In response to the collapse of Labour's vote on May 1st, some Labour members have taken up an old rallying call. They claim Labour lost because they have become disconnected from their working class vote and a shift to the left would inspire those voters to once again vote Labour, strengthening Labour's position. It is a classic core vote strategy of appealing to the party's voter base instead of the whole electorate.
This strategy is fallacy. The working class have never won Labour elections and never will. Historically, between one-third and one-half of the working class have voted Conservative. Furthermore, that working class has been declining for decades. More people are entering ABC1 professions and fewer are identifying themselves with the Labour Party. The weak 'working class' core vote Labour once had has been eroding as the country has become more affluent. At best, Labour's core vote rests around 30 per cent of the electorate and is not entirely working class. Even if a core vote strategy would win that entire 30 per cent back to Labour, there would still be a gulf between Labour and Conservative votes.
Class based politics have always been too generalised, seeking to conflate individuals in similar situations into a homogeneous entity with consistent voting patterns. Class based voting has rarely been accurate, and the Labour vote has never been wholely of a single class (similarly, the Labour movement has never been exclusively a labour movement). Now, when class identity is increasingly becoming an irrelevance, such an outdated strategy will be unsuccessful and will only raise spectres of class warfare. Appealing to a 'working class' will alienate the majority of votes who identify themselves as middle class.
This is a strategy borne of conservative thinking. It looks back to halcyon days when the honest working class would duly elect a Labour government and all would be well in the world. Under this thinking, modernity has robbed Labour of its vote and Labour need to act in a traditional manner to win it back. The future looks bleak for such Labour conservatives, so they look back at what they believe used to work.
There is a good reason the Labour Party modernised and appealed to the southern middle classes. It is because such voters win elections. Hence, Tony Blair appealed to the swing voters that decide elections and was successful. To abandon such middle class voters in favour of a mythical working class vote would only serve to further erode Labour support in the country. Blair knew, as all modernisers do, that victory lies with progressive swing-voters and wide appeals to the nation. It does not lie in class politics or core engagement.
Labour are tired and they are out-of-touch, but they are out-of-touch with the whole electorate rather than just the working class. The Party needs to reconnect with the electorate through competence and a clear direction not a core vote strategy bound for failure. The Labour Party has always brought together a wide coalition of voters and has not been an exclusively working class movement. It needs to remain broad in its appeal and progressive in its policies to win votes in the twenty-first century. A return to class politics will not win votes. A progressive Labour Party just might.
This strategy is fallacy. The working class have never won Labour elections and never will. Historically, between one-third and one-half of the working class have voted Conservative. Furthermore, that working class has been declining for decades. More people are entering ABC1 professions and fewer are identifying themselves with the Labour Party. The weak 'working class' core vote Labour once had has been eroding as the country has become more affluent. At best, Labour's core vote rests around 30 per cent of the electorate and is not entirely working class. Even if a core vote strategy would win that entire 30 per cent back to Labour, there would still be a gulf between Labour and Conservative votes.
Class based politics have always been too generalised, seeking to conflate individuals in similar situations into a homogeneous entity with consistent voting patterns. Class based voting has rarely been accurate, and the Labour vote has never been wholely of a single class (similarly, the Labour movement has never been exclusively a labour movement). Now, when class identity is increasingly becoming an irrelevance, such an outdated strategy will be unsuccessful and will only raise spectres of class warfare. Appealing to a 'working class' will alienate the majority of votes who identify themselves as middle class.
This is a strategy borne of conservative thinking. It looks back to halcyon days when the honest working class would duly elect a Labour government and all would be well in the world. Under this thinking, modernity has robbed Labour of its vote and Labour need to act in a traditional manner to win it back. The future looks bleak for such Labour conservatives, so they look back at what they believe used to work.
There is a good reason the Labour Party modernised and appealed to the southern middle classes. It is because such voters win elections. Hence, Tony Blair appealed to the swing voters that decide elections and was successful. To abandon such middle class voters in favour of a mythical working class vote would only serve to further erode Labour support in the country. Blair knew, as all modernisers do, that victory lies with progressive swing-voters and wide appeals to the nation. It does not lie in class politics or core engagement.
Labour are tired and they are out-of-touch, but they are out-of-touch with the whole electorate rather than just the working class. The Party needs to reconnect with the electorate through competence and a clear direction not a core vote strategy bound for failure. The Labour Party has always brought together a wide coalition of voters and has not been an exclusively working class movement. It needs to remain broad in its appeal and progressive in its policies to win votes in the twenty-first century. A return to class politics will not win votes. A progressive Labour Party just might.
4 comments:
Agree whole-heartedly: just written a similar piece on my blog (Cole not Dole). Glad there are at least a few sensible people out there...
I fear your wise words went well over the head of the average middleclass GC delegate.
GW Caerphilly.
But people have changed what they mean by Labour's 'core vote'. People aren't referring to a narrow class-based vote but a broad coalition. But it is a broad progressive coalition (as you appear to concede in your article); we have to show we're on the progressive side and deliver policies that a) directly and usefully impact on those people we might traditionally call our core vote and b) remind the rest of our broader vote - the progressive coalition that we require to win - what we exist for, and how we are a progressive, fair party.
That's not a bunkering-down core vote strategy, it's the only show in town.
You are misrepresenting my position comrade.
I am suggesting that Labour must recapture the sentiment of the broad population that we are doing the right thing, being reasonable for everyone yet targeted directly on the least well off, the excluded and where the need is greatest. Which either will be those voters or those who empathise with fairness over selfishness.
I am also suggesting that the interpretation of what happened on May 1 as a simple swing is rot. That triangulation for the benefit of a few thousands of swing voter has past its sell by date as a strategy.
And that Charisma Boy Cameron is a glib shyster flogging the Emperor's New Clothes.
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