After the damp morning practice, during which Dani Pedrosa finally pipped Casey Stoner to the post setting the fastest time in the dying seconds of the session, the big question in the afternoon was whether the Pedrosa could repeat this during qualifying, or whether Stoner would dominate as he had on Friday. It was a question Stoner seemed determined to answer in a hurry. He went straight to the top of the timesheets on his 2nd lap, and by lap 4, he was close to the previous pole record pace, with a time of 1'22.082, less than 7 minutes into the session.
Under normal circumstances, that time would have stood for most of qualifying, while the riders worked on their race setup, before breaking out the soft qualifiying rubber. But the possibility of showers disrupting practice meant that a number of riders took a very early qualifier, gambling that such a move could pay off if the rain started to fall for real. Alex de Angelis, Randy de Puniet and Colin Edwards all took a very early qualifier, with Edwards taking provisional pole well before the halfway mark, with a lap of 1'21.794.
Worryingly for Edwards, that time was only 0.2 seconds faster than the 1'21.996 set by Casey Stoner, in the middle of a long run on race tires. Qualifiers can generally be relied on to take close to a second off of your best time, so Edwards' 0.2 second advantage was looking more like a 0.8 second deficit, once Stoner got serious.
With 20 minutes to go, Casey Stoner did just that. His first outing on qualifiers netted provisional pole with a lap of 1'21.666, but there was a great deal more to come. Stoner had already gone quicker than this on race tires on Friday, and so qualifiers should see him even quicker.
While Stoner was back in the pits for fresh rubber, the first assaults were staged on his supremacy. Valentino Rossi was the first to take a shot, being fast round the first half of the track, before losing out in the latter parts, forced to settle for the 3rd fastest time with a 1'21.845. He was followed by Nicky Hayden, who suffered a similar fate. Quick through the first three sectors, Hayden lost a lot of time in the last part of the track, only managing the 4th fastest time. After a brief visit to the pits, Rossi was out once more, and once more, his lap followed the same pattern: quick in the first part of the track, the Fiat Yamaha man was considerably slower through the section climbing up the hill, then sweeping back down it towards the two final left handers, finishing off the pace.
Once Stoner rolled back out on the track, he left no doubt about his intentions. Where others slowed through each of the sections, Stoner just got faster, from a small advantage in section 1, the Australian building speed through each section to end the lap over 3/10ths faster, at 1'21.330.
Dani Pedrosa was the first man to get close to Stoner's time, but unfortunately, he was only close to Stoner's 2nd fastest lap, the Spaniard taking 2nd place with a lap of 1'21.692. But Stoner had more to come. With 3 minutes left in the session, the reigning World Champion laid down the law with his final qualifier. Another lap took another 3/10ths off his time, and a lap of 1'21.067, just short of breaking into the 1'20s. The rest of the field knew what they had to do.
And plenty of people were trying. In the dying seconds of the session, there were large numbers of riders out on hot laps, giving the grid a final shake out. But the bar had been set high. Rider after rider improved their time, but it wasn't pole swapping hands all the time, it was 2nd place on the grid. As the clock ticked down, first Andrea Dovizioso, then Colin Edwards, and finally Dani Pedrosa shot across the line with fast times, each claiming 2nd place from their successor, with Pedrosa once again the victor in that fight.
As good as Pedrosa's time was, it was still over 3/10ths behind Stoner, at 1'21.420. But at least Dani Pedrosa will start on the front row, and as the best starter of the field, he has a very good chance to get the run into the first corner, and at least having a chance to try and repeat his runaway race from the front of last year. With Stoner on pole and Pedrosa beside him, it could get very crowded going into the first turn.
Colin Edwards took the final spot on the front row. Edwards has been fairly quick all weekend, and has decent race pace. But the Yamahas are not as good off the line as the Hondas and the Ducatis - or at least, the Ducati of Casey Stoner, and Edwards will have to hope that Stoner and Pedrosa can get in each others' way for the first lap, giving him a chance to catch up.
Andrea Dovizioso heads up the 2nd row, the Italian Honda rider always good at the Sachsenring. His race pace doesn't look as good as Stoner's or Pedrosa's, however, and he may struggle to stay with the front two. Besides Dovizioso is Jorge Lorenzo, who has been improving throughout the weekend. It's hard to say what Lorenzo will do, as he gets faster each session, we just don't know by how much. Lorenzo is very much a dark horse at the moment.
Randy de Puniet fills out the 2nd row, the French LCR Honda rider starting from 6th. De Puniet, like Alex de Angelis, who is starting from down in 10th, has been surprisingly quick, and could well be competitive. However, like de Angelis, he will have to stay on board. Both men have a reputation for crashing, and that's very easy to do at this highly technical Sachsenring circuit.
Valentino Rossi looks to be in trouble. Last year, Rossi was forced to start from 6th, and crashed out while trying to force his way past Randy de Puniet, and chase Casey Stoner and Dani Pedrosa. This year, he starts a position lower, and again, behind de Puniet. He will have to keep his nerve, and try and edge his way through the field, hoping that Stoner and Pedrosa can hold each other up. Rossi's race pace is good, but still behind that of Stoner and Pedrosa, and the Italian will need to find some improvements during warmup tomorrow.
Nicky Hayden sits beside Valentino Rossi, the Kentucky Kid not getting the improvements he needs from the pneumatic valved Honda RC212V. Hayden's pace on race tires is not good enough to stick with the front runners, and he will need something extra tomorrow.
The Gresini Hondas are in 9th and 10th, Shinya Nakano filling out the 3rd row, while Alex de Angelis heads up the 4th. This is particularly tough on Alex de Angelis, as the San Marino rider has consistently been the 2nd fastest rider in free practice. But de Angelis could not get the extra pace he needed from his qualifying tires, and slipped a long way down the grid. On race tires, de Angelis is very fast, and if he can cut through the field quickly, could well be in the running for a podium. But he has a lot of work to do.
At first glance, tomorrow's race looks like just another walkover for Casey Stoner. But the times on race tires tell a slightly different story. If Dani Pedrosa can get a good start, and get ahead of Stoner on the first lap, Stoner could have a fight on his hands to get past the Spaniard. And if takes too much time to get past, then there are lots of people coming through from behind who could challenge for the lead. And even if he does get through, Pedrosa could certainly challenge the Australian for a few laps, and make his life difficult. The race could be closer than we might think.
And that's just if it stays dry. There's still a chance of rain tomorrow, with a weather front sitting within a few miles of the track, and passing mostly to the South. But if the weather front drifts just a little bit further North, then the race could be soaked, and then it's all open again. We'll know for sure by this time tomorrow.