We may freeze — or maybe roast in the next year. Opinions are running hot and cold among weather prognosticators for the almanacs.
The Farmers’ Almanac announced yesterday that a fierce winter looms for many. The Old Farmer’s Almanac, however, predicts the nation will wallow in record-setting temperatures.
Punxsutawney Phil could not be reached for comment.
“These predictions are a tradition in America. Weather is something we all have in common. We love hearing about it, and we love to talk about it,” said Brian Wimer, senior meteorologist for Accuweather, which provides information to news organizations, government and industry sources.
Indeed, many of us are obsessed by our daily weather fix. In the past two decades, only news of war and terrorism has eclipsed our interest in weather news, according to a Pew Research Center analysis released Wednesday.
“People also really love it when weather forecasts are wrong,” Mr. Wimer said. “That’s part of it. When forecasters make mistakes, we try not to take it personally. We learn from it. Unexpected things happen in this field. Besides, there’s always new weather and a new forecast tomorrow.”
Right or wrong, the opposing almanacs are adamant about their predictions, and both claim their forecasts are 80 percent to 85 percent accurate.
“We do feel overall that Mother Nature is showing no mercy in the East, and being a little more forgiving in the West,” said Peter Geiger, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, founded in Maine in 1818.
Everybody east of the Mississippi will get hammered by a harsh winter with temperatures at least 3 degrees below normal. Out West, the weather will “seesaw” between a mix of winter and more tranquil seasonal norms.
The predictions are more in line with Al Gore’s thinking at the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac.
“Very warm, overall,” said John Pierce, publisher of the 215-year-old compendium of handy advice and homespun philosophy.
“The past nine years have been among the 25 warmest years, and based on our study of solar activity and cycles, we expect the warming trend to continue,” Mr. Pierce said.
That trend mirrors the seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, which calls for “an enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures for most of the continental U.S.”
The federal agency, meanwhile, took the predictions of Punxsutawney Phil to task last year in a study comparing the Pennsylvania groundhog’s spring weather forecast with average national monthly temperatures between 1988 and 2005.
“The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis,” the study said.
“It really isn’t a ‘bright’ idea to take a measure such as a groundhog’s shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.”
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