The second half of the NBA season was a joke. Half the teams were tanking for the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant sweepstakes, while the other half were fighting for playoff position. We had players like Memphis' Tarence Kinsey lighting it up down the homestretch, while the likes of Paul Pierce sat out with questionable injuries. Now, the true season starts up, but before I get to my infallible predictions, let's hand out some postseason awards.
MVP: Dirk Nowitzki
About a month ago, I wrote in this space what I thought was conclusive evidence on why Nowitzki should win it. What happened? All the feedback I received opposed my viewpoint. Look, both Nowitzki and Nash had highs compared to the year before, both teams won more games than last year, and if I'm starting a team today, I take Nash over Nowitzki. But if we're talking about who is the most valuable, however, Nash has Leandro Barbosa, and although Barbosa may not be the playmaker that Nash is, he is certainly capable of filling it up and the Phoenix offense allows others to distribute; case in point, Boris Diaw.
Who fills it up once Nowitzki comes out of the game? Jason Terry? Josh Howard? Neither one can create their own shot, and neither one demands the attention that Nowitzki earns. Nash is never double-teamed; in fact, the philosophy is let him get his points and you have a chance.
This is not to downplay the year Nash has had. I've seen him a couple of times in person and he makes so many things happen that don't show up on the stat sheet. The point I am making, however, is Dallas is the best team, record-wise, in the NBA, Nowitzki is the best player on that team, and on most nights, he is unstoppable; put a small guy on him, he posts them up, put a big guy on him, he takes them to the bucket. He is the MVP.
Coach of the Year: Sam Mitchell
Can you name the last time a team went from the first pick in the NBA draft to a top-three seed in the NBA playoffs? Don't worry, I'll wait. Got it ... since the advent of the lottery ... never! Since Patrick Ewing was picked up by the Knicks in 1985, only four teams made the playoffs that year. Orlando had the highest seed before this year with a four seed in the 1993-94 season. If that year sounds familiar, it's when the Magic produced some and got the top pick back to back years, forming a duo that was pretty impressive until Shaquille O'Neal left Penny Hardaway and headed to the West Coast.
What does all this prove? Sam Mitchell has done a hell of a job with Toronto. Behind the tour de force that is Chris Bosh, many experts feel as though the Raptors could do some damage in their first year back in the playoffs since Vince Carter's exodus. Regardless, Mitchell has done an unbelievable job as a lame duck coach installing a new offense and watching it flourish.
Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Camby
It's an absolute marvel when Camby plays for the majority of the year. When he does, you see why Toronto picked him second in the 1996 draft. Playing in 70 games this year, Camby redirected almost every shot that came in the paint with a league-leading 3.3 blocks per game. The UMass Alum also hauled down 11.7 rebounds per game only, less than a board off the league high. What do these numbers add up to? Defensive player of the year honors.
Most Improved Player: Kevin Martin
When a player goes from 10 points per game to 20 points per game and only averages nine more minutes, I'd say that's a pretty darn good improvement. Martin also averaged highs in every statistical category the NBA jots down — not too shabby.
Sixth Man: Leandro Barbosa
As I said in my MVP debate, Barbosa allows the aging Steve Nash to get much-needed rest and lose hardly anything on the offensive or defensive end. I know it's not saying much, but Barbosa is a better defender than the two-time MVP, and they averaged right around the same points per game, Barbosa at 18.1 and Nash at 18.6. In no shape or form am I trying to say Barbosa can hold a candle to Nash — that's ridiculous — but Barbosa could start on half the teams in the NBA.
Rookie of the Year: Brandon Roy
Had Andrea Bargnani not gotten injured, this could have been a hotly-contested race, but he did, and Brandon Roy was amazing.
On to the predictions...
Western Conference
No. 1 Dallas vs. No. 8 Golden State
Everybody's talking about how this one is all about Don Nelson vs. his old team, and how Nellie owned the Mavericks in the regular season, posting an undefeated record against Dallas. The difference is this is the playoffs and the Mavs have the MVP. Golden State can go small and take out Dallas' defenders down low, but it won't matter; Howard, Terry, and Nowitzki will lead the Mavericks into the second round, easily.
Dallas wins, 4-1.
No. 2 Phoenix vs. No. 7 L.A. Lakers
Ah, the pride of last year's opening round. Everyone remembers the seven-game epic from last year. The 3-1 Laker lead, Tim Thomas' three to send it to a Game 6, and the choke job the Lakers pulled in Game 7. There are some similarities between last year and this year. Phil Jackson is still the coach of the Lakers and is the best in the biz at getting the most out of his players in the playoffs. Kobe Bryant is the best player in the game.
The problems, however, outweigh the positives. The Lakers have beaten one team with a winning record in the last six weeks. Phoenix has an inside presence in Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas, two players who were not available last season. All this leads to the Suns blazing a trail to the second round.
Phoenix wins, 4-2.
No. 3 San Antonio vs. No. 6 Denver
Before the Allen Iverson trade, I stated whoever got A.I. would make it to the conference finals. But just my luck, they drew the Spurs in the first round. San Antonio is and will always be dangerous as long as they have a healthy Tim Duncan and a sane Greg Popovich. The Spurs have an uncanny ability to flex some major muscle every time the playoffs come around. This year's no different, but they are, however, one year older.
Denver boasts two low post all-around threats in Nené and Marcus Camby, three role players, J.R. Smith, Steve Blake, and Linas Kleiza, and two all-worlds, Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. Talk about dangerous. You can put Bruce Bowen on one, but not both, and Nené and Camby clean up better than the maid service at the local Hilton. I'm putting a little rattle snake in the cage on this one. Denver steals one in San Antonio.
Denver wins, 4-2.
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Houston
Utah has no answer for a healthy Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. Not to mention Shane Battier, Juwan Howard, Dikembe Mutombo, Chuck Hayes, Rafer Alston, and Luther Head. This team has all the pieces to be dangerous. The problem is they face Jerry Sloan, one of the best coaches in the game. The issue for Utah lies in the backcourt where Deron Williams faces his first playoff action. Alston will annoy Williams to submission and help the Rockets walk away in a dog fight.
Houston wins, 4-3.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit vs. No. 8 Orlando
The Central Division owns the East. Detroit owns the Central Division. Experience wins in the playoffs. Detroit has experience, Orlando has none. I wasn't a whiz in math, but I'd say that equates to an easy Detroit first-round victory.
Detroit wins, 4-0.
2) Cleveland vs. 7) Washington
See above. Add Washington, sans Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Get it? Good.
Cleveland wins, 4-0.
No. 3 Toronto vs. No. 6 New Jersey
Just like the Dallas/Golden State series, this one is full of sub-plots. Canada vs. America. Vince Carter vs. His Old Team. Young vs. Old.
Toronto loves to run and the Raptors are built for speed. The only problem, besides Steve Nash, is there is only one other point guard in the league who can run and gun with the best of them, and his name is Jason Kidd. Throw in Vince Carter and a Richard Jefferson, who is getting his groove back, and you have a three-headed monster that can cause trouble to a Toronto team making its first visit to the postseason in a long time.
Both are hot going into the playoffs. New Jersey went 8-2. Toronto went 7-3. So what do you do when it can go either way? You go with the vets.
New Jersey wins, 4-2.
No. 4 Miami vs. No. 5 Chicago
The defending champs are in a state of flux. Without Dwyane Wade, the Heat slowed things down and went down low to Shaq, which was very effective. Now Wade is back and getting stronger, so what do they do: go with what got you the title, or go with what's working now? That's why Pat Riley gets paid the big bucks. Unlike last year's series with the Bulls, Chicago is a year wiser and a year stronger. Which is why I think last year's experience will prove to be the difference. Add to that an 80% Heat team and the defending champs go down in the first round.
Chicago wins, 4-3.
The second round looks like this:
No. 1 Dallas vs. No. 5 Houston, No. 2 Phoenix vs. No. 6 Denver
No. 1 Detroit vs. No. 5 Chicago, No. 2 Cleveland vs. No. 6 New Jersey
Enjoy, and I'll see you in October after the first round ends.
April 23, 2007
Jordon:
Let me get this straight. Becasue Nash has a better supporting cast, he does not deserve the MVP? Because Cuban can not get another big player that can play a good consistant season, Dirk wins? Are you out of your mind? More people on the Suns have had career stats this year because of Nash. Who did Dirk help have a career year? Basketball is a team sport, and the person who helps the TEAM the most should win. Clearly that is Nash. I think you are just looking for an excuse, any excuse not to give Nash his third MVP.
April 23, 2007
Bret:
You have completed underestimated Nash, and I will give undeniable proof that barbosa can’t actually easily repalace him. The suns are plus 12 with Nash on the floor, which is nearly double the plus 7 they ware with Barbosa. The Suns average margin of points for and points against is about 7, so Nash is plus 5 over what is the team norm and Barbosa is plus 0. When Nash missed 4 games in a row, Phoenix lost 3 with Barbosa, not mention they lost by double-digits twice which they hadn’t done even once in over 50 straight games. Sorry, but Nash is much more important to the Suns then the Mavs. By your own argument, Dallas is 3-0 without Dirk. Dallas has a lot of talented players and is the deepest team in the league. Ironically, while Nash has the best plus minus on his team, Dirk doesn’t - It’s actually Harris by a +3 margin. Don’t let me get into offensive and rebounding statistics either. Nash is more efficient with an adjusted FG% of nearly 9% higher than Dirk - it’s actually the highest in the entire NBA among everyone including all the 7-footers who get easy dunks. Also Drik ranks ONLY 9th in the West in rebounds for his position while Nash rank 1st in the West for his position. So Nash has a much bigger impact at his position than Dirk does at his. I really could on for pages, but I’m trying to keep this post relatively short. Please counter my argument if you something better.