by Dayn Perry

Updated: July 3, 2008, 1:39 PM EST 234 comments

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The successes of the Rays, Cardinals, White Sox and A's have all captured fans' attention. The relative failures of the Yankees, Tigers and Mets have made the big payroll a source of ridicule.

But any discussion of surprises must also include the Minnesota Twins, who have far exceeded expectations at the halfway point of 2008.

The perenially overachievers are currently just 2½ games back of the White Sox in the AL Central and on pace for 90 wins. Needless to say, those results come as something of a shock.

After all, the Twins this winter traded away ace Johan Santana for a return package that was roundly panned, Torii Hunter (who contributed 74 extra-base hits and Gold Glove defense in center) left to sign a high-dollar contract with the Angels, and control artist Carlos Silva inked a free-agent deal with Seattle.

And then there's sub-ace Francisco Liriano — who was dispatched back to the minors after three miserable starts — and reliever Pat Neshek (2.94 ERA in 2007) — was lost for the season after tearing ligaments in his elbow with just 13.1 innings to his credit.

Oh, and all that happened to a club that won just 79 games a year ago.

Given all that, it's fairly stunning that the Twins are in the midst of a stretch that has seen them win 13 out of 15 games to launch themselves into the thick of the postseason race. But can this team of castoffs and call-ups possibly keep it going?

The Twins have thrived thanks to a solid offense (fourth in the AL in runs scored) and a useful bullpen (sixth in the AL in relief ERA). Put another way, they're succeeding in spite of a sub-optimal rotation (10th in the AL in starters' ERA) and a poor team defense (13th in the AL in defensive efficiency, which is a measure of what percentage of balls in play a defense converts into outs).

A pile of runs and a lack of defense — not your typical Twins team.

On a total level, it's worth noting that, according to runs scored and runs allowed, the Twins' record should be three games worse than it is. That doesn't bode particularly well for the future because teams that over-perform relative to their run differentials tend to come back to earth. It's partly because of the run differential that Baseball Prospectus gives the Twins just a 7.1% chance of making the postseason. For comparison's sake, the third-place Tigers have a 15.3% chance, more than twice Minnesota's odds.

On another level, the Twins' seeminglyly aberrant performance in clutch situations is also worrisome. Consider: Minnesota leads the majors in batting average with runners on base and in batting average with the bases loaded. They also rank second the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs, and lead the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position by a full 27 points.

It's the latter fact — that they're hitting .313 with runners in scoring position — that raises eyebrows, especially considering that the Twins are batting .276 in all situations. Most often when you see such a huge disparity between those two figures, it's a matter of luck. It's not likely that the Twins' extraordinary performance with runners in scoring position is going to continue.

Ron Gardenhire has coaxed clutch play out of the Twins but for how long? (Lenny Ignelzi / Associated Press)

There's also a divide between the Twins' offensive performance at the rate level and the number of runs they've scored. Despite their impressive runs total, they're a mere eighth in the AL in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Given their below-average abilities when it comes to reaching base and hitting for power, the Twins have been exceedingly lucky to score as many runs as they have. They've made up the difference, as indicated above, by thriving in clutch situations. Whether you believe in the theoretical concept of "clutch" or not, it's almost impossible to imagine they'll able to keep that up.

Sure, there's a lot to like about this Twins team. They have the best all-around catcher in baseball, a skilled manager and a deeply resourceful organization. If disappointing young hitters like Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez step it up in the second half, if Liriano comes back and contributes, and if Michael Cuddyer and Adam Everett come back from injury and start hitting, then the Twins can pull off the minor miracle.

But that's a lot of ifs standing in the way of a postseason run, and with the statistics signalling an anomaly, the offense is almost certain to decline.

In other words, Twins fans shouldn't expect this to last.