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President Veto

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 15:10:00 +0000

President Veto

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Associated Press is calling the Congressional race in favour of the Democrats. The party wins both the House of Republicans and control of the Senate, changing the balance of power when the new Congress convenes at the start of 2027. However, President Trump still has the powers of veto and executive order, creating a divided government in the US.

The blue wave that swept through Congress will affect the policies that are proposed from next year, but Trump will probably veto any bill that he does not like. “I have the ultimate power – it’s called veto,” he said in an interview before voting closed, adding that “if we didn’t win, I veto everything. I’ll be vetoing, vetoing”. And, despite the Democrats’ big win, they will not have the required two-thirds majority in both chambers to overturn a veto. So, their policy proposals may not get far.

Trump added that his veto powers will eventually force the Democrats to make deals with him. But it may not be so easy to make concessions. Both parties share little common ground, so our US strategist believes that a legislative gridlock is the more likely result.

That’s particularly problematic for fiscal policy. Gridlock should limit additional spending or tax cuts, but the divided government also reduces the odds of a serious effort to shore up public finances. As a result, the term premium will probably remain a force keeping US long-term rates pinned at higher levels.

A first government shutdown approaches on December 11, and the debt limit may lead to more political brinkmanship in 2027. Aside from the uncertainty that this creates, the US economy should not expect any meaningful fiscal impulse. So, these results could weigh on US equities.

Meanwhile, President Trump may also test how far his other “tremendous power” reaches. Given an unsupportive Congress, the president will probably try to implement his policy agenda through executive orders. That particularly allows him to continue course on foreign policy, trade policy, and immigration.

That includes the decision on the way forward in the Middle East. The decision to attack Iran again, or not to, lies with the Commander in Chief. President Trump is showing restraint for now. He told the Financial Times that “We’re locked and loaded if we need to [strike Iran again], but there may be no reason for it.”

Oil futures fell sharply earlier in the week, after Trump indicated he wants to give diplomacy another chance, and front-dated futures have stayed lower since then. However, the recent rise in 2027 pricing suggests that markets may be shifting expectations to a scenario of tight supply and elevated transport costs into next year. To reiterate, we remain sceptical that there is enough common ground for a deal between the White House and Tehran, and believe that escalation in the coming weeks is likelier than not.

And, finally, by winning the Senate, Democrats can now also effectively block Trump’s appointments. That includes potential replacements for Fed Governors Cook, if she is forced out, and Powell, if he decides to resign from the central bank’s board.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 10:10

Rate-Hike Odds Rise As US Services Surveys Disappoint: Growth Strong But Inflation Stronger

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 15:05:00 +0000

Rate-Hike Odds Rise As US Services Surveys Disappoint: Growth Strong But Inflation Stronger

Following the mixed (but strong) Manufacturing survey data for October (ISM up, S&P down), the Services sector survey data this morning more unequivocal.

S&P Global US Services disappointed, falling from 58.8 to 56.1 (and worsening from the flash print of 57.9)
ISM US Services also disappointed, falling from 54.9 to 54.5 (below 54.8 exp)

The US Composite PMI remained comfortably above the critical 50.0 no-change mark in October to signal another month of private sector output growth - and remains the strongest globally. However, amid weaker gains in both manufacturing production and service sector activity, the index fell to 55.9, from 58.4 in September – the lowest in three months...

“The October PMI surveys mark a strong start to the fourth quarter for the US economy, indicative of GDP rising at an annualised rate of over 4%," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence

The star of the upturn remains the tech sector, but encouragingly solid supporting performances are also being seen in consumer-facing sectors and financial services

However, Williamson warns "the good news on growth is tainted by yet another worrying intensification of inflationary pressures and some disappointing forward-looking indicators from the survey."

Although current output growth remains strong, the pace of expansion has slowed from recent highs, linked to slower gains in order book inflows and reduced confidence about the economic outlook.

“Business optimism fell sharply across the vast services sector in October, reflecting worries relating to affordability, interest rates, and the uncertain political environment."

Under the hood, New Orders tumbled, employment bounced back into expansion, but prices paid remain elevated...

Average prices charged for services meanwhile rose at one of the fastest rates seen over the past four years. Combined with a jump in goods prices tracked by the October manufacturing PMI survey, the overall signal is for inflation to rise further above the Fed’s target in the coming months, and that is reflected in rising rate-hike odds for December...

Will Warsh be hiking into a data-center-deadening recession?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 10:05

'Republicans Should Be Shot': Students Charged In Michigan And Utah For Assaulting Conservatives On Campus

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 14:45:00 +0000

'Republicans Should Be Shot': Students Charged In Michigan And Utah For Assaulting Conservatives On Campus

Authored by Jonathan Turley via Jonathan Turley,

The political violence on campuses continued this week, with students at the University of Michigan and the University of Utah charged with criminal assaults on conservatives. For years, some of us have written about the increasingly radical environment in higher education where faculty have gradually eliminated conservatives and libertarians from departments.

At the University of Utah, Amber Grace was charged with misdemeanor assault and property damage. The College Fix reports that Grace allegedly assaulted a member of the College Republicans at the University of Utah. A video shows the transgender student threatening Republican students over a whiteboard poll that asked if there are only two genders.

During the confrontation, the Republican students ask, "Do you believe we should have the right to freedom of speech?"

Amber Grace responds, "No, I think Republicans should be shot in the streets, personally."

Transgender man says: "I think Republicans should be shot in the street" moments prior to brutally assaulting a College Republican student.

Republican students aren't safe around unstable men pretending they're woman.

Follow @UtahCollegeReps pic.twitter.com/ivu9G2igfE
— Rylie (@Rylieparis05) October 28, 2026

That is followed by Grace tackling the Republican student and the College Republicans also posted a photo of the aftermath of the attack, showing the assaulted member with a ripped shirt.

College Republican attacked while peacefully tabling at the University of Utah.

Transgender man rips shirt off conservative student for affirming there are only 2 genders.

Why does this keep happening on college campuses? pic.twitter.com/MKrlednw0m
— Utah College Republicans (@UtahCollegeReps) October 27, 2026

Grace is facing two Class B misdemeanor citations - for simple assault and property damage.

At the University of Michigan, Temulun Togochog was shown on video attacking a pro-Israel speaker. After yelling at the woman, Togochog allegedly smacked Joe Redden with her phone, then attacked Jewish conservative activist Liz Benichou, pushing her to the ground.

Togochog then resisted arrest and hit officers. While being handcuffed and led away, she is heard yelling, "I should have f***ing killed you when I had the f***ing chance."

🚨🚨 JUST NOW: Deranged Abdul Supporter tackled a Jewish girl (@basedinmalibu) at free speech event.

She was SWIFTLY arrested, resisted and then said “I SHOULD HAVE KILLED HER!!” As she was loaded into the police vehicle. pic.twitter.com/Sfs7ltt3Vs
— Cam Higby 🇺🇸 (@camhigby) November 1, 2026

She is now charged with one count of assaulting an officer and two counts of assault and battery under a pending felony warrant.

These cases are only the latest in a long line of incidents of political violence, largely from the left on our campus. This is the product of a radicalized environment, including faculty who are part of what I have called the "radical chic."

Radical faculty members on the left are common across the country, and many espouse the same hate-filled and violent rhetoric.

Professors have regularly advocated "detonating white people," denouncing police, calling for Republicans to suffer, strangling police officers, celebrating the death of conservatives, calling for the killing of Trump supporters, supporting the murder of conservative protesters, and making other outrageous statements. A San Diego University professor celebrated the death of an Israeli soldier who was eaten by a shark.

Such rhetoric creates a sense of license in those inclined toward violence, particularly those who are mentally unstable.

Obviously, these students should be suspended. However, there is a deeper issue in the environment in higher education that has fostered such political violence.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 09:45

Midterms Blue Wave Makes $917K For One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn't Flip...

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 14:25:00 +0000

Midterms Blue Wave Makes $917K For One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn't Flip...

Authored by Ryan S. Gladwin via Decrypt,

A "blue wave" swept the U.S. midterms as the Democrats took control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, in a crushing blow to President Donald Trump.

Polymarket predictor 0xA2 is the platform's most profitable trader over the past 24 hours, according to the site's daily leaderboard. They are currently $917,000 in profit, although most of that is still in an active position that has a real (albeit small) chance of upset.

The user wagered $609,644 on the Republicans not winning any Senate swing states when odds sat at just 36%, a market which has since surged to 87%. This turned his stake into $1.48 million, putting him $860,000 in the green.

It's important to remember: these are unrealized gains and could drop at any moment as 0xA2 waits for Alaska's final verdict. Polymarket traders put a 14% chance on an upset - and while this may seem small, the site has seen similarly sized upsets recently - as in the case of Brazil's presidential election two weeks ago.

0xA2 also profited $106,115 by predicting that the Democrats would win the Texas Senate - profits that have been realized. Oddly, the user's second largest active position is $1.42 million on the U.S. not confirming that aliens exist before 2027.

"Election night showed how quickly round-the-clock markets move when traditional exchanges are closed. As polls began closing at 6pm ET, Kalshi's odds of a Democratic sweep went from about 74% to 99%," Kelly Ye, Head of Research at digital asset management firm Talos, said in a note shared with Decrypt. "Prediction-market trading peaked between 8pm and 10pm ET, led by a small number of large trades."

It was a big day for Polymarket users profiting, with the top 10 users on the platform profiting more than $170,000, per the leaderboard. To put that into perspective, on a fairly random day in March this year, the top daily winner on Polymarket profited $154,000, according to the WayBackMachine, and the 10th biggest winner that day gained $29,700.

Prediction markets and elections

The midterms attracted major activity on leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. According to Precition.com data, midterm markets attracted more than $546 million in notional volume over the past two weeks.

"The 2024 election was the breakthrough moment for prediction markets. It was their first major real-world test and the event that really drove volume and open interest," Dash, the pseudonymous data lead at Prediction.com, told Decrypt. "Today, sports dominate trading volume, but Politics is still the key driving factor for open interest."

During the 2024 presidential race, Polymarket became what Bernstein analysts called the world's largest election prediction market, with its flagship market topping $3.6 billion in volume. Maybe more importantly, predictors favored Trump for most of the campaign, while traditional polls kept him neck and neck with Kamala Harris. Prediction market users took this as a sign that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional political polling.

"Increasingly, people are looking for accurate forecasts on election results," Dash said, "and prediction markets are one place they can be found."

Those forecasts aren't always accurate, though. Just two weeks ago, Polymarket predictors whiffed Brazil's presidential election, with users giving Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva about a 20% chance of winning ahead of election day, before he ultimately beat Flávio Bolsonaro to take a fourth term.

Experts told Decrypt at the time that Brazil's prediction market ban had left the odds in the hands of traders with little local knowledge to correct the odds. Plus, experts warned that a 20% chance of something happening is still a very real chance.

"Ultimately, something that has an 80% chance of happening does not happen 20% of the time," Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, said.

So that 14% chance that 0xA2 loses his $860,000 in profit should be taken seriously.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 09:25

Trump Designates Anti-Communism Week In Election Day Proclamation

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 14:10:00 +0000

Trump Designates Anti-Communism Week In Election Day Proclamation

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump declared Nov. 1 through Nov. 7 as Anti-Communism Week with a presidential action signed on Election Day.

Communism is the exact opposite of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness - the very principles America was founded on. pic.twitter.com/xFhAEYgkDH
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) November 3, 2026

"This week, we honor the victims of socialism and communism by remembering their lives, defending the freedoms that were denied, renewing our resolve to safeguard the Republic entrusted to us, and reminding ourselves that what we have created as a Nation stands as the greatest testament to human freedom in the history of the world," the proclamation issued Nov. 3 reads.

"I call upon all Americans to stand firm in their defense against any threat to the American way of life and to protect our burning flame of liberty from the darkness of communism."

The document describes socialism and communism as persistent threats to Americans' liberty, ideologies designed to "eliminate individual opportunity, subjugate individuals to the state, and extinguish the God-given rights upon which free nations are built."

Trump contrasted communism's harmful nature - utilizing "control over human thought, creativity, and political expression, resulting in suffering, poverty, exploitation, violence, and misery for millions" - with the ideals instilled by the nation's founders.

"We must remain vigilant in defending the principles that sustain our Republic and ensure the lessons of history are never forgotten nor repeated," he wrote in the proclamation.

"[W]e renew our commitment to protect the sacred values of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness from the chains of tyranny."

More than a billion people are living under a communist regime's control in five countries around the world, including the Chinese Communist Party, Cuba's Communist Party, the Lao People's Revolutionary Party, the Workers' Party of North Korea, and the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Historically, communism is responsible for more than 100 million deaths globally.

The timing of the action, falling while the earliest polls were closing, comes after Trump criticized Democratic Party candidates as socialists and communists while on the campaign trail crisscrossing the nation over the past month.

After a wave of candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America won primary elections across the country earlier this year, Republicans focused their messaging on countering communism and socialist policies.

The Democratic Socialists of America made national headlines last year with the election of Zohran Mamdani as New York City mayor. His election spurred a flurry of criticism from Republicans, who said it was a signal the Democratic Party was moving far left on the political spectrum.

The president's Nov. 3 proclamation serves as a commitment to protect the Constitution from insidious acts, though it is limited in terms of legal authority.

Trump issued a similar action last year and has long voiced opposition to communist and socialist agendas.

In July 2025, he also proclaimed Captive Nations Week, continuing a tradition established by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1959 to counter the threat of communism. Trump gave his support to "every person living under a totalitarian regime" and said he was committed "to advancing a new era of peace where freedom is cherished, sovereignty is respected, and every nation can live without fear of tyranny or oppression."

Legislation introduced by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) last year sought to make Anti-Communism Week an annual occurrence, though the bill has stalled in committee.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 09:10

'Sharply Negative': Kremlin Concerned Democratic Sweep Will Imperil US-Russia Peace Efforts

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 13:40:00 +0000

'Sharply Negative': Kremlin Concerned Democratic Sweep Will Imperil US-Russia Peace Efforts

While the Iranians are celebrating with smug satisfaction the Democrats' historic midterm blue tsunami in the US midterm elections, Russia's leadership is reacting very differently.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on Wednesday bluntly stated that that leaders in the US Democratic Party have a "sharply negative" approach to relations with Moscow.

via AFP

"We will continue our work in accordance with the directives of the President of the Russian Federation," he added, coming at a sensitive moment where the Kremlin has been welcoming President Trump's latest decisions on Ukraine, which have piled the pressure on Zelensky to make compromise.

Not only has Trump of late repeatedly suggested that Zelensky must go, calling for elections in Ukraine, but he has refused to sign into effect the "Lindsey O. Graham" sanctions, while lifting the sanctions on Russian diesel. These decisions have by and large outraged Democrats.

Ryabkov stated further that Russia's position on Ukraine and broader foreign policy "is not based on short-term considerations and, naturally, does not depend on the fluctuations of the political barometer in other countries."

"The Democratic Party leadership's approach to relations with Russia is sharply negative. There is nothing new about that." --Sergey Ryabkov

President Putin himself has repeatedly emphasized that Moscow will see its 'special military operation' through to the end, with or without a peace settlement.

Still, the Kremlin is fully aware that the Democrats taking back the Senate and gaining a firm majority in the House could make Trump's more positive and open approach to Russian relations all the more difficult.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has expressed hope that Trump will continue his "peacemaking efforts" after the midterm elections.

"President Trump continues to exercise his powers. We sincerely hope that he will also continue his peacemaking efforts," he said in the Wednesday remarks.

While "panic" is much too strong a word, it's clear that Kremlin officials are concerned about what the future of relations with Washington will hold...

🚨 Panic in the Kremlin after a major defeat for Republicans

Peskov hopes the US midterm election results won't affect Trump's "peace efforts."

But Moscow is unlikely to be too worried about the possible end of humanitarian efforts or talks about a "ceasefire."

The real… pic.twitter.com/qCpW5dsUxW
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 4, 2026

China, however, has reacted with a more muted statement and with some cautious optimism. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing plans to continue "constructive strategic relationship" with Washington, describing China's view that US elections are a “domestic affair”.

"China is willing to work with the US to safeguard and implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, strengthen communication, properly manage differences and expand cooperation, build a constructive strategic relationship based on respect and equality," Mao told a press briefing in Beijing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 08:40

ADP Employment Report Signals Strong Labor Market Across The Board, Wage Growth Accelerates

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 13:30:00 +0000

ADP Employment Report Signals Strong Labor Market Across The Board, Wage Growth Accelerates

ADP's Employment Report showed a better than expected rise in jobs in October, up 86k (vs +67k exp) - the 16th monthly rise in employment in a row...

"Employers of all sizes were hiring last month," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

The Services Industry saw job gains accelerate while Manufacturing slowed with the advance reflecting gains in trade, transportation and utilities, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, financial activities and construction.

Richardson also noted that ADP data suggests that "job-changers were lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay."

Taken together, earnings growth for these workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024.

This is certainly one for the positive check box into Friday's payrolls as robust consumer spending and strong economic growth has underpinned the resilience of the labor market, enabling some firms to expand their workforces despite lingering cost pressures.

Perhaps most importantly, consistent hiring can help keep unemployment low and allow the Fed to stay focused on fighting inflation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 08:30

Tehran Gloats Over 'Heavy Defeat' For Trump As Americans Said 'No To War'

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 13:15:00 +0000

Tehran Gloats Over 'Heavy Defeat' For Trump As Americans Said 'No To War'

Little is expected to change, for now at least, regarding Iran's state of high alert and readiness to retaliate as it faces off US forces for control of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian leadership is engaging to some 'told ya so' rhetoric and has breathed a sigh of relief that political chickens have come home to roost in the US midterm election, after Democrats have retaken control of the US Senate, and swept the House.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated on X Wednesday morning that Americans have resoundingly said "NO TO WAR" at the polls and that Tehran endorses this message, referring to the midterm elections.

Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.

If the US govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) November 4, 2026

He emphasied that the American public rejected war whether because of "conscience or the cost of living," in an initial reaction statement on X. He further warned the Trump administration of a “nightmare” if it goes against the public's will.

"If the US govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare," he added.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who issued a message decaring Nov. 4 as "Iran’s National Day of the Fight Against Global Arrogance" - cautioned the Iranian public that partisan political shifts in the US won't actually alter Washington's fundamental "hostility" towards Tehran.

"If there are still those who harbour even the slightest hope that the behavior of the hegemonic system could change through party or factional shifts, or who believe that making concessions to the US could persuade it to abandon its hostility towards the Iranian people, they are gravely mistaken," said Khamenei in a statement carried by Iranian state media.

"The US sees the end of its hegemony as distant; we see it as near,” the Supreme Leader stated.

NBC observed of the Iranian reaction, "The midterm drubbing suffered by President Donald Trump’s Republicans was met with smug satisfaction in Iran, which framed the election rout as a repudiation of the war launched against it by the United States and Israel."

Associated Press: Workers wave from a raised platform while installing a billboard in central Tehran, Iran, on Nov. 3, 2026.

Iranian state media has been gloating on Wednesday. One headline from IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency declared "War on Iran Emerges As Major Factor in Republicans’ Midterm Defeat."

Politico has observed more in the following:

State-run IRNA led its page with a headline announcing “heavy defeat for Trump and his supporters,” which claimed “an unprecedented level of dissatisfaction with US President Donald Trump” — owed in large part to the war.
Anti-war advocates in Washington were also quick to declare Tuesday’s vote a win for Tehran.
“The Democrats didn’t win the midterms,” Trita Parsi, co-founder of the anti-interventionist Quincy Institute, wrote on social media. “Iran did.”

In January, as Trump threatened to attack Iran to compel it to capitulate, I told a senior Trump official that Iran won't surrender and that their calculation is that they don't need to win the war against the US; they just need to destroy Trump's presidency.

They just did.
— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) November 4, 2026

Despite all of this, President Trump says he remains "totally convinced" that launching the Iran war was the right decision.

He has told Fox that the Iran's unpopulariy was "part of" the reason for huge GOP losses in the midterms, but he still claimed had "no choice" and acted to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He has separately told Politico that he is "totally convinced" that launching the war was the right call for the long term. He has framed his decision-making as 'necessary' in the long run of history.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 08:15

Tesla, SpaceX Tumble As Blue Wave Hits Texas, Putting Musk's Empire In Democrats' Crosshairs

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 13:00:00 +0000

Tesla, SpaceX Tumble As Blue Wave Hits Texas, Putting Musk's Empire In Democrats' Crosshairs

The Democratic midterm sweep threatens to complicate President Trump's "America First" agenda. Still, the biggest risk to the nation's industrial revival is at the state and local levels, as Democrats are set to push data center moratoriums.

At the state level, Democrats' sweep of Texas will likely deliver a particularly hard blow to Musk, who uprooted operations to escape California Democrats years ago. Now, Tesla and SpaceX are clear targets for Texas Democrats.

Lefty James Talarico was elected as Texas senator, and Gina Hinojosa was elected governor, making them the first Democrats to win either office in more than a generation. These Democrats have called for immediate AI regulation and a moratorium on data centers, and there will likely be immense state-level lawfare against Musk's Tesla and SpaceX empires.

Now official… Democrats just won every single statewide office in Texas:

Senate
Governor
Lt. Governor
Attorney General
Land Commissioner
Comptroller of Public Accounts
Agriculture Commissioner
Railroad Commissioner
All 4 Supreme Court Justices
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) November 4, 2026

The market seems to have priced in this fate for Musk's empires, as Tesla and SpaceX are both down nearly 6% in premarket trading.

Musk, a top Republican donor, had contributed nearly $450 million to GOP coffers and urged his X followers to vote against Democrats.

First New York's Vikram Rai told Bloomberg during an interview last week that both Tesla and SpaceX "have major headline risk if we get a blue sweep."

Goldman expects:

On AI and data center regulation, Democratic wins at the state and local level are likely to have significant implications. The Democratic side explicitly campaigned on stricter data center regulation, that could end certain tax breaks (a priority for Hinojosa), tighten environmental, water, and electricity rules, and make it easier for localities to impose their own moratoria.

Goldman continues:

The states where Democrats are likely to further restrict data centers account for roughly 45% of planned US data center capacity, with Texas alone accounting for roughly 25%.

However ...

We expect that the issue will fade somewhat in importance in the ensuing months and that these moratoria will not be long-lived if they are enacted. However, since data centers are low on the list of priorities for voters this election, we expect that the issue will fade somewhat in importance in the ensuing months and that these moratoria will not be long-lived if they are enacted.

Nasdaq futures tanked overnight, then ripped higher as Democrats won majorities in the House and Senate. But the trillion-dollar question is how the AI boom will continue with so many governors now opposed. The data center buildout is critical to Trump's reindustrialization policies and efforts to bolster the economy, and one can only suspect that Dems will use their newfound power to derail data center buildouts and crush the economy ahead of the 2028 election.

Goldman on governors:

Republicans lost the gubernatorial elections in Texas, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan, and Democrats gained a trifecta in Pennsylvania and likely in Arizona as well. In each of these states except Ohio, the Democratic side explicitly campaigned on stricter data center regulation, and we expect Democratic governors in Texas, Georgia, and Michigan to impose conditional moratoria pending new legislation restricting data centers.

"Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn't work this time," Musk joked on X overnight.

He added, "Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now."

Which leaves us with another question: Will Musk stay in Texas?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 08:00

Belarus's Lukashenko Says Trump Is Keeping Europe From World War III... And Wants Him Given The Nobel

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:35:00 +0000

Belarus's Lukashenko Says Trump Is Keeping Europe From World War III... And Wants Him Given The Nobel

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump's interventions are helping to keep the Russia - Ukraine war from descending into global conflict, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said, as representatives from Kyiv and Moscow prepare to meet for talks mediated by the United States.

"Trump is essentially keeping the world, for now, from World War III, which could erupt as a nuclear conflict," Lukashenko said during his address at the 4th Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security on Nov. 3, according to the Belarusian state news agency BelTA.

He added that such a conflict would not spare any nation, even if it were on the other side of an ocean, suggesting it was of global interest for tensions to ease in his region.

Lukashenko also said that Trump should get the Nobel Peace Prize "even just for keeping Europeans from triggering a nuclear conflict."

"Even without realizing it, he is truly restraining Mother Europe from World War III, which could ultimately end in a nuclear catastrophe," he said.

The Belarusian president made the remarks after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced that the United States will mediate working-level negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Nov. 10 - Nov. 11 in Abu Dhabi.

Minsk is a close ally of Moscow, and Lukashenko allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to use the country as a launchpad to invade Ukraine in 2022, later agreeing to let Russia station tactical nuclear missiles on its territory.

Despite the close ties between Russia and Belarus, Lukashenko has said that Belarus was not looking to join the conflict, urging a peaceful resolution to the war.

On Tuesday, the Belarusian president said that pulling his country into the conflict would be a "terrible escalation, very dangerous and very unprofitable for us."

He went on to say that Minsk was ready to help end the war, offering to host negotiations to try to bring a peaceful resolution.

Talks in Abu Dhabi

Witkoff said on Monday that the three-way talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States in Abu Dhabi next week would focus on de-escalation and the next steps towards peace, as well as humanitarian efforts and post-war security arrangements.

"We look forward to building on the progress made in Kyiv, Oslo, and St. Petersburg toward a comprehensive, durable peace agreement that delivers lasting security for generations to come," the U.S. envoy said in a post on X.

He added that U.S. negotiators will meet this week in Brussels with representatives from France, Germany, the UK, the European Union, and NATO, to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and economic opportunities to support the country's post-war reconstruction, as well as Europe's security architecture.

Commenting on Witkoff's announcement that the United States will mediate these negotiations, Putin aide Kirill Dmitriev said in a Nov. 3 post on X that "the world appreciates the peacemaking efforts of President Trump and his team."

The White House said in a Nov. 3 statement that First Lady Melania Trump will host representatives of Russia and Ukraine on Nov. 5.

This follows her efforts to successfully secure a limited ceasefire in Oleshky and the surrounding Kherson region.

"This achievement marks an unprecedented diplomatic initiative by an American first lady," the statement said.

Melania Trump will deliver remarks on the ceasefire on Thursday at the White House.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 07:35

Futures Rip As Wall Street Buys The Blue Tsunami; Dollar Slides, Gold Tops $4,000

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:28:23 +0000

Futures Rip As Wall Street Buys The Blue Tsunami; Dollar Slides, Gold Tops $4,000

US futures are higher as dip buyers turned an overnight "blue tsunami" puke into a broad rally: Democrats swept both chambers of Congress, initially sending Nasdaq 100 futures down as much as 2.4% on fears of tighter AI regulation and a Texas data center freeze, before President Trump's conciliatory tone (he said Democrats did "a good job" and that he can work with them), AMD's blowout guide and the monetization of a pile of election hedges flipped futures solidly green; as a result the dollar is heading for its worst day since early September while gold blasts back above $4,000. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.9% higher at 7,665 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%, Russell 2000 futures jump 1.3% and Dow futures are up roughly 1.7%, or about 870 points, as VIX tumbles 12.8% to 18.16. Stocks rose on Tuesday ahead of the vote, with the S&P 500 snapping a three-day losing streak and semis rebounding 2.6% after an 11.6% three-session plunge. In premarket trading, the Mag 7 is mostly higher led by Amazon, while Musk's Tesla and SpaceX bear the brunt of the blue wave; AMD (+6.3%), Super Micro (+9.2%) and Arista (+10.9%) lead chips higher after earnings, confirming our article from last night, while solar names soar and defense stocks slide. The day's driver is politics (finally): Democrats flipped Senate seats in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Iowa and Maine, won the governorships of Texas, Ohio and Georgia, and are on track for at least 54 Senate seats; as we explained overnight, Texas turned blue and futures turned green as the market concluded the AI fallout would mean regulation rather than cessation. Treasuries are bid with yields 3-5bps lower and the 10Y at about 4.915% as divided government curbs the fiscal outlook and the curve flattens ahead of the 8:30am refunding announcement. The Bloomberg dollar index slides 0.5% to the lowest since Sept. 30, with the kiwi leading G10 gains and EUR/USD up 0.6%. In commodities, WTI is down about 1% near $95 as Trump played down the prospect of imminent strikes on Iran, while gold jumps 3% and silver surges almost 5%; copper is flat. Bitcoin rises about 1% to $78,480. US economic data slate includes October ADP employment change (8:15am), September trade balance (8:30am), October final S&P Global services and composite PMIs (9:45am) and ISM services (10am). There are no Fed speakers scheduled. The Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am and sells $75 billion of 17-week bills at 11:30am.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Amazon (AMZN) +3%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) +1.9%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.9%, Apple (AAPL) +1.5% while Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) falls 5% as election results sharpen investor concern over the future of the Republican megadonor’s key holdings. SpaceX (SPCX), while not a member of the Magnificent Seven, drops 6%, as election results sharpen investor concern over the future of the Republican megadonor’s key holdings.

Some data center and cloud computing stocks slip after Democrats made strong gains in midterm elections, clinching control of both chambers of Congress. Gina Hinojosa is set to become Texas governor after a state-level race that Bank of America strategists had described as a “referendum on affordability versus AI data centers.” CoreWeave (CRWV), Equinix (EQIX), GE Vernova (GEV) and Oracle (ORCL) are among the decliners, while other AI-linked names are broadly higher
Solar, defense and healthcare stocks are also moving on election results.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) gains 1% after the chipmaker gave a sales forecast that soared past analysts’ projections, a sign of buoyant demand for data center processors.
Amdocs (DOX) plummets 38% after the IT services company’s outlook came in weaker than expected, reflecting a dispute with T-Mobile.
Array Technologies (ARRY) gains 9% after agring to combine with Shoals Technologies (SHLS).
Block (XYZ) rises 10% after the payments company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that inched past analysts’ expectations.
CVS Health (CVS) slips 2% after the health insurer said it plans to spin off its retail pharmacy business.
Duolingo (DUOL) rises 19% after the language-learning software company raised its full-year revenue and adjusted Ebitda outlook above consensus expectations.
Flywire (FLYW) gains 7% after the payments software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations and it gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
Freshworks (FRSH) falls 9% after the software company’s outlook was seen as underwhelming. The company also reported third-quarter results in line with expectations, below its historical pattern of greater upside.
Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) gains 14% after the chipmaker’s results and forecast beat expectations, prompting Rosenblatt Securities to upgrade the stock.
Procore Technologies (PCOR) climbs 12% after the construction management software provider reported third-quarter revenue that topped Wall Street’s consensus.
Skyworks (SWKS) slumps 10% after the company’s first-quarter revenue forecast missed the consensus estimates.
Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) falls 4% after the biotech said it does not plan to advance SPY072 in rheumatic diseases.
Super Micro (SMCI) climbs 2% after the maker of servers forecast net sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In other corporate news, Oracle canceled a $7 billion chip leasing deal with Tencent under pressure from the Trump administration, the FT reported, which is one way to make the China decoupling trade official. CVS Health will break off its retail pharmacy business into a separate company and now sees FY adjusted EPS of at least $8.20 vs. a prior $7.90-$8.10 and consensus of $8.05. McDonald's Q3 comp sales rose 1.5% vs. est. +1.35%, while Uber sees Q4 gross bookings of $63.25 billion to $65.25 billion vs. est. $64.29 billion. HP Inc. named Emma Walmsley as CEO. Meta is making its debut in the euro bond market with a six-part offering, a day after raising $15 billion in dollars with orders for as much as $58 billion, as Big Tech keeps racing to fund trillions in AI investment. Alphabet's Google plans to spend $15 billion to expand data center and cloud operations in Malaysia. Amgen raised its sales and profit forecast for the third time this year, while Booking's Q4 outlook disappointed on softer international travel. In M&A, Carl Icahn's CVR Energy agreed to buy two refineries and a related marketing business from Marathon Petroleum for about $4.2 billion, and NextEra and Dominion offered Virginia additional concessions on their $67 billion merger. Elsewhere, Revolut confirmed a $115 billion valuation in its secondary share sale and Blackstone raised around €13 billion for European direct lending.

The night was a rollercoaster: as results rolled in, S&P 500 futures were down as much as 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 contracts as much as 2.4% before both erased the losses, with Bloomberg's Michael Msika noting that investors "had been turning defensive and reducing positioning on tech for weeks into the elections, paving the way for the knee-jerk move lower overnight to morph into gains." In other words, the blue wave turned into a clearing event for bulls (for now), with the Nasdaq 100 bouncing after nearing oversold levels and testing its 200-day moving average.

“It’s mostly opportunistic dip buying since we’re now past peak mid-term election uncertainty,” said Justin Lin, a strategist at Global X ETFs. “Now that we’re here, there will be optimistic buyers who are willing to pick up the pieces.”

Not everyone was so sanguine: Bank of America's Michael Hartnett had predicted a Democratic sweep would be a risk-off moment with stocks, the dollar and yields falling into year-end, warning that a blue wave signaled an “electoral shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism,” with further tax and regulation likely. Invesco's David Chao took the other side of the macro argument: “Less fiscal stimulus could reduce upward pressure on US growth, inflation and Treasury yields, potentially easing some of the pressure that higher US rates and a stronger dollar have placed on Asian currencies and monetary policy.”

Valuations are no longer much of an excuse to stay away: the Nasdaq 100 has nearly erased all its valuation premium to the S&P 500, and with a forward P/E of around 19, absolute valuations are near the bottom of a 10-year range and well below the average of 23 over the period, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the other big policy trade to watch is healthcare vs. financials: for months the market had been pricing a Democrat victory by boosting healthcare and dumping financials, which have been a Trump proxy; that trade could now stabilize given headline risk for both sectors under a Democratic Congress.

The biggest single overhang is Texas: data center developers seeking to build dozens of AI campuses across the state were already dealing with a suspension of approvals under Republican Governor Greg Abbott, and under Gina Hinojosa, the first Democratic governor of the Lone Star State in more than three decades, they are facing their worst-case scenario. Goldman's Jonathan Lightowler notes that Hinojosa said she will not lift the data-center permitting freeze until more comprehensive regulation passes, which could push gigawatts due online in 2027 into 2028, while GS Econ warns state-level Democratic wins are "likely to lead to short-term data center moratoria, potentially affecting about 45% of planned US data center capacity expansion," with Texas alone about 25%. GS utilities analyst Carly Davenport flagged the Texas result as a potential negative for VST, NRG, SRE and XEL.

And yet the market shrugged: JPM's Market Intel desk under Andrew Tyler argues "fears emanating for a change in control in Texas were overblown given the multitude of other states where datacenters could be built" and that a change in control likely means regulation rather than a cessation of data center activity; still, the desk is "not yet comfortable saying that this marks the ‘All Clear’ to re-gross into the theme but it is another positive step." JPM stays Tactically Bullish, expects a Tech rebound and recommends a barbell of Tech and Cyclicals with a heavier weight on Cyclicals. JPM's Craig Cohen adds that the SPX has been up a year after every midterm election since 1950 with an average gain of around 15%.

Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky had a similar take: "my gut is that AI infrastructure has been sold to death, and investors will start differentiating between the capacity that exists and the capacity that may never arrive," adding that "throttling the supply of compute doesn't necessarily destroy demand… it could just push pricing higher for longer." Goldman's flow desk (Sean Vogel) noted that "a lot of hedges were put on over the past few days that now need to be monetized", which goes a long way toward explaining the morning's melt-up. Lightowler summed up the political verdict: "Dems generally surpassing seat projections in what is now a clear 'blue tsunami' scenario." As for what comes next, GS Econ expects Democrats "to use fiscal deadlines to seek to limit the war with Iran, roll back selected tariffs, and reverse spending cuts enacted last year," with the first test on Dec. 11 when spending authority expires.

Not to be outdone, Trump himself took a victory lap of sorts in defeat, saying he would have won in a landslide had he been on the ballot (more here), while noting that veto power is one of the strongest powers he has. On Iran, he said the US has no immediate plans to strike, even as Iran's leader warned of a "far wider" response to any further attack and the IRGC said four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 1.2% at 653.58, with banks leading gains alongside renewables and miners, while energy, defense and tech lag; Spain and Italy lead the regional benchmarks with the UK lagging but still positive, while JPM notes baskets tied to Renewables, Ceasefire/Rebuild and EU Domestics are outperforming, with MidEast Escalation, Defense and Freight Rates lagging. Novo Nordisk jumped as much as 6.6% after its Wegovy pill sales beat and it boosted its outlook, while European defense names slid as investors pared bets on a further ramp-up in US military spending. Here are the biggest European movers:

Novo Nordisk rises as much as 6.6% after the Danish drugmaker reported adjusted sales for its blockbuster Wegovy pill for the third quarter that beat estimates and boosted outlook.
European renewables stocks jump after Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress in the midterm elections. Barclays analysts said the result eases political risk on US renewables and supporting networks.
Continental shares rise as much as 6.7%. The auto parts manufacturer raised its guidance on adjusted Ebit margin and adjusted free cash flow, driven by higher sales of ultra-high-performance tires and a particularly strong showing in Europe.
Marks & Spencer shares gain as much as 4.2% as investors welcomed “bullish” mid-term guidance and a strong first-half performance in food. While fashion, home and beauty delivered a miss, its performance is expected to improve in the second half.
Ahold Delhaize shares gain as much as 4.3%. The Dutch retailer downgraded its full-year outlook, citing a cybersecurity incident which impacted the business in October which is expected to reduce fourth-quarter net sales by between €200 million and €250 million.
Siltronic shares jump as much as 10% after the wafer maker raised its sales and Ebitda margin guidance, citing stronger demand and a volume increase that’s offsetting negative price trends.
Metro Bank rises as much as 14% as Citi says the lender has delivered an “encouraging” third-quarter update.
European defense stocks fall as investors revise down their bets on further ramp-up in military spending after results from the US midterms show Democrats are poised to sweep both chambers of Congress.
DSM-Firmenich shares fall as much as 9% before paring losses after third-quarter results and an upgraded full-year sales outlook from the specialty chemicals firm failed to match raised expectations.
Weir drops as much as 8.2% after the mining technology and equipment provider reported underwhelming order intake in the latest quarter, according to analysts. JPMorgan cut its price target on the stock.

Asian stocks dropped to their lowest in over six months before reversing most of the losses as traders digested the US midterm results. Japan underperformed, with the Nikkei 225 closing down 1.4% at 62,188.63 after falling more than 3% intraday and the Topix down 0.9%, as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group and Kioxia fell on AI regulation fears; Goldman's Asia desk said AI names fell 4.4% and semis 3.8%. South Korea's Kospi swung through a seven-percentage-point range, falling as much as 4% before closing up 0.6% at 5,683.80, with foreigners net selling $1.9 billion while solar and EV names soared (Hanwha Solutions +18.6%). China outperformed: the CSI 300 rose 2.3% and the Hang Seng gained 1.7% after the PBOC stepped up its stock repurchase and relending support, with Goldman noting the second-largest national team ETF inflow on record. Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.6% and Taiwan's Taiex slid 0.8%, after being down as much as 3.4% intraday. "Flows remained cautious across developed Asian markets, with institutional selling and de-grossing evident, while mainland China was supported by policy easing and strong national team ETF buying," Goldman's Jeremiah Khong wrote.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.5% to the lowest since Sept. 30 and is headed for its worst day since early September, as a Democratic Congress is seen as lower growth, lower yields and more friction for Trump's agenda. The greenback is weaker against every G10 peer, with the kiwi leading (NZD/USD up as much as 0.8% to 0.5634) and EUR/USD up 0.6% to around 1.1259. The yen has lagged: USD/JPY trades in a 157.38-158.74 range, close to intervention territory, prompting Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara to say authorities will monitor markets "with a high sense of urgency". The yuan slipped after the PBOC set a weaker fixing, which Goldman says was the largest one-day increase in the USDCNY fix since Aug. 18, a day after Beijing hiked the FX reserve ratio to slow the yuan rally.

In rates, Treasuries advance into the early US session with yields 3bp to 5bp richer across the curve and the 2s10s spread around 2bp flatter, as the prospect of divided government curbs the Trump administration's tax and spending plans; the 10-year, close to 5bp lower around 4.915%, outperforms bunds and gilts by 4bp and 2bp respectively. At the overnight peak, the 10Y was down as much as 7bps before paring when Trump struck a conciliatory note. All eyes are now on the 8:30am quarterly refunding announcement, where many dealers expect the issuance guidance to be altered; Goldman expects 10-to-30-year auction sizes to be held steady with 2-to-7-year increases starting in May 2027 and warns that a market leaning toward long-end cuts leaves "scope for disappointment." European bonds tracked Treasuries higher after the clean Democratic sweep eased concerns about Trump's fiscal plans, with the French 10-year yield down 5bps to 4.90% early and the 10-year gilt yield falling 5bps to 5.21%, even as euro-area inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October, double the ECB's target. The IG dollar issuance slate is empty so far (Meta already did its $15 billion on Tuesday), and there are no Fed speakers to distract from the refunding.

“Upside risk to today’s core euro zone HICP could put temporary pressure on markets, but we stick with our view to continue buying Bund dips for the time being,” Hauke Siemssen, rates strategist at Commerzbank, wrote in a note.

In commodities, WTI for December is down about 1% near $95, trading in a $94.60-97.15 range, while Brent for January fell 1% to $102.55 after sliding from a high of $104.96, as Trump played down the prospect of imminent strikes on Iran and traders bet a Democratic Congress will work to end the conflict; crude bounced off worst levels after Iran's leader warned of a much broader response if the US repeats its aggression, and the IRGC said four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz. The API reported US crude inventories fell 5.3 million barrels last week. Spot gold surged 3% to about $4,047/oz and silver jumped 4.8% to $52.19 as the dollar and yields slid, while LME copper is flat after recovering from an overnight drop on AI regulation fears. Dutch TTF gas is firmer after the IEA warned European gas reserves are at their lowest since 2013.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes October ADP employment change (8:15am), September trade balance (8:30am), October final S&P Global services and composite PMIs (9:45am) and October ISM services (10am); JPM's Michael Feroli expects the ISM composite to improve to 55.5 from 54.9, while Goldman sees 54.9. The Treasury quarterly refunding announcement is at 8:30am and the Treasury sells $75 billion of 17-week bills at 11:30am. There are no Fed speakers scheduled. CVS, McDonald's, Uber, Datadog, Emerson, Kraft Heinz, Circle and Flutter report before the open, while Qualcomm, AppLovin, Snap, Expedia, MetLife and Allstate report after the close.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

Democrats swept the House and Senate in midterm landslides as voters rebuked Donald Trump over the economy and the Iran war. BBG
President Donald Trump congratulated Democrats for doing “a good job” after the party inflicted devastating defeats on his Republican allies, winning back both houses of Congress and picking up several governors’ mansions. BBG
The president now faces a grueling second-term reality as a lame duck: endless subpoenas, legislative gridlock and a shrinking window to secure his legacy. BBG
GIR on Midterms: Democrats have won the majority in the House and Senate. The larger-than-expected majorities could give them slightly greater leverage in negotiations with the White House, but will also dilute the influence of small factions within the Democratic caucus. We expect Democrats to use fiscal deadlines to seek to limit the war with Iran, roll back selected tariffs, and reverse spending cuts enacted last year. GIR
Data center developers seeking to build dozens of sprawling artificial intelligence campuses across Texas were already dealing with a suspension of approvals under Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Under Gina Hinojosa, elected on Tuesday as the first Democratic governor of the Lone Star State in more than three decades, they’re facing their worst-case scenario. BBG
Elon Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX shares fell premarket as results fanned concerns about tighter AI regulation and called into doubt a potential merger. CoreWeave and data center hardware supplier stocks including TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also fell. BBG
Among all the market gyrations triggered by the US midterm elections, few were as wild as those in South Korea, where the stock benchmark swung through a seven-percentage-point range before ending higher. BBG
The US has no immediate plans to strike Iran, Donald Trump has said, as the president played down speculation that he was preparing to escalate his conflict with the Islamic republic after the midterm elections. FT
Tehran and Washington are reviewing fresh proposals from mediators on how to resolve their differences and avoid a return to all-out war, according to a diplomat briefed on the matter, after limited US airstrikes. BBG
Chinese AI firms expect to receive only around 1% of about $70 billion worth of Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 chips over the next four months, people familiar said. BBG
Oracle (ORCL) cancels USD 7bln Tencent (700 HK) AI deal under Trump pressure: FT
Euro-area inflation quickened to 4% in October, double the ECB’s target and the highest since September 2023. BBG
Euro-area pay growth is poised to slow sharply in the third quarter of 2027, encouraging news for the European Central Bank as it battles inflation driven by the Iran war. BBG
Sweden’s Riksbank raised its key rate to 2% from 1.75% and opened the door to another move. Poland’s central bank looks set to keep its rate unchanged at 3.75% as the country’s political standoff raised fresh doubts about the future of Governor Adam Glapinski. BBG
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the US is “asking less” and “offering more” in trade negotiations, as the neighboring nations once again work on a potential deal after a previous round of talks collapsed. BBG
North Korea fired multiple missiles toward its east coast hours after urging the US to drop its “hostile” policy, adding pressure on Trump. BBG
CVS Health is planning to spin off its retail pharmacy business into a separate company. BBG
Meta is making its debut in the euro bond market, joining a burst of borrowing by the world’s biggest technology companies as they race to finance trillions of dollars of investments in artificial intelligence. BBG
White House releases Trump proclamation regarding space and stated that the US is to return to the moon by 2028 under the Trump order. Newsquawk
The S&P 500 has been up a year after every midterm election since 1950, with an average gain of around 15%; on a 3-month basis the SPX has averaged a +5.4% return. JPM (Craig Cohen, Market Intel)

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

US Midterm Elections

In short, Democrats are projected to have flipped both the House and Senate from the Republicans. The trade began as expected, with the USD softer (overnight, DXY -0.6%, G10s firmer across the board, CHF and JPY led) and USTs bid throughout this, weighing on the US 10yr yield by c. 5bps.
Big tech/AI names were initially all hit on this, with those supporting the trade (e.g. energy, components, etc) also suffering; NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOG, etc. Banks (JPM, GS) dented by the regulation narrative, which weighed on crypto-sensitive stocks too, COIN. On the flip side, the Dem. trade is supporting healthcare names (UNH, CNC, HCA) and some retail stocks (WMT, DG).
However, some of the local (PUC/PSC) results were then called Republican in key areas; the most pertinent thus far being Louisiana District 5, which has three Amazon facilities planned, and potentially helped spur the easing of pressure seen in such names in the early hours. Though, the PSC results for Georgia potentially offset this given the data centre exposure in the region.
Democrats flipped key Senate races (Ohio, Texas, South Carolina, Kansas) and are eyeing a potential 54-seat plus Senate majority, meeting the high end of Democratic projections going into the elections. The Kansas and Texas wins are the most historic, with Democrats last winning a Senate race in Kansas in 1932 and in Texas in 1988, while an RCP analyst wrote regarding the Republicans' performance that it was "Easily the worst election for a party since 1974."
US President Trump said he is prepared to work with Democrats and will accept the election result, according to the NYT. In a Truth Social post, he stated that he would have won in a landslide if he were on the ballot, while he thought some candidates would have done better. On Fox, he outlined that veto power is one of the strongest powers he has and that part of the result was Iran, adding that the US was probably not ready for the short-term gasoline consequences of the Iran conflict. Furthermore, he said he could work with the Democrats on many things, such as immigration and will not make cabinet changes.
Iran is, of course, the main risk in the near term, with the focus points around that familiar and centred on the upcoming weekend. For the results, the next major one is Alaska on the Senate. Mississippi is also yet to be called.

APAC stocks were somewhat mixed, with risk assets hit early in the session as participants digested the results from the US Midterm Elections, which pointed to a strong performance by Democrats, as betting markets priced a 99% probability of a Democrat sweep, in which some of the notable victories include North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas senate seats, marking the first Democrat win in the latter state since 1988. ASX 200 declined as the downside was led by the mining, materials and resources sectors, although the losses in the broader market were somewhat cushioned by resilience in defensives and consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 underperformed as tech was pressured on prospects of tighter AI regulation associated with what looks increasingly to be a blue wave following the Midterm Elections, but is well off today's lows. KOSPI suffered amid the tech sell-off, while there were reports of North Korea conducting launches. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp weathered the stock sell-off in the region amid reports that the PBoC steps up stock repurchase and increased holdings and re-lending policies, while Chinese markets are also likely finding some solace as the increased likelihood of a Democrat sweep could restrict Trump tariff policies.

Top Asian News

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said authorities will closely monitor market movements with a high sense of urgency.

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) start Wednesday’s session entirely in the green, with focus being on the US midterms overnight. Focus has been on Novo Nordisk (+4%), after it lifted its sales and profit guidance for the FY to growth of as much as 2%, from a prior forecast of a decline of as much as 6%, helped by optimism over its Wegovy pill. For its new pill, sales beat analyst estimates, with Novo highlighting that it should be available in over 20 markets in 2027. Turning to US equity futures, the ES was down as much as 1.4% overnight but has since reversed, with all futures benchmarks in the green heading into pre-market trade. Very brief pressure was seen at the start of pre-market, but that has since reversed. Post mid-terms, key spaces to watch are: Health Care, Energy and Defence. For Health Care, less cuts to Medicaid are now expected with a possible restoration of ACA subsidies. As a result, UNH gained early doors, but has since reversed to post pre-market losses of c. 0.7%; HCA (+2.4%) holds on to earlier gains. Turning to Energy and Utilities, there is particular focus on Texas, as the Democratic win puts ERCOT power deregulation at risk. FSLR is higher by 9.2% pre-market, with European peers also firmer (Orsted +7%, Vestas +5%). Finally, the prospect of trimmed funding for defence will provide a headwind for US defence names, with LMT lower by 2.9% pre-market, while BAE Systems is slumping over 3.6% given its high exposure to the US.

Top European News

German Engineering Orders (Sep) +14% Y/Y (Domestic Orders +22%, Foreign Orders +11%), (Jul-Sep) +4% Y/Y (Domestic Orders +5%, Foreign Orders +3%); (Jan-Sep) +5% Y/Y (Domestic Orders Unchanged, Foreign Orders +7%), VDMA said.

USD under pressure against all G10 peers. The NZD holds towards the top of the pile, whilst the JPY is only mildly stronger against the Dollar.
Overnight, USD was pressured as initial projections suggested a Democratic sweep, and more so than what market participants had expected, with several states surprisingly swinging from R to D. Heading into the midterm elections, it was widely viewed that a D majority in both House and Senate would be USD-negative, given the lower growth implications, lower yields and added friction in passing policy. This price action played out largely overnight, with significant selling pressure in the Dollar index, taking it to a session trough of 101.24 (vs 101.73 peak).
Whilst the USD weakness has continued into the European morning, G10 peers flipped from displaying a risk-off tone, to a risk-on one. The Kiwi outperforms vs peers, joined closely by the Aussie. A shift which comes after two main points: 1) Republicans winning the Louisiana race, and 2) President Trump sounding fairly conciliatory regarding the D projected victory, indicating openness to work with the opposition. This has perhaps abated some woes surrounding political friction, spurring some risk-on trade. Nonetheless, the USD remains pressured as yields remain lower on the session.
JPY has not been able to benefit quite as much as some of its other G10 peers. USD/JPY currently holds within a 157.38 to 158.74 range, sitting close to intervention territory. As such, markets were met with jawboning via Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, who noted that authorities will closely monitor market movements with a high sense of urgency. Some market participants may also be thinking about the potential loosening of US-Japan relations following the Dems' strong performance. This perhaps will be a longer-term theme, but remains a risk heading into 2027 and 2028, where the presidential elections will come into view.

Central Banks

Riksbank raises its policy rate by 25bps to 2.00%, as expected; If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, it is likely that the policy rate will be raised further in the coming year.
ECB Wage Tracker - Annual, 2026: 2.3% (prev. 2.2%). Quarterly, Q3-2027: 2.4% (1st estimate).
PBoC steps up stock repurchase and increased holdings and re-lending policies, adds application for relending has exceeded CNY 200bln.

Fixed Income

Fixed income was initially bullish as the US midterms pointed to a Democratic sweep, with both the House and Senate projected to have shifted blue. However, this then unwound to a degree, though USTs are back in the green once again.
Specifically, the early-APAC projections showing Democrats flipping multiple major Senate races, including Texas, helped to lift USTs to a 106-30 peak, with gains of 15 ticks or so at best. Then, as Trump expressed an openness to working with the Democrats, some key local (PUC/PSC) results went in favour of Republicans and, more generally, on a broader fading of the initial Dem. reaction, with many commentators describing it as overdone, a pullback was seen, to a 106-18 overnight low but clear of the 106-12+ late-US base. As it stands, USTs are off that base and post gains of a handful of ticks, with geopolitics and the QRA in focus.
As above, market attention is already turning back to the Middle East, given the potential for kinetic action by the US against Iran into/during the weekend. On the docket, we have a handful of data prints and the QRA, which may see an update to the long end and/or 20yr specifically.
Amidst this, EGBs have been directionally in-fitting until the European morning at least. Bunds hit a 122.42 overnight low alongside USTs, before then rebounding modestly to gains of c. 10 ticks. However, while USTs remain bid, Bunds have slipped into the red once more and to a 122.29 session base. The morning’s regional weather data turned colder once again, and the traditional haven narrative may be factoring in, as European equity futures (and since cash bourses) climbed.
Gilts digested most of this at the open. Started the day lower by a handful of ticks, before lifting to an 86.13 peak with gains of about 20 ticks. Since, in line with USTs for the most part. UK specifics light.
Germany sells EUR 1.66bln vs exp. EUR 2bln 2.60% 2041 and 1.25% 2048 Bund.
Meta (META) begins the sale of its EUR-denominated bond offering (six-parter).
Australia sold AUD 400mln in 5% June 2036 bonds, avg. yield 5.075%, b/c 4.19.
HSBC (5 HK) has issued USD 1.75bln of 5.819% fixed/floating rate senior unsecured notes due 2032 and USD 2.5bln of 6.262% fixed/floating rate senior unsecured notes due 2037.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks were initially firmer in early morning trade, but gradually dipped as the session progressed. Focus overnight was on comments via US President Trump, who told the FT there is no immediate plan to strike Iran, alongside the initial Democratic sweep trade, before recovering as that trade faded. WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 94.60-97.15/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 93.59-98.82/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 moves within a USD 101.55-104.96/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 100.80-107.24/bbl range).
Most recently, crude benchmarks have bounced off worst levels after the Iranian leader warned of a broader response if the US repeats its aggression.
Focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for US strikes. The IRGC said four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait and two other vessels were detained, while Tehran's Mayor said the Strait will not reopen until the US fulfils its commitments. CCTV reported that Tehran remains far from reaching an agreement with the US (in line with yesterday's reports), while Trump said "if Iran behaves, then we can sign something up". As a reminder, US Central Command reportedly has a plan to strike Iran as early as Wednesday.
Dutch TTF is firmer within a EUR 91.75-94.50/MWh range, after the IEA warned European gas reserves are at their lowest since 2013.
Spot gold surges to levels above USD 4,000/oz, within a USD 3,920-4,049/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,896-3,971/oz range), as the Democrats' projected sweep of Congress weighs on the USD and US yields, with markets pricing in a greater chance of legislative gridlock and downside risks to growth, while the complex could also be seeing hedging demand ahead of potential US strikes on Iran. Spot silver outperforms within a USD 48.97-51.98/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 48.62-50.87/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are also firmer.
3M LME Copper is flat within a USD 13,832.48-14,084.00/t range (vs yesterday's USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range), having declined overnight as risk assets were hit on the increased prospects of a Democratic sweep and concerns over tighter AI regulation, in turn initially hitting data-centre-driven copper demand. The red metal has since recovered to flat as those concerns eased, with Republican wins in the Louisiana PSC races supporting the data-centre narrative and the Democratic trade fading, while the softer USD also provides some support.
Marubeni (8002 JT) CEO expects the copper market to stay firm over the mid to long term, backed by strong demand from data centres and AI.
Brazil confirms another outbreak of Newcastle Disease at a poultry establishment in Santa Catarina state.
US Weekly Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -5.3mln (exp. +1.9mln), Gasoline +1.4mln (exp. 0.0mln), Distillate -1.2mln (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing +0.5mln.

Geopolitics: Iran

US President Trump said US has no immediate plan to strike Iran, according to FT. Trump suggested he was content with the state of the stand-off with Iran, even as he signalled he was prepared for more war if necessary, while he stated we seem to be getting everything we want. Trump responded "We’re locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it”, when asked about strong hints by Israeli PM Netanyahu that there would be an attack later this week.
Iran's leader warns of a much broader response if the US repeats its aggression, while dismissing expectations of a change in US behaviour following the midterm elections, Fars reports.
IRGC political affairs official said Iran will expel the US from West Asia and the Persian Gulf, Al Alam reported.
IRGC commander adviser said Iran would respond to any US or Israeli attack with a new doctrine and technology, warning that retaliation could extend beyond US bases in countries such as the UAE and Bahrain, NAYA reported. Warns if countries such as the UAE and Bahrain allow US forces to use their bases to attack Iran, Tehran's retaliation would extend beyond those bases.
Iran's Tehran Mayor Zakani said Iran has not sought nuclear weapons, but unconventional threats could prompt a change in the country's nuclear doctrine under the leadership's direction, Fars News reported. The Strait of Hormuz remains under the full control of the IRGC and Iranian military and will not reopen until the US fulfils its commitments, Tasnim reported.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said no nuclear activity or equipment was found inside Pickaxe Mountain during the agency's last inspection and stated that Tehran does not possess a nuclear weapon, Iran-linked Sabereen reported.
Iran describes US President Trump's midterm election defeat as another sign of Iran's victory in the war, while stating that Tehran's policies will remain unchanged regardless of which US party holds power, IRGC Telegram posted.
Iran is reportedly adopting guerrilla tactics, including rocket-propelled grenades and limpet mines, in an effort to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, according to WSJ.
Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran won't bow to coercion or imposed demands, according to Press TV.
IRGC said four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz and that two other vessels were detained.
Satellite images show a fire in the Strait of Hormuz; a ship appears to have been targeted.
A senior Iranian official said yesterday Tehran remains far from reaching an agreement with the US to end the conflict, despite mediation efforts, CCTV reported citing unnamed sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

Russia hits power stations in Ukraine's Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions.

Geopolitics: Other

Saudi Civil Defence said a warning has been issued by the National Early Warning Platform in Najran.
Yemeni armed forces reportedly target sites in southern Saudi Arabia, Sabereen reported.
US President Trump said he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about money and support, while Trump adds that Netanyahu agrees with him.
South Korean military said North Korea fired multiple missiles from the Sondok area.
South Korea military said North Korea fires an unidentified projectile.

US Event Calendar

7:00am: Oct 30 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.4%
8:15am: Oct ADP Employment Change, est. 67k, prior 90k
8:30am: Sep Trade Balance, est. -$107.9b, prior -$105.6b
8:30am: US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
9:45am: Oct F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 57.9, prior 57.9
9:45am: Oct F S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 57.3, prior 57.6
10:00am: Oct ISM Services Index, est. 54.8, prior 54.9
11:30am: US to sell $75 billion of 17-week bills

Central Bank Speakers

No Fed speakers scheduled

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The big news this morning is that the Democrats have made significant gains in the midterm elections, with multiple news organisations projecting they’ll win both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The gains have been substantial, and the AP have already projected they’ll pick up Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Texas from the Republicans. Moreover, the New York Times needle is now pointing to a 55-45 Democratic majority in the Senate when all is done, which if realised would leave them with 8 gains. In fact, the last time the Democrats had a Senate majority that big was after the 2012 election, when Barack Obama won a second term.

Although votes are still being counted, this means that when the new Congress convenes in January, it will be the first time the Democrats have controlled both chambers since the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency. In addition, it’s the first time in either of the two Trump administrations that the Democrats have both the House and the Senate, as in Trump’s first term, the Republicans still had a Senate majority after the 2018 midterms. So this will add to the constraints on the Trump administration.

Most obviously, a major constraint is that all legislation must be passed by a majority in both chambers of Congress, so any new laws will require at least some Democratic support. That includes spending packages to prevent a government shutdown, as well as any increases in the debt ceiling. Remember as well that the Senate is the chamber that votes to confirm new appointments, including for the Cabinet, Supreme Court Justices, and Fed Governors. So this will be the first time in either of Trump’s terms that Democrats could block appointments to key positions. Nevertheless, Trump still retains a veto over legislation, so even if Democratic majorities passed something through both chambers, Trump’s veto could only be overridden if two-thirds of both chambers agreed.

In terms of the results so far, the direction of travel became clear early in the night. For instance, AP have said the Democrats have already made 22 pickups in the House so far, well above the 3 gains required to take the majority. That currently leaves them on 205-123 on the AP count, with 218 needed for the majority. So even though they haven’t reached the majority line yet, multiple news networks are already projecting a Democratic win in the House, including CNN and NBC. Then in the Senate, the 6 Democratic gains so far mean they’re already over the majority line, with the AP count currently at 52-41. And elsewhere, the Democrats have also made gains in the Governor’s races, with AP projecting Democratic pickups in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas.

When it comes to the market reaction, there’s been a clear selloff in US equity futures, led by the tech sector. In part, that reflects investor expectations that Democratic control in Congress might lead to tougher regulation on AI, and futures on the S&P 500 are down –0.42% this morning, whilst those on the NASDAQ 100 are down -0.49%. However, S&P futures were down over -1% earlier, so they’ve pared back a decent chunk of those earlier losses, and there’s been a rally for US Treasuries as well, given that divided government has generally made it harder for fiscal stimulus to be passed. So that’s eased concerns on the fiscal trajectory a bit, and the 2yr Treasury yield is down -3.5bps overnight to 4.60%, whilst the 10yr yield is down -2.9bps to 4.94%. Investors are also pricing in a more dovish path for the Fed too, with the amount of rate hikes priced by the June 2027 meeting down -3.3bps this morning to 55bps. So that’s pushed the dollar index down -0.40% overnight as well.

In Asia, there’s been a similar pattern overnight, with several of the most tech-exposed indices posting sharp losses, although they’ve recovered from earlier in the session. Nevertheless, Japan’s Nikkei is currently down -2.09% this morning, whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.03%) is now basically flat, but was down more than -4% at the lows earlier. Meanwhile other indices have posted gains, including the Hang Seng (+0.89%), the CSI 300 (+1.02%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.83%).

Before we knew about the midterm results, a bit more positivity crept back into markets yesterday. Most notably, oil prices continued to fall after Iran’s President Pezeshkian said that the country’s Supreme Leader had granted “additional authority”, which would allow talks on issues previously considered “non-negotiable”. Moreover, Reuters also reported that Qatari mediators expected feedback from the US and Iran on a new proposal to advance talks within 36 hours. So that added to the optimism about some kind of diplomatic resolution, and Brent crude oil prices fell -1.12% over the session to $103.60/bbl. And there was a decent decline in European natural gas too, which came down another -3.44% to €91.60/MWh. However, there were still some signs of caution, and oil prices picked up from the lows after the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said on X that “The US response to Iran’s rights and demands was not satisfactory”. And then soon after, Iranian state TV cited a spokesman for Iran’s negotiating team, who said that no new developments had been reached on an agreement.

That backdrop helped US equities to finally stage a recovery, with the S&P 500 (+0.36%) picking up after 3 consecutive declines. That was led by the tech sector, with the NASDAQ (+0.83%) posting an even bigger advance, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (+2.63%) rebounded after falling by -11.6% over the previous three sessions. And to help matters further, the latest data pointed to ongoing resilience around the US economy. For instance, the JOLTS report showed job openings rising to a 4-month high of 7.523m in September (vs. 7.164m expected). Meanwhile, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their job hit a 15-month high of 2.1%, and separate data on factory orders showed growth of +1.8% in September (vs. +1.2% expected).

With that hawkish data in hand, that cemented investor confidence that the Fed would deliver another rate hike at their next meeting in December. Indeed, futures raised the probability of a hike from 74% to 78% by the close yesterday. And in turn, that hawkish momentum and risk-on sentiment helped to push up Treasury yields as well. So the 2yr yield (+3.6bps) was up to 4.63%, whilst the 10yr yield (+5.1bps) rose to 4.96%.

Over in Europe, investors also became more confident that the ECB would hike rates in December, with market pricing for a hike next month up from 83% to 89% by the close. That followed comments from the ECB’s Radev, who said that “If incoming data confirm inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent, further rate increases may be necessary”. This was also echoed by Nagel, who said “there is likely no way around an interest-rate hike unless the inflation outlook improves significantly” and Kocher was suggested that a December hike was likely if the situation does not change. So that supported investor conviction that the ECB would still deliver a December hike, and yields on 10yr bunds (+3.8bps), OATs (+5.1bps) and BTPs (+3.8bps) all moved higher. However, European equities underperformed their US counterparts, largely as they caught up to the late selloff in the US session the previous day, with the STOXX 600 closing -0.58% lower. And this morning, European equity futures are also trading lower, with those on the STOXX 600 down another -0.66%.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for October, and in the US there’s the ISM services index for October, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October, and the trade balance for September. Otherwise, we’ll get the final October services and composite PMIs from multiple countries. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane and Moulin. Finally, earnings releases include Qualcomm, McDonald’s and Uber.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 07:28

Polar Vortex Threatens Europe As One Cold Blast Could Wipe Out October's Gas Storage Gains

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:10:00 +0000

Polar Vortex Threatens Europe As One Cold Blast Could Wipe Out October's Gas Storage Gains

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows signs of an early disruption of the Arctic polar vortex that could send cold air into Northwest Europe as the energy-stricken continent faces a very thin supply buffer before the Northern Hemisphere winter gathers pace.

We are officially in uncharted territory.
The Polar Vortex is currently the weakest it’s ever been for the date and is headed for the crucial 0 line over the next day or so. If it gets to a value of 0 or lower, it will officially be the earliest Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event… pic.twitter.com/3MWTijfodx
— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) November 3, 2026

One week ago, we reported that signs of a potentially record-early sudden stratospheric warming were developing and that a split in the vortex could send Arctic air into the northern US and/or parts of Europe within weeks.

Knockout blow.

An absolutely textbook heat flux punch upwards from the troposphere into the stratosphere triggering a collapse of the stratospheric vortex and a reversal of westerlies to easterlies, a major and likely record early major sudden stratospheric warming 🤜🏻 pic.twitter.com/Xtohsr6SmN
— Met4Cast - UK Weather (@Met4CastUK) November 2, 2026

BloombergNEF reports that one week of Arctic air could send heating demand soaring in Europe and wipe out any natural gas storage gains made during October's mild weather.

If temperatures average 5C below the 10-year normal in the first week of Decemeber, heating demand across Northwest Europe, Italy, Spain and Austria would soar by about 1.1 billion cubic meters.

Here's more from the report:

A week of materially colder weather could quickly erode Europe's already thin gas storage buffer.
If temperatures across Europe averaged 5°C below the 10-year normal over Dec. 2-8, heating demand across the BNEF Europe Perimeter (Northwest Europe, Italy, Spain and Austria) would rise by around 1.1 billion cubic meters.
And if that additional demand were met entirely from storage, end-March inventories would fall to about 15.5% full, from around 17% under average weather. That would leave stocks only around half a percentage point above BNEF's estimated minimum, the end-March level below which Europe would begin drawing on gas assumed to be held as strategic reserves rather than normal commercial inventories.
October's mild weather helped Europe build a larger-than-expected cushion heading into winter. Lower heating demand allowed injections to continue later into the season, leaving storage additions around 1 Bcm above the 2021-25 October average.

Europe is entering the cold period with NatGas inventories at their lowest seasonal level since the 2022 energy crisis, at around 74% of capacity. This means the buffers that shield the continent from demand shocks will draw down to dangerously low levels by March.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released a new report warning of just that, citing a "reduced buffer against supply disruptions" and forecasting that NatGas storage levels on the continent could drop below 10% by late March.

"This would leave the European market particularly exposed to events, whether additional cold snaps, technical outages or other supply disruptions, since the rate at which gas can be withdrawn from storage sites tends to decline once fill levels fall below 30% of working capacity," the IEA wrote in the report.

As we noted, energy markets in the US and Europe differ starkly: EU NatGas futures trade at roughly 11 times US NatGas prices.

Europe is just a couple of cold snaps away from a deepening energy crisis that will keep EU NatGas prices elevated well into next spring.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 07:10

Scott Galloway's Unhinged Tirade Against Elon Musk Takes A Very Dark Turn...

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:35:00 +0000

Scott Galloway's Unhinged Tirade Against Elon Musk Takes A Very Dark Turn...

Marketing professor and anti-MAGA podcaster Scott Galloway launched an unhinged attack on Elon Musk, branding the billionaire a "traitor to the West" before invoking the infamous Rosenberg espionage case, which ended with the execution of two Americans during the Cold War.

Galloway spewed the incendiary comments during a discussion with former technology journalist Kara Swisher about Silicon Valley's growing influence, arguing that the United States' obsession with billionaire innovators has created a dangerous double standard.

However, what began as a familiar critique of Silicon Valley's billionaire class quickly took a darker turn. Galloway compared Musk to aviation pioneer Charles Lindbergh, whose sympathies toward Nazi Germany before America's entry into World War II remain a controversial chapter in U.S. history. Galloway then invoked Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, the American couple executed in 1953 after being convicted of conspiracy to commit espionage for the Soviet Union.

"We lined up the Rosenbergs against a wall," Galloway said, before insisting Musk should be held to the same standards as other traitors.

Galloway stopped short of explicitly calling for Musk's execution, but bringing up two spies who were put to death while calling him a traitor was a striking comparison.

Here are Galloway's remarks in full:

Okay, so I'll go fail first. I think the idolatry of innovators has gotten so out of control. I was talking to the secretary before this. If you go up and down the West Coast, you're going to see literally companies. The West Coast is littered with multi-trillion dollar companies, and you get to the Canadian border, it stops. You get to the Mexican border, it stops. And yet these individuals are quick to credit their grit and their character for their success and blame the government for their failures.
And what is so disappointing, that's not my fail, because if you tell a 30-year-old male who's Jesus Christ, he's inclined to believe you. The fail is that we have begun believing through this ridiculous, unhealthy, and dangerous idolatry of innovators that they get to live by an entirely different standard. Elon Musk is a traitor to the West.
[crowd applause]
In the 30s, we had this incredible hero, Charles Lindbergh, an innovator, and he felt that we should be on the side of Germany. And a lot of people felt that way. We had spent tremendous capital, a lot of loss of young men in World War I, and we thought, you can understand, we don't want to go back, right? And his view was we should partner with Germany and Hitler.
What if, and this could have very easily happened, he was a hero. What if he'd raised the capital to buy Boeing? He probably could have done it. And then when we lent B-17s to run bombing runs over Germany to the RAF, what if he had figured out a guidance for a flight system and then mid-1940, before we were involved in the war, decided to throttle back those guidance systems and the blitzkrieg in London got worse, and more homes and more civilians were destroyed and killed respectively. What would we have done to Charles Lindbergh?
But it's uncomfortable and weird because we've decided someone who's a trillionaire, makes a great EV and can land a rocket on scissors is held to a different standard. We lined up the Rosenbergs against a wall. This is a traitor to the West, and you should be held to the same standards as every other traitor in the West.

The Rosenbergs were convicted in 1951 of conspiring to commit espionage for the Soviet Union and executed at New York's Sing Sing prison two years later. Their case remains one of the most controversial espionage prosecutions in American history, particularly because of the severity of the punishment.

Galloway's remarks come amid an increasingly hostile climate surrounding Musk, with the billionaire facing criticism over his political activities and his role in the Trump administration.

A shadowy international group calling itself The Capytistas is preparing to expose the private homes of some of America's wealthiest individuals in a new campaign, according to a dossier viewed by WIRED.

The group's strategy is simple: Turn the private residences of the ultrawealthy into public information, potentially exposing properties their owners have gone to considerable lengths to keep out of the spotlight.

The Capytistas claims to have secured more than $1.2 million in financial backing and intends to publish over 150 residential addresses, many of which it says have never been publicly disclosed.

Elon Musk, his brother Kimbal, and members of Tesla's board of directors are among the group's initial targets. Its dossier reportedly contains 32 addresses associated with Musk and Tesla leadership.

Beginning in January 2025, Tesla dealerships, vehicles, and charging stations became targets of arson, firebombings, gunfire, and vandalism across the country.

In March 2025, then-Attorney General Pam Bondi announced federal charges against three suspects accused of attacking Tesla properties with Molotov cocktails, describing the violence as domestic terrorism.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 06:35

'Time Off' Requests Surge Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Release

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:30:00 +0000

'Time Off' Requests Surge Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Release

Grand Theft Auto VI's upcoming release is just over two weeks away, and for millions of gamers, November 19 is set to become an unofficial holiday.

Personal finance publication Money cites new data from HR software company BambooHR showing that time-off requests are 9% to 17% higher than for a typical third Thursday in November. The increase in time-off requests coincides with the release of GTA VI.

BambooHR did not identify the age group requesting the most time off, but millennials were teenagers when GTA V was released in 2013, more than 13 years ago. For many gamers, it's been a very long wait.

BREAKING: GTA 6 file size is 210GB https://t.co/ViFjd6hbYW
— GTA 6 Intel (@GTA6Intel) October 27, 2026

GTA VI has attracted over 5.2 million preorders, according to Sensor Tower data. Data from a separate market research firm, Circana, show that demand for Sony's PlayStation 5 consoles has also surged in the US ahead of the GTA VI release.

Money continues:

It's difficult to say with certainty that the highly anticipated video game is the sole reason behind the uptick in time off requests. A BambooHR spokesperson said that while the trend is striking, it could also reflect a larger cultural push toward using time off more freely.
Anecdotally, GTA 6 is playing a clear role.
"I know some people that are going to take weeks off," one user wrote on X, "and I'm one of them."
On Reddit, another person posted in July that when he asked for Nov. 19-20 off, his manager automatically assumed it was for GTA 6. The manager not only approved the request but decided to take those days off, as well.
Some employers are leaning into the excitement. In California, a popular motorsports shop sent out a memo saying that it decided to close on Nov. 19 due to the amount of time off requests it received.

Raymond James interactive entertainment analyst Andrew Marok wrote in a note last week that "the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI is set to be transformational" for Take-Two Interactive, whose wholly owned subsidiary, Rockstar Games, developed the game.

Read the report here.

However, Take-Two Interactive shares are locked in a bear market as of Tuesday's close, down about 21.4% year-to-date.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 06:30

Trump Deflects Blame For Blue Wave: Dems Complete Election Sweep, Control Texas, El-Sayed Wins MI

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:30:00 +0000

Trump Deflects Blame For Blue Wave: Dems Complete Election Sweep, Control Texas, El-Sayed Wins MI

Aaaand it's gone... Blue Sweep Tsunami it is...

0630ET: Senate: 54D - 44R ~~ House: 228D - 139R ~~ Governor: 28D - 20R (Abbott lost TX)

DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE, Flip 7 States: NC (Tillis seat lost), SC (Darline Graham lost), TX (Paxton lost), KS (Marshall lost), OH (Husted lost), IA (Hinson lost), ME (Collins lost)

DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE; NBC estimates that Democrats will take 255 House seats to 180 for Republicans.

As a reminder, President Trump posted on his TruthSocial this morning that "I think Midterm results will be better than you think."

That didn't age well...

Democrats warned the Trump admin to brace for investigations. Robert Garcia, in line to lead the House Oversight Committee, issued a two-word statement: “Lawyer up.”

After an initial drubbing on the loss of Texas - and fears ovewr AI/Data-Center backlash - futures have staged a dramatic come back

Key headlines

2110ET *DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE, DDHQ PROJECTS
2220ET *DEMOCRAT TALARICO TO BE FIRST TEXAS DEMOCRAT TO WIN US SENATE SINCE 1988
2230ET *DEMOCRAT ACTON WINS OHIO GOVERNOR RACE, DDHQ PROJECTS (Vivek Ramaswamy lost)
2240ET *TRUMP: I WASN’T ON BALLOT
2250ET *DEMOCRAT HAMILTON WINS KANSAS SENATE RACE TO BE FIRST DEMOCRATIC US SENATOR SINCE 1932
2300ET *NY REPUBLICAN MIKE LAWLER CONCEDES IN HOUSE RACE
2300ET *DEMOCRAT BECERRA WINS CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR RACE, AP PROJECTS
2300Et *DEMOCRAT BROWN WINS OHIO SENATE RACE, CNN PROJECTS (crypto skeptic who previously chaired the Senate Banking Committee)
2305ET *DEMOCRAT HINOJOSA WINS TEXAS GOVERNOR RACE (Abbot lost), CNN PROJECTS, FIRST ELECTED TEXAS DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR SINCE 1990
2320ET ...and it's over - the sweep is complete: *DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE, DDHQ PROJECTS
2330ET *NBC ESTIMATES DEMOCRATS TO TAKE 255 HOUSE SEATS, 180 GOP SEATS
0115ET *DEMOCRAT EL-SAYED WINS MICHIGAN SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTS

The market does not like the way this was going (bonds are bid, the dollar is dumping, and crypto is falling)...

As a reminder, a Democratic sweep could intensify scrutiny of data-center spending, power costs, and AI regulation - the key risk is that the election becomes another catalyst for de-risking an already crowded theme...

Of course, it's not just tech, as the potential for more gridlock and negotiation/bargaining around the debt ceiling and fiscal policy is weighing on the dollar.

*****

Several counties reported voting system problems, among other issues, during today's voting...

Westchester County, NY: Countywide scanner problem (ballots not going through). Ballots put in emergency bags for later scanning. Officials (including AG Letitia James) said votes would still count and urged people to vote.
Broward County, FL: Brief technical delays (10–15 minutes) at some sites; a couple of polling locations moved due to flooding.
Fulton County, GA: Two scanners failed during early voting (affecting ~1,069 ballots); officials planned to rescan them properly.

Officials in the affected areas largely reassured voters that ballots would be secured and counted.

Watch results live here:

Results:

Prediction Pulse

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House

*DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE, DDHQ PROJECTS
NBC estimates that Democrats will take 255 House seats to 180 for Republicans.

Senate

*DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE, DDHQ PROJECTS
NBC estimates that Democrats will have 51 Senate seats.

Dem Flips:

COOPER WINS NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE, AP PROJECTS (Wins Thom Thillis (ret.) seat)
ANDREWS WINS SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTS (Wins over Darline Graham)
TALARICO WINS TEXAS SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTS, (Wins over Ken Paxton) FIRST TEXAS DEMOCRAT TO WIN US SENATE SINCE 1988
HAMILTON WINS KANSAS SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTS, FIRST DEMOCRATIC US SENATOR SINCE 1932
BROWN WINS OHIO SENATE RACE, CNN PROJECTS (Wins over Husted)
TUREK WINS IOWA SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTS (Wins over Hinson)

As we detailed earlier, the House is done. Or at least the market thinks so.

Going into tonight, Polymarket traders give Democrats a 96% chance of taking the House and 74% for the Senate, the highest Democratic Senate odds since the market opened, and as of 7:17am ET this morning the Democratic sweep contract was trading at 77%.

Which is why Goldman, in its "Midterms Preview" email this morning (available to pro subs), says the only part of tonight that can really surprise anyone is the upper chamber:

A Democratic House looks largely priced, with the Senate representing the main source of election related surprise. With sentiment, positioning and leverage already significantly lower following recent derisking, the bigger question for markets may be whether the election acts as a clearing event and supports a broader rerisking in equities.

In other words, everyone is watching the House count, and the money is riding on the Senate. Regular readers know we've been tracking the blue-wave odds since they were a coin flip, from our warning back in May that electric bills could be the 2026 election shocker to JPMorgan's "Democrat Factor" soaring 20% as Wall Street priced a sweep. Below is everything you need for tonight: the math, the clock, the polling trap and what each outcome means for markets.

The Math: Four Seats, Seven Coin Flips

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four; a gain of three produces a 50-50 chamber, which stays Republican thanks to JD Vance's tie-breaking vote. That means Democrats have to hold Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, and then flip four of the GOP-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska and South Carolina.

Cook Political Report rates seven races as pure toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas, with Georgia and North Carolina leaning Democratic. The final New York Times/Siena polls had Democrats leading in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, holding an edge in Alaska and effectively tied in Iowa, which on paper is a comfortable majority.

Here is how that looks in Goldman's chart of polling margins against market-implied odds, from the bank's chief US political economist Alec Phillips (chart source GS GIR, Kalshi):

Three things jump out.

Democrats lead in every Republican-held race to the left of the line, but outside of North Carolina, none of those leads is bigger than about 3 points.
Maine, Kansas and Iowa sit right on top of the tie line.
And the market is giving Democrats more credit in Texas and Alaska than their polling margins alone would justify.

Which brings us to the problem.

Why The Polls May Be Flattering Democrats (Again)

Goldman's Phillips and Abhay Duggirala have been waving this flag for weeks. In Republican-leaning states, GOP Senate candidates have beaten their final polling margins by an average of 3 points since 2002, and in competitive races over that stretch, candidates leading by 2.5 points or less won only 60% of the time. Among Republican-held seats, Democrats currently lead by more than that 3-point cushion only in North Carolina.

The desk's translation this morning:

The Senate remains much closer, however, with recent election cycles showing polling errors have tended to underestimate Republican performance in Republican leaning states. As a result, the larger market reaction may come from a divided Congress outcome, which appears less fully reflected in current pricing.

The polls aren't the only problem. As we noted last month, Phillips found that in the five previous midterms going back to 2002, prediction markets "have tended to overstate the challenging party's sweep odds at this point in the cycle." Apply the historical fade to today's 75% and a sweep is still the favorite, just by a lot less than the Kalshi billboards in New York suggests.

Put differently, the House is a lock, the Senate is (roughly) a 60/40 dressed up as a 75/25. Which makes the order in which the states report tonight unusually important.

The Clock: What Closes When (All Times ET)

Polls close in waves from 6pm to 1am Eastern. Here is where each key Senate race sits on the clock, against the latest odds:

6:00pm - Indiana, Kentucky (most of each). No marquee statewide races, but Decision Desk HQ flags Hamilton County, IN (Victoria Spartz's IN-5, which Trump won 52-46) as an early read on suburban swing.
7:00pm - Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, most of Florida and New Hampshire. Democrats are clearly favored to hold Georgia and New Hampshire. The sleeper is South Carolina, where appointed Sen. Darline Graham is only a slight favorite over Democrat Annie Andrews (Kalshi: 67/33), and who joked she'll "choke Lindsey" in heaven for leaving her in a tied race. Florida counts fastest of any state; watch Osceola County for the Latino swing. VA-2 is a must-win House seat for Democrats.
7:30pm - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia. Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley in NC is Democrats' likeliest flip (Cabarrus County near 50-50 means a good night for Cooper). Ohio is the first real toss-up of the night: Sherrod Brown vs. appointed Sen. Jon Husted (Brown 71% on Kalshi), plus the Ramaswamy vs. Acton governor's race. If Brown wins, the Senate path opens; if he loses early, the 75% sweep odds will not survive the hour.
8:00pm - Maine, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, rest of Florida and New Hampshire, most of Texas, Kansas and Michigan. Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson in Maine (Jackson 73%), but Maine is about the slowest-counting state in the country and may need a ranked-choice runoff (more below). House battlegrounds in PA (including Fitzpatrick's PA-1) and NJ-7. In Texas, keep an eye on Collin County: a 50-50 or bluer result is "probably a necessary condition" for a Democrat to carry the state, per DDHQ.
9:00pm - The big hour: Texas, Michigan, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska finish; New York, Minnesota, Arizona and Wisconsin close. Talarico vs. Paxton (Talarico 74%, the most traded race of the cycle), El-Sayed vs. Rogers in Michigan (El-Sayed ~78%, recovering after Democrat Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers on Sunday), Hamilton vs. Marshall in Kansas (Hamilton 63%, up 22 points in a week), Turek vs. Hinson in Iowa (52/48, the true coin flip), and independent Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Dubuque County, IA is the tell for white working-class voters. By roughly 10pm, we should know whether Democrats have a real path.
10:00pm - Nevada, Montana, Utah. Gov. Joe Lombardo vs. Aaron Ford is a toss-up; MT-1 is an open toss-up House seat.
11:00pm - California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho. Democrats are favored to flip all five GOP-held California seats they targeted in redistricting, but California counts mail ballots received through Nov. 10, so don't expect final House numbers for days.
Midnight/1:00am - Hawaii and Alaska. Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola (and the other Dan Sullivan). The last poll closes in the Aleutians at 1am. The counting may take a lot longer.

Don't Hold Your Breath: Maine, Alaska And The Lawyers

Goldman's FX strategist Stuart Jenkins, in the bank's GS Morning note (available to pro subs), sums up the timing problem:

We should get a sense of the degree of the polling error pretty early on, but it can take days or even weeks, especially on the Senate, to get an official result.

Two of the seats Democrats need are the likeliest to drag:

Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal races, municipalities have two days to report official counts, and per Secretary of State Shenna Bellows the state has historically known the ranked-choice outcome the week after the election. A runoff has to be certified by Dec. 18.
Alaska accepts ballots mailed from outside the US for 15 days after Election Day, and close races there have a long history of taking all 15. On top of that, the DOJ has sued to block certification if Peltola wins while "decoy" candidate Daniel J. Sullivan remains on the ballot, and as Jonathan Turley wrote in "Alaska's Decoy Scandal Brings Back The Usual Suspects", "this scandal will not end on Tuesday."

So if the Senate comes down to 50 seats plus Alaska, Wall Street could be trading a binary outcome against a federal lawsuit into Thanksgiving. Nothing says "clearing event" like a recount in the Kenai Peninsula.

Meanwhile Goldman's Rich Privorotsky has a simpler cheat sheet:

The clearing of the political event should be important. The S&P has been higher in the 12 months following all 19 midterms since 1950 ... no guarantees but gridlock has generally been seen as supportive for equities, although AI and data center restrictions remain an important risk to watch... The first hurdle is avoiding an extreme midterm outcome … Texas will be important to watch.

Texas matters twice: the Senate seat, and a governor's race where, as we detailed earlier today in "These Are The States Where Tuesday's Midterms Can Pull The Plug On Data Centers", Democrat Gina Hinojosa wants an emergency moratorium on a 474 GW interconnection queue.

What Markets Are Pricing: Gridlock Good, Sweep... Less So

The consensus playbook, laid out in "Wall Street's Midterm Cheat Sheet" yesterday, comes from JPMorgan's Market Intel desk: a 66% Blue Wave sees the S&P anywhere from down 25bp to up 50bp, a 26% split Congress sends it up 0.5% to 1%, and a 7% Red Wave gets +1% to +1.25%. Translation: the likeliest outcome is the worst one for stocks, though nobody expects a crash on the night. Not everyone is that relaxed: BofA's Michael Hartnett, as we noted last month, sees a Democratic sweep as "big risk-off", with stocks skidding more than 10%, and we tweeted his sweep-odds chart on Sunday.

JPMorgan's Midterm scenario cheat sheet https://t.co/MLOhixqsnX pic.twitter.com/RzigN4PX2x
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2026

The bond view is more muted. Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez-Liechti estimates a sweep adds about 2bps to 10-year yields (4.91% this morning) while a split Congress takes off about 3bps, but warns against "chasing" the gridlock-means-austerity narrative:

Trump's willingness to make deals could still see higher defense spending alongside some dilution of planned Medicaid cuts, leaving the underlying fiscal trajectory little changed.

Rate-insensitive maybe... but not stupid. Goldman agrees on tariffs at least: any Democratic rollbacks on Canada would be more than offset by new White House tariffs, for a net ~2ppt increase in the effective tariff rate after the election. And the first real fight is the Dec. 11 funding deadline, not AI.

For those who want to trade it, Goldman's baskets team's top sweep idea, which we laid out on Sunday, is long ACA beneficiaries (GSHLCACA), which has tracked the Kalshi sweep odds almost tick-for-tick since summer... until the last two weeks, when the basket rolled over even as the odds kept climbing (chart source Bloomberg, GS):

Either the basket knows something the prediction markets don't, or it's a cheap entry. Our money is on the former.

As for the longer view, JPM is as bullish as ever:

JPM is bullish on midterms: "SPX has been up a year after every midterm election since 1950 with an average gain of around 15%. The worst one-year forward return came after the 1986 midterms but this, of course, had more to do with the 1987 crash rather than anything going on in...
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 2, 2026

The Night Turns On Texas At 9pm... Or Maybe On Alaska In Two Weeks

Goldman's desk puts the real question for markets simply: whether tonight "acts as a clearing event and supports a broader rerisking in equities." With sentiment, positioning and leverage already washed out after last week's tech rout, it might, if the result is clean.

We're not so sure it will be. The House is a lock. But the Senate majority runs through four GOP-held states where Democrats lead by less than the 3 points Republicans have historically gained on their final polls, two states that count for days or weeks, and one that comes with its own federal lawsuit. So our take: the Democratic sweep is still the most likely single outcome, but the 75% price tag is too rich, and the likeliest surprise is a 50-50 or 51-49 Senate that nobody can call until Alaska finishes counting. The prediction markets have long since made up their minds:

Prediction markets have seen enough
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 30, 2026

Then again, prediction markets were also pretty sure about the last red wave. We'll be updating this post through the night; first stop, Ohio at 7:30pm.

Much more in Goldman's "Midterms Preview" as well as Alec Phillips' midterm preview, all available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 06:30

The UK Is Fast-Tracking Permanent Residency For An Army Of Migrants

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 10:20:00 +0000

The UK Is Fast-Tracking Permanent Residency For An Army Of Migrants

It's not quite citizenship, but it's close enough. The UK offers a number of loopholes or "fast tracks" to permanent residency for third world migrants, and one of those loopholes is "Indefinite Leave to Remain" (ILR), also known as permanent settlement.

Settlement status allows migrants to stay in the UK essentially for the rest of their lives, with unrestricted access to the labor market, access to health and welfare benefits, and the ability to leave and reenter the country any time they wish. It also gives them the ability to bring their families to live in the UK. They enjoy many of the advantages of citizens, except they don't get to vote and their children do not automatically become citizens.

Many critics of the system argue that once these migrants become entrenched, it is impossible to legally deport them. They also argue that "settlement" is a progressive government agenda to provide to mass citizenship for millions of migrants in the near future.

At bottom, ILR is a way for left-wing leaders to import masses of migrants while pretending as if this is not true immigration.

A debate has been raging over more strict rules for who qualifies for settlement, but the UK government's obsession with multiculturalism makes any serious immigration reform difficult. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has announced final details of the government’s reforms to permanent settlement rules, and she notes that there will be special allowances for most migrants working in social care.

🚨 BREAKING: Shabana Mahmood confirms most social care migrants will now be exempt from waiting 15 years to settle in Britain https://t.co/sDtHJKZIEb
— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) November 2, 2026

Under the original reforms, all migrants would have to wait 10-15 years for access to permanent settlement, but sweeping exceptions are being made for social service and healthcare workers, giving them a 5-year path.

What this means is, around 300,000 migrants and their families will be given full access to the UK along with permanent residency as long as they work in designated healthcare fields. The Home Office estimates 1.9 million additional migrants will settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 under the new rules (though other figures suggest the number will be closer to 2.2 million).

Keep in mind, there are currently around 1.3 million UK nationals who are unemployed in 2026 unemployed. Rather than giving these people a pathway to jobs in healthcare, the government has chosen to import third worlders instead.

Critics of the plan assert that the government is trying to make future deportations more difficult by expediting settlement status for millions before national elections in 2029, and perhaps making it possible for the migrants to participate in elections. Conservatives are expected to dominate unless the current leadership can find a way to dilute the vote. They have already lowered the voting age to 16-years-old by 2029.

The pandemic was used as an excuse for rapid immigration of "healthcare workers" from other countries under the claim that there were shortages. Being that Covid turned out to be a minimal threat, these workers are largely unnecessary. However, they have still been widely glorified in popular media and state propaganda as "saviors' of the country.

Furthermore, there is an issue which the UK government rarely acknowledges: Fake degrees, fake qualifications and fraud testing for candidate who apply for work in healthcare.

In 2023 the Nursing and Midwifery Council and its test provider identified widespread suspected fraud at the Yunnik Technologies test centre in Ibadan, Nigeria. Data showed anomalous, extremely fast completion times consistent with proxy testing (someone else sitting the exam).

There have been a number of criminal convictions for people who lied about qualifications to obtain nursing roles. One high-profile example is Tanya Nasir, who was jailed in 2024 after fraudulently securing a senior neonatal nurse position using false certificates, exaggerated experience and incorrect qualification dates.

Independent inspections have found cases of forged evidence, certificates of sponsorship issued to non-existent or tiny operations, and licenses granted on false information.

All of these problems could be solved by requiring companies to fill these jobs with UK nationals. Removing the concept of permanent settlement would also eliminate the incentives for migrants to defraud the system. What the UK government has established is a half measure, blocking some migrants from easy residency, but still leaving the door open to millions of others in the name of "healthcare worker shortages".

Again, serious immigration reform in the UK under progressive governments is simply not going to happen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 05:20

Africa Launches Its Own Oil Bank As Western Lenders Retreat

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 09:40:00 +0000

Africa Launches Its Own Oil Bank As Western Lenders Retreat

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice,

Africa now has a bank built to finance the oil and gas projects Western banks and development lenders have dropped under their climate commitments.

Afreximbank and the African Petroleum Producers' Organization (APPO) formally established the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) at its inaugural general meeting in Abuja on October 31. That was more than four years after the two institutions began work on it and some 20 months behind schedule. Abuja beat bids from six countries, including Ghana, Algeria, South Africa and Benin, to host the bank. Its first president is Helmy Ghazi, formerly deputy CEO of HSBC Bank Egypt, and a board drawn from the public sector, private sector and policy institutions will lead it. The AEB's mandate covers the entire energy value chain: exploration and production, transport, processing, refining and distribution, cross-border pipelines and regional refineries, and power generation and transmission.

The bank's $5 billion in authorized capital is a ceiling. About $500 million has been mobilized so far, including $222 million from Afreximbank and a Nigerian contribution reported at between $100 million and $200 million. The AEB aims to mobilize up to $10 billion in financing in its first operational phase and plans to fund at least three projects in 2027, starting with regional refineries and pipelines. Its founders want to cut Africa's dependence on imported petroleum products, expand intra-African energy trade, and finance "a just energy transition" in which African governments set the pace. The continent needs an estimated $200 billion in energy investment, and roughly 600 million Africans still lack electricity.

Africa received about $35 billion a year in energy finance from G20 countries and multilateral development banks between 2012 and 2021, according to a Carnegie report. The continent's energy sector still faces a massive financing shortfall that existing channels have struggled to fill.

Private money is flowing into African energy, but it is going to clean power, not oil and gas. Climate tech startups raised about $1.2 billion in 2025, or 38% of all venture funding on the continent, according to Africa: The Big Deal. Development lenders and commercial banks provided much of the money for clean energy: more than two-thirds of 2025 energy funding came as loans and structured facilities. Kenya alone took 29% of Africa's startup funding last year, much of it in climate deals. In September, Nigeria launched a $300 million Distributed Renewable Energy Fund for solar mini-grids and off-grid power, backed by its sovereign wealth fund, Africa50 and SEforALL. The World Bank's Mission 300 program is pushing in the same direction, with infrastructure investors overall putting $47.3 billion into African projects since 2012, and 81% of it went to energy and telecoms, according to the African Private Capital Association (AVCA).

Hardly surprisingly, China continues to dominate Africa's energy and mining sectors, providing much-needed capital through a combination of state policy banks, commercial loans, resource-backed agreements and integrated contractor packages. Through the so-called Angola Model, Chinese institutions provide large-scale loans for energy and infrastructure projects in exchange for long-term access to commodities like oil, copper and critical minerals. The extracted resources are either sold directly to Chinese buyers or used as collateral and direct repayment for the loans.

The Export-Import Bank of China (Eximbank) and the China Development Bank (CDB) have lent $182 billion across Africa since 2000, mostly into the energy sector. Bilateral lending peaked in the 2010s, and the policy banks have since pivoted toward targeted clean energy and critical mineral supply chains. Chinese suppliers also use export credit insurance and vendor financing backed by agencies like Sinosure, so African buyers can purchase equipment and pay over time, giving Chinese firms a competitive edge over traditional grants.

China builds a large share of Africa's power plants without handing African governments the money or keeping a stake in the plants. Over two decades, it has supported about 23 GW of generation capacity across at least 27 sub-Saharan countries, roughly 20% of the region's total. Most of these projects come as a package: a Chinese policy bank lends the money, and a state-backed Chinese firm handles engineering, procurement, and construction. The loan goes straight to the Chinese contractor as each construction milestone is certified and never passes through the host country's treasury. Once the plant is built, the Chinese firm leaves. It does not take an equity stake or run the plant as an independent power producer. The AEB is meant to give African governments what this model doesn't: their own source of capital and their own say over which projects get built.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 04:40

'Why Only Three Rapes In 10 Years?': Russell Brand's Lawyer Turns His Client's Promiscuity Into A Defense

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 09:00:00 +0000

'Why Only Three Rapes In 10 Years?': Russell Brand's Lawyer Turns His Client's Promiscuity Into A Defense

Russell Brand's defense lawyer closed his case on Monday by turning the comedian's sex life into an argument for acquittal, asking jurors at Southwark Crown Court, "Why is it that only three rapes in 10 years?"

Brand, 51, denies three counts of rape, three of sexual assault and one of attempted indecent assault, involving six women and spanning ten years from 1999, STV reported. He has pleaded not guilty to all seven charges, which, as we reported, were first brought against him last year.

His barrister, Ian Winter KC, told the jury that "what matters is he had an immense amount of sex and none of it was unlawful," according to LBC. "Disgusting, distasteful, immoral, who cares?" Winter added. "It's irrelevant to your consideration."

Megyn Kelly walked through the closing on her show on Monday. Reading out Winter's argument, she said he told jurors it is "an extremely curious feature of this case that out of many, many women Brand had sex with from 99 to 2009, the period of the charges, only three say they did not consent."

"He's using Russell's enormous numbers in the sex field now to benefit Russell," Kelly said, before putting the point in her own words: "He had a goal of 5,000, three women, three say he didn't consent out of 5,000. If this guy's running around just randomly raping women orally, vaginally, anally, wouldn't there be more?"

The 5,000 figure was not a count of partners. Brand's former friend Mark Pinheiro told the trial that Brand revealed an ambition to sleep with 5,000 women on a car journey to the Labour Party conference in Bournemouth, ITV reported. On the stand, Brand said he didn't recall the conversation: "No, not a goal." He allowed that "it's entirely possible it's the kind of badinage (banter) I would have engaged in when I was 24."

Winter spent much of his speech on the 2023 Channel 4 Dispatches program, which he said had "poisoned the well of justice." "They all came forward for reasons connected to the TV programme, not for reasons personable to themselves," he said of the six women. He told jurors there was "no evidence he is some sort of psychopath who rapes people and thinks it's normal," and noted that Brand had "left his actual email address - rapists do not leave their address."

The prosecution has painted a different picture. Opening the case on Oct. 14, prosecutor Riel Karmy-Jones KC described Brand as "ruthless, calculated and manipulative," with a desire for sex that was "indiscriminate and voracious."

With closing speeches over, the jury must now reach a unanimous verdict on each of the seven counts, all of which Brand denies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 04:00

How Significant Is It That Three Polish Ambassadors Just Resigned In Protest Of Tusk's Coup?

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 08:20:00 +0000

How Significant Is It That Three Polish Ambassadors Just Resigned In Protest Of Tusk's Coup?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Andrew Korybko's Newsletter,

They importantly provoked Sikorski into the faux pas of comparing Tusk's judicial coup to Poland's martial law period, which can turn even more Poles against him than there already are.

Another Polish Ambassador just resigned in protest of liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk's judicial coup, which is actually a German takeover of Poland by proxy to prepare Europe for war with Russia. Permanent Representative to the UN Professor Krzysztof Szczerski followed in the footsteps of Ambassador to China Jakub Kumoch and Ambassador to Romania Paweł Soloch on Friday. Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski isn't pleased with this development and made his feelings known in an X post.

According to him, "When, in protest against martial law, the [Polish People's Republic's] ambassadors Rurarz and Spasowski resigned, they risked vengeance from the communist regime. Today, [conservative President Karol Nawrocki] is urging ambassadors to abandon their missions and will surely be handsomely rewarded for his heroic deeds. 'History rhymes, first as tragedy, then as farce.'" Some noted how self-discrediting it was for Sikorski to compare Tusk's judicial coup to Poland's martial law period.

Gdy w proteście wobec stanu wojennego rezygnowali ambasadorowie PRL Rurarz i Spasowski ryzykowali tym zemstę komunistycznej władzy.
Dziś do porzucenia misji ambasadorów nakłania @NawrockiKn i za swoje bohaterskie czyny zapewne zostaną sowicie wynagrodzeni.
‚Historia się rymuje,...
— Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 (@sikorskiradek) November 2, 2026

Kumoch replied to Sikorski by writing that "I'm sorry that I have to do this, because I was hoping that this matter was settled. I neither spoke nor communicated with Mr. President before making the decision." Head of Nawrocki's International Policy Office Marcin Przydacz also commented on the issue. In his words, "At a critical moment, as Poland prepares for the G20 summit and Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine, our diplomatic service is losing three highly experienced diplomats". He added that:

Przykro mi, że muszę to zrobić, bo liczyłem, że ta sprawa jest zakończona. Nie rozmawiałem, ani nie komunikowałem się przed podjęciem decyzji z Panem Prezydentem. https://t.co/aAsC5ZjSll
— Jakub Kumoch 古天卫 (@JakubKumoch) November 2, 2026

"All three have explained their decisions by referring to actions taken by the Polish government that they could not accept as Polish citizens and did not wish to endorse by continuing their diplomatic missions. Poland has spent more than three decades building its reputation as a stable, secure and reliable international partner. Today, the world sees images of police deployed at one of Poland's most important constitutional institutions, alongside the resignations of senior Polish diplomats".

Following the resignations of Poland's Ambassadors to China and Romania, Prof. Krzysztof Szczerski, Poland's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, has also submitted his resignation.

All three are senior state officials and experienced diplomats who have served at the...
— Marcin Przydacz (@marcin_przydacz) November 2, 2026

Przydacz then thanked them for their service and said that he respects their "courage to make difficult personal decisions in response to government actions that violate the law and undermine Poland's credibility as a stable international partner." The overall importance of this affair, even if it ends with only those three senior diplomats' resignations without anyone else's, is that it drew the attention of the host countries to the fact that not all members of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs support Tusk's judicial coup.

This is important as regards Kumoch's and Szczerski's resignations since China and the US are much more significant than Romania. To be sure, neither is likely to intervene in any capacity for tipping the balance of this escalating dispute in support of the rule of law, but it also doesn't hurt the constitutionalists' case if they sympathize with them. The primary importance of these resignations is that they provoked Sikorski into the faux pas of comparing Tusk's judicial coup to Poland's martial law period.

The vast majority of Poles opposed the military regime and celebrated Solidarity, so the salience of his faux pas is that it can turn even more Poles against Tusk than there already are, which could lead to his ruling liberal coalition's landslide defeat in fall 2027's next Sejm elections. Till then, pending an unlikely resolution of this standoff between the putschists and the constitutionalists, Poland will remain partially paralyzed at the legislative and judicial levels due to this deadlock at the cost of its national interests.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 03:20

Ukraine's "Most Successful" Missile Is Hitting Almost Nothing

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 07:40:00 +0000

Ukraine's "Most Successful" Missile Is Hitting Almost Nothing

Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile is missing roughly 85% of its targets. Manufactured by Fire Point, the FP-5 - advertised with a 3,000 km range and a 1,150 kg warhead - was hailed by Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine's "most successful" missile when he touted its initial tests. Yet an independent count tracks only about ten confirmed combat uses since August 2025, and analysts warn the true number of launches is likely higher given that failed strikes rarely receive coverage.

The missile's best showing to date was the June 26–27 overnight strike on the Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd, where Ukrainian sources claim three of five launched missiles struck the facility. According to an analysis published by Defence Industry Europe, that marked the first confirmed instance of multiple Flamingos hitting within the target area. In most other documented strikes, at most one missile connected. Across its last four confirmed uses, the weapon hit its target twice but inflicted little significant damage - a result the author attributes to missing the intended aimpoints.

A separate OSINT tally cited by Ukrainska Pravda tracked total launches rising from 23 to 39 over a two-month span, with confirmed hits ticking up from two to six. That translates to a hit rate of roughly 15%, though the Defence Industry Europe author cautions that the sample size remains "too limited for broad conclusions."

Production output is the other major gap. While Fire Point has boasted of building several missiles a day, the analysis notes that "overall production capacity still appears to fall short of the company's stated ambitions" and dismisses claims of three missiles per day as exaggerated. Strike volleys remain small - capping at six missiles in a single attack - and the supply of the repurposed AI-25TL turbofan engines that power the weapon is murky. Fire Point is reportedly constructing its own engine plant, though its progress remains unknown.

FirePoint CEO Iryna Terekh

Rumors that Fire Point halted production altogether have been disputed. After an edited interview clip sparked claims that the missile was a hoax, CEO Iryna Terekh posted the full exchange on X. Fire Point maintains it is still producing the FP-5 and has no plans to abandon the project, according to Ukranews. The company also disclosed in December that it lost two major production facilities to Russian strikes—though as we previously reported, Zelensky announced Flamingo strikes on the Progress space center in Samara in August.

Then there is the money. In August 2025, the Kyiv Independent reported that Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) had opened a probe into Fire Point to investigate whether it inflated component costs, delivery numbers for its drones, or both. NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office clarified they were not investigating the Flamingo missile itself, according to New Voice of Ukraine. Fire Point acknowledged the inquiry but dismissed it as rumor-driven and unrelated to businessman Timur Mindich. By the end of 2025, NABU had issued no formal suspicions in the case.

Mindich - a former co-owner of the Kvartal 95 studio and a figure in a separate Ukrainian corruption probe—represents another thread. Fire Point co-owner Denys Shtillerman alleged that Mindich demanded a 50% stake in the company, as Komersant reported in December, while Babel reported that Mindich sought to buy half the firm outright. Fire Point maintains the NABU probe has nothing to do with him.

Ultimately, no charges have been filed against Fire Point, and no verified production figures have been made public. What remains on the public record is a missile launched dozens of times with only a handful of confirmed hits, alongside an unresolved ownership dispute.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 02:40

Number Of 'Tolerated' Migrants In Germany Rises To Over 200,000

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 07:00:00 +0000

Number Of 'Tolerated' Migrants In Germany Rises To Over 200,000

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,

The number of migrants living in Germany under temporary tolerated status has risen again after several years of decline, reaching 200,601 at the end of September, according to government figures.

Right-wing groups protest against government immigration policy and demand the deportation of immigrants in Solingen, Germany, on August 26, 2024, after a knife attack at the Solingen festival. (Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

More than 256,000 people were obliged to leave the country at the same point, with the large majority unable to be deported for practical or legal reasons.

People with a "Duldung" - a formal suspension of deportation - remain obliged to leave Germany but cannot currently be removed, for example because of missing travel documents, family ties, illness, or other obstacles. The status is always temporary and can be extended.

At the end of 2025, 190,974 of 232,067 people obliged to leave held such status. By the end of 2022 the figure had been about 248,000. Roughly 45,000 people received tolerated status for the first time in 2026, including about 13,460 minors. Only 402 people were recorded with a training-related "tolerated status" and 17 with an employment-related one, according to Welt newspaper.

The earlier drop was linked in part to the Opportunity Residence Law introduced by the previous coalition, which allowed some long-term residents with tolerated status a path toward more secure residence under conditions including self-sufficiency and language skills. That pathway has now expired for many, and lower recognition rates in asylum procedures have also been cited as contributing factors to the renewed rise.

CDU interior policy spokesman Alexander Throm has criticized the high share of tolerated cases.

"That four out of five people who are actually obliged to leave have a tolerated status is a scandal," he said. "It is too easy to just stay here. The issuance of tolerated status by local foreigners' authorities must be made significantly more difficult."

Huge taxpayer burden

People with tolerated status are generally entitled to benefits under the Asylum Seekers' Benefits Act, which covers basic needs, accommodation, and limited medical care. After 36 months, these can approach levels closer to regular social assistance under certain conditions.

In 2025, gross expenditures under the Asylum Seekers' Benefits Act across Germany totaled about €6.16 billion, down from €6.72 billion the previous year.

Federal government spending related to refugees and asylum has run in the tens of billions of euros annually in recent years, though official statistics do not isolate the precise share attributable only to those with tolerated status versus those still in the asylum procedure or with other forms of protection.

As Remix News reported, government data shows that migration cost German taxpayers approximately €400 billion since 2026, with some estimates putting the sum much higher.

Long-term residents with tolerated status often remain on benefits for extended periods when they cannot secure employment or documents for return.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 02:00

Why Leftists Won't Let Us Live

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 04:25:00 +0000

Why Leftists Won't Let Us Live

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

Why must leftists conquer entire nations? Why do they get so angry at anyone who resists their ideology? Why can't they just build a new nation filled entirely with fellow leftists?

It really shouldn't be this difficult for Marxist-socialists, communists, "green energy" fanatics, "diversity, inclusion, and equity" cultists, and bureaucracy-worshiping globalists to build a regulatory paradise based on the "woke" commandments of their secular faith.

There are more than enough power-hungry leftist politicians in the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States to construct the all-powerful central government that they desire. Career bureaucrats in the U.S. have filled the administrative state with so many sub-agencies, boards, working groups, and miscellaneous programs that nobody in Congress could create an organizational chart accurately diagramming the bureaucratic blob. The European Union - a supranational shrine to bloated bureaucratic incompetence - has so many committees within its ranks that there are surely a dozen such committees studying why the Union has so many committees!

There are more than enough lefty billionaires - including George Soros, Bill Gates, Neville Roy Singham, Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer, and Howard Schultz - to put up the seed money for their communist utopia. Heck, Western central banks essentially exist to manipulate markets in favor of the left's pet causes, such as how best to funnel taxpayer dollars into the bank accounts of leftist billionaires who lecture the world about "global warming," "white supremacy," mandatory COVID shots, and the need for open borders and online censorship. Wall Street and City of London firms are more interested in companies' "social credit scores" and ESG bona fides than the traditional metrics of whether a business can generate profit and a return on investment.

There is a veritable glut of far-left scribes churning out propaganda for every prominent news publication in the West. Whether from the offices of state-funded propaganda networks such as the BBC and CBC or from the leftist-billionaire-subsidized propaganda newsrooms of The New York Times and The Washington Post, the leftist hive-mind controls the news.

Leftists have also taken over academia. It is rare to find a non-leftist intellectual on a prestigious university campus. Diversity of opinion is nonexistent. Just as is the case with "journalism," academia has become a "safe space" for leftists to give each other awards and sinecures in recognition of their imaginary brilliance while producing nothing new.

With all these institutional forces at their disposal, it is a wonder why they can't seem to seal the deal. How can you control the news, the universities, "woke" capital, the NGO network, the permanent government bureaucracy, and all the international agencies and not have already rebranded the United States as the "Union of Soviet Socialist Republics" or the "People's Republic of America"? It's embarrassing, really.

At the end of the day, there are just too many members of society who possess a modicum of common sense and refuse to buy what the commies are selling.

They know that women don't have penises and that men can't get pregnant.

They know that offshoring a nation's manufacturing and industry makes that nation weak.

They know that governments do not protect free speech by censoring the public and mandating that social media platforms promote Establishment propaganda.

They've heard the "climate change" canard for so many decades - including the institutionally-hyped promises from "respected" political leaders and broadcast "news" anchors that we'd all be dead by now from "global cooling"...er..."global warming"...er...I mean, "extreme weather" - that the "green new deal" has been exposed as nothing more than a scam for centralizing government power and making Al Gore and his doomsaying fraudsters filthy rich.

They know that "white supremacy" and "systemic racism" are bunk because everybody is encouraged to discriminate against and demonize white people.

Leftism is, first and foremost, an ideology of grievance. Its devotees don't have principles. They have targets. They tell their minions whom to blame for their miseries and failures. They encourage their brainwashed followers to steal what they want and to burn everything else down. As is currently visible amid the ruins of war-torn France, leftism is destruction.

That is why leftists can't just relocate en masse to Canada or carve out a new nation in some scarcely settled part of Africa, South America, Australia, or Asia. Leftism doesn't build; it takes. It doesn't inspire; it blames. Without an "oppressor" to vilify, leftism devours itself. Leftism is philosophical cannibalism.

Non-leftists have trouble understanding this kind of mentality. Non-leftists often try to move away from leftists and build lives of their own. Yet wherever they go, leftists follow them.

It's an infuriating dynamic. If leftism were capable of - to use one of its favorite words - "sustainability," leftists would be okay with an amicable social divorce.

It would be possible for the people who want to build things to separate from the people who want to take or destroy things.

It would be possible for the people who believe in biological reality and the chemistry of hydrocarbons to separate from the people who want to castrate children and live in electricity-free grass huts.

It would be possible for the people who want to own private property to separate from the people who want to share communal property.

It would be possible for the people who want to marry and have children to separate from the people who think marriage is patriarchal, personal pronouns are sacred speech, and children are killing the planet.

It would be possible for the people who wish to educate children in the sciences, philosophy, history, literature, and the arts to separate from the people who wish to indoctrinate children with the noxious manure of permanent victimhood, grievance, identity confusion, and "global warming" angst.

It would be possible for the people who value a person's character more than the color of a person's skin to separate from the people who obsess about race and sexual proclivities.

It would be possible for the people who believe in free speech, freedom of religion, and the natural right to self-defense to separate from the people who believe that government agents should be empowered to criminally punish people for their beliefs and censor whatever leftists define as "disinformation," "misinformation," or "hate speech."

It would be possible for the people who desire limited government to separate from the Big Government people who love bureaucracy and credentialed "expertise."

It would be possible for the people who cherish liberty to separate from the people who cherish social control.

But peaceful separation is impossible because leftists cannot permit jurisdictions outside of their control to succeed. When free societies prosper, Marxist-socialist and communist societies are exposed as authoritarian, joyless, poor, and weak. Leftism is so at odds with human nature that its proponents cannot allow those they enslave to witness a reality free from misery.

Otherwise, leftism's enslaved masses will risk their lives to climb over walls, trek through mountains, or cross oceans just to feel what it is like to be free. In the Soviet Union and East Germany, the communists built walls, not to keep illegal immigrants out, but rather to keep unhappy citizens in. Nobody breaks into the leftist "paradises" of communist Cuba or China; millions, however, have fled communist regimes. People escape from leftism and run toward freedom.

What this means is that leftists will never leave us alone. They will take from us, abuse us, censor us, persecute us, imprison us, and even kill us. But they will never peacefully separate from us. They cannot allow us to exist and flourish because any peace, prosperity, or happiness that we enjoy further reveals leftism's evil, misanthropic, and destructive nature.

Leftism cannot succeed unless everyone fails together.

Defending Western civilization requires us to recognize Marxist-socialism and leftist-globalism, not as dangerous worldviews, but rather as deadly enemies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 23:25

Israeli Intelligence Tells US That Iran Could Use Chemical Weapons

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 04:00:00 +0000

Israeli Intelligence Tells US That Iran Could Use Chemical Weapons

In something that sounds straight out of the Babylong Bee, the Israeli government has shared intelligence with the United States asserting that Iran is readying chemical weapons to use against adversaries.

And all of this is being floated in the pages of the New York Times, and on election day no less... A more on the nose script couldn't be written - very much like this one...

AFP/Getty Images

Apparently fully aware of this, the NY Times story authors underscore in their Tuesday afternoon headline that "Israeli Claims of Iranian Chemical Weapons Divide U.S. Officials."

This is given that the information was "met with alarm by some American officials and deep skepticism by others, according to U.S. and regional officials."

Stating the obvious: "Some American officials see the Israeli intelligence as part of a pressure campaign by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to persuade the Trump administration to return to major combat operations against Iran."

However, "Other officials believe the threats should be taken seriously, given the recent array of warnings about Iran’s preparations to attack American interests."

And the Gulf allies are skeptical for all the obvious reasons as well:

Israel has shared some of the information with officials in Gulf countries. Several doubted that Iran was developing plans to use chemical weapons and believe Israel is trying to push the United States and its partners to return to a more intense phase of the war.

It was well-known that Iran initated an apparently short-lived chemical weapons program starting in the early to mid 1980s as a direct result to extensive chemical attacks by Saddam Hussein's forces in the context of the Iran-Iraq War. However, Tehran soon after said it abandoned the program.

Chemical weapons are widely viewed as largely ineffective relative to conventional munitions, especially when it comes to using them on distant or wide battlefields - or anything but relatively confined spaces or areas. They tend to be seen as more a weapon of psychological terror than anything else.

For Israeli officials, it's enough to just float the evidence-free claim, and the MSM news cycle will pick it up...

A further irony in all this is that the Israelis and the NY Times apparently think everyone simply forgot that they floated the exact narrative concerning Iraq and "WMD" in the lead-up to the 2003 US invasion. We were treated to diagrams of 'mobile chemical weapons' labs and other propaganda, later proven to be completely false.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 23:00

Conservative Canadian MP Says His Father Was Offered Euthanasia Unprompted

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 03:35:00 +0000

Conservative Canadian MP Says His Father Was Offered Euthanasia Unprompted

Authored by Matthew Horwood via The Epoch Times,

Conservative MP Bob Zimmer said his father was offered medical assistance in dying (MAID) toward the end of his life without asking for it, prompting the MP to question whether safeguards for the procedure are being followed.

Zimmer said on X that his family was preparing to bring his father home from the hospital, as he "was about to pass away and he wanted to be at home to be more comfortable."

I watched a nurse at our local hospital offer MAID to my Dad.

He was not asking for it, nor had he asked for it.

We were trying to get him home as he was about to pass away and he wanted to be at home to be more comfortable.

So while we were waiting to be cleared to take him... https://t.co/uKSj8GWI8E
— Bob Zimmer (@bobzimmermp) November 1, 2026

While they were waiting, a nurse "approached us and offered MAID to him," despite his father having not asked for the procedure, the MP for B.C.'s Prince George - Peace River - Northern Rockies riding said.

"I was disgusted. All the warnings about MAID we debated in the [House of Commons] and warned would happen with the change in legislation and the Liberals said would never happen [...] are happening," he said.

An official from the justice minister's office told The Epoch Times that the law allows for health practitioners to provide eligible Canadians with the option for MAID. He said if Zimmer suspected wrongdoing or malpractice, he could raise it with the B.C. Ministry of Health's MAID Oversight Unit, which could then investigate.

Zimmer's testimonial was in response to a Leger survey that found one in 10 Canadians know someone who has been offered MAID for a treatable condition. Those surveyed were also asked if they knew someone in Canada who died due to a long healthcare waitlist, and 18 percent of those people said "yes."

The federal government, meanwhile, has tabled legislation to allow Canadians to make advance requests for MAID. The MAID Safeguards Act would allow individuals to provide advance consent for euthanasia after receiving a diagnosis of an incurable illness expected to impair their future decision-making ability, such as Alzheimer's or other degenerative neurological disorders.

The Justice Department has said that if a person shows a "clear refusal or resistance to MAID," then the advance request would be invalid and the procedure would not be provided. An advance request would not guarantee approval for MAID.

The legislation would also indefinitely extend the exclusion of people whose sole underlying medical condition is a mental illness from MAID eligibility. The exclusion is currently scheduled to expire on March 17, 2027, after two extensions prompted by concerns from provinces, territories, and healthcare stakeholders.

A parliamentary committee recommended making that exclusion permanent in a June report. The report cited concerns about determining whether a mental illness is irremediable, distinguishing MAID requests from suicidal intent, and ensuring access to adequate mental-health services.

The Conservative Party has opposed the expansion of MAID and called for stronger monitoring and public reporting, minimum national standards for oversight, and a review of the effectiveness and enforceability of existing MAID safeguards.

The Tories have also opposed advance consent for MAID, with Conservative MP Andrew Lawton requesting on Oct. 29 that the Liberals' bill be split into two so that advance consent and the indefinite exclusion of the mentally ill from accessing euthanasia can be voted on separately.

A total of 76,475 people received MAID in Canada between its legalization in 2016 and the end of 2024, according to Health Canada's latest annual report, released in late 2025. In 2024, MAID deaths accounted for 5.1 percent of all deaths in Canada.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 22:35

The AI Arms Race Goes To Orbit, And The Night Sky Is Collateral Damage

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 03:10:00 +0000

The AI Arms Race Goes To Orbit, And The Night Sky Is Collateral Damage

If built as filed with the FCC (by SpaceX, Blue Origin and Cowboy Space), the number of orbital data centers could, if left unmitigated, put roughly 100 times more visible satellites than stars in the night sky at some hours, according to a preprint by astronomers Aaron Boley, Samantha Lawler and Hanno Rein.

The paper, "Rings in the Sky," models three designs taken from company filings which suggest Blue Origin's Sunrise would be up to 51,600 satellites, Cowboy Space's Stampede 20,000, and SpaceX's constellation, which its filing describes as 1 million satellites, about 1.2 million once the orbits listed in a later update are added. Because the filings give only narratives and a few representative orbits, the authors fill in the rest with their own assumptions.

The satellites are big... and droppy.

SpaceX told the FCC its data center satellites would present about 800 square meters of area, counting radiators and solar panels. Cowboy's sketch implies a solar array of about 4,800 square meters, more than double the roughly 2,250 square meters on the International Space Station.

At 30 degrees latitude on a winter evening, the authors count about 98,000 satellites brighter than magnitude 5 in the sky from SpaceX's design alone, against roughly 500 stars of that brightness.

The rings would not be spread evenly.

The satellites would sit in Sun-synchronous rings that each cross the sky twice a day, and the paper says the largest impacts come in winter, when ring structures could be seen sweeping through otherwise dark skies. Near the poles they would stay in view through the day.

"People have lost the sense of the night sky because of the light-polluted cities," Boley told Scientific American. Gaspar Bakos of Princeton, who was not part of the study, told the magazine, "The effect of satellites is truly global, with no place to retreat from them."

The numbers rest on a simple model that treats each satellite as a reflective sphere, and the authors say actual brightness could be higher or lower.

The paper's conclusion is that only brightness reductions "by orders of magnitude" or hard limits on satellite numbers would avoid the worst case, and that "the only clear way to reduce the on-sky impacts of ODCs is to limit their use."

The authors list other costs.

A fleet of 1 million satellites with five-year lifetimes would mean one disposal every three minutes, and the paper says the metal deposited in the stratosphere would be orders of magnitude beyond anything yet modeled.

Not everyone's Panicking...

Stefan Andersson wrote on X that some people "want it to be impossible to build orbital data centers, so they make up all sorts of irrational reasons to justify their false beliefs," adding that SpaceX "already has 11,000+ satellites in LEO that demonstrate the feasibility of computing in space."

However, his point goes to whether the data centers can be built, not to the paper's brightness figures.

Some people want it to be impossible to build orbital data centers, so they make up all sorts of irrational reasons to justify their false beliefs. Fortunately for SpaceX it already has 11,000+ satellites in LEO that demonstrate the feasibility of computing in space. $SPCX https://t.co/QDhIRT863Y pic.twitter.com/zh4h0tOo5K
— Stefan Andersson (@Stefan_A) November 3, 2026

SpaceX has already dimmed its existing Starlink satellites and has promised mitigation in its filings, according to Scientific American, which says the other companies have not publicized plans.

Nevertheless, the American Astronomical Society has already asked the FCC to deny SpaceX's application, and says its concerns extend to the Starcloud, Blue Origin and Cowboy Space filings.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 22:10