Seven reasons Celtics are facing a Game 7

by Mike Kahn

Updated: May 3, 2008, 1:10 AM EST 129 comments

New Orleans-Dallas — absolutely a possibility considering their history, but the Hornets snuffed out the Mavs in five, too.

Cleveland-Washington also had a chance considering it's the third year in a row they've met, only to see the Cavs complete the trifecta against the blowhard Wizards — this time in six.

But Boston and Atlanta going seven games — the prestigious top-seeded Celtics with a league-best 66 wins against the much-maligned, 37-win Hawks? The chances of that happening were about the same as Hillary and Barack sharing the presidential ticket.

And yet, on the heels of the Hawks' stunning 103-100 win over the Celtics on Friday night, we're headed back to Boston on Sunday for a Game 7. If the Hawks pull it out, it would be the biggest series upset in the history of the NBA. Is it plausible? That's a tough question to ask and even tougher to answer considering we never in our wildest dreams believed we would get to this point.

So let's punk out with a maybe. At any rate, this is only the second time in history a No. 1 seed has been taken this far by a No. 8.

Congratulations to coach Mike Woodson for taking your guys to a seventh game, the first time the Hawks have even been in the playoffs this century. Everybody knew they were talented. What we didn't know was how fast they would grow up over the past couple of weeks.

Fittingly, here are seven reasons why it has come to this for coach Doc Rivers and his Celtics, when everybody figured this would be over days ago.

1. The Hawks are young and much more athletic than the Celtics. Once the Hawks woke up in Game 3 at home after getting pummeled in the first two games in Boston, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith both realized nobody on the Celtics could guard them. Give them some room, and these guys could score almost at will against what was the best defense in the NBA during the regular season. Give Woodson credit for recognizing the mismatches. Consequently, Johnson averaged 29.0 and Smith 27.5 in Games 3 and 4 to even the series at 2-2.

2. Because the Celtics are having so much trouble guarding the likes of Johnson, Smith, Marvin Williams and Josh Childress, the Hawks have been parading to the free-throw line. That the Hawks are converting 78.9 percent of their foul shots compared to 76.7 for the Celtics is only a part of the equation. Their 36-of-47 from the line compared to 20-of-25 for the Celtics Friday night was no aberration. For the series, the Hawks have made more free throws than the Celtics have attempted. They're 161-of-204 compared to 102-of-133 for Boston. That's an average of 26.8-of-34.0 per game for Atlanta as opposed to Boston's 17.0-of-22.2. It's tough to overcome a nearly 10-point-a-game deficit at the line.

3. The Hawks sank only one 3-pointer in the game, but it was Johnson with 1:06 remaining who hit the big shot that gave Atlanta what proved to be an insurmountable five-point lead over the confused Celtics. He's been hitting clutch shots all season and all series for them. A quiet All-Star and an Olympian this summer, the 6-7, 225-pounder is physically the closest all-around player in the next level behind Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Perhaps his personality is now evolving so he can consistently perform that way. He's averaging 20.8 points, 4.6 assists and 4.0 rebounds in the series.

4. It's easy to say the home teams have each won three games, but there is a distinct difference. The Celtics' wins have all been blowouts — margins of victory that totaled 23, 19 and 25 for an average of 22.3. The Hawks have won by an average of 5.7 points, with wins of 9, 5 and 3 points — each win getting closer. The Hawks know where they want to go with the ball down the stretch ... it's in Johnson's hands, and he's either getting a great shot or a good one for somebody else. The Celtics had no clue where to go with the ball Friday as young point guard Rajon Rondo came up the floor down the stretch. With three All-Stars, who gets it between Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen? Veteran gunner Sam Cassell was in the game too. Nobody was in position to do anything down the stretch as they were in frantic mode. The lack of poise these stars showed was stunning, with Pierce fouling out and getting a technical for throwing his headband in the final minutes.

5. The pressure is getting to the Celtics, as is evidenced by them blowing double-digits leads in all three losses. None of the three superstars has ever played in the Finals, and Cassell hasn't been there since 1994 and 1995, his first two seasons in the league with Houston. The trio has spent all season deferring to each other, trying not to be selfish and to mesh the team. It's worked well. But now that they're in the series of their lives, they are loaded with uncertainty. When they were in rhythm and caught the Hawks flat, they exploded to the big leads with the crowd behind them in Boston. They failed in Atlanta. That's not to say the Hawks will be able to handle it in Boston, but they have no pressure. They are young and don't know any better than to just play ball. Nobody expected them to be in this position anyway, so they can let it fly and if they get off to a good start in Game 7, the pressure will continue to mount on the Celtics.

6. With Allen and Pierce leading the way, plus Cassell and Eddie House coming off the bench, they are a far superior 3-point shooting team. But as a result of that, the Celtics tend to fall in love with the trey and it isn't a cliché that teams that live and die by the jump shot ultimately die. Garnett scores in the post and so does Pierce, but they too often settle for jump shots. Johnson, Smith, Childress and Williams are all good jump-shooters too, but they prefer to attack the rim — thus the free-throw differential and ability to make plays down the stretch.

7. Mike Woodson is outcoaching Doc Rivers during the games. Woodson is clearly making adjustments and creating mismatches, and Rivers has been slow to react. When he allowed the defensive-challenged and 33-year-old Allen to suffer through guarding Johnson's 35-point outburst (20 in the fourth quarter) in Game 4, it left many an observer incredulous with a bigger, young and much more defensively inclined James Posey available. He went to Posey in Game 5 and threw more traps at Johnson, and his 21 points were much more difficult to come by in a 25-point loss in Boston. Again, why did it take all of Game 4 to figure it out? They could have secured a commanding 3-1 lead with some faster recognition.

Consider any of those reasons, and it would be simple to make a case for the Hawks to win Game 7, except for one simple flaw — they haven't been able to play the Celtics close in Boston. At some point, they will mature for the play at home to translate on the road ... we just don't know if they're equipped to pull it off by Sunday or not.