The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which monitored the parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan this Saturday, found them a step forward toward democracy. This is a welcome change from the usual OSCE criticism of voting in the post-Soviet countries.
OSCE has 56 members and focuses on security and democracy. It includes the U.S., Canada, and European and Eurasian countries from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
Voters boosted President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s firm grip on power in the oil-rich state strategically located between Russian and China. The ruling Nur Otan (Light of the Motherland) Party got 88 percent of the vote, securing all 98 contested seats in the legislature. The remaining nine seats are held by the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan, representing ethnic minorities in a country of 100 languages. The Assembly is chaired by Mr. Nazarbayev.
Kazakhstani sources said the real vote for Nur Otan may have been about 10 percent less, but the eager local authorities competed to show President Nazarbayev their loyalty — as they did in the presidential elections of 2005.
The outcome is consistent with the 91 percent of the popular vote in the presidential vote, and provides a clear sign Kazakhstanis are generally content with their leaders. After all, the country’s economy has been growing approximately 10 percent a year since 2000, with results clearly felt in voters’ wallets.
Saturday vote participation was relatively high, with 65 percent of the population going to the polls, 8 percent up from the parliamentary elections of 2004.
The OSCE’s preliminary postelection report noted that some shortcomings remained and a few Council of Europe standards in the pre-election process have not been met. Nevertheless, it praised Kazakhstan for “welcome progress” in a number of important steps forward.
Specifically, the report praised Central Electoral Commission for working “transparently”. The commission has cooperated with all political parties and 16,000 local and foreign observers. The electoral atmosphere was calm, and 400 OSCE observers have praised 95 percent of the polling stations they visited.
There were real choices for voters, with competing parties ranging from communists to social democrats, and from nationalists to free marketers.
Of course, the governing elite, including Mr. Nazarbayev, his young and capable Prime Minister Karim Massimov, the chairman of the upper house of the parliament, Kasymzhomart Tokayev and other leaders all supporting Nur Otan.
OSCE also said state authorities have conducted more democratic elections, while political parties gained increased ability to convey their messages to voters.
There were televised debates between parties on the state-owned Khabar TV, as well as on privately-owned Channel 31. The print media has provided a broad spectrum of opinion, with two government-owned papers favoring Nur Otan but some of the private newspapers pushing the two leading opposition parties, All National Social Democrats and Ak Zhol (Light Path).
The OSCE report has also criticized the government for erecting difficulties for creation of a pluralistic party system. Specifically, it focused on providing preferential treatment for Nur Otan in local electoral commissions; on disallowing independents to run for the parliament; and on a ban against parties uniting in electoral coalitions.
What OSCE has not mentioned was that the opposition — unfortunately — shot itself in the foot. As Kazakhstan has a high electoral threshold of 7 percent, it would have made sense for Social Democrats and Akh Zhol to unite. Their platforms are not that different from each other. Nor are they that far from the ruling Nur Otan. After all, the leaders of the opposition all are former senior officials under Mr. Nazarbayev, including his ex-prosecutor general, the former finance minister and former chief of staff. These are all secular, sensible and responsible people who want what is good for their country. Separately, the two leading opposition parties have failed to clear the barrier. Together, they got more than 7 percent and would have been in the Majilis.
Saturday’s vote for stability is strategically important for energy-rich Kazakhstan, its powerful neighbors Russia and China, and for the United States.
Last week, Mr. Nazarbayev participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit with China’s President Hu Jintao and the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Then the leaders flew to Russia to watch the unprecedented maneuvers of the SCO militaries, in which Chinese troops for the first time exercised on foreign — Russian — territory. The scent of the new Warsaw Pact is in the air.
Russia is flexing its oil-fed muscle from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean once again. Mr. Putin has just announced a $250 billion dollar military modernization and ordered Russian strategic bombers to resume worldwide patrols, clearly aimed at challenging U.S. military superiority. He welcomes the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the SCO summits. Kazakhstan is in a narrow spot, engaged in a balancing act.
As a part of this geopolitical high stakes juggling number, Russia cannot be ignored. Earlier this year, Mr. Nazarbayev and Mr. Putin flew to Turkmenistan to secure the supply of Turkmen gas via Kazakhstan to Russia, giving the country a handsome cut in transit fees.
Relations with the United States are also important for Kazakhstan. Last year, Mr. Nazarbayev came to Washington and had a good visit with President Bush at the White House. He signed an agreement to supply Kazakh oil to the U.S.-supported Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan by a Kazakh tanker fleet on the Caspian.
President Nazarbayev hosted Mr. Hu over the weekend, and signed energy agreements, which expand its oil and gas pipeline networks to energy-starved, fast-growing China.
Some Russian experts immediately discerned that Mr. Nazarbayev is playing Moscow against Beijing. They blamed Mr. Nazarbayev for tilting too close to Beijing, just as several years ago they blamed him for being too pro-American. In reality, though, Mr. Nazarbayev is, well… pro-Nazarbayev. He is definitely pro-Kazakhstan.
As his country is aspiring to chair OSCE in 2009, a relatively clean election that demonstrates high popular support is crucial. Come November, the improvement in election performance should be positively noted by those who decide if Kazakhstan is to achieve its coveted goal.
Ariel Cohen is senior research fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and international energy security at the Heritage Foundation and author of “Eurasia in Balance” (Ashgate, 2005) and “Kazakhstan: Energy Cooperation with Russia — Oil, Gas and Beyond” (GMB, 2006).
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