proposing to pay semi-monthly dividends on STRC, instead of monthly. The company claims that if approved and adopted, it will lead to reduced reinvestment lag, enhanced liquidity, market efficiency and increased price stability.

Just days ahead of the June 7 proxy vote deadline, Saylor and Strategy are pressing retail shareholders to return their proxy votes. On an internal company channel, Strategy’s investor relations team posted a message to all employees concerning the company’s 2026 annual meeting and provided links to the proposals under consideration by shareholders.

Part of message to Strategy employees from internal website. Source: Company filing on Edgar

“The amendment for STRC to pay semi-monthly dividends, needs 50% of all 85M shares outstanding as of April 17, 2026, to pass, which means every single vote counts,” read a May 28 post on Strategy’s verified feed on X.com.

CEO Phong Le posted a video a day earlier thanking STRC shareholders for their trust.

“I wanted to personally walk you through the proposed amendment and what it means for you,” he said as an introduction to the minute-and-a-half video.

Retail investors have shown limited interest in casting proxy votes. A November research note from The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance revealed data that showed retail investors have consistently voted only about 29% of their owned shares during the past five proxy voting seasons. Institutional holders have voted about 77%.

A Cyclical Bottom?

Bloomberg's Andre de Silva writes that while a steep record daily capital drain in US Bitcoin ETFs exposes immediate fatigue, past precedent suggests that such severe capitulation frequently cleanses short-term positioning and signals a cyclical bottom for the digital asset.

AI infrastructure and semiconductor equities have attracted the most attention, but because Bitcoin typically retains its status as a high-beta proxy for broader risk appetite during macro expansions, this temporary diversion of capital suggests that a classic catch-up rally remains on the table.

The initial euphoria surrounding US Bitcoin ETFs has cooled, giving way to an unprecedented streak of redemptions. Investors pulled $2.96 billion from the funds over 10 consecutive trading sessions to close out May, according ETF providers. That culminated in $2.4 billion in total net outflows for the month. This sharp reversal stands in contrast to the preceding two months of healthy institutional demand, which saw combined inflows of over $3.3 billion across March and April. The late-May selling pressure spared no one, with BlackRock’s usually resilient IBIT hit by a near-record single-day redemption following a massive off-exchange block trade.

This capital flight highlights a stark divergence recently between digital and traditional risk assets.

While global stock benchmarks like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Asia’s top indices such as the Kospi scale new heights, Bitcoin has decoupled from the broader market rally.

Even the prospects of supportive regulation have failed to arrest the slide. This includes the Senate Banking Committee recently advancing the landmark Clarity Act to establish a formal crypto market framework, an initiative that Polymarket prices with a 55% chance of being officially signed into law this year. Instead, capital is aggressively migrating toward memory chip and semiconductor companies and, as indicted by David Savage, including Asia, leaving Bitcoin looking sluggish by comparison.

Beneath the surface, this purge of the ETF channel acts as a reliable contrarian indicator.

Historically, when US Bitcoin ETF flows hit these types of extreme negative troughs, they frequently coincided with local market bottoms.

Similar washouts during early 2025 preceded sharp, multi-month recoveries once institutional selling hit exhaustion.

While crypto sentiment has dropped into ‘Fear’ territory according to the Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which is a multi-factor market sentiment tracker, this cleansing of overleveraged or short-term positions might be exactly what the digital asset needs to reset and build a sustainable floor.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:50

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP, ISMs And Fed Speakers

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:41:12 +0000

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP, ISMs And Fed Speakers

The key event for markets outside of Iran (which is once again front and center following news that Iran is halting all exchange of messages with the US in protest of Israeli crimes in Lebanon) will be Friday’s US May employment report. Economists forecast a notable moderation in payroll growth compared with the relatively strong pace seen earlier in the spring. Headline nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by around consensus 89k, down from 115k in April, while private payrolls are forecast at roughly 89k after 123k previously. This slowing partly reflects expectations that hiring in sectors that have been particularly strong in recent months – notably transportation and warehousing, as well as retail trade – begins to cool. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.3% (consensus also 4.3%).

Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, the rest of the US labor market data flow should reinforce the Federal Reserve’s growing confidence that labor market conditions are stabilizing. Tomorrow, the April JOLTS report will shed light on the gross hiring and separation flows that underpinned last month’s solid net job gains. On Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls report is forecast to show a gain of around 118k, up from 109k previously, consistent with the strength seen in ADP’s high-frequency indicators. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims are expected to remain relatively low, although there is scope for a temporary uptick to around 220k, partly reflecting seasonal distortions associated with the Memorial Day holiday period.

Beyond the labor market, the focus will also be on whether recent resilience in US economic activity is sustained. Today, the May manufacturing ISM survey is forecast to rise to around 53.0 from 52.7 in April, supported by encouraging signals from regional Fed surveys. Later in the week, Thursday’s services ISM is expected to edge higher to roughly 53.9 from 53.6. That said, the backdrop for consumer spending remains mixed. Elevated petrol prices and tariff-related increases in core goods inflation are emerging headwinds, and economists therefore expect tomorrow’s unit motor vehicle sales to remain broadly flat at around 16.0 million annualized.

Alongside the data, Federal Reserve communication will be closely watched. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish its Beige Book, offering anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across districts. Fed speak is scattered through the week but it's mostly from officials who have spoken recently so it shouldn't break new ground.

Outside the US, Europe will see several important inflation releases. Today, the ECB publishes its consumer expectations survey, providing an update on household inflation views. Tomorrow, the Eurozone releases its flash CPI estimate for May, following national releases over recent days and today. Further inflation data are due on Thursday from Switzerland and Sweden, adding to the regional picture ahead of upcoming central bank meetings.

Central bank speakers are also in focus outside of the Fed. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Thursday, while Bank of England Governor Bailey appears multiple times through the week, including tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is due to speak on Wednesday.

In China we've already had most of the PMIs over the weekend and this morning (see more above) but the private sector services PMI is out on Wednesday. In Japan, Friday brings labour cash earnings data. Our Chief Japan economist expects wage growth to slow to around 2.5% year on year, from 2.8% previously. Elsewhere in the region, Australia releases its Q1 GDP figures on Wednesday.

Finally, the corporate earnings calendar is also busy, with several high-profile releases. In the technology sector, results are due from Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike during the week, while consumer-focused names reporting include Inditex, Dollar General and Lululemon Athletica. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 1

Data: US May ISM index, April construction spending, China RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Japan Q1 Ministry of Finance’s financial statements statistics of corporations, Italy May manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone April M3, unemployment rate, Canada May manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Q1 GDP
Central banks: ECB’s consumer expectations survey, ECB’s Schnabel speaks, BoC’s Rogers speaks
Earnings: Meituan, HPE

Tuesday June 2

Data: US April JOLTS report, May total vehicle sales, UK April net consumer credit, M4, Japan May monetary base, France April budget balance, Eurozone May CPI
Central banks: Fed's Kashkari and Hammack speak, BoE's Bailey and Greene speak
Earnings: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General

Wednesday June 3

Data: US May ADP report, ISM services, April factory orders, China RatingDog services PMI, UK May official reserves changes, Italy May services PMI, Eurozone April PPI, Canada Q1 labor productivity, May services PMI, Australia Q1 GDP
Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, Fed’s Barr and Logan speak, ECB's Elderson and Cipollone speak, BoJ's Ueda speaks
Earnings: Broadcom, Inditex, Crowdstrike, Medtronic
Other: OECD economic outlook

Thursday June 4

Data: US initial jobless claims, UK May new car registrations, construction PMI, Eurozone April retail sales, Switzerland May CPI, Sweden May CPI
Central banks: Fed's Daly speaks, ECB's Lagarde speaks, BoE's Bailey speaks
Earnings: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

Friday June 5

Data: US May jobs report, April consumer credit, Japan April labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, France April current account balance, trade balance, industrial production, Italy April retail sales, Canada May labour force survey
Central banks: BoE's Bailey and Dhingra speak, BoE’s DMP survey

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Barr and Presidents Kashkari, Hammack, Logan, Barkin, and Daly.

Monday, June 1

09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May final (consensus 55.3, last 55.3)
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, May (GS 53.5, consensus 53.0, last 52.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 53.5 in May, reflecting convergence to the level implied by regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 0.2pt to 54.9 in May.
10:00 AM Construction spending, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%)

Tuesday, June 2

01:50 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a panel discussion at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference. On May 29, President Kashkari—who dissented from the implicit easing bias in the April FOMC’s post-meeting statement along with Presidents Hammack and Logan—said that “it’s premature to conclude we need to be raising rates right away,” adding that “we need to keep watching the data and how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds before I want to make any adjustments.”
08:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on monetary policy in a moderated Q&A at the City Club of Cleveland. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On May 7, President Hammack said that “the statement we put out [at the April FOMC meeting] is that interest rates were on hold, but we have the signal in there that it’s more likely that the next move will be a move down,” adding that she thought “that was a little bit misleading given my view of where the economy is.” She also noted that in her baseline outlook, “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.”
10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, April (GS 7,000k, consensus 6,857k, last 6,866k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged up to 7.0mn in April based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
10:00 AM BLS releases 2025Q4 QCEW data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the 2025Q4 release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). In the April release for personal income, the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that downward revisions to compensation through the end of 2025 reflected the incorporation of wage and salary data from the 2025Q4 QCEW, suggesting that the employment numbers from the QCEW are likely to again suggest downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls in the next annual benchmarking.
05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, May (GS 16.3mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 15.9mn)

Wednesday, June 3

08:15 AM ADP employment change, May (GS +125k, consensus +118k, last +109k)
09:00 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a moderated discussion at the Community Developers Bankers Association 2026 Peer Forum in Washington, DC. On May 5, Governor Barr said that “the longer [the war in Iran] goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we are seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy, and then we have to worry more.” He also noted that “we are in a situation right now where we really need to wait and see to understand what direction [the conflict] is going.”
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, May final (consensus 50.9, last 50.9)
10:00 AM ISM services index, May (GS 54.0, consensus 53.9, last 53.6): We estimate that the ISM services index edged up to 54.0 in May. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased slightly in May but remained below the latest ISM services reading (+0.5pt to 52.8).
10:00 AM Factory orders, April (GS +5.3%, consensus +4.5%, last +1.5%)
02:00 PM Fed releases Beige book, June meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the April FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with two Districts reporting little change and two reporting slight to modest declines. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
04:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated conversation at the University of Texas at El Paso. Moderated Q&A is expected. On May 1, in a statement explaining her dissent from the implicit easing bias in the April FOMC’s post-meeting statement, President Logan said that she was “increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the way to the FOMC’s 2% target.” She also noted that “the conflict in the Middle East raises the prospect of prolonged or repeated supply disruptions that could create further inflationary pressures.”

Thursday, June 4

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 30 (GS 220k, consensus 211k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 23 (consensus 1,778k, last 1,786k)
08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 final (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%): Unit labor costs, Q1 final (GS +1.7%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.3%): We estimate that nonfarm productivity growth will be revised down by 0.2pp to +0.6% quarterly annualized in the second release for 2026Q1. Since 2019Q4, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.1%, a much stronger pace than the 1.5% average pace in the pre-pandemic cycle. We estimate that unit labor costs—compensation divided by output—will be revised down by 0.6pp to +1.7%.
08:30 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak in a fireside chat at the Belmont Country Club in Ashburn, Virginia. Moderated Q&A with audience is expected. On May 21, President Barkin noted that “with inflation above our 2% target for five years now, it’s worth asking whether the cumulative impact of so many waves risks loosening the anchor [for inflation expectations].” He added that he sees policy as “well positioned” to manage risks to both the labor market and inflation.
01:10 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak in a conversation at the Bloomberg Technology Summit in San Francisco. Moderated Q&A is expected. On May 29, President Daly said that “there is no urgency to make a [policy] adjustment,” as “policy is in a good place.” She added that “we need to know when the war ends and how oil prices behave afterwards” before considering further policy changes.

Friday, June 5

08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, May (GS +60k, consensus +89k, last +115k); Private payroll employment, May (GS +65k, consensus +89k, last +123k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, May (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 60k in May. On the positive side, layoffs remained low between survey weeks. On the negative side, the big data indicators of job growth we track slowed and we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in May. On one hand, continuing claims declined further between survey weeks. But on the other hand, the May unemployment rate appears to suffer from modest positive residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has increased in each of the last three Mays by an average of 0.12pp) and the bar for rounding up to 4.4% is not high from an unrounded 4.34% in April. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month in May, reflecting positive calendar effects.
12:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on supervision and regulation at the Kogod School of Business in Washington, DC. Speech text and moderated Q&A with audience are expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:41

Moderna Snags $50 Million Ebola Vax Contract

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:30:00 +0000

Moderna Snags $50 Million Ebola Vax Contract

Moderna is receiving up to $50 million to accelerate the development of an Ebola vaccine, as the virus continues to spread in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

The funding is coming from global health organization CEPI, which told Reuters that it was possible to bring the vaccines to trial phase within a couple of months.

CEPI said it would also invest up to $8.6 million for a shot developed by the University of Oxford and manufactured by the Serum Institute of India, and an initial $3.2 million for a vaccine developed by the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. -Reuters

"Every day counts in the race against this deadly disease," said Richard Hatchett, head of CEPI, adding that the vaccines are on "a not infinitely distant horizon."

That said, Hatchett also cautioned that vaccine development can be unpredictable, plus there's a 'challenging security situation' in eastern Congo that might make trials complex - which, includes (most recently) locals setting fire to an Ebola treatment center after they were stopped from retrieving the body of a dead man.

The crowd set fire to two tents fitted with eight beds run by a medical charity called The Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), said Deputy Senior Commissioner Jean-Claude Mukendi, head of the public security department in Ituri Province.

Mukendi said the youths had not understood the protocols for burying a suspected Ebola victim.

“His family, friends, and other young people wanted to take his body home for a funeral even though the instructions from the authorities during this Ebola virus outbreak are clear,” Mukendi said. “All bodies must be buried according to the regulations.”

So far there have been 282 confirmed cases and 42 deaths in the recent outbreak, and around 1,100 suspected cases, according to the African CDC and the World Health Organization.

Beyond the DRC, nine cases have been confirmed in Uganda, including one death.

Two weeks to stop the uncontrollable anal bleeding and 50% chance of death?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:30

IBM Soars On Resurfaced Trump Clip, Barclays Buy Rating As MoMo Rally Accelerates

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:15:00 +0000

IBM Soars On Resurfaced Trump Clip, Barclays Buy Rating As MoMo Rally Accelerates

IBM shares jumped as much as 15% in premarket trading after Bloomberg described a recirculated video of President Trump stating that the stock is "going to go up a lot more."

The clip, reposted by Polymarket Money on Saturday evening, appears to have fueled another leg higher in what has already been an eye-popping, multi-week rally.

In the clip, dated December 10, Trump boasted that IBM CEO Arvind Krishna had "taken the stock from a rather low price to a very nice price."

"I won't say high because I'm sure you're going to say it's going to go up a lot more," Trump added.

Trump says $IBM is “going to go up a lot more.”pic.twitter.com/KgzV0qy19j
— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) May 31, 2026

IBM logged the largest monthly gain in May since October 2002.

Another overnight catalyst was Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow, who initiated coverage of IBM with an Overweight rating and a $350 price target.

Lenschow said that IBM has built a more stable growth engine around its defensive software portfolio, adding that the bull case goes well beyond quantum computing hype.

Earlier today, UBS analyst Robert Ruple provided clients with a few reasons for the recent bounce in software stocks:

Persistent AI enthusiasm has driven one of the strongest two months of performance on record for the S&P with Tech/S5INFT up 14.3% m/m, shrugging off the US/Iran stalemate and stubborn inflation. While semiconductor stocks remain the clear leaders with SOX up 81% in 2026, a key question emerging late week is what's driving the rebound in software, which was up 9.9% w/w, which appears to be extending into Monday morning, tied to comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushing back on the "Saaspocalyse" concerns (Bloomberg).

Software flows on the desk were slightly better to buy late last week, albeit skewed towards those in the consumption bucket on limited supply but based on what the UBS prime brokerage desk has seen, most of the price action has leaned in favor of covering.

Clearly the solid beat/raise from Snowflake catalyzed the sector to an extent, but aside from a handful of disappointments, most of the results were largely inline to better than feared. That said, many of the recent software laggards have quietly outperformed of late, with presumably some level of rotational forces at play. Also, a couple of people Friday claimed there was heavy retail buying in software because social media caught on to President Trump's purchase of ServiceNow stock, which is bit odd because this was disclosed back on May 15. Additionally, part of the move in IBM on Monday is being attributed to a video of Trump praising the company's CEO (Bloomberg) and discussing the stock back in December that was recirculated via social media.

In a recent note, Citi analyst Fatima Boolani said that IBM's software and hardware remain deeply embedded "across the most critical points of the world's largest, most complex IT infrastructures."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 09:15

Nvidia CEO Declares AI PC Reinvention A "New Beginning" On Par With Smartphone Shift

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:55:00 +0000

Nvidia CEO Declares AI PC Reinvention A "New Beginning" On Par With Smartphone Shift

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered the keynote address on Monday at GTC Taipei 2026, outlining the next evolution of AI compute.

Huang's presentation included updates on the Vera Rubin platform, a new lineup of Windows PCs developed with Microsoft for AI workflows, the launch of an enterprise agent toolkit, and next-generation AI infrastructure systems to accelerate data-center and agentic AI adoption.

A team of Goldman analysts, led by James Schneider, attended GTC Taipei 2026 and shared the top takeaways with clients.

Schneider had three key investment takeaways:

First, Nvidia (with Microsoft) is pursuing its traditional PC TAM more aggressively, which we believe could help drive some momentum for Windows on ARM (which has been extremely slow to date) given a concerted push with software partners.

Second, Nvidia continues to push its advantage in datacenter-level performance and cost leadership as a key differentiator relative to competitors - which we think should allow it to maintain competitive dominance at all but the largest hyperscalers.

Third, Nvidia is aggressively investing to drive the adoption of agentic AI across developers and ecosystem partners, and its Vera Rubin revenue ramp remains on track.

Here's more color on those takeaways:

Vera Rubin update: Nvidia announced that it is now ramping full production of its Vera Rubin platform, with multiple rack-scale systems (NVL72 GPUs, Vera CPUs, Groq 3 LPUs, BlueField storage, Spectrum-X networking) contributing to AI factory designs. The company highlighted that Vera GPUs are purpose-built for agentic AI use cases, with up to 1.8X the performance of X86 systems and 10X agent throughput vs. Blackwell. We expect a materially steeper revenue ramp for Rubin (beginning in 3Q) relative to Blackwell given meaningful manufacturing efficiencies and greater total capacity. In addition, the company highlighted its DSX AI Factory reference platform, which helps customers optimize their AI datacenters to bring operations up faster, while optimzing power consumption and system uptime.

New lineup of Windows PCs with Microsoft targeting AI workflows: Nvidia, in collaboration with Microsoft and Mediatek, launched a new Windows-based PC platform targeting AI workflows. The RTX Spark product combines a Blackwell RTX GPU with a 20-core Grace GPU (co-designed with Mediatek) using NVLink to deliver a high-performance PC experience optimized for AI applications - which we expect to be targeted at the premium segment of the market. OEM partners will launch laptop, desktop, and workstations systems beginning this fall, with launch partners including ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft, MSI, Acer and Gigabyte.

Launch of Enterprise Agent Toolkit. Nvidia announced a series of new software releases targeting agentic AI use cases in the enterprise, including NemoClaw, Nemotron 3 Ultra, OpenShell, and CUDA-X Agent Skills.

Physical AI announcements: Nvidia launched new versions of its open Cosmos (v3) frontier model targeting multi-modal reasoning, and Alpamayo (v2) which is targeted as a reference platform for self-driving cars. The company also announced its first open reference design for humanoid robots, based on its Isaac Gr00t and Jetson Thor hardware platform.

"The PC is being reinvented," Huang said. "For forty years, you launched apps. Click. Type. With RTX Spark and Microsoft Windows, you ask — and the PC does the work. RTX Spark brings everything NVIDIA has built — CUDA, RTX, our AI platform — into a single superchip. Local agents. Frontier models. Creative workflows. RTX games. All on a laptop. This is the new PC. The personal AI computer."

Jensen Huang says the AI PC reinvention is as big as the smartphone shift by calling it “a new line” and “a new beginning.”$NVDA and $MSFT unveiled RTX Spark which will be the world’s most powerful deskside AI supercomputer built to run next-gen AI agent workloads locally. https://t.co/aUTBmJ3a5G pic.twitter.com/oz21vosT5S
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) June 1, 2026

Nvidia shares rose 2.5% in premarket trading in New York after Huang's comments outlined that the company was entering the PC market with a new chip.

Arm ADRs soared 12% as traders viewed Nvidia's PC push as supportive of the Arm ecosystem. However, the announcement pressured incumbent processor stocks, with Intel sliding 6%, Qualcomm down 9.5%, and AMD falling 3.5%.

Schneider is "Buy" rated on NVDA with a 12-month price target of $285. This is based on a 30X P/E multiple applied to his team's normalized EPS estimate of $9.50.

Meanwhile, overnight, Intel announced a new AI chip, code-named Crescent Island, expected to hit the consumer market by the end of the year, according to the Financial Times.

"We decided to start rebuilding our muscles in AI . . . [but] we are not particularly aiming for [the training market] based on past experience," said Kevork Kechichian, who leads Intel's data center group.

The AI chip race is accelerating, with today's biggest news being Nvidia's move to reinvent the PC market with a new AI chip.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 08:55

Aww... Look At The Cute Dancing-Robot Police-State Surveillance-Dog...

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:35:00 +0000

Aww... Look At The Cute Dancing-Robot Police-State Surveillance-Dog...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Boston Dynamics’ Spot robot dogs are being deployed at designated World Cup venues in the US to perform perimeter security inspections, prompting concerns over the advance of surveillance tech.

The company has stated that the machines “will be used to assist security personnel with investigating things like suspicious packages or other potentially hazardous materials.”

These four-legged fiends are set to roam, and even dance (oh how cute) around AT&T Stadium in Dallas and other FIFA sites ahead of the 2026 tournament, sending live feeds back to human teams with their 360-degree cameras, thermal sensors, acoustic pickups, and AI anomaly detection.

These are the new Boston Dynamics Spot robots deployed in Dallas for the 2026 FIFA World Cup

They are being used for security at World Cup venues in the Dallas area

Their jobs include:

- Perimeter security inspections
- Assisting with suspicious packages or hazardous materials… pic.twitter.com/rLsl2wnFuA
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 30, 2026

“The robots do not have facial recognition capabilities,” a Boston Dynamics spokesperson told WFAA, insisting they spot unauthorized people in restricted zones without utilising facial scans for now, after a viral TikTok video made the claim.

Hyundai, the South Korean owner of Boston Dynamics and major FIFA sponsor, added the bots “will support on-site security operations, helping contribute to a safer tournament environment.”

But peel back the puppy-like head tilts and choreographed spins and you see the real rollout: tireless mechanical sentries normalizing constant surveillance on American soil. They look fun today at the soccer spectacle expecting half a million visitors. Tomorrow the same platforms patrol streets, malls, and events nationwide, always watching, always recording.

This isn’t some isolated gimmick. It’s fast becoming commonplace in cities such as Atlanta, where robot security dogs prowl apartment complexes and parking lots issuing verbal commands to citizens.

Recent videos show residents greeting the units politely and complying instantly – only for the bot to still summon real police anyway. The voice responding through the speaker carries a clear foreign accent. Speculation is rife that the live operators controlling these machines and watching every feed sit thousands of miles away in India.

Another viral clip captured locals staring down the mechanical intruder with a classic line that perfectly summed it up.

These aren’t fully autonomous terminators yet. Real people – often overseas – sit at consoles staring at your every move through the robot’s eyes and ears, deciding when to hit the siren or dial American cops on you.

Your privacy, your neighborhood, your compliance all funneled through foreign call-center eyes. Data stored, analyzed, potentially shared who-knows-where. Ordinary citizens get lectured by a machine whose controller doesn’t even live in the country.

The same quadruped platform that dances cutely for World Cup selfies or patrols Atlanta lots is already being militarized abroad. Just weeks earlier, footage emerged of China unleashing machine-gun-toting robot wolves engineered with a shared “collective brain” that lets them hunt and coordinate in simulated street battles.

These pack-hunting death machines storm positions, clear entire urban blocks in minutes, and spare human troops the risk while turning dissent or resistance into target practice. Non-military versions are even for sale to civilians.

While American cities outsource low-level enforcement to remote foreign operators who record and report on citizens, China turns the same tech into lethal swarms ready for real conflict.

The cute dancing dog at the stadium today carries the same sensors and mobility as tomorrow’s enforcer. Denials about “no facial recognition” ring hollow when software upgrades and off-the-shelf AI can bolt it on. The hardware is already here. The willingness to expand its role grows every time the public shrugs and scrolls past another viral clip.

While this tech supposedly keeps big events “safe,” everyday Americans already endure open-border chaos, rising crime in blue cities, and government agencies that treat citizens as the threat. Surely the real priority should be securing the actual border, deporting criminals, and backing law enforcement that answers to voters – not handing patrol duties to remote-operated spy dogs whose operators answer to foreign paychecks.

Once these machines become commonplace, backed by endless camera grids and AI flags, the slide into a permission-based society accelerates. Move along when the robot says so. Stay out of the restricted zone it defines. Don’t question the system streaming your life overseas.

The dancing bots are a warning, not a toy. Freedom means rejecting the slow normalization of this dystopian show on American streets. Push back now, demand human accountability and constitutional limits, or watch the cute dancing routine quickly morph into a demand for compliance.

Yeah, I saw that episode of Black Mirror...

...it didn't go so well. pic.twitter.com/DYymNOLaBE
— Deaconbluezzz (@Deaconbluezzz66) April 12, 2026

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Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 08:35

Futures Rise Despite Oil Bounce, As Nvidia Keeps AI Euphoria Going

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:25:15 +0000

Futures Rise Despite Oil Bounce, As Nvidia Keeps AI Euphoria Going

Futures are positive and at session highs even as the a lack of a US / Iran deal pushes oil prices, bond yields, and volatility higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% to a new all time high of 7620; Nasdaq futures rise 0.2%: the Computex AI Conference kicked off; biggest news is NVDA to enter PC space with a new chip challenging AMD / INTC, helping send its stock up 2.3%. Microsoft shares gain 3.1% after Jensen Huang dismissed concerns over disruption from artificial intelligence. Geopolitics was in focus: in addition to a lack of a deal, there were renewed "kinetic skirmishes" that made headlines. Aside from Tech, Energy is the only sector seeing a uniform bid with elements of both Cyclicals and Defensives weaker highlighting concentration risk. WTI is above $91 as the Energy complex is rallying with Ags catching a bid and Metals mixed as Copper / Silver lead. USD is higher after 2 weeks of losses with bond yields 2 - 3bps. In equities, tech is leading with strength in Mag7 and Semis. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Mfg with ISM-Srvcs on Weds and NFP on Friday.

In premarket trading, Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.3% after the leader in AI chips said it was entering the PC market with a new chip. The news is supporting chip-design company Arm, whose ADRs (ARM) are up 13%, while weighing on chipmakers in the CPU space, with Intel (INTC) down 6%, Qualcomm (QCOM) sinking 9.7%, and AMD (AMD) down 4.3%. Other Mag 7 names are mixed (Meta Platforms +0.3%, Amazon -0.5%, Apple -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%, Tesla -1.5%).

Software stocks rally, with Microsoft (MSFT) up 4.1%, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rebuffed concerns that the industry is at risk of being disrupted by more advanced AI tools.
IBM jumps 14% after a video of President Donald Trump praising the company’s CEO and discussing the stock at a December event recirculated on social media over the weekend.
Oculis sinks 32% after the biopharmaceutical firm said studies of its OCS-01 eye drops in patients with diabetic macular edema missed primary endpoint.
Redwire is down 7.1% after Jefferies downgraded the defense company to hold from buy.
Strategy is down 2.7% as Mizuho Securities cut its the price target on the Bitcoin treasury company to $265 from $320 on lower crypto prices.
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is up 23% after Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire the company for a total enterprise value of approximately $8.5b.

In other corporate news, Revolution Medicines’s experimental pancreatic cancer drug daraxonrasib delayed painful symptoms for months, in addition to nearly doubling survival.

Traders are waiting for signs that a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains on track after Israel stepped up its offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend. Tehran struck a Kuwaiti air base, while the US conducted “self-defense strikes” on Iranian radar and command-and-control sites. Lack of resolution pushed Brent 2.8% higher to nearly $94 a barrel, snapping a three-day run of losses.

The two sides also exchanged messages seeking amendments to a draft agreement. President Donald Trump urged calm, saying the situation will work out well. Iran said Israel’s attacks on Lebanon were preventing a deal.

“Markets need an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, to provide the next leg higher in equities and lower in rates,” Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar told clients. “We still believe that we should get a leg higher when a deal is finally agreed upon.”

Overnight, Nvidia kept the AI trade alive as a stream of headlines emerge from Taiwan’s Computex event. Nvidia has entered the PC market with a new chip, RTX Spark Superchip, aimed at loosening the stranglehold of Intel technology in that arena. Nvidia also said Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are among the first big users of its upcoming microprocessor Vera. The news is supporting chip-design company Arm, whose ADRs (ARM) are up 13%, while weighing on chipmakers in the CPU space, with Intel (INTC) down 6%, Qualcomm (QCOM) sinking 9.7%, and AMD (AMD) down 4.3%. Other Mag 7 names are mixed (Meta Platforms +0.3%, Amazon -0.5%, Apple -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%, Tesla -1.5%).

“The rally in tech stocks is coherent when one looks at the earnings and profits of both the supplier of AI infrastructure and the hyperscalers,” said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Global Asset Management. “There are those who claim there’s a bubble, but I simply see rising profits and a super cycle.”

Meanwhile, the benchmark SOX Index is set for its best quarter ever, soaring 69% in the past two months. Hedge funds have been leaning into market momentum — the cohort was a net buyer of US stocks for a second consecutive week, with purchases reaching their fastest pace in six months, according to Goldman Sachs’ Prime desk.

It is a quiet week on the earnings front, and traders’ focus will shift to a busy macro slate. Today’s manufacturing PMI from S&P Global and ISM might reflect a rush to stockpile goods ahead of potential price increases sparked by the Iran war, while April figures for construction spending could offer a read on the pace of AI data center buildout. Jobs week is coming up, with a slate of indicators on the labor market culminating on Friday with the government’s official report on employment for May, for which Bloomberg survey estimates payrolls to rise by 89,000.

“We believe net hiring troughed early last fall and has been improving gradually ever since. May’s job report should provide more evidence that hiring has picked up, while the unemployment rate is steady. Job openings also likely accelerated, despite persistent fears that AI is reducing demand for workers.”

“The US macro backdrop of a stabilizing labor market, sticky underlying inflation, and resilient economic activity back a more restrictive Fed,” wrote Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Money markets continue to price around a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by December.

Discretionary goods, transportation and financial stocks are cyclical pockets that stand to benefit from accelerating earnings momentum as well as the recent drop in oil prices, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson. Meanwhile, cross-asset strategists at Goldman Sachs flag global technology stocks as the focus of an unusually fast and narrow re-risking in financial markets.

Elsewhere, former Fed Chair Powell said the US central bank would lose credibility if any president were free to dismiss Fed officials over policy disagreements. At a security forum in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sought to convince US allies that staying quiet on Taiwan is the best way to project American strength.

European stocks started June lower as investors favored AI-linked shares, leaving the region’s less tech-heavy benchmark at a disadvantage. Oil and gas stocks outperformed as commodity prices edged higher amid continued uncertainty over a peace deal between the US and Iran. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

EasyJet shares jumped as much as 13% to the highest in three months after Castlelake said late Friday that it is considering an offer for the UK budget carrier
Applied Nutrition gains as much as 15%, climbing to a record high, after the nutritional product company lifted its revenue expectations for the full year, and announced a strategic US addition, alongside a new North American flavor collaboration agreement with Mondelez
Vusion shares rose as much as 10%, to the highest since Feb. 18, as BNP Paribas hikes its recommendation to outperform from neutral on order intake
Polar Capital rose as much as 6.6% to its highest level since September 2021 after Deutsche Bank set a new Street-high price target for the UK asset manager
Momentum Group is the best-performing stock on the Johannesburg bourse, gaining as much as 4.9%, the most in almost three months, after the insurer projected normalized headline earnings per share to have increased by 20% over the nine-month period ending March 2026

Earlier, Asian stocks climbed, extending a record-beating rally for a second session, as enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade outweighed caution over mixed signals surrounding the US-Iran peace deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4% before paring some of the advance but still headed for a fresh record, with South Korea and Taiwan’s tech-heavy markets leading gains in the region. Benchmarks in Japan, Hong Kong and mainland China also advanced, while Australia declined. Markets are shut in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand for public holidays.

Investors are buying into AI-related names after positive developments that are expected to support the region’s technology industry. Expectations of closer collaboration with Nvidia ahead of CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to South Korea spurred a jump in several chip-makers and physical AI firms. Software stocks, a sector that has suffered from AI disruption fears, also got a boost after Workday unveiled a partnership to integrate AI agents into HR and finance operations.

“The stock market has largely ignored lack of clarity on truce extension and kept its focus on the AI rally,” said Fabien Yip, market analyst at IG International. “We expect sentiments to be mildly positive this week ahead of Broadcom’s earnings and the US job report later this week.”

In FX, the greenback is mixed versus peers. Most Group-of-10 currencies traded in tight ranges with markets in Singapore and New Zealand shut for a local holiday

In rates, treasury futures hold small losses in early US session amid more pronounced bear-flattening in bunds. Brent crude higher by 3.4% and back towards $95/bbl. Higher energy prices have boosted yields, with the US 10yr borrowing cost up 3bps to 4.47%. US front-end and belly yields are about 3bp cheaper on the day, leading losses and flattening 5s30s spread by around 1.5bp. German front-end yields are up about 6bp, flattening German 2s10s spread by 2bp. German front-end bonds are lagging US and UK counterparts with ECB’s Schnabel cautioning over the risk of unanchored inflation expectations. IG dollar issuance slate includes several offerings already. Dealers expect a weekly total of around $35 billion and a monthly haul in the $130 billion-$135 billion range, versus $109 billion in June 2025. No Treasury coupon supply expected this week, with 3-year new issue and 10- and 30-year reopenings due next week

In commodities, Oil prices are higher in absence of a peace agreement between US and Iran. WTI crude oil futures are up 3.6% near session highs as Washington and Tehran trade messages seeking changes to a draft agreement to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold and silver are diverging, with the latter shedding 0.9% and former gaining 0.7%.

US Economic data slate includes May final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), May ISM manufacturing and April construction spending (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank for Monday.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

Donald Trump said talks with Iran over an interim peace deal will “work out well.” But oil bounced from a six-week low as clashes continued near the Strait of Hormuz. The US said it struck Iranian air defense facilities in response to the shooting down of an American drone. BBG
Nvidia will debut a new chip for laptop and desktop computers to challenge Intel and AMD, whose shares were down premarket. BBG
Anthropic cut its list of unauthorized secondary-market platforms to four from eight following pushback from investors. BBG
Jay Powell has said the US Federal Reserve is in the throes of a “stress test” that threatens the strength and stability of the world’s largest economy, claiming Donald Trump’s attempts to fire central bankers undermine the rule of law. FT
Tech giant SoftBank has become Japan’s biggest company by market value, as AI demand powers the country’s stocks to an all-time high and helps Masayoshi Son’s group overtake Toyota. The car manufacturer and industrial giant has been Japan’s biggest company by market capitalization for more than 20 years, and its ousting from the top slot reflects rising global investor interest in AI and semiconductor companies. FT
China’s factory activity slowed in May, with the official manufacturing PMI edging down to 50, as expected, from 50.3 in April. BBG
China issued sweeping new rules on Monday tightening control of overseas deals that involve Chinese investors, technology, data and national security, a month after Beijing ordered Meta to unwind its acquisition of AI startup Manus. RTRS
Chinese mainland investors turned net sellers of Hong Kong stocks for the first time in nearly three years in May. BBG
Eurozone inflation expectations weren’t as bad as feared, with 1-year unchanged at 4% while 3-year ticked down from 3% to 2.9% and 5-year held steady at 2.4%. ECB
US IPO activity has recently accelerated following four consecutive years of muted issuance. 24 US companies have come to market so far in Q2 2026, bringing the YTD total to 40. This represents more than double the number of IPOs at this point in 2025 and the largest total through May since the 95 IPOs launched in the first five months of 2021. Nonetheless, despite the recent pickup in activity, the number of deals so far this year has lagged the average total of 50 IPOs through May since 1995: Goldman

Iran War

Iran Commentary

Iran may propose changes to the US peace draft memorandum of understanding, according to Tasnim. This follows a report that President Trump proposed further changes to the existing text, while a source stated that text exchanges continue and that Iran may submit its own edits.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told state media that talks and message exchanges with the US are ongoing, and that the talks cannot be judged until a clear result is reached.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the negotiation team's visit to Qatar was positive.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that they have a legal obligation to prevent aggressors from using their territory and facilities to attack another country.
Iran’s Presidential Office denied reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian submitted his resignation to the Supreme Leader, and stated that the stories were spread by some foreign media.
Iranian Supreme Leader’s military adviser Mohsen Rezaei said Iran has no intention of yielding or compromising with the US and will not place itself in a weak position, while he also stated that US President Trump is betraying diplomacy for the third time by continuing a naval blockade on Iran and making excessive demands.
IRGC said following aggression of US Army on a communication tower on Sirik Island, located in the Homozgan province an hour ago, fighters of the IRGC Aerospace Force targeted airbase where aggression originated and predicted targets were destroyed.
Iran's top negotiator said "The naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon by the genocidal Zionist regime are clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire".
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said at this moment they do not believe that the US has good intentions towards Iran.
Iran's FM Baghaei said "No negotiations have taken place on the details of the nuclear issue at this stage". One point being discussed is the allocation of funds for reconstruction. We are considering options for responding to the escalation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Iran's Baghaei said a ceasefire in Lebanon is an integral part of any agreement and end to the war; lack of trust and constant change in US and Israeli positions in Lebanon are causing a delay on the diplomatic process. The continuation of maritime piracy and attacks on Iranian shipping is an example of a violation of the ceasefire. The diplomatic apparatus is closely following developments and we will take every measure to defend Iran's sovereignty. The exchange of messages is still ongoing.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Iran's goal is not to hold ships in the Strait, but to declare a procedure that is not contrary to international law; these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down. Stopping ships behind the Strait of Hormuz incurs storage and delay costs, and war insurance has increased by up to 500%. Accompanying Iranian forces costs less than war insurance and eliminates the risk of stoppage, inspection, and seizure. Iran's goal is not to hold the ships, but to declare a procedure that is not contrary to international law; these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down.
"Three consecutive explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas", Iran International reported.
US President Trump reportedly sent tougher terms to Iran regarding the peace framework, according to officials cited by The New York Times.

US Commentary

US President Trump posted "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us". Full post "Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively “chirping,” at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does! President DJT".
US President Trump posted "Fake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon". Full post "ScraperFake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon. It then goes on, in very strong and lengthy detail, to discuss various other aspects of Nuclear. In fact, that’s what most of the agreement is about. CNN, and so many others in the Fake News Media, is a Low Ratings disaster. Even with new ownership, it is unlikely to ever get better!!! President DJT".
US Secretary of State Rubio spoke in the last 48 hours with Lebanon's President and Israel's PM to try and promote a new ceasefire initiative, according to a senior US official cited by Axios's Ravid. said:. US senior official said that the new initiative was proposed as part of the negotiations taking place between Israel and Lebanon, as another round of talks between diplomats from both sides is scheduled to take place this week in Washington. In order to advance the talks, US proposed that as a first step, Hezbollah stop all attacks on Israel, and in return, Israel will refrain from escalation in Beirut.
US Central Command confirmed military forces conducted strikes against Iranian radar at command and control sites located in Goruk and Qeshm Island over the weekend.
Kuwait Army said air defences are intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks.

Lebanon

Israeli PM Netanyahu said they will attack targets in the southern suburbs of Beirut, in response to Hezbollah violating the ceasefire agreement.
"Walla News, citing a source: Washington is open to Israel's request to expand its military operation in Lebanon", Al Araby reported.
Israeli jets hit Al-Qatrani, Al-Mawahani and Bin Jabal in Lebanon, according to IRIB.
Sirens sounded in Tiberias and surrounding areas after rockets were launched from Lebanon.
Lebanon is intensifying its efforts to solidify the ceasefire and is conducting international contacts, particularly with the Americans, in light of Israeli threats, Al-Araby reported citing sources. Talks with the US are still scheduled for tomorrow.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the new month predominantly in the green with the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI extending on fresh record highs amid tech-related strength and following a lack of any major geopolitical developments over the weekend, with a US-Iran peace agreement remaining elusive, while participants also got to digest mixed Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 traded rangebound with demand constrained as the strength in tech and miners is offset by underperformance in defensives, telecoms and real estate. Nikkei 225 rose to a fresh record high and briefly surpassed the 67,000 level for the first time amid tech strength, which saw SoftBank overtake Toyota as the largest Japanese company by market cap. KOSPI outperformed with index heavyweight Samsung Electronics rallying around 10% amid the tech momentum, while an industry report noted that the Co. surpassed Micron to become the world’s leading supplier of automotive memory chips last year. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied, with the mainland indecisive following mixed Chinese PMI data in which official Manufacturing PMI missed forecasts, but Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a surprise return to expansion territory, while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts. In addition, trade frictions linger as China vowed to resolutely retaliate if the EU proceeds with new restrictive trade measures, while the State Council announced that new rules tightening the oversight of outbound investments in selected technologies will take effect on July 1st.

Top Asian News

Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May) 54.5 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 55.1).
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 51.3).

European bourses are broadly lower this morning, as markets digest another flare-up between the US and Iran, with Israel also seemingly upping its presence in southern Lebanon once again. From an index perspective, the AEX (-0.4%) mildly underperforms whilst the DAX 40 (+0.2%) holds afloat. European sectors are mixed. Energy unsurprisingly tops the pile, given the gains in underlying oil prices; Tech and Basic Resources complete the top three. To the downside reside Media and then Healthcare; the former has been weighed by losses in UMG (-2%), after it rejected Pershing Square’s unsolicited offer.

Top European News

Hungarian PM Magyar said will amend constitution to oust Hungarian President.
Morningstar DBRS confirms Spain at A (high), Stable Trend.
S&P affirms Hungary at BBB-; Outlook negative.
Former UK Health Secretary and potential leadership contender Wes Streeting flagged the idea of lowering employers’ national insurance and favours new North Sea oil drilling.
S&P confirmed France’s sovereign rating at A+; Outlook Stable, according to French Finance Minister Lescure.
SoftBank pledged to spend at least USD 52bln on building a network of data centres in France as it seeks to deliver as much as 3.1 gigawatts of computing capacity in the country by 2031, according to WSJ.

Mixed performance across G10s with most currencies lower against the Greenback (ex. GBP/NOK given oil/yield moves.)
GBP is the mild outperformer after reporting over the weekend suggested unofficial UK PM candidate Burnham was eyeing right-leaning Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as potential Chancellor. The Sun reported Mahmood “is meant to have done a deal with Burnham”. Mahmood has previously defended efforts to reduce the amount spent on welfare, and is known for a right-leaning stance on immigration. Though these updates are speculative at the moment, Sterling has attracted buyers and is one of the only G10 currencies positive against the Buck. GBP/USD +0.1%, EUR/GBP -0.1%.
USD is unchanged/modestly firmer and either side of the 99.00 mark. No US-specific newsflow over the weekend, just Geopolitics as explained below. Set to be a busy week of Labour market data, today sees the release of S&P/ISM manufacturing PMIs, Tuesday sees JOLTs Job Openings, ADP weekly payrolls on Wednesday, Challenger layoffs on Thursday, and then NFP on Friday. ING writes, “Should the jobs data stay supportive and price pressures through the ISM surveys remain intense, markets can probably shift towards pricing one full 25bp Fed rate hike this year. That compares to +17bp of tightening priced currently.”
NOK is being helped by energy benchmarks with Brent Aug’26 +3% after NYT reported Trump sent tougher terms to Iran regarding the peace framework, Tasnim outlined that Iran could propose changes to the MoU, while both sides exchanged fire over the weekend. USD/NOK -0.2%, NOK/SEK +0.5%.
Aussie lacks direction after mixed Chinese PMI data overnight, while Kiwi lacks demand with domestic participants absent amid a market holiday. AUD/NZD +0.4%, AUD/USD U/C, NZD/USD -0.5%.

Fixed Income

A softer start for fixed income as the energy space climbed in APAC hours, given a handful of detrimental updates on the US-Iran situation. Since, the press conference from Iran's spokesperson has provided further support to energy, with Araghchi noting that no negotiations have taken place on the details of the nuclear issue.
USTs and Bunds lower overnight, in proximity to the troughs from Friday. Gilts opened lower by around 35 ticks and then slipped a handful more to a 88.31 trough, pressured but comfortably clear of levels below 88.00 at 87.94 and 87.86 from last week.
USTs and Bunds are similarly at lows, down by five and 50 ticks respectively. Specifics for the US and Europe are a little light aside from a few Central Bank speakers, with the focus firmly on any geopolitical update(s) or a significant change to the equity space. On the latter, the focus has been firmly on South Korea given the stellar gains in the market YTD and the ongoing marked strength seen today, i.e. Samsung Electronics +10%.
No move to the final PMIs for the EZ and UK thus far. Ahead, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI before the latest Atlanta Fed.

Commodities

The geopolitical environment is clouded by uncertainty, with a recent flare-up between the US and Iran once again leading to firmer trade in crude benchmarks. In brief, the US Central Command said that military forces conducted strikes against Iranian radar at command and control sites located in Goruk and Qeshm Island – this was then met with IRGC retaliation. Outside of Iran, Kuwait said air defences were intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks.
As for the journey to negotiations, the US and Iran are both reportedly altering the draft MoU. President Trump reportedly sent “tougher terms” regarding the framework, NYT reported. In response, Tasnim suggested that Iran may propose its own changes.
As for the European day, there have been a few appearances from Iranian officials; Deputy FM for Legal Affairs Gharibabadi noted that Iran’s goal is to accompany ships through the Strait, and “these arrangements are not temporary and Iran will not back down”. Elsewhere, Iran's FM Baghaei said, "no negotiations have taken place on the details of the nuclear issue at this stage". Comments which helped the upward bias in oil benchmarks.
WTI and Brent are stronger this morning by c. 4.1% and 3.1% respectively. Prices gapped up at the open, and gradually moved higher as the session progressed; as it stands, the complex resides towards highs. WTI trades within a USD 88.45-91.26/bbl range, whilst Brent holds at the upper end of a USD 90.05-92.11/bbl range.
Spot gold is lower by around a per cent and currently resides within a USD 4,490-4,546/oz range, and towards the bottom end of Friday’s range. Ultimately, action is dictated by the inflationary implications of heightened geopolitical risk. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly firmer, following on from a positive APAC session overnight. 3M LME copper posts gains of c. 1.4% and currently trades towards the day’s peaks, within a USD 13,635.4-13,814/t range.
Russia to ban jet fuel exports until the end of November, Ifx reported.
Citigroup raises its near-term copper price forecast to USD 14,500 per metric tonne and set a 6-12 month target of USD 15,000 per metric tonne.

Trade/Tariffs

UK Business Secretary Kyle set to travel to India this week for talks about the recent trade deal as well as steel tariff measures announced by the government in March, SKY news reported.
China's State Council said new rules regarding China tightening oversight of outbound investments in selected technologies take effect July 1st.
China vowed to resolutely retaliate if the EU proceeds with new restrictive trade measures, following a European Commission discussion on China policy last Friday.

Central Banks

Fed's Powell (voter) said Fed will lose credibility if the President removes officials over policy, while he remain on the board according to Barron's.
Fed’s Waller (voter) said the spread of stablecoins globally could broaden the reach of US monetary policy.
BoJ's Koeda said oil is a negative supply shock for Japan.
EU ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (Apr) 1yr ahead 4% (prev. 4%); 3yr ahead 2.9% (prev. 3%).
ECB's Villeroy said Bank of France estimates for French Economic growth in 2026 will be revised down, in view of bad Q1 surprise. Growth estimates should remain positive in most scenarios.
ECB Schnabel said supply shock is seen as large and highly persistent, adds that oil prices are expected to stay elevated for some time.
BoE’s Mann said the long run of good luck central bankers experienced in containing inflation has run out with a more shock-prone era setting in.
ECB’s Pereira said the central bank shouldn’t hesitate to act and thinks that it is better to act sooner rather than later, so that they don’t have much greater second-order effects later on.
ECB’s Vujcic said Croatia’s inflation is likely to ease in May after accelerating to the fastest annual pace in the euro area of 5.8% in April.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8167 vs exp. 6.7645 (prev. 6.8176).

Geopolitics

Russia to ban jet fuel exports until the end of November, Ifx reported.
Ukraine's Air Force said Russian guided bombs strike the Donetsk region and drones are heading from Kharkiv to the Poltava region.
Ukraine Air Force said enemy drones were detected over northwestern Kharkiv region.

US Event Calendar

9:45 am: May F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.3, prior 55.3
10:00 am: May ISM Manufacturing, est. 53, prior 52.7
10:00 am: May ISM Prices Paid, est. 85, prior 84.6
10:00 am: Apr Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As it’s unbelievably the start of June already, Henry will shortly release our regular performance review for May. It was another eventful month, as hopes for a US-Iran deal meant Brent crude (-19.3%) saw its biggest decline since March 2020 when the pandemic lockdowns began. So stagflation fears eased dramatically, and the S&P 500 hit fresh records. Otherwise, chip stocks were the big outperformer as excitement around AI returned, with the Philly semiconductor index up another +22.2% in total return terms in May. Moreover, South Korea’s KOSPI was up +28.5%, taking its YTD gains to an astonishing +102.4% in just five months. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Whether June continues the positivity of May will surely depend on whether the hopes of a US-Iran deal turn into reality. It's been 93 days now since the strikes began and 54 since the truce that later became a ceasefire started. We've never felt closer to a deal but potentially never felt closer to it all falling apart with isolated strikes becoming more frequent including some again over the weekend. It's hard to imagine remaining in limbo for much longer given that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into mid-summer it will at some point likely lead to a non-linear tipping point of economic stress. For now, it seems Mr Trump is still deciding on whether the current negotiations between the two nations satisfy his demands. He has been surprisingly quiet over the weekend which indicates things perhaps coming close to a head. Meanwhile Israel and Hezbollah are trading attacks again which complicates matters even if fresh ceasefire proposals are being worked on. We could have said this a week ago, but it really feels like the next few hours and days will be critical.

Brent is up +2.4% this morning but it hasn't impacted equities much with S&P (+0.25%) and Nasdaq (+0.52%) futures higher again and Asia again strong, mostly on the AI trade. Indeed the KOSPI (+4.45%) is again the standout performer. Elsewhere the Nikkei (+0.85%) and Hang Seng (+0.88%) are the other main gainers with mainland Chinese markets slightly lower, perhaps on fairly flat PMI data this morning and over the weekend. 10yr UST are back up +3bps at 4.465% given the higher oil this morning.

Over the weekend China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0 (in-line with consensus, 50.3 last month) and 50.1 respectively (consensus 49.5, 49.4 last month). The private sector manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, four tenths of a percent higher than last month. You can see our economists' review of the PMIs here. He believes you are seeing the impact of higher oil prices in the activity data.

Looking ahead to the coming week, the key event for markets outside of Iran will be Friday’s US May employment report. Our economists forecast a notable moderation in payroll growth compared with the relatively strong pace seen earlier in the spring. Headline nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by around 50k (consensus 89k), down from 115k in April, while private payrolls are forecast at roughly 60k (consensus 89k) after 123k previously. This slowing partly reflects their expectation that hiring in sectors that have been particularly strong in recent months – notably transportation and warehousing, as well as retail trade – begins to cool. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.3% (consensus also 4.3%).

Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, the rest of the US labour market data flow should reinforce the Federal Reserve’s growing confidence that labour market conditions are stabilising. Tomorrow, the April JOLTS report will shed light on the gross hiring and separation flows that underpinned last month’s solid net job gains. On Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls report is forecast by our economists to show a gain of around 130k, up from 109k previously, consistent with the strength seen in ADP’s high-frequency indicators. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims are expected to remain relatively low, although our economists see scope for a temporary uptick to around 220k, partly reflecting seasonal distortions associated with the Memorial Day holiday period.

Beyond the labour market, the focus will also be on whether recent resilience in US economic activity is sustained. Today, the May manufacturing ISM survey is forecast by our economists to rise to around 54.0 from 52.7 in April, supported by encouraging signals from regional Fed surveys. Later in the week, Thursday’s services ISM is expected to edge higher to roughly 53.9 from 53.6. That said, the backdrop for consumer spending remains mixed. Elevated petrol prices and tariff-related increases in core goods inflation are emerging headwinds, and our economists therefore expect tomorrow’s unit motor vehicle sales to remain broadly flat at around 16.0 million annualised.
Alongside the data, Federal Reserve communication will be closely watched. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish its Beige Book, offering anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across districts. Fed speak is scattered through the week but it's mostly from officials who have spoken recently so it shouldn't break new ground.

Recapping last week now and markets put in a strong performance overall, driven by mounting hopes for some kind of peace deal between the US and Iran. Several headlines pointed in that direction, with multiple outlets reporting that the two sides would agree a 60-day ceasefire extension. So that led to a sharp decline in oil prices, with Brent crude down -11.10% last week (-1.77% Friday) to $92.05/bbl. And investors moved to price out the chance of a protracted conflict as well, with the 6-month Brent future also down -4.64% to $84.18/bbl.

That decline in oil prices meant fears about inflation continued to ease last week. For instance, the Euro 1yr inflation swap fell -38.1bps to 3.24%, and the US 1yr inflation swap fell -10.2bps to 3.01%. So investors also dialled back their expectations for rate hikes too, with a Fed hike by December down to 57% by the close on Friday, having been at 95% the previous week. Similarly at the ECB, the number of hikes priced by December fell from 65bps to 53bps by Friday’s close. And in turn, sovereign bonds rallied around the world, with the 10yr Treasury yield falling -12.2bps last week (-1.1bps Friday) to 4.44%, whilst the 10yr bund yield fell -10.0bps (-2.4bps Friday) to 2.94%.

With optimism rising on the geopolitical situation, equities also put in a strong performance around the world. For instance, the S&P 500 rose +1.43% (+0.22% Friday), marking a 9th consecutive weekly gain for the index, which is the first time that’s happened since 2023. Tech stocks did particularly well, with the NASDAQ up +2.39% (+0.20% Friday). And the rally extended globally, with Japan’s Nikkei up +4.72% (+2.53% Friday), whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 saw a modest +0.14% gain last week (+0.14% Friday). Finally in credit, spreads tightened a bit last week, with Euro IG tightening -1bps, and Euro HY tightening -10bps. In the US, IG spreads were steady, while HY tightened by -3bps.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 08:25

He's "Full Of Sh!t": JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Slams Coinbase's Armstrong, Declares War On Clarity Act

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:45:00 +0000

He's "Full Of Sh!t": JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Slams Coinbase's Armstrong, Declares War On Clarity Act

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has drawn a battle line in Washington: the Clarity Act, as written, is dead on arrival - and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is the enemy driving it.

In a Fox Business interview late last week, Dimon unloaded on the pending crypto market structure legislation, calling it a threat to the financial system and a gift to an industry that wants the privileges of banking without the responsibilities.

“It allows cryptocurrency firms to effectively pay interest on deposits - stablecoins or something like that - without the protection that they should have,” Dimon said.

“It has almost no legal protections.”

Jamie Dimon went on Fox and called Brian Armstrong "full of sh!t" over stablecoins. 😳

Jamie is the GOAT. Love him or loathe him, you absolutely know where he stands.

What stood out to me in the clip was to hear the CEO of America's biggest bank promise to fight, and admit he… pic.twitter.com/Jjbfj7zim9
— Simon Taylor (@sytaylor) May 31, 2026

As Micah Zimmerman reports for BitcoinMagazine.com, Dimon's core argument: if a crypto platform walks like a bank and talks like a bank, it needs to be regulated like one. That means Anti-Money Laundering compliance, Bank Secrecy Act obligations, FDIC insurance, capital requirements, liquidity rules, and the full weight of financial oversight that traditional banks carry. The Clarity Act, in his view, lets crypto firms skip all of it.

The fight over stablecoin rewards sits at the center of the dispute. Banks say allowing crypto exchanges to pay customers for holding stablecoins would accelerate deposit flight from traditional institutions — a ticking clock on the business model that has defined American banking for a century.

Crypto advocates counter that such incentives are a natural evolution of payments infrastructure. The bill’s markup is approaching, and neither side is backing down.

Dimon also flagged the AML problem with cross-border stablecoin payments.

“The first one may be legitimate,” he said, “the second one may be a sex trafficker.”

Once money lands in a digital wallet overseas, it can move to a third wallet, a fourth — with no visibility and no accountability. That, he said, is the unresolved risk hiding beneath the optimism around stablecoin utility.

Dimon: Coinbase CEO Armstrong is full of sh*t

But Dimon reserved his sharpest words for Armstrong. The Coinbase CEO, he claimed, is spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Washington to push the legislation through.

“No one is going to bow down to this guy,” Dimon said, calling Armstrong “full of sh*t.”

It was not the first time — Dimon made similar remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year.

JPMorgan is not alone. The American Bankers Association, community banks, and credit unions are aligned in opposition to the bill’s current form.

Dimon made clear this is a fight — not a negotiation.

“We’ll fight it,” he said. “If we lose, we lose. But it will be fought.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 07:45

SK Hynix Evacuates Thousands Of Workers At Chip Plant After Fire, Toxic Gas Leak

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:20:00 +0000

SK Hynix Evacuates Thousands Of Workers At Chip Plant After Fire, Toxic Gas Leak

One week, unions are threatening labor action at memory giant Samsung. The next, SK Hynix suffers an industrial accident. Together, the events highlight just how fragile the global memory supply chain has become at a time when AI data center buildouts have already pushed memory chip supply into extraordinarily tight territory.

South Korea's main national wire service, Yonhap News Agency, reports that SK Hynix, the world's second-largest DRAM producer, evacuated about 3,600 workers from its Cheongju semiconductor factory in South Korea after a fire and toxic gas leak.

The fire erupted Monday mid-morning in a sixth-floor gas room connecting the M15 and M15X plants and was quickly extinguished by the factory's fire suppression system. Seven people were injured.

SK Hynix believes the incident may have originated from a gas pipeline, adding that production lines for critical memory chips were not impacted.

SK Hynix is one of the world's top three memory chip companies, alongside Samsung and Micron. It controlled about 32% of the DRAM market in 4Q25, behind Samsung at 36% but ahead of Micron at 22.4%, according to TrendForce data.

This means that if the industrial accident had been more severe, any real production disruption at SK Hynix could have sparked a surge in DRAM prices. In other words, SK Hynix is a bottleneck supplier for the AI trade.

Our report early last week added to optimism in the DRAM and NAND memory chip markets because there is new evidence that China is flooding the chip market.

The Amazon price-tracking website CamelCamelCamel shows that retail pricing for DDR5 64GB memory chips dropped from $925 to about $853 in late May. Prices were around $200 one year ago.

We first outlined that hoarded supplies would begin to hit the market in late March.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 07:20

Millions Of Americans Are Giving Up On Buying New Cars

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:55:00 +0000

Millions Of Americans Are Giving Up On Buying New Cars

A growing number of Americans can no longer afford to buy new vehicles. Since 2020, roughly one million potential buyers have exited the market, and industry forecasts suggest they are unlikely to return soon, according to Wall Street Journal.

Although automakers initially expected sales to recover to pre-pandemic levels, persistent economic pressures have kept demand below earlier expectations.

Before COVID-19, U.S. new-vehicle sales typically reached around 17 million units annually. Today, most forecasts place demand closer to 16 million vehicles or less, with little chance of a full recovery in the near future. One major reason is cost: the average new vehicle now sells for nearly $50,000, and many models exceed $55,000. As entry-level options disappear, new cars have become increasingly out of reach for middle-income households.

The WSJ writes that automakers recognize that affordability has become a major obstacle. While some companies have announced plans to introduce less expensive models, substantial price reductions are not expected anytime soon. Rather than competing through discounts, manufacturers have concentrated on producing higher-margin vehicles such as pickups, SUVs, and premium trims.

The industry's approach changed during the pandemic, when supply shortages limited production but allowed companies to maintain strong profits through higher prices. That experience convinced many automakers that selling fewer vehicles can be more profitable than chasing volume through aggressive incentives. As a result, manufacturers have become more cautious about discounting and more focused on protecting profit margins.

Consumers who are priced out of the new-car market often look to used vehicles instead, but prices there have also risen significantly. Many households have responded by delaying purchases altogether and keeping their current vehicles longer. This trend has pushed the average age of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads to a record level of roughly 13 years.

At the same time, automakers face mounting expenses from tariffs, supply-chain challenges, and large investments in electric vehicle development. These costs further reduce the incentive to prioritize low-priced vehicles. Companies such as GM and Ford continue to emphasize trucks, SUVs, and other profitable models that generate stronger returns than compact economy cars.

Some manufacturers, including Stellantis, have pledged to expand their lineup of lower-cost vehicles in the coming years. Meanwhile, brands such as Toyota, Nissan, and Hyundai still offer some of the market's more affordable options, although they too have increasingly shifted toward SUVs and larger vehicles.

Industry analysts increasingly believe that annual U.S. vehicle sales may remain below the pre-pandemic norm for years to come. Returning to the 17-million-unit level would likely require a much larger supply of vehicles priced under $40,000. Until that happens, many consumers will continue postponing purchases and extending the life of the vehicles they already own.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 06:55

The Road To Hell Is Being Paved With Suicidal Empathy

Tyler Durden — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:30:00 +0000

The Road To Hell Is Being Paved With Suicidal Empathy

Authored by Bronwyn Eyre via The Epoch Times,

In his book-cover endorsement of “Suicidal Empathy: Dying to Be Kind,” author Bruce Bawer calls it “easily more important than any book in recent memory.” Elon Musk adds: “Western civilization is doomed unless the core weakness of suicidal empathy is recognized and actions are taken.”

They’re right. Professor Gad Saad’s newest book will jar your mindset and leave you with a degree of shock. You’ll want to tell others about it, and it will be a bestseller (in fact, it already is).

The book cover’s sketched lamb holding a sign reading “FREE THE WOLVES” delivers the book’s thesis in a nutshell—that the madness of misplaced empathy toward alien entities, cultures, and religions is suicidal. And the Western world—or at least a critical mass of its cultural and political influencers—is sold on the idea.

The book is freighted with stunning examples of lunatic policies that prioritize marginalized groups over cherished time-tested Judeo-Christian tenets, customs, and practices. In his chapter “Cultural Theory of Mind,” for instance, Saad discusses how both the British police and government declined “over several decades” to intervene in the “organized sexual exploitation of young white girls by ‘Asian’ grooming gangs across countless cities on an industrial-scale level … lest they might be accused of bigotry or, worse, Islamophobia.”

Some instances of suicidal empathy occur where you’d least suspect it. Traditionally, for example, merit and scientific aptitude have comprised the hallmark for entrance into medicine. But according to Saad, CanMEDS (which develops professional codes for physicians and surgeons in Canada) has devised a new model that “would seek to centre values such as anti-oppression, anti-racism, and social justice, rather than medical expertise.”

He then provides a 150-word statement elaborating on CanMEDS’ 2025 renewal guidelines—ones that address “ongoing structures of racism, white supremacy, settler colonialism, heteropatriarchy, capitalism, ableism, classism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, and more.”

Suicidal empathy—a Saad coinage, by the way—has become well-implanted in Canadian universities.

The University of Waterloo’s Cheriton School of Computer Science recently advertised for two positions—one in AI, the second in computer science. Position one “is open only to qualified individuals who self-identify as woman, transgender, gender-fluid, non-binary, or Two-spirit” while position two “is open only to qualified individuals who self-identify as a member of a racialized minority.”

Not to be outdone, the University of British Columbia recently advertised for a chair in oral cancer research. “The selection,” read the ad, “will be restricted to members of the following federally-designated groups: people with disabilities, Indigenous people, radicalized people, women, and people from minoritized gender identity groups.”

So that’s how the empathy cookie crumbles these days. Illegal immigrants are welcomed by the hundreds of thousands and often more accommodated than tax-paying citizens. Hamas terrorists are noble; Israel’s IDF “genocidal.” Squatters are prioritized over residents. Twerking drag queens entertain kindergartners during reading hour. Foreign aid is sluiced out with no strings attached. The “unhoused” occupy and despoil public parks. Free needles are handed out with little expectation they’ll be returned. Medical and fire department personnel are burned out by the coddling of street addicts.

Saad notes an academic movement that actually seeks to change the term “pedophile” to “minor-attracted people” (MAPS). In one of its papers entitled “Humanizing Pedophilia as Stigma Reduction,” the abstract begins: “The stigmatization of people with pedophilic sexual interests is a topic of growing academic and professional consideration, owing to its potential role in moderating pedophiles’ emotional well-being. Thus, reducing stigmatization toward this group is of paramount importance.”

My favourite example of suicidal empathy? That’s a tough one, but I’ll go with the government grant awarded to researchers at Concordia University to de-colonize light. On their “Decolonizing Light” website, the researchers explain that the “website explores ways and approaches to decolonize science, such as revitalizing and restoring Indigenous knowledges, and capacity building. The project aims to develop a culture of critical reflection and investigation of the relation of science and colonialism.”

It’s somewhat reassuring that the phenomenon of suicidal empathy has existed, in some form, for centuries. Saad cites two Aesop’s Fables—in one case, a kindly farmer takes a freezing viper into his warm coat pocket but is fatally bitten when the viper warms. In another, a scorpion convinces a frog to carry him across the river on his back then fatally stings the frog, because it’s in his nature to do so.

How proud one could feel if our political leaders were wise to the folly of misplaced empathy. But as Saad puts it: “Two former Canadian prime ministers, Pierre Elliott Trudeau and his son Justin Trudeau, are perfect exemplars of Western political leaders who have destroyed their nation’s cultural fabric via their empathetic commitment to cultural relativism.”

That might explain why, in 2017, Justin Trudeau authorized a $10.5 million payout to Omar Khadr for Canada’s alleged complicity with the United States in the violation of Khadr’s constitutional rights at Guantanamo Bay. He had killed an American soldier in the Afghan war and spent years in that prison, but was eventually handed over to Canadian authorities.

Saad, who fled the Lebanese civil war with his Jewish parents (who had earlier been kidnapped and ill-treated by the Palestine Liberation Organization), settled in Montreal and was taken on by Concordia University in 1994 as a marketing professor. He now terms himself an “evolutionary behavioural scientist.” He recently revealed on the Joe Rogan podcast that, amid repeated death threats, he’s leaving Canada to live in the United States.

Saad told the National Post: “I love Canada, but there comes a point where the abject antipathy that you experience from Canadian society forces you to look elsewhere to a place where you might be appreciated and allowed to flourish.” He’s now a scholar at the Center for the Study of American Freedom at the University of Mississippi.

A while back, I reviewed Piers Morgan’s latest book “Woke Is Dead” and wrote that it “might go a long way toward straightening out an age—as his subtitle states—‘of total madness’ for all of us.” Perhaps more than I realized at the time, Morgan’s optimism may involve too much wishful thinking. For, alas, Saad’s ominous outlook trumps Morgan’s auspicious one. Morgan himself revealed doubts in saying, for example, that “we must keep pounding” against wokeism and “woke is dead ... but we’re not totally in the clear.”

Saad tells how, in March of 2024, he posted some thoughts on his X feed regarding the “suicidal empathy” he felt is sending the West “into a death spiral.” He received an email from the publisher of Broadside Books with a link to the post and the comment, “Here’s your book idea.”

That idea is in sync with previous thinkers and writers. Arnold Toynbee argued that societies collapse when they fail to intelligently respond to new challenges. Thomas Sowell believed that the intelligentsia often espouse policies that make them feel virtuously compassionate, while being decoupled from the negative consequences of said policies. James Burnham, in his “Suicide of the West“ (1964), wrote that “suicide is probably more frequent than murder as the end phase of a civilization.”

So Saad is in good company in holding that the “West’s elitist progressive political class is infected by a mind parasite that causes its empathy module to misfire in every conceivable manner. Many of the policy decisions that are wreaking havoc in the West stem from this poor calibration of empathy, resulting in a society that is galloping toward the abyss of infinite lunacy.”

Hon. Bronwyn Eyre, LLB, is a Senior Fellow with the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy and Saskatchewan’s former Minister of Justice, Attorney General, and Minister of Energy.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/01/2026 - 06:30