ZeroHedge News

Hackers Launch 'Vishing' Cyberattacks Against Major Hedge Funds

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 19:25:00 +0000

Hackers Launch 'Vishing' Cyberattacks Against Major Hedge Funds

Several major Wall Street firms have been hit with a wave of sophisticated cyberattacks using voice phishing, or 'vishing' to trick employees into revealing sensitive information or granting access, Bloomberg reports.

Crash Override gets his ass handed to him by Acid Burn (Hackers)

The attacks targeted some of the world's largest hedge funds - including Citadel, Point72, and Two Sigma Investments, along with several private equity firms.

Two Sigma, which manages $75 billion, says they were able to thwart the attacks.

"Our security team responded quickly to an attempted vishing campaign targeting Two Sigma and other investment managers, and we have no indication of any impact to our data or our systems," a spokesperson told BBG. "We continue to monitor the situation closely."

While we don't know if the hackers used AI, cybersecurity attacks targeting Wall Street firms have surged over the past year, as artificial intelligence tools allow for cheap, fast, and efficient attacks according to Align Managed Services president, Vinod Paul.

"Before they could attack 50 entities in a targeted attack, now they can do 1,000," said Paul. "Hackers can also listen into a phone call and mimic the voice, tone and phrasings of the speakers to create fake calls."

In June, Google noted a wave of attacks this year against law firms and other professional service organizations - which also involved vishing, and people posing as IT workers to sneak into corporate offices.

Finra is now involved...

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which oversees broker dealers and securities professionals, has been in touch with member firms about recent attempted breaches, according to a separate person with knowledge of the matter.

Finra started the Financial Intelligence Fusion Center in March - a secure portal for Finra and its member firms to share intelligence about fraud threats and to help coordinate responses. That was in response to the increasingly sophisticated cyber and fraud threats that were being directed at financial services firms. -Bloomberg

"The terrifying thing about modern day AI systems is that they have commoditized this and made it possible to execute attacks at scale," said Will Wilson, the chief executive officer of Antithesis. "Everybody will have to seriously level up. Otherwise they are going to be in big trouble."

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 15:25

Former LAPD Officer Gets Life Sentence For Kidnapping Teen In $350,000 Crypto Robbery

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 19:05:00 +0000

Former LAPD Officer Gets Life Sentence For Kidnapping Teen In $350,000 Crypto Robbery

Authored by Brian Danga via TheBlock.co,

Former LAPD officer Eric Halem was sentenced to life plus 15 years in state prison on Tuesday for his role in the December 2024 armed robbery of a 17-year-old in Koreatown, who was robbed of a hard drive containing $350,000 worth of bitcoin.

Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Mildred Escobedo imposed the concurrent life terms for kidnapping and robbery after rejecting a last-ditch request by defense attorneys seeking a new trial, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Halem had sought a new trial on grounds that his initial attorneys failed to call witnesses or examine key evidence.

However, Judge Escobedo denied that motion, noting that the evidence presented at trial showed Halem had acted out of "sheer and utter greed," adding that "there could've been no other conclusion."

During Tuesday’s sentencing, Escobedo noted Halem had preyed on individuals who “perhaps shouldn’t be seen as victims, because they were criminals themselves,” but that that didn’t excuse his actions.

To abuse his power, by masquerading as a police officer, “is heinous and egregious,” she said.

According to a district attorney's spokesperson, Halem must complete most of his 15-year sentence before serving the concurrent life terms and will be eligible for parole after seven years.

Halem was convicted in March following a two-week trial in which a jury found him guilty of kidnapping and robbery.

Prosecutors said Halem and three co-conspirators entered a high-rise apartment and forced the victim, identified in court as Daniel, to hand over the hard drive under threat of death.

Halem had left the LAPD nearly two years before the robbery but was still serving as a reserve officer at the time, according to the LA Times.

He still faces pending charges in separate cases involving insurance fraud and another alleged crypto-related robbery, while his co-defendants have yet to stand trial, per the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 15:05

GTA VI Delay Fears Reignite As Ex-Rockstar Developer Says He "Would Not Be Shocked"

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 18:45:00 +0000

GTA VI Delay Fears Reignite As Ex-Rockstar Developer Says He "Would Not Be Shocked"

Speculation about a delay to Grand Theft Auto VI is spreading online after a former Rockstar Games developer said that, based on his experience working on previous installments, he "would not be shocked" if the game slips again. Another postponement would add to the previous delays and spark frustration among gamers who have waited more than 13 years for a fresh, updated version of the series.

Jake Brigstock of Indy100, a British digital news website, spoke with former Rockstar Games animator Mike York, via covers.com, about his confidence that Rockstar Games will be able to release GTA 6 by November 19 on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S.

York said he "would not be shocked at all" if there does end up being another GTA 6 release date delay.

"Personally after being there and working on GTA 5, I don't currently work there so I can't give a confidence based off that, but based on my previous experience, they could delay it again," said York.

"Straight up, they could delay it again. They can.

"They can do whatever they want and people will wait right now, it doesn't matter. If they need to do what they need to do, they'll do it.

"So if November comes around and they're thinking 'this final mission we have is still not looking very good, and there are still a few bugs in this final mission', they'll push it six more months if they have to.

"I would not be shocked at all. I don't think it would hurt them or anything."

Another delay would abosutely crush confidence in gamers whp've waited 13 year for another re-freshing of GTA.

Rockstar began taking GTA preorders on June 25. Take-Two Interactive Software, the owner of the gaming studio, has seen its stock meet heavy resistance at the $250 level since mid-2025.

Polymarket odds for "GTA 6 launch postponed again?" have yet to really move on Indy100's report that was posted on Tuesday.

GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Yes 11% · No 89%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Odds stand around 11%.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 14:45

At Least Ten Agitators Arrested In Madison As Filthy 'Autonomous Zone' Is Dismantled

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 18:25:00 +0000

At Least Ten Agitators Arrested In Madison As Filthy 'Autonomous Zone' Is Dismantled

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Authorities in Madison, Wisconsin on Tuesday sent in crews to clean up and dismantle the filthy and violent “autonomous zone” that was set up by left-wing agitators to protest the shooting of an armed violent felon. At least ten occupiers were arrested as of Tuesday morning, Fox 6 reported.

Repeat offender Corey Ruiz, 38, was shot by police on July 22 after allegedly attacking an officer with a knife.

Public records show that Ruiz had eight convictions for “resisting, obstructing, threatening or injuring police officers between 2007 and 2024,” according to Fox 6.

Five of those prior cases reportedly involved conflicts with City of Madison police officers.

After the shooting, activists, including Black Lives Matter members, quickly set up barricades using furniture, spike strips, and wooden pallets to occupy downtown Madison.

The Corey Ruiz Autonomous Zone (also known as CRAZE or “Corey Street”) was initially allowed by the woke mayor as a protest encampment.

The City of Madison even provided basic services, including portable restrooms and the use of salt trucks as street blockades. A homeless population quickly moved into the zone, creating a need for more services..

Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway on Friday described the zone as “not sustainable or safe” but did not set a timeline for clearing it.

Meanwhile, Independent journalist Nick Sortor was threatened over the weekend by BLM agitators while reporting at the scene.

“Hurry up and leave before your life ends here,” an agitator told Sortor. “There’s a whole team of us.”

Cleaning crews were sent in early Tuesday morning after “CRAZE” had become a public health hazard. After the decision to remove the encampment was announced, the occupiers reportedly lit fires and threw rocks at the city workers.

The agitators clashed with city and state police who were sent to the scene to protect the crews.

The agitators blocked the streets near the encampment after it was cleared.

The occupiers eventually moved to the mayor’s decrepit house to wage a “noise protest” over her decision to shut down their “CRAZE.” They littered the mayor’s front yard with anti-police signs, deployed a megaphone siren and screamed at her through a bullhorn.

“The community ain’t get no sleep ’cause of you!” an agitator bellowed through the bullhorn. “We saw you sent your pigs out too!”

“You have blood on your hands!” the agitator cried.

Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway said in a video statement Tuesday that the decision to clear the encampment at Williamson and Baldwin Streets was “not made lightly” and occurred only after nearly two weeks of failed attempts to resolve the situation voluntarily.

She urged the community to focus on “sustainable change” and accountability through official investigations rather than occupation, stating, “Holding government accountable for progress should not mean harming the community we all share.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 14:25

Ethereum Researchers Want To Rein In Staking; Critics Warn It Could Backfire

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 17:45:00 +0000

Ethereum Researchers Want To Rein In Staking; Critics Warn It Could Backfire

Authored by Felix Ng via CoinTelegraph.com,

A group of six Ethereum researchers and developers, including Ethereum Foundation’s Justin Drake, has proposed changing the network’s issuance policy to cut validator rewards more sharply as the proportion of staked ETH rises.

The draft, called the Tapered Issuance Burn and currently being assigned the provisional number EIP-8363, would burn an increasing fraction of validators’ consensus rewards as the amount of staked ETH approaches a fixed threshold of 60.25 million ETH (around 50% of the current ETH supply), at which point the deduction hits 100%. The changes would phase in over 18 months.

Tapered Issuance Burn Ethereum Improvement Proposal. Source: Github

The proposal has triggered backlash from developers, stakers and DeFi founders, who warn that the reward cuts could force out solo validators before larger institutions are affected, weaken institutional demand for ETH and disrupt DeFi markets built around staking yield.

One of the proposal’s authors, Jérôme de Tychey, said the changes are needed to address the rising share of Ether being staked, which passed 33% in April. The authors argue continued staking growth could concentrate ETH in large custodians and liquid staking providers, while unchecked issuance erodes Ether’s role as a neutral, trustless store of value.

“Ever-growing issuance is a dilution tax on every holder: stake, or be diluted. At high ratios, LSTs and other staking derivatives displace raw ETH as the ecosystem’s working money, thus swapping the most neutral, trustless asset for intermediated claims on issuers,” he said.

Although EIP-8363 remains an early draft, its publication just two days before a deadline for proposals targeting Ethereum’s Hegotá upgrade has also raised concerns about whether there is enough time to consider the impacts on Ethereum’s tokenomics.

EIP-8363 authors’ argument to cut issuance

The proposal’s authors argue that under the current curve, staking yield never drops below 1.5% even with all ETH in existence being staked.

“The incentive to stake never switches off. Where does it stop? It doesn’t,” said de Tychey.

With no changes, a worst-case scenario could see more than 55% of Ethereum supply locked in staking by 2028, he said.

“Maximal neutrality & minimal dilution: those are the two fundamentals of a store of value. This EIP not only hardens both, it sets a bar no other blockchain clears.”

🚨 New EIP: Tapered Issuance Burn
We just submitted an EIP to ethereum/EIPs: a minimal, market-driven fix to Ethereum's issuance policy removing the incentive for stake growth beyond 50% of ETH supply.
EIP-8361 by @pintail_xyz, @jdetychey, @dapplion, @pa7x1, @ladislaus0x &… pic.twitter.com/g1uzWPycQ4
— Jerome de Tychey 🦇🔊 (@jdetychey) August 4, 2026

The proposed policy would see issuance peak at 0.5% of ETH supply per year at its highest (around 20% of ETH is staked), declining to zero when the staking ratio of Ethereum hits the 60.25 million ETH threshold.

“ETH supply growth will be bounded and more predictable. Combined with the EIP-1559 and Blob burn, the supply will more often decrease. Ethereum, the most mature of all the protocols, with a sustainable security budget, will also be the least dilutive of all protocols,” said de Tychey.

The proposal’s broader direction has also received support from Grayscale. In May, Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl said limiting staking incentives would be “positive for the price of Ether over time.”

Critics say it’s punishing Ethereum’s growth

Aave founder Stani Kulechov said reducing staking rewards would weaken institutional demand for ETH and borrowing activity across DeFi, arguing the proposal “doesn’t achieve the outcome it tries to achieve and is actually hurtful for Ethereum.”

Another argument is that the proposal would impact solo validators as they have generally higher relative costs and are more susceptible to reward changes, leading to a more concentrated validator set.

“This will self evidently push out solo stakers who aren’t subsidized by the EF or others,” said Mike Silagadze, CEO of Ether.Fi.

“It will essentially guarantee that the only ones staking are large centralized entities with zero cost of capital where users passively hold their ETH.”

De Tychey disputed this point, saying on the Ethereum Magicians forum that users of large staking providers must pay fees, making those services less attractive as rewards fall, though he acknowledged the research on this is still contested.

The proposed network update would lower ETH issuance and inflation. Source: Zach Pandl

Others pointed to the seemingly rushed timeline to consider the proposal, though this appears to be due to confusion over the forthcoming deadline on Thursday.

“This clearly doesn’t leave adequate time for community review of a monetary policy change of this magnitude,” said Greg Koumoutsos, a co-author of EIP-8148 and EIP-8205.

Where the proposal currently stands

The Tapered Issuance Burn proposal has not been approved, scheduled or included in Hegotá.

While there is a Thursday deadline relating to this proposal, the deadline is for pull requests proposing additional EIPs for Hegotá, not a deadline for deciding which proposals will be included.

Ethereum community organizer Trent Van Epps said the selection process could continue until Nov. 8, and that Hegotá is likely to reach mainnet in the second quarter of 2027.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 13:45

Copper Tops $14,000 As US Stockpiling Drains Global Supply Ahead Of Trump's Tariff Call

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 17:25:00 +0000

Copper Tops $14,000 As US Stockpiling Drains Global Supply Ahead Of Trump's Tariff Call

Copper strength has returned to the London Metal Exchange this week as futures top $14,000 a ton. Another leg higher could be imminent, pushing prices into blue-sky territory as traders weigh tightening global supplies against robust metal inflows into the US ahead of President Trump's expected tariff decision.

The Commerce Department was expected to deliver its tariff recommendation by June 30, but no decision has been announced. On national security grounds, the agency is expected to impose import levies of up to 50% on semi-finished and derivative copper products under Section 232. The policy aims to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce foreign reliance, addressing supply chain risks from major exporters like Chile, Peru, and Canada.

Bloomberg reports more than 200,000 tons of copper flowed into US ports in July, the largest ever monthly inflow in data going back to 2014. High US prices have kept the trade profitable.

As a result, this has added to a massive hoard in U.S. warehouses and ports, while supplies in the rest of the world are dwindling.

LME inventories sank to a five-month low, while a widening backwardation signaled increasing pressure on near-term supplies. LME copper settled 1.4% higher at $14,066.50 a ton, while Comex futures rose as much as 2.3% to approach May's record high.

The tightening is visible in the LME forward curve. Nearby contracts traded at a $99.50-a-ton premium to three-month futures, up from about $30 a week earlier - the widest backwardation since January. This structure suggests pressure on short-term supplies.

Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina told clients earlier this summer that his team "wasn't bullish enough on copper," adding, "We now have the highest copper price forecast on the Street as we see strong US industrial demand and still tight supply."

Beyond Jefferies, HSBC, and Goldman, JPMorgan analysts have also told clients that the copper upcycle is being driven by a tightening supply backdrop, accelerating power-grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification. Taken together, some of Wall Street's top metals desks have warned about a sustained break above $14,000 on the LME.

However, Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball recently pointed out that a tariff disappointment, stronger dollar, or AI-led selloff would expose the growing bullish speculative bets on copper (read here).

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 13:25

Citadel Soars 6% In July Thanks To Situational Awareness Firesale Liquidation

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 17:05:00 +0000

Citadel Soars 6% In July Thanks To Situational Awareness Firesale Liquidation

Some have speculated that one of the most proximal catalysts behind the collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's $45 billion and epically misnamed Situational Awareness hedge fund, besides his use of batshit insane Total Return Swap leverage that would make an average Korean momentum-chasing degen blush with envy, was Citadel's vocal warning early last week that the Fed would/should hike rates, a contrarian appeal which, while not taken seriously by any Fed watcher, may have spooked markets to the necessary and sufficient breaking point that forced the flood of margin calls that ultimately wiped out Leopold.

While we doubt that Citadel was so tactically engaged as to crush the young and inexperienced Leopold and hear the lamentations of his soon to be wife with fringer notes, we are certain that his massive TRS leverage - as much as 4x on both side of a pair trade that had gone terribly wrong by being long chips and short software - and which we warned back in June was clearly in play and would lead to ruin for one or more funds, was more than sufficient to force the hedge fund's liquidation by bringing its assets under management from $45 billion at the start of July to just $10 billion at the end.

More importantly, it led to a blowout month for none other than the flagship fund of Ken Griffin’s Citadel which jumped 5.9% in July, a month when most of its peers suffered major losses (look no further than Coatue's 8% drop) after it bought billions of dollars of AI stocks in a fire sale from Aschenbrenner’s now collapsed hedge fund Situational Awareness.

Citadel, which manages more than $71bn, has now seen its Wellington fund surge 12% so far in 2026 after a turbulent July which ultimately generated half the firm's YTD gains, the FT reported citing people who have seen the numbers.

After a huge rally in AI-related equities earlier in the year, hedge funds were smashed by a historic collapse in high beta momo stocks in July which nuked most popular holdings such as South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix which tumbled almost 50% from a peak in June. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 briefly veered into correction territory last week, shortly before the deal to sell Situational Awareness’s book.

More than a month after we warned that massive TRS leverage would lead to one or more Archegos-like casualties (with or without the criminal element)...

Has anyone done the analysis which funds have the most TRS on AI, aka Archegos 2.0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 12, 2026

... that's precisely what happened when Aschenbrenner’s - which notched gains of more than 400% in the first half of the year with its highly leveraged bets on AI companies - became the most prominent casualty of the violent momentum reversal.

The sell-off crippled the fund, pushing it to sell the majority of its public equity positions to Griffin’s firm last week in a quick-fire process that took place over less than 24 hours. Citadel approached Situational Awareness late on July 29 and negotiated with the firm overnight. It signed a contract in less than 24 hours for the sale, which came with a 10% discount, Bloomberg has previously reported.

Citadel’s own funds had struggled to generate big returns during the first weeks of July amid the sell-off in equities. As of July 24, Wellington was roughly flat month-to-date. In the three days prior to Citadel’s acquisition of Situational Awareness, stocks fell further.

Citadel competed with trading firm Jane Street and fellow multi-manager hedge fund giant Millennium for the purchase of Situational Awareness’s equities book last week, eventually winning the auction with about a 10% discount, FT sources reported.

Separately, before the sale to Citadel, Silicon Valley venture capital firms Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital were approached about taking over the some of the privately held stakes in Situational Awareness’ portfolio.

The troubled fund also had close links to some of the world’s biggest investment banks. Situational Awareness used prime brokers including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America according to filings.

In an exclusive report this morning, the WSJ wrote that Situational Awareness was backed by a wide lineup of Silicon Valley and Wall Street investors who put their faith in a 20-something founder with no prior professional investing experience. Among the fund’s investors are Dan Sundheim, founder of the hedge fund D1 Capital Partners and a major SpaceX shareholder; Silicon Valley investor Neil Mehta, co-founder of venture-capital firm Greenoaks; the foundation of Gaurav Kapadia, founder of investment firm XN; and Feroz Dewan, the former head of public equities at Tiger Global Management, according to people familiar with the matter.

Stripe co-founders Patrick Collison and John Collison, and Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman, who lead Meta Platforms’ AI efforts, are among Situational’s other investors. Some investors might have invested through their foundations, family offices or other entities.

Situational was also backed by foundations including the Laniakea Charitable Foundation and Good Forever Foundation, according to tax and regulatory filings reviewed by fund-data tracker Old Well Labs. The president and director of Laniakea is Matthew Wage, a Jane Street trader, tax filings show. Good Forever is a grant-making organization focused on AI safety and AI policy.

Aksia, a research and advisory firm to institutions including pensions, family offices and sovereign-wealth funds, made note of Aschenbrenner’s intellect and network in a March 2025 assessment for clients after meeting with him. But it also wrote that prospective investors in Situational “may want to be wary of hubris leading to risk management issues, particularly if the use of leverage is indeed significant,” according to a copy of the note viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The last ditch rescue by Citadel was not only a brilliant distressed investment which helped generate billions in short-term profits, it also helped to stem a broader market rout because Situational Awareness’s forced selling had been exacerbating the sell-off in AI stocks. Many of Aschenbrenner’s biggest investments according to his last regulatory filing - including Bloom Energy and Sandisk - rallied the day after the sale. The latter has gained nearly 30% since last Wednesday.

“These are names that trade really aggressively,” said one hedge fund manager who had invested in similar positions to those of Situational Awareness. “They were highly volatile, but they were liquid. So Citadel made a killing.”

As the FT notes, Griffin is known to charge towards firms that run into trouble. The day Enron filed for bankruptcy in 2001, Griffin sent more than a dozen of his executives to Houston on a chartered Gulfstream jet to dig into its failure, and later poached several of the company’s top analysts. The hedge fund has also stepped in before to buy the remains of failed competitors. In 2006, Citadel bought the entire trading book of Amaranth Advisors alongside JPMorgan after the fund blew up from bad bets on natural gas. A year later, it pulled off a similar coup by snapping up the credit portfolio of Sowood Capital Management when it collapsed.

“It’s classic Ken,” said one former employee, who worked closely with the Citadel founder. “He has played that card many times . . . There are very few places in the world who can do what he did.”

As for Leopold, don't cry for the former OpenAI staffer. He may have blown up this time but after his stint working for SBF at FTX, he surely has learned how to survive blow ups such as this one, and as long as he has his freedom (unlike his former boss) he will emerge somewhere (assuming he has an ironclad prenup of course).

The Dario curse:

SBF invested in Anthropic. Stake now worth billions, but fund blows up (SBF in prison)

Leopold invested in Anthropic. Stake now worth billions, but fund blows up (Leopold getting married)
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 30, 2026

As the WSJ notes, Aschenbrenner started his hedge fund in 2024. After a string of prescient stock picks, including memory-chip makers SK Hynix and Sandisk, his assets under management swelled, placing the firm among the fastest-growing hedge funds in years. The rapid rise earned him a reputation as a stock-picking wunderkind and the nickname “the Nostradamus of AI.”

In retrospect, he was just a massively levered degen who, like the infamous Taleb turkey, was lucky for 99.9% of the ride... and then Thanksgiving happened.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 13:05

Iran-Oman Hormuz Route 'Agreed To' As Iran Warns Against US 'Interference'

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 17:05:00 +0000

Iran-Oman Hormuz Route 'Agreed To' As Iran Warns Against US 'Interference'

Summary

Iran says Hormuz route is agreed: Tehran says it has finalized a shipping route with Oman, blaming U.S. actions for delaying a final agreement.
Tehran claims victory: Iranian officials say the deal would lock in Iran's wartime gains and strategic leverage over Hormuz.
Mixed messages: Trump says a deal could come within days, while Iran insists the talks are only with Oman.
Draft outline emerges: Reports outline Iranian oversight of inbound traffic and Omani management of outbound shipping.
High stakes as pressure eased on markets, but geopolitical tensions high: A deal could ease energy market fears while leaving Iran with more influence over Hormuz than before the war.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Yes 80% · No 21%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

* * *

Iran-Oman Route 'Agreed To' as Iran Warns Against US 'Interference'

A statement from Iran's Foreign Ministry warns that the United States and military 'interference' remain the biggest obstacles to a final Hormuz deal to reopen the strait:

Esmaeil Baqaei: The geographical coordinates of the route proposed by Iran and Oman in the Strait of Hormuz have been agreed upon. If some third parties do not obstruct this process, the joint statement between the two countries is in the final review and drafting stage. The understanding between Iran and Oman, in itself, cannot guarantee the safety of the Strait for passing ships, because the factors that create insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly those stemming from the United States, such as the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests, still exist.

Latest details from Financial Times:

Initially, Iran would send ships, including oil tankers, through the waterway to ensure it is free of mines before the strait opens to other shipping, FT reports citing sources

Ships would not be charged fees during the temporary arrangement, the people added.

If a deal holds and the strait reopens, the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and reinstate a waiver to allow Iran to sell oil and petroleum-related products, one of the people said.

Iranian pundits and state media continue touting this as a 'victory' over the US-Israeli war of aggression:

Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, has said Iran is aiming to “stabilise” its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is its “biggest military achievement of the war”.

“Negotiations are aimed at stabilizing those achievements,” Dareini told Al Jazeera. “You do not negotiate to give away your achievements but stabilise them.”

Once Iran opens up the strait, Dareini said Iran is still likely to put in place a mechanism to “ensure that peace will prevail”.

“Iran wants to make sure that there will be innocent passage … But there will not be hazardous passage, there will not be war,” he said, arguing that Tehran needs to ensure the US and its allies do not transport military equipment that could be used for attacks against it.

This also as Yemen's Houthis continue a 'siege for siege' blockade of Red Sea passage, targeting Saudi-linked vessels of Yemen's coast, as we described.

Thus far on Wednesday, the White House has remained mostly quiet on what seem to be Iran and Omani-driven talks for terms of the Hormuz Strait's reopening. Tehran, however, has not remained quiet - as US bombs have fallen silent over the past couple days:

IRAN SAYS NEW HORMUZ ROUTE TO BE VALID FOR 2-4 MONTHS: IRNA
IRAN: NEW OMAN DEAL TO CLOSE TEMPORARY HORMUZ SHIPPING ROUTES
GHARIBABADI SAYS IRAN RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM US: IRNA
IRAN: US SAID IN MESSAGES IT'S READY TO RETURN TO ITS PLEDGES

And via Israeli media, though without official confirmation from Washington:

Approaching an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz, N12 reports, citing American officials; The signing of the agreement is possible as early as tonight.

Meanwhile, much of all of the above depends on what 'mood' Trump is in:

US military-intelligence leaks to media are designed to dissuade Trump from escalating his war (we’re out of missiles & interceptors, Iran isn’t; Iran won’t break, etc). Whereas Israeli intel leaks to media are designed to rile Trump into escalating the war by calling him a pussy https://t.co/Uu3wfmZX8r
— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) August 5, 2026

Trump: Deal Moving Along 'Very Nicely'

President Trump said late Tuesday that talks with Iran are "moving along very nicely" - in a highly fluid and ambiguous situation where it appears the two sides are only interacting indirectly at best.

But the Iranian side has continued to insist that there are currently no peace or ceasefire talks happening, but only the Iran-Oman negotiations which focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and setting terms of how it will be managed. Consistent with this narrative, Al Jazeera freshly cites Iran's state broadcaster IRIB which reports that talks between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz "have nothing to do with the United States". But Washington is presenting it as a US-Oman deal for the strait's reopening, even if it fundamentally remains an Iranian-Omani proposal.

WANA/Reuters/AP images

Timeline: Deal as Soon as This Week?

Trump in his latest comments echoed his Treasury Secretary from the day prior, saying, "It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day." This was on the heels of traveling to Los Angeles yesterday for a fundraising event hosted by the Republican National Committee. "A lot of progress has been made."

He told Fox that the White House is now having "very good discussions" with Iranian officials as part of an "all-day negotiation" and that the Strait of Hormuz reopening "is going to be open very soon."

"If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard," the president told the outlet. He had said the same by close of last week, but by the weekend reversed course and decided to refrain from attacking Iran again.

According to Bloomberg, "The US, Iran and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz" - but the Iranian side has not affirmed this.

So as it stands, Tehran says it is driving the Oman talks and that Washington has been sidelined, while the White House claims that it has directly involvement in shaping the outcome.

Iran-Oman-(& US) Hormuz Draft Outline Emerges

But all sides do seem in agreement that the technical details and mechanics of the deal are currently being worked on. According to the latest outline of what this is expected to look like via CBS:

Under the current proposal, ships entering the Strait would use the channel closest to Iran, with Iran coordinating inbound traffic, while vessels leaving the strait would use the Omani side, with Muscat managing outbound traffic. The proposal also includes a "service fee," with the revenue split between Iran and Oman.

According to the source, the broad outlines have largely been agreed upon, with the remaining discussions focused on implementation and timing. Axios reported something similar, in which the US is nearing a Hormuz deal. Axios added that no tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period and the parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.

As for the claim of 'no tolls', this could once again be just semantics, given the Iranian and Omani sides have consistently signaled the need for fund collection under the headers of safe navigation, logistics, and environmental protection.

There has also been some progress on agreements for third-party demining operations. But as Rubio reminded the world yesterday, Washington still insists resolving the nuclear issue - something which the Iranians still say can only be broached after the conflict is ended and there is peace.

Below is the version of where things stand via Axios:

All inbound traffic of ships through the strait and into the Gulf would go in a northern lane through Iranian waters.
All outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea would go in a southern lane through Omani waters, in coordination with Iran.
No tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period.
The parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.
After the median lane is cleared, it would be used for inbound and outbound traffic under the terms of a permanent arrangement to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.

More regional commentary serves as a reminder of the significant obstacles that remain toward reaching a final peace, much less the full reopening of Hormuz Strait:

But while Iranians are saying that, at this point, talks are limited to Iran and Oman, it goes without saying that the US is a key factor. We’ve got a report from state TV today citing an informed source who said that even if a deal were reached today, the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement by the US means there won’t be a reopening of the strait. One of the key points of concern for the Iranians regarding the strait is the removal of the naval blockade by the Americans. They have been constantly saying that this is one of the pre-conditions.

If Axios and some other major MSM reports are to be believed, the scheme is advancing on the Iranian side. "Two regional sources said Araghchi agreed in principle over the weekend but still needed approval from Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Supreme National Security Council," writes the publication. "A U.S. official and a regional source said Iranian leadership completed its approval process on Tuesday."

An interim maritime arrangement, inside a Memorandum of Understanding, within a ceasefire.

It's a diplomatic turducken. https://t.co/WpXke2brda
— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) August 5, 2026

Draft Deal Widely Seen as Victory for Iran

If all the above comes into force, it will widely be seen as a victory for Iran. It will leave Iran with greater control over energy transit than before the war. Simultaneously this would be Trump essentially cutting and running in order to finally extricate American forces from the deepening quagmire, while approaching the six-month mark since Operation Epic Fury started.

For example, even the NY Times admits, "Iran and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian and American officials, but if the accord goes into effect it could come at a high price — ratifying Tehran’s control over what, before the war, was an open, international waterway." While markets would breath a sigh of relief, Tehran would be in the driver's seat geopolitically.

US officials cited in the same report have only said the Hormuz scheme would the "temporary" - and so the ongoing contrasting interpretations suggest another tenuous and shaky agreement in the works.

"But if, ultimately, Iran asserts continued control over the passageway, the opening might come with a geopolitical cost. Iranian officials say they are designing the accord to ratify their capacity to control the strait and therefore retain strategic leverage that they did not employ before the war," the NYT also wrote.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 13:05

Google's Chief AI Scientist Jeff Dean Exits After 27 Years, Alphabet Shares Slide

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 16:45:00 +0000

Google's Chief AI Scientist Jeff Dean Exits After 27 Years, Alphabet Shares Slide

Alphabet shares slid after The Wall Street Journal reported that Jeff Dean, one of Google's earliest employees and a key figure in its AI strategy (co-founder of Google Brain), is departing after nearly three decades to launch his own AI company. The exit raises fresh concerns about Google's ability to retain top researchers as competition for AI experts intensifies.

Dean was Google's 30th employee in 1999 and will serve as CEO of Discovery Loop, a public-benefit corporation initially targeting machine-learning research and engineering. The startup will then transition to hardware design, drug discovery, and clean energy by automating multistep scientific experiments.

WSJ spoke with Dean:

"The four of us have been chatting about this a little bit and we got excited," Dean said in an interview at his Palo Alto, Calif., home Tuesday.

"We think by automating many of the classical experimental-loop aspects with machine learning models, augmenting human scientists and engineers, we'll be able to make it possible to explore more space in broad science areas to accelerate discovery."

The scientific process, he said, is about coming up with an idea for an experiment, setting up and running the experiment and then evaluating the results.

"Particularly in a lot of domains, you can fully computerize that whole loop," he said -- the inspiration for the startup's name.

Alphabet will invest in Dean's startup and provide cloud and computing capacity, while Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures are co-leading a seed round. The valuation wasn't disclosed.

WSJ said that prominent Google researchers Oriol Vinyals, Quoc Le and Sanjay Ghemawat will be joining Dean in the new startup.

Shares of Alphabet dropped 5% after the report hit:

Four minutes after the WSJ report hit, Demis Hassabis, the head of Google DeepMind, wrote on X:

I've been working towards AGI my whole life, and as we enter this pivotal moment, I'm stepping into a new role as Chair of Google DeepMind & Chief Scientist of Alphabet. This will allow me to focus on long-term strategy, and accelerating scientific breakthroughs, including leaning into my work at Isomorphic to help cure disease.

I’ve been working towards AGI my whole life, and as we enter this pivotal moment, I’m stepping into a new role as Chair of Google DeepMind & Chief Scientist of Alphabet. This will allow me to focus on long-term strategy, and accelerating scientific breakthroughs, including…
— Demis Hassabis (@demishassabis) August 5, 2026

Google CEO Sundar Pichai commented on the departures, saying Dean and Ghemawat helped engineer some of the company's most significant technology transitions over nearly three decades at the company and wished them the best.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 12:45

Second Foreign Vessel Attacked Off Yemen Within Hours, Amid Houthi 'Siege For Siege' Blockade

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 16:35:00 +0000

Second Foreign Vessel Attacked Off Yemen Within Hours, Amid Houthi 'Siege For Siege' Blockade

Update(1235ET): The Houthis have apparently attacked two vessels off Yemen's coast within a mere few hours on Tuesday, as clearly the assault on international shipping by the Iran-aligned group has grown.

The below alert from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre is the second one today. Just hours before, an initial vessel had been reported sunk, the crew rescued... and now this:

The incident took place 95 nautical miles (176km) south-east of Aden, Yemen, according to UKMTO, adding that all the vessel’s crew are “accounted for and safe”.

UKMTO WARNING 106-26

Click here to view the full warning⤵️https://t.co/iEt5aG0Mru #MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/6QeQIOu6qd
— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) August 5, 2026

And just the day prior: "The Indian Ministry of External Affairs on Tuesday condemned the attack on the India-flagged commercial vessel, MSV Faize Noore Oliya, which sank in the Red Sea, off the coast of Yemen on August 4, 2026."

This comes as the Saudis are desperately trying to put together a 'coalition of the willing' to defend against such attacks. While the Houthis have not declared Bab al-Mandab Strait closed to 'all' shipping, they have declared a 'siege for siege' blockade against Saudi shipping.

* * *

The Houthis have quickly made good on their earlier threat, with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre having reported the following fresh attack off Yemen:

UKMTO has received a time-late report of an incident 9NM southwest of Al Mukha, Yemen.
The CSO of the vessel has reported that the vessel was attacked by an Uncrewed Surface Vessel which caused a fire onboard. The crew have been rescued by local authorities and are safe and well.
The vessel has been reported as sunk.
Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO while authorities are investigating.

The stricken vessel's crew has reportedly been rescued, after the fire on board and subsequent sinking.

Oil prices remain elevated also as over in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians insist that the Omani deal to reopen the strait has "nothing to do with the United States."

earlier

Brent crude bounced off the $78-a-barrel level early Wednesday after Iran-backed Houthi militants threatened to attack Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea, reviving fears that the regional conflict could spread to another critical shipping channel. The move came despite an overnight Axios report, citing two sources and a US official, that President Trump's negotiators and Tehran are nearing an Oman-brokered interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Bloomberg report cites Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, who said the threat is retaliation for Saudi Arabia diverting oil tankers away from the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

Brent crude bounced from the $78 level to $80, clawing back some of its losses after tumbling from $86 to $78 on news that the US and Iran were closing in on an interim deal to reopen Hormuz.

WTI topped $76 this morning before fading modestly...

The latest shipping data from the Hormuz chokepoint show that transits through the critical waterway remain well below the levels seen during the first interim peace deal, which eventually fell apart one month later and resulted in the recent tit-for-tat strikes.

Last night, President Trump told reporters, "They had an all-day negotiation. The Strait of Hormuz is going to be open very soon," adding, "If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard."

Trump has repeatedly threatened massive strikes if Tehran fails to reach a deal, only to later signal progress in negotiations.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 12:35

Ukraine Shot Down Zero Missiles In Huge Russian Overnight Salvo That Killed At Least 21

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 16:10:00 +0000

Ukraine Shot Down Zero Missiles In Huge Russian Overnight Salvo That Killed At Least 21

According to a growing casualty count, a large barrage of ballistic missiles fired by Russia on Ukraine has killed at least 21 people and wounded dozens more.

The overnight attack has raised the alarm for Ukraine's Western backers, given it is being widely reported that among the over two dozen ballistic and anti-ship missiles fired, not a single one was intercepted by Ukraine.

Huge overnight attack on the Ukrainian capital, via X

The attacks come on the heels of a record month: July saw over 380 missiles of all types launched on Ukraine, with government authorities citing the highest civilian casualties since 2022, with at least 377 civilians killed, and another 2,129 wounded for the month of July.

As Ukraine grapples with very low and limited missile interceptors, and amid reports that the Pentagon too is struggling to keep up supplies amid the Iran war, CNN also confirms that "as Russia fired more than two dozen ballistic and anti-ship missiles" and that "none" were intercepted by Ukrainian defenses.

President Zelensky again took to social media to urge partners to rapidly send more anti-air missiles: "It is crucial that our partners realize that delays in their delivery or a reluctance to provide anti-ballistic systems lead precisely to such horrific casualties and destruction," he said.

"Partners who are not ready to help more actively with the supply of interceptors right now can help by imposing new sanctions," he added.

Notably the Russian strikes have expanded to not just city infrastructure, energy cites, military bases, and ports - but now Russia appears to be going after prominent businesses.

This comes after Ukraine's repeat attacks on Wildberries facilities, the Russian online retailer giant comparable to Amazon:

The strikes also caused damage to prominent businesses in Ukraine, including the country’s largest e-commerce platform, Rozetka, and Epicentr, a retail chain comparable to IKEA.

In a statement, Epicentr said Russia launched a "devastating attack" on its manufacturing infrastructure, killing one of its male employees. “In a matter of minutes, Russian missiles destroyed what the company had been building for decades,” the statement said.

FOZZY group, which is one of Ukraine’s largest retailers that operates supermarket chains, said Russian shelling caused fires at two of its distribution centers. It said that six of its employees had been killed, while more have been injured.

Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv.

At least 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, 5 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, and 2 Kn-23 ballistic missiles were launched from Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts.

Every single missile impacted. Not a single Patriot… pic.twitter.com/vXUKsehk4s
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) August 5, 2026

But on the flip side Ukraine has only expanded its own long-range drone attacks on Russian territory, including on the capital city.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has explained to TASS that "In recent months, the number of drones launched toward Moscow has increased significantly. And overall, of all the attacks carried out almost daily against Russian territory, two-thirds of the drones are heading toward Moscow."

Last month Zelensky had announced a 40-day "operation of influence" - describing a multi-pronged campaign of long-range drone strikes intent on forcing Moscow to halt the war and get to the negotiating table on terms favorable to Ukraine. The Russian military has all the while also been upping its response.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 12:10

Middle East War Triggers New Global Refining Boom

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 15:50:00 +0000

Middle East War Triggers New Global Refining Boom

Submitted By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

For the second time this decade, a war has upended global oil markets and sent oil prices and refining margins to multi-year highs, benefiting the world’s biggest oil companies and top refiners.

The war in Iran has tightened fuel supply as crude oil has struggled to move through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering reduced refining throughput in Asia and a temporary Chinese ban on exports. The fuel markets tightened even more than the crude market to send refining margins to record highs.

And the biggest refiners benefited from the new refining boom, with Big Oil reporting their highest second-quarter earnings since the previous outbreak of a war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The bumper earnings were driven not only by the jump in oil prices between April and June—the contribution of the refining and trading divisions was also fundamental for fueling the high profits.

Record Refining Margins

Despite the slump in crude prices and the extreme volatility in the past five months, the refined product market continues to tighten with refining margins at record highs because the supply of petroleum products is much tighter than crude supply.

Refining margins held at record highs even as crude oil prices soared to $100 per barrel and above. That’s because global gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel supply is tightening and has been tightening for months amid a combination of factors, most stemming from the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Last month, refining margins for gasoline and diesel jumped to new record highs amid on-and-off escalation in the Middle East, Russia’s ban on diesel exports, and crumbling global fuel inventories.

In a rare statement last month, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that “There is no room for complacency on oil security amid the escalation in hostilities and a continued drawdown of available commercial inventories.”

While assuring markets that IEA countries still hold more than 1 billion barrels of government-controlled stocks, Birol said that “Refinery activity and product supplies have not picked up as much as crude deliveries, meaning that markets for refined oil products, including diesel and gasoline, are considerably tighter than those for crude.”

Big Oil’s Bumper Profits

As a result of the tight fuel markets and soaring refining margins, the world’s biggest international oil companies reported their strongest earnings for the second quarter since at least 2022. They also expect refining to continue providing high earnings in the short term amid distorted fuel markets with restricted supply and refining capacity.

Shell, for example, more than doubled its second-quarter earnings from a year earlier, as higher oil and gas prices, record refinery utilization, and strong trading boosted profits to above analyst expectations.

Refinery utilization at Shell was 102% in April to June, compared with 99% in the first quarter of 2026, mainly due to lower planned and unplanned maintenance activities. Strong refining and chemical margins also boosted Shell’s earnings in the past quarter.

Shell’s global indicative refining margin rose to $24 from $17 per barrel in the first quarter, while the global indicative chemical margin doubled to $270 per ton, from $139 per ton.

“The operational performance of Refining has been excellent,” CEO Wael Sawan said on Shell’s earnings call.

TotalEnergies’ adjusted net income jumped by 68% from a year earlier to $6 billion for the second quarter of 2026 as the jump in oil prices and refining margins boosted earnings and cash flows.

The European Refining Margin Marker for the supermajor rose by 19% quarter-to-quarter and soared nearly threefold year-to-date compared to the first half of 2025, to $12.4 per barrel, up from $4.3 a barrel.

“Refining and Chemicals performed in an exceptional way leveraging market conditions, managing well the tensions on supply of refined products to maximize captured margins,” TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said on the earnings call.

The U.S. supermajors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, also reported their highest earnings in years, drawing criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who this week said they are making “too much money” and “They’re going to give some of that back to the public and they better cut the retail price, the consumer price.”

Chevron had record refinery throughput of over 1 million barrels per day for the second quarter, CEO Mike Wirth said on the earnings call on Friday.

“Middle distillates are really the tight spot right now. Initially, it looked like jet, now diesel,” the executive noted, saying that European diesel demand could soon start rising from relatively weak levels in Q2 amid restocking of heating oil ahead of winter.

“That lands on top of the export ban from Russia, refinery outages in Russia, the obvious constraints that exist in the Strait,” Wirth added.

China and its demand is a big unknown for the market now, but Chevron doesn’t see a significant scale of demand destruction, said the executive, adding “I think we're going to see some upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that.”

Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods said the supermajor expects continued “very robust refining market with very high margins.”

Even if supply disruptions are resolved by the end of the year and crude and fuels flows from the Middle East are restored, low global inventories and the need to restock could support the global refining complex for a few more quarters.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 11:50

Progressive El-Sayed Wins Michigan's Democratic Senate Primary

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 15:15:00 +0000

Progressive El-Sayed Wins Michigan's Democratic Senate Primary

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

ANN ARBOR, Mich. - Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated establishment candidate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) to win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary in a contentious race that became a proxy fight for the broader battle within the party over its direction.

Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks at a rally in Canton, Mich., on July 29, 2026. Jacob Burg/The Epoch Times

El-Sayed beat his centrist opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), 48.5 percent to 47.5 percent, with 99 percent of the votes tabulated. The Associated Press called the race at 9:54 a.m. ET on Aug. 5.

The progressive will take on Republican Mike Rogers in November in the race for Michigan's battleground Senate seat.

El-Sayed faced more than $60 million in outside spending in support of Stevens, compared to around $4.6 million spent to support his campaign.

The race became a flashpoint in a wider ideological battle taking place nationwide in the Democratic Party between progressives and establishment centrists.

A number of progressive leaders, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) endorsed El-Sayed ahead of the Aug. 4 primary.

Stevens received support from outgoing Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), as well as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).

A Rhodes Scholar and epidemiologist, El-Sayed was the director of the Wayne County Health Department from 2023 to 2025. He ran on a platform supporting Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in favor of bringing back the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), passing a moratorium on U.S. data centers, and ending U.S. military support for Israel.

Stevens began her political career working on the 2008 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, before pivoting to President Barack Obama's campaign after he clinched the nomination that year. She then served as chief of staff for Obama's auto rescue program - experience she championed throughout her campaign for Senate.

Running on a broadly liberal platform of lowering costs, rebuilding the auto industry, and bringing back manufacturing to Michigan, Stevens faced criticism from progressives like El-Sayed for defending continued U.S. military support of Israel and for accepting record financial support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) this year.

AIPAC and its associated groups - which supported Stevens' successful primary battle against then-Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) in 2022 - had spent $30.6 million on the race by July 30, its largest election expenditure in history.

El-Sayed highlighted the record expenditures on the campaign trail over the past month, telling rallygoers that AIPAC was trying to "buy" the race away from Michiganders.

Asked about AIPAC's ongoing financial support for her during a July 27 debate, Stevens said her support for Israel was more nuanced but didn't address the record spending.

"I believe in a two-state solution. [El-Sayed] has attacked me for supporting that people in Palestine and Israel deserve to live side by side peacefully. And [Benjamin Netanyahu] has attacked me by name, and they both represent the extremes," Stevens said.

After a rally in a coffee shop in Canton Township on July 29, El-Sayed told reporters that he believes American taxpayer money is being wasted to support foreign militaries overseas.

"We pay more for all we have to buy. We pay less for the work we do. [We] watch as our tax dollars get misappropriated to drop bombs and buy tanks for foreign countries instead of building schools and healthcare for our own," El-Sayed said.

Electability Argument

The closing argument of Stevens' campaign was that she is more electable in a November matchup against Rogers, who lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) by less than 20,000 votes in 2024, when President Donald Trump won Michigan.

In a flurry of text messages sent out in the twilight hours of the primary race, Stevens claimed she was the only Democrat who could defeat a Republican in purple Michigan.

The congresswoman seized on a July 28 Glengariff Group poll that measured hypothetical matchups of Stevens vs. Rogers and El-Sayed vs. Rogers.

That poll gave Stevens a 0.8-point advantage over Rogers, while by contrast, the Republican led El-Sayed by more than 10 percentage points.

"Poll after poll shows I'm the strongest Democrat to beat Mike Rogers. But MAGA Republicans and their billionaire donors are trying to boost my opponent to shut down our momentum," Stevens wrote in a campaign text sent on Aug. 2.

However, a Mitchell Research poll released on July 31 found Rogers and El-Sayed tied in a hypothetical matchup, whereas Stevens trailed the Republican by 4 percentage points.

"Highly electable candidates don't usually need $60 million to come in to help them get elected. That is a historical amount of money," El-Sayed told The Epoch Times after his rally in Ypsilanti, Michigan, on July 30.

"If you can't get elected without $60 million, you're not electable," he added.

And of course, Trump has some thoughts about 'her':

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 11:15

FAFO: Democrat Candidate Threatening Beachgoers Gets Knocked Out Cold On Beach

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:55:00 +0000

FAFO: Democrat Candidate Threatening Beachgoers Gets Knocked Out Cold On Beach

A Democrat hopeful gunning for a seat in Congress is sitting behind bars on $1 million bail after police described a chaotic beachside confrontation on Maui that involved a knife, repeated threats, and the candidate left unconscious in the sand.

Kirill Basin, the 40-year-old primary challenger to Rep. Jill Tokuda in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, faces two counts of first-degree terroristic threatening stemming from the Aug. 1 incident at Keawakapu Beach in South Kihei.

It started with a request to turn the music down. A 61-year-old man asked Basin to lower the volume, and Basin, police say, replied by implying he had a firearm and threatening to shoot the man's wife.

That was the point a bystander stepped in.

Footage circulating online shows the congressional candidate advancing aggressively toward a group of beachgoers before stepping back and declaring, "I told him if he wants to go to the hospital, come here."

Basin next confronted the man directly and swung a beach chair that failed to connect. A single return punch sent him sprawling unconscious onto the sand as the man stated, "Watch your fucking mouth."

Rather than remain down, Basin rose again, cautioned the man about facing "jail," and then rushed forward while yelling, "Come on, bitch!"

It was after the altercation, police say, that the knife came out. Basin allegedly armed himself and threatened multiple people before throwing the blade into the ocean. Lucky Kama, the bystander who has since spoken publicly, described it as a five-inch switchblade and said he found it and turned it over to officers.

"He ended up pulling the knife out on me after the altercation and that was obviously a game changer when I knew he was off," Kama said.

Basin's attorney flatly denies any weapon existed. "There's no evidence in any of these videos that have been circulated tremendously that he ever had a knife in his possession. He never had a firearm in his possession," Brandon Segal said. "These are just allegations. My client has a presumption of innocence."

Basin appeared in a Wailuku courtroom in handcuffs Tuesday. A judge kept bail at $1 million - an amount Segal called "outrageous" - and the court recommended Basin undergo a mental health assessment.

The beach episode is not his first brush with the charge. On May 29, Basin allegedly entered a county building in Wailuku while brandishing a firearm and got into a verbal altercation with county employees; police said additional charges from that incident remained under review. Court records show a history of arrests for assault and property damage.

Several people have taken out temporary restraining orders against him. Among them is Maui County Council member Thomas Cook, who said he feared for his own safety and his staff's after Basin disrupted a council meeting in May, becoming "aggressive and confrontational" and threatening violence against police and a council ambassador.

Hawaii's primary is Saturday, Aug. 8.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 10:55

WTI Maintains Losses After Another SPR Drain, Distillate Stocks At 30-Year Seasonal Lows

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:38:38 +0000

WTI Maintains Losses After Another SPR Drain, Distillate Stocks At 30-Year Seasonal Lows

Oil prices have roller-coastered overnight - higher on new Houthie attacks in the Red Sea and now lower on reports that a draft deal approval in imminent.

Up...

A Houthi military spokesperson said the group would escalate attacks on Saudi vessels in the northern Red Sea — the latest workaround for the kingdom’s exports to avoid the perilous Bab al-Mandab Strait off Yemen’s coast to the south. Exports from the Red Sea have become a vital lifeline for Saudi Arabia since the Iran war choked off shipping from the Persian Gulf.

Down...

Axios reported the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim, 60-day accord to reopen the waterway, with Washington aiming for an announcement later Wednesday. The proposal would involve no tolls or fees, with inbound vessels using a northern lane, and outbound traffic a southern one.

But in the short-term, and especially in light of the recent decline in refined product prices, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (which API reported a crude build and diesel draw).

API

Crude +2.7mm (-2.1mm exp)
Cushing +2.4mm
Gasoline +200k
Distillates -1.2mm

DOE

Crude +2.48mm (-2.1mm exp)
Cushing +2.36mm - biggest build since March
Gasoline -1.64mm
Distillates -3.47mm

After last week's huge crude draw, this week saw a modest (2.48mm) build in inventories while Cushing stocks soared 2.36mm barrels (the most since March). Products saw sizable draws...

The Trump admin drained another 2.84mm barrels (smallest since the start of the war) from the SPR last week, making a total decline of 110mm barrels since the start of the war...

Cushing stocks rose very marginally off 'tank bottoms'...

Seasonally, distillate stockpiles are now at their lowest since 1996, driven by a 5.2 million barrel draw on the Gulf Coast. That’s the largest pull on stocks for the region since February 2021.

US Crude production ticked up modestly last week - just shy of record highs...

US refiners are importing the most crude since May of this year as refiners continue to run hard, churning through over 17 million barrels of oil each day.

Bloomberg reports that Gulf Coast crude refinery runs fell but remained at the highest levels for this time of the year. The drop can be partly explained by a blip in operations at the Marathon Garyville refinery. The Louisiana facility shut down its 283,000-barrel-a-day crude unit and a vacuum distillation unit last week. The units were restarted on Monday.

Meanwhile, crude exports are holding below 4 million barrels a day, far from the nearly 6.5 million daily barrels earlier this year as the Iran war disrupted global supply.

WTI is lower and maintaining the decline after the official inventory data...

Even if a short-term deal to normalize commercial shipping is reached, however, it might still fail to end the war or resolve Trump’s concerns about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

“It’s still very unclear who is negotiating with whom and what could come out of this agreement,” said Hamad Hussain, a climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

“As we’ve seen before, these deals can very easily collapse. That’s obviously a risk we’ll see persist, even after a deal may be announced.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that the Houthis remain a source of concern for shipowners. People familiar with the matter said this week that Saudi Arabia had held talks with the militants through Omani mediators in an effort to prevent the conflict from widening. They said the leading OPEC member is continuing to prepare military options should negotiations fail.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 10:38

We've Been Here Before

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:15:00 +0000

We've Been Here Before

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Phil Connors has woken up to another instance of the same day. The US, Iran and Oman are said to be close to a new deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reports that the US aims for an announcement today. So, Brent futures dropped to $79/barrel and equity markets rallied further, for the S&P 500 to set a fresh record high.

The reported deal could just as well have been written a couple of weeks ago. Axios prints that the deal includes an inbound shipping route through Iranian waters and outbound shipping via the Oman side, while parties work to clear mines from the middle of the strait. No tolls or fees would be charged for the 60-day period covered by this deal. That all looks very similar to the previous deal – that was torpedoed by renewed attacks on ships.

That wasn’t the only “agreement” in recent weeks that proved untenable (or completely non-existent). Will the groundhog see its shadow again today, or will the deal really hold this time?

Even if this deal isn’t immediately sunk by a drone or missile strike, there is a long and risky road ahead. Negotiations are currently clearly focused on preventing new escalation, and the temporary deal does not offer permanent solutions for the key sticking points.

For example, Reuters sources report that disagreement over transit fees after these 60 days persists. But that’s not the surprising part. Regional outlets suggest that the disagreement is over the amount charged. They claim that Iran demands a 7% fee, with exemptions for Chinese and Russian ships, whereas the US proposed 5%.

If this is even remotely true, that would mark a big shift from the US’ original stance that freedom of navigation is incompatible with any fees. Geopolitically, it would mark an even bigger defeat for the US. If the US cannot restore the status of the Strait of Hormuz, then surely Washington cannot expect to extract concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme.

So, President Trump may have to pick between a deal on Iran’s terms or escalating. That, in turn, suggests it could be matter of time before Trump expresses his frustration with the negotiations again, and we may be in for another few weeks of winter.

As we note in our Monthly Outlook yesterday, the danger is not repeatedly reliving the same trading day – in fact, that would make life a lot easier. The danger is that the cycle eventually breaks and the script changes. I would add that it may in part be up to traders whether that happens. As Phil realizes that he is reliving the same day over and over, he changes his behaviour – some days to the point of recklessness.

Notwithstanding the decline in Brent, diesel and petrol prices remain high enough for governments to extend support measures. The Italian government announced an extension of the diesel tax cut through August 25, and Prime Minister Meloni said that the country would consider further financial aid if fuel prices continue to rise.

High electricity prices add to the cost burden. The hot weather drives up demand for electricity while the drought forces Italy to substitute gas generation for hydropower (and various European countries have also temporarily shutdown nuclear power plants due to high cooling water temperatures.)

Accordingly, the Italian government has requested Brussels for leeway for its budget deficit today. EU rules include escape clauses for spending on defence and energy. Rome has indicated that it intends to use the full 0.3% allowance for energy measures and has requested 0.9% leeway for defence spending.

Elsewhere, the White House is reportedly drafting an import ban on Chinese transceivers, which are used to transmit data between servers within datacentres.

Slowing the ascent of Chinese AI and related sectors may be part of the rationale. Chinese manufacturers dominate the market for these fibre-optics transceivers; its AI models are competing with American models; and China’s chip manufacturing is also improving.

On top of supply chain security and protection for the domestic industry, cybersecurity may be another reason for this ban. The news follows a report from the House Committee that Chinese telecommunications companies remain connected to US datacentres, even though the FCC banned these companies from connecting directly to US networks. Experts warn that these components could potentially allow China to exfiltrate data or disrupt services.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 10:15

US Services Surveys Signal Rebound In Growth In July, But...

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:05:54 +0000

US Services Surveys Signal Rebound In Growth In July, But...

Following the mixed picture from yesterday's Manufacturing surveys (ISM 4 year high, S&P Global 3 mo low driven by the bifurcated 'AI vs The Rest' economy), this morning's Services sector surveys were 'expected' to show the opposite (ISM down, S&P Global up) all in the face of fading hard data.

S&P Global US Services PMI jumped from 51.2 (final June) to 53.6 (prelim July) to 54.6 (final July) - the highest since Oct 2025
ISM US Services PMI rose from 54.0 to 54.1 (less than expected 54.5).

Source: Bloomberg

That was S&P Global's Services PMI's biggest monthly jump since May 2024...

Under the hood, S&P Global data shows that growth in new work strengthened to a 19-month high, while business confidence regarding activity over the coming 12 months was the strongest since last November.

Private sector employment rose for the first time since April.

But, input price inflation accelerated to the highest since November 2022, pushing composite selling prices up at the quickest pace in exactly one year.

But, the ISM Survey showed considerably differences with employment data tumbling back into contraction (below expectations), pries picking up (more than expected), but new orders rising more than expected...

Prices Paid 70.3, Exp 65.0
Employment 47.4, Exp. 51.2
New Orders 57.2, Exp. 55.9

A somewhat stagflationary signal...

“The final July PMI has come in stronger than the earlier flash estimate, signaling an encouraging acceleration in economic growth at the start of the third quarter," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The Composite PMI points to GDP rising at an annualized rate of 2.3%, following a 1.5% increase indicated for the second quarter.

Business optimism has meanwhile climbed to its highest since last November, but Williamson warns:

“Some caution is needed in interpreting these improvements, as the stronger performance partly reflected temporary factors. We note that the biggest improvement in demand in July was reported among consumer-facing service providers, spending on which surged at a rate not seen for over four years linked to the FIFA World Cup and US Independence Day events.

More importantly, businesses benefited in early July from a tailwind of reduced geopolitical uncertainty and lower oil prices."

But, with hostilities in the Gulf escalating as the month progressed, the geopolitical environment is now likely once again acting more as a headwind to growth again while exacerbating already elevated price pressures.

...unless, of course, an actual deal is reached.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 10:05

US Telecoms Slide On Starlink Mobile Threat; Bernstein Sees It As A "Jab, But No Knockout Yet"

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0000

US Telecoms Slide On Starlink Mobile Threat; Bernstein Sees It As A "Jab, But No Knockout Yet"

U.S. telecom stocks fell in premarket trading after SpaceX, during its first earnings call as a publicly traded company on Tuesday evening, outlined its vision for Starlink to challenge Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T.

This was the market reaction to discussions surrounding @Starlink Mobile during the SpaceX Earnings Call.

The big three telecom giants fell. The same thing happened when SpaceX acquired spectrum last year. https://t.co/4FfvFQdOTB pic.twitter.com/tAG7ywTxY7
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) August 4, 2026

SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell told investors about its future impact on big telecom: "Roughly, between them, $600 billion a year. I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers. Our service will be better. We will eliminate dead zones leveraging the satellites in orbit. It will be better during any natural disaster. I'm quite excited about Starlink Mobile."

For readers, the emergence of Starlink Mobile and Musk taking on the big three U.S. wireless operators- Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile - is nothing new.

Elon going for the phone after all

SpaceX Plans New Starlink Mobile Service for US Consumers: FT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 26, 2026

One of the clearest signals was SpaceX's $17 billion deal for EchoStar wireless spectrum last year, followed by a recent trademark filing for "Starlink Mobile."

Our note from June:

Musk's Starlink Plots To Become A Mobile Carrier; TD Cowen Sees Possible T-Mobile Buyout

For more color on Starlink Mobile and its implications for US telecom operators, Bernstein analysts titled their latest note "US Telecom: Starlink Jabs... No Knockout Yet," offering clients a clearer view of what may come next.

US Telecom stocks traded lower in after-hours trading following SpaceX's Q2 results and earnings call (covered by Harned), with Telecom investor attention focused on management's comments regarding Starlink's BB and wireless ambitions. While much of what was said was not new, the call offered clearer articulation of SpaceX's long-term vision and the various building blocks underpinning it. Management reiterated those ambitions at a time when Starlink is scaling subs, enterprise revenue, spectrum holdings, and satellite capacity simultaneously, making their comments more interesting.

To us, the incremental takeaway was not that Starlink is suddenly becoming a threat to broadband and wireless incumbents. Rather, it was a reminder that SpaceX continues to invest toward that outcome, and that the debate could remain an overhang on the sector for years rather than quarters.

What was said? More than a jab.

On broadband, management's central message remains unchanged: a major capacity and performance inflection is coming with V3 satellites. They are roughly an order of magnitude more capable than V2 satellites in orbit today and that SpaceX expects to launch roughly an order of magnitude more of them, implying a roughly 100x increase in delivered bandwidth over time. Management repeatedly described V3 as a step-function increase in Starlink's addressable opportunity and revenue potential.

The company also continued to emphasize the growing importance of enterprise and government customers. Management noted that the segment has the potential to eventually match or exceed the consumer business in terms of revenue, and highlighted continued traction in aviation, government contracts, and enterprise connectivity, areas that generally carry higher revenue quality and stronger economics.

On wireless, management outlined a vision that extends well beyond the D2D services currently being introduced with carrier partners. The strategy appears to consist of four components: (1) satellite-based D2D coverage; (2) recently acquired 65MHz of spectrum from EchoStar; (3) Some form of terrestrial radio infrastructure; and (4) a distributed small-cell architecture leveraging installed Starlink CPEs. While each component is insufficient, the collective strategy is... interesting.

Our view: BB, yes. Wireless? Not so fast.

We continue to view Starlink BB as a credible and growing long-term competitive threat to incumbent operators, particularly at the lower-end of the market where "good enough" BB is often sufficient. In our view, that risk remains higher for FWA and value-oriented BB subs, segments where Cable operators generally have greater exposure (vs. Fiber). We can debate the extent of the potential impact, but the overhang will continue as Starlink continues to expand its capacity and price their products more competitively. As capacity expands and operating leverage grows, the company should become increasingly capable of competing aggressively on price while simultaneously improving service quality. The rapid growth of higher-value enterprise and government revenues coupled with global scale only reinforces that advantage.

Wireless is where our view diverges somewhat from the market reaction. We continue to see D2D satellite service, whether offered by Starlink or others, primarily as a complementary service to incumbent nationwide cellular networks rather than a substitute for them in the foreseeable future. The fundamental use case remains coverage enhancement, not replacement. D2D has yet to solve the indoor unlink challenge. While additional spectrum may improve capacity and performance, it does not eliminate the fundamental physics associated with transmitting from a handheld device to a satellite, particularly indoors.

Likewise, the distributed small-cell concept described on the call is intriguing, but we remain skeptical regarding practical deployment. Such a network would require a dense concentration of Starlink installations in precisely the areas where consumers live, work, and travel: urban cores, suburbs, and major transportation corridors. In many respects, the concept resembles prior visions of a facilities-based wireless network leveraging a broad Wi-Fi APs. Interesting in theory, but considerably more difficult in practice.

For now, we continue to believe Starlink BB represents the more immediate and credible long-term competitive risk. While Starlink wireless ambitions will likely remain an overhang on the sector, we do not believe Starlink Mobile is poised to take meaningful share from incumbent wireless operators anytime soon.

Professional subscribers can read more on SpaceX, Starlink, and Musk here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 10:00

Armed Man Named 'Jeanine' Arrested At Trump's California Golf Course Ahead Of President's Visit

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 13:40:00 +0000

Armed Man Named 'Jeanine' Arrested At Trump's California Golf Course Ahead Of President's Visit

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A California man carrying ammunition and with a gun in his car was arrested Sunday at President Donald Trump’s Los Angeles-area golf course after authorities say he was observed walking through the grounds, taking photographs as well as video, and appearing to monitor security preparations two days before a scheduled fundraiser there that will feature the president.

The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department announced the arrest Tuesday as Trump prepared to land in Los Angeles for a Republican National Committee fundraising dinner at the Trump National Golf Course. The event will take place in the coastal suburb of Rancho Palos Verdes, just south of Los Angeles.

Deputies said Jeanine John Taele, 38, of Downey was carrying a 16-round magazine with ammunition in his pocket when they contacted him. A loaded pistol was recovered from his car, which had been parked on the golf course’s property.

He was arrested on suspicion of carrying a concealed firearm and possessing prohibited ammunition. Authorities also said he had already been under investigation by the El Segundo Police Department in an unrelated robbery case from last year.

Taele’s bail has been set at $250,000. He faces possible charges related to a large-capacity magazine, short-barreled rifle/shotgun, and the 2025 robbery.

Detectives assigned to the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force obtained and executed a search warrant Monday at Taele’s residence, where they recovered a range of items that included firearms, magazines, ammunition, body armor and notebooks containing what the sheriff’s department called “concerning statements.”

The department highlighted that there is “no credible threat to our communities.”

Trump has owned the Rancho Palos Verdes property for years. The course has held political and private events in the past.

Plainclothes federal agents first reported the suspicious individual on the golf course Sunday afternoon, and deputies from the Lomita Station responded. They made contact with Taele, and discovered the ammunition and the loaded firearm.

The totality of the circumstances—the photography and video activity, and the weapons—led to the detention and charges.

According to the sheriff’s department, agents saw Taele walking through the property apparently focused on security-related activities taking place ahead of Trump’s visit. They have yet to describe the writings in the notebooks. They also have not revealed whether Taele knew of the president’s forthcoming visit. Trump is also scheduled to stop in Nevada on the trip.

Trump properties have in the past been the scene of at least one Trump assassination plot. In a separate 2025 case, a jury found a man guilty of attempting to assassinate Trump at his Florida country club.

A federal judge on Feb. 4 sentenced Ryan Routh to life in prison for attempting in 2024 to assassinate Trump, who was at the time running for president. Routh was also sentenced to seven years behind bars on a gun charge and ordered to pay a $500 fine.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 09:40

Abbott Orders Pause On Texas Data Center Approvals Pending Audit

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 13:15:00 +0000

Abbott Orders Pause On Texas Data Center Approvals Pending Audit

Texas Governor Greg Abbott just ordered a pause on approving new data center projects via the state's grid interconnection process over concerns that a surge in electricity demand could threaten reliability amid growing opposition to the projects.

The timing couldn't be worse - as Texas is on the cusp of becoming one of the world's largest hubs for data-centers, with Reuters citing industry forecasts that it could surpass Virginia by 2030 thanks to abundant land, energy, and a business-friendly environment.

In a letter to the Public Utility Commission of Texas and grid operator ERCOT sent Monday, Abbott directed the agencies to conduct an audit of all planned data centers seeking grid connections before any more facilities are allowed to move forward.

ERCOT is currently reviewing roughly 474 gigawatts of proposed new electricity demand, more than five times the state's record peak load, the governor said, adding that about 90% of the requests are from data centers. -Reuters

Under Abbott's directive, developers will now need to provide 'more info on power demand, water use, tax incentives, ownership, and efforts to mitigate local impacts'

As POWER Magazine noted earlier (serious inside baseball below)...

Abbott has directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to conduct a comprehensive audit of every data center advancing through the state’s interconnection queue, warning that projects that fail to disclose ownership, financial, water, and community-impact information could be denied grid access.

The directive, issued in an Aug. 3 letter to PUCT Chairman Thomas Gleeson and ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas, arrives as the ERCOT large-load interconnection queue has surged to 474 GW—of which approximately 90% is data centers, according to testimony ERCOT delivered on July 29 to the Texas Senate.

“That is more than five times Texas’ record peak electricity demand for ERCOT,” Abbott wrote in his letter, referencing an all-time hourly peak of 91,089 MW that ERCOT set on July 22, 2026. “That unprecedented load growth could endanger the reliability and stability of the Texas electric grid.”

The audit is tied directly to non-compliance with existing state law, Abbott wrote. “The failure of some data centers to comply with the PUC’s survey measuring water and power usage under the General Appropriations Act makes this necessary,” he wrote. “Failure to fully comply with that law hinders your ability to make fully informed decisions.”

“Our top priority is to protect Texans’ safety and quality of life,” Abbott said. “Any project that fails to comply with the requirements set forth by the PUCT and ERCOT, and by state law, must be denied connection to the Texas grid. Simply put, Texans must come first.”

Large-Load Interconnection Requests. ERCOT was tracking approximately 474.7 GW of large-load interconnection requests as of June 2026, including 420.8 GW, or 90.2% of the total, identified as data centers. The chart also distinguishes projects by development status, including requests with no studies submitted, projects under ERCOT review, and loads that have met more advanced interconnection requirements. Source: Electric Reliability Council of Texas, “ERCOT Update,” presentation by ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce, July 29, 2026.

Second Intervention Amid SB 6 Rulemaking

Abbott’s directive arrives as the second intervention in less than two months, even as the PUCT is developing rulemaking to implement Senate Bill 6 (SB 6)—the statute Gov. Abbott signed in June 2025 that overhauls how large-load customers of 75 MW or more interconnect to the ERCOT grid.

Essentially, SB 6 amends the Public Utility Regulatory Act (PURA) to direct the PUCT to establish interconnection standards for large loads at a 75 MW threshold, requires each applicant to disclose whether it is pursuing substantially similar interconnection requests elsewhere in Texas and to disclose any on-site backup generation capable of serving at least 50% of the facility’s demand, and requires financial commitments and site control before ERCOT will study a project.

The statute also authorizes ERCOT, once the PUCT defines emergency criteria, to instruct qualifying large loads with dedicated behind-the-meter backup generation to curtail net consumption during grid emergencies after ERCOT has exhausted market services other than frequency response. Separately, SB 6 amends PURA to require transmission service providers to curtail non-critical new large loads energized after Dec. 31, 2025 during firm load-shed events, and to govern net-metering arrangements between new large loads and generation resources that were registered with ERCOT before Sept. 1, 2025. Finally, the law directs the PUCT to reexamine wholesale transmission cost allocation and to require new large loads to contribute to interconnection cost recovery. SB 6 took effect immediately on June 20, 2025, and requires PUCT implementation by Dec. 31, 2026.

The PUCT is executing SB 6 across five dedicated rulemakings, two of which are already complete. In February 2026, the commission adopted 16 TAC §25.370, which sets minimum standards for the information a utility must submit before ERCOT will include a proposed large load in its forecast. And in March 2026, the commission adopted 16 TAC §25.205, which requires PUCT approval before a new large load can be net-metered with any generation resource that was already registered with ERCOT before Sept. 1, 2025.

Then on June 10, 2026, Abbott issued his first intervention. In a letter to Gleeson and Vegas, the governor issued three directives to the two agencies: to ensure that data-center interconnections result in reduced residential electric bills, to require data centers to pay for all of their electric infrastructure costs so that no residential ratepayer is burdened by them, and to review existing PUCT and ERCOT authority to identify further consumer safeguards.

Abbott set two deadlines. The two agencies had to submit a joint memorandum by July 17 summarizing actions already taken, identifying statutory limitations, and recommending legislation for the 2027 session. In addition, the PUCT had to initiate action to reduce residential ratepayer transmission costs by July 31.

Abbott also pledged to pursue six items with the legislature next session: codifying that data centers pay their own infrastructure costs, requiring that data centers add to Texas’ electric capacity rather than only to its demand, mandating water-efficient technologies such as closed-loop cooling systems for new builds, requiring large data centers to annually report electricity and water usage to the PUCT, repealing sales-tax exemptions and other incentives for data centers, and requiring data centers to reduce impacts on neighbors through setbacks, noise-reduction technology, and similar measures. The directive, effectively, asked the PUCT to sharpen the rulemakings still in progress.

Eight days after Abbott’s letter, on June 18, the PUCT approved ERCOT’s Batch Study framework, built through Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR1325 and Planning Guide Revision Request PGRR145. The framework groups qualified large-load projects of 75 MW and above into a single interconnection study, and requires each applicant to post financial security of $50,000/MW by July 10, 2026, to remain eligible.

Testifying at a July 29 Texas Senate hearing, ERCOT’s Vegas said the framework is designed to deliver three outputs to each qualified project: an annual megawatt allocation from 2028 through 2032, transparency on interconnection and upgrade costs, and a coordinated transmission plan identifying the upgrades required to serve additional load. Approximately 205 GW of large-load requests are eligible for inclusion in Batch Zero based on existing studies, according to a preliminary ERCOT overview—65 GW as base load, 114 GW as allocated load, and 25 GW awaiting a final base-or-allocated determination.

For now, ERCOT plans to issue classifications by Aug. 7, complete the ensuing dispute, security-reconciliation, and data-correction process by Sept. 1, and begin the Batch Zero interconnection study no later than Sept. 2. Study results are scheduled for April 9, 2027, followed by interconnection agreements and final confirmation of capacity allocations by June 8, 2027. Projects excluded from Batch Zero—because they cannot post financial security or otherwise meet eligibility criteria—will be considered in a subsequent round that ERCOT and stakeholders have referred to as Batch One, though its start date and criteria are still being developed.

On July 17, Gleeson sent Abbott a written response developed in consultation with ERCOT, filed at the PUCT Interchange under Project 58317. The letter documents four actions the two agencies have already taken—the two adopted rules, the May 2026 transmission-cost evaluation, and the June 18 approval of PGRR 145—and identifies three rulemakings in progress: interconnection standards in Project 58481, a demand-management reliability service in Project 58482, and a follow-on transmission-cost recovery rulemaking in Project 58000. Gleeson told Abbott the commission will consider a final Project 58481 rule “later this summer.”

On July 24, Abbott released Gleeson’s letter along with three legislative recommendations for the 2027 session: expand the Lone Star Infrastructure Protection Act to cover large computational loads, require data centers to register with both the PUCT and ERCOT, and clarify the PUCT’s authority to impose reliability requirements - including direct ERCOT-to-load curtailment instructions - on large computational customers. On July 30, 2026, the PUCT advanced Project 58482 to Proposal for Publication, with a Sept. 4 comment deadline. The commission’s SB 6-mandated evaluation of transmission cost recovery had already produced a staff draft on May 4, 2026, before the June 10 directive; the follow-on Project 58000 rulemaking must be completed by the December 2026 statutory deadline.

The core interconnection-standards rulemaking in Project 58481—the rule that will set financial security, study fees, and site-control requirements for every large load requesting interconnection—remains in scoping.

Abbott’s Audit Goes Beyond Batch Zero Screening

Batch Zero, notably, already imposes several commercial-readiness gates. Applicants must submit qualifying studies, technical and dynamic models, commissioning plans, attestations, and financial security. ERCOT will also verify supporting evidence from a sample of applicants, including purchase orders for long-lead equipment, real-estate and land-use agreements, end-user agreements, and construction contracts. Projects that cannot demonstrate eligibility will be disqualified.

But Abbott’s Aug. 3 directive appears to extend that scrutiny by ordering a review of every large-load request and seeking disclosures covering ownership, water use, infrastructure needs, and community effects. Whereas Batch Zero is principally designed to determine whether projects are sufficiently advanced and technically prepared to enter the interconnection study, the new directive adds a broader examination of who is behind the projects and how they could affect surrounding communities.

During the July 29 Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce hearing, data center representatives generally supported stronger qualification and cost-recovery requirements, though they differed over whether Batch Zero’s existing screens would work as intended.

Chris Matos, who leads Google’s energy market development in Texas, said the hyperscaler had urged ERCOT and the PUCT to develop an interconnection process that is “both rigorous and fair,” including financial commitments calibrated to “hold existing ratepayers harmless for stranded costs.” He cautioned regulators, however, to “avoid retroactive financial penalties that could inadvertently stall mature and already advanced development.”

Matos noted Google had contracted for more than 7.8 GW of new grid-connected generation and capacity in ERCOT ahead of its energy needs. Matos said Google had committed “$30 million in energy impact funding to scale and accelerate energy efficiency initiatives.” Google operates established data center campuses in Midlothian and Red Oak and in November 2025 announced a $40 billion Texas investment program through 2027. As POWER reported in June, that buildout now includes the Meitner Energy Center in Gray and Roberts counties, a more-than-1-GW complex that will pair a Google data center with new wind, solar, battery storage, and on-site gas-fired generation. The facility will use air cooling instead of evaporative cooling, eliminating the cooling-tower water withdrawals typically associated with large data centers and limiting water use to domestic purposes.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) likewise endorsed requirements intended to keep large-load costs from shifting to other customers. Ray Fakhoury, an AWS energy policy manager, said the company wanted to ensure that the cost of developing its infrastructure “is not passed on to others” and committed to paying its “full cost of service.” AWS, which does not yet operate data centers in Texas but is evaluating investments in the state, also supported collateral that could be drawn when projects drop out after infrastructure has been planned or built. Fakhoury, notably, called for a broader package that includes capacity reallocation, exit fees, defined contract terms, and load-ramp requirements.

However, Compass Data Centers offered a sharper critique of the process. Cliff Pompe, the company’s vice president of power and emissions, said the queue was “being distorted from both directions,” with “ghost and transom loads being given allocation while real projects are kept out.” He also suggested “a lack of requisite criteria and inadequate prerequisite criteria” was allowing speculators to create false demand.

Compass operates a campus in Red Oak where it has invested more than $100 million in grid infrastructure, Pompe noted. In the weeks before the July 10 Batch Zero security deadline, Pompe said Compass was personally pitched more than 14 sites totaling over 15 GW by speculators who needed the company to front roughly $790 million in security deposits, which they could not post themselves. Some proposals claimed power densities two to four times the roughly 1.5 MW per acre that Pompe said legitimate hyperscale facilities rarely exceed. They were “basically impossible to construct,” he told state senators, because the available real estate could not physically accommodate the requested capacity.

Compass’s own second Red Oak project, filed with its transmission provider in May 2024, was excluded from Batch Zero. Pompe said the provider did not submit the project to ERCOT until March 2026, “nearly two years later,” even though Compass had engaged directly with ERCOT and participated in the stakeholder process throughout, supplying additional evidence of project maturity, including enhanced site-control documentation, site surveys, and $6.5 million in deposits. “We were told these requests were to demonstrate the seriousness of our project, which we were happy to do,” Pompe said. “We understood the rules proposed by ERCOT for Batch Zero were to ensure legitimate and mature projects were provided allocation. Unfortunately, as we sit today, that is not what ended up happening.”

Pompe said Compass learned the week before the July 29 hearing that the project had been excluded. Its transmission provider also told the company it was stopping work on the required dynamic-stability study while awaiting further ERCOT guidance for Batch One. ERCOT created a good-cause exemption that same day for projects that had substantially met Batch Zero’s requirements, but eligibility for the exemption required a completed transmission study. “That makes a lot of sense,” Pompe said. “But because our project had not had that study completed, we could not apply for this exemption.”

The problem, he stressed, was not the study requirement itself, but the absence of a firm deadline for the transmission provider to complete it. “The fact that our study isn’t complete does not make sense,” Pompe said. Without a firm completion date, Compass faces “real risk of this project finding itself in the same position next year during Batch One—excluded, having done everything we can and everything we were asked to do.”

Queue Scrutiny Carries Wider Power-Market Consequences

Determining which large-load projects are real is also central to decisions confronting the rest of the Texas power sector. The load that survives ERCOT’s screening will shape reliability assessments, scarcity pricing, transmission development, power-purchase negotiations, and decisions to build or retain generation. At the July 29 hearing, power-market participants warned that errors in either direction could prove costly.

Large-Load Interconnection Requests. ERCOT was tracking approximately 474.7 GW of large-load interconnection requests as of June 2026, including 420.8 GW—90.2% of the total—identified as data centers. The chart also distinguishes projects by development status, including requests with no studies submitted, projects under ERCOT review, and loads that have met more advanced interconnection requirements. Courtesy: Electric Reliability Council of Texas, “ERCOT Update,” presentation by ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce, July 29, 2026.

As Jeff McDonald, director of the ERCOT Independent Market Monitor and vice president at Potomac Economics, cautioned, even ERCOT’s revised midterm load forecast remains uncertain. McDonald credited ERCOT and the PUCT with bringing the forecast into “a much more reasonable range” by incorporating additional real-world constraints into the modeling. But some of its largest variables remain difficult to model.

“The AI business model and the AI revenue model in particular is still sort of in its infancy compared to other industries,” he told senators. He pointed to rising prices from major AI providers, public reports that some large users have directed employees to scale back AI use, local resistance to data-center development, and normal business cycles as factors that could suppress actual construction. ERCOT’s projection, he said, “could be considered an upper bound,” while the capacity ultimately installed and placed into commercial operation “might be considerably lower than that.”

Julia Harvey, representing Texas Electric Cooperatives, warned that even partial realization could alter ERCOT’s supply balance and wholesale prices. “Those dynamics could change quite significantly if even a fraction of the load currently forecast materializes,” she said. ERCOT could face a supply deficit in both its reliability assessments and actual operations, leaving the system dependent on large-load curtailments to preserve reliability.

While Senate Bill 6 provides mechanisms for those curtailments, Harvey warned that the associated price adjustments could produce high prices “with some frequency” if ERCOT adds more load than it can serve. She also cautioned against interpreting a modeled reliability deficiency as requiring enough new capacity to serve all projected large-load demand without curtailment. Large incremental additions “don’t fit as well in the conventional one-event-in-10-years framework,” she said, because “by design, the curtailments will happen more frequently than that.” Applying the conventional standard without accounting for those operating characteristics could impose unnecessary resource-adequacy costs on cooperative customers, she said.

The uncertainty also affects investment decisions. Walt Baum, representing Powering Texans and Texas Competitive Power Advocates, said greater clarity from Batch Zero would give generators more confidence that prospective customers are genuine. “When we get Batch Zero out there and know who it’s going to be, that is going to help spur new development because we’re going to know that these projects are real,” he said. That clarity, Baum added, could support new long-term power purchase agreements and new generation construction.

Bill Barnes, senior director of regulatory affairs at NRG Energy, said Batch Zero had already shown that financial security by itself was not enough to distinguish credible projects. The initial assumption, Barnes said, was that the queue contained applicants seeking a free option and that imposing financial requirements would clear them out. “And that is not what has happened,” he said. Instead, the process revealed a secondary market in interconnection positions and rewarded access to capital, Barnes said.

“The people with the most money are the ones that won,” he said, including applicants that partnered with other entities to secure a position. “There are going to have to be additional indicia of maturity besides just money going forward,” Barnes concluded, because money “did not have the culling effect that we thought it was going to.”

NRG also urged ERCOT to use the batch process to favor projects that improve system conditions. Barnes said transmission capacity should prioritize large loads that bring new generation or can operate flexibly as controllable resources.

Texas is already using public incentives to expand dispatchable supply through the Texas Energy Fund. Launched in 2024, the fund provides grants and low-interest loans for the construction, maintenance, and modernization of electric facilities. Its In-ERCOT Generation Loan Program offers 20-year loans at a fixed 3% interest rate for projects adding at least 100 MW of new dispatchable capacity, with financing capped at 60% of project costs. As of June 24, 2026, the program had committed $3.65 billion to eight projects totaling 4,994 MW, including three NRG plants and projects sponsored by Constellation, Competitive Power Ventures, Vistra, Rayburn Country Electric Cooperative, and the Kerrville Public Utility Board. Completion-bonus grants had brought total ERCOT-supported capacity to 5,516 MW.

Barnes said NRG is developing three gas-fired plants totaling 1,500 MW through the fund, including two combustion-turbine projects and one combined-cycle plant. The first of those projects, a peaker, was commissioned earlier this summer at NRG’s T.H. Wharton site in northwest Houston. Cedar Bayou and Greens Bayou are targeted for 2028. Barnes argued that the interconnection process could similarly reward large loads designed to support the grid.

“We have this opportunity here where we can provide a carrot, not a mandate, but a carrot and incentive,” he said. “If you want to build a large load in Texas, if you’re going to design your site in a way that is more reliable for the consumers of Texas, then you should have an incentive. That means maybe you get access to the transmission capacity before everyone else.”

—Sonal C. Patel is a POWER senior editor (@sonalcpatel, @POWERmagazine).

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 09:15

Treasury Refunding: No Change To Auction Sizes As Bessent Deepens Reliance On Short-Term Debt

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 13:06:52 +0000

Treasury Refunding: No Change To Auction Sizes As Bessent Deepens Reliance On Short-Term Debt

For yet another quarter, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding offered no surprises, which considering the state of the US bond market is probably not a bad thing.

In its 8:30am ET report, the US Treasury retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in note and bond auction sizes well into 2027 even as federal borrowing needs balloon to stratospheric levels (and will explode once the AI bubble bursts leading to catastrophic consequences for corporate bonds).

As for next week, the Treasury will hold $125 billion of refunding auctions, in line with estimates, which will be made up of:

$58 billion of 3-year notes on Aug. 11
$42 billion of 10-year notes on Aug. 12
$25 billion of 30-year bonds on Aug. 13

The refunding will raise new cash of approximately $28.7 billion, the Treasury said.

Based on current projections, officials expect to maintain current sales amounts for nominal coupon securities and floating rate notes "for at least the next several quarters" - the same market-soothing language which the department has used in its quarterly debt-issuance strategy statement ever since the Janet Yellen "Activist Treasury Issuance" days of early 2024.

On bills, “based on current forecasts, Treasury expects to maintain current auction sizes in benchmark bills in the coming weeks”; and in "late-August, Treasury anticipates issuing a short-dated cash management bill."

The language and schedule is in line with the expectations of many dealers, who predicted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his team would refrain from tweaks given that longer-dated yields have climbed in recent months. Benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest since he took office last week, making them all the costlier for the government.

The Treasury also retained its suggestion from May that it’s biased toward the shorter end of the yield curve for any future increase in coupon auctions. It said it’s monitoring growing bill demand and continuing to evaluate the situation “with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles.”

Of course, the lack of boosting coupon debt means that the Treasury’s reliance on Bills and other short-term securities that mature in up to a year, will deepen even more, in a strategy dealers have dubbed “T-bill and chill.”

The ratio of bills to outstanding debt is now historically high, however, running the risk of debt-servicing costs becoming sensitive to shocks — at a time traders are betting the Federal Reserve will be forced to tighten monetary policy in coming months.

The problem is that current auction sizes won’t leave the Treasury in position to raise fresh cash as time goes on, which means the T-bill share of debt will climb inexorably if issuance isn’t changed. Borrowing needs, meantime, continue to swell. The Treasury on Monday stepped up its estimate for borrowing for the current quarter to $739 billion, up $68 billion from May, mainly due to lower projected cash flows. Meanwhile, total US debt will hit $40 trillion in two weeks.

According to Bloomberg, some strategists have linked Bessent’s reluctance to alter forward guidance to the looming November congressional elections, and preferring to avoid any debt-issuance tweak that risked sending yields higher.

Of course, the longer the Treasury holds off on signaling a change, the more dramatic and sudden the shift will need to be when it happens. But for now there is a market meltup to engineer until the midterms, at which point all bets are off.

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in the past has advised the Treasury to seek an average of 20% for the share of T-bills, but officials haven’t offered their own clear guidance on where their tolerance level may lie. For now, demand remains robust for bills, from money market funds to the Fed - which has been recycling maturing mortgage securities into bills.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 09:06

"This Is Going To Surprise Some People": Leading Biden COVID-19 Figure Embraces The Lab Leak Theory

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:55:00 +0000

"This Is Going To Surprise Some People": Leading Biden COVID-19 Figure Embraces The Lab Leak Theory

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Biden White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha this weekend became the latest denier of the lab theory to do a 180-degree turn. During the interview with CNN's Dana Bash, Jha admitted that he now believes that the most likely explanation is a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As pundits and politicians quietly admit that the natural mutation theory is not as credible, the courageous scientists who were blacklisted for years remain persona non grata in higher education.

Jha stated:

"This is going to surprise some people. You know, when I went into the White House, my view was, 'This was almost surely a natural outbreak, maybe a lab leak.' Based on information I learned and based on information I've seen, I have come to conclude that it is more likely to have been a lab leak."

I commend Jha for publicly addressing his change. Indeed, everyone in academia, myself included, has had their views evolve.

Former Biden White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator, Dr. Ashish Jha, tells Dana Bash, "When I went into the White House, my view was this was almost surely a natural outbreak, maybe a lab leak. Based on information I learned and based on information I've seen, I have come to… pic.twitter.com/bovB2nUbq4
— State of the Union (@CNNSOTU) August 2, 2026

What should not evolve is the willingness of the scientists and academics to accept dissenting viewpoints. One of my long-standing complaints against figures like Anthony Fauci is that they held prominent positions during the pandemic, but said nothing about the cancel campaigns directed against those experts who disagreed with their views on issues like the origins of COVID-19.

As I discuss in my new book, "The Indispensable Right," the result is that we never really had a national debate on many of these issues and the massive social and economic costs that resulted.

I spoke at the University of Chicago with Bhattacharya and other dissenting scientists in the front row a couple of years ago. After the event, I asked them how many had been welcomed back to their faculties or associations since the recognition of some of their positions.

They all said that they were still treated as pariahs for challenging the groupthink culture.

For years, figures like Bhattacharya (who was recently awarded the prestigious Intellectual Freedom Award by the American Academy of Sciences and Letters) were hounded and marginalized.

Others opposed Bhattacharya's right to offer his scientific views, even under oath. For example, in one hearing, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) expressed disgust that Bhattacharya was even allowed to testify as "a purveyor of COVID-19 misinformation."

Los Angeles Times columnist Michael Hiltzik decried an event associated with Bhattacharya, writing that "we're living in an upside-down world" because Stanford University allowed dissenting scientists to speak at a scientific forum. Hiltzik also wrote a column titled "The COVID lab leak claim isn't just an attack on science, but a threat to public health."

As recently as last year, Hiltzik continued to attack the lab theory.

Bhattacharya's experience is not unique. When scientists argued that the virus's origin was likely the Chinese research lab in Wuhan, they were mobbed by the media. That position was denounced by the Washington Post as a "debunked" coronavirus "conspiracy theory."

The Washington Post denounced Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark) when he raised the theory for "repeat[ing] a fringe theory suggesting that the ongoing spread of a coronavirus is connected to research in the disease-ravaged epicenter of Wuhan, China."

After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) mentioned the lab theory, Post Fact Checker Glenn Kessler mocked him: "I fear @tedcruz missed the scientific animation in the video that shows how it is virtually impossible for this virus to jump from the lab. Or the many interviews with actual scientists. We deal in facts, and viewers can judge for themselves."

The New York Times Science and Health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli called any mention of the lab theory "racist."

At NPR, an endless stream of segments ran dismissing the lab leak notion, painting it as a debunked conspiracy theory of the far right, including one story titled "Scientists Debunk Lab Accident Theory of Pandemic Emergence."

I consider it valuable to have voices like Hultzik's that still challenge the lab theory - just as I thought it was valuable to have lab theorists voice their views. The difference is that critics of the lab theory are not being canceled, but continue to be celebrated for their prior work. To the contrary, figures like Scott Atlas have shown how those educators who helped lead the mob against dissenters still hold positions of power. These figures should not be canceled for holding opposing views, but their conduct in silencing others should be reviewed.

Despite the vindication of scientists on their opposition to policies on the use of surgical masks, the closure of schools, and other issues, there have not been any repercussions for those who enforced the orthodoxy and intolerance during the pandemic in higher education.

The fact is that most are now willing to admit that the lab theory is probably correct, but they are unwilling to forgive those who forced them into that admission.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:55

"Hiring Patterns Are Changing": ADP Reports Weakest Job Gains In 6 Months, But...

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:31:01 +0000

"Hiring Patterns Are Changing": ADP Reports Weakest Job Gains In 6 Months, But...

Following a weaker than expected JOLTS report, but better than expected ISM employment data, ADP reports today (ahead of Friday's payrolls report) that the US economy added only 44k jobs in July (below the 65k expected and the lowest since January) after a revised 95k increase in the prior month...

With the Goods-producing side of the economy losing 3k jobs...

"Typical hiring patterns, meanwhile, are changing as employers react to shifting macro-economic conditions," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP

Even with the moderation in hiring, the report showed wage growth for those who switched jobs picked up to the strongest pace in nearly a year.

"Job-changers are highly sensitive to real-time economic conditions, and their rapid pay growth implies supply constraints in parts of the labor market," added Richardson.

The figures point to a stable labor market supported by robust business and consumer demand. If confirmed in the government’s official monthly jobs report on Friday, the recent employment trend suggests Fed officials can keep their focus on still-elevated inflation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:31

Futures Hit New Record High On Strong Earnings Following Historic Call Buying Frenzy

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:20:49 +0000

Futures Hit New Record High On Strong Earnings Following Historic Call Buying Frenzy

S&P 500 futures are up following yesterday’s first ATH since June; both tech and small caps are lagging, pointing to another potential broadening. A jump in US tech stocks is holding too, with Nasdaq-100 contracts rising after a 3.3% surge in the session before, powered by semiconductor stocks and blowout Palantir earnings. S&P futures are up 0.4%, just shy of 7800, a new all time high, while Nasdaq futures underperform, rising 0.2%, as results from AMD and SpaceX failed to impress, sending shares in both lower in after-hours trading. AMD’s forecast didn’t meet high expectations, while SpaceX investors focused on the hikes being made to its AI spending. Semis/memory are lower with some likely profit-taking after yesterday’s surge; NVDA/GOOG are leading Mag7 names higher as it appears that squeeze portion of this rally has room left to run, as JPM says keep an eye on IGV as the squeeze may turn into a narrative shift flipping one of the lightest owned sub-sectors into a leader in the near-term. Germany’s Infineon, up 69% this year, picks up the baton for European semiconductor sector results Wednesday. Tuesday gains have fed into a bounce for the Kospi and Nikkei 225 in Asia. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are also up 0.4%. The mood in stocks and in bonds has been bolstered by oil prices continuing to ease off, with Brent slipping below $79/bbl before rising above $80 as Houthi rebels threaten Saudi shipping north of the Red Sea and the UKMTO reported a ship sunk off Yemen after it was attacked by an unmanned craft. Qatar said a proposal had been drafted and both American and Iranian officials sounded hopeful about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury yields are dipping, while yields are down in Japan, Australia and New Zealand, the latter after weak quarterly jobs data. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is softer, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona leading gains among major currencies and the kiwi the laggard. Asia FX is green across the board.Commodities are bid, led by Precious Metals; WTI seeing support around $75/bbl though that could change following the expected formal announcement of a new deal between the US and Iran. Today's US economic data calendar includes July ADP employment change (8:15am), July final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and July ISM services index (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cook (4:05pm) and Daly (8:35pm)

In premarket trading, Nvidia leads Mag 7 stocks higher, poised to extend gains for a fifth consecutive session, after SPCX announced an exclusive partnership to build its future AI infrastructure entirely on NVIDIA’s platforms. Meanwhile, Tesla is underperforming the cohort as SpaceX’s debut earnings after IPO disappoints. Other Mag 7 names are mostly higher (Nvidia +1.8%, Alphabet +1.2%, Apple +0.9%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.2%, Tesla -1.2%)

AMD (AMD) falls 7% after the chipmaker’s third-quarter sales forecast underwhelmed investors expecting a stronger performance amid healthy demand.
Arista Networks (ANET) jumps 12% after the cloud-networking company forecast better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter. Analysts note that demand remains very healthy.
Booking (BKNG) is up 7% after the online travel agency reported gross bookings for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company said healthy global travel trends continued into the third quarter despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
CVS Health (CVS) rises 3% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
Digital Turbine (APPS) soars 27% after the mobile network company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year that topped the average analyst estimate and first-quarter results beat the consensus.
Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) gains 6% after the animal health firm boosted its revenue and adjusted profit guidance for the full year, following better-than-expected results for the second quarter.
Everus Construction (ECG) climbs 9% postmarket after raising its year revenue and Ebitda outlook. Second-quarter results topped expectations, with revenue growing 34% from the year-ago period.
Flutter (FLUT), the parent of the FanDuel, falls 5% after the company cut its US revenue guidance for the full year and appointed President Dan Taylor as chief executive officer from Oct. 1.
Kratos (KTOS) gains 10% after the defense contractor boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, topping the average analyst estimate.
Match Group (MTCH) drops 8% after providing a revenue forecast for the current quarter that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates, suggesting its dating sites still need to attract more younger users.
New York Times (NYT) falls 8% after the news company reported second-quarter results.
Pinterest (PINS) drops 9% after the social media platform’s revenue outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors.
Shopify (SHOP) climbs 28% after the e-commerce platform operator reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
SpaceX (SPCX) falls 11% after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, overshadowing an inaugural quarterly report that broadly surpassed Wall Street forecast.

Other corporate news includes Paramount Skydance posting a surprise surge in profits with cost-cutting from its merger last year continuing to pay off. Lucid is targeting $1.4 billion in cash savings this year, as the EV maker’s new CEO says “tough medicine” is needed to fix the troubled firm.

Overnight, the micro highlight was SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, which could have gone... better: shares are 10% lower in premarket trading after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its AI business, dampening a report that broadly surpassed forecasts. Overall capex jumped to about $18.4 billion in the quarter, more than double its $7.8 billion revenue, and the company said the next two quarters of spending will be similar. Meanwhile, Musk lived up to his reputation for making bold predictions, including that SpaceX would reach a $100 billion annual run-rate revenue by year’s end, and $1 trillion annual revenues by 2030. SpaceX also fleshed out its plans to take on AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile by complementing its satellite-based internet service with land-based infrastructure (telecom stocks tumbled).

The next catalyst for tech - and probably the entire market - comes in the form of results from memory chip makers Sandisk and Western Digital later. Through Monday’s close, Sandisk has been the single best performing S&P 500 constituent year-to-date, and the 13th largest points contributor, while Western Digital also ranks highly on both measures.

Last month’s heavy deleveraging means that fast-money actors like hedge funds have now covered a lot of their shorts, leaving the setup looking increasingly positive. At the same time, broadening has continued globally and a strong earnings season has accelerated the sector rotation that was already underway. One way to see this week's euphoria: on Tuesday we saw the highest ever amount of S&P call futures bought.

The recent correction in tech stocks has brought valuations to more reasonable levels, helping to restore investor confidence after a bout of volatility triggered losses at several hedge funds last month. The MSCI World Semiconductor Index had tumbled more than 20% from its peak in June, driven by worries around the sustainability of AI spending boom and progress in China’s advanced chipmaking. The gauge has rebounded 15% since then.

“Albeit there was some disappointment on the micro level, the numbers are still confirming that the overarching macro trend is intact as they confirm the durability of the compute build-out,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany. “Thus, tech as a whole can benefit even if single players suffer.”

Geopolitical tensions are easing as President Donald Trump said the US had “good” discussions with Iran. Qatar said a proposal has been drafted and both American and Iranian officials sounded hopeful about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “Sentiment seems to have improved,” though it is likely due to a better risk backdrop than a fundamental change, said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital. “Lower oil, easing geopolitical tensions and stronger tech sentiment are all helping.”

Brent crude reversed some of Tuesday’s 5.3% plunge after Yemen’s Houthi militant group threatened to escalate attacks on Saudi vessels in the northern Red Sea. Still, the commodity held around $80 a barrel after Axios reported that Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to resume oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s easing inflation fears and upward pressure on Treasury yields.

“As oil prices come back to the $75-$80 dollar range, markets can focus on fundamentals, which remain robust,” said Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies International. “Earnings have been solid and there is still a lot of liquidity out there. Positioning is very clean, which sets a nice backdrop for a further rally in risky assets.”

In other assets, Fed’s Schmid suggested higher rates are needed to achieve the Fed’s price stability goals. Bloomberg Economics notes the divergence in global monetary policy outlooks due to energy price volatility, showing “the fog global central banks face as they try to limit the inflationary consequences of the Middle East conflict.” Meanwhile, the cost of hedging against a rise in Treasury yields has surged since last week.

In politics, Trump administration officials are moving toward another temporary extension of a waiver of a century-old shipping law that made it easier to move oil, fuel and fertilizer around the US. The White House has told top US AI companies that open-weight models being developed in China won’t be subject to government testing under the Trump administration’s new AI safety framework. And a potential US ban on Chinese data center components risks straining the countries’ fragile trade truce.

In hedge funds, the losses that forced Situational Awareness to sell stocks at deep discounts appear to be the result of highly concentrated positions in crowded trades, rather than a concerted effort by short-sellers, according to S3 Partners. Whale Rock’s flagship hedge fund had a 21.7% drop in July, erasing about half of its gains for the year.

The upside in oil sapped broader risk sentiment with the Stoxx 600 erasing an earlier advance that took it to a record high.Mining and retail shares leading gains while banks and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

Sandoz shares gain as much as 8.6%, the most since Feb. 25, after the Swiss maker of generic drugs posted strong sales in the US and at its biosimilars unit
Glencore rallied as much as 5.4% in London trading, the most since January, after reporting 1H adjusted Ebitda that beat analyst estimates due to surging prices for its key commodities
Heineken shares gain as much as 3.1% after the Dutch brewer posted a strong set of second-quarter figures, with analysts highlighting outperformance in Asia-Pacific, led by Vietnam
Nexans shares jumped as much as 7.4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight, saying that the French cable manufacturer would be able to achieve its 2028 targets while M&A could bring further upside
Fresenius jumps as much as 9.3%, the most since October 2022, after the German healthcare group lifted its full-year earnings forecast, following strong second-quarter performances at its hospitals and Kabi drugs business
Infineon shares drop as much as 5.9% after the chipmaker’s 4Q margin outlook missed estimates, with the firm citing temporary operational and inventory-related effects in the green industrial power segment
Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 4.6% in Copenhagen after the Danish drugmaker’s new Wegovy weight-loss pill failed to top analysts’ expectations
Verisure’s stock slid as much as 7.4% to €9.826 after a shareholder sold a stake for roughly €198.4 million in an overnight placing
OTP Bank shares drop as much as 1.5% after the Hungarian lender reported total income for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
Wolters Kluwer shares fall as much as 5.8% after the Dutch information services company reported revenue for the first half-year that met the average analyst estimate

Earlier, Asian stocks rose to the highest in a month, led by a rally in heavyweight chipmakers as sentiment improved following prospects of an interim US-Iran deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 2.1%, boosted by TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung. Tech-heavy markets including Korea, Taiwan and Japan climbed, while Australian shares advanced to an all-time high. A guage of Asian semiconductor stocks rose 4.5%, tracking overnight gains in US peers. SK Hynix got an extra boost amid speculation the Korean firm may soon unveil buybacks and other details of a broader shareholder return plan. Elsewhere, optical stocks in China fell, while those in Japan, India and South Korea rose, after Reuters reported that the US is drafting a ban on imports of some Chinese data center components to protect AI infrastructure.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The kiwi is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback after the New Zealand jobless rate rose more than expected.

In rates, treasuries are steady with front-end lagging rest of the curve slightly, following muted price action during Asia session and London morning. Oil prices erased declines after Yemen’s Houthi militant group’s latest threat against Middle East shipping. US session includes quarterly refunding announcement and July ISM services gauge. Treasury front-end yields are about 1bp cheaper, tracking gains in oil, while rest of US curve is little changed, with bunds and gilts also broadly steady. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am New York time is expected to leave in place guidance on steady auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, according to bond dealers. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. AbbVie’s $10b deal headlined a $17.3b calendar Tuesday. Issuers paid about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 5.2 times covered. Two issuers continue to monitor the market, both with size aspirations exceeding AbbVie’s transaction

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up about 0.5% near session highs after erasing declines after Yemen’s Houthi militant group said it would attack Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea. Precious metals jump with spot silver up over 3%.

Today's US economic data calendar includes July ADP employment change (8:15am), July final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and July ISM services index (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Cook (4:05pm) and Daly (8:35pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

The US, Iran and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today. Donald Trump said talks with Iran are “moving along very nicely.” BBG
Donald Trump’s administration has paid out about $100bn in tariff refunds since the US Supreme Court struck down its use of emergency powers to levy duties on its trading partners earlier this year. The sum, which is 60 per cent of the $165bn collected from the president’s “liberation day” tariffs, was reported by US customs officials to judges at the US Court of International Trade on Tuesday. FT
White House is excluding open-models from its framework to test advanced AI capabilities: Axios.
China’s services activity expanded at its weakest pace in nearly two years, a private survey showed, with businesses turning more cautious about an economy that’s increasingly showing signs of further weakness. BBG
Shares of SK Hynix Inc. advanced, lifted by an overnight rally in US chipmakers and speculation that the Korean firm may soon unveil buybacks and other details of a broader shareholder return plan. BBG
China tightened its exports controls on drones to the US and sanctioned multiple American companies in a series of retaliatory measures against Washington’s widening tech curbs. BBG
UK firms continued to cut jobs in July, extending the labor market slump to its longest since the global financial crisis, a PMI survey showed. Businesses cited cost-cutting and greater use of AI. BBG
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem isn’t only about energy, and bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy. WSJ
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed is projected to win Michigan’s Democratic US Senate primary, according to NBC. He’ll face Republican Mike Rogers in November in a contest critical to Democrats’ hopes of regaining the Senate. BBG
OpenAI and Anthropic AI models carried out “potentially harmful” actions, including hacking a website, UK government safety tests found. Separately, the White House was said to have told US AI firms that open-weight models developed by their Chinese rivals won’t be subject to government testing. BBG
V-Shaped: Nasdaq now up ~945 bps in just 4 sessions (since last Thursday), punching back above its 50-dma to the upside. This 4-day move stacks up with how Tech has traded out of (or during) other notable market “events” over the last 20 years (GFC, COVID, ’22 Hiking Cyle, Liberation Day, et al).: Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the rally on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Dow printed fresh record highs, although the Nasdaq was the outperformer on tech strength, while yields and oil prices declined amid hopes of a Hormuz deal. ASX 200 traded in the green, with the upside led by outperformance in miners, materials and tech, which picked up the slack from the weakness in energy, utilities and the top-weighted financial sector. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 66,000 level amid the tech strength, with SoftBank shares among the biggest gainers, and are up by a double-digit percentage owing to its heavy AI exposure. KOSPI rallied amid the tech momentum and with earnings results also providing tailwinds for stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark flat amid weakness in the energy sector, while the mainland conformed to the upbeat mood despite disappointing RatingDog Services PMI data, although Chinese optical stocks were pressured as the US mulls an import ban.

Top Asian News

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the uptick in Japan's inflation was the result of weak yen and energy prices, as energy prices come down and we no longer have excess yen weakness, will contribute to inflation coming down.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will not rely on new debt issuance to fill tax revenue shortages, will review budget spending and revenue to fill tax revenue shortages.

European bourses continue to climb, with gains broadly seen across the board. Focus will be on the potential announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the data front, EZ and UK final PMIs printed a tick higher. For the EZ figure, S&P highlighted that the rise in the headline output index indicates quarterly GDP growth of 0.3%. For the ECB, S&P Global stated that, with the renewed flare-ups in the Middle East leading to upside risks to inflation, it should put policymakers in a more hawkish stance. However, with the PMI price gauges dropping markedly, it may provide a window for a delay of further hikes. Sectors point to a positive bias. Basic Resources top the sector pile, with Retail and Utilities rounding out the sector outperformers. To the downside is Consumer Products & Services, with Banks and Real Estate completing the bottom 3 laggards.

Top European News

Italian Economy Minister Giorgetti said they will be asking the EU to increase energy spending by 0.6% and defence spending by 0.9% of GDP. The minister added that they will be presenting to parliament a formal request to increase the deficit between September and October, following on from EU talks.

USD lacks direction with DXY just below 100.00 as the positive risk environment is weighed against a bounce in energy benchmarks; Brent +USD 1/bbl. Several scheduled releases today, including ISM services and ADP jobs ahead of Friday's NFP, while the Treasury is slated to release its QRA; focus is on whether guidance retains language that coupon and FRN auction sizes will hold “for at least the next several quarters.” Further on that, JPM flags a USD 3.7tln four-year funding gap, and argues the wording should be tightened, but expects the Treasury to hold fire ahead of November’s midterms to avoid unsettling long-end rates. On the speaker slate, Fed's Cook is set to speak.
GBP is the marginal outperformer despite a Times article overnight suggesting the government would look to exploit a Reeves-era fiscal rules loophole to increase government borrowing by as much as GBP 9bln. Perhaps a factor soothing markets is how both Burnham and Healey have previously expressed willingness to utilise flexibility in the fiscal rules. Elsewhere, UK Final PMIs were confirmed in expansion though revised modestly lower. GBP/USD trades within a narrow 1.3340-1.3470 range, with all significant DMAs between 1.3350 and 1.3400, likely to provide support; 1.3500 will likely prove resistance.
EUR conforms to price action across the G10 space and is essentially unchanged against the Buck in quiet trade. ING today notes how the heatwave, impacting water levels and nuclear power, means the single currency has been unable to capitalise on the stronger-than-expected data over the past week. Today, EZ PMIs, like those seen across the channel, did not deviate enough from prelim figures to spark a EUR reaction. EUR/USD flat with 50 and 100 DMAs either side at 1.1476 and 1.1570, respectively.
NZD is the clear underperformer after the unemployment rate firmed at a faster rate than was expected. Kiwi was pressured immediately after the data and continued lower throughout the morning, surpassing recent 0.5860 support and potentially on track to test 0.5850.

Fixed Income

A firmer start for the space, led higher by the initial downside in energy given the overnight geopolitical updates and the potential for a Hormuz deal to arise in the next 24hrs or so. Albeit, reporting this morning has been somewhat less constructive, and as such crude has reverted back into the green, and fixed has waned from best.
Gilts briefly eclipsed 88.00 by six ticks and with gains of 44 at best. Upside a function of the initial energy pressure, catch-up to the overnight moves in fixed and on domestic fiscal reporting. On the latter, The Times scooped that Ministers are looking at utilising a Reeves-era adjustment to the fiscal rules, when the former Chancellor made it so the government can count spending on equity/infrastructure as assets, which can then be offset against borrowing costs. Such an approach could allow GBP 9bln/yr to be raised, without PM Burnham or Chancellor Healey having to adjust the rules themselves.
Bunds also bid, but off best. Peaked at 125.51 in APAC trade, firmer by near 50 ticks at the time, but has since essentially halved that as energy moves. For Germany, specifics have been and are scheduled to be relatively light aside from Green supply due shortly. Elsewhere, from the bloc, EZ June PPI was cooler-than-expected M/M but in-line Y/Y; no move to the series.
USTs in-fitting, modestly firmer in narrow 108-26 to 109-01 confines. A busy docket ahead, in addition to potential geopolitical updates. Firstly, ADP prints before Friday’s NFP, seen at 70k (prev. 98k), vs 91k (prev. 57k) for the BLS series. Thereafter, the Chicago indicator hits alongside the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, focus is on the language around coupon and FRN sizes. Next up, we have the US Final PMI and ISM Services read for July, before potential commentary from Fed’s Cook (voter).

Commodities

In terms of Middle Eastern geopolitics, developments suggest momentum towards a diplomatic agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although negotiations remain ongoing. US President Trump said in a Fox News interview that the Strait could reopen very soon, describing discussions with Iran as productive after an all-day round of negotiations and stating there is still ample time to reach a deal, while warning that Iran would face severe consequences if it withdrew from talks again. He later added that negotiations were progressing well and that more clarity would emerge within 48 hours.
Regarding to the potential Hormuz agreement, Axios reported that the US is targeting a Wednesday announcement of a Hormuz agreement under which inbound vessels would transit through a northern lane in Iranian waters and outbound vessels through a southern lane in Omani waters, with no transit fees during an initial 60-day period and joint efforts to clear naval mines from the median lane within 30 days before negotiating a permanent arrangement between Oman and Iran.
Energy futures have tilted higher during the European morning following a subdued APAC session, with gains seen after the Yemeni Houthis announced that they have targeted a Saudi tanker in the North of the Red Sea. This essentially amounts to an expansion of the Houthi blockade that threatens to completely choke off Saudi Arabia's alternative energy export routes. Prices thereafter saw modest downticks on reports that the Pakistan PM Sharif and Army Chief Munir will visit Saudi Arabia tomorrow. Meanwhile, upticks were seen once again following reports that Israeli strikes were reported in Southern Lebanon, which is seen as a headwind for US-Iran negotiations. WTI Sep’26 resides towards the top end of a USD 74.24-76.47/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 75.11-82.33/bbl range) while Brent Oct’26 trades in a USD 78.11-80.80/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 78.67-86.33/bbl parameter). Dutch TTF is softer intraday but in choppy trade, printing on either side of the EUR 55/MWh mark in a current ~EUR 54.50-55.75/MWh range.
Metals are firmer as DXY price action is once again somewhat contained despite the volatility across energy. Spot gold trades towards the top end of a USD 4,065-4,180/oz range after topping the 22nd July high (USD 4,166/oz) to match the 7th July peak (USD 4,180/oz). Spot silver has mounted USD 60/oz once again to trade towards the upper end of a USD 59.40-61.90/oz range at the time of writing.
Base metals also cheer the relatively stable dollar against the backdrop of energy volatility. 3M LME copper holds above USD 14k/t in a USD 13,974.45- 14,104.00/t range at the time of writing.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.7mln (exp. -2.0mln), Distillates -1.2mln (exp. -0.1mln), Gasoline +0.2mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +2.4mln.
US Energy Secretary Wright said the extension of Jones act waiver is likely and has resulted in lower energy prices in California and the US East Coast.
Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) said they have decided to temporarily suspend production of iron ore products from its mining and pelletising operations in Ukraine and are currently able to supply its European customers from existing inventory stockpiles.

Trade/Tariffs

US President Trump's administration is considering blocking Chinese imports of optical transceivers from China.
China's MOFCOM said it will impose countermeasures on six US entities and will take countermeasures against US compliance-testing firms.
Chinese embassy in the US said Washington should stop threatening Chinese companies and slammed the Trump administration's plan to ban certain electronic equipment used in data centres.

Central banks

Fed's Schmid (2028 voter) said tight monetary policies are needed to get inflation back to the 2% target, and that inflation is currently too high and is worrisome. The current stance of Fed policy is not restrictive and the recent relief on energy prices may prove temporary. Schmid added that the economy is performing well overall and growth is resilient, while welcoming the recent inflation data. However, it is too soon to say if it is easing. He ended by stating that the job market appears to be roughly in balance, and AI investment is driving up inflation, which the Fed should not ignore.
RBI keeps Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, via unanimous decision, while policy stance is kept at neutral. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand, while there is a need for greater clarity on inflation before taking policy action. Sees FY27 real GDP growth of 6.7% (prev. 6.6%) and FY27 CPI at 5.0% (prev. 5.1%).
BoJ Minutes from the June Meeting stated most members share the view economy is moving in line with the baseline scenario, and there were risks underlying inflation may overshoot the BoJ's 2% target. Members agreed it was appropriate for the BoJ to continue raising rates. Few members said the BoJ must maintain guidance that the BoJ will keep rising rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts.

Geopolitics: Middle East

An Iranian source familiar with the direct Iran-Oman talks has told CBS News the discussions between Tehran and Muscat are now focused largely on the mechanics of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and that broad outlines have largely been agreed. Under the current proposal, ships entering the Strait would use the channel closest to Iran, with Iran coordinating inbound traffic, while vessels leaving the strait would use the Omani side, with Muscat managing outbound traffic. The proposal also includes a "service fee," with the revenue split between Iran and Oman. According to the source, the broad outlines have largely been agreed upon, with the remaining discussions focused on implementation and timing. Axios reported something similar, in which the US is nearing a Hormuz deal. Axios added that no tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period and the parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.
US President Trump said in a Fox News interview that the Strait is going to be open very soon and that they are having very good discussions with Iran, while he warned if Iran backs out again, they'll be hit very hard. Trump also commented that they had a very good day with Iran and had an all-day negotiation today, while he also said they have plenty of time to reach an agreement with Iran. Furthermore, Trump separately commented that they are moving along very nicely regarding Iran and we will know in 48 hours on Iran.
US Central Command said that the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the international waterway.
Israeli media citing unnamed Israeli sources reported that US President Trump and his advisers are seeking a deal with Iran at any cost, according to Al Jazeera.
Israel, Lebanon and the US are discussing which country or countries will be responsible for verifying Hezbollah's removal from pilot zones, with Italy being one of the options, according to three sources familiar with the talks cited by i24's Stein.
Israeli strikes reported in Southern Lebanon, Tasnim reported.
Pakistani sources said Pakistan PM Sharif and Army Chief Munir will visit Saudi Arabia tomorrow, Al Hadath reported.
Yemeni Houthis said they attacked a vessel in the Red Sea, with the spokesman adding they attacked a Saudi oil tanker off the Yanbu with missiles.
Saudi Arabia reportedly attacked Yemen's capital of Sanaa with explosions heard, according to Fars News Agency.
Saudi official said no talks are taking place between the Saudis and the Houthis via mediators, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

Air attack reported on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, with explosions heard amid reports of a ballistic missile attack.

Geopolitics: Other

North Korea leader Kim's sister criticised Japan's recent test firing of a Tomahawk missile and said they will be forced to add more military options in response to Japan's strengthening of defence capabilities.
US Pentagon is drafting a new US nuclear strategy in case of regional war with China or Russia, NBC sources report.

US Event Calendar

7:00 am: Jul 31 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.4%
8:15 am: Jul ADP Employment Change, est. 65k, prior 98k
9:45 am: Jul F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53.6, prior 53.6
9:45 am: Jul F S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 53.6
10:00 am: Jul ISM Services Index, est. 54.5, prior 54

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As recently as last Friday, investors were debating whether a renewed Middle East energy shock would be the soundtrack of the late summer. By yesterday's close, Brent crude had fallen back below $80/bbl, short-term inflation expectations had moved to multi-month lows, bond yields had continued to retreat, and the S&P 500 (+1.79%) and the Stoxx 600 (+0.73%) had moved to fresh record highs. At the same time, the AI trade continued to regain momentum, with semiconductors enjoying another strong session and investors increasingly willing to lean back into the capex theme that looked under pressure during July's volatility. These themes have held up overnight, with oil and Treasury yields edging lower, while Asian equities are rallying.

The latest catalyst was another day of encouraging headlines around the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar said that a draft proposal had been circulated between the parties, whilst Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that an agreement to reopen shipping flows could be reached “today or tomorrow”. Axios then reported last night that the US is hoping for a Wednesday announcement of an interim deal that would see a temporary 60-day arrangement between Iran and Oman under which Gulf-bound vessels would pass through Iranian waters, whilst vessels leaving the Gulf would be able to travel through Omani waters with no fees being charged during the 60-day period. Similar details were reported earlier by the Wall Street Journal, though both reports leave unclear whether a long-term arrangement between Iran and Oman might then involve charging a toll for using the Strait. And as I write this around 5am LDN time, Trump just told reporters that talks were “moving along very nicely” and “we’ll know in 48 hours”, though he also told Fox News earlier that “they're going to get hit very hard” unless the Strait is open “very soon”.

Markets have seen plenty of false dawns throughout this conflict, so plenty of attention will be on whether a deal is announced imminently and its details. As of now, investors are increasingly pricing a solution, with the most obvious positive reaction coming in energy markets. Brent crude fell another -5.26% to $79.36/bbl yesterday, whilst WTI declined -5.69% to $75.77/bbl. European natural gas futures also fell -2.75% to their lowest level in almost three weeks. Brent is another -0.66% lower this morning. The speed of the reversal has been impressive with Brent now down by more than -10% since Friday.

The associated move in inflation pricing was arguably even more noteworthy. The US 1yr inflation swap fell another -6.4bps to 1.80%, its lowest since 2024, whilst the Eurozone equivalent declined -9.5bps to 2.27%. US 5yr inflation swaps fell -4.8bps to 2.36%. Markets are clearly dismantling a sizeable portion of the near-term inflation premium that had built up as the conflict intensified through July.
Government bonds also continued to benefit. The 10yr Treasury yield fell -6.3bps to 4.61%, and while breakevens led the decline, real yields moved lower too, with the 30yr real yield falling -3.8bps to 2.97%. The Treasury curve is a touch lower again overnight, with 10yr yields down -0.8bps overnight, even as Kansas City Fed President Schmid struck a hawkish tone yesterday evening, saying that “bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy”.

In Europe, bund yields declined -4.5bps to 3.11%, while gilts rallied a further -5.7bps to 4.90%, extending the strong performance seen since oil began reversing lower at the start of the week. Peripheral debt also performed strongly, with 10yr BTP yields falling -7.1bps to 3.86%, with a -15.8bps decline so far this week marking their best two-day run since May.

Importantly however, the bond rally wasn’t fueled by weaker growth. The JOLTS survey for June did show job openings easing to 7.36 million from 7.54 million previously, but most of the survey’s details remained constructive, with hiring picking up, layoffs staying subdued, the quits rate stable at an upwardly revised 2.0% (vs 1.9% expected) and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers little changed at 1.04 (vs. 1.03 prev.). In addition to this steady labour market signal, June durable goods orders were revised up to +0.5% mom (+0.3% exp.) with core capital goods orders rising +1.2% (+0.9% exp).

That combination of lower oil prices, falling inflation expectations and still-resilient US data proved an ideal backdrop for risk assets. The S&P 500 rose +1.79%, closing at an all-time high for the first time in two months. Tech stocks outperformed, with the Nasdaq up +2.59%, though the Mag-7 (+0.73%) underperformed. The AI complex was even stronger, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging +6.55%, its strongest daily gain since March and extending its rise since last Wednesday to +16.58%, its biggest 4-day advance since 2020.

So the rebound in semiconductors continues to gather pace. After enduring a correction of more than -20% during July, investors appear increasingly willing to re-engage with the AI trade. Helping sentiment were Palantir's (+29.45%) strong outlook, reports of Anthropic agreeing a $10bn computing infrastructure deal to meet demand for its models, and Caterpillar (+5.60%) raising sales guidance whilst pushing back on concerns that data-centre demand is slowing. Together, that helped rebuild investor confidence in the broader AI capex cycle after July's turbulence.

Another interesting AI-related development came from the networking space. Reuters reported that the Federal Communications Commission is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers, critical components that allow information to travel through fibre-optic cables inside data centres. The news boosted US optical-networking names, with Marvell Technology up +12.81% and Coherent gaining +12.35%, as investors anticipated a shift in demand towards domestic suppliers. While a niche story on the surface, it is another reminder of how AI supply chains are part of broader strategic competition between the US and China.

A bit of shine came off the tech performance overnight following results from SpaceX and AMD. SpaceX fell by over -7% after-hours after reporting higher AI capex spending, though that decline was smaller than the +9.43% jump in yesterday’s regular session. AMD shares also slid in extended trading as the chipmaker’s Q3 revenue guidance ($13bn vs $12.5bn) came in slightly ahead of consensus but below the more optimistic estimates. This leaves NASDAQ futures (+0.11%) underperforming those on the S&P 500 (+0.32%), but the overall equity mood remains positive overnight.

Optimism is also visible in Asian markets this morning. Across the region, the KOSPI (+4.32%) and the Nikkei (+3.32%) are leading gains. Mainland Chinese stocks are moving higher with the Shanghai Composite (+1.34%) outperforming the CSI 300 (+0.99%), while the Hang Seng (+0.11%) is little changed. The China market performance hasn’t been helped by the RatingDog Services PMI for July, which fell from 54.1 to 50.4 (vs 53.7 expected). That’s its lowest level since September 2024, pointing to still soft domestic demand in China. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.71%) is on course to eclipse its record high reached back on March 2, helped by a strong June household spending print (+0.8% MoM vs +0.2% expected).

Elsewhere, European equity indices continued to push into record territory yesterday. The Stoxx 600 (+0.73%), DAX (+0.77%), CAC (+0.61%) and FTSE MIB (+1.26%) all reached new all-time highs, while the FTSE 100 (+0.20%) is just 0.3% below its own historic peak. So beyond the US, investors are increasingly embracing the combination of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns.
Another market theme worth watching remains the yen. During his CNBC interview yesterday, Bessent said that the US would do "whatever it takes" to support Japan and argued that excessive yen weakness risked broader instability across Asia. He also said that it would be reasonable for the Fed to upsize the FIMA repo facility, a point that our rates strategists have sympathy with (see their take here). In his extensive comments, Bessent also said he believed the BoJ Governor “will do what is needed”. Note that our FX strategists see faster BoJ hikes as necessary for a more sustained recovery in the yen. Following Bessent’s remarks, the yen rallied from intraday lows, though it still finished yesterday’s session -0.36% lower at ¥157.75 per dollar. However, that’s significantly stronger than the roughly ¥163 level seen before last week's intervention efforts. The yen is little changed against the U.S. dollar this morning.

This morning’s minutes from the BoJ’s June policy meeting revealed that several board members expect consumer inflation to receive a notable boost in the second half of the current fiscal year and showed that two of the eight board members advocated for a faster pace of interest rate hikes. The latest Japan wage data this morning is likely to maintain the pressure for BoJ hikes, showing nominal wage growth at +3.4% yoy in June (in line with expectations after a revised +3.3% rise in May), marking the fifth consecutive month of gains above 3% and the longest such streak in 34 years. A more stable wage indicator, which excludes bonuses, overtime payments, and sampling distortions, rose +2.9% for full-time employees (vs +2.7% expected). Real wages increased +1.6%, extending gains to a sixth consecutive month, the longest run since 2021.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the US July ADP report, where our US economists expect employment growth of +60k after +98k previously. We will also get ISM services, UK July new car registrations, France June industrial production, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI. Tomorrow, the Fed’s Cook will also speak. Earnings include Eli Lilly, Walt Disney, CVS Health, eBay, Block, and Global Payments.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:20

Fauci's Time Is Up...

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:05:00 +0000

Fauci's Time Is Up...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Sen. Rand Paul has locked in the date for a committee vote that could finally impose real consequences on Anthony Fauci, the longtime public health official whose pandemic-era decisions reshaped daily life for millions of Americans.

On Thursday, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will vote on a resolution holding Fauci in contempt of Congress after he refused to answer questions under subpoena during last week's hearing.

Paul, the Kentucky Republican who chairs the panel, announced the move today. The resolution authorizes the President of the Senate to certify the committee's report on Fauci's refusal to answer questions pertinent to the inquiry, as required by the subpoena.

HSGAC is voting Thursday to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt. Fauci has a blanket pardon from President Biden for more than a decade's worth of actions, yet he still stonewalled Congress and refused to answer even basic questions. That is pure contempt for accountability. https://t.co/fxupdCWrnK
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) August 4, 2026

In a statement, Paul laid out the sequence plainly: "Dr. Fauci appeared under subpoena and invoked the Fifth Amendment to refuse answering questions. During the hearing, I ruled that the Fifth Amendment did not apply because of the pardon, and that Fauci had waived any remaining privilege by giving opening testimony. I ordered him to answer and warned him about contempt, yet he still refused. That is obstruction of a congressional investigation. The Committee will act accordingly."

The subpoena, issued in July, directed Fauci to testify on the committee's investigation into "risky life sciences research and the origins of the COVID-19 virus." Fauci showed up on July 29, delivered an opening statement, then declined every substantive question by invoking the Fifth Amendment. Estimates of the number of invocations range from more than 100 to 112.

The July 29 hearing itself was a prolonged exercise in refusal. Fauci opened by accusing Paul of an "unhinged obsession" with him and claiming the sole purpose of the session was to trap him into saying something that would land him "behind bars."

From that point forward he answered nothing of consequence. Senators pressed him on gain-of-function research funding, the lab-leak evidence he had privately acknowledged while publicly promoting a natural-origin narrative, lockdown policies, school closures, personal financial awards solicited with federal employees on taxpayer time, and contradictions between his public statements and private diary entries. He declined them all.

Paul told Fauci near the close of the session: "I really did want to hear from Dr. Fauci. I wanted to hear perhaps an apology, perhaps some semblance of being sorry for what happened or that judgment errors were made. We didn't hear any of that."

He then ordered Fauci to answer a specific question about whether he had destroyed any federal records or directed anyone else to do so during the period covered by the pardon. Fauci again cited the Fifth. Paul ruled the privilege unsupported and scheduled the contempt vote.

Even some mainstream legal voices recognized the strategic problem with the strategy. A CNN legal analyst and an NYU law professor noted that the blanket pardon from former President Biden - covering official conduct from January 1, 2014, through January 19 or 20, 2025 - removed the usual criminal jeopardy that justifies a Fifth Amendment claim.

Once immunity is granted, the ordinary expectation is that the witness must testify. Pleading the Fifth under those conditions can itself become grounds for contempt. One analyst observed that the repeated invocations, framed by Fauci's team as protection against "perjury traps," simply raised the obvious question for ordinary viewers: why not just tell the truth?

The contempt vote is not occurring in a vacuum. Paul's committee has spent years examining the paper trail of pandemic decision-making. Emails previously highlighted by the senator show Fauci directing then-NIH Director Francis Collins to "read it, then destroy it" - language Paul has described as a clear violation of federal records law. "That is against the law. You're not allowed to do that in the executive branch," Paul has said of the instruction.

Separate reporting has also focused on research techniques funded under Fauci's NIAID. RFK Jr. has described a method known as seamless ligation, developed with federal support by Ralph Baric and later shared with Chinese researchers including Shi Zhengli. The technique is designed to erase the molecular signatures that would otherwise reveal a virus had been engineered in a laboratory.

"He funded Ralph Baric to develop a technique called seamless ligation. And that is a technique for hiding the engineering project," RFK Jr. has stated. "There is no public health reason for this; it is the opposite of what you would do if you are interested in public health."

Taken together, the pattern is consistent: public messaging that diverged from private knowledge, research choices that complicated origin tracing, instructions that raised records-destruction concerns, and now a categorical refusal to answer questions even after a presidential pardon removed the risk of criminal prosecution for the covered period.

Paul has repeatedly framed the issue as one of basic accountability rather than re-litigating every pandemic decision for its own sake. "Fauci said one thing publicly and another privately. He coordinated to control the narrative. He shaped guidance around politics instead of truth," the senator posted shortly before the resolution was introduced.

He added, "If we don't demand real accountability and reform, nothing stops the next unelected bureaucrat from doing the exact same thing."

The committee vote on Thursday is the next procedural step. If the resolution is approved, it can be referred toward the full Senate and potentially to the Department of Justice. Whether that path produces actual enforcement remains to be determined by the numbers in the Senate and the priorities of the executive branch.

What is already clear is that Fauci's decision to appear under subpoena and then decline every substantive question has now forced the formal contempt process.

Paul's committee is treating the refusal as obstruction of a legitimate congressional investigation into the origins of a virus that killed more than a million Americans and the policies that followed. The vote on Thursday will test whether that obstruction carries institutional consequences.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 08/05/2026 - 08:05