ZeroHedge News

Gulf Oil Is Available Again, But Asian Refiners Balk At Soaring Tanker Rates

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 22:00:00 +0000

Gulf Oil Is Available Again, But Asian Refiners Balk At Soaring Tanker Rates

Iran and the US have a peace deal? check (for 60 days, allegedly).

Strait of Hormuz open? check (for 60 days, allegedly).

Ships transiting freely? check (not really)

Massive build up of Gulf oil desperate to reach Asian refiners? check.

All great news, which means that oil should now flow freely and in huge amounts, right?

Wrong: two of Asia's largest refiners, PetroChina and Indian Oil, failed to secure very large crude carriers to lift Iraqi Basrah crude in late June, Reuters reported, while another Chinese major Sinochem is on the hunt for a ‌tanker.

The inquiries from the state energy firms followed an interim deal between the United States and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. PetroChina had sought a VLCC (which can carry up to 2mm barrels) to load from Iraq's Basrah Oil terminal between June 25 and 30. And while the Chinese major received at least six offers at worldscale points of 650 to 750, these rates were nearly triple those charged before the Iran war broke out in late February. The worldscale measure is used by the shipping industry to calculate freight rates.

"There are tankers available, but the problem is it's too expensive and there is no guarantee you can exit the strait," a PetroChina official said.

Indeed, a quick look at the latest gulf tanker rates shows that while not nearly as bad as when the war broke out, rates on tankers from the Gulf to various Asian destinations have doubled in the past weeks as buyers scramble to secure their shipments. Expect these prices to soar much higher in the coming days.

The punchline: securing supplies from the Gulf will remain complicated despite the peace deal, and not just due to the soaring tanker prices.

"It'll be ‌still ⁠difficult to fix a vessel due to the rate, and I assume that both parties need to agree to some special clause (in the contract for transiting the strait)," the source said.

On Thursday, another Chinese state major, Sinochem, sought a VLCC to load oil in the Gulf between June 20 and 30 for Asia, the shipping sources said. ⁠It was not immediately clear if the company would succeed in finding a vessel.

Remarkably, as this was taking place, India's giant oil company IOC did not receive any offers in a tender last week ⁠seeking a VLCC to lift oil from Iraq on June 22 and 23 and deliver to Paradip port on India's east coast, a Reuters source said.

IOC, India's largest ⁠refiner, subsequently issued a force majeure on the cargo.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 18:00

Pentagon Taps Argonne Spinout To Connect Military Supercomputers With Major Clouds

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:40:00 +0000

Pentagon Taps Argonne Spinout To Connect Military Supercomputers With Major Clouds

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded Parallel Works, an Illinois-based software company spun out of Argonne National Laboratory, a contract to provide a unified platform that connects military supercomputing centers with secure commercial cloud infrastructure.

Representative stock image of a supercomputer. iStock Photos

The contract, granted under the department's High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP), will allow scientists, engineers, and acquisition professionals across the DoD to access both on-premises and cloud-based computing resources through a single interface. The goal is to speed up the development and deployment of high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) workloads used for defense research and operations.

Parallel Works said its ACTIVATE High Security Platform (HSP) will act as the control plane linking Defense Supercomputing Resource Centers (DSRCs) with commercial cloud services. The platform is designed to let users move workloads across environments while maintaining security requirements for sensitive data.

The company said researchers will be able to test and deploy workloads on emerging cloud infrastructure before those capabilities are integrated into the DoD's supercomputing centers.

Connecting Defense Computing

The platform has been approved at Impact Level 5 (IL5), one of the highest security classifications for non-classified DoD cloud environments. According to the company, it is among a small number of software platforms approved to handle export-controlled workloads, including International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI).

The system is intended to address growing demand for computing power driven by AI development, simulation workloads, and digital modernization programs across the military.

"AI-driven warfare and the ramp to digital modernization are demanding far more model-sharing options than legacy infrastructure can provide," said Keith Obenschain, Chief Technology Officer at HPCMP.

The platform offers on-demand access to cloud compute resources, allowing users to avoid traditional queue delays associated with shared supercomputing systems. It also enables organizations to expand computing capacity by distributing workloads across multiple environments and cloud providers.

Parallel Works said users will have access to cloud infrastructure from providers including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle Cloud.

Accelerating Mission Deployment

As part of the contract rollout, the Naval Research Laboratory has already implemented the platform to support weather forecasting workloads.

According to the company, the system automates forecasting workflows while securely coordinating computing resources across defense and cloud environments. The approach is intended to improve reliability, speed up processing, and help redistribute workloads when demand spikes.

"The HPCMP contract allows our platform to support a broad range of mission-critical HPC and AI workloads across the DOD teams," said Matthew Shaxted, CEO of Parallel Works.

The company said the environment can also serve as a secure testing ground for AI development tools and next-generation cloud architectures before they are adopted within the DoD's existing supercomputing infrastructure.

The contract reflects a broader push by the U.S. military to combine traditional supercomputing resources with commercial cloud services as AI models and data-intensive applications continue to increase computing requirements across defense operations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 17:40

Illegal Alien Alleged To Be Ringleader In Terror Plot To Kill "Capitalist Elites" At UFC White House Event

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:20:00 +0000

Illegal Alien Alleged To Be Ringleader In Terror Plot To Kill "Capitalist Elites" At UFC White House Event

Federal prosecutors allege that Abraham Hermosillo Alvarez, a Mexican national who overstayed a B2 visitor visa and was living in Omaha, Nebraska, used the online alias "Shepherd" and was the ringleader of a failed terror attack targeting "billionaires" and "capitalist elites" at UFC Freedom 250 at the White House.

The Department of Homeland Security released a statement on Thursday morning regarding the criminal complaint, filed in the District of Nebraska, charging Alvarez with conspiracy to commit murder and conspiracy to commit an offense against the U.S.

The FBI said the investigation began after local authorities in Ohio responded to concerns about 19-year-old Tycen Proper, whose family reported that he had been stockpiling firearms, ammunition, body armor, and communicating with an online group about "missions" and "recons."

"Alvarez and his co-conspirators face federal charges of conspiracy to commit murder and conspiracy to commit violence on White House grounds. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has lodged a detainer for Alvarez," DHS wrote in a statement.

"This illegal alien from Mexico should never have been allowed in our country. He was the ringleader of a failed terror attack targeting UFC Freedom 250 at the White House," Acting Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis wrote in a statement.

Bis added, "He and his co-conspirators now face charges of conspiracy to commit murder and conspiracy to commit violence on White House grounds. He will face justice and swiftly be removed from our country."

The Department of Justice wrote in the criminal complaint, "It was unclear if Shepherd was involved in these chat messages, but the targeting of US Congressional targets was related to the original plot that PROPER tied to Shepherd."

DHS pointed out, "Alvarez entered the United States on a B2 visitor visa and failed to depart before it expired in December 2001. The Obama Administration granted him Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) in 2014."

The plot pattern appears anti-government, anti-elite, anti-capitalist, conspiratorial, and revolutionary...

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

... with rhetoric not that different from that of prominent far-left influencers that cross paths with socialist and DSA groups.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 17:20

The Judicial Resistance Fails Again

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:00:00 +0000

The Judicial Resistance Fails Again

Authored by Mike McDaniel via AmericanThinker.com,

Do you recall Hannah Dugan? She’s a former Milwaukee County Judge. “Former” because she, with the help of her staff, distracted ICE agents who were present to arrest and deport a violent illegal alien in her court on unrelated charges. They snuck the illegal out of the courthouse.

The agents didn’t disrupt her court. They were waiting until she was done with the illegal, who had been previously deported but reentered the country. They politely informed her of their authority and intentions and were waiting for her disposition of the illegal.

Fortunately, the agents knew what she was doing and captured the illegal after a brief foot chase. Dugan was charged and convicted, though not without substantial support from equally corrupt members of the “judicial resistance” Bar:

Graphic: X Post

Amazingly, that view of judicial immunity didn't hold up and she was removed from the bench, which, considering she was facing a federal felony, seems reasonable.

Dugan appealed, and her appeal was recently denied, which opens the way for her sentencing, which has been on hold. She faces up to five years in prison.

One would think other members of the judicial community would learn from Dugan’s “resistance.”

However, as John Belushi used to quip: “But nooooooooooooo!”

This time, the illegal hiders were in Utah:

Two former Utah court clerks have been arrested and charged after federal prosecutors alleged they used their positions inside a courthouse to help an illegal immigrant avoid a lawful arrest by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A federal indictment unsealed Wednesday charges Jennifer Joma, 27, and Lauren Kelsey Morrow, 26, with conspiracy to transport and harbor illegal aliens, harboring illegal aliens, and obstruction of proceedings before federal agencies. Joma also faces a separate charge of transporting illegal aliens.

The incident occurred on April 9 at the Logan City Municipal Justice Court in Utah, where both women worked as court clerks. An ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officer entered the courthouse to arrest an illegal immigrant who was scheduled to appear for a hearing that day. After entering the courthouse, the officer left the secure area and waited in his car outside for his target to exit before attempting the arrest.

The two court clerks stopped several illegal aliens from leaving the building. Collecting the illegal the ICE agent was there to detain, and the other illegals, they guided them through secure hallways and out the back door of the courthouse, out of view of the ICE agent. In this case, no judge was apparently involved. They shut the door to the judge’s chambers to keep him from seeing what they were doing.

The government was apparently able to reconstruct what happened by viewing courthouse surveillance video:

The Justice Department described the alleged conduct in blunt terms:

“This case is about some state court clerks who abused their position of trust and took the law into their own hands by helping an illegal alien evade a lawful arrest by ICE.”

Federal prosecutors further alleged:

“Acting as self-appointed anti-ICE vigilantes, Lauren Morrow, her co-defendant Joma and others took it upon themselves to obstruct immigration proceedings and the lawful enforcement of United States immigration laws.”

The indictment states that surveillance footage captured the pair after one of the alleged trips through the courthouse. Prosecutors say the women were seen waving and smiling at a security camera, while Morrow allegedly made an obscene gesture toward it. Investigators also allege that Joma later drove three illegal immigrants away from the courthouse before returning to work.

Joma and Morrow resigned after their arrests and are facing up to 25 years in prison. Under the Biden Administration, Dugan, Joma and Morrow would surely have never been charged, but there’s a new sheriff in town:

John Huber, the ex-US Attorney for Utah, said the plot was the first he’s seen in the state.

“This is a time when people are on edge wherever you are on the political spectrum, and this issue of immigration enforcement gets people’s attention,” he told KUTV.

“I think a lesson to be learned here is that federal authorities are serious and that it’s no laughing matter to engage in conduct that rises to the level of a federal felony. This is not a joke.”

Hannah Dugan, Jennifer Joma and Lauren Morrow are presumably realizing that. Whether the rest of the “judicial resistance” will pay attention is anyone’s guess, but finding that people sworn to uphold our system of justice aren’t always above it is encouraging.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 17:00

Multiple Polls Show Warning Signs For Democrats In Upcoming Midterms

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:40:00 +0000

Multiple Polls Show Warning Signs For Democrats In Upcoming Midterms

Democrats have spent months telling anyone who will listen that the midterms are theirs to lose. With President Donald Trump's approval rating in the basement and conditions supposedly ripe for a blue wave, the party is feeling confident it can win both the House and the Senate in November. Polls do seem to suggest they have momentum, but a closer look at the numbers tells a very different story, and the wave that Democrats are banking on may not be coming after all.

The latest NBC News poll does show Democrats with a lead in the national congressional race. On the surface, that sounds like good news for the party. But CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten put that lead in context, and the context is the problem.

"Democrats have an edge, but compared to what we see historically, it's really not that big of a lead," Enten said.

The NBC poll puts Democrats up by five points in the national congressional vote. Five points may sound meaningful until you stack them against what those numbers looked like in actual wave years. In 2018, when Democrats flipped the House, they led by ten points at this stage. In 2006, another Democrat wave year, the lead sat at 11 points.

"It's this type of lead where you say, you know what, Democrats are ahead, but don't count your chickens just quite yet," Enten said.

And this is not a one-poll problem. Enten pointed to a pattern emerging across multiple pollsters, including NBC, Marquette University Law School, and Ipsos. All three tracked the Democrat lead from January and February into May and June, and none of them shows momentum building. NBC dropped a point. Marquette University Law School dropped three points. Ipsos held roughly flat.

"There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not showing the wave you might expect, given where the president's approval rating is," Enten said. "The Democrats hold these leads. But again, you have this group of pollsters that are out there where this lead, simply put, is not matching what you might expect if you were expecting a Democratic wave."

The redistricting wars did not help Democrats at all. Republicans are locked in structural advantages through the redistricting process, which means a five-point national lead may not translate into actually flipping the House.

"Democrats need between a three and four point advantage in the national vote," he said. "You average those polls together. It's right on the border. It is no guarantee. It is far from a guarantee at this point if you believe these pollsters."

That is not exactly the kind of language that inspires confidence in a Democrat war room. And then there are the prediction markets. The Kalshi prediction market gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the House. That sounds strong, but it also means Republicans have a better-than-one-in-five shot at holding on. In the Senate, the GOP still holds the edge.

"Democrats probably take back the House, but it's far from a guarantee," Enten said. "We are not going to get caught, like in past years. We ignore those polls that had those warning signs."

The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear:

There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, & NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years.

Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... & Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting. pic.twitter.com/qPy5CsxFZS
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 15, 2026

Political analysts burned themselves in past cycles by dismissing data that did not fit the expected narrative. The warning signs were there, and they got ignored. Enten is clearly trying not to repeat that mistake, and the data he is looking at right now says the same thing it has been saying for months: this is not shaping up to be the blowout Democrats want... or need.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 16:40

LA City Council Advances Measure To Allow Non-Citizens To Vote In Local Elections

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:20:00 +0000

LA City Council Advances Measure To Allow Non-Citizens To Vote In Local Elections

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

The Los Angeles City Council voted 10-5 to advance a controversial proposal that would allow noncitizens to vote in local elections, including mayoral, city council and school board races.

The New York Post reports that the proposal is part of a sweeping charter reform package headed for the November ballot.

🚨 LA City Council Advances Proposal on Noncitizen Voting for November Ballot

Los Angeles City Council has moved forward on a measure from Councilmember Hugo Soto-Martínez (AI video) that would allow the city to consider noncitizen voting in certain local elections — including… pic.twitter.com/SS7ho6Jskn
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) June 18, 2026

The proposal to allow noncitizens to vote was proposed by Councilman Hugo Soto-Martínez who argues that noncitizens who live, work, pay taxes and raise families in Los Angeles should have a voice in local affairs.

Soto-Martinez said:

“I believe it’s a simple principle that should guide us: If you live in the city, contribute to the city, raise your family in the city, and are impacted by the decisions made in the city, you deserve to have a voice in the city.”

“It just does not make sense to me that someone who moves to Los Angeles for a temporary job has more of a voice than a parent who has been here for decades raising their children through public schools,” Soto-Martinez added.

Opponents warn that the proposal is moving forward before city leaders know whether it can actually be implemented.

Councilwoman Monica Rodriguez raised questions as to how Los Angeles could create a noncitizen voting program when the city’s elections are administered by Los Angeles County.

Rodriguez warned that city leaders may be making promises they cannot keep, saying, “I have apprehension of making false promises that give the suggestion that we’re able to advance something without even further vetting the ability to implement this. I don’t want to pretend that people are going to take away from this that this is going to be available to them, and it’s not, because it’s not been baked out.”

The noncitizen voting measure was part of a package of proposed city charter changes that will be placed before voters on the November 3rd ballot, including a measure that would allow the council to set policy at Los Angeles Police Department.

The City Attorney will now draft language for the proposed ballot measures, which must then be approved by the City Council before going before voters.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 16:20

Supreme Court Rules Feds Can't Disarm You Just For Being A Regular Stoner

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 19:45:00 +0000

Supreme Court Rules Feds Can't Disarm You Just For Being A Regular Stoner

The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that the government's prosecution of a Texas man under 18 U.S.C. §922(g)(3) - the provision barring "unlawful user[s] of" or those "addicted to" any controlled substance from possessing firearms - violated the Second Amendment.

The case, United States v. Hemani, stemmed from an August 2022 FBI search of the family home of Ali Danial Hemani, a dual U.S.-Pakistan citizen who was born in Texas and had a stable job as a project manager at a Dallas-area insurance company. The government suspected Hemani and his family members of activities related to terrorism. During the search, Hemani was cooperative: he surrendered a Glock 9mm pistol he kept in the house, pointed agents to marijuana on the property, and consented to an interview in which he admitted using marijuana about every other day. Agents also found cocaine in his parents' closet; Hemani claimed ownership but stated his mother had hidden it from him and that he had not used any recently.

More than six months later, the government indicted Hemani on a single count, relying solely on his admitted marijuana use and possession of the gun in his home. The indictment did not allege terrorism, drug trafficking, cocaine possession as a basis for the charge, or that Hemani was intoxicated or dangerous at the time he possessed the firearm. He faced up to 15 years in prison and lifetime disarmament.

Hemani fought it in court - arguing the prosecution violated the Second Amendment under the framework established in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen (2022). The district court agreed and dismissed the indictment; the Fifth Circuit affirmed. The government sought certiorari, which the Court granted.

The Court's Holding And Reasoning

Justice Neil Gorsuch, writing for the Court (joined by Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Thomas, Sotomayor, Kavanaugh, Barrett, and Jackson), affirmed the dismissal - and said that Hemani's conduct was presumptively protected by the Second Amendment.

The government's argument was a stretch - citing "habitual drunkard" laws which targeted people who "regularly use intoxicants" for public-safety reasons and operated similarly by restricting liberties.

The Court completely shot that down; agreeing that a "habitual drunkard" generally meant someone intoxicated "to such a degree as to deprive him of his ordinary reasoning faculties" or "incapable of conducting [his] own affairs," "mentally incompetent," or who had "lost the power of self-control." Early American statutes and cases required practical incapacitation. Given the era's "culture of copious drinking" (notable Founders consumed significant amounts daily or at events without being labeled habitual drunkards), the law specifically applied to people too lost in the sauce to function - not regular users. By contrast, the government's interpretation automatically disarms anyone who regularly uses any amount of any controlled substance for a non-prescribed purpose, without showing incapacitation or danger. The Supremes said that this was "difficult to square with the historical record."

Doubts about the government's claimed purpose: Even setting aside the historical mismatches, the Court questioned whether §922(g)(3) as construed even serves to disarm "categorically violent and unusually dangerous" persons. It incorporates the Controlled Substances Act's broad health-and-welfare criteria (not limited to violence risk), and the government's own recent actions - DOJ guidance curtailing marijuana prosecutions, moving some marijuana products from Schedule I to III, widespread state legalization, and data suggesting more adults now report daily/near-daily marijuana use than alcohol - undercut the claim that all regular users are inherently dangerous. Affording the government "broad power to designate any group as dangerous and thereby disqualify its members from having a gun" would risk swallowing the Second Amendment.

The decision is deliberately narrow. It does not:

Address efforts to ban addicts or those presently intoxicated from possessing firearms.
Invalidate other prophylactic laws Congress might enact for users of particular drugs shown to pose special firearm-misuse risks.
Touch §922(g)(1)'s felony-disarmament provision.
Decide whether the government could prevail with individualized proof that a defendant's drug use renders him a danger to himself or others, or proof that a specific drug always renders its users dangerous.

It simply holds that the government's broad argument - applied to a cooperative individual whose regular but non-incapacitating marijuana use was the sole basis for prosecution - is inconsistent with the Second Amendment's historical tradition.

"Today’s Supreme Court decision in U.S. v. Hemani is a significant victory for the Second Amendment and a major rebuke of the federal government’s attempt to turn peaceable Americans into prohibited persons without any evidence that they are dangerous," Erich Pratt, Senior VP of Gun Owners of America said in a statement to ZeroHedge. "Gun Owners of America and Gun Owners Foundation filed an amicus brief urging the Court to look past the government’s handpicked plaintiff and to focus on the core Second Amendment issue - and thankfully, the Court did exactly that. This ruling sends a clear message: the Department of Justice cannot continue ignoring the text, history, and tradition of the Second Amendment in order to defend gun control laws. It is long past time for the DOJ to stop carrying water for anti-gun policies and start defending the constitutional rights of the American people."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 15:45

US Company Gets Approval To Build The World's First Fusion Power Plant In Washington

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 19:25:00 +0000

US Company Gets Approval To Build The World's First Fusion Power Plant In Washington

Authored by Ameya Paleja via Interesting Engineering,

US-based fusion energy company Helion has received the regulatory clearances to build the world's first fusion energy power plant. The company has received a Radioactive Materials License (RML) and a Radioactive Air Emissions License (RAEL) from the Washington Department of Health (DOH), clearing the way to begin construction of the generator building at the power plant site.

Helion's Orion reactor is set to be the world's first fusion power plant.Helion Energy

As the world looks for newer ways to meet it energy demands without emitting carbon, fusion energy seems to be the most likely option. Using the chemical reaction that occurs on the Sun, fusion energy can potentially generate large amounts of energy from simpler atoms like hydrogen and its isotopes.

Unlike its counterpart, nuclear fission, fusion energy does not produce large amounts of radioactive waste that need to be stored safely. Moreover, unlike renewables like wind and solar, fusion energy plants can work on demand, meeting energy requirements as they arise, without the investments required in energy storage too.

Commercializing Nuclear Fusion

For all its benefits, nuclear fusion is still not a commercially available technology because the fusion reactors have not been able to generate more energy than they consume. Washington-state-based Helion Energy, though, is confident that it can achieve this fairly soon.

While it has not yet published any peer-reviewed papers demonstrating how its fusion reactor works, the company is proceeding to build a fusion reactor that it will deploy commercially. It also has an agreement in place with Microsoft to supply 50 MW of power to a data center from its fusion reactor by 2028.

The facility dubbed Orion is under construction in Malaga, Washington state and recently became the first such facility in the world to secure regulatory licenses to construct the nuclear plant. So far, the assembly and office building of the plant were completed but the recent grant of licenses from the DOH allows Helion to begin constructing the reactor as well.

Why Is NRC Not Involved?

As a nuclear energy company, Helion should ideally be seeking approval from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). However, the NRC regulates nuclear fusion under the byproduct material framework, putting it in the same category for approvals as particle accelerators and hospitals, instead of nuclear reactors.

This is not just a distinction made by the NRC but one also ratified by the US Congress in the ADVANCE Act of 2024, and it shows that nuclear fusion has a very different safety profile from fission and hence its path to deployment is also different.

The issuance of the RML and RAEL licenses by the Washington DOH is a major milestone for Helion as it confirms that it has facilities, personnel, and safety programs that meet the safety standards for a fusion facility at the Malaga site.

"We are extremely proud to be granted these licenses from the Washington DOH, making us the first company in the world with the regulatory approvals in place for fusion power plant operations," said David Kirtley, CEO of Helion Energy, in a press release shared with Interesting Engineering.

"We have a long history of working with the DOH to license our previous fusion activities. Today's announcement represents the rigor of that work and opens the door for practical, commercial, safe fusion power."

In addition to the approvals needed to build its reactor, Helion has also secured a transmission interconnection agreement with Chelan County Public Utility District that will enable energy generated from its fusion power plant to be supplied to the grid, a global first as well.

The question now is whether Helion will be able to meet its deadline to power Microsoft's data center by 2028 from its fusion power plant.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 15:25

Fed Moves To Close Stablecoin Loopholes With New Customer ID Rules

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:45:00 +0000

Fed Moves To Close Stablecoin Loopholes With New Customer ID Rules

Authored by Micah Zimmermann via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The Federal Reserve proposed Thursday that payment stablecoin issuers maintain written customer identification programs, a move that signals Washington’s determination to bring digital asset markets under the same anti-money laundering discipline long applied to traditional banks — even as regulators race to finalize rules before a statutory deadline this coming January.

The proposal would require so-called permitted payment stablecoin issuers, or PPSIs, to collect from each new customer a legal name, date of birth or formation, physical address, and a government-issued identification number before opening an account.

The Federal Reserve framework mirrors CIP obligations that banks, broker-dealers, mutual funds, and futures commission merchants have operated under for more than two decades. Regulators will take public feedback on the proposal for 60 days.

The Federal Reserve’s action follows a wave of rulemaking set in motion by the Genius Act — formally, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act — which President Trump signed into law in July 2025.

That landmark legislation created the first federal regulatory system for stablecoins, mandating 100% reserve backing with liquid assets and subjecting issuers to the Bank Secrecy Act for the first time.

The statute requires stablecoin issuers to establish effective anti-money laundering, sanctions compliance, and customer identification programs. The Genius Act becomes effective on the earlier of January 18, 2027, or 120 days after primary federal regulators issue their final implementing rules.

Federal Reserve Governor cautions towards stablecoins

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr has emerged as the most vocal voice of caution within the regulatory apparatus, even as his colleagues have embraced digital assets with new openness. Speaking in March at a Federalist Society conference in Washington, Barr warned that stablecoins face material risks around reserve asset quality, regulatory arbitrage, anti-money laundering gaps, and financial stability — concerns he argued the Genius Act’s primary text does not resolve on its own.

“While some digital asset service providers are subject to anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing requirements in their home jurisdiction, it is far too easy for bad actors to evade these restrictions and operate without detection when transacting in digital assets,” Barr said in a statement Thursday.

Barr, who previously served as the Federal Reserve’s top bank cop, contends that detailed rulemaking remains the critical instrument for translating the statute’s intent into enforceable protections.

Thursday’s proposal is the latest in a dense sequence of rulemakings from multiple agencies. In April 2026, the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and the Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a joint proposed rule requiring PPSIs to adopt written AML and countering-the-financing-of-terrorism programs and a full sanctions compliance framework.

That rule would carve PPSIs out of the existing money services business category and treat them as a distinct class of BSA-covered financial institutions — a significant structural change, given FinCEN’s finding that roughly half of known stablecoin issuers have not registered as MSBs at all.

The FDIC and OCC each issued their own notices of proposed rulemaking in parallel, covering licensing, reserves, capital requirements, and redemption standards. The CIP proposal announced Thursday is a separate, complementary rulemaking to those AML and sanctions rules.

Stablecoin rules and nuance

The proposed customer identification requirements carry technical nuance tailored to stablecoin markets. Unlike banks, a PPSI can face demands for direct redemption from token holders who acquired coins on the secondary market rather than through a direct issuance relationship.

The proposal addresses this by defining an “account” to include that redemption event, meaning an individual who acquires a stablecoin on an exchange and later redeems it directly with the issuer would trigger CIP obligations at the moment of that interaction.

Purely secondary market transactions in which the PPSI is not a direct counterparty — including transfers conducted via smart contract — would not constitute an account relationship under the proposed framework.

The timeline for finalization is tight. With the Genius Act’s effective date potentially arriving as early as 120 days after the agencies publish their final rules, the window for comment, revision, and adoption is compressed. Final CIP rules are not expected before 2027, which means the statute could take effect before its customer identification architecture is fully in place.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 14:45

Bullish Or Bearish Into Year-End? BTIG & Fundstrat To Face Off

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:45:00 +0000

Bullish Or Bearish Into Year-End? BTIG & Fundstrat To Face Off

S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs despite yesterday’s post-Fed freakout. Risk-on is still in fashion as investors remain hopeful of a lasting U.S.-Iran peace. Though the question remains: Is the rally sustainable or are markets poised for a painful reversal before year-end?

Tonight at 7pm ET, Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money hosts a debate between two of Wall Street's closely followed technical strategists: Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG, and Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat.

Bull Case (Newton):

Newton sees the upward trend in tech/AI continuing higher, which will lift the broader market into 2027… even if there’s a little chop.

While he expects periods of volatility and some consolidation, easing energy prices and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure will support further gains into year-end, even in the already-lofty tech/AI trade. With oil retreating sharply from wartime highs and investors increasingly focused on the long-term productivity benefits of AI (economic benefits that are real and not merely a bubble), Newton sees pullbacks as opportunities.

Oil was sent sharply lower on the news of a ceasefire, something Newton sees continuing into year end in the broader energy sector:

Energy could be a "source of real underperformance" in the months ahead.@MarkNewtonCMT of @Fundstrat tells @RemyBlaireNews healthcare and financials are his top picks, with $NKE "starting to finally show some evidence of rallying." pic.twitter.com/p2C988c584
— FINTECH.TV (@FINTECHTVglobal) June 15, 2026

Bear Case (Krinsky):

Krinsky has maintained a more cautious stance as equities push further into historically stretched territory.

While the recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk appetite and eased inflation concerns, Krinsky has argued recently that elevated valuations, particularly in tech, are due for a correction at some point… especially with a seemingly hawkish fed. Krinsky has also pointed to the recent decoupling of bond yields and oil prices, having risen in tandem until post-peace deal where yields continued rising (possibly Fed-related) while oil tanked.

Recent gains have been driven largely by AI-related technology shares, semiconductors, and the Magnificent Seven, while many other areas of the market have failed to keep pace. Both Newton and Krinsky agree on this, though only one sees it as fuel to further propel markets higher… the other sees a ticking time bomb.

Both panelists rely on technicals and regularly change their market outlooks based on data. Neither guest is a perma-bull or bear… so no broken clocks tonight.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET on the ZH homepage, X Feed, and Youtube channel to watch live to see how they’re looking at Iran, Fed chair Warsh, and markets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 14:45

It Wasn't Fireworks... Social Isolation, Escalating Anger Drove Palisades Arsonist's Desire For Revenge, Jury Told

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:25:00 +0000

It Wasn't Fireworks... Social Isolation, Escalating Anger Drove Palisades Arsonist's Desire For Revenge, Jury Told

Explosives and arson experts from the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms this week told a jury in the federal arson case against Jonathan Rinderknecht that fireworks could not have been the culprit.

The 29-year-old Rinderknecht is accused of starting a blaze in the Santa Monica Mountains, which investigators say led to the deadly Palisades Fire of 2025.

“Anyone who was in this area—if there was a firework launched, burning, or landing here—would have seen it. They’re bright, there’s a lot of color, a lot of flame, a lot of stars. And you would definitely hear it,” Kevin Miner, an explosives enforcement officer and unit chief at the agency’s training facility in Huntsville, Alabama, told the court.

“It’s 140 decibels of sound—that’s more than twice what it takes to harm the human ear.”

Miner said he based his findings on video surveillance footage, witness testimony, and analysis of sound profiles, topography, and weather conditions.

As Beige Luciano-Adams reports for The Epoch Times, Rinderknecht is on trial for three federal counts of arson related to property damage sustained in the Pacific Palisades Fire, which killed 12 people and incinerated more than 6,000 homes in the eponymous coastal enclave.

The state argues the catastrophe was a “holdover” or continuation of the Lachman Fire, which investigators say Rinderknecht allegedly ignited with a Bic lighter just after midnight on New Year’s Eve 2024, driven by a desire for “revenge against society.”

Defense attorneys maintain the government has no “reliable evidence” showing that Rinderknecht started the Lachman Fire on Jan. 1, much less that he was responsible for a separate fire that began a week later on Jan. 7.

Rather, Rinderknecht’s defense team says he encountered a fire and called 911 to report it in good faith—and that a firework was the more likely cause.

ATF agents on Monday and Wednesday dismantled the firework origin theory with a methodical recounting of the evidence.

While in theory, an aerial firework could cause a blaze like the Lachman Fire, Miner acknowledged under cross-examination that the specific conditions in the area and the fact that no witnesses—including, by his own account, the defendant—saw any fireworks, make it extremely unlikely.

Federal fire investigators also ruled out so-called “ground salutes” or ground-based fireworks, a malfunctioning or smoldering firework, or other potential causes like cigarettes, lightning, or powerlines.

Steve Haney, an attorney for Rinderknecht, sought to sow the seeds of reasonable doubt.

“For 10 days, everyone ignored a crime scene, didn’t they?” he asked Miner on cross-examination.

If the Jan. 1 Lachman Fire was an arson, then it was a crime scene—but it wasn’t preserved as such, Haney said, noting the area remained open to the public, planes dropped water and fire retardant on the burn scar, and a subsequent fire razed the area, potentially incinerating physical evidence.

“Isn’t it true that if there were evidence of fireworks, it would have been washed down the hill?” Haney asked. “And for at least nine days, no one went up there to look for fireworks materials?”

Miner ultimately agreed such was theoretically possible, but said the lack of physical evidence in this particular case was not a concern.

“I relied more on the sound profiles, and the video and witness statements. Frequently we have very little physical evidence of the fireworks after suppression, so it’s not uncommon for that to disappear.”

Fireworks

Attorneys for the state preempted the defense’s argument that witnesses, including nearby residents, heard what they thought were fireworks just before midnight that could have emanated from the origin area.

“There are a variety of statements—most in their homes, some said they heard a popping, and a couple people referred to bottle rockets, some to fireworks,” Miner said.

But, he said, any firework sounds they heard more likely than not would have come from below the neighborhood, given the fact that the homes are terraced into the mountainside, and the fire origin area is around 350 feet above it.

“It drops off significantly … Sound has a tendency to travel up,” he said.

Sound emanating from an aerial firework, Miner explained, is omnidirectional—“anything airborne will send sound and blast waves out in all directions.”

In the particular area where investigators believe the fire started, the sound would have traveled everywhere until it hit objects, clouds, hard land, or buildings to absorb or reflect it, Miner said.

“In calm weather like that, there’s nothing to mask the sound. Sound travels very quickly and easily through that medium.”

Something set off in the lower canyons below the homes, he explained, would bounce until it hit objects, clouds, or buildings to absorb it; something set off up higher would be less likely to be heard at all, as the sound energy would “escape into the atmosphere.”

One nearby resident, located around 0.2 miles and around 350 feet below the fire’s area of origin, reported his windows shaking before midnight.

But Miner said it was extremely unlikely he would’ve been the only one to experience this if it came from a firework above him.

“If that were to actually be caused by anything on the mountaintop, you would expect to see evidence in houses adjacent, maybe 200 to 300 feet away—broken glass, cameras askew,” Miner said.

“You can’t rattle a window 0.2 miles away without rattling everyone’s windows.”

A Burning Bush

Investigators determined the fire was incendiary in nature—in this case, ignition of vegetation. They came to this conclusion based on a review of video surveillance, witness testimony, and the defendant’s own statements.

“The defendant admitted having a lighter with him up on Buddha Hill,” said Derek Hill, a fire analyst and recently retired Certified Fire Investigator with the ATF who worked the case, referring to the landing area where investigators believe the Lachman Fire started.

“He said he was alone on the hill. He identified where the fire started correctly—this was information that wasn’t public at the time.

“It gave us pause because he was recognizing the fire from a location we know he was at, but not when that fire would have been visible,” he said.

Investigators tracked Rinderknecht’s movements using geolocation data from nearby cellular towers, constructing a detailed timeline that they overlaid with one constructed from video surveillance footage.

All of this, Hill said, corroborated investigators’ work, including a meticulous mapping of fire pattern indicators, in which they looked at the fire’s impact on the environment to determine how and where it spread, and at what intensity.

Hill helped lead a team that included 11 federal Certified Fire Investigators and five wildland investigators. Arriving on the scene of the Palisades Fire on Jan. 13, they spread across a general area where they believe the blaze originated, and studied the terrain, at times crawling or slithering across the charred ground to find clues.

Ultimately, they were able to narrow a specific area of suspected origin—and then a single bush from where the fire allegedly emerged.

Firefighters had described firebrands or embers that came off the Lachman Fire, which burned from north to south. A detailed analysis, investigators say, confirmed their hypothesis that the Jan. 1 fire had smoldered underground until resurfacing seven days later, when it was picked up by winds and continued as the Palisades Fire.

“We started identifying burned out roots, some exposed and some not,” Hill said. “That was indicative of fire burning underground in the root structure of the shrub. We know the fire came out of this root ball and spread out.”

Compromised Crime Scene

Haney noted—and Hill acknowledged—that investigators could not preclude the existence of an unknown combustible that may have been lost in the fire, or during suppression or cleanup activities.

If the allegation is that Rinderknecht maliciously and willfully started the Lachman Fire, Haney said, the crime scene was compromised.

The fact that people were allowed to walk through a crime scene for nine days was “not ideal,” Hill acknowledged.

Under redirect, the witness said that in nearly 800 fire scenes he’d worked during the course of his career, the majority involved some kind of water suppression before investigators arrived—meaning it was a common condition and one for which agents are trained to take into account.

“Water didn’t wash away the surveillance footage, did it?” Mark Williams, attorney with the Department of Justice, asked.

“It did not,” Hill said, explaining that investigators used the surveillance footage to construct a detailed timeline of when the fire was first visible and how it developed, which they compared with a timeline of the defendant’s movements.

Haney suggested that timeline was incomplete—some videos were taken from miles away and didn’t have audio. And while footage may have depicted when the fire was visible, it didn’t show when it started.

Where Hill said investigators determined the fire ignited between 12:10–12:12 a.m.—when it shows up on surveillance video—Haney noted there was no direct evidence of such.

“You don’t have any cameras that show ignition of when the Lachman Fire occurred, do you?”

“No,” Hill replied.

Social Isolation, Escalating Anger Drove Palisades Arsonist’s Desire for Revenge, Analyst Tells Jury

However, as Luciano-Adams continues, a behavioral analyst on Wednesday told a federal jury that social isolation and escalating anger helped drive a 29-year-old Uber driver to ignite a brush fire in the Santa Monica Mountains, which days later would resurface as the deadly inferno that killed 12 people and leveled more than 6,000 homes in the wealthy coastal enclave of the Pacific Palisades.

Dr. Kevin Kelm, a retired supervisory special agent with the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms who specializes in behavioral analysis and criminal profiling related to arson, alleges Jonathan Rinderknecht was motivated by an “expressive,” or emotionally driven, and opportunistic desire for revenge on society at large.

“In my opinion, the defendant exhibited behavior consistent with [a] ‘revenge’ or ‘societal motivated revenge’ fire,” Kelm said, describing his analysis of Rinderknecht’s behavior before, during, and after the fire.

The state argues that Rinderknecht’s deteriorating mental state and escalating fixation on themes such as wealth disparity, “climate change,” and vigilantism in the months leading up to the fire reveal his motive.

Arsonists motivated by societal revenge, Kelm said, referring to an arson motive typology used by the FBI, typically have many things going wrong in their lives and fixate on problems, which are exacerbated by an accumulation of stressors–including interpersonal relations and social isolation.

“These pressures continue to build and build,” Kelm said, and the act of setting a fire “provides some emotional relief and diversion from the problems.”

Analysis of Rinderknecht’s behavior in the months leading up to the fire, including in fraught interpersonal relationships and in thousands of increasingly frustrated interactions with the OpenAI chatbot ChatGPT, is evidence of such escalation, Kelm said.

“It goes to the inability to deal with a stressor. And it was focused on a large stressor for the defendant, which has to do with societal issues, one being wealth inequality and large corporations that were distressing to [him],” said the analyst, who previously worked on cases related to both the Oklahoma City Bombing of 1996 and the 911 terrorist attack on the Pentagon.

Digital records uncovered in the investigation reveal that Rinderknecht was at least fixated on a tableau pitting the world’s rich and powerful against the rest of society and the environment, and related feelings of loneliness and helplessness. Uber passengers who rode with him around the time of the fire testified about vitriolic, threatening rants, “incel vibes,” and erratic behavior.

Steve Haney, his attorney, has argued that none of this makes him an arsonist.

Cross-examining Kelm on Wednesday, Haney suggested that many people are upset about large corporations, politics, the wealth disparity, or “climate change.”

“Much of what you’ve testified and observed is pretty normal American thinking right now, isn’t it?” Haney queried.

“I didn’t cherry-pick,” Kelm said, noting that each behavior on its own may not in itself constitute motivation. “You’re correct. Each one of these things applies to large parts of the population. But not when it’s in your everyday life and occurs over and over and in all these domains … it becomes controlling and the behavior is a response to that.”

Societal revenge arsonists, according to the FBI typology, do not plan.

“It’s extremely impulsive. And in this case, the defendant put himself at the location. He stopped taking work calls, he went to this isolated location he had familiarity with,” Kelm said, noting that almost all arsonists choose locations that are in their environment or “comfort zone.”

The witness said investigators’ conclusion that Rinderknecht started the fire with a lighter, as opposed to accelerants or other ignition methods, was consistent with expressive arson.

While Rinderknecht’s attorneys point out he called 911 repeatedly to report the fire, investigators allege such was part of a staging he did to appear cooperative and deflect suspicion, which Kelm said was common in arson cases.

Authorities also suspect the defendant attempted to cover his tracks by making a screen video of a 911 call and by asking ChatGPT whether one could be blamed for a fire started with a discarded cigarette.

The defendant’s “methodical stroll” down the hill as he made 911 calls, Kelm said, “is just totally inconsistent with someone who discovers a fire.”

The ChatGPT query, Kelm argued, was “unnecessary behavior” by Rinderknecht. “It’s excessive, and very inconsistent with what I’d expect an average individual to do when trying to report a fire and get out of harm’s way.”

Firefighters work to extinguish the Palisades Fire burning near Los Angeles, Calif., on Jan. 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

After leaving the scene, Rinderknecht returned and took videos of the fire and first responders; Kelm suggested this could indicate the fire was a source of excitement—another motive typology.

But the emotional release that an expressive arsonist may feel after lighting a fire, Kelm said, can be short-lived.

“I think once some of the initial excitement wears off, the daily routine hasn’t changed. It’s back to being an Uber driver, to not making enough money: listening to partygoers sitting in your back seat having a great time while your life hasn’t changed at all,” he said.

Kelm described the defendant’s behavior, both before and after the fire, as typical of a “a grievance collector—things go wrong, and he’s not the cause, it’s always someone else’s fault.”

Writ large, the profiler said, the behavior took on increased significance, as the pieces fit together like a “jigsaw puzzle.”

“What I’m looking for is to see this pattern emerge over time in all of the domains … it tells me what the whole picture is,” Kelm said.

Haney asked whether anger-motivated arsonists want to destroy things.

“No, not necessarily. The act of actually setting the fire is the objective. Oftentimes, the consequences are very surprising to the individual and result in a panic response, because what happens wasn’t what was expected.”

Haney asked whether Kelm had ever, in a half-century of experience, seen a revenge arsonist call 911 17 times, as his client had.

“It’s pretty unusual,” Kelm said. “That caught my attention.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 14:25

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:05:00 +0000

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz

By Tsvetana Parskova of OilPrice.com

Crude cargo arrivals in Asia from the Middle East could accelerate in the coming weeks as more than 60 million barrels of oil stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head to Asian markets once the chokepoint reopens to traffic.

About 62 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are expected to make their way to Asia within weeks after the Strait reopens, according to Signal Group data carried by Bloomberg.

Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices. Refiners in Asia, including China, have slashed run rates in response to the loss of supply from the Middle East and the high prices to procure alternative cargoes.

The supply waiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz could prompt some refiners to increase processing rates or opt for replenishing commercial stock tanks that have been drawn down over the past three months.

Asia, however, appears to have stocked up on enough supply at least for June and July after turning to West Africa and South and North America to offset the losses from the Middle East.

Asian refiners are well-supplied for the coming weeks, anonymous traders with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg.

The expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investment banks to slash their oil price forecasts for this year and next.

Morgan Stanley, for example, now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter. The bank’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.

Goldman Sachs cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts. According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 14:05

Just Days After Record IPO, SpaceX To Sell $20 Billion In Bonds

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:50:00 +0000

Just Days After Record IPO, SpaceX To Sell $20 Billion In Bonds

Earlier this week, we showed the unprecedented pace of hyperscaler Investment Grade debt accumulation, which according to Morgan Stanley calculations had doubled in just two quarters, rising from 0.9x leverage in Q3 '25 to 1.8x currently, a pace that has already surpassed the entire energy sector's gross leverage of 1.6%.

Source

We predicted that this staggering growth rate would continue increasing at a pace of over 0.3x per quarter, and moments ago we got another confirmation of the insatiable demand for AI debt when Bloomberg reported that just days after the biggest ever Initial Public Offering in history, bankers for SpaceX are preparing to hold calls with investors as soon as next week to discuss a potential bond offering.

The bond is expected to be at least $20 billion, and the investor calls may kick off on Monday. Plans and timing may change of the offering may yet change, according to Bloomberg.

SpaceX plans to issue investment-grade bonds for the first time, adding to the already overheating IG calendar. The bond proceeds would refinance a temporary $20 billion bridge loan that matures in September 2027. The bridge loan makes up the bulk of SpaceX’s $29.1 billion of long-term debt as of March 31, the company said in its IPO prospectus.

Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman and Morgan Stanley provided the bridge financing and are expected to run the bond deal .

SpaceX’s historic IPO turned the start-up into one of the world’s most valuable public companies and turned its founder into the world’s first trillionaire (although the stock is sliding today, down 10% at one point as momentum left the stock to go back to its preferred memory momentum names). The company’s embrace of AI with the acquisition of Musk’s xAI in February made the listing somewhat of a referendum on the IPO prospects of competitors Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are expected to go public as soon as this year.

The bottom line here is that literally every company is now rushing to issue as much debt (and equity) as the market will possibly absorb, as it is only a matter of time before the debt, and thus capex, window closes.

As Goldman Delta-1 head Rich Privorotsky wrotes, "everyone still appears convinced they must keep spending simply to remain competitive, while token cost compression/advent of neoclouds puts pricing pressure on core business. If token prices continue to compress alongside falling compute costs, the benefits may accrue to users faster than providers. Ironically, the first hyperscaler to signal that it can slow the pace of spending will likely see its share price rewarded (and will crush semiconductor stocks). If that happens, others will take notice. That is the reflexivity that ultimately stalls the capex cycle… not a lack of demand, but investors deciding that incremental returns on the next dollar of spend are no longer attractive."

Privo's conclusion: "Watch hyperscalers share price as leading indicator."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:50

CENTCOM Says Hormuz Naval Blockade Ends As Gulf Energy Flows Reboot

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:20:00 +0000

CENTCOM Says Hormuz Naval Blockade Ends As Gulf Energy Flows Reboot

Summary:

U.S. CENTCOM says U.S. Naval Blockade on Hormuz has been "Lifted"
Kuwait Petroleum CEO says Energy Production to Ramp in a Week
Iran Media says Southern Ports Traffic Begins Normalizing
Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia

The roughly two-month U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has officially ended, according to U.S. Central Command on X. This marks a major de-escalation in the Gulf region, as early signs point to the beginning of normalization of energy flows through the critical waterway by tankers.

"Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction," CENTCOM said.

CENTCOM continued, "American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect."

Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 18, 2026

Hormuz flows are still muted.

Searching For Hormuz Normalization Signals

Attention on institutional desks is shifting toward normalization signals at the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint.

At the time of writing at least 14 transits through the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Thursday June 18 - up from just 2 on the same day last week pic.twitter.com/qcWLrWewCy
— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) June 18, 2026

Earlier, we detailed how Saudi supertankers were beginning to exit the narrow waterway bound for Asia, while also noting that a massive backlog of tankers remains poised to exit the Persian Gulf as the reopening process gets underway.

Bloomberg, citing the semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency, reported that commercial vessel traffic at southern ports is moving toward normalization, with vessels carrying critical goods arriving and two tankers departing.

A separate Bloomberg story quoted Kuwait Petroleum Corp. CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, who said in an interview that Kuwaiti output is expected to exceed 2 million barrels a day within a week.

"We anticipate that we can exceed 2 million barrels a day within one week from now." Nawaf Al-Sabah.

He added, "And that pending availability of international commercial shipping, to reach Kuwaiti ports, we should be able to resume pre-war production within a matter of weeks."

At pre-conflict levels, Kuwait was producing 2.5 million barrels a day, but has since slumped to as low as half a million barrels a day.

Related:

"Zero Hormuz Dependency": UAE Races To Rewire Energy Flows, Bypassing Chokepoint Chaos

Earlier, BofA Global Research's commodity team slashed its 2026E Brent forecast to $82/bbl from $ 93/bbl, citing a flood of crude set to hit the global market in the coming weeks and months as Hormuz normalization ramps up.

"The team has also cut its 2027E Brent forecast to US$70/bbl from US$78/bbl with a surplus of 1.1mb/d forecast during the year," BofA analysts said.

Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.

There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit.

The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive.

One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf.

Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal.

"There are certain practical steps that we believe are necessary before the vessels that have been stranded in the Gulf for the last 110 days can resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz," Sheila Cameron, CEO, and Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association, told Bloomberg in a statement.

Cameron continued, "The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers. The road to recovery in the Gulf will be a long and complicated one. It will take months for some sort of normality to return to international shipping with vessels in the wrong place and supply chains distorted."

Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."

On Thursday morning, Brent crude futures fell below $78, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. Traders are already pricing in the coming flood of seaborne crude.

Dubai and Murban crude futures curves have flipped into contango, Oman crude is trading at a discount to Dubai, and some diesel cargoes are trading below benchmark levels after commanding lofty premiums.

The first signs of normalization are already visible, following President Trump's acknowledgment on Wednesday at the G7 Summit that the interim peace deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz was signed as the U.S. was nearing the point of "running out of reserves in about four weeks."

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Struyven noted that even if the expected "normalization" occurs by the end of next month, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels ...

Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Peace Deal

• President Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran on Wednesday evening at the Palace of Versailles, following the G7 summit

• The deal is now in effect and was signed electronically by both presidents, according to US and Iranian officials

• The memorandum of understanding opens the way for 60 days of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and other issues

• Iran will receive sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oil immediately and gain access to a $300 billion economic development program

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US can reimpose an ironclad blockade if Iran doesn't comply with the deal

Strait of Hormuz Reopening

• Three Saudi supertankers carrying about six million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the first Saudi-owned crude tankers to cross since the war began

• A laden LNG carrier and an empty products tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz early Thursday, sailing along a route approved by Tehran for safe passages

• Qatar brought an empty LNG tanker back into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began on Thursday

• Goldman Sachs estimates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of pre-war levels, with normalization potentially completed by the end of next month

Economic Impact

• US gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time since March, down from a May peak above $4.50

Deal Criticism and Complications

• Trump faced pushback from Republicans who object to the deal and the billions of dollars set to flow to Tehran

• Trump brushed aside several red lines on Wednesday, suggesting Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles and access frozen funds

• Israel rejected a US request to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, citing continued presence of Hezbollah, threatening to complicate broader peace efforts

Iran Leadership Investigation

• The US Justice Department is conducting a probe into how Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei built a global investment portfolio with exposure to Wall Street banks, examining allegations of money laundering and corruption

Related Legal Developments

• A federal judge allowed the Justice Department to drop a criminal case against Turkish state-owned Halkbank on Wednesday for allegedly helping Iran evade US sanctions

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:20

Take-Two Shares Jump As 'Grand Theft Auto VI' Pre-Orders Open Next Week

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:05:00 +0000

Take-Two Shares Jump As 'Grand Theft Auto VI' Pre-Orders Open Next Week

Take-Two Interactive Software shares jumped early in the cash session after the company announced on X that pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will open next Thursday. The move is easing investor concerns that the highly anticipated game could face another delay, reinforcing expectations that Rockstar Games remains on track for its Nov. 19 launch date.

"Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers," Rockstar Games wrote on X. The gaming studio is a wholly owned subsidiary of Take-Two.

Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.

Check out the official cover art, also available as downloadable artwork at https://t.co/XPwC8URCQ4 pic.twitter.com/pRVXk4eyDQ
— Rockstar Games (@RockstarGames) June 18, 2026

The last major GTA release was GTA V, which launched on Sept. 17, 2013. Gamers have been waiting 13 years for a major GTA installment.

Rockstar has upset not just Take-Two investors but also GTA gamers on numerous occasions, indicating that its developers needed more time to finish the game, thereby delaying the launch. The launch date is set for Nov. 19.

Rockstar just gave us the best look yet at non-enterable buildings in GTA VI

It's not a straight up png like in GTA V and other open world games with skyscrapers but at the same time, it doesn't have anywhere near the detail as the rest of the game. What I'm really curious about… https://t.co/Q5ko9Gpawz pic.twitter.com/kVQTiGZ4VR
— Farzam (@farzam_plays) June 18, 2026

Take-Two shares are up nearly 6% in the cash session, though the stock has traded mostly sideways since peaking around $262 in October 2025.

Last month, we asked:

Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Pitz noted, "We highlight that the game's price remains a key question, as the launch of preorders next Friday should confirm base game pricing. We will also closely monitor for any higher-priced SKUs that give players early access to the game. Reiterate our Outperform, Top Pick, and $280 target price."

According to Bloomberg data, 97% of the analyst coverage on TWWO is "Buy" rated with an average 12-month price target of $281.97.

For reference, GTA V sold about 225 million to 230 million copies worldwide.

There is already a report from Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang that console sales are increasing ahead of the GTA VI release.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:05

RFK Jr. Announces More Than $700 Million To Target Mental Illness, Homelessness

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:45:00 +0000

RFK Jr. Announces More Than $700 Million To Target Mental Illness, Homelessness

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration is going to spent more than $700 million on programs aimed at reducing drug addiction, homelessness, and mental illness, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on June 17.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Washington on May 18, 2026. Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images

The largest portion of the new funding, nearly $239 million, is going to a lifeline that people who are suicidal can call. Some $223 million is going to community behavioral health clinics. Nearly $100 million is being offered to communities that apply to the Safety Through Recovery, Engagement, and Evidence-based Treatment and Support (STREETS) Program, which provides services for homeless people who are addicted to drugs or have serious mental illness.

The other funds are going to programs targeting the prevention of, treatment for, and recovery from drugs, or programs that support mentally ill people.

"These investments will help move people from the streets into treatment and recovery, strengthen families, save lives, and make communities safer," Kennedy said in a statement.

The funding follows an executive order from President Donald Trump that directed officials to work on shifting homeless people into institutions to help address crime and disorder in the nation's cities, and another order that says the disease of addiction must be stopped through an emphasis on treatment.

"My Administration will drive a new national response to the disease of addiction that will create stronger coordination across government, the healthcare sector, faith communities, and the private sector in order to save lives, restore families, strengthen our communities, and build the Great American Recovery," Trump said in the latter order.

Kennedy on Wednesday visited the Easterseals Michigan-Clinton Township Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinic, part of the Easterseals network of facilities that assist people with disabilities, their families and caregivers, and veterans.

"Our goal is to provide comprehensive outpatient mental health and substance use services that are person-centered, trauma-informed and evidence-based," the clinic's website states.

Kennedy said that homelessness is "one of the greatest problems that we have now, health problems in this country" and that it is interconnected with the crisis of drug addiction, which has caused more than 1 million deaths since 2000.

Kennedy said administration officials do not support so-called harm reduction initiatives, such as needle exchanges or "safe injection sites." Instead, the administration is emphasizing treatment.

"Recovery works. Treatment works. Accountability works," he said.

Kennedy did say that the withdrawal drugs Suboxone and methadone work, particularly for addicts who cannot enter treatment at certain times. They are "good bridge solutions," he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 12:45

Amazon In Talks To Sell Its Trainium AI Chips To Other Firms, In Challenge To Nvidia Dominance

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:25:00 +0000

Amazon In Talks To Sell Its Trainium AI Chips To Other Firms, In Challenge To Nvidia Dominance

Amazon is in talks to sell its custom-made Trainium AI chips for use in other companies’ data centers, Bloomberg reports, noting this "represents a key expansion of its efforts to cut into Nvidia's dominance", although a less optimistic read is that the company does not have enough demand or capacity to use the chips for its own uses.

Peter DeSantis, Amazon’s AI chief, said the world’s largest cloud computing company has begun discussions but declined to name potential customers. Presumably, it will try to steal market share by offering its product at a much more competitive terms, which suggests more pricing pressure across the AI ecosystem.

“We view AI infrastructure as rapidly evolving,” he said in an interview in Paris. “And we’re constantly looking at ways to get to more customers.”

Introduced in 2020, Amazon’s AI accelerator, Trainium, has won a few marquee buyers, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Uber, which access the hardware via Amazon Web Services. The chip has produced more than $225 billion in revenue commitments, Amazon said in April (for a word of caution about purchase commitments read our discussion on the trillions in off-balance sheet liabilities sloshing inside the AI ecosystem).

That same month, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in his shareholder letter that it’s “quite possible” Amazon would sell racks of its chips to third parties. It was part of a broader attempt to reposition the sprawling company around AI, an area where it’s seen as falling behind rivals.

Amazon and other cloud computing titans have each been developing their own alternatives to Nvidia’s popular graphics processing units — and ramped up these efforts after ChatGPT’s arrival.

While the AI boom has generated soaring cloud sales, it’s also fueled a new crop of specialized AI cloud providers and driven demand for “sovereign” services in Europe and other regions that are subject to local laws and usually locate information and data processing in the host country.

In April, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Google will begin to deliver its Nvidia GPU rival chips, called tensor processing units, to a “select group of customers” for use in their own data centers. Amazon is following suit with Trainium, in part, due to the growing demand outside of the US for computing resources that are controlled locally, according to DeSantis. Alternatively, there is just not enough demand in the US, no matter what the daily bullish propaganda says (because as a reminder, due to the $2 trillion in interlinked off-balance sheet liabilities, the moment one counterparty trips, it will drag down everyone else with it).

Meanwhile, some of that foreign push, particularly in Europe, has prompted calls for countries to lessen their reliance on US technology or drop it altogether. Speaking at the VivaTech conference in France, DeSantis said the AWS business has not been impacted at all by this trend. Yet.

The third version of the Trainium chip, which began shipping earlier this year, is “largely sold out,” he said. Amazon said there’s already strong interest in a fourth version that’s expected to debut next year.

DeSantis dismissed the idea that selling Trainium outside of AWS would eat into the company’s cloud business. “There’s so much underconsumption in AI,” he said. “I’m not worried about it.” But with token prices tumbling, and compute rental costs in free fall, both of which signal a sudden drop in demand (or excess supply) for compute...

Perfect storm: token costs down 20% since start of the month (down 11 of 12 days) , while compute rental prices are at 1 month lows pic.twitter.com/dwIYeyihGx
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026

... he should be.

The executive also cited growth for Amazon’s Graviton chips, a general-purpose processor that it recently began providing to Meta. Over the last three years, DeSantis said Amazon has added more Graviton chips to its computing systems than any other type of chip.

Amazon shares gained as much as 2.5% on Thursday, reaching an intraday high of $243 on the news.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 12:25

Forward Guidance Is Gone

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:00:00 +0000

Forward Guidance Is Gone

By Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and dropped its easing bias. However, this unanimous decision was announced in an unusually short statement.
What’s more, at his first press conference as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh terminated forward guidance.
However, the Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his forecasts.
Other interesting features of the statement were the reaffirmation of maintaining ample reserves and the conclusion that the Committee will deliver price stability.
At the press conference, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications, the balance sheet, improving data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.
As uncertainty regarding the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026.

Introduction

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50 3.75% and dropped its easing bias. However, this decision was announced in an unusually short statement. The decision was unanimous, with Miran – who repeatedly dissented because he wanted to cut – was replaced by Warsh. The press conference was a clear break from in the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era, with Warsh making an end to forward guidance.

FOMC statement and projections

The statement was so short, that we replicate it here:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Most notably, the easing bias previously expressed in the statement as “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…”., which suggested that the next change would be a rate cut -because the last three adjustments were rate cuts- was dropped.

Other interesting features of the statement were the reaffirmation of maintaining ample reserves – despite Warsh’s earlier stated goal to reduce the balance sheet – and the conclusion that the Committee will deliver price stability.

The new Summary of Economic Projections saw a large upward revision to the inflation forecasts for 2026 and core inflation in 2027. With minor changes to GDP and unemployment forecasts, the federal funds rate forecasts were revised upward in 2026, 2027, and 2028. In fact, the dot plot revealed that 9 out of 18 forecasting participants expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh’s dots were missing. The median participant expects to get back to the current federal funds rate in 2027 and make another cut in 2028. This means we would have to wait at least until 2029 before the federal funds rate reaches its neutral level.

Warsh’s press conference

At the press conference, Warsh said that the FOMC recognized that inflation has been elevated for five years and that this Committee will deliver price stability. Warsh also announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications, the balance sheet, improving data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks. These task forces will include external experts.

Warsh also said that the FOMC statement was shorter and simpler, and that forward guidance was absent, because it is not suited for the current circumstances. He also confirmed that he refrained from providing projections, but he encouraged others to give their projections.

During the Q&A, he effectively terminated forward guidance. Any question regarding future policy decisions was deflected. He did say that financial markets work best if they react to the data and not to the Fed.

WARSH: I THINK THAT MARKETS PERFORM BEST WHEN REACTING TO INCOMING DATA, THEY WORK LESS EFFICIENTLY WHEN THEY ASK HOW WILL THE FED REACT TO THAT INCOMING INFORMATION

Finally, the 4th wall falls
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

He also elaborated on his plans to improve the data: he prefers real-time data instead of echoes from history. He thinks current data are often based on old-fashioned survey methods.

Conclusion

Although Warsh ended forward guidance, the SEP remains in place at least until the task force on communication has completed its work, probably by the end of the year. Although half of the forecasting participants now expects to hike before the end of the year, it was only three months ago – and after the outbreak of the war – that the median participant still expected one cut in 2026. This proves Warsh’s point that projections may not be very useful in the current situation. As uncertainty regarding the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026. We expect the Fed to cut twice in 2027, provided that inflation expectations remain stable. If not, we may also have to pencil in hikes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 12:00

US-Iran MOU Eases Energy Prices But Faces Sharp Pushback From Israel And GOP Hawks

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:25:00 +0000

US-Iran MOU Eases Energy Prices But Faces Sharp Pushback From Israel And GOP Hawks

Summary:

$6B of unfrozen Iran funds will be used to buy US goods
The US and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement at the G7 summit in France.
Energy prices fell as some Saudi supertankers resumed crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
The deal includes a $300 billion private reconstruction fund and temporary Iranian oil export waivers.
Iranian officials declared themselves the clear winner.
The agreement has opened significant new divisions within the Republican Party.
Israel described the deal as a major strategic setback.
US Vice President Vance will meet Iranian officials in Switzerland on Friday.

$6 Billion In Frozen Funds For US Goods

The Financial Times is reporting that the Trump administration will allow Iran to access $6 billion of its oil money held in Qatar to purchase non-sanctioned goods from the US as part of the billions of dollars in financial incentives being floated to ensure that the Islamic Republic commits to the MOU signed on Wednesday.

The funds would be released in phases starting within the 60-day extended ceasefire set out in the deal, depending on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of talks towards a final settlement.

They would only be used to buy American products, said a diplomat briefed on the deal. -FT

Vance's Israel 'Pwease' Moment

During a Thursday presser, VP JD Vance suggested that Israel needs to show some appreciation.

🚨 WOW! JD Vance is DIRECTLY calling out Israeli cabinet members for their personal attacks on President Trump

"Donald J. Trump is the ONLY head of state in the ENTIRE WORLD who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state… pic.twitter.com/0H9yGH8ubL
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 18, 2026

Energy prices continued to fall on Thursday after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen to normal tanker traffic. The deal has been welcomed by markets but has drawn sharp criticism from Israel and quiet frustration from Gulf states, while also exposing tensions within the U.S. political system and NATO.

Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press

Energy Markets and Hormuz Reopening

Brent crude fell to around $78.48 a barrel, down from levels near $95 seen late last week. In the United States, average gasoline prices dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time in months. Some commercial traffic has already resumed: three Saudi supertankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of oil crossed from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman - the first significant volumes of Saudi crude to transit the strait since the war began.

"Oil down," Trump said following the signing, adding that allowing the war to continue "could have caused an international depression."

According to the text of the agreement, Iran will facilitate commercial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz at no charge for the first 60 days. Full traffic is to resume within 30 days once technical and military obstacles are addressed and mines are cleared. Iran will hold talks with Oman on the future administration and maritime services of the waterway in line with international law. The United States and Gulf states have opposed any Iranian toll on what they regard as international waters.

Key Elements of the Preliminary Deal

The memorandum of understanding, signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, launches at least 60 days of negotiations that could begin as early as Friday. It includes temporary waivers for Iranian oil exports, a commitment to halt hostilities linked to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, and a $300 billion private investment vehicle - the Reconstruction and Development Fund - designed to channel capital into Iran’s energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport sectors.

Maritime traffic routes through the Strait of Hormuz from Sunday to Thursday.NBC News

More than half of the $300 billion has reportedly already been pledged by companies based in the United States, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa. The fund contains no government grants or U.S. taxpayer money and will only become operational after a final, comprehensive agreement is reached. It is separate from parallel talks on sanctions relief and unfrozen Iranian assets. Iran had originally sought $400 billion in war-damage compensation; the private fund mechanism emerged as the compromise.

A formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva is now in doubt after Iran’s foreign ministry indicated the remote signing may have made it unnecessary, though negotiating teams are still expected to meet there.

Iran Presents a United Front

Iranian officials have moved swiftly to project a unified public stance following the signing of the preliminary cease-fire agreement. After weeks of reported internal political friction - during which some hardliners reportedly sought to derail the deal - senior figures are now emphasizing national victory and the need for domestic cohesion.

Seyed Abbas Mousavi, a senior government official, stated that only a “small number” of critics remain inside Iran and described the country as the clear winner of both the war and the subsequent negotiations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei went further, comparing the work of Iranian diplomats to that of soldiers operating “behind launchers and in trenches,” and urged the public to extend the same level of support to the negotiating team as it had to the military during the conflict.

This coordinated messaging marks a notable shift from the divisions that surfaced during the war and stands in contrast to the public criticism that has emerged from some Republican lawmakers in Washington since the deal was signed

GOP Rift

Trump’s preliminary agreement with Iran has opened new fissures within the Republican Party. While some lawmakers praised the president for ending the fighting, others - including longtime allies and prominent conservatives - expressed sharp criticism, skepticism, and alarm over what they see as insufficient concessions from Tehran.

Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana called the war “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades,” arguing that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed and that the regime had successfully used the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions. “Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” he wrote on social media.

Senator Ted Cruz questioned whether the deal amounted to “giving $300 billion to the Iranian ayatollah,” while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said it was “a huge mistake to pay to rebuild the threat we just destroyed.”

"History teaches us giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea," Cruz continued.

WOW — Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) takes a major whack at Trump’s Iran MOU

Wicker says the $300B fund “would make Iran’s payoff under President Obama’s 2015 deal look like a pittance by comparison” pic.twitter.com/9Tyxa3DCOO
— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) June 18, 2026

Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene described the war as “totally unnecessary” and sarcastically remarked, “This, apparently, is what winning looks like.”

The New York Post ran a critical front-page headline on Wednesday, accusing Trump of hitting Iran with a “LOVEBOMB” of cash and sanctions relief. Conservative pro-Israel commentator Mark Levin also said he found “much to be concerned about” in the agreement.

The backlash highlights a difficult balancing act for Mr. Trump. At the start of the conflict, he faced pushback from “America First” isolationists who opposed entering a new war. Now, as he tries to end it, he is drawing fire from more traditional national security conservatives who believe the deal fails to deliver lasting limits on Iran’s nuclear program or regional influence.

Not all Republicans were critical. Senator Tim Scott called the agreement a “major victory for American security and global stability,” while Senator Lindsey Graham expressed cautious optimism, saying he saw “little downside to trying” to reach a verifiable nuclear deal during the coming 60-day period.

Trump responded to his critics on Wednesday, dismissing them as “stupid and bad people” and insisting he had the support of the international community.

Washington and NATO Tensions Flare

The deal has faced pushback inside the United States, including from some Republican lawmakers concerned about the scope of sanctions relief and the reconstruction fund. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a pointed rebuke of NATO allies in Brussels, calling their refusal to facilitate U.S. strikes on Iran “shameful” and announcing a six-month review of American troop presence in Europe. He warned that U.S. support for the alliance would not be “a one-way street” and signaled possible cuts to Washington’s NATO contributions if allies do not increase defense spending.

Israel Views the Deal as a Strategic Setback

Israeli analysts described the agreement as failing to achieve any of Israel’s primary war aims and potentially leaving the country worse off. The deal does not limit Iran’s ballistic-missile arsenal or its backing of proxy forces such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The nuclear file is deferred to future talks. It also seeks to constrain Israeli operations in Lebanon and calls for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon - positions Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected, stating that Israel is not a party to the agreement and is not bound by its terms.

Commentators in Israel have characterized the outcome as a significant diplomatic reversal, noting that Iran appears emboldened, retains its missile capabilities, and stands to gain substantial financial resources that could flow to its military programs and regional allies. U.S. forces are also required to pull back from Iran’s immediate vicinity within 30 days under the framework.

🚨HOWARD LUTNICK REACTS TO TRUMP’S REMARKS

Howard Lutnick appeared to shake his head in disappointment as Trump said Israel had little to complain about. pic.twitter.com/UDCfCEL44b
— Parody Jeff (@Parodyjeffx) June 18, 2026

Meanwhile...

Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir:

We cannot stop destroying houses in southern Lebanon. We cannot stop, period.

We cannot allow the population of southern Lebanon to return. ... We must continue to control the territory even if Trump disagrees.

We are an… pic.twitter.com/vhHo7K1Ttv
— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2026

Gulf States Express Disappointment

Governments across the Persian Gulf - Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar - expressed disappointment that the agreement contains no curbs on Iran’s missile and drone programs. Analysts noted that Gulf states had hoped for stronger limits after suffering Iranian missile and drone attacks on airports, energy facilities, and other sites during the conflict.

Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, said excluding Iran’s missiles and drones from the agreement showed that the United States “doesn’t have our best interests in mind.”

Mr. al-Saif said he has no doubt that Iran was already rebuilding its missile and drone capacities and that it would use the financial windfall it gets from the deal to acquire more of the weaponry. The agreement, which U.S. and Iranian officials have called a memorandum of understanding, says the Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives. -NYT

President Trump’s recent public remarks that Iran should be permitted some ballistic missiles because neighboring countries possess them drew particular notice, contrasting with earlier U.S. statements that the objective included denying Iran the ability to threaten the region with such weapons.

Regional experts assess that Gulf governments may now accelerate investment in air-defense systems and seek technical cooperation with countries such as Ukraine and South Korea. While some voices question long-term reliance on the United States as a security guarantor, analysts emphasize that any meaningful strategic reorientation would take a decade or more to develop.

What Happens Next

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Friday to mark the agreement and launch the next round of negotiations. The 60-day period extends the existing cease-fire and will focus on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and regional security arrangements. Whether the preliminary deal can be turned into a lasting settlement remains an open question amid the competing pressures from Israel, Gulf states, and domestic politics in Washington.

RELATED:

Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Market Prices In Iran Deal For Yet Another Day

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:25

Centrus Jumps On Deal To Supply Oklo With Domestically-Produced Uranium

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Centrus Jumps On Deal To Supply Oklo With Domestically-Produced Uranium

Centrus Energy continues to solidify its role as a cornerstone of America's emerging advanced nuclear sector, today announcing a letter of intent with Oklo to provide domestically produced high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for the company's next generation of nuclear reactors, according to a release from the company's website.

Shares the domestic enricher jumped more than 6% this morning.

Under the proposed multi-year agreement, Centrus will begin supplying HALEU in 2029 to support up to five Oklo Aurora powerhouses, including reactors planned for Oklo's 1.2-gigawatt clean energy campus in Ohio. The fuel is expected to be produced at Centrus' enrichment facility in Pike County, Ohio, highlighting the growing importance of domestic nuclear fuel infrastructure.

The agreement represents a meaningful milestone for the broader advanced reactor industry. One of the largest challenges facing nuclear developers has been securing reliable access to HALEU, a specialized fuel required by many next-generation reactor designs. With global commercial HALEU production historically concentrated in Russia and China, the development of a U.S.-based supply chain has become a national priority.

Centrus has emerged as the top solution to this challenge. By establishing itself as a domestic source of HALEU, the company is helping address a critical bottleneck that has limited deployment of advanced nuclear technologies across the United States.

The deal is a confirmation of what we said a year ago: in a country starved for domestically-produced HALEU, Centrus will outperform, even though sometimes the market is somewhat obtuse and slow in figuring even the most obvious stuff.

A year later, market starting to get it https://t.co/91bUOLoS1m pic.twitter.com/TvZGJCf0PR
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2026

The proposed agreement also reinforces growing confidence in Centrus' production capabilities and strengthens its visibility as advanced reactor developers move closer to commercialization. As demand for clean, reliable baseload power continues to accelerate, Centrus appears increasingly well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of the U.S. nuclear energy ecosystem.

With advanced reactor companies such as Oklo advancing toward deployment and domestic fuel supply becoming an essential national objective, Centrus' role as a leading HALEU supplier could become a significant driver of long-term growth and strategic relevance within the nuclear energy industry.

Centrus President and CEO Amir Vexler commented: “Today’s announcement is an important step toward ensuring reliable HALEU supply for next generation reactors and represents a crucial milestone as we work to restore America’s ability to enrich uranium at scale. By connecting advanced nuclear power generation and customer demand with domestic HALEU production in southern Ohio, this agreement helps establish a foundation for a new U.S. advanced nuclear energy hub.”

Other nuclear stocks are also on the rise, with Energy Fuels up almost 17% and reactor manufacturers NuScale Power and NANO Nuclear Energy up about 3% and 5%, respectively.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:00

The Treaty Of Versailles

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:40:00 +0000

The Treaty Of Versailles

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday, President Trump signed the US-Iran MoU in Versailles. It’s not a treaty, but the parallel with the one signed by Germany there on June 28, 1919, is notable: post-WW1, French Marshal Foch is widely credited with saying, “This is not a peace. It is an armistice for twenty years,” because he saw it as too lenient on the loser of that war.

‘Bravo’ says Macron after Trump signs Iran MoU at Versailles dinner. ‘Great job’ pic.twitter.com/5nDjGku4xS
— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 17, 2026

This MoU is also lenient on Iran, who thinks it won, and again doesn’t look like peace, just an armistice for 20 weeks – which ends two days after the US midterm elections. Indeed, even as Trump was touting the importance of the deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” he underlined he’ll bomb Iran again if they don’t honor it.

Yet what they honor depends on whose MoU version you read. The 14-point text the US released to CNN differs in important regards from what Bloomberg was running with and the Iranian version:

Point 1: There is a link to Lebanon but not necessarily one that forces an Israeli withdrawal. The text calls for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, and “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”, which technically a temporary Israeli security presence does not prevent any more than heavily armed Hezbollah --counter to UN resolutions and the government’s proclamations-- does. Regardless, the IDF is so far saying it won’t withdraw.
Point 5: The US says Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.” Iran says it will charge on day 61, but can that also be read that the passage is for 60 days, which would then need to be extended? The placing of a comma there could be the literal meme ‘NO MORE WAR’ > ‘NO, MORE WAR.’ The text also says Iran “will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran is taking that to mean that it can charge ‘service fees’; yet international law and GCC states may think otherwise when this is discussed.
Point 8: The two sides “have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA.” That additional clause is key, and while a step back vs. earlier US uranium demands is a clear deliverable else this all falls apart. Is Iran going to blink here?

Trump also thanked China and Russia for remaining “neutral” in the war, adding “it’s OK” for Iran to have some ballistic missiles, as the Wall Street Journal estimates Iran could earn up $60bn from oil revenues ahead. What that’s spent on (reconstruction, Chinese or Russian arms, or shaheed drone factories to use locally and send to Russia, etc.) is also critical.

Understandably, Iran hawks are lamenting this all as a “disaster” or “catastrophe.” Even Bloomberg underlines what was flagged here months ago: if this MoU is a TACO not a can-kicking exercise until November, it will “unravel geopolitics”, the US creating a power vacuum others will try to fill.

That’s as South Korea’s President Lee just asked Trump to solve the North Korea issue… but they already have a nuke, so what do they get given – access to Anthropic AI?

As all is in flux, the US is also working with Europe to again back Ukraine, whose drone tech now means they hold some good cards, even as the EU reopens official communication channels with the Kremlin. It seems likely that US sanctions could soon go back on Russian oil, which would see the energy complex reshuffled again.

In market terms, the IEA is now seeing a gradual Hormuz recovery tipping into a significant 2027 oil surplus, flipping the narrative entirely – unless war restarts in 20 weeks. Most things remain a passenger to that dynamic.

Ironically, but as expected, the market is trading that possible Mou TACO as dollar positive even as it actually undermines the global architecture that holds the dollar up: but since when did FX look at the long term?

In other geoeconomics, as Europe seems set for a sustained trade war vs. China ahead, the G7 agreed to set up a critical minerals alliance platform to cut their reliance on China – which, as explained here before, logically implies trade decoupling downstream too and the emergence of geopolitical trade blocs.

Meanwhile, in a changing world, the Fed under Chair Warsh is ripping treaties up, not signing them. As our US strategist notes, the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected, with an easing bias dropped, but with an unusually short statement. Indeed, Warsh just terminated forward guidance – which is arguably not such a bad idea given what happens in the Middle East is pivotal to what happens to inflation, and central banks have no idea at all about what will transpire there(?)

In cyclical terms, the June Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his.

More importantly, in structural terms, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications (is so much needed?); the balance sheet (is so much needed?); improving data (more, better is needed, and Warsh prefers real-time numbers over backwards looking surveys); productivity and jobs (will AI allow for rate cuts?); and inflation frameworks (where things will get even more interesting).

Just as many suspect there is more drama ahead in Hormuz, and that it will never go back to being what it was until recently, the same may be true for the Fed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:40

Accenture Crashes Most On Record As AI Threatens Consulting Demand

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:10:00 +0000

Accenture Crashes Most On Record As AI Threatens Consulting Demand

Accenture shares crashed by the most on record in premarket trading on a confluence of issues. First, the company's fourth-quarter revenue outlook missed Bloomberg consensus estimates and third-quarter bookings declined, reinforcing investors' belief that consulting demand is declining in the era of AI adoption across corporate America, which is wreaking havoc in the white-collar job market.

The global consulting and technology services company, which helps large corporations and governments with strategy, IT, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and more, guided August-quarter revenue to a range of $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, below the $18.47 billion figure that analysts tracked by Bloomberg were forecasting. Third-quarter bookings fell to $19.3 billion, down from $19.7 billion a year earlier, while revenue rose to $18.7 billion, slightly below estimates. EPS increased 9% to $3.80.

Here's a snapshot of 3Q earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

EPS $3.80 vs. $3.49 y/y

Revenue $18.7 billion, +5.6% y/y, estimate $18.76 billion

Communications, Media & Technology revenue $3.22 billion, +10% y/y, estimate $3.2 billion

Financial Services revenue $3.49 billion, +6.4% y/y, estimate $3.54 billion

Product revenue $5.67 billion, +6.1% y/y, estimate $5.67 billion

Health & Public Service revenue $3.85 billion, +1.8% y/y, estimate $3.82 billion

Resources revenue $2.50 billion, +3.4% y/y, estimate $2.54 billion

Bookings $19.32 billion, -1.9% y/y, estimate $20.66 billion

Consulting new bookings $10.26 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $9.54 billion

Managed Services new bookings $9.06 billion, -15% y/y, estimate $11.12 billion

Gross margin 32.8% vs. 32.9% y/y, estimate 32.9%

Free cash flow $3.60 billion, +2.9% y/y

Operating cash flow $3.79 billion, +2.8% y/y, estimate $3.06 billion

Snapshot of 4Q forecast:

Sees revenue $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, estimate $18.47 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue +1% to +5%

Full-Year Forecast:

Sees revenue +3% to +4%, saw +3% to +5%

Sees adjusted EPS $13.78 to $13.90, saw $13.65 to $13.90

Sees effective tax rate 24% to 25%, saw 23.5% to 25.5%

Still sees operating cash flow $11.5 billion to $12.2 billion

Still sees free cash flow $10.8 billion to $11.5 billion

Beyond earnings, one major issue plaguing Accenture is investor confidence in the business model. Morgan Stanley downgraded Accenture to Equal-weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to $177 from $240, arguing that the anticipated boost to IT services spending from artificial intelligence investments has yet to materialize, as enterprises continue to prioritize AI projects over traditional discretionary technology spending.

Crucially, "we are not seeing the budget growth inflection we had previously expected," the analysts wrote.

Morgan Stanley is not the first to sound the alarm on declining IT consulting demand. In March, Jefferies analyst Surinder Thind told clients there was limited evidence of a recovery in customer appetite, directly contradicting management's upbeat commentary.

Accenture shares crashed the most on record, down 16% in the early cash session.

What goes up must go down.

Emergence of OpenAI's ChatGPT (news headlines) vs. ACN stock price.

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts have 17 "Buy" ratings, 12 "Neutral" ratings, and zero "Sell" ratings on the stock. The 12-month average price target is $236.

Thind called the latest earnings disappointing. "Questions around the resiliency of demand in an AI-first world are likely to be amplified," he said, adding, "especially in light of recent advancements in AI models and agentic capabilities."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:10

Both Parents Work Full-Time In Majority Of Families, Census Data Show

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:00:00 +0000

Both Parents Work Full-Time In Majority Of Families, Census Data Show

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Both parents work full-time in more than half of couples with children under 18, according to newly analyzed data.

Fifty-two percent of couples comprised of a mother and father work full-time jobs as of 2025, according to the Pew Research Center analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau released on June 16.

That percentage is an increase from 46 percent in 2015 and 31 percent in 1975.

Black mothers are still the most likely to be in a couple where both she and the father work, according to an analysis broken down by race. Sixty percent of black mothers are in such a partnership, down slightly from 64 percent in 2000.

Majorities of white, 54 percent, and Asian, 52 percent, women with children are for the first time in couples comprised of two working parents. Hispanic women are still more likely to be in a couple with only one working parent.

Mothers with lower levels of education are the most likely to be in a couple in which the dad works full-time, and the mom is not employed, according to the analysis.

That figure was 30 percent for mothers with, at most, some college education, compared to 21 percent for mothers with bachelor’s degrees and 11 percent for mothers with postgraduate degrees.

Across all couples with minor children, the percentage in which the father works full-time and the mother is not employed declined from 42 percent in 1975 to 23 percent in 2025.

In another 15 percent of couples, the father works full-time and the mother works part-time. In five percent, the father works part-time or is not employed, and the mother has a full-time job. And in the remaining five percent, there is some other arrangement.

Many parents view their family’s financial situation as positive, according to a Pew survey conducted in March, provided the mother works at least part-time. For parents in couples where the dad works full time, and the mother does not have a job, only 19 percent said their financial situation is positive, and 41 percent said it is negative.

Adults in those couples were the most likely to say that the work arrangement was positive for their children’s well-being. Eighty-five percent did. Just 49 percent of parents in couples where both mothers and fathers work full-time answered the same.

Some 52 percent of the respondents also said their job makes it harder to be a good parent, and 45 percent said that being a parent has made it difficult to advance at work.

Additionally, 62 percent of mothers who work full-time expressed frustration with balancing work and family responsibilities, compared with 47 percent of fathers who work full-time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:00

"The Impact was Devastating": Chicago's Cross-Burning Was Set By Liberal, Anti-Trump Protester

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:20:39 +0000

"The Impact was Devastating": Chicago's Cross-Burning Was Set By Liberal, Anti-Trump Protester

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

After the Southern Poverty Law Center scandal of actually funding and encouraging racist protests, it appears that at least one individual has created his own orchestrated racist incident.

In Chicago (where Jussie Smollett committed his infamous racist hoax), a burning cross was denounced by Mayor Brandon Johnson as a sign of the racism in society.

Johnson, however, refused to address the fact that the cross burning was actually the work of an anti-Trump liberal student.

University of Illinois senior Merlin Lu said it was never intended as a racist symbol, but the question is whether it could still be charged as a hate crime.

In posting a reward for the culprit soon after the incident, Rev. Michael Pfleger declared that “this bold rise of racism must be condemned by every race, faith community, and Chicagoan as was done with the swastika and treated as a hate crime.”

It turns out that this was not evidence of the rise of racism but another possible hoax.

Lu bizarrely claimed that he was unaware that a burning cross had racist connotations and insisted that there was no racist message intended.

Others suspected that this was a type of false-flag effort to outrage the left.

Johnson later denounced the incident as a “symbol of hatred is one that we must continue to reject, and I wholeheartedly reject it. I can’t speak to anyone’s motives; I can only speak to the impact, and the impact was devastating.”

It seems curious that Johnson would not “speak to motives” when he knows that this was set by a leftist radical.

The question is whether it is still a hate crime under Illinois law. Under Section 12-7.1, the law states:

(a) A person commits hate crime when, by reason of the actual or perceived race, color, creed, religion, ancestry, gender, sexual orientation, physical or mental disability, citizenship, immigration status, or national origin of another individual or group of individuals, regardless of the existence of any other motivating factor or factors, he or she commits assault, battery, aggravated assault, intimidation, stalking, cyberstalking, misdemeanor theft, criminal trespass to residence, misdemeanor criminal damage to property, criminal trespass to vehicle, criminal trespass to real property, mob action, disorderly conduct, transmission of obscene messages, harassment by telephone, or harassment through electronic communications as these crimes are defined in Sections 12-1, 12-2, 12-3(a), 12-7.3, 12-7.5, 16-1, 19-4, 21-1, 21-2, 21-3, 25-1, 26-1, 26.5-1, 26.5-2, paragraphs (a)(1), (a)(2), and (a)(3) of Section 12-6, and paragraphs (a)(2) and (a)(5) of Section 26.5-3 of this Code, respectively.

The notable language is “regardless of the existence of any other motivating factor or factors.” The inclusion of property damage could allow a charge to be brought.

The case could rekindle the debate over intent for threats. Many professors and pundits on the left have long argued that the standard should be how a message is received rather than how it is intended. That issue arose in the decision in Counterman v. Colorado, 600 U.S. 66 (2023), concerning the standard for the “true threats” exception to the First Amendment. In an opinion written by Justice Elena Kagan, the Court reversed the conviction. While rejecting an “objective” standard, the Court declared that such cases had to be based on evidence of the defendant’s state of mind under a “subjective standard.” Accordingly, the government must prove recklessness, but not necessarily intent: “The State must show that the defendant consciously disregarded a substantial risk that his communications would be viewed as threatening violence.”

Recklessness would be a dangerous standard for the defense of Merlin Liu. He insists that he was entirely clueless about what a burning cross represents in our culture. Yet, if Chicago does not bring a hate crime charge, it could be cited in future cases in suggesting that intent or “motivating factors” do matter in such cases.

I have favored stronger scienter or intent standards in true threat cases. It seems like a hate crime should, at a minimum, also be based on an intent to cause such alarm or fear. That does not mean that Liu’s defense of ignorance will work. However, in my view, prosecutors should have to show more than how others perceive a protest.

Unlike Johnson, the prosecutors and the Court will have to “speak to motivations” before this case is concluded.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:20

Energy Cliff, Supply Chain Shock: The Toxic Cocktail Behind The Urgent Push For An Iran Deal

Tyler Durden — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:00:00 +0000

Energy Cliff, Supply Chain Shock: The Toxic Cocktail Behind The Urgent Push For An Iran Deal

The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning. Tanker traffic through the critical waterway is slowly resuming, though a full return to pre-war or near-pre-war energy flows could take months.

But behind the urgency to get the memorandum of understanding deal across the finish line were two uncomfortable realities.

First, President Trump recently met with oil and gas executives, who likely informed the administration that the conflict and the shuttered Hormuz maritime chokepoint were leading to an energy cliff that would materialize by mid-summer.

On Wednesday at the G7 Summit in France, Trump acknowledged the uncomfortable truth that SPRs used to offset lost Gulf energy production were being drained at an alarming rate.

"We run out of reserves in about four weeks," Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been "bedlam" pic.twitter.com/k45MTI8sNs
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2026

The latest Department of Energy data showed Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That's the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially 'tank-bottoms', the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate.

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Second, the physical disruption in global supply chains had begun spreading beyond energy flows and into shipping costs, threatening to transmit the Hormuz crisis into broader goods inflation.

Last month, UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade warned, "Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic." This prompted Lafourcade to re-launch the Global Supply Chain Stress Index.

Earlier this morning, Lafourcade warned in a new note that "supply chain stress spreads to shipping cost" and that "continues to rise."

He continued:

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has continued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month's values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022. This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has After a slow reaction to the conflict, shipping costs are now accelerating The indicator is constructed as the cross‑sectional average of z-scored series—a first-order approximation to the data's first principal component. Figure 2 overleaf shows the contributions over the past four months. The indicator most directly capturing the supply-shock nature of the Hormuz bottleneck is our measure of seaborne oil and gas flows (shown on the right of the figure, with the sign flipped to indicate rising stress). All other components reflect the shock more indirectly. Oil and gas shipping volumes have dropped even more from the immediate post-closure lows, while the volume of other cargo shipping has bounced back somewhat from earlier lows (see here for our latest read on global tracking). Delivery times and air-freight costs deteriorated primarily in March and April, with little additional movement since. Initially, supply chain stress appeared relatively contained and concentrated in these indicators. However, shipping costs now seem to be responding with a lag: after little change in March and April, prices have ramped up noticeably in May and June to date, across all major reporters (Baltic, Harper Petersen, Drewry, and Freightos).ntinued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month's values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022.

This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

If SPRs are drained and supply chain stress keeps rising, the global economy moves from a manageable disruption to a stagflationary shock. That would send energy prices higher, create weaker fuel demand, lead to margin compression for companies, and eventually risk a recession.

The sequence of disasters that could've unfolded:

1. Energy prices reprice violently higher

2. Shipping costs feed into goods inflation

3. Corporate margins get squeezed

4. Consumers get hit

5. Central banks face the stagflation trap

6. Emerging markets falter

7. Global equities shift into recession pricing

These two pressures help explain why the Trump administration moved urgently to secure an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate goal was to normalize tanker flows and avert an energy cliff as SPR buffers came under pressure. The second objective is to stop the Hormuz disruption from spilling deeper into global supply chains, where rising shipping costs, longer transit times, and tighter effective vessel capacity were beginning to transmit the shock beyond energy markets and into the broader global economy.

Professional subscribers can read more about the global supply chain and the Strait of Hormuz on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:00