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A "Surprising" Poll: Obama leads McCain by 7

by: Brian Leubitz

Fri May 23, 2008 at 17:07:58 PM PDT


Hey, did you think Barack Obama was beating John McCain? Well, you might be "surprised"! Check back in a couple of hours for the shocker:

A new L.A. Times/KTLA poll tested the proposition in McCain matchups with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And in at least one of the scenarios, the results may surprise many folks.

We aren't at liberty to reveal the exact results yet; for that, check out our homepage (latimes.com) about 5 p.m. EDT today (2 p.m. PDT).(LA Times blog 5/23/08)

And so, dutifully, I check back.  Whoa...it says the same thing as the PPIC poll! I am blown away by...by...well, I'm not.

Obama led McCain in the poll, 47-40%; in a Clinton matchup with the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, she got 43%, he held steady at 40%. (LA Times blog 5/23/08)

This poll is substantially closer than the very comfy lead that Obama held against McCain in the PPIC poll, but nonetheless, this is hardly shocking.  I did find the sub-headline in the LA Times article interesting, quite similar to what I had said the other day about the "big states" argument: "Clinton would also defeat McCain in the fall, but by a smaller margin. The numbers undercut Clinton's argument that she is the Democrat best able to deliver big states in the general election."

Brian Leubitz :: A "Surprising" Poll: Obama leads McCain by 7
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Readers here might be interested in this.... (0.00 / 0)
.............site: http://hominidviews.com/?p=1508 which uses Monte Carlo simulations taking into account many, many polls. The link goes to the EC map for Clinton vs. McSame.....

Be sure and check the Obama vs. McSame simulation......heh....snort....

I'll be a happy to entertain all flying objects and childish tirades at my blog....

Not here though, this link is to let folks know that there is a large body of polling and analysis of the GE out there and if you want to be an informed citizen it behoves you to....

Think for yourself, take nothing for granted and above all....

Fight Back!


Actually, here's the new poll info from Quinnipiac that bolsters the Clinton argument: (0.00 / 0)
, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the leading Democratic presidential contender, trails Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican candidate, in Florida and Ohio, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. Sen. Obama is six points ahead in Pennsylvania. New York Sen. Clinton wins handily in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 41 percent; McCain leads Obama 45 - 41 percent;
Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 41 percent; McCain tops Obama 44 - 40 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 50 - 37 percent; Obama leads McCain 46 - 40 percent.

(Steve Maviglio/Speakers Office)

O Ohio (5.00 / 1)
Hmm, well let's say the data is mxed. Here is a SUSA poll from yesterday w/ Obama up 9:

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Shouldn't 3 strikes apply to Arnold? Strike 1, Strike 2, Strike 3. Life Sentence!


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