OSU must overcome losing ways
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The results aren't bad. The team will go bowling every year for the foreseeable future, and there will be a few upsets here and there to get everyone excited. But this is still Oklahoma State. For all the money Pickens likes to throw at the program and for all the promise and potential, it's going to be next to impossible to ever overtake Oklahoma or Texas and be the star of the Big 12 South.
Oh sure, there might be one year here and there when everything works out the right way and the Cowboys could be the class of the division, sort of like Texas Tech might be this year. But the program has spent so much energy on getting fixed that it still needs time to prove it can be consistent.
Make no mistake about it, OSU has talent. One of the more athletic teams in the Big 12, there are tremendous measurable guys on both sides of the ball. The offense is explosive, and the defense, for all its problems, can run with anyone. But in the end, Oklahoma State still has to get over the mindset that it's Oklahoma State, and that comes with winning. Once the floodgates opened up, was there any question Texas was going to pull off the comeback in the 38-35 win over the Cowboys?
The offense will be able to score on anyone with QB Zac Robinson working behind one of the nation's most productive lines. The defense will be the issue with potential big problems against the run and a secondary that needs to prove it can hold down the nasty array of Big 12 quarterbacks. But again, the athleticism is there to move and run with anyone in the country.
Now it's time for OSU to be consistently better. The infrastructure is there thanks to Pickens' dough and efforts, and while Gundy's all-timer of a rant on the Bobby Reid situation turned out to be a fat load of beans, the program has a buzz. If the wins start coming, Oklahoma State could quickly turn into a power. Pickens won't rest until that happens.
What to look for on offense: Robinson's passing totals. Robinson threw for fewer than 200 yards in five games last year. The Georgia game doesn't really count since Reid was the starter, but OSU lost to Troy, Texas A&M and Oklahoma when Robinson struggled, and he had to run for 109 yards to overcome an 11-for-25 passing day in a close shave against Kansas State. On the flip-side, the Cowboys went 6-2 when Robinson threw for over 200 yards.
What to look for on defense: Better play from the defensive front. There wasn't a steady enough pass rush throughout last year, and it showed as the secondary got picked to shreds with star Big 12 passers getting 10 days to throw. There was a better push throughout the offseason, even without former starting ends Marque Fountain and Nathan Peterson, and the tackles, helped by JUCO transfer Swanson Miller, should be stiffer against the run.
This team will be much better if... the corners can start to lock down. Opposing passers did whatever they wanted to against the Big 12's worst pass defense. Forgetting about the 646 yards and five touchdowns Texas Tech's Graham Harrell put up, the only time top quarterbacks didn't put up big numbers was when the running game dominated, like the Oklahoma game when the Sooners ran for 307 yards. An improved pass rush should help, but the secondary has to be better and it has to come up with more big plays.
The Schedule: The non-conference schedule isn't a total breeze, but it's not exactly challenging against Washington State (in Seattle), Houston, Missouri State and Troy. As if the South schedule isn't hard enough, the Texas and Texas Tech games are on the road. Getting Iowa State from the North will help the cause, but that's offset by a road trip to Missouri and a horribly timed date at Colorado coming in mid-November after going to Lubbock to face the loaded Red Raiders. At least there's a week off before the Bedlam battle with Oklahoma.
Best Offensive Player: Junior QB Zac Robinson. Lost in the shuffle in a league with quarterbacks like Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, Todd Reesing, Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell, Robinson somewhat quietly put up a monster season. He got better as the year went on throwing just three interceptions over the final eight games with 15 touchdown passes over the span. He also shouldered more of the rushing workload over the second half of the season, which he'll likely have to do early on this year, too.
Best Defensive Player: Junior star Andre Sexton. There are several promising OSU defensive players ready to break out, like LB Patrick Lavine, CB Jacob Lacey and DE Derek Burton, but it's Sexton in the hybrid star position who should have the biggest year. Already an excellent safety, he should be able to make more plays and be more disruptive closer to the line.
Key player to a successful season: Junior LB Orie Lemon. Mostly an outside linebacker so far, Lemon beefed up a bit and will get the first look in the middle where he'll have to play big against the run early on. He'll have to hold off Justin Gent to keep the job, but if he plays up to his potential, he could be a breakout star.
The season will be a success if ... the Cowboys win 10 games. That might seem like a tall order for a team with so many issues, but the first half of the schedule is a relative breeze, and there are enough winnable home games to expect nothing less than an eight-win campaign. If OSU is ready to take the next step, it has to pull off some upsets over teams like Missouri and ...
Key game: Oct. 25 at Texas. Talk about your hang-ups, Oklahoma State can't seem to get past the Longhorns, even when it seems like it has the game in the bag. Texas has won 10 straight in the series, including last year's stunner when Jamaal Charles ran wild in the second half. Remember, the two teams weren't always in the same conference, so you have to go back to 1944 for the last time OSU won in Austin. If the Cowboys can win all their early home games, a win over Texas would likely mean an 8-1 start.
Offense
The machine will keep on rolling with little tinkering. There's no reason to mess with success, and with so much returning talent to the nation's seventh best attack, things will be kept as is with QB Zac Robinson leading the way behind a tremendous, deep line that might not have much in the way of star power but is as effective as any in the nation. There are some question marks at running back and receiver with JUCO transfer Beau Johnson needing to make the ground game explode while Dez Bryant needs to be a strong No. 1 receiver to go along with top pro prospect Brandon Pettigrew at tight end.
Quarterbacks: Now that Bobby Reid is gone, it's all Zac Robinson's show to run. He was stunningly good when thrown into the fire, and now he has to improve on his consistency while still serving as an occasional rushing threat. Alex Cate and Brandon Weeden need to see some live action to be prepared if Robinson, who takes some big hits, goes down. At 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Robinson has good size, excellent athleticism and good quickness, and now the former wide receiver should take the offense by the horns and become special. It's as simple as his accuracy. When he was on, like he was against Indiana, Texas and Baylor, the offense was unstoppable, but he struggled against Oklahoma and Kansas. He has to be consistent.
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| Keith Toston will play a big role in Oklahoma State's ground game. (Chris Graythen / Getty Images) |
Running Backs: The rushing attack that finished eighth in the nation last year will be effective again thanks to the running skills of QB Zac Robinson, but the backs needs to be more than just along for the ride. It won't necessarily be running back by committee, but Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston and Beau Johnson will each see plenty of work. The combination of the three could come close to 2,000 yards if everyone stays healthy. There isn't anyone with Dantrell Savage's wheels, but all three options can cut and move through the hole and all three should be able to come up with a big play from time to time. However, if Johnson can't handle it 20 times a game for a stretch, none of the backs will be able to. Savage ran 223 times last season, and Hunter and Toston won't be able to do that.
Receivers: It's all about coming up with the big play. OSU recruits to a type getting tall, thin, quick receivers who can stretch the field. Dez Bryant will be excellent and tight end Brandon Pettigrew is a star, but several other key players have to produce early on. Damian Davis has to be the home run hitter the coaches expect he can be, and at least one of the redshirt freshmen or new recruits have to surprise early on. This will be a good corps in time, but there isn't any proven production among the older wide receivers, and the top prospects are all sophomores or younger. There isn't an Adarius Bowman who'll keep defensive coordinators up at night, however, Pettigrew probably would've been the first tight end taken in the 2008 NFL Draft had he come out early, and he'll certainly be considered in the Top 30 next year. OSU has to revolve the passing game around him and let everyone else try to make deep plays.
Offensive Line: The line was great two years ago, and then it took things to another level, giving up only 22 sacks, the third fewest in the nation, and paved the way for the nation's eighth best (and Big 12's leading) running game. Now it'll be even better with everyone returning, led by tackles Russell Okung and Brady Bond, depth at every spot and the potential for another dominant season. And here's the scary part: There are only two seniors on the two-deep. Not only do five starters (depending on the lineups you want to go by) return, but there's depth at every spot. From Andrew Mitchell and Trent Perkins at tackle to Jonathan Rush and Noah Franklin at guard, to all the options at center, the second team would be good enough to start for most teams.
Defense
Defensive coordinator Tim Beckman is on a bit of a hot seat. He has the athletes to work with, and now he has to come up with some production. The Cowboys will use a combination of a 4-3 and a 4-2-5 as Andre Sexton moves around in the star position, but the real key will be the play against the run. There has to be better toughness up front against the stronger teams, and more of a pass rush would be nice with an average, but fast secondary returning several good players like CB Jacob Lacey and S Rickey Price. In influx of JUCO talent could make a night and day difference with Swanson Miller and Jeremiah Price for the line, Donald Booker for the linebacking corps, and Lucien "The Punisher" Antoine for the secondary.
Defensive Line: No job is safe on a defensive front that struggled so much last year, and Swanson Miller, a JUCO all-star, could take over a tackle spot on Day 1. There's decent promise and a lot of hope for several young players to come through, but this could be a year of transition before a big 2009. This doesn't have to be a spectacular group, but it has to be more than just serviceable. While the final stats against the run weren't that bad, the line gave up big yards to Texas and Oklahoma and allowed the secondary to get bombed on after not getting into the backfield enough. Generating consistent pressure is a must. The line didn't do enough to get into the backfield, and it struggled against the better rushing teams. The key will be to get to the quarterback on a regular basis, and there can't be so many big plays allowed against the top backs.
Linebackers: Can the group start to make plays against the run? A big-time disappointment last season considering all the returning talent, the linebacking corps now is a question mark with several unproven players needing to shine through early on. Assume Andre Sexton is a linebacker at the star position to add a veteran presence to the group, but there will be stretches when the defense is in a 4-2-5 alignment. Patrick Lavine is a rock-solid defender with the type of versatility needed to play several different spots. He's a good talent who gets lost in the all-conference shuffle, but he's as good in pass coverage as any linebacker in the Big 12.
Secondary: The secondary has tremendous athleticism and several good players, but they didn't do nearly enough against the pass. Texas Tech bombed away for 646 yards and five scores. Kansas State threw for 404 yards and three touchdowns. Overall, OSU finished dead last in the Big 12 in pass defense and didn't do much of anything to slow down anyone who could throw. With some good players like Rickey Price and Jacob Lacey to work around, there's no excuse for the secondary to not be better. After picking off a mere 15 in the previous two seasons, the Cowboys got 12 last year with Lacey picking off five of them. This group didn't get much help from the pass rush, but they didn't accomplish much when it had the chance. Three of the interceptions came in a losing cause against Texas.
Special Teams: The placekicking was a disappointment last year, but sophomore Dan Bailey hopes to steady the ship. He only hit two of four field goal chances with the long from 28 yards out, but he has a decent leg that tops out just inside 50 yards. The star of the kicking game is senior Matt Fodge, a rock-solid kicker with a big leg, averaging 42.4 yards per try last season and with a gaudy 42.2 average on 166 kicks. He could do more to put it inside the 20, and he didn't work well with the coverage team, but he's a good one who needs to use his experience to pin teams deep. Cornerback Perrish Cox is a fantastic returner averaging 22.6 yards per kickoff returns over the course of his career and 11.9 yards per punt return. He'll earn plenty of all-star honors and will take at least one kick back for a score.
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