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Some Legislative Numbers Of Interest

by: David Dayen

Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 21:21:30 PM PDT


SD-03: With 70.4% in, Nation 28.4, Leno 43.6, Migden 28. Note by Julia: Just about all of SF is now in and a lot is outstanding from Marin and Sonoma, so expect that gap to close.
SD-05: Lois Wolk has been declared the winner by the AP.
SD-09: Very early but Loni Hancock is up 71-29.
SD-19: Hannah-Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland are both running unopposed, but right now Strickland only has 2,500 more votes.  That should bear watching.
SD-23: Pavley up 61-39 on Lloyd Levine.
SD-25: Dymally up 46-33 on Rod Wright.
SD-33: Mimi Walters has been declared the winner.  She'll face Ellinoiranne's husband Gary Pritchard.

AD-08: Mariko Yamada and Chris Cabaldon in a 51-49 dogfight.
AD-10: Alyson Huber up 65-35 with 43% in.  She'll take this.
AD-14: Nancy Skinner is up but it's early.
AD-15: Joan Buchanan is up 66-34, and on the GOP side it's a crapshoot.
AD-19: Gina Papan by about 200 votes right now.
AD-27: Bill Monning is leading but very early.
AD-37: Ferial Masry up 64-36 with just 1% in.
AD-40: Bob Blumenfield up 45-25-23 over Healey and Waldman.

More in a bit.

[UPDATE by Robert] With 38% reporting AD-80 has Pettis up by 500 votes on Perez, with Gonzales at 20% and Gutierrez at 11%. Gonna be a close one.
David Dayen :: Some Legislative Numbers Of Interest
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Some Legislative Numbers Of Interest | 31 comments
SD-09 (0.00 / 0)
Curious where you are getting results.   Sec of State shows nothing.  Whole district is in Alameda County and County Registrar shows Hancock leading 54-45 but nothing is in except absentees.  

John McCain Wants to Overturn Roe v. Wade
I'm wondering the same thing (0.00 / 0)
about the Hancock Chan numbers.
[ Parent ]
AP (0.00 / 0)
has them:

link.

They've consistently been the fastest tonight.

[ Parent ]
they might be ahead on other races (0.00 / 0)
but they're way off on this one. Alameda County's site has counted 10 times as many votes as AP.

[ Parent ]
Great Minds (0.00 / 0)
Looks like great minds are posting tonight.  

John McCain Wants to Overturn Roe v. Wade
[ Parent ]
No. (0.00 / 0)
Look at the number of votes.  Your link and the ones i mentioned all show zero precincts counted.  Your site shows the total as 2,588-1,071, but the Alameda Co. Registrar shows the count as Hancock 23,147 Chan 19,045.
http://www.acgov.org/rov/curre...

Bottom line is that we are only looking at absentees.  

Good thing about this race is both candidates are great.  (I voted for Hancock.)

John McCain Wants to Overturn Roe v. Wade

[ Parent ]
good to see wolk outpolling aghazarian (0.00 / 0)
i'm pleasantly surprised that yamada is still ahead. barely anything from yolo is out yet (mostly absentees), but it's really close, like 50.7 to 49.3.

we could win this thing.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

yamada (0.00 / 0)
was up in her own polls last week, so lets keep our fingers crossed for.  is she wins solano by a few points that should be enough.  should...  
[ Parent ]
they've certainly been polling like mad (0.00 / 0)
i think i've been called something like 10 times at least, and possibly closer to 15.

i assumed by the frantic pace of mailers that it was closer than cabaldon was letting on. excellent.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

[ Parent ]
indeed (0.00 / 0)
the end of that campaign was a disgrace for both sides.  i like mariko, but her IE's were about on the same low level as the EdVoice folks.  really bad, mean-spirited stuff, out of place in a dem primary.  and since it's well known that tactics like that only depress turnout, it makes you wonder why a progressive candidate would support them... sigh.  
[ Parent ]
politics ain't beanbag (0.00 / 0)
honestly, i thought it was pretty tame, albeit kind of funny in terms of volume (but hey, it's better than the everyday junk mail i get...).

what pissed me off is people stealing my lawn signs, and cabaldon's last TV ad where he played like he was from davis. well, and the whole west sac democratic club stacking debacle.

it should be interesting to see how turnout ends up. some people were saying it could be as low as 15%, but at least in davis people are obsessed with local elections as much as national ones, if not more.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

[ Parent ]
Leno back on top (0.00 / 0)
oy, long night ahead...
2nd straight update with Leno up (0.00 / 0)
22.5% reporting:

Mark Leno 21,352 37.0 %
Carole Migden 15,747 27.2 %
Joe Nation 20,703 35.8 %

[ Parent ]
Inside the numbers (0.00 / 0)
San Francisco County Results
16.1% ( 53 of 328 ) precincts
reporting as of Jun. 3, 2008, at 9:42 p.m.

Mark Leno 10,278 54.3 %
Carole Migden 6,389 33.7 %
Joe Nation 2,292 12.0 %

Marin County Results
32.8% ( 62 of 189 ) precincts
reporting as of Jun. 3, 2008, at 9:42 p.m.

Mark Leno 8,297 33.1 %
Carole Migden 5,590 22.2 %
Joe Nation 11,202 44.7 %

Sonoma County Results
23.6% ( 34 of 144 ) precincts
reporting as of Jun. 3, 2008, at 9:47 p.m.

Mark Leno 2,777 20.1 %
Carole Migden 3,768 27.4 %
Joe Nation 7,209 52.5 %


Disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign. These opinions are my own and are not necessarily those of my employer.  

[ Parent ]
And this just in: Total as of 9:47 (0.00 / 0)
Mark Leno 8,297 33.1 %
Carole Migden 5,590 22.2 %
Joe Nation 11,202 44.7 %

Disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign. These opinions are my own and are not necessarily those of my employer.  
[ Parent ]
CORRECTION: That's Marin (0.00 / 0)
That's just Marin as of 9:47.

Apologies for the lack of clarity.

Disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign. These opinions are my own and are not necessarily those of my employer.  

[ Parent ]
Well (0.00 / 0)
that is damn good to see all of those SF precincts withstanding.  Based on that Mark should hold on to his lead.
[ Parent ]
Yep (0.00 / 0)
Based on my spreadsheet, he should expand the lead, in fact.

Of course, there are some simplifying assumptions in my spreadsheet, like the notion that the county percentages will remain somewhat stable.

These opinions are my own, and are not representative of those of any of my employers.

[ Parent ]
Leno has the lead back (0.00 / 0)
By tha way, I am very unhappy with the SF Chronicle and its lack of coverage.
yeah (0.00 / 0)
All the Bay Area papers are slacking tonight.
[ Parent ]
what's up with Alameda County? (0.00 / 0)
they've only counted absentee, and they haven't even reported a single vote to the state. What's taking so long?
Same here on the Central Coast (0.00 / 0)
Hand counting of votes, most likely. Things are proceeding at a snail's pace in Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
[ Parent ]
here in yolo (0.00 / 0)
i've begin to suspect that they're transporting them by bicycle to the county seat in an attempt to be CA's first carbon neutral election.

i feel like one of those lab rats, hitting the bar for food. refresh! REFRESH!

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

[ Parent ]
Yep (0.00 / 0)
I prefer slow and accurate counting to quick and wildly inaccurate counts, but it also puts a cramp on the parties - folks here are gathered for Jane Parker but we may not know the results until the early morning hours. Damnable 2 AM closing time...

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
[ Parent ]
that's the advantage of watching returns from one's couch (0.00 / 0)
no last call. heh.

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat
[ Parent ]
numbers in Alameda are finally trickling in (0.00 / 0)
There are several Oakland City Council races that may be headed for run offs in November... still too early to know. The candidate I volunteered for, Rebecca Kaplan, has a huge lean, but the at large race is certain to go to run off. Now we just have to find out whether she'll go up against Hammill or Killian.
[ Parent ]
Go Fran Go!!! (0.00 / 0)
eom
Leno's way up! (0.00 / 0)
43.6% to Nation's 28.4!