Peak Oil and what to do about it

I'm finally able to write this post, and not get raised eyebrows and glances that say "I think she's a weirdo!" Or maybe I will get those glances, but I'll write anyway.

You see, just a year ago, when petrol was $70 a barrel, people laughed at Peak Oil. It was the theory of the fringes. But now, with petrol close to $150 a barrel and 'experts' suggesting that it might even go as high as $200 a barrel by Christmas, suddenly people are listening.

It's one thing to acknowledge change, and another to know what to do about it. So I'm going to make some suggestions, and explain what my family and I are doing and why. Then go ahead and tag us as lunatics by all means. Or not.

Please note: This is all my own planning and predictions. It is not financial or lifestyle advice. What you choose to make of this is up to you.

• If you are in a large city (anything above about 200,000 people counts as large in my books), get out of it.
  
  Because:
  
  • In times of unrest and uncertainty, that's where the riots will be.
    
  • In shortages, getting food in without oil will be a BIG problem. And even if you're growing food on your quarter acre, don't think for a moment that 'government redistributions' or unofficial redistributions (theft) won't come in and grab what you have, or most of it. Read your history, and you'll probably agree with me.
    
  • In larger cities, you are less likely to know your neighbours, the people down the road, your Mayor, your officials, your police officers etc. That means less social cohesion which means people are more likely to steal, riot, and not support one another when times get tough.
    
  • In large cities, you are further away from the basic food chain of primary production. In Peak Oil collapse, 'service industries' devalue (forget your would-be career as a beautician and focus on being able to knit, store and grow food, and do basic medicine and first aid without pharmaceuticals) and primary food industries skyrocket in value.
    
  • There probably won't be oil for your car, your bike is more likely to get stolen (if you have one), and public transport will be massively overcrowded - if it works at all.
    
  • Any disease that comes to your town will be rampant, and drugs may be hard to obtain, if available at all. The likelihood of epidemics will skyrocket, and large population centers will - as always - be hardest hit.
    
  • Any burst water mains, problems with sewers etc., may remain unfixed. Correct sewerage combined with germ theory is the real reason human life expectancy increased this last century. Modern drugs and medicine had very little to do with it. Modern cities may soon become disease-ridden stinkholes.
    
  • Violence and crime tend to be exacerbated in areas of poverty and high population density - which is what modern cities will be. Not good.
    
  
  

What we did: We did what I'm suggesting, trading a large city (nearly 4 million people) for a small one (120,000). We've left friends, family and two careers behind to do it. I'm that certain things are going to get rough.

Ensure you have your own independent water supply, separate from the water mains of your town.

Because:

• You can't live without water. Australian cities are now so desperate for water that they're building desalination plants, which will run partly on coal. I don't know what the governments think will happen when the oil runs low, and coal can no longer be transported to the desal plants, or even be dug out the ground. Exit their ridiculous water strategy.
  
• Water supplies can be interrupted. All sorts of major upheavals can disrupt water supplies. And town water supplies are an obvious and easy target for terrorist groups and war tactics.
  
• Mains water can and does get contaminated. Several world cities have water rations (e.g. most of Australia's cities are rationed), leaving citizens with no water supply of their own with no ability to grow their own food.
  

What we did: We moved from an area experiencing severe drought and climate change to one where we can literally harvest enough water for our survival needs by putting out collecting vessels each night. Our area also has many pristine mountain streams nearby, and a free access natural spring within 500 metres (1/3rd mile).

Which brings me to...

Grow your own food.

Because:

• Food isn't getting any cheaper. Even if I'm TOTALLY wrong about all this, you'll have fun, get fit, and save money. It's also the cheapest way to get organic food.
  
• You'll learn valuable skills. The future we're facing is one where we'll almost ALL have to get real close to our food supply. Get the skills you'll need now.
  

What we did: We're learning to grow food, for the first time. We're currently seeking a house and land to buy, and will be setting in fruit trees, a veggie plot, a woodlot, chickens, bees, and possibly ducks and goats.

And in case you're worried about your food getting nicked...

Get involved in the Transition Towns movement.

Because:

• You can't rely on guns and spam. Your whole community needs to stably transition to a no-oil future, or you're sunk. To do this, you need planning, infrastructure, and community support.
  
• Trust me, guns and spam won't work. It really won't. Read about the Hippy back to the landers from the 60s. You simply can't grow everything, grind your own flour, raise your own kids, make everything you need, harvest everything, and stay sane. That's why humans live in communities (d'oh!).
  
• Forget the guns and spam. Really.
  
• Here's the Transition Towns links:
  
  • Transition Towns Wiki
    
  • Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa
    
  
  

What we did: We're involved in the Transition Towns movement, and are getting the ball rolling in our community. We're also working closely with some long-time friends, and have been doing what we can to let people know about Peak Oil, Climate Change, and the Transition Towns movement.

Make like a Mormon, and create a food storage for a minimum of three months, depending on the season.

Because:

• If the oil supplies get interrupted, supermarkets could be out of food within a WEEK. Most supermarkets only keep enough food on shelf for three days for their local area. I can't emphasize this enough. How long would your family last on the food you currently have? A few days? A few weeks?
  
• Mormon philosophy suggests that all families keep a large supply of food for the end times. While I don't think Peak Oil is the End Times, I do think it is wise for any person to not bet their entire life on the belief that the supermarket will always provide. Have a Plan B, and store at least enough food for 3 months, which is what it would take to grow enough to get crops up and raised from scratch. You would also want to stockpile any vital medicines and possibly multivitamins as well.
  
• This is just common-sense. The wise person plans for hard times, just in case. There are a host of great Mormon websites listing what to stockpile and how to go about doing this without breaking the bank. Google them.
  
• Here are a few links to get you started:
  
  • How to stockpile food
    
  • Wall Street Journal - yep, even they recommend it!
    
  • Food storage on no budget
    
  
  

What we did: Well, I like to think I'm wise, so yes, we have a Plan B in place already, and are advising friends to do the same.

Get out of debt.

Because: Interest rates could start spiralling, and banks are likely to start freefalling, calling their debts in to try to stop this happening. You don't want to be thrown out of your home now, do you?

What we did: We sold our home in a big city, which we only partly owned. With what we had saved, we should be able to own something reasonable here in this smaller town, with only a small mortgage, if any. In other words, we literally moved countries to get out of debt.

Get a decent education. By this, I mean practical, useful skills. Forget that degree in sociology, that qualification in English Lit., that Masters Degree in Economics, that Law Degree. I'm talking learning how to milk a cow, grow food, fix a bike, ride a horse, fix plumbing, build a composting toilet, mend a fence, chop down a tree safely for firewood.

Because: What you thought you knew, or needed to know, will likely be next to useless. We're about to learn what practical and useful really are. And it isn't Administrative skills or fast typing.

• This is one area that you can work on while you continue in your current job. Get serious about reskilling now. Think about your personal strengths, and focus on how to transition them for an oil-free future in a small town. Medical professionals and farmers have it easy - their skills will change, but not that much. But we will need everything from bakers and brewers to millers and small businesspeople of all types. Globalisation is about to end, and this could be a wonderful thing for those caught in the middle of society.
  
  What we did: We're reskilling. I'm learning so many skills that it is overwhelming at times, but still haven't found my place in the new world - yet. I'm startig to have ideas. At the moment I'm grappling with a combination of angers - mostly the wish that I'd learned useful skills, including budgeting, from my parents and society. All I seemed to have learned until I took my life into my own hands recently was how to shop, look pretty (and I wasn't much good at that), and write elegant prose. I wish I'd learned woodworking, and animal husbandry, and gardening for food, and saving every cent in the budget, and living on a shoestring even when you don't have to. But now I'm learning to stop wishing for what might have been, and I'm focusing squarely on a productive and practical future. I'm still not elderly, and there's time even until the sun sets today to learn a little. The key is starting now.
  

Keep positive. We're facing the hardest of hard times. I'm pretty sure that most of us will not make it through the next ten years. I think we're headed for a die off of massive propertions. That could be grim news, but it doesn't have to be, if you plan and work towards making sure you're not one of those who goes down when the sun sets.

THE DOCTOR: It's been good though, hasn't it? All of us? All of it? Everything we did?...Blimey!

- Dr Who, Journey's End

We can mourn the fact that the world is changing, or we can accept the fact that change was inevitable. The Age Of Oil is drawing to a close, and some of it was glorious, but the new world that is coming now is up to us.

"Time is change
Change is Time
Change is the Way of the Goddess"

- Traditional Pagan hymn.

Change is the way of all things. If we try to stop it, we will fail. But by being prepared, we may be able to grow and flourish, bringing light to even the darkest of places.

"And the light shines on in the darkness, and the darkness has never put it out."

- John 1:5, The Bible (New Testament)

Have faith. The world is beautiful.